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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing into spec I'm saying it to cat touchdown.

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Speaker 1: See, most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 1: to win. God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I

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Speaker 1: like to make money. All right, this is the ultimate kabaia.

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Speaker 2: And we are.

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Speaker 1: Happy New Year. Everybody.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast sponsored by a bet MGM.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 3: Week eighteen betting preview. We're gonna talk our favorite sides, totals, teasers,

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Speaker 3: moneyline dougs, and of course crack open our Sunday six

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Speaker 3: pack of against the spread bets with the help of

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Speaker 3: my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky

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Speaker 3: we stuck.

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Speaker 1: Happy New Year. How's it going?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Happy New Year, brother. Unfortunately all good runs must

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Speaker 2: come to an end. My undefeated record on the Bills,

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Speaker 2: but I will say thought it was doomed right when

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Speaker 2: Jalen Rager, of all players, he returned the opening kick

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Speaker 2: for a touchdown. I think it was the wrong side.

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Speaker 2: That's why we hate laying double digitous NFL. So my

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Speaker 2: Ravens fortunately took care of business. So hopefully for anyone

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Speaker 2: who took a Bill's future and a Ravens and or

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Speaker 2: a Ravens future, because Bill's in that two seed is

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Speaker 2: uber important for both. But as I always say, who

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Speaker 2: cares what happened last week, It's good to see you

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Speaker 2: get back on track. Let's both get hot here heading

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Speaker 2: into the playoffs. This is Week eighteen is one of

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Speaker 2: my favorite weeks of the season. It's always just expect

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Speaker 2: the unexpected, expect chaos. These teams that need to win,

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Speaker 2: a couple of them will almost certainly go down.

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Speaker 1: I like this late.

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Speaker 3: I think this is a really good slate, A lot

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Speaker 3: of options here, So yeah, let's jump right into it.

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Speaker 3: No Thursday night football, so we can go straight into

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Speaker 3: our Week eight six pack.

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Speaker 1: Thirsty for action, Let's crack open the six.

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Speaker 3: Pack, and of course the six pack will include the

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Speaker 3: Saturday games as well. That would be the Texans Colts game,

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Speaker 3: the Ravens Steelers game sixty five sixty.

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Speaker 2: You are up before we could start. Let me quickly

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Speaker 2: lay the land here of what goes on at Week eighteen. Well,

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Speaker 2: there's six teams that are winning in scenarios. Texans' Cults

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Speaker 2: play each other Bucks are at the Panthers, Jags are

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Speaker 2: at the Titans, Packers home against the Bears, Bill's at

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins. Bills also could get in be a wild

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Speaker 2: card depending on what happens earlier in the weekend. Five

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Speaker 2: teams need help you win and then need help Steelers, Falcons, Saints, Seahawks,

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Speaker 2: and Vikings. Seven teams could potentially rest all their starters.

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Speaker 2: We'll update you on all the news. There he goes

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Speaker 2: forty nine Ers, Rams, Lines, Ravens, Chiefs, and Browns. And

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Speaker 2: if you go back historically, I've been tracking this. I

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Speaker 2: had to go back one I remember going back to

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Speaker 2: nineteen ninety to figure out who needed to win who didn't,

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Speaker 2: and then I'd been keeping track ever since. But since

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Speaker 2: nineteen ninety, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win

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Speaker 2: over the final two weeks of the regular season, so

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Speaker 2: teams nothing to play for playing teams that need to

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Speaker 2: win one hundred sixty four and four against the spread

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Speaker 2: sixty one percent this season, or I should say this weekend.

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Speaker 2: There are four teams that fit that mold. The Bears,

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals, the Titans, and the Panthers as eliminated teams

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Speaker 2: playing teams that need to win. To frame it another way,

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Speaker 2: teams a winning percentage between forty and sixty. Now, some

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Speaker 2: of them are already in the playoffs, but just if

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Speaker 2: you go on our Action Labs database, teams of winning

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Speaker 2: percentage between forty and sixty in weeks sixteen or later

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Speaker 2: have gone just twenty nine seventy two to five. That's

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Speaker 2: twenty eight point seven percent against the spread against opponents

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Speaker 2: with an eight to twenty five percent worst winning percentage

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Speaker 2: feeling to cover by four points per game over the

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Speaker 2: past twenty years. That applies to the Jags and Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: This week, you are up first where you going, So

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Speaker 2: that will actually bring me to my first pick of

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Speaker 2: the week eighteen Saturday and Sunday six pack. I'm going

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Speaker 2: with the Tennessee Titans plus five and a half at

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Speaker 2: home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans have had it's

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Speaker 2: been a miserable year for them. It's called what it

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Speaker 2: is they have. They're a mess on the offensive line,

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Speaker 2: they're a mess on the back end of the defense.

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Speaker 2: But Vrabel watched his pressers all week. He's gonna have

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Speaker 2: his team ready here. This becomes their super Bowl. They

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Speaker 2: could ruin the jag season, their division rival. They're at home,

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Speaker 2: where they've played much better at home this year. I

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Speaker 2: think the Titans are four and three in true home

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Speaker 2: games this year. Their losses are in over time twice,

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Speaker 2: all to teams fighting for playoff positioning, and then they

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Speaker 2: lost on the last second touchdown to the Seahawks. So

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Speaker 2: they haven't lost by more than three at home this season,

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Speaker 2: and there are a couple bounces away from having like

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Speaker 2: eight wins and being in this ridiculous AFC South race

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Speaker 2: the Jaguars. This line, first of all, is just inflated.

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Speaker 2: The Jaguars have been a mess, and now all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden we're just saying, Okay, everything's fine because they

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Speaker 2: blew out the Panthers last week. We don't know if

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence is gonna play, and if he does, how

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Speaker 2: healthy he's going to be. We don't know how healthy

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Speaker 2: the receivers are going to be, and that's a major

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Speaker 2: problem because how do you attack this Tennessee defense. It's

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Speaker 2: on the back end. It's through the air. So I

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Speaker 2: think whoever it's Tannehill or Lewis, they can have enough

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Speaker 2: success throwing the ball down the field against this Jacksonville secondary.

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Speaker 2: It's rable getting the troops ready. He's twenty four to

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Speaker 2: twelve and two against spread as an underdog at least

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Speaker 2: a field goal covering by four points per game. I

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Speaker 2: like the Titans in a classic Week eighteen spot trying

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Speaker 2: to ruin the Jags season. Jags, we've seen this team

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Speaker 2: two years ago as a two touchdown favorite at home.

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Speaker 2: A lose to the Colts in a winning in scenario.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't be shocked if Tennessee pulls off the upset. But

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Speaker 2: I think at the minimum, it's going to be close

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Speaker 2: high like the Titans here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this Jag team is not seven or more

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Speaker 3: points better than the Titans on a neutral field. You

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Speaker 3: got the revenge spot from last year when the Jags

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Speaker 3: knocked the Titans out. You know this Jag team banged

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Speaker 3: up on offense. I mean, you know day Jones is

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Speaker 3: banged up. Ridwy's been inconsistent. Who knows what's going on

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Speaker 3: with Lawrence? And you know Lawrence is like force injury.

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Speaker 3: I mean, geez, so he might not be right even

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Speaker 3: if he goes So Yeah, I totally agree. I have

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Speaker 3: my first pick and the second overall of the week

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Speaker 3: eighteen six pack, I'm going with the Houston Texans minus

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Speaker 3: one at the Indianapolis Colts.

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Speaker 1: Houston.

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Speaker 3: I think this is the better team, better quarterback. I

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Speaker 3: think the Colts are playing above their head. Love what

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Speaker 3: Shane Steichen has been doing, but I still think this

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Speaker 3: team has been getting lucky, you know, negative point defferential.

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Speaker 3: Just bite the nine and seven record the matchup, you know,

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Speaker 3: Houston and Stroud, especially destroys zone coverage. The Coats are third,

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Speaker 3: and zone coverage rate Stroud vers zone one, twelve passer rating,

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Speaker 3: seventy one percent completion rate, eight and a half adjusted

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Speaker 3: net yards in an attempt against Man that drops to

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Speaker 3: eighty four rating six fifty four percent completion and a

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Speaker 3: six point one adjusted net yard per attempt, so complete

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Speaker 3: night and day. I think, you know, Nico Collins looks

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Speaker 3: like he's healthy, so that's really all I need for Stroud.

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Speaker 3: Dalton Shults healthy as well, you know, and Apple's up

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Speaker 3: to number two in our luck rankings now, so kind

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Speaker 3: of to my point, they're twenty fourth in pressure rate.

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Speaker 1: CJ.

