1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,480
Speaker 1: Get the latest news at the click of a button

2
00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:07,640
Speaker 1: inside your car. The new Bloomberg Business App, now featuring

3
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:11,520
Speaker 1: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto. Listen to all your favorite

4
00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:16,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg radio stations and podcasts, including Bloomberg Surveillance, plus the

5
00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:20,480
Speaker 1: latest news, all on your dashboard. It's free and easy

6
00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:24,120
Speaker 1: to use. Just download the Bloomberg Business App on your

7
00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:27,880
Speaker 1: smartphone and connect the phone to your car. The Bloomberg

8
00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,960
Speaker 1: Business App now with Apple car Play and Android Auto features.

9
00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,000
Speaker 1: Download it free in the Apple Store or on Google Play.

10
00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:45,360
Speaker 1: Presented by our sponsor, Interactive Brokers. This is the Bloomberg

11
00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,320
Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and

12
00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,800
Speaker 1: Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the

13
00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:58,080
Speaker 1: best and economics, geopolitics, finance, and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg

14
00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:02,360
Speaker 1: Surveillance on demand on Apple, Well, Spotify and anywhere you

15
00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:06,160
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the

16
00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

17
00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:12,000
Speaker 2: Is the Fed Done? Is this basically what we're looking

18
00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,559
Speaker 2: at right now? The all clear sign for the Federal

19
00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:17,440
Speaker 2: Reserve to have to do more. Jay Brison, Chief Economist,

20
00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:19,399
Speaker 2: it W Wells Fargo joining US. Now I ask that

21
00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:21,720
Speaker 2: to you, Jay, does this sound the all clear for

22
00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:22,119
Speaker 2: the FED?

23
00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:23,959
Speaker 1: It does for right now, Lisa.

24
00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:25,800
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, these numbers are going to bounce

25
00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,240
Speaker 3: around on a month by month basis. You know, I wouldn't.

26
00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,679
Speaker 3: Our view is that the FED probably is done. But

27
00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:34,399
Speaker 3: I don't expect FED officials to be coming out just

28
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,000
Speaker 3: because of this one report saying oh it's all clear,

29
00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,119
Speaker 3: everything's great out there. I mean, I think they're still

30
00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:43,440
Speaker 3: going to continue to be biased to potentially tightening. We

31
00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,720
Speaker 3: don't think that will happen, but you know, in the

32
00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,480
Speaker 3: next few months, these numbers kind of reverse and they

33
00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,440
Speaker 3: kind of pop up, and the economy expands at a

34
00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:55,120
Speaker 3: stronger unexpected rate, you could potentially see them going But again,

35
00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,360
Speaker 3: I think that's a that's a high bar at this point.

36
00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:59,560
Speaker 2: This adds to signs that there is some sort of

37
00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,080
Speaker 2: cool and this is the reason why so many people

38
00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,400
Speaker 2: are talking about a soft landings. You haven't seen the

39
00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,840
Speaker 2: real cracks you'd expect ahead of a massive recession. Jay,

40
00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:11,040
Speaker 2: do you think that is an accurate categorization of exactly

41
00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,000
Speaker 2: what we're seeing with prices not going up as much

42
00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:15,000
Speaker 2: as people had expected.

43
00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:17,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's right, you know. I mean, if

44
00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,400
Speaker 3: we were still clipping along at a year over year

45
00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:23,280
Speaker 3: rate on the core of a five percent, we'd be

46
00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,680
Speaker 3: talking about the Fed hiking even more. And when you

47
00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,519
Speaker 3: start to hike even more, that's when you have the problems. So,

48
00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:31,240
Speaker 3: you know, so the potential for a soft landing is

49
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,079
Speaker 3: still there. I guess what I'm a little bit still

50
00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,639
Speaker 3: watching and concerned about is that the real FED funds, right,

51
00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,400
Speaker 3: you know, the nominal rate minus some sort of inflation

52
00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,120
Speaker 3: rate continues to drift higher, and that's what matters for

53
00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,480
Speaker 3: the real economy. And so I think the Fed is

54
00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 3: going to delay easing at this point, and so we

55
00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,280
Speaker 3: may or may not have a downturn early next year,

56
00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,600
Speaker 3: but I think the next few quarters because monetary policy

57
00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:59,040
Speaker 3: is going to remain restrictive. I think you're looking at

58
00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:00,800
Speaker 3: headwinds on xanomic growth.

