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Speaker 1: Always wondered what me mom meant when she said the

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Speaker 1: longer you put off the truth, the truer the truth becomes.

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Speaker 1: But I really just think she was talking about college

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Speaker 1: football because think about this. So we've seen some teams

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Speaker 1: get upset, We've seen some surprising results. We've seen some

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Speaker 1: players underperform, overperform, and then we've seen others that will

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Speaker 1: end up doing the same thing. They just haven't been

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Speaker 1: put through the meat grinder yet, and they are. Some

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Speaker 1: as early as this weekend were jam packed hiatapa splendid

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Speaker 1: downtown Nashville, Tennessee. On this Tuesday night, September thirtieth, the

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Speaker 1: year of Our Lord, twenty twenty five. Yes, friends, that

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Speaker 1: is Tuesday night. It is prediction night around here. Whom

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Speaker 1: stood offunkt. The Vanderbilt Commodores are playing in a game

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Speaker 1: that has attracted College Game Day, and not for some

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Speaker 1: novelty reason, not like the time they went to Amherst.

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Speaker 1: You know, this is the real deal. This is a

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Speaker 1: top twenty match up at Alabama. We'll do that one.

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Speaker 1: We'll do miamifsu will do Texas Florida. You know, is

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Speaker 1: there really a whole lot of difference between those teams.

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Speaker 1: The model says yes, but the model again favors Texas

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Speaker 1: against the Ravens against the Chiefs against the Bills. So

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Speaker 1: we'll see. We have to do a very very rare

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Speaker 1: September late September mood update, mood tracker type situation for

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Speaker 1: our friends in State College, including one out in the

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Speaker 1: production truck right now. Yea, the closest the producer Jesse

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Speaker 1: has ever come to just flat out being featured on

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Speaker 1: the show is tonight and not a moment too soon.

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Speaker 1: Thousands upon thousands of dollars from the Pate State Endowment

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Speaker 1: have gone to Jesse's therapy over the past seventy two

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Speaker 1: hours or so. It's tough. It's tough around Penn State circles.

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Speaker 1: So we got that, got some really mind boggling facts

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Speaker 1: about the transfer. I got some best bets. We got

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of stuff. We're jam packed, and they're

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Speaker 1: watching us in San Angelo, Texas, and Lawrence, Kansas, in

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Speaker 1: Salt Lake City, Utah, and Blue Ridge, Georgia, and wherever

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Speaker 1: you're watching and listening. Listen. I got our data report today.

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Speaker 1: Our numbers insane, So thank you. I'm not begging you anything.

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Speaker 1: I'm not asking you to contribute a dime. All I'm

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Speaker 1: asking you to do is subscribe to the channel. About

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Speaker 1: fifty percent of our viewership is still unsubscribed. I'm told

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Speaker 1: I've got it on good authority that some of you

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Speaker 1: think you're subscribed and you're not. It doesn't cost anything,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't sign you up for anything, It doesn't even

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Speaker 1: matter to you. It just helps us. So check on

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Speaker 1: YouTube or pod see if you're subscribed. If you're not,

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Speaker 1: click it. That's it. Then go get your mom's phone

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Speaker 1: and do it for her, and your sister's phone and

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Speaker 1: do it for her, and all's well. That ends well,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter, it doesn't hurt them, and what they

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Speaker 1: don't know can't hurt them. So let's dive into the

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Speaker 1: show tonight. Looking forward to this, been looking forward to

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Speaker 1: this show since the last show Miami, Florida State Saturday night,

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Speaker 1: seven thirty Eastern on ABC. This is amazing, and I

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Speaker 1: think it's being overlooked a little bit. Some people are

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Speaker 1: missing it badly. Here this game presented by Quick Trip.

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Speaker 1: We are going to the game. We will be there.

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Speaker 1: We will be on the sideline, freshly renovated venue down there,

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Speaker 1: but still with the mystique of a legendary venue that

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Speaker 1: has hosted iconic matchups between these teams. See when I

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Speaker 1: was a youth rolling around Georgia, and even though I

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Speaker 1: was in Columbus, there was a huge contingent of Florida

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Speaker 1: State fans. I myself wore a Florida State starter jacket

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Speaker 1: to school once upon a time. Why well, not because

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Speaker 1: my dad played there or my mom went there or anything.

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Speaker 1: It was because of Bobby Bowden. It was because of

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Speaker 1: what they were doing. When I was a little kid.

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Speaker 1: It was a big deal, man. I mean, Florida State

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Speaker 1: football was kind of infectious. It kind of took over

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Speaker 1: the South even when Canel played there. I mean, think

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Speaker 1: about all they had going against them with that, and

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Speaker 1: people still liked them, and I did too. And then

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Speaker 1: the rival re waned and it hasn't mattered nationally a

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Speaker 1: whole lot. And I this was tracking to be this

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Speaker 1: huge blow up game, and then FSU lost to Virginia

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Speaker 1: Friday night. I feel like a lot of the luster

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Speaker 1: was lost on the game. And I have no idea why.

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Speaker 1: I have no idea whatsoever why this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a knockdown, drag out. You're thinking to yourself up. Florida

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Speaker 1: State got exposed. Miami's gonna roll. Guys. The line's four

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Speaker 1: and a half on the game if Aduel Miami minus

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Speaker 1: four and a half. So we still don't know what

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Speaker 1: we don't know, And what I mean is we're heading

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Speaker 1: into what week six? Now, I think Miami hasn't left

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Speaker 1: home really yet. Miami is in a situation where there

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Speaker 1: are parts of them we don't know about Florida State,

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Speaker 1: there are parts of them we found out about, but

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Speaker 1: now they get to answer for it. We just saw

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Speaker 1: Bama go beat Georgia on the road a few weeks

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Speaker 1: after we saw them get exposed on the road. So

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Speaker 1: that just goes to show you in college football the

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Speaker 1: only constant is change, and the hallmark of the best

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Speaker 1: teams is especially when they get knocked down, they are

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Speaker 1: all the more incentivized to continue to look for answers

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Speaker 1: and sometimes they find them. And you know what, Florida

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Speaker 1: State just lost a game against Virginia. What if wild

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Speaker 1: theory as we start the prediction here, what if they

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Speaker 1: change some things up, What if they learn some things.

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Speaker 1: What if taste in that blood of their own, what

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Speaker 1: if that does something to the fighting spirit, the competitive

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Speaker 1: character of that team. Well, strength on strength here, that's

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Speaker 1: how I see this game. Florida State has to run

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Speaker 1: it and stay committed to it. You are not gonna

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Speaker 1: gash Miami. A whole lot just not gonna happen. Even

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Speaker 1: as I'm saying that's one of the keys to this game,

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Speaker 1: I'm not counting on Florida State running up and down

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Speaker 1: the field. This is the number two rushing offense in

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Speaker 1: the country. That's true, So well, why don't you expect

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Speaker 1: them to run up and down the field. Because Miami's

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Speaker 1: got a top ten run d it's ranked number eight.

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Speaker 1: It's better than number eight. There are not seven rush

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Speaker 1: defenses in the country better than Miami. Because Miami's already

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Speaker 1: seen Florida and seen Notre Dame and even USF like,

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Speaker 1: that's all baked into Miami's stack profile. Whereas some of

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Speaker 1: you have played glorified high school teams, so you patted

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Speaker 1: your stats a little bit. Florida State hasn't faced the

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Speaker 1: top fifty run defense yet, so they've stacked up a

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Speaker 1: lot of really good, you know, numeric games. I haven't

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Speaker 1: seen them go against this. Here's the big question. The

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Speaker 1: big question is do we look at the crowbar theory

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Speaker 1: being a possibility here, meaning you face such a better

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Speaker 1: front than you have that you can't scale accordingly. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: am I concerned about that? Yeah, I'm concerned about that

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Speaker 1: a little bit. However, you know, I look at the

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Speaker 1: unique challenge that maybe a Gusmuson composed to you. I

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Speaker 1: look at the use of tempo here more than Miami's

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Speaker 1: probably seen from anyone that could competitively match them talent wise,

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Speaker 1: like FSU can, like USF couldn't do that even on

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Speaker 1: their best day. They couldn't do that. And Florida runs

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Speaker 1: one play about every two or three minutes. So I

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Speaker 1: wasn't counting on it there either. They just got to

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Speaker 1: scale this against Miami, and they have to because if

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Speaker 1: they don't, everything about Tommy Castellanos becomes kind of a

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Speaker 1: moot point. So Florida state right now six point seven

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Speaker 1: yards per rush. That's really good. Okay, I'll take like

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Speaker 1: four and three quarter, I'll take five. That's fine. I

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Speaker 1: can win with that. Miami, though, twenty one percent of

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Speaker 1: the runs against that defense have gone for zero yards

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Speaker 1: or less. That's one out of every five times you

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Speaker 1: run against them, you're getting tackled at or behind the

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Speaker 1: line of scrimmage. So I'm concerned about it because if

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Speaker 1: they can't, If Florida State cannot move the ball at

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Speaker 1: least to a minimum baseline of effectiveness, then it really

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter what else happens. The only way at that

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Speaker 1: point they're winning that is special teams or a bunch

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Speaker 1: of turnovers that they force, because what I don't think

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Speaker 1: they're equipped to do is win throwing the ball. And

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Speaker 1: the reason I say that is I look at Tommy

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Speaker 1: Castellanos throughout his career. When he throws for two hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty yards or more, his teams are one in five.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of counterintuitive. You would think the more passing yardage,

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Speaker 1: the better they do. No, the more passing yardage it

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Speaker 1: normally means a little bit more desperation, but it also

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Speaker 1: makes you really, really prone to bad decisions. And they're

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Speaker 1: good athletes, good athletes, new additions, and good athletes in

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Speaker 1: this Miami secondary. So they either do that or they

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Speaker 1: bust explosives. What I don't see. So what I say

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Speaker 1: when that, when I say what I mean when I

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Speaker 1: say that is they either sustain a ground game or

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Speaker 1: they bust some really big explosive like touchdown type pass plays.

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Speaker 1: It's unlikely in the run game that they bust a

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Speaker 1: bunch of explosives. It's more likely in the past game.

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Speaker 1: Florida State is second in the country and passes of

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Speaker 1: thirty plus yards and forty plus yards. Miami's secondary has

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Speaker 1: been tested, but it's been tested a little differently here,

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Speaker 1: and I just wonder, Okay, there's still enough newness, there's

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Speaker 1: still enough intrigue and miss I haven't watched that team

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Speaker 1: go on the road, really, I haven't watched those new

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Speaker 1: pieces in that secondary get tested the unique way that

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Speaker 1: Malsan's offense can test them. Maybe just maybe there's some

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Speaker 1: leaks that get sprung there. So those are really the

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Speaker 1: two ways that Florida State scores here. I don't think

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Speaker 1: the intermediate pass game is going to be all that

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Speaker 1: much of a threat here. I don't think that they're

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Speaker 1: going to sustain these ten and twelve and thirteen play

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Speaker 1: drives like what Bama didding is Georgia last week is

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Speaker 1: not what Florida State's gonna do if they're going to

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Speaker 1: win this, all right, So that's the FSU side. On

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Speaker 1: the Miami side kind of more simple. They just ask

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Speaker 1: a basic question to tail as old as time. It's

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Speaker 1: a question as old as time, are you man enough?

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Speaker 1: Not the Sheryl Crow song, which is are you strong

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Speaker 1: enough to be my man? That will not be asked

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Speaker 1: in the Miami Florida State game Saturday night or things

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Speaker 1: have gone horribly arrived. But what could be asked and

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Speaker 1: what will have to be answered by Florida State is

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Speaker 1: are you man enough? Are you tough enough? Can you

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Speaker 1: stand up to the challenge? However you want to fill

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Speaker 1: that blank because that offensive line is built to travel,

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Speaker 1: Those tailbacks are built to travel, and you gotta play

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Speaker 1: them honest because if you don't, you got a quarterback

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Speaker 1: at Miami that can beat you. You got good receiving

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Speaker 1: options that can beat you. Virginia ran for two hundred

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Speaker 1: plus on Florida State. Something's got to change there because

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Speaker 1: you gotta at least make Miami open up the playbook

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Speaker 1: a little bit. You can't just let them lean on you.

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Speaker 1: You can't get to the end of the first quarter

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Speaker 1: and have us all collectively realizing, oh wow, if they

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Speaker 1: can do that, they don't even need to do this, this,

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Speaker 1: and this. Even though they can do this this and

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Speaker 1: this FSU's key player here. It's not a mystery. If

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Speaker 1: we were projecting this game in July, we would have said,

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Speaker 1: Douche Robinson, that's the guy they're gonna have to have shine.

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Speaker 1: He's got more catches in yards than their next three

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Speaker 1: receiving options combined, I think right now, and confirmed via

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Speaker 1: the graphic there. So that's the FSU side. What about

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Speaker 1: Carson Beck, though we made it, I've almost eight or

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Speaker 1: nine minutes into this haven't really mentioned Carson Beck. Well,

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Speaker 1: he's there, he's there. I just wonder, you know, he's

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Speaker 1: thrown three picks so far this year. It concerns me

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Speaker 1: a little bit. Yeah, it's again, Carson Beck's played a

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Speaker 1: lot of football, so I don't think the environment's gonna

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Speaker 1: rattle him all that much. But what could happen is

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Speaker 1: maybe somehow, some way, Florida State schematically takes Miami's fastball

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Speaker 1: away from him. And that doesn't mean Miami's gonna get

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Speaker 1: stuffed running the ball, but maybe you know you want

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Speaker 1: five plus yards per carry, maybe it's three point seven

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Speaker 1: yards per carry, and it forces enough third and seven pluses,

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Speaker 1: and it forces Carson Beck to do just enough with

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Speaker 1: a group of wide receivers that are still new in

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Speaker 1: a hostile environment, all working together for the first time,

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Speaker 1: that you do force some turnovers. I'm cautious of that.

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Speaker 1: I'm cautious of the road. I'm always cautious in college

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Speaker 1: football when a team has not gone on the road yet.

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Speaker 1: I'm always cautious about that. I am cautious about the

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Speaker 1: Carson Beck turnover factor. I'm just cautious that this Florida

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Speaker 1: State offense is going to stress Miami defensively in a

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Speaker 1: way that they haven't been stressed yet. It's just a

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Speaker 1: lot of firsts. Okay, Miami could go in there and

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Speaker 1: win thirty eight to ten for all I know, And

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Speaker 1: I'll show you what the model thinks about this in

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Speaker 1: the second. But also remember, from an intangible standpoint, we've

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Speaker 1: already seen this happen multiple times in college football. This year.

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Speaker 1: We watched a desperate Bama team must win mode, go

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Speaker 1: on the road and get a win. Last week, we

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Speaker 1: watched Illinois, who had just been body bagged the week before,

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Speaker 1: come home and get a straight up win against Southern

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Speaker 1: cal and a game that really wasn't even as close

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Speaker 1: as the final score indicated. And what was the common

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Speaker 1: theme there, and that's not an exhaustive list, by the way,

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Speaker 1: what were the common themes? Desperation, desperate, talented teams at home,

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Speaker 1: no less tend to put forth really inspired performs. Am

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Speaker 1: I cautious of all that? Am I aware of all that? Yes?

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Speaker 1: I am. Let's take a look at what the model

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Speaker 1: thinks FanDuel right now, this number's fallen throughout the week.

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Speaker 1: It's sitting at Miami minus four and a half. Right now,

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Speaker 1: our model agrees totally. We've had it at Miami minus four.

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Speaker 1: The FanDuel number kind of came down to where the

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Speaker 1: model already was. I gotta be real with you. I

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Speaker 1: have no strong feel on this game. I think Miami

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Speaker 1: is a very good team. I think they may be

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Speaker 1: the best team I've seen so far this year. I

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Speaker 1: am going to slightly pick them to win and cover.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to do you the favorite to win

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Speaker 1: and the underdog to cover. With a number that small,

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Speaker 1: there is zero shock with me if Florida State wins

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Speaker 1: this game, zero shot. It almost feels like it's too

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Speaker 1: easily laid out for Miami right now. Everyone's anointed them,

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Speaker 1: including me, at least in terms of being really good.

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Speaker 1: Like I've had them ranked number one, and it almost

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Speaker 1: feels like every year in college football you get this

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Speaker 1: team and you start to start to look at hell,

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Speaker 1: look at their schedule. Man, once they can get past

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Speaker 1: this one, well what if they don't get past it.

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Speaker 1: It's not the end of the world if they don't,

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Speaker 1: by the way, but what if they don't. It just

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Speaker 1: never works out that clean. But you know what, I

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Speaker 1: do think they have enough edges. I think they have

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Speaker 1: more ways to win this game than Florida State. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter if the one way Florida State can win it,

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Speaker 1: they do. But I'll take Miami to win and cover. Buddy,

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Speaker 1: I've got no confidence, no confidence in that game, but

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Speaker 1: I'm confident I'll be there right there on the sideline.

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Speaker 1: I'm mistakenly a couple of years ago called it Doke

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Speaker 1: Walker Stadium, remember that, Jesse, and it was an accident.

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Speaker 1: I know it's dope Campbell, but we got lit up.

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Speaker 1: So anytime I'm talking about a home game at Florida State,

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Speaker 1: where I have not been for a game since twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: mind you, I'm always careful I don't mess up the

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Speaker 1: name Quick Trip though, because they fuel the fall. Don't

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Speaker 1: lie to her. And we are headed in week six

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Speaker 1: to Tallahassee, Florida. We'll be down there for that. When

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Speaker 1: the last time I was there, I was just talking

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Speaker 1: to someone about this today. The last time I was

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Speaker 1: at a game at Florida State was Deshaun Watson and

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Speaker 1: Clemson came in there in twenty sixteen and it was

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Speaker 1: a night game. Jimbo was there, Dabo Jimbo, and I

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Speaker 1: think it was like thirty five to thirty one something

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Speaker 1: like that was the final score. But I remember thinking

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Speaker 1: to myself, Okay, Deshaun Watson and Clemson, they're gonna do

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Speaker 1: it again, because I thought, for all the world that

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Speaker 1: was Florida State's game. And sure enough, they came back

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Speaker 1: and won on the road. And I just remember thinking

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Speaker 1: to myself, this place seems insane. I cannot believe someone

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Speaker 1: just came in here and got to win. That's the

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Speaker 1: way they talked about Week one this year. Remember, kids,

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Speaker 1: it was what a little over a month ago, maybe

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Speaker 1: like a month ago. You remember how loud that place was.

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Speaker 1: You remember how people came out of there talking about

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Speaker 1: how big a perfect storm it was. And Bama got

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Speaker 1: rattled and they didn't know what to do. Well, if

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Speaker 1: you did it against Bama, could you do it against Miami?

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Speaker 1: Line is four four and a half. For anyone thinking

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Speaker 1: this is one, you can just overlook. The line is

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Speaker 1: four and a half. We'll be there thanks to quick trip.

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Speaker 1: Next up, Oh, there's something about prediction Tuesday, something about it.

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Speaker 1: Vandy is at Alabama Saturday, three thirty eastern two thirty

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Speaker 1: Central time, kickoff on ABC. This was the biggest shocker

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Speaker 1: of a result in all of twenty twenty four point

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Speaker 1: spread was I think twenty two and a half. Yes,

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Speaker 1: there were bigger point spread upsets last year. I don't

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Speaker 1: know how you feel about it, and felt about it.

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Speaker 1: This was the most shocking outcome that I remember last year.

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Speaker 1: Just remember it's kind of similar to this year. Alabama

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Speaker 1: had just beaten Georgia at home. They're going on the

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Speaker 1: road to take on Vandy and they lose outright, just

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Speaker 1: a stunner. And I remember that I was at a

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Speaker 1: Texas A and m Missouri, which was a blowout, and

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Speaker 1: I'm flying home as that game's taking place, and I

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Speaker 1: feel like an idiot because I flew all the way

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Speaker 1: to Texas to watch Missouri get splattered when I could

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Speaker 1: have just walked to the Vanderbilt game. Literally, I could

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Speaker 1: have walked from my apartment and seen the outcome of

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Speaker 1: the year, the stunner of the year, and then they

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Speaker 1: took the goal post down Broadway. This really happened. We

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Speaker 1: could see it. If I were in our studio at

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Speaker 1: the time, I could have looked down on the street

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Speaker 1: and watched the goalpost get taken to the Cumberland River.

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Speaker 1: But nope, I had to go to college station. We

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Speaker 1: had a fun time that weekend. But yeah, game days

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Speaker 1: in town for this, everyone's attention is on it. Vanderbilt,

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Speaker 1: for the first time in my lifetime, has the full

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Speaker 1: attention of a program like the University of Alabama. Like

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Speaker 1: everyone's paying attention to the game. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you're new to college football if that really clicks with you,

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Speaker 1: But if you've been around for a while, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're like twenty five or older and you've got

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Speaker 1: a sense of his about the game. For Vanderbilt to

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Speaker 1: have Alabama and the country's full attention in a matchup

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Speaker 1: like this is amazing. For that matter, for Vandy to

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Speaker 1: be in Tuscaloosa and only be a ten and a

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Speaker 1: half point dog is also a really, really big deal.

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Speaker 1: But they don't want to cover. They want to win,

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Speaker 1: so let's talk about it. The question is, obviously, can

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Speaker 1: Vandy pull it off again. Let me give you a

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Speaker 1: few reasons to suggest yes they can. Last year, they

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Speaker 1: ran the ball on Bama. They have a top twenty

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Speaker 1: rush offense. This year. Bama currently sits ninetieth in run defense.

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Speaker 1: Bama's face some decent teams running the ball. Yeah, okay,

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Speaker 1: Vandy can run it. They got that quarterback that can

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Speaker 1: run it. They got some horses. They can run the ball.

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Speaker 1: Number two reason. Last year's game featured a forty two

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Speaker 1: minute to eighteen minute time of possession advantage lean Vanderbilt.

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Speaker 1: Vandy is once again a top twenty team in the

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Speaker 1: country in time of possession. Thirdly, Vandy is fourth in

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Speaker 1: third down conversions in the country this year. You remember

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Speaker 1: this game last year, they were twelve of eighteen on

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Speaker 1: third down and one of one on fourth down. Bama

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Speaker 1: couldn't get the ball. They never had the ball, and

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Speaker 1: when they did they turned it over. They lost the

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Speaker 1: turnover battle as well. So there are certainly carryover elements

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Speaker 1: of Vanderbilt. Same stuff you saw last year, you've seen

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Speaker 1: this year. Here's why it could be different. Alabama is

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Speaker 1: one of three teams in FBS with no turnovers. They

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Speaker 1: have not given the ball away. And that's not some fluke.

