WEBVTT - The Small Business Survival Guide 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 and of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.959 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.959 hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:26.079 Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:28.280 can also listen to our radio show at two pm 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.159 Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:37.159 YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. Let's go a level deeper, 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:41.640 as they say, into Dr Fauci's testimony, but also get 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:44.320 a real sense of where we are. We've got one 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:47.120 of our go to docs back with us, Dr Andy Pekash. 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:52.120 She is professor of Molecular microbiology and Immunology. I practice 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:54.240 saying that at night, just so I get it right. 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:57.240 JOHNS Hopkins University, Blumberg School of Public Health. As you 0:00:57.240 --> 0:00:59.200 can tell by the name the Blueberg School public Health. 0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:01.360 It's supported by Mike Bloomberg, the founder of Bloomberg LP 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:04.800 and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Peckash, great to have you back 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:07.920 with us. Thanks for having me on. Alright, so let's 0:01:07.959 --> 0:01:11.920 dive right into the Fauci testimony. Because all eyes obviously, 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:15.080 as we've been saying, have been on Washington to the 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:20.360 trained eye, of which you have to uh, what did 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:24.120 you see and hear from the doctor? Uh? You know, 0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:28.400 these are the things that everybody should be really aware of. Um. 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:32.560 When we pull back public health interventions, we expect to 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:36.280 see some cases come up. If we pull them back 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:38.679 too soon, the magnitude of the cases, the number of 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:42.160 cases will be higher. Um. If we're not prepared to 0:01:42.280 --> 0:01:47.200 do testing and really good contact tracing to identify the 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:50.520 people who have become in contact with infected people, we 0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:53.919 run the risk of having a rather large second bounce 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:56.840 back wave. UM. So it's really going to be important 0:01:56.840 --> 0:02:00.200 for us to time it right and be prepared pull 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:02.360 back these public health entrance so we can control a 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:05.720 virus at a different level. Right. So I don't want 0:02:05.720 --> 0:02:07.840 to get political, that is certainly not my aim here, 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:10.960 but I do wonder coming off a press conference yesterday 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:14.880 that was predominantly from the President and his team about 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:18.240 testing and saying we have enough tests out there and 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:22.760 everything that we need. Tell me about that specific event 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:26.320 and if we do indeed are doing the right kind 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:29.440 of testing, and that we are doing enough testing, especially 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:31.519 I think twenty four hours or was it this morning 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:35.880 where Wuhan is talking about testing everybody in their city. Yeah, exactly, 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:39.799 And and it really becomes a question of capacity. Um. 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:42.560 You know, we're we're able to test in most parts 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:44.320 of the country, and again this can be different in 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:47.720 different localities. Right. UM, Here in Maryland, we're doing a 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:52.320 good job of testing the symptomatic individuals. Um to turnaround 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:55.480 time on tests are fairly good. Um. But what we'd 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:58.400 like to be is a level above that. We want 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:01.880 to be able to turn around tests really fast, within 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:04.640 a day. You want to be able to test almost 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:07.280 immediately people who have come in contact with the pre 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:10.120 people who are sick, so that you can catch them 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:13.440 before they really start showing symptoms and tell them to 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:17.880 quarantine a little bit earlier. So we need more testing, 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:21.320 we need more coordination, we need more contact racing to 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:24.560 be able to deal with um the situation when we 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:28.440 relieve our public health interventions you know, Dr pekash I 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.040 saw a poll this morning that was talking about contact 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:38.040 tracing specifically, and people's willingness to participate was largely based 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:41.040 on their enthusiasm for it was largely based on who's 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:45.080 doing the administering. What's the right method to go about 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:48.960 doing that in your estimation, so you know, the best 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:54.640 method is to have train individuals who can UM capture 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:58.800 this information, contact you and give you the correct information 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:02.400 in terms of what needs to be done. UM. There 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:05.640 are people at state