59
00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:05,080
Speaker 1: Is it mission accomplished? There's a comedy to that, a

60
00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:09,959
Speaker 1: painful comedy for our geopolitics, our history, Doctor Bryson. What

61
00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,440
Speaker 1: are we getting to a transitory point where this Federal

62
00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,080
Speaker 1: Reserve can say mission accomplished?

63
00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:19,240
Speaker 3: Well, again, Tom, I don't think they're going to come

64
00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,799
Speaker 3: out and say that right at this point. But you

65
00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,400
Speaker 3: know what I would say is the bar for further

66
00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,560
Speaker 3: rate hikes is getting higher and higher at this point.

67
00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,120
Speaker 3: Many of the members on the FOMC think they have

68
00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,680
Speaker 3: done enough at this point, and you know, today's rally

69
00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,880
Speaker 3: and the tenure notwithstanding, you know, we still have seen

70
00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,600
Speaker 3: you know, relatively high long term rates and so there's

71
00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:43,720
Speaker 3: a fair amount of headwinds on the economy right now. Again,

72
00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:45,840
Speaker 3: they're not going to come out and say mission accomplished

73
00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,640
Speaker 3: right now. They need to see a few more months

74
00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:50,920
Speaker 3: of this before I think they feel confident in that

75
00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,960
Speaker 3: this is certainly a good start in that journey. But

76
00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:56,520
Speaker 3: I still think, you see, you need to see a

77
00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:00,720
Speaker 3: few more months of point two's before they say accomplished.

78
00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:05,040
Speaker 1: Lisa, the mission accomplished December twelfth a CPI report before

79
00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,240
Speaker 1: a December thirteenth FED.

80
00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,840
Speaker 2: Meeting, and or just to really echo what Jay was

81
00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,360
Speaker 2: talking about that the bar is getting higher and higher

82
00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,000
Speaker 2: for them to go again, evidently the bar is getting

83
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,480
Speaker 2: a bit lower for them to cut rates. FED dated

84
00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,880
Speaker 2: swaps are now pricing in the first twenty five basis

85
00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:24,520
Speaker 2: point cut for June versus July. Before we got this print, Jay,

86
00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,719
Speaker 2: there is this issue of what we're going back to.

87
00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,680
Speaker 2: Are we seeing a fast enough pace of disinflation to

88
00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 2: believe that two percent is very much in the horizon.

89
00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,680
Speaker 2: You and your team have been excellent about the last

90
00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,640
Speaker 2: mile of getting inflation down from three percent to two percent?

91
00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:41,920
Speaker 2: How far along that process are we?

92
00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,320
Speaker 3: So, you know, I don't have the numbers here in

93
00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:46,880
Speaker 3: front of me, Lisa, but you know, I think if

94
00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:49,960
Speaker 3: you look at the three month annualized change in the core,

95
00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,880
Speaker 3: we're probably at three and a half percent right now.

96
00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:55,000
Speaker 3: So if you want to get back down to two,

97
00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,520
Speaker 3: I mean, what you need is you need a few

98
00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:01,520
Speaker 3: months of point twos and even point one to kind

99
00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,200
Speaker 3: of get you there. And I'd think we're still looking

100
00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,760
Speaker 3: at a number of months for that. We don't think

101
00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,000
Speaker 3: we're going to be looking at that sort of number

102
00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,240
Speaker 3: until the second half of twenty twenty four. But I

103
00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,440
Speaker 3: don't know if you necessarily need to be two percent

104
00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,600
Speaker 3: annualized for a few months before the FED cuts. I mean,

105
00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:20,880
Speaker 3: they're going to be looking forward, right and if they

106
00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,640
Speaker 3: are confident that things are really going to slow down,

107
00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,800
Speaker 3: then they could start to cut rates, you know, maybe

108
00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:28,760
Speaker 3: summer or so of next year.

109
00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,599
Speaker 1: Doctor Bryson, thank you so much. The chief economist of

110
00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:39,560
Speaker 1: Will's Frogo Ja Brison, David Kelly, will adjust. He's chief

111
00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:43,200
Speaker 1: Global Strategists at JP Morgan Asset Management. With his years

112
00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,239
Speaker 1: at Putnam knows when the facts change, he will change.

113
00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:50,400
Speaker 1: David Kelly, how does your analysis change with this shock report?

114
00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, so this this report is actually very close to

115
00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:59,320
Speaker 4: who we're looking for here. As we're tracing as inflation,

116
00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,440
Speaker 4: we can see right down to below two percent on

117
00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:04,800
Speaker 4: the consumption deflator by the fourth court of next year.

