1 00:00:11,697 --> 00:00:14,977 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 2 00:00:14,977 --> 00:00:17,977 Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 3 00:00:18,017 --> 00:00:21,857 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Kicking off the new year 4 00:00:22,057 --> 00:00:25,897 Speaker 1: with a huge bang actual banks, many of them in 5 00:00:26,137 --> 00:00:30,497 Speaker 1: Caracas and the surrounding area. Trump administration swinging for the 6 00:00:30,537 --> 00:00:37,977 Speaker 1: fences right away with a tactically incredible operation to seize 7 00:00:38,017 --> 00:00:41,937 Speaker 1: Maduro and take him now to the United States where 8 00:00:41,937 --> 00:00:46,057 Speaker 1: he faces the full weight of the federal criminal justice system. Massive, 9 00:00:46,457 --> 00:00:49,337 Speaker 1: massive move in Venezuela. Our friend Stephen Yates joins us. Now, 10 00:00:49,537 --> 00:00:52,977 Speaker 1: let's talk about the what's next and the big strategic 11 00:00:53,017 --> 00:00:55,297 Speaker 1: implications of this. We went into Steve Steve's with the 12 00:00:55,297 --> 00:00:58,297 Speaker 1: Heritage Foundation, you know's senior fellow there. He's a senior 13 00:00:58,377 --> 00:01:03,097 Speaker 1: national security guy to a former White House and Steve, 14 00:01:04,137 --> 00:01:05,457 Speaker 1: let's start with it. I want to get into the 15 00:01:06,137 --> 00:01:09,737 Speaker 1: immediate what's next a little bit, but also the implications 16 00:01:09,737 --> 00:01:11,657 Speaker 1: for how the rest of the world is looking at 17 00:01:11,657 --> 00:01:15,097 Speaker 1: this with you. Let's start with I get it. There's 18 00:01:15,217 --> 00:01:18,697 Speaker 1: this concern always of the non intervention has sent a 19 00:01:18,737 --> 00:01:20,417 Speaker 1: little one note to me on this one and not 20 00:01:20,537 --> 00:01:22,377 Speaker 1: an inventions might be a little too kind. I think 21 00:01:22,417 --> 00:01:24,577 Speaker 1: some of them are are a little more isolationist, even 22 00:01:24,617 --> 00:01:28,377 Speaker 1: the non interventionists. But oh my gosh, do we this 23 00:01:28,537 --> 00:01:30,737 Speaker 1: this is going to be Iraq again. I want you 24 00:01:30,777 --> 00:01:35,177 Speaker 1: to give me your sense of why that's certainly too 25 00:01:35,657 --> 00:01:39,177 Speaker 1: it's not the case yet, and why it's unlikely to 26 00:01:39,217 --> 00:01:42,097 Speaker 1: be the case that this is the quagmire that every 27 00:01:42,377 --> 00:01:44,897 Speaker 1: that's not everyone, but that some people are freaking out about. 28 00:01:46,257 --> 00:01:49,217 Speaker 2: Well Buck, yeah, you're definitely right that the chorus has 29 00:01:49,257 --> 00:01:52,137 Speaker 2: already begun, and they're sort of in the first or 30 00:01:52,177 --> 00:01:55,657 Speaker 2: second chorus of their of their song at this point. 31 00:01:56,297 --> 00:01:59,417 Speaker 2: And I was there in the White House when the 32 00:01:59,457 --> 00:02:02,497 Speaker 2: build up for the Iraq War was being made. I 33 00:02:02,537 --> 00:02:05,817 Speaker 2: saw the early stages of shokun Awe and frankly was 34 00:02:05,857 --> 00:02:09,657 Speaker 2: blown away with how effective that initial stage was. But 35 00:02:09,737 --> 00:02:13,417 Speaker 2: I was also there for Colin Powell, second former Secretary 36 00:02:13,417 --> 00:02:16,977 Speaker 2: of State, giving his infamous Pottery barn analogy that if 37 00:02:17,017 --> 00:02:20,257 Speaker 2: it's broken, you own it. I have never