public health and county public health 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:09.400 departments who were doing this. UM. We hear at Johns 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:12.000 Hopkins Bloomer School of Public Health has had a number 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:15.960 of professors who have started horses to try to educate 0:04:16.000 --> 0:04:17.800 people in terms of how to do that to increase 0:04:17.839 --> 0:04:19.920 the number of people that are capable of doing good 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:23.320 social contact tracing. So there are some things that you 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:25.200 need to know to be able to train to be 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:28.479 do this all quite possible, UM, but you need to 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:31.400 invest right now to increase those numbers of individuals again, 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:33.719 so you're ready when you pull back public health interventions. 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:37.640 So when Health and Human Services Official Admiral Britt grow 0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:40.000 says that states and territories aimed to do twelve point 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:43.919 nine million tests over the next four weeks and represents 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.000 more than about nine point four million tests that the 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:48.000 US has done to date. Is that a lot in 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:52.600 a nation of more than three million people. So again, 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:54.200 you have to look at it at the local level 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:57.279 where there's outbreaks. UM, that's where you have to be 0:04:57.320 --> 0:05:00.760 looking at the testing, because having to asked some places 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:03.320 where there aren't any outbreaks right now or little numbers 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:07.760 of cases maybe isn't the best way of utilizing those tests. 0:05:07.839 --> 0:05:09.640 So we need to do more. We need to be 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:13.640 able to be testing individuals um um outside of just 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:18.440 the CDC recommendations for symptomatic individuals to really jump ahead 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:21.120 of this epidemic and be able to tamp it down 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:26.640 even greater. So as you look across the world, what 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:31.680 countries are good examples of where we should be headed in? 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:35.000 What countries are cautionary tales? Dr Pekash, Well, you can 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:37.120 look at a lot of the countries in Southeast Asia 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:40.360 who were on the front lines during those first few 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:45.479 weeks of the of the pandemic. UM countries like Singapore, 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:52.479 countries like UM, Japan, UM, Hong Kong, um. They have 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:55.400 all been able to stay ahead. Oh and I and 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:59.360 Taiwan is probably even the best example of that. Right, Um, 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:03.320 you can get ahead of the epidemic with massive amounts 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:08.640 of testing and good interventions. And if you can muster 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:12.919 those resources and and and put them to use effectively, 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:17.320 then you can. It's clear that you can keep this 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:22.080 epidemic UH down to manageable levels. All right, Charlie, thank 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.160 you so much. And of course, Charlie talking to some 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:27.839 of our great sources over John's Hopkins about how this virus, 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:30.400 some of the symptoms, and how it has evolved. We 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:33.279 want to continue our conversation with someone else from Johns Hopkins. 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:36.880 Andy Pekosh still with us, professor of Molecular bank robiology 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:40.840 and Immunology at Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:45.000 on the phone from Baltimore. So I have to ask you, 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:49.840 Dr Pekosh about a vaccine. Anthony Facci saying, don't expect 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:53.440 really anything by fall. He says, more likely within a 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:57.320 year to eighteen months. We've talked with you about this before. 0:06:57.360 --> 0:06:59.640 I mean, we need to be realistic. That's the time frame, 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:05.920 you know. Yes, I think that is a realistic timeframe. Uh. 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:08.240 There's a chance things to go faster, there's a chance 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.560 things could go slower. So I think, um, Dr Fauci 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:15.400 brings up a good realistic time frame. I think, you know, 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:17.880 this is all this is. This is a disease. That's 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:21.600 about all the little steps. The last two weeks have 0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:24.040 have have shown that a couple of vaccine candidates have 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:26.480 made it out of that first phase of testing, which 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:29.280 is the safety phase, and are now moving into the 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:32.040 larger scale of testing, which is to see if they 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:35.840 actually are inducing immune responses in a large segment of 0:07:35.880 --> 0:07:39.600 the population. So we're seeing some good signs. Um, if 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:42.679 these vaccines didn't pass the safety stage, then of course 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:44.920 we'd be in we'd be worried a little bit more. 