WEBVTT - Selects: How Zero Population Growth Works

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, everybody, it's your old pal Josh, and for this

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<v Speaker 1>week's select, I've chosen our twenty fifteen episode on zero population.

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<v Speaker 1>It's an extremely interesting episode about the upper limits of

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<v Speaker 1>human population that the Earth can handle, and interestingly, it's

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<v Speaker 1>also about just how many humans humanity can handle too.

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<v Speaker 1>When does eating soil and green make sense? Maybe you

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<v Speaker 1>can decide for yourself in this heady episode. Enjoy. Welcome

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<v Speaker 1>to Stuff You Should Know, a production of iHeartRadio. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>and welcome to the podcast. I'm Josh Clark and there's

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<v Speaker 1>Charles w. Chuck Bryant's This Stuff you Should Know podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>Jerry's over there. Uh, it's pretty much the norm yep, yep.

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<v Speaker 1>How you doing, man? How are you feeling?

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<v Speaker 2>It is spectaculate, a little rough.

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<v Speaker 1>Sir, Are you you'll make it through?

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<v Speaker 2>What? Yeah? Yesterday we righted the uh the beginnings of

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<v Speaker 2>Gin and Tonic season.

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<v Speaker 1>It's definitely that kind of weather, for sure.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's hard to not sit on the deck and

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<v Speaker 2>have a citrusy, delightful drink.

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<v Speaker 1>Nice going.

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<v Speaker 2>So I'm just a little sleepy, but I'm feeling good.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel like this topic is h is all about

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<v Speaker 2>being sort of down in the dumps.

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<v Speaker 1>A little bit. All it depends. It depends on where

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<v Speaker 1>you land, and you just place yourself pretty squarely in

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<v Speaker 1>the gloom and Doom camp.

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<v Speaker 2>My friend, No, I'm actually not in the doom and

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<v Speaker 2>Gloom camp.

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<v Speaker 1>I was about to say, which, if I remember correctly,

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<v Speaker 1>in our episode, was Malthus right about carrying capacity? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>You overtly said that you are an optimist.

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<v Speaker 2>That's right, not a Malthusian naysayer.

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<v Speaker 1>You know.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I forgot about that one. We've touched on this

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<v Speaker 2>a few times.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh huh. We talked about We did a whole profile

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<v Speaker 1>in Norman Borlog alone on our very short lived and

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<v Speaker 1>reasonably so live webcast.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh yeah, do you.

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<v Speaker 1>Remember we did basically a book report on Borlog.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he was well, I think he's even controversial.

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<v Speaker 1>He is very much so.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, you win a Nobel Prize but.

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<v Speaker 1>For saving a billion lives.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but still people are gonna poo poo you yep,

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<v Speaker 2>you get poop pood interesting stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you don't know what we're talking about, you

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<v Speaker 1>should probably press pause, go listen to the Mauthus episode,

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<v Speaker 1>go to stuff you should know dot com slash podcasts.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's plural slash archive. Make that your homepage

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<v Speaker 1>and all seven hundred and change episodes are there, and

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<v Speaker 1>then do control f is everybody doing this so far?

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<v Speaker 1>And then type in mouths M A L T h

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<v Speaker 1>U S. It's gonna highlight that link, click that and

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<v Speaker 1>press play and then come back to us. That's right,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll wait boom. So so we're back.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been an hour.

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<v Speaker 1>What we're talking about is carrying capacity in part. But

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<v Speaker 1>carrying capacity, Chuckers, is just kind of a it's a

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<v Speaker 1>reflection of a larger issue, and that larger issue is population,

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<v Speaker 1>specifically overpopulation.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and is that a thing or not is a

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<v Speaker 2>big question.

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<v Speaker 1>Because I mean, at any given point in time, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they have, like the CIA World back Book has, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty good assessment of how many people are alive.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a total guess. It's a total estimate. We could

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<v Speaker 1>be at ten billion right now, we could be at

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred million, and everybody just is really terrible at counting.

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<v Speaker 1>The point is, we don't specifically know. It's probably pretty accurate, sure,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's still a guess. The point isn't to shoot

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<v Speaker 1>holes in the estimates of how many people are alive,

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<v Speaker 1>on the planet. It's to point out that, like, there's

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<v Speaker 1>so many people we don't know and we can't possibly

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<v Speaker 1>know at any given point in time, and that has

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<v Speaker 1>led a lot of people to say, well, wait a minute.

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<v Speaker 1>There's this thing called carrying capacity, which is the Earth's

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<v Speaker 1>ability to support and sustain us humans and really any creatures.

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<v Speaker 1>But really, we're just kind of concerned with us humans

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<v Speaker 1>at this moment and with a quality of life, right

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<v Speaker 1>and sustainably. Yes, those two factors have to be met

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<v Speaker 1>or else you're putting a tremendous amount of stress on

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<v Speaker 1>Earth and you're eventually bringing about your own demise. So

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people are saying, like, we're probably past

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<v Speaker 1>caring capacity and we just don't know it yet, right,

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<v Speaker 1>or other people are saying, there's really no such thing

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<v Speaker 1>as caring capacity. Thanks to human ingenuity, anytime we come

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<v Speaker 1>up against it, we'll figure out a way around it.

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<v Speaker 1>And Norman Borlog was a way to go. But before

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<v Speaker 1>Borlog really became famous, there was a lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>who were legitimately concerned that we were all going to die.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah Borlog, if you haven't listened to that one, if

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<v Speaker 2>you didn't follow Josh's instructions like a good little podcast listener.

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<v Speaker 2>He was one of the leaders of the Green Revolution

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<v Speaker 2>in the sixties and seventies, in which we made great

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<v Speaker 2>advances in agricultural in agriculture, in yields. Yeah, new types

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<v Speaker 2>of wheat in Mexico, new types of rice in India

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<v Speaker 2>that yielded much much more than they ever had.

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<v Speaker 1>And plus they were drought resistant, flood resistant. They could

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<v Speaker 1>stand up and hold more grain.

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<v Speaker 2>They could stand up and say hello.

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<v Speaker 1>They basically they could pick the daily double at high Leaya.

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<v Speaker 2>So Borlog was, you know, by all standards, a very

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<v Speaker 2>smart guy. He cared very much about people.

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<v Speaker 1>He wasn't doing it for fame or riches or anything

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<v Speaker 1>like that. Like this guy felt like he was working

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<v Speaker 1>against the clock. And if he didn't and he wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>the only one doing this, yeah he's the most famous.

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<v Speaker 1>But if he didn't do it, then, yeah, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people were going to starve.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. And I think I proposed to you before this

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<v Speaker 2>that we do just one on the Green Revolution. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think that will be a one two three

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<v Speaker 2>podcast suite. I can't plain this one.

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<v Speaker 1>I love this stuff. Yeah, Psychology population that was another

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<v Speaker 1>and what we did too, was how population Works. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and it sounds so like I bleedingly boring, but it

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<v Speaker 1>turned out to be really interesting stuff. So go read

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<v Speaker 1>that too. We'll wait, go ahead, we'll pause.

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<v Speaker 2>And we're back, and it's nineteen sixty eight.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and everybody's a little nervous.

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<v Speaker 2>Everyone is nervous. And Stanford biology professor Paul Erlick. There's

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<v Speaker 2>another famous Paul Erwick. This is Paul our Airlick. I believe.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh it's a different one.

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<v Speaker 2>Well there's two, dude.

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<v Speaker 1>I did not realize that.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you mean.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'm familiar with the other Erlk. Then I guess, well,

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<v Speaker 1>who was the other one?

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<v Speaker 2>Again?

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<v Speaker 1>He wrote some other famous books. He's a biologist. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's not the same guy.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. The other guy was a German physician who worked

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<v Speaker 2>in chemotherapy, immunology.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, that's not what I'm thinking of.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, different guy.

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<v Speaker 1>So this guy he wrote other things besides The Population Bomb.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so in nineteen sixty eight, he writes the Population Bomb,

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<v Speaker 2>goes on the Tonight Show, it explodes, this huge hit.

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<v Speaker 1>Apparently he was on more than once.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and everyone got super nervous because his book started

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<v Speaker 2>with these words, the battle de f he edd all

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<v Speaker 2>of humanity is over.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh good.

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<v Speaker 2>In the nineteen seventies, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds

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<v Speaker 2>of millions of people are going to starve to death

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<v Speaker 2>in spite of any crash programs embarked upon.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, oh, that's not so good.

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<v Speaker 2>That's how he starts his book. He basically says there's

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<v Speaker 2>going to be a Malthusian collapse. At one point in

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<v Speaker 2>the book he said, if I was a betting man,

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<v Speaker 2>I would wager by the year two thousand, England won't

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<v Speaker 2>be around.

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<v Speaker 1>Boom. He drops the mic. Yeah, and we should probably

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<v Speaker 1>mention who mauthusays. Thomas Mauthis was a very forward thinking, smart,

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<v Speaker 1>mathematically inclined minister, I believe in the early nineteenth century,

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<v Speaker 1>late eighteenth century. Yeah, an economist, and he was the

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<v Speaker 1>one who said we have a problem here everyone. I've

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<v Speaker 1>just done the math. And population grows exponentially, but our

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<v Speaker 1>foods apply grows linearly, and so we are destined to

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<v Speaker 1>outgrow our food supply. And that's where the idea of

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<v Speaker 1>carrying capacity came from. So Malthus and Malthusians are the

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<v Speaker 1>people who think like we're going to exceed the food

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<v Speaker 1>supply eventually and die from famines. And ERLK was one

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<v Speaker 1>of the most vocal and alarmist neo Malthusians around.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, absolutely, and he scared the pants off of people.

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<v Speaker 2>Back then. In nineteen sixty eight there were about three

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<v Speaker 2>and a half billion people, and the birth rate. We're

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<v Speaker 2>going to talk a lot about birth rates and such,

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<v Speaker 2>because there's a lot to do with this.

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<v Speaker 1>Buckle up.

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<v Speaker 2>The American women had three and a half babies on average,

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<v Speaker 2>and the global birth rate was five babies per woman.

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<v Speaker 2>Seems like a lot to me. It was a lot

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<v Speaker 2>five kids.

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<v Speaker 1>Supposedly, in the fifties we were at six the global

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<v Speaker 1>average fertility it was six babies per woman. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>not just per woman. That's you want to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>fertility rates, sure, So, fertility rate basically is the number

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<v Speaker 1>of live births that a population has assigned to the

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<v Speaker 1>population of women thought to reasonably be a reproductive age.

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<v Speaker 1>So fifteen to forty four times a thousand, So you

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<v Speaker 1>take all of those, figure out the how many women

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<v Speaker 1>there are, and then you multiply it by a thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>so you have something like fifty berths per one thousand

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<v Speaker 1>women age fifteen to forty four and that's your fertility rate. Yeah, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>that's you can figure out how many actual births are

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<v Speaker 1>taking place.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, with reasonable detail. Yeah. So like malthus Erlich did

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<v Speaker 2>the math in the sixties and said, you know what,

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<v Speaker 2>our food production isn't keeping up, just like Mautha said,

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<v Speaker 2>we're in big, big trouble, wrote the population Bomb and

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<v Speaker 2>co founded Zero Population Growth, which is an organization that

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<v Speaker 2>is now called what.

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<v Speaker 1>Are they called now, Population Connection?

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<v Speaker 2>Population Connection very a little sunnier.

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<v Speaker 1>Sounds electric company.

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<v Speaker 2>It does, and you should check out their website. It's good.

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<v Speaker 2>They have a lot of good information on them, just

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<v Speaker 2>to help you, you know, figure out what you might

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<v Speaker 2>want to believe. So people are scared the Zero Population

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<v Speaker 2>Growth group. Their aim is to uh, their big thing

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<v Speaker 2>is is contraception and giving women control of their reproduction

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<v Speaker 2>basically and their fertility. Right, that's the you decide how

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<v Speaker 2>many kids you want exactly they have that many.

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<v Speaker 1>They've identified that that there's an issue that could easily

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<v Speaker 1>address over population, and that is cutting out unwanted pregnancies

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<v Speaker 1>or pregnancies or having unwanted kids. They've identified that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>plenty of people there are two different fertility rates. There's

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<v Speaker 1>the wanted fertility rate and then there's the unwanted fertility rate.

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<v Speaker 1>Pretty much across the b in any country in the world,

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<v Speaker 1>the unwanted fertility rate is higher, whether slightly or largely,

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<v Speaker 1>than the wanted fertility rate. So they're saying, like, if

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<v Speaker 1>the unwanted fertility rate is like three point eight babies

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<v Speaker 1>per woman in a given country and the wanted fertility

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<v Speaker 1>rate is like two point five, well, if we can

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<v Speaker 1>just figure out a way to only have the wanted pregnancies,

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<v Speaker 1>then you are doing a lot to control over population.

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<v Speaker 1>And the way that they figured out how to address

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<v Speaker 1>this is to just basically spread awareness and access to contraception.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, right, the two pronged approach. What their goal is

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<v Speaker 2>is they aren't saying that people should not have babies

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<v Speaker 2>like you said. They're saying people should only have the

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<v Speaker 2>babies that they want to have exactly, and their ultimate

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<v Speaker 2>goal is to have a sustainable global birth rate below

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<v Speaker 2>the replacement level, which means there's a lot of different factors,

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<v Speaker 2>but it basically means that the world is not growing.

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<v Speaker 2>When it's like working a club at a door, being

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<v Speaker 2>a doorman, one person goes out, one person comes in. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>you got a little clicker. Yeah, that's basically what that

0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:13.079
<v Speaker 2>means is, you know, someone dies, someone can be born, right,

0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:14.560
<v Speaker 2>and of course it's not that one to one, but

0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:15.640
<v Speaker 2>you know, well.

0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:16.920
<v Speaker 1>If you're in a big picture a way, if you're

0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:19.880
<v Speaker 1>a bouncer and you're tasked with keeping it an even ratio,

0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:22.240
<v Speaker 1>you just have to remember that you can't keep people

0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:28.040
<v Speaker 1>inside until a new person comes along, because that's called kidnapping. Yeah,

0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:30.160
<v Speaker 1>you still they still have to leave and you have

0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:32.000
<v Speaker 1>to deal with an imbalance for a little while.

0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:36.000
<v Speaker 2>That's true. Right now. The replacement level of fertility rate

0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:38.400
<v Speaker 2>in the US is two point one babies for woman

0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:42.960
<v Speaker 2>and three point zero and other developing countries because they

0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:45.560
<v Speaker 2>have higher death rates and shorter lifespans, which makes sense.

0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:50.880
<v Speaker 1>So we were onto the replacement rate basically, right, Yeah.

0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:54.880
<v Speaker 1>The replacement rate is the number of kids a woman

0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:58.839
<v Speaker 1>of reproductive age would have to have to replace herself.

0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:02.960
<v Speaker 1>And she's not just replacing herself, she's replacing herself and

0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:07.720
<v Speaker 1>her male mate who she's reproducing with. Yes, yeah, and

0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:09.520
<v Speaker 1>it's kind of gross to think that a woman is

0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:12.120
<v Speaker 1>giving birth to a boy and a girl who can

0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.880
<v Speaker 1>mate and reproduce her. That's not the point you want

0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:18.440
<v Speaker 1>them to go mingle with other people's babies. But the

0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 1>replacement rate, you would think then is two, right for

0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:25.360
<v Speaker 1>every woman two point zero kids is what you need

0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.160
<v Speaker 1>to have to have an even replacement rate. That means

0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:31.000
<v Speaker 1>it is people die, new people are born, and the

0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:34.560
<v Speaker 1>population ever grows or declines, it stays the same. The

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.160
<v Speaker 1>replacement rate is never actually two point zero.

0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 2>Though, those two point one right now.

0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:42.080
<v Speaker 1>And the reason why is because we humans tend to

0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:47.280
<v Speaker 1>have more male offspring than female. Apparently for every one

0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>hundred girls that are born, one hundred and seven boys

0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:53.280
<v Speaker 1>are born, So the actual replacement rate is two point

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:55.920
<v Speaker 1>zero seven and then they round up to two point one.

0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:57.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Plus there's I mean, there's a lot of other

0:13:57.800 --> 0:13:59.240
<v Speaker 2>factors too, for sure. Yeah.

0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:04.960
<v Speaker 1>Other factors include things like you said, like infant mortality rates, lifespan,

0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:10.280
<v Speaker 1>immigration into a certain area, And the thing is of

0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 1>birth rates or fertility rates and replacement rates. The replacement

0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:19.240
<v Speaker 1>rate tends to be a little more stable the birth rate.

0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:21.360
<v Speaker 1>The fertility rate has a lot more to do with

0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:26.960
<v Speaker 1>social attitudes, access to healthcare, education, and it can change

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 1>dramatically from place to place, whereas say, anywhere in the

0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:34.640
<v Speaker 1>Western world, the developed world, the replacement rates about two

0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:35.160
<v Speaker 1>point one.

0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeh, exactly, that's in the three point zero for the

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:41.160
<v Speaker 2>developing countries.

0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 1>All the demographers just stood up and were clapping.

0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:49.720
<v Speaker 2>So clearly Eric was not correct in his dire predictions.

0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 1>Still well off.

0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:55.080
<v Speaker 2>Here we are in twenty fifteen and there are problems,

0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:58.080
<v Speaker 2>but England is still around. That was a bad prediction,

0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:03.520
<v Speaker 2>four billion people having starved to death. But does that

0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 2>mean that he was wrong altogether? No, not necessarily, because

0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:11.640
<v Speaker 2>right now, and this was a pretty startling stat to me,

0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:14.200
<v Speaker 2>over the past one hundred and ten years, we have

0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 2>grown from one point six billion people to seven point

0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.400
<v Speaker 2>two billion people in one hundred and ten years.

0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:22.840
<v Speaker 1>Well, we're expected to get up to nine point two

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 1>in another thirty five years by twenty fifty.

0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.840
<v Speaker 2>And so one of the reasons we have this many people,

0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:33.880
<v Speaker 2>most of the reasons are positive because of like advances

0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:37.720
<v Speaker 2>in healthcare. The lifespan in nineteen hundred was thirty one

0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:40.480
<v Speaker 2>years old, and now it's seventy or maybe even a

0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:43.800
<v Speaker 2>little bit higher, because that was twenty twelve. Yeah, so

0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:45.760
<v Speaker 2>imagine it is a little bit higher. And the infant

0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:49.360
<v Speaker 2>mortality rate globally in nineteen hundred was one hundred and

0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:53.320
<v Speaker 2>sixty five deaths per one thousand live births. In twenty

0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:56.280
<v Speaker 2>thirteen it was down to thirty four. So that's why

0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 2>there's more peoples, because we're doing better at taking care

0:15:58.600 --> 0:15:59.160
<v Speaker 2>of ourselves.

0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:04.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, are two huge factors when it comes to demographics

0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:08.360
<v Speaker 1>and population, because the longer you live, the more old

0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:11.160
<v Speaker 1>people you have, so therefore, the less babies you need

0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:15.920
<v Speaker 1>to replace those people, and the fewer babies that die

0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:21.280
<v Speaker 1>or that survive infancy will be adults one day exactly. Yeah,

0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.480
<v Speaker 1>but these are the really if you're a demographer, the

0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 1>sweet spot is that working age. So when you're a demographer,

0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:33.520
<v Speaker 1>especially one that's economics minded, Chuck, Yes, that sweet spot

0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:38.400
<v Speaker 1>the reproductive working age people. That's a good sizable population

0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:40.640
<v Speaker 1>you want to have. If you have a lot of babies,

0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:42.960
<v Speaker 1>well then you have a lot of people who are

0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:45.840
<v Speaker 1>raising those babies, so those babies are dependent on So

0:16:45.960 --> 0:16:48.359
<v Speaker 1>say you have a lot fewer women in the workforce,

0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 1>so your workforce is depleted. If you have a lot

0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:53.600
<v Speaker 1>of like an aging population, you have a lot of

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:56.520
<v Speaker 1>older people who have already aged out of the workforce

0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:59.920
<v Speaker 1>and are now dependent on the taxes paid by that workforce.

0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:00.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:04.479
<v Speaker 1>So a large population of either babies or old people,

0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:07.320
<v Speaker 1>and god forbid both at the same time. It puts

0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:09.639
<v Speaker 1>a lot of strain on the middle. Yeah, you know

0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:13.159
<v Speaker 1>what I'm saying. Sure, So when you have a longer

0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:17.919
<v Speaker 1>life expectancy and a lower infant mortality rate like we

0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:20.439
<v Speaker 1>have now in the developed world, you want to have

0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:22.800
<v Speaker 1>something closer to the replacement rate.

0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:24.400
<v Speaker 2>Right, you know, which makes sense?

0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:24.760
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:28.600
<v Speaker 2>I got some more stats too that would seem to

0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:32.520
<v Speaker 2>back up Airlick's predictions, or not predictions, but at least

0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:33.400
<v Speaker 2>his gloomy outlook.

0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:35.680
<v Speaker 1>He was a gloomy dude currently.

0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:39.160
<v Speaker 2>You know, I couldn't find much on what he felt today. Yeah,

0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:42.120
<v Speaker 2>I'm curious he's still around. I'm curious. I bet there's

0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:45.160
<v Speaker 2>some good interviews. I'm going to check that out. So currently,

0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:48.600
<v Speaker 2>as of last year, an estimated eight hundred and five

0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 2>million people go to bed Hungary every night, more than

0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.320
<v Speaker 2>half of which are in Asia. One in four people

0:17:55.359 --> 0:18:00.560
<v Speaker 2>in Sub Saharan Africa was chronically malnourished. One hundred and

0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:05.040
<v Speaker 2>fifty million people worldwide lack access to clean water, contributing

0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 2>to about eight hundred and fifty thousand deaths per year.

0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:13.400
<v Speaker 2>And here's the thing, though, is we're living in cities

0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:17.040
<v Speaker 2>now more than ever. People are moving into cities, which

0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:19.959
<v Speaker 2>is a good thing in one way because it provides

0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:24.520
<v Speaker 2>a lot of opportunity, economic opportunity for people, especially in

0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 2>developing countries. But when you look at these cities, a

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:32.159
<v Speaker 2>lot of them are full of slums and sweatshops. In

0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:34.040
<v Speaker 2>these developing nations, something.

0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:36.640
<v Speaker 1>Like half of the population and a lot of cities

0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:38.760
<v Speaker 1>live in slum conditions.

0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:40.840
<v Speaker 2>Yes, without are in Africa sixty one percent.

0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:44.919
<v Speaker 1>So you think sub Saharan Africa, I think rural in

0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:47.919
<v Speaker 1>a lot of ways. So yes, I'm aware that they

0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:51.760
<v Speaker 1>lack access to clean drinking water, and that's an issue

0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.680
<v Speaker 1>that Sub Saharan Africa faces. Yes, you don't think about

0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:57.480
<v Speaker 1>that being an issue in a city, But the problem

0:18:57.560 --> 0:19:00.880
<v Speaker 1>with slums is they very rarely have access to clean

0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:03.560
<v Speaker 1>drinking water in the exact same way that places like

0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:05.520
<v Speaker 1>rural Africa have the same problem.

0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:08.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and we're not even I mean, that's that's clean

0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:11.560
<v Speaker 2>drinking water, and like sanitation and shelter. We're not even

0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:15.080
<v Speaker 2>talking about education and healthcare and like all the things

0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:18.480
<v Speaker 2>that people need to live a fruitful life. You know, yep,

0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:22.359
<v Speaker 2>So cities are a problem. Even if Eric was wrong,

0:19:22.960 --> 0:19:26.800
<v Speaker 2>there are clearly issues. Some people will argue, and we'll

0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:28.959
<v Speaker 2>get to the critics and stuff later, but a lot

0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:31.520
<v Speaker 2>of people argue that it's distribution of food and stuff

0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:34.159
<v Speaker 2>like that, Like, we have the resources, we're just not

0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:35.960
<v Speaker 2>dividing it out properly.

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:41.520
<v Speaker 1>Right. And apparently, if I read that, if everyone lived

0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:45.800
<v Speaker 1>like an American and consumed like an American does, yeah,

0:19:45.960 --> 0:19:48.679
<v Speaker 1>the caring capacity would be something like two billion, So

0:19:48.720 --> 0:19:51.200
<v Speaker 1>we would have already far exceeded it. Sure, but if

0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:53.920
<v Speaker 1>everybody lived with just the minimal amount that they need

0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:57.280
<v Speaker 1>to live, the carring capacity would be something like forty billion.

0:19:57.640 --> 0:20:00.760
<v Speaker 1>We've been able to sustain the car as it is

0:20:00.840 --> 0:20:03.960
<v Speaker 1>right now because not everybody lives like an American. But

0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:06.560
<v Speaker 1>if you're an American, that means that a lot of

0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:09.560
<v Speaker 1>the other world, especially developing world, thinks that you are

0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:13.720
<v Speaker 1>over consuming by a lot. And that's really evident in

0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:16.840
<v Speaker 1>there's a graph that went around recently that shows water

0:20:16.960 --> 0:20:21.160
<v Speaker 1>use in agriculture by type of product, so everything from

0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:25.000
<v Speaker 1>like soy to beef. It showed how much water, oh yeah,

0:20:25.040 --> 0:20:25.680
<v Speaker 1>did you see that.

0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:27.719
<v Speaker 2>I didn't see that, but I've seen stuff like that,

0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:30.520
<v Speaker 2>because beef is like a huge consumer of water.

0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:33.320
<v Speaker 1>Right, one hundred and six point two eight gallons of

0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:38.240
<v Speaker 1>water used to produce one ounce of beef. That's a lot.

0:20:38.359 --> 0:20:41.280
<v Speaker 1>That's a lot of water. And so that's that's part

0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:44.760
<v Speaker 1>of the point. Whereas if everybody's and apparently in China

0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:49.959
<v Speaker 1>and India and these ascending countries with ascending economies, one

0:20:50.000 --> 0:20:52.679
<v Speaker 1>of the great benefits of being part of the developed

0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:55.520
<v Speaker 1>world is you can get steak anytime you want, baby, Yeah,

0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:57.879
<v Speaker 1>and I want a big one right now, put it

0:20:57.880 --> 0:20:59.960
<v Speaker 1>in front of me. I'll give you some money here. Here,

0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:03.040
<v Speaker 1>just take this and put in your pocket. There's some

0:21:03.080 --> 0:21:05.560
<v Speaker 1>money for you. Give me my stake, and you don't

0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:07.960
<v Speaker 1>care how much water it took. Yeah, And it's there

0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:12.240
<v Speaker 1>these people who are saying they don't necessarily agree with Aeric,

0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:14.720
<v Speaker 1>but they're saying he wasn't totally.

0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:17.280
<v Speaker 2>Off right, he was alarmed as clearly they're a problems.

0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:19.840
<v Speaker 1>They're saying, this is one of the problems, right, you know,

0:21:19.920 --> 0:21:21.719
<v Speaker 1>this is one of the problems with too many people.

0:21:22.240 --> 0:21:26.680
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and so getting back to contraception and zero population

0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:31.400
<v Speaker 2>growth are now the population connection their big goal. They

0:21:31.400 --> 0:21:33.879
<v Speaker 2>say there are two hundred and twenty two million women

0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:36.560
<v Speaker 2>in the developing world who have an unmet need for

0:21:36.600 --> 0:21:40.560
<v Speaker 2>family planning. So they're not saying, you know, we want

0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:42.240
<v Speaker 2>to put our ideals on you and you shouldn't be

0:21:42.280 --> 0:21:44.600
<v Speaker 2>having kids. They're saying they are that many women that

0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:47.920
<v Speaker 2>are like, I don't want these five kids I would

0:21:47.960 --> 0:21:51.399
<v Speaker 2>have wanted to, and I either don't know about contraception,

0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:55.480
<v Speaker 2>don't have contraception, or I have literally no idea how

0:21:56.000 --> 0:21:56.959
<v Speaker 2>conception works.

0:21:57.200 --> 0:22:00.680
<v Speaker 1>Right. Sadly for a lot of them, say a lot

0:22:00.720 --> 0:22:04.920
<v Speaker 1>the first idea that women just need access to contraception

0:22:05.440 --> 0:22:08.440
<v Speaker 1>and they will use it. Yeah, and they're they're they're

0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:11.080
<v Speaker 1>working on that, right, sure, but they've found in studies

0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:13.439
<v Speaker 1>it's something like ten percent or less of the women

0:22:13.520 --> 0:22:19.280
<v Speaker 1>who are defined as having unmet contraceptive needs cite a

0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:23.960
<v Speaker 1>lack of access as to why they're having unwanted kids. Instead,

0:22:23.960 --> 0:22:27.160
<v Speaker 1>they're saying it's things like family pressure or societal pressure

0:22:27.200 --> 0:22:30.359
<v Speaker 1>to have a bunch of kids. Like you're saying, like

0:22:30.440 --> 0:22:33.480
<v Speaker 1>not understanding contraception or how conception works.

0:22:33.560 --> 0:22:36.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they say they don't believe that they need contraception.

0:22:36.320 --> 0:22:40.320
<v Speaker 2>If you have sex infrequently or after birth, after I've

0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:42.639
<v Speaker 2>had one kid, we don't need to use contraception anymore,

0:22:43.240 --> 0:22:47.640
<v Speaker 2>like literally not knowing how conception works. Right, So that's

0:22:47.680 --> 0:22:52.680
<v Speaker 2>a big educational hurdle that Population Connection is trying to overcome.

0:22:52.800 --> 0:22:56.520
<v Speaker 1>Right, So they're saying it's not just getting contraception to women,

0:22:56.720 --> 0:22:59.480
<v Speaker 1>it's educating them on how to use it and changing

0:22:59.600 --> 0:23:00.680
<v Speaker 1>their social outlook.

0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:04.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, changing the culture. Yeah, largely men, you know, saying

0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:08.800
<v Speaker 2>one more babies, right, you know, like revolutionary road or something,

0:23:08.880 --> 0:23:12.560
<v Speaker 2>you know. All Right, so we're going to talk a

0:23:12.600 --> 0:23:15.080
<v Speaker 2>little bit after the break about what the critics of

0:23:15.200 --> 0:23:30.919
<v Speaker 2>zero population growth have to say.

0:23:42.040 --> 0:23:46.960
<v Speaker 1>So we're back. Yes, we're talking about solutions to overpopulation,

0:23:47.040 --> 0:23:49.680
<v Speaker 1>but not everybody thinks it's a problem. Yeah, some people

0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:52.680
<v Speaker 1>say over population is a myth. Yeah, they say that.

0:23:52.800 --> 0:23:58.320
<v Speaker 1>Eric in and of it himself damaged his own argument.

0:23:58.600 --> 0:24:00.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he got a lot of personal heat.

0:24:00.240 --> 0:24:03.159
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, still does because of the language he used. It

0:24:03.240 --> 0:24:06.040
<v Speaker 1>was so alarmist, starting his book off with you know

0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:07.960
<v Speaker 1>that we've already lost and no matter what we do,

0:24:08.359 --> 0:24:11.359
<v Speaker 1>billions of people are going to die. And then it

0:24:11.440 --> 0:24:14.280
<v Speaker 1>not panning out, saying that England wasn't going to be

0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:17.240
<v Speaker 1>around in thirty years. I mean, that was putting a

0:24:17.280 --> 0:24:21.119
<v Speaker 1>lot on the line, and so a lot of people said,

0:24:20.280 --> 0:24:28.000
<v Speaker 1>your specific landmarks or milestones were unmet. Therefore your whole

0:24:28.080 --> 0:24:31.920
<v Speaker 1>arguments out the window. And some people believe that other

0:24:31.920 --> 0:24:35.840
<v Speaker 1>people are like, that's not necessarily true. That is alarmist

0:24:35.920 --> 0:24:39.600
<v Speaker 1>as well, possibly your reaction area at least. But some

0:24:39.640 --> 0:24:43.159
<v Speaker 1>people say I still don't agree with erlik because humans

0:24:43.200 --> 0:24:46.040
<v Speaker 1>are smart. We can figure our way out of any problem.

0:24:46.280 --> 0:24:49.960
<v Speaker 2>That's right. Critics will say that humans are not parasites

0:24:50.000 --> 0:24:53.159
<v Speaker 2>of the earth. We are the saviors of Earth, and

0:24:53.240 --> 0:24:55.000
<v Speaker 2>we are the ones that are coming up with these

0:24:55.000 --> 0:24:59.919
<v Speaker 2>solutions like the Green Revolution and longer lifespans and progress

0:25:00.000 --> 0:25:02.080
<v Speaker 2>sing medically to help people live longer.

0:25:02.200 --> 0:25:05.640
<v Speaker 1>I don't know about saviors of Earth. I think that's

0:25:05.640 --> 0:25:08.600
<v Speaker 1>stretching it a little bit. I think we abstract a

0:25:08.600 --> 0:25:10.880
<v Speaker 1>little too much to be called saviors of Earth.

0:25:11.040 --> 0:25:12.960
<v Speaker 2>Well, I guarantee you there's a lot of people that

0:25:13.000 --> 0:25:15.159
<v Speaker 2>think humans are saviors of Earth. Sure, you know.

0:25:15.400 --> 0:25:17.840
<v Speaker 1>I would see us more as like Homer with Pinchy

0:25:17.880 --> 0:25:20.359
<v Speaker 1>the lobster again in the salt water and fresh water,

0:25:20.800 --> 0:25:24.119
<v Speaker 1>trying to strike the balance I wouldn't call him a

0:25:24.160 --> 0:25:26.919
<v Speaker 1>savior of either the Goldfish or Pinchy at that moment.

0:25:27.000 --> 0:25:30.080
<v Speaker 1>He's just keeping them both in stasis.

0:25:30.080 --> 0:25:32.000
<v Speaker 2>How many times would you reference Pinchy the lot that's

0:25:32.000 --> 0:25:34.720
<v Speaker 2>probably seven seven. Yeah, it's not bad. It's one for

0:25:34.760 --> 0:25:39.080
<v Speaker 2>every one hundred shows roughly. Other critics will say that

0:25:39.560 --> 0:25:42.240
<v Speaker 2>low birth rates are no good for the economy, like

0:25:42.280 --> 0:25:46.719
<v Speaker 2>you were talking about earlier, older people and babies. Well,

0:25:46.760 --> 0:25:48.680
<v Speaker 2>I guess low birth rates wouldn't affect that, but older

0:25:48.720 --> 0:25:52.400
<v Speaker 2>people are more of a tax on society than they

0:25:52.400 --> 0:25:54.720
<v Speaker 2>are spinders right and investors right.

0:25:54.800 --> 0:25:57.400
<v Speaker 1>But in the same way, if you have too many babies,

0:25:57.440 --> 0:26:00.439
<v Speaker 1>that's a big tax. Eventually that those babies will be

0:26:00.480 --> 0:26:01.199
<v Speaker 1>a workforce.

0:26:01.400 --> 0:26:03.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, like we spend money exactly.

0:26:03.320 --> 0:26:09.679
<v Speaker 1>So the baby boom and the post war boom economic

0:26:09.720 --> 0:26:12.719
<v Speaker 1>boom in the United States, it's not coincidental that they

0:26:12.760 --> 0:26:14.720
<v Speaker 1>went hand in hand. There are a bunch of people

0:26:14.720 --> 0:26:18.640
<v Speaker 1>having babies and eventually they grew into the workforce and

0:26:18.760 --> 0:26:21.359
<v Speaker 1>they made a bunch of money in the eighties for

0:26:21.440 --> 0:26:22.360
<v Speaker 1>the United States.

0:26:22.680 --> 0:26:26.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and it's also supported in developing countries. More than

0:26:26.400 --> 0:26:30.160
<v Speaker 2>seventy countries are categorized now as low fertility with two

0:26:30.240 --> 0:26:35.120
<v Speaker 2>babies or less per woman, and those areas are expected

0:26:35.160 --> 0:26:38.520
<v Speaker 2>to make big economic gains in the coming decades because

0:26:38.920 --> 0:26:42.280
<v Speaker 2>they're going to be people to spend money right and

0:26:42.320 --> 0:26:43.040
<v Speaker 2>be in the workforce.

0:26:43.240 --> 0:26:48.200
<v Speaker 1>And there's kind of a few ways that the workforce

0:26:48.359 --> 0:26:52.479
<v Speaker 1>and wealth in the economy and birth rates are all

0:26:52.560 --> 0:26:55.400
<v Speaker 1>kind of tied together too. It turns out that if

0:26:55.440 --> 0:27:01.160
<v Speaker 1>you give a woman rights to her own contraceptive decisions,

0:27:01.240 --> 0:27:05.160
<v Speaker 1>ye sure, the birth rate tends to inevitably fall as

0:27:05.200 --> 0:27:09.000
<v Speaker 1>a result. And then when that happens, it happens because

0:27:09.080 --> 0:27:11.760
<v Speaker 1>some women have more babies than they want to when

0:27:11.800 --> 0:27:16.000
<v Speaker 1>they don't have right to their own contraceptive decisions. Another

0:27:16.040 --> 0:27:19.320
<v Speaker 1>reason is when they have those kind of rights, they

0:27:19.400 --> 0:27:22.040
<v Speaker 1>usually also have the right to an education. When they

0:27:22.320 --> 0:27:25.600
<v Speaker 1>enter school, they will tend to put off having kids

0:27:26.040 --> 0:27:29.000
<v Speaker 1>because once they graduate from school, they'll usually enter the workforce,

0:27:29.359 --> 0:27:31.600
<v Speaker 1>and so just by nature of getting to the whole

0:27:31.640 --> 0:27:34.520
<v Speaker 1>thing later on in life, they're having fewer kids as well.

0:27:35.520 --> 0:27:38.639
<v Speaker 1>And when you have more educated women in the workforce,

0:27:38.680 --> 0:27:42.520
<v Speaker 1>your economy is stronger too, So directly and by proxy,

0:27:43.760 --> 0:27:47.159
<v Speaker 1>lower birth rates are associated with the stronger economy. But again,

0:27:47.480 --> 0:27:49.439
<v Speaker 1>you don't want to get too low, because if you

0:27:49.480 --> 0:27:51.960
<v Speaker 1>get too low, then all of a sudden, the generation

0:27:52.359 --> 0:27:55.399
<v Speaker 1>before it started to taper off is going to be

0:27:55.440 --> 0:27:58.920
<v Speaker 1>bigger than the generation that's working. And if it costs

0:27:59.040 --> 0:28:02.399
<v Speaker 1>fifty thousand dollars in tax money to keep the average

0:28:02.400 --> 0:28:07.120
<v Speaker 1>retiree afloat, say in the United States, well that divided

0:28:07.119 --> 0:28:10.120
<v Speaker 1>by a thousand people is a lot easier to bear

0:28:10.359 --> 0:28:13.600
<v Speaker 1>than divided by one hundred people one hundred working people,

0:28:13.920 --> 0:28:14.480
<v Speaker 1>you know what I mean.

0:28:14.560 --> 0:28:16.800
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we got to keep the old folks and keep

0:28:16.800 --> 0:28:18.719
<v Speaker 2>them in stake and ovaltine right. You know.

0:28:19.000 --> 0:28:24.000
<v Speaker 1>So if you're an economist, a demographer, whatever, everybody's kind

0:28:24.000 --> 0:28:26.800
<v Speaker 1>of saying like, you want to get a country developed,

0:28:27.040 --> 0:28:28.480
<v Speaker 1>and you want to get them at that two point

0:28:28.560 --> 0:28:31.320
<v Speaker 1>one replacement rate, and everything will be hunky dory from there.

0:28:31.720 --> 0:28:34.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. And the other thing a critic might say, too,

0:28:34.480 --> 0:28:36.720
<v Speaker 2>is and this is what we were talking about earlier

0:28:36.760 --> 0:28:40.400
<v Speaker 2>about the environment, the impact on the environment, like we're

0:28:40.400 --> 0:28:42.280
<v Speaker 2>just going to destroy our world with so many people.

0:28:44.000 --> 0:28:48.680
<v Speaker 2>It turns out that impact carbon emissions aren't really tied

0:28:48.720 --> 0:28:52.760
<v Speaker 2>to population growth rates. It's tied to per capita income levels.

0:28:53.320 --> 0:28:55.880
<v Speaker 2>By evidence that China and the US have some of

0:28:55.880 --> 0:28:59.760
<v Speaker 2>the lowest fertility rates right now, and we are the worst.

0:29:01.200 --> 0:29:03.320
<v Speaker 2>So it's not because we have all these people, right

0:29:03.400 --> 0:29:08.520
<v Speaker 2>it's because we're consuming too much as Americans exactly, and

0:29:08.560 --> 0:29:09.880
<v Speaker 2>I guess in China as well.

0:29:10.400 --> 0:29:14.360
<v Speaker 1>Which actually makes it seem kind of nerve racking that sure,

0:29:14.640 --> 0:29:18.760
<v Speaker 1>India and China with these enormous populations are starting to

0:29:18.800 --> 0:29:22.880
<v Speaker 1>become wealthier and wealthier, because that's just going to make

0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:25.240
<v Speaker 1>it even worse as far as the environment goes.

0:29:25.960 --> 0:29:28.080
<v Speaker 2>Did you check out the Population Connection site?

0:29:28.920 --> 0:29:29.440
<v Speaker 1>No? I didn't.

0:29:29.600 --> 0:29:32.920
<v Speaker 2>They have a pretty interesting faq that if you don't

0:29:32.960 --> 0:29:35.200
<v Speaker 2>know where you stand, I mean, it's helpful to read.

0:29:36.000 --> 0:29:39.040
<v Speaker 2>Like they say things like, instead of we want to

0:29:39.080 --> 0:29:42.320
<v Speaker 2>focus on quality of life, not quantity, and instead of

0:29:42.360 --> 0:29:45.280
<v Speaker 2>saying how many people can the earth support, maybe how

0:29:45.280 --> 0:29:48.840
<v Speaker 2>many people can't orth support? Because right now, all these

0:29:49.000 --> 0:29:52.360
<v Speaker 2>people are dying from lack of you know, clean water

0:29:52.520 --> 0:29:57.240
<v Speaker 2>and sanitation and food. And there's the counter argument that

0:29:57.240 --> 0:29:59.120
<v Speaker 2>you hear from critics a lot. I've seen a stat

0:30:00.080 --> 0:30:04.560
<v Speaker 2>run around that the entire world's population could live in Texas, Texas.

0:30:04.760 --> 0:30:07.880
<v Speaker 1>It's so mind boggling. I have trouble like believing it. Well,

0:30:08.000 --> 0:30:09.960
<v Speaker 1>I think somebody forgot to carry a one or something.

0:30:10.080 --> 0:30:15.800
<v Speaker 2>No, it's true. Population Connection says, sure they can. You

0:30:15.840 --> 0:30:18.240
<v Speaker 2>could fit everyone in Texas. You could also fit forty

0:30:18.240 --> 0:30:21.960
<v Speaker 2>people in a phone booth. Yeah, but Texas, they said,

0:30:22.040 --> 0:30:25.160
<v Speaker 2>in no way has the carrying capacity to take care

0:30:25.200 --> 0:30:27.280
<v Speaker 2>of those people. So it's a little bit of a

0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:30.080
<v Speaker 2>hollow you know, fact that you throw out when you

0:30:30.120 --> 0:30:32.600
<v Speaker 2>say that, right, Like, sure you can jam everyone in there.

0:30:34.360 --> 0:30:35.360
<v Speaker 2>Texas would be like.

0:30:35.640 --> 0:30:38.120
<v Speaker 1>What are you guys doing here?

0:30:38.320 --> 0:30:42.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly, But it's pretty interesting stuff. I recommend people

0:30:42.040 --> 0:30:44.960
<v Speaker 2>read their FAQ. It seems like they definitely have the

0:30:45.040 --> 0:30:50.680
<v Speaker 2>right mindset because what they want to do is, you know,

0:30:50.760 --> 0:30:52.360
<v Speaker 2>make sure people have a good quality of life all

0:30:52.400 --> 0:30:52.960
<v Speaker 2>over the world.

0:30:53.040 --> 0:30:55.520
<v Speaker 1>Well, I will go read their FAQ because I suddenly

0:30:55.520 --> 0:30:59.160
<v Speaker 1>feel underprepared. But I will tell you that the impression

0:30:59.200 --> 0:31:01.760
<v Speaker 1>that I have from research them without going on their

0:31:01.800 --> 0:31:07.440
<v Speaker 1>website was I didn't find anything like beware population Connection

0:31:07.800 --> 0:31:11.280
<v Speaker 1>or the population Connection myth or anything like that. There's

0:31:11.280 --> 0:31:15.720
<v Speaker 1>definitely debate on the other side saying overpopulation is a myth,

0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:18.280
<v Speaker 1>but no one seems to be attacking Population Connection as

0:31:18.320 --> 0:31:19.760
<v Speaker 1>like a nefarious organization.

0:31:19.840 --> 0:31:22.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because they're not saying don't have babies.

0:31:21.880 --> 0:31:24.520
<v Speaker 1>Right, And that's a really sticky situation to be in

0:31:24.600 --> 0:31:27.080
<v Speaker 1>because a lot of people are like, well, God wants

0:31:27.120 --> 0:31:29.240
<v Speaker 1>us to have as many babies as we possibly can.

0:31:29.600 --> 0:31:31.760
<v Speaker 1>Who are you to be meddling in that kind of thing.

0:31:32.640 --> 0:31:34.840
<v Speaker 1>It's a fine line that a group like that has

0:31:34.880 --> 0:31:38.040
<v Speaker 1>to walk, and they seem to be walking at fine. Yeah,

0:31:38.160 --> 0:31:41.840
<v Speaker 1>they're just saying like, here's some contraception. Maybe let's not

0:31:41.920 --> 0:31:45.120
<v Speaker 1>have unwanted babies. Let those little angels stay in heaven

0:31:46.320 --> 0:31:48.520
<v Speaker 1>and we'll just go from there.

0:31:48.680 --> 0:32:20.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I think that's their homepage, all right, the Behavioral Sink.

0:32:20.960 --> 0:32:22.719
<v Speaker 2>What where did you find this?

0:32:23.800 --> 0:32:27.160
<v Speaker 1>I don't remember where I ran across it, but I'd

0:32:27.200 --> 0:32:28.800
<v Speaker 1>read it a while back. But I have to give

0:32:28.840 --> 0:32:31.680
<v Speaker 1>a shout out to Josh from Jersey, the original Jersey,

0:32:31.720 --> 0:32:34.760
<v Speaker 1>not New Jersey, who recently wrote in to suggest we

0:32:35.120 --> 0:32:37.560
<v Speaker 1>do an episode on that, and had perfect timing because

0:32:37.600 --> 0:32:40.520
<v Speaker 1>he wrote in after you'd selected this one, oh yeah,

0:32:40.560 --> 0:32:43.120
<v Speaker 1>and I was like, these two would go great together,

0:32:43.240 --> 0:32:46.080
<v Speaker 1>hand in hand. Yeah, So thanks Josh for reminding us.

0:32:46.080 --> 0:32:50.120
<v Speaker 2>Well, thank you Josh for thanking Josh, which Josh, I'm

0:32:50.120 --> 0:32:53.080
<v Speaker 2>thinking all the Josh's Okay. So in nineteen seventy two,

0:32:53.160 --> 0:32:57.280
<v Speaker 2>this dude named John B. Calhoun. This is one of

0:32:57.280 --> 0:32:59.720
<v Speaker 2>his experiments. This guy, what he liked to do was

0:32:59.720 --> 0:33:03.600
<v Speaker 2>bill rat and mouse utopias.

0:33:03.800 --> 0:33:05.320
<v Speaker 1>You've been doing it since the forties.

0:33:05.400 --> 0:33:08.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And basically with the aim to see what would

0:33:08.560 --> 0:33:11.840
<v Speaker 2>happen to a population, in this case mice or rats

0:33:12.480 --> 0:33:15.400
<v Speaker 2>if you gave them a perfect mouse world.

0:33:15.680 --> 0:33:17.680
<v Speaker 1>Right, And he called these world universes.

0:33:17.920 --> 0:33:18.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:33:18.520 --> 0:33:20.560
<v Speaker 1>And the one in nineteen seventy two, the one that

0:33:20.600 --> 0:33:24.800
<v Speaker 1>really like made all the headlines, I guess, was called

0:33:24.880 --> 0:33:27.640
<v Speaker 1>Universe twenty five. So he had twenty four under his

0:33:27.680 --> 0:33:30.400
<v Speaker 1>bell already, and it was pretty good size. It was

0:33:30.600 --> 0:33:34.320
<v Speaker 1>one hundred over one hundred inches square, The walls were

0:33:34.320 --> 0:33:39.760
<v Speaker 1>fifty four inches high. It had space for let's see,

0:33:40.040 --> 0:33:43.080
<v Speaker 1>what's two hundred and fifty six times fifteen, chuck.

0:33:44.080 --> 0:33:47.800
<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna go with about in my head. I'm gonna say,

0:33:47.800 --> 0:33:49.360
<v Speaker 2>like close to thirty thousand.

0:33:50.640 --> 0:33:52.959
<v Speaker 1>It is exactly thirty eight hundred.

0:33:53.480 --> 0:33:54.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's what I meant.

0:33:54.400 --> 0:33:58.200
<v Speaker 1>I meant three thousand, thirty eight hundred and forty okay, okay,

0:33:59.080 --> 0:34:01.840
<v Speaker 1>So there was enough room comfortably for thirty eight hundred

0:34:01.880 --> 0:34:07.200
<v Speaker 1>and forty mice. Yes, And long before that he introduced

0:34:07.360 --> 0:34:11.800
<v Speaker 1>four breeding pairs, so eight mice he first is introduced

0:34:11.840 --> 0:34:12.919
<v Speaker 1>to Universe twenty five.

0:34:13.040 --> 0:34:14.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and it was well stocked by the way.

0:34:14.600 --> 0:34:16.160
<v Speaker 1>They had everything they want, food.

0:34:15.960 --> 0:34:18.680
<v Speaker 2>Water that was cleaned out. They were all disease free,

0:34:18.760 --> 0:34:21.040
<v Speaker 2>no predators, yeah, no, yeah. He threw a cat in

0:34:21.080 --> 0:34:21.520
<v Speaker 2>there once.

0:34:21.760 --> 0:34:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Right, just to keep them on their toes or something.

0:34:23.800 --> 0:34:25.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean it was it was mouse heaven is

0:34:25.880 --> 0:34:26.520
<v Speaker 2>what they called it.

0:34:26.640 --> 0:34:29.600
<v Speaker 1>Yes, and he actually did in papers about these universes.

0:34:29.680 --> 0:34:31.920
<v Speaker 1>He would refer to them as heaven or utopia, and

0:34:32.000 --> 0:34:33.239
<v Speaker 1>he would use words like that.

0:34:33.400 --> 0:34:34.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:34:34.560 --> 0:34:37.400
<v Speaker 1>So he introduces these four breeding pairs of mice to

0:34:38.400 --> 0:34:42.960
<v Speaker 1>Universe twenty five, and after one hundred and four days,

0:34:43.040 --> 0:34:45.920
<v Speaker 1>it took them to finally settle down and be like, Okay,

0:34:45.960 --> 0:34:48.160
<v Speaker 1>this place is actually pretty great. It's not too good

0:34:48.200 --> 0:34:51.200
<v Speaker 1>to be true, despite the fact that it seems to

0:34:51.200 --> 0:34:54.640
<v Speaker 1>be built by human hand, which is weird, and the

0:34:54.680 --> 0:34:59.080
<v Speaker 1>temperature never changes, but we're just gonna say it's probably fine, right,

0:34:59.200 --> 0:35:03.040
<v Speaker 1>and start breeding. And they started breeding pretty quickly. Oh yes,

0:35:03.320 --> 0:35:06.600
<v Speaker 1>they started doubling in population every fifty five days after.

0:35:06.320 --> 0:35:09.239
<v Speaker 2>That, right, Yeah, like you said, because it was so

0:35:09.400 --> 0:35:12.520
<v Speaker 2>great there, they were just like Hey, let's eat and

0:35:12.920 --> 0:35:16.279
<v Speaker 2>do it and make little baby mice. Like you know,

0:35:16.320 --> 0:35:19.000
<v Speaker 2>there is no end in sight, so you're doubling every

0:35:19.040 --> 0:35:21.960
<v Speaker 2>fifty five days. This was all a big study to

0:35:22.000 --> 0:35:25.680
<v Speaker 2>study what overpopulation, what would happen. And what he found

0:35:25.680 --> 0:35:29.560
<v Speaker 2>time after time was that things went bad.

0:35:30.320 --> 0:35:34.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, which is really something because remember Paul Erlick released

0:35:34.480 --> 0:35:38.440
<v Speaker 1>the population bomb in nineteen sixty eight, but for decades

0:35:38.480 --> 0:35:44.839
<v Speaker 1>before that, John Calhoun saw firsthand what the real problem was.

0:35:45.080 --> 0:35:50.400
<v Speaker 1>The real problem wasn't overpopulation leading to scarcity of food

0:35:50.480 --> 0:35:55.640
<v Speaker 1>and conflicts, conflict and resource wars and famine starvation. What

0:35:55.800 --> 0:35:59.440
<v Speaker 1>he found was that the real problem was overpopulation itself.

0:35:59.680 --> 0:36:03.680
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but just too many, too many mice and not

0:36:03.880 --> 0:36:06.960
<v Speaker 2>enough valuable roles for mice to play exactly.

0:36:07.400 --> 0:36:09.919
<v Speaker 1>So there comes to be a point in any mouse

0:36:09.960 --> 0:36:13.239
<v Speaker 1>population as far as Calhoun was concerned. And again this

0:36:13.280 --> 0:36:15.799
<v Speaker 1>is Universe twenty five, and he wasn't making like one

0:36:15.840 --> 0:36:18.799
<v Speaker 1>a week or something. These were detailed, smart studies. He

0:36:18.880 --> 0:36:21.000
<v Speaker 1>was hired by the National Institutes of Health. He spent

0:36:21.040 --> 0:36:23.040
<v Speaker 1>like twenty or thirty years working there. He's like a

0:36:23.040 --> 0:36:29.080
<v Speaker 1>bona fide legitimate researcher, and he would find that at

0:36:29.120 --> 0:36:34.200
<v Speaker 1>some point the abundance would lead to overpopulation rather than

0:36:34.239 --> 0:36:37.480
<v Speaker 1>scarcely like he never ran out of food. They always

0:36:37.520 --> 0:36:39.680
<v Speaker 1>had enough food and water and everything. What came to

0:36:39.719 --> 0:36:42.680
<v Speaker 1>be an issue was space and social interactions. There were

0:36:42.719 --> 0:36:45.360
<v Speaker 1>just too many people. There are too many mice, I

0:36:45.360 --> 0:36:49.160
<v Speaker 1>should say to the mice. There people, sure, and they're

0:36:49.440 --> 0:36:53.680
<v Speaker 1>rubbing shoulders up against one another, constantly moving past one another.

0:36:53.760 --> 0:36:57.880
<v Speaker 1>There's not enough room. And like you said, there wasn't enough.

0:36:59.040 --> 0:37:03.440
<v Speaker 1>There were too many mice to fulfill the number of

0:37:03.520 --> 0:37:06.279
<v Speaker 1>social roles needed. Right.

0:37:06.640 --> 0:37:08.759
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it says by day three point fifteen, so this

0:37:08.800 --> 0:37:12.080
<v Speaker 2>is close to a year, a lot of mice are

0:37:12.120 --> 0:37:14.320
<v Speaker 2>living in there. And they said there were more peers

0:37:15.040 --> 0:37:19.640
<v Speaker 2>to defend against, so males were stressed out and stopped

0:37:19.640 --> 0:37:23.240
<v Speaker 2>defending their territory. Yeah, they abandon it. It said normal

0:37:23.280 --> 0:37:29.920
<v Speaker 2>social discourse broke down completely, Social bonds broke down. There

0:37:30.000 --> 0:37:33.680
<v Speaker 2>was like randomized violence for no reason. It seemed like

0:37:35.000 --> 0:37:38.360
<v Speaker 2>the female mice, the mothers saw this and would attack

0:37:38.440 --> 0:37:43.600
<v Speaker 2>their own babies, and it was procreation slumped, infant abandonment

0:37:43.680 --> 0:37:47.960
<v Speaker 2>increased mortality. Sword Then he talked about the beautiful ones,

0:37:48.000 --> 0:37:50.760
<v Speaker 2>which I thought was hysterical. There were these male mice

0:37:50.800 --> 0:37:54.080
<v Speaker 2>that just they never fought, They never sought to reproduce

0:37:54.200 --> 0:37:56.440
<v Speaker 2>or have sex. All they did was eat, sleep, and

0:37:56.480 --> 0:37:59.080
<v Speaker 2>groom and just sort of loaf around.

0:37:59.280 --> 0:37:59.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:38:00.000 --> 0:38:03.080
<v Speaker 2>All these social barriers are completely being destroyed, right, these

0:38:03.120 --> 0:38:04.359
<v Speaker 2>social norms, I should say.

0:38:04.480 --> 0:38:07.839
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and these the females that could reproduce went off

0:38:07.880 --> 0:38:11.520
<v Speaker 1>by themselves, sequestered themselves away from society, and the males

0:38:11.560 --> 0:38:14.560
<v Speaker 1>that were capable of reproducing became those beautiful ones yeah,

0:38:14.600 --> 0:38:18.280
<v Speaker 1>and didn't seek sex either. So over time they lost

0:38:18.320 --> 0:38:21.880
<v Speaker 1>their ability to carry out these complex social interactions that

0:38:22.000 --> 0:38:25.640
<v Speaker 1>lead to reproduction, and they just stopped reproducing it in general.

0:38:26.040 --> 0:38:29.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. By day five sixty, and this is I guess

0:38:29.120 --> 0:38:33.319
<v Speaker 2>that's the close to two year mark. Well, I guess

0:38:33.320 --> 0:38:36.880
<v Speaker 2>eighteen months they had twenty two hundred mice and then

0:38:37.120 --> 0:38:38.440
<v Speaker 2>growth ceased.

0:38:38.239 --> 0:38:40.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, which isn't even close to the thirty eight hundred

0:38:40.719 --> 0:38:43.759
<v Speaker 1>and forty that this place could could conceivably hang on to.

0:38:44.120 --> 0:38:46.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So it was how many, was it, thirty eight hundred,

0:38:46.640 --> 0:38:48.640
<v Speaker 2>thirty eight to forty? Yeah, so at twenty two hundred

0:38:48.640 --> 0:38:52.960
<v Speaker 2>they stopped reproducing. Very few mice survive pass weaning. At

0:38:52.960 --> 0:38:58.280
<v Speaker 2>that point, the beautiful ones were still secluded the females.

0:38:58.560 --> 0:39:01.600
<v Speaker 2>They basically called this the first death of two deaths.

0:39:01.640 --> 0:39:05.000
<v Speaker 2>He did specifically call it a social death essentially.

0:39:04.680 --> 0:39:07.160
<v Speaker 1>Exactly like the death of the spirit, the death of

0:39:07.200 --> 0:39:12.000
<v Speaker 1>the society, and then eventually the physical death the second death.

0:39:12.000 --> 0:39:15.120
<v Speaker 2>Well, yeah, the one leads to the second, like there

0:39:15.200 --> 0:39:17.880
<v Speaker 2>is a point that you pass, and he came up

0:39:17.880 --> 0:39:19.840
<v Speaker 2>with a great name for it, called the behavioral sink

0:39:21.680 --> 0:39:24.000
<v Speaker 2>where they I think they refer to it as the

0:39:24.040 --> 0:39:26.080
<v Speaker 2>event horizon. Once you pass that, it's all.

0:39:25.960 --> 0:39:29.120
<v Speaker 1>Over, right, there's no coming back from that. And once

0:39:29.160 --> 0:39:31.839
<v Speaker 1>there's no coming back from that, not only has your

0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:37.640
<v Speaker 1>society collapsed, or does your society collapse, your population becomes

0:39:37.640 --> 0:39:42.080
<v Speaker 1>extinct because reproduction becomes impossible. Even he found, which is

0:39:42.120 --> 0:39:46.560
<v Speaker 1>pretty startling. He found that even after enough of the

0:39:46.560 --> 0:39:50.240
<v Speaker 1>population dies off that it returns to those factible, ideal

0:39:50.320 --> 0:39:53.040
<v Speaker 1>numbers of the early days in Universe twenty five or

0:39:53.080 --> 0:39:56.560
<v Speaker 1>any of the universes, they still don't reproduction doesn't start

0:39:56.640 --> 0:40:00.600
<v Speaker 1>up again because remember, social norms and bonds have broken down, Yeah,

0:40:00.600 --> 0:40:03.560
<v Speaker 1>they were, so they can't even figure out how to

0:40:03.719 --> 0:40:06.640
<v Speaker 1>reproduce once there's room for people enough.

0:40:06.680 --> 0:40:09.040
<v Speaker 2>Again, it's crazy, it is so interesting.

0:40:09.120 --> 0:40:13.040
<v Speaker 1>He said that he wrote this really kind of blockbuster

0:40:13.120 --> 0:40:16.640
<v Speaker 1>paper called Population Density and Social Pathology, and it was

0:40:16.680 --> 0:40:19.840
<v Speaker 1>published in Scientific American in nineteen sixty two, and he

0:40:19.920 --> 0:40:23.600
<v Speaker 1>said that the individuals that are born under these circumstances

0:40:23.960 --> 0:40:26.520
<v Speaker 1>will be so out of touch with reality as to

0:40:26.520 --> 0:40:28.400
<v Speaker 1>be incapable even of alienation.

0:40:28.800 --> 0:40:29.160
<v Speaker 2>Wow.

0:40:29.360 --> 0:40:31.760
<v Speaker 1>So like they can't even feel like they're not connected

0:40:31.760 --> 0:40:34.719
<v Speaker 1>as society anymore because there's no society for them to

0:40:34.719 --> 0:40:37.640
<v Speaker 1>ever connect or disconnect from.

0:40:38.040 --> 0:40:39.560
<v Speaker 2>It's frightening, it really is.

0:40:39.600 --> 0:40:43.120
<v Speaker 1>And a lot of people jumped on this and said, WHOA,

0:40:43.680 --> 0:40:45.840
<v Speaker 1>what's going on here? Because if you look at his data,

0:40:46.600 --> 0:40:50.399
<v Speaker 1>every time he ran this experiment, the results became the same.

0:40:50.960 --> 0:40:54.560
<v Speaker 1>There was an abundance of resources, there was never scarcity.

0:40:54.960 --> 0:40:58.600
<v Speaker 1>Population became overpopulation. Once it reached the point of the

0:40:58.640 --> 0:41:03.759
<v Speaker 1>behavioral sink, pulation slid into extinction. And on the way

0:41:03.800 --> 0:41:10.600
<v Speaker 1>there was violence, cannibalism and sexualism. Yeah yeah, in fan aside,

0:41:11.640 --> 0:41:17.000
<v Speaker 1>just like all the horrible things you can possibly think of, right,

0:41:17.040 --> 0:41:19.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, on the way toward extinction. And so a

0:41:19.560 --> 0:41:22.480
<v Speaker 1>lot of people said, you know, these mice kind of

0:41:22.520 --> 0:41:27.160
<v Speaker 1>are reflective of our own society, don't you think? And

0:41:27.320 --> 0:41:29.359
<v Speaker 1>Calhoun was kind of like, yeah, I would say that's

0:41:29.400 --> 0:41:30.320
<v Speaker 1>probably correct.

0:41:30.840 --> 0:41:32.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And there was a big boom at the time

0:41:33.120 --> 0:41:36.560
<v Speaker 2>because of this experiment in literature and movies with a

0:41:36.600 --> 0:41:41.680
<v Speaker 2>lot of doomsday scenarios. Tom Wolfe, the Great writer wrote

0:41:42.040 --> 0:41:45.640
<v Speaker 2>in The Pumphouse Gang in nineteen sixty eight he actually

0:41:45.640 --> 0:41:50.480
<v Speaker 2>referenced the behavioral sink in reference to New York City,

0:41:51.040 --> 0:41:53.360
<v Speaker 2>and he said, it got to it was easy to

0:41:53.360 --> 0:41:56.040
<v Speaker 2>look at New Yorker's as animals, especially looking down from

0:41:56.040 --> 0:41:58.920
<v Speaker 2>someplace like a balcony at Grand Central at the rush

0:41:58.920 --> 0:42:01.680
<v Speaker 2>hour Friday afternoon floor was filled with poor white humans

0:42:02.080 --> 0:42:04.600
<v Speaker 2>running around, dodging, blinking their eyes, making a sound like

0:42:04.640 --> 0:42:07.840
<v Speaker 2>a pin full of starlings or rats or something. And

0:42:07.840 --> 0:42:09.759
<v Speaker 2>there are all these movies that came out. There was

0:42:09.800 --> 0:42:16.120
<v Speaker 2>one called ZPG with Oliver Reed and Geraldine Chapman chaplain.

0:42:16.680 --> 0:42:18.480
<v Speaker 2>It was called Zuropopulation Growth.

0:42:18.560 --> 0:42:21.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, like for a generation the government said no one's

0:42:21.080 --> 0:42:23.239
<v Speaker 1>allowed to have babies. Here's your robot.

0:42:22.960 --> 0:42:24.360
<v Speaker 2>Baby, right, and they're like, no, we're gonna have a

0:42:24.440 --> 0:42:28.120
<v Speaker 2>real baby, and they're like, no, you're not. I think

0:42:28.360 --> 0:42:30.160
<v Speaker 2>I didn't see it, but I'm sure it ended very poorly.

0:42:30.600 --> 0:42:32.759
<v Speaker 1>I didn't see it either. Yeah, I saw it on

0:42:32.800 --> 0:42:34.040
<v Speaker 1>IMDb though.

0:42:33.960 --> 0:42:39.319
<v Speaker 2>And of course, of course Soilent Green. Yeah, great, great movie.

0:42:39.120 --> 0:42:43.239
<v Speaker 1>From the novel make Room, Make Room, And there wasn't

0:42:43.239 --> 0:42:45.320
<v Speaker 1>no idea it's called that I didn't either. There's another

0:42:45.480 --> 0:42:50.279
<v Speaker 1>novel called stand On Zanzibar and there were people called

0:42:50.360 --> 0:42:54.319
<v Speaker 1>Muckers who ran amuck and just suddenly went crazy and

0:42:54.360 --> 0:42:57.280
<v Speaker 1>started killing a bunch of people. Oh no, it happens

0:42:57.280 --> 0:42:59.600
<v Speaker 1>from time to time in the news a lot of

0:42:59.640 --> 0:43:03.800
<v Speaker 1>people wood. We're saying, yeah, the stuff that Calhoun's finding

0:43:04.280 --> 0:43:11.359
<v Speaker 1>is clearly extrapolatable onto human society. And at the time too,

0:43:11.520 --> 0:43:13.440
<v Speaker 1>there was a lot of discussion about what to do

0:43:13.600 --> 0:43:19.840
<v Speaker 1>about inner city over population, crime, housing projects. There's this

0:43:19.960 --> 0:43:23.319
<v Speaker 1>really great documentary called The pruit I Go Myth and

0:43:23.360 --> 0:43:27.960
<v Speaker 1>it's about there was this the prud I Go project

0:43:28.400 --> 0:43:31.719
<v Speaker 1>in Saint Louis. This became I think we've talked about

0:43:31.760 --> 0:43:37.240
<v Speaker 1>it before, but it became like the the the poster

0:43:37.440 --> 0:43:40.279
<v Speaker 1>child for how no matter what you do for poor

0:43:40.320 --> 0:43:42.719
<v Speaker 1>inner city people, they're going to screw it up and

0:43:42.760 --> 0:43:45.120
<v Speaker 1>it's going to become crime ridden. And it's them, it's

0:43:45.160 --> 0:43:48.920
<v Speaker 1>not it's not their their their quality of life or education,

0:43:49.000 --> 0:43:52.200
<v Speaker 1>or anything like that. It's them and this this, this

0:43:52.360 --> 0:43:56.000
<v Speaker 1>documentary just totally demolishes that idea, but it's still a

0:43:56.040 --> 0:43:58.680
<v Speaker 1>long standing idea. And there were a group of police

0:43:59.160 --> 0:44:03.120
<v Speaker 1>policymakers who looked at Calhoun's research and said, clearly, we

0:44:03.760 --> 0:44:06.600
<v Speaker 1>need to do something. There's there's too many people, and

0:44:06.600 --> 0:44:11.040
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of people who don't have valuable social

0:44:11.120 --> 0:44:14.719
<v Speaker 1>roles and they're turning to crime and everything. It was

0:44:15.239 --> 0:44:18.120
<v Speaker 1>very much open to interpretation because Calhoun, even though he

0:44:18.200 --> 0:44:21.320
<v Speaker 1>was putting these things in terms like heaven and utopia

0:44:21.400 --> 0:44:24.560
<v Speaker 1>and hell and behavioral sink and that kind of stuff,

0:44:24.760 --> 0:44:27.040
<v Speaker 1>he was still just kind of putting data out there

0:44:27.239 --> 0:44:29.640
<v Speaker 1>and it was up to society at large you interpret it,

0:44:29.680 --> 0:44:31.680
<v Speaker 1>And it really said a lot about your attitudes towards

0:44:31.680 --> 0:44:34.920
<v Speaker 1>your fellow human how you interpreted it. Yeah, but Calhoun

0:44:35.040 --> 0:44:39.160
<v Speaker 1>himself actually took something of an optimistic view of all

0:44:39.160 --> 0:44:41.399
<v Speaker 1>of this data, which is kind of mind boggling. Yeah,

0:44:41.400 --> 0:44:44.239
<v Speaker 1>I was surprised to read this. Actually it makes sense though,

0:44:44.239 --> 0:44:45.080
<v Speaker 1>if you think about it.

0:44:45.200 --> 0:44:48.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he found that there were outliers and that not

0:44:48.280 --> 0:44:54.480
<v Speaker 2>all the mice descended into hellish violence and looting, right

0:44:54.520 --> 0:44:57.560
<v Speaker 2>and mouse looting. He found that some could actually handle this,

0:44:58.080 --> 0:45:00.359
<v Speaker 2>and what he called the ones that could had high

0:45:00.400 --> 0:45:04.640
<v Speaker 2>social velocity, mice that fared well with a lot of

0:45:04.719 --> 0:45:06.400
<v Speaker 2>high number of social interactions.

0:45:06.520 --> 0:45:09.200
<v Speaker 1>That is not me, And he said, I'm a type,

0:45:09.280 --> 0:45:12.200
<v Speaker 1>A blood type, blood personality type.

0:45:12.760 --> 0:45:17.000
<v Speaker 2>He said that basically, these mice will thrive. And he said,

0:45:17.080 --> 0:45:19.880
<v Speaker 2>and even the ones who don't, what he termed the losers,

0:45:21.040 --> 0:45:22.520
<v Speaker 2>found ways to be more creative.

0:45:22.680 --> 0:45:24.799
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and he's so sufficient. Yeah.

0:45:24.800 --> 0:45:27.080
<v Speaker 2>He had a son of your outlook, basically saying that

0:45:27.640 --> 0:45:31.880
<v Speaker 2>man is essentially a positive animal, and we will create

0:45:31.960 --> 0:45:34.360
<v Speaker 2>and design our own solutions.

0:45:34.600 --> 0:45:37.040
<v Speaker 1>Right. And his solution was since and it makes sense

0:45:37.120 --> 0:45:41.400
<v Speaker 1>because he found that it's not scarcity or famines or

0:45:41.440 --> 0:45:46.359
<v Speaker 1>anything that leads to trouble. Yeah, it's overpopulation itself. His

0:45:46.440 --> 0:45:48.240
<v Speaker 1>idea was, well, let's go find more space.

0:45:48.520 --> 0:45:48.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:45:48.920 --> 0:45:50.839
<v Speaker 1>And so he was a member of this group called

0:45:50.840 --> 0:45:52.759
<v Speaker 1>the Space Cadets, which was a group of thinkers that

0:45:52.760 --> 0:45:55.400
<v Speaker 1>were trying to figure out how to establish colonies on

0:45:55.840 --> 0:45:59.000
<v Speaker 1>Mars or the moon or wherever, right, which is exactly

0:45:59.520 --> 0:46:02.279
<v Speaker 1>what cal Who's point was is that we just need

0:46:02.280 --> 0:46:05.480
<v Speaker 1>more space. As long as we can sustain ourselves, that's fine.

0:46:05.840 --> 0:46:10.800
<v Speaker 1>But even if we don't stress agriculture, the planet or whatever.

0:46:11.000 --> 0:46:13.200
<v Speaker 1>We're still going to run into problems. So let's go

0:46:13.760 --> 0:46:15.040
<v Speaker 1>off to other worlds.

0:46:15.120 --> 0:46:16.919
<v Speaker 2>And terror form.

0:46:17.239 --> 0:46:19.000
<v Speaker 1>Oh and did you see the thing about the rats

0:46:19.000 --> 0:46:19.680
<v Speaker 1>of nim.

0:46:20.320 --> 0:46:21.400
<v Speaker 2>Oh was that taken?

0:46:21.560 --> 0:46:23.680
<v Speaker 1>Uh? It was based inspired by this, It was based

0:46:23.680 --> 0:46:25.960
<v Speaker 1>directly on his research. Oh really and that cool? Very

0:46:26.480 --> 0:46:29.440
<v Speaker 1>missus Brisbee and the Rats of nim nice. Yeah, so

0:46:29.560 --> 0:46:33.080
<v Speaker 1>go see that again and also go read the Behavioral Sink.

0:46:33.320 --> 0:46:33.960
<v Speaker 2>Super interesting.

0:46:34.040 --> 0:46:38.040
<v Speaker 1>Read an article on Cabinet by Will Wiles that informed

0:46:38.040 --> 0:46:39.120
<v Speaker 1>a lot of this episode.

0:46:39.320 --> 0:46:42.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, this stuff is fascinating to me. I agree because

0:46:42.440 --> 0:46:45.880
<v Speaker 2>I see kind of both sides. Clearly, there are some

0:46:45.960 --> 0:46:49.319
<v Speaker 2>issues going right now, but I also think that there

0:46:49.360 --> 0:46:51.360
<v Speaker 2>are solutions around the corner.

0:46:51.440 --> 0:46:54.759
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. I ultimately don't have a strong opinion either way,

0:46:54.760 --> 0:46:57.560
<v Speaker 1>And I think if I think about it, it's because

0:46:58.080 --> 0:47:01.960
<v Speaker 1>I think humans will yeah, becomeing ingenuitive.

0:47:02.640 --> 0:47:07.719
<v Speaker 2>You can have steak tonight, tons me too grasped.

0:47:07.800 --> 0:47:11.400
<v Speaker 1>Only you know it doesn't make it any better. I

0:47:11.400 --> 0:47:13.719
<v Speaker 1>mean that's why beef is so It uses so much

0:47:13.840 --> 0:47:16.920
<v Speaker 1>because it eats so much food that also requires water.

0:47:17.000 --> 0:47:19.560
<v Speaker 1>Yeah right, it requires water like two times over at

0:47:19.640 --> 0:47:23.359
<v Speaker 1>least Dumb cows yeah, I should feel bad about our

0:47:23.400 --> 0:47:25.440
<v Speaker 1>steak consumption, Chuck, I don't eat much steak.

0:47:25.719 --> 0:47:28.560
<v Speaker 2>Good for you, buddy, it's because Emily doesn't eat beef.

0:47:28.640 --> 0:47:30.960
<v Speaker 2>So oh yeah, you know, usually I just will cook

0:47:31.040 --> 0:47:33.040
<v Speaker 2>chicken because it's not like I'll have a steak and

0:47:33.080 --> 0:47:35.720
<v Speaker 2>I'll cook her chicken every now and then. But usually

0:47:35.719 --> 0:47:37.759
<v Speaker 2>it's just easier, yeah, because chicken comes in like a

0:47:37.800 --> 0:47:39.200
<v Speaker 2>two or three pack, right, you know.

0:47:39.400 --> 0:47:42.319
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Plus you cook it until as dry as a bone,

0:47:42.360 --> 0:47:44.200
<v Speaker 1>so you can feel better about the water consumption.

0:47:44.320 --> 0:47:45.000
<v Speaker 2>Right, that's right.

0:47:45.600 --> 0:47:48.360
<v Speaker 1>If you want to know more about population growth and

0:47:48.520 --> 0:47:51.959
<v Speaker 1>specifically zero population growth, type those words into the search

0:47:52.000 --> 0:47:54.759
<v Speaker 1>bar housetiforks dot com. And since I said search bar

0:47:54.840 --> 0:47:56.479
<v Speaker 1>in there somewhere, it's time for listener mail.

0:47:58.719 --> 0:48:01.160
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to call this linguist sticks up for us.

0:48:01.640 --> 0:48:05.960
<v Speaker 2>Oh right, right, Hey, guys, I studied linguistics in college,

0:48:05.960 --> 0:48:07.560
<v Speaker 2>so it always tickles me when you guys go on

0:48:07.560 --> 0:48:10.279
<v Speaker 2>tangents about words and language. The main reason I'm writing

0:48:10.360 --> 0:48:12.080
<v Speaker 2>is because I want to offer you a counterpoint to

0:48:12.160 --> 0:48:16.720
<v Speaker 2>the language police that have been harshing your vibe. Grammar

0:48:16.800 --> 0:48:21.160
<v Speaker 2>nuts are what we call in the biz prescriptivists. Yeah,

0:48:21.440 --> 0:48:24.920
<v Speaker 2>who like to dictate how people should speak. Linguists, on

0:48:24.960 --> 0:48:29.319
<v Speaker 2>the other hand, are descriptivists who make their careers out

0:48:29.320 --> 0:48:32.560
<v Speaker 2>of how people actually speak in real world situations.

0:48:32.760 --> 0:48:35.200
<v Speaker 1>Oh, I didn't realize. I thought linguists could be one

0:48:35.280 --> 0:48:38.359
<v Speaker 1>or the other. I didn't realize that, like linguists tend

0:48:38.440 --> 0:48:40.200
<v Speaker 1>to be descriptivists.

0:48:40.520 --> 0:48:41.320
<v Speaker 2>That's what she says.

0:48:41.520 --> 0:48:46.040
<v Speaker 1>What is who wrote Infinite Jess David Foster Wallace. Yeah,

0:48:46.080 --> 0:48:48.920
<v Speaker 1>he was a big time prescriptivist. Oh really, you used

0:48:48.920 --> 0:48:51.000
<v Speaker 1>to drive him crazy, like how people should speak?

0:48:51.360 --> 0:48:52.680
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, like that.

0:48:52.680 --> 0:48:56.000
<v Speaker 1>There is a specific way that humans are supposed to

0:48:56.080 --> 0:48:58.760
<v Speaker 1>speak and write right and communicate, and if you deviate

0:48:58.800 --> 0:49:01.680
<v Speaker 1>from that, you're about as bad a human.

0:49:01.480 --> 0:49:03.000
<v Speaker 2>Being as you can be, and that would be like

0:49:03.040 --> 0:49:06.719
<v Speaker 2>the downfall of society or pretty much. Come on, we

0:49:06.760 --> 0:49:09.120
<v Speaker 2>don't use the terms good or bad grammar. Instead, we

0:49:09.160 --> 0:49:13.719
<v Speaker 2>prefer standard and non standard Linguists recognize the social functions

0:49:13.719 --> 0:49:17.719
<v Speaker 2>of non standard grammars and observe their uses and functions,

0:49:18.120 --> 0:49:21.320
<v Speaker 2>rather than to try and micromanage them. A final point,

0:49:21.640 --> 0:49:24.000
<v Speaker 2>I'm certain your listeners still know what you mean when

0:49:24.000 --> 0:49:26.600
<v Speaker 2>you say things like there's a lot of something, even

0:49:26.640 --> 0:49:29.640
<v Speaker 2>if it isn't standard grammar and the laws of linguistics.

0:49:30.000 --> 0:49:34.600
<v Speaker 2>As long as you're interlocutor, which is a.

0:49:34.560 --> 0:49:37.880
<v Speaker 1>Listener interlocutor interlocutor.

0:49:38.400 --> 0:49:42.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, as long as they accurately understand what you mean,

0:49:42.560 --> 0:49:46.360
<v Speaker 2>you have successfully communicated. Okay, And that's why humans invented language,

0:49:46.360 --> 0:49:49.080
<v Speaker 2>isn't it. So go be free and know that I

0:49:49.080 --> 0:49:51.080
<v Speaker 2>will always love your show no matter how you speak.

0:49:51.120 --> 0:49:52.240
<v Speaker 2>And that is from Kristin.

0:49:52.480 --> 0:49:56.200
<v Speaker 1>Thanks Kristin. The supportive linguists appreciate that. That's funny that

0:49:56.520 --> 0:50:00.719
<v Speaker 1>Kristin mentions that as long as you're interlocutor understands what

0:50:00.760 --> 0:50:04.359
<v Speaker 1>you're saying, you're communicating correctly. Sure, someone else I don't

0:50:04.360 --> 0:50:06.200
<v Speaker 1>remember who it was they wrote in and suggested we

0:50:06.239 --> 0:50:07.600
<v Speaker 1>do an episode on shorthand.

0:50:07.920 --> 0:50:09.760
<v Speaker 2>Oh interesting. I was just talking about that with Emily

0:50:09.840 --> 0:50:10.239
<v Speaker 2>last night.

0:50:10.440 --> 0:50:11.800
<v Speaker 1>Damn, it's all over the place.

0:50:11.840 --> 0:50:13.879
<v Speaker 2>I took speed writing in high school and she was did.

0:50:13.880 --> 0:50:15.040
<v Speaker 2>She very surprised at that.

0:50:15.400 --> 0:50:17.960
<v Speaker 1>So like speedwriting with hand.

0:50:17.760 --> 0:50:21.800
<v Speaker 2>Speed writing is like like stenography, No, write with your hand.

0:50:22.960 --> 0:50:27.760
<v Speaker 2>It's basically a version of shorthand, but not exact shorthand. Gotcha,

0:50:28.080 --> 0:50:29.560
<v Speaker 2>it's a kind of shorthand.

0:50:29.960 --> 0:50:33.200
<v Speaker 1>It sounds like shorthand, but like more aggressive. Yeah, like

0:50:33.400 --> 0:50:34.520
<v Speaker 1>max power or something.

0:50:35.000 --> 0:50:38.200
<v Speaker 2>The joke was my friend Shannon, I won't say her

0:50:38.280 --> 0:50:41.520
<v Speaker 2>last name, but she would cheat in class because she

0:50:41.840 --> 0:50:45.239
<v Speaker 2>didn't learn the shorthand. So the test where they would

0:50:45.280 --> 0:50:48.040
<v Speaker 2>just read a long passage quickly and you would have

0:50:48.080 --> 0:50:52.040
<v Speaker 2>to do it and then transcribe that into long hand.

0:50:52.440 --> 0:50:55.480
<v Speaker 2>She was just super good at writing really fast, so

0:50:55.480 --> 0:50:58.200
<v Speaker 2>she would just write down everything in longhand super fast

0:50:58.239 --> 0:50:59.920
<v Speaker 2>and then figure out how to transcribe it back to

0:51:00.080 --> 0:51:02.920
<v Speaker 2>shorthand and then back to long hand. And she got

0:51:02.920 --> 0:51:05.400
<v Speaker 2>caught doing that. Yeah, and the teacher's like, that's cheating.

0:51:05.680 --> 0:51:07.839
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it sounds like it. She was like, well, mnd

0:51:07.960 --> 0:51:12.520
<v Speaker 1>me with fast still liven't. Nope, that's not speedwriting. That's

0:51:12.560 --> 0:51:13.440
<v Speaker 1>just writing fast.

0:51:13.600 --> 0:51:13.880
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

0:51:15.280 --> 0:51:16.919
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