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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Is Trump on the brink of helping to bring an

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Speaker 2: end to the war in Ukraine? It is certainly something

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Speaker 2: that we're rooting for, and we will talk to our

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Speaker 2: friend Bill Rosio about it now. He's a senior fellow

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Speaker 2: at the Foundation for Defensive Democracies. You know him from

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Speaker 2: Long War Journal. He gets deep into this stuff, deep

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Speaker 2: into the weeds of conflicts abroad. Bill, let's start with this.

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Speaker 2: Can you just give me and we got a few

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Speaker 2: minutes here to do this. What is the status of

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Speaker 2: the conflict right now? Still ongoing? Right, no ceasefire, so

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Speaker 2: you still have both sides shooting at each other. Where

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Speaker 2: do we find ourselves as we look over the battlefield

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine? What is the status quo?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Hello, Buck, And the status is that the war continues.

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Speaker 1: The Russians are eating the uk Tranian cal one small

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Speaker 1: bite at a time. The Russians are making small gains daily,

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Speaker 1: but these gains add up. In the don Bas region,

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Speaker 1: which is made up primarily of the Luhansk and Donetsks

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Speaker 1: Oblast in eastern Ukraine. The Russians controlled nearly all of

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Speaker 1: Luhansk and about sixty sixty to seventy percent of the Donbas.

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Speaker 1: Remaining are two large cities of Slovyansk and Kremturisk, and

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Speaker 1: then there's several smaller cities. The Russians are surrounding one

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Speaker 1: city that used to be the key logistical hub for

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian forces. It's the city's called Proprosk, and the Russians

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Speaker 1: recently made a small breakthrough north of that city that

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Speaker 1: could have put the Russian troops into the rear of

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Speaker 1: the cities of Kremturisk and Slovayansk. The Ukrainians were able

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Speaker 1: to blunt that offensive, but it's come at a cost,

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Speaker 1: and that cost is that they stripped elite units from

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Speaker 1: their positions along the front to stop the Russians, and

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Speaker 1: that fighting is still ongoing. That outcome has still not

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Speaker 1: been decided. But apparently now the Russians, at least their

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Speaker 1: advance has been halted and now the Russians are advancing

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Speaker 1: in other areas, cities like Seversk and kas Tina Tanika.

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Speaker 1: These cities are you know, Russians are preparing to surround

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Speaker 1: both of those cities at this time. You know, a

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Speaker 1: lot of this is both buck This is a war

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Speaker 1: of both attrition and territory. So the Russians are certainly

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Speaker 1: winning the war of attrition. Ukrainians were able to make

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Speaker 1: that small breakthrough because some of these positions along the

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Speaker 1: front line, the trenches and fortifications, a lot of them

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Speaker 1: were unmanned. Ukrainians thought they could fill those, fill those

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Speaker 1: holes with drones, and Russians have come up with creative

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Speaker 1: ways to get around that. And that's but it's as

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Speaker 1: far as the war territory. As I said at the opening,

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Speaker 1: the Russians are taking small bits and pieces.

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Speaker 2: I'll ask you about about about the attrition, the attrition

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Speaker 2: part of this, because I'm curious. I've heard and this

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Speaker 2: was even when I was in the White House speaking

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Speaker 2: of some of Trump's national security officials back in June.

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Speaker 2: The numbers for the losses here and I know casualties, right,

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Speaker 2: people usually including fatalities and wounded in that. But the

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Speaker 2: numbers that they're telling me you are in the hundreds

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Speaker 2: of thousands at this point of soldiers, right, That's what

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Speaker 2: that's what the casualty figures are looking like. Does Russian manpower.

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Speaker 2: H is Russian manpower being depleted at a level where

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Speaker 2: it is uncertain they could continue this level of offensive

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Speaker 2: against the Ukrainian defensive positions or are there just so

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Speaker 2: many Russians and so much conscription that they could keep

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Speaker 2: doing this for years.

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Speaker 1: The Russians have a population four times of that of Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: They've shown a willingness to do you sacrifice forces. Now,

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Speaker 1: I dispute those numbers that we're seeing. Most of these

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Speaker 1: numbers come from the Ukrainians themselves, which have been inflating

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Speaker 1: casualties since the beginning of the war. We're seeing something

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Speaker 1: like twenty thousand Russians killed monthly as some of the reporting.

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Speaker 1: I'm highly let's.

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Speaker 2: Take into this. You know, you've looked at you and

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Speaker 2: you're I know, you're a long war journal You've been

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Speaker 2: a GWAT guy, you served the military yourself. You know,

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Speaker 2: see you you understand the casualty figures, the situation of

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Speaker 2: how this stuff gets tabulated. What do you think is

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Speaker 2: really what do you think the casualt numbers really are?

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Speaker 2: I mean, if somebody said to you, I really need

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Speaker 2: to know if Trump sat down and he said, look,

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Speaker 2: how many Russians do you think have been killed in

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Speaker 2: this conflict in three years. I'm talking soldiers now, not civilians.

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Speaker 2: And how many well that would not really affec Russian civilians,

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Speaker 2: but and how many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in

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Speaker 2: three years? What do you think is a realistic number?

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's really difficult. There's so much misinformation and

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Speaker 1: disinformation put out, largely on the Russian side of the casualties,

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Speaker 1: largely by the Ukrainians. And you know, have those numbers

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Speaker 1: maybe a quarter so perhaps one hundred thousand Russian dead Because.

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Speaker 2: This is what I was, this is what I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to get at. If the Russians have lost three or

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Speaker 2: four hundred thousand people, I mean truly like either killed

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Speaker 2: or combat ineffective forever, you know, wounded severely, They even

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Speaker 2: the Russians, can't keep that up for years ahead, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean, if they had lost a half a million

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Speaker 2: people already in the fighting, which is one of the

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Speaker 2: numbers I've heard, they're going to run out of people

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Speaker 2: pretty pretty you know soon. It sounds to me like

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Speaker 2: you're saying, no, they've lost a much lesser number than that,

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Speaker 2: and so this can continue much longer.

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Speaker 1: Look, even if they were taking that number of casualties.

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Speaker 1: I just look at what the amount of casualties the

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Speaker 1: Russians looked took in World War Two. I mean, six

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Speaker 1: million Russians are estimated to have been killed. How many

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Speaker 1: millions were captured by the Germans during the war as well.

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Speaker 1: It's their way of warfare. It has been, it always

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Speaker 1: has been their way of warfare. So what could we

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Speaker 1: take those level of casualties? Absolutely not, Buck, Can Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: take those level of casualties? I think they have been

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Speaker 1: and so have the Russians. But again I think even so, Look,

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Speaker 1: I would say even if that's.

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Speaker 2: Most important too, because you're telling me, you're telling me,

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Speaker 2: Bill that Putin knows that this is in the most grim,

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Speaker 2: macabre fashion. It's a numbers game, and it's a numbers

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Speaker 2: game that he's inevitbly gonna win if he stays on this.

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Speaker 1: It's exactly correct, Buck, Yeah, this is a game he

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Speaker 1: has calculating. The Russians are recruiting far more people know it,

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Speaker 1: but it's working and they're going to the front. It's

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Speaker 1: it's a different culture, it's a different way of life,

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Speaker 1: sacrifice and hard hardship for the Russians.

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Speaker 2: Let's get around then to the other side, because so

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Speaker 2: the Russian will to continue to fight, and that's critical.

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Speaker 2: And you've put out there why I have to give

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Speaker 2: a moment to our sponsor here, but I want to

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Speaker 2: come back and ask you, Bill, how could Ukraine what

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Speaker 2: would be required, not what will happen right, but just

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Speaker 2: theoretically take me through an order of battle of what

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Speaker 2: would be necessary for Ukraine to really turn the tide

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Speaker 2: right in a meaningful way. What will be some of

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Speaker 2: preborn dot com slash buck preborn dot com slash b

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Speaker 2: uc k. All right, now take me through, because I

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Speaker 2: think this is important that we're good. We'll get into

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Speaker 2: the diplomacy and negotiations here in a minutes bill. But

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Speaker 2: what would actually have to happen for Ukraine to be

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Speaker 2: able to hold the line and inflict Russian casualties at

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Speaker 2: such a rate that Russia wouldn't be in a position

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Speaker 2: to keep chipping away and eating more of Ukraine's territory.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's possible. I think the time has passed.

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Speaker 1: The best chance the Ukrainians had when they were given

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Speaker 1: the weapons and material in twenty twenty three offensive, which

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Speaker 1: we all watched, was a complete failure. That was the

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Speaker 1: high point in my estimation of the Ukrainian military. The

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Speaker 1: Russians would have to make such monumental mistakes for the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainians to be able to Now, Buck, are you talking

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Speaker 1: about what can drive the Russians out of or get the.

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian No, I mean, what could force a true stalemate

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Speaker 2: so that you know, because people have right, so that

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Speaker 2: Pudin thinks, Okay, I've gotten as much as I can get,

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Speaker 2: you know, under the current realities, is that achievable? No, No,

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Speaker 2: kicking all the Russians out. I don't think that achievable

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Speaker 2: at all. I mean because right now you still have

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Speaker 2: the Russians thinking or prudence thinking, We're going to keep,

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Speaker 2: you said, taking bites of the cookie or the apple

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Speaker 2: or whatever. We're gonna keep taking little pieces of territory.

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Speaker 2: Is it possible that the Ukrainians, with what better air cover,

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Speaker 2: better air defense, just more personnel, they'd be able to

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Speaker 2: say we actually because they're building these really elaborate trench

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Speaker 2: networks now, right, six layer trench networks. They get the

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Speaker 2: barbed wire, they get minefields, they get anti tank, they

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Speaker 2: get anti personnel. I mean, it's going all the way back.

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Speaker 2: Do you think that they'll be able to hold them

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Speaker 2: or are the Russians just gonna keep coming? Because I

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Speaker 2: think that's a critical calculation that affects the diplomatic side

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Speaker 2: of this.

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Speaker 1: Well, they would need to be able to man those

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Speaker 1: fortifications one which they want. The Ukrainians refuse to lower

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Speaker 1: the draft age below twenty five because of a demographic issue.

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Speaker 1: They recognize that if they start going up to that

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Speaker 1: population that they're going to have serious demographic issues after

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Speaker 1: the war ends. But the other side of that argument

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Speaker 1: is they're may not be a Ukraine left or a

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Speaker 1: viable Ukraine left if they don't begin the draft. So

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Speaker 1: that's again, that's how they were The Russians are able

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Speaker 1: to penetrate and take land because the Ukrainians can't man

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Speaker 1: all these fortifications that they built. They would need such

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Speaker 1: a massive influx of artillery systems and long and short

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Speaker 1: range drones and other air force. They would need a

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Speaker 1: massive air force. They'd need to be able to suppress

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Speaker 1: the Russian air force, not ad just at the line

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Speaker 1: of contact, but far beyond it. So that would require

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Speaker 1: a massive number of air defense units that would have

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Speaker 1: to be deployed forward. Again, they the time to receive

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Speaker 1: that equipment that's passed. I don't think the United States

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Speaker 1: is gonna supply it. I don't think that. You know,

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Speaker 1: we're talking hundreds and hundreds of billions of times.

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Speaker 2: Well you're you're somewhat bleak. If if I can characterize

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Speaker 2: it that way, you're somewhat bleak. Analysis of the Ukraine

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian military's prospects Bill I think is reflected very much

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Speaker 2: in Russian and Putin's attitude about all this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and also President Trump's desire to get a peace deal,

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Speaker 1: because I do think the administration does understand that things

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Speaker 1: aren't going as well for the Ukrainians as is being

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Speaker 1: told that. Look, I think the Ukrainians need a cease fire.

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Speaker 1: They need to be able to get those troops. Troops

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Speaker 1: are not being rotated off the line for months and

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Speaker 1: months at a time. Some guys have been serving on

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Speaker 1: the front lines in and out for since the beginning

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Speaker 1: of this conflict, even before this conflict began. It's just

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Speaker 1: not sustainable. The Putin certainly believes that he could grind

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Speaker 1: down the Ukrainians. That's what I'm watching him do now.

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Speaker 1: It's not simple. It's not something that the Russians can

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Speaker 1: do today, tomorrow, or even next month. But I look

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Speaker 1: at this in the term of what does it look

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Speaker 1: like six months or one year or two years from

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Speaker 1: now if the Russians are committed to maintaining this level

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Speaker 1: of fighting, which I believe they can do. This does

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Speaker 1: not bode well for Ukraine. They could you know, the

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Speaker 1: question is is is Ukraine going to have to make

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Speaker 1: some type of land concession or they go just going

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Speaker 1: to let the Russians take it over time. I don't

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Speaker 1: like any of this. Buck to be clear, I'm not

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Speaker 1: sitting here saying that the Ukrainians should see territory that

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Speaker 1: the Russians haven't taken. Ukrainians need to be looking for

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Speaker 1: creative ways to get a ceasefire so they can.

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Speaker 2: Be You're looking at the data and the maps and

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Speaker 2: everything every day, and I think so many people, including

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Speaker 2: you know, speaking just from a generalist media perspective, we

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Speaker 2: come in and come out on this issue. And even

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Speaker 2: though I've been very skeptical for years, you know, I

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Speaker 2: said when the first invasion happened, people are underestimating the

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Speaker 2: Russian from the very beginning. They're underestimating the Russian war machine.

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Speaker 2: They're underestimating the casualties which we were just talking about

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Speaker 2: that Russians willing to take, whether it's you know, fifty

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Speaker 2: thousand or five hundred thousand. I mean, they're underestimating the

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Speaker 2: russians willingness to stay in this fight even if casualties

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Speaker 2: get to really grotesque level, and that it's gonna cost

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Speaker 2: America the better part of a trillion dollars before this

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Speaker 2: thing is done. If we're really the financial backers of

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Speaker 2: all this, Okay, we're three hundred billion now, not quite

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Speaker 2: a we're getting We're gonna be at a half a

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Speaker 2: trillion for sure. And that's even if i think things

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Speaker 2: start to slow down a bit. But I'm I'm just

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Speaker 2: it's interesting to me, Bill, because there seems to be

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Speaker 2: such surprise. Why can't it deal? Why is it so

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Speaker 2: hard to get a deal done? And the most people

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Speaker 2: seem to think, oh, it's because of the negotiation over

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Speaker 2: the land. I want, you know, Zelenski wants this. Putin

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Speaker 2: wants that this is what's fair. If Putin thinks he's

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Speaker 2: gonna get even more by continuing the fight, he wants

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Speaker 2: to continue the fight. That's the that's the real problem.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is. And he wants more than just laand too,

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Speaker 1: to be clear, Buck, he wants, you know, a changing government.

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Speaker 1: He wants to ensure that there isn't NATO forces or

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Speaker 1: Western forces based in Ukraine. He wants basically Ukraine to

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Speaker 1: be a vassal state, to be a country like Belarus

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Speaker 1: that could be controlled, and Kranians aren't willing to do that,

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Speaker 1: nor should they be willing to do that. You know

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Speaker 1: what it's it's a conundrum. It's a catch twenty two

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Speaker 1: for the Ukrainians. How do they get this cease fire?

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Speaker 1: How do they get this deal without conceding. Look at

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Speaker 1: the very least, the Russians are never going to hand

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Speaker 1: over any of the land that they've grabbed so far,

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Speaker 1: and it's been significant, Over twenty percent of Ukrainian territory

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Speaker 1: has been taken by the Russians. So that's not going

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Speaker 1: to happen. But there has to be ways. You know.

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Speaker 1: This is where I'm looking at these these talks, and

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Speaker 1: I think it's a positive thing. I think Trump's doing

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Speaker 1: the right thing and making an effort.

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Speaker 2: Can we pause on where the talks o for one second.

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Speaker 2: I want to dive into that with our next segment

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Speaker 2: where privacy begins. All right, now, Bill, let's talk the

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Speaker 2: process here with a focus on what your what you

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Speaker 2: think Trump can realistically achieve, and how.

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Speaker 1: I think what could there. It's possible to get a ceasefire.

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Speaker 1: That is not a peace agreement that will settle this war,

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Speaker 1: but I do think it could be possible to get

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Speaker 1: a ceasefire. The thing that these talks will help do.

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Speaker 1: I think the Trump administration is still figuring out what

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Speaker 1: Putin wants and what Putin doesn't want, and that is

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Speaker 1: the one reason why these talks are positive. But Putin

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Speaker 1: doesn't want to cease fire. He wants basically, when he

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Speaker 1: says he wants a peace deal, what he really wants

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Speaker 1: is a surrender. This is why he's saying he won't

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Speaker 1: meet Zelensky until the peace deal is on the table,

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Speaker 1: which would be basically, come and sign your agreement to surrender,

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Speaker 1: because he believes he has all the cards. Look, there

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Speaker 1: are some cards that the West plays with sanctions, additional sanctions.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it'd be really nice if the Europeans stop buying,

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Speaker 1: you know, over.

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Speaker 2: This is what I was talking about on RADI of other day.

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Speaker 2: I said, people who are saying, oh, the sanctions are sanctions.

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Speaker 2: Europeans are still buying. I mean it's a fraction of

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Speaker 2: what it was, but on the oil side, but on

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Speaker 2: the natural gas side, they're still buying a ton of

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Speaker 2: Russian natural gas. It's cold and dusal dwarf in the

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Speaker 2: winter time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that's I if the West is serious.

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Speaker 1: I mean I saw that. I wasn't able to confirm this,

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Speaker 1: but it sounds right that the European buy more in

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Speaker 1: Russian petroleum products than they do donating to Ukraine yearly.

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Speaker 1: That's no, you know, they're so basically they're funding a war.

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Speaker 1: They're funding Russian's war. This is no way to fight

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Speaker 1: a war, This is no way to be a real

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Speaker 1: true ally. So these things need to be resolved. If

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Speaker 1: they can be resolved, maybe additional pressure could be placed

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Speaker 1: on the.

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Speaker 2: Other thing is these countries. Is I understand it. The

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Speaker 2: countries that we're told are stepping in, you know, China

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Speaker 2: and Iran and India and that are buying in Russian

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Speaker 2: oil because they don't care. Some of them are selling

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Speaker 2: it back to the Europeans. Yeah, so they're really just

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Speaker 2: in a middleman position. The whole thing is so screwed

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Speaker 2: up we're led to believe. Oh, Russia is this isolated power.

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Speaker 2: Does Russia look like the ruble has plunged, you know,

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Speaker 2: eighty percent and that the people can't get food in

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Speaker 2: the streets.

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Speaker 1: No.

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Speaker 2: In fact, if anything, their industrial capacity seems to be

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Speaker 2: from what you can see on the front lines right,

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Speaker 2: the industrial capacity seems to be improving, and they're putting

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Speaker 2: out more and better drones to use on those front

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Speaker 2: lines than ever before.

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Speaker 1: No, that's absolutely correct. They've actually outpaced the Ukrainians and

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Speaker 1: drone production now and employment and the technology for it

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Speaker 1: they've innovated in these areas. This is one of the

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Speaker 1: longer term concerns of mine. I know it's not something

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Speaker 1: you ask, but the Russians are learning about modern warfare

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Speaker 1: daily on the battlefield. It'll make them a more efford

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Speaker 1: This is what.

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Speaker 2: I was going to ask you about this. I worry

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Speaker 2: that this is a laboratory for what the warfare of

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Speaker 2: the future is going to be like. And the Russians

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Speaker 2: are getting quite a lesson.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, Buck, we learned all the wrong

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Speaker 1: lessons during the War on Terror, right, small wars, rules

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Speaker 1: of engagement, fear of casualties. The Russians are doing the

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Speaker 1: exact opposit.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the focus was on really the g WAT era, right,

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Speaker 2: there was so much focus on human intelligence collection SEA

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Speaker 2: and stuff like that, and really elite infantry rangers, seals,

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Speaker 2: SF and all this going after hvts, high value talk

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Speaker 2: you know in a rock Rofghanistan, And that was for

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Speaker 2: those conflicts. If you're talking about fighting against Russian military,

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Speaker 2: that that stuff is all you know. You can train

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Speaker 2: some private to fly. It doesn't matter how how good

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Speaker 2: you are, how strong you are, how good a shot

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Speaker 2: you are. If you've got a drone swarm over your head,

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Speaker 2: and there are privates so on the other side who

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Speaker 2: are able to send these hunter killer drones after you

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Speaker 2: to blow up right next to you. I mean that's

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Speaker 2: game over.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, you know. And on that point, you know,

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Speaker 1: I was watching I saw this video release by the

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Speaker 1: Marines and they were working on integrating drones into their units,

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Speaker 1: and they're saying, and we're gonna move forward with this

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Speaker 1: in December, and I just stood there with my mouth agape,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, what are you waiting for? As a

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Speaker 1: matter of fact, why wasn't this done to December's ago?

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Speaker 1: What war have you guys have been watching? And this

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Speaker 1: is a big concern of mine that we're still fighting

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Speaker 1: the last wars and we're not even caught up to

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Speaker 1: understanding the nature of these wars. Yeah, I completely agree.

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Speaker 2: With you, Buck, I mean, it's the the pace also

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Speaker 2: of the drone advancements that we see is both fascinating

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Speaker 2: and concerning. But our sponsor is Paradigm Press. You know,

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Speaker 2: the federal government has some funding problems and social security

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Speaker 2: for example, and thirty seven trillion in debt. What can

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Speaker 2: you do about this? Well, Trump's doing a lot and

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Speaker 2: this administration's trying, but what if there were something else.

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Speaker 2: Paradigm Press. Let me just ask you just the last

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Speaker 2: minute or two we have here, Bill, So, what do

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Speaker 2: you think happens with these peace negotiations and with this conflict?

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Speaker 2: What's your projection over the next six to twelve months.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to see a ceasefire or

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Speaker 1: a peace agreement anytime soon. I think the Trump administration

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Speaker 1: is going to learn that Putin has you know, believes

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Speaker 1: that he has the the advantage, that he's the one

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Speaker 1: actually holding the cards. And I think the Trump administration

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Speaker 1: will continue to try to engage. This is something that

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Speaker 1: President Trump likes, he likes to to, you know, show

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Speaker 1: that he's resolving conflicts. You know, we had the Armenia Azerbaijan,

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Speaker 1: we ran Pakistan, you know, getting a ceasefire between Israel

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Speaker 1: and Iran. I'm sorry that was India Pakistan. And so

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Speaker 1: I think he's going to continue to make these efforts.

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Speaker 1: But I think in the sixth next six months, I

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Speaker 1: think you just could see a continuation of the fighting

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Speaker 1: and I think you'll see these small gains by the

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Speaker 1: Russians the land Gulf, several of these smaller cities, and

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Speaker 1: they're going to begin to put pressure within the next

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Speaker 1: year and put it set itself up in a position

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Speaker 1: to take what it wants to achieve via a peace agreement,

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Speaker 1: so called peace agreement.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bill Roggio of FDD Foundation of Defense and

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Speaker 2: Democracy has always appreciate you, sir.

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Speaker 1: Good to see you. Great to see you, Buck, Thanks

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Speaker 1: for having me on.

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Speaker 2: Thank you