1
00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:06,920
Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

2
00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:10,040
Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus Mobile Act and on your radio.

3
00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:14,480
Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash Sharm, Bloomberg World Headquarters.

4
00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:18,000
Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Pellett. The neztack Compositive Index trading above its

5
00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:20,360
Speaker 1: record close for the first time of a year, putting

6
00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:23,079
Speaker 1: it on the verge of joining the SMP five hundred

7
00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:27,080
Speaker 1: at a record SMP up sixteen one, a gain of

8
00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,319
Speaker 1: eight tens of one percent, NAZ Stack up fifty seven

9
00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,680
Speaker 1: points to fifty two twenty three, a gain there of

10
00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,080
Speaker 1: one point one percent. Down, Industrial surging a hundred and

11
00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,920
Speaker 1: sixty six points up nine tenths of one percent to

12
00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,320
Speaker 1: eighteen thousand, five hundred eleven. The ten You're down twenty

13
00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:45,720
Speaker 1: three thirty seconds, the yield one point five seven percent,

14
00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:48,960
Speaker 1: Gold down twenty four dollars, the ounce the thirteen thirty

15
00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,800
Speaker 1: eight to drop there of one point eight percent, and

16
00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:54,960
Speaker 1: crude Oil West Texas Intermediate CREWE down thirty one cents

17
00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,360
Speaker 1: of L forty one sixty two right now on w

18
00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:00,920
Speaker 1: t I. That's the drop of seven tens of one percent.

19
00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:05,760
Speaker 1: I'm Charlie Pellett, and that's a Bloomberg Business Flash. You're

20
00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:10,200
Speaker 1: listening to Taking Stock with Kathleen pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio.

21
00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:15,040
Speaker 1: Stocks are moving higher today, bonds are moving lower. For example,

22
00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,560
Speaker 1: take a look at the thirty year down more than

23
00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,560
Speaker 1: one full point to yield on the thirty year two

24
00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,360
Speaker 1: point three one percent. The tenuere also lower today, the

25
00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,920
Speaker 1: yield higher one point five seven percent. Go ahead and

26
00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,840
Speaker 1: blame or credit the payrolls report payrolls climbing two hundred

27
00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,119
Speaker 1: and fifty five thousand last month. Joining us to tell

28
00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:39,400
Speaker 1: us more, Chris Lew, Deputy Secretary u S Department of Labor,

29
00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,240
Speaker 1: joining us from Washington, d C, home to Bloomberg and

30
00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:46,399
Speaker 1: one oh five point seven h D two. Chris Lew,

31
00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,160
Speaker 1: thank you very much for being with us. Give us

32
00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,800
Speaker 1: your first analysis of today's jobs report. This is an

33
00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:57,360
Speaker 1: incredibly strong report that showed broad based growth in virtually

34
00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,960
Speaker 1: every single sector. As you said, the top line of

35
00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:04,880
Speaker 1: two thousand jobs created this month, seventy straight months of

36
00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,160
Speaker 1: job growth. That's the longest streak in history. Um the

37
00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,360
Speaker 1: four point nine percent unemployment. A couple of things of

38
00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,399
Speaker 1: note of wage growth was two point six percent over

39
00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,400
Speaker 1: the year. That's the highest we've seen since the recovery.

40
00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 1: That was certainly good news. UM. So again, as I

41
00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,600
Speaker 1: said across the board, this was a great report. We

42
00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:28,280
Speaker 1: also had average hourly average weekly hours worked rising by

43
00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:32,120
Speaker 1: one tenth of one hour. Correct me if I'm wrong,

44
00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,440
Speaker 1: but it looks like that means with a hundred twenty

45
00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:40,000
Speaker 1: two million private sector workers every week got an additional

46
00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,079
Speaker 1: one thousand, three hundred nineties six years worked. I mean

47
00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,120
Speaker 1: that adds up to a lot of minutes. You know,

48
00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:46,640
Speaker 1: it adds up to a lot of minuts. I'll trust