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Speaker 1: It's never a fluke when you get five or six

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Speaker 1: weeks in and you haven't turned the ball over. But

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Speaker 1: if you listen to them, even in fall camp, well

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Speaker 1: was the one thing that Ryan Grubb and that coaching

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Speaker 1: staff kept saying about ty Simpson. He doesn't turn the

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Speaker 1: ball over. He's protected the football. They kept talking about

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Speaker 1: how all throughout fall camp we've turned it over like

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Speaker 1: two or three times or whatever. Well, that's tracked, that's

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Speaker 1: carried over, so we've got that. But you know, even

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Speaker 1: though they aren't running the ball great, there's still thirteenth

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Speaker 1: in the country on third down conversion. That last game

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Speaker 1: really helped that stat uptick. They're thirtieth in the country

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Speaker 1: in time of possession, which is weird because you would

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Speaker 1: think to control those metrics to thrive in those categories.

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Speaker 1: If you're Alabama, you got to be able to run

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Speaker 1: the ball. But they're running numbers rushing yards per game.

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Speaker 1: They're one hundred and eighth in the country. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what else to tell you. If you watched the

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Speaker 1: Georgia game, I think you saw what we talked about.

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Speaker 1: Cubert came on the show last Thursday, talked a lot

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Speaker 1: about extensions of the run game, how they accomplish what

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Speaker 1: the equivalent of rush yardage would be. They just don't

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Speaker 1: do it the same way a Nick Saban team would

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Speaker 1: have done it, the same way a Kirby Smart team

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Speaker 1: tries to do it. Now, do you have to be

390
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Speaker 1: a little bit more efficient? Is it a little bit

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Speaker 1: higher skill level and more people require and more time

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Speaker 1: invested required to accomplish that. Yeah, but when it works,

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Speaker 1: it works, and it's worked for him so far. There

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Speaker 1: are much more consistent offense. I think ty Simpson's making

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Speaker 1: the right decisions and because of that, that doesn't immunize

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Speaker 1: you from getting beat. What it does mean is the

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Speaker 1: other guy's got to beat you. I don't mean that disrespectfully.

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Speaker 1: I don't mean they handed a game to Vanderboot last year,

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Speaker 1: But to say that they came up here fully prepared

400
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Speaker 1: I think would be alive. To say they focused on

401
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Speaker 1: Vanderbolt last year, I think would be a lie. So

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Speaker 1: how does Vandy beat an Alabama team who's full attention

403
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 1: they have. Well, I think it really comes down to

404
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Speaker 1: Vandy's secondary. How goodable are they through the air, because

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Speaker 1: they hadn't faced a top passing attack at all. The

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00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 1: statistics say they hadn't faced the top fifty passing attack,

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Speaker 1: and I think that really tracks like the closest you know,

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Speaker 1: theoretically they may have come is face in South Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Again theoretically, but Sellers was out most of that game,

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Speaker 1: so they didn't really get anyone. And now, by far,

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Speaker 1: they'll face the best quarterback they faced all year. They

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Speaker 1: won't face a better stable of receivers than this all year.

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Speaker 1: So what Alabama's got to try and do here is

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Speaker 1: just flip the game script. All the stuff they did

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Speaker 1: to you last year. You flip it by converting on

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Speaker 1: third down, by doing what you did agains Joe Orgia

417
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Speaker 1: last week. I mean, it was Bama that dominated time

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Speaker 1: of possession, it was Bama that dominated third down. Well,

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Speaker 1: if you come close, just remotely close to knocking down

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Speaker 1: the dominoes you did against Georgia last week, you will

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Speaker 1: have flipped the Vanderbilt game script from last year. And

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Speaker 1: I don't think anyone looks at it and says Alabama's

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Speaker 1: got to be utterly dominant. They don't have to go

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Speaker 1: scorch st Earth here. You just can't implode in those categories.

425
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:28,360
Speaker 1: The other theory that I'm working off of is the

426
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,679
Speaker 1: FSU loss kind of changed Alabama. I was just talking

427
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: at Chris low legend of the business. Chris Lowe is

428
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: in the building tonight and he's like probably twenty feet

429
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 1: away from me right now. We were just talking before

430
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 1: the show. Hey, it's pretty obvious the Florida State lost

431
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: triggered something in Alabama as a program. But if you

432
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: get granular, I'd love to know did Tommy Castellanos's performance

433
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: in that Florida State game in Week one trigger something

434
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: in Cane Womack and that defense. We can't know until Saturday.

435
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 1: We can't know. But mobility at the quarterback position has

436
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: given them fits. It gave him fits in Week one.

437
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: Sure enough, here comes Diego Pavia rolling into town. Last year,

438
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 1: he was sixteen of twenty through the air for two

439
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty two yards two touchdowns. But he also

440
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 1: ran the ball twenty times for fifty six yards. But

441
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 1: a lot of his mobility just ate them up. A

442
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: lot of his mobility then opened up lanes and gap integrity.

443
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 1: I cannot tell you how many times I heard those

444
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 1: words in the pejorative context the week after Alabama played Vanderbilt.

445
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 1: So how much did they learn? How much did Tommy

446
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 1: Castellanos doing what he did to them in week one

447
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 1: wake them up? Just from a defensive standpoint, What kind

448
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 1: of adjustments are made? What kind of adjustments can they make?

449
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 1: They're missing James Smith the first half of this game.

450
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,479
Speaker 1: Kway Russau got hurt last week, so they're not one

451
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: hundred percent defensively. No one is that concludes them though,

452
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: so can Vandy pull it off again? Let's take a

453
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: look at what the model thinks. FanDuel number has come down.

454
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 1: This was at one time I think Bama minus thirteen

455
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: and a half. We got it at twelve and a

456
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 1: half the other night when we were doing the Sunday Show,

457
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: That's what it was at. It's at Bama minus ten

458
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 1: and a half. Now we still think the numbers should

459
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: be lower. Our model has Bama minus nine. We took

460
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:20,959
Speaker 1: Vandy at twelve and a half as one of our

461
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 1: best bets of the weekend. I just flat out think

462
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 1: they're a good enough team to hang with Alabama. They

463
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: got a puncher's chance of beating Alabama. They will be

464
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 1: within reach. And I also go back to this, Okay,

465
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: I know if you're a Bama fan, you think to yourself,

466
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: we just beat Georgia and you did and that's wonderful.

467
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 1: Think about the Kaylin de boor profile, the team profile.

468
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,640
Speaker 1: What's his best team been. His best team's been Washington

469
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 1: and that Washington year where they went all the way

470
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 1: to the title game. I remember that year number one,

471
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 1: cause I kept picking against them and being proven wrongs

472
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 1: like a pie in the face every weekend. But the

473
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 1: other thing I remember is how many one possession games

474
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,679
Speaker 1: they played. You know, even in his best year, the

475
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: wins are close wins, they don't they didn't blow many

476
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 1: people out. And so I think about this game. I

477
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 1: think Alabama will win the game. That's my pick. I

478
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: think Alabama will win the game. But pulling away from

479
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: Vanderbilt is not going to be easy. And I'll tell

480
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: you this. I was looking at our power ratings a

481
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: little while ago, just in terms of raw power rating,

482
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 1: strip away the Vanderbilt logo. They compare very favorably to Michigan.

483
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: Right now, if Michigan were coming to Tuscaloos a Saturday,

484
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 1: you would still think you're gonna win, but a lot

485
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 1: more of the country would be taking them seriously. They'd

486
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 1: be taking the matchup seriously. That's how seriously you should

487
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,679
Speaker 1: be taking this. That's the caliber of team that Vanderbilt

488
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 1: is right now. Michigan USC was another one that was

489
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 1: right there. Again, these are not teams you think are

490
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:50,679
Speaker 1: as good as Alabama. I don't think they're as good

491
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 1: as Bama, but you would take the threat seriously, take

492
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: this threat very seriously. We were taking Vandy to cover.

493
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: That's actually one of our best bets of the week.

494
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,199
Speaker 1: But I am taking Alabama to win, So I think

495
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,959
Speaker 1: it's right there in that six eight nine kind of

496
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 1: point range. Let us move on. Did I bring yo?

497
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: Brought the chapstick, no free shout outs, but forgot to

498
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: put it on before the show. We've got a game

499
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 1: this Saturday in the Swamp that I swore would be

500
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,919
Speaker 1: one of the games of the year back in the summer,

501
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: and it's Texas and Florida. Both of them are coming

502
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 1: off of bye. It is a Saturday, three thirty Eastern

503
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 1: timekick on ESPN and it's not a Game of the

504
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: Year candidate. I haven't even heard many people talking about it.

505
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 1: It's a shame. It's a shame. It's a shame Texas

506
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 1: is favored by six and a half. Here. DJ Lagway

507
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 1: was quoted earlier in the week is saying, eventually this

508
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: offense is gonna pop, and when it does, look out,

509
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 1: And I assume he means in twenty twenty five, but

510
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: I don't know. It couldn't mean anything at this point. Look,

511
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: if your offense is gonna pop at some point this year,

512
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: Texas is gonna pop at some point this year. So

513
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: who knows. They're both coming out of their by it.

514
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 1: Maybe both offenses pop. Unlikely since the totals forty one

515
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 1: and a half in the game. Unlikely since we have

516
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 1: the number one hundred and three and the number one

517
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty three offenses in terms of third down

518
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: conversion percentage. But hey, hey, the past is the past

519
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 1: and the future is now. So this is a hopeful

520
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 1: paper pop. Okay, Frankly, I don't have much to go on,

521
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 1: but I'm hoping some things change for Florida coming out

522
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: of the bye week. There are one hundred and sixth

523
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 1: and explosive pass rate right now, So I think they

524
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: got to take multiple shots in this game. Is it

525
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,199
Speaker 1: a high percentage chance, No, it's not. But if you

526
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 1: don't convert them, you got a no percentage chance of

527
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 1: winning this game. But it doesn't happen without a couple

528
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 1: of things. Because I remember, just like you do, the

529
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: five turnover game against LSU. So it seems weird. I'm

530
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: sitting here calling for DJ Lagway to throw. You can't not,

531
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 1: but what you can do, this is the prerequisite to

532
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 1: taking your deep shot. Says, you got to fully commit

533
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: to the run. Much like FSU. You're gonna run into

534
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,920
Speaker 1: a brick wall many many times, but you got to

535
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 1: stay committed to it. Right now, you're sitting at five

536
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: point nine yards per carry. Well, Jaden ball is And

537
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 1: yet I watched the LSU game and he carried it

538
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 1: ten times. And I watched the Miami game and he

539
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 1: carried it twelve times. These are not blowout games. These

540
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: are very close games, and they're just not giving him

541
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: the ball. I have no idea why, And I don't

542
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: question play calling, and I won't question individual play calling

543
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 1: even in that sense, I will question philosophy. Why why

544
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 1: did you think it gave you a better shot? For

545
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: DJ Lagway to throw that many times against LSU A

546
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: team also incapable of pulling away because they can't run

547
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: the ball, when you could have run the ball yourself

548
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: and controlled a lot more of the game. So one

549
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 1: of the things that I always have in consideration when

550
00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: a team season has gone bad, especially when they have

551
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 1: a bye week, is they have very little incentive to

552
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: keep doing what they've been doing. Now, that's no guarantee

553
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: that the changes they make will work, but they will

554
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 1: make changes, so I certainly think they'll commit more to

555
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: the ground game. Here. You got to flip third down,

556
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: and it helps a lot more when it's third and short.

557
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: But Florida right now one hundred and twenty third and

558
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: third down conversion percentage And Keith Nieber over at Gators Online,

559
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: part of the on three network there, Keith Nieber put

560
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: out the stat earlier today over there, and it's troubling.

561
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: There's no other word to describe it. It's troubling. Florida

562
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: one of nineteen on third down of nine plus You

563
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 1: just you think in your head, at some point you

564
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: accidentally convert a couple of them. You got good athletes

565
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 1: at some point. Just you accidentally make a play a

566
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: couple of times. Nope, one of nineteen on third and

567
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: nine plus. So run the ball, get yourself in favorable

568
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 1: third down situations, and just remember you got really good players.

569
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: You're supposed to have a really good offensive line. Third

570
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: down is the pre padlock stat Here, I'm gonna say

571
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: it for a third time here, I'll I'll pop the

572
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 1: paper for real this time. This could be a historically,

573
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: it's like a historical slog fest, I guess would be

574
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: the best way to describe it. If neither of these

575
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 1: offenses come out of their shell, neither third down conversion

576
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: team is in the one hundreds, a top one hundred,

577
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: Like they're both in the one hundreds in third down

578
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 1: conversion percentage. It's a stack category so rare. I don't

579
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: even know how it's supposed to come out of the mouth.

580
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 1: I don't even know how I'm supposed to say that

581
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: Texas may just take over with pass rush. That's the

582
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: thing about Texas. It's what's gotten them by so far.

583
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 1: Even when all the rest of this stuff fails them,

584
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: they can just go harass the quarterback all day. And

585
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 1: if they do then we don't need the Arch Breakout

586
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: Tour to launch in Gainesville, Florida. It can wait, but

587
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: just something to consider here. This is the part where

588
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: you still don't know what You don't know what would

589
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 1: Florida be if they had played Texas's schedule, because I'm

590
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: arguing they would have Texas's exact record. I don't know

591
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 1: what Texas would be with Florida's schedule, but I think

592
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: if I changed nothing about Florida, but I just gave

593
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: them Texas a schedule, Florida would have gone to Ohio State,

594
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 1: probably lost, and then they would have beat San Jose

595
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 1: State and UTAP and Sam Houston. I think, okay, don't

596
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: throw USF at me. USF would also be a double

597
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 1: digit favorite against all these teams Texas played. And my

598
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 1: point there is maybe at net scenario, Florida is still bad.

599
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: It's just been masked. And okay, I'll grant you that.

600
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 1: But my follow up is, what if that's Texas? What

601
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: if they're not all that different? I think they are.

602
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 1: There's a reason Texas is still nearly a touchdown favorite

603
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 1: on the road here. I think they are. I think

604
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 1: a lot of things I thought Illinois could beat Indiana

605
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago, and I was not wrong.

606
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,479
Speaker 1: It's just that kids and coaches and officials screwed up,

607
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 1: so kids and coaches and officials could screw up again here.

608
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: You know, let's take a look what the model thinks Texas. Also,

609
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: as I throw up what the model thinks, remember this,

610
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: Texas going on the road one hundred and twenty sixth

611
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 1: in the country in penalties. Florida is at least top

612
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 1: forty in that category. The swamp does not make you

613
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 1: more disciplined. I'll just say that. Not a mem Aw quote,

614
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 1: but it could have been. FanDuel's got this number at

615
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 1: Texas minus six and a half. We've got it at

616
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 1: Texas minus five. I woke up with a feeling Sunday

617
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: I have not gotten rid of it. I think Florida

618
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 1: is going to win this game. Don't ask me how,

619
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: Don't ask me what happens afterwards with Billy Napier. I

620
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: don't know. I think Florida is going to find a

621
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 1: way to win the game. I'm just telling you, I

622
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 1: don't think there's that much separation between the teams. I've

623
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 1: been accused of hating on Texas lately, that's not true.

624
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 1: I have chastised the model for being too high on Texas.

625
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: I'm not anti Texas. I think again, there is something

626
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 1: to be said about the fact that that team did

627
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: not quit on Napier last year. I don't think they're

628
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 1: gonna quit on him this year. They have played a

629
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 1: little bit tougher schedule than Texas, and therefore they have

630
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 1: contributed themselves to their own downfall. They've also faced some

631
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 1: pretty stiff competition, and it's led to this perception that

632
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 1: there's this big gap between these teams. Maybe there is,

633
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 1: Maybe there isn't. Maybe we haven't gotten Lagway at anything

634
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: better than a C plus performance level so far this year,

635
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: and we get an A minus out of him Saturday. That,

636
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 1: combined with that defense in Texas's offensive struggles and they're

637
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 1: wide receivers, in ability to separate could be the difference.

638
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna roll the dice. Man. Everyone else given

639
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: up on BILLI Napier, I'm gonna roll the dice. I'm

640
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: gonna buy Florida one more time. I'm gonna take him

641
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 1: to win the game, outright. I tried to flex in

642
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: that one. Not as good as our friends at flex

643
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 1: Power but I tried, I tried, I tried, I tried.

644
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 1: So I was talking with the folks at flex Power

645
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: earlier today, and you know they're a new partner of ours.

646
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 1: So myflexpower dot com is where you can go really

647
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: good products over there. I just want to remind you

648
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 1: if you are unfamiliar, you know, just with the purpi

649
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 1: plural of purpose of generators, you use those things for

650
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: a lot. They really come in handy. I'm around them

651
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 1: a lot, for instance in storm damage repair mode because

652
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 1: I am a stormchaser, so I see backup generators have

653
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: to get used all the time. But you can use

654
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: it to power a pitching machine, which maybe you purchased

655
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 1: an academy. You can use it to pressure wash the driveway.

656
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: You can use it to inflate a bouncy castle for

657
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 1: the birthday party. There are a million different uses. But

658
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 1: you know where I see it the most is it tailgates.

659
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 1: Because you got a flex Power generator at a tailgate,

660
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 1: especially the thirty three hundred igh just my preferred model.

661
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 1: You are a hero, you are quite literally a king.

662
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: You don't walk into the tailgate scene with a flex

663
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 1: Power generator and become less popular. I'm not saying that

664
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 1: it's gonna make you prom king or queen or anything

665
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 1: like that. You used to got work to do yourself.

666
00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 1: But I'm just saying it doesn't hurt. It does not

667
00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 1: hurt at all. And we were very excited that they're

668
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: on board, friends, long time friends of the program. Man,

669
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:17,879
Speaker 1: I had a stat you know what, I'm gonna read

670
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: the stat. The previews already done for the game. But

671
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,240
Speaker 1: I just want to tell you about that Texas Florida

672
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 1: game they played last year. Okay, it was forty two

673
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: to nothing Texas in the third quarter. Texas had six

674
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 1: tds in that game. Two of them were by Golden

675
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 1: He's gone. One was by Gunner Helm He's gone. Isaiah

676
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 1: Bond gone, Blue Gone, Ers gone. Weisner scored one. He's

677
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: still there and he is not, you know, a star

678
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 1: player for them so far this year. I just I

679
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 1: know Texas has players. I know they do. I know

680
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 1: they do. I just think the game is going to

681
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: be closer than the public thinks. Because the public thinks

682
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: it's like this get right spot for Texas. Texas goes

683
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 1: in there and no matter how they win, it's like

684
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: an assume thing that they'll win and we'll see if

685
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: they can, you know, start building some momentum and they

686
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 1: play Oklahoma next week. By the way they play them

687
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 1: Red River shoot Out, a game known by no other

688
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: name than that on this show, that's that's a week

689
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 1: from Saturday. What if it's undefeated Oklahoma against two last Texas.

690
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: Someone floated that theory in week one. Don't know whom's

691
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: I got a good question here, Ryan from what is

692
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 1: this town in North Carolina? Boys Creek? Is that what

693
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: we think? Bradley? Is that what we think? Jesse? Well? Yeah, whatever,

694
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 1: Boy's Creek in North Carolina? Well, Ryan from Beautiful North

695
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 1: Carolina asked this question, what's the most overlooked story in

696
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: college football so far this season? It's the transfer portal.

697
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 1: But the transfer portal is a big story. But I'm

698
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 1: talking about a very specific part of the transfer portal

699
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 1: and how it's just changed the sport. And it's almost

700
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: one of those things that's been happening right in front

701
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: of your face, like it's an overlooked story, but it's

702
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: in plain sight. Look at how rapidly these programs have

703
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 1: figured out evaluation in the portal. Cause you know, like

704
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:13,439
Speaker 1: when portal season comes, you'll go to on three dot com,

705
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 1: and you'll look at the portal rankings and they'll have

706
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 1: the available players who have gone in the portal. We

707
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: all pay attention to that, and you'll have some of

708
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: them who go somewhere and they shine, and then you'll

709
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 1: have others who'll go somewhere and then you don't hear

710
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: from them, and it's just good evaluation versus bad evaluation.

711
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: All right, the hit rates this last cycle have been insane.

712
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 1: So I'm showing you right now on the screen if

713
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 1: you're listening on podcasts, this is on three's portal rankings

714
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 1: from this past cycle. Carson Beck was the number one

715
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 1: overall player available. David Bailey was in there, John Mattier

716
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 1: was in there, Niko Yamaliava just oh pour one out.

717
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 1: That's its own set of circumstances. But as you can see,

718
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 1: there are a lot of names there, specifically at Oregon,

719
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 1: that are making big impacts. But Texas Tech, just if

720
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: you look at the team rankings over it on three

721
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: Texas Tech, LSU, Ole, miss Oregon, Miami, Missouri, those were

722
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 1: the top six teams. Those are all playoff contenders right now,

723
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 1: and LSU's issues are not on the defensive side of

724
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 1: the ball where they completely overhauled things and did a

725
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 1: great job over there. But look at Oregon, just to

726
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 1: give you an example, not of the fact that they're

727
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 1: using the portal. That's not the big story. The big

728
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: story is the hit rate. The big story is how

729
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: these teams are fundamentally changing their trajectories in a given

730
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 1: season like that. So Oregon goes and adds eleven guys

731
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 1: from the portal. They got three offensive line starters. Did

732
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 1: you watch them at Penn State the other night? Okay,

733
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 1: they go on the road, Jesse, how many false starts

734
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 1: like two something like that, And they go on the

735
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 1: road and they weren't dominant. It took them a while,

736
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,760
Speaker 1: but they ended up winning the game. You're not supposed

737
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 1: to be able to do that. You're adding portal kids,

738
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 1: You're not supposed to be able to do that. In fact,

739
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 1: that was part of the case for Penn State. And

740
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 1: not only do they add three offensive linemen from the portal,

741
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 1: like it's one thing to add them for depth, They

742
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: added three starters on the offensive line, They got multiple

743
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,399
Speaker 1: starting dbs from the portal. They got a key tight

744
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: end Makai Hughes. The tailback is the one people thought

745
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 1: kind of highly of and not a bad player, but

746
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 1: he was not a guy that was going to come

747
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 1: in there and be a star like a mad Hardy

748
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 1: at Missouri for example, which is its own story, by

749
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: the way. But Oregon could win the national title this

750
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 1: year for all we know. And the reason I'm mentioning

751
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 1: it so emphatically, like I almost get worked up about it,

752
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: it's because there's this very antiquated way of thinking that

753
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: it's lesser than to go to the portal to get talent,

754
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: and it's a big risk of, you know, diluting your culture. Hey,

755
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 1: do you watch Oregon the other night? Does it seem

756
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 1: like they're I'm gonna loose at the seams at all?

