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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What we have crystal, indeed we do tomorrow. You might

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Speaker 1: be aware the big day midterm election, and so we

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Speaker 1: have every indicator that we could find about how this

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Speaker 1: thing might go. We've got the ones that are good

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Speaker 1: for the Republicans. We've got a few stragglers that are

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Speaker 1: still good for the Democrats. We're going to go through

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Speaker 1: all of them and then you can make of it

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Speaker 1: what you will. We also have some footage from on

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Speaker 1: the ground at those rallies our front. Jordan Sheridan over

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Speaker 1: at Status kup gathered some footage for us, so we're

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Speaker 1: hearing from regular voters what they think about the race

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania in particular. At the same time, twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four is already kicking off rumors that Trump is set

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Speaker 1: to launch his campaign basically imminently, taking a few shots

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Speaker 1: at Ron de Santis in a preview of potential things

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Speaker 1: to come, So that is very interesting as well. We've

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Speaker 1: got new moves from elon Musk and whatever the hell

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Speaker 1: is going on at Twitter. We also have a report

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Speaker 1: that the Biden administration is actually encouraging Zelenski and Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: to keep the door open to negotiations and diplomacy. This

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Speaker 1: of course comes on the heels of that progressive letter

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Speaker 1: that was retracted and it was a whole thing, so

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Speaker 1: very interesting developments there. We also have some developing liberal

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Speaker 1: cope as the midterm elections seem to be not panning out,

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Speaker 1: so some interesting explanations of exactly what went wrong for them.

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Speaker 1: We are also going to go ahead and do the

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Speaker 1: most foolish thing possible, which is to make our very

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Speaker 1: specific predictions, which I'm sure we'll be completely wrong when

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Speaker 1: we actually get the members, but what the hell, why not.

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Speaker 1: But before we get to any of that, what are

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Speaker 1: we doing tomorrow? Tomorrow? We are planning a live stream

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Speaker 1: starting at seven pm. That's right, go and put it

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Speaker 1: up there on the screen Eastern Standard time. It's great

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Speaker 1: to be back on Standard time seven pm. Well, be

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Speaker 1: here at the desk this We've got Marshall, We've got Kyle,

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Speaker 1: We've got Ryan and Emily will have coverage for several

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Speaker 1: hours to take you all the way into the night

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Speaker 1: and break down everything that's going on. We've got some

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Speaker 1: great guests. We've got people who are live on the

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Speaker 1: scene at OZ and Fetterman HQ. Thank you all so

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Speaker 1: much to our premium describers who are enabling all of

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Speaker 1: that to be possible. It costs a hell of a

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Speaker 1: lot of money in order to put the whole production on,

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Speaker 1: to have people and pay for people you know, at

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Speaker 1: various places, to have a live hook up all of that,

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Speaker 1: so we want to thank you all so so much,

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Speaker 1: and we will have some sort of benefit for you

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Speaker 1: guys tomorrow which we will reveal. So just to give everyone.

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Speaker 1: In terms of scheduling, it will be our show today Tomorrow,

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Speaker 1: we'll have the live stream beginning at seven Wednesday morning.

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Speaker 1: We will get no sleep and we will be here

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Speaker 1: at the desk in order to break down even more

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Speaker 1: eventsive break overnight like instant reaction of sleep, break, crazes, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, whatever we possibly can for you. Then Thursday

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Speaker 1: and Friday we'll have two special editions of counterpoints that

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Speaker 1: Ryan and Emily will be taking over. So everybody's gonna

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Speaker 1: have breaking points or counterpoints every single day of the week.

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Speaker 1: You're all very very welcome. Make sure you get your fix.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be a fun time. What can we say. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're kicking off. It's gonna be big, much much anticipated,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of genuine suspense over exactly how this

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Speaker 1: thing is going to break down. I feel like there's

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Speaker 1: a lot less certainty than there were in other election

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Speaker 1: cycles where it was just like really clear that there

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Speaker 1: was a wave. There might be a wave. But it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit less certain. So anyway, who hangs on

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Speaker 1: who you know comes down of nowhere and wins that

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Speaker 1: you didn't expect. It's always interesting. So again, starting at

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Speaker 1: seven pm, livestream on the YouTube channel. The whole breaking

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Speaker 1: counter Realignment Points and friends extended family will be here.

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Speaker 1: We'll go late into the night and tomorrow morning Tuesday morning,

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Speaker 1: though we're not doing the morning show. Instead, we're doing

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Speaker 1: the evening show, and then we'll have show for you Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: Counterpoints Thursday, Friday. So that is basically the plan. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a fun time everybody. All right, let's go

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Speaker 1: ahead and get started on the midterms. Let's throw our

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Speaker 1: beautiful midterm graphic up there. It's been a while since

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Speaker 1: we've seen it the road to nowhere. So what we

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Speaker 1: thought is that we would give the two cases here,

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Speaker 1: which is that opening case is the case for a

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Speaker 1: red wave. You know, we've gone over polling, we've gone

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Speaker 1: over corrections, we've gone over what the last poll said.

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Speaker 1: Is it going to turn out? Here is our best

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Speaker 1: case for the GOP. Let's go to put this up

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Speaker 1: there on the screen. The very final poll by Emerson College, Arizona.

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Speaker 1: They have Blake Masters for the first time, rising up

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Speaker 1: against Mark Kelly forty eight percent to Mark Kelly's forty

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Speaker 1: seven point seven percent. That is still razor tight and

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Speaker 1: obviously within the margin, but if you assume you know,

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Speaker 1: some sort of red wave scenario, not difficult to see

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Speaker 1: masters winning by one or two points. Pennsylvania, a doctor

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Speaker 1: Oz maintaining the one point lead that he generally has

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Speaker 1: had in the latest polling averages there in the state

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Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania. Oz at forty eight, Fetterman at forty seven. Nevada,

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Speaker 1: this one is actually a little bit more interesting, given

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about later in the show. They

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Speaker 1: have Adam Laxalt at fifty one percent and Catherine Cortez

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Speaker 1: Masto at forty six percent. And then finally Wisconsin. This

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Speaker 1: one's actually a little bit more before gone conclusion though

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Speaker 1: they have Ron Johnson at fifty one percent and Mendela

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Speaker 1: Barnes at forty six percent. Let's go ahe and throw

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Speaker 1: the next one up there on the screen, which is

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Speaker 1: that five thirty eight polling average continues to drift very

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Speaker 1: much in the direction of Democrats. We should all remember

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Speaker 1: what was it of the Republicans at one point, Chrystal,

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Speaker 1: what was it like, seventy five, twenty five, seventy I

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Speaker 1: think seventy one or seventy two was as high as

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Speaker 1: Democrats went, But it was like a near you know,

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Speaker 1: that's getting pretty close to the quarters of them, right, yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: And so now we are at what fifty four to

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Speaker 1: forty CI, so over fifty percent chance in the fire

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Speaker 1: thirty eight. You got to be unhappy if you're Democrats

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Speaker 1: with the trend, yes, because yeah, what you want to

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Speaker 1: see in the final days is things moving your way,

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Speaker 1: not just sort of steadily consistently drifting towards Europe. And

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Speaker 1: I think it's actually what you see. I think it's

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Speaker 1: worth going down, you know, kind of race by race.

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Speaker 1: The reason why that they have it that way is

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Speaker 1: because they have Walker and Warnock actually more trending in

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Speaker 1: the GOP favor than Pennsylvania does. So they have it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they have a fifty seven out of one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: chance that Walker is going to win in Georgia. But

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Speaker 1: they have Fetterman up very slightly at fifty four to

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Speaker 1: one hundred. However, Adam Laxalt, they have at a fifty

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Speaker 1: seven percent chance of winning. Mark Kelly, they have it

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Speaker 1: at sixty five. Maggie Hassen. Right now they have at

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Speaker 1: seventy three. But we need to specially highlight that race

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Speaker 1: just because things have things have shifted so far in

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Speaker 1: Brian Bouldock's direction in the last couple of days that

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Speaker 1: it really is. And also they have no early voting

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Speaker 1: in the state of New Hampshire. It's one of those

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I didn't either, and so it's one of

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Speaker 1: the you know, truly on the day of will determine

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Speaker 1: what it is. And that's actually genuinely to the Republicans' benefits.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the latest polls there even have either

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Speaker 1: have it dead even Brian Buldock up one or Maggie

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Speaker 1: Hassen up by two. So to have it very very

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Speaker 1: tight in the latest days there makes it so that

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Speaker 1: that could be a real surprise on election night. I mean,

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Speaker 1: obviously there's some other crazy scenarios and like a total

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Speaker 1: total red wave you could consider. I mean, they say Colorado,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think it's gonna happen personally, but I

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Speaker 1: think we are if there is the red wave, I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I'm curious what you think. I think fifty

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Speaker 1: three seats would be quote unquote red wave. I agree, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean pick up for republic basically they win all

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Speaker 1: the jump bars right effectively, would be for them to

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Speaker 1: get to fifty three and I mean So the latest

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Speaker 1: pulls out of New Hampshire, just to underscore that, the

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Speaker 1: most recent one was American greatness in cider advantage, which

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Speaker 1: ins a cider advantage. I don't know is that a

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Speaker 1: Republican leaning Polster American greatness is. So they have Hassen

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Speaker 1: up one. University of New Hampshire Hasson up too. Daily

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Speaker 1: Wire Trafalgar was the most recent one that has the

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Speaker 1: Republican bulldock up by just one. So I mean we're

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Speaker 1: talking about either way very very narrow margins in that

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Speaker 1: race at this point. I mean, I think basically the

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Speaker 1: Republican theory of the case is that, and this was

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Speaker 1: laid out in a New York Our article, we can

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Speaker 1: go ahead and get this up on the screen of

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Speaker 1: like what the insiders, the Republican insiders who are at

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Speaker 1: least telling journalists that they expect to blow out and

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Speaker 1: they expect a red wave. The case they're effectively laying

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Speaker 1: out here is like, look, yeah, abortion was really bad

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Speaker 1: for us when it happened, but Democrats went all in

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Speaker 1: on that messaging and they didn't realize that the impact

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Speaker 1: of that would fade over time. So what they say

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Speaker 1: here is basically like we didn't figure out a way

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Speaker 1: to neutralize that issue. We just waited it out. And

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Speaker 1: so as that has faded, ins and Republicans have come

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Speaker 1: on strong with you know, crime ads and especially hitting

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Speaker 1: you know, on the economy and inflation, and Democrats really

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Speaker 1: didn't respond on those issues much at all. That's why

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Speaker 1: you see this late shift towards the GOP and why

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Speaker 1: Democrats in this scenario are in a lot of trouble.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I thought it was interesting to Sager they

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Speaker 1: were talking about some of the polling because you guys

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Speaker 1: will remember, I mean back when the five thirty eight

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Speaker 1: average had the DEM's chances of taking this sen out

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Speaker 1: like seventy one seventy two percent, that was what Fetterman

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Speaker 1: was up by double digits. I mean, certainly Maggie Hasen

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Speaker 1: was in no danger whatsoever. He had Mark Kelly up

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Speaker 1: by double digits. You had Warnock with it smaller but

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Speaker 1: consistent lead at that point. Well, what they're arguing is

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Speaker 1: actually you had this response bias in the polls at

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Speaker 1: that point because after Roe versus Weight is overturned, you

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Speaker 1: have a lot of liberals who are eagerly answering the

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Speaker 1: phone to respond to these polls, and you had a

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Speaker 1: lot of Republicans who were kind of sitting on their hands,

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Speaker 1: not answering the phone. And so now as you get

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Speaker 1: closer to election day, it's not even so much that

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Speaker 1: the landscape has really shifted, but the polls are reflecting

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Speaker 1: a more accurate sample of who the voters are actually

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Speaker 1: going to be on election days. So they have this,

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Speaker 1: they have this quote here they say, the reason that

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Speaker 1: Democrats have fucked this up is that they won't stop

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Speaker 1: talking about abortion. And the reason they screwed it up

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Speaker 1: with blacks is they won't stop talking about abortion. It's

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Speaker 1: like they're a two issue party. It's this and Trump.

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Speaker 1: They can't stop. I don't think they have anything else.

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Speaker 1: And you know, to me, that's a pretty compelling theory

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Speaker 1: of the case, not an unreasonable summary I think of

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Speaker 1: what's going on here. I mean, I actually, to their credit,

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Speaker 1: you know, there was an insider here that actually just

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Speaker 1: put it very succinctly without any of the general talking points.

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Speaker 1: Inflation is the big federal story. Lots of Blaine belongs

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Speaker 1: to the White House because the White House just wish

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Speaker 1: this would go away. Instead of saying we know it's real,

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Speaker 1: we know it's a problem. It's happening everywhere. We're going

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Speaker 1: to do everything to fix it, but we can't fix

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Speaker 1: it immediately. Not a bad case, right, I mean, that

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Speaker 1: is one of those that I really love seeing because

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Speaker 1: a devoid of the public rhetoric of like, oh it's

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Speaker 1: suspending or whatever, like look, we can have that debate

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Speaker 1: another day. I think that that lands very effectively in

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Speaker 1: the environment where the White House basically saying we live

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Speaker 1: in the greatest economy since World War Two, and most

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Speaker 1: people are like, well, I can't really pay my bills.

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Speaker 1: Whenever you have a story that affects every single person

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Speaker 1: in the United States, that by definition is going to

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Speaker 1: be the most potent one, right, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: in the election. And actually it's really interesting when you

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Speaker 1: look at rankings of what people find important, even on culture.

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Speaker 1: So we were talking about Arizona, Ryeah. Well number one

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Speaker 1: or number two is not abortion, it's crime and immigration.

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Speaker 1: Three is abortion. So that again, this is the difficult thing. Yes,

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Speaker 1: it matters to many people. However, crime and immigration, especially

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Speaker 1: in many of the swing states, are above abortion in

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Speaker 1: the preferences of the general voters, especially of the Independence

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Speaker 1: And then you add inflation on top of that, which

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Speaker 1: is really just the trump card for the Republicans in

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Speaker 1: this election. I thought there was an interesting point here

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Speaker 1: made as well that they basically said Democrats got caught

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Speaker 1: in what they described as an informational doom loop, where

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Speaker 1: in the wake of Row versus Way being a return,

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Speaker 1: they're getting all of these phenomenal poll results. You have

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Speaker 1: those couple of special elections that we covered that it's like,

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Speaker 1: holy shit, this is a bigger issue than we thought.

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Speaker 1: And because of that, they decided we're going whole hog.

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Speaker 1: We're doing nothing but abortion, We're all in on that.

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Speaker 1: And they never adjusted from that as the polls started

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Speaker 1: to move away from them and the salience of that

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Speaker 1: issue and the shock of that initial decision started to

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Speaker 1: wear off over time. So because they'd gotten such a

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Speaker 1: strong response in the early days, they thought, oh, this

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Speaker 1: is this is the way, this is the winner. And

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Speaker 1: you know, in fairness, I think, listen, normally, when you

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Speaker 1: see these kinds of economic numbers, right track, wrong track numbers,

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Speaker 1: low presidential approval rating, forget it. It's a done deal.

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Speaker 1: It's a red wave. It's over. So abortion has kept

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Speaker 1: them somewhat in the game, but They had this theory

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Speaker 1: of like, the issues that we think are bad for us,

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Speaker 1: we're just not going to talk about, and we're going

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Speaker 1: to try to shape the issues that are defining this election.

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Speaker 1: We want the issues to be basically abortion and like extremism,

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Speaker 1: democracy January sixth. That sort of stuff. Well, when you

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Speaker 1: have voters over and over and over and over again

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Speaker 1: saying like, that's nice that those are imported to you,

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Speaker 1: and we're not saying they're not important. But we really

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Speaker 1: care about the economy. This is really important, isn't By

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Speaker 1: the way, we do also care a lot about crime

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Speaker 1: and feeling safe, like in our neighborhoods and our homes.

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Speaker 1: You can't just wish cast your narrative the election onto

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Speaker 1: the electorate. I think they had every opportunity to rebut

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Speaker 1: the Republican talking points on inflation. I think the Biden

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Speaker 1: administration had every opportunity to talk about corporate price gouging

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Speaker 1: and really call executives onto the carpet and really make

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Speaker 1: that a focal point and a centerpiece of the campaign.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, structurally it would still have been difficult for

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Speaker 1: them because they're the party empowered. Things aren't going well,

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Speaker 1: and so people are gonna say you're to blame. But

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Speaker 1: if you could even eat into the Republican margin on

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Speaker 1: the economy and on crime, where you could make a

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Speaker 1: compelling case like, hey, these these people are out like

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Speaker 1: flooding our streets with guns and allowing illegal guns to flow,

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Speaker 1: and that's part of the crime problem. But at least

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Speaker 1: you would have at least you would have something to say. Instead,

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Speaker 1: they do this on these issues. They do this, you know,

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Speaker 1: they do the same thing on CRT, they do the

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Speaker 1: same thing on the fights over transgender issues in public schools.