believed such 38 00:02:20,297 --> 00:02:24,057 Speaker 2: things when it comes to warfare international affairs, but it 39 00:02:24,137 --> 00:02:26,217 Speaker 2: seemed to win the day at the time, And of 40 00:02:26,217 --> 00:02:29,057 Speaker 2: course the rest of the script is now famous or infamous, 41 00:02:29,057 --> 00:02:31,257 Speaker 2: depending on your point of view. We did get into 42 00:02:31,257 --> 00:02:35,217 Speaker 2: the building of writing constitutions and trying to run agencies 43 00:02:36,177 --> 00:02:40,337 Speaker 2: and trying to put democracy where it hadn't been before. 44 00:02:41,297 --> 00:02:45,657 Speaker 2: And there's no element of that here, But I understand 45 00:02:45,657 --> 00:02:49,257 Speaker 2: why some people are reflexively lurching toward that, as the 46 00:02:49,297 --> 00:02:52,497 Speaker 2: President laid out a pretty open ended statement of We're 47 00:02:52,537 --> 00:02:57,297 Speaker 2: going to run the place for a judicious transition until 48 00:02:57,337 --> 00:03:00,897 Speaker 2: things can get underway with a leadership we know we 49 00:03:00,937 --> 00:03:05,097 Speaker 2: can deal with. So it does sort of rhetorically leave 50 00:03:05,177 --> 00:03:07,897 Speaker 2: some doors open. But what he's done is he's kept 51 00:03:08,017 --> 00:03:12,937 Speaker 2: the Golden Armada at see. So whatever oil there is 52 00:03:13,177 --> 00:03:17,137 Speaker 2: in Venezuela isn't getting anywhere unless the United States wants 53 00:03:17,177 --> 00:03:19,697 Speaker 2: it to get anywhere. That ghost fleet is not going 54 00:03:19,737 --> 00:03:23,257 Speaker 2: to be shipping. There is going to be pretty strong 55 00:03:23,297 --> 00:03:25,977 Speaker 2: pressure to work with the administration to make some kind 56 00:03:26,017 --> 00:03:28,577 Speaker 2: of a deal. But Dureau made the grave mistake of 57 00:03:28,617 --> 00:03:31,577 Speaker 2: when Donald Trump offers you a deal, thinking he shouldn't 58 00:03:31,577 --> 00:03:34,777 Speaker 2: take it seriously. Then he made the even more grave 59 00:03:34,857 --> 00:03:37,617 Speaker 2: mistake of trying to wave a sword in Trump's face 60 00:03:37,657 --> 00:03:40,737 Speaker 2: and daring him to come and get him. And while 61 00:03:41,137 --> 00:03:44,137 Speaker 2: here we are, but I see none of the echoes 62 00:03:44,337 --> 00:03:48,937 Speaker 2: of what the Iran or Afghanistan nation building experiences were 63 00:03:49,017 --> 00:03:52,257 Speaker 2: This is not the Middle East. We are dealing with 64 00:03:52,737 --> 00:03:58,057 Speaker 2: mafia like, cartel like organizations, and maybe some people see 65 00:03:58,177 --> 00:04:02,577 Speaker 2: jihadists organizations that way, but in some ways the cartels 66 00:04:02,617 --> 00:04:06,617 Speaker 2: are not as true believer as those Islamist groups might be, 67 00:04:07,217 --> 00:04:10,897 Speaker 2: and a lot of times they are better at shifting 68 00:04:10,977 --> 00:04:13,657 Speaker 2: gears and working out a new deal. So we still 69 00:04:13,657 --> 00:04:17,657 Speaker 2: have a lot to sort out. We've only gotten a 70 00:04:17,857 --> 00:04:21,497 Speaker 2: bad guy apprehended at this point, and the next leadership 71 00:04:21,577 --> 00:04:24,137 Speaker 2: is still to be determined. But this is very very 72 00:04:24,137 --> 00:04:25,697 Speaker 2: different in a lot of different respects. 73 00:04:25,697 --> 00:04:27,977 Speaker 1: To me, what does that look like? How does this 74 00:04:28,097 --> 00:04:34,577 Speaker 1: become MacArthur in Japan circa end of World War Two 75 00:04:35,217 --> 00:04:40,937 Speaker 1: instead of Bremmer in Iraq circa two thousand and three. 