WEBVTT - Fed Stays in Holding Pattern, Election Legal Issues 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:03.240 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:05.200 we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of 0:00:05.200 --> 0:00:08.920 business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:12.160 in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.000 the power of Business Week reporters and editors. You can 0:00:15.000 --> 0:00:18.720 download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.000 If you can also listen to our radio show at 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:23.759 two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, and be sure to 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:27.040 watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:29.880 The Fed holding rates near zero, no change in the 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:32.920 bond buying pace, but this was widely expected. Here we 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:36.760 are just two days after election. Let's talk a little 0:00:36.760 --> 0:00:39.040 bit about this decision or what we really need to 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:41.479 see or expect to see from the Fed over the 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:44.159 next few weeks. Let's get the Business Week agenda. Bloomberg 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:48.000 News Global Economics and Policy Editor Kathleen Hayes is with us, 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:52.640 and she is there in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Hey, Kathleen, Um, 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:55.800 we weren't expecting any surprises, correct, Well, of course, it's 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:57.480 hard to expect a suppress Now I know what you mean. 0:00:57.520 --> 0:01:00.160 We figured, look, they're they're kind of stuck with what 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:02.600 they've got. Let me start though, by pointing something out, 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:07.960 because right before two o'clock I noted there's a very 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:11.080 small sell off today in bonds, but it's gotten a 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:14.800 little bit deeper. For example, the benchmark tenure, which was 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:17.679 down to thirty seconds, now down five thirty seconds. The 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:20.680 thirty year was down one thirty second, it's down six 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:22.959 thirty seconds. So maybe a little bit of upward pressure 0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:27.200 on yields is a disappointment because maybe nobody expected the 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:30.679 Fed would say, hey, we're ready to start increasing our 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:35.479 bond purchases, but they what they did repeat is hey, 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:37.039 we're going to keep it where it is for now, 0:01:37.040 --> 0:01:39.080 which is a hundred and twenty billion dollars a month, 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:42.200 eighty billion of treasuries, forty billion of mortgage backed securities. 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:46.240 And because when you know, coming into the elections, when 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:49.680 people were betting pretty heavily on a blue wave, that 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:52.360 would lead to a lot of fiscal stimulus, more than 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:55.880 if if Trump stayed in the White House, etcetera. We 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:59.600 saw the curve steepening, we saw long term yields going up. 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:01.760 But people we're saying, well, if nothing else. The Fed's 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:04.040 got to make it clear that they're going to work 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:06.320 against it if they have to. Well, what they're saying 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.760 so far today is don't have to do it yet. 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:10.800 So I think, Carol, this will be one of the 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:12.760 big questions at the top of the list for j 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:16.000 Powell when he starts that press conference at two thirty Eastern. 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:17.919 And maybe he just didn't want to stir the pot 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:19.600 in a in a week where the pot has been 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:23.080 stirred a lot. And having said that, Kathleen, he you know, 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:26.120 they fed another headline. They're going to continue to uh 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:29.320 focus obviously and watch the virus. They said the virus 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.280 will continue to weigh on economic activity. The virus to 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:35.720 pose considerable risks to the medium term outlook. They say 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:39.799 the overall financial conditions remain commitative, commodative, and they say 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:44.120 weaker demand, lower all oil prices, holding down inflation, economic 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:47.440 activity and employment have continued to recover. So that's kind 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:51.799 of their snapshot picture. Well, they've been saying, I would say, 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:55.840 pretty unanimously since March. Uh. In fact, you're making me 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.359 think of when I interviewed Jim Bullard from the St. 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:01.359 Louis FED and Rob A. Problem within two well one 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:04.359 day and then the next one, uh, you know, and 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:06.799 that was just after the emergency meeting where they started 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:09.400 cutting raids and they said, it's all about the virus. 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:12.360 You know, the unemployment headlines, the payrolls headlines don't mean 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:14.320 as much as the virus headlines. I think that started 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:17.520 to shift because the US economy is in recovery. The 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:21.480 job recovery seems to have slowed down, but that focus 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.160 till tomorrow. Right, Let's see if it continue, if the 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:27.480 economy at least continue to create jobs or not a 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:29.760 lot of people on unemployment, A lot of people go 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:32.440 going on the longer term unemployment, so that's still not 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:35.680 a positive sign. But that's about the virus. And that's 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:39.800 another reason where the FED would say, until this health 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.720 crisis is over, we can't we're not going to consider 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:46.120 doing any change in policy. Right, and the FEDS saying 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:47.920 that the path of recovery depending on the course of 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:51.400 the coronavirus pandemic. They know, we know it, everybody knows it. 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:53.240 But it does feel like Dave Wilson, come on in 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:56.800 Bloomberg Stocks columnist and editor watching the equity it feels 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:58.760 like equity markets kind of forgot that we are in 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:01.720 the midst of a pandemic. This week, well, it sure does. 0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:04.920 I mean, you really saw a recovery from you know, 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:08.119 when day remembered last week and stocks really took a hit. 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:11.880 And today it's interesting because you know, the criticism about 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:14.480 yesterday's advance is that you know, you have the SMP 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:16.640 five hundred up more than two percent, and there are 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:19.880 actually more stocks in the index down than up by 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:23.240 some of the UH research I saw, I mean, that 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:25.880 was the first time it ever happened. And so today 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:28.440 what do you have, Uh, you know, SMP five hundred 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:31.040 up more than two percent again this time around, though 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:33.600 you have close to nine stocks up in the SMP 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:36.479 bile hunted for everyone that's down. So it's clear that 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:39.400 it's a blood based advanced this time around. Uh. You know, 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:42.520 the s and people a hundred rising toward its highs 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:45.600 of the day after the results of the FED meeting 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:47.839 were released. And if you look what's going on today, 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:50.320 it's a lot of the economically sensitive areas of the 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:53.599 market kind of leading the way, notably raw material producers 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:57.400 UH with gain for their index of four point seven 0:04:57.400 --> 0:04:59.680 percent at the moment, I mean all eleven of the 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:04.000 main texts are higher, but the raw material producers certainly 0:05:04.040 --> 0:05:06.840 jump out of today's trading. Listen, Kathleen, I just when 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:09.680 we think about Fed policy, you know, is it is 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:12.000 there a possibility I was listening to a guest that 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:14.320 David Weston head on, you know, the possibility that we 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:17.040 go back into negative rates or the Fed will need 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:20.560 to be more aggressive depending on where the economy goes. Well, 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.760 they keep saying they have more tools up until now 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:27.240 beneficials from J. Paul doesn't matter almost who you ask. 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:30.360 They're not fans of negative rates. They go right to 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:32.760 money market funds, for example, would really mess up that 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:35.400 market if you, uh, potentially if you if you're going 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:38.440 to move in that direction. Uh. And then beyond that, 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:41.719 I think the thing people might start talking about more 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:44.799 is yield curve control. Because if you want to officially 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.080 add a tool, I mean, if you're buying bonds and 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:49.799 you want to keep yields from right, you know, raising 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:52.680 too much, that's yes start of I think it's kind of, 0:05:52.839 --> 0:05:55.599 you know, the precursor of Yelker control. But to take 0:05:55.600 --> 0:05:58.279 it a step further and to target, make a target 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:00.640 for the tenure yield for example, and say we're going 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:02.920 to make sure it doesn't go above that. That would 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:04.800 be a step. I think the problem for the FED 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:08.919 right now, or the challenge is that sure bring another 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:12.680 tool in. As long as there's so many people unemployed 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:14.599 and a lot of people don't want to go back 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:16.760 to work, or their jobs aren't even there to go 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:20.640 back to, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Any tool is going to 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:23.920 have a tough time doing very much. But in addition 0:06:23.920 --> 0:06:26.719 though that, the bond purchases, I think people figure you 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:29.279 can just flat out increase the amount. But it is 0:06:29.320 --> 0:06:31.520 as you started out the beginning, I think hitting at 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:35.279 we're in an election week, not an election day anymore, right, 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:37.839 and the middle of all this, the Fed's best bet 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:40.640 is just to sit tight and wait for the December meeting. Well, 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:42.120 and the one thing that we're going to talk about 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:45.240 over the next few hours this split income, this split 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:48.480 outcome that we could potentially see if Joe Biden gets 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:53.120 the White House, if we have still a Republican Republican 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:57.200 controlled Senate, that the chance of a big stimulus package 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:00.640 is less likely. You know. So you you wonder, then 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:03.440 the FED watching this and what what more can they do? 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:05.440 And he can say and J. Powe will surely get 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:07.880 I can't imagine j Pie not feeling like he could 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:11.320 say today, well, no matter what happens, um, we still 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:15.400 need stimulus. He could certainly repeat that. I you know, 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:18.880 Mitch McConnell, who presumably maybe the SENTI majority leader or 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:21.440 may not depending on all it goes, right, said when 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:25.000 when they get back, when Congress reconvened, job one is 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:29.040 going to be a rescue package. Now, the trillion dollar 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:31.600 figure was on the table at one point, right, the 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:36.560 five billion that he floated before the election seemed really light. Um, 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:39.559 you know, so so I think I'm an optimist, Carol. 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:41.720 So I think it may not be two point two trillion, 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:43.800 which the Democrats have pushed hard for, lead by Nancy 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:46.440 Pelosians just last seats and you know, Democratic seats in 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:49.040 the House. But maybe maybe because something I could trillion. 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:51.720 That's that's not nothing, No, it's not nothing. There's a 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:54.360 lot of zeros in that number. Dave Wilson, just quickly 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:56.760 tease your chart because it has kind of an election 0:07:56.800 --> 0:08:00.360 related I feel like our administration related theme. Well, it's 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:03.480 all about private prison stocks. President Trump tried to prop 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:06.560 up the industry not long after he got the into office. 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:09.000 Didn't work out so well, and now you got the 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.360 election results and things are getting worse for those stocks. 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:13.640 All right, We're looking forward to that. Hey, team, thank 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:17.440 you so much, really appreciated setting the agenda on this Thursday. 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:21.000 Bloomberg News Global Economics and Policy Editor Kathleen Hayes back 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:23.840 in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio and Bloomberg Stocks editor 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:27.480 Dave Wilson. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:30.960 from Bloomberg Radio. We're gonna bring you the latest on 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:34.319 this week's election as the counting of the votes continues, 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:37.120 the lawsuits continue, and we're all awaiting to find out 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:41.160 who will take up at Pennsylvania Avenue come January. We'll 0:08:41.240 --> 0:08:43.240 joining me today as we go through it all over 0:08:43.280 --> 0:08:46.320 the next few hours. Kevin CEREALI He is Bloomberg News Chief, 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:49.080 Washington correspondent of Bloomberg Radio and TV host. You know 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:51.720 him well a Bloomberg sound on on Bloomberg nine and 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.240 I one in Washington, d C. He joins us from there. 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:57.079 Juno Rosso also with US legal analyst and host of 0:08:57.080 --> 0:09:00.600 Bloomberg Law on Bloomberg Radio every evening. He she joins 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:03.480 us on the phone in New York. So, Kevin, let 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:06.000 me kick it off with you. Where are we? I mean, 0:09:06.080 --> 0:09:08.480 Nancy Lione just gave us a good rundown of some 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:10.800 of the key states and what's going on. But what 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:13.079 are you watching? What are you hearing also from the 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:16.079 Biden and Trump camps. Well, look, I think I think 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:18.120 first things first, it's great to be here with you, Carol, 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:22.200 great to have Ben. That beyond that, all eyes are 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:24.920 going to be on Nevada, right and Clark County, Nevada, 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:28.160 because that specifically where we're still getting some of the 0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:30.559 vote tallies. Now, last I checked, just before I came 0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:33.120 on air, I dove into the Bloomberg terminal and I 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:37.440 looked at the actual vote tally. Uh and Joe Biden 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:41.360 is leading by about twelve thousand votes. That's a razor 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:46.480 thin margin. Uh. So beyond that, the president's former director 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:50.880 of National Intelligence, Rick Renel, he is in Nevada right now. 0:09:51.320 --> 0:09:54.520 Uh and fully just breeched reporters and said, essentially, they 0:09:54.520 --> 0:09:57.240 are fully prepared to take this thing through the courts. 0:09:57.240 --> 0:10:02.080 They're making this legal argument essentially that they believe there's 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:05.920 been a number of votes cast in Nevada by people 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:07.920 from out of state, so they don't feel that those 0:10:08.000 --> 0:10:10.680 votes should be counted in the Nevada election. That's what's 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:13.360 going on in that state. We should note just the 0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:16.880 electoral math right now. Joe Biden, based upon the Bloomberg 0:10:16.880 --> 0:10:20.200 Electoral map total is that two hundred and sixty four, 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:24.079 which puts him just six electoral votes away a k a. 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:27.360 The size of Nevada away from reaching the magic number 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:31.320 of two hundred and seventy. The Trump campaign, for their part, UH, 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:33.720 they have said that they're going to pursue legal action 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:37.480 in Pennsylvania, in Wisconsin, UH, and even to some extent 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:41.200 maybe even in North Carolina. So that's where things stand 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:44.760 as of now. Obviously, as we've been reporting for the 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:49.199 past week, really this week, we're urging patients caution as 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:51.319 as we sort through all of this. But as we 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:53.280 get the developments, will will break them in real time. 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:54.880 I want to get to June, but just remind me 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:57.400 Kevin d j T the president, where is he in 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:01.200 terms of electoral votes right now? Well, right now he 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:04.360 is still a couple of votes away. I believe the 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:07.920 last I checked. It was to eighteen for for President Trump. Um, 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:11.680 and uh so that's where he is right now, but 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:13.320 he would have to win. He still has a shot. 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:16.439 We should mention if he if he wins Georgia, North 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:21.360 Carolina as well as Pennsylvania, that would put him, uh 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:23.560 with a path. It's just you know, it's you know, 0:11:24.040 --> 0:11:26.040 they're gonna have to pursue legal action. Yeah, it's strict 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:28.520 your path. I think that's safe to say. Yeah, exactly. So, June, 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:30.480 come on in. I mean, you watch the legal world, 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:33.079 you know it so well. Kevin talked about some of 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:35.520 the lawsuits that we've been seeing fast, you know, fast 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:38.440 and furiously crossing the bloomberg. You know, what do we 0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:41.840 need to know about the Trump team and the lawsuits 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:45.600 that are out there, Well, they are filing a lot 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:47.640 of lawsuits, that's the first thing you need to know. 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:49.520 And they're filing them, you know, in a lot of 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:52.280 these states where the vote is still being counted, or 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:55.040 in other states for example like Michigan. And there are 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.360 different reasons for the lawsuits, but most of the time 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:01.240 they're being turned away by the it's for example, they 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:05.280 tried to stop the ballot counting in Michigan yesterday, Well, 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:09.559 a judge said, the essence of the count is completed. 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:12.360 The relief is completely unavailable. So I think any of 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:16.000 their any of their lawsuits to stop the count are 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:19.040 going to have a lot of trouble getting through. And 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.840 also a lot of these other cases you've heard. Kevin 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:24.400 mentioned that there's that they are saying this in about 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.959 Nevada Clark County. But a problem is they're making a 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:30.120 lot of allegations, but when they go into a judge 0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:32.679 to try to prove them, they don't have the evidence 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:36.439 to back them. So you're hearing all kinds of fraud allegations, 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.199 but you know where is the fraud. They alleged that 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:43.120 um in Georgia yesterday that a poll worker had put 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:46.839 the votes that ballots that came in late mixed them 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.679 with the votes of ballots that had come in on time. 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.240 That was proven when it went before a judge not 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:54.160 to be the case. And a lot of the poll 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:59.160 observers actually they found that they look for things and 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.240 they sometimes line things that really aren't there because they're 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:04.959 they're looking. And then today President Trump said there was 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:07.760 a huge victory in Pennsylvania in court. Do you know 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:12.080 what that victory was. The pole observers from the Trump 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.839 campaign were allowed to move from about thirty feet observing 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:18.520 to sixty to six feet up turving, So it was 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.760 And by the way, that's online anyway, so you can 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:25.000 see it online. So that's not a huge victory, right. 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.160 A lot of it goes to transparency, which is what 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.360 the campaigns, both campaigns to be fair, have been pushing 0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:33.000 for all along in this process. I do want to 0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:34.960 bring into the conversation. It's been one of our go 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:38.640 to voices on the campaign in the election, joining June 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:41.520 and Kevin and myself as Bloomberg News political contributor and 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:44.800 I own a college professor of political science, Genzano joining 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:48.480 us once again from New Rochelle, New York. You and 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:50.360 I we've been talking for a long time. We all 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:52.720 have been um. But here we are Thursday, and there 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:54.959 are expectations that this could go on for a few 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:57.640 more days. When you look at where we are in 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:01.880 the race, what comes to mind first and most well, 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.120 you know, a bit still trying to grapple with the fact, 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:07.760 as you mentioned, that we are now on Thursday and 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:10.960 looking like we may not have results in for a 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:13.360 couple of days. You know, going into this, we knew 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:18.240 Pennsylvania may take until Friday. I was probably optimistic um 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:21.800 that it wouldn't come down to Pennsylvania. But at this point, 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.160 I think one thing that comes to mind is the 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:26.800 idea that we are still waiting on results not just 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:32.480 from Pennsylvania, but Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and of course, 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:35.280 you know, depending on who you're listening to, some people 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:37.880 haven't even been you know, quite satisfied with what's coming 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:41.400 out of Arizona at this point. So the closeness as 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.120 we sort of compare this historically to say a two 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.520 thousand in many states, and the fact we're not just 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.320 talking about one state where there maybe you were just 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:54.000 talking about potential contests, legal challenges, but that we're talking 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.120 multiple states, you know, quite a difference, and I think 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.440 that speaks volumes as to where we are at this 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:03.560 point in our country and how divided we are. Hey, Jeannie, 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:06.880 it's uh Kevin here, and let me just correct something 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:10.359 I recently said. Uh, Trump has two hundred and fourteen 0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:13.320 electoral votes. I want to be careful with this, so, 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:17.160 uh Joe Biden has two hundred sixty four six votes 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:20.480 away from the threshold of two seventy. President Trump has 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:23.760 two hundred and fourteen electoral votes. That's where the map 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:25.760 stands right now. And you can follow all of our 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:30.000 election coverage. Mind you on election go on the Bloomberg terminal. Jennie, 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.480 you mentioned Arizona, and I want to pick up on 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.240 that because that has been a conversation that I've been 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:38.160 having with my sources in the President's reelection campaign. They 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:42.040 are really confident that once the math is settled on 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:47.920 Maricopa County, that they will have the votes to win Arizona. 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:51.320 Explain to us where things stand right now in this 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:54.280 key battleground state that the networks and the associated press 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:59.280 have called for, uh, Joe Biden at this point, UM, 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:03.760 So you know, it's it's a fascinating situation in Arizona. UM. 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:08.920 You know, again, we're looking at about six percent um 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:12.720 have been counted already, and we see a very narrow 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:16.920 lead for Joe Biden. UM about depending again on on 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:19.320 what numbers and when they've been refreshed, that you're looking 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:22.480 at about fifty point five percent to forty eight point one. 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.000 It's a little bit bigger than some of the others 0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:27.640 but it's such a critical state because it has eleven 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:31.680 electoral votes. And when some of the you know networks 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.040 and others started calling it, as we talked about on 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:37.600 Tuesday Night Box, and then later the ape started calling 0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:40.440 it a bit early, that really frustrated the president and 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:44.960 his team. UM. And now we are looking to see nobody, 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:46.840 as far as I have have said, and I don't 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:48.680 want to misspeak because I'm trying to keep up with 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:50.760 whatevere everbody is. But nobody, as far as I know, 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:53.240 who called it has taken the call back, which is 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.440 an indication that they feel pretty confident. But I do 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:58.760 think that it is one of those cases where we 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.560 will see legal challenge just from the President's team because 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:04.600 Arizona is such a critical state for the president and 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:08.600 his team. UM. The idea that that goes Biden. Of course, 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:12.200 in two two thousand and sixteen, you had the president 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:16.600 beating Hillary Clinton there about fifty one point one. We're seeing, 0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:19.040 if you believe the numbers of six percent reporting, receive 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:22.560 almost a slip there with Joe Biden. So I think 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:24.679 it's going to be one of the contested states. The 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:28.720 president seems feels like they need that particularly since miss 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.640 At least in my view, Michigan and Wisconsin seems so 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.320 out of grasp to the president even legally at this point. 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:35.840 But I don't want to misspeak on that. You know, 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:38.320 we've talked about Arizona, Nevada, I mean those two counties, 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:40.159 Clark in Maricopa. I mean, these are two of the 0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:42.200 largest counties in the US. So there's a lot of 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:45.400 votes to process, no doubt about it, I do under Genie, 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:48.640 depending on the outcome. One thing to remember here, you 0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:51.920 understand this process. You've studied a lot of elections. I mean, 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:55.439 it's not uncommon, especially if there's a close race, you know, 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.639 to go and check the count and confirm that the 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:03.160 outcome is the outcome. Yeah, it's not unusual, but I 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:05.720 think you know the fact Number one, what is unusual 0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:09.199 as we see so many states so closely, um, you 0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:11.600 know that are so close rather and the other thing 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:14.359 that I think is a bit unusual is the idea 0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:17.400 that you would have so many legal challenges. I don't 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:20.680 think we've seen anything like this, But historically, I don't 0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:22.800 think this is something we should be surprised at because 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.399 this is to a certain extent where we've been moving 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:30.040 since two thousands, you know, in the United States. Unfortunately, 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:33.119 at this point elections have very much moved into the 0:18:33.200 --> 0:18:37.560 court system, and for a democracy, that is a big 0:18:37.640 --> 0:18:40.640 question to think about broader than just this election. Yeah, 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:43.160 democracy can be messy. I do want to mention a headline. 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:44.840 It was about half an hour before we came on 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:48.000 air a Pennsylvania officials saying that most votes may be 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:51.800 counted by today, so continuing to of course count them 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:53.720 a June, come on in on this. You're listening to 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:58.200 our conversation, Hi, Jennie, Well, we're just talking about Pennsylvania. 0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:01.199 Carol said that they're acting that most votes will be 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:05.320 counted by today, and earlier today, Joe Biden's campaign manager 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:09.199 said that Biden is closing in on Trump's lead and 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:11.199 that by the end of the day, Biden is going 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:13.639 to win by a sizable number of votes. I wonder 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:18.480 if you think that's overly optimistic about Pennsylvania. You know, 0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:21.320 that's what I It's such a good question, because that's 0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:24.480 what I have and you know, we've long believed that 0:19:24.560 --> 0:19:27.280 those later votes, the mail in ballots, if you will, 0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:32.680 the absentee ballots with favor President sorry, Vice President Biden 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.360 m because the Democrats had been so careful to get 0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:39.760 their vote out early and same day voting would favor 0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:42.600 the president to a certain extent. So I am not 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:45.520 surprised to hear that. So it's gonna be not just 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:48.680 when people voted, but where the vote count there, where 0:19:48.720 --> 0:19:51.199 they're still voting. And I think as we look like 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:53.960 a place like Pennsylvania, that doesn't surprise me. Nor by 0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:56.800 the way, it doesn't surprise me that the vice president 0:19:56.840 --> 0:19:59.560 is going to get votes out of Georgia as discount continues. 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:02.679 So based on those two factors, so when they voted, 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:05.600 and where they were voting, where the vote count is 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:08.880 still coming from, rather, I think it is not surprising 0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:11.600 that we see a narrowing of the gap. And you know, 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:15.679 I wouldn't want to predict that Biden would overtake the 0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:18.320 Trump in Pennsylvania, but I you know, I think it 0:20:18.440 --> 0:20:22.320 is possible still at this point. And folks, if it 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:25.240 sounds confusing, it's because it is right because the president 0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:28.120 is I mean, I mean, and it even for us 0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:30.760