WEBVTT - Piegza: retail data is stronger

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh, Rio to Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Apen Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm Scarlett fou here

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<v Speaker 1>at Tom Keen. Economic indicators are brought to you by

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<v Speaker 1>Let's check in now with Winnie del Judais for the

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<v Speaker 1>latest economic indicators. Vinnie, Good morning, Scarlett. We have figures

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<v Speaker 1>on GDP. Revised fourth quarter GDP stronger than forecast, an

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<v Speaker 1>increase of one percent and a fourth quarter. Going into

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<v Speaker 1>the report, economists and anticipated a point four percent increase

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<v Speaker 1>the prior number. The prior estimate the government was point

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<v Speaker 1>seven so GDP topping forecasts up one percent. Also some

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<v Speaker 1>advanced trade on merchandise trade deficit January at Widen to

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<v Speaker 1>sixty two point two billion dollars from roughly sixty one

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<v Speaker 1>point five in December. Our first forecast company dealt Judas,

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<v Speaker 1>let's go back to New York. Then he thanks so much,

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<v Speaker 1>Markets move on his yields up for totally risk on

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<v Speaker 1>two year yield explodes up three basis points point seven

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<v Speaker 1>eight uh and with some cursed steepening as well. We're

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<v Speaker 1>not back out over a hundred beefs, but certainly a

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<v Speaker 1>constructive field of that features up twelve down, features up

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<v Speaker 1>one of seven lindsay, diega and where this is stiffil Nicholas, lindsay,

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<v Speaker 1>you gotta help me here. All in all, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's been a week a very good economic data or

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<v Speaker 1>at least flat or up. Feel like we just see

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<v Speaker 1>with one statistic um does this sudjust the FED discussion,

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<v Speaker 1>not immediately but in the coming weeks. It really doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>change the story line for the US economy, knowing that

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<v Speaker 1>we've now slowed for back to back quarters from that

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<v Speaker 1>peak of activity in the second quarter. But even a

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<v Speaker 1>small three tents upside revision does reinforce the that the

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<v Speaker 1>economy is still on moderate footing. And remember, against the

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<v Speaker 1>backdrop of stronger inflation data. As we heard from Esther

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<v Speaker 1>George yesterday, there's still a lot of pressure on the

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<v Speaker 1>Fed to give us that second rate near term. Scarlett,

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<v Speaker 1>what I would suggest is Lindsay nails it with the

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<v Speaker 1>word reinforce, right. I think that just totally captures the

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<v Speaker 1>week's tone. And we should also mention that the consensus

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<v Speaker 1>estimate here for g d P was for four tents

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<v Speaker 1>of one percent, so a slower piece of growth, and

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<v Speaker 1>in getting that one percent advance, we not only defied expectations,

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<v Speaker 1>but we built on the original UH regional report. Tom

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<v Speaker 1>Lindsey stated, the consumer here, a little white personal consumption

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<v Speaker 1>comes in, but still is it led us always by

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<v Speaker 1>sixty seventy percent of the economy. Yeah, we see consumption

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<v Speaker 1>revised down slightly from two point two to two percent,

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<v Speaker 1>but again we're really splitting hairs there. We know the

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<v Speaker 1>consumer began to tighten their purse strings at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. The good news is the retail data

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<v Speaker 1>does seem to be a bit stronger as we rounded

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<v Speaker 1>out into the new year. But from the sets point

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<v Speaker 1>of view, again that this just solidifies the idea that

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer is still on moderate footing. Hopefully gaining momentum

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<v Speaker 1>as we started to see improvement in that wage component.

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<v Speaker 1>Into your reinforcing discussion on reinforce reinforce, how many I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I hate the power game, folks, but it actually works here.

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<v Speaker 1>How many rate rises this year? Are you migrating back

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<v Speaker 1>to three or four? We have not deviated. We're still

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<v Speaker 1>looking for three rate increases because remember, it's not about

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<v Speaker 1>the lack of improvement that we've seen in the data.