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:50.520 So things are progressing. Um, everybody is trying to maximize, uh, 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:53.160 the amount of time or minimus should have minimize the 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:56.440 amount of time that is going through this by sort 0:07:56.440 --> 0:08:01.880 of maximizing overlap wherever that's possible. So everybody's moving as 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:03.920 fast as they can. But we have to be sure 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:06.520 about safety and we have to be sure about efficacy 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:12.440 before we even start thinking about vaccination strategies. And so 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:16.600 Dr Pekash help us understand Once we have a vaccine, 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.400 what's the smart way to sort of get it to 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.560 the world. Yeah, So there will be a lot of 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:26.560 discussions about this. Will be bringing in bioethicists to discuss 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:30.040 this as well as medical doctors as well as as 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:34.200 well as modelers and other scientists that can help figure out, UM, 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:39.640 what populations to immunize. UM. Clearly, we want to immunize 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:43.640 and protect the most vulnerable populations. So in the case 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:47.319 of COVID NINETEAM, that certainly does seem to be the elderly. UM. 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:51.760 But we also want to immunize those people who are 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:56.040 caring for them, so healthcare workers, frontline first responders, UM. 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:59.040 And if the data shows us that particular sections of 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:02.360 the population might be responsible for a lot of spread, 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.680 well it might be really useful to target those sections 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:08.640 of the populations to try to again cut these trains 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:12.240 of transmission. I do wonder too, you know, it feels 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:14.640 like over the last few decades we have seen certainly 0:09:14.640 --> 0:09:19.439 an increase in autoimmune illnesses. UH, and these viruses that 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:21.840 are getting maybe tougher and tougher. Is this our new 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:25.680 world order? And are we going to have similar viruses 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:29.520 like COVID nineteen that are going to kind of paralyze 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:33.360 our society in the future. Uh. You know, uh, there's 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:35.160 so much to deal with this current one that it's 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:39.240 hard to think forward. But um, yes, you know we shan't. 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:42.640 We have to be constantly aware that, um, we are 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:45.120 coming in contact with more and more viruses that are 0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:49.000 present in more and more animal reservoirs out there. And 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:52.280 COVID nineteen is just a great example of the fact 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:55.360 that some of those viruses are actually able to make 0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:59.760 the jump into humans, um, with relative ease. You know, 0:09:59.800 --> 0:10:04.160 the vast majority jumping to humans is a problem and 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:08.280 they don't do that successfully. But in two thousand nine 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:12.400 we had swine influenza become a pandemic, and now in 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:17.400 two nineteen we had COVID nineteen. And you know, as 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:20.160 population grows, as we come in contact with more and 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:24.240 more unique animal reservoirs, we should expect that these things 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:27.640 are going to be a constant threat going forward. All right, well, 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.640 we really appreciate it as always. Dr Andy Pekash is 0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:34.920 Professor of molecular microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:37.760 University Bloomberg School of Public Health. That school, of course, 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:41.320 supported by Mike Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropis. 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:44.240 He joined us on the phone from Baltimore. Couple headlines. 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:47.560 We want to bring you New Jersey, home state of 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:51.640 Carol Masser. Uh, the fewest new virus cases in more 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:55.040 than six weeks. Uh. This is a trend, a good 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:57.880 trend that we are starting to see New York City 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:01.600 in the Tri state area at testament to some pretty 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:06.800 aggressive measures that the governors in this region have made. Carol. Meanwhile, 0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:08.880 we did here also from Charlie about the New York 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:11.880 COVID nineteen cases rising four tenths of a percent versus 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:14.360 the previous seven day average that was double that, eight 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:16.880 tens of a percent. So but again, these trend lines 0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:19.360 have to be going for I believe a decline of 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:22.640 two weeks right before you can really think about reopening. 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:25.840 And that's that's a key metric. Another important thing. On 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:31.960 a lighter note, Room Raider Anthony Fauci ten out of tens, 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:37.360 of course zero. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:41.400 Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. This is one 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:43.720 of the most read stories on the Bloomberg it's about 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:48.120 if landlords get wiped out, Wall Street wins and not renters. 