1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarckley and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: Connecting the dots here on Balance of Power every day, 7 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: and this Wednesday edition included thanks for joining us on 8 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio. 9 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 3: Streaming live on YouTube. 10 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 2: Search Bloomberg Business News Live unless you're already dialed into 11 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Originals. Get a grip, says the President of the 12 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 2: United States. Our headline today is US allies, He says, 13 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 2: need to get a grip, step up and help open 14 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 2: the strait of horror moves. This is just one of 15 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 2: several posts on truth social that we have seen from 16 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: the President of the United States this morning. Only to 17 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 2: face a redhead just as we come to air here 18 00:00:57,760 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 2: at high noon. 19 00:00:58,480 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 3: It happens like that a lot. 20 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: Enter the Vice President who's in Michigan today talking about affordability. 21 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 2: What will he say to oil executives when they meet? Yeah, 22 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 2: that's the news. Jd Vance to meet American Petroleum Institute 23 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 2: board members on Thursday, is gonna huddle with the API. 24 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 2: We look forward to convening key officials, says the Vice 25 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 2: President Energy Secretary. Right, Bipartisan leaders in Congress and governors 26 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 2: are going to have a big confab on the role 27 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 2: of American oil and natural gas and supporting reliable energy. 28 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 3: Amid global volatility. Yeah, you've heard what Charlie said. 29 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 2: Take a look WTI ninety eight or above ninety eight 30 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, remembering we almost kissed one hundred and 31 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:46,119 Speaker 2: twenty dollars at the outset of this whole experience. Brent 32 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 2: crude has been in triple digit territory for some time. 33 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 2: It's above one hundred and eight dollars, up five percent. 34 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 2: Wti's up two percent. I mentioned JD Vance in Michigan. 35 00:01:57,360 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 2: He's actually talking right now. This is part of the 36 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 2: affordability to a There he is, if you can with 37 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 2: us on YouTube's at the podium and he's I guess 38 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 2: going to have to get around to oil and gas prices, 39 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 2: which in Michigan are up significantly since the start of 40 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 2: this operation, as is the case around the country. 41 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 3: I say operation. 42 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 2: Presidents still calling it excursion, and we have a lot 43 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 2: of news here. By the way, I'll get to what's 44 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 2: going on Capitol Hill in a little bit. Half the 45 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 2: Cabinet seems to be sitting in testimony today. But we've 46 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 2: had some pretty big developments in this excursion. The Pentagon 47 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 2: says US forces used five thousand pounds deep penetrator munitions 48 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 2: on Iranian missile sites along the Strait that quote posed 49 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 2: a risk to international shipping unquote. That clearly didn't make 50 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 2: anybody feel any better. We also have news, and this 51 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 2: is more the concern for the oil patch. Iran warned 52 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 2: Gulf countries after Israel attacked its South Pars gas field 53 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 2: that energy the assets are now on the table. We 54 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 2: can come blow yours up too, and that's why we're 55 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 2: seeing this reaction here in the energy market, in the 56 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 2: oil market. Listen to the way the President termed this 57 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 2: last evening as he was presented with the Shamrock bowl. 58 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 2: Remember it was t shot day yesterday. It's like a 59 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 2: distant moment in the past. Now the President talking about 60 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 2: Iran at the White House. 61 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 4: Listen, we did a little excursion and as we're way 62 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 4: ahead of schedule, as you probably noticed, and we've had 63 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 4: there's no we knocked out their navy, their air force, 64 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 4: their anti aircraft equipment, their radar. 65 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 3: And their leaders. 66 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 4: It's it's been amazing militarily, but it's something that had 67 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 4: to be done. 68 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 2: Yet the strait is still closed, even as the President 69 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 2: has repeatedly suggested that we've already won another post on 70 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 2: truth social and this one's got us wondering. Well, the 71 00:03:54,960 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 2: president's wondering himself, he says. Tyler, I'm sure this. We'll 72 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 2: read it together here. Tyler, I wonder what would happen 73 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 2: if we finished off what's left of the Iranian terror 74 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 2: state and let the countries that use it. We don't 75 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: be responsible for the so called straight so called that 76 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:21,119 Speaker 2: would get some of our non responsive allies in gear 77 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 2: and fast three exclamation points. Our Washington correspondent is on 78 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 2: the North lawn listening to me run through all of 79 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 2: this right now, and she's back with us. Tyler Kendall, boy, 80 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 2: I'm not actually sure where to begin today. Maybe we 81 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 2: should note the fact that the President is leaving the 82 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 2: bubble here to go witness the dignified transfer at Dover. 