1 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. 2 00:00:08,640 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 2: Very important headlines out and they moved the market. How 3 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 2: did you're the fetish? 4 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:16,600 Speaker 3: Assessing what's happening with these terrifs with Lisa Mittel on market. 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:20,079 Speaker 4: The economic calendar jam pack today and Michael Barr. 6 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 5: With new President Trump is questioning Russian leader Vladimir Butin's 7 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 5: actions the. 8 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: Best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 9 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. 10 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 6: On Bloomberg Radio, YouTube and Bloomberg Originals. 11 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 2: Good morning everyone, A special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance is 12 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 2: Sunday for you across America around the world. The Bloomberg 13 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 2: News headline out right now. Iran reserves all options after 14 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 2: US hits nuclear sites. Welcome to our coverage for the 15 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 2: next four hours here. We've been working on it all 16 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 2: night to bring you the best and conversation here. Terry 17 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 2: Hayes will join us on the Pulse of Washington. Other 18 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 2: good guests as well. Importantly, Nathan Hager in moments will 19 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 2: come to us with an update. We'll do that often 20 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 2: here as the news moves. We have voices from London 21 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 2: and Moments to Ethan Brodner in Tel Aviv, and of 22 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 2: course all of our usual Bloomberg news and Bloomberg surveillance 23 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 2: sources with me on a Sunday is Paul Sweeney. Paul, 24 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 2: the shock of those headlines last night. It was a 25 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:26,960 Speaker 2: calm before the storm. 26 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 4: It was. 27 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 3: And you know, President Trump had been out with some 28 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 3: statements or later last week saying, you know, basically up 29 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 3: to two weeks he may consider some strikes against Iran, 30 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 3: and then of course came out last night with some 31 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 3: serious strikes against the nuclear facilities here with some of 32 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 3: the biggest ordinance that the US has, and we'll see 33 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 3: what kind of response. 34 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 5: We get from Moran in the days coming forward. 35 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 2: The Tea Live go on the Bloomberg terminal is my 36 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 2: major source for newsflow and aggregation of all that's going 37 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 2: on out there. Good morning to Roslyn Matheson in London 38 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 2: driving that coverage with Golnar Mountevali as well. We will 39 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 2: go to conversations, but the new slow right now is 40 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 2: so thick, so dense, that we will often go to 41 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 2: Washington to Nathan Hagar for an update here with nine 42 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 2: nine one FM in Washington. 43 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 7: Nathan Hager, Tom Paul Good morning. It is potentially the 44 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 7: most consequential foreign policy decision of President Trump's time in office. 45 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 7: As we've been reporting, the President has authorized American bombers 46 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 7: to strike Iran's three main nuclear sites. The President announced 47 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 7: the attack first on social media and then in an 48 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 7: address to the nation from the White House. Here are 49 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 7: the President's remarks in full, as heard across Bloomberg last night. 50 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 6: A short time ago, the US military carried out massive 51 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 6: precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the 52 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 6: Iranian regime for Doeau, Natanz, and s Fahan. Everybody heard 53 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 6: those names for years as they built this horribly destructive enterprise. 54 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:10,679 Speaker 6: Our objective was the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity 55 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 6: and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the 56 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 6: world's number one state sponsor of terror. Tonight, I can 57 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 6: report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular 58 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:28,119 Speaker 6: military success. Iran's key nuclear and Richmond facilities have been 59 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 6: completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, 60 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 6: must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks 61 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 6: would be far greater and a lot easier. For forty years, 62 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 6: Iran has been saying death to America. Death to Israel. 63 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 6: They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, 64 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 6: blowing off their legs with roadside bombs. That was their specialty. 65 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 6: We lost over a thousand people, and hundreds of thousands 66 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 6: throughout the Middle East and around the world have died 67 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 6: as a direct result of their hate. In particular, so 68 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 6: many were killed by their General Cassem Solomoni. I decided 69 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 6: a long time ago that I would not let this happen. 70 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 6: It will not continue. I want to thank and congratulate 71 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 6: Prime Minister bb Net Yahoo. We worked as a team 72 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 6: like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we've 73 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 6: gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel. 74 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 6: I want to thank the Israeli military for the wonderful 75 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 6: job they've done. And most importantly, I want to congratulate 76 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 6: the great American patriots who flew those magnificent machines tonight, 77 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 6: and all of the United States military on an operation 78 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 6: the likes of which the world has not seen in many, 79 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 6: many decades. Hopefully we will no longer need their services 80 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 6: and this capacity. I hope that's so. I also want 81 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 6: to congratulate the Chairman of the Joint chiefs of Staff, 82 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 6: General Dan Raisin Kane, spectacular General and all of the 83 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 6: brilliant military minds involved in this attack. With all of 84 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 6: that being said, this cannot continue. There will be either 85 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 6: peace or there will be tragedy. For I ran far 86 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 6: greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, 87 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 6: there are many targets left. The nights was the most 88 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 6: difficult of them all by far, and perhaps the most lethal. 89 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 6: But if peace does not come quickly, we will go 90 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 6: after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Most 91 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 6: of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. 92 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 6: There's no military in the world that could have done 93 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 6: what we did tonight, not even closed. There has never 94 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 6: been a military that could do what took place just. 95 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 2: A little while ago. 96 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 6: Tomorrow, General Kine, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will have 97 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 6: a press conference at eight am at the Pentagon. And 98 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 6: I want to just thank every and in particular God. 99 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 6: I want to just say, we love you God, and 100 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 6: we'll love our great military. Protect them. God bless the 101 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 6: Middle East, God bless Israel, and God bless America. 102 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 2: Thank you very much. 103 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 7: And that was President Trump speaking from the White House 104 00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:22,599 Speaker 7: last night alongside Vice President JD. Van, Secretary of State 105 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:26,559 Speaker 7: Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. As we get 106 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 7: more of a sense of what was carried out in 107 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,280 Speaker 7: the overnight hours, the New York Times is reporting that 108 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 7: six B two bombers dropped a dozen bunker buster bombs 109 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 7: on Iran's underground at nuclear site in Fourdah, the same 110 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:43,040 Speaker 7: weapons the Times as reporting were dropped on Natan's cruise. 111 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 7: Missiles were fired at Natan's and the third site at 112 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 7: Isfahan as well. The Associated Press says this morning that 113 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 7: satellite images do show damage to the entries at Fordoh 114 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 7: and the surrounding mountain side. And now, the US intelligence 115 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 7: community had recently assessed that Iran was not committed to 116 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 7: developing a nuclear weapon, and of course President Trump just 117 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 7: days ago had said he would give Iran within two 118 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 7: weeks before he made a decision to carry out that strike, 119 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 7: But the President had said he did not believe the 120 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 7: intelligence community's advice. This morning, Iran is vowing to respond. 121 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 7: There have been sirens and explosions heard across Israel this morning, 122 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 7: as the Israeli military says Iran has fired more missiles 123 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 7: at Israel overnight. Meantime, the Times is reporting that Iran's 124 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 7: medium range missile stockpile is depleted. Iran's Foreign minister Abos 125 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 7: Arakchi says the door to diplomacy is no longer open. 126 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 7: He plans to travel to Moscow today to meet with 127 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 7: Russian President Vladimir Putin. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington, Tom 128 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 7: and Paul back time. 129 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 2: Nathan, thank you so much. We'll be hearing from mister 130 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 2: Hagar often here across our four hours this morning. Again, 131 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 2: we're fifty minutes or so away from an important briefing 132 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 2: by the Secretary of Defense and I believe the Chairman 133 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 2: of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is two ten 134 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 2: pm in Tel Aviv. Changed Israel. We are advantaged by 135 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 2: Ethan Browner with us leading all of our coverage out 136 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 2: of the Middle East from Tel Aviv. Ethan, thank you 137 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 2: so much for joining us here on an exceptional Sunday. 138 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 2: How is Israel changed this morning? 139 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 8: Well, morning, Tom, morning, Paul. 140 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 4: Look, Israel feels the sense in the air on television, 141 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 4: radio and people on the street as an enormous gratitude, 142 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 4: incredible sense of excitement, the belief that this. 143 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 8: Very very powerful. 144 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,599 Speaker 4: Threat that had been hanging over this country's head for 145 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 4: a long time. If it hasn't been eliminated, it has 146 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 4: been very badly damaged. And in fact we're waiting both 147 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 4: the Israeli officials and everyone, when do you see what we 148 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 4: can learn about what happened at Foordah from those B 149 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 4: two's And I think, but you know, even more importantly 150 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 4: than the specifics of what happened and around us, this 151 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 4: notion that the United States has embraced this country's outlook. 152 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 4: The speech that President Trump just gave that you just played, 153 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 4: it could not have been. It could would not have 154 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 4: been written by almost by the coued spokesman. 155 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 8: It was. 156 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:11,080 Speaker 4: It was a total embrace of the Israeli view of 157 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 4: Iran and of its own. 158 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 8: Future. 159 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 4: And so it's now all that said, everyone is a 160 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 4: little on edge and afraid, and flights have been were 161 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 4: canceled all morning, and school is canceled and so forth. 162 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:27,560 Speaker 8: But we shall see. 163 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 4: I think that there's a sense of an important corner 164 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 4: having been turned Ethan. 165 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 3: What are the expectations about retaliations, either it within Israel 166 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 3: or the region? 167 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 4: I mean, I think that there is enormous speculation about 168 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 4: what Iran could and might still. Do we know that 169 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:50,679 Speaker 4: they still have some long distance ballistic missiles. We imagine 170 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 4: that those four hundred kilograms of highly enriched uranium that 171 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 4: they have, if they were holding at a place like Florida, 172 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:01,719 Speaker 4: was they say, was moved in advance. 173 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 8: Of the bombing. 174 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 4: So in theory, you could take sixty percent, which is 175 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 4: what it was enriched to, you could take those containers, 176 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 4: those canisters, and you can theory make a nuclear weapon 177 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 4: fairly quickly. Would Iran do that? No one really thinks that. 178 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 4: But nobody really knows. Could Iran attack American bases and 179 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 4: so forth, Israeli embassies, All these things are being discussed. 180 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 8: Nobody knows. 181 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 4: Iran is very defiant in its public posture. But it 182 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 4: must be said also that Iran hasn't been this week 183 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 4: in a very very long time. I mean, all of 184 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 4: its militias around the region have been taken out by Israel, 185 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 4: and now it is very much on its back foot 186 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 4: and led by a man in the late eighties who's 187 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 4: probably in a bunker Ethan. 188 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 5: What are the next steps? 189 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 3: Is a beliad for the Israeli military who's had such 190 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 3: amazing success in Iran. 191 00:10:55,120 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 4: Or amazing success. Indeed, look they're continuing to attack in 192 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 4: western southwestern around today. Let's not forget that Iran did 193 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 4: shoot off about forty missiles at Israel early this morning 194 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 4: Israeli time did. Nobody was killed as far as we know, 195 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,319 Speaker 4: but to seventy or eighty people were hurt, buildings were 196 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 4: taken down, so they you know, there is still a 197 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 4: sense that this ballistic missile threat is of enormous significance 198 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 4: for Israel. The idea that every day, every night this 199 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 4: country has to run to bomb shelters to avoid it 200 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 4: is a huge threat. And you know, this is a 201 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:39,079 Speaker 4: country that is a big part of the digital economy 202 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 4: of the world. It can't continue in this fashion. So 203 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 4: they are continuing to try to take out those launchers 204 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 4: and missile sites. But you know, we'll have to see 205 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 4: what's going forward. It's still a little unclear what's next, 206 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 4: and also it's unclear what the US will do next. 207 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 2: We continue with Ethan Brown, are driving all of Bloomberg 208 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 2: News out of Tel Aviv. We welcome all of you 209 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Television around the world across the nation on YouTube. 210 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 2: Good Morning as well, and a serious exam across Canada 211 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 2: and the United States on Channel one twenty one, Joe 212 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 2: Matthew coming up with a balance of power shifting in Washington. 213 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 2: The first we continue with mister Briner. 214 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 3: Well, Ethan, you mentioned the US military. Obviously a very 215 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 3: dramatic and lethal strike by the US military overnight. Is 216 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,559 Speaker 3: there what is the expectation within Israel about the role 217 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 3: the US may play in the hours and days to come. 218 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 4: I think Israel has been extremely careful about expressing too 219 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 4: much expectation. The idea being that, you know, we make 220 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 4: it easy and then they want to join the winners. 221 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 4: That's been the approach. They think that's been an effective 222 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 4: approach with President Trump. Obviously, the President himself said we 223 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 4: will go back if we do not get what we want, 224 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 4: and he didn't specify in this speech, but has repeatedly 225 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 4: specified that what Israel in the United States together want 226 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 4: is for Iran to commit not to enriching uranium on 227 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 4: in soil and to give up as highly enriched uranium. 228 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:09,959 Speaker 8: Iranda said it won't do that. 229 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 4: I would say that the Israel is going to continue 230 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 4: to do carried out and hope that the. 231 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:16,479 Speaker 8: US will join them when necessary. 232 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 2: Yes, Ethan, one final question. I'm sure we'll be speaking 233 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 2: to you in the coming days as well. Shean Bremer 234 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 2: of Eurasia Group had a terse tweet or LinkedIn out 235 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 2: last night where he said, this is the best week 236 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 2: in the political career of mister Nta who do you 237 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 2: agree with? That is? This is essentially mister Trump supporting Netanya, 238 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 2: who is he could only dream of? 239 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 8: That's correct. I don't think that. 240 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 4: I think this is an incredibly powerful personal triumph for 241 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 4: Benjamin Taniah, who this is a guy who was in 242 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 4: pretty deep political trouble recently, and you know, it seemed 243 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 4: like it was over for him. And the story I 244 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,439 Speaker 4: wrote for Bloomberg early this morning, I said that that Trump, 245 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 4: sorry that Natanya had was seen as kind of golden 246 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 4: a year, the guy who'd be forced out by a 247 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 4: terrible tragedy failure on his part, but in fact views 248 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 4: himself as Franklin Roosevelt, the guy who withstood the attack 249 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 4: on Pearl Harbor and turned it into a massive victory 250 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 4: for himself in the United States. So that's how I'm 251 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 4: Natanio sees himself. And look, I think Ian Bremer had 252 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 4: a point there. 253 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 2: Literally, Ethan, as you were speaking of Pearl Harbor in 254 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 2: December eighth, I was typing it into the computer. Ethan Bronner, 255 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 2: thank you so much from Tel Aviv this morning. And 256 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 2: we are on the same page and on the same 257 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 2: page with Joe Matthew, of course, wired into the politics 258 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 2: of Washington, his effort with balance of Power. Ethan, I 259 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 2: go to December eighth, nineteen forty one, not for the 260 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 2: drama of it or the equivalency of it, but it 261 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 2: is seared in our childhood. How FDR drove forward a 262 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 2: dialogue of war. I don't sense a dialogue here. Brief 263 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 2: as on how Republicans and Democrats will address to say 264 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 2: on the Sunday talk shows like Faceinination. 265 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 9: Well, it's a great question here, and obviously you're going 266 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 9: to hear a different angle from Democrats and Republicans. I 267 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 9: think Democrats, you can understand, they're going to be asking 268 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 9: for the right to declare an authorization for the use 269 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 9: of force. They're going to say that the president is 270 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 9: acting irresponsibly in some cases. I'm more concerned or more 271 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 9: interested to hear from Republicans who don't agree, because the 272 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 9: split that we've seen in Maga that some call a 273 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 9: civil war, and that might be pushing it a little 274 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 9: bit far has been fascinating, and this is something that 275 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 9: weighed heavily on President Trump as he made this decision, 276 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 9: knowing that Steve Bannon had lunch with him just a 277 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 9: couple of days ago to urge restraint here. That is 278 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 9: what preceded the two week announcement. Remember this interview with 279 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 9: Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz that really brought this to life. 280 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 9: Charlie Kirk and the others have been really challenging Donald 281 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 9: Trump to stay true to his claim on the campaign 282 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 9: trail to start no new wars. That was the hallmark 283 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 9: of the first term. That was what's supposed to make 284 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 9: him different than Joe Biden. And here we are now 285 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 9: with MAGA trying to on a Sunday morning reconcile itself 286 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 9: whether it should in fact back the President of the 287 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 9: United States on something that they're very worried about. 288 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 3: Joe to the extent we want to get a view 289 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 3: on how President Trump's backing coalition and MAGA support. 290 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 8: Who should we look to. 291 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 3: There are there some figures that will really give us 292 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 3: a sense of is there a break in his support? 293 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 9: I think it's some of the names that I just mentioned. 294 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 9: It's Steve Bannon. Who's really been driving this. It's going 295 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 9: to be Tucker Carlson, who the President called cuckoo, remembering 296 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 9: that Tucker Carlson stumped for Donald Trump. All of these 297 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 9: guys were on the trail with him to try to 298 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 9: get him elected, and they still call themselves tried and 299 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 9: true supporters. Whether that breaks now is going to be interesting. 300 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 9: They may back him on an isolated strike, but guys, 301 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 9: we're all waiting to see what Iran does next and 302 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 9: if it does strike US interests in the region, this 303 00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 9: is going to feel real different. 304 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 2: Joe, get to the hegxith press conference, frame out the 305 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 2: relationship of the Pentagon to the White House. Last night 306 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 2: we had President Trump with the Secretary of State, the 307 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense, the Vice President, all in civilian dress, 308 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 2: the civilian superiority over our military. Tell us how General 309 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 2: Cain and the others of the military fit into this discussion. 310 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 9: These are great questions because there are a lot of 311 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 9: new faces here at the Pentagon, and a lot of 312 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 9: them other than Pete Hegseth, have really not been public 313 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:37,159 Speaker 9: figures so far. Our reporting, my reporting would suggest that 314 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,199 Speaker 9: it's in fact not Pete Hegseth. We should be watching. 315 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,959 Speaker 9: But Steve Feinberg, the Deputy Defense Secretary, who has been 316 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 9: knee deep in this, working directly with the White House, 317 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 9: crossing the Potomac to make that connection, while Pete Hegseth 318 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 9: deals with a lot of hearings and a lot of 319 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 9: other issues that have put him somewhat on the outs. 320 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 9: With President Trump, they did stand side by side. We 321 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 9: should note hegseeth Trump in the cross hallway at the 322 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 9: White House last night, and Hegseth is going to hold 323 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 9: forth in this news conference. He'll be the face of 324 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 9: this publicly. Behind the scenes, it's Finberg working with the 325 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 9: White House to a great degree, which is really something 326 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 9: that feels unusual at a time of war. 327 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 2: But with your expertise on this, Joe Matthew, I mean, 328 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 2: the fact is Steve and Andrew Feinberg is a major 329 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 2: Republican donor. We in the Bloomberg world, folks know him 330 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 2: all with his work at Cerberus, a clay tennis player 331 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 2: at Princeton, etc. Etc. What is his competency here within 332 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 2: the Pentagon? 333 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 9: Listen, That's not a question that I can probably answer, 334 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,439 Speaker 9: and we have a great team covering the Pentagon on 335 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 9: that front. He hasn't been on the job for that long. 336 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,479 Speaker 9: Whether he has real military chops is another matter. And 337 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 9: the same goes for a chairman of a Joint Chiefs 338 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 9: who's got a great experience on the battlefield but is 339 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 9: actually pretty new to this job. Remembering that Donald Trump 340 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 9: wanted to clean house and Pete Hegseth did as well, 341 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 9: all of this remains to be seen on really, frankly, 342 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 9: what's the next move. We can't underscore the importance of 343 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 9: what just happened, but this is not the end of something. 344 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,719 Speaker 9: It's the start of something when we start considering the 345 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 9: needs of force protection in places throughout the Middle East, 346 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 9: like Saudi Arabia, like even in Iraq and Syria, where 347 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 9: we have thousands of US troops the UAE, for instance, 348 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 9: could all be within the reach of Iran right now. 349 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 9: And politically speaking, you know, how far does Congress let 350 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 9: this go without, in fact and authorization for the use 351 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 9: of force. That's going to be a big question in 352 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,199 Speaker 9: the weeks ahead, because this is not likely to be 353 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 9: something that stops tomorrow. 354 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,200 Speaker 3: Joe, what do we expect from the Democrats here? There's 355 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 3: some reporting that they were not even briefed on this 356 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:38,880 Speaker 3: operation here. 357 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 9: Yeah, what's the actually interesting. It's not going to help 358 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 9: the conversation. Like Tom said, coming up after we're done here, 359 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 9: when we turn to the Sunday morning shows here on Bloomberg, 360 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 9: they were already concerned about this. They were already calling 361 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 9: out Donald Trump for preparing a strike like this. Now 362 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 9: that he's done it, and they weren't in the loop. 363 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 9: That goes for a lot of things around here. We've 364 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,440 Speaker 9: got a reconciliation process that they're not involved in as well. 365 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 9: It's a familiar feeling for Democrats, but when it comes 366 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 9: to national security, it has a bit of a different tinge. 367 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,720 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew, thank you so much for Balance of Power. 368 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 2: Who will be with us through the show this morning, 369 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:15,479 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington, we say good morning to you 370 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:19,640 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Television, on Bloomberg Radio worldwide, a special Good 371 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 2: Morning in ninety nine one FM in Washington. There will 372 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 2: be a briefing here in forty minutes scheduled by the 373 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs 374 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 2: of Staff. Well see who else shows up for that briefing. 375 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 2: We welcome all of you around the world, particularly on YouTube, 376 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 2: where you may subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts growing each in 377 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 2: every day with a newsflow this morning, and thank you 378 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 2: Roslin Matheson and Top Live. Go tliv go on the 379 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal worldwide. We need a briefing every twenty minutes 380 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 2: in Washington, Nathan. 381 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 7: Hager, Tom Paul. It is a wider war in the 382 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 7: Middle East this morning. Last night, President Donald Trump said 383 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:02,920 Speaker 7: American bombers had completely and totally obliterated Iran's three main 384 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,919 Speaker 7: underground nuclear sites at Ford OH and Ton's and Ishfahan. 385 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 7: In an address to the nation from the White House, 386 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,399 Speaker 7: the President said there would be far greater attacks if 387 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 7: Iran does not make peace. This morning, the Associated Press 388 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,240 Speaker 7: as satellite images showed damage to the entries and surrounding 389 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,199 Speaker 7: mountain side at Ford Oh. The UN's nuclear watchdog had 390 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 7: worn against an attack like this because of the risk 391 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 7: of radiation leaks, but right now the International Atomic Energy 392 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 7: Agency says there is no sign of increase in off 393 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 7: site radiation levels, and Iran's Red Crescent says there were 394 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 7: no deaths from last night's attacks. This morning, Israeli Prime 395 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 7: Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the strike was done in full 396 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 7: coordination with his country. Now Iran is vowing to respond. 397 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 7: There have been sirens and explosions heard in Israel this morning. 398 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 7: Iran's Foreign minister of bas Arakchi says the US crossed 399 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 7: a very big line last night that had also bombed 400 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 7: the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty and the International rule of Law. 401 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 7: European Commissioned President Earth Levanderline says, now is the moment 402 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 7: for Iran to engage incredible diplomacy while warning the country 403 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 7: cannot obtain a nuclear weapon. China just released a statement 404 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 7: strongly condemning the US strikes and calling for a ceasefire, 405 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,360 Speaker 7: particularly from Israel. Iran's foreign minister says he will head 406 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:19,399 Speaker 7: to Moscow today to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 407 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 7: That is Iran's strongest ally in the region. I'm Nathan 408 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 7: Hager in Washington, Tom and Paul. 409 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 2: Nathan, thank you so much, greatly appreciated for the markets today. 410 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,880 Speaker 2: Let's remember it is Sunday. Little trading on the Bloomberg 411 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,120 Speaker 2: launch bed. There is one thing trading in Paul. I'm 412 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 2: frankly surprised Bitcoin is down so little. As a thermometer, 413 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 2: a global thermometer of the moment Yep, it really hasn't 414 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 2: declined all that much. Off the shock note of this. 415 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 3: Geop and Tom, you know, Dan Curtis are from Bloomberg 416 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 3: Television out of London. 417 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 5: Some really good helpful news here. 418 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,520 Speaker 3: Just to keep us up the date, Oil, We'll begin 419 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 3: trading six pm Eastern time tonight. US treasuries open eight 420 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 3: pm Eastern time tonight. 421 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 5: US equity futures will open around. 422 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 3: Six pm Eastern time tonight, and the currencies around five 423 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 3: pm Eastern time on Sunday, So it's later today. 424 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 5: We'll starting to get a sense of the market's reader. 425 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 2: I pick it up at seven pm as a traditional thing. 426 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 2: Maybe it'll be a little bit earlier this time around. 427 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 2: But look to Bloomberg this evening for the Asia morning. 428 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 2: His book of thirteen years ago is definitive. It is 429 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 2: indispensable when leaders really matter. It is a set of 430 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 2: chapters of leadership in times of crisis for America. Gotamacunda 431 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 2: joins us, of course, with Yale University, in this case 432 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 2: a book from the Harvard Business Review of years ago. Professor, 433 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 2: thank you so much for beginning our conversation this morning. 434 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 2: We are alluding to December eighth, nineteen forty one in 435 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 2: our memories is a protocol process of going to war. 436 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 2: Did the president breach that protocol last night? 437 00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 8: Oh? 438 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 1: Completely, We're not even in the universe of protocol. But 439 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 1: that is not a set of laws and rules that 440 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 1: we've been forced in my lifetime. So we're not going 441 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 1: to start now. 442 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,919 Speaker 2: When you look at Indispensable, and I look at the 443 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 2: chapter leading up to World War Two, which is on 444 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 2: Chamberlain and then over to Churchill, is well from where 445 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 2: you sit and the synthesis of your books and the 446 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:23,920 Speaker 2: presidency is this a nation behind its president, not at all. 447 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,919 Speaker 1: And so there's always a rally around the flag effect 448 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 1: during a crisis. And I think the first opinion polls 449 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: will probably be pretty supportive, but because they usually are, 450 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: but most pulling for this beforehand was not supportive of 451 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: a strike. And I heard the discussion about whether the 452 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,920 Speaker 1: MAGA movement will fracture over this. I doubt that it will. 453 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 1: You're already seeing major people there who had yesterday opposed 454 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 1: to strike today saying the president. The president has acted wisely. 455 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 1: But for the country as a whole, I think a 456 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,679 Speaker 1: lot depends on what happens next. It is at this 457 00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 1: point the Iranians move not ours, that will determine how 458 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 1: things play out. 459 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 5: Gotham. 460 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 3: What do you think pushed President Trump to make this move? Again, 461 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 3: a pretty a very substantial move in terms of really 462 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:12,240 Speaker 3: aggressively deploying US military in a very sensitive. 463 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:13,640 Speaker 5: Part of the world. What do you think was his motivation? 464 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: It really is and it's worth sort of emphasizing that 465 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: there was no urgency here, right He had said, I'm 466 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:21,879 Speaker 1: giving you two weeks. The Arians had signaled they were 467 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 1: open to negotiations, These facilities were not going anywhere. The 468 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: Iranians were not about We're not within weeks of a 469 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 1: bomb or anything like that. So it seems kind of 470 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 1: like and getting inside the head of the president is 471 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 1: always difficult. He saw the Israelis having an extraordinary tactical 472 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: and operational success, and you can't overstate just how effectively 473 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 1: it Israeli attacks event and he kind of wanted to 474 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,199 Speaker 1: get in on it. And also, you know, observed that 475 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:49,879 Speaker 1: there were a handful of targets that they could not 476 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 1: strike that we could. And again we don't have bomb 477 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: damage assessment from any reliable source, yet we don't know 478 00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:58,679 Speaker 1: how well these strikes worked. 479 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 3: What do you expect over the next coming days and weeks, 480 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 3: got them from the US Congress, both sides of the aisle. 481 00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 5: In terms of response to this news. 482 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: So many Democrats will be outraged that they weren't even 483 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 1: briefed in, and that again is. 484 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 8: A violation of the law. 485 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 1: The law requires that you brief in senior Democrats as 486 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 1: well as senior Republicans when you're doing this kind of operation, 487 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 1: and the Trump administration just ignored that. But at the 488 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 1: same time, I think Democrats probably don't want to be 489 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,639 Speaker 1: seen as being completely opposed to a successful operation if 490 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 1: it is successful. So there's going to be some There's 491 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,199 Speaker 1: going to be some cross currents there, as there are 492 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 1: on the Republican side, where Ran Paul I think has 493 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: already come out and saying he opposed these actions. So 494 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 1: we're going to see a lot of waiting and seeing. 495 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,479 Speaker 1: The domestic politics are going to depend a lot on 496 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 1: how the r onind respond and how we respond to 497 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 1: that response. But I will note so Robert Kagan had 498 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 1: a really powerful article in the Atlantic yesterday pointing out 499 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 1: that administrations that were a lot more sort of careful 500 00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,439 Speaker 1: about civil rights and domestic rights than the Trump andministration 501 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:04,400 Speaker 1: have used wartime to crack down domestically, and there has 502 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,479 Speaker 1: to be some concern that the Trump administration is going 503 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 1: to do that here too. 504 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 2: I look at you. I think Kagan piece American democracy 505 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 2: might not survive a war with a run. That's very 506 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,880 Speaker 2: strong language. Here got a Macunda. The basic idea and 507 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:22,479 Speaker 2: my heritage is on a presidential effort of military force 508 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 2: the nation in some way rallies around him. At this 509 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:31,119 Speaker 2: press conference in thirty minutes. Is there going to be 510 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 2: a nation rallying around the Secretary of Defense. 511 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 1: I'm sure there will be some, but this administration has 512 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:43,400 Speaker 1: done everything possible to counter that. I mean, you even 513 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 1: have them releasing photographs of him in the situation room 514 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:51,359 Speaker 1: wearing a campaign hat, you know, during a military strike. 515 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 1: It's just impossible to imagine any previous president doing that, 516 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,159 Speaker 1: both out of you know you shouldn't, but also just 517 00:27:58,200 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 1: because if you do want the country to rally to, 518 00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:03,439 Speaker 1: you should give some signs that you respect and value 519 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:04,240 Speaker 1: half the country. 520 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 2: I got him Accunnan with us and we will continue 521 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 2: his book, Indispensable and Picking Presidents, looks at the history 522 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:15,240 Speaker 2: of the administration, the executive branch across America. We welcome 523 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,120 Speaker 2: all of you. A special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Good 524 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 2: Morning on Bloomberg Television worldwide, on YouTube worldwide. Subscribe to 525 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast a special Good Morning to ninety two nine 526 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:30,400 Speaker 2: FM in Boston. Down here in New York City, Bloomberg 527 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 2: eleven three to oh and Nathan Agers ninety nine to 528 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:37,439 Speaker 2: one FM in Washington. We will continue many good guests 529 00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 2: coming up here besides Professor Peter Shear's schedule to deg 530 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 2: with this and plus Sweeney to the professor got him. 531 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,719 Speaker 3: How do you expect President Trump to play this in 532 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 3: the days ahead? I mean, this is it appears at 533 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 3: this early stage a wonderful military success. 534 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 5: Do you expect him to play this up or to 535 00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 5: try to. 536 00:28:55,920 --> 00:29:00,320 Speaker 3: Just move forward and not you know, expose any tentral 537 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 3: riffs in his support? 538 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 1: I think he will continue to play as success. But Paul, 539 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 1: I'm just going to emphasize, we don't know if this 540 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: was a success. R Let's just you know, go down the. 541 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 2: List, right. 542 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,800 Speaker 1: We don't know where the uranium hexafluoride is, so we 543 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 1: we just don't know, right, like is it buried under 544 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:19,120 Speaker 1: four doah? Is it in the tons is fahan The 545 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 1: IAEA has said that they've just lost track of it, 546 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 1: and at sixty percent that uranium is quite close to 547 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:31,719 Speaker 1: being ready to be weaponized. So if, just hypothetically speaking, 548 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 1: if we damaged but did knock out but did not 549 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 1: knock out four DOH, they likely will have enough centrifuges 550 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 1: there that if they choose to make a sprint to 551 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,479 Speaker 1: a bomb, they might be able to do it relatively quickly. 552 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,520 Speaker 1: If we completely destroyed FOURDAU, then it's a different situation, 553 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 1: but we don't know yet, so it's very sort of 554 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 1: very early to be announcing that we have complete success here. 555 00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 3: So Galtam, I mean again, this was a significant escalation 556 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,920 Speaker 3: by the US. What do you think the US is 557 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 3: willing to deal with in terms of retaliation here? If 558 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,239 Speaker 3: there is retaliation, is this going to be something that 559 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 3: could drag the US into maybe a little bit more 560 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 3: involved situation. 561 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 1: I think that's the fear on everybody's part, including I'm 562 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 1: sure the administration, which does not want that the Iranians all. 563 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 1: There are at least some reports that the Iridiance have 564 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 1: already started GPS janning ships in the Straits of Hormones 565 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 1: if they really wanted to escalate, blocking the Straits would 566 00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 1: be a way they could do that, and that's probably 567 00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,680 Speaker 1: still within their military capability since they can use mines 568 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 1: instead of other things to do that, but that would 569 00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,120 Speaker 1: have consequences right on the world price of oil. The 570 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 1: Chinese would probably be very unhappy if they did that, 571 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,920 Speaker 1: so they may not choose to take that step. That 572 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,040 Speaker 1: means that more like attack on US forces and the 573 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,880 Speaker 1: Gulf attack sort of in the Gulf area, sort of 574 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 1: attack on American embassies, things like that, and then I 575 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 1: just sort of events have a momentum all of their 576 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 1: own in which they could do that. And if Americans 577 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 1: die in Iranian retaliation, then there's gonna be pressure on 578 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,760 Speaker 1: the Trump, on the President to do bond once again. 579 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,200 Speaker 2: Professor one final question, and I guess I go from 580 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:10,280 Speaker 2: Clash of Civilizations a thought from the Charles River up 581 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 2: in Boston years ago. The clash of civilizations over Ian 582 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 2: Bremer Eurasia groups every nation for themselves. Wow, if we 583 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,960 Speaker 2: set up a change of our foreign policy, Secretary of 584 00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:29,720 Speaker 2: Rubio symbolizes that for the nation, what is the foreign 585 00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 2: policy coming out of state? 586 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 1: It's not clear that foreign policy is coming out of 587 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 1: state because I mean, apart from all the hats that 588 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 1: that Secretary of Rubio is wearing. We keep seeing that 589 00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 1: Trump make statements to conflict with his If I were 590 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:45,880 Speaker 1: in state, what I would be really worried about is 591 00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,960 Speaker 1: the signal we just sent is the way you make 592 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 1: sure that the United States does not attack you is 593 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 1: to already have nuclear weapons. 594 00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 9: Right. 595 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 1: The North Koreans demonstrated that, and the Iranians and the 596 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 1: Iranians who didn't have them more vulnerable. There have to 597 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,000 Speaker 1: be quite a few countries the world that are looking 598 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 1: at this and saying, well, the non proliferation regime is over, 599 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,960 Speaker 1: because the air audience were signaling that they would negotiate 600 00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 1: and we and we struck anyways, and so they've got 601 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 1: to be thinking that given this, given what's happened, the 602 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:14,719 Speaker 1: right thing for them to do is make a sprint 603 00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 1: to acquire nuclear weapons as fast as possible. 604 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 2: Gunna, thank you so much, really appreciate it. This morning 605 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 2: professor Yale University got a mcunder with his really incredible 606 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 2: books and the presidency of the nation. Paul, I think 607 00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 2: the questions here into this press conference is actually where 608 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 2: is policy coming from? And I remember Bush the younger. 609 00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 2: There was a surprise while they're making decisions at the 610 00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 2: White House. I'm unsure of this statement, Paul Sweeney. Can 611 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 2: we say all decisions are coming from the White House? 612 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 2: Maybe that is so? 613 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, It certainly seems like it, not just in military situations, 614 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 3: but on pretty much all policies seems to emanate from 615 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,120 Speaker 3: the White House. And that's the way the President is 616 00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 3: comfortable managing his administration. 617 00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:03,840 Speaker 2: Of extraordinary ability. With his tours of duty at Reuters 618 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 2: in Jerusalem posts, Dan Williams has provided really granular coverage 619 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 2: for Israel in the levant for all of Bloomberg News, 620 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 2: and he joins us now from Jerusalem. Dan Williams, thank 621 00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,560 Speaker 2: you for taking time in your afternoon on our Sunday 622 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 2: morning here in New York. Dan, I look at the 623 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 2: change in Iran and it projects to their support of 624 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 2: Hezbola to the north in Lebanon, of maybe Gaza and 625 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:36,160 Speaker 2: certain forms as well, and other things. As the President said, Iran, 626 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 2: the bully is the bully diminished. 627 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:43,160 Speaker 10: This morning, I think the Middle East power structure has 628 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 10: been reordered dramatically, possibly more than seen in a single 629 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:52,240 Speaker 10: instant in decades. If ever, this is something that many 630 00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,360 Speaker 10: in the Middle East were anticipating. Some dreading, some hoping 631 00:33:55,440 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 10: for going back decades, the conclusive potentially invention of the 632 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:07,959 Speaker 10: US superpower, with US firepower putting paid to sites in 633 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 10: Iran that would design specifically to withstand conventional attacks, including 634 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 10: by Israel, which is arguably the Middle East's mightiest military power. 635 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,800 Speaker 11: So what we've seen now is Trump upending. 636 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,520 Speaker 10: Effectively a status quo that was in place, that was 637 00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,839 Speaker 10: shaken admidly by eight or nine days of Israeli strikes. 638 00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,720 Speaker 11: But nonetheless this changes the equation utterly. 639 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,759 Speaker 2: Dan, it is so important you bring us up and 640 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 2: this goes back to October of nineteen eighty one. Paul 641 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:40,600 Speaker 2: Squeeny brought this up earlier. Dan Williams, is framed around 642 00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 2: the sea change of the War of nineteen sixty seven, 643 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 2: seared in a memory of a certain vintage as the 644 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 2: assassination of anwar sadat is all of Israeli leadership and 645 00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:57,240 Speaker 2: maybe even Western leadership. Are they at risk this morning 646 00:34:57,640 --> 00:34:59,359 Speaker 2: because of this bombing last night. 647 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:04,839 Speaker 10: That's an extraordinarily good question. It's very acute. It would 648 00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:08,560 Speaker 10: seem that you're referring mainly to the prospects of upheaval 649 00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 10: within Iran against the Iranian leadership. 650 00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 11: Is that what you're referring. 651 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,480 Speaker 2: I'll go there as well. I think you can go 652 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,520 Speaker 2: both ways. It can be threats to the Iranian leadership, 653 00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,799 Speaker 2: including the ayatola, or the other way, as we saw 654 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 2: with Rabin in with Sadat decades ago. Which is that 655 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 2: where we are this morning, where everyone I wouldn't. 656 00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,719 Speaker 10: Say risk, I wouldn't say the Israeli leadership is at 657 00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 10: any risk. Indeed, there was an assassination of Prime Minister 658 00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:37,280 Speaker 10: Rabine exactly three decades ago that was over risk taking 659 00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:41,200 Speaker 10: and peacemaking with the Palestinians. If anything, the current leadership, 660 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 10: specifically the Prime minist in NATANIAO, despite his very significant 661 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:50,600 Speaker 10: dipping popularity over judicial reform efforts two years ago, over 662 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:54,319 Speaker 10: the disastrous October seventh attack of Hamas which begun this war, 663 00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,880 Speaker 10: I think you're going to see his popularity increase with this, 664 00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,479 Speaker 10: including critics, and we've seen this already, the opposition leader 665 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,200 Speaker 10: rallying to him regular critics in the Israeli media, admitting 666 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 10: that this war the way conducted it, and in fact, 667 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:11,120 Speaker 10: the way he conducted contacts with President Trump, such a 668 00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:16,120 Speaker 10: President Trump decided to intervene that all works in Etenil's favor. 669 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,400 Speaker 10: I think he has as solid a position as he 670 00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 10: had had in recent memory in Israel. 671 00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:22,839 Speaker 11: As for Iran, there's been. 672 00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:27,640 Speaker 10: Much speculation that this situation could effectuate a regime change. 673 00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,040 Speaker 10: I think we should be cautious about predicting that, if 674 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 10: only because under threat of external action or under external attack, 675 00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,440 Speaker 10: people tend to rally to their flag, even if in 676 00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:41,319 Speaker 10: quieter times they were less likely to do so, even 677 00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,000 Speaker 10: if in quiet times they were unhappy with their government, 678 00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,959 Speaker 10: with a regime that rules over them. However, it's quite 679 00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:50,280 Speaker 10: possible that in the long run, with this Iranian regime 680 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 10: having seen its prestige dented, having been humiliated like this, 681 00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:58,480 Speaker 10: seen its military might which provided it with a degree 682 00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 10: of domestic cloud as well so blunted by the combined 683 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:03,840 Speaker 10: force of Israel Israel in the United States. 684 00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,040 Speaker 11: Right once that. 685 00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,440 Speaker 10: Dust settles, we could actually see some serious change in 686 00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,040 Speaker 10: the internal dynamics of Iran. 687 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,680 Speaker 3: Yes, Dan, what do you think the next steps are 688 00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,319 Speaker 3: for Israel here? I mean it feels like maybe we're 689 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:19,720 Speaker 3: waiting to see what Iran does, but that's not Israel 690 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:21,600 Speaker 3: doesn't tend to wait and see what people do. 691 00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:23,759 Speaker 5: They tend to act. What do you believe the next 692 00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:25,440 Speaker 5: days will hold for Israel. 693 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:26,359 Speaker 9: Well. 694 00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 10: Indeed, a couple things happened within short order of the 695 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,640 Speaker 10: world learning of these attacks ordered by Trump on these 696 00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:35,360 Speaker 10: three sites in Iran, these three nuclear sites. 697 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:37,520 Speaker 11: One was it Israel announced it it has. 698 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,400 Speaker 10: Pursued its own nightly attacks, including one set of sorties 699 00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,360 Speaker 10: against one of the sites attacked by the United States, 700 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:47,200 Speaker 10: It's Fahan, showing that the US must have struck some 701 00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,200 Speaker 10: nuclear targets there. Israel is coming in perhaps on a 702 00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,920 Speaker 10: mopping up operation, perhaps addressing targets that weren't addressed by 703 00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,600 Speaker 10: the United States. As far as Israel's concerned, the work continues. 704 00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:01,040 Speaker 10: There was also a missile in New Avs salvo Byron 705 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:05,160 Speaker 10: against Israel, quite a bit of damage six am pretty 706 00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,680 Speaker 10: much the entire country going down to shelters. That would 707 00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,200 Speaker 10: seem par for the course. The big question is was 708 00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,719 Speaker 10: that all was Iran basically ticking a box in terms 709 00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 10: of its retaliation keep in minded as yet to retaliate 710 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,960 Speaker 10: to my knowledge against the United States. Perhaps it sees 711 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:24,080 Speaker 10: Israel as a US proxy and that's a safer retaliation option, 712 00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:26,440 Speaker 10: especially if it's a one off. If indeed is a 713 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:28,040 Speaker 10: one off, I think what we're going to see now 714 00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 10: is very very very careful consideration with the part of 715 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,120 Speaker 10: the Uranian leadership, whether they should do an entire review 716 00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:38,280 Speaker 10: of their position, whether they should capitulate on their nuclear program, 717 00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:43,120 Speaker 10: submit to US and Israeli by extension demands regarding uranium enrichment, 718 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,600 Speaker 10: and in doing so preserve themselves, because it would appear 719 00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:48,800 Speaker 10: to me the choice now faced by the Uranian leadership 720 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:53,160 Speaker 10: is between self preservation i Regime preservation, and preserving a 721 00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:57,319 Speaker 10: nuclear program that has been significantly debraded, possibly retarded by 722 00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:01,080 Speaker 10: months or even years. It's basically like guarding a JEALOPI 723 00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,560 Speaker 10: of a nuclear program, even in the knowledge that will 724 00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:08,680 Speaker 10: actually extend the military strikes suffered by the regime, potentially 725 00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,600 Speaker 10: toppling it in an irrevicable manner. So I think it's 726 00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,279 Speaker 10: quite a binary choice, and I think the Israelis and 727 00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,239 Speaker 10: possibly the Americans, I think Trump actually made this quite 728 00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:20,080 Speaker 10: clear and his statement are banking on the Iranians now 729 00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,959 Speaker 10: doing an about face diplomatically, and this really bringing about 730 00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:27,600 Speaker 10: dramatic change in the entire disposition, the entire direction of 731 00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:31,000 Speaker 10: negotiations and the future of the nuclear program i e. 732 00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,720 Speaker 10: And effective shutting down of what remains of the nuclear 733 00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,760 Speaker 10: program should Iran agree to do that, Dan, It's. 734 00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:40,160 Speaker 3: Been an extraordinary time in Israeli history since October seventh, 735 00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:44,920 Speaker 3: so much change, most of it to the military benefit 736 00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:49,359 Speaker 3: of Israel. Is there a view in Israel that things 737 00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,600 Speaker 3: are really potentially different now? 738 00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:54,880 Speaker 11: Yes, so it feels like a revolutionary moment. 739 00:39:55,600 --> 00:40:00,759 Speaker 10: October seventh was a cataclysm Hamas. Basically it was a 740 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,920 Speaker 10: game changer in terms of an attack on Israel. What 741 00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:08,200 Speaker 10: Israel suffered from that attack, completely surprised by a ostensibly 742 00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:13,520 Speaker 10: fath inferior force. Hamas showed great original thinking, quite the 743 00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:17,840 Speaker 10: military virtuosity if they like, they really pulled off a surprise, 744 00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:21,279 Speaker 10: a shock attack on Israel. But it also changed the 745 00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,040 Speaker 10: rules as far as Israel's concerned. If Hamas came along 746 00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,040 Speaker 10: with a game changer, then Israel's actually going to change 747 00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:27,959 Speaker 10: the game. And the new game as far as Israel 748 00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,279 Speaker 10: Is concerned, is going in the offensive, destroying all potential 749 00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:35,080 Speaker 10: threats in all neighboring countries and also Iran, which is 750 00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:38,120 Speaker 10: what considered this arch foe and so far would appear 751 00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,239 Speaker 10: with all the costs involved, and the costs have been 752 00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:44,360 Speaker 10: very significant to Palacinians and Ghazatisraeli's, especially on the home front, 753 00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,760 Speaker 10: it would appear that the Israeli campaign is being pursued 754 00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:50,000 Speaker 10: to its full and may even succeed. 755 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,400 Speaker 2: Dan Williams in Jerusalem. We look forward to you're reporting 756 00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:56,600 Speaker 2: here in the coming hours. Dan Williams with Ethan Bryner 757 00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:59,080 Speaker 2: in Israel this morning