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Speaker 1: Instead they just want to say like, ah, we're just

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Speaker 1: not going to talk about that and hope that it

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Speaker 1: ultimately goes away. I think the lesson here is that,

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Speaker 1: especially in the current media environment, and especially as effective

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Speaker 1: as Republicans are at focusing these issues and putting them

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Speaker 1: on the table, you can't afford to just completely see

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Speaker 1: the issue to the other side. You have to at

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Speaker 1: least have your own narrative around it, at least be

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Speaker 1: messaging on it, and try to eat into their lead

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Speaker 1: on those issues. Yeah, I think it's possible, although I'm

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Speaker 1: not so sure. I mean to be honest, like, even

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Speaker 1: when they do try and justify their positions. They're frankly

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Speaker 1: even more popular when they don't talk about it, which

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Speaker 1: is generally why they don't. I mean one, well, especially

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Speaker 1: on some of the cultural issues like the crime I

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Speaker 1: mean the guns argument. You made that Eric Adams position

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Speaker 1: in New York. He's got historically low a rating on crime,

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Speaker 1: so it's not like it actually works. Same with it

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Speaker 1: the other cultural issues that you mentioned, Like honestly, when

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Speaker 1: they do admit what they want, like, it just makes

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Speaker 1: it more popular, which is why they generally ignore it.

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Speaker 1: So like I could have framed crime very much as

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Speaker 1: an issue, like the voting public is much more on

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Speaker 1: democrats side on guns, like the Republican position on guns

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Speaker 1: is really extreme, and so at least then you have

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Speaker 1: a competing theory of the case of why crime is

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Speaker 1: high and what Democrats will do to make you feel safer.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think that you can say like, eh,

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Speaker 1: we're just gonna not talk about this and hope people

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Speaker 1: don't notice. Same thing. Inflation is really clear to me,

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Speaker 1: like this is the number one issue. If there is

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Speaker 1: a red wave, it's because of the economy bottom line.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think that was really clear. I think

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Speaker 1: that was the case with Glenn Youngkin, even though there

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Speaker 1: were also cultural issues that were relevant, very motivating to

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Speaker 1: the base there as well. You can't just hope that

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Speaker 1: people aren't going to notice they can't pay their bills

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Speaker 1: and inflation is still high. You can't just like pray

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Speaker 1: that people aren't going to realize that their budgets are

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Speaker 1: and they're like basically getting a pay cut every single week.

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Speaker 1: That is not going to work out. So again, I

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Speaker 1: think it would be difficult for them to win economic voters,

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Speaker 1: but because abortion is a saliing issue, because you have

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Speaker 1: a cast of characters on the Republican side that's like

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Speaker 1: insane psycho, where do they even find these people that

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Speaker 1: would have at least kept them in the game. And

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Speaker 1: I think there is a compelling case that they could

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Speaker 1: make that they just decided instead to bury their heads

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Speaker 1: in the sand and be like, no, actually the economy

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Speaker 1: is great, Yeah that's fair, or why don't we give

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Speaker 1: the bluepe? All right? So here is the theory of

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Speaker 1: the case for Democrats. If you're looking for any sort

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Speaker 1: of hopeful signs that maybe this isn't going to work

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Speaker 1: out the way that things seem to be trending in

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Speaker 1: a lot of the indicators. The last Maris poll that

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Speaker 1: came out actually is pretty good for Democrats. That's gone.

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Speaker 1: But this on the screen to start with, You've got

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Speaker 1: Fetterman beating Oz by six percentage points fifty to forty four. That's,

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Speaker 1: of course in Pennsylvania. I've also got Shapiro of Vermastriano

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Speaker 1: there by an even larger margin. You have Kelly hanging

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Speaker 1: on in Arizona to win over Blake Masters by four

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Speaker 1: points forty nine to forty five. You even have this

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Speaker 1: one skeptical this is going to work out, but Katie Hobbs,

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Speaker 1: the Democrat holding on for governor there over Carrie Lake

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Speaker 1: forty eight to forty seven. Georgia Senate, you have Warnock

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Speaker 1: narrowly over Walker four points forty nine to forty five.

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Speaker 1: By the way, we should always note on Georgia, very

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Speaker 1: likely Georgia goes to a runoff, because if neither of

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Speaker 1: these candidates get over fifty, then you're in runoff territory.

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Speaker 1: So that's kind of what I expect to happen in

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Speaker 1: the Georgia Senate race, whether Warnock or Walker ultimately edges

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Speaker 1: the other one out in total votes, and then you

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Speaker 1: have This one is just consistent across the board, kept

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Speaker 1: beating Abrams for governor of Georgia. But you know, if

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Speaker 1: you're a Democrat, you're looking at those numbers and go, okay,

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Speaker 1: all right, getting Pennsylvania, getting Arizona, getting Georgia. These numbers

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Speaker 1: look pretty solid. We could live with that. You also

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Speaker 1: have in the final NBC News poll, I saw a

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Speaker 1: lot of Democrats sharing this news from that particular poll.

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Speaker 1: Go ahead and put that up on the screen. You

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Speaker 1: have Democratic enthusiasm rising to be at the same level

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Speaker 1: as Republican enthusiasm. Previously Republicans in the last poll that

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Speaker 1: they had taken, they had Republicans with a pretty significant edge.

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Speaker 1: I think it was like nine points in terms of

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Speaker 1: being highly interested in this election. So if you're a

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Speaker 1: Democrat like, oh, this tells a different story than what

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Speaker 1: I'm seeing in a lot of the other indicators, which

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Speaker 1: are all trending to the Republicans. Maybe Democrats are turning

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Speaker 1: out in a higher rate than is really reflected in

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Speaker 1: some of these polls because they've closed the enthusiasm gap.

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Speaker 1: You have the generic congressional ballot, they have Dems up

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Speaker 1: by one point. Unfortunately for Democrats, you know, even if

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Speaker 1: they were to win by a point or basically tie

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Speaker 1: in terms of the generic congressional ballot, you have to

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Speaker 1: win by several points in order for Democrats to win

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Speaker 1: the House. So even that indicator here is not that great.

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Speaker 1: And I do have to say, you know, if you

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Speaker 1: dig into any of the other numbers in this poll, Sager,

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Speaker 1: they also are not that great for Democrats. You've got

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Speaker 1: Biden's approval writing Steale forty four percent, You've got seventy

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Speaker 1: percent saying the US is on the wrong track. You

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Speaker 1: have bad numbers in terms of the economy. But you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're looking for sort of like hopeful signs, the

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Speaker 1: fact that you have high democratic enthusiasm is encouraging. One

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Speaker 1: other thing I pulled here that I thought was interesting

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Speaker 1: and that we'd covered before. Nate Conant the New York Times,

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Speaker 1: who's been not only tracking what their data says, but

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Speaker 1: also tracking like what's the state of polling in America?

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Speaker 1: He had previously said, Guys' warning signs abound that we're

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Speaker 1: having the same sort of pulling misses as we did previously.

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Speaker 1: These polsters haven't really fixed their issues. You're seeing them

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Speaker 1: unexpected overperformance in some of the same states where we

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Speaker 1: had huge misses, states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Well, he's

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Speaker 1: now saying that that polling warning sign has significantly dimmed.

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Speaker 1: Let's put this last piece up on the screen here.

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Speaker 1: He says, the emergence of Republican leaning polsters has reduced

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Speaker 1: the risk that polling averages will overestimate Democrats. And in fact,

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Speaker 1: a lot of those races like Pennsylvania where we were like,

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Speaker 1: is Fetterman really up by like twelve and fourteen points?

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Speaker 1: Pretty doubtful there will now obviously that shows a much

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Speaker 1: much narrow or margin, even with odds leading in certain instances.

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Speaker 1: You know, same thing, Ohio. It no longer, Tim Ryan,

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Speaker 1: I haven't seen a poll with him up or even

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Speaker 1: really that close in quite a while. Ohio. These white

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Speaker 1: working class states are you know, places where there have

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Speaker 1: been significant polling misses, so you no longer have that

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Speaker 1: trend of sort of unexpected polling out performance. And some

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Speaker 1: of the states with some of the big misses. So

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Speaker 1: if you're a Democrat, you look at that and go like, Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: maybe the polls are actually like if I look at

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Speaker 1: that average is kind of accurate, and if the polls

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Speaker 1: are kind of accurate going into the you know, especially

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Speaker 1: for the Senate races. Then we're in the hunt. We

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Speaker 1: got a chance to hold on. It's possible. I would

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Speaker 1: just say. He says, well, at best, you know, it

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Speaker 1: looks like the polling miss is like twenty eighteen. So

430
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 1: I'm like, okay, well, what was pulling miss in twenty eighteen.

431
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 1: Well we may forget that. Marshall Blackburn ended up beating

432
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 1: our polls by twelve points in Tennessee, Ohio ended up

433
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,639
Speaker 1: going by seven. Pennsylvania outperformed by four, all in the

434
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,679
Speaker 1: Republican director. Yeah, of course, in Pennsylvania by four, Georgia

435
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 1: actually by one, so Arizona also by one. So many

436
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 1: of the states in twenty eighteen, if you have a

437
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 1: similar polling era, of which Nate Cone is saying, it

438
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 1: looks like all of those actually underestimated, specifically GOP performance

439
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 1: in the Senate in those states. So in a fifty

440
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 1: to fifty environment, I still think it would go to

441
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 1: the Look, I don't know. I mean again, it totally

442
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: could go the other way. If you want to talk

443
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 1: about Nevada we were talking about this morning. Yeah, some

444
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 1: interesting data, Yeah, this was interesting I'll add this one

445
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: into the positive science. This is actually maybe the best

446
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 1: sign that I've seen for Democrats, to be honest with you,

447
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,639
Speaker 1: So John Ralston, who some of you guys will know,

448
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 1: is this like longtime storied political analyst in the state

449
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,920
Speaker 1: of Nevada. He's got his own blog and he has

450
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 1: tracked early voting data in Nevada, which has long been

451
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 1: a state that has a significant proportion of the mail

452
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 1: and vote for a long time, and he has been

453
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 1: extremely accurate in terms of being able to look at

454
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,480
Speaker 1: the early vote and forecasts who's ultimately going to win

455
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 1: on election day. And he is actually just this morning

456
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:08,640
Speaker 1: after a batch of very strong mail for Democrats came in,

457
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: he is actually predicting that Catherine Cortez Masto is going

458
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 1: to hold on and effectively, I mean, Nevada is a

459
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: state that I'm fascinated by politically because it's much more

460
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: working class. Democrats have been able to hold on to

461
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 1: more of a working class base there, primarily because of

462
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:27,439
Speaker 1: the union density and because of the storied like read machine.

463
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,679
Speaker 1: Now Harry Reid has passed away, but the machine is

464
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:34,640
Speaker 1: at least somewhat still in operation, and so Catherine Cortez Masto,

465
00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 1: who has actually trailed in a lot more of the

466
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 1: polls and a lot more of the average longer than

467
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 1: the other Democratic candidates. He's saying she pulls it off now.

468
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 1: Nevada polls have been more accurate than other polls, and

469
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 1: also Democrats have even in you know, years where things

470
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: went badly for them in other places, they've been able

471
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 1: to sort of shore things up in Nevada again because

472
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:00,959
Speaker 1: of that union density and because of the red machine.

473
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: So I thought that was interesting. I mean, he's very

474
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 1: cautious in the prediction he's made. He said, Look, I

475
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: could still see it going either way. Really depends how

476
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 1: strong the turnout is an election day. It depends where

477
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 1: the you know, the unaffiliated voters who don't say they're

478
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 1: Republican or Democrat, Like, how hard do they swing in

479
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 1: one direction or the other. It could still definitely go

480
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 1: for the other, Dude Laxalt, but said Laxalt's brought a

481
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 1: lackluster campaign Catherine Cortez master It was nothing to write

482
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: home about either. But he thinks that ultimately she hangs

483
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 1: on even as the Democratic governor he thinks is more

484
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 1: likely to lose. Yeah, I think it's possible. I have

485
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,199
Speaker 1: a friend though, who went through and actually read some

486
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 1: of Ralston's analysis and actually said, by Rawson's own analysis,

487
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 1: if their independence do break, then La Salt is going

488
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 1: to win. So I think that is, you know, the

489
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 1: one caveat, which is that even by his own numbers,

490
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 1: if their GOP does win the independent vote there, then

491
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 1: they are going to win. Now, as you said, Nevada

492
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 1: is kind of a crazy state. You do have it's rural,

493
00:23:56,480 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 1: but you have a lot more union you have Nevada.

494
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 1: It's like urban and rural divide. You have a lot

495
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 1: of educational alignment that you don't see necessarily across the

496
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 1: rest of the country with working class men and voters.

497
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 1: So it is very interesting demographically also up there. I

498
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 1: think it's I think it's very interesting, and it's possible.

499
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: There's also an interesting environment we were talking about this morning,

500
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: where you could see a upset in Nevada, not an

501
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: upset you could see the Democrat there holding on, but

502
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 1: then a possible upset in here in the east coast,

503
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 1: like in New Hampshire. But in general, as you and

504
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 1: I were saying before the show, these things all move

505
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 1: in one way. Either all the Republics win or they don't,

506
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 1: So we'll see. I mean, I will say if any

507
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 1: state was going to be a little different than the

508
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 1: other ones, I do think it's Nevada. Yeah, just because

509
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 1: I mean you could put it intuit directions. I mean,

510
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:45,360
Speaker 1: number one, they were incredibly hit hard by inflation, They're

511
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 1: incredibly hit hard by COVID because it is a service

512
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 1: dominated economy. But on the other hand, we have seen

513
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: Nevada sort of hold on even in red wave years

514
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: for Democrats because of some of those structural underlying factors.

515
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 1: You were going to have one state that went a

516
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 1: little bit of a different way than the other ones,

517
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 1: Nevada would be a good candidate, you know. Equally is interesting,

518
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 1: he says, the early voting numbers do not indicate a

519
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 1: red wave, just the possibility of one if everything breaks

520
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: right for Republicans. This is not like twenty fourteen, when

521
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 1: all the early voting data confirmed red wave, I know,

522
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 1: after a couple of days, and was just a question

523
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: of how many votes would be lifted by the red tide.

524
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:30,439
Speaker 1: And so again you have these sort of contradictory indicators overall.

525
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 1: You know, I think you would you would definitely rather

526
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: be the Republicans going into election day. As I look

527
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 1: at all of this data, you've really got a kind

528
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: of cherry pick to find things that look positive for Democrats,

529
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: this being a key piece of it. And it goes

530
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,479
Speaker 1: back to, you know, do you believe at the end

531
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: of the day, the macro structural factors of economy right track,

532
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 1: wrong track, presidential approval, inflation? Do you believe those things

533
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: are going to be more determinative than Republicans nominated a

534
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 1: group of like terrible candidates. And is it those individual

535
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 1: candidate quality issues that will ultimately be the determining factor?

536
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: You know, it has long been my theory that the

537
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 1: overall national mood is more important. But we have to say, like,

538
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 1: you know, if Republicans had nominated basically like Glenn Youngkin

539
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 1: types in all of these races, win done deal, it'd

540
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 1: be over. It wouldn't even be close. So they've given

541
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: Democrats every opportunity to be able to stay in this

542
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 1: fight and even have a shot on election day. But

543
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,959
Speaker 1: even with you know, with that caveat in there, overall,

544
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 1: I still think things are moving very much towards me.

545
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: I'll tell you one thing, Chris, Yeah, which is that

546
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's last campaign stop at twenty twenty is going

547
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 1: to be here in Ashburn, Virginia. And to me, the

548
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: fact that you have to contest an area with nine

549
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,959
Speaker 1: did you won by nineteen points in twenty twenty, Listen,

550
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: I mean, you can make the case for the way

551
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: of all you want. I'm looking at that the man

552
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 1: who's campaigned in Oregon. Okay, well, when you have to

553
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: go to Oregon, I mean it's also partly because he's

554
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: so dreadful on the stump. It's also that they just

555
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 1: they don't want to send him anywhere where he could

556
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,199
Speaker 1: do damage. Really, I mean, and he's not popular, so

557
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 1: the candidates aren't like clamoring to have him there. They

558
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: much rather have Obama if they're gonna, you know, pick someone,

559
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 1: and so yeah, I mean they send him to Florida

560
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 1: like Ron de Santis is gonna win by probably double

561
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: digit like go Charlie Chris. I mean, so they you know,

562
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 1: the strategy was basically to not have him do a lot,

563
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 1: but to go places. I think he also didn't he

564
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: go to like Maryland, Yes, to campaign for the Democratic

565
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: gubernatorial nominee who's like definitely going to win again. By

566
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: double digits, So I think that's more what they're focused

567
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,120
Speaker 1: on is like, where can we send Joe that he's

568
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 1: not going to cause any problems, And even doing that,

569
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 1: he's still caused some problems, talking about like shutting down

570
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 1: coal plants and the way that dumber grat always Son died.