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Speaker 3: Stroud from a clean pocket has just destroyed defense is

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Speaker 3: nine point three yards in attempt nineteen touchdowns, five picks,

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Speaker 3: one ten passer rating when he's pressured just five point

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Speaker 3: four yards in attempt two touchdowns, a seventy two rating.

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Speaker 3: I think, Minshew, you know four percent turnover worthy throw

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Speaker 3: rate is the fourth highest of twenty seven quarterbacks with

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Speaker 3: at least three hundred and forty dropbacks, and he's only

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Speaker 3: ahead of Daniel Jones, Desmond Ritter, and Josh Dobbs, who

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Speaker 3: all aren't starting for whatever reason. Essentially benched. I mean

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Speaker 3: Jones might as well have been benched even though he

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Speaker 3: got hurt and then rare situation. But when you have

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Speaker 3: a primetime game teams on a road, for what, it's

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Speaker 3: worse when both teams are on when are.

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Speaker 1: On short rest.

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Speaker 3: The road team is twenty two to seven and two

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Speaker 3: against the spread seventy six percent over the last couple

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Speaker 3: of decades. So we really like this Texans spot here.

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Speaker 3: I think this Colt team, the luck is gonna run

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Speaker 3: out here. I do like what they've been doing. But

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Speaker 3: and I was lucky to cover last week with that

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Speaker 3: Davonte Adams hell of a catch.

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Speaker 2: But I think I was out clapping for you when I.

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Speaker 3: Was like yeah, I was like, we finally got one

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Speaker 3: we finally got a good beat after like I've seen

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Speaker 3: like two months of bad ones, but I thought he didn't.

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Speaker 1: Get it live.

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Speaker 2: I was like, but it's DeVante And then they showed

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Speaker 2: the replay and I was like, wow, what a catch.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just I mean, what a stud But yeah, So

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Speaker 3: it's just essentially a bet on CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud against Gardner Minshew.

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Speaker 3: You know the you know, both teams a little bit

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Speaker 3: banged up here, but I just think the matchup favors Stroud.

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Speaker 3: You know, first division, get first game. Colts got the

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Speaker 3: victory double digits. Usually in these division games, the team

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Speaker 3: that lost, I think has a little bit of an

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Speaker 3: edge make adjustments.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, give me Houston minus one. Yeah that.

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Speaker 2: I would lean Houston's way. I agree with the move

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Speaker 2: here that Colts opened as a favorite. I think that

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Speaker 2: this is going to come down to Stroud versus Minshew, Like,

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Speaker 2: you have to attack this Houston defense through the air

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Speaker 2: and downfield, and the Colts secondary is also vulnerable, and

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Speaker 2: as you mentioned, there's its favorable schematic matchup for Stroud.

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Speaker 2: I think ultimately what the difference in this game is

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Speaker 2: going to be is Minshew. One of the reasons that

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Speaker 2: Colts have been lucky, and we've been calling them a

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Speaker 2: fraud is I mean, their defense isn't that good. It's

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Speaker 2: still Gardner Minshew. He's been getting away with a lot

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Speaker 2: of turnover worthy plays, has some mistakes still coming his

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Speaker 2: way in all likelihoods. So I think that's what decides

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Speaker 2: this game. Minshew makes a key mistake or two. The

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Speaker 2: only thing that would give me hesitation is it's and

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Speaker 2: we're both huge fans of Stroud rightfully, so it's a

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Speaker 2: tough spot for rookie on the road winning in so

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Speaker 2: we'll learn a lot about him. Does he end up

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Speaker 2: making you know, does he end up like trying to

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Speaker 2: force too many balls? Does he try to So that's

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Speaker 2: what I would worry about. I think it's gonna come

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Speaker 2: down to who which quarterback makes an additional mistake or two.

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Speaker 2: So I'm a bit worried about Stroud just in this

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Speaker 2: spot with his inexperience. But having said that, I still

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Speaker 2: think Minsha is more likely to make the key mistake,

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Speaker 2: So I agree with you. Second pick in the third

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Speaker 2: overall the week eighteen six pack, I'm going with the

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Speaker 2: New York Football Giants plus four and a half against

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Speaker 2: the Philadelphia Eagles. We had Eagles fans yelling at us.

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Speaker 2: They started off ten and one, they're one in four.

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Speaker 2: Since nothing is good right now. I mean there's reports

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Speaker 2: the locker room being fractured. AJ Brown's not talking anyone,

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Speaker 2: and they're not even throwing the ball anymore. The play

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Speaker 2: calling on both sides has been horrendous. They can't figure

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Speaker 2: out how to deal with a blitz just I mean

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Speaker 2: it's off of hurts his blindside. Well, guess what, You're

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Speaker 2: gonna get a lot of blitzes here against New York.

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Speaker 2: The defense is progressing bad. They can't cover anyone in

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Speaker 2: the back end. I'm gonna get Tyrod Taylor here for

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Speaker 2: New York. Big upgrade over Tommy Devido. They almost came

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Speaker 2: back and beat Philly would be owned five in the

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Speaker 2: last five games if Tyrod Taylor finished off that comeback

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Speaker 2: after de Vito went out with an injury. I think

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Speaker 2: the Giants, who are still playing hard, almost beat the

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Speaker 2: Rams last week, almost came back against the Eagles. I

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Speaker 2: think the Giants are super live here. This Eagles team

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Speaker 2: has problems across the roster. I don't look, I don't

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Speaker 2: know where they're at. Mentally, they might be able to

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Speaker 2: reset for the playoffs. There's some holes on this roster.

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Speaker 2: The offensive coordinator Brian Johnson's probably gonna go at the

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Speaker 2: end of the year if they don't make a run.

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Speaker 2: Matt Patricia, he's dropping Reddick in to coverage the whole

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Speaker 2: game against Arizona. I mean, I don't know what is

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Speaker 2: going on there. The reports on the locker room are bad.

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Speaker 2: And then you have the Week eighteen variants here. Sirianni

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Speaker 2: said early in the week is considering sitting in starters.

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Speaker 2: I didn't think he'd do that, he said earlier this week.

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Speaker 2: He thinks they're all going to play. But I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: it's you need in order for this game to matter.

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Speaker 2: You need the Cowboys to lose his two touchdown favorites,

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Speaker 2: and you need to win this game, and then you

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Speaker 2: would win the division. But you know, so you could say, look,

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Speaker 2: it's not worth the injury risk because it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: bad weather in this game and it's on a turf

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Speaker 2: that just eats up people consistently, so you might say.

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Speaker 2: You might not say before the game, although Sirianni said

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Speaker 2: it's on the table, so you might not say, hey,

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Speaker 2: let's rest anyone before the game.

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Speaker 1: But if Dallas is.

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Speaker 2: Up fourteen in the third quarter, is there any reason

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Speaker 2: to one play hurts too, have them run anywhere? Probably not,

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Speaker 2: So you might pull some starters worry about health once

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Speaker 2: that game's in the bag, which could really open up

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Speaker 2: the back door for New York. But even if that

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Speaker 2: doesn't happen, the Eagles right now are just a mess.

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Speaker 2: Giants are playing hard. I like New York here with

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Speaker 2: the points added. Bonus, if the starters, with all the

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Speaker 2: starters you know you have, like DeVante Smith is banged up,

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Speaker 2: there's a couple guys that slay. The Eagles aren't fully

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Speaker 2: healthy either, so and I think anyone that's like dealing

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Speaker 2: with a little injury, they might hold out or they're

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Speaker 2: definitely gonna pull if the Cowboys do pull away. So

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Speaker 2: just that extra potential only help sus bect But I'd

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Speaker 2: like it anyway. So give me the New York Football

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Speaker 2: Giants at home against the Philadelphia Eagles for my second pick.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree too with this one.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this Eagle team, you could just get one

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Speaker 3: of those situations where they don't really arrest anyone outside

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Speaker 3: of maybe maybe Smith or somebody like that. But it's

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Speaker 3: like you remember that we talked about the Cowboys just

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Speaker 3: laying an egg last year, similar kind of spot, so

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Speaker 3: you could also just get the Eagles laying an egg

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Speaker 3: on offense.

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Speaker 2: Eagles now eleven and five with a plus twenty two

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Speaker 2: net scoring margin. Eight of their eleven wins have come

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Speaker 2: by one possession. I like the Giants. Where are you

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Speaker 2: going next?

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Speaker 1: For my second pick?

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Speaker 3: The fourth overall the week eighteen six pack, going with

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Speaker 3: the Baltimore Ravens plus three and a half at home

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Speaker 3: against the Pittsburgh Steelers, And I just think this line

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Speaker 3: has been overcorrected. And you know, with Lamar and all

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Speaker 3: those guys healthy or playing, I should say I would

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Speaker 3: make this spread.