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:50.440 It is in the magazine, it's on newsstands later in 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:52.880 the week, online and on the Bloomberg Perssont Coople is 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:55.439 US real estate reporter at Bloomberg News on the phone 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:58.640 from Massachusetts, along with Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Weber 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:01.760 on the phone from Brooklyn. And you know, Joel, like 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:04.440 so many stories in Business Week, you guys do talk. 0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:08.400 There's always, it seems, winners and losers, that's right, UM, 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.640 And this one I think is um somewhat somewhat unexpected 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:16.400 as UM as this pandemic has sort of transpired. And obviously, UM, 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:20.400 the hits to the job market have impact on people's 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:24.240 abilities to pay their rent and mortgages. And there's been 0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:26.600 you know, a modest amount of relief on that front, 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:30.760 at least it's in progress. But the maybe an unexpected 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:35.760 victim is the landlords, especially small landlords. Not what do 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:39.040 you find as you kind of dug into the story, Yeah, 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.840 I mean like they're you know, landlords are often not 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:45.280 the most popular group out there, but you know, and 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:47.839 and maybe that's one of the reasons why they're not 0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:51.360 really getting help, whereas a lot of other people are. Um. 0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:55.319 You see that, you know, when people don't pay rent um, 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:59.520 a lot of these small landlords um don't have the 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:02.560 res verse is necessarily to kind of withstand that. Hint. 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.440 If you have you know, let's say five units and 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:07.719 three of them are not paying, that's a big percentage 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:12.160 of your portfolio. Well and and presian. This story goes 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:14.480 to something that you and the team have done such 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:17.880 an amazing job over the past few years of documenting, 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:20.120 and it goes back to you know, a lot that 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:23.920 the magazine has done here about who the landlords really are, 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:27.240 especially the big landlords are in the country, and a 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:31.560 lot of them are from Wall Street. Yeah, you know, 0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:34.640 but it's interesting actually if you look at all the 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.079 the the properties and all the actually if you look 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:40.360 at the all the properties in the US, um about 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:44.640 you know, the properties are actually owned by individuals are 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:47.959 small land um. If you look at the individual units 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:52.040 right then it's for it's over fifties. Still interesting, So 0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:56.720 a lot of the landlords out there are actually um, 0:13:56.960 --> 0:14:00.240 mom and pops and um. You know, so we think 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:05.119 of you know, these very wealthy people are company companies 0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:08.920 right with deep pockets that can withstand this kind of shock. 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:11.880 But which is they're actually just your neighbors, you know, 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:15.560 the local dentist or you know, or somebody with less 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:20.920 money than that. So, for shot, what is the scuttle 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:24.520 on Wall Street? Is there is this viewed as an opportunity. 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:26.360 Is Wall Street youre going to sweep in here much 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.600 like in the financial crisis and just walk out holding 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:31.880 all kinds of new real estate? Or is it a 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:36.400 little bit more great than that? Well, so okay, let's 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:38.720 take a step back because what what what's happening right 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:42.760 now is that we have in many states their eviction 0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:47.320 bands in place, so the small landlords in general UM 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:50.680 aren't able to evict tenants who aren't paying UM. And 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:52.720 that's for good reason, right we don't want people out 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:56.240 in the streets during a health crisis. But the effect 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:59.400 of that is that they are going now month after 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:03.800 months without income coming in and they can't really they 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:06.520 don't have any tools to kind of convince people to 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:10.240 pay and and many of them still have mortgages and 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:13.720 they have to pay property taxes. There's no forbearance on 0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:17.280 property taxes. So eventually, uh, you know, they're gonna get 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:19.560 in trouble, they're gonna have to sell, probably at the 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:23.840 stress prices and guests. Who has the money to buy 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:28.640 those properties? Um, it's likely going to be Wall Street 0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:32.600 in some form, private equity firms. Um. That's what happened 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:36.600 last time. They came in and they bought up single 0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:40.080 founding homes at very low prices that pennies on the dollar, 0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:43.120 and um turn them into rentals. And this time they 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:46.400 may just be buying rentals. I have to say. I mean, 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:48.360 just some of the anecdotes and the people that you 0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:51.000 talked to in this story just you know, remind us, 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:53.560 as you say, the backbone of so many of these properties. 