571
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 1: But I guess we could put that for a second. Yeah,

572
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: we'll get we'll get to that. At the same time,

573
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: we did have some reporters on the ground with our

574
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 1: affiliate status coup at a I think it was at

575
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: the the Obama Biden rally in Pennsylvania and then also

576
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 1: outside of the Trump rally and Sylvania, a lot of

577
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 1: folks flooding the zone in Pennsylvania. They talked to some

578
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: of the voters there about how they're thinking about this election,

579
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 1: what issues are top of mind for them. Let's take

580
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 1: a lesson. Why I'm voting is because I'm tired of

581
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: the line the Republican Party feel that they can get

582
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: away with crime and lie. Mister Oz is a hypocrite,

583
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: he's a coward, and he's a liar. No doctor talks

584
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,640
Speaker 1: about a stroke, Vin, you don't use a stroke Victa

585
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 1: for whatever he called he called betterment were taxed fraud.

586
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: But he's kissing Trump's but who's under indictment for taxing.

587
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 1: He's a coward because he's going to descendate to help

588
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: McConnell and Trump. He's not his own man. And he's

589
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: a pathopholological liar for what he did with the diet

590
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:57,239
Speaker 1: supplements of the opioa. He only spent five minutes here

591
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 1: to sign a thing that said that he's living with

592
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 1: his mother. Really, there is no GOP in this state

593
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: that couldn't represent Pennsylvania. They had to go to New Jersey.

594
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 1: Come on, be serious, be serious. Veterans for Fort Fetterman, Shapiro, Somemmer,

595
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 1: League Deluzio. And I'm an independent voter and I will

596
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 1: never vote for another Republican after January sixth, And that's

597
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: a fact. What is your top issue when you're making

598
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 1: your decision on the vote right now? The border? The border, inflation, everything,

599
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: border in inflation, order and inflation. Okay, got jess, what

600
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: do you think Republicans are going to do to solve inflation?

601
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: That's kind of making you lean towards them versus any

602
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: Democrat candidate. Right, do have the slightest idea of what

603
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 1: they'll do. There's a lot of things they could do.

604
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: First of all, there's stuff that there's money that's being

605
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: spent that doesn't have to be spent, and granted everybody

606
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 1: should have a fair share, but there's little liquidities that

607
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: can be sold off which we don't need. And the

608
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 1: big thing about that is one start, the whole thing

609
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: is once you have to pull the inflation back, but

610
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: you can't do without dropping the bottom out of the market.

611
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: You dropped the bottom out of the market. We're back

612
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: in nineteen twenty nine, right, So once that, you know,

613
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: it's gonna have to be a slow process. It can

614
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: be done, but you got to just say that's it,

615
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 1: we're done spending and Zager, I think in those just

616
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 1: a couple of interviews, you see exactly what we're talking about.

617
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 1: The person who's going to vote for the Democrats. What's

618
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: he talking about? Oz is specific character clearly in the

619
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 1: news too. Yeah. Yeah. Also, I love always says he's independent.

620
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: I'm like, bro, you're not. Like, here's the thing. It's fine.

621
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: I enjoy seeing the way that people conceive of themselves. Yeah,

622
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 1: but so so you see that the character traits of

623
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 1: Oz are what he's focused on. And then when you

624
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 1: talk to the you know, the ones outside the Trump

625
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 1: rally who are all voting for the Republicans, they're focused

626
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 1: on It's inflation, it's the border. And it also shows you,

627
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 1: like Republicans don't even really have to have an answer

628
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: of what they would do about inflation. When you're the

629
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: party that's in opposition. All you have to say is

630
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 1: like the macross are in control and things aren't going exactly,

631
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: so you know, it's it's incumbent on the Democrats to

632
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: be able to explain like, Okay, here's why, and here's

633
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 1: what we'll do, and here's why it'll be different next time.

634
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: The Republicans really can just say, like inflation, inflation, inflation,

635
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 1: without having any plan, and it's sufficient. I completely agree.

636
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 1: It was a good illustration too. You know, Philadelphia, the

637
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 1: rally that's happening, that's exactly what they're trying to They're

638
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: going to try and recreate the story of twenty twenty,

639
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: driving out a ton of vote in the city of

640
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 1: Philly and in the mainline suburbs, and of course you

641
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 1: know Western pa Bucks County as well, which is just

642
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 1: on fire. You have all three presidents which were in

643
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 1: the state basically in the same weekend, which is kind

644
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 1: of crazy. Yeah, Bernie was out there, Ernie was out there,

645
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 1: everybody was in Pennsylvania, which is fun because it's a

646
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: preview also of twenty twenty four. And I think it

647
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 1: does just show you the changing electorate, where the polls

648
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: are trending, and it just shows like with in those

649
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: two things, you got an illustration of exactly how a

650
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: lot of people are thinking. So I like listening to

651
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,719
Speaker 1: actual voters. Yes, indeed, all right, let's move on now

652
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 1: to Trump twenty twenty four. Possibly, let's go and put

653
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: the up there on the screen. The Trump team is

654
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: leaking to first Axios, but then to every single major

655
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 1: paper in the country. November fourteenth could be the day,

656
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 1: maybe all but possibly he might change his mind. As

657
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: with anything Trump, he probably will. But November fourteenth, for now,

658
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 1: the official announcement will be followed quote by a multi

659
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 1: day series of political events. Trump and his top advisors

660
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 1: have been sigling now twenty for twenty four announcement is imminent,

661
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 1: and those discussions have reached the point allies are blocking

662
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: off days in their calendars for the week after the

663
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 1: midterms and preparing to travel. Why Trump is pointing towards

664
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 1: a possible good night for Republicans. He wants to surf

665
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 1: on the post midterm euphoria to build momentum for his

666
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: campaign and to try and retake the White House. He

667
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: wants to see it as a referendum on him, not

668
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 1: on inflation in the broader economy. Why I think this

669
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: is very interesting is, as always, he wants to preempt

670
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 1: as soon as possible anybody who might actually run against him.

671
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:58,959
Speaker 1: And we'll get to the Dessantis part, which a lot

672
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: of people are focusing on in a second. But to me,

673
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: the major news was Tom Cotton called all of his

674
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 1: donors yesterday and officially leaked it I'm not running in

675
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. I think it's smart. He's a young man.

676
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: Why would you do it? I mean, I've seen a

677
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: lot of discussion on this. We could save some of

678
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: this for the Dysantis conversation. But the Mike Pompeos of

679
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 1: the world, Tom Cotton, Nikki Haley, any Chris Christy, I mean,

680
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: you don't have a chance in hell. I mean, I

681
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,239
Speaker 1: just don't know why. It is not eminently obvious to

682
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: anyone that even in take Florida for example, Even there

683
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 1: DeSantis is tied with Trump in a head to head

684
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: pole like New Hampshire, there was that one poll that

685
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 1: showed DeSantis ahead, but then actually another one came out

686
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: and Trump was winning by like twenty five points. Like

687
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 1: everybody likes to focus on like one or two poles

688
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: here or there, But here's the reality. He's the most

689
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 1: popular figure in the Republican Party by a mile. Some

690
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 1: people don't like him, most of them are not Republicans today,

691
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 1: And as twenty twenty showed us, you can have a

692
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 1: very low approval rating and still get seventy five million

693
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 1: votes for the press if people don't like the other guy.

694
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: So listen, I mean, it's a formidable candidate for all

695
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: of the quote unquote gepiece civil war. I don't think

696
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 1: there will be one. It's very smart to announce as

697
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,720
Speaker 1: early as possible. Personally, I think he should have announced

698
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: the day that he was raided by the FBI, because

699
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: that's when Glenn Youngkin and all those other people came out.

700
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: Everybody's like, oh, he'll screw up the midterms. Listen, Trump

701
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 1: is baked in no matter what. At this point, I

702
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: think people have proven that they care about many things

703
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 1: other than Trump. Well, I think here's the other dynamic

704
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 1: is it's very likely Trump is going to get indicted, yeah,

705
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 1: and that that's going to happen pretty soon. And what's

706
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 1: going to happen is, just like with the raid, everybody

707
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:41,439
Speaker 1: from Ronda Santis to Glenn Youngkin to Mike Pompeo, every

708
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 1: single one of them is going to have to defend

709
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 1: him when he's indicted, bend the knee once again, just

710
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: like they did when mar A Lago was raided. It

711
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: only with the bass strengthens his hands a different deal

712
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 1: with the general elector, but with the base it really

713
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 1: only makes him stronger, forces them all to again come

714
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 1: to a show who the real boss is in terms

715
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,839
Speaker 1: of the Republican Party, and also once again focuses the

716
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: entire media ecosystem around him. So he's planning, it looks like,

717
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: to announce very quickly before an indictment comes in. And

718
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 1: that's also like part of the calculation here, and before anyone,

719
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: i mean DeSantis will have just been re elected. He's

720
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 1: obviously not going to be any position to like then

721
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 1: just turn around and be like, by the way, now

722
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 1: I'm running for president after you just re elected me

723
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 1: as governor, and he's able to sort of consolidate support

724
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 1: and you know, really assert his continued dominance of the party.

725
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 1: And to me, you know, it's a fairly simple story.

726
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:37,800
Speaker 1: I actually think Biden is in a much weaker position.

727
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: I'm talking about some of this in my monologue Visa

728
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: VI the Democratic Party than Trump is with the Republican Party.

729
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 1: So a lot of things he's you know, ridiculous and

730
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 1: can be a fool, But in terms of just political

731
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 1: power moves and branding, the dude is a genius. And

732
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 1: I think to get out right after the midterms and

733
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,720
Speaker 1: go ahead and launch your campaign and make it clear

734
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 1: to all comers that you're the guy, you're in it

735
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 1: and show that sort of like Show of four, show

736
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 1: of strength. Yeah, I think it's a savvy miss. And

737
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: every Republican candidate is going to have to bow. I mean,

738
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 1: Oz is going to bow all of them. Yeah, who

739
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 1: were if you were a Walker? You know, let's think

740
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 1: if Walker wins, literally, Trump is the one who picked him.

741
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: Nobody else wanted Herschel Walker to be the next senator

742
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 1: from Georgia. So he's going to have to go and

743
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 1: bow with Trump, every one of these guys every single time.

744
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 1: Like I'm telling you so, I will never forget. I

745
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 1: interviewed Trump in twenty eighteen, the days after the midterm elections.

746
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: Was a big interview for me because it was the

747
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 1: first interview they gave after the twenty and eighty and

748
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 1: he went race by he was obsessed. He's like, look

749
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 1: at DeSantis, he was down by thirty six. I came in,

750
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 1: I endorsed him anyone now he won big. You know,

751
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 1: he goes down the list of every person. He actually

752
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 1: had a list in front of him, prepared by his staff.

753
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 1: Every person he endorsed what they were at before he

754
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 1: endorsed them, how they want they won their primary, and

755
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 1: then what they won the election by. He is obsessed

756
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 1: with getting the credit for and I anticipate that he's

757
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,319
Speaker 1: going to be doing that all throughout this tour, whether

758
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: it's true or not. I mean, look, it's a smart move, right, Like,

759
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 1: you're the person you're going to show, Hey, we just

760
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:12,879
Speaker 1: had this big GOP support. I'm going to take back

761
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 1: the White House in twenty twenty four. Well, one of

762
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 1: the things we covered in the Republican primaries was some

763
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 1: of the just like embarrassing lengths that Republican candidates would

764
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 1: go to to try to secure his endorsement. Did not

765
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 1: see a similar dynamic with regard to Ronda Santis. I mean,

766
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 1: there's just no doubt that if you are a Republican

767
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 1: running in a Republican primary and depending on the Republican

768
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: base for your power, whose endorsement you would rather have,

769
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 1: It's not even close because this is, you know, largely

770
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 1: where the basis. So I guess let's go ahead and

771
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: get to the distantles part and that we need to

772
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 1: blush that out fully teased it so much. Let's get

773
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 1: ahead to this clip lots of notice and we'll have

774
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 1: lots of commentary. Let's take a lesson. Is Trump at

775
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 1: seventy one? Ronda Sanctimonius said ten, Mike Penn sid seven, Oh,

776
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 1: Mike's doying better than I thought. Mike's doing better than

777
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 1: I thought. Ron the sanctimony? What do you all think? So,

778
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, Initially I was somewhat overwhelmed. However, now

779
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 1: that I have seen the pushback from the DeSantis bros. Online,

780
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 1: I think Trump was onto something. So let's go put

781
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 1: this up there for Matt Walsh, the Daily Wire crew

782
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 1: is very upset about this. They're all like, DeSantis is

783
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 1: an extremely effective conservative governor who's had real policy wins,

784
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: real cultural wins. Trump isn't going to be able to

785
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 1: take this one down with a dumb nickname. He better

786
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: have more than that up his sleeve, you know. Costa

787
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 1: of Robert Costa over at CBS News had a similar

788
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 1: take where he's like, many dysantis allies are dispirited by

789
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 1: President Trump's attack on him, a popular Republican governor, they

790
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:44,280
Speaker 1: did not expect to try and take him down ahead

791
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 1: of the election. I'm like, listen, do you know Trump? Like?

792
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: Are you like, do he cares about the Republican Party.

793
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 1: It's the man has been at the center of politics

794
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 1: since twenty fifteen. It's been seven years. I think we

795
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 1: all know he doesn't care about the Republican Party. Hence

796
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,480
Speaker 1: that famous moment where he's like, maybe I'll run as

797
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 1: an independent if I don't win the nomination. He literally

798
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 1: only cares about one thing, which is attention and as

799
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: a commodity he can see and it is probably extremely aggravated,

800
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,439
Speaker 1: as many reports have indicated that Ron DeSantis has even

801
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: floated somewhat next to his name, and anybody who believes

802
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: that DeSantis could somehow win a GOP nomination without attacking

803
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 1: Trump and not getting into a full scale brawl as

804
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 1: Cruz and as Rubio both did, and then somehow come

805
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 1: out victorious. What are you smoking? Like? You and I

806
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,320
Speaker 1: have said this, And it's funny because a lot of

807
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 1: the DeSantis people they don't want to hear it. And

808
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 1: yet every poll I've ever looked at for GOP voters

809
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 1: tells me that DeSantis is purely like a college educated

810
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 1: phenomena amongst college educated men, specifically in the GOP, DeSantis

811
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 1: is the prefer candidate amongst working classmen. It's like seventy

812
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 1: eight twenty Trump, and you're not, at this point winning

813
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 1: a Republican primary with a college education exactly like sort

814
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 1: of more elite electorate, right, not happening? Yeah, I mean,

815
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: that's to me, the DeSantis phenomenon. It's like the new

816
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 1: iteration of the sort of like never Trump instinct. It's

817
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 1: like people who the people are really behind it, are like,

818
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 1: we don't like Trump, we think he's obnoxious. We you know,

819
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:25,799
Speaker 1: we want to replace him, we want someone else. But

820
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 1: the going directly Adam didn't work. So let's get someone

821
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,839
Speaker 1: who's like sort of aligned with him and certainly backs

822
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:35,360
Speaker 1: his agenda and hasn't said mean things about him. Maybe

823
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 1: we can like sneak someone in that way, but ultimately

824
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 1: these two people are going to be head to head

825
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: if DeSantis even runs, which there was also some reporting

826
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 1: that he was basically signaling to donors like I think

827
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 1: I'm got a way. Well apparently you know what that

828
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 1: Remember Ken Griffin, the Game Stop billionaire, Yeah, that guy,

829
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 1: He's like, I would write an unlimited check for him.

830
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, let's take the corrupt Game Stop guy. Yeah,

831
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 1: you'll be for a person, and you know it's not

832
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 1: to your benefit when the only people who are truly

833
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: in your corner are like the Ben Shapiros of the world.

834
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 1: Ben was a never trumper twyeh Ben sixteen exactly right,

835
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 1: he did in twenty twenty. But he's like a tangential

836
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: ally he's like a true con of the conservative movement

837
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 1: and cares about that. Trump doesn't care about any of that, right,

838
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: and I have to come back to this like true

839
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 1: fantasy Trump does for all the reasons for why people

840
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:27,240
Speaker 1: would prefer DeSantis. Quote, he gets things done. Trump without Trump,

841
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 1: those are the reasons why people love Trump. Like that's

842
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 1: what nobody has ever wanted to grapple with. You know.

