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Speaker 1: Let's check in now with Winnie del Judais for the
Speaker 1: latest economic indicators. Vinnie, Good morning, Scarlett. We have figures
Speaker 1: on GDP. Revised fourth quarter GDP stronger than forecast, an
Speaker 1: increase of one percent and a fourth quarter. Going into
Speaker 1: the report, economists and anticipated a point four percent increase
Speaker 1: the prior number. The prior estimate the government was point
Speaker 1: seven so GDP topping forecasts up one percent. Also some
Speaker 1: advanced trade on merchandise trade deficit January at Widen to
Speaker 1: sixty two point two billion dollars from roughly sixty one
Speaker 1: point five in December. Our first forecast company dealt Judas,
Speaker 1: let's go back to New York. Then he thanks so much,
Speaker 1: Markets move on his yields up for totally risk on
Speaker 1: two year yield explodes up three basis points point seven
Speaker 1: eight uh and with some cursed steepening as well. We're
Speaker 1: not back out over a hundred beefs, but certainly a
Speaker 1: constructive field of that features up twelve down, features up
Speaker 1: one of seven lindsay, diega and where this is stiffil Nicholas, lindsay,
Speaker 1: you gotta help me here. All in all, I think
Speaker 1: it's been a week a very good economic data or
Speaker 1: at least flat or up. Feel like we just see
Speaker 1: with one statistic um does this sudjust the FED discussion,
Speaker 1: not immediately but in the coming weeks. It really doesn't
Speaker 1: change the story line for the US economy, knowing that
Speaker 1: we've now slowed for back to back quarters from that
Speaker 1: peak of activity in the second quarter. But even a
Speaker 1: small three tents upside revision does reinforce the that the
Speaker 1: economy is still on moderate footing. And remember, against the
Speaker 1: backdrop of stronger inflation data. As we heard from Esther
Speaker 1: George yesterday, there's still a lot of pressure on the
Speaker 1: Fed to give us that second rate near term. Scarlett,
Speaker 1: what I would suggest is Lindsay nails it with the
Speaker 1: word reinforce, right. I think that just totally captures the
Speaker 1: week's tone. And we should also mention that the consensus
Speaker 1: estimate here for g d P was for four tents
Speaker 1: of one percent, so a slower piece of growth, and
Speaker 1: in getting that one percent advance, we not only defied expectations,
Speaker 1: but we built on the original UH regional report. Tom
Speaker 1: Lindsey stated, the consumer here, a little white personal consumption
Speaker 1: comes in, but still is it led us always by
Speaker 1: sixty seventy percent of the economy. Yeah, we see consumption
Speaker 1: revised down slightly from two point two to two percent,
Speaker 1: but again we're really splitting hairs there. We know the
Speaker 1: consumer began to tighten their purse strings at the end
Speaker 1: of the year. The good news is the retail data
Speaker 1: does seem to be a bit stronger as we rounded
Speaker 1: out into the new year. But from the sets point
Speaker 1: of view, again that this just solidifies the idea that
Speaker 1: the consumer is still on moderate footing. Hopefully gaining momentum
Speaker 1: as we started to see improvement in that wage component.
Speaker 1: Into your reinforcing discussion on reinforce reinforce, how many I mean,
Speaker 1: I hate the power game, folks, but it actually works here.
Speaker 1: How many rate rises this year? Are you migrating back
Speaker 1: to three or four? We have not deviated. We're still
Speaker 1: looking for three rate increases because remember, it's not about
Speaker 1: the lack of improvement that we've seen in the data.
Speaker 1: It's about the sets expectations, and the data has not
Speaker 1: materially deteriorated, and so that has not, in our opinion,
Speaker 1: adjusted downwards the feeds expectations for growth two to three
Speaker 1: year hends. Remember, they want to get out ahead of inflation,
Speaker 1: and so they're going to have to begin to continue
Speaker 1: excuse me, continue to give us gradual rate increases along
Speaker 1: the way. I'm really interested. Scarlett in the Gloom Crew
Speaker 1: essays this weekend, how do they write about gloom given
Speaker 1: the sum of data we've seen well at this point,
Speaker 1: for instance, to this GDP report which indicates that the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, uh, it's the faster than initially estimated because
Speaker 1: of a higher value of business inventors and at the
Speaker 1: same time, They're also point to wages and salaries rising
Speaker 1: eighty three point three billion dollars, which was revised down
Speaker 1: from the eighty nine point two billion dollars initially reported. Well,
Speaker 1: how do you, lindsay, how do you factor in export
Speaker 1: dynamics into Why will see plus I plus G plus
Speaker 1: n X I mean, do you just forget about it
Speaker 1: or is that valid? No? It certainly is valid. And
Speaker 1: one of the components that you see. It was a
Speaker 1: significant revision is imports. Now, of course this will be
Speaker 1: a net positive to the GP calculation when you're talking
Speaker 1: about importing less from abroad, but it does speak to
Speaker 1: the fact that the consumer is still on very moderate footing.
Speaker 1: If the U S consumer was as strong as I
Speaker 1: think the Fed would have us believe, you would have
Speaker 1: seen in cart growth remain positive through the end of
Speaker 1: the year. But that's now been revised down from one
Speaker 1: point one to negative point six. And as Tom as
Speaker 1: you mentioned, we see selling in the two year with
Speaker 1: the yield spiking up to seventy five basis point nine
Speaker 1: to be exact, lindsay, what does this do to all
Speaker 1: the conversation about a recession? We are we're bound for
Speaker 1: recession there's a recession looming. Does this take that off
Speaker 1: the table. I don't know if it takes it off
Speaker 1: the table for those that have initiated that discussion, but
Speaker 1: I think it certainly gives us another data point to suggest, no,
Speaker 1: the economy is not falling off the table. Still tepid.
Speaker 1: Mind you remember, we still can't gain momentum beyond this
Speaker 1: stagnant two percent growth range. But I think it does
Speaker 1: alleviate some of the talking points for the recession area
Speaker 1: possibility near term. In our final final minute with Lindsay,
Speaker 1: we go to where a few fail to tread with fear.
Speaker 1: We look at real final sales. What is real final sales? Well,
Speaker 1: real final sales is essentially looking at the growth rates
Speaker 1: less inventory is. We want to take out that very
Speaker 1: volatile inventory cycle, and what we see is that real
Speaker 1: final sales were actually unchanged in this report. So essentially
Speaker 1: we shifted around some of the growth from category to category.
Speaker 1: But when we strip out that boltle inventory cycle, real
Speaker 1: final sales unchanged at one at the end of the year,
Speaker 1: So again reiterating the story that the US economy did
Speaker 1: lose momentum at the end of the year, but still
Speaker 1: very much on positive legs with Stephile Nicholas. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much, greatly appreciated. That's when it's Scarlett. I'm looking
Speaker 1: for the nominal GDP number here in the you know,
Speaker 1: the first table that comes out, still looking for it,
Speaker 1: but you know, at the end of the end of
Speaker 1: the day, the sub four percent nominal GDP gets your attention.
Speaker 1: The core PC number loss at the sense attention. That's
Speaker 1: the measure that they track most closely per inflation, and
Speaker 1: that increased one point a little bit faster than the
Speaker 1: shoe that was reported earlier. I think I got a
Speaker 1: run rate to current GDP, which is economic talk phenomenal
Speaker 1: of two point zero percent. That certainly doesn't get it done.
Speaker 1: Futures up thirteen. This hour of surveillance is brought to
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Speaker 1: Plaines dot Com. John Tucker has Our News and a
Speaker 1: scarlet and Tom Marco Rubio unleashing campaign's worth of harsh
Speaker 1: criticism on Donald Trump at the final Republican debate before
Speaker 1: Tuesday's crucial primaries. The problem maybe that it took ten
Speaker 1: debates and three Trump victories get Rubio fired up. United
Speaker 1: Nations Security Council this weekend considers tougher sanctions on North
Speaker 1: Korea and curtailing that regimes nuclear ambitions after the country
Speaker 1: we conducted a fourth nuclear task at rocket launch earlier
Speaker 1: this year. U S officials say the Pentagon has launched
Speaker 1: a newly aggressive campaign of cyber attacks against the Islamic
Speaker 1: State lootants. It's a targeted after you to eroad the
Speaker 1: group's abilities to use social media and the Internet. And yes,
Speaker 1: Oscar weekend, Tom New Regency Productions could score a rare
Speaker 1: three peek at the Academy Awards Sunday with a win
Speaker 1: for The Revenant The Frontier at Drama with Leo DiCaprio.
Speaker 1: The company, along with the distributed twentieth Century Fox, already
Speaker 1: holds the last two Best Picture oscars with Birdman and
Speaker 1: Twelve Years a Slave from I haven't seen any of them.
Speaker 1: Later in their hour here we got ninety minutes left
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg surveillance. We will speak with surveillance celebrity Loadstone,
Speaker 1: Scarlet Food about this, John Tucker, thank you so much, Scarlet.
Speaker 1: We have sports we do. It is time now for
Speaker 1: the Katina Auto Group Bloomberg NBC Sports update. All right, Scarlett.
Speaker 1: All three local hockey teams were on the road last night.
Speaker 1: Rangers won two one in St. Louis. They were coming
Speaker 1: off a lost in New Jersey. They still have not
Speaker 1: had back to back losses. Mid December, Henrik Lunquist made
Speaker 1: thirty five stents, became the third goalie in NHL history
Speaker 1: to win thirty or more games and at least ten seasons.
Speaker 1: After the Devil's lost badly at Columbus six to one,
Speaker 1: Nick Felino had the hat trick for the Blue Jackets
Speaker 1: in Calgary, the Islanders Thomas Hicky's fourth third period of
Speaker 1: tie the game, and then late in overtime Barras hold
Speaker 1: by all the Calgary line they chased by Fotahan I
Speaker 1: s turned off controlled Stars through the one in Calgary,
Speaker 1: their third straight win and that second stop on this
Speaker 1: club record nine game road trip at one sixteen one
Speaker 1: or six win at Phoenix has lost thirteen in a row.
Speaker 1: NETS made news earlier releasing Joe Johnson, who was his
Speaker 1: fourth seasons, made a lot of money twenty five million
Speaker 1: this year, hit several game winning shots, and Net's never
Speaker 1: one a playoff series with him and certainly won't this year.
Speaker 1: Johnson can have join another team. Many, seeing many teams
Speaker 1: are interested in college roops, went for Seton Hall could
Speaker 1: go a long way towards getting the Pirates too. The
Speaker 1: to the late seventy and fifty two of the Providence
Speaker 1: a week after beating to Paul in its first big
Speaker 1: East win. St. John's lost at the ball eight three
Speaker 1: seventy five with the Bloomberg NBC Sports Up. I'm John
Speaker 1: stick John. Thank you so much. Scarlett. We mentioned to arrangease,
Speaker 1: is he going to be the fun time of hockey?
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's getting to be the nerve wracking partner. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I actually had not realized that the Leaders had not
Speaker 1: lost back to back classes. It felt like they had
Speaker 1: for a while because your emotions go up and down
Speaker 1: so much. Remember that game that we went to against
Speaker 1: the Canadians, the one that began the awful streak. Yes,
Speaker 1: we said, our people made us sit in two different
Speaker 1: parts of medicine. Yeah, I would have caused too much
Speaker 1: of a commotion if we're together. If we'd been together,
Speaker 1: you know, lunchus would have been on. You would have
Speaker 1: been able to concentrate. Well. As it turns out, he
Speaker 1: wasn't able to concentrate because they lost. They lost really badly.
Speaker 1: It was an ugly game. Right now A good Market
Speaker 1: features up fourteen, down, features up one thirty, Scarlet Food
Speaker 1: and Tom Keen on a Friday Bloomberg Surveillance. The Sport's
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