49
00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:48,080
Speaker 1: you on the math of that one. But I would

50
00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,760
Speaker 1: say not only that figure, but also the increase in

51
00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:56,120
Speaker 1: temporary help hiring. UM, those are both leading indicators. That

52
00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,239
Speaker 1: suggests we're trying to bring on more people in a

53
00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,079
Speaker 1: part time We're trying to everyone is working a little

54
00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:04,720
Speaker 1: bit long. Um. That votes well for future hiring. Partific

55
00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,839
Speaker 1: bodes well for future hiring. Let's just take a look

56
00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:11,160
Speaker 1: at revisions. Do we expect a major revision in this

57
00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,200
Speaker 1: number because previous jobs report have been revised. For example,

58
00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,880
Speaker 1: the May figure was revised I believe down by about

59
00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,800
Speaker 1: fourteen thousands to just four thousand. Yeah, we've um you

60
00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,600
Speaker 1: know that that that is what happens when you are

61
00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:28,560
Speaker 1: surveying an economy of the size that we have in

62
00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:31,320
Speaker 1: the United States, and so every month you get some revisions,

63
00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 1: but you know, buy and large, we're pretty close. And

64
00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,280
Speaker 1: I think what we tend to look at more is

65
00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,760
Speaker 1: the trends. And if you look at over the UH

66
00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:41,960
Speaker 1: the year, we've created jobs at a hundred eight six

67
00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,760
Speaker 1: thousand pace, which is very good. Why aren't we seeing

68
00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,240
Speaker 1: bigger gains in g d P. I mean, the jobs

69
00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:53,960
Speaker 1: numbers sound incredible. We're adding more and more people, um,

70
00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,320
Speaker 1: you know, every month to the labor force. They're making

71
00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:02,880
Speaker 1: more and more money, and yet um growth is disappointing. Well,

72
00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:04,720
Speaker 1: you know, look, I mean, as you know, GDP numbers

73
00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,360
Speaker 1: get revised as well. And it's important to take a

74
00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,280
Speaker 1: look at all of these economic indicators together, not only

75
00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:14,120
Speaker 1: today's very strong jobs numbers the weaker GDP numbers, but

76
00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:18,279
Speaker 1: also the consumer consience numbers, the consumer spending numbers, the

77
00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,920
Speaker 1: auto sales which are at a record base. And when

78
00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:22,800
Speaker 1: you take a look at all of that, the picture

79
00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,640
Speaker 1: you see is of a strong, resilient US economy which

80
00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,760
Speaker 1: still faces headwinds, whether it's a strong dollar or whether

81
00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,920
Speaker 1: it's weak global demand. We continue to monitor Brexit. So

82
00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 1: we have had a great month, We've had a great

83
00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,080
Speaker 1: streak for seventy months, but we're not taking our foot

84
00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:41,000
Speaker 1: off the accelerator. And you're still dealing with this issue

85
00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,880
Speaker 1: of underemployment. Speak about that if you can, well, right,

86
00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,200
Speaker 1: you know, in these numbers as well, you see not

87
00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:52,479
Speaker 1: only um about of the unemployed or long term unemployed,

88
00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:54,040
Speaker 1: which means that they have been out of work for

89
00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,000
Speaker 1: twenty seven weeks, you see people who are working part

90
00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,080
Speaker 1: time but want to work full time. So, yeah, the

91
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,239
Speaker 1: wor here it's not done. It's not only raising wages.

92
00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,000
Speaker 1: It's ensuring that everybody who wants a full time job

93
00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,080
Speaker 1: has access to a full time job. We did have

94
00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,039
Speaker 1: a little tick up in uh, the labor force participation

95
00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,520
Speaker 1: rate right now at sixty two point eight percent. We've

96
00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,640
Speaker 1: been hovering kind of around that level, you could say,

97
00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:19,640
Speaker 1: for a couple of years. Um, do you feel like

98
00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:24,360
Speaker 1: we've bottomed out here? Because, uh, previous administration officials have said, Look,

99
00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,240
Speaker 1: the reason it's come down so severely in the past,

100
00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:31,960
Speaker 1: let's say thirty or twenty years, is because of the

101
00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:35,280
Speaker 1: baby boomers demographics. Do you see it the same way, right,

102
00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,040
Speaker 1: we need it's hard to compare these numbers with where

103
00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,360
Speaker 1: we were thirty four years ago with the demographics of

104
00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,520
Speaker 1: the country of change. But to be sure, we were

105
00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:45,920
Speaker 1: not happy with sixty two point eight. We know we

106
00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:47,760
Speaker 1: need can see better on that. And one of the

107
00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,440
Speaker 1: ways we can do better on that is passing paid

108
00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:54,440
Speaker 1: family leave and paid sick leaf policies which provide which

109
00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:56,920
Speaker 1: helped get more people into the workforce who aren't working

110
00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,200
Speaker 1: right now. So, UM, that's one of the key numbers

111
00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,200
Speaker 1: that we look at every Chris lu just finally wonder

112
00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,279
Speaker 1: if you could characterize the report in terms of the

113
00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:10,120
Speaker 1: actual industry groops because they include manufacturing, healthcare, retail, as

114
00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:14,240
Speaker 1: well as leisure and hospitality. Well, you're right with virtually

115
00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:16,960
Speaker 1: every sector except for one, and that was the mining industry,

116
00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:20,440
Speaker 1: which is a proxy for energy. Every other sector major

117
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:25,080
Speaker 1: sector was up, whether it was professional business services, healthcare, financial, leisure,

118
00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:28,400
Speaker 1: and hospitality. So it's the range of both high wage,

119
00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:31,320
Speaker 1: middle wage and low wage shops. And so we are

120
00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,200
Speaker 1: very Uh, this is a very good report across the board.

121
00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,440
Speaker 1: And I mean it looks like we have we have

122
00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:41,920
Speaker 1: unemployment coming down. Uh, we have um, inflation going up.

123
00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,359
Speaker 1: I mean, this seems to be the perfect porridge for

124
00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:48,160
Speaker 1: the FED. Do you see us around full employment here

125
00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:49,520
Speaker 1: or do you think we still have a long way

126
00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:51,599
Speaker 1: to go from four point nine? You know, I don't

127
00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:53,400
Speaker 1: want to. I don't want to predict what the said

128
00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,080
Speaker 1: will do or where full employment is. All I know

129
00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,039
Speaker 1: is that we we still have more work we can do.

130
00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,120
Speaker 1: When I look at the number of people that at

131
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,880
Speaker 1: our long term unemployed, which is you know, around two million,

132
00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,279
Speaker 1: I look at the people who are working part time

133
00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:08,839
Speaker 1: for economic reasons but want to work full time. You know,

134
00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,360
Speaker 1: that's about five six million. Um. There are a lot

135
00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:14,880
Speaker 1: of people who are not as fully employed as they

136
00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:17,640
Speaker 1: could be, So we're not ready to that they rout

137
00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,040
Speaker 1: full employment fair enough, Chris, thanks so much for joining us.

138
00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,520
Speaker 1: Chris Leu, their deputy secretary at the Department of Labor

139
00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:27,520
Speaker 1: on the July Jobs Report. This is taking Stock. I'm

140
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,800
Speaker 1: pim Fox. My co host today Matt Miller. You're gonna

141
00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,160
Speaker 1: be sticking with me for a while. Mat, I'll do

142
00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,200
Speaker 1: my best to stay here for another hour, hour and

143
00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:46,320
Speaker 1: a half. All right, Well, this is Bloomberg coming up

144
00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:50,120
Speaker 1: on taking Stock. We've got Tara Sinclair, the chief economist

145
00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:55,200
Speaker 1: of indeed dot com, also Associate Professor Economics George Washington University.

146
00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:58,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna find out, despite the great jobs report, there's

147
00:07:58,520 --> 00:07:58,960
Speaker 1: a wrinkle.