WEBVTT - Ukraine, Inflation, ETFs, and Adobe (Podcast) 0:00:00.760 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.560 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.120 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. We're gonna check in 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:25.640 with Kevin Brand. Kevin's a Defense policy ann also Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:27.480 I don't know Kevin, and I thought I knew everyone 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:30.200 at BI. That's because he just recently joined. He's at 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:34.559 twenty nine year Navy vetter. Whoa, I mean, what's up 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:38.160 with that? Kevin? Twenty nine years? Thank you for your service. Yeah, 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:40.360 thank you for your service. But twenty nine years, I mean, 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:42.360 you got it. You had to be the old guy, right, Yeah. 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:43.720 I couldn't figure out what I was gonna do when 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:47.120 I grew up. Kevin, You're you've been in this defense 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:51.080 game a long time in the Navy, with experience in 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:56.160 security strategy. You've got so much experience. When you look 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:58.960 back on this last year in Ukraine, what are some 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:01.600 of your key takeaways? Yeah, I tell you it's it's 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:03.200 really sad. You know, we here, we are one year 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:06.720 into the conflict, and this is a you know, a 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:09.680 war of choice by by mister Putin just to satisfy 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:12.320 his zone ego, kind of restore the borders of what 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:15.080 he sees as the former Soviet Empire, and he's caused, 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:17.319 you know, untold suffering on the country of Ukraine. We're 0:01:17.319 --> 0:01:21.440 talking about one trillion dollars in potential infrastructure repairs that 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:24.280 have to be done to the country, Over eight million refugees, 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:28.880 primarily in Poland and Germany, five million displaced persons, you know, 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:32.360 thousands of deaths, Yeah, hundreds of thousands of deaths on 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:36.480 both sides, all for really a war of choice, completely unnecessary, 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:43.160 just tragic. But my question, Kevin is who could possibly 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:45.280 see an end to this? I've seen, I've read so 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:47.920 many stories over the past few days about how this 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:49.440 war is going to end, what it's going to take 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:52.000 for this war to end, and I just can't imagine 0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:55.240 one year into it, people are willing to write that 0:01:55.400 --> 0:02:00.240 we were in Vietnam for at least seven or eight years, right, right, 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:04.880 we were in Afghanistan for thirteen years. Now they're different 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:08.400 they're all different situations. But Russia was in Afghanistan for 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:12.560 nine years during their conflict. Why would anybody think, especially 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:16.639 with Vladimir Putin, who acts to you know, somewhere between 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:22.799 you know, a megalomaniac dictator and a cornered animal, why 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:25.359 would anyone think he has any reason to get out 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:29.240 other than total loss for him. Yeah, I think that's 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.760 the difficulty here. I mean this is this is definitely 0:02:31.800 --> 0:02:34.600 a choice by Putin to have invaded Ukraine. I think 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:38.440 there's some difficulty associated with the US geopolitical position and 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:40.800 that of our Western allies that we didn't really be 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:44.160 more forceful in twenty fourteen during the annexation of Crimea. 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:48.160 I think that's set a precedent. Unfortunately, the precedent here 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:50.160 that is most important, and what I think is most 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:55.079 important for the international community, is upholding this standard that 0:02:55.160 --> 0:02:57.880 we're not going to allow countries to forcibly change borders, 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:02.560 to force their will on others by using military force. 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.919 That's an Interestion state, I think is galvanized Europe. I 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:07.800 think it's very positive to see NATO coming together the 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:10.720 you know, Finland and Sweden about ready to join NATO. 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:14.320 Turkey willing to reintertalks. That's positive. But as far as 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:16.799 what convinces Putin to a band of this, he has 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:20.880 to fundamentally be defeated on the battlefield first and foremost. 