843
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 1: I see these guys and like, listen, I used to

844
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,399
Speaker 1: think this way, so I'm somewhat sympathetic. They're like, well,

845
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 1: you know, if the GOP is going to win on

846
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 1: the backs working class voters, they're gonna have to deliver

847
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 1: for them. I'm like, oh, really did Trump do that?

848
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 1: Trump had two singular achievements in office. Number one, he

849
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 1: cut taxes for rich people in corporations too. He led

850
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 1: a bunch of drug dealers out of prison. Guess what

851
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 1: he didn't do suffer any at all in the polls.

852
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 1: He actually won ten million more votes, So I see

853
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 1: no evidence. So they have to deliver anything for many

854
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 1: of the people who are out there right now, and

855
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 1: you still can't be tremendously successful at the ballot box.

856
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 1: I don't wish it were that way, but it is.

857
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 1: I mean, he has really made the Republican Party synonymous

858
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 1: with him, and so DeSantis is able to rise a

859
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 1: bit as long as there isn't this direct head to

860
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,239
Speaker 1: head confrontation. And this is what I always and they

861
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 1: have this series like, oh, well DeSantis did better on

862
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,399
Speaker 1: the Lock. I honestly, I mean, first of all, that's

863
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 1: like a ways of the past years ago, and sorry.

864
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 1: Second of all, like you think that like the facts

865
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 1: and the reality of the particular policy decisions that were made,

866
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:38,839
Speaker 1: Trump will just make up some other shit, some other

867
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 1: narrative of what happened, and people will go along with it.

868
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 1: So ultimately, you know, I don't even know if DeSantis

869
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 1: really ends up running. I also, you know a lot

870
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: of people are very critical of the like dy sanctimonies.

871
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: They didn't think it was that great of a nickname.

872
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: Actually thought it was kind of good, because I agree

873
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: the thing with a nickname is it has to strike

874
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 1: at something that is, you know, that has the kernel

875
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 1: of truth that makes the person into a caricature of

876
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 1: some of their worst traits. And I thought it was interesting.

877
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 1: There was reporting this morning about how Trump came up

878
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 1: with the nickname, and I guess he's been privately testing

879
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: different they describe as derisive nicknames for mister DeSantis with

880
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 1: his friends and advisors. Roger Stone had floated this one

881
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: in particular on truth social But what really locked in

882
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 1: dysanctimonious for Trump was that DeSantis released this video that

883
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 1: was aimed at, they say, infusing his candidacy with a

884
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 1: sense of the divine. The ninety six second black and

885
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 1: white video, which invokes God ten times, was fashioned after

886
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 1: a famous So God Made a Farmer's speech in the

887
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 1: seventies by the radio broadcaster Paul Harvey. You guys probably

888
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 1: remember the Rams Trucks used it in a Super Bowl

889
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 1: ad highlighting the importance of farming. Well, DeSantis took that

890
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,800
Speaker 1: and made his own version, which was posted by his wife,

891
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 1: where they say and on the eighth Day, God looked

892
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 1: down on his plan in Paradise and said, I need

893
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:06,320
Speaker 1: a protector. So God made a fighter fight. It's Ron DeSantis.

894
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 1: So you can see in watching that how you're like, yeah,

895
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:12,399
Speaker 1: to sanctimonious, that fits pretty well. Actually listen once again,

896
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 1: I just got to come back to it like, oh,

897
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 1: he gets things done. People don't care about getting things done.

898
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 1: They're like, oh, he listened. And even DeSantis, I'm not

899
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 1: I'm gonna look, I think he's fine, but having watched him,

900
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 1: like he doesn't have the it factor. I'm always like

901
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 1: the case that they always make He's like Trump without

902
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: the X, but people love the X. They're there for

903
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 1: the show. That's the whole point. Once again, Do I

904
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 1: want politics to work this way? No? But it does.

905
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 1: I mean we have to be you go to war

906
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 1: with the troops that you have, and like simply the

907
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 1: troops show that they love Trump every polling indication that

908
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 1: we have. The endorsement thing is such a good example.

909
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 1: You have state senators out there who are literally running

910
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 1: on like I'm back in Trump in like Wisconsin for

911
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 1: the they don't. Yeah, they know who he is, they

912
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,360
Speaker 1: like him, but he's a second figure. He's like a

913
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:04,800
Speaker 1: you know, a B list star compared to a list talent.

914
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 1: And look, you know, for all of the talk of

915
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 1: effectiveness and all that, like I just I do not

916
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 1: see any evidence that any of that actually matters to

917
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 1: any of the people who will vote in a GOP

918
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 1: mind of primary and the freak ount over it was

919
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 1: to me very interesting because I was like, what did

920
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 1: y'all think was going to happen? Yeah, I know, Like,

921
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 1: did you just think he was going to just let

922
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 1: DeSantis do his thing and never like try to check

923
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 1: his rising influence? Of course of course not. I mean

924
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 1: he was always going to come to some sort of

925
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 1: a head to head confrontation if you really are seriously

926
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,840
Speaker 1: think this is going to get done. So anyway, interesting

927
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 1: and listen, guys, day after the midterm twenty twenty four

928
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,880
Speaker 1: is on. If it's not on already, there's all kinds

929
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 1: of you know, questions about what Biden's going to do

930
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 1: and what the midterms mean for him, and all sorts

931
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 1: of jocking on the Democratic side, obviously the Republican side.

932
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 1: So just prepare yourself. It's twenty twenty four right away,

933
00:45:57,200 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: the minute that the polls close on to night. I'm

934
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:07,800
Speaker 1: gonna enjoy it, and we have no other choice. Chaos

935
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 1: over at Twitter, Let's start with this one. Elon having

936
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 1: some serious trouble here. Let's put it up there on

937
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 1: the screen. He says, quote. Twitter has had massive drop

938
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 1: in revenue due to activist groups pressuring advertisers, even though

939
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:24,280
Speaker 1: nothing has changed with content moderation, and we did everything

940
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 1: that we could to appease the activists. Extremely messed up.

941
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 1: They are trying to destroy free speech in America. Well,

942
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:33,799
Speaker 1: as we have said from day one, whenever you are

943
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: an advertiser relied business, it is going to be tremendously

944
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:40,760
Speaker 1: a big problem because many of those folks are ruled

945
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 1: by an ideology or at the very least, like they

946
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: don't want to have to deal with a bad headline.

947
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:47,400
Speaker 1: They're not ruled by an ideology other than money, and

948
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 1: they're worried about like, yeah, he says, oh, content moderation

949
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:54,840
Speaker 1: hasn't changed, but then he has made some specific content moderation.

950
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 1: He's just totally erratic and all over the place. That's

951
00:46:56,800 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 1: actually so they're like, we're just gonna wait this thing out.

952
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 1: He did in himself no favors with that advertise on

953
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: those advertisers thing. By tweeting the Paul Pelosi story out.

954
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:06,760
Speaker 1: That's actually I think that might actually be the single

955
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 1: most impactful play that he has done his owner, because

956
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 1: they're like, I can't deal with this, Like if you're

957
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: going to tweet out this stud and look, I think

958
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 1: even now given all this NBC stuff, yeah, we should

959
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:19,879
Speaker 1: ask questions, but you and I'm not. I would never

960
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 1: bring that to air. You know, when the job that

961
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 1: you and I do without verification, we can ask questions.

962
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 1: Asking questions is fine. But by linking to that, he

963
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:32,399
Speaker 1: actually showed, you know, being so quick on the draw

964
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 1: that the advertisers were who are already on the fence,

965
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 1: are like, I'm just not going to go with this.

966
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 1: And you have a bunch of people who are already

967
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 1: being pressured by the NAACP and all these other fake

968
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:44,719
Speaker 1: groups of like which are like, oh, we're going to

969
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,720
Speaker 1: see an explosion of X or Y or whatever word

970
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 1: that you want to see and listen. I mean, that's

971
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 1: that's why I wouldn't say that it's not just money, Crystal.

972
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 1: I think that they are given the fact that Twitter

973
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 1: ads are mostly fake anyway. Yeah, and they've never been

974
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 1: proven to be all that effective, And it was all

975
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,879
Speaker 1: part of like vanity budgeting that to be pressure. It's

976
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 1: not it cost him nothing to actually yield to the activists. Well,

977
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:09,399
Speaker 1: that's there's a million places you can advertise, right, Why

978
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 1: are you going to run the risk of having your

979
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 1: advertisement next to like someone saying the N word and

980
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 1: like saying Paul Pelosi got murdered by his gay lover

981
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 1: or whatever. Like you're just not going to take that risk.

982
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: And so you know, before this all deal closed and everything,

983
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:27,839
Speaker 1: Elon made this comedy was like this is I don't

984
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 1: care about making money at all. He was trying to

985
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 1: portray this like this is just a free speech play.

986
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 1: I mean, at this point that is so obviously absurd

987
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 1: and ridiculous. And you took on a lot of debt

988
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:41,919
Speaker 1: to be able to close this deal. You have responsibility

989
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: to like pay back your lenders and whatever. So it's

990
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 1: not like you can make this some sort of nonprofit

991
00:48:46,920 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 1: play unless you're willing to pony up like your own

992
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 1: net worth in order to backstop the whole thing, which

993
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:53,720
Speaker 1: obviously is not since he took on all this debt.

994
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: So the level of like you said, chaos, erratic decision

995
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:03,480
Speaker 1: making just all over the place. Of course, advertisers are

996
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:06,000
Speaker 1: going to be like, yeah, we're gonna wait, We've got

997
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: a lot of other places that we can spend our dollars,

998
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 1: and we're gonna see how this all shakes out to

999
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: decide whether we're ever coming back. Secondary part two, which

1000
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 1: is that let's put this up there, which is that

1001
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: he's really trying to have it all both ways. He says,

1002
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 1: twitter strong commitment to content generation remains unchanged. In fact,

1003
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:21,640
Speaker 1: we have seen hateful speech at times declined below our

1004
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 1: prior norms. Contrary to what you may read in the press,

1005
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 1: I keep seeing this canard that Elon is putting out there,

1006
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 1: which I think he's just getting completely wrong. He keeps

1007
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 1: saying over and over again, our goal is for Twitter

1008
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 1: to be the most accurate source of information about the world.

1009
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:43,399
Speaker 1: Here's the problem. You cannot look accurate to whom right

1010
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:47,880
Speaker 1: by what standard, given what set of facts. That is

1011
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 1: the mindset which doomed Twitter in the first place. That's

1012
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 1: what led to fact checking. That's what's sticking by the

1013
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 1: community notes feature, which I'm still totally against. Any sort

1014
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:04,560
Speaker 1: of editor judgment about tweets or not is ludicrous. And second,

1015
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 1: you know we have this all just happened last night,

1016
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:10,359
Speaker 1: but Elon now has a policy that verified accounts are

1017
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 1: going to be quote permanently suspended for impersonating. Now, many

1018
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,280
Speaker 1: verified accounts like Kathy Griffin and others were like changing

1019
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 1: their name to Elon Musk. I'm not gonna lie. It's

1020
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 1: actually confusing whenever you're on Twitter because you're like, oh,

1021
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,800
Speaker 1: is that actually Elon or not? But here's the point.

1022
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 1: Now again, you are peeking and choosing what flies and

1023
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 1: what does it. So it's like old boss is the

1024
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 1: same as a new boss. Like what's getting banned. And

1025
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:36,399
Speaker 1: what's not the more that quote accurate information becomes the

1026
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:40,360
Speaker 1: north star and not just let people say whatever they want,

1027
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: as annoying as it is, then really you're just getting

1028
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:47,840
Speaker 1: yourself into dangerous territory and you will fall into the

1029
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:51,360
Speaker 1: same pitfalls that Jack Dorsey fell into that the previous

1030
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 1: censorship regime did. And you know, look, I just a

1031
00:50:54,719 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 1: it's already ruined. It will ruin the experience for the

1032
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 1: users because with the fact checking in all that, you

1033
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,200
Speaker 1: never know what is actually true. Genisis trust in the platform,

1034
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,720
Speaker 1: and it leads to all sorts of debates. And second,

1035
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:08,240
Speaker 1: you know, as we saw, it's not like it's helping

1036
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 1: you with your advertisements in the meantime, No, it's not. Yeah,

1037
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:15,760
Speaker 1: even Jack Dorsey, of course, former CEO and founder of Twitter.

1038
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 1: He even replied, like accurate to who in regards to

1039
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 1: there should be the most accurate platform on the planet. Yes,

1040
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 1: that dude. Fifty shades of Whey tweeted free speech absolutist

1041
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:29,280
Speaker 1: Elon Musk went from comedy is now legal to banning

1042
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 1: Kathy Griffin in less than ten days. Totally fair and also,

1043
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 1: I mean he has a history of being very thin

1044
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:36,800
Speaker 1: skinned in terms of like how he runs his companies

1045
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 1: and whatever too, And this just strikes of Yeah, he

1046
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,160
Speaker 1: didn't like people were making fun of him, so he

1047
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 1: went also from saying no more permanent bands to we're

1048
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 1: permanently banning you for basically making fun of me. It's,

1049
00:51:49,160 --> 00:51:53,720
Speaker 1: you know, again, incredibly erratic. Really reveals a lot about

1050
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:56,959
Speaker 1: the fact that Number one, I mean, I've always been

1051
00:51:57,160 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 1: annoyed talking about the Elon story because there's this whole

1052
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 1: idea among conservatives among liberals of like the good billionaires

1053
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:08,360
Speaker 1: versus the bad billionaires, when what you really see here

1054
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:10,919
Speaker 1: is the reason these platforms are the way they are

1055
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 1: is because of the business incentives. And that was so

1056
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 1: clear instantly when Elon Musk takes over and the first

1057
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 1: thing he does effectively is like write his letter to

1058
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:23,360
Speaker 1: advertisers like please please stay around. There is a business

1059
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,439
Speaker 1: model here that if we want to get away from

1060
00:52:26,520 --> 00:52:28,440
Speaker 1: you're going to have to do something really different. It's

1061
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 1: going to have to come from the government. There is

1062
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:32,719
Speaker 1: no billionaire out there who's going to be better, who's

1063
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:35,520
Speaker 1: going to ultimately rescue it. And I also think that

1064
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 1: it takes some of the luster off of the mythology

1065
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 1: of Elon Musk as well, where it's like, you know,

1066
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 1: he was really seeing as the sort of global genius

1067
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 1: and this like incredible businessman and savvy and he's working

1068
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 1: on a level we can't even understand, and then you

1069
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:55,760
Speaker 1: see these moves that are just scattershot all over the place,

1070
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 1: just throwing everything against the wall, and it's kind of

1071
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 1: a mask off moment in terms of his real capability.

1072
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 1: I will say, so I'll defend him on this count,

1073
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 1: which is that having read the history of Tesla and SpaceX,

1074
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 1: they were a complete shit show until they weren't shit show.

1075
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: So like SpaceX nearly failed and went bankrupt many times.

1076
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 1: In two thousand and six, they had like three there's

1077
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:14,319
Speaker 1: actually a video people should go watch it of him

1078
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 1: with basically used all of the last money on his

1079
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 1: last launch. He's like, if this is it, the company

1080
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:22,239
Speaker 1: is dead, and everybody anyway ended up working Tesla too.

1081
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 1: I mean, it was a nightmare, and that's why short

1082
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 1: sellers were and against the stock for almost a decade

1083
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:30,239
Speaker 1: basically up until now. So I think a man can

1084
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:32,840
Speaker 1: still turn around. Every single one of his companies has

1085
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:37,799
Speaker 1: been typified by chaos but not inspiring moves. And let's

1086
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 1: move on then to the second part here, which is

1087
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 1: exactly gets to what you said, which is that, look,

1088
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 1: if you really do want a Twitter which is free

1089
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:46,799
Speaker 1: of censorship, the only way to really prove it then

1090
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 1: is to have a business model like we do here,

1091
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:52,720
Speaker 1: which is direct a subscription and does not rely on advertisers.

1092
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:56,040
Speaker 1: So the problem though, is that their plan on this

1093
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:58,799
Speaker 1: a I don't think fulfills that with the plan to

1094
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 1: charge eight dollars for verification. But second, that too is

1095
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 1: chaotic in itself. Let's put this up there on the screen.