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.680 It's a lot of small businesses. Um. And it's just 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:00.680 such a contrast to homeowners being given a break through, 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:04.480 you know, the Washington programs. But renters are not what 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:08.440 what are trade associations and you know, groups of landlords, 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:10.360 you know, what are they lobbying for? What are they 0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:13.200 likely to get maybe in some kind of stimulus or 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:17.320 you know, help from the government, federal government. It's not 0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:19.640 clear they're gonna get anything, to be honest, but right 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:22.800 there are some bills floating out there. Um, you know, 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:28.320 there's there's the UM some of the trade associations are 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:32.360 kind of getting behind an idea, UH for like a 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:38.480 hundred billion dollars UM that would go to landlords directly 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.840 and UM and and that would pay for missing rent 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:47.400 um that you know read that they're not collecting UM. 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:51.200 But you know that at this point there's no UM. 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:54.160 You know, I don't think they're really behind any particular bill, right, 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:57.120 all right, Well, it's a really terrific story, one of 0:16:57.120 --> 0:16:59.359 the most read on the Blue Berger's in the magazine 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:01.440 UH coming out this week, but you can read it 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.520 now on Bloomberg dot com and the Bloomberg terminal care. 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:06.680 I love how he writes the next housing crisis is here, 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:09.040 and this time it's about rentals. I mean, you know, 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:11.520 it's always the devil's in the details. When you look 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.359 at things from you know, ten tho miles up, you 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.600 don't always catch the nuances to a situation. And I 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:19.399 feel like this is one of those stories. It's a 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:22.480 typical you know, great reporting Barber Shawn and his team 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:26.400 and Business Week, where you dig down into it you're like, oh, Okay, 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:29.320 that's what's really going on, and that's who ultimately owns 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:32.159 this or who doesn't and and these are the implications 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:35.760 and started playing it out. Really nice stuff. This is 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:39.679 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:43.320 Bloomberg Radio. All right, you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week. 0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:46.639 Time for Business Week Economics, and today we're talking with 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:51.560 Harvard University economist Professor UH Robert Barrow, and he looks 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.040 back to history for some guidance on the lifting of 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:56.800 restrictions put in place by COVID Nineteam. It's something that 0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:00.760 Jason Business Week Economics, thatder Peter Correy wrote about UH 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:03.080 in the magazine. We talked about it with Peter. It's 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:06.280 based on Professor Barrow's work, and lucky for us, Professor 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:08.359 Barrow joins us on the phone from Maine. Welcome to 0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:12.920 Bloomberg Business Week. Thanks good to be on. So tell 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:15.520 us a little bit about your work, because the headline 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:18.240 on Peter's story was a lesson from the Spanish flu, 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:21.800 don't end restrictions too soon. And as you know, it 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:24.879 feels like there's so much in terms of conversations debate 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:28.159 about social distancing and how long we need to stay 0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:31.159 in isolation and shut down. Tell us a little bit 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:33.000 about what we learned from the Spanish flu and how 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:37.760 that might help us today. Well, first, I think it 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.159 is the historical example that's most relevant for today in 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:45.720 terms of a coronavirus pandemic um of a very serious 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:49.880 event nine eighteen to twenty worldwide, including the United States. 