757
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 1: Does it seem like does it seem like they're a

758
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 1: little rough around the edges culturally? Because it really didn't

759
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 1: feel that way to me. It feels like they went

760
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:11,279
Speaker 1: into state colleges through ninety eight under the chin of

761
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:15,759
Speaker 1: James Franklin and his team. No problem that. And then

762
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,879
Speaker 1: there's Texas Tech. Texas Tech added almost twice as many

763
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: guys as Oregon, so maybe you go for quality here. Well,

764
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:26,240
Speaker 1: Texas Tech needed both. They needed quality. They needed quantity.

765
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 1: So Texas Tech goes and adds twenty one guys from

766
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 1: the portal we counted earlier. Today, thirteen of those guys

767
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 1: have already played one hundred plus snaps this year. Another

768
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 1: one got hurt or he was well on his way,

769
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 1: and then several others are providing depth, like there are

770
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: a couple of other ones who have played over fifty

771
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 1: plus snaps and again, not a whisper of culture issue.

772
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 1: I keep mentioning that because I got Clemson over here

773
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 1: talking about how nope, we gotta stay very rigid and

774
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:01,320
Speaker 1: we got to add here to all way of doing things,

775
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 1: and we can't bend, not even a little bit. And

776
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 1: the insinuation is there's a right way in a wrong way,

777
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 1: or what they would say is there's the Clemson way.

778
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 1: And it frustrates me so much because I know why

779
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 1: they think what they think, and I think they're wrong.

780
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 1: And the case studies are everywhere. Okay, Oregon immediately went

781
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 1: to the portal and fortified a national championship contending roster.

782
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 1: Texas Tech went to the portal brought in wholesale changes

783
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 1: like they just imported a new defensive line. They go

784
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 1: to Utah quarterback gets hurt, doesn't matter. We're gonna pull

785
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: away anyway. Texas Tech is now the overwhelming favorite to

786
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 1: win the Big Twelve. They're the best team in the

787
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:41,359
Speaker 1: Big Twelve right now. They're the only team I've looked

788
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 1: at just from a pure talent profile standpoint in the

789
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 1: Big Twelve and said, if that team makes the playoff,

790
00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 1: they could actually win some games in the playoff because

791
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 1: they've got players that good. Six of the top ten

792
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,240
Speaker 1: players on their defense are transfers. They had the number

793
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 1: one portal class in the on three rankings. And again

794
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: I remember we were doing we were doing show prep

795
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: about a month ago. It would have been about a

796
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 1: month and a half ago, because it was like two

797
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:15,240
Speaker 1: weeks to go until kickoff, and it was a Sunday afternoon.

798
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 1: We were just talking to Joey maguire, friend of the program,

799
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:21,839
Speaker 1: and he was explaining in as vivid a detail as

800
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 1: he could what the vibe was like around there. And

801
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,439
Speaker 1: I remember he told us then and you have since

802
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 1: seen it born out. He said, I know people are

803
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: going to think that since we got so many portal kids,

804
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 1: it's just a bunch of mercenaries here, and it's a

805
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,359
Speaker 1: bunch of individuals and no team, he said, I swear

806
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 1: to you, I've never had a better dynamic than I

807
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 1: have right now. I don't know how to explain it

808
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: if you're not here. I don't know how to explain

809
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 1: it to people who have grown up knowing college football

810
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 1: one way and you're just supposed to get all your

811
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 1: talent from high school and otherwise it's going to be

812
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: really risky. I don't know how to explain it. I'm

813
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 1: just telling you we've got an incredible culture. Cohesion is

814
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:01,840
Speaker 1: great here. Now. That doesn't guarantee we're gonna win games,

815
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 1: but I remember him telling me that in August, and

816
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 1: I am sharing that with you because now you see it.

817
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 1: They got Houston this weekend, by the way, or I

818
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: think it maybe a fighting game, but LSU. I was

819
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 1: very critical of LSU the other night. Not their defense.

820
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 1: They've gone from eighty first in the country to fifty

821
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: ninth in the country to No. Eleventh in the country

822
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 1: in total defense. They took eighteen kids out of the

823
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: portal this last year. I'll tell you what they didn't do.

824
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,959
Speaker 1: They didn't go get a right tackle. That was kind

825
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 1: of the thinking around there. We got to address this defense,

826
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 1: and they did. Austin Thomas may be the best general

827
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 1: manager in the country. He's one of them, if not

828
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 1: the And over the past two cycles, they have done

829
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:46,760
Speaker 1: an incredible job of saving that defense, getting the players,

830
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 1: and getting the coaches. So credit where it's due to LSU.

831
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: They went and got game changing coaches, they've gotten game

832
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 1: changing talent, and their struggles this year have nothing to

833
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 1: do with the defensive side of the ball. They just

834
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 1: flat out they did not go get offensive line help.

835
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,280
Speaker 1: They banked on the fact that they could develop right tackle.

836
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 1: They have not, and you've also got a hurt quarterback

837
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 1: and you can't run the ball as a result. Okay,

838
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 1: that's not that defense's fault. So it's a little case study,

839
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,760
Speaker 1: little individual case study there at LSU, but also Texas

840
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 1: A and M. You know, Texas A and M is

841
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 1: another example. They looked at their quarterback, Marcel Reid. They

842
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 1: evaluated him, they defined him, his strengths and weaknesses, and

843
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: they decided, we need to be more explosive. We've got

844
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 1: to have a better vertical pass threat because he can

845
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 1: do it. We don't have the players here, So they

846
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 1: went and got Mario Kraver and they went and got

847
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:42,760
Speaker 1: Casey Concepcion and both of them are studs. You watched

848
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 1: the Notre Dame game. Did you ever think in your

849
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 1: life this time a year ago, boy A and m

850
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:51,240
Speaker 1: if they need to go on the road and score

851
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 1: forty throwing the ball, they'll be able to do it

852
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: against a national title contender. No, you didn't. Now you do,

853
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 1: because the portal, just like that, just like that, can

854
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 1: change the fortunes of a team. Miami was terrible in

855
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 1: their secondary last year, horrible. Miami is one of the

856
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:11,399
Speaker 1: best teams in the country right now. They are now

857
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:14,959
Speaker 1: top twenty five in passing defense and they've only got

858
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 1: one returning starter in that secondary from last year. Elsewhere

859
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: they brought in an entirely new secondary and a new

860
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:26,399
Speaker 1: coordinator and voila. Now, question with them and all these

861
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:28,919
Speaker 1: teams is as you get deeper into the season, does

862
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: it sustain itself? But there's also you know, it sounds

863
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 1: good here. If you're just listening to this and you

864
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:36,840
Speaker 1: know nothing about the portal, you would think, oh, everyone

865
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:40,279
Speaker 1: should use the portal. Oh no, it's very risky. It's

866
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 1: very risky. You still in an ideal world would love

867
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 1: to just build strictly through high school. None of these

868
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: places look and say, yeah, we just want to live

869
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:51,919
Speaker 1: in the portal forever. They're just not dumb enough. They're

870
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 1: not ignorant or obtuse enough to say we're never going

871
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 1: to use the portal. But it does have its downsides.

872
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:03,360
Speaker 1: For instance, at Auburn right now, they had to nail

873
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 1: quarterback and they didn't, and they are suffering and are

874
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 1: going to continue to suffer as a result of the

875
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,800
Speaker 1: fact that Jackson Arnold's not the right guy. Their offensive

876
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 1: line situation is a mess. At Nebraska, you know, we

877
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:18,919
Speaker 1: were up there a couple of weeks ago. Everyone thought

878
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 1: that Elijah Pritchett. They went and got him to transfer

879
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 1: from Alabama. They thought that that was going to be

880
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 1: an answer for them at one of the tackle spots.

881
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:30,359
Speaker 1: It wasn't, and Michigan caved them all afternoon because they

882
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 1: didn't nail that. So it is not without its risks.

883
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:38,360
Speaker 1: But I'm telling you these that's why I'm pointing out evaluation. Okay,

884
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 1: Pritchett was a poor evaluation. He was never going to

885
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 1: be a game changer. He's definitely not worth the money

886
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 1: Nebraska paid him. Jackson Arnold did oh at Auburn, But

887
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 1: go ask Oregon as they were flying home from that

888
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 1: game in State College, Isaiah World or pregnant or these

889
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: guys that we got on the offensive line. I mean,

890
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 1: that is the difference in the futures of a coaching staff,

891
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 1: the future of front office, the future of the players themselves,

892
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:10,319
Speaker 1: the future of the other guys who were already on

893
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 1: the team. And I would just I just love to know.

894
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 1: I do know, because I'm around Oregon enough, but I'd

895
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 1: love for everyone else to listen to how the other

896
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:22,279
Speaker 1: guys in that locker room feel, Cause those guys came in.

897
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 1: You think everyone's standing in their respective corners. You know,

898
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 1: the guys that got recruited to Orgon out of high school,

899
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 1: and they're over there staring at the guys who portled in. No,

900
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 1: they're all wearing the same helmet on Saturday, fighting for

901
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 1: the same thing on Saturday. Are they getting paid money?

902
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 1: Aren't they? Josh? Yeah, yeah they are. Can you pick

903
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,760
Speaker 1: out the ones who are and aren't being paid big money?

904
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 1: Pop on that pop on that Oregon film, Pop on

905
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,879
Speaker 1: that Texas Tech Utah film. Which of those Texas Tech

906
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 1: players were exhibiting selfish tendencies in that pull away win.

907
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 1: Did anybody see that? I haven't noticed that. So look,

908
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 1: I was resistant to a lot of this change, truth

909
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 1: be told. I still prefer the old school way. I

910
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 1: love what recruiting used to be. I loved knowing that

911
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,360
Speaker 1: if a guy committed to Tennessee out of high school,

912
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 1: pretty decent chance he's going to be their four years.

913
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: It made me care about the recruiting process on the

914
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,240
Speaker 1: front end a whole lot more. It made National Signing

915
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 1: Day my Christmas essentially. So yeah, I miss it, but

916
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 1: I can't go back. I can't control it. Most of

917
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:26,320
Speaker 1: these coaches, truth be told, they'd love to do that

918
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 1: as well. But there's a difference in living in a

919
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 1: fairytale world living in the real world. And I think

920
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:35,800
Speaker 1: the biggest story right now is some guys have embraced

921
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 1: the change and thrived because of it, Like Dan Lanning's

922
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 1: life has changed because of the portal. That doesn't mean

923
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 1: they don't recruit their tails off, but it does mean

924
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 1: that there's this entirely new mechanism here that if we've

925
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:53,320
Speaker 1: got holes on our roster, we don't have to bubble

926
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 1: gum and paper clip our way through a season. If

927
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 1: we can pony up. I mean, if if we got

928
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 1: an organizational structure, our donor class, our administrative class, they're

929
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:06,359
Speaker 1: willing to play ball with us. We don't have to

930
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 1: just go patchwork. We can cement one of those holes

931
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 1: closed with a future first round NFL draft pick. It's there.

932
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 1: You can either choose to use it, or you can

933
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,359
Speaker 1: get beaten because someone else used it. Those are really

934
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:25,920
Speaker 1: the only two options right now. And then there's a

935
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 1: third option. Academy Sports and Outdoors. You know, they've been

936
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 1: a legit for a long time. And frankly, I don't

937
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 1: think if you go to academy you need to go

938
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 1: anywhere else. Sometimes if you just recruit, you got to

939
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 1: go to the portal. I don't think if you go

940
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 1: to Academy and you look long enough, you need to

941
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,720
Speaker 1: go many other places. Like they don't sell gasoline there,

942
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:46,239
Speaker 1: you know, so you may have to fill up the

943
00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:48,279
Speaker 1: car on the way home. I have an idea where

944
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: you should go. But other than that, they got your

945
00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 1: big league chew, they got your overalls, they got your

946
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 1: canopies and your tents. They got your buckets with the

947
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 1: padded tops. So not only can you carry around your

948
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 1: baseballs or softballs, but you can also sit on it.

949
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 1: It's great. They're great if you can't get there in person.

950
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 1: Academy dot Com, as you covered, they have been a

951
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 1: longtime partner of ours. I'm just gonna say this. I

952
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 1: don't think we could get by without them. There you go.

953
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 1: I don't even say that about Bradley, and I say

954
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:20,799
Speaker 1: that about Academy. We have arrived at the portion of

955
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:22,359
Speaker 1: the show where I have to do a couple of things.

956
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 1: First thing I have to do, let's take a sip

957
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 1: of water, no free shout outs on the jug. And

958
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 1: the second thing I have to do is I have

959
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 1: to take a little bit of a victory lap. But

960
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:40,399
Speaker 1: that doesn't sound like me, so you know what I'll

961
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 1: call an audible I won't take a victory lap. Here

962
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 1: here's the beginning of the segment, Bradley, so you'll know

963
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 1: for later. It is time to unveil the week sixth

964
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:54,319
Speaker 1: edition of the JP Pole. Not rankings, but ratings. So

965
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 1: these are not rankings that we do Thursday night, and

966
00:50:57,560 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 1: it's starting to make a lot more sense to people.

967
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 1: I noticed as the dust settled on Saturday, I opened

968
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 1: my DMS and it's never a good idea. But I

969
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:09,120
Speaker 1: you know what, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna lie.

970
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 1: I interact with a bunch of you via DM every day.

971
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:13,760
Speaker 1: But I opened my DMS, and you know what I found, Jesse.

972
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:17,840
Speaker 1: I found a lot of people congratulating us, And I

973
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 1: said why And they said, well, I noticed that you

974
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 1: had lsu low already, and now it looks like you

975
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: were proven right. Noticed you never really dropped Bama far

976
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 1: and they beat Georgia. Looks like you were right. Florida State.

977
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: That was Friday night. We didn't have Florida State any

978
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 1: higher than I think fourteenth or something like that. They lost.

979
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 1: Now why is that important? It's important because the JP

980
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,880
Speaker 1: pole is predictive and it is built just to compare

981
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 1: teams who would be favored against two on a neutral field.

982
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,920
Speaker 1: And now there's some results already this year, like Florida

983
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 1: State over Bama in Week one. That when Florida State

984
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:00,759
Speaker 1: did not jump Bama in the JP pole, got a

985
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:03,760
Speaker 1: lot of people upset because they didn't understand the concept

986
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:06,399
Speaker 1: of neutral field favorability. You remember a couple of weeks ago,

987
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 1: I hit up FanDuel just so they could back us

988
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 1: up on it, and I had them confirm. This was

989
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 1: in week two, right after Florida State smoked Alabama, and

990
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 1: they said, if the game happened again today on a

991
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 1: neutral field, Bama would be an eight and a half

992
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 1: point favorite. So we were right. There wasn't even a

993
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:24,879
Speaker 1: matter of opinion, and people were still arguing with us. Well,

994
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,319
Speaker 1: now that we've gotten a few more weeks down the road,

995
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 1: you started to see some of the results happen that

996
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:35,320
Speaker 1: backed up what the JP pole had and that included

997
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 1: last week. Like we even disagreed with Vegas last week

998
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 1: because we had Old Miss already ahead of LSU by

999
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:45,320
Speaker 1: a pretty wide margin. We thought Old Miss was already

1000
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:49,440
Speaker 1: better than LSU. We've been dropping LSU steadily two weeks

1001
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 1: through three weeks in a row. I think the model

1002
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 1: has because it picked up on the flaws. Okay, So

1003
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 1: I just used that as the backdrop because we were

1004
00:52:57,560 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 1: accused of things like clickbaiting, you know, for the sin

1005
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 1: of not having teams where some people thought they should be. Well,

1006
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 1: the results are kind of backing up the model a

1007
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 1: lot more than the claims of clickbaiting. Plus I don't

1008
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 1: know what I want you to click on maybe the video.

1009
00:53:12,000 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 1: I don't know. Anyway, here we go number twenty. This

1010
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 1: week Michigan, we got Vandy at nineteen. Remember those are

1011
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 1: not rankings. I would have Vandy ranked much higher. I

1012
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 1: consider Vandy and Bama possibly a top ten matchup. We

1013
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 1: got to see where Bama's ranked Thursday and the Commissioner's pull.

1014
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 1: Utah's number eighteen. They're up four spots. Florida State's at seventeen.

1015
00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 1: LSU is at sixteen. Notice LSU didn't drop I think

1016
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 1: they dropped one spot. Florida State dropped one spot. We

1017
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 1: already had them in the right place, so we didn't

1018
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:48,960
Speaker 1: have to adjust them. We got pretty much the performance

1019
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:51,799
Speaker 1: levels that we thought we would get from LSU and

1020
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:54,360
Speaker 1: from FSU, so we didn't have to move them a

1021
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:56,440
Speaker 1: whole lot. We were ahead of the curve on them.

1022
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:58,520
Speaker 1: That's good. That's what we're trying to do. It's predictive.

1023
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 1: Missouri's at fifteen. Tennessee is at fourteen, and Tennessee they

1024
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:07,800
Speaker 1: dropped three spots, but they didn't really drop. We didn't

1025
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 1: downgrade them. It's just some teams moved ahead of them

1026
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,239
Speaker 1: because we got the performance we thought we'd get from

1027
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 1: Tennessee too. What Mississippi State was one of our favorite

1028
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 1: bets of the week. Remember, so we thought it would

1029
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: be a close game. The model thought it would be

1030
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 1: a close game. Therefore, when it was a close game,

1031
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 1: it got what expected. That means it has no reason

1032
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 1: to adjust the power rating. For Tennessee. We got Texas

1033
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:33,200
Speaker 1: Tech thirteen, Texas A and M twelve, and Indiana at

1034
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 1: number eleven. By the way, with Texas Tech, there is

1035
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,600
Speaker 1: now a three and a half point gap between them

1036
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:42,839
Speaker 1: and Utah at number eighteen. And I mentioned Utah cause

1037
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:46,480
Speaker 1: that's the next closest Big twelve team. So a little

1038
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:49,839
Speaker 1: bit of a gap forming a top a usually very

1039
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 1: compacted conference. Let's go top ten. Bradley, oh you is

1040
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:59,839
Speaker 1: at number ten, Miami is at nine. Notice jpee Pole

1041
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:03,440
Speaker 1: still just a little bit lower on Miami than the

1042
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:07,080
Speaker 1: rankings would be. They're still holding off a little bit.

1043
00:55:07,120 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 1: I know a lot of you find it shocking. For example,

1044
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 1: Texas is at eight, Penn State's at seven. A lot

1045
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 1: of you find it shocking Penn State would still be

1046
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 1: favored against Miami. I don't know what to tell you.

1047
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:19,759
Speaker 1: They would, at least according to the model. Ole miss

1048
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 1: is at number six. We got a lot of pushback

1049
00:55:23,000 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 1: last week when we already had ole Miss top ten.

1050
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:29,960
Speaker 1: Now everyone does. We got them at number six. Penn

1051
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:33,839
Speaker 1: State at number seven also is the classic situation of

1052
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 1: it not being a ranking. I didn't have Penn State

1053
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:41,240
Speaker 1: at number seven in my rankings last week. I already

1054
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 1: had them down at number ten last week before they

1055
00:55:43,600 --> 00:55:49,200
Speaker 1: got beat by Oregon. So definitely, power ratings wise, the

1056
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 1: model is going to be higher on Penn State than

1057
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,319
Speaker 1: a ranking. Penn State has no business being top ten

1058
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:56,439
Speaker 1: in any ranking right now, but there aren't many teams

1059
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 1: that would just straight up be favored against them on

1060
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:02,040
Speaker 1: a neutral field, so you're not gonna drop them too far.

1061
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 1: Penn State. I don't know how they didn't really drop

1062
00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:07,320
Speaker 1: all that far at all. Number six is old mess.

1063
00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:09,560
Speaker 1: Like I said, all right, five to one, Notre Dame

1064
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 1: at five, Georgia at four, Bama at three, they're still

1065
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:17,480
Speaker 1: right there next to each other. Oregon is two. Ohio

1066
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:20,400
Speaker 1: State number one. There is a three point gap between

1067
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:22,880
Speaker 1: Ohio State and Oregon right now. I don't know that

1068
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 1: I buy that, but hey whatever, they're not gonna play

1069
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 1: for at least another couple of months. If they do play.

1070
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 1: There is a ten point gap between number two and

1071
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 1: number eighteen, so still some very very unprecedented compactedness at

1072
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:42,359
Speaker 1: the top of the field. But yeah, Ohio State has

1073
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:44,840
Speaker 1: opened up as big a gap between number one and

1074
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:47,480
Speaker 1: the rest of the field as we've seen all year.

1075
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 1: It's a three point gap, you know, so that could

1076
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:52,680
Speaker 1: change week to week. And I also do want a note.

1077
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 1: They beat Washington last week, really good win on the

1078
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 1: road shut them down. Our model has Washington in like

1079
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:02,759
Speaker 1: the forty. I don't know what that means. It made

1080
00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 1: mean nothing. Ohio State did win convincingly. But just as

1081
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:08,880
Speaker 1: we continue to choose how much stock to put in wins,

1082
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:12,200
Speaker 1: I'm just keeping that in mind, there's not really a

1083
00:57:12,239 --> 00:57:15,800
Speaker 1: whole lot of opportunities for Ohio State to get exposed,

1084
00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:18,240
Speaker 1: even if they do have vulnerability, and they may not

1085
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 1: have a lot like really good coaching job going on

1086
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 1: right now in Columbus, Ohio. They're watching us in Alexandria, Virginia,

1087
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 1: in Venice, California, and in Panama City Beach, Florida. Thank

1088
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:34,680
Speaker 1: you so much. Let's continue. We've got a very sensitive

1089
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:41,919
Speaker 1: topic here, very sensitive topic. Earlier today I was made

1090
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 1: aware of a tweet from someone near and dear to

1091
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:50,400
Speaker 1: most of our hearts who is a real person. Unfortunately,

1092
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:53,120
Speaker 1: this week he is a real person, and that is

1093
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 1: Producer Jesse. Producer Jesse went to Penn State loves Penn State.

1094
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 1: You cut him open and you don't have red all

1095
00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:05,000
Speaker 1: over the carpet. It's blue and white. How does it happen?

1096
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:08,440
Speaker 1: No one knows, but he's all in Okay. So Producer

1097
00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:12,640
Speaker 1: Jesse goes to Twitter earlier today and he says, all right,

1098
00:58:13,240 --> 00:58:16,120
Speaker 1: here's the tired point of view. Penn State lost another

1099
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:19,560
Speaker 1: big game and we're destined for another above average season

1100
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 1: that ends in a gut punch. But here's the wired

1101
00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 1: point of view. Our offense was terrible for three quarters

1102
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 1: and we took a top three team in the country

1103
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:32,919
Speaker 1: to double overtime with multiple opportunities to win. So, as

1104
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:35,880
Speaker 1: you can see, they're gonna let it happen to him again,

1105
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 1: and it's time to do a good old fashioned Penn

1106
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:40,959
Speaker 1: State mood tracker around here. I went over to Blue

1107
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:43,680
Speaker 1: White Illustrated earlier. I just wanted to see what Sean

1108
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:45,760
Speaker 1: Fitz and the boys were talking about over there. I

1109
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,080
Speaker 1: wanted to take the temperature and there are some folks

1110
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 1: who were out There are many more folks like Jesse.

1111
00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 1: There are many more folks who have won plenty of

1112
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 1: bronze medals. They've even placed silver a few times. Gold

1113
00:58:59,080 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 1: has eluded them. But that does mean you ever stopped chasing.

1114
00:59:03,520 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 1: So I had Jesse get out of his chair today

1115
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:07,960
Speaker 1: and I had him go sit on the couch for

1116
00:59:08,000 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 1: a little while, because as you know, i'm a licensed therapist,

1117
00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 1: I'm not. And I had Jesse describe his mood to me.

1118
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:19,360
Speaker 1: And he started going down really really long, rambling incoherent sentences,

1119
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 1: and I said, no, no, no, use your big boy

1120
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 1: words adjectives, one word at a time. Describe how you feel,

1121
00:59:28,600 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 1: the most unfortunate paper Pop this side of Saturday Night producer.

1122
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:41,000
Speaker 1: Jesse feels disenfranchised, he feels detached, he feels disappointed. There's

1123
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 1: more than just d here, immunity. He feels gullible. He

1124
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:49,520
Speaker 1: said he felt gullible. He said he feels victimized. He

1125
00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 1: even said he felt bamboozled, which I thought was a

1126
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:57,080
Speaker 1: word that got retired in like nineteen ninety six. He

1127
00:59:57,120 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 1: feels jettisoned, and I thought he was done. There's a

1128
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,760
Speaker 1: long pause and I started to move on with my life,

1129
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:08,880
Speaker 1: and then he said, but I'm also hooked. So Jesse's

1130
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 1: still all in. James Franklin, I know watches every second

1131
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 1: of every show we do, and so he needs to know.

1132
01:00:15,240 --> 01:00:18,560
Speaker 1: You need to know, coach, that you've still got producer Jesse,

1133
01:00:19,160 --> 01:00:21,440
Speaker 1: which you need to be careful. That's a fragile heart

1134
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:23,880
Speaker 1: that you hold in your hands right now. And he's

1135
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:25,600
Speaker 1: not alone. Like I said, I went over to Blue

1136
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:28,760
Speaker 1: White Illustrated today and there is a lot of vulnerability.

1137
01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 1: There are a lot of feelings being shared on the

1138
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 1: message board over there, and of course there is a

1139
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:39,640
Speaker 1: cure and it's called UCLA. And fortunately, I think it's

1140
01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:42,000
Speaker 1: the best time to get out of town and fly

1141
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 1: nineteen thousand miles across the country. Go over there tomorrow

1142
01:00:45,920 --> 01:00:48,440
Speaker 1: for all I care. Spend as much time away from

1143
01:00:48,440 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 1: home as you can right now. It's good to get

1144
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:53,800
Speaker 1: out there, get your little sunburn. Okay, go stroll the

1145
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:56,160
Speaker 1: beach for a little while. It's just it's UCLA. You'll

1146
01:00:56,160 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 1: be fine. Just show up on time on Saturday. You'll

1147
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:02,479
Speaker 1: be fine. I have a theory. You in my mood

1148
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:05,560
Speaker 1: on Penn State, I've got a theory that I stated

1149
01:01:05,600 --> 01:01:07,520
Speaker 1: as soon as the game ended, and we talked about

1150
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:10,440
Speaker 1: it on Sunday night. My theory about Penn State football

1151
01:01:10,560 --> 01:01:14,400
Speaker 1: is a new timeline started the moment that game ended

1152
01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 1: Saturday night. But I don't know what kind of timeline

1153
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:20,160
Speaker 1: it is, because we're gonna have to have like three

1154
01:01:20,320 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 1: years perspective down the road. We're gonna have to get

1155
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 1: to twenty twenty eight before we really know which timeline

1156
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:30,440
Speaker 1: started on that Saturday night in September after Oregon beat

1157
01:01:30,520 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 1: us at home. The first kind of timeline is it

1158
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:36,320
Speaker 1: was the beginning of the end for James Franklin, and

1159
01:01:36,360 --> 01:01:38,280
Speaker 1: we just didn't know it at the time. And it

1160
01:01:38,280 --> 01:01:40,680
Speaker 1: may be that he takes another job. It may be

1161
01:01:40,840 --> 01:01:44,520
Speaker 1: that later he's fired, not this year, but down the

1162
01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:47,880
Speaker 1: road he ends up being fired, or it gets really

1163
01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:51,880
Speaker 1: messy and contentious and each side just despises each other

1164
01:01:51,920 --> 01:01:54,480
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of toxicity that's happened in college

1165
01:01:54,480 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 1: football before. That's one possible timeline that begins. There's another

1166
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 1: possible timeline. This is the one I'm hoping for, and

1167
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:07,560
Speaker 1: that is where James Franklin realizes I've gone about as

1168
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 1: far as my current approach will take us, But I

1169
01:02:11,160 --> 01:02:13,040
Speaker 1: haven't gone as far as I can go. I've just

1170
01:02:13,040 --> 01:02:15,320
Speaker 1: got to change some things about my approach. So I

1171
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:17,920
Speaker 1: look at my roster. I had everything going for me

1172
01:02:18,000 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 1: this year, this game. We led up to it, and

1173
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,280
Speaker 1: it culminated in me having a bye week and them

1174
01:02:23,320 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 1: coming across the country on the road with a new

1175
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 1: quarterback and a young team and a lot of new pieces,

1176
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 1: and all my pieces are well established, and it still

1177
01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 1: wasn't good enough for us. So how can I ever

1178
01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:35,400
Speaker 1: hope to be in a better position doing it my

1179
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:39,440
Speaker 1: current way than I am right now? Which de incentivizes

1180
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:42,720
Speaker 1: that and incentivizes doing it a new way. And my

1181
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 1: hope is that the new timeline that began is one

1182
01:02:46,760 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 1: that maybe changes just degrees of change here and degrees

1183
01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:53,040
Speaker 1: of change there. With the way James Franklin goes about

1184
01:02:53,080 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 1: running the Penn State football program, that will ultimately yield

1185
01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:58,920
Speaker 1: a better result with a higher ceiling than the one

1186
01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:02,240
Speaker 1: we've seen so far. Crystal clear, there's no more defined

1187
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:06,880
Speaker 1: ceiling in college football than James Franklin currently has at

1188
01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:10,120
Speaker 1: Penn State. They just bang their head against it every year,

1189
01:03:10,360 --> 01:03:13,560
Speaker 1: so there is no more defined ceiling. He may disagree

1190
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:16,440
Speaker 1: with that, but the results speak for themselves. So my

1191
01:03:16,560 --> 01:03:19,040
Speaker 1: point is that doesn't have to be James Franklin ceiling.

1192
01:03:19,560 --> 01:03:22,000
Speaker 1: It just you gotta change some things. Okay, if you

1193
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:24,560
Speaker 1: eat the exact same thing every day and you look

1194
01:03:24,600 --> 01:03:27,080
Speaker 1: the exact same way in the mirror, that doesn't mean

1195
01:03:27,120 --> 01:03:29,920
Speaker 1: you're incapable of looking different. You've just got to change

1196
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:32,520
Speaker 1: something about the diet. You gotta work out a little more.

1197
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:34,919
Speaker 1: You got to take this away, you got to add this.

1198
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:41,080
Speaker 1: You've got to basically align everything about what you are

1199
01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:44,480
Speaker 1: with your purpose and just do it a little better,

1200
01:03:44,560 --> 01:03:47,440
Speaker 1: do it a little different. Either way. A new timeline

1201
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:49,880
Speaker 1: started the other night. And one thing to keep in mind,

1202
01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:52,640
Speaker 1: just as it relates to this year. Okay, there's only

1203
01:03:52,680 --> 01:03:55,680
Speaker 1: so much you can change about yourself this year. I

1204
01:03:55,760 --> 01:03:58,520
Speaker 1: listened to his press conference either today or yesterday. He

1205
01:03:58,560 --> 01:04:00,440
Speaker 1: said all the right things, and he's right. It's a

1206
01:04:00,440 --> 01:04:03,560
Speaker 1: long season. Really, in the grand scheme of this year,

1207
01:04:04,040 --> 01:04:06,600
Speaker 1: all they've done is lose a conference game in overtime.

1208
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:09,360
Speaker 1: It's not the worst thing in the world. I know

1209
01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:11,880
Speaker 1: all that, I know all that I think. We also

1210
01:04:12,000 --> 01:04:14,360
Speaker 1: know that this was a very different game. This was

1211
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 1: not just one game. Yeah, and the conference standings. It's

1212
01:04:17,440 --> 01:04:21,600
Speaker 1: one game, it represented a whole lot more. It was symbolic.

1213
01:04:21,640 --> 01:04:23,920
Speaker 1: It was like boss Man getting hung at WrestleMania fifteen.

1214
01:04:24,120 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 1: It was symbolic. Michael Coley yelled at a million times

1215
01:04:27,520 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 1: like there's a guy just just dangling there from the ceiling.

1216
01:04:30,760 --> 01:04:33,680
Speaker 1: Seems pretty evident that that's the thing, but he kept yelling.

1217
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:38,880
Speaker 1: Is this symbolic of something? Well, symbolically, that loss was

1218
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:40,440
Speaker 1: a whole lot more than just a loss. And let

1219
01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 1: me use another late nineties pro wrestling metaphor. You remember

1220
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:45,520
Speaker 1: King of the Ring ninety nine, Jess. You remember that

1221
01:04:45,560 --> 01:04:49,600
Speaker 1: main event ladder match Austin versus the McMahon's. Remember the briefcase,

1222
01:04:49,680 --> 01:04:52,120
Speaker 1: Austin's within reach and then someone just yanks it up there.

1223
01:04:52,760 --> 01:04:55,400
Speaker 1: That's what it feels like right now. That's what it

1224
01:04:55,400 --> 01:04:59,040
Speaker 1: feels like for Penn State. But but how many elite

1225
01:04:59,080 --> 01:05:01,160
Speaker 1: teams are there in the country this year, because this

1226
01:05:01,200 --> 01:05:02,960
Speaker 1: is what they're kind of having a bank on right now.

1227
01:05:03,040 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 1: Penn State's not an elite team, but they're a really

1228
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 1: good team. There are not many teams that are better

1229
01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:10,200
Speaker 1: than Penn State because you know, like even in a

1230
01:05:10,240 --> 01:05:12,120
Speaker 1: down night the other night, like he said, they took

1231
01:05:12,120 --> 01:05:15,280
Speaker 1: Oregon to overtime. What you don't know is how the

1232
01:05:15,360 --> 01:05:16,640
Speaker 1: rest of the year is going to play out. You

1233
01:05:16,640 --> 01:05:18,880
Speaker 1: don't know what injury could do to other teams. You

1234
01:05:18,880 --> 01:05:21,280
Speaker 1: don't know that Penn State, even in their current state,

1235
01:05:21,400 --> 01:05:24,440
Speaker 1: may not be close enough to where plus three turnovers

1236
01:05:24,480 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 1: in the game may be all the difference in the world.

1237
01:05:27,080 --> 01:05:28,680
Speaker 1: Like they I don't know if they couldn't go on

1238
01:05:28,720 --> 01:05:31,200
Speaker 1: to win the national title. I think their limit is

1239
01:05:31,240 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 1: below that of a national title. I think that, but

1240
01:05:34,840 --> 01:05:40,160
Speaker 1: there's no there's no like unequivocally elite, better, above and

1241
01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 1: beyond type team. There may be by the time we

1242
01:05:42,600 --> 01:05:44,919
Speaker 1: get to December, they may go to Columbus and lose

1243
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:48,760
Speaker 1: thirty eight to ten, but they're going to be really competitive.

1244
01:05:48,800 --> 01:05:53,080
Speaker 1: So I'm not saying tap out, Jesse, don't stop, don't

1245
01:05:53,120 --> 01:05:59,200
Speaker 1: tap out, but you know, believe, but demand. I think

1246
01:05:59,240 --> 01:06:01,640
Speaker 1: that's the best of roach right now. I hope this

1247
01:06:01,720 --> 01:06:04,840
Speaker 1: has helped. Speaking of Penn State over at FanDuel right now,

1248
01:06:05,200 --> 01:06:08,640
Speaker 1: the exclusive odds provider of the show, what if I

1249
01:06:08,680 --> 01:06:10,480
Speaker 1: told you they still have the fifth best odds to

1250
01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:14,560
Speaker 1: win it all? Because they do? They do. I don't

1251
01:06:14,600 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 1: know that many of you are rushing to bet it

1252
01:06:16,000 --> 01:06:18,040
Speaker 1: at the moment, but they have the fifth best odds

1253
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:20,640
Speaker 1: to win it all and you can. You can find

1254
01:06:20,640 --> 01:06:22,400
Speaker 1: that at FanDuel. I don't have to prove it. They'll

1255
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:24,760
Speaker 1: prove it. They are my proof. I want to remind

1256
01:06:24,800 --> 01:06:26,160
Speaker 1: you if you're a new customer, if you're a new

1257
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:29,200
Speaker 1: sign up over there, you can use that QR code.

1258
01:06:29,400 --> 01:06:32,520
Speaker 1: Or if you don't trust QR codes I don't, you

1259
01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 1: can just go to FanDuel dot com forward slash Josh

1260
01:06:35,400 --> 01:06:38,880
Speaker 1: Pate and sign up and deposit however much you want.

1261
01:06:38,960 --> 01:06:42,040
Speaker 1: I don't care. Deposit ten dollars, deposit ten million dollars,

1262
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 1: probably a limit on the ten million. Give it to

1263
01:06:45,040 --> 01:06:47,600
Speaker 1: me and then I'll give it to them. But here's

1264
01:06:47,640 --> 01:06:50,120
Speaker 1: the important thing you need to note. There's a pretty

1265
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 1: easy way to get more money and it's very low risk.

1266
01:06:53,320 --> 01:06:56,600
Speaker 1: Bet five dollars on anything, and if it wins, you

1267
01:06:56,600 --> 01:07:00,200
Speaker 1: get three hundred dollars in bonus bets. So you know,

1268
01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:02,880
Speaker 1: go find yourself like a nineteen point favorite this Saturday.

1269
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:05,960
Speaker 1: Just bet them on the money line. Bet five dollars

1270
01:07:06,000 --> 01:07:07,920
Speaker 1: on it. If it hits, you'll get three hundred dollars

1271
01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:11,400
Speaker 1: in bonus bets. That sounds free, Josh, No, legally it's not.

1272
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:14,040
Speaker 1: I cannot tell you that's free money because technically you

1273
01:07:14,040 --> 01:07:17,280
Speaker 1: could lose it. It's just not very likely that you lose.

1274
01:07:17,320 --> 01:07:20,880
Speaker 2: That must be twenty one plus and present in select

1275
01:07:20,880 --> 01:07:24,000
Speaker 2: states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or

1276
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:27,040
Speaker 2: eighteen plus and present in DC. First online real money

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01:07:27,040 --> 01:07:30,520
Speaker 2: wager only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as

1278
01:07:30,560 --> 01:07:33,480
Speaker 2: non withdrawable bonus bets, which expires seven days after receipt.

1279
01:07:33,640 --> 01:07:37,480
Speaker 2: Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com.

1280
01:07:37,520 --> 01:07:40,600
Speaker 2: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel

1281
01:07:40,640 --> 01:07:43,200
Speaker 2: dot com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven

1282
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 2: eight nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot

1283
01:07:46,320 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 2: org slash chat in Connecticut, or visit nd gambling Help

1284
01:07:49,680 --> 01:07:53,520
Speaker 2: dot org in Maryland. Hope is here? Visit Gambling Helplinema

1285
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:56,240
Speaker 2: dot org or call eight hundred three two seven fifty

1286
01:07:56,320 --> 01:07:59,040
Speaker 2: fifty for twenty four seven support in Massachusetts or call

1287
01:07:59,120 --> 01:08:01,240
Speaker 2: one eight seven, seven and eight Hope and why, or

1288
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:02,680
Speaker 2: text hope and why in New.

1289
01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:06,000
Speaker 1: York and I hope you don't lose these either. These

1290
01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:08,320
Speaker 1: are our Romnul Express best bets for the week. I

1291
01:08:08,360 --> 01:08:11,120
Speaker 1: have two more to add tonight, so I'm already on

1292
01:08:11,240 --> 01:08:13,400
Speaker 1: Vanderbilt plus twelve and a half. We got that one

1293
01:08:13,400 --> 01:08:16,080
Speaker 1: the other night. That number has dropped two points since then.

1294
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:18,920
Speaker 1: We are on wake Forest plus five and a half.

1295
01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:21,400
Speaker 1: I have rare good news. You can get six and

1296
01:08:21,439 --> 01:08:25,640
Speaker 1: a half right now. Here are two other games that

1297
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:29,960
Speaker 1: we're on, Mississippi State plus fourteen and a half at

1298
01:08:30,000 --> 01:08:36,759
Speaker 1: Texas A and M. Louisville. Just the sun the clouds

1299
01:08:36,800 --> 01:08:39,880
Speaker 1: broke and the sun shine down. Today, Louisville dropped to

1300
01:08:39,880 --> 01:08:41,479
Speaker 1: the number we want. They're at six and a half.

1301
01:08:41,520 --> 01:08:44,960
Speaker 1: Louisville minus six and a half against Virginia. Virginia, the

1302
01:08:45,000 --> 01:08:48,120
Speaker 1: team that just be Florida State. Yeah, aren't they on

1303
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:51,800
Speaker 1: added rest? Yeah? And wait, you're telling me they're getting

1304
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:54,519
Speaker 1: six and a half. Yeah, lay the points. Louisville's gonna

1305
01:08:54,520 --> 01:08:57,400
Speaker 1: win and cover. They haven't looked at you at all year. Well,

1306
01:08:57,439 --> 01:08:59,120
Speaker 1: they haven't looked like I thought they would all year,

1307
01:08:59,360 --> 01:09:02,280
Speaker 1: and Miller has been up and down. I think they're

1308
01:09:02,320 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 1: gonna be up on Saturday. So I'll take Louisville minus

1309
01:09:05,360 --> 01:09:07,280
Speaker 1: six and a half Mississippi State plus fourteen and a

1310
01:09:07,320 --> 01:09:14,240
Speaker 1: half along with Wake and Vandy. Remember remember remember follow

1311
01:09:14,320 --> 01:09:17,720
Speaker 1: on the socials at Josh Pate CFB Prez has got

1312
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:22,120
Speaker 1: the TikTok account cooking combination of us have the Instagram

1313
01:09:22,200 --> 01:09:24,760
Speaker 1: channel cooking plus the story on Instagram is where you

1314
01:09:24,840 --> 01:09:27,080
Speaker 1: get Friday night lines on Friday. It's where you get

1315
01:09:27,080 --> 01:09:29,880
Speaker 1: all the behind the scenes access on Saturday. I hit

1316
01:09:29,920 --> 01:09:32,679
Speaker 1: a ball like nine hundred feet in softball on Friday night.

1317
01:09:32,880 --> 01:09:35,880
Speaker 1: I put that in the timeline. Not metric system either,

1318
01:09:36,320 --> 01:09:40,280
Speaker 1: good old fashion Imperial system, just good good old fashioned feet.

1319
01:09:41,800 --> 01:09:45,360
Speaker 1: Probably probably said at some point by sheet, all right,

1320
01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:48,639
Speaker 1: I appreciate you guys. We'll be back at what time

1321
01:09:48,840 --> 01:09:51,960
Speaker 1: Jesse seven Eastern, sixth Central on Thursday night. We do

1322
01:09:52,000 --> 01:09:54,960
Speaker 1: the Thursday Show an hour earlier because of the pesky

1323
01:09:55,040 --> 01:09:59,720
Speaker 1: NFL four producer Jesse for director Bradley, I'm Josh Pate

1324
01:09:59,800 --> 01:10:02,439
Speaker 1: T take care. We will see you Thursday and until then,

1325
01:10:02,479 --> 01:10:03,040
Speaker 1: God bless.

1326
01:10:18,400 --> 01:10:20,719
Speaker 2: Must be twenty one plus and present in select states

1327
01:10:20,760 --> 01:10:23,839
Speaker 2: for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or eighteen

1328
01:10:23,840 --> 01:10:26,799
Speaker 2: plus and present in DC. First online real money wager

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01:10:26,880 --> 01:10:30,160
Speaker 2: only five dollars first deposit required. Bonus issued as non

1330
01:10:30,200 --> 01:10:33,640
Speaker 2: withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions

1331
01:10:33,640 --> 01:10:37,439
Speaker 2: apply see terms at sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling

1332
01:10:37,479 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 2: problem call one eight hundred gambler, or visit FanDuel dot

1333
01:10:40,360 --> 01:10:42,800
Speaker 2: com slash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight

1334
01:10:42,880 --> 01:10:45,960
Speaker 2: nine seventy seven seventy seven, or visit CCPG dot org

1335
01:10:46,000 --> 01:10:49,639
Speaker 2: slash chat in Connecticut, or visit nd Gamblinghelp dot org

1336
01:10:49,680 --> 01:10:53,639
Speaker 2: in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit Gambling Helplinema dot org

1337
01:10:53,760 --> 01:10:56,160
Speaker 2: or call eight hundred three two seven fifty fifty for

1338
01:10:56,200 --> 01:10:58,960
Speaker 2: twenty four seven support in Massachusetts, or call one eight

1339
01:10:59,000 --> 01:11:01,439
Speaker 2: seven seven eight Hope and Why or text hope and

1340
01:11:01,479 --> 01:11:02,280
Speaker 2: Why in New York