118
00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,160
Speaker 4: I think what's really important about this report is there's

119
00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,040
Speaker 4: a large camp of people who say that the last

120
00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,479
Speaker 4: mile is sticky, getting from three to two is sticky,

121
00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,760
Speaker 4: and we don't see that at all. We're going to

122
00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:17,640
Speaker 4: step down inflation all the way through the fourth court

123
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:19,440
Speaker 4: of next year. And what I think this report is

124
00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:22,400
Speaker 4: showing is across the board, there's disinflation in the US

125
00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,599
Speaker 4: economy and we're heading back to two percent. So I

126
00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,760
Speaker 4: think that is gradually changing in the minds of the markets.

127
00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:29,040
Speaker 4: I think that's why you've seen this move.

128
00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,320
Speaker 2: Here, although it's not necessarily coming with paying David, and

129
00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,560
Speaker 2: this goes to the soft landing Nirvana that Neil Dotta

130
00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,800
Speaker 2: was talking about, that real average hourly earnings increased by

131
00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,760
Speaker 2: zero point eight percent, up from zero point five percent.

132
00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,479
Speaker 2: People's earnings are exceeding at the pace of inflation and

133
00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,919
Speaker 2: in a material way for the first time in a

134
00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,640
Speaker 2: long time. How much does that lead to a stickiness

135
00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,400
Speaker 2: because people have the means to keep paying the prices.

136
00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,840
Speaker 4: I don't think so, because I mean, we've had periods

137
00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,320
Speaker 4: of positive real wage growth before. But what I'm saying

138
00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,279
Speaker 4: looking at the earnings reports from the last quarter is

139
00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:07,000
Speaker 4: companies are very focused on holding earnings in check. Now, yes,

140
00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:09,400
Speaker 4: you can say that today's earnings are higher than inflation,

141
00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,200
Speaker 4: but from a worker's perspective, they're not even getting catch

142
00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,120
Speaker 4: up from all the inflation they saw over the last

143
00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:18,600
Speaker 4: two years. So what you're seeing is partial compensation for

144
00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,360
Speaker 4: previous inflation. But I don't see a lot of evidence

145
00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,760
Speaker 4: that companies are being able to push higher prices the

146
00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:28,560
Speaker 4: workers being able to push higher wages. So overall, I

147
00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:30,600
Speaker 4: think what we're seeing we're not seeing a price wage spiral.

148
00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,600
Speaker 4: We're seeing a price wage slinky. They're both gradually coming

149
00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:35,640
Speaker 4: down the stairs slowly. I think this is just going

150
00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:37,400
Speaker 4: to continue all the wage two percent.

151
00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,360
Speaker 2: And there's a question mark around Yes, this is definitely

152
00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,360
Speaker 2: good for bonds and you're seeing that rally in a

153
00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:46,480
Speaker 2: massive way today. Is this necessarily good for stocks over

154
00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:49,760
Speaker 2: the longer term if it is accompanied with a cooling

155
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:50,760
Speaker 2: in the economy.

156
00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:53,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it is. Now. There are things that

157
00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:55,960
Speaker 4: could go wrong, and there's certainly parts of the stock

158
00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,120
Speaker 4: market that are overpriced, but I think what's happening is

159
00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,440
Speaker 4: work turning to where we were ten years ago. We're

160
00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:06,240
Speaker 4: turning to an economy with two percent inflation, very slow growth.

161
00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,080
Speaker 4: That low inflation can allow for lower long term interest rates,

162
00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:13,120
Speaker 4: which supports all asci prises, bonds and stocks alike. And

163
00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:16,600
Speaker 4: of course stocks are the ultimate long duration asset, so

164
00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,960
Speaker 4: they will benefit from this lower rate environment. So, you know,

165
00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:23,480
Speaker 4: soft landings never last forever. They'll eventually the rote and

166
00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,160
Speaker 4: we'll fall into recession. But for right now, this does

167
00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,520
Speaker 4: really show that inflation is steadily coming down, and we've

168
00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,680
Speaker 4: just got to we've got to recognize that's going on.

169
00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,559
Speaker 4: Regardless of Fed officials who occasionally say that we're not

170
00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,440
Speaker 4: there yet or tour into declare victory. Look, I'm willing

171
00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,959
Speaker 4: to say we're going to win this thing. It looks

172
00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,600
Speaker 4: very very likely they're going to win this. In Invation

173
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:44,640
Speaker 4: down to two percent by the end of next.

