1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 2: Oil ninety five dollars our reality once again today. I 7 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 2: won't call it a new reality. We hit one hundred 8 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: overnight here. We've got our eyes on crude and Brent, 9 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 2: which are not too far apart from each other. With 10 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 2: the difficult headlines here coming from Iran's new Supreme leader, 11 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 2: I keep seeing the purported leader of the alleged Ayatola, Well, 12 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 2: he's speaking, and we told you yesterday he was apparently 13 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: badly injured in the initial strikes against Iran. The new 14 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 2: Supreme leader comedye saying the straight of horror moves should 15 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 2: remain shut. Tehran will look to open other fronts in 16 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 2: the war if the US and Israel persist with their attacks. 17 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,479 Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable moment here, and it certainly got the oil 18 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 2: patch freaked out all over again. And it's not the 19 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:19,559 Speaker 2: only headline that we're following President Trump on social media, writing, 20 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 2: the United States is the largest oil producer in the 21 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 2: world by far, so when oil prices go up, we 22 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:28,680 Speaker 2: make a lot of money. But of far greater interest 23 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,039 Speaker 2: and importance to me as president is stopping an evil 24 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 2: empire Iran, from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle 25 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 2: East and indeed the world. I won't ever let that happen. 26 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 2: And so it doesn't sound like a lot of off 27 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 2: ramps are presenting themselves at the moment. The President on 28 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 2: the road last evening in Kentucky talking like this thing 29 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 2: was already over. Here's what he said at the rally. 30 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 2: We've won. 31 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 3: Let me tell it, we've won. You know, you'd never 32 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 3: like to say too early. You want, we want in 33 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 3: the first hour, it was over. My administration is, you know, 34 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 3: better than anybody, is also working to keep the oil flowing. 35 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 2: It's so flowing all over. 36 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 3: We knocked out you know, they want to drop some mines. 37 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 3: Very friendly people mind, so boats blow up and we 38 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 3: knocked out as a you know, every hour I have 39 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 3: to change because they knock them out so fast. I've 40 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 3: never seen anything, think of it. They knocked out fifty 41 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 3: four ships in two days. 42 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 2: Fifty four ships in two days. Interesting now AFP is 43 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:37,640 Speaker 2: reporting that Iran allowed ships from some countries to cross 44 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz. We're seeking more information on this, 45 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:46,079 Speaker 2: but apparently that brought us back from triple digit territory 46 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 2: here when it comes to oil. Bloomberg's Washington correspondent Tyler 47 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 2: Kendall stops by for a moment. Glad to have her 48 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 2: at the table today on what is a rainy and 49 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 2: now suddenly freezing cold day in Washington after eighty five 50 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 2: degrees yesterday. It's powerful, course, Tyler is we've won the 51 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 2: official administration line here. 52 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 4: Well. 53 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 5: President Trump has repeatedly expressed optimism that the US is 54 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 5: ahead of schedule, as he likes to say when it 55 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 5: comes to achieving objectives in Iran, and to reference the 56 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 5: post on True Social that you are just mentioning, he 57 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 5: is really trying to put to the forefront that those 58 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 5: objectives are what's important right now when you hear all 59 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 5: these concerns and political pressure when it comes to energy prices. 60 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 5: But as you outlined, we've gotten these updates from Sentcom, 61 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 5: including that the US has already hit more than five 62 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 5: thousand Iranian targets. So it appears that is one way 63 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 5: that the administration is measuring success as questions still remain 64 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 5: about just how long this conflict will go, and. 65 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 2: The regime holds amazingly. Not only the statement from the 66 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 2: IATOLA this morning, Royer's reporting intelligence indicates Iran's leadership is 67 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 2: still largely intact and not at risk of collapse as 68 00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 2: long as we continue this campaign from the air only, 69 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 2: and that remains the case. 70 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 5: Right and we had also heard our reporting, actually pretty 71 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 5: incredible reporting from our colleagues in the region. Iran had 72 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 5: told regional intermediaries overnight that they have a few demands 73 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 5: that they want to see in order to agree to 74 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 5: any potential ceasefire, which was really the first inkling that 75 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 5: we've even heard that there was discussion about a ceasefire. 76 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 5: But that includes that the US and Israel would have 77 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 5: to promise not to attack them ever again in the future, 78 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 5: which sort of highlights, I think, just how stark that 79 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 5: divide is at the moment between all of the factions involved, 80 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 5: and that there really doesn't feel like there is a 81 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 5: viable off ramp right now because President Trump still has 82 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 5: maintained that there needs to be what he calls unconditional surrender, 83 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 5: as the US keeps achieving these objectives. I'm sure we'll 84 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,840 Speaker 5: get into it with the oil. But perhaps one of 85 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 5: the most stark comments that we got from that statement 86 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 5: from the new Supreme Leader, the first time that we've 87 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 5: heard from him since he was appointed over the weekend, 88 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 5: was him bowing that the strait of her moves will 89 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 5: remain closed, and that is the key leverage point in 90 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 5: all of this for Iron. 91 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 2: That's right. Well, boy, I'll tell you in our remaining 92 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 2: moment here, I am curious if there's a chance we 93 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 2: see the president Today's got a couple of stops on 94 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,279 Speaker 2: the calendar. Nothing public though, right everything. 95 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:16,160 Speaker 5: Is closed at the moment. No public briefing yet either, 96 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 5: so we'll have to see. But we have heard from him, 97 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,679 Speaker 5: of course on truth social so we'll keep our eyes 98 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 5: paired there. And as Bloomberg News is reporting today, some 99 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 5: of these new measures that the President could be taking 100 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 5: to help curb those prices, including invoking the Jones Act, 101 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 5: which would make it easier for generally cheaper foreign tankers 102 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 5: to transport energy commodities around. We know there's some other 103 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 5: ideas that he's floating, but at this point, nothing public. 104 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 2: Quick Well, you know, things are not great when we 105 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 2: start rethinking the Jones Act and tapping the spr and 106 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 2: both are taking place right now. Tyler, thank you so much. 107 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent, with the latest tier 108 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 2: on this situation. As we've told you, it's not com 109 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 2: and cheap. Pentagon told Congress at the first we of 110 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:05,160 Speaker 2: the war alone cost American taxpayers at least eleven billion dollars, 111 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 2: something that we talked to Alyssa Slotkin about, an important 112 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 2: Democratic voice on foreign policy in the United States Senate, 113 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 2: my colleague Kaylee Lyons got into this matter with her. 114 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 6: Listen, the President and his cabinet have been all over 115 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 6: the place in terms of what our objectives were. You know, 116 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 6: is it regime change, their nuclear capabilities, ballistic missiles, you. 117 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 7: Know what is it? 118 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 6: I think the truth is that, you know, originally, when 119 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 6: it comes to thinking about sort of strategy in the 120 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 6: Middle East, one thing we never ever want to have 121 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 6: is another country having veto power over our freedom of navigation, 122 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,799 Speaker 6: our ability to ship and move things. And right now, 123 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 6: whether the President likes it or not, Iran has veto 124 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 6: power over what is getting through the Persian Gulf. You know, 125 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,480 Speaker 6: this very narrow straits of Hormus. It's driving up the 126 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 6: price of oil. Ships were attacked today trying to make 127 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 6: that crossing insurance companies won't ensure ships. So I think 128 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,279 Speaker 6: whatever the definition of victory may or may not be, 129 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:03,239 Speaker 6: when Iran under a different guy, it's not the same leader. 130 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 6: You have a different leader, the son of the former 131 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 6: leader is now leading. They still have the ability to 132 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 6: project power and screw up our shipping. So to me, 133 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 6: you know, I don't know what definition he has because 134 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 6: I don't know what his goals are. It's sort of 135 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 6: like Venezuela, where it's like you do a couple things 136 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 6: and you declare victory and go on. But I'm going 137 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 6: to need to see, certainly some more clarity on what 138 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 6: we've actually claim to have achieved and is the juice 139 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,679 Speaker 6: worth the squeeze When it comes to the loss of life, 140 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 6: we've lost lives already, and then also the loft of 141 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 6: treasure given what it's doing to the US economy. 142 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 7: Well, of course it's not just lives loss. 143 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 8: We saw reporting from CBS earlier today that there were 144 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 8: actually more casualties in terms of injuries in that drone 145 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 8: strike in Kuwait. CBS reporting that includes brain injury, shrapnel, 146 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 8: rooms burns. At least one amputation some thirty American service 147 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 8: members according to their reporting as of Tuesday night, we're 148 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 8: still in the hospital. If we are to see in 149 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 8: the name of protecting shipping in the strait of horror, 150 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 8: mews actually the beginning of naval escorts and more troops 151 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 8: potentially put in harm's way for that reason. Is is 152 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 8: that justified in terms of when we consider the economic 153 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 8: consequences that you were just laying out. 154 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, well, look you're starting to hear people really hurting 155 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 6: here back at home with the price of gas, with 156 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 6: the price of just moving fertilizer like for our farmers 157 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 6: in and out. So we've definitely have that request. It's 158 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 6: a big deal to make the decision to actually escort 159 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 6: with a military escort. And it was interesting because the 160 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 6: Secretary of Energy announced, you know, okay, we're going to 161 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:33,959 Speaker 6: be escorting ships and then had to take that tweet down. 162 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 6: And to my knowledge, we have not provided military escort 163 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 6: for a single ship. So, you know, I think that 164 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 6: this is a live issue right now. I will say, 165 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 6: with the tragic death of these service people, something that 166 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,199 Speaker 6: is a new trend in this war is the role 167 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 6: of drones right, Iron's use of largely kamikaze drones into 168 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 6: civilian targets, military targets, our embassies, and their ability to 169 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 6: evade our traditional missile defense, you know, like our assets. 170 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 6: This is a new type of thing. The Ukrainians are 171 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 6: sending advisors to the United States of America to help 172 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 6: us with counter drone technology. I just want to put 173 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 6: down this marker. This is a new era for warfare 174 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 6: for the United States. The Ukrainians have been living it, 175 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 6: and now we are living it too. 176 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 2: She served three tours in Iraq as a CIA analyst 177 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 2: and now serves on the Armed Services and Homeland Security Committees. 178 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 2: Senator Alissa Slotkin speaking with us last evening here on 179 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. Glad 180 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 2: you're alone. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll 181 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:36,079 Speaker 2: have much more coming up after this. 182 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 183 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 184 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 185 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 186 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: New York station. 187 00:09:55,280 --> 00:10:00,080 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. It's the Thursday 188 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 2: addition and thanks for joining us. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, 189 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 2: where we are reeling here thanks in part to the weather. 190 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 2: We've gone from eighty five degrees we lost fifty degrees 191 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 2: overnight and it's snowing right now. We were talking cherry 192 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 2: blossoms yesterday. If you're with us on YouTube, you see 193 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 2: I am not lying. It looks like a blizzard outside. 194 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 2: I'm not sure what's happening. Who says they can't control 195 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 2: the weather. Washington also trying to recover from the Jake 196 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 2: Paul endorsement, and if you haven't heard about that, we 197 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 2: will get to it later with our political panel. First, 198 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 2: we try to seize on the cost of war here, 199 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 2: beyond the lives that have been lost and the many 200 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 2: Americans who have been injured. We've been learning much more 201 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 2: about that in the last twenty four hours with that 202 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 2: report from CBS News. We're talking about one hundred and 203 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 2: forty and many of them are gravely injured. Going back 204 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 2: to those initial strikes, the initial drone strikes that killed 205 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 2: a half dozen Americans, and that number has been growing here. 206 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 2: We'll have more on that as we learn more, the 207 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 2: financial costs, or as Senator Slot Cain referred to, the 208 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 2: loss of blood and treasure, is real with reporting. Now 209 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 2: you've heard this figure beyond eleven billion dollars already. This 210 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 2: came out of a series of briefings on Capitol Hill, 211 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 2: the Pentagon telling lawmakers the first six days of the 212 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 2: war with Iran cost eleven point three billion dollars. Now, 213 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 2: it's interesting, he remember the first two days was in 214 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 2: excess of five billion. So hey, this is getting cheaper 215 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 2: as we go. But the actual cost is likely much higher, 216 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 2: Bloomberg reports because the number does not include the expense 217 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 2: of operating ships, maintaining personnel deployed in the region. Remember, 218 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 2: we talked to Colonel Sanders about gas and salaries alone 219 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 2: millions of dollars a day for a single aircraft carrier group, 220 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 2: and we got two of them steaming out there right now. 221 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 2: That's where we start our conversation with our political panel. 222 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 2: We've got a good one for you today. Doug Ferrer 223 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 2: is back with this democratic strategist principle at Maywood Strategies, 224 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 2: former Senior Advisor to the FTC Commissioner Lena Kahan and 225 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 2: Maura is back with US as well Republican strategist Maric 226 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:21,199 Speaker 2: Ailespie Bluestack Strategies. It's great to see both of you here. Maura, 227 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 2: you were working in the House of Representatives with John 228 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 2: Bayner when we had a much smaller deficit and it 229 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 2: was still considered an urgent matter. Then at what point 230 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 2: will the expenditures here as the President tries to take 231 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 2: the affordability tour on the road, become a political liability 232 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 2: for Republicans. 233 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,000 Speaker 4: It sort of already is in a few ways. I 234 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 4: think when you look at what's happening just with the 235 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 4: DHS funding and the shutdown still happening there, we're watching 236 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 4: as TSA programs are being shut I know here in 237 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 4: Philadelphia one of the terminals for TSA, Predrick has completely 238 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,199 Speaker 4: closed to do lack of staff and the shortage is there. 239 00:12:57,360 --> 00:12:58,840 Speaker 4: I think you're going to see more of those issues 240 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 4: across the count We actually just discussed earlier this week 241 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:07,479 Speaker 4: Joe about airports that are recommending people get their hours 242 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 4: before four to six hours at some places. So I 243 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 4: think that the cost of these shutdowns, coupled with the 244 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 4: looking at how much is spending, I mean, depending on 245 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:20,080 Speaker 4: report Hegseth had to spend billions of dollars in one 246 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 4: month because of a deficit, because he had too much money. 247 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 4: Those two things just don't match up. And I think 248 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 4: as voters, we're wondering what the heck is going on 249 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 4: and Republicans, who are known to be fiscally responsible, what's 250 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 4: happened here. 251 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 2: There's a headline that just crossed the terminal. Saudi Arabia 252 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 2: says it just intersept that a drone headed to one 253 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 2: of its oil fields, the Shaba oil field. If that 254 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 2: thing hit, of course, we'd be dealing with a very 255 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 2: different level of concern in the oil market that's already 256 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:52,439 Speaker 2: reving things up ninety four dollars a barrel for WTI 257 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 2: today up eight percent. Brent is ever closer to one 258 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 2: hundred dollars, and we did see that triple digit figure overnight. 259 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 2: Dougetkes me that if the White House can convince Americans 260 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 2: that this was an urgent imperative, that there was an 261 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 2: imminent threat, that it was acting to protect Americans from 262 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 2: an imminent threat, that the price tag would not actually 263 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 2: be so much of a concern. But the President keeps 264 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 2: using the term excursion. He said that quite a few 265 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 2: times in his speech last night, and when he talked 266 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 2: to local media, this is an excursion, he said, We've 267 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 2: already won. And at that point, when you start hearing 268 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 2: about the money that's being spent in an economy that 269 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 2: is frequently described as k shaped, how long can the 270 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 2: politics persist there? For President Trump, I think he. 271 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 7: Means incursion, and I think no one on his team 272 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 7: has actually corrected him yet, which is not that surprising 273 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 7: because it seems. 274 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 2: That do you really believe that, Doug Well, I mean, look, 275 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 2: this war. 276 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 7: He apparently he's going around telling people he thinks it's 277 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 7: going well when you know all the facts and the 278 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 7: analysts within government seemed to be saying, and it's clear 279 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 7: to us in the public that it's not going well. 280 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 7: He's obviously replaced a hard line dictator with a hard 281 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 7: line dictator and shot the price of oil through the roof. 282 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 7: But look, I think the problem is, and you mentioned 283 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 7: it and more mentioned it, that this war costs eleven 284 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 7: billion dollars in the first week. It will cost much 285 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 7: more in both blood and treasure. Look, usaid, which is 286 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 7: one of the United States' greatest all time ways of 287 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 7: engaging with the world cost thirty five billion dollars a year, 288 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 7: and now it has been shut down thanks to Doze. Americans 289 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 7: are paying higher prices for healthcare because Affordable Care Act 290 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 7: payments were not included in the and the president's trip 291 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 7: will be big beautiful bill Act. So the politics of 292 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 7: this are really bad for him right now. This is 293 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 7: the most unpopular war ever according to the New York 294 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 7: Times yesterday, and I don't see them getting better, and 295 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 7: I think they're really hamstrung. They're not going to be 296 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 7: able to say what they believe was the imminent threat 297 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 7: to America because it's likely classified if it's if it 298 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 7: even exists, and so they're really in a big hole 299 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 7: politically and with the public on this. 300 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 2: So, Maura, is this an incursion or an excursion? 301 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 4: I would love to know who in the team decided 302 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 4: that was a good use of term. When you say excursion, 303 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 4: it sounds to me as a you're on a resort 304 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 4: and you're going on a data I mean it just truly, 305 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 4: it truly, And again I think that it really does 306 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 4: harm the messaging across the board when one there's no 307 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 4: consistency to the President's message to the American people about 308 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 4: why we are in this in the first place, And 309 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 4: to your point in talking about was there this imminent 310 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 4: threat and can you describe it to us in more concrete, database, 311 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 4: fact based information, because really right now we're lacking in that, 312 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 4: and I think that's it coupled that with this now 313 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 4: decided actually by saying it's completely almost basically over, and 314 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 4: then the very. 315 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 2: Next day, I think we're having a little issue with 316 00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 2: our connection with Maura, but we'll fix that. Moura come 317 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 2: back to in a second. Doug. The president said straight 318 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 2: out last evening that we've won. He said it a 319 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 2: couple times in a row. We've won. Is this the 320 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 2: mission accomplished moment? 321 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 7: I don't think that they have clear objectives for what 322 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 7: winning looks like. I mean, I think initially he hoped 323 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 7: it would be like Venezuela, but obviously Aron is a 324 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 7: much different context than Venezuela. So they don't have clear objectives. 325 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 7: It's hard to know if they're winning. They're certainly causing 326 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 7: absolute advoc in the economy, and we've talked about oil certainly, 327 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 7: but look, fertilizer prices are going to go up, which 328 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 7: could lead to a two percent increasing food prices and 329 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 7: that's at the heart of the affordability crisis Americans are 330 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 7: already facing. Inflation will likely go up if oil stays 331 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 7: over eighty dollars. So and you know what's interesting is 332 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 7: a lot of these golf economies are going to suffer 333 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 7: a lot and they become a financier of choice for 334 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 7: a lot of big deals in tech and media markets. 335 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,880 Speaker 7: So the cascading consequences of this could last for years, 336 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 7: maybe decades, And it really doesn't seem like the President 337 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 7: had a plan going in, which is very alarming. 338 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,639 Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting. We've heard about fertilizer off the 339 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 2: important feedstock for our food supply. We've established obviously oil 340 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 2: prices and the massive and broad economic impact they can have. 341 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 2: Here we're hearing today about a helium shortage as well, 342 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,640 Speaker 2: doug which you know, you might not be worried about 343 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 2: your kids' birthday party filling up balloons, but you need 344 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 2: helium to do a lot of stuff, including make high 345 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: end semiconductors. So we're hanging up many different corners of 346 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 2: the economy in this very narrow stretch of water. It's 347 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:39,880 Speaker 2: pretty amazing, isn't it. 348 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,200 Speaker 7: It's absolutely amazing, And you know, I guess the President 349 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,959 Speaker 7: said we can't have too many dolls for our children. 350 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 7: Now we can't have floating balloons at our children's birthday 351 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,200 Speaker 7: parties thanks to his speign policy decisions. But look, I mean, 352 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 7: if I showed my eight year old, who's now not 353 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,919 Speaker 7: going to get a floating balloon, a map with the 354 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 7: straight of hor Moves on it, she'd probably be able 355 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 7: to identify that this is a key port of entry 356 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 7: and exit for important goods and services that flow through there. 357 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 7: And you know, to not have considered the fact that 358 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 7: the Iranian regime's natural response to an existential threat would 359 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 7: be to close that that strait is really concerning both 360 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 7: from a strategic perspective for the government and also just 361 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:22,439 Speaker 7: for Americans who are going to be paying higher prices 362 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 7: for everything from helium to gas. 363 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, your daughter must be really good at geography, Doug. 364 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,159 Speaker 2: I will admit, we can try to make sure. Just 365 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 2: to remind all the grown ups here who are who 366 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:34,639 Speaker 2: are watching, so you know, all right, we've established that 367 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 2: this was a weave. Last evening, the President had a 368 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 2: lot of things to say, and when it came to 369 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 2: foreign policy, when it came to affordability, which he also 370 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 2: says that he has won on and he brought up 371 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:50,679 Speaker 2: a whole new level of I guess politics if we 372 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 2: can call it that. He was joined on stage by 373 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,120 Speaker 2: Jake Paul. Do they hang out? 374 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 4: Now? 375 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 2: I didn't know about all of that, Maybe he was 376 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 2: on his show or something. But now, I mean, do 377 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 2: you know who Jake Paul is? 378 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 4: Like? 379 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 2: How do I describe Jake Paul? I would have said, 380 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 2: you know, like the fighter guy. The Influencer playbook got 381 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 2: its arms around this by calling him the Manosphere influencer 382 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 2: turned boxer, and I guess that really is getting to 383 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 2: the heart of the matter. But Donald Trump sees a star. 384 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 2: You're not just a star an elected official in Jake Paul. 385 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 2: Let's bring it back to Kentucky last night. God's got us, 386 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 2: Trump's got us. God bless love you, Kentucky. There he is. Now, 387 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:38,640 Speaker 2: He's a great guy. 388 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 3: He's a courageous guy and a talent guy. 389 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 2: He's a hell of a fighter too, by the way, 390 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 2: And I just want to say, I predict. 391 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 3: I'm going to make a prediction that you will be 392 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 3: in the not too distant future running for political office. 393 00:20:55,320 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 2: And you have my complete and total endorsement. Okay, Okay, Mara, 394 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 2: I bet you know, Jake Paul is that the future 395 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 2: of the Republican Party. Oh man, Joe, Lord help me. 396 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 4: I have concerns. I mean, where would he run. Isn't 397 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 4: didn't he change his citizenship to or his location to 398 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 4: Puerto Rico. Isn't he now a resident of Puerto Rico. 399 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 7: I don't know. 400 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 4: I just feel so I don't know where he's gonna run. 401 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,080 Speaker 4: But that's I mean, if he wants to. By all means, 402 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,120 Speaker 4: it's important to have a fair and free democracy. 403 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 7: And I encourage. 404 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 4: Anyone who is interested in running for office to do 405 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 4: so if they have a reason to. 406 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 1: Run and what they want to run on. 407 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 4: I have concerns just generally that this is another rally 408 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 4: while we're also at war, and I think that there 409 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:40,360 Speaker 4: is just this. 410 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 2: Fortunately, Donald Trump loves to. 411 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 4: Be surrounded by strong men, and he thinks or who 412 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 4: he thinks are strong men, and it's an image thing, 413 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,880 Speaker 4: and it takes away the serious as of what's going 414 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 4: on here because he constantly does things that really do 415 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 4: fly in the face of what is happening on the ground. 416 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 4: But also, you know, overseas, and I think he's losing 417 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,679 Speaker 4: some people in his So maybe Jake Paul has the manosphere, 418 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 4: but he's also losing a lot of people by downplaying things, so. 419 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 7: Should be worried about that. 420 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 2: It's the brother Logan Paul. I'm being told as the 421 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 2: one who went to Puerto Rico. So they look the same. 422 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 2: They wout thirty two million dollar crib in Puerto Rico. 423 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 2: Amazing the stuff that you learn on this broadcast, Doug, 424 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,680 Speaker 2: You're saved by the bell. Stay with us on Balance 425 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 2: of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. 426 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 427 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 428 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,639 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 429 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 430 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 431 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 8: Joining us now here on Bloomberg TV and Radio is 432 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 8: the former Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Michael Oran, Ambassador. 433 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 2: Thank you very much for your time. 434 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 8: We began this segment a few minutes ago with the President, 435 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 8: President Trump last night saying that this war is already won. 436 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 8: Is the US's definition of winning the same as Israel's. 437 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 9: A very good question. Good to be with you. The 438 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,479 Speaker 9: question is being asked by many Israelis today. 439 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 10: Israel had very specific goals to certainly prevent Iran from 440 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 10: rebuilding his nuclear program, to deny the Iran the ability 441 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 10: to manufacture these very very large missiles that have been 442 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 10: hitting Israel, about each one with about a ton of 443 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:32,919 Speaker 10: exclusives in their warhead, and finally to cease bring about 444 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 10: the cessation of Iranian support for terrorist proxies throughout them. 445 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 10: At least they're trying to destroy us even tonight, and 446 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 10: originally that was also America's position. I don't think that 447 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 10: the Israel would agree that almost all the targets have 448 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 10: been destroyed in Iran, and I think that the issue 449 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 10: is in the end, what does the day after look like. Tonight, 450 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:57,400 Speaker 10: the Iranian president issued basically conditions to the United States 451 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 10: saying that there has to be just an unconditional sea fire. 452 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 9: But the UN, I. 453 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 10: Says, has to pay reparations to Iran, and the ISAs 454 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 10: has the issue guarantees that Iran will never again be attacked. 455 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:09,440 Speaker 10: So that gives you, I think, an idea where the 456 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 10: Iranian mindset is they do not believe they're on the 457 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:13,719 Speaker 10: birth defeat. 458 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 2: Okay, well, ambassador, and thank you again for joining us 459 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. You have suggested that there 460 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 2: will be no Mount Surabachi moment in this conflict, referring 461 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 2: to the flag raising on Ewo Jima. When will then, 462 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 2: how will we know that this war is won? 463 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 9: Well, there'll be one of two ways. 464 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 10: One of the Irani regime says, Okay, we're not going 465 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 10: to make a nuclear weapon, We're not going to make 466 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 10: ballistic missiles, thinking hit is, we're not going to support 467 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:46,880 Speaker 10: terror anymore, or barring that, a popular uprising or perhaps 468 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 10: even a coup within the regime, within the ranks of 469 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 10: the IRGC or perhaps the army now to achieve that 470 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 10: it may be a long term propositions. It'll be questioned 471 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 10: whether the president and the people United States are up 472 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 10: for that. And here the model would not be it 473 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 10: would not be Iraq in Afghanistan, those forever wars, but 474 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 10: really the Cold War where the United States remained very 475 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 10: steadfast over a long period of time and brought about 476 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:14,920 Speaker 10: the fall of the Soviet Union. 477 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:20,159 Speaker 8: Well, that's incredible to consider, because then we are talking 478 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:25,360 Speaker 8: quite a longer time horizon than the Trump administration is suggesting. 479 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 8: Knowing that the administration in recent days has been very 480 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 8: careful to say regime change essentially is not what they 481 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 8: are seeking, but it would be a welcome outcome if 482 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 8: it indeed happens. From Israel's perspective, knowing the son of 483 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 8: the late Ayatola is now in power, we got our 484 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,679 Speaker 8: first statement from him today. Is it going to be 485 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,880 Speaker 8: acceptable to Israel for the younger Haminees to still be 486 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 8: in power in Iran? Or would you anticipate that until 487 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 8: that situation changes, Israel at least will declare that it 488 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:54,120 Speaker 8: is not over. 489 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 9: I think, well, it's the person. It's his position. 490 00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 10: If his position is to maintain Iran's campaign, which began 491 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 10: back in nineteen seventy nine and reiterated every day since then, 492 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,680 Speaker 10: to destroy the state of Israel, then the new Supreme Leader, 493 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 10: which stuff I, will also be considered an enemy and 494 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 10: by the way, legitimate target for Israel. And that's certainly 495 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:22,159 Speaker 10: that is our unassailable right to pursue that. If the 496 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 10: Supreme Leader will come out and say, in one way 497 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 10: or another, Okay, we're going to change direction and we're 498 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 10: not going to seek the destruction of Israel in our 499 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,439 Speaker 10: neighbors or the United States of America, it might be 500 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,640 Speaker 10: something different. I just don't see that happening. I think 501 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 10: that those three goals of destroying Israel in the United 502 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,399 Speaker 10: States and dominating the Middle East are in the DNA 503 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,400 Speaker 10: of this regime and almost impossible for them to change. 504 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,240 Speaker 2: Interesting ambassador. With that said, there are multiple reports today, 505 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 2: including one from Reuters that finds US intelligence indicates Iran's 506 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 2: leadership is still largely intact and not at risk of collapse, 507 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 2: with a multitude of intelligence reports pointing out a consistent 508 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 2: analysis that the regime is not in danger and retains 509 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,879 Speaker 2: control of the Iranian public. Is it possible to change 510 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 2: that dynamic without going in on the ground. 511 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,240 Speaker 10: It is, but again it's a long term I referenced 512 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:18,320 Speaker 10: earlier the Cold War. I think that at some point 513 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 10: the intense military stage of this campaign will end, that 514 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 10: Iran's missile launchers and drone launchers and factories will be destroyed. 515 00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 10: And I think that's happening slowly but surely every single day, 516 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 10: and eventually they'll run out of these missile launchers and 517 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,280 Speaker 10: the drones, and then the United States Qulit impose a 518 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,199 Speaker 10: very punishing and strict naval blockade on Iran ensure that 519 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 10: not a drop of oil gets out, certainly no munitions 520 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 10: will get in, and then over the course of a 521 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 10: certain period of time, probably a protracted period of time, 522 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:54,120 Speaker 10: the Iranian regime will finally wither on the vine and 523 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 10: be in a position to be overthrown either by the 524 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 10: people or by elements within the regime itself. 525 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,879 Speaker 8: When we consider Ambassador that this is no longer just 526 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,199 Speaker 8: combat operations in and around Iran. Iran obviously has a 527 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 8: cast a wide net in terms of retaliation to other 528 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 8: goal states, even as far as Turkey. Bernado has had 529 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 8: to intervene. But Israel also has looked to the north, 530 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 8: and there is active firing between Israel and Lebanon and 531 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:24,159 Speaker 8: has belaus specifically, even if there is some kind of 532 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 8: resolution with Iran the Islamic regime itself, what of that conflict, 533 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 8: how is that brought to an end? 534 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:33,920 Speaker 9: Well, that's a very pertinent question tonight. 535 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,040 Speaker 10: I was in the North yesterday and situation there remains 536 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 10: very dire. Last night that the North was hit by about 537 00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 10: two hundred and fifty rockets from Lebanon. 538 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 9: Some there were quite long range, not just striking the 539 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 9: North but also centatral Israel. 540 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 10: And so I think that the goal there would have 541 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 10: to be that even if the United States says okay, 542 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 10: really for a ceasefire with Iran, the Israel has to 543 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 10: insist on pressing the campaign against Tisbola. 544 00:28:58,240 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 9: And there's very specific reason for this. 545 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 10: Much of these really north has been rendered uninhabitable by 546 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 10: these missile attacks. And unless his Bullo is decisively defeated 547 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,080 Speaker 10: and in a way that the Lebanese government can regain 548 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 10: control over its own territory, particularly in the south, those 549 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 10: areas in the northern Israel will remain. Some of these 550 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 10: cities or ghost cities. It's quite quite disparate. So that 551 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,240 Speaker 10: is an intolera situation for any sovereign state, certainly for 552 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:25,480 Speaker 10: the State of Israel. 553 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 9: And we hope that the United. 554 00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 10: States will continue to give us the very green light 555 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 10: we received up to now in combating his. 556 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 2: BULLA ambassador with regard to the Iranian regime, I noticed 557 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 2: a post on Twitter that was retweeted reposted by our 558 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 2: ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz. It's from author Saul Sadka, 559 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 2: who writes the regime's top brass seems to have decamped 560 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 2: to the distant city of mashads as far away from 561 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,440 Speaker 2: the US bases and carriers and from Israel as you 562 00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 2: can get without actually fleeing to Afghanistan. Heard that report, 563 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 2: is that the case, and the ambassador retweets writing, if 564 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 2: only we still had Babra Mare base, do you agree? 565 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 10: I don't know about Bigram Air Base, but I wouldn't 566 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:17,240 Speaker 10: doubt that the key leaders of the regime, including the 567 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 10: Supreme Vid himself, are either very very deep underground or 568 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 10: as far away from the combat areas as possible. There 569 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 10: have been dozens of these leaders who have been eliminated, 570 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 10: many forty of them on the first day of the war. 571 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 9: And they're all legitimate targets. 572 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:35,640 Speaker 10: And as we know, Iran is deeply, deeply penetrated by 573 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 10: the intelligence services of both the United States and Israel, 574 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 10: and we tend to know where people are sleeping at night, 575 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 10: where people are having lunch during the day, and they 576 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 10: must be in a situation of constant fear and constant paranoia, 577 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 10: quite legitimately about who in their entourage is leaking and 578 00:30:55,360 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 10: giving information to the Israelis into the CIA and targeting them. 579 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 8: It's incredible to consider, Ambassador. Finally, before we let you go, 580 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:09,200 Speaker 8: we've obviously heard repeatedly conflicting timelines from President Trump as 581 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:12,920 Speaker 8: to the duration we can expect for this conflict. At 582 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,840 Speaker 8: this point, nearly two weeks in, would your guest be 583 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 8: that this is still weeks more ahead of us, or 584 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 8: could it be months or longer. 585 00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:22,760 Speaker 10: I really can't answer that for the United States, and 586 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:24,360 Speaker 10: I only to answer it for the people of Israel. 587 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 10: We are sustaining nightly, daily rocket attacks. I run from 588 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 10: where I'm talking to you now into the bomb shelter 589 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,680 Speaker 10: next to me several times during the day, and two 590 00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 10: nights ago it went on all night. 591 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,240 Speaker 9: We're nowhere near tired, We're nowhere near breaking. 592 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 10: We are a very resilient population, very early society, and 593 00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 10: we know that we have no choice in this war, 594 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 10: whether fighting against the run or fighting against his balla. 595 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 9: We're in it because there really is no out. 596 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,400 Speaker 10: Then, I say this has a different set of considerations, 597 00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,640 Speaker 10: It has political considerations. It is far from the Middle East. 598 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 10: But I would only stress that if the war ends 599 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 10: with Iran basically control all the straits of her moves, 600 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 10: you're on having humbled oil producers around them, at least 601 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 10: having even humbled NATO, because NATO hasn't responded, that that 602 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:12,000 Speaker 10: will have very far reaching ramifications for American security, and 603 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,800 Speaker 10: Iran will rebuild and rebuild its capacities, and someday, someday 604 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:19,280 Speaker 10: will threaten the United States much more eminently, and the 605 00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,360 Speaker 10: time to address that threat its threat is not in 606 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 10: years to come, but now. 607 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 2: Well. We appreciate your spending time with us and hope 608 00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 2: you stay safe. Ambassador, come back and see us again. 609 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:36,280 Speaker 2: Michael Orin, former Israeli Ambassador to the United States, thanks 610 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:39,400 Speaker 2: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure 611 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or 612 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us 613 00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 2: live every weekday from Washington, DC at New Time Eastern 614 00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:49,920 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.