83 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 3: What can you tell us. 84 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:47,159 Speaker 5: Well, Joe, if we start with that, we're expecting President 85 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:49,840 Speaker 5: Trump to take off on Marine one shortly you might 86 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 5: be able to actually hear the helicopter worrings around us. 87 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 5: He's scheduled one twenty five pm Easter and that's when 88 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 5: that dignified transfer is going to happen at Dover as 89 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,679 Speaker 5: we await those six service members who have been killed 90 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,799 Speaker 5: in Iran. As you all know, this happened last Thursday 91 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 5: where we saw that refueling aircraft crash in a rock. 92 00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 5: It included three US Air Force personnel and three National 93 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 5: Guard members. So that's going to take up the bulk 94 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 5: of the President's schedule today, and as he leaves here, 95 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 5: this is likely the only time that we're going to 96 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:27,480 Speaker 5: see him publicly besides for welcoming those service members back home. 97 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 5: We heard from the White House Press Secretary, Caroline love 98 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 5: But earlier today saying that this is going to be 99 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 5: the focus of the President's attention. But of course, as 100 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 5: you mentioned, we have also been getting some messages from 101 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:42,279 Speaker 5: him out on truth Social reiterating the idea that the 102 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 5: Strait of Remus is really the sole focal point at 103 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 5: the moment when it comes to these ongoing operations in Iran. 104 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 3: Yeah. Interesting. 105 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 2: The President obviously is not happy with our NATO allies specifically, 106 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:59,160 Speaker 2: although he's isolated and pointed out Japan, South Korea and 107 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 2: others Tyler for not taking part in a coalition international 108 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 2: coalition to help open the Strait of Horror moves. Remember 109 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 2: back in the Bush days, it was the coalition of 110 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 2: the willing. Well, there aren't many willing, if any willing 111 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 2: parties right now, Tyler. But the President has also indicated 112 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 2: that we do not need them. What's the latest on this? 113 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:21,040 Speaker 2: He suggested that he wants an answer by Friday. 114 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 5: Right, so this came in a post from the President 115 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 5: earlier today. He seems to be going back and forth 116 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 5: between retreating off of his demand for allies to help 117 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 5: secure the Strait of her moves, but also saying that 118 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 5: ultimately we don't need them. Yesterday, he was asked directly 119 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:40,039 Speaker 5: which countries the US was in talks with in terms 120 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 5: of forming a coalition, after he had signaled earlier this 121 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 5: week than one could be announced by Secretary of State 122 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 5: Marco Rubio, and I think it's fair to say that 123 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 5: he sidestepped the question and said touted bilateral relations between 124 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 5: the US and Middle East countries, and as we've discussed 125 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:59,599 Speaker 5: about before, This is really highlighting what at this point 126 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 5: has been long strained tensions between the Trump administration and 127 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 5: traditional allies when it comes to defense spending. There also 128 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 5: appears to be this concern among our allies that if 129 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 5: they don't act in the conflict with Iran, then we 130 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 5: could see this White House disengage when it comes to 131 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 5: the conflict in Ukraine. And I bring that up only 132 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 5: because yesterday President Trump brought it up a lot, actually 133 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 5: pretty unprompted, saying at one point, quote, We've helped them 134 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 5: in Ukraine, but they will not help us in Iran. 135 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 5: So that's just another thread that we should be watching 136 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 5: really closely here. But we've heard from a flurry of 137 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 5: leaders and to allies in the NATO Alliance who have 138 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 5: been weary at best of meeting the president's demand for 139 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 5: naval escorts. It appears that that threshold to actually get 140 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 5: involved and send assets is going to be a ceasefire, actually, 141 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 5: Joe for then maybe we'll see a coalition put into 142 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 5: place to then ensure that that ceasefire would hold if 143 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 5: we get to that point. But it's not just NATO allies, 144 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 5: as you mentioned to others. I would say tomorrow's meeting 145 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 5: with the Japanese Prime Minister are expected here at the 146 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 5: White House. 147 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 3: Comes at quite the time. 148 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 5: This meeting, of course, was announced well before the conflict started. 149 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 5: And then also on China, if I could just quickly 150 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 5: add I did catch up with the US Trade representative 151 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 5: Jamison Greer earlier today. Nearly thirty eight percent of the 152 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 5: oil that flows through the Strait of Removes goes to Beijing. 153 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 5: He told me that at trade talks earlier this week, 154 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 5: US negotiators made it very clear to China that it 155 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 5: would be in Beijing's best interest if they get the 156 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 5: Strait of Removes opened as quickly as possible. 157 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 2: Tyler reminding us she doesn't just talk to me while 158 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 2: she's on the lawn. She's actually talking with members of 159 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 2: the administration. And that's a full story you can read 160 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 2: on this terminal and online with Tyler's byline alongside Scolar Woodhouse. 