174
00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:48,720
Speaker 1: Year, Small Stacks Russell up four percent, NASDAK up one

175
00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,439
Speaker 1: point eight percent, though Nasdaq one hundred, I should say

176
00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,559
Speaker 1: Dow lags up one point one percent, Standard Impores five hundred,

177
00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:00,640
Speaker 1: up fifty, up fifty five, up sixty, and now up

178
00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:04,360
Speaker 1: sixty three points one point five percent. Doctor Kelly, I

179
00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,120
Speaker 1: want to sum this up to the angst that Lisa

180
00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:11,840
Speaker 1: Brambo Bramo Wit says on our nation's debt. If we

181
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:16,199
Speaker 1: get inflation down, if we have a successful FED, does

182
00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,640
Speaker 1: that give you confidence that we can have in long

183
00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:27,040
Speaker 1: term our minus G relationship, our minus G equation, that

184
00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,600
Speaker 1: will mean our debt and deficit is of less fear.

185
00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,440
Speaker 4: A little bit. I mean, it's still what you're basically

186
00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:39,280
Speaker 4: saying is we can service this debt at cheaper prices

187
00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,920
Speaker 4: no matter how large it is. Yes, we can to

188
00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:43,920
Speaker 4: an extent, But I think the amount of debt we've

189
00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,240
Speaker 4: piled up in recent years is going to mean permanently

190
00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,200
Speaker 4: higher loge of interest rates experienced ten years ago, so

191
00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,400
Speaker 4: that that problem is going to be around for a

192
00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:55,120
Speaker 4: while unfortunately, I see no evidence that there's any consensus

193
00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,560
Speaker 4: in Washington about doing anything about it about it, so

194
00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,800
Speaker 4: I'm still worried about poppulism. Left of the right just

195
00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,000
Speaker 4: pushing these depths its higher and higher in the years ahead.

196
00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,960
Speaker 1: Doctor Kelly, thank us so much, David Kelly, JP Morgan

197
00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:21,000
Speaker 1: joining US unapplied mathematics of big box retail. Elizabeth Suzuki

198
00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,160
Speaker 1: joins US at Bank of America Securities. When you were

199
00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:28,040
Speaker 1: going through polynomials and you know, doing ferrisproof and all

200
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,200
Speaker 1: that and applied manth, you think you'd be an aisle

201
00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:31,840
Speaker 1: four at home depot.

202
00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:35,199
Speaker 5: I did not. I never thought that my work was

203
00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,240
Speaker 5: going to include channel check at stores that I just

204
00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:40,480
Speaker 5: go to anyway. In fact, now you know, as a

205
00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,280
Speaker 5: homeowner for the last you know, six years, I'm in

206
00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:46,520
Speaker 5: home depot pretty much every weekend, maybe every other weekend.

207
00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:48,439
Speaker 5: But I mean it just never stopped.

208
00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,120
Speaker 1: Wonderful. I've never been to the one downstairs Ferrell's down

209
00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,480
Speaker 1: there once a week picking up something. Let me cut

210
00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,360
Speaker 1: to the chase, which is the new post pandemic home

211
00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:00,679
Speaker 1: depot world and for other big box as well. Can

212
00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:03,840
Speaker 1: they fix the problem on the income statement? Can they

213
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,280
Speaker 1: take out expenses like Disney or you name the bank.

214
00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,360
Speaker 5: Sure, you know, I wouldn't really categorize it as a

215
00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:12,840
Speaker 5: problem on the income statement. When we think about what

216
00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,800
Speaker 5: Home Depot is going to do this year in terms

217
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,679
Speaker 5: of sales, they're probably going to end up about fifty

218
00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,760
Speaker 5: percent higher than they were in twenty nineteen. And just

219
00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:23,440
Speaker 5: putting that in context of the broader industry, which is

220
00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,680
Speaker 5: tracking up about like twenty percent versus twenty nineteen levels,

221
00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 5: that's an amazing amount of market share that Home Depot

222
00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,000
Speaker 5: has been able to take. I mean, we're coming down

223
00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,640
Speaker 5: off of these very very high levels of spend. During

224
00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:37,760
Speaker 5: the pandemic. Homeowners had you know, easy rates to be

225
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,800
Speaker 5: able to borrow against. They also had you know, stimulus

226
00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,320
Speaker 5: money to spend. They were moving at much higher frequency.