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:54.000 But the work you were specifically talking about is on 0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:59.120 the so called non pharmaceutical public health interventions, and there's 0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:03.040 information about at that across UH forty three US cities 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:07.760 in nineteen eighteen nineteen nineteen, and you can see what 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:12.200 was the impact of things like school closings and prohibitions, 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:17.800 on public gatherings and quarantine isolation measures, and you can 0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:20.800 see the effect of that on the flu death rates 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:25.480 and on flattening the curve among these r g u 0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:30.119 S cities. UM. The basic finding is that these measures 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:34.879 succeeded clearly in flattening the curve, so the relative peak 0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:38.760 in the death rate was pretty dramatically reduced when there 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:42.560 were more of these interventions put in place. UM. But 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.600 the disappointing part is that it didn't actually end up 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:51.960 ultimately reducing the total death rates in this nineteen nineteen period. 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:55.280 And I think that's probably because the measures were not 0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:58.000 kept in place long enough. They were typically only in 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:03.000 place about four to five week and uh, A likely 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:05.240 inference is that it had to be more like ten 0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:09.399 to twelve weeks to be really effective on the overall deaths. 0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:11.720 And that's the kind of debate we're having currently in 0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:14.720 the US. I would say absolutely. I mean, what you 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:17.800 are speaking to Professor Barrow is exactly. We just heard 0:20:18.359 --> 0:20:20.800 a tidbit of this from our news guy Charlie Pellett 0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:24.520 that you know that Dr Fauci was saying earlier this 0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:30.280 morning to lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Is this just a question? 0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:33.000 You are an economist after all. Is this just a 0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:36.560 question of people being so worried about the economy that 0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:41.680 they're just they're moving too fast? You know, it's reasonable 0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:45.440 to be worried. I mean, a major economic downturn, it's 0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:49.679 going to be costly. The key thing there is not 0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:52.760 so much how deep is the contraction, but how long 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:54.480 is it gonna last? Are we're going to have a 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:57.399 pretty rapid rebound And I think there's a good chance 0:20:57.400 --> 0:21:01.480 of that if we can get past the disease issue. 0:21:02.480 --> 0:21:05.720 Oh well, what's interesting for people to be worrying about 0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:08.840 this well, absolutely, And what's interesting too is we keep 0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:13.440 talking about the economic cost of certainly the stimulus packages 0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:15.800 or the relief packages that are being done, and also 0:21:15.880 --> 0:21:19.520 the cost to the economy. But you also have done 0:21:19.520 --> 0:21:23.440 work on the value of a single life, right and 0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:27.359 what that person does in terms of working and economic input. 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:28.960 I mean, I hate to put it in such kind 0:21:28.960 --> 0:21:31.080 of black and white terms, but right we all have 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:34.480 a value to society and certainly to our economy, and 0:21:34.520 --> 0:21:36.879 if we're not alive to contribute, that's going to have 0:21:36.920 --> 0:21:41.000 an impact too. Well. There's a pretty big literature on this, 0:21:41.440 --> 0:21:44.320 not one to which I've contributed, but which I've read 0:21:45.040 --> 0:21:48.480 what a good deal of interest. So it's really about 0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:51.000 how much would people be willing to pay ex ante 0:21:51.280 --> 0:21:55.320 in order to reduce the probability of dying in order 0:21:55.320 --> 0:21:58.680 to for example, make your job safer for risk here, 0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:01.119 or to put it in other way, how much extra 0:22:01.160 --> 0:22:03.120 do you have to be paid in terms of wages 0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:06.080 to take a job that's a little riskier in terms 0:22:06.080 --> 0:22:09.800 of the risk of life and death. And people have 0:22:09.880 --> 0:22:12.200 done a lot of work backing out from that. What's 0:22:12.240 --> 0:22:16.760 the implicit so called statistical value of a life and 0:22:16.840 --> 0:22:19.760 a typical estimate for a rich country like the United 0:22:19.800 --> 0:22:22.000 States is that it's a pretty high number. It's about 0:22:22.000 --> 0:22:25.440 ten million dollars. That's a sort of current estimate. Of course, 0:22:25.480 --> 0:22:29.480 has a range that's used. Even the Environmental Protection Agency 0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:33.919 uses a number which is in that ballpark. Um. So 0:22:33.960 --> 0:22:37.440 I've tried to think about trading off the economic costs, 0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:40.280 for example, of the interventions we've been putting in place, 0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:44.439 and you know what's the loss there in GDP versus 0:22:44.480 --> 0:22:46.640 what's the gain? If you have some idea how many 0:22:46.720 --> 0:22:49.080 lives do you save and how do you value those? 0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:53.760 And when I put that together as a rough calculation, 0:22:53.920 --> 0:22:57.080 I get that even though the economic cost is large, 0:22:57.560 --> 0:22:59.840 it looks like it's worth it, and it's worth keeping 0:22:59.840 --> 0:23:03.360 the marriages in place for for longer, for another four 0:23:03.520 --> 0:23:07.159 six weeks something like that. Probably. Uh, I think that's 0:23:06.600 --> 0:23:11.520 consistent with what Dr Facci has been arguing. Right, that's 0:23:11.560 --> 0:23:13.800