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<v Speaker 1>It's about the sets expectations, and the data has not

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<v Speaker 1>materially deteriorated, and so that has not, in our opinion,

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<v Speaker 1>adjusted downwards the feeds expectations for growth two to three

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<v Speaker 1>year hends. Remember, they want to get out ahead of inflation,

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<v Speaker 1>and so they're going to have to begin to continue

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<v Speaker 1>excuse me, continue to give us gradual rate increases along

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<v Speaker 1>the way. I'm really interested. Scarlett in the Gloom Crew

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<v Speaker 1>essays this weekend, how do they write about gloom given

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<v Speaker 1>the sum of data we've seen well at this point,

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<v Speaker 1>for instance, to this GDP report which indicates that the

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<v Speaker 1>fourth quarter, uh, it's the faster than initially estimated because

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<v Speaker 1>of a higher value of business inventors and at the

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<v Speaker 1>same time, They're also point to wages and salaries rising

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<v Speaker 1>eighty three point three billion dollars, which was revised down

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<v Speaker 1>from the eighty nine point two billion dollars initially reported. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you, lindsay, how do you factor in export

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<v Speaker 1>dynamics into Why will see plus I plus G plus

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<v Speaker 1>n X I mean, do you just forget about it

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<v Speaker 1>or is that valid? No? It certainly is valid. And

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<v Speaker 1>one of the components that you see. It was a

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<v Speaker 1>significant revision is imports. Now, of course this will be

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<v Speaker 1>a net positive to the GP calculation when you're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about importing less from abroad, but it does speak to

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that the consumer is still on very moderate footing.

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<v Speaker 1>If the U S consumer was as strong as I

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<v Speaker 1>think the Fed would have us believe, you would have

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<v Speaker 1>seen in cart growth remain positive through the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the year. But that's now been revised down from one

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<v Speaker 1>point one to negative point six. And as Tom as

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<v Speaker 1>you mentioned, we see selling in the two year with

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<v Speaker 1>the yield spiking up to seventy five basis point nine

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<v Speaker 1>to be exact, lindsay, what does this do to all

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<v Speaker 1>the conversation about a recession? We are we're bound for

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<v Speaker 1>recession there's a recession looming. Does this take that off

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<v Speaker 1>the table. I don't know if it takes it off

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<v Speaker 1>the table for those that have initiated that discussion, but

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<v Speaker 1>I think it certainly gives us another data point to suggest, no,

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is not falling off the table. Still tepid.

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<v Speaker 1>Mind you remember, we still can't gain momentum beyond this

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<v Speaker 1>stagnant two percent growth range. But I think it does

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<v Speaker 1>alleviate some of the talking points for the recession area

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<v Speaker 1>possibility near term. In our final final minute with Lindsay,

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<v Speaker 1>we go to where a few fail to tread with fear.

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<v Speaker 1>We look at real final sales. What is real final sales? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>real final sales is essentially looking at the growth rates

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<v Speaker 1>less inventory is. We want to take out that very

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<v Speaker 1>volatile inventory cycle, and what we see is that real

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<v Speaker 1>final sales were actually unchanged in this report. So essentially

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<v Speaker 1>we shifted around some of the growth from category to category.

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<v Speaker 1>But when we strip out that boltle inventory cycle, real

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<v Speaker 1>final sales unchanged at one at the end of the year,

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<v Speaker 1>So again reiterating the story that the US economy did

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<v Speaker 1>lose momentum at the end of the year, but still

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<v Speaker 1>very much on positive legs with Stephile Nicholas. Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much, greatly appreciated. That's when it's Scarlett. I'm looking

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<v Speaker 1>for the nominal GDP number here in the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the first table that comes out, still looking for it,

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<v Speaker 1>but you know, at the end of the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the day, the sub four percent nominal GDP gets your attention.

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<v Speaker 1>The core PC number loss at the sense attention. That's

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<v Speaker 1>the measure that they track most closely per inflation, and

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<v Speaker 1>that increased one point a little bit faster than the

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<v Speaker 1>shoe that was reported earlier. I think I got a

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<v Speaker 1>run rate to current GDP, which is economic talk phenomenal

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<v Speaker 1>of two point zero percent. That certainly doesn't get it done.

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<v Speaker 1>Futures up thirteen. This hour of surveillance is brought to

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<v Speaker 1>you by Volvo Cars, White Planes. Visit Volvo Cars, White

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<v Speaker 1>Plaines dot Com. John Tucker has Our News and a

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<v Speaker 1>scarlet and Tom Marco Rubio unleashing campaign's worth of harsh

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<v Speaker 1>criticism on Donald Trump at the final Republican debate before

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<v Speaker 1>Tuesday's crucial primaries. The problem maybe that it took ten

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<v Speaker 1>debates and three Trump victories get Rubio fired up. United

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<v Speaker 1>Nations Security Council this weekend considers tougher sanctions on North

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<v Speaker 1>Korea and curtailing that regimes nuclear ambitions after the country

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<v Speaker 1>we conducted a fourth nuclear task at rocket launch earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this year. U S officials say the Pentagon has launched

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<v Speaker 1>a newly aggressive campaign of cyber attacks against the Islamic

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<v Speaker 1>State lootants. It's a targeted after you to eroad the

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<v Speaker 1>group's abilities to use social media and the Internet. And yes,

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<v Speaker 1>Oscar weekend, Tom New Regency Productions could score a rare

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<v Speaker 1>three peek at the Academy Awards Sunday with a win

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<v Speaker 1>for The Revenant The Frontier at Drama with Leo DiCaprio.

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<v Speaker 1>The company, along with the distributed twentieth Century Fox, already

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<v Speaker 1>holds the last two Best Picture oscars with Birdman and

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<v Speaker 1>Twelve Years a Slave from I haven't seen any of them.

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<v Speaker 1>Later in their hour here we got ninety minutes left

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<v Speaker 1>a Bloomberg surveillance. We will speak with surveillance celebrity Loadstone,

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<v Speaker 1>Scarlet Food about this, John Tucker, thank you so much, Scarlet.

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<v Speaker 1>We have sports we do. It is time now for

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<v Speaker 1>the Katina Auto Group Bloomberg NBC Sports update. All right, Scarlett.

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<v Speaker 1>All three local hockey teams were on the road last night.

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<v Speaker 1>Rangers won two one in St. Louis. They were coming

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<v Speaker 1>off a lost in New Jersey. They still have not

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<v Speaker 1>had back to back losses. Mid December, Henrik Lunquist made

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<v Speaker 1>thirty five stents, became the third goalie in NHL history

0:09:05.280 --> 0:09:07.960
<v Speaker 1>to win thirty or more games and at least ten seasons.

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<v Speaker 1>After the Devil's lost badly at Columbus six to one,

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<v Speaker 1>Nick Felino had the hat trick for the Blue Jackets

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<v Speaker 1>in Calgary, the Islanders Thomas Hicky's fourth third period of

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<v Speaker 1>tie the game, and then late in overtime Barras hold

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<v Speaker 1>by all the Calgary line they chased by Fotahan I

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<v Speaker 1>s turned off controlled Stars through the one in Calgary,

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<v Speaker 1>their third straight win and that second stop on this

0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:40.319
<v Speaker 1>club record nine game road trip at one sixteen one

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<v Speaker 1>or six win at Phoenix has lost thirteen in a row.

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<v Speaker 1>NETS made news earlier releasing Joe Johnson, who was his

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<v Speaker 1>fourth seasons, made a lot of money twenty five million

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<v Speaker 1>this year, hit several game winning shots, and Net's never

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<v Speaker 1>one a playoff series with him and certainly won't this year.

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<v Speaker 1>Johnson can have join another team. Many, seeing many teams

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<v Speaker 1>are interested in college roops, went for Seton Hall could

0:09:57.760 --> 0:09:59.920
<v Speaker 1>go a long way towards getting the Pirates too. The

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<v Speaker 1>to the late seventy and fifty two of the Providence

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<v Speaker 1>a week after beating to Paul in its first big

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<v Speaker 1>East win. St. John's lost at the ball eight three

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<v Speaker 1>seventy five with the Bloomberg NBC Sports Up. I'm John

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<v Speaker 1>stick John. Thank you so much. Scarlett. We mentioned to arrangease,

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<v Speaker 1>is he going to be the fun time of hockey?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's it's getting to be the nerve wracking partner. Yeah.

0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:22.040
<v Speaker 1>I actually had not realized that the Leaders had not

0:10:22.080 --> 0:10:23.959
<v Speaker 1>lost back to back classes. It felt like they had

0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:25.840
<v Speaker 1>for a while because your emotions go up and down

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<v Speaker 1>so much. Remember that game that we went to against

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<v Speaker 1>the Canadians, the one that began the awful streak. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>we said, our people made us sit in two different

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<v Speaker 1>parts of medicine. Yeah, I would have caused too much

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<v Speaker 1>of a commotion if we're together. If we'd been together,

0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:38.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, lunchus would have been on. You would have

0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:40.880
<v Speaker 1>been able to concentrate. Well. As it turns out, he

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't able to concentrate because they lost. They lost really badly.

0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:48.800
<v Speaker 1>It was an ugly game. Right now A good Market

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<v Speaker 1>features up fourteen, down, features up one thirty, Scarlet Food

0:10:53.080 --> 0:11:00.880
<v Speaker 1>and Tom Keen on a Friday Bloomberg Surveillance. The Sport's

0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:03.160
<v Speaker 1>report was brought to you by Ray Katina Auto Group.

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