76 00:04:42,457 --> 00:04:45,657 Speaker 2: Well, number one, it seems like the Secretary of State 77 00:04:45,897 --> 00:04:49,057 Speaker 2: is and our National security advisor Mark Rubio are working 78 00:04:49,217 --> 00:04:54,537 Speaker 2: with the Vice President who's now the acting head of Venezuela, 79 00:04:54,697 --> 00:04:58,977 Speaker 2: and that is very, very different than what debathification was 80 00:04:59,257 --> 00:05:04,417 Speaker 2: in Iraq, and it's sort of disappointing to people who 81 00:05:04,497 --> 00:05:08,577 Speaker 2: are activist and wanted an immediate transition to democracy. I 82 00:05:08,617 --> 00:05:11,497 Speaker 2: would count myself among those that would like to see 83 00:05:11,497 --> 00:05:15,257 Speaker 2: it move in that direction faster, and we may. Yet 84 00:05:15,577 --> 00:05:19,017 Speaker 2: I do think some kind of a legitimate national election 85 00:05:19,217 --> 00:05:22,617 Speaker 2: has to be on the horizon as part of this transition. 86 00:05:22,937 --> 00:05:27,457 Speaker 2: That's where this controversy really originated. Maduro lost the last 87 00:05:27,537 --> 00:05:32,177 Speaker 2: election in Venezuela by a lot and yet kept power, 88 00:05:32,697 --> 00:05:37,217 Speaker 2: and the legitimate winner was pushed into exile. So that's 89 00:05:37,297 --> 00:05:38,937 Speaker 2: how we end up where we are. He's not the 90 00:05:39,017 --> 00:05:43,497 Speaker 2: legitimate head of the government. And that's also different from 91 00:05:44,177 --> 00:05:47,657 Speaker 2: what we faced in Iraq and Libya and elsewhere where 92 00:05:47,657 --> 00:05:51,457 Speaker 2: you had long established dictators that were running their countries. 93 00:05:52,497 --> 00:05:55,617 Speaker 1: Yes, I mean I think that, for one thing, you're 94 00:05:55,617 --> 00:06:00,217 Speaker 1: not going to have even the most devoted Maduro thugs 95 00:06:00,577 --> 00:06:04,617 Speaker 1: strapping suicide vests on and running into crowded marketplaces like 96 00:06:04,657 --> 00:06:06,337 Speaker 1: that's that's not a thing. 97 00:06:06,497 --> 00:06:08,657 Speaker 2: That's not going exactly. 98 00:06:08,977 --> 00:06:11,817 Speaker 1: Yeah. So this notion that oh, we're making the same 99 00:06:11,897 --> 00:06:14,177 Speaker 1: mistake as man in the least, I think is an absurdity. 100 00:06:14,817 --> 00:06:17,897 Speaker 1: And also I think that for the people, As a 101 00:06:17,937 --> 00:06:21,217 Speaker 1: guy who lives in South Florida, you're obviously you know 102 00:06:21,297 --> 00:06:23,337 Speaker 1: the Florida seene well, but you're a little bit to 103 00:06:23,377 --> 00:06:25,937 Speaker 1: my north. South Florida. We have a ton. You probably 104 00:06:25,977 --> 00:06:28,137 Speaker 1: have a lot of Venezuelans in the Tampa area too. 105 00:06:28,537 --> 00:06:31,617 Speaker 1: We have a ton of Venezuelan refugees down here. And 106 00:06:31,737 --> 00:06:36,217 Speaker 1: there's no debate among Venezuelans who have come this country 107 00:06:36,657 --> 00:06:40,297 Speaker 1: Chavez Majuro ruined their country. I mean, it's not like 108 00:06:40,337 --> 00:06:44,217 Speaker 1: we're stomping in there and there's some big constituency that says, no, 109 00:06:44,377 --> 00:06:46,497 Speaker 1: he actually is doing a good job, and no, we 110 00:06:46,657 --> 00:06:53,457 Speaker 1: let the test run itself out and it economically, security side, internationally, 111 00:06:53,537 --> 00:06:56,057 Speaker 1: you name it. It's hard to think of a faster 112 00:06:56,177 --> 00:06:59,337 Speaker 1: way to ruin a country, or a more thorough ruining 113 00:06:59,337 --> 00:07:04,857 Speaker 1: of a country than what the Chavista Maduro apparatus accomplished 114 00:07:04,897 --> 00:07:05,657 Speaker 1: in Venezuela. 