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:23.400 He needs to be defeated personally. I can't imagine that 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:26.120 he backs away from this until he's thrown out of 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:29.760 office or dies. Yeah, I think this is going to 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:32.920 be very difficult. If you look at mister Putin, he 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:35.760 seems to have secured his power base. He's definitely an oligarch, 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:40.480 you know, he's a dictator authoritarian government. Absent some sort 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:43.080 of popular revolt, it's going to be very difficult to 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:46.160 remove him from power. So the only way to stop 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:49.040 this invasion is mister Putin's internal calculation has to be 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:51.480 that he can no longer achieve his results, and that 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.920 means the West really has to provide for Ukrainians defense, 0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:58.640 and Ukraine must secure their borders and repel the Russian 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:03.160 from their territorial kevin Land space. What role do you 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:07.760 think China should play, will play, could play in the 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:11.680 netcoming year. Yeah, that's a great question. This is you know, 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:17.680 this is a very important international political contest. We have 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:21.800 authoritarian regimes out there revisionist powers who are wanting to 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:27.720 use force to achieve their national will. The West, the 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:30.039 international community has to stand up to that. When you 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:35.000 look at China ran to a lesser extent in North Korea. 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:38.840 The West has to galvanize international support to punish those 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:41.400 sort of behaviors. I think it's positive development that China 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:45.200 has so far not provided obstensibly lethal aid, but it 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:48.320 would be. It would be. One of the things I 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:50.200 think we need to see is China step up to 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.039 the plate and be a little bit more proactive besides 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:56.479 just offering a piece plan, be more proactive in pushing 0:04:56.520 --> 0:04:59.880 back against Russia, both in the United Nations Security Council 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:03.520 and sort of internationally public diplomacy. Peace boys. Hey, Kevin, 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:06.880 we also have Maria todayo joining us. She's Bloomberg Television. 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:10.440 She is reporting today live from Kiev. Lets live from Kiev. 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:12.800 Let's bring Maria in. Maria, thank you so much for 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:15.279 joining us. Um. I know you've spent a lot of 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:20.240 time in Kiev, in Poland on trains interacting with Ukrainians. 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:23.640 What's the mood today one year in what is their 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:32.560 level of resolve? Hopefully we have Maria, but sometimes she's 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:35.039 in war zone. Yeah, no, it doesn't sound well. First 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.559 of all, your microphones off, okay, thank you. And second 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:40.640 of all, we're we don't have Maria now. She is 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:45.719 in the capitol and it is Fortress city, so it 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:48.800 doesn't I don't think that we have any kind of 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.520 war zone issues, but we do have your typical global 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:56.480 telecommunications problems. Producer Eric mullis as we got her back. Maria. 0:05:56.920 --> 0:05:59.719 You have been after I think a seventeen hour train 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:04.320 reporting live from the capital of Ukraine, Kiev, and Paul 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:06.560 was wondering, you know, the people that you talk to 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:08.760 on the train, the people that you talk to in 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:13.080 the streets, what's what's there feeling? One Ye're in yes, 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.080 and listen. I have to apologize because I know the 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:17.880 lines are dropping, but really this is also part of it, 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:20.560 is the reality of it. And we're not even using 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:25.760 our real phones here pretty much for security essentially. I think, 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:29.440 to me, what is just incredible of the story is, 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:31.800 you know, you get on this train from Poland and 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:33.960 then you're making your way to Ukraine, and then at 0:06:34.000 --> 0:06:37.719 one point I catch myself thinking, wow, it's one am 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:39.440 in the morning. This train is full. You know, you're 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:43.360 in this little carriage with four other people, and then 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:45.599 it just hits you. You know, we're all women here. 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.440 And then at that point you ask why are you 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:51.160 going there to this women? And then what's your situation? 0:06:51.240 --> 0:06:53.240 And then they tell you, well, I'm either going to 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:55.359 see a relative where I'm going back to my husband, 0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:57.000 or I had to come to Poland because there is 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:59.680 no visa process in Ukraine. And that's when it really 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.560 hid to the men cannot leave. It's the women that 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.520 are going in and out to their country. A lot 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:09.160 of these world husbands are fighting or they expect that 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:12.840 they will be called to some extent to fight this year, 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:16.160 particularly in the spring. And then you get to Ukraine 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:18.960 and the reality hit too. You see the first man 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:21.480 actually that you interact for many hours, or all dressed 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:24.720 in military year. They ask for your papers for passports, 0:07:24.760 --> 0:07:26.280 they let you in, and then of course from that 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:28.400 point on you start to see the scenery. As you 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:32.560 enter kivs Bucha. We don't know the massacre that happened there. 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.320 Then you go into Rapine, which is just outside and 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:37.520 there was active fighting there, and that's when you really 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:41.320 realize the Russians were just so close to Kiev. Then 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:43.000 you see the airports that they had to blow up. 0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:45.680 Remember the initial plan from the Russians was to take 0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:51.000 hold of the airports and helicopter people from Belarus into Ukraine. 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:53.640 And that's the reality of the war. I think yesterday 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:57.600 for us on PubL the reality check. You see it firsthand, 0:07:57.640 --> 0:07:59.320 and you're on this train and the train next to 0:07:59.400 --> 0:08:01.800 you it's ready to send the weapons. And this is 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:04.040 a train that's really next to you as you're making 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:07.480 your way into Ukraine for seventeen hours. The airspace obviously 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:10.080 shut now for a year because of the missile strikes. 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:13.440 I think for today we heard already from Pricedent Lanski, 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:16.160 who was given out medals in the morning, to the 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:19.160 army again repeating the reason why we'll starts standing a 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:21.160 year later is because of our army and they have 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:24.800 beat in blood. So that I'm here, Slanski's here, is 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:27.280 the press that we're all here reporting this. It's because 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:29.760 of the huge fight that the army has put up 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:31.600 with a lot of weapons from the West. Sure, but 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:33.960 the reality is the soldiers that are dying there. And 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.360 the one thing that also really caught my eyes when 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:39.440 you look at Ukrainian TV the way they present this 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:41.839 is not the one year mark. It's not the one 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:46.720 year anniversary. What they say is one year now to victory. 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:51.200 All right, Maria Today, reporting live from Kiev. I know 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:54.880 you spoke with the mayor this morning, Vitali Klitschko, So 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:56.760 I want to talk to you about that later. We 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.040 can get you back on the program. And then Kevin 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:02.240 Brand he is Defense Policy and Bloomberg Intelligence, We're going 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:05.120 to get you back as well, because this is obviously 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:09.000 such an important issue geo politically, and we definitely want 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:12.679 to get all caught up on the one year anniversary 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:18.200 of this tragic war. How do we keep supplying Ukraine? 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.839 It seems like they're just going through munitions as you 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:24.160 would expect. Do we and the West have the capability 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:28.960 to continue to replenish their bullets and shells and tanks 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:30.800 and all that kind of stuff. Well, I think for 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:32.960 the short term absolutely, you know, we really don't have 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.760 a choice in this matter. It's sort of an existential 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:39.160 threat to Ukraine, and really the only thing that's bolstering 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:42.800 their defense forces is the Western weapons that are flowing in, 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:45.440 including some of the former Soviet Bloc countries that still 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:48.559 have some Eastern former Soviet sort of slide weapons that 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:50.360 we're able to do to kind of keep them in 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:52.400 the game. But that's the critical thing as we look 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:56.000 forward at this, you know, barring a return of the 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:58.480 Russian advance or that if they're able to get better 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:01.080 and moved into territory, what we really have to prepare 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.440 for is the Ukrainian counter offensive, which is probably going 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.520 to kick off later to spring, and so the importance 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:09.680 of getting those arms and weapons into Ukraine and get 0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.000 them trained up ready to use them before that spring 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:13.800 offensive kicks off is kind of the number one problem 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:18.840 right now. I imagine that the US military just has 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:24.079 amazing capabilities in terms of supply chain management, and we 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:27.320 have the tools to get everything there right I mean, 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:30.640 we have more aircraft carriers and anybody else than everybody 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:35.079 else in the world combined, I believe. So is that 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:38.400 what's happening right now? Are we utilizing the Army and 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:41.000 the Navy to get them the gear that they need 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:43.280 as quickly as possible. Well, I think you've got a 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:46.600 combination of a couple things. So we're energizing the contractor base. 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:49.760 There's lots of security assistance dollars that are on contract 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:52.440 right now to get industry to ramp up production both 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:55.000 to resupply the US arsenal. Plus we'll also have the 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:58.440 ability to move weapons from the US arsenal these presidential 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:01.640 drawdowns that you've heard about, and move actually US weapons 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.520 stocks in through the supply chain and get those two Ukraine, 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:06.880 not to mention what's already the NATO countries are providing, 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:09.720 So there's enough arms and ammunitions to keep Ukraine's supply, 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:11.880 but we are starting to dip down into US and 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:17.079 NATO inventories. How concerned are you, Kevin about I mean, 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:20.320 this is clearly a well in some ways, it's a 0:11:20.360 --> 0:11:25.200 proxy war between Russia and NATO. Right, How concerned are 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:30.079 you that that escalates into a hot war because I 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:34.120 feel like we've been watching China, but it looks like 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:37.199 this could be an an active threat that happens even 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:40.640 even sooner. No, this is serious concern. I think everyone 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:42.520 is watching that closely, and there's always a risk of 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:45.480 escalation when you get in and Russia has been clearly 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:47.760 signaling that they're unhappy with what the West is doing. 0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:52.040 But you know, I think the West has made its 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:54.760 position clear. This is about the defense of Ukraine. This 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:59.520 is about Russia's unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, the violation of 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:02.360 territory borders, and this is what the international community stands 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:05.440 up for. Right non interference in the international affairs of others, 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.439 no forceful movement of borders by use of military force. 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:12.760 And so these are core international principles that are at 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:15.839 stake here, and the West really does need to step up, Kevin, 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:18.160 I guess in terms of stepping up, the next big, 0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:24.440 big leap would be providing air cover, air force jets 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.480 F sixteens. What are the pros and cons that you 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:30.800 think our leaders are weighing right now, and how do 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:32.600 you think that's what we'll play out? Well, I think 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:34.440 you hit the nail on the head earlier. There's always 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:36.280 a risk of escalation. You know, what sort of weapon 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:38.640 systems do we bring? What is Russer's response to that? 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.720 I think we've had sort of an incremental approach to this, 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:45.640 increasing arms, longer range, arms, more lethal aid. I think 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:48.200 air support is next. When you think about a Ukrainian 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.560 offensive that's upcoming, you really have to have a combination 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:56.000 of infantry supported by armor, artillery and air support, not 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.319 just unmanned airs and sort of reconnaissance because golos you 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:01.679 need to have tact fighters that can provide close air 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.040 support to those troops. So I think it's inevitable. The 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.320 question is just a matter of time before the West 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:09.319 commits to that. Do we always have to pre announce 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:15.480 this stuff? Is that a part of, you know, avoiding escalation? 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:17.920 We say we're going to do it, we float that balloon, 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:20.560 and then we eventually do. Or is it possible that 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:24.520 we give them give the Ukrainians fighter jets to use 0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:27.640 in the offensive without telling anybody and upping the element 0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:32.440 of surprise. It's possible, But you know, these sort of 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:36.480 deliberations are so complex. Inside the National Security Council, they're 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:38.400 weighing the pros and cons are looking at the risk 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:43.480 of escalation. It's very, very hard to hide these moves. 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:45.959 So even if we didn't announce them publicly, which I 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.600 think would be a mistake, but even if we didn't, 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:51.000 Russia would clearly know that we're doing it. The information 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:53.920 would get out. So I think it's really the deliberate 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.319 process by which the NSC and the White House, the 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:59.679 Administration needs to go through, work with our NATO partners, 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:01.720 and then term of what the best air assets to 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:06.440 provide are from an intelligence perspective, Kevin, how do you 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:08.640 what do you believe or how good do you think 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.240 our capabilities are in that part of the world. And 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:16.160 are we providing intelligence support for the Ukrainians? Absolutely, I 0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:18.240 think that's one of the key things that we're actually 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:21.600 providing the Ukrainians besides the arms in Western is that 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:25.520 intelligence support. I mean, they clearly know the adversary better 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:27.720 than any of us. They're on the ground, they're there, 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.520 But the non technical means that we have the satellite 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:35.080 sort of surveillance, the overflight capability that we have the UAVs, 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:39.240 we are providing pretty critical intelligence that helps them tactically 0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:42.240 and operationally make decisions on the ground as to where 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:45.480 they need to defend, where Russia is massing troops, where 0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:48.000 they need to reallocate resources. And I think that's absolutely 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:52.119 critical to Ukraine's defense. You got your master's National Security 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:57.960 policy from the National War College US Naval War College. 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:03.040 How much did they talk about China then and how 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:04.800 much of a threat do you think China is now? 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.880 Because I know an Air Force general recently said we 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:11.280 could have war with them in twenty twenty five. Absolutely, 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:14.120 so China, China and Russia. I mean China to the 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.720 most part has been sort of the premiere up and 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:22.040 coming long term strategic competitor for the United States least 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:25.920 going back fifteen twenty years in military parlance. The national 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.320 security establishment really focused on that more recently in the 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:31.320 last ten years. But absolutely that's the up and coming 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.600 challenge that we've got from a great power competition perspective. Hey, Kevin, 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:38.440 we're fortune once again have Maria todayo joining us live 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:40.960 from Kiev, so we want to go to her. Maria, 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:43.160 thanks so much for you know, dialing, and we know 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:47.400 it's hectic there. I believe you recently sat down with 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.560 the mayor of Fatal. Yeah, the mayor of Kiev. Could 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:53.120 you tell us just gives a little color about what 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.600 you learn from your discussion. Yeah, and he was here 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:59.480 this morning with us a clitch car. Obviously, you know 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:03.200 the two others. At this point, they've become something of 0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:06.760 a popular icon here and they have been also in 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:09.280 a number of European countries because they speak for German, 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:11.880 and they have it pretty smart in fact, to reach 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:14.440 out to Germany and speak in Germany and reach out 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.160 to the German media because they knew that a lot 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.600 of the weapons, the key to unlock the heavy weapons 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:22.880 would be in Berlin. Which also speaks to the fact 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.960 that when you look overall at the Ukrainian government and 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.440 Zelenski's doing this in real time, he was doing a 0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:31.200 press conference a lot of international media. When you look 0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:34.160 at the foreign minister who's speaking today at the United Nations, 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:38.560 it's almost this new generation of Ukrainian politicians who get 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:40.880 very well that they need to have a big media 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:43.640 presence and that they need to gather message across and 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:47.480 this was something that for Zelenski was obvious for day one. 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.080 If they wanted to really survive, they needed to make 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:53.360 this a global story. And it has been now for 0:16:53.480 --> 0:17:00.720 a year now we are seeing pictures presences like the 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:04.520 cell the cell phone call has dropped, and as Maria 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:08.320 told us, you know, she and U producer Oliver Krook 0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:14.400 traveled into Ukraine. They had to uh leave their actual 0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:17.080 you know, personal cell phones and business cell phones at 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:21.760 the border, so they took in m communication devices that 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:25.879 are not necessarily reliable. Hopefully we can get her back. 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:30.159 But she was talking about the importance of you know, 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:34.199 the clich goes have have been huge Kevin in in 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:39.080 building support as well as obviously Zelenski. Do you think 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:44.160 that that support still is the popular support still um 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:46.679 as big as it was when this war started a 0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:50.600 year ago? Has it waned at all? No? You know, 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:53.040 it's always difficult to tell, and that's always a risk 0:17:53.080 --> 0:17:55.679 that you lose popular support and backing and that you know, 0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:59.119 the implications go with that in a democratic uh, you know, 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.479 environment is difficult in order to maintain support. But I 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:06.119 would say, actually, what we've seen as a strengthening the 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:08.920 uniting of NATO and the uniting of Europe behind this 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:12.640 and behind the international principles involved. So I actually look 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:15.119 at this as a very positive sort of step forward. 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:19.439 And Kevin, realistically, what do other NATO countries, what can 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:21.920 they provide? What are they providing? How much can we 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:27.760 as a you know, really depend upon them for real material? Yeah? 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:29.280 So I think there's two things. There's one, there's the 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:32.639 international support, the aligning of NATO sort of the getting 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:35.000 back to basics as to what the alliance is for, 0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:38.000 and that's absolutely critical. The second thing is this stepping 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:40.960 up in the defense budgets the nations across the NATO 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:43.240 are coming back to their two percent pledges. They're plussing 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:45.720 up their defense budgets. That's great for the Alliance. The 0:18:45.800 --> 0:18:47.879 third thing, though, to your point directly, is they have 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:51.760 tons of arms and ammunition available, especially small arms. That 0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:55.600 is critical for the infantry sup fight infantry fight. They 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:58.320 have the ability to provide non technical means. They have 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.720 the ability to provide logistic support. They have the ability 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:03.760 to provide humanitarian support. All that comes together, I think 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:06.960 and provides a very important backing for Ukraine. All Right, 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:09.320 we have Maria today, O back. I believe Maria, if 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:13.199 you're there, talk to us about the push for fighter jets. 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:18.480 I know that Ukraine has been not only behind obviously publicly, 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:21.880 but also behind the scenes on a daily basis trying 0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:25.440 to get air support. Yeah. Absolutely. And you know, Matt, 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:27.960 when you listen to the Ukrainian FOREM Minister at the 0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:31.520 Midriku level, who's just before the United Nations, he says, 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:34.919 Ukraine when this board started had a checklist almost of 0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:36.760 the seven things that they needed, the seven type of 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:39.040 weapons that they needed, and he says, at this point 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:43.040 we've crossed six. The red lines have been crossed repeatedly. 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:45.840 Remember there was major fear of tanks. And funnily enough, 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.399 they're now making their way from Poland into Ukraine. And 0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:51.080 it's funny. When I was on the train, see that 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:54.760 in the train to Poland to Ukraine, there's another lane, 0:19:54.920 --> 0:19:57.440 huge lane where all of this equipment is just crossing 0:19:57.520 --> 0:19:59.439 the border. And that's when it really hits you that 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:02.480 this is real and these weapons are massive. They're enormous. 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.439 Seeing the one thing they need is alluded to is 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.040 the fighter jets. This is still an open debate and 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.000 Ukrainians will say the rational for this is that they 0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:13.399 want to make a big push to get back essentially 0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:16.040 the twenty percent around the country that Russia right now 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:18.359 controls and the east and going down to the south. 0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:21.560 And to do that, they argue, you need to have 0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:24.720 a position from the ear that allows your soldiers to 0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:27.879 move in freely and obviously with less of confrontation with 0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:29.679 trips on the ground. And they also say the long 0:20:29.760 --> 0:20:33.280 range missiles also do that. They provide cover and support 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:36.360 two soldiers that are on the ground. It's very difficult 0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:39.160 to make inroads if you don't have the backup from 0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:42.240 aviation and the long range missiles this is an ongoing story, 0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:44.080 but they continue to push for it. And if you 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:46.120 look at the track record, you know, Matt I would 0:20:46.160 --> 0:20:48.040 not be surprised if they get them again. They had 0:20:48.040 --> 0:20:52.400 seven things they wanted, they have six for the time being. Hey, Maria, 0:20:52.840 --> 0:20:55.400 can you give us the latest what you're hearing from 0:20:55.440 --> 0:21:01.840 government officials about casualties, casualty rates, expectations. Kind of because 0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:05.320 we're again one year into this. Look, this is the 0:21:05.320 --> 0:21:09.040 biggest secret and you understand why for Ukrainians to put 0:21:09.040 --> 0:21:13.000 out a number of dead soldiers, to put out a 0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:16.399 total number of population that here we all know the 0:21:16.480 --> 0:21:19.840 number is probably great and it is a big number. 0:21:19.880 --> 0:21:22.520 And this is the secrecy that goes on in every 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:25.440 war in US is Ukraine, in any war, the act 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:27.800 of government will do everything that I can to make 0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:36.159 sure that those numbers be precisive for that effective moral. Understandably, 0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:38.600 we've lost Maria yet again. So it's just kind of 0:21:38.600 --> 0:21:42.000