1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,160 Speaker 1: This is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switched on, 2 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 1: the podcast brought to you from the BNAF team at Bloomberg, 3 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 1: where we bring our analysts on the show to share 4 00:00:09,280 --> 00:00:12,639 Speaker 1: their most recent research. Today, we've got one of those 5 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: topics that spans the whole world really and so many 6 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: different parts of the economy. The topic is land use, 7 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: and it's a really simple term for something that is 8 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,280 Speaker 1: anything but simple. It's what we humans decide to do 9 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: with the land that we have accessible to us on Earth. 10 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,319 Speaker 1: We're on the blue planet, so over seventy percent of 11 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: the surface is covered in water, with the less than 12 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: thirty percent that's left, how much of it will be 13 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: dedicated to growing food or power generation, or to cities 14 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 1: or perhaps wildlife. When we think about the future of 15 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 1: the solutions in the energy transition, do we have enough 16 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 1: land for everything that we want to do, from the 17 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 1: space required for renewable energy for green hydrogen to the 18 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: crops required for sustainable aviation fuel. How much did these 19 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: compete with food for humans and what is the impact 20 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: on biodiversity. Today I am joined by Hugh Bromley and 21 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: Kostas Pegios, and they talk about some of the parts 22 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: that were featured in bn EF's recent New Energy Outlook, 23 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: where it addresses land use. BNF clients can find the 24 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,919 Speaker 1: full New Energy Outlook at BNF on the Bloomberg terminal 25 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: or at BNF dot com. For those who are not 26 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: yet subscribers, they can find the executive summary and some 27 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: really great data at about dot bn EF dot com 28 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: forward slash New Dash Energy Dash Outlook forward slash. You 29 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 1: can also find that link in the show notes. Right now, 30 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: let's jump into our conversation with Hugh and Kostas about 31 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: land use. Hugh, welcome back to the show. 32 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 2: Great to be here. Thanks, Thena and cost. 33 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 1: Us, good to have you here for the first time. 34 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 3: Thanks very much, very glad to be here as well. 35 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 1: So we're going to talk about land use, but as 36 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: we do with most of our shows, we're going to 37 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: start with some definitions and also the why why we're 38 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: looking at this. So as the energy transition increases in 39 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: peace and we start talking about technologies, why have the 40 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: two of you started to look at land use and 41 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: why is it so important during this next phase in 42 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 1: the energy transition. 43 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 2: Sure, I think I think you know in the last 44 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 2: few years been as SCO has expanded quite a bit, right, 45 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 2: So we moved into food and agricultural as a sector 46 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 2: beyond the energy and the transport transitions, and really for 47 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 2: us that completes the emissions part. We can now talk 48 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 2: about emissions across the broader economy. We also move beyond 49 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 2: as climate and start to talk about nature and biodiversity 50 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 2: as issues and challenges facing all the sectors that we cover. 51 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 2: And if you think about where that intersects with the 52 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 2: energy transition, it's really land. Land is the one resource 53 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 2: that's constrained on both fronts that affects food and is 54 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 2: competing directly against the energy transition and the need to 55 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 2: restore nature and biodiversity. So when we think about land use, 56 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 2: we're thinking about this tension on those three front's, food, nature, 57 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 2: and the energy transition. 58 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: This seems like such a big topic and there are 59 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 1: so many different things that we could bring into this, 60 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 1: and we're looking at the arable land end of things. 61 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: When we're thinking about food, also, do you take into 62 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:10,519 Speaker 1: consideration population and where people may end up living and 63 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: what parts of the world are changing. And really what 64 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: I'm bringing into this is when you look at land use, 65 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: are you also taking into consideration the impacts of physical 66 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: climate changes. 67 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 2: We certainly take into account population as a driver of 68 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 2: growth in all of these sectors, you know, and in 69 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 2: food in particular, you're thinking about a foods that needs 70 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 2: to expand is to feed the population with numbers are 71 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 2: around twenty percent increase in population by mid century, acquiring 72 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 2: about thirty percent more calories. So accumulation of wealth in 73 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 2: middle economies leads to greater demand for food. Luckily through 74 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: greater yields, that's probably only twenty percent more land. But 75 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: this is a system that's already on the brick, already 76 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 2: being stretched. So when you couple that with need to 77 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 2: de carbonized renewables having a greater footprint than the fossil 78 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 2: fuels there they're displacing need for fuels, for aviation, for maritime, 79 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 2: for shipping. It creates some really really acute tensions. There 80 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 2: are course other considerations here as well. Climate's going to 81 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: affect way you can grow things, how you can use land. 82 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 2: It could even affect where you live. As you say, 83 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 2: there are all things that we now have the capacity 84 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 2: to think about in this model of the exercise, not 85 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 2: explicitly modeling the results, we put out the new energy outlook, 86 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 2: but is something we're looking at. 87 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: Okay, So let's dig into the new energy outlook and 88 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 1: actually the part that is nearest to us as BNF 89 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: and where we first started looking when we started evaluating 90 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 1: the future of the transition, which is the clean power sector. 91 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 1: So with wind and solar really at the center of this, 92 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: you know, what is the land intensity of these sectors 93 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: and how does it compare to fossil fuels and extractive 94 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: carbon intensive industries. 95 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 3: So utility scales smaller and wind farms need far larger 96 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 3: areas per unit of power energy compared to the fossil 97 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 3: fuel plants they displace. And that's even when you consider 98 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 3: the land used to produce and transfer the fossil fuels. 99 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 3: This is like very This becomes even more evidence and 100 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 3: the highens the competition between renewable sites and other sectors 101 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 3: that can lead to life very specific and localized land shortages. 102 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 3: The main factors that affect the land used intensity are 103 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 3: actually usually physical and design of the assets or operational 104 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 3: climate conditions, as well as the energy intensity of the 105 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 3: energy sources. When we're thinking about renewable assets like wind 106 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 3: and solar, the climate variability often means that renewables can 107 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,359 Speaker 3: produce energy at very variable rates, and this also reduce 108 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 3: the duration of far producing periods and therefore increases the 109 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 3: land required per unit of energy produced. At the same time, 110 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 3: as the energy densities of fossil fuels are cyclically higher 111 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 3: than those of renewables, and because the latter other than 112 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 3: geo thermal cannot always take into considerations after energy resources, 113 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 3: terrectrial renewables such as onshore wind or utility scale sort 114 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 3: require more land to generate the same amount of energy. 115 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 3: So yeah, for wind and solar, we have employed some 116 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 3: universal global assumptions, although there are geographic technologic implications for 117 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 3: example single access tracking or placing a solar panel north 118 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 3: or south of the equator. Similarly, for winter binds, there 119 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 3: are a lot of implications around their design and there 120 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 3: are configurations. For example, different manufacturers have different design criteria 121 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 3: based on different capacities, have highest or design so we've 122 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 3: tried to account for as many of them as possible. 123 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 2: So I think what's really interesting is how that energy 124 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 2: dance is going to change in the future. Actually, if 125 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 2: you think about the bulk of renewals deployment in the 126 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:30,239 Speaker 2: new energy outlook is utility scale solar and onshore wind, 127 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 2: they have very different stories. Actually, utility scale solar, we 128 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 2: see cell cell efficiency constantly improved, proving that's going to 129 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 2: rain tru into the future. And what that means is 130 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 2: that that chemistry changes. Greater energy density not only lowers 131 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 2: the cost. You know, the dollar per watt of solar 132 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 2: goes down, as we see on an experienced curve. It 133 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,599 Speaker 2: lowers your labor costs. You get more watts per panel 134 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 2: for every every bolt that's tightened, you're racking costs. But 135 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 2: it also requires less land. So suddenly your land footprint 136 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 2: of a mega watter solar is is shrinking over time. 137 00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: As compared to previous panels. But how about as compared 138 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: to wind, for example, because I imagine you could co 139 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: locate things agriculture with wind more than you can with solar. 140 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 2: Yeah you could. So wind's got an enormous footprint because 141 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 2: of all those gaps between the towers, if you like. 142 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 2: And actually that's a very different story because with wind, 143 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 2: what you see is that the energy dancer is going 144 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 2: to decline over time because sure, every tower is going 145 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 2: to get taller and going to get bigger, going to 146 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 2: be holding more megawatts on top of it in that 147 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 2: cell and the hub. But actually that will require more 148 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 2: and more spacing between each tower, so therefore the energy 149 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 2: density of wind declines over time. You're absolutely right. Co 150 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 2: locating of assets is extremely important here. I wouldn't limit 151 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 2: it just to wind and solar, but actually we need 152 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 2: to be thinking across the entire economy. You know what 153 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 2: can graze or be grown under wind turbines that can't 154 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 2: be grazed or grown under a solar plant. That's quite 155 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 2: a lot actually, as well as using it for other 156 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 2: industrial applications or for fuel production. 157 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 3: To name some examples. For example, wind can be often 158 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 3: integrated into grazing pastures and some cropping and forestry operations. 159 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 3: At the same time, solar panels can be deve up 160 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 3: on regularly shaped land, which is adjusting to cropped fields 161 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 3: without inpacting agricultural activities. So these are some examples to 162 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 3: the chronologies. 163 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, and we start to see that in land zoning 164 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 2: rules at laws. At the moment, I think we're in 165 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 2: early days, we're seeing the concern of food versus fuel 166 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 2: versus electrons. Now really start to rethink how we use 167 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 2: land or do we want our best cropping resource to 168 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 2: be covered in solar or even wind if it is 169 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 2: disruptive for the operations, and suddenly you think it, well, actually, 170 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 2: solar could go on the least productive field on the 171 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: edge of the farm if you like, or a carbon 172 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 2: forestry project could be put in one part of the 173 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 2: farm that was not otherwise productive. So when do you 174 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 2: think about these different asset class and how they could 175 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 2: each be deployed on the same parts of the land 176 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,359 Speaker 2: without undermining what we need food. 177 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: As a research project, I can see this getting very specific, 178 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 1: very quickly, because when we look about when we look 179 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: at renewables deployment, we're certainly aware of certain locations and 180 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: you had already highlighted you know, further north from the 181 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: equator that changes the capacity factors for solar and then 182 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 1: for wind you know variably you have to be in 183 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,319 Speaker 1: a place where there is the presence of enough gusts 184 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 1: of wind in order for it to work out. So 185 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 1: when you were looking at I guess at region by 186 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 1: region or country by country, how did you approach some 187 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 1: of these regional differences both now and then what are 188 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: your ambitions for the future, Because I can see this 189 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: getting very granular, very fast. 190 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 2: You're right, Dan, it's a really granular exercise. So actually, 191 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:22,959 Speaker 2: the way this is a model that basically drawing a 192 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:26,080 Speaker 2: square kilometer grid over the entire earth and identifying the 193 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 2: characteristics required to cite a good wind project or grow soy, 194 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 2: or build a hydrogen electrilizer. So what costasis build this 195 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 2: grid around then throw these characteristics out of you know, 196 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 2: for example cost us you could talk to some of 197 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 2: the characteristics for some of these technologies. 198 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:47,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, some of the characteristics into account were physical constraints 199 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 3: like slope elevation or their presence of water water bodies, 200 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 3: rivers and lakes. A lot of these for you mentioned 201 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 3: soy crop suitability, where we created some layers trying to 202 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 3: identify suitable soil intern characteristics for each crop we're looked into. 203 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 3: Also a lot of infrastructural layers we're taking into accounts, 204 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 3: such as railways, roads, industrial areas, and mining areas, which 205 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 3: were in some cases excluded or looked into more detail 206 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 3: in our analysis for their renewable asset side of things. 207 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 3: Renewable resources like windspeed and solar radiance were also accounted 208 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 3: for and allowed us to filter appropriate locations for the 209 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 3: development of those assets. 210 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: My favorite thing that you took into consideration was biodiversity 211 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: in these areas where maybe doing nothing is the right 212 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,559 Speaker 1: thing from a land you standpoint, But let's delve into 213 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 1: the areas of the world that are available to us. 214 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:46,199 Speaker 1: So invariably this work fed into the New Energy Outlook, 215 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: and then we have these two scenarios that we look 216 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: at within the New Energy Outlook. So in the first scenario, 217 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 1: which is the economic transition scenario, the name really tells 218 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: you what it is that we're looking at, which essentially is, 219 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: with the economics as we see in the energy transition 220 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 1: as it is right now, how could the future play out? 221 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 1: And that's kind of forgetting policy and leaving that to 222 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 1: the side. And the second scenario is our net zero scenario, 223 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: which starts with a different premise, which ultimately is if 224 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 1: we reach net zero by twenty fifty, what things need 225 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: to be true in the years leading up to that 226 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: in order for that to be a potential reality. So 227 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 1: within these two scenarios, within the New Energy Outlook exercise, 228 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: the work that you did, did you find that it 229 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: is possible for us to have these transitions? Do we 230 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:33,199 Speaker 1: have enough land? Essentially, is it even physically technically possible. 231 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 2: Well, it's worth point that the numbers are staggering regardless. Right, 232 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 2: So in clean power, the land footprint of solar and 233 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 2: wind is going to grow roughly five fold onto the 234 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 2: economic transition scenario that doesn't hit net zero leads us 235 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 2: above two degrees of warming. To hit net zero, we 236 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 2: need two point nine million square kilometers of earth. That's 237 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 2: that's over seven hundred million acres of land. To give 238 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 2: some perspective, that's larger than the land mass of India. Right, 239 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 2: it's absolutely enormous that we cover in wind and solar. 240 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 2: Do we have enough land? So, yes, we have enough 241 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,199 Speaker 2: land that has suitable solar resource and terrain or wind 242 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 2: resource for that sort of capacity, but it's probably being 243 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 2: used for something else. And that's the real constraint here 244 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 2: is we're probably going to run out of sight, what 245 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 2: disrupt other applications in deploying these the renewables. The biofuels 246 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 2: numbers are even more staggering and much more difficult to 247 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:20,239 Speaker 2: co locate as well or to think about multile applications. 248 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,199 Speaker 2: But in a net zero scenario, biofuels need three point 249 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 2: seven million square kilometers of earth. You know, that's one 250 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 2: point two billion acres, or an area larger than the 251 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 2: European Union, eighty percent the size of of the continental US. 252 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 2: It's enormous, and that is cropland, cropland that will be 253 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 2: used to grow soil, your canola or sugar into in 254 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 2: the future. 255 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: And with biofuels application really being limited to just those 256 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 1: parts of the economy where we don't have other alternatives 257 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 1: because it's not the first choice, for example, for energy generation, 258 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: but it certainly is when we're looking at sustainable aviation 259 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 1: fuel because that's the technology that's available to us right now. 260 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 2: Well, what's amazing about that three point seven million dollar 261 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 2: figar is that's a scenario where biofuels of road transport 262 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 2: fades away to zero, right So really that number rou 263 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 2: just reflects sustainable aviation fuels, some shipping, and a few 264 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 2: other other sectors our economic transition scenario that suggests we 265 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 2: don't hit net zero. It sees a lot more biofuels 266 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 2: being directed into fuels, but really actually that the market 267 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 2: overall shrinking into twenty fifty because there's electrification happening and 268 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 2: aviation fuels never really take off, so therefore we don't 269 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:23,839 Speaker 2: hit net zero. So it's absolutely crucial if we want 270 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 2: to decarbonize aviation and the only technology we have available 271 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 2: to us really decide of around twenty forty when e 272 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 2: fuels and some other technologies start to come about. It's 273 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 2: absolutely crucial that we electrify road transport. So we need 274 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 2: that land, We need that feedstock to grow fuel, feedstock 275 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 2: for other applications. 276 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 3: Some interesting numbers. China, the US, and India alone account 277 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 3: for just over half of the global land required to 278 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 3: accommodate our onshore wind and until the skills sol are 279 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 3: by twenty fifty under then at zero scenario, but none 280 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 3: of them are likely to face any land constraints or 281 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 3: a competition that would prevent clean energy roll loud. In 282 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 3: other areas like Australian Brazil, our analysis shows that the 283 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 3: solar and wind capacity require under below one percent of 284 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 3: the suitable land given their ample size. However, there will 285 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 3: be other implications, especially in Brazil, where there is a 286 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,199 Speaker 3: lot of areas of high bidiversity value and protected areas 287 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 3: which will potentially constrain the area suitability even more so. 288 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: Simply put, is it right to say that if you 289 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: are a big country and physical size, you have more 290 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 1: to play with, so you have fewer constraints, and if 291 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 1: you are a smaller country in physical size, this may 292 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: end up proving to be a challenge. And this in 293 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: the challenge is really reaching a net zero target. Because 294 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: most countries around the world have a net zero target, 295 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: many of them aligned with twenty fifty, although not all. 296 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 1: Is it right to say that the size of the 297 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 1: country gives them more flexibility? And therefore I guess who 298 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 1: are some of the countries that we need to be 299 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 1: most concerned about. 300 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, size and population matter, clearly, So big land masses 301 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 2: have lots of fleck ability and what technology is that 302 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 2: to data data deploy so long as it's not forest 303 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 2: covered or other resources that we really need to need 304 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 2: to protect. It also creates some opportunity, right, so you 305 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 2: think about what large land masses like like Brazil could 306 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 2: do for Latin America for other areas with less land suitability. 307 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 2: There's a proposal in Australia right coming probviously kind of 308 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 2: the pet project of two billionaires to develop a huge 309 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 2: solar array in the north of the country in the 310 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 2: desert with an undersea cable connecting to Singapore. Clearly, land 311 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 2: constrained and populous. From an Australian perspective, that sounds wild, 312 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 2: why do we need to build a massive solar product 313 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 2: up there? But from a Singaporean perspective and from a 314 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 2: Southeast Asian perspective, it starts to make a little bit 315 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 2: of sense to think about that sort of dynamic, and 316 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 2: that's really where we see the constraints being hit. So small, populous, mountainous, 317 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 2: forested countries are where we're all likely to hit a 318 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 2: constraint and even run out of land. That means on 319 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 2: our modeling, South Korea is likely the first to run 320 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 2: out of suitable wind sites, certainly without disrupting its food 321 00:15:56,280 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 2: production system. And forested areas Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia are the 322 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 2: places that we should be aware of as places that 323 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 2: will face constraints. But even in Western Europe, you know, 324 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 2: areas that don't have that same forest cover. We're already 325 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 2: seeing some infringement upon agricultural areas in the deployment of renewables. 326 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 3: Another factor which we have not explicitly accounted for in 327 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 3: our analysis, but could potentially reduce the amount of land 328 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 3: which will be eligible for our wind and asset is 329 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 3: I guess is great infrastructure and proximity to create as 330 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 3: well as grid stress. That is something that we have 331 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 3: not explicitly looked into in our analysis, and that's also 332 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 3: a big topic which could definitely create additional constrain the 333 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 3: available land of these big regions in the future. 334 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: Here they are grids rearing their head again. They feature 335 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: in so many shows. Okay, so we've talked about wind 336 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 1: and solar, we talked about biomass, and ever so briefly 337 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: in passing at the very beginning of the show, we 338 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: mentioned hydrogen. Are there other technologies that have the potential 339 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: to really take up a lot of land that we 340 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: should be thinking about. 341 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 2: It's not just the amount of land we should be concerned, 342 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 2: but we should really be concerned by by what is 343 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,120 Speaker 2: that land currently used for and what's what's sitting adjacent 344 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 2: to So another sector we dove deep into is critical minerals. 345 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,359 Speaker 2: Where are the minerals needed for ev batteries and transition metals, 346 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 2: Where are they going to be sourced from? Actually, what 347 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 2: you find is that a lot of that resource sits 348 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 2: in the tropics underneath quite valuable biodiversity regions. So you know, 349 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 2: the numbers not enormous there, we're going to see roughly 350 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 2: a fourfold increase in the amount of land needed for 351 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 2: those critical minerals to around one hundred and sixty thousand 352 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 2: square kilometers by twenty fifty. So that's small than the 353 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 2: clean power footprint today. You know, it's not an enormous number, 354 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 2: but it's in areas that are really really important to preserve. 355 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 3: For the extractive sector, we looked into where current mining 356 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 3: activity takes place. So we've analyized thousands of mines using 357 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 3: geospecific geospecial layerrors and basically the assumption is that a 358 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 3: lot of the additional and will be met by expanding 359 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 3: the current mines and where they are located instead of 360 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,639 Speaker 3: it's not very likely that we identify a lot of 361 00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 3: additional resources in new areas that we haven't explored yet. 362 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 3: So on the metals and mining, we've essentially stressed test 363 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 3: the current mines. The way we've done that we have 364 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:23,919 Speaker 3: created up to five buffer zones around each mine of 365 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 3: one kilometer each, and essentially what we find is that 366 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 3: a lot of the mines where they are now, they 367 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 3: currently overlap with protected areas of our areas of high 368 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,479 Speaker 3: bidiversity values. As you mentioned, this is very evident in 369 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,879 Speaker 3: South America, in Brazil, Chile, Peru where mining activity is 370 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 3: very high. But there are also some of the regions 371 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 3: with the most biodiverse areas globally. 372 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,159 Speaker 2: Mining and mining related. 373 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 3: Infrastructure drives a lot of the deforestation in those regions. 374 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:57,439 Speaker 2: So what we found in the critical minrum mining is 375 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 2: it about eight thousand square kilometers of mine area today 376 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:05,880 Speaker 2: falls within a protected area that's an environmentally biodiversity sensitive area, 377 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 2: around seven or eight percent of total mining activity today. 378 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:09,679 Speaker 2: But what we think is those minds are going to 379 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,399 Speaker 2: expand over time. That's more likely than building new minds 380 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 2: just because of permitting and resource barriers. So as those 381 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 2: minds expand, we draw these one kilometer incremental rings around 382 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 2: them and think about how they'll grow into the future. 383 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 2: We arrive at that sensitive area tripling more than tripling, 384 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 2: in fact by twenty fifty so to over twenty nine 385 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 2: thousand square kilometers, and that disturbance is really there to 386 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:31,880 Speaker 2: fuel the demand for battery metal. So we're trading off, 387 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 2: if you like this, a response to climate change, to 388 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 2: a greater biodiversity crisis. 389 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 1: So for the areas where it's really a good place 390 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 1: for us for a number of factors, including biodiversity for 391 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 1: us to be thinking about putting increasing amounts of renewables 392 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 1: or bio fuels or what have you on that space. 393 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: What are some of the ways to increase efficiency of 394 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: the use of that land? And we had already mentioned 395 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 1: earlier on colocation, So that's where you have more than 396 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 1: one technology. Are you're paying the same space? You know, 397 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 1: we often talk about it with wind and solar where 398 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 1: you have win turbines above and solar panels down below 399 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 1: and they both get to work in concert. What are 400 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 1: some of the other ways people are thinking about making 401 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 1: land more productive? 402 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 2: Sure, so I'd hesitate to say any of these there 403 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 2: are great for biodiversity, really looking for the least worst 404 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 2: outcomes here in causing biodiversity in nature damage. But you're right, 405 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 2: there's a number of ways. But we can think about this. 406 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 2: Co location has come up a number of times in 407 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 2: this conversation. So what else can you do on a 408 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 2: wind farm to mean that that application, that production system 409 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 2: doesn't need to move elsewhere cause more deforestation in cropping systems? 410 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 2: We need all this land for biofuels, Can we think 411 00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 2: about where that's grown and whether something else could be 412 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 2: grown in the off season what we call double cropping. 413 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 2: Growing one crop in in the spring, for example, one 414 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 2: in the fall winter could be a food plus fuel 415 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 2: cropping system. We could also really think about, in the 416 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 2: case of critical minerals, much greater investment in battery recycling. 417 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 2: Do we need the virgin resource at all if we 418 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 2: can improve our recycling networks. So there's a number of 419 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 2: different Each technology pathway here, whether it be the power system, 420 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,720 Speaker 2: the fuel system, or battery metals, has its own set 421 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 2: of solutions here. They might not get you to no damage, 422 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 2: but I think they can certainly alleviate some of these 423 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 2: massive numbers of land footprint. 424 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: So let's talk a little bit about agriculture and the 425 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,920 Speaker 1: food system. And you're spending a lot of your time 426 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 1: focused on that these days. And when we think about 427 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: biofuels and bioplastics, we often talk about them and frame 428 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: them in such a way where we say, okay, well 429 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 1: are they being competitive with crops that are then being 430 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: used for food. And once we add this layer of 431 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,199 Speaker 1: looking at the world in terms of land use, in 432 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: all of the different needs that we have for land 433 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: in addition to arable land for food, and you'd already 434 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 1: mentioned with increasing population in certain parts of the world 435 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: decreasing population in other parts of the world. But if 436 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: we look at the planet as a whole, what are 437 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: the implications for food production. 438 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think this research, this modeling exercise, really 439 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,760 Speaker 2: highlights that we don't have enough land to go about 440 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,160 Speaker 2: food production plan decarbonization in the way that we're currently doing. 441 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,400 Speaker 2: So we need to either think about agronomic practices, how 442 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 2: do you produce two crops from each part of the land, 443 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 2: or we need to think about alternative technology pathways for 444 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 2: aviation and the shipping sector, and that means pulling forward 445 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 2: technology curves twenty years. Right, that's a huge core. So 446 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,719 Speaker 2: probably the agronomic routes that the more realistic. But at 447 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,399 Speaker 2: the moment, what we're seeing is incentive schemes such as 448 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,880 Speaker 2: in the US with the tax credits available for sustainable 449 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 2: aviation fuels. Yes, encouraging some waste feedstock oils in particular, 450 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 2: but also you know examples of gaming in that system, 451 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 2: but otherwise encouraging food crops, you know, soy and corn 452 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 2: crops going into sustainable aviation fuels. So we need to 453 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 2: rethink what about a policy mechanism would be that doesn't 454 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 2: distort the system like that. There's other food implications here 455 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,479 Speaker 2: as well, that in the case of soy or corn, 456 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 2: or even canola, you're crushing that. In the case of 457 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 2: soy and canola for the oil, that's roughly twenty percent 458 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 2: of the crop for soy, the rest of which is 459 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 2: me that meal is the vast majority of or almost 460 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 2: entirely of it is sold as animal feed for chickens, 461 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 2: for pigs in some cases, in some cases cattle, in 462 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 2: which case you're probably going to see this massive glut 463 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 2: emerge over time where feed costs trend to zero because 464 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 2: there's such a huge amount of feed coming into the 465 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 2: marketplace as a result of fuel production. That distorts meat prices, 466 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 2: distorts consumer choices, may or may not have climate outcome, 467 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 2: depending on what animals consume that feed, but it becomes 468 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,640 Speaker 2: a really complex system that you need to think about. 469 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: So once we start to think about the world in 470 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: terms of land use, a lot of industries which seem 471 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,200 Speaker 1: like they might be isolated from one another are increasingly 472 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 1: interconnected because we need to think about what we're doing 473 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: with land, and invariably, as you started looking at this 474 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 1: in detail, I would imagine that it raised more questions 475 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: than it did fully provide us with answers. So as 476 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 1: we embark on researching this more, what are the next 477 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: things that you're going to look into. 478 00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,879 Speaker 2: So there's a couple of big ones in terms of 479 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 2: new areas, new new demand on land. I think one 480 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 2: extra sector that we should probably add to this analysis 481 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 2: in the future is our offset projects forestry in particular. 482 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,959 Speaker 2: But you know that's in many cases competing with these 483 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 2: sectors that we've modeled in terms of capability. We really 484 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 2: want to capture climate feedback loop here. So how are 485 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 2: crop yields going to change in the future Where crop 486 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 2: regions shift to some of that will free upland we 487 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 2: can longer crop it all right, but why not go 488 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 2: and put a solar array on it? And vice versas 489 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,439 Speaker 2: likely lead to rad constraints where we need need to 490 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 2: extract more crop yield from parcels of land and beyond that, 491 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,879 Speaker 2: you know, outside of the land project, this leads to 492 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,120 Speaker 2: policy questions. For example, in South Korea, if you don't 493 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 2: have enough citicuitable wind sits and solar sites to decarbonize 494 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 2: your power system, what should you be thinking about? Should 495 00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 2: you be thinking about nuclear again, or geotherm or how 496 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 2: are you incentivizing rooftop sol it or bring the capacity 497 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 2: into the urban environment. So lots of lots of technology 498 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:48,880 Speaker 2: questions there as well. 499 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,400 Speaker 1: And Hugh, certainly the part of the world you're from 500 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,159 Speaker 1: Australia and the part of the world I'm originally from California, 501 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: we do love rooftops solar. 502 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:57,679 Speaker 2: We do. We have a lot of land. That's the 503 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 2: thing the intend to for put solar everywhere once it's 504 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 2: cheap enough. But you know this kind of you know, 505 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,120 Speaker 2: what this analysis has done is that it said least 506 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 2: cost outcomes need to have this additional filter on top 507 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 2: of it is least cost with available resource and land 508 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,679 Speaker 2: here looks like it's going to be a constrained and 509 00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 2: biting resource for a decent share of the world. 510 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:19,800 Speaker 1: So really, to sum it up, how should we be 511 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 1: thinking about land and the competition between different things you 512 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 1: can put on that land. 513 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,160 Speaker 3: There is a lot of competition for productive and ecologically 514 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:32,639 Speaker 3: viable land and the resources service it provides, and this 515 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 3: is set to intensify more and more over the coming decades. 516 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 3: While some resources, let's say, like fossil fuels or clinical 517 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:44,160 Speaker 3: miners that we've talked about are exhaustible. Others such as 518 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,719 Speaker 3: timber or wood for biomass of fresh water, those can 519 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 3: be renewable. Land we can clearly put to different uses, 520 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,920 Speaker 3: but there are limits to its abedants, and the quantity 521 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,360 Speaker 3: of land is broadly speaking finding. At the same time, 522 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:03,000 Speaker 3: human use and environmental change can also degrade land, which 523 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 3: will eventually diminish its productivity and limit the extent and 524 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:10,400 Speaker 3: range of resources and services it can supply. In other cases, 525 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,120 Speaker 3: people often talk about land restoration as well, but because 526 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 3: often the process of restoration of land can take much 527 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,880 Speaker 3: longer than the process of degradation, land cannot be considered 528 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,199 Speaker 3: a renewable source. The chans why it's so competitive, or 529 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,919 Speaker 3: it can be very constrained in different parts of the world. 530 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 1: So, as with so many things regarding nature, we need 531 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 1: to begin with the end in mind. 532 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 3: We do so. 533 00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 2: We spend a lot of time talking today about colocation 534 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 2: or doing multiple things on one part of the land, 535 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 2: but that's not always going to be possible, and really, 536 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,639 Speaker 2: when it comes down to it, a farmer, for example, 537 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 2: in the future is going to face the choice between 538 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 2: continue to produce a food crop producing instead a likely 539 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 2: subsidized fuel crop, leasing that land to a solar plant operator, 540 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 2: growing a carbon offset project, and a number of other 541 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,640 Speaker 2: applications as well that we haven't included in this modeling. 542 00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 2: That will be an economic decision in the ad since 543 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 2: the clear policy guidance and zoning and direction on what 544 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 2: that land can be used for. That'll be who pays 545 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 2: the most and gives that gives that farm with the 546 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 2: most certainty. So we're going to hit constraints here in 547 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:13,160 Speaker 2: decarbonization if we're really willing to flex the food system 548 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,680 Speaker 2: and push the food system to its brink to lead 549 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 2: to this outcome. 550 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 1: And this list of things to consider when figuring out 551 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: what to do with the individual parcels of land. Do 552 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 1: you think for most of the world that's ultimately going 553 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 1: to come down to who owns that land or is 554 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 1: it going to come down to policy decisions and how 555 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 1: to optimize land use. 556 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 2: It will be both. We're already seeing policy moving in 557 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,639 Speaker 2: the space. We're seeing some regulators come out with approaches 558 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:40,359 Speaker 2: where they zone land, for example, pre approve one hundred 559 00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:42,960 Speaker 2: square columb of parcels for renewable projects for whoever goes 560 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,720 Speaker 2: out there and builds projects. In other areas where you 561 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,960 Speaker 2: can't develop. As an example, we see kind of disparate 562 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 2: approaches between some European nations Germany which has a renewables 563 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,680 Speaker 2: permity approach that makes it really difficult to challenge a 564 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,960 Speaker 2: project on the basis of nature of b adversity damage. 565 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,360 Speaker 2: I'm kind of somewhat different approach in the UK, where 566 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 2: it's going you can challenge those projects and can be 567 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,439 Speaker 2: difficult to build. Similarly, in the US, a real movement 568 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 2: the last few years in states or county level policy 569 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,359 Speaker 2: that makes it difficult to deploy renewables where it has 570 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 2: an impact on the agricultural system. Our Burder and Canada 571 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 2: last year put forward policy that makes it really difficult 572 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 2: where it impacts the food system or it impacts views 573 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 2: as an example, and then federally in the US thinking 574 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 2: about ways that they could alleviose those tensions and push 575 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,199 Speaker 2: renewables further. So policy is moving in very different directions 576 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 2: right now. It's not clear actually what's going to give here, 577 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 2: but it is very clear that there's this trade off 578 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,119 Speaker 2: between nature and decarbonization. 579 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,680 Speaker 1: Well, and hopefully as you too and your teams take 580 00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 1: ever deeper looks into the different things need to be 581 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 1: considered in order to make these decisions. Hopefully those will 582 00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: then weigh into what some of the decision makers actually 583 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,960 Speaker 1: are thinking about as they move forward. Cost Us, Hugh, 584 00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining on the show today. 585 00:28:53,400 --> 00:29:01,480 Speaker 3: Thanks Dana, Thank you very much, Thana. 586 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 1: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by Cam Gray 587 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 1: with production assistance from Kamala Shelling. Bloomberg NIF is a 588 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 1: service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates. This 589 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,959 Speaker 1: recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed, as 590 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 1: investment advice, investment recommendations, or a recommendation as to an 591 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 1: investment or other strategy. Bloomberg ANIF should not be considered 592 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 1: as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. 593 00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,560 Speaker 1: Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor any of its affiliates makes 594 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 1: any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness 595 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 1: of the information contained in this recording, and any liability 596 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 1: as a result of this recording is expressly disclaimed.