115 00:07:06,497 --> 00:07:09,817 Speaker 2: It's absolutely true. Really, over the last twenty five years, 116 00:07:10,217 --> 00:07:12,297 Speaker 2: there have been a lot of Venezuelans and a lot 117 00:07:12,337 --> 00:07:15,977 Speaker 2: of American cities. There's plenty in the DC area, as 118 00:07:16,017 --> 00:07:19,097 Speaker 2: witnessed recently in New York, there's plenty of people. And 119 00:07:19,177 --> 00:07:21,937 Speaker 2: while the teachers' unions and others might have organized in 120 00:07:22,057 --> 00:07:28,097 Speaker 2: protest for Trump's action, Venezuelans almost universally were just saying 121 00:07:28,217 --> 00:07:32,817 Speaker 2: thank you and celebrating that this thug was removed they 122 00:07:32,897 --> 00:07:36,457 Speaker 2: more than anybody know that there's still much more to go. 123 00:07:37,177 --> 00:07:43,017 Speaker 2: But Venezuela was a very beautiful, wealthy, successful country. A 124 00:07:43,097 --> 00:07:45,937 Speaker 2: lot of Americans really don't have the perspective that it's 125 00:07:46,017 --> 00:07:49,457 Speaker 2: only like four hundred and fifty miles to American territory 126 00:07:49,457 --> 00:07:52,817 Speaker 2: in Puerto Rico, and it's only like the distance between 127 00:07:52,857 --> 00:07:56,097 Speaker 2: Denver and d C to get from Caracas to Miami, 128 00:07:56,817 --> 00:08:00,817 Speaker 2: and so this is not that far away. You throw 129 00:08:00,857 --> 00:08:03,417 Speaker 2: into the mix the links of just like you mentioned 130 00:08:03,537 --> 00:08:08,857 Speaker 2: the Venezuelans that are in Miami, the Free Cuba constituency 131 00:08:08,937 --> 00:08:14,417 Speaker 2: and the Free Venezuela constituency are very simpatico and very similar. 132 00:08:14,857 --> 00:08:18,057 Speaker 2: And just like there were Cubans that were killed in 133 00:08:18,177 --> 00:08:21,497 Speaker 2: this raid mixed in with the wrong side, there are 134 00:08:21,497 --> 00:08:23,977 Speaker 2: a lot of Cubans in Venezuelans and the United States 135 00:08:24,217 --> 00:08:26,737 Speaker 2: that are mixed in together on the right side of this. 136 00:08:27,097 --> 00:08:31,257 Speaker 2: And that's a constituency that should matter. And as long 137 00:08:31,297 --> 00:08:35,137 Speaker 2: as we aren't sending in an occupation force and trying 138 00:08:35,177 --> 00:08:39,057 Speaker 2: to send the next generation of Americans to provide police 139 00:08:39,137 --> 00:08:44,177 Speaker 2: work inside of Venezuela, then we're staying, I think clear 140 00:08:44,257 --> 00:08:47,137 Speaker 2: where we're using the leverage we have President Trump's made 141 00:08:47,177 --> 00:08:51,257 Speaker 2: clear we're going to use the oil for revenue, and 142 00:08:51,817 --> 00:08:55,857 Speaker 2: that is also a glide path to a different trajectory 143 00:08:56,097 --> 00:08:59,497 Speaker 2: in whatever deal is struck. Even if we don't get 144 00:08:59,537 --> 00:09:02,777 Speaker 2: anything out of the oil, denying it to Russia, China 145 00:09:02,857 --> 00:09:07,297 Speaker 2: and others has an impact and the demonstration effect of 146 00:09:07,657 --> 00:09:11,297 Speaker 2: what the United States is capable of doing. And I 147 00:09:11,337 --> 00:09:14,497 Speaker 2: think it's been undervalued that if America was going to 148 00:09:14,577 --> 00:09:18,457 Speaker 2: let the revisionists bad guys of the world muck around 149 00:09:18,497 --> 00:09:21,417 Speaker 2: in our own backyard, then they didn't really believe we 150 00:09:21,417 --> 00:09:24,857 Speaker 2: were going to do very much in our distant abroad. 