227
00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,200
Speaker 5: A lot of people moved out to the suburbs during

228
00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:48,280
Speaker 5: the pandemic. I mean, we've seen a slowdown in that,

229
00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,280
Speaker 5: and you know, I think what's been surprising this year

230
00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,160
Speaker 5: to the downside and just where we've seen that pressure

231
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:57,200
Speaker 5: on the top line is really mostly from housing turnover

232
00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,480
Speaker 5: basically coming to a standstill, you know, so as as

233
00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,720
Speaker 5: we expect. Yeah, so I think, you know, as as

234
00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:06,960
Speaker 5: rates start to moderate or potentially even come down, maybe

235
00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,400
Speaker 5: towards the second half of next year, I think that's

236
00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:11,880
Speaker 5: going to help spur that housing turnover again and we're

237
00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,280
Speaker 5: going to see more of a return to normalization in

238
00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:16,240
Speaker 5: terms of that top line salesca.

239
00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,160
Speaker 6: Given what mortgage rates are, do you really think we

240
00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:20,680
Speaker 6: can normalize the fact that some people just locked in

241
00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:22,600
Speaker 6: their homes with the two three percent mortgage you just

242
00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:24,360
Speaker 6: aren't moving anytime soon.

243
00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:25,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know.

244
00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,960
Speaker 5: I think it's like once rates really stabilize, maybe come

245
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,560
Speaker 5: down a tick, you know, a couple of rate cuts,

246
00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:33,880
Speaker 5: potentially in the second half of next year, then you

247
00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,280
Speaker 5: know the homeowner is saying, okay, like rates are probably

248
00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,520
Speaker 5: not continuing to go up, I can potentially refinance. If

249
00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,240
Speaker 5: I were to move today, I'm locking in a rate

250
00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:44,240
Speaker 5: that's higher than what I wanted. But I feel like

251
00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,680
Speaker 5: there's some potential for that to come down over time,

252
00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:48,760
Speaker 5: and maybe it means that people buy a house that's

253
00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:50,560
Speaker 5: a little bit smaller than what they wanted, or it

254
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,120
Speaker 5: means that you know, some people who are moving and

255
00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:55,480
Speaker 5: you know, are going to have to absorb a higher rate.

256
00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:59,400
Speaker 5: But because households have such high levels of savings they

257
00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,079
Speaker 5: actually can absorb that. It's just it is uncomfortable, right

258
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,760
Speaker 5: So right now we're feeling that discomfort in terms of

259
00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,560
Speaker 5: existing home sales, which are the lowest they've been in

260
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:08,440
Speaker 5: thirteen years.

261
00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:11,960
Speaker 2: How much does home tapot rely on the housing market

262
00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:15,000
Speaker 2: versus the fact that people aren't moving they are buying

263
00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,360
Speaker 2: new refrigerators I'm just saying, or they're buying new stoves

264
00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:19,160
Speaker 2: or new microwaves or other items in the house that

265
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,200
Speaker 2: might break. I mean at a certain point, does that

266
00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,079
Speaker 2: actually help these companies?

267
00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the sector is not as sensitive to

268
00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,559
Speaker 5: housing turnover as one might think. I mean, when you're

269
00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,760
Speaker 5: seeing these negative data points on housing every day, and

270
00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,120
Speaker 5: if you already have sort of a negative bias, each

271
00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:36,240
Speaker 5: one of those data points just kind of confirms your

272
00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:37,960
Speaker 5: bias and you're going to say, of course, things are

273
00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,360
Speaker 5: terrible right now. So what we've done is we tried

274
00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:43,200
Speaker 5: to look at basically every macro factor you possibly could.

275
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:44,040
Speaker 1: And this is really.

276
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:48,000
Speaker 5: Where that applied mathematics comes into play. As we built

277
00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:52,440
Speaker 5: a proprietary indicator of home improvement demand and we narrowed

278
00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,760
Speaker 5: it down to fourteen different factors that are reported monthly

279
00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:59,120
Speaker 5: that we can correlate to Home Depot and Low same.

280
00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:00,839
Speaker 2: Store sales growth. At the end of the day, that's

281
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,600
Speaker 2: pretty much what drives these stocks is same store sales growth.

282
00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,400
Speaker 2: So we narrowed it down to these fourteen factors, we

283
00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,920
Speaker 2: built an indicator off of it, and then that indicator

284
00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,120
Speaker 2: helps inform our views where we don't have to be

285
00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,400
Speaker 2: dependent on the company's guidance, we don't have to be

286
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,720
Speaker 2: dependent on third party forecasts. Like we're able to actually

287
00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:18,880
Speaker 2: look at the factors that matter, and then months to

288
00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:20,880
Speaker 2: month we can track each of those factors and not

289
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,640
Speaker 2: get distracted by the noise that we hear in a

290
00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,800
Speaker 2: lot of these other data correlated as Home Depot to

291
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,160
Speaker 2: some of the other retailers that are not related to

292
00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:30,800
Speaker 2: the housing or home improvement sector.

293
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, that's that's a really interesting question. And

294
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:34,800
Speaker 5: I think, you know, when we boil it down and

295
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,400
Speaker 5: look to look at the broader sector and look at

296
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,880
Speaker 5: Bank of America's credit card data for the home improvement retailers,

297
00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 5: which is you know, just very broad category, Home Depot

298
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:49,600
Speaker 5: has outperformed that group pretty consistently, like actually very consistently

299
00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:51,760
Speaker 5: over time, and Low's has as well. By at least

300
00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,160
Speaker 5: two hundred basis points. So you know, the market share

301
00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,680
Speaker 5: gains here are pretty material, and that's something that I

302
00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:58,760
Speaker 5: want to just continue to kind of hone in on.

303
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:00,840
Speaker 5: In this result is even though their sales are down

304
00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,640
Speaker 5: three percent, we've seen the category down you know, mid

305
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:05,920
Speaker 5: to high single digits year over year for most of

306
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,200
Speaker 5: this year. But in terms of correlation to you know,

307
00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:11,840
Speaker 5: to other retailers, it's it's pretty independent. I mean, it's

308
00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,520
Speaker 5: it's some factor of the broader consumer and the health there,

309
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 5: and so obviously there's correlation to like a Walmart and

310
00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,800
Speaker 5: a Target. But because it is related to housing and

311
00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,480
Speaker 5: really home prices are one of the most important factors

312
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,600
Speaker 5: driving home improvement demand, that's really where it kind of differentiates.

313
00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:28,680
Speaker 6: We've all been surprised by the strength that is economy

314
00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:30,520
Speaker 6: this year. There's a bunch of companies that fall under

315
00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,560
Speaker 6: your coverage. We're trying to work out whether we are

316
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,120
Speaker 6: at the precipice just around a corner from a severe

317
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,840
Speaker 6: weakning of the economy. Do you see any of that

318
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:38,760
Speaker 6: emerging whatsoever going into year end?

319
00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I think that there are categories that

320
00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,000
Speaker 5: we follow that are struggling more than others. You know, appliances,

321
00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,720
Speaker 5: We talked about refrigerators. I mean, appliance sales are down.

322
00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:49,440
Speaker 5: You know, the volumes have been under pressure. Margins are

323
00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:52,440
Speaker 5: coming under pressure as well. We saw promotions that started

324
00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,480
Speaker 5: in October for appliances. So if you're you should get

325
00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 5: on it, if you're you're in the market for a fridge,

326
00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:59,680
Speaker 5: because I think those promotions are going to be, you know,

327
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:01,760
Speaker 5: pretty pretty attractive this year.

328
00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:02,600
Speaker 6: With the cameras.

329
00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:04,280
Speaker 1: Some impressed.

330
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:06,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, I just kind ofd.

331
00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,000
Speaker 4: You get no, I just want to hear what you

332
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:08,400
Speaker 4: have to say.

333
00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:09,920
Speaker 2: Carry on.

334
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,600
Speaker 5: But you know, consumer electronics is another one, right, I mean,

335
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:14,960
Speaker 5: as as Home Depot said in their press release or

336
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,920
Speaker 5: seeing pressure on big ticket consumer discretionary product. So consumer

337
00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,400
Speaker 5: electronics definitely one of those. Appliance is kind of fit

338
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:22,160
Speaker 5: in that bucket.

339
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,440
Speaker 1: From New York University just emailed in. So you're sitting

340
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,760
Speaker 1: here with Ken Langohn, He's gonna go. This is all

341
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,280
Speaker 1: a lot of great chat. But the bottom line after

342
00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 1: a three years pandemic and lays let's call it is,

343
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 1: can they get back on track to the total return

344
00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 1: that we were weaned on? Can they get back to

345
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:43,320
Speaker 1: sixteen eighteen to twenty percent per year share return.

346
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,320
Speaker 5: Yes, I think, you know, in this current macro environment,

347
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:48,880
Speaker 5: that's tough, you know, because the consumer is pulling back

348
00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,240
Speaker 5: on spending and we are coming off of this you know,

349
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 5: sugar high from the last couple of years. But you know,

350
00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:56,640
Speaker 5: we as we look to twenty twenty four and twenty

351
00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,880
Speaker 5: twenty five, we see no reason why there shouldn't still

352
00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:03,240
Speaker 5: be growth in the home improvement sector beyond the broader

353
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:04,320
Speaker 5: economy list.

354
00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:06,280
Speaker 6: This was great, Thank yous. Going to see in person

355
00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:12,280
Speaker 6: as well. Greg Fadia joint is right now, the chief

356
00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:16,080
Speaker 6: US policy strategistic AHF Investments, Greg, in your mind, from

357
00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,639
Speaker 6: your perspective, in your opinion, do you think this pass

358
00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:21,280
Speaker 6: can pass, can get through Congress this week?

359
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,640
Speaker 7: I think they can. It's been so humiliating for them

360
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,200
Speaker 7: for the last few weeks. I think they know they've

361
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 7: got to do something. The credit rating downgrade is serious.

362
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,680
Speaker 7: So yeah, I'm at sixty forty one minutes possible that

363
00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:41,160
Speaker 7: a handful, once again, a handful of far right radical

364
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,960
Speaker 7: Republicans could kill this, but I think they.

365
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,280
Speaker 8: Want to give at least on this first bill. They

366
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 8: want to give Mike Johnson a victory.

367
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:49,919
Speaker 6: This is what I was going to ask Greg, who

368
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,280
Speaker 6: does this particular offer upset more? Is it Republicans within

369
00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:54,920
Speaker 6: his own party or elsewhere?

370
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,119
Speaker 7: What's a good point, John, There's so much in the

371
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:03,119
Speaker 7: bill to hate. For the Conservative Republicans, there are no

372
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,919
Speaker 7: spending cuts and they're quite upset over that. For the

373
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,640
Speaker 7: White House and the Democrats, the fact that there's nothing

374
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,720
Speaker 7: for Israel or Ukraine is very troubling. And we can say, oh,

375
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:17,480
Speaker 7: we'll get them some money in February. Well, they need

376
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 7: money now, and I think to not send our allies

377
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,359
Speaker 7: this money sends a very bad signal.

378
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 1: Greg. It's that time of year. Our Greg Durou owns

379
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 1: a high ground and keeping track of who's leaving, who's coming,

380
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:31,000
Speaker 1: who's going in the House, in the Senate. Juan Williams

381
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 1: in the Hill today or yesterday, I should say, really

382
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 1: writes it up of the Republicans leaving the House. I

383
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:43,919
Speaker 1: think this is underreported. You've got Buck, You've got Granger,

384
00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 1: You've got LESCo, You've got Sparks, on and on. Is

385
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 1: this going to be even a more Trump Republican party?

386
00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:54,120
Speaker 1: Not in a year, but in a matter of weeks.

387
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 8: It could be.

388
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 7: Yes, and a lot of the names you mentioned are

389
00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 7: people who are disgusted.

390
00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 8: They can't take it anymore.

391
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 7: I also think there's a growing chance, a very good chance,

392
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 7: that the next Senate will elect a year from now,

393
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,600
Speaker 7: will be controlled by the Republicans.

394
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 8: They have, I think, an easy chance to take the Senate.

395
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,320
Speaker 1: Now, I look at this as wildly underport. You know,

396
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 1: we'll focus on mansion and that in Spenberg or Virginia.

397
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 1: Have you seen it like this before? Is this normal

398
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,879
Speaker 1: changing of the chairs to musical chairs or is there

399
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,920
Speaker 1: something unique here? Well?

400
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 7: I tell you, Tom, I think what is unusual is

401
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 7: to have Democrats talking now openly about a need to

402
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:36,960
Speaker 7: get a different nominee.

403
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 8: That's really unprecedented.

404
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:42,400
Speaker 7: You probably have to go back to LBJ who lost

405
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:46,640
Speaker 7: support in his own party. That makes the Democrats nervous,

406
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:50,640
Speaker 7: the fact that they could lose the Senate and lose

407
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 7: it convincingly.

408
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 2: We'll get back to that in one second, because I

409
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:54,879
Speaker 2: do want to get your view on that. But just

410
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 2: to build on what you're talking about, the fact that

411
00:19:56,840 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 2: Democrats are joining with Republicans, some of them, to back

412
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson's plan. Isn't this what got Kevin McCarthy ousted

413
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 2: his House speakers.

414
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 7: Bingo, that's right, And I got to think that we

415
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 7: could have a repeat. You only need like three or

416
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 7: four at the most five no votes and this whole

417
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,440
Speaker 7: thing could fall apart. So I think that Johnson has

418
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 7: to worry that he could suffer the exact same fate

419
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 7: as Kevin McCarthy.

420
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,120
Speaker 2: And there's still are nine, at least nine ultra conservatives

421
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:29,840
Speaker 2: in his party who are going to vote against this,

422
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 2: at least as for now. What's worse though? On an

423
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,560
Speaker 2: international stage, you were talking about no funding for Ukraine

424
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 2: and Israel. Is that worse than a government shutdown in

425
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:38,960
Speaker 2: the US.

426
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:44,199
Speaker 7: I think a government shutdown has become so ordinary. A

427
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,719
Speaker 7: brief shutdown wouldn't be as serious as sending a signal

428
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:51,520
Speaker 7: to our allies that we can't support them. I mean, this,

429
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 7: I think is really very, very unnerving. And one other

430
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 7: point I'd make quickly. I do think the final outcome

431
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 7: is Johnson having to kind of deal with Democrats.

432
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:01,920
Speaker 8: I think that's the.

433
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 7: Only way we're going to get a deal in the

434
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,880
Speaker 7: next week or two is to have the two parties

435
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 7: unite on this.

436
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 1: What will be the ramifications of that. I call that

437
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 1: doing a John Bayner for an international audience. We've seen

438
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 1: this before. But then what is the outcome if he

439
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 1: does that?

440
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 7: The outcome is going to be an effort to Ouston.

441
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 7: I still think it's less than fifty to fifty. I

442
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 7: think they want to give him a victory. Tom, but

443
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 7: you could see a lot of Republicans say this is

444
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 7: totally unacceptable.

445
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,880
Speaker 6: Great, let's talk about the race for the presidency next year.

446
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 6: The field is narrowing on the Republican sign and it

447
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:40,919
Speaker 6: looks like Nicki Hade starts to attract some money. What

448
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:42,200
Speaker 6: do you make of the moves we've seen in the

449
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:43,120
Speaker 6: past week, Greg.

450
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 8: Well, Tim Scott didn't surprise me in the least.

451
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 7: I think that they're the strongest other than Trump, of course,

452
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 7: has been Nicki Haley over the last few weeks.

453
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 8: She's got real momentum. DeSantis does not.

454
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 7: He didn't even mention his endorsement in Iowa from the

455
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:01,439
Speaker 7: govern I can't figure it out.

456
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 6: That was so Weirch can't just jump in, What was

457
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 6: that about? Why didn't that come up in the debate.

458
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 8: I don't get it.

459
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,760
Speaker 7: She endorsed him, I'd be bragging about it, but he

460
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:13,360
Speaker 7: didn't even bring it up in the debate. That was mystifying,

461
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 7: but it's still trunks to lose. Trump has said some

462
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 7: extraordinary things in the last few days about how his

463
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 7: opponents are vermin using, really even by his standards, exceptionally

464
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 7: harsh language, but his numbers hold up. He still has

465
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 7: the base.

466
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 6: And that means we need to narrow the field potentially

467
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 6: even more for the Republicans. Who's next to drop out?

468
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 7: Greig maybe Ramaswami. He's got money, but I could see

469
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 7: him drop out. He's got no traction. His numbers don't

470
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 7: look good. I think DeSantis and Nicky Haley stay in,

471
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 7: and probably Chris Christy stays in, and that's good theater.

472
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 2: Well, at this point, maybe the field is narrowing on

473
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 2: the Republican side, but in some ways it's actually widening

474
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 2: on the Democratic side. You said that there's real fear

475
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 2: and there are real calls within the Democratic Party to

476
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 2: have some other options than President Biden. How realistic is that?

477
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 2: Who is everyone coalescing around?

478
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 7: Well, that's the problem, nobody. And I think one of

479
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 7: the strongest things that Biden has is the lack of

480
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 7: any clear successor, and I think because of that, he

481
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 7: will be the nominee. Apparently In the last twenty four hours,

482
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:23,640
Speaker 7: he's been very angry, profane, criticizing people like David Axelrod.

483
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 7: I think he feels that he should be the nominee.

484
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 7: I think he will be the nominee.

485
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 6: What do you think he's so upset about, Greg.

486
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 7: Oh mocking him for his age. Probably more than anything else.

487
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 7: You can't do much. Can't do much about that.

488
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 6: That's true, Greg Valier of Jeff Investments, that any of

489
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 6: us can do anything about that. Greg, appreciate you up desa.

490
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and

491
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday

492
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern, on Bloomberg dot com, the

493
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, in in the Bloomberg Business app. You can

494
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the

495
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this

496
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg