Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
Speaker 2: are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 3: Karen, we begin with the latest from the Middle East.
Speaker 3: Two days after the US dropped bunker buster bombs on
Speaker 3: Iran's key underground nuclear sites, President Trump said a ceasefire
Speaker 3: is in effect between Israel and Iran. The President announced
Speaker 3: it in a truth social post. Last night. Israeli Prime
Speaker 3: Minister Benjamin Netanyaho confirmed that he's agreed to it and
Speaker 3: that he's achieved his war aims. But this morning there
Speaker 3: are questions whether this truce will hold. We get the
Speaker 3: very latest from Bloomberg Middle East anchored Jumana Bursechi.
Speaker 4: They've also said that Israel will respond forcefully to a
Speaker 4: breach of truth. And if you remember, it's quite similar
Speaker 4: to the wording of the truce agreement that Israel had
Speaker 4: in place with Hezbalah at the time when they agreed
Speaker 4: the ceasefire. It was a ceasfire and principle, but again
Speaker 4: Israel reserved the right to still strike back at certain
Speaker 4: Hesbala targets should they deem to have contravened the seas fart.
Speaker 3: It's Bloomberg's Jamanibersat you're reporting in this morning, Israel's military
Speaker 3: set it identified missiles fired from Iran. Defense Minister Israel
Speaker 3: Katz said he instructed his military to respond forcefully. Iran
Speaker 3: is denying that it has launched a new attack, Nathan.
Speaker 2: The ceasefire announcement comes after Iran launched missiles at a
Speaker 2: US airbase and Cutter and retaliation for the bunker Buster attack.
Speaker 2: T Iran launched fourteen missiles at the base, the same
Speaker 2: number as the bunker Busters dropped on its nuclear sites.
Speaker 2: All but one of the missiles were intercepted and no
Speaker 2: one was hurt. Bloomber's Paul Wallace has more from Dubai.
Speaker 5: I think Iran had to do something to save face,
Speaker 5: if nothing else, with its domestic population. And I think
Speaker 5: the Americans well knew that. It just depended what Iran
Speaker 5: would do and how spectacular and how aggressive that retaliation
Speaker 5: would be. In the end, it seemed like it was
Speaker 5: very choreographed, very calibrated, and there's even been speculation that
Speaker 5: Katar knew that this was coming and was actually okay
Speaker 5: with it.
Speaker 2: Bloomer's Paul Wallace reports President Trump spoke with Cutters and
Speaker 2: Mirror about the ceasfire and asked for his help persuading
Speaker 2: Around to agree to it. It's still unclear whether the
Speaker 2: truce will hold or if it'll lead to new discussions
Speaker 2: about Around's nuclear program and Karen.
Speaker 3: Markets are fluctuating with every headline coming out of the
Speaker 3: Middle East. Futures are higher, but off their best levels
Speaker 3: of the morning. That follows yesterday's one percent gain on
Speaker 3: Wall Street, and we're seeing oil prices continue to fall
Speaker 3: as well. Right now, nine X crews down more than
Speaker 3: three and a half percent, trading just above sixty six
Speaker 3: dollars a barrel. Brent is also down more than three
Speaker 3: and a half percent at of nearly sixty nine dollars.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Energy reporter Stephen Stepzinski says oil traders see less
Speaker 3: risk in the market.
Speaker 6: Oil prices are back below the June twelve level. You're
Speaker 6: seeing the market take a large sigh of leaf, and
Speaker 6: that is largely because while we've been through potentially the
Speaker 6: worst flare up in US Iranian conflict in decades, oil
Speaker 6: kept flowing and trade via the Strait of Hormus was
Speaker 6: not affected.
Speaker 3: In Bloomberg, Stevens Stebsinski notes the Middle East pumps about
Speaker 3: a third of the world's crude supply.
Speaker 2: Nathan the is Israel Around ceasefire comes as leaders gather
Speaker 2: for a NATO summit in the Hague. Ahead of the
Speaker 2: two day meeting, most of the NATO member states agreed
Speaker 2: on a proposed target to raise defense spending to five
Speaker 2: percent of GDP by twenty thirty five. NATO's Secretary General
Speaker 2: Mark Ruda says the ramp up and spending would be
Speaker 2: a quantum leap as.
Speaker 7: The world's becomes more dangerous at our leaders will take
Speaker 7: both desisions to strengthen our collective defense, making NATO a stronger,
Speaker 7: a fair, and a more lethal alliance member.
Speaker 2: It as a new target has not won approval of
Speaker 2: all of NATO, with Spain fighting for an opt out
Speaker 2: that could derail talks to making place in the Hague.
Speaker 3: Today, I'm back in Washington, Karen Fedchair J. Powell begins
Speaker 3: two days of testimony on the economy before Congress. Later
Speaker 3: this morning, he'll appear before the House Financial Services Committee.
Speaker 3: In a post on social media this morning, President Trump
Speaker 3: said he helps Congress quote really works Powell over for
Speaker 3: not lowering rates already. We get more from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Speaker 8: The Fed chair has been squarely in the President's sites
Speaker 8: ever since Donald Trump returned to the White House. Trump
Speaker 8: wants him to lower interest rates now, today and tomorrow.
Speaker 8: J Powell gets his chance to turn the tables. While
Speaker 8: Powell will be more circumspect and polite than the President,
Speaker 8: he'll explain the Central Bank doesn't want to lower rates
Speaker 8: until it knows the impact of Trump's tariff taxes and
Speaker 8: the budget bill on the economy. Expect Republicans to defend
Speaker 8: the President and Democrats to defend the Fed, and Chairman
Speaker 8: Powell to be as neutral as he can be. Michael McKee,
Speaker 8: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: All right, Mike, thanks and stay with Bloomberg for full
Speaker 3: coverage of Chair Powell's testimony before the House. Will have
Speaker 3: it for you starting at ten am Wall Street Time
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Radio and the Bloomberg Podcast page on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Return to Politics now on Nathan and on a sweltering
Speaker 2: day at New York City, Democrats will vote in today's
Speaker 2: mayoral primary election. Bloomberg's Lisa Matteo joins us in Manhattan
Speaker 2: with the latest. Lisa, good morning, Good morning, Karen, and
Speaker 2: Hopefully that heat will not affect the turnout now. Polls
Speaker 2: open at six am and voters have a long list
Speaker 2: of candidates choose from eleven or running for the official
Speaker 2: Democratic ticket, but survey showed the contest comes down to
Speaker 2: two men, former Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York State
Speaker 2: Assembly Member so In Ramandami. Now, last night, the former
Speaker 2: governor spoke at a rally for Cuomo for mayor.
Speaker 9: It's about the working families, It's about the struggling middle class.
Speaker 9: It's about people worried about the kitchen table issues, trying
Speaker 9: to figure out how to pay for groceries and pay
Speaker 9: for their rent, and pay for tuition and pay for taxes.
Speaker 9: That's what the Democratic Party is.
Speaker 3: All about now.
Speaker 10: Meanwhile, Mandam been advocating for rend freeze's and free childcare.
Speaker 11: New Yorkers are hungry for a new kind of politics,
Speaker 11: the politics that puts working people first. And we're seeing
Speaker 11: that it's not just in one borough, it's not just
Speaker 11: with one kind of New Yorker, it's across this entire city.
Speaker 10: Polls have largely shown Cuomo winning, but a new Emerson
Speaker 10: College poll showed Mandanmi coming out on top in the
Speaker 10: city's rank choice voting comptroller Brad Landler. Lander is polling
Speaker 10: third in some surveys and has formed an alliance with Mamdanie.
Speaker 10: He had focused on his experience as a manager and
Speaker 10: his opposition to President Trump. City Council Speaker Adrian Adams
Speaker 10: also vying for the nomination, running on her experience in government.
Speaker 10: Other candidates while they include former Democratic National Committee Vice
Speaker 10: chair Michael Blake, New York State Senator Zelnor Myrie, New
Speaker 10: York State Senator Jessica Ramos, former New York City Controller
Speaker 10: Scott Stringer, and retired hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson. Michael Bloomberg,
Speaker 10: the founder majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company
Speaker 10: of Bloomberg Radio, has endorsed Andrew Cuomo Manhattan, Lis Matteo
Speaker 10: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: Nor Lisa thank You and This year's Democratic nominee will
Speaker 3: face incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who is elected, of course
Speaker 3: as a Democrat, but he skipped today's primary to run
Speaker 3: as an independent in November. On the Republican side of
Speaker 3: today's ballot, Curtis Sliwa, founder of the anti crime patrol
Speaker 3: group The Guardian Angels, is running unopposed, he will once
Speaker 3: again be the Republican nominee.
Speaker 2: Well, Nathan, How does ranked choice voting work? Bloomberg Gina
Speaker 2: Survetti continues our coverage of the New York City mayoral race.
Speaker 2: In Manhattan.
Speaker 12: Voters choose their favorite candidate, but also can select a
Speaker 12: second favorite, a third, and so on up to five.
Speaker 12: If a candidate gets a majority of first place votes,
Speaker 12: that person wins. If not, the candidate with the fewest
Speaker 12: first place votes is eliminated. Voting machines then examine the
Speaker 12: number two choices on every ballot cast for the eliminated
Speaker 12: person and distribute those votes among the remaining field. The
Speaker 12: process continues until a candidate garner's a majority. For the
Speaker 12: New York mayoral primary, if no candidate wins more than
Speaker 12: fifty percent of the votes on the first ballot, election
Speaker 12: officials planned to wait a week before initiating the ranked
Speaker 12: choice tabulation process in order to include mailed in absentee
Speaker 12: ballots in New York. Gena.
Speaker 3: Cervetti, Bloomberg Radio, Gina, thank you. Turning back to Washington,
Speaker 3: the Supreme Court is allowing President Trump to resume his
Speaker 3: program of swiftly deporting migrants to countries other than their homelands.
Speaker 3: For now. Bloomberg Zamy Morris has more from the nation's capital.
Speaker 13: The Supreme Court lifted a judge's order requiring the Trump
Speaker 13: administration to give people ten days notice and a chance
Speaker 13: to object before deporting them to a third country. The
Speaker 13: order marks a shift for the High Court. The justices
Speaker 13: previously pushed back against the administration's efforts to send some
Speaker 13: immigrants to harsh or potentially dangerous locations with minimal notice.
Speaker 13: The decision drew a scathing descent from Justice Sonya Sotomayor,
Speaker 13: who said the High Court's action was a gross abuse
Speaker 13: of its authority. In Washington, Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: Amy, thank you. Another legal blow for the President Trump
Speaker 2: and his battle with Harvard University. For the second time
Speaker 2: in a week, a federal judge in Boston is issued
Speaker 2: a court order letting the Ivy League keep hosting foreign students.
Speaker 2: The President had tried to bar the students, setting a
Speaker 2: law to safeguard national security. Time off for a look
Speaker 2: at some of the other stories making news in New
Speaker 2: York and around the world, And for that we're joined
Speaker 2: by Bloomberg's Michael Barr, Michael Good morning.
Speaker 14: Good morning, Karen. Oppressive heat and humanity are slamming nearly
Speaker 14: half the country, and today is going to be another
Speaker 14: hot day for many. Bloomberg meniorrologist Rob Carolyn has the latest, Michael.
Speaker 15: High pressure remains situated over the Carolinas, so the hot
Speaker 15: weather continues. We have extreme heat warnings stretching from the
Speaker 15: Carolinas through the district in Baltimore on through Philadelphia, New York,
Speaker 15: and up into southern New England. Many of these cities
Speaker 15: are going to see afternoon high temperatures at or above
Speaker 15: one hundred degrees with the heat index over one hundred
Speaker 15: and five, and that's why those extreme heat warnings are
Speaker 15: in effect. Further to the west, we're looking at lots
Speaker 15: of heat advisories. How he is going to continue to
Speaker 15: shift down into the Atlantics. Of the hot weather in
Speaker 15: many locations continues into Wednesday, if not Thursday.
Speaker 3: Michael.
Speaker 14: Thanks Rob. A jury has now watched nearly forty five
Speaker 14: minutes of recordings of marathon sex events, considered important evidence
Speaker 14: in the sex trafficking and racketeering trial of music mogul
Speaker 14: Sean Diddy Combs. The prosecution says the jury viewed explicit
Speaker 14: footage of two of Combe's former girlfriends sexually involved with
Speaker 14: male sex workers while he filmed the encounters. Combs has
Speaker 14: pleaded not guilty to the charges. Prosecutors planned to rest
Speaker 14: today after a defense presentation. Closing arguments are scheduled for Thursday.
Speaker 14: Attorney General Pam Bondi's hearing before the House Appropriations Committee
Speaker 14: quickly devolved into shouting matches with Democratic lawmakers. Democratic Representative
Speaker 14: Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania pressed Bondi about reports that she
Speaker 14: advised and signed off on President Trump's acceptance of a
Speaker 14: luxury jet from Cutter.
Speaker 12: True that you gave advice that this was legally permissible?
Speaker 13: Yes or no. I will not discuss any advice that
Speaker 13: my Office of Legal Counsel gives to the President of
Speaker 13: the United States on any matter.
Speaker 14: Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are considering a forty thousand dollars cap
Speaker 14: on state and local tax deductions, but want to lower
Speaker 14: the income threshold. It's a bid to resolve a standoff
Speaker 14: with House Republicans. Senator Mark Wayne Mullen of Oklahoma, a
Speaker 14: key negotiator, said he plans to make the offer to
Speaker 14: House Republicans from New York, New Jersey and California. Other
Speaker 14: issues still need to be resolved, including Medicaid cuts to
Speaker 14: rural hospitals. Global news twenty four hours a day and
Speaker 14: whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now, I'm
Speaker 14: Michael Barn. This is Bloomberg Heron.
Speaker 2: All right, Michael Barr, thank you. It is time now
Speaker 2: for the Bloomberg Sports Update, and here's John stash Hour.
Speaker 3: John, Good morning, morning Karen.
Speaker 16: It was just ten days ago the Mets were flying
Speaker 16: in high They had won fifteen of eighteen. They were
Speaker 16: twenty seven and seven at home. They had the best
Speaker 16: record in baseball, a five and a half game lead
Speaker 16: in the NL. Since then, ten games, nine losses. They
Speaker 16: scored only nineteen runs in those nine defeats, so I
Speaker 16: won four. Versus Atlanta, the Braids won three to two
Speaker 16: at City Field and now second place Mets got a
Speaker 16: two run homer from Juan Soto, but nothing else. For
Speaker 16: manager Carlos Mendoza.
Speaker 17: Once the bottom of the lineup, we're having a hard
Speaker 17: time creating opportunities. You normally we religned pretty much on
Speaker 17: the top four five guys, and then if those guys
Speaker 17: in the bottom are not able to get on base,
Speaker 17: that's why we're having a hard time scoring runs right now.
Speaker 16: Mendoza Tonight will start Frankie Montas it'll be his Mets debut.
Speaker 16: Yankees in Cincinnati had a first anting home run from
Speaker 16: Aaron Judges twenty eight. Nothing after that. Yanks loss of
Speaker 16: the red six to one, Red Sox loss of the
Speaker 16: Angels nine to five. Nationals won ten six in San
Speaker 16: Diego and Seattle's win at Minnesota. Home run number thirty
Speaker 16: two for the Mariners switch hitting catcher Cal Rawley.
Speaker 3: He's hit five in his last four games.
Speaker 16: The NBA Draft against tomorrow, the Celtics, that have moved
Speaker 16: to save money, traded Drew Holiday to Portland for Anthony
Speaker 16: Simon's in two second round picks.
Speaker 3: This saves the Celtics forty million. In the Luxury Tacks.
Speaker 16: Tyrese Halliburton had surgery on the torn achilles he suffered
Speaker 16: in Games seven of the Finals. He had a calf
Speaker 16: injury going in said he has no regrets trying to play.
Speaker 16: The Pacers and Celtics are gonna play most, if not all,
Speaker 16: of next season without their star players. Both Halliburton and
Speaker 16: Jason Tatum tore their achilles in the playoffs. That should
Speaker 16: help the Knicks in the East.
Speaker 3: Nick still without a coach.
Speaker 16: Latest name linked to the Knicks job James Barrego, former
Speaker 16: coach in Charlotte, John Stanshatward Bloomberg Sports.
Speaker 13: Karen Nathan.
Speaker 1: Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Serious Exam
Speaker 1: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. A ceasefire announcement between Israel
Speaker 3: and Iran may already be in doubt hours after President
Speaker 3: Donald Trump posted about it on social media. Israel is
Speaker 3: accusing Iran of breaching the truce, joining us from Tel
Speaker 3: Aviv Bloomberg News Israel Bureau Chief Ethan Bronner Ethan, good morning.
Speaker 3: We've seen a flurry of headlines since the President posted
Speaker 3: that cease fire announcement last night on truth Social what's
Speaker 3: the latest? You can tell.
Speaker 18: Us well, as you said, Nathan, So right after the
Speaker 18: President issue this announcement, there was I think there were
Speaker 18: six volleys of missiles at Israel repeatedly. One after there
Speaker 18: was forty minutes or so we were running in and
Speaker 18: out of bomb shelters. But then the Israelis announced that
Speaker 18: they had accepted it as well, and it seemed it
Speaker 18: was happening. And then just a little while ago, two
Speaker 18: more missiles went to the north. The Iranians apparently say
Speaker 18: they didn't send them, but the Israelis are quite clear
Speaker 18: that who did send them, and they've already seen a
Speaker 18: fragment of it landed in northern Israel. So there clearly
Speaker 18: was some kind of a vile and the Israelis have
Speaker 18: threatened said they're going to carry out a very severe
Speaker 18: attack in Tehran in retaliation. So you're right that it's
Speaker 18: a pretty fragile. My instinct is that it will evolve
Speaker 18: in the next hours, that we will see some kind
Speaker 18: of a truce, because everyone seems to want it, but
Speaker 18: you never know.
Speaker 3: What do we know about the terms of the truth
Speaker 3: that were announced by President Trump last night. How is
Speaker 3: it going to work?
Speaker 18: We don't really know. I'm assuming that there will be
Speaker 18: a kind of formal, you know, quiet for quiet announcement
Speaker 18: between Israel and Iran, and then there'll be a sort
Speaker 18: of unspoken agreement between the United States and Israel, as
Speaker 18: there is with regard to Levin and Hazbollah, in which
Speaker 18: Israel says, if we see clear violations, we are going
Speaker 18: to take you to a lateral action, and the Americans
Speaker 18: are going to say fine. By now, Iran is a
Speaker 18: lot farther away than Lebanon and a lot harder to
Speaker 18: suddenly take action. But that's my instinct about where we're headed.
Speaker 3: Okay. Now, ahead of this apparent break of the seafire,
Speaker 3: Israel had said that it achieved its war aims in
Speaker 3: agreeing to this. Does that mean from the Israeli perspective
Speaker 3: that it no longer sees Iran as a nuclear thread.
Speaker 19: I think it more or less means that, or at
Speaker 19: least that it's its nuclear program is set back sufficiently
Speaker 19: two years or something that it's going to be very
Speaker 19: hard if you have all of these broken centrifuges and
Speaker 19: all of these enrichment sites that are impossible to get
Speaker 19: into or to send.
Speaker 18: Power to it for a while. I think there's the
Speaker 18: sense that we need to still see all of that
Speaker 18: with greater clarity. The yes as a nuclear threshold state
Speaker 18: Iran has been pushed aside for now, and the Israeli
Speaker 18: is also saying that they took care of eighty percent
Speaker 18: of the launchers of ballistic missiles, and so that's the
Speaker 18: less of a threat as well. Obviously it is in
Speaker 18: total victory, but enough for them to declare it as such.
Speaker 3: And of course it came after Iran lobbed the same
Speaker 3: number of missiles as the amount of bunker buster bombs
Speaker 3: that the US dropped on its nuclear sites over the weekend.
Speaker 3: What can we expect when it comes to further US
Speaker 3: involvement here, Well, I mean the.
Speaker 18: Numbers may have been the same, but it was a
Speaker 18: little bit like a kabuki theater. I mean, they dropped
Speaker 18: fourteen missile some kind of projectiles on an American base,
Speaker 18: but they told the Americans and the Kataris where the
Speaker 18: base is in advance. They were all stopped. President Trump
Speaker 18: was kind of narrating it on his truth social as
Speaker 18: it was happening, So it was kind of an active theater.
Speaker 18: I don't think the Americans are planning any kind of retaliation,
Speaker 18: and everyone's hoping that would be it from that perspective.
Speaker 3: So does that mean that we could see resumption of
Speaker 3: discussions around Iran's nuclear program? As you mentioned, there are
Speaker 3: still a lot of questions about the status of the
Speaker 3: program following all these attacks.
Speaker 18: Yes, I assume there will be an attempt to get
Speaker 18: these talks going again. But I think that the American
Speaker 18: and the Rushalian perspective is that what has been destroyed
Speaker 18: is so significant that there isn't an urgency to the
Speaker 18: talks the way there once was.
Speaker 3: So to that extent, where does this last twelve days
Speaker 3: since the Israeli attack on Iran that began all this,
Speaker 3: where does this leave the Iranian regime Ethan? I mean,
Speaker 3: we've seen President Trump muse kind of openly about the
Speaker 3: possibility of regime change by the Iranian people. Could it
Speaker 3: go there?
Speaker 18: Look, I think nobody really you know, predicting revolutions and
Speaker 18: who's is a fool's errand But obviously this government in
Speaker 18: arab this regime is as weak as it has ever been,
Speaker 18: as threatened as it has ever been. It is held on,
Speaker 18: you know, it's got all the leavers of power still
Speaker 18: in its hands. So I don't know what's going to
Speaker 18: happen to it, but there's no question that you know,
Speaker 18: it's friends Russia. China did not come to its aid militarily.
Speaker 18: Its proxies in Lebanon and in Syria and Iraq have
Speaker 18: been almost entirely not eliminated, but certainly diminish. And so
Speaker 18: it is a shadow of its former self as a
Speaker 18: regional power today, and that is what Israel wanted.
Speaker 3: Thank you for this, Ethan. Great to have you with
Speaker 3: us this morning. That is Ethan Bronner joining us from
Speaker 3: Tel Aviv, Israel Bureau chief for Bloomberg News, Karen Nathan.
Speaker 2: Let's repeat some of our top stories this morning. President
Speaker 2: Trump says he hopes Congress really works fed share J.
Speaker 2: Powell as he gets ready for two days of testimony today.
Speaker 2: The President says interest rates should be two to three
Speaker 2: points lower. Another legal blow for President Trump and his
Speaker 2: battle with Harvard. For the second time in a week,
Speaker 2: a federal judge in Boston is issued a court order
Speaker 2: letting the Ivy League keep hosting foreign students and its
Speaker 2: primary day in New York City, voters will contend with
Speaker 2: extreme heat and a ranked choice ballot in the Democratic
Speaker 2: race for mayor. We have more in those stories coming
Speaker 2: up on Bloomberg Daybreak, Nathan.
Speaker 3: All right, Kather, and thank you for that. It is
Speaker 3: a five point twenty two on Wall Street. Want to
Speaker 3: turn now to another one of our top stories. What's
Speaker 3: happening in the Hague. Later today, leaders from the NATO
Speaker 3: Alliance gathering for their annual two day summit, looking to
Speaker 3: lock in big defense spending increases as President Trump prepares
Speaker 3: to make his way to the event. Joining us from
Speaker 3: the Hague this morning is Bloomberg's Oliver Crook. Great to
Speaker 3: speak with you this morning, Oliver, after we heard from
Speaker 3: the Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutta talking about a
Speaker 3: five percent of GDP defense spending goal that would be
Speaker 3: a huge increase from current levels. Does that look like
Speaker 3: it's going to hold? Good morning, Nathan.
Speaker 20: Yeah, it does look like it's going to hold at
Speaker 20: this stage. I mean, there's a little bit of infighting
Speaker 20: which we can get into, but you know, I think
Speaker 20: that what we've learned about the Trump administration and Donald
Speaker 20: Trump itself is he likes one big, beautiful number, and
Speaker 20: that big beautiful number that NATO wants to present to
Speaker 20: him in order to guarantee continued US support of the
Speaker 20: alliance is five percent five percent of GDP spend on
Speaker 20: an annual basis of every single country within the NATO Alliance.
Speaker 20: As you say, Nathan, the previous requirements were two percent.
Speaker 20: Most countries were not hitting that for a very long
Speaker 20: time you take the average of the last decade, in
Speaker 20: removing the United States, it's closer to one point six percent.
Speaker 20: And now you're in a position where you have these
Speaker 20: nations lining up to basically guarantee to spend about five
Speaker 20: percent of their GDP on defense. Now we should say
Speaker 20: this is not strictly speaking a real five percent. Only
Speaker 20: three point five percent of that is going to be
Speaker 20: on the sort of hard military hardware, the kind of
Speaker 20: traditional military spending we think about guns, ammunition, tanks, aircraft
Speaker 20: and those sorts of things. One point five of that
Speaker 20: is going to be sort of defense adjacent. So let's
Speaker 20: say there is theoretically a war on the eastern flank
Speaker 20: of NATO. You need roads and railways that can carry
Speaker 20: tanks around. You need cybersecurity defense, so those sorts of
Speaker 20: things could also be included. But we should say, Nathan,
Speaker 20: that this, despite the fact that it's maybe not a
Speaker 20: clear and pure five percent, this is a massive uptick
Speaker 20: in terms of European defense spending. And this is something
Speaker 20: that frankly six months ago was completely inconceivable and it's
Speaker 20: becoming a reality over the next couple of days.
Speaker 3: We had heard in the lead up to this Oliver
Speaker 3: that Spain was holding out on committing to that five
Speaker 3: percent target. How serious is Spain's sort of reluctance to
Speaker 3: go forward with this.
Speaker 20: Yeah, they've been really sort of a holdout, and this
Speaker 20: has been a big topic of conversation over the last
Speaker 20: couple of days. I've spoken to a number of defense
Speaker 20: at foreign ministers over the last couple of day, they
Speaker 20: from different European nations. They seem to think that Spain
Speaker 20: is going to get on board. Basically how it works
Speaker 20: as NATO assigns a certain amount of hardware and things
Speaker 20: that each of its members need to basically participate in.
Speaker 20: The point is that Spain says that they can basically
Speaker 20: meet those requirements without spending the three point five percent,
Speaker 20: but can do it with two point one percent. But
Speaker 20: we even heard from Mark Rote yesterday saying that he
Speaker 20: really doesn't think that that's possible and there can't really
Speaker 20: be two speeds and two different requirements for different members
Speaker 20: of NATO. And the second that sort of Spain is
Speaker 20: unwilling to do it. Then you heard started hearing sounds
Speaker 20: from Slovakia. So really what they need to do is
Speaker 20: to present a united front. It's hard to imagine that
Speaker 20: they sort of blow up this whole arrangement just because
Speaker 20: Spain doesn't get on board. So I have to watch
Speaker 20: what we get over the next twenty four hours.
Speaker 3: And as we wait for a President Trump to make
Speaker 3: his way over there following the announcement of the cease fire,
Speaker 3: with the shakiness surrounding that, Now, where does this position
Speaker 3: President Trump as he heads to NATO.
Speaker 20: Yeah, so it's a really interesting question. It's something that
Speaker 20: I've been sort of wondering about. You know, if he's
Speaker 20: got basically a big win under his belt, saying that
Speaker 20: he's a destroyed all of Iran's nuclear facilities or to
Speaker 20: a very large extent, b has managed to sort of
Speaker 20: negotiate a ceasefire. He comes to the sort of NATO
Speaker 20: meeting potentially in high spirits, but also in a position
Speaker 20: to basically make a lot of demands and to feel
Speaker 20: very sort of good about pushing around the rest of
Speaker 20: the world because, as we know, the Europeans have basically
Speaker 20: had zero influence on the situation in the Middleies, whether
Speaker 20: it's Gaza, whether it's Iran, all of these sorts of things.
Speaker 20: And he comes here to NATO and really does feel
Speaker 20: a little bit like the sort of you know, the
Speaker 20: King of NATO. This is all down to the fact
Speaker 20: that basically the Trump administration, Donald Trump has threatened basically
Speaker 20: not to come to the aid of certain NATO members
Speaker 20: if they do not reach their targets, and that is
Speaker 20: what has got everybody in line. But likely if he
Speaker 20: still comes to the summit, and that is our base
Speaker 20: case assumption, that he will be becoming a in high
Speaker 20: spirits and be in a very sort of powerful position,
Speaker 20: even more powerful potentially than previously.
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Speaker 12: Ray