151 00:09:25,057 --> 00:09:28,377 Speaker 2: So if you're wondering how a China or Russia or 152 00:09:28,377 --> 00:09:31,457 Speaker 2: in Iran looks at this, it might not change all 153 00:09:31,497 --> 00:09:35,137 Speaker 2: of their calculus, but it shows well, if America is 154 00:09:35,217 --> 00:09:38,817 Speaker 2: really serious about fixing its border, and holy cow, did 155 00:09:38,817 --> 00:09:41,457 Speaker 2: we do a job on that, and we're serious about 156 00:09:41,497 --> 00:09:44,737 Speaker 2: fixing our neighborhood and pushing it into the right direction, 157 00:09:45,337 --> 00:09:47,377 Speaker 2: I do have to think twice about whether America is 158 00:09:47,417 --> 00:09:50,297 Speaker 2: ready to use force to shape things in my neighborhood too. 159 00:09:50,857 --> 00:09:52,377 Speaker 1: You think we're going to get into that. I want 160 00:09:52,377 --> 00:09:56,537 Speaker 1: to talk about the axis of opposition around the world 161 00:09:56,617 --> 00:10:02,177 Speaker 1: and how they must see this, including the implications for 162 00:10:02,297 --> 00:10:04,137 Speaker 1: a standoff that is near and dear to your heart 163 00:10:04,177 --> 00:10:06,977 Speaker 1: and mind, which is of course China and Taiwan. But 164 00:10:08,257 --> 00:10:12,217 Speaker 1: just on Cuba. Do you think we know that the 165 00:10:12,257 --> 00:10:14,777 Speaker 1: Cuban regime was propped up by the oil from Venezuela 166 00:10:14,857 --> 00:10:18,217 Speaker 1: and that it's already it's a decrepit disaster of a 167 00:10:18,257 --> 00:10:20,817 Speaker 1: government and has been for a long time, but increasingly 168 00:10:20,897 --> 00:10:24,577 Speaker 1: now it's it's decrepit and just pathetic, right, It's you know, 169 00:10:24,777 --> 00:10:27,537 Speaker 1: there's no there's no hiding from the reality of what 170 00:10:27,577 --> 00:10:30,257 Speaker 1: they've done to their island and everything else. What do 171 00:10:30,297 --> 00:10:32,777 Speaker 1: you think the smart next steps look like from the 172 00:10:32,897 --> 00:10:38,577 Speaker 1: US side to continue on with the wind streak here 173 00:10:38,577 --> 00:10:40,697 Speaker 1: that we have in Venezuela as it pertains to Cuba. 174 00:10:40,737 --> 00:10:44,097 Speaker 1: What what should we do? What could we do? Well? 175 00:10:44,137 --> 00:10:47,417 Speaker 2: First, we need to finish through to something that resembles 176 00:10:47,457 --> 00:10:53,737 Speaker 2: a positive, stable outcome in Venezuela. I think a real 177 00:10:53,817 --> 00:10:58,097 Speaker 2: transition where there's a completely different relationship with the United States, 178 00:10:59,177 --> 00:11:04,497 Speaker 2: where exiles feel safe to return. Then that I think 179 00:11:04,617 --> 00:11:09,417 Speaker 2: sets an extremely dangerous precedent for the Cuban regime to 180 00:11:09,777 --> 00:11:12,017 Speaker 2: stay in power, because there are a lot of Cubans 181 00:11:12,377 --> 00:11:14,937 Speaker 2: that would like to be able to go back, and 182 00:11:14,977 --> 00:11:17,057 Speaker 2: a lot of people living in Cuba know that if 183 00:11:17,057 --> 00:11:22,657 Speaker 2: those people came back, they're bringing wealth, entrepreneurship, opportunity ties 184 00:11:22,737 --> 00:11:24,497 Speaker 2: to the rest of the world that have been denied 185 00:11:24,537 --> 00:11:30,017 Speaker 2: them for generations. They know that the economic legitimacy of 186 00:11:30,057 --> 00:11:33,057 Speaker 2: that is very, very powerful, and if they see that 187 00:11:33,177 --> 00:11:36,697 Speaker 2: turn in Venezuela decisively, that is I think the single 188 00:11:36,777 --> 00:11:40,377 Speaker 2: best down payment we may But there's already been elections 189 00:11:40,377 --> 00:11:43,337 Speaker 2: in Latin America that are starting to turn our way. 190 00:11:43,857 --> 00:11:46,697 Speaker 2: Chile's had an election, we already have the very famous 191 00:11:46,777 --> 00:11:51,177 Speaker 2: Malay in Argentina. We have some Central American leaders who 192 00:11:51,217 --> 00:11:54,017 Speaker 2: have ruffled liberal feathers in the United States by showing 193 00:11:54,057 --> 00:11:56,897 Speaker 2: that they're ready to crack down on crime and get 194 00:11:56,937 --> 00:12:00,297 Speaker 2: serious about a positive relationship with the United States. I 195 00:12:00,337 --> 00:12:03,657 Speaker 2: think the next move with regard to Mexico is going 196 00:12:03,697 --> 00:12:07,777 Speaker 2: to have a real strong signal sent to Cuba and 197 00:12:07,897 --> 00:12:12,217 Speaker 2: other parts of the region. And frankly, Canada should wake 198 00:12:12,297 --> 00:12:15,337 Speaker 2: up a bit, given that Canada has has rested on 199 00:12:15,377 --> 00:12:19,337 Speaker 2: its laurels that we are dependent on energy from them, 200 00:12:19,657 --> 00:12:24,017 Speaker 2: and uh, if we have a new relationship with Venezuela, 201 00:12:24,097 --> 00:12:29,657 Speaker 2: where that black gold is flowing into our markets and refineries. 202 00:12:29,897 --> 00:12:31,857 Speaker 2: We're less dependent on Canada and we could have a 203 00:12:31,897 --> 00:12:36,257 Speaker 2: tougher negotiating position, and they'll kick themselves for not seeing 204 00:12:36,617 --> 00:12:37,777 Speaker 2: the Excel pipeline through. 205 00:12:38,097 --> 00:12:41,697 Speaker 1: I think we find the headline for this podcast coming 206 00:12:42,297 --> 00:12:44,977 Speaker 1: out of nowhere here, but I like it. Watch your ass. 207 00:12:45,017 --> 00:12:50,657 Speaker 1: Canada says exactly, you better better, You better to check yourself. 208 00:12:52,817 --> 00:12:56,057 Speaker 1: Forget about Russia and China. It's Canada that these Anyway, 209 00:12:56,057 --> 00:12:57,937 Speaker 1: we'll come back into that action because I do want 210 00:12:57,937 --> 00:12:59,937 Speaker 1: to know and seriousness what you think about Russia, China 211 00:12:59,977 --> 00:13:02,257 Speaker 1: and others who are observing this situation. But our sponsor 212 00:13:02,297 --> 00:13:04,777 Speaker 1: here is Birch Gold Group. 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Claim your 233 00:13:57,977 --> 00:14:01,457 Speaker 1: eligibility today text buck Do ninety eight, ninety eight, ninety eight. 234 00:14:01,617 --> 00:14:03,617 Speaker 1: All right, mister Yates, it's like a little bit of 235 00:14:03,617 --> 00:14:08,937 Speaker 1: around the horn here, responses changes, strategic setbacks or advantages 236 00:14:09,497 --> 00:14:12,497 Speaker 1: when it comes to Venezuela, let's start with let's start 237 00:14:12,497 --> 00:14:17,977 Speaker 1: with what Russia sees out of this, if anything, Well. 238 00:14:17,897 --> 00:14:22,057 Speaker 2: Number one, I'd say a lot of mostly liberal commentators 239 00:14:22,097 --> 00:14:25,017 Speaker 2: made the mistake of imagining that Putin or Cgenping or 240 00:14:25,057 --> 00:14:27,817 Speaker 2: any of these guys really care at all about the 241 00:14:27,977 --> 00:14:32,057 Speaker 2: international law or the United Nations. It's basically a forum 242 00:14:32,097 --> 00:14:35,737 Speaker 2: for them to bloviate. After all, Russia chaired the emergency 243 00:14:35,737 --> 00:14:38,777 Speaker 2: meeting on the invasion of Ukraine. That's how useful and 244 00:14:38,857 --> 00:14:42,457 Speaker 2: relevant that forum is, and so they'll agitate a bit. 245 00:14:42,777 --> 00:14:46,897 Speaker 2: I don't think it changes a lot of Moscow's calculation 246 00:14:47,377 --> 00:14:52,497 Speaker 2: with regard to the offerings on the ceasefire with Ukraine, 247 00:14:52,697 --> 00:14:56,777 Speaker 2: other than President Trump does burnish his reputation of Look, 248 00:14:56,857 --> 00:14:59,617 Speaker 2: I'm willing to sit down and be open to a deal, 249 00:15:00,017 --> 00:15:03,337 Speaker 2: but you better freaking make it. Drag it along with me, 250 00:15:03,457 --> 00:15:07,257 Speaker 2: and I am not afraid to use leverage and power 251 00:15:07,417 --> 00:15:10,977 Speaker 2: at my discretion and you just might feel it. So 252 00:15:11,577 --> 00:15:15,697 Speaker 2: if there's a way to change Putin's calculus, maybe that's 253 00:15:15,737 --> 00:15:19,097 Speaker 2: in there, but I wouldn't give that heavy weight. But 254 00:15:19,217 --> 00:15:23,417 Speaker 2: I think that this really did hit at China's calculations 255 00:15:23,457 --> 00:15:26,297 Speaker 2: in some more significant ways. If you look at what 256 00:15:26,337 --> 00:15:30,937 Speaker 2: the administration has done the designation of the cartels as 257 00:15:31,137 --> 00:15:35,617 Speaker 2: terrorist organizations. Those cartels have been the primary distributors and 258 00:15:35,697 --> 00:15:39,537 Speaker 2: money laundering organizations for the fentanyl trade that China's been 259 00:15:39,657 --> 00:15:43,497 Speaker 2: involved in. That's ding number one. We went after their 260 00:15:43,617 --> 00:15:46,857 Speaker 2: role in the Panama Canal. That project is incomplete, but 261 00:15:46,937 --> 00:15:49,097 Speaker 2: at least planted the flag. That was the first place 262 00:15:49,377 --> 00:15:52,857 Speaker 2: the Secretary of Rubio went as Secretary of State, very 263 00:15:52,897 --> 00:15:56,377 Speaker 2: different trajectory from his predecessors, but it planted the flag 264 00:15:56,417 --> 00:15:59,057 Speaker 2: in our hemisphere in a really strategic place that Chinese 265 00:15:59,097 --> 00:16:01,497 Speaker 2: thought they were having some advantage in this Venezuela move. 266 00:16:01,857 --> 00:16:05,057 Speaker 2: China has been using technical and strategic advantage. They want 267 00:16:05,297 --> 00:16:08,177 Speaker 2: to be able to have diversified oil supply. They like 268 00:16:08,497 --> 00:16:10,777 Speaker 2: having a base of operation that it's close to the 269 00:16:10,897 --> 00:16:13,697 Speaker 2: US and can kind of muck around in our hood, 270 00:16:14,297 --> 00:16:16,737 Speaker 2: and they have done so, and so really in some 271 00:16:16,777 --> 00:16:20,537 Speaker 2: ways it's degraded some of the leverage and disruption options 272 00:16:20,577 --> 00:16:22,857 Speaker 2: that China might have had if the balloon were to 273 00:16:22,897 --> 00:16:24,617 Speaker 2: go up in the Taiwan Straits, where they might have 274 00:16:24,697 --> 00:16:27,857 Speaker 2: pressured us to worry more about our near abroad and 275 00:16:27,977 --> 00:16:30,937 Speaker 2: pull back from supporting people in the First island chain 276 00:16:30,977 --> 00:16:32,297 Speaker 2: of Asia. 277 00:16:32,457 --> 00:16:36,857 Speaker 1: Almost seems remarkable, I think when people understand how much 278 00:16:37,577 --> 00:16:41,577 Speaker 1: the oil that was going out. Obviously Cuba is very 279 00:16:41,617 --> 00:16:43,737 Speaker 1: close by, and so that you could understand how that 280 00:16:43,777 --> 00:16:46,897 Speaker 1: relationship comes about. You got two commis that are a 281 00:16:46,937 --> 00:16:52,497 Speaker 1: short boat ride apart, but that Russia, China, Iran are 282 00:16:52,537 --> 00:16:58,617 Speaker 1: all involved in oil buying and the and oil access 283 00:16:58,657 --> 00:17:01,937 Speaker 1: when it comes to Venezuela, I think that seems kinnter too, 284 00:17:02,137 --> 00:17:05,017 Speaker 1: especially in the case of Russia, which has tremendous oil 285 00:17:05,057 --> 00:17:08,937 Speaker 1: reserves itself, but it's fungible, it's global, it's an asset, 286 00:17:09,097 --> 00:17:12,337 Speaker 1: and they're they're able to buy it because they don't 287 00:17:12,337 --> 00:17:14,457 Speaker 1: care about our sanctions, right, they buy it at cut 288 00:17:14,497 --> 00:17:15,217 Speaker 1: rate prices. 289 00:17:16,137 --> 00:17:19,377 Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's kind of the point, is that number 290 00:17:19,417 --> 00:17:24,377 Speaker 2: one Venezuela has a much larger proven supply than people remember. 291 00:17:24,737 --> 00:17:28,577 Speaker 2: Somehow it's just sort of forgotten as an OPEC member, 292 00:17:29,257 --> 00:17:34,697 Speaker 2: but has a very substantial proven reserve. And the other 293 00:17:34,777 --> 00:17:38,097 Speaker 2: thing is it's been critical to any form of sanctions busting, 294 00:17:38,857 --> 00:17:43,097 Speaker 2: whether it's Iran, Russia or China. When sanctions are threatened 295 00:17:43,217 --> 00:17:48,217 Speaker 2: or imposed are more cooperative allies like Saudi Arabia, United 296 00:17:48,417 --> 00:17:52,097 Speaker 2: Arab Emirates and others will occasionally pull back from the 297 00:17:52,137 --> 00:17:55,177 Speaker 2: closeness of relations with those that have gotten themselves in trouble. 298 00:17:55,497 --> 00:17:59,457 Speaker 2: Venezuela was operating with its ghost fleet on the high seas, 299 00:17:59,457 --> 00:18:02,337 Speaker 2: which I think is the definition of piracy and why 300 00:18:02,377 --> 00:18:06,697 Speaker 2: we have navies. But it was the sanctions busting kind 301 00:18:06,737 --> 00:18:09,857 Speaker 2: of component of this to diversify that supply that matter. 302 00:18:10,057 --> 00:18:12,057 Speaker 2: It matters so much to China that they were looking 303 00:18:12,417 --> 00:18:15,697 Speaker 2: at digging an alternative to the Panama Canal through another 304 00:18:16,017 --> 00:18:20,137 Speaker 2: isthmus in Central America in order to have total control 305 00:18:20,457 --> 00:18:22,977 Speaker 2: in time of crisis. So yes, it was much more 306 00:18:23,017 --> 00:18:25,057 Speaker 2: important to our adversaries than people thought. 307 00:18:25,737 --> 00:18:29,017 Speaker 1: It deviates everybody. He's at the Heritage Foundation. Follow him 308 00:18:29,057 --> 00:18:33,177 Speaker 1: on social media on X and mister Yates, we'll be 309 00:18:33,177 --> 00:18:33,977 Speaker 1: talking to you again soon. 310 00:18:34,657 --> 00:18:35,937 Speaker 2: Thanks very much, Buck Pleasure