161 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:46,199 Speaker 2: This is an important moment, as Jamison Greer points to China, 162 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 2: and you do wonder, Tyler, if that's going to be 163 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 2: the message from this White House on a go forward 164 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 2: here in the coming weeks. They Hey, you guys use 165 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 2: the straight not us, so maybe you'll keep it open 166 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 2: and the President seems to be indicating that on truth 167 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 2: social We'll see if they're is some break in this 168 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,959 Speaker 2: standoff at some point soon. Tyler, thank you great reporting. 169 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,199 Speaker 2: As always, Tyler Kendall live from the White House. Stay 170 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 2: with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more 171 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 2: coming up after this. 172 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketchas 173 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 174 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,680 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 175 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flag 176 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 1: Tip New York station Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 177 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 6: Watching the markets for US as they wait with baited 178 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 6: breath Ford. Maybe not the Federal Reserve decision, but certainly 179 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 6: the news conference that follows, and how Chairman Powell is 180 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 6: going to speak around the potential inflationary shock that could 181 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 6: be emanating from the Middle East as the war with 182 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 6: Iran is now in day nineteen, the Straight of Hormuz 183 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 6: still effectively closed, and therefore global energy markets at least 184 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 6: about a fifth of that global energy trade is that 185 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 6: somewhat of a standstill. Of course, much of what happens 186 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 6: next will depend on how long this war continues. What 187 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 6: the time horizon is. I'm sure we'll hear something similar 188 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 6: from Chairman Powell this afternoon. And on that time horizon. 189 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 6: President Trump has repeatedly suggested it could be a matter 190 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 6: of weeks, but the US is ahead of schedule. He 191 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 6: again said, so, just yesterday. 192 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,239 Speaker 3: We did a little excursion. 193 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 4: And as we're way ahead of schedule, as you probably noticed, 194 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 4: and we've had there's no We knocked out their navy, 195 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 4: their air force, their anti aircraft equipment, their radar, and 196 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 4: their leaders. It's been it's been amazing militarily, but it's 197 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:39,080 Speaker 4: something that had to be done. 198 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 2: President speaking at the White House yesterday, he now wheels 199 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 2: up to Dover, as we have been mentioning, the President 200 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,560 Speaker 2: of the United States on his way to Dover to 201 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 2: witness the dignified transfer of six Americans who lost their 202 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 2: lives in a tanker crash at Case one thirty five 203 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 2: Air to air Refueller that went down over West Or 204 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 2: in Iraq last week. We bring in the voice of 205 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 2: Congresswoman Haley Stevens, the Democrat from Michigan, is with us here, 206 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 2: Michigan's eleventh in a candidate for US Senate Congresswoman, it's 207 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 2: great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 208 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 2: Just for starters, because we haven't had a chance to 209 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 2: compare notes with you in some time. This excursion, as 210 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 2: the President describes it, is something you support. 211 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 7: No, it's a war that he started on his own. 212 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 7: Michiganders don't want this. They're paying for it. We have 213 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 7: two hundred injured. It's hit us at the gas pump, 214 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 7: it's hitness in our pocket books, and it's something that 215 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 7: the President began without the consultation of the American people 216 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 7: and certainly of Congress. So I voted for war powers, 217 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,320 Speaker 7: and I continue to stand with the Michiganders who want 218 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 7: something much better than what they're getting from this administration. 219 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 6: Right now, well, of course, the administration, well it didn't 220 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 6: ask for authorization for these combat operations. Congressman may still 221 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 6: yet come to you and your colleagues with a supplemental 222 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 6: funding request in order to keep paying for these operations. Now, 223 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:11,679 Speaker 6: I'm not sure whether, given what you just said, you 224 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,479 Speaker 6: would be supportive of a supplemental But if the alternative 225 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 6: Republicans could pursue is budget reconciliation, a package that could 226 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 6: theoretically include far more than just funding for the war 227 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:26,479 Speaker 6: with Iran? Is that potentially a worst case scenario. 228 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 7: Well, I'll tell you who they're going to come to 229 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 7: for funding. They're going to come to Michiganders, who you know, 230 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 7: a billion dollars a day that is costing us. They're 231 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 7: cutting food assistance, healthcare, education programs. We've dealt with reckless 232 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 7: and chaotic tariffs that have threatened our manufacturing sector. Our 233 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 7: economy has been rocked as a result of this. And 234 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 7: now those gas prices that are coming down on Michiganders 235 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 7: who are trying to get to their job, to pick 236 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 7: up their kids from school, go to the store and 237 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 7: get what they need to get. It's just another strangulation. 238 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 7: It's not acceptable. It's not working for us. This is 239 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 7: an overreach. There's no plan, there's no strategy, and I'm not. 240 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:17,199 Speaker 8: Going to go along with it. 241 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 2: Congress Woman, not mincing words today, is the average price 242 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,559 Speaker 2: for gasoline hits three eighty six. It's almost three eighty 243 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 2: seven in the state of Michigan specifically, which by the way, 244 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 2: is slightly above the national average. Congresswoman, you sit on 245 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 2: the China Select Committee, which steers our conversations pretty frequently 246 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 2: when we talk here on Bloomberg, it's been suggested that China, 247 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 2: if not Russia, but China is the biggest. 248 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 3: Winner from this action, right now, do you agree? 249 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 7: Well, we certainly see our allies going to our adversaries 250 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 7: for energy. You know, we've got this challenge with the 251 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 7: straight of horror moves, as you've just mentioned, our own 252 00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 7: energy considerations now being challenged. And I want the world 253 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 7: to see what we do in Michigan. That's where I'm 254 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 7: always going to stand. We've got, you know, the Vice 255 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 7: President bopping around my district today going to a manufacturing shop. 256 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 7: I've spent years, you know, being with these manufacturers, advocating 257 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 7: for them at the lawmaking table. And we've got to 258 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 7: win the race against China from the place that I 259 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 7: call home. But that race is not going to be 260 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 7: one if we're pushing our allies into the arms of 261 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 7: you know, the adversaries here, particularly on the energy costs 262 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 7: and on trade. And so I've got a lot of concerns. 263 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 8: I also have got plans. 264 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 7: I've got bills that I've helped pass and bills to 265 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 7: come un lessening our dependents on China for our supply chain, 266 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 7: lowering costs creating jobs. We've done that on chips. I 267 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 7: want to do that for critical minerals. I want to 268 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 7: secure supply chain from the place that I'm so proud 269 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 7: to call home. We're the best manufacturing economy in the world, 270 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,359 Speaker 7: and our state needs a champion. That's what I'm advocating 271 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 7: for each and every single day here. 272 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 6: Well, you mentioned that the Vice President is in your 273 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 6: state of Michigan today. His remarks that have concluded, but 274 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 6: in part he says, and this is a quote in November, 275 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 6: It's going to be very simple. Do we support the 276 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 6: people who made US hundreds and hundreds of dollars richer 277 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 6: or the people who made US hundreds and hundreds of 278 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 6: dollars poorer? Referencing in part this administration's efforts on taxes, 279 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 6: as tax returns are larger, at least at this point 280 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 6: on average, than they were prior to the big beautiful 281 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 6: bill being passed. What do you say to a Michigan 282 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 6: or who does have more money coming into their wallet 283 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 6: in that regard right now? Should they not be glad 284 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 6: that that policy exists. 285 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 7: Look, I'm going to tell you something. This administration is 286 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 7: one big drift. They're the ones getting rich. They're the 287 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 7: ones profiting off of cuts two programs that you don't 288 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 7: benefit so many Michiganders to the fully paralyzed veteran who 289 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 7: reached out to me last year asking if he was 290 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 7: still going to get his benefit checked because Elon Musk 291 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 7: prancing around a stage with a chainsaw. I just authored 292 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 7: a bill called stop Enrichment in the Congress. People here, 293 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 7: we've got to stop that. Stopped trading in the House 294 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 7: of Representatives, the Senate, and also in the Executive Office. 295 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 7: And that's what my bill does. No sitting on corporate boards. 296 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 7: Stop the grift here, and so we're all paying that price. 297 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 7: I want to see tax fairness. It needs to go 298 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 7: further for working Michiganders. They need more money in their pocketbook, 299 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 7: not to continue to pay at a higher marginal rate 300 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 7: than the corporations or in some cases the billionaires. 301 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 2: Congress Woman you mentioned JD Vass, he is in your 302 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 2: backyard today Auburn Hills at a company called Engineering Design Serve, 303 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 2: which is involved in robotics, engineering and design. This is 304 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 2: something that the administration, this type of technology, has tried 305 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 2: to harness and it's something that you've been involved with 306 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,640 Speaker 2: as well. With your background in the auto sector, going 307 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 2: back to the Obama administration. 308 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:16,959 Speaker 3: I'm old enough to remember this. 309 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 2: I wonder what your advice would be for jd Vance 310 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,960 Speaker 2: when he speaks to the workers at Engineering Design Services, 311 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 2: what he should know about Auburn Hills today. 312 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 9: Yeah. 313 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 7: Well, look, the voice of our manufacturers and our manufacturing 314 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 7: workers needs to be heard at the lawmaking table. We've 315 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:37,679 Speaker 7: got to ask in terms of what they're paying for 316 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 7: erradic tariffs, what they have paid, what that's cost them, 317 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 7: What policies need to come into place to secure our 318 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 7: state and our workers to go and win the future. 319 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 7: I've spent a ton of time in Auburn Hills visiting 320 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 7: manufacturers from FEV to board Warner and on, people who 321 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 7: were standing up your the COVID crisis to meet our 322 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 7: supply chain disruptions and considerations to make sure that Michiganders 323 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 7: got masks and ventilators. There's so much incredible innovation going 324 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 7: on in Auburn Hills, Michigan. And of course what's going 325 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 7: on with Canada. Is jd Vance going to say that 326 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 7: we're going to open up that bridge the Gordy? How 327 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 7: that President Trump is shuttering because that impacts us too 328 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 7: that impacts trade. You know, we've got in my congressional district, 329 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 7: you know, the second busiest airport in Michigan because of 330 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 7: the freight that just goes on, you know, between our 331 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 7: trade partners, and yet those relationships have been diminished and impacted. 332 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 8: By some of these policies. 333 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,719 Speaker 7: So yeah, listen to our manufacturers and then do something. 334 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 6: All right, Congressman, thank you so much for joining us. 335 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 6: Democratic Congressman Haley Stevens of Michigan, of course, also a 336 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,919 Speaker 6: Senate candidate for Michigan, thank you for being here on 337 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 6: Bloomberg TV and radio. And we want to play this 338 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 6: conversation now to our political panel who is joining us 339 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 6: Bloomber Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano. Rick stone Court, 340 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 6: capital partner and Republican strategist. Genie are Democratic analyst and 341 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 6: senior visiting our democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's 342 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 6: Ash Center. As we talk about jd Vance's affordability messaging, 343 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 6: which the congresswoman was just talking about, Rick, it's also 344 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,360 Speaker 6: worth pointing out that he did face questions in Michigan 345 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 6: today about the war in Iran, what they're doing, what 346 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 6: it is doing to gas prices. Also about the resignation 347 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,920 Speaker 6: of Joe Ken, who until yesterday was the counter terrorism chief, 348 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,479 Speaker 6: Vance said, this is a quote nobody likes war. I 349 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:38,120 Speaker 6: guarantee the President of the United States is not interested 350 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 6: in getting us into the kind of long term quagmires 351 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 6: that we've seen in years past. It seems rick that 352 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 6: he's just trying to cast this as this is a 353 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 6: different president, which is why I feel differently about something 354 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 6: like this compared to how I always have historically. Is 355 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 6: he doing a good enough job walking the line here? 356 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 10: I don't know if he's doing a good enough job 357 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,400 Speaker 10: walking the line. There's a pretty big split in MAGA 358 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 10: over the incursion into Iran, and I know it's got 359 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 10: to be difficult for him to try to please both 360 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 10: the non interventionists with those who are much more muscular 361 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 10: on foreign policy. He's going to lose that fight. There's 362 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 10: no such thing as being both. And I'd say he's 363 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 10: probably already pretty well defined as someone who was very 364 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 10: much in the America first line and has now sort 365 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 10: of sacrificed that, which will weaken his prospects in the 366 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 10: future if he plans to run for national office. Again, 367 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 10: So I do think it's a political problem for JD Vans. 368 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,239 Speaker 2: I don't know what Joe Kent is thinking about this 369 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 2: right now, Genie, But a day after his resignation over 370 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 2: the war in Iran, suggesting that there was no imminent threat, 371 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 2: this is the head of our counter terror agency. He's 372 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 2: going to be on the Tucker Carlson program later on today. 373 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 2: So what extent could he further exacerbate this divide within MAGA. 374 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 8: Oh, I think he's gonna underscore it. 375 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,199 Speaker 11: And you know, Joe and Kayley I was listening and 376 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 11: I know you guys were to the hearing going on 377 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 11: today with Tulci Gabbard. 378 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 8: What a day on Capitol Hill for hearings. 379 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 11: And one of the big questions that she was asked 380 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 11: repeatedly had to do with this question of an imminent threat, 381 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:27,160 Speaker 11: because of course, the intelligent intelligence community's assessment was that 382 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,679 Speaker 11: Aron did not pose an imminent threat. 383 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 8: She was asked repeatedly to confirm. 384 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 11: That, because of course the president is saying they did, 385 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,360 Speaker 11: and she said that it is up to the president 386 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 11: to determine what is an imminent threat and what isn't. 387 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,679 Speaker 11: And so this question one also Carolyn Levitt has been 388 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 11: asked repeatedly about what is an imminent threat what is not? 389 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 11: Is it up to the president to determine that. That 390 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:53,919 Speaker 11: is all the rage And of course, as Rick was 391 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 11: just talking about, it has split the MAGA base terribly, 392 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 11: and Joe Kent, Megan Kelly Joe wrote, and I mean 393 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 11: the list goes on and on. Certainly Tucker Carlson are 394 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 11: taking one side of this, and this is starting to 395 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 11: look a little bit like the sort of ball off 396 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 11: we found with George bush Well. 397 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 6: And it's incredible. As we consider Gabbard's spoken testimony, she 398 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:19,360 Speaker 6: actually omitted something that was included in her written opening statement. 399 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 6: She was going to say Iron's nuclear enrichment program was 400 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 6: obliterated in Operation Midnight Hammer back last June, and that 401 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 6: their quote has been no efforts since then to try 402 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,640 Speaker 6: to rebuild their enrichment capability, but she did not say 403 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 6: that out loud. Ultimately in her opening statement, Rick, what 404 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:36,120 Speaker 6: do you make of that? 405 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 10: Well, I mean she would have been contradicting the President 406 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 10: of United States, who made a point that part of 407 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 10: the concerns they had was that the Iranians could reproduce 408 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 10: their enrichment program and come out with a potential bomb 409 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 10: nuclear bomb sometime in the very near future, which has 410 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 10: helped precipitate the attack on Iran. I would say, just 411 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 10: as a point on this magas even though there is 412 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 10: a fight in Maga over this, it has not actually 413 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 10: in order to the weakness of the president, he is 414 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 10: still getting ninety percent of Republican support for his efforts 415 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 10: in Iran. And so even though there is this fight 416 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 10: at a sort of policy level, if you want to 417 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 10: call it that, it hasn't risen to the political level yet. 418 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 2: Wow, how come that is Rick? What do you make 419 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,479 Speaker 2: of that? And could that change? If you know, this 420 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 2: becomes a week's if not months long endeavor in oil 421 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 2: prices keep rising. 422 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 9: I mean, the. 423 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 10: Reality from my perspective is Donald Trump is seen as 424 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:42,520 Speaker 10: a powerful, you know, aggressive fighter, and these characteristics are 425 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:47,400 Speaker 10: what the Maga Republican Party like about him. They're much 426 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 10: less concerned about specific issues. And if President Trump says 427 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 10: We're going to take a U turn and go in 428 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,919 Speaker 10: a different direction, I believe at least for a while, 429 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 10: he'll have the command of that party behind him. The 430 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 10: question is, and this is I guess the point that 431 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,199 Speaker 10: jadie Vance was trying to make is how long is 432 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 10: that patience going to last? And when does it run out? 433 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,640 Speaker 10: Because I think that's on the question of everybody's lips 434 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 10: right now. 435 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,360 Speaker 3: What are we in for here? 436 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 2: What are we in for here? Great question that we 437 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 2: will keep asking with the help of our panel. Thanks 438 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 2: to both of you. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and 439 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano are great panel. Stay with us on Balance 440 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 2: of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. 441 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 442 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 443 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 1: Alma Coarchlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 444 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 445 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,360 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 446 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee lines here in Washington with our 447 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,120 Speaker 2: eyes on Iran, more specifically, the Straight of Horor moves, 448 00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,399 Speaker 2: which remains largely closed save for for a couple of 449 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,400 Speaker 2: vessels that managed to get through over the past couple 450 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 2: of days. And that is why we're seeing West Texas 451 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 2: Intermediate closer to one hundred brent closer to one hundred 452 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 2: and nine this afternoon. We heard about this earlier today 453 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio and conversation with Jeff Curry, 454 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,440 Speaker 2: chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlisle. 455 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 3: Here's his take. 456 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,719 Speaker 12: The type of oil consumption that's left in the global 457 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,440 Speaker 12: economy is critical, and so if you pull those barrels 458 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 12: out of the system, the rippling factor, the cascading effect 459 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:30,400 Speaker 12: through global supply change. 460 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:31,440 Speaker 9: Is going to be significant. 461 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 12: You go from gas to urea urea, a fertilizer's fertilizers, 462 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:36,120 Speaker 12: to the dinner table. 463 00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,679 Speaker 2: And to our table here in Washington with Clayton Siegel, 464 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 2: who's senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 465 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 2: we have the voice of another expert, Clayton. It's great 466 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 2: to see you and welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 467 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 2: We're talking weeks, maybe months. How much worse could this get? 468 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 9: Well, could get considerably worse. 469 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 13: The oil market is always trying to price both the 470 00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 13: duration and the volume of a disruption, and for the powers, 471 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 13: let's say several weeks, we've seen almost no oil and 472 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 13: gas cargoes coming out of the Gulf. As you said, 473 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 13: Iran is playing a bit of a gatekeeper function right now, 474 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,439 Speaker 13: deciding which of a few handfuls of ships have been 475 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 13: able to get out, maybe get to China with some oil, 476 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 13: but from the most part the golf is still paralyzed 477 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 13: to oil and gas traffic. 478 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 6: Well, and of course the traffic is one thing, but 479 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 6: there's also the question of the actual infrastructure that produces 480 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 6: it in the first place, and Iran is now declaring 481 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,119 Speaker 6: that that infrastructure is fair game to be targeted, actually 482 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 6: sending out a list of targets that could be aimed 483 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,639 Speaker 6: at for retaliation for Israel striking it's South Park Pars 484 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 6: gas field. This kind of escalation. Is this the worst 485 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 6: case scenario for the global energy market? 486 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:42,440 Speaker 9: It really is among them, Kayley. 487 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 13: We looked at some scenarios like this for escalation before 488 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:47,119 Speaker 13: the war started, and one of them was about the 489 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 13: two sides not just blocking each other's exports and shipping, 490 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 13: but actually destroying offshore facilities and even onshore facilities that 491 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,960 Speaker 13: could take a really long time to repair and keep 492 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 13: this supply offline for long. And then you start to 493 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,679 Speaker 13: get to pricing in the oil market that's really around 494 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 13: demand curtailment. And I think back to twenty twenty two 495 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 13: when the national average price of gasoline in the United 496 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 13: States hit a record five dollars per gallon. I hope 497 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 13: we're not heading in that direction, but there are signs 498 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 13: that we may be, especially in Asia, in the physical 499 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,679 Speaker 13: market that's different than what we see on the ticker here, 500 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 13: where it's only around one hundred up there, refined product 501 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 13: prices are closer to two hundred in some cases. 502 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 2: Well, you know, the administration's playing all the greatest hits 503 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 2: when you get into this territory. We've already had a 504 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 2: release approof from the spr President today waiving the Jones Act, 505 00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 2: which is something that we saw coming. It allows foreign 506 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 2: flag vessels to carry goods between US ports, and it 507 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:42,399 Speaker 2: gives a sixty day window. 508 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 3: Will that make any difference. 509 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 13: By itself in isolation? It might not make that much 510 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,160 Speaker 13: of a difference in terms of punt prices. It allows 511 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,480 Speaker 13: the Gulf Coast to supply the East Coast a little 512 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 13: bit more easily and at slightly lower cost to the 513 00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,359 Speaker 13: midstream companies, but it's not really going to put a 514 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 13: dent in four dollars gallon gasoline five dollars gallon gasoline. 515 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 9: If that's where we're headed. 516 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,920 Speaker 13: To do that, you really need those supplies, which are 517 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 13: critical for world demand to be resumed from the Middle 518 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 13: East GOULF. There's really no substitute, and all of these 519 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 13: policy accommodations that we're talking about here in town can 520 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,199 Speaker 13: really just buy us more time to get to that 521 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:19,120 Speaker 13: ultimate outcome. 522 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 6: Okay, So basically there is no policy fix for this 523 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:27,199 Speaker 6: particular problem, despite what the administration might wish. So what 524 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 6: does that mean as we're now half an hour or 525 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,920 Speaker 6: so away from a FED decision about what the monetary 526 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 6: response is likely to be. Can is you talk about 527 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,679 Speaker 6: the idea that you need demand destruction come in? Can 528 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 6: higher interest rates fix the supply shortage problem realistically? 529 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:42,959 Speaker 9: I don't think so, Kaylee. 530 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 13: I think that in this environment, the number one concern 531 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 13: is a return of general inflation, and we've fought a 532 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 13: lot of battles in recent years to tame inflation. Monetary 533 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,960 Speaker 13: policy is a huge part of that. And the question 534 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 13: now is does the FED have room to further cut 535 00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 13: rates if we're worried about resurgence in inflation that comes 536 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,520 Speaker 13: not only from the direct effects of higher oil prices, 537 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 13: but Joe, as you said before the segment, the cascading 538 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 13: effects through the economy which go to agriculture. They go 539 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 13: to the paralyzed nature of shipping around the world and 540 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 13: not enough capacity to move stuff around. All of this 541 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 13: is macroeconomic risk. 542 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 2: Even helium is being held up, which doesn't have to 543 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 2: do with party balloons, but in fact the creation of 544 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 2: high ENDAI chips is being used to cool these data centers. 545 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 2: It's amazing how many tentacles there are coming out of 546 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 2: the Strait of hor Moves. The President likes to talk 547 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 2: about the pipes. He says, I call them the pipes. 548 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 2: He's referring to the gas pipelines on Carg Island, which 549 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 2: he chose not to bomb when we struck carg Island 550 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 2: a couple of days ago. 551 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 3: What would happen if we did. 552 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 9: Well in the scenarios we looked at. 553 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 13: There's three levers that we could play with Harg Island, 554 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,840 Speaker 13: which is so important because that's where the Iranian crewed 555 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 13: exports originate. We could destroy it, but as the President 556 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,160 Speaker 13: pointed out, that would really be doing a disservice to 557 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 13: the Iranian people. We're supposed to be going in and 558 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 13: rescue them, help them with the future after this regime. 559 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,800 Speaker 13: We could try seas we could land troops on Harg Island, 560 00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,960 Speaker 13: and get our hands on the spigott, but our troops 561 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,360 Speaker 13: could come under fire there. I think that that's a 562 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 13: big risk to consider. I think that we could accomplish 563 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 13: what we want to do if we repeat the success 564 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 13: story from Venezuela, a naval quarantine that block ships carrying 565 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 13: Iranian oil from getting to market. That would maybe level 566 00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 13: the playing field a little bit with Tehran at less 567 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 13: risk to our servicemen and women. 568 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 6: If we hadn't gone into Venezuela and have the accessibility 569 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,200 Speaker 6: of that oil now in the global market, how much 570 00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,960 Speaker 6: worse could this have been? What difference really isn't making. 571 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 13: I'm afraid to say it's not making a difference at all. 572 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,040 Speaker 13: The extra oil from Venezuela is maybe just a couple 573 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 13: hundred thousand barrels per day. There's still around a million 574 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,600 Speaker 13: barrels per day in a one hundred million barrel per 575 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 13: day market. It's a drop in the bucket compared to 576 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 13: missing ten or fifteen million barrels a day from the Gulf. 577 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 3: Interesting. 578 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 2: The idea of committing troops or special ops, commandos whatever 579 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,360 Speaker 2: we call them, to a place like carg Island or 580 00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,160 Speaker 2: for instance, to seize the enriched uranium that we still 581 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 2: not located. Would that be a market moving headline to 582 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 2: the extent that we're seeing now. Would we see further 583 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 2: gains in oil on such a thing that many folks 584 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:11,680 Speaker 2: think is inevitable. 585 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 13: Well, we have a split market right now between futures 586 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 13: which are generally sanguine about risk, and the physical market, 587 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 13: which is getting ready for shortages. So I think we 588 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 13: would see price effects in both markets, and they would 589 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 13: read it in the way that they want to read 590 00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,959 Speaker 13: it to validate their position. So I think some people 591 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 13: on the futures market may say, hey, it's almost over 592 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 13: now that the US is intervening on the ground, But 593 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 13: in the physical market they'd be worried about those supplies. 594 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 6: Well, as we consider that the US is considering at 595 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 6: least sending even more personnel and assets in The President 596 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 6: has also asked the same of allies like Europeans, who, 597 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,479 Speaker 6: he argues, and he's right, are more exposed to this 598 00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 6: particular energy story. If you're Europe already cut off from 599 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 6: Russian natural gas by and large, you now have a 600 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 6: major problem if you also can't get lerg in the 601 00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 6: like out of the Middle East. Knowing that Europeans central 602 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,200 Speaker 6: banks have decisions to make this week. The ECB and 603 00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,840 Speaker 6: the BOE on deck tomorrow. How much worse is this 604 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 6: going to be for Europe in particular when it comes 605 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 6: to the energy story. 606 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,800 Speaker 13: It will be worse for Europe in certain fuels markets 607 00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 13: like the Middle distillate grouping, which is things like diesel 608 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 13: close to jet fuel. Europe will have problems supplying if 609 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,360 Speaker 13: there's a real outage. But the number one region for 610 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 13: concern of running shortages by far is Asia. Japan gets 611 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,680 Speaker 13: seventy eight percent of their supplies from the Gulf, South 612 00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:32,240 Speaker 13: Korea sixty two, and China, which needs eleven million barrels 613 00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,440 Speaker 13: per day to run the show, gets about half from 614 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 13: the golf. The overarching problem here is that Iran basically 615 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 13: now controls not just the Strait of Horror Moves, so 616 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,320 Speaker 13: we don't want to over index there, but the whole 617 00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 13: Middle East Golf. Until that situation changes, we are at 618 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 13: risk of real supply shortage. 619 00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:48,440 Speaker 3: Five dollars. 620 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,920 Speaker 2: Diesel was a big headline yesterday, the fact that it's 621 00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 2: used for so much global shipping. What would continue increases 622 00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:59,160 Speaker 2: in diesel mean for not just the energy market but 623 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 2: the global economy. 624 00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 13: That's what we worry about in terms of the transference 625 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 13: into the macroeconomic story and GDP because if it costs more, 626 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 13: so diesel is the fuel of the eighteen wheeler. It 627 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 13: takes everything that we buy from market or port to 628 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 13: stores and ultimately our doorsteps. And if they have to 629 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,959 Speaker 13: start working in higher prices for deliveries and transportation prices 630 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:20,760 Speaker 13: for everything, we're going. 631 00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:22,240 Speaker 9: To go up, all right. 632 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,640 Speaker 6: Clayton Siegel, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic getting 633 00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 6: International Studies, Thank you so much. 634 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 635 00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,680 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 636 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 637 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 638 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.