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Speaker 1: I'm close to double digits and ten.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, right, so, and now you're talking about the Steelers

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Speaker 3: being favored by not even just three, but three in

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Speaker 3: the hook on the road. I just think this is

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Speaker 3: an egregious line. First of all, we know the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: What do they have like a twenty something game preseason

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Speaker 3: winning streak. We know the Ravens roster just top to

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Speaker 3: bottom is pretty solid, and they could win these kind

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Speaker 3: of games, especially against like a third string quarterback and

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Speaker 3: Mason Rudolph has been better. He's got he got us

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Speaker 3: some covers, got the cover for us last week. But

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Speaker 3: it's you know, buying. You always say it, you know,

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Speaker 3: top of the market.

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Speaker 1: I don't like it.

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Speaker 3: Sounds weird because the Ravens are probably going to be

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Speaker 3: playing backups. But I think this is the top of

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Speaker 3: the market for the Steelers being favored by three and

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Speaker 3: a half on the road against the Ravens in a

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Speaker 3: series where this always gets decided by like three points.

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Speaker 3: In the West, the dog in this series since tom

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Speaker 3: when Tomlin and Harbaugh have faced off, the dog is

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Speaker 3: twenty three five and three against the spread eighty two percent,

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Speaker 3: covering by nearly three points per game. Pittsburgh lo and

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Speaker 3: behold back to number one in our luck rankings. You know,

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Speaker 3: Tyra Huntley, Josh Johnson, whoever it's gonna be for Ravens.

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Speaker 3: These guys have started games. These guys are gonna be

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Speaker 3: no worse than Mason Rudolph. I think, you know, the

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Speaker 3: Steelers getting some explosives from from Pickens and everyone's kind of,

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Speaker 3: you know, back on the bandwagon here. I can't get

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Speaker 3: behind this line at all. I think this, I think

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Speaker 3: this number is way off. I think the Ravens probably

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Speaker 3: at worst this game should be a pick them. So

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Speaker 3: I just you know, and maybe some more news is coming.

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Speaker 3: Maybe you know more guys than Thinker arrested. But you

321
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Speaker 3: can only rest so many guys. That's what people forget

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Speaker 3: too about these situations. It's like you have to have

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Speaker 3: forty six act or I guess what is it, forty eight.

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Speaker 3: If you do the you take advantage of the rules,

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Speaker 3: but you only have so many guys that you can sit.

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Speaker 3: And the Ravens roster top to bottom is pretty solid.

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Speaker 2: I agree with you the Ravens. It's hard now, it's

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Speaker 2: hard to adjust. You're almost assuming like Humphrey Hamilton, Stanley

329
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Speaker 2: Rokwan lamark O'Dell ze. I mean, yeah, maybe's plays, yeah,

330
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Speaker 2: but they probably sit him so so, you know, maybe

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Speaker 2: there's a couple others, but I'm still at like Ravens'

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Speaker 2: tiny marginal favorite. Yeah, and you mentioned that the underdog

333
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Speaker 2: record when the line is three or higher in this

334
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Speaker 2: rivalry nineteen and two against the spread for the underdog

335
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Speaker 2: ninety and a half percent. Steelers might be exhausted here

336
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:35,000
Speaker 2: October twelfth, thirteenth five. This will be their twelfth straight game,

337
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Speaker 2: second on the road, coming to back across the country.

338
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,280
Speaker 2: They've been a must win mode. There could be a

339
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Speaker 2: little fatigue here. This exact same scenario happened in twenty nineteen.

340
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Speaker 2: The Steelers came to Baltimore eight and seven, needed to

341
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Speaker 2: win to get in the playoffs. The Ravens had the

342
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Speaker 2: one seed locked up. They rested Lamar in his MVP season.

343
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Speaker 2: They rested seven other starters Pro bowlers in total. The

344
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 2: Steelers were small favorites in Baltimore with Duck Hodges. Everything

345
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 2: is the same. This is just literally literally happened four

346
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 2: years ago. The Raiden started RG three. They won twenty

347
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Speaker 2: eight to ten as home underdogs. This I did not

348
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:16,920
Speaker 2: think there should be over three. So I agree that

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Speaker 2: this would have been one of my plays.

350
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Speaker 3: If he didn't take it, I think the worst case

351
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 3: scenario would be Mouie Cunningham starting. I got a left

352
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Speaker 3: field even that I couldn't get to this line.

353
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Speaker 1: I don't buy it at all.

354
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Speaker 3: Mike Tomwin on the road as a favorite fifteen and

355
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Speaker 3: twenty six against the spread thirty seven percent, failing to

356
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 3: cover by nearly three points per game. Tomlin, when Pittsburgh

357
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,120
Speaker 3: is favored by a field goal or more coming off

358
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 3: a win thirty six, fifty five and one forty percent

359
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 3: against the spread. Tomlin when Pittsburgh favored by three or

360
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 3: more on the road coming off a win ten twenty

361
00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 3: four and one twenty nine percent, failing to cover by

362
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 3: three point nine points per game.

363
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:07,280
Speaker 1: When you're out of time. We all know it, you

364
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,360
Speaker 1: know what I mean. It's a really bad spot too.

365
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Speaker 3: By the way, Steers stole a victory from the Ravens

366
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,120
Speaker 3: and made it, you know, even tougher for them. Probably

367
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,919
Speaker 3: had them playing longer into the season and they wanted to.

368
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 3: So Steer's Reddit thread after this boocket fire, tom win,

369
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,360
Speaker 3: clean house, everyone must go.

370
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,400
Speaker 1: The narrative is gonna shift so quick.

371
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 2: Tomin season's over. You got the nine wins, He's good.

372
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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's all massive let down spot. It's a

373
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Speaker 1: fine line between, you know, drinking wine and squashing greats.

374
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Speaker 2: All right. For my third pick and the fifth overall

375
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 2: of the week eighteen six pack, I'm going with the

376
00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,440
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers plus four and a half at home against

377
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers goes back in the show. Another

378
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:55,919
Speaker 2: one of these spots eliminated team at home, playing a

379
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 2: team that needs to win to get in the Bucks.

380
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 2: If they win this game, they win the division. So

381
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,280
Speaker 2: I think we're getting a bit of an inflated number here.

382
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 2: And you mentioned the luck rankings. Bucks top five, Panthers

383
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 2: dead last in the NFL. I faded this Bucks team

384
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 2: last week. I think that they're fraudulent. Baker Mayfield's played,

385
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 2: you know, better than I expect him to this year,

386
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:18,479
Speaker 2: but he's still gotten away with a lot of throws.

387
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: Mistakes are coming. He's sort of in that Minshew boat,

388
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 2: and we saw him kind of crashed back down to

389
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 2: earth last week. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few

390
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 2: key mistakes this weeking it's now healthy Carolina defense on

391
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 2: the back end, Carolina's defense worse the NFL against the run.

392
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 2: I think they're thirty second DBA. Well, Tampa Bay's rushing

393
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,680
Speaker 2: offense nothing to write home about. I think they're twenty

394
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 2: seventh or twenty eighth in that department, So that works

395
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 2: well for Carolina. There was weather, I know, a couple

396
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 2: of weeks ago, but these two teams just met in Tampa.

397
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 2: The line closed three and a half on the road

398
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 2: and the Panthers covered they lost by three. It's the

399
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 2: team that's covered three straight at home. It's been a

400
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 2: joyless year for them. I expect them to come out

401
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 2: here with a chance to ruin the Bucks season, finish

402
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,160
Speaker 2: the season on a high. They have no one said

403
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:08,959
Speaker 2: me to lose their draft picks going to the Bears.

404
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 2: So all the pressures on Tampa Bay here. This team

405
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 2: has holes. Baker Mayfield regression season is here. And if

406
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,199
Speaker 2: you want to, if you like fading certain coaches or

407
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 2: quarterbacks as favorites, while these are the two, Mayfield has

408
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 2: a favorite of more than a field goal seven to

409
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,400
Speaker 2: seventeen and one against the spread twenty nine percent, Bowls six,

410
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 2: fourteen and two against the spread thirty percent. So I

411
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 2: think Carolin is gonna get Tampa Bay or run for

412
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,440
Speaker 2: its money right up in a little bitter end, I

413
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 2: actually think they pull off this upset, and I think

414
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 2: Carolina shows up here.

415
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, that would be the only thing that could bail

416
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 3: out our falcons future, right If the Falcons would have

417
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 3: to be the Saints and then the Bucks would have

418
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 3: to lose to the Panthers, then the Falcons would win

419
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 3: the division.

420
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 2: So yeah, ridiculous. Yeah, that's that's the path for our

421
00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 2: Falcons future. We got a gift last week with Calvis future.

422
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 2: Hopefully that holds up all right.

423
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 3: For my third pick, the sixth overall the week eighteen

424
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 3: six pack, going with the Minnesota Vikings plus three and

425
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 3: a half at the Detroit Lions. And the big thing here,

426
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 3: Nick Mullens is starting again. It's this is gambling and

427
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 3: Nick Mullens. When you bet on Nick Mollens, it is

428
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 3: a gamble. But we had them a couple of weeks ago.

429
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 3: I think it was what plus three plus three and

430
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 3: a half I think at home. But this Lion team

431
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 3: they play early and then the Cowboys and the Eagles

432
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 3: play late. Now, if the Cowboys lose and the Eagles lose,

433
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,480
Speaker 3: then the Lions would be able to get into the

434
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: two seeds. But like you said, the Cowboys are two

435
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 3: touchdown favorites, Egles, I mean, they have a chance to lose.

436
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:57,120
Speaker 3: But you always have the possibility that the Lions take

437
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 3: it a little bit played a little bit safer here,

438
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 3: just because you know, they are definitely more likely than

439
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 3: not are going to stay in their number three seeds.

440
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 2: So yeah, they're like.

441
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so like you you know, and listen, Dan Campbell.

442
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 3: He's a risk taker, so maybe not. But also, you know,

443
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 3: now you're getting in this you know, uncharted territory right

444
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 3: where you know, never really been in a situation like

445
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 3: this where you have to kind of make that make

446
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 3: that choice, and you know anything, I mean, you know,

447
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 3: if a guy rolls his ankle early or something like that,

448
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 3: you know, does he kind of going to a shell,

449
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 3: does he pull guys or whatnot. Meanwhile, last time these

450
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 3: two teams played, yeah, the Lions won, the Lions covered,

451
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 3: but the Vikings were ridiculously efficient through the air. And

452
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 3: you've been talking about this, this Detroit pass defense, and

453
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 3: I think Moens is the kind of guy that could

454
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 3: take advantage of it. And he's not always going to

455
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 3: turn the ball over what was it four times? You know, yes,

456
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 3: he's turnover prone, but he threw for four one hundred

457
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 3: and eleven yards, two touchdowns, four picks. A lot of

458
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,880
Speaker 3: penalties didn't go their way, but the Vikings averaged over

459
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 3: seven yards play in that game. I believe didn't even

460
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 3: really need to run the football too with ty channelers,

461
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 3: so I think, you know, he only had eleven carriages

462
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 3: for seventeen yards. I think they could do better on

463
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 3: the ground this time around, be more balanced to kind

464
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:28,639
Speaker 3: of help him out. So but like the efficiency that

465
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 3: they had through the air, even with the turnovers, you know,

466
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 3: that was that.

467
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 1: Ended up being a.

468
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 3: Six point game that the Vikings could have easily won

469
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 3: or covered if you know, a penalty call goes their way.

470
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 1: Now, So give me the Vikings.

471
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 3: Plus three and a half at this Detroit Lion tea

472
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 3: and it's pretty much got their seating locked up. And

473
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 3: then you have also, you know, generally speaking, another one

474
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 3: of the spots you know, you kind of talked about

475
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 3: these teams went downe to play for tend to cover

476
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 3: and be very profitable at this time of year. Also,

477
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 3: just in general, no matter what time of year, underdogs

478
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 3: coming off big losses twenty points or more one hundred

479
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 3: and twenty four and eighty five against the spread over

480
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:24,360
Speaker 3: the last five seasons and change fifty nine percent.

481
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 1: Road dogs coming off a loss.

482
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 3: Of twenty or more fifty four and thirty four against

483
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 3: the spread over the last five and changed sixty one percent.

484
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 3: So this is a bounce back spot for the Vikings.

485
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 3: They were a lot more efficient than the Lions in

486
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 3: that last game. So just banking on Muwens.

487
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 1: You know, if I.

488
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 3: Could get two turnovers instead of four, and you know

489
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 3: everything I mentioned last time, picking this team still a pause.

490
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: You know, Gared Goff struggled.

491
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 3: Yes he's indoors, but he struggles against the blitz, and

492
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 3: so you could see you could win the turnover battle

493
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 3: this time around. If Mullens could just keep it together

494
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,120
Speaker 3: a little more, I think they'll run the ball, try

495
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 3: to be a little bit more balanced.

496
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 2: This time.

497
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 3: You still got Jefferson, You're still now Addison should be

498
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 3: healthy again. You lost Hockinson, but Jefferson Addison against this

499
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 3: terrible Lion defense, and you know, who knows how many

500
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 3: guys they're really going to play and for how long?

501
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 3: Being at their seed is locked up in that they

502
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 3: have struggled with injuries on the back end. So this

503
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 3: could be one where maybe the Lions go up. He scores,

504
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 3: and I don't think the Vikings will be dead. I

505
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 3: think probably time to get in live even more so

506
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 3: give me Minnesota plus three and a half at the trip.

507
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would look that way. I figured Campbell's gonna

508
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 2: say he's gonna start the starters, and I think that

509
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 2: he will. But that doesn't mean he's gonna keep them

510
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 2: in all game, and as honest as I can, I

511
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 2: don't I don't know. I really don't even know how

512
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 2: to respond to that. Yeah, I like this. I'm not

513
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 2: convinced that the Lions play everyone the entire game. For

514
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 2: what it's worth, Vikings fans, betters. In order for Minnesota

515
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 2: to get into the playoffs, win Packers loss, Seahawks loss,

516
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:11,239
Speaker 2: and either a Saints or Bucks loss.

517
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 3: Hey, you're saying there's a chance that's gonna do it.

518
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:21,719
Speaker 3: For our Week eighteen six pack, Stuck has the Titans

519
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 3: plus five and a half, the Giants plus four and

520
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 3: a half, and the Panthers plus four and a half.

521
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 3: I have the Texans minus one, the Ravens plus three

522
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 3: and a half, and the Vikings plus three and a half.

523
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: So let's see, you got either.

524
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 3: Levis or Tannehill, Tyrod and Bryce Young so.

525
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: THI god, yeah, best way, yep?

526
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 3: And I got Stroud probably Tyler Huntley and Nick Mowens.

527
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 3: I guess Stroud is like he takes the cake. But yeah,

528
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 3: pretty muggy.

529
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 2: Quarterbacks, that's the way it should be in Week eighteen.

530
00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean pretty like that most of the

531
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: year season.

532
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 3: But that's gonna do it for we eighteen six pack.

533
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 3: Now it's time for the coaches pep talk.

534
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:07,719
Speaker 4: You keep playing the way you're playing, We're gonna get

535
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 4: an ass feed again to night and it stopped right now.

536
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 3: For this week's coach is pep talk. We're going to

537
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 3: the wrestling documentary series The Dark Side of the Ring,

538
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 3: and we're gonna dedicate this one to referee Brad Allen

539
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 3: and his crew on behalf of Dan Campbell and the

540
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:33,959
Speaker 3: Detroit Lions, because I mean, ridiculous Prime Time gave everyone

541
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 3: all eyes on them and that's what happens. I mean,

542
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 3: that's just not ideal. Could have set off a ripple

543
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 3: effect here.

544
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 4: I will live to piss on his grave, even if

545
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 4: I'm an a walker. My wife already has instructions. She's

546
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 4: out of the wheel if she doesn't get me there.

547
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 4: If I'm not ambulatory, I'll find his grave and I

548
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 4: will piss on it and there will be a picture

549
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 4: of that hanging on my wall when.

550
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 1: I pass away.

551
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 4: And hate is a hell of a motivator.

552
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: For our favorite total of the week.

553
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 3: All Right, So I'm gonna go ugly, and by ugly,

554
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 3: I mean I'm gonna go with a game that most

555
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 3: people are probably not gonna want to bet the under on,

556
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 3: but especially with unders underdogs as well, should be a

557
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 3: little bit of uncomfortability in your bets. That's how you

558
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 3: know you're usually doing a good job. But I think

559
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 3: you mentioned that a few weeks ago. Stuck is a

560
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 3: great point. So I'm gonna go to Miami Buffalo under

561
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 3: fifty here. And there's a couple of reasons why Number

562
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 3: One Buffalo since firing Ken Dorsey a lot more run heavy.

563
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 3: Their rush rate over expected has just skyrocketed. I mean,

564
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 3: Josh Allen is you know, he's not really throwing the

565
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 3: football these days. So Buffalo Bills in a game where

566
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 3: it's all almost guaranteed to be, you know, win and

567
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 3: in don't win and you're out. Sean McDermott, coach, team

568
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 3: founder running Identity, I think they're going.

569
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: To lean into that here.

570
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 3: You know, even with the Dolphins likely missing Jaylen Waddle,

571
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 3: I still think, you know, the Bills aren't gonna want

572
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 3: to just you know, go up and down the field

573
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 3: super fast. And we've you know, put the Dolphins offense

574
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 3: back on the field with Tyreek Hill. But by the

575
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 3: same token, Tyreek Hill may not be right. You know,

576
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 3: he's kind of hailed off a little bit. Ja. Yeah

577
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 3: two was banged up, uh, you know jam O line

578
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 3: and and yes, there are injuries on the Dolphin defense.

579
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 3: But a lot with a lot of people don't realize

580
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 3: is this Dolphin defense has a lot of good players.

581
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, Xavi and Howard Bradley Chubb, those are at

582
00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 3: least you know, Poward used to be a stud out.

583
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 1: This year, he was not great.

584
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 3: He was ninety ninth out of one hundred and twenty

585
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 3: five qualifiers at PFF. Bradley Chubb is is better. You know,

586
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 3: he's playing really he's playing well this year. But the

587
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 3: Dolphins still have a solid secondary. You know, you got

588
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 3: Holland back there, Elliott playing well, Ramsey still there to

589
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 3: who has kind of rebounded a bit after a really

590
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 3: rocky start to the year. You know, the front seven

591
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 3: still solid. Everyone in their front seven actually grades out

592
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 3: with in the green at PFF, which means, you know,

593
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 3: you're well above average. So this isn't a terrible Dolphin defense.

594
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 3: You saw them, you know, holding the Cowboys and checked

595
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago. So I think the Bills

596
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 3: running the Dolphins defense yes, lost some pieces, but still

597
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 3: not terrible. He got their top three players on offense

598
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 3: potentially banged up into Hill and Wattle.

599
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: Wattle probably doesn't play.

600
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 3: And then you know this Bill's defense, which you know stuck,

601
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 3: You've talked about middle of the year, a lot of injuries,

602
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 3: kind of really didn't really wasn't clicking. Now it's kind

603
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 3: of come together really well. You know, they kind of

604
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 3: figured it out here. I think Rasull Douglas helped a lot.

605
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 3: You know, they needed a corner after Trey White went down.

606
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 3: But I also think the ball control is helping. And

607
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 3: this is just a different Bills team than I think,

608
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 3: you know, the ones we're kind of accustomed to. And

609
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: then you bring in we're going to Miami. It's gonna

610
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 3: be humid right now. The forecast calls for seventy seven

611
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 3: percent humidity. That's right on that cusp of where once

612
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 3: you start getting above seventy five percent, you tend to

613
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 3: see games go more towards the under two thirteen and

614
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 3: one twenty nine when you have eight mile an hour

615
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 3: wins and then the humidity seventy seven plus uh over

616
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 3: the last two decad decades sixty two percent to the

617
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 3: under fourteen and four this season. Not doesn't happen often. Uh,

618
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 3: And of course there's a primetime game. I think, so

619
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 3: these everyone wants to see a lot of points. But

620
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 3: these primetime games have been going under at a fifty

621
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 3: seven percent equip this year, sixty two percent since the

622
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 3: start of last year. And uh, if you go all

623
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 3: the way back over the last two decades, when you

624
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 3: have a primetime total forty nine or higher, uh, one

625
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 3: oh nine, seventy nine to fifty eight percent uh to

626
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 3: the under seven and one to the under this season.

627
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 3: So I think you're going to see some longer drives

628
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 3: from the Bills, some ball control, and I think you

629
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 3: know both defense is probably a little bit of underrated

630
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 3: Dolphins coming off just a massive uh you know performance

631
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 3: giving up to the Ravens usually like to kind of

632
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 3: back teams in that spot to rebound. You know, these

633
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 3: are professionals. These guys are gonna do what.

634
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 1: They have to do.

635
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 3: And I think the Dolphins also probably want to run

636
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 3: the ball just because you know, you probably get moster back.

637
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 1: So you have your two headed monster again.

638
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 3: You have you don't want safe thing you could say

639
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 3: for the Bills, you can say for the Dolphins, Like,

640
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 3: you don't want their offense just on the field all day.

641
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 3: You don't want, you know, Tua having to drop back

642
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 3: forty times necessarily with no wado and you know, a

643
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 3: sore shoulder. So and Buffalo could could be a little

644
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:22,799
Speaker 3: tight year, you know, winning get in.

645
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 1: They've been pretty.

646
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 3: Dominant these last couple of years, so this is a

647
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 3: spot where maybe you see a little tightness from them

648
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 3: as well.

649
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: So give me the under fifty in Bills Dolphins.

650
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 2: I think the line is about right now when you

651
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 2: adjust for the injuries from my I mean, I don't

652
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 2: mind the under. Buffalo will clinch if the Ravens or

653
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 2: Titans win before this game, but regardless, it's going to

654
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 2: be for the division and the two seed, and instead

655
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 2: of likely going to Kansas City, you'd likely you know,

656
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 2: host a team from the AFC South and then get

657
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 2: another home game, massive game, which means I think both

658
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 2: teams might be a little tight early on, regardless of

659
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 2: what happens early on in the weekend. It could be

660
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,319
Speaker 2: even more so for the Bills if the Steelers and

661
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 2: Jaguars get it done, then it's when the division or

662
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 2: go home. I think the under is the only look

663
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 2: there for my favorite total. I'm gonna go with the

664
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 2: let's go Bengals Browns under thirty seven. Yeah yeah, there's

665
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 2: thirty eight out there. Chop around every Numbers are always important.

666
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:30,800
Speaker 2: They always want to get the best number by like

667
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: a twenty one to seventeen or something. This the Browns

668
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 2: are gonna set everybody, everyone that matters. Can't sit everyone,

669
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,720
Speaker 2: as we talked about earlier. But it's gonna be like PJ. Walker,

670
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 2: You're not gonna get Flacco, You're not gonna have Amari Cooper.

671
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 2: You know you're not gonna have some of the offensive.

672
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 2: They've dealt with a ton of injuries too, so this

673
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 2: is and this game means nothing to the Browns. They

674
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 2: are locked into the five. They will go to the

675
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 2: AFC South champion, whether that be the Texans, Colts, or Jaguars.

676
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 2: They've had so many injuries, so anyone who matters, anyone

677
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:02,800
Speaker 2: who's been dealing with an injury is not going to

678
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 2: play in this game. And they also said you can't

679
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 2: sit everyone. They don't want to have any more injuries.

680
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 2: The Browns have one objective this week, get in and

681
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 2: get the fuck out without any injuries. That's it. Run

682
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 2: the clock. He's going to run the ball, hand it off,

683
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 2: bleed the clock, take thirty seconds. No injuries. This game

684
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 2: means nothing. Get out of dodge full strength piece. We're

685
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 2: onto the playoffs. It's in the cold, meaningless. Bengals were

686
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 2: eliminated last week. They could come out completely flat. This

687
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 2: could be like sixteen to three Bengals win.

688
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, the only thing you have to worry about here

689
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 3: is like the turnovers both sides. I would say Driscoll

690
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 3: starting for the Browns. I feel like that's a turnover

691
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 3: waiting happened in Browning obviously. But yeah, there shouldn't be

692
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 3: shouldn't be too much offense from the Browns now that

693
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 3: you get Flacco out of there and his just you know,

694
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,839
Speaker 3: chucking duck offense where he's just going along all the time.

695
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 1: Jeff Driscoll is completely different kind of quarterback.

696
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 2: And who who's gonna be thrown to? James Proshay slants,

697
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 2: Pierre Strong dives.

698
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 3: All right, well under fifty Bills Dolphins for me, under

699
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 3: thirty seven and a half Bengals, Browns for you. You know,

700
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 3: divisional game is gonna go under at a higher clip too.

701
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 3: We should mention but now it's time for a favorite

702
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 3: teaser of Luke.

703
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers do.

704
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 2: Change?

705
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 1: Don't tease me please? All right, we're both eleven and

706
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 1: six this year.

707
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 2: On teasers, we're gonna go Denver up over a touchdown

708
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 2: in uh. This game could end up deciding the last

709
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 2: as I talked about our the last AFC wild card spot.

710
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 2: You're gonna have O'Connell start for the Raiders again, and

711
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 2: then you're gonna stid them who last year got benched

712
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 2: in the final two games or sorry, he's started Raiders

713
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 2: after Derrek Carr got benched for contract related stuff, and

714
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,439
Speaker 2: now he's on another IFC West team started the final

715
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 2: two games after Russell Wilson got benched for contract stuff.

716
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 2: He's going back to Vegas. But low total getting over.

717
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 2: There's nothing more to this meaningless game. I don't think

718
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,720
Speaker 2: either team's gonna give it margin. And then I noticed

719
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 2: a little bit of a higher total. But I'm gonna

720
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 2: go with Cardinals to eight and a half. Seahawks are

721
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 2: reeling and this is the third straight year that they've

722
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 2: just collapsed down the stretch. I Don'm not sure what's

723
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 2: going on.

724
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 3: They are were they ever good? I don't think you

725
00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 3: have to be good to collapse. I feel like they

726
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 3: were super mid this whole.

727
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I mean last year they felt folded down

728
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 2: the stretch, even though their wins were fraudulent. This year

729
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 2: they're two and five over their past seven games. Miraculous

730
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 2: final minute touchdown to beat the Eagles, Miraculous final minute

731
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 2: touch on the beat Titans. That's it. Those are the

732
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 2: two wins of the past seventies. All the pressure on Seattle.

733
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 2: I would have bet Arizona would have been one of

734
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 2: my picks and the six pack of this didn't get

735
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 2: hit and I could get over a field goal. This

736
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 2: number didn't come down, But happy to take them up

737
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 2: over eight. So I'm gonna go with the Cardinals and

738
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 2: the Broncos.

739
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 3: I'm actually going with the Jets and my teaser. Yeah,

740
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 3: plus seven and a half at the Patriots. It's gonna

741
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 3: be weather in this game. The total is thirty and

742
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 3: a half, so this is again just to play on

743
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:30,800
Speaker 3: the total. I know the Jets haven't beat the Patriots

744
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 3: in quite some time.

745
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, would you rather have you're a Patriots fan, do

746
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 2: you want the second overall pick or to beat the

747
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 2: Jets and keep the streak alive for sixteenth straight time.

748
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's just a low total game.

749
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 3: Two good defenses, two offenses that are going to struggle.

750
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 3: I can't pass up eight in a tote with a

751
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 3: total of thirty. And I'm going with the Broncos as well.

752
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 3: You're already wait it out, so I won't belabor the

753
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 3: point there. Denver plus eight and a half, Jets plus

754
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,879
Speaker 3: eight for me, Denver plus eight and a half, Cardinals FORUS, eight.

755
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 1: And a half for you.

756
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:06,320
Speaker 3: And now it's time for our Underdog money line parlay.

757
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 3: But just as a reminder, the Action Network podcast is

758
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:12,720
Speaker 3: presented by bet MGM, and you could use bonus code

759
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 3: Action Actiown when signing up to get up to fifteen

760
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:21,399
Speaker 3: hundred dollars pay back in bonus bets if your first

761
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 3: bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

762
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 3: at New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

763
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one year older.

764
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 3: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler All right. Underdog

765
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 3: money Line.

766
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: Parlay, turning good weekends into great weekends.

767
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:53,280
Speaker 3: It's time for the money line parlay. You've been carrying

768
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 3: us in this one. You got seven, I got three.

769
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 3: Where are you going this week?

770
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 2: Let's go Atlanta for our future. Let's go Carolina. Let's

771
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 2: go Atlanta. But these are two really inconsistent teams. You

772
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 2: never know, we're going to get a lot of uncertainty.

773
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 2: It's Car and Allen as a favorite. For what it's worth,

774
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 2: Car twenty thirty seven and two against the spread as

775
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 2: a favorite thirty five percent, Allen seven sixteen and one

776
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 2: thirty percent. Car is a favorite of at least a

777
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 2: field goal ten twenty six and two against the spread.

778
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 2: But Car up and down season. He could just have

779
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 2: a disastrous game where he can't complete it fast. The

780
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 2: Saints run defense is really regressed hard. That should play

781
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 2: into Atlanta's hands. New Orleans might be just a little

782
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 2: tighter team, like they're closer to the playoff, you know,

783
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,239
Speaker 2: getting in. They're at home, so I think Atlanta might

784
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 2: be able to play a little looser. But regardless, this

785
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:47,000
Speaker 2: is jeesus, just two inconsistent teams, divisional game. Happy to

786
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 2: take a shot on the Underdell price.

787
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it. I was thinking of going Atlanta.

788
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 1: May still bet them.

789
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 3: You know, they're kind of hovering at that plus three,

790
00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 3: but the juice is only it's even money. So if

791
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 3: I can get to three and a half, you know,

792
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 3: I don't think that the Saints team is gonna win

793
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 3: by margin again in another divisional game. For my moneyline dog,

794
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 3: it was gonna go Kansas City. But this is a

795
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 3: meaningless game. I just see the possibility of the Eagles.

796
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 3: You know, we're already kind of hearing the whispers of

797
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 3: the Eagles potentially resting starters. You know, the Cowboys two

798
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 3: touchdown favorites, so you could be scoreboy watching them pull guys.

799
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:30,319
Speaker 3: Giants are playing well, playing hard. I'm sure they'd love

800
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 3: to keep the Eagles from the division titlesach it's in

801
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 3: New Jersey, could have weather, which tends to be an

802
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 3: equalizer anyway. Tyrod's given the Giants the best quarterback play

803
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 3: they've had all year.

804
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:47,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go g ben Man.

805
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 3: So g Men are plus two hundred at bet MGM.

806
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 3: Falcons are plus one forty five at BETMGM. If you

807
00:43:56,920 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 3: parlay those together, let's see plus six thirty five. So

808
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,879
Speaker 3: some pretty juicy odds here, but always remember you don't

809
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 3: have to parlay. Do bet them singularly as well. I

810
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 3: always recommend never just only parlay something unless the whole

811
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 3: purpose of it is, like you know, it's just two

812
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 3: huge money lines and you're just trying to get a

813
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,400
Speaker 3: better number. But otherwise, especially when you have you know,

814
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,240
Speaker 3: plus money like this, I always recommend playing the bets

815
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:26,320
Speaker 3: individually as well, because you just making it harder on yourself,

816
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 3: and that's what the that's how the books profit when

817
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 3: when you have to be perfect. So now it's time

818
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:35,280
Speaker 3: for the best of the rest. Games we haven't covered

819
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 3: in any other segment, but are still, as they say,

820
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,760
Speaker 3: meaningful to some That's.

821
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 4: Gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful to

822
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 4: some of.

823
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 1: You, and you know what I mean.

824
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 3: So we got the Cowboys going to Washington to take

825
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 3: on the Commanders. Cowboys are laying thirteen on the road.

826
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 3: I think this line is inflated, stuck.

827
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 1: I mean, a little bit different situation.

828
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 3: But but you talked about this one happy hour this

829
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:07,439
Speaker 3: You had this scenario last year where the Cowboys were

830
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 3: playing they had you know, there are stakes involved, and

831
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 3: the Cowboys leigh an egg dak went fourteen to thirty seven.

832
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 3: The Cowboys barely you know, they don't they can't run

833
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 3: the ball at all, and they end up dropping one

834
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 3: to Washington in the season finale by a score of

835
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 3: twenty six to six. But that one, the Cowboys were

836
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 3: one touchdown favorites. Now they're two touchdown favorites. I feel

837
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:34,319
Speaker 3: like this is a little high. What do you think?

838
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's gonna be like cold outdoors Dallas

839
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 2: on the road. I mean, they're just a different team

840
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 2: this year. And this is the same price that they

841
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 2: were lying on Thanksgiving at home. I guess Washington the

842
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,680
Speaker 2: same line. And then you know, this is the Dallas

843
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 2: team that went on the road this year. They let's

844
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:59,239
Speaker 2: say they scored twenty at the Dolphins, ten at the Bills.

845
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 1: You're averaging about twenty points per game on the road.

846
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 1: I remember that running points. Yeah, that line game.

847
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 2: Last Chargers and they have the you know, the game

848
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,240
Speaker 2: against the Panthers with some defensive scores, the game against

849
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 2: the Giants with all those defensive scores too. So it's

850
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 2: just not the same team. But it's you know that

851
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 2: Hal through like three ll yards in that Dallas game.

852
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 2: But they still lost by thirty five. The Washington defense

853
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:26,320
Speaker 2: is so bad, but I agree the line is inflated.

854
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,359
Speaker 2: I wish it was Bursett starting fall. Seems like he's

855
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 2: lost and he's regressed and he's just lost in the

856
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 2: sauce right now, and they just confirmed he's going to start,

857
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 2: not for set, but yeah, the line's inflated. It's one

858
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:40,320
Speaker 2: of those things that, hey, Dallas needs a win to

859
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 2: win the division, Washington's out of it, and Washington's just

860
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 2: been getting clobbered by everybody lately. So I've been Washington.

861
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 2: But I have no interest in betting this team right now.

862
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 2: But if it gets the fourteen, I'll probably throw some

863
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 2: small change on it.

864
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:58,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this is Washington super Bowl. I mean

865
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:01,240
Speaker 3: it's probably Ron riveraswast game. Could be Sam Howe's last

866
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 3: start or at least, you know, last time to prove himself, so.

867
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 1: They'll be loose Cowboys. You know they're they're looking.

868
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 3: For when's the last time the Cowboys won a division title?

869
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,240
Speaker 2: By the way, my think my streak is still alive

870
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:17,480
Speaker 2: if the Cowboys win, no repeat nfcas winner. That's why

871
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 2: the Cars won last week. We should have known.

872
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, Oh, man, that would have been a money

873
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 3: line dog of money line dogs.

874
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: Let's see. Oh so yeah, okay, they won it in

875
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 1: twenty one. Yeah, that's right, that's right. Okay, so yeah,

876
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 1: they covers.

877
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 3: They tend to win a division every like other two

878
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:37,319
Speaker 3: three years to speed.

879
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 2: The nineteenth straight season without a repeat winner in.

880
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 1: The nfcas absolutely nuts.

881
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 2: Yeah.

882
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 3: I should have seen it coming with the egos, Like

883
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 3: once they started ten to one, it was it was over.

884
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 3: It was like, all right, you give us, you give

885
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 3: it the scriptwriters no leeway, all right. And I should mention,

886
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 3: you know, because gam was all about managing risk.

887
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 1: And we did talk about how this line is inflated.

888
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 3: But I should also mention, by the same token, the

889
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 3: Cowboys have been profitable covering these kind of lines. DAK

890
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,800
Speaker 3: versus a sub five hundred team thirty and thirteen against

891
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:16,760
Speaker 3: the spread, seventy percent, five and one against the spread

892
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 3: this season. Uh, the Cowboys off and against the spread loss,

893
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:26,920
Speaker 3: which you know they didn't cover against the Lions last week,

894
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 3: twelve and four against the spread seventy five percent over

895
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 3: the past three seasons, and DAK as a favorite by

896
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:39,840
Speaker 3: six points or more thirty and twelve seventy one percent.

897
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 3: So that's that's kind of the other side of why

898
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 3: we're not just running out to bet the Commanders's home dogs,

899
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:50,280
Speaker 3: even though you know the line is inflated, is because

900
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 3: the Cowboys have a way.

901
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 2: Of again, yeah, and against the fear teams, they get a

902
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 2: lead and then the pass rush takes over cause mistakes

903
00:48:57,360 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 2: and you're you know, you're playing a quarterback takes too

904
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 2: many sacks, mate will make mistakes, doesn't seem to be

905
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 2: seeing the field again. So this this game, you know,

906
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:06,840
Speaker 2: one of the reasons I'm not really in love with

907
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 2: betting it is it's just going to come down in

908
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:12,280
Speaker 2: the first quarter, like does Dallas learn from last year's trip.

909
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 2: Do they come out tight or do they come out

910
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:20,480
Speaker 2: loose focused get a lead, because if they do, then

911
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 2: Washington can't really run the ball. You're going to put

912
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 2: the bone house hands. Cowboys can unleash the pass rush

913
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 2: and then it could slide. But it Dallas comes out tight,

914
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:35,240
Speaker 2: you know, nervous, Washington's fired up for their Super Bowl.

915
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 2: You know, Washington goes up seven, nothing puts the pressure

916
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:45,840
Speaker 2: even more on Dallas. Then you know Washington probably covers

917
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,320
Speaker 2: with ease. So so much of this is going to

918
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:49,439
Speaker 2: depend on early in the game.

919
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean with the Cowboys.

920
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:55,840
Speaker 3: The Cowboys are so opportunistic too, with the turnovers, and

921
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:58,280
Speaker 3: this is you know, this washingteam not really the idea

922
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 3: to you with you know, I don't take a what

923
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 3: these sacks, you know, sacks are some of the most likely,

924
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 3: you know, the most likely way to fumble.

925
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 1: Tends to be a sack. So not ideal.

926
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, if it gets to I guess the fourteen

927
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:14,319
Speaker 3: or even better fourteen and a half, it's it's hard

928
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:17,839
Speaker 3: to it's hard to say no. Then all right, Next up,

929
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 3: we got the Bears at the Packers, and the Packers

930
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 3: are three point favorites. The total is forty four. Nice,

931
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 3: nice clean numbers. Always like that. Don't really see a

932
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 3: ton of value personally either way, I do. My gut

933
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 3: tells me the Packers find a way here. You know,

934
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 3: the Bears, they've been a lot better defensively, especially I

935
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:43,839
Speaker 3: think justin fields.

936
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 1: You know, he's kind of doing what he has to do.

937
00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 3: He's making defenses pay when when they you know, single

938
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:54,720
Speaker 3: cover Dj Moore and he's making defenses pay with his legs.

939
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,440
Speaker 3: And this Packer defense has been terrible, so that's the

940
00:50:57,440 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 3: way it could go wrong. But Jordan Love has also

941
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 3: been great, and I think the Bears have kind of

942
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,280
Speaker 3: you know, they've been playing some some pretty weak competition.

943
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 3: So no no real value here on this one for me,

944
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:10,360
Speaker 3: But what do you think?

945
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna I thought I was gonna be

946
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 2: potentially betting the Bears, but you know, Packers winning in

947
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:22,840
Speaker 2: Bears are eliminated, and the Packers can either get the

948
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:24,440
Speaker 2: seven seed with the Rams win or the six seat

949
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:27,439
Speaker 2: with the Rams loss that they win. For what it's worth,

950
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 2: if they do lose, they could still get in, but

951
00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:31,760
Speaker 2: they would need losses a by the Seahawks of Vikings,

952
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 2: neither the Saints or Bucks, so all the pressures on

953
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 2: Green Bay. Here, Chicago can come in loose. They're playing well,

954
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 2: they won four or five and they you know, they

955
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 2: can eliminate their essentially eliminate their hated division rival, who's

956
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 2: won twenty four of the past twenty seven head to

957
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 2: head meetings, including nine in a row. But the Bears

958
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:53,759
Speaker 2: have been playing well, they're kind of at the top

959
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:55,279
Speaker 2: of their market. So yeah, I think this is the

960
00:51:55,360 --> 00:52:00,759
Speaker 2: right number. And you have the the have only won

961
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 2: two games away from home all seasons. They haven't been

962
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 2: a great routine to beat the Commanders and then the

963
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 2: Vikings with Josh Dobbs. They have the six or seven

964
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 2: takeaways in those two games. Packers should get Jire Alexander back,

965
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:13,280
Speaker 2: but they have They still have injuries. A wide receiver,

966
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:15,439
Speaker 2: I know, Bow Milton, like Bow Melton, was their first

967
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 2: receiver to go to over one hundred yards this year,

968
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 2: which is pretty crazy.

969
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 1: It has in.

970
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 2: Phase Love Love is playing really well. Highest graded passers

971
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 2: since Weak twelve. Since November first, twenty three point fifty

972
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:29,879
Speaker 2: he's un for twent fifty yards, nineteen touchdowns, three interceptions,

973
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 2: sixty seven percent compoliction percentage, one hundred and six quarterback rating.

974
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 2: Even with the injuries, you know, he's dealt with it.

975
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:39,719
Speaker 2: Running back, wide receiver. Yeah, And the Packers d has

976
00:52:39,719 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 2: been bad. That so the Bears could win this game

977
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 2: in a shootout if you remove two games. The Packers

978
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 2: played Brett Rippin and the Rams, and then they played

979
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 2: Jaron Hall and the Likes. You remove those two games.

980
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 2: Over the past ten weeks, statistically, Green Bays argued in

981
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 2: the worst defense in the NFL, and one of those

982
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 2: reasons six straight the Packers games are going over the

983
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:04,439
Speaker 2: total love trending up. Yeah, so I think designs fare. Yeah,

984
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 2: I think the Packers probably went by three bad A guess.

985
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:09,880
Speaker 3: Next up, we got the Rams at the Niners, and

986
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 3: I'm kind of pissed that this game comes in week

987
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:17,400
Speaker 3: eighteen because it robs us of an opportunity to just

988
00:53:17,480 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 3: hammer the Niners. Like now you're you're dealing with Sam

989
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:24,240
Speaker 3: Darnold against Carson Wentz, so it's essentially you know which

990
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 3: team is gonna rest more guys. Sounds almost like the

991
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:31,320
Speaker 3: Rams are because I know, not only did they announced

992
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 3: Wentz as the starter, but they signed Tyra Johnson wide

993
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:40,560
Speaker 3: receiver Tyra Johnson to the active roster. Now, the Rams

994
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:43,800
Speaker 3: already have six wide receivers that they have active every week,

995
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 3: so the fact that they're signing a seventh to the

996
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 3: active roster tells you that they're not really planning to

997
00:53:50,080 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 3: play you know, any of their their guys and the

998
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:55,880
Speaker 3: wide receivers. Obviously, the strength of their their offense, I

999
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 3: doubt we'll see Kyron Williams and then not you know,

1000
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:02,840
Speaker 3: Demo Samuel's He's gonna play uh Shanahan right now at

1001
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:05,239
Speaker 3: least he's saying, the only guy for sure is gonna

1002
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:08,360
Speaker 3: rest is uh party. And then McCaffrey's ruled out. So

1003
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 3: it's possiwhere you do get some some some some Niner

1004
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:16,040
Speaker 3: studs in there. I doubt we see Trent Williams. But

1005
00:54:16,040 --> 00:54:18,240
Speaker 3: the line is minus fours. I can't really do anything

1006
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 3: with that.

1007
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 1: But what do you think?

1008
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, who knows. It's like a preseason game,

1009
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 2: like debus that they're gonna play a bit, so like,

1010
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 2: what does that mean? They played a couple of series,

1011
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:31,880
Speaker 2: so I don't know. McVeigh has a history of always

1012
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:35,279
Speaker 2: resting guys. Really interesting that, like they're almost they're close

1013
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 2: to guaranteed getting the six with a win and going

1014
00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:40,879
Speaker 2: to Detroit, but if they lose and the Packers win,

1015
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:43,040
Speaker 2: then they likely go to Dallas.

1016
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, not ideal, not ideal for them. They got tasted

1017
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:47,240
Speaker 1: by Dallas.

1018
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm surprised, but I guess he's McVeigh in the

1019
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 2: past has always valued health over everything else in these spots.

1020
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 2: I do so, Yeah, I have no idea in this game.

1021
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:00,920
Speaker 2: It's Wentz versus Dar. I don't know when how long

1022
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:02,239
Speaker 2: the stars are gonna play. It's gonna be like a

1023
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:02,879
Speaker 2: preseason game.

1024
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 3: So no that easy pass, thought about this total, this

1025
00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:08,120
Speaker 3: under in this game. But uh, you know Wentz hasn't

1026
00:55:08,120 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 3: played in a while, he's kind of showing he gets

1027
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 3: another opportunity to audition. And then Darnold's kind of the

1028
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 3: same same deal, so they might just kind of chuck

1029
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 3: it all around. Two very good offensive schemers. So uh,

1030
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:22,280
Speaker 3: you know I'm gonna.

1031
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:24,400
Speaker 2: Shock mistakes to turnovers.

1032
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:28,040
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah uh. And then finally we got the Chiefs

1033
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:31,760
Speaker 3: at the Chargers. Chargers favored by three and a half.

1034
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:35,399
Speaker 3: The total is thirty five, and this game just gives

1035
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:38,760
Speaker 3: me a headache chy to adjust. I mean the charge

1036
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 3: just adjusting for everything that's changed with the Chargers from

1037
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:45,239
Speaker 3: you know, their full season numbers is hard enough.

1038
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 1: And then you got a factor in, you know, who

1039
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 1: are the Chiefs resting? You know how?

1040
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 3: You know it's Kelsey gonna just go for his you

1041
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:53,720
Speaker 3: know thousand yards?

1042
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 1: You know how who's playing? How like it?

1043
00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 3: It's just it's it's really tough to handicap this, and

1044
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:04,440
Speaker 3: I feel like thirty five is is kind of pushing it.

1045
00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 3: You know, with Gabbard stick who could make mistakes, but

1046
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:10,360
Speaker 3: who could also just kind of be free thrown around.

1047
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:13,680
Speaker 3: You know, maybe you even get like a receiver or

1048
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 3: two back for the Chargers Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer one

1049
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:21,760
Speaker 3: of those guys. Chiefs obviously don't have receivers, but Chiefs

1050
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 3: tend to score in preseason, so I don't know. This

1051
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 3: total seems a bit low to me, but it looks

1052
00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 3: like we've tracked some sharp action on the unders and

1053
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:30,960
Speaker 3: maybe that's why. But any thoughts on this on this

1054
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 3: total and even the spread. You know, now you're getting

1055
00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:35,879
Speaker 3: three in the hook with Eastern stick, so easton stick

1056
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 3: is favored by three in the hook.

1057
00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 1: Give Smith against Andy Reid.

1058
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:42,400
Speaker 2: I'm not famous game. I'm waiting for the I'm waiting

1059
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:45,239
Speaker 2: for the Kelsey prop. That's it. Blake Gabert has thrown

1060
00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:46,759
Speaker 2: five pass this year as the started the game. Since

1061
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:49,240
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, he's thirteen and thirty five as a starter.

1062
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 2: Reed usually sits everyone in these cases, everyone that matters.

1063
00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 2: You know, it might get Kelsey's incentive, but he's already

1064
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 2: named Gabert the starter. Chris Jones. Chris Jones has like

1065
00:56:59,480 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 2: a sack in cent of thing. He gets like a

1066
00:57:01,840 --> 00:57:03,880
Speaker 2: million and a half if he gets a Sack. I

1067
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:05,919
Speaker 2: think he has to get clear ten. But he also

1068
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 2: came out and said I could use the rest. I'm

1069
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:10,720
Speaker 2: dinged up, and he's already had a lot of money.

1070
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 2: So I don't know, because that's the key to it

1071
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:14,920
Speaker 2: to me, is like how who ends up sitting on

1072
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 2: the Chiefs defense so you already can run on them,

1073
00:57:17,360 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 2: but the Chargers can't run it. So like did they

1074
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:22,480
Speaker 2: sit enough guys where the Chargers can actually run it

1075
00:57:22,880 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 2: and then move the ball? I don't know that. I

1076
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:26,920
Speaker 2: think that's the key to the game. Chiefs won't care

1077
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:31,840
Speaker 2: here this this happened twenty one Chiefs Week seventeen. Oh

1078
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 2: granted this was a week eighteen. This was against Herbert.

1079
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:37,840
Speaker 2: They lost, you know, thirty eight twenty one at home

1080
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 2: against Herbert. Yeah, I think right, So maybe, I mean,

1081
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:45,919
Speaker 2: I guess I had a better I would take the hook,

1082
00:57:46,480 --> 00:57:49,040
Speaker 2: but a hard game to project. So I think that

1083
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:53,240
Speaker 2: the Charters will care. But it's easton stick and a

1084
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:55,840
Speaker 2: Tina can't run it. I would make the line three,

1085
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 2: but not Betty.

1086
00:57:57,320 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 1: All Right.

1087
00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 3: That is going to wrap it up for our Week

1088
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 3: eighteen Action Network podcast.

1089
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:04,000
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.

1090
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 3: We'll be back every Thursday throughout the NFL playoffs, so

1091
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:09,800
Speaker 3: don't worry. And of course you can hear more of

1092
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:12,600
Speaker 3: me with my guy Sean Kerner talking Fantasy dfs all

1093
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:15,080
Speaker 3: that good stuff on the Fantasy Flex podcast. And we

1094
00:58:15,120 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 3: also have our Player Projections episode out on this channel.

1095
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:21,440
Speaker 3: And now that college football is about to wrap up,

1096
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 3: you can hear Stuck talking college hoops over on the

1097
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 3: Big Bets on Campus pod every Monday and Friday.

1098
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:27,840
Speaker 1: Don't forget that.

1099
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 2: Title previous too, though we'll be out on Friday. I

1100
00:58:31,880 --> 00:58:33,720
Speaker 2: kind of like the under, but I'm still breaking.

1101
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:37,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I got a lot of people that a

1102
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:41,760
Speaker 3: lot of my personal friends that really have been enjoying

1103
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 3: your college picks. Shout out to you for that. And

1104
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:47,920
Speaker 3: you can find Stuck on Twitter at Stucky too. I'm

1105
00:58:47,960 --> 00:58:49,760
Speaker 3: attress Raybon and we're at those same handles on the

1106
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:53,400
Speaker 3: free award winning Action Network app where you can track

1107
00:58:53,440 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 3: your own bets, you can follow ours, and just a

1108
00:58:56,640 --> 00:58:58,080
Speaker 3: great resource for betters.

1109
00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:01,440
Speaker 1: But until next time, let's get the which money let go.

1110
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1111
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:15,640
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1112
00:59:15,680 --> 00:59:18,480
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler