WEBVTT - RBA Decision Preview, Xi-Macron Summit Latest

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner.

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<v Speaker 2>You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories,

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<v Speaker 2>making news and moving markets in the APAC region. You

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<v Speaker 3>The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to keep its

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<v Speaker 3>policy rate on hold, but there are some interesting complications.

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<v Speaker 3>Joining us now is James McIntyre, Bloomberg Asia economist covering

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<v Speaker 3>Australia and New Zealand. So we've had a dovish tilt here.

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<v Speaker 3>But then, well, let me put it to you, what

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<v Speaker 3>do you find most interesting about the background to this decision?

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<v Speaker 4>Oh?

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<v Speaker 1>Look, I think that's a good question. We have seen

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<v Speaker 1>the IBA be a little bit division February, a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit more division March, but rot now it's looking like

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<v Speaker 1>we haven't heard much from the RBA since their last

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<v Speaker 1>meeting in March. But it's likely that we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>get almost a bit of a one eighty, but not

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<v Speaker 1>the full one eighty to a hike. But we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to see. I think the RBA become a bit more

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<v Speaker 1>hawkish today. So it's not just something that's following the Fed.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a wholly bit of domestic economic news and data

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<v Speaker 1>that sort of driving this shift down under.

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<v Speaker 2>So from what I'm reading, and correct me if I'm wrong, James,

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<v Speaker 2>the market is still pricing in a hike at some

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<v Speaker 2>point this year. Can you give us an understanding of

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<v Speaker 2>what's happening in Australia's economy that would allow the RBA

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<v Speaker 2>to kind of make this hawkish pivot and for the

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<v Speaker 2>market to continue to price in a hike at some point.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Well, look, it's really interesting that market pricing, how

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<v Speaker 1>significantly that's shifted compared to when the RBA lasted a

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<v Speaker 1>set of quarterly forecasts. They're going to have a new

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<v Speaker 1>set of quarterly forecasts today. Compared to back in February

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<v Speaker 1>when they last forecast, the market was pricing in over

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty four seventy five basis points of cuts and

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<v Speaker 1>then another forty or fifty basis points of cuts in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty five. You know, today, however, the RBA has

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<v Speaker 1>got a very you know, the markets are pricing a very,

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<v Speaker 1>very different situation with with that that potential or a

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<v Speaker 1>hike partially priced in for later on this year. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>when we look across the economy, though, what's behind this

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<v Speaker 1>shift in in markets. Well, we've had an unemployment rate

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<v Speaker 1>that has really surprised. There was some incredibly strong jobs

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<v Speaker 1>growth that we had in February, and we all expected

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<v Speaker 1>in March that would that would reverse course, a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of statistical payback. But what happened was that the unemployment

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<v Speaker 1>rate didn't move the way we would have thought, and

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<v Speaker 1>so instead the RBA is looking at a much much

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<v Speaker 1>tighter labor market. And then we got inflation data for

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<v Speaker 1>the first quarter. For the March quarter of the year,

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<v Speaker 1>we had particularly the underlying inflation. The RBA focuses on

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<v Speaker 1>a trimmed mean measure, which removes some of the outliers

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<v Speaker 1>of within the CPI basket. That trim mean measure grew

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<v Speaker 1>by one percent in the quarter, very much, showing that

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<v Speaker 1>where we're you know, that or a bit of an

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<v Speaker 1>interruption on that dissiplation path.

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<v Speaker 4>You know.

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<v Speaker 1>It's so these are the sort of the two key

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<v Speaker 1>pieces of economic data that have set that market pricing

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<v Speaker 1>moving the way it is, and that whiplash from February.

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<v Speaker 1>But when we look at the other data on the economy,

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<v Speaker 1>consumers and spending, it's still a very very weak story.

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<v Speaker 1>Retail sales data coming out and disappointing. We're still, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're looking that we will see even if the economy

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<v Speaker 1>grows overall in per capita terms, because we have that

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<v Speaker 1>strong population growth per capita GDP will be extending its recession.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's a very very weak household sector. But nonetheless,

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<v Speaker 1>some of these concerning things still out there, from inflation

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<v Speaker 1>not dissipating as quickly, still falling but not fast enough,

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<v Speaker 1>and the labor market being a little bit tighter, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think those are the things that markets are focused on.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberry Economics believes that a cut is actually the next move.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's my call. So my base case is that

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<v Speaker 1>we're still we've got this little bit of an interruption

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<v Speaker 1>right now, but in the what was looking like an

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<v Speaker 1>immaculate disinflation and a continued march toward easing. This is

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a speed bump. But we think

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<v Speaker 1>that as that weakness in the economy persists, the migration

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<v Speaker 1>boom begins to ease back, taking some wind out of

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<v Speaker 1>the demand side of the economy, that we'll see that

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<v Speaker 1>unemployment rate rise, that inflation fall away, and we will

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<v Speaker 1>still be on track for the RBA's next move being

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<v Speaker 1>a cut. Today they're going to sound hawkish, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a threat, not a delivery.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, So the market will do a lot of the

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<v Speaker 2>work for the RBA. Then, is that what you're saying

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<v Speaker 2>very much?

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<v Speaker 1>And this is where that very big shift in market

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<v Speaker 1>pricing is actually going to do a lot of heavy

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<v Speaker 1>lifting for the RBA. They factored in that those rate

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<v Speaker 1>cuts into their last set of forecasts and had inflation

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<v Speaker 1>going back towards the middle of the target ban in February,

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<v Speaker 1>So we've got about inflation being about twenty basis points

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<v Speaker 1>higher than we thought for the starting point. But we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to have sixty to seventy extra basis points of

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<v Speaker 1>monetary policy tightening being baked into their fullcasts, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be what cruels growth, keeps inflation heading to target,

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<v Speaker 1>and is really going to be about that difference between

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<v Speaker 1>the RBA making the threat and delivering the threat is

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<v Speaker 1>what they're going to be safe with for today.

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<v Speaker 3>You mentioned that consumers who are tilting a little weaker,

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<v Speaker 3>and in some cases we see that in the United

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<v Speaker 3>States as well, and we do have sort of deglobalization

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<v Speaker 3>and industrialization reshuring that's kind of helping out in the

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<v Speaker 3>United States in terms of mitigating factors for the Australian economy.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm just curious to bring this around to China. Does

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<v Speaker 3>China trade factor in very much? Does China tourism matter

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<v Speaker 3>very much? And basically is, you know, our exports are

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<v Speaker 3>going to play an important role in the revival of

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<v Speaker 3>the Australian economy.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, one of the things that's been a big part

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<v Speaker 1>of the strength and the revival in the post COVID

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<v Speaker 1>recovery has been a type of tourism from China and

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<v Speaker 1>that is international students. So when we as economists, when

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<v Speaker 1>the stats agencies measure these things, they call education exports

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<v Speaker 1>part of the tourism services exports sector. And those students

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<v Speaker 1>have come back to Australia in a big way. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's what's driven up that population story, that migration boom.

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<v Speaker 1>It's what's holding up house prices and creating a real

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<v Speaker 1>tension within rental markets, a little bit of an inflation

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<v Speaker 1>headache there within that pocket of the economy for the

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<v Speaker 1>RBA from that return of not just Chinese but also

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<v Speaker 1>Indian students. Looking forward the China story for Australia, Look,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not just those services exports. It is about that

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<v Speaker 1>commodity story and especially with steel and iron ore. So

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<v Speaker 1>we've had a real kind of you know, flashing red

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<v Speaker 1>light from China's cratering property sector for the last year

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<v Speaker 1>or two. But critically for Australia, iron ore prices and

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<v Speaker 1>unein and or demand have remained quite high, so you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we've still been managing to bumble along with strength in

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<v Speaker 1>other parts of the global economy, Australia's exports being commodity based.

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<v Speaker 2>Mentioned property as it relates to China. What's the property

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<v Speaker 2>story right now in Australia, particularly in an environment where

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<v Speaker 2>credit is pretty tight.

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<v Speaker 1>So credit has been tight, but the property market we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen residential house prices continuing to grow record highs now

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<v Speaker 1>there is a bit of there's a bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>two speed story going on within the economy. Melbourne and

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<v Speaker 1>Sydney house prices are a little bit softer. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>two main cities and most of where the international migration

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<v Speaker 1>comes into they're very, very stretched on affordability. Rate hikes

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<v Speaker 1>are herding there, whereas in other cities affordability is so

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<v Speaker 1>much better and we're getting a very big boom. So

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<v Speaker 1>there's a big lot of help there from the population

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<v Speaker 1>story and still a bit of strength despite rates.

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<v Speaker 3>James, thank you so much. James McIntyre, Bloomberg Asia Economist,

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<v Speaker 3>covering Australia and New Zealand. And again the RBA is

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<v Speaker 3>set to keep its policy rate on hold, but meat

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<v Speaker 3>tilt a little hawkers. Here are the headlines from President

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<v Speaker 3>She's trip to Europe. Obviously, the trip has begun. The

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<v Speaker 3>EU says we're ready to use all trade tools to

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<v Speaker 3>defend against China. President She has urged Emmanuel Macron to

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<v Speaker 3>help China avoid a new Cold War, and Hungry plans

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<v Speaker 3>at least sixteen agreements with China during this visit. So

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<v Speaker 3>joining us now on the program to discuss a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit of this carrot and stick approaches. Rebecca Chung Wilkins,

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Asia Government and Politics Correspondent. We're seeing a little

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<v Speaker 3>of both here at the moment, and it seems like

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<v Speaker 3>Ursula Vanderlin was carrying the stick.

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, I mean this is sort of really interesting because

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<v Speaker 5>part of this whole trip is the balance between what

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<v Speaker 5>the EU wants and they, of course the bloc that

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<v Speaker 5>have rolled out this litany of probes versus the interest

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<v Speaker 5>the interest of specific member nations, and where you know,

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<v Speaker 5>those two sort of conflict is precisely where Si Jinping

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<v Speaker 5>hopes to kind of make his point that actually to

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<v Speaker 5>individual countries such as France, but also for example, such

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<v Speaker 5>as Hungary, it's more advantageous to actually pursue more open

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<v Speaker 5>economic trade barriers and so rather than kind of supporting

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<v Speaker 5>the EU's more hawkish stance, which of course is closer

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<v Speaker 5>to the US position.

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<v Speaker 2>So the French Finance Minister Bruno Lamarre has used the

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<v Speaker 2>term happy globalization and advocating for the end to it.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, when you look at the bloc, the European Union,

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<v Speaker 2>this is an amazing This is an incredibly large market

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<v Speaker 2>for China to export into. Are they is the administration

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<v Speaker 2>or when I say the administration, Shi Jinping, the leaders

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<v Speaker 2>in Beijing, are they at risk of damaging this opportunity

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<v Speaker 2>for them to be able to kind of allow the

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<v Speaker 2>Chinese economy to recovery, Yes, but not necessarily going hog

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<v Speaker 2>wild when it comes to exporting all of the over capacity.

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<v Speaker 5>I think it's incredibly important, and I think that's in

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<v Speaker 5>part why, of course, we are seeing Seasonpin going to

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<v Speaker 5>the Eupean Union at this moment, the first trip in

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<v Speaker 5>five years. The block is incredibly important in also supporting

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<v Speaker 5>that growth. Of course, we have seen China shift to

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<v Speaker 5>the New three, the so called new three drivers of growth,

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<v Speaker 5>which includes all of these products evs, batteries, solar panels,

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<v Speaker 5>which are the very focus of the EU probe. So

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<v Speaker 5>it is essential from Beijing's point of view to keep

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<v Speaker 5>this channel open. Now they have been firm that, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>Sheasonping has said there is no issue of Chinese over capacity,

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<v Speaker 5>and there has been debate, you know, even within the

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<v Speaker 5>EU two about precisely how sharp or how pointed that

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<v Speaker 5>effort is. And I think from Beijing's point of view,

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<v Speaker 5>there is this worry that the EU is falling lockstep

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<v Speaker 5>in with the US without actually sort of considering the

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<v Speaker 5>specifics of that over capacity issue and the real pain points.

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<v Speaker 5>The sort of worst case scenario, of course for Beijing

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<v Speaker 5>is that the EU launches into a full trade war,

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<v Speaker 5>or even before that sort of introduces these prohibitively high

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<v Speaker 5>tariffs on things like evs.

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<v Speaker 3>The Chinese papers, of course, are saying that the French

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<v Speaker 3>president thanked She for a commitment not to sell arms

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<v Speaker 3>to Russia, and also that they agreed or they support

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<v Speaker 3>an Olympic truce during the Games in Paris. Can you

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<v Speaker 3>fill in some of the details on those two.

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<v Speaker 5>Yes, I mean this has been a huge sticking point,

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<v Speaker 5>I think not just for France and China, actually, it

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<v Speaker 5>should be said, but for several European nations. There has

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<v Speaker 5>been increasing frustration with China and what is perceived to

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<v Speaker 5>be its lack of movement in trying to halt the

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<v Speaker 5>war or bring about a cease fire that is more

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<v Speaker 5>amenable to the Ukrainian side. Of course, and China does

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<v Speaker 5>have its own sort of blueprint for priests, we may

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<v Speaker 5>call it, but that has not been sort of palatable

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<v Speaker 5>for many European nations, and so it still is a problem.

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<v Speaker 5>I would say that although there is this discomfort between

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<v Speaker 5>these sort of cozy ties between She and Putin, we

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<v Speaker 5>have actually seen trade between Russia and China fall in March.

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<v Speaker 5>That's the first time since twenty twenty two. So it

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<v Speaker 5>does look like some of these sort of threats of reprisals,

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<v Speaker 5>particularly from the US side, but also echoed in some

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<v Speaker 5>parts of the European Union, may be actually having an

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<v Speaker 5>impact on that trade between China and Russia, which of

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<v Speaker 5>course has helped support Russia through the course of the

0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.040
<v Speaker 5>war and sort of counter at the balance and the

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<v Speaker 5>effect of sanctions for example.

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<v Speaker 2>So, Rebecca, what are we expecting from she when he

0:12:55.120 --> 0:13:00.280
<v Speaker 2>visits Serbia and Hungary? How might his relations in those

0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:04.400
<v Speaker 2>countries differ than to what we have been seeing in France.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, this is going to be a really interesting portion

0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:09.160
<v Speaker 5>of the trip, I think, and in two sort of

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.520
<v Speaker 5>big ways. The first is that this is stent Ping's

0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 5>real opportunity to showcase the advantages of engaging with China.

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<v Speaker 5>These are two countries that are very friendly to China,

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<v Speaker 5>that have accepted various investment projects. For Serbia that's more

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<v Speaker 5>sort of industrially inclined more about steel. For Hungary we've

0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:32.840
<v Speaker 5>seen for example, byd agreeing to open a factory there,

0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:39.679
<v Speaker 5>among other plans. There's also railway potential investment opportunity too.

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<v Speaker 5>And so this is sort.

0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:41.959
<v Speaker 1>Of the carrot.

0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:44.320
<v Speaker 5>The carrot part of the trip to use to use

0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:48.120
<v Speaker 5>your frameworks showcasing that China, if you let in some

0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:51.000
<v Speaker 5>of its and you remain open to its investments, can

0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:54.600
<v Speaker 5>bring in its own companies, but can also create jobs

0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.080
<v Speaker 5>in that market. The other part is to send a

0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:00.120
<v Speaker 5>signal reaffirming ties to Russia, because of both of these

0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:02.400
<v Speaker 5>nations own close ties to Russia.

0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:05.680
<v Speaker 3>All right, Rebecca, thank you, Rebecca Chong Wilkins, Bloomberg Asia

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:07.680
<v Speaker 3>Government and Politics Correspondent.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's take a closer look at the situation in Gaza.

0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:21.560
<v Speaker 2>Ed just reported that Israel has stepped up some attacks

0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 2>in the southern city of Rafa. This came just hours

0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:28.440
<v Speaker 2>after Hama said there was a ceasefire proposal that had

0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:32.440
<v Speaker 2>been drafted and put forth by mediators from Egypt and Cutter,

0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:37.360
<v Speaker 2>but Israel's Prime minister was unwilling to accept those terms.

0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:40.560
<v Speaker 2>Our guest now is Ariel Cohen. He is a senior

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.480
<v Speaker 2>fellow at the Atlantic Council. Ariel, thank you so much

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:44.960
<v Speaker 2>for being with us. It's always a pleasure.

0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 5>Give me your.

0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.840
<v Speaker 2>Sense with all the newsflow and how volatile the situation

0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:51.840
<v Speaker 2>has been. Give me your sense of where we stand

0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:52.360
<v Speaker 2>at the moment.

0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:56.240
<v Speaker 4>First of all is the Holocaust Memorial Day. Today, we

0:14:56.360 --> 0:15:01.800
<v Speaker 4>remember six million Jews including one point five million children

0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.600
<v Speaker 4>who were slaughtered by the Nazis in World War two.

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<v Speaker 4>So just to put things in perspective. Second of all,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm distraught that after the attack on Israel on October seventh,

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.880
<v Speaker 4>the radical students and professors in Ivy League and other

0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:24.720
<v Speaker 4>schools in this country decided to destabilize America, destabilize a

0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:29.440
<v Speaker 4>campus that destabilize the learning process in favor of their

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:36.920
<v Speaker 4>support of Hamas. This is untenable, unimaginable. And here we are, finally,

0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 4>in terms of the reporting that Israel rejected the proposal.

0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:45.520
<v Speaker 4>My understanding is that Hamas rejected the proposal just until

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:50.920
<v Speaker 4>today and when Israel started preliminary bombardments of Rafach, the

0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:55.200
<v Speaker 4>last city where Rama's leadership is holding up, presumably with

0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 4>the hostages. Only then Hamas started saying that they're accepted

0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:03.160
<v Speaker 4>something which Israel says they didn't see. Israel did not

0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:07.640
<v Speaker 4>see the proposal that Kamas is allegedly accepting.

0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:10.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, there's a lot in what you said there. I

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:12.720
<v Speaker 3>think that we need to push back on a little bit.

0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:15.160
<v Speaker 3>I mean, people who know you, and people know you

0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:18.120
<v Speaker 3>on this program know that you're a strong proponent of

0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:22.320
<v Speaker 3>Israel and that's understandable. One thing that you said was

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:27.440
<v Speaker 3>that Israel is not very familiar with exactly what's in

0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:30.120
<v Speaker 3>the proposal, although in most of the reporting it says

0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:33.320
<v Speaker 3>that Hamas agreed to a cease fire proposal and that

0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:36.440
<v Speaker 3>the Israeli cabinet rejected it. Secondly, you said that the

0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:40.640
<v Speaker 3>students are showing their support of Hamas. That is not

0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 3>completely correct. They are supporting Palestinians and they are unhappy

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 3>with the treatment that average Palestinians have in Goza and

0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:52.400
<v Speaker 3>the fact that so many are homeless and so many

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:57.160
<v Speaker 3>have died. So my question, I guess, goes to how

0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:01.240
<v Speaker 3>concerned are you that US public opinion it certainly feels

0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:04.240
<v Speaker 3>as though it is swinging a little bit away from Israel,

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:06.360
<v Speaker 3>And how much danger do you see in that?

0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:12.600
<v Speaker 4>I see that this is probably a watershed for this country.

0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:16.640
<v Speaker 4>First of all, when students are calling for a ceasefire

0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:20.680
<v Speaker 4>in a war in which a democracy and an ally

0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:24.960
<v Speaker 4>of the United States, after a horrible attack, the equivalent

0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:29.119
<v Speaker 4>of fifty five thousand Americans murdered in one day, is

0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:32.159
<v Speaker 4>trying to defend itself and do what we try to

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:36.600
<v Speaker 4>do with ISIS and al Qaida, to destroy the leadership

0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:42.000
<v Speaker 4>of the organization. And if we today don't see, don't

0:17:42.040 --> 0:17:45.720
<v Speaker 4>recognize who are the allies, who are the enemies, what

0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:50.840
<v Speaker 4>the purpose of the enemy is, which is the global qualified?

0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:54.520
<v Speaker 4>After all, KAMAS is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood,

0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:57.400
<v Speaker 4>a jihadi organization, as they say in the Middle East,

0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:01.000
<v Speaker 4>the grandmother or the grandfather of Old Jai, the organizations

0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:05.000
<v Speaker 4>including Al Kaeda analysis, then this country is really confused.

0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:08.680
<v Speaker 4>We're confused who our allies are. We gave up and

0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:15.040
<v Speaker 4>abandoned our allies in Afghanistan. It took us six months

0:18:15.200 --> 0:18:18.639
<v Speaker 4>to deliberate about support of the Ukrainians who are fighting

0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.720
<v Speaker 4>for their lives. And now we're signaling and the administration.

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.880
<v Speaker 4>I talked to senior officials in this administration who say,

0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:29.960
<v Speaker 4>we're threatening Israel with cutting off military supply. We're threatening

0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:35.800
<v Speaker 4>our our most committed ally in the Middle East. Bar

0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.199
<v Speaker 4>None was cut off of the military supply. Yes, it

0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:43.399
<v Speaker 4>is a war, and in war people die, and hundreds

0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:45.360
<v Speaker 4>of thousands of people died in the Middle East after

0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:45.920
<v Speaker 4>nine eleven.

0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:49.960
<v Speaker 2>So Ariel, let's imagine a world where the upshot of

0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:53.600
<v Speaker 2>the demonstrations that you have described served to undermine support

0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:59.080
<v Speaker 2>for the Bided administration and maybe former President Trump is

0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:01.840
<v Speaker 2>re elected to another term. What does this do to

0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:05.400
<v Speaker 2>the situation that we're looking at in Israel and more

0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:06.840
<v Speaker 2>broadly in the Mid East.

0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:12.119
<v Speaker 4>First of all, I think it is ludicrous if true

0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:16.359
<v Speaker 4>what Politica was reporting yesterday that some of the major

0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:20.920
<v Speaker 4>donors of President Biden and of the Democratic Party, including

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:28.080
<v Speaker 4>George Soros, the Rockefeller Fund, the Tides Foundation, allegedly the

0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:34.480
<v Speaker 4>Pritzter family are donating directly or indirectly to these demonstrations

0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:38.480
<v Speaker 4>that may just may shift the vote of the students

0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:41.119
<v Speaker 4>to the likes of Jill Stein of the Green Party

0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:47.679
<v Speaker 4>and Cornell West and these two three percent will be

0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:51.200
<v Speaker 4>sufficient in the battleground states for mister Biden to lose.

0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:54.600
<v Speaker 4>Is that what these donors and these students want. Do

0:19:54.680 --> 0:19:58.200
<v Speaker 4>they really want dal Trump to win? And if dal

0:19:58.280 --> 0:20:03.240
<v Speaker 4>Trump wins, nobody know. It's totally unknown what his position

0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:06.200
<v Speaker 4>is going to be on anything. On Russia, on Ukraine,

0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:09.040
<v Speaker 4>on the Middle East, on China. We do not know.

0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.200
<v Speaker 4>And we saw there was a strategic show by Trump

0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:17.440
<v Speaker 4>and by this Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson on Ukraine,

0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.600
<v Speaker 4>and I was very happy about that because I support

0:20:20.640 --> 0:20:25.719
<v Speaker 4>independence of Ukraine and it's territorial integrity. But as I

0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:32.399
<v Speaker 4>said this, these demonstrations are empowering than Trump, the Trump

0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:34.800
<v Speaker 4>momentum in these elections, that.

0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:37.240
<v Speaker 2>Is certainly something that is being considered at the moment.

0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:40.080
<v Speaker 2>It's always a pleasure. Thank you for joining us and

0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:43.640
<v Speaker 2>filling us in on your thinking, your perspective. Ariel Khan,

0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:45.680
<v Speaker 2>a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.

0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.520
<v Speaker 3>This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the

0:20:51.560 --> 0:20:55.040
<v Speaker 3>stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific.

0:20:55.280 --> 0:20:58.440
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