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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Sunday morning edition of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Peralt. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 2: We are here on YouTube for our video wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your audio podcasts. And we're always being brought to

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Speaker 2: you by bet MGM. And they offered ten dollars to

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Speaker 2: win one hundred and fifty dollars any event us that

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Speaker 2: promo cod juice one fifty at bet MGM with a

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Speaker 2: new account. Juice one fifty is the promo code. Okay,

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Speaker 2: So a two and three day yesterday unfortunately, so we

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Speaker 2: go three and one over the previous two days and

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Speaker 2: then two and three yesterday, so not great but not awful.

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Speaker 2: Losing day, so we snap our two game winning streak.

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Speaker 2: We get Michigan right, they cover for us to get

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Speaker 2: Baylor right, They cover for us. The day kind of

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Speaker 2: hinged on that under fifty five points to get scored.

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Speaker 2: We played under fifty three for Cincinnati Houston, so kind

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Speaker 2: of a bummer there one possession off from that game

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Speaker 2: going under, it doesn't go over.

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Speaker 1: We were way wrong. I was way wrong on wake Forest.

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Speaker 2: That was the worst bet of the day wig Forest

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Speaker 2: was completely maybe Georgia too. I mean, I came in

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Speaker 2: on Georgia and here's the thing. And some people were like, man,

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Speaker 2: you were on last night. You were talking about how

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Speaker 2: you wanted to bet on Alabama. You weren't going to

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Speaker 2: take Bama, and I was going to take Bama. But

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Speaker 2: what I did with Baylor was the same thing I

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Speaker 2: was waiting to do with Alabama. So Baylor went from

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Speaker 2: six and a half to seven, and then I bet

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Speaker 2: Baylor plus seven. I was waiting on the same thing

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Speaker 2: to happen with Georgia. I was waiting for that number

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Speaker 2: to go to seven, and it never went to seven,

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Speaker 2: and so I thought that that was a tell. I

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Speaker 2: thought that that was the book saying, look, if we

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Speaker 2: go to seven, then we're gonna get hammered with Bama money.

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Speaker 2: So we aren't going to go The pros wanted seven,

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Speaker 2: So the public took six and a half. The pros

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Speaker 2: took three and three and a half, and four and

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Speaker 2: a half and five and a half, and they took

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Speaker 2: all those numbers in between, and then I went Once

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Speaker 2: I got to six and a half, the public got

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Speaker 2: involved and the pro stopped betting. It, and it was interesting.

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Speaker 2: The pros kind of came off, and then the public

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Speaker 2: came back on PAMA at plus six and a half.

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Speaker 2: I was waiting for seven, never got seven until I

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Speaker 2: took Georgia, and that was a really bad decision by me.

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Speaker 1: So that was a bad call. And then the under

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Speaker 1: was a bad call.

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Speaker 2: And then the wake Forest bet was a bad call

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Speaker 2: because they got steamrolled by Pitt. So can he pick

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Speaker 2: it with a big game and blubblah blas So two

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Speaker 2: and three overall, so not my worst, not my best,

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Speaker 2: down one unit or one plus one point one units

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Speaker 2: around there, including the juice. So we move on until

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Speaker 2: our Sunday to Sunday. Okay, So we're coming up today

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Speaker 2: live video stream with Dan Harris and myself.

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Speaker 1: We will give you the player props.

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Speaker 2: Coming up at eight o'clock East, eight o'clock in Pacific,

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Speaker 2: eleven am Eastern time on this very YouTube channel for

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Speaker 2: Dan Harris and I for our live stream back at

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Speaker 2: it a game here for us with the NFL. So

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Speaker 2: we'll have one unit in play there. We'll have a

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Speaker 2: long teaser which hit last week, which improved to eight

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Speaker 2: and four or eight and five. I can't fully remember

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Speaker 2: where we are with that. I think it might be

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Speaker 2: eight and four for the Wong teaser, So we'll come

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Speaker 2: back with a long teaser for sure on the slate.

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Speaker 2: And I've got two one unit plays to give you

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Speaker 2: guys here today, so we will have in totality, we'll

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Speaker 2: have four units in play here for the NFL day,

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Speaker 2: So definitely, obviously you know, typical NFL day.

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Speaker 1: I don't like this slate.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna be honest, Okay, I'm not fully in love

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Speaker 2: with what the games are gonna look like coming up

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Speaker 2: here for today. But let's get into two of them here,

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Speaker 2: and let's start with Washington. At Las Vegas. Number was

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Speaker 2: two and a half, now it's one and a half.

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Speaker 2: Total was forty nine, forty nine and a half now

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Speaker 2: it's down to forty eight for Vegas and Washington.

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Speaker 1: Both these bets.

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Speaker 2: By the way, by the time you guys get up

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Speaker 2: in the morning and listen to both my bets are

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Speaker 2: probably going to be moving in the right direction for

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Speaker 2: us to get better numbers. I think this Washington Vegas

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Speaker 2: line's coming down. I think people are betting the under

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Speaker 2: a lot. If you take a look at what some

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Speaker 2: books are reporting from numbers perspective. There's one book that

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Speaker 2: already is reporting on the under seventy nine point three

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Speaker 2: percent of the bets on the under, in sixty nine

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Speaker 2: point nine percent of the money coming in here on

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Speaker 2: the under for these two teams. And I mean, look

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Speaker 2: it was, it's going down down, down forty eight, forty

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Speaker 2: seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: So certain books are at forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: Okay, hopefully we drop this thing all the way down

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Speaker 2: to like a forty seven forty six by kick.

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Speaker 1: Okay, this is.

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Speaker 2: A late afternoon kickoff, and I'm gonna come back and

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Speaker 2: take the over. Get to the lowest number possible. Wait,

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Speaker 2: let this get bet by the public down because they've

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Speaker 2: seen Washington Vegas and they're like, h Washington can't score

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Speaker 2: or Vegas can't score.

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Speaker 1: I will give you this.

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Speaker 2: If you look at Washington's game, five of the last

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Speaker 2: six games have gone under for Washington. However, three and

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Speaker 2: two on the road for Washington to the over Vegas

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Speaker 2: at home, four and two to the over.

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Speaker 1: Vegas.

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Speaker 2: Last game against Dallas thirty six thirty three went over

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Speaker 2: by eighteen points with a total of fifty one. Now

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Speaker 2: they got steamed at home again Cincinnati in their last

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Speaker 2: game thirty two to thirteen. But this offense for Vegas

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Speaker 2: can still score, and this defense for Vegas is not

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Speaker 2: that great. Vegas giving up twenty six point eight points

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Speaker 2: per game, that's thirtieth in the NFL. Washington giving up

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Speaker 2: twenty five point six points per game, that's twenty fifth

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. Vegas scoring twenty three point five points

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Speaker 2: per game seventeenth best in the NFL. In Washington scoring

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Speaker 2: twenty point eight points per game that's twentieth in in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. I like Taylor Heinike, I think this offense

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Speaker 2: could move the ball on Vegas. I think this offense

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Speaker 2: can potentially make some You get some big plays here.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Vegas gives up a bunch of yards on

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Speaker 2: the ground. Four point four yards per rush is twentieth

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Speaker 2: best in the NFL. To give up over one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty five yards rushing. That's exactly what Washington runs

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Speaker 2: per game, one hundred and twenty five yards rushing. So

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Speaker 2: I think Washington's gonna run the ball, But I also

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Speaker 2: think they got a chance to make some big plays.

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Speaker 2: Vegas gives up two hundred and thirty four yards per

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Speaker 2: game through the air, that's more than what Washington averages.

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Speaker 2: And then on the other side, you know, Vegas is

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Speaker 2: offense seven point nine yards per pass play, that's second

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Speaker 2: best in the NFL. And it's without Henry Ruggs being

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Speaker 2: out there, and it's the fact that they haven't always

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Speaker 2: found ways of getting the football to their key guys.

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Speaker 2: And still seven point nine and Washington gives up seven

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Speaker 2: point four yards per pass play that is twenty eighth

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Speaker 2: best in the NFL. I will be looking at Vegas

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Speaker 2: receiving props and Derek Carr passing props for my prop

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Speaker 2: bets coming up for here today. I think they're gonna

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Speaker 2: throw all over Washington. They don't run the ball very

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Speaker 2: well in Vegas three point eight yards per rush, and

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Speaker 2: Washington's not that easy to run on four point one

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Speaker 2: yards per rush. Springing Vegas gonna throw the football. I

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Speaker 2: think Washington can move the ball through the air and

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Speaker 2: on the ground against Vegas. Let this number drop, whatever

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Speaker 2: the lowest number is. Maybe there's a buyback here, but

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Speaker 2: I think you're gonna get forty seven, forty six potentially

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Speaker 2: even here with this, we're going over Vegas in Washington.

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Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a higher scoring game. I

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Speaker 2: do think Washington's gonna be right there, and Washington's probably

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Speaker 2: the right side here. I don't like that Vegas defense

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Speaker 2: at all, and I think that Washington offense is gonna

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Speaker 2: have a pretty good game. I mean, how many points

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Speaker 2: do we need from Vegas to cover this? Probably twenty

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Speaker 2: one and Washington twenty eight, somewhere in that range, twenty

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Speaker 2: seven somewhere in that range. I think they get it.

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Speaker 2: I lean Washington, but for one unit, we're taking the

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Speaker 2: over Washington at Las Vegas. One unit over whatever the

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Speaker 2: lowest number, forty seven and a half, forty seven, forty

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Speaker 2: six and a half, whatever the lowest number is gonna

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Speaker 2: get to with this public buying in to the under here,

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Speaker 2: we're going over Washington and Las Vegas. Speaking of buying

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Speaker 2: into the public, one more play for you guys. Let's

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Speaker 2: talk Denver at Kansas City Broncos. Off a bye. My

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Speaker 2: key favorite stat here, off a bye with Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 2: at the quarterback spot. Andy Reid is seven and one

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Speaker 2: straight up. Okay, they kill their opponents coming off of buys.

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Speaker 2: Denver catching nine and a half points, and we're talking

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Speaker 2: monster money. Ninety one percent spread handle at certain books

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Speaker 2: coming in here on the Broncos at plus nine and

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Speaker 2: a half open at ten. It's now nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: Denver's record against the spread six and five, casey four

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Speaker 2: and seven. They've been bad, but they've covered their last

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Speaker 2: two games at home one in five.

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Speaker 1: Not great.

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Speaker 2: However, they covered their last game against Dallas at home,

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Speaker 2: laying two and a half.

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Speaker 1: They won by ten.

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Speaker 2: Over the last ten games case four and six against

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Speaker 2: the spread, Denver Broncos five and five against the spread

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Speaker 2: in the Division one in one both teams. Last game

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Speaker 2: out for Denver against the Chargers, catching two and a

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Speaker 2: half points at home. They won the game outright by

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Speaker 2: fifteen points. But I'm just not a big believer in

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Speaker 2: this offense here, sorry, this defense for the Denver Broncos,

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Speaker 2: and the public is just saying, well, case doesn't cover anymore.

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Speaker 2: They're not going to cover a double digit spread. I've

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Speaker 2: already teased this down to minus three and a half, okay,

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Speaker 2: minus three and a half for Kansas City personally, and

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Speaker 2: took Dallas to pull that down. I think not only

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Speaker 2: am I going to cash my teaser, I think Denver

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Speaker 2: is going to win this game outright in by ten

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Speaker 2: points or more. Denver's offense twenty five point five points

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Speaker 2: per game. Sorry, Casey's offense twenty five point five points

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Speaker 2: per game. Denver's defense seventeen point eight points per game.

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Speaker 2: But man, this passing attack six point six yards per

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Speaker 2: passes third best in the NFL. I think Casey's got

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Speaker 2: a chance to make some big plays through the passing attack.

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Speaker 2: Get Kelsey really going. Get the running game going for

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs. I mean four point six yards per rush.

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Speaker 2: They got to run about more. One hundred and eleven

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Speaker 2: yards per game is seventeenth best in the NFL. I

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Speaker 2: do think that they're going to get after it and

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Speaker 2: run the football here. I think I got Mahomes. I

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Speaker 2: got Mahomes at home. I got Mahomes at home off

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Speaker 2: of BUYE, and I got a Denver team that I

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Speaker 2: don't particularly like all that much. I mean, they're not

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Speaker 2: playing for much right now. I mean Denver six and five.

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Speaker 2: You could say, okay, man, they're kind of still in

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Speaker 2: the Hunt. I'm not buying there in Hunt. But they've

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Speaker 2: won three of four, so they say, oh, they're playing better.

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Speaker 2: Here they come, nah man. I mean, I know they

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Speaker 2: beat Washington, Dallas and the Chargers. They lost thirty to

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Speaker 2: thirteen to Philadelphia. I see a similar type of game here.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a thirty to thirteen type game. I

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Speaker 2: think Casey goes away winning this. I'm going to lay

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Speaker 2: the nine and a half, but you might get a

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Speaker 2: better number. It might be nine. By the time you

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Speaker 2: guys get this, it maybe nine, maybe eight and a

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Speaker 2: half in eight sud be maybe eight.

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Speaker 1: And a half.

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Speaker 2: Because of all the public money coming in here on

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Speaker 2: the Broncos. This is definitely the square dog play of

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Speaker 2: the day, taking the points with the Broncos. I'm laying

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Speaker 2: it case minus nine and a half k C minus

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Speaker 2: nine for one unit at home, taking on the Denver Broncos. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so in the on the live stream, we have the

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Speaker 2: long teaser and I got four player props to come

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Speaker 2: at you here on a Sunday morning for us one

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Speaker 2: unit in play, I'm sorry, two units in play. We're

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Speaker 2: going Denver, case laying the nine and a half nine

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Speaker 2: with the Kent with the Casey Chiefs, and we're taking

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Speaker 2: the over forty seven, forty six, whatever you're gonna get

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Speaker 2: from a total perspective over Vegas and Washington each for

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Speaker 2: one unit coming up here today MIAs Matt Parutz. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 2: I'll talk to you for the live stream eleven am

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Speaker 2: Eastern Time with Dan Harris and myself for another week

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Speaker 2: of NFL football.

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Speaker 1: It's the Deal.

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Speaker 2: Juice Podcast always being brought to you by bad MGM