1096
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 1: This was originally Twitter is to begin offering it's seven

1097
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 1: ninety nine a month verification subscription, but then Crystal just

1098
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 1: last night they announced they're actually going to delay the

1099
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 1: full scale move to verification on Twitter Blue Tech until

1100
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 1: after the midterm elections because they don't want to have

1101
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 1: to deal with any of the ensuing chaos during elections

1102
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:27,040
Speaker 1: and information and whatever is happening on that front. It

1103
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:31,240
Speaker 1: does just highlight though that this scheme is not exactly

1104
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,359
Speaker 1: all that well thought out, and I just let's let's

1105
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:36,319
Speaker 1: highlight it just one more time for people. What they're

1106
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:39,919
Speaker 1: charging eight dollars a month for is allegedly some sort

1107
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 1: of like priority replies and all that other stuff if

1108
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 1: you were to follow and to reply to people, which

1109
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:48,360
Speaker 1: I believe kind of exists for existing verification. But really

1110
00:54:48,360 --> 00:54:50,640
Speaker 1: it's just the blue check for eight dollars a month.

1111
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:54,879
Speaker 1: And again it just underscores that they people who are

1112
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:58,879
Speaker 1: doing this miss the value of what the blue chart,

1113
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 1: blue check even is, which is all it was and

1114
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:04,799
Speaker 1: originally instituted was to make sure that the people who

1115
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:06,919
Speaker 1: are on Twitter, who are tweeting, are who they say

1116
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 1: they are, so you can quote trust the information. Hence

1117
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 1: why tweets from individuals from Jeff Bezos to Bill Gates

1118
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:17,080
Speaker 1: and others can move stock markets, as Euon himself found

1119
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 1: out whenever he tweeted about taking Tesla private. That was

1120
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 1: the point was. It was instituted to make the trust

1121
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:28,320
Speaker 1: the ability of the information on the platform to be trusted.

1122
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 1: By moving away from that and making people pay, he's

1123
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 1: actually losing it because some people, I think both of

1124
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:37,719
Speaker 1: us probably are not going to pay for it. I

1125
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: don't see any inherent value in the check mark. I

1126
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 1: just don't care. But and I've said this before, moving

1127
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 1: towarn enterprise system of you know more followers, being able

1128
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 1: to keep access to them and seeing exactly like getting

1129
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 1: value out of the platform, possibly as customer service. It's

1130
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:54,439
Speaker 1: all kinds of different things that you could do. That's

1131
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 1: where I think the real money is. I really do

1132
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 1: not think that this scheme is going to work. But listen,

1133
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:02,280
Speaker 1: you know, he's fooled us all before, like we'll see.

1134
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:04,439
Speaker 1: But the level of chaos and the lack of real

1135
00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 1: value that you're getting eight dollars a month is a

1136
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,399
Speaker 1: lot of money. That's significant. That's like a Disney Plus

1137
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:12,600
Speaker 1: subscription that's like exactly, that's like one hundred dollars a year.

1138
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:15,400
Speaker 1: I mean, that's not nothing, especially in this economic environment

1139
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:17,440
Speaker 1: when people are stretch really thin, and I've seen him

1140
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:21,760
Speaker 1: like very you know, sort of casual or handwaving away

1141
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 1: the price of this. That's a significant amount for a

1142
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:28,239
Speaker 1: lot of people that I don't think can just be

1143
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 1: hand waved away. The thing with it, too, is like

1144
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 1: it's not even really clear what you're getting. Yeah, there's

1145
00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:38,759
Speaker 1: like contradictory information about what it's going to be, what

1146
00:56:38,760 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 1: it's going to mean, how it's going to be treated.

1147
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:45,239
Speaker 1: There's indications that it's gonna, you know, help you in

1148
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:48,120
Speaker 1: terms of having your tweet shown or showing up in

1149
00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 1: the replies, which again takes away from the idea that

1150
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,520
Speaker 1: it should be a neutral platform, which is one of

1151
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:57,320
Speaker 1: the other, you know, more beautiful or more appealing parts

1152
00:56:57,360 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 1: of Twitters. That you can have someone who's I guess celebrity,

1153
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:03,880
Speaker 1: you know, a Bill Gates or an Elon Musk or whatever,

1154
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:08,080
Speaker 1: and that just random X person can potentially get seen

1155
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:10,800
Speaker 1: in the reply, it can potentially interact with those people

1156
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 1: on that platform. So you're possibly undercutting that. It's going

1157
00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 1: to take a hell of a lot of people paying

1158
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 1: eight bucks a month to make up for the advertiser

1159
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:23,080
Speaker 1: revenue that you've lost. And ultimately, you know, with regard

1160
00:57:23,120 --> 00:57:25,080
Speaker 1: to the blue check, like the blue check did end

1161
00:57:25,160 --> 00:57:29,080
Speaker 1: up being this sort of like you know, weird like class. Yeah,

1162
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:32,160
Speaker 1: the blue check system was not implemented well. In reality,

1163
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 1: there should have been a lot more blue checks where

1164
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 1: people's identities are verified. That would have actually contributed to

1165
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:44,720
Speaker 1: a better ecosystem on the platform. But that's not profitable,

1166
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:47,240
Speaker 1: that's not monetizing what you have there, So that's why

1167
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 1: they're moving in the opposite direction. So not a good move.

1168
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:52,200
Speaker 1: Let me put it this way, which is that verification

1169
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:55,000
Speaker 1: for pay is not a bad scheme, it's just that

1170
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:57,760
Speaker 1: it shouldn't be all verification. So I actually saw an

1171
00:57:57,800 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 1: interesting graphic that some people are flow with different types

1172
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 1: of blue checks, right, So you have like the journalist check,

1173
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:05,480
Speaker 1: then you have like the paid check, then you have

1174
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:07,560
Speaker 1: like a government officials. It's like a tear, like a

1175
00:58:07,560 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 1: different color check mark. And I was like, well, that's

1176
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:11,480
Speaker 1: actually not a bad idea. The point is that if

1177
00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:13,880
Speaker 1: you actually want to increase the reliability of information on

1178
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:15,960
Speaker 1: the platform, making it so that you have to second

1179
00:58:15,960 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 1: guess whether or not it's actually the person who's tweeting

1180
00:58:18,240 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 1: is actually very bad. And so once again, I mean,

1181
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:22,720
Speaker 1: I'll just get to like, what's the value. The value

1182
00:58:22,760 --> 00:58:25,680
Speaker 1: is the ability for a hyper group of point one

1183
00:58:25,720 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 1: percent users in order to reach basically nine to nine

1184
00:58:28,160 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 1: zero point nine. It turns out that doing it via

1185
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:33,520
Speaker 1: ads is not that great, but doing it via being

1186
00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 1: able to access the following on the platform that's worth

1187
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:39,960
Speaker 1: something to some people. So look, if anything, like I

1188
00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:42,840
Speaker 1: said at the beginning, he has shown a proven ability

1189
00:58:42,880 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 1: to be nimble personally, I think this is gonna flop.

1190
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:46,240
Speaker 1: I do not think it's gonna make a lot of money,

1191
00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 1: because if it only makes as you said, they have

1192
00:58:48,760 --> 00:58:52,400
Speaker 1: five billion in revenue eighty nine percent in twenty twenty one.

1193
00:58:52,880 --> 00:58:55,720
Speaker 1: So that means that if we have a massive cut

1194
00:58:55,720 --> 00:58:58,760
Speaker 1: of advertisers, let's call it one or two billion, you

1195
00:58:58,840 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 1: need to sell hundreds of thousands of subscriptions at eight

1196
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 1: dollars a month in order to make that up. Disney

1197
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 1: is able to do that because they have one hundred

1198
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:13,360
Speaker 1: years of Disney's IP catalog. Netflix is able to do

1199
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 1: that basically because they were first to market. Ask Paramount,

1200
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:20,240
Speaker 1: Polus and Peacock how they're doing, Yeah, and n plus

1201
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:23,280
Speaker 1: for really subscription a month? How did all that work out?

1202
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:25,600
Speaker 1: So this shit is hard? Yeah, you know, like we're

1203
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,080
Speaker 1: small business, so we don't have to reach that level

1204
00:59:28,080 --> 00:59:30,560
Speaker 1: of scale. But if you are a multi billion dollar company,

1205
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:33,120
Speaker 1: like that's a whole other ballgame. Yeah, of subscriptions that

1206
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:35,120
Speaker 1: you need to see. And again to my point about

1207
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:40,040
Speaker 1: how the information about this has been contradictory, Elon himself

1208
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 1: spoke a little bit about what the new blue check

1209
00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 1: is ultimately going to mean in terms of how your

1210
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 1: content is viewed on the platform. Let's take a listen

1211
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:50,320
Speaker 1: to what you have to say the net effect will

1212
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 1: be over time that the de verified users will be

1213
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:58,480
Speaker 1: will pretty much always be at the top of comments

1214
00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:01,440
Speaker 1: and search, and you wantt really see you have to

1215
01:00:01,480 --> 01:00:04,960
Speaker 1: scroll far to see the unverified users. So you have

1216
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:09,560
Speaker 1: to scroll far to see the unverified users. So I mean, listen,

1217
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:12,640
Speaker 1: if Elon makes it so that the only way your

1218
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:15,560
Speaker 1: tweets and your replies get seen, yeah, that makes it

1219
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 1: a clear value add for people. But that's in direct

1220
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:24,160
Speaker 1: opposition to your stated free speech goals of the platform,

1221
01:00:24,560 --> 01:00:27,560
Speaker 1: And to me, that really just underscores the fact that

1222
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 1: you can either have your free speech values driven play

1223
01:00:31,320 --> 01:00:34,440
Speaker 1: or you can have a profit making play, and the

1224
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 1: two things cannot really coexist. And it's obviously really clear

1225
01:00:39,000 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 1: what direction he's going to go, and he's going to

1226
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:43,360
Speaker 1: go in the business stret just like all of these platforms,

1227
01:00:43,400 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 1: ultimately make the justifications and make the decisions that they

1228
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:49,959
Speaker 1: have to to try to make their thing profitable. Maybe

1229
01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:52,320
Speaker 1: I'm crazy, but if you instituted kind of what I've

1230
01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 1: talked about, an enterprise tier to follow type system for access,

1231
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 1: but a level playing field in Wikipedia, I actually wonder

1232
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:01,520
Speaker 1: if people might if you're like, hey, listen, we have

1233
01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:03,440
Speaker 1: a commitment here. We could make money by doing all

1234
01:01:03,440 --> 01:01:05,320
Speaker 1: this album, but we're not you know, go ahead and

1235
01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 1: pay X amount of month. I'm not so sure that

1236
01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:09,280
Speaker 1: I wouldn't pay for that in order to support that,

1237
01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 1: But we find that in the overwhelming amount of subscriptions

1238
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 1: that we sell for our premium subscriptions. So look, I

1239
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:16,479
Speaker 1: don't know. I think if you throw it to people

1240
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:18,680
Speaker 1: and you're like, hey, do you like the idea of

1241
01:01:18,760 --> 01:01:21,360
Speaker 1: having a business that's not at the whims of censorship

1242
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:24,320
Speaker 1: and you can have even tiered levels of subscription, like,

1243
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:27,000
Speaker 1: it's very possible to work. That's actually a very interesting

1244
01:01:27,080 --> 01:01:30,200
Speaker 1: insight of what people might be willing to play for. Yeah,

1245
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:32,880
Speaker 1: to pay for is like, oh, I actually am invested

1246
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:34,960
Speaker 1: in this project, and this is like a value driven

1247
01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:37,640
Speaker 1: I mean, the fact that he's a billionaire and the

1248
01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:40,120
Speaker 1: fact that you know, as a profit may like it

1249
01:01:40,200 --> 01:01:44,400
Speaker 1: is a little bit more complicated than us media startup

1250
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 1: and people feeling like I want to build this thing

1251
01:01:46,360 --> 01:01:48,560
Speaker 1: from scratch. But I do think you probably have a

1252
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:52,439
Speaker 1: better pitch if it was value driven and you could

1253
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:56,000
Speaker 1: see really clearly the way that they're leaving dollars on

1254
01:01:56,040 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 1: the table to stay true to the values. But then,

1255
01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:02,240
Speaker 1: you know, how are you big bank lenders get to

1256
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:05,960
Speaker 1: feel about that? Yeah, play, yeah, well that's all the

1257
01:02:06,000 --> 01:02:09,800
Speaker 1: perils of big business. Indeed, indeed, all right, some big

1258
01:02:09,840 --> 01:02:12,760
Speaker 1: developments actually in terms of Ukraine, let's go ahead and

1259
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,240
Speaker 1: put this first piece up on the screen. This from

1260
01:02:15,280 --> 01:02:17,240
Speaker 1: the Washington Post. They say they have a scoop that

1261
01:02:17,280 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 1: the Biden administration is actually privately encouraging Ukraine's leaders to

1262
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:24,000
Speaker 1: signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their

1263
01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 1: public refusal refusal to engage in peace talks and less

1264
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 1: Putin is removed from power. I mean, you guys might

1265
01:02:30,760 --> 01:02:34,200
Speaker 1: recall the trajectory of this. Early in the war, Zelensky

1266
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 1: was much more open, sort of floating negotiations, even floating

1267
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 1: some of what they might be willing to compromise on.

1268
01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:43,440
Speaker 1: And then, you know, frankly, understandably, given the level of

1269
01:02:43,480 --> 01:02:47,680
Speaker 1: atrocities and the level of conflict and death and tax

1270
01:02:47,720 --> 01:02:50,280
Speaker 1: on infrastructure and all of those sorts of things, he's

1271
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 1: really closed the door and said absolutely not not as

1272
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:56,160
Speaker 1: long as Putin is in power. And also, by the way,

1273
01:02:56,320 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 1: we want to not just you know, retake the parts

1274
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 1: of Ukraine were really firmly in our control before this invasion.

1275
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:05,200
Speaker 1: But we want Crimea back, we want the entire East back,

1276
01:03:05,200 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 1: and so his position is really hardened. There were no

1277
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:12,000
Speaker 1: indications that the Biden administration was pushing them to sort

1278
01:03:12,000 --> 01:03:16,520
Speaker 1: of soften that even rhetoric whatsoever, even as you know,

1279
01:03:16,840 --> 01:03:19,840
Speaker 1: ultimately this is an incredibly dangerous situation, as we've laid

1280
01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:22,200
Speaker 1: out a million times here at this point, if it's

1281
01:03:22,240 --> 01:03:24,160
Speaker 1: going to end, there's going to have to be some

1282
01:03:24,200 --> 01:03:26,520
Speaker 1: sort of ceasefire negotiation, There's going to have to be

1283
01:03:26,560 --> 01:03:29,840
Speaker 1: some sort of diplomacy. It also comes on the heels,

1284
01:03:29,880 --> 01:03:34,040
Speaker 1: of course, of the faded letter, the ill fated I

1285
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:38,480
Speaker 1: guess letter from the Progressive Caucus, where they, in the

1286
01:03:38,520 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 1: mildest possible language, floated that maybe possibly at some point,

1287
01:03:43,920 --> 01:03:46,800
Speaker 1: with the consent of the Ukrainians, considering diplomacy would be

1288
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:50,200
Speaker 1: a good IDEA total freak out online about how this

1289
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:52,360
Speaker 1: was horrible and you're stabbing Ukraine in the back and

1290
01:03:52,400 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 1: you're putent apologist and you're aligned with the Kremlin and

1291
01:03:55,080 --> 01:03:57,920
Speaker 1: all of this. They immediately retract it. Well, now it

1292
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:01,520
Speaker 1: turns out that their letter is actually literally just what

1293
01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:04,600
Speaker 1: the Biden administration policy already appears to be. Yeah, I

1294
01:04:04,640 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 1: think that's very well said. Also with the breaking news

1295
01:04:07,880 --> 01:04:11,720
Speaker 1: actually Crystal that these White House officials were having some

1296
01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:15,360
Speaker 1: undisclosed talks with Putin that almost frankly might be the

1297
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:17,720
Speaker 1: most significant. Let's put this up there on the screen.

1298
01:04:17,800 --> 01:04:21,040
Speaker 1: Jake Sullivan actually has been having these confidential discussions with

1299
01:04:21,120 --> 01:04:25,520
Speaker 1: Russian counterparts. Now according to them, it has not been

1300
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:30,880
Speaker 1: over Ukraine. It's been over nuclear threats about escalation. But

1301
01:04:31,320 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 1: this is an incredibly welcome development because what is something

1302
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 1: that we kept underscoring during the whole nucle We're like,

1303
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:38,200
Speaker 1: we need to talk. The whole lesson of the human

1304
01:04:38,240 --> 01:04:40,840
Speaker 1: missile crisis was have the hotline so that we never

1305
01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:44,000
Speaker 1: have of this level of confusion ever again. And all

1306
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:46,040
Speaker 1: the leaks that were coming out in some of the

1307
01:04:46,080 --> 01:04:49,440
Speaker 1: hottest rhetoric during the nuclear threats from the Russians was

1308
01:04:49,520 --> 01:04:53,040
Speaker 1: that there's no bilateral dialogue. So it seems that the

1309
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:56,800
Speaker 1: I think clearly the dam broke in the Biden administration.

1310
01:04:57,040 --> 01:05:00,000
Speaker 1: They're looking down at a possible GOP victory in the House,

1311
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:02,160
Speaker 1: where Kevin McCarthy has already said we're not going to

1312
01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:04,840
Speaker 1: pass nearly the amount of same of Ukraine AID. It's

1313
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:07,439
Speaker 1: not a guarantee that they passed the sixty billion extra

1314
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:10,000
Speaker 1: in Ukraine AID that they want to in the lame Duck.

1315
01:05:10,280 --> 01:05:12,920
Speaker 1: So they're like, well, our hands are going to be

1316
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:15,400
Speaker 1: very different in the next couple of months. At the

1317
01:05:15,440 --> 01:05:19,080
Speaker 1: same time, the Ukrainians are reaching the limits possibly of

1318
01:05:19,120 --> 01:05:22,919
Speaker 1: their battlefield victory. I said, possibly. You know, they've had

1319
01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:26,240
Speaker 1: stunning victories. We don't know, we have nuclear threats. The

1320
01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:30,240
Speaker 1: American public is afraid. Inflation is sky high across here

1321
01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 1: in Europe, and you know, it's not like the situation

1322
01:05:32,760 --> 01:05:34,920
Speaker 1: in Kiev is all that great. We're going to talk

1323
01:05:34,920 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 1: about it in a little bit, So now is the time.

1324
01:05:37,560 --> 01:05:39,880
Speaker 1: And what we were saying is that by giving the

1325
01:05:39,960 --> 01:05:42,960
Speaker 1: Ukrainians basically a blank check and saying you can prosecute

1326
01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:45,440
Speaker 1: this till the end of time, even if whenever it

1327
01:05:45,480 --> 01:05:48,040
Speaker 1: comes to hurt our own core strategic interest, that's always

1328
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:50,520
Speaker 1: been my objection. Yeah, And so to see them engaging

1329
01:05:50,520 --> 01:05:53,680
Speaker 1: in talks, possibly behind the scenes, nudging them in the

1330
01:05:53,760 --> 01:05:57,280
Speaker 1: right way, I think that's great. Will does the Lenskate listen? Honestly,

1331
01:05:57,320 --> 01:05:59,840
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I don't think you will listen.

1332
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 1: The Ukrainian population, or at least the one and the

1333
01:06:02,600 --> 01:06:05,520
Speaker 1: ones in the West, they're not there right now. N Zelensky,

1334
01:06:06,040 --> 01:06:08,800
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say is kind because I think he's done

1335
01:06:08,800 --> 01:06:12,560
Speaker 1: good for his own people. But like his bravado and

1336
01:06:12,600 --> 01:06:15,080
Speaker 1: the way he talks with the West, and really the

1337
01:06:15,200 --> 01:06:18,160
Speaker 1: level of which he admonishes anyone who doesn't want to

1338
01:06:18,160 --> 01:06:20,280
Speaker 1: give him anything that he wants here in the West

1339
01:06:20,320 --> 01:06:22,800
Speaker 1: and all that, Like, what is what is the evidence

1340
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:25,600
Speaker 1: that he actually will listen to any of these private manishments?

1341
01:06:25,680 --> 01:06:29,240
Speaker 1: Well from the Bible, miss is how hard how hardball?

1342
01:06:29,440 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 1: Are the Biden people willing to pay play? Are you

1343
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:35,480
Speaker 1: willing to say, you know, next time you come calling

1344
01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:38,360
Speaker 1: for your next you know, multi ten billions of dollars

1345
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:41,400
Speaker 1: handout to not just for the weapons aid, but for

1346
01:06:41,520 --> 01:06:44,240
Speaker 1: economic aid to fund your government to be able to

1347
01:06:44,280 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 1: continue Ukraine as like a going concern, which they're really

1348
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:51,840
Speaker 1: reliant on our aid in order to do any of that.

1349
01:06:52,360 --> 01:06:54,800
Speaker 1: You know, the answer might be different if you don't

1350
01:06:54,960 --> 01:06:58,520
Speaker 1: change the way that you're even publicly speaking about the

1351
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:02,600
Speaker 1: possibility of negotiations. I personally have no doubt that if

1352
01:07:02,600 --> 01:07:05,440
Speaker 1: the Biden administration was willing to play that kind of hardball.

1353
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 1: You would hear a softening of tone because his fate

1354
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:10,280
Speaker 1: and the fate of the country is so tied to

1355
01:07:10,360 --> 01:07:13,760
Speaker 1: what we here are ultimately willing to do. But you know,

1356
01:07:13,800 --> 01:07:15,920
Speaker 1: I don't know if the bidenministration is really willing to

1357
01:07:16,000 --> 01:07:18,080
Speaker 1: go that hard You know, there are a few things

1358
01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:20,080
Speaker 1: that I think about here that could have kind of

1359
01:07:20,240 --> 01:07:23,280
Speaker 1: led the Biden administration to a bit of like, you know,

1360
01:07:23,640 --> 01:07:26,160
Speaker 1: a different certainly a different approach than what we were

1361
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:28,680
Speaker 1: hearing in the early days of like we don't want

1362
01:07:29,160 --> 01:07:33,280
Speaker 1: negotiations and dispatching Boris Johnson probably to go and tell

1363
01:07:33,360 --> 01:07:36,400
Speaker 1: Zelensky like, no, we don't want diplomacy, we don't want

1364
01:07:36,400 --> 01:07:38,440
Speaker 1: an end to this war. We want to weaken Russia,

1365
01:07:38,560 --> 01:07:40,880
Speaker 1: basically out and out saying that our goal in this

1366
01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:43,959
Speaker 1: whole thing is to overthrow Putin and have regime change

1367
01:07:43,960 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 1: in Russia. This is a very different stance in tone

1368
01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:50,040
Speaker 1: than what we saw in those early days from Biden

1369
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:54,360
Speaker 1: himself and also from Bloyd Austin and other high level officials.

1370
01:07:54,880 --> 01:07:58,160
Speaker 1: You think about the call that was reported with Biden's

1371
01:07:58,240 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 1: Lensky where Biden's very frustratedly basically like lost his temper

1372
01:08:01,720 --> 01:08:04,280
Speaker 1: and yelled at Zelenski over the fact that we're giving

1373
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:06,360
Speaker 1: you all this aid and then you immediately turn around

1374
01:08:06,400 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 1: and asked for even more, even more, even more. It's

1375
01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:11,400
Speaker 1: never enough, and you're basically ungrateful. So look, that may

1376
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:14,720
Speaker 1: sound petty, but the sort of personality conflicts, especially for

1377
01:08:14,800 --> 01:08:17,600
Speaker 1: a player like Biden who was not unlike Trump and

1378
01:08:17,640 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 1: that he's kind of a gut player on foreign policy front,

1379
01:08:20,680 --> 01:08:23,160
Speaker 1: that makes a difference. And then I also have to think,

1380
01:08:23,360 --> 01:08:27,519
Speaker 1: you know, the revelations that the Ukrainians were involved in

1381
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:32,000
Speaker 1: that fire bombing in Moscow, like you're freelancing murder, assassinating

1382
01:08:32,040 --> 01:08:35,080
Speaker 1: private citizens in Russia. What the hell are you doing?

1383
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:40,439
Speaker 1: Even the Crimean bridge explosion, which you know, the best

1384
01:08:40,479 --> 01:08:43,519
Speaker 1: indications are this was like a truck bomb that you know,

1385
01:08:43,560 --> 01:08:47,000
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians were able to blow up the Crimean bridge.

1386
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:49,519
Speaker 1: This is a legitimate military target. I'm not saying that

1387
01:08:49,600 --> 01:08:51,840
Speaker 1: it's not. But Crimea is a different deal than the

1388
01:08:51,880 --> 01:08:54,920
Speaker 1: rest of Ukraine. And that also was very provocative, very asculatory,

1389
01:08:54,920 --> 01:08:57,600
Speaker 1: and that's when we saw the height of the you know,

1390
01:08:57,680 --> 01:09:02,120
Speaker 1: the worst rhetoric and the worst possibility, a potential nuclear

1391
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 1: you know, nuclear tactical nuclear weapon use. So I feel

1392
01:09:07,160 --> 01:09:09,120
Speaker 1: like and the other piece that I would add to

1393
01:09:09,200 --> 01:09:10,880
Speaker 1: this too is, you know, there are a lot of

1394
01:09:10,880 --> 01:09:14,800
Speaker 1: indications that we actually have had very little insight into

1395
01:09:14,880 --> 01:09:17,360
Speaker 1: what the Ukrainians are planning, how they're prosecuting the war,

1396
01:09:17,439 --> 01:09:19,400
Speaker 1: that we had more intel about what the Russians were

1397
01:09:19,400 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 1: planning to do than what our own allies the Ukrainians

1398
01:09:21,960 --> 01:09:24,000
Speaker 1: were willing to do. I have to think all of

1399
01:09:24,040 --> 01:09:26,200
Speaker 1: this has led to the Biden administration saying, you know what,

1400
01:09:26,200 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 1: we need to make a bit of a pivot. You're

1401
01:09:27,479 --> 01:09:30,839
Speaker 1: absolutely correct. And also poll came out ABC News Washington

1402
01:09:30,880 --> 01:09:33,519
Speaker 1: Post poll fifty something percent of GOP voters now say

1403
01:09:33,520 --> 01:09:35,600
Speaker 1: we're giving too much aid to Ukraine. That number was

1404
01:09:35,720 --> 01:09:40,240
Speaker 1: six back in March. So consider that a complete flip

1405
01:09:40,520 --> 01:09:43,000
Speaker 1: in the way that GOP voters are considering it. And

1406
01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:45,400
Speaker 1: those people are now going to be in power. So

1407
01:09:45,560 --> 01:09:48,639
Speaker 1: I think that that, more than anything, also could impact

1408
01:09:48,840 --> 01:09:50,280
Speaker 1: the way that they I mean, they're not stupid. They

1409
01:09:50,320 --> 01:09:52,360
Speaker 1: have to look at unified government as going away, which

1410
01:09:52,360 --> 01:09:54,080
Speaker 1: means that you're going to have to make very very

1411
01:09:54,120 --> 01:09:57,200
Speaker 1: different choices whenever you reliant on a very compliant Congress. Well,

1412
01:09:57,200 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 1: and it's it also I mean in the sense I

1413
01:09:59,560 --> 01:10:02,439
Speaker 1: know Biden wants Democrats to hold onto control of the

1414
01:10:02,479 --> 01:10:05,240
Speaker 1: House and the Senate, but it actually gives him a

1415
01:10:05,280 --> 01:10:09,280
Speaker 1: bit of a point of leverage. Ohto Lensky, whether the

1416
01:10:09,320 --> 01:10:11,840
Speaker 1: Republicans are ultimately full of show, which they probably are

1417
01:10:11,960 --> 01:10:15,519
Speaker 1: or not. You can Hey, the incoming likely speaker of

1418
01:10:15,520 --> 01:10:18,439
Speaker 1: the House says he's done, and look at this poll.

1419
01:10:19,000 --> 01:10:20,840
Speaker 1: My population is shifting. So you're going to have to

1420
01:10:20,840 --> 01:10:23,479
Speaker 1: work with me here otherwise you can't count on this,

1421
01:10:23,640 --> 01:10:27,200
Speaker 1: you know, just continued consistent shipment of weapons and aids,

1422
01:10:27,200 --> 01:10:30,240
Speaker 1: so that has probably strengthened his hand in some of

1423
01:10:30,280 --> 01:10:33,400
Speaker 1: these negotiations. The other piece that we wanted to bring

1424
01:10:33,439 --> 01:10:35,639
Speaker 1: you is, you know, I mean the situation throughout Ukraine

1425
01:10:35,680 --> 01:10:38,559
Speaker 1: and not just in the Eastern you know, other regions

1426
01:10:38,600 --> 01:10:42,599
Speaker 1: is quite quite dire and quite frightening for the residents there.

1427
01:10:42,680 --> 01:10:44,000
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this up on the screen.

1428
01:10:44,439 --> 01:10:48,120
Speaker 1: Kiev is actually planning for a potential total evacuation if

1429
01:10:48,160 --> 01:10:52,040
Speaker 1: they lose electricity cities, also establishing a thousand heating centers

1430
01:10:52,360 --> 01:10:55,280
Speaker 1: for its three million residents. As Russia pounds away at

1431
01:10:55,320 --> 01:10:59,120
Speaker 1: civilian targets, they say they're struggling to maintain an electricity

1432
01:10:59,120 --> 01:11:03,040
Speaker 1: grid that's been heavily damaged by Russian missiles. They've started

1433
01:11:03,040 --> 01:11:06,400
Speaker 1: planning for what they describe as a once unthinkable possibility,

1434
01:11:06,439 --> 01:11:10,360
Speaker 1: a complete blackout that would require the evacuation of the

1435
01:11:10,400 --> 01:11:15,400
Speaker 1: city's three million remaining residents. The situation is already quite bad.

1436
01:11:15,520 --> 01:11:19,280
Speaker 1: They have forty percent of Ukraine's energy infrastructure damaged or destroyed.

1437
01:11:19,560 --> 01:11:23,320
Speaker 1: Municipal workers are setting up heating shelters, but they lack

1438
01:11:23,439 --> 01:11:26,320
Speaker 1: a lot of the needed equipment at this point, and

1439
01:11:26,439 --> 01:11:28,200
Speaker 1: to try to keep the grid from falling all together,

1440
01:11:28,280 --> 01:11:30,920
Speaker 1: Ukraine's National Energy Utility set on Saturday it would continue

1441
01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:35,080
Speaker 1: to impose rolling blackouts in seven regions. And y'all, it

1442
01:11:35,200 --> 01:11:38,040
Speaker 1: is getting cold in Ukraine and it is only set

1443
01:11:38,160 --> 01:11:40,400
Speaker 1: to get colder. Yeah, I mean, look right now when

1444
01:11:40,439 --> 01:11:44,040
Speaker 1: we're recording this, it's forty four degrees. It's the low

1445
01:11:44,280 --> 01:11:47,240
Speaker 1: is thirty nine. That's actually a little bit warm from

1446
01:11:47,240 --> 01:11:50,040
Speaker 1: what I've read. As we said, in general, the average

1447
01:11:50,080 --> 01:11:53,759
Speaker 1: temperature does not go above the thirties from November fifteenth

1448
01:11:53,840 --> 01:11:57,400
Speaker 1: until March, so they have four straight months of cold.

1449
01:11:57,479 --> 01:12:00,880
Speaker 1: Zelenski was actually warning just this morning, Chrystal, this is

1450
01:12:00,880 --> 01:12:03,799
Speaker 1: the major news, which is he says the power outages

1451
01:12:04,040 --> 01:12:07,679
Speaker 1: have no sign He keeps warning that major infrastructure attacks

1452
01:12:07,880 --> 01:12:10,479
Speaker 1: on Kiev are going to continue. So I think this

1453
01:12:10,560 --> 01:12:12,640
Speaker 1: evacuation plan is not a joke. I think that the

1454
01:12:12,720 --> 01:12:15,160
Speaker 1: Russians are waiting for exactly the right time to strike.

1455
01:12:15,479 --> 01:12:17,559
Speaker 1: And look, this actually fits very much in what they

1456
01:12:17,560 --> 01:12:20,920
Speaker 1: are capable of. They have terrible battlefield advance Their troops

1457
01:12:20,920 --> 01:12:23,960
Speaker 1: are mostly conscripts. They don't have the ability to launch

1458
01:12:24,120 --> 01:12:27,120
Speaker 1: a full scale like combined arms offensive. So what do

1459
01:12:27,160 --> 01:12:30,000
Speaker 1: you do. You have superior technology and you use the

1460
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:32,040
Speaker 1: hell out of it against the enemy center of gravity,

1461
01:12:32,160 --> 01:12:34,960
Speaker 1: which is the capital where they run everything, a symbol

1462
01:12:35,120 --> 01:12:38,400
Speaker 1: of Ukrainian resistance and to have to evacuate your capital

1463
01:12:38,400 --> 01:12:40,080
Speaker 1: city in the middle of a war would be a

1464
01:12:40,080 --> 01:12:43,880
Speaker 1: massive emotional blow. Getting really, there's no getting wrong. And

1465
01:12:43,960 --> 01:12:47,320
Speaker 1: I mean these are designed to undercut the will to

1466
01:12:47,400 --> 01:12:50,960
Speaker 1: continue fighting. And we actually saw we saw a poll

1467
01:12:51,000 --> 01:12:53,760
Speaker 1: that we didn't actually end up showing it on the

1468
01:12:54,040 --> 01:12:58,640
Speaker 1: on the program right of Ukrainians and by region, you

1469
01:12:58,680 --> 01:13:01,040
Speaker 1: know what they want? Are they in it? Like, no

1470
01:13:01,120 --> 01:13:03,320
Speaker 1: matter what, We're going to take all the territory back.

1471
01:13:03,360 --> 01:13:05,840
Speaker 1: And in the eastern places like Keeve, that is very

1472
01:13:05,960 --> 01:13:08,920
Speaker 1: much overwhelmingly in the sentiment the places that have been

1473
01:13:08,960 --> 01:13:11,519
Speaker 1: at war and have been living with this for years.

1474
01:13:11,560 --> 01:13:14,479
Speaker 1: At this point, there's a much more complex picture there.

1475
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:18,320
Speaker 1: And so the gamble from Moscow is basically like, and

1476
01:13:18,360 --> 01:13:20,280
Speaker 1: they don't have a lot of great hands to play

1477
01:13:20,280 --> 01:13:22,120
Speaker 1: at this point, is like, we're going to wear down

1478
01:13:22,160 --> 01:13:25,240
Speaker 1: this population so that they're willing to come to the

1479
01:13:25,280 --> 01:13:28,040
Speaker 1: table and open to some sort of and you know,

1480
01:13:28,280 --> 01:13:31,040
Speaker 1: end to this war. That's what they want to do,

1481
01:13:31,200 --> 01:13:33,280
Speaker 1: is to undercut the will to fight. Will it work,

1482
01:13:33,320 --> 01:13:35,320
Speaker 1: I don't know, but it's not crazy to think that

1483
01:13:35,400 --> 01:13:38,439
Speaker 1: when people are facing you know, elderly people facing a

1484
01:13:38,439 --> 01:13:42,120
Speaker 1: long winter freezing, that you become willing to accept things

1485
01:13:42,120 --> 01:13:44,320
Speaker 1: that maybe, you know, when things were going better, you

1486
01:13:44,320 --> 01:13:46,439
Speaker 1: weren't really willing to accept. Well. See, and it's a

1487
01:13:46,439 --> 01:13:48,600
Speaker 1: time honor tradition now of total war. You have to

1488
01:13:48,640 --> 01:13:51,639
Speaker 1: go after, you know, the enemy's civilian infrastructure. It's something

1489
01:13:51,720 --> 01:13:54,840
Speaker 1: that's certainly going to happen. And whether it will break

1490
01:13:54,880 --> 01:13:57,160
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian will or not, I don't. I don't think

1491
01:13:57,200 --> 01:13:59,439
Speaker 1: it necessarily will, but it will inflict chaos on the

1492
01:13:59,479 --> 01:14:02,040
Speaker 1: life of million. Yeah, that's where no doubt about it. Focus,

1493
01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:04,840
Speaker 1: there's kids, you know, people, the old people die whenever

1494
01:14:04,880 --> 01:14:07,400
Speaker 1: your power outages your hospitals, I see, you know, all

1495
01:14:07,400 --> 01:14:09,479
Speaker 1: these things just go blank and a lot a lot

1496
01:14:09,520 --> 01:14:11,720
Speaker 1: of people will die as a result of this, which

1497
01:14:11,800 --> 01:14:15,240
Speaker 1: is just really sir, perfect Okay, all right, last little piece.

1498
01:14:15,280 --> 01:14:17,600
Speaker 1: We wanted to bring you here before we get our monologue.

1499
01:14:17,680 --> 01:14:20,479
Speaker 1: So there's already a lot of finger pointing going on

1500
01:14:20,520 --> 01:14:23,800
Speaker 1: in cable news. Who's to blame what went wrong? And

1501
01:14:23,840 --> 01:14:27,439
Speaker 1: of course soccer, Yes, the Democrats can never fail. They

1502
01:14:27,439 --> 01:14:31,200
Speaker 1: can only be failed, right, And so Joey read over

1503
01:14:31,280 --> 01:14:35,519
Speaker 1: on MSMB MSBC had an interesting explanation of what exactly

1504
01:14:35,560 --> 01:14:37,880
Speaker 1: has gone wrong in this election cycle. Take a listen.

1505
01:14:38,200 --> 01:14:40,599
Speaker 1: But people I ever heard here use the word inflation

1506
01:14:41,120 --> 01:14:45,920
Speaker 1: are journalists and economists, right, So that is not part

1507
01:14:45,960 --> 01:14:49,320
Speaker 1: of the normal lexicon of the way people talk. So

1508
01:14:49,360 --> 01:14:52,519
Speaker 1: it's interesting that Republicans are doing something they don't normally do, right,

1509
01:14:52,600 --> 01:14:55,679
Speaker 1: which is not used the common tongue, right, not used,

1510
01:14:55,680 --> 01:14:57,759
Speaker 1: just common English to sort of use do on their campaigns,

1511
01:14:57,800 --> 01:15:00,200
Speaker 1: like they're doing with prime. But what they've done is

1512
01:15:00,200 --> 01:15:03,320
Speaker 1: they've taught people the word inflation. Right. Most people who

1513
01:15:03,479 --> 01:15:05,280
Speaker 1: have never used that word ever in their lives, are

1514
01:15:05,400 --> 01:15:08,840
Speaker 1: using it now because they've been taught it, including on TV,

1515
01:15:09,160 --> 01:15:13,000
Speaker 1: including in newspapers. They've been taught this word, and they

1516
01:15:13,080 --> 01:15:15,600
Speaker 1: sort of wrap this word around whatever it is that

1517
01:15:15,640 --> 01:15:19,680
Speaker 1: they really want to vote. Okay, yes, people who you

1518
01:15:19,800 --> 01:15:23,000
Speaker 1: had no idea what inflation was before the Republicans. So

1519
01:15:23,040 --> 01:15:25,479
Speaker 1: the boomers who lived through the nineteen seventies have never

1520
01:15:25,520 --> 01:15:28,000
Speaker 1: worn the name inflation. The gen Xers who also were

1521
01:15:28,040 --> 01:15:30,280
Speaker 1: in the nineteen seventies never heard their parents use the

1522
01:15:30,280 --> 01:15:32,400
Speaker 1: word inflation. I wasn't even born in the time of

1523
01:15:32,400 --> 01:15:34,360
Speaker 1: my inflation, and I know with the Norman inflation is

1524
01:15:34,439 --> 01:15:37,160
Speaker 1: so I think people know what the hell is going on. Well,

1525
01:15:37,200 --> 01:15:39,479
Speaker 1: it's just I see this stuff all the time. Yeah.

1526
01:15:39,520 --> 01:15:42,560
Speaker 1: Stacy Abrams says that she might lose because of misinformation

1527
01:15:42,640 --> 01:15:46,559
Speaker 1: amongst black men. That's it misinformation. Maybe you suck. I mean,

1528
01:15:46,560 --> 01:15:49,760
Speaker 1: it's just like, why is it always the fault of

1529
01:15:49,800 --> 01:15:54,880
Speaker 1: the voters for misusing or mislearning the term inflation. It's

1530
01:15:54,920 --> 01:15:57,519
Speaker 1: a technical term. You don't have to like it. You

1531
01:15:57,560 --> 01:16:00,240
Speaker 1: can contest it if you would like. Yeah, well, with

1532
01:16:00,920 --> 01:16:04,680
Speaker 1: there's been a whole narrative in you know, on the

1533
01:16:04,720 --> 01:16:08,200
Speaker 1: twitters and in the in the ecosystem, the media ecosystem

1534
01:16:08,280 --> 01:16:11,720
Speaker 1: of like, the media is being too hard on Democrats

1535
01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:14,720
Speaker 1: and the economy. The economy is actually great, and this

1536
01:16:14,840 --> 01:16:17,920
Speaker 1: is like, you know, this is hurting Democrats that you're

1537
01:16:17,960 --> 01:16:21,920
Speaker 1: portraying the economic situation is much worse than it actually is.

1538
01:16:22,200 --> 01:16:24,160
Speaker 1: And look, I don't deny the economy. It's kind of

1539
01:16:24,160 --> 01:16:27,640
Speaker 1: a weird situation because you do have continued low unemployment.

1540
01:16:28,040 --> 01:16:31,640
Speaker 1: But I think it is the height of condescension and

1541
01:16:31,920 --> 01:16:35,280
Speaker 1: contempt to think that people don't know what's going on

1542
01:16:35,439 --> 01:16:37,919
Speaker 1: in their own lives and when they tell you they're struggling,

1543
01:16:37,960 --> 01:16:40,600
Speaker 1: like they mean it. It's not because Republicans had a

1544
01:16:40,640 --> 01:16:43,479
Speaker 1: talking point or the media or whatever. They are able

1545
01:16:43,520 --> 01:16:48,200
Speaker 1: to experience that for themselves. And so you know, I

1546
01:16:48,200 --> 01:16:51,519
Speaker 1: guess this is I certainly have been making the case.

1547
01:16:51,560 --> 01:16:53,360
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders been making the case. There are a few

1548
01:16:53,439 --> 01:16:56,200
Speaker 1: voices out there that are saying, like, hey, maybe y'all

1549
01:16:56,200 --> 01:16:59,080
Speaker 1: should have talked about the economy. This is a way

1550
01:16:59,120 --> 01:17:02,160
Speaker 1: to acknowledge that the economic concerns ended up being a

1551
01:17:02,200 --> 01:17:06,280
Speaker 1: big issue, but also to never cast any blame with

1552
01:17:06,360 --> 01:17:11,240
Speaker 1: the Democrats for failing to offer any affirmative, any explanation

1553
01:17:11,320 --> 01:17:13,920
Speaker 1: for why this was happening, any firm a program that

1554
01:17:13,960 --> 01:17:17,200
Speaker 1: would help people. Instead, it's like, oh, just the Republican

1555
01:17:17,240 --> 01:17:20,360
Speaker 1: media machine taught people the word inflation and that's why

1556
01:17:20,400 --> 01:17:23,960
Speaker 1: we're living. That's again, No, it's not. Or maybe people

1557
01:17:23,960 --> 01:17:26,439
Speaker 1: are like, hey, I would just I love the idea

1558
01:17:26,439 --> 01:17:28,320
Speaker 1: of somebody wh've been like, my groceries are more expensive.

1559
01:17:28,320 --> 01:17:30,720
Speaker 1: What's the name for that? And somebody's a inflation like, No, no,

1560
01:17:30,840 --> 01:17:34,640
Speaker 1: that's a Republican term. It's no, it's it's just more expensive.

1561
01:17:34,880 --> 01:17:38,160
Speaker 1: It is a technical increase in price relative to time.

1562
01:17:38,439 --> 01:17:41,559
Speaker 1: That's it. That's all. We have to consider it as

1563
01:17:41,720 --> 01:17:45,080
Speaker 1: whether it matters and what's the cause that Listen, there's

1564
01:17:45,080 --> 01:17:47,680
Speaker 1: a real debate around that one. That's fun, which we

1565
01:17:47,720 --> 01:17:50,000
Speaker 1: spend a lot of time talking about here on the show.

1566
01:17:50,040 --> 01:17:53,280
Speaker 1: But to deny that it's happening just totally ridiculous. Me again,

1567
01:17:53,360 --> 01:17:56,120
Speaker 1: the same thing. Oh, misinformation is the reason why black

1568
01:17:56,160 --> 01:17:58,880
Speaker 1: men are, you know, moving to Republicans and Latino men.

1569
01:17:59,040 --> 01:18:01,680
Speaker 1: Actually in his I think one of the major if

1570
01:18:01,680 --> 01:18:03,280
Speaker 1: I have to predict, one of our major segments we're

1571
01:18:03,280 --> 01:18:04,840
Speaker 1: going to do on our show is going to be

1572
01:18:05,439 --> 01:18:09,040
Speaker 1: black and Latino men moving in historic degrees to Republicans.

1573
01:18:09,120 --> 01:18:12,200
Speaker 1: There's been a real gender polarization, yes, over the last

1574
01:18:12,400 --> 01:18:16,639
Speaker 1: couple of months, and field Biro in part, which is fascinating. Yeah,

1575
01:18:16,680 --> 01:18:19,320
Speaker 1: you're right. Possible. I don't know though, because it predates it.

1576
01:18:19,320 --> 01:18:24,200
Speaker 1: Maybe the accelerated well yeah, I think it was already printing,

1577
01:18:24,600 --> 01:18:26,479
Speaker 1: But I do think that Royal health to accelerate it.

1578
01:18:26,479 --> 01:18:29,080
Speaker 1: But yeah, the problem for Democrats isn't that people learned

1579
01:18:29,080 --> 01:18:32,760
Speaker 1: what influenced that. The economic reality is not good, and

1580
01:18:32,840 --> 01:18:35,080
Speaker 1: Democrats haven't done a good job explaining what they would

1581
01:18:35,080 --> 01:18:40,439
Speaker 1: do differently. All right, tag already looking at well. As

1582
01:18:40,479 --> 01:18:42,559
Speaker 1: soon as next week, they say Trump may launch his

1583
01:18:42,560 --> 01:18:45,040
Speaker 1: next bid for the presidency, upending our politics in the

1584
01:18:45,080 --> 01:18:47,400
Speaker 1: current dynamic that I'm about to speak about. But it's

1585
01:18:47,400 --> 01:18:50,920
Speaker 1: important this moment in time is never memory hold, because

1586
01:18:50,960 --> 01:18:53,559
Speaker 1: perhaps the day may come in November twenty twenty four

1587
01:18:53,920 --> 01:18:56,720
Speaker 1: or in twenty twenty eight, but Trump eventually will be

1588
01:18:56,760 --> 01:18:59,080
Speaker 1: gone from our lives. The people who he saved last

1589
01:18:59,120 --> 01:19:01,559
Speaker 1: time around will have to confront once again what their

1590
01:19:01,600 --> 01:19:04,760
Speaker 1: lives really did look like without him. This week is

1591
01:19:04,880 --> 01:19:07,640
Speaker 1: kind of perfect last week without Trump. To consider the

1592
01:19:07,680 --> 01:19:11,000
Speaker 1: state of our news business. In the span of seventy

1593
01:19:11,040 --> 01:19:14,400
Speaker 1: two hours, three of the major networks announced major cuts

1594
01:19:14,439 --> 01:19:18,040
Speaker 1: across the board, revealing how pathetic their underlying business and

1595
01:19:18,120 --> 01:19:21,519
Speaker 1: viewership really is. Each of these instances, in their own

1596
01:19:21,600 --> 01:19:23,960
Speaker 1: right tells us a lot about how much our culture

1597
01:19:23,960 --> 01:19:26,559
Speaker 1: and population has changed, and how little trust that these

1598
01:19:26,600 --> 01:19:30,000
Speaker 1: major networks are tained. Let's start with Shepherd Smith. Got

1599
01:19:30,000 --> 01:19:32,280
Speaker 1: to say this. I got nothing against the man. He

1600
01:19:32,320 --> 01:19:34,880
Speaker 1: was actually good at Fox News, only at breaking news.

1601
01:19:34,960 --> 01:19:37,320
Speaker 1: But when he dramatically left the network in twenty nineteen,

1602
01:19:37,560 --> 01:19:40,720
Speaker 1: it was considered a major shock. He effectively anchored the

1603
01:19:40,760 --> 01:19:43,800
Speaker 1: breaking news credibility of the Fox News brand. Smith was

1604
01:19:43,800 --> 01:19:47,599
Speaker 1: paid some twenty million dollars a year, considered an essential

1605
01:19:47,640 --> 01:19:51,160
Speaker 1: person with a lot of credibility, and then something interesting happened.

1606
01:19:51,240 --> 01:19:53,840
Speaker 1: He was picked up by CNBC under the presumption he

1607
01:19:53,880 --> 01:19:55,880
Speaker 1: has a ton of credibility, he'll add a lot to

1608
01:19:55,920 --> 01:19:59,280
Speaker 1: the brand. He debuted a primetime show in September twenty twenty.

1609
01:19:59,479 --> 01:20:03,920
Speaker 1: What happened, absolutely nobody cared. It turned out Smith wasn't

1610
01:20:03,960 --> 01:20:06,120
Speaker 1: nearly as powerful as people thought he was. He didn't

1611
01:20:06,160 --> 01:20:08,160
Speaker 1: really have an audience. He was just good at narrating

1612
01:20:08,240 --> 01:20:10,120
Speaker 1: a car chase or whatever to do in the event

1613
01:20:10,200 --> 01:20:13,200
Speaker 1: of a hurricane. His low rated show flopped from the beginning,

1614
01:20:13,280 --> 01:20:15,600
Speaker 1: becoming effectively irrelevant in the two years that it was

1615
01:20:15,640 --> 01:20:17,800
Speaker 1: on the air. Even when it was canceled. The only

1616
01:20:17,840 --> 01:20:20,360
Speaker 1: thing noteworthy about it was that it was finally canceled.

1617
01:20:20,600 --> 01:20:22,840
Speaker 1: So why is that important? Because it shows that the

1618
01:20:22,880 --> 01:20:25,840
Speaker 1: so called stars really aren't stars at all. Their high

1619
01:20:25,880 --> 01:20:29,200
Speaker 1: paychecks more reflect insane market dynamics of a dying business

1620
01:20:29,439 --> 01:20:31,960
Speaker 1: that are than they are any worth to actually bringing

1621
01:20:32,240 --> 01:20:35,240
Speaker 1: real people's lives. Next on the list is a funny

1622
01:20:35,280 --> 01:20:39,400
Speaker 1: one too. Tiffany Cross, straight up canceled on MSNBC. Cross

1623
01:20:39,400 --> 01:20:42,000
Speaker 1: Too was a great example of the dying cable news business.

1624
01:20:42,160 --> 01:20:44,320
Speaker 1: Cross is just a racial shock jock in the mold

1625
01:20:44,360 --> 01:20:46,400
Speaker 1: of joy read just not as good at it says

1626
01:20:46,400 --> 01:20:48,760
Speaker 1: incendiary things about aw awful and racist America is she

1627
01:20:48,800 --> 01:20:51,080
Speaker 1: gets paid big bucks to do it. She hosted a

1628
01:20:51,080 --> 01:20:55,000
Speaker 1: Saturday show called cross Talk, actually on cable, but more importantly,

1629
01:20:55,240 --> 01:20:58,519
Speaker 1: she hosted an online show on Peacock TV. Now most

1630
01:20:58,520 --> 01:21:01,120
Speaker 1: of you know Peacock for the Office or for Yellowstone,

1631
01:21:01,200 --> 01:21:03,920
Speaker 1: but don't forget. NBC also was trying to figure out

1632
01:21:03,920 --> 01:21:06,800
Speaker 1: how to make streaming news work on their platform. They

1633
01:21:06,920 --> 01:21:09,960
Speaker 1: hired Meddie Hassen Cross in a bid to compete with

1634
01:21:10,040 --> 01:21:13,759
Speaker 1: shows like Hours and appeal to younger people. They cross

1635
01:21:13,840 --> 01:21:16,519
Speaker 1: promote their online shows on the major news channel in

1636
01:21:16,560 --> 01:21:18,880
Speaker 1: the hopes that people will come over. But guess what,

1637
01:21:19,200 --> 01:21:21,759
Speaker 1: it didn't work out, did it. NBC has never released

1638
01:21:21,760 --> 01:21:24,479
Speaker 1: the numbers for Peacock shows, but considering the Cross left

1639
01:21:24,479 --> 01:21:27,080
Speaker 1: and no one really cares. Even Hassen's shoke, of course,

1640
01:21:27,120 --> 01:21:30,200
Speaker 1: is irrelevant, as is the former White House aid Simone Sanders.

1641
01:21:30,439 --> 01:21:32,920
Speaker 1: Their bid to compete in news streaming is a failure.

1642
01:21:33,160 --> 01:21:35,680
Speaker 1: Cross was a great reflection of that. They're discovering that

1643
01:21:35,680 --> 01:21:37,960
Speaker 1: when people have actual choice, like what they do not

1644
01:21:38,120 --> 01:21:40,760
Speaker 1: have on cable, then their real feelings about their lack

1645
01:21:40,800 --> 01:21:44,320
Speaker 1: of credibility really comes out when they don't watch. And finally,

1646
01:21:44,400 --> 01:21:48,280
Speaker 1: my personal favorite CNN versus Jake Tapper, the so called

1647
01:21:48,400 --> 01:21:51,080
Speaker 1: rock of CNN. I'll say this, I guess he's better

1648
01:21:51,120 --> 01:21:52,760
Speaker 1: than the rest of them, but he's a lot like

1649
01:21:52,800 --> 01:21:55,320
Speaker 1: Shep Smith. He's good at the news, at actually getting

1650
01:21:55,360 --> 01:21:58,160
Speaker 1: people to want to watch, turns out not so much.

1651
01:21:58,439 --> 01:22:01,639
Speaker 1: Tapper flopped in the brief ex experiment with Primetime drawing

1652
01:22:01,720 --> 01:22:04,680
Speaker 1: only four hundred and fifty thousand viewers in total, a

1653
01:22:04,760 --> 01:22:08,240
Speaker 1: fraction of that in the key demographic. Even people in

1654
01:22:08,280 --> 01:22:10,920
Speaker 1: the cable news business who are used to having only

1655
01:22:11,000 --> 01:22:15,120
Speaker 1: old people watch described it as quote abysmal. The network

1656
01:22:15,200 --> 01:22:17,719
Speaker 1: claimed that he would have returned to daytime as always

1657
01:22:17,760 --> 01:22:20,680
Speaker 1: planned after the midterms, which is laughable. They hailed his

1658
01:22:20,760 --> 01:22:23,000
Speaker 1: placement there as a big move for the brand, which

1659
01:22:23,080 --> 01:22:25,280
Speaker 1: was all about the news and had all the intentions

1660
01:22:25,280 --> 01:22:28,519
Speaker 1: of making it permanent. They only backtracked after they realized

1661
01:22:28,560 --> 01:22:31,439
Speaker 1: how awful the numbers were. Then. Of course, Don Lemon

1662
01:22:31,680 --> 01:22:34,479
Speaker 1: Trump once aptly named him as the dumbest man on television,

1663
01:22:34,479 --> 01:22:36,720
Speaker 1: and he is fulfilling his promise in the debut of

1664
01:22:36,720 --> 01:22:39,240
Speaker 1: his new morning show. The numbers on this one are

1665
01:22:39,360 --> 01:22:42,360
Speaker 1: so low it is difficult to believe. As puck News,

1666
01:22:42,439 --> 01:22:47,040
Speaker 1: Dylan Byers writes, quote, the inaugural episode drew three hundred

1667
01:22:47,080 --> 01:22:50,519
Speaker 1: and eighty seven thousand total viewers seventy one thousand in

1668
01:22:50,560 --> 01:22:53,080
Speaker 1: the twenty five to fifty year old demographic, numbers that

1669
01:22:53,120 --> 01:22:56,559
Speaker 1: are significantly lower than the last incarnation at CNN's New Day.

1670
01:22:57,000 --> 01:22:59,599
Speaker 1: Media executives described it to me by turn as quote

1671
01:23:00,600 --> 01:23:05,040
Speaker 1: humiliating in abject disaster. All of that comes on the

1672
01:23:05,080 --> 01:23:07,599
Speaker 1: heels of bad news for CNN, whose new parent company

1673
01:23:07,600 --> 01:23:11,479
Speaker 1: of Warner Brothers Discovery, has sixty billion dollars in debt

1674
01:23:11,600 --> 01:23:14,040
Speaker 1: and now they have to cut ten percent of their

1675
01:23:14,160 --> 01:23:17,240
Speaker 1: entire budget. At CNN, with one hundred million dollars required

1676
01:23:17,280 --> 01:23:20,160
Speaker 1: in savings just this year, hundreds will be fired. Many

1677
01:23:20,160 --> 01:23:22,760
Speaker 1: anchors and talent could lose their job. I don't cheer

1678
01:23:22,800 --> 01:23:25,519
Speaker 1: any layperson losing their job, but when Don Lemon Show

1679
01:23:25,520 --> 01:23:28,719
Speaker 1: eventually does get canceled, I will be the first one laughing. Again.

1680
01:23:29,000 --> 01:23:31,920
Speaker 1: I'm doing this as an important reminder. Without Trump, these

1681
01:23:31,920 --> 01:23:34,920
Speaker 1: people are dead men walking. They will get their boost again.

1682
01:23:35,080 --> 01:23:37,800
Speaker 1: The boomers will come back, Let's be clear. But by

1683
01:23:37,840 --> 01:23:40,760
Speaker 1: the way, also don't think I'm not sparing Fox, They

1684
01:23:40,760 --> 01:23:42,560
Speaker 1: too are just as pathetic in their ratings and the

1685
01:23:42,640 --> 01:23:45,839
Speaker 1: key demographic. Their numbers may be higher overall than CNN

1686
01:23:45,920 --> 01:23:49,080
Speaker 1: or MSNBC, but their reliance on older viewers is somewhat

1687
01:23:49,080 --> 01:23:51,760
Speaker 1: even more of an existential threat. Their boomers too will

1688
01:23:51,760 --> 01:23:54,400
Speaker 1: come back for Trump, and that squares a circle. All

1689
01:23:54,479 --> 01:23:57,200
Speaker 1: of these networks got a huge lifeline in the time

1690
01:23:57,200 --> 01:23:59,559
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump, but the best he was was a

1691
01:23:59,600 --> 01:24:02,080
Speaker 1: band aid that could stop the bleeding. The writing was

1692
01:24:02,120 --> 01:24:04,639
Speaker 1: on the wall in twenty fifteen. Today it is even

1693
01:24:04,720 --> 01:24:07,759
Speaker 1: bolder than then. Put this monologue in a time capsule,

1694
01:24:07,920 --> 01:24:10,519
Speaker 1: remember it. Over the next few years, you're going to

1695
01:24:10,600 --> 01:24:12,679
Speaker 1: see a lot of people in the industry crowing about

1696
01:24:12,680 --> 01:24:15,360
Speaker 1: how the people who predicted their demise came too early.

1697
01:24:15,680 --> 01:24:18,400
Speaker 1: In the reality, it all rests upon a figure who's

1698
01:24:18,439 --> 01:24:21,040
Speaker 1: now much bigger than all of them, Trump And when

1699
01:24:21,040 --> 01:24:23,880
Speaker 1: he eventually leaves the bill for their obsession with him

1700
01:24:23,920 --> 01:24:27,000
Speaker 1: and the sacrifice of their credibility will truly come due.

1701
01:24:27,320 --> 01:24:29,479
Speaker 1: And I'll be laughing, and probably in the interim few

1702
01:24:29,680 --> 01:24:31,920
Speaker 1: years too, because the end of cable is just a

1703
01:24:32,000 --> 01:24:35,040
Speaker 1: cause too great to be celebrated. And listen, I mean

1704
01:24:35,280 --> 01:24:37,360
Speaker 1: it's actually fir And if you want to hear my

1705
01:24:37,520 --> 01:24:41,000
Speaker 1: reaction to Sager's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at

1706
01:24:41,000 --> 01:24:46,599
Speaker 1: Breakingpoints dot com. Christal, what are you taking to look at? Well, guys,

1707
01:24:46,640 --> 01:24:48,479
Speaker 1: as you know, the midterms are tomorrow, you know what

1708
01:24:48,520 --> 01:24:50,880
Speaker 1: that means. We are two days from the official start

1709
01:24:50,920 --> 01:24:53,880
Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty four presidential election. Right now, looks

1710
01:24:53,920 --> 01:24:56,800
Speaker 1: pretty likely we're going to get the rematch that absolutely

1711
01:24:56,800 --> 01:24:59,639
Speaker 1: no one asks for Trump versus Biden the sequel. It's

1712
01:24:59,640 --> 01:25:02,000
Speaker 1: one of the clearer signs of our societal and democratic

1713
01:25:02,040 --> 01:25:05,800
Speaker 1: decline that two men with negative approval ratings that a

1714
01:25:05,840 --> 01:25:08,519
Speaker 1: majority of the country says really clearly that they do

1715
01:25:08,600 --> 01:25:11,560
Speaker 1: not want those two dudes very likely to be the

1716
01:25:11,600 --> 01:25:14,759
Speaker 1: major party standard bearers. But while that outcome is likely,

1717
01:25:14,960 --> 01:25:17,840
Speaker 1: it's far from predetermined. We already covered Trump preparing to

1718
01:25:17,840 --> 01:25:21,120
Speaker 1: announce shortly after the midterms, taking shots at likely rival DeSantis.

1719
01:25:21,439 --> 01:25:23,240
Speaker 1: There are some things going on on the Democratic side

1720
01:25:23,240 --> 01:25:25,559
Speaker 1: of Ledger two though that might cause one to question

1721
01:25:25,600 --> 01:25:27,960
Speaker 1: whether Biden is in fact going to end up being

1722
01:25:27,960 --> 01:25:31,080
Speaker 1: the Democratic pick once again. So, first of all, dude

1723
01:25:31,080 --> 01:25:33,040
Speaker 1: hasn't been doing so well in the public eye lately,

1724
01:25:33,160 --> 01:25:35,439
Speaker 1: as we covered last week. In a recent appearance, Biden

1725
01:25:35,640 --> 01:25:38,960
Speaker 1: misidentified the war that we're currently involved in and then

1726
01:25:39,080 --> 01:25:43,360
Speaker 1: seconds later misstated how his own son died. Again. Take

1727
01:25:43,360 --> 01:25:47,880
Speaker 1: a look at that, and they talk about inflation. You know,

1728
01:25:48,160 --> 01:25:51,160
Speaker 1: we're dealing with it for a second. Inflation is a

1729
01:25:51,160 --> 01:25:54,719
Speaker 1: worldwide problem right now because of a war in Iraq

1730
01:25:54,840 --> 01:25:57,400
Speaker 1: and the impact on oil and what Russia's doing. I mean,

1731
01:25:57,400 --> 01:26:02,679
Speaker 1: the excuse me, the war in Ukraine and uh thinking

1732
01:26:02,720 --> 01:26:06,160
Speaker 1: of iract because that's my son died. Yeah, because of

1733
01:26:07,360 --> 01:26:10,360
Speaker 1: even We're not worthy than Yet another Biden stumble, However,

1734
01:26:10,479 --> 01:26:12,240
Speaker 1: was the fact that The New York Times, which is

1735
01:26:12,280 --> 01:26:15,680
Speaker 1: basically a mouthpiece for elite opinion, actually covered those stumbles.

1736
01:26:15,680 --> 01:26:18,200
Speaker 1: One of their most prominent reporter's chief White House correspondent,

1737
01:26:18,240 --> 01:26:22,000
Speaker 1: Peter Baker, he wrote a piece highlighting those brain malfunctions.

1738
01:26:22,120 --> 01:26:24,040
Speaker 1: This came at the same time that George Will, a

1739
01:26:24,080 --> 01:26:29,040
Speaker 1: conservative establishment fixture for decades, wrote a scathing column begging

1740
01:26:29,080 --> 01:26:32,000
Speaker 1: Democrats not to stick with Biden or his failed vice

1741
01:26:32,040 --> 01:26:35,519
Speaker 1: president Kamala Harris. Will wrote in that column regarding Biden

1742
01:26:35,560 --> 01:26:39,000
Speaker 1: and Harris, the National Democratic Party faces two tests of stewardship.

1743
01:26:39,160 --> 01:26:42,680
Speaker 1: It's in primature cannot again be bestowed on either one

1744
01:26:42,720 --> 01:26:45,920
Speaker 1: of them. Biden has not just passed his prime even

1745
01:26:46,120 --> 01:26:51,000
Speaker 1: adequacy is in his past, and this is Harris's prime. Ouch.

1746
01:26:51,400 --> 01:26:53,559
Speaker 1: Now there is one more to add to this list

1747
01:26:53,560 --> 01:26:56,160
Speaker 1: of elite critiques of Biden. Reuter's has a reported piece

1748
01:26:56,200 --> 01:26:58,840
Speaker 1: out asking whether major midterm losses are going to lead

1749
01:26:58,880 --> 01:27:02,080
Speaker 1: to Democrats pulling the plug on the current president. The

1750
01:27:02,160 --> 01:27:05,719
Speaker 1: article begins quite provocatively, They write, the US midterm elections

1751
01:27:05,760 --> 01:27:07,920
Speaker 1: on Tuesday will do much more than shape the next

1752
01:27:07,920 --> 01:27:11,759
Speaker 1: two years of Joe Biden's presidency. They'll help determine whether

1753
01:27:11,840 --> 01:27:14,839
Speaker 1: he will run in twenty twenty four, as well, political

1754
01:27:15,400 --> 01:27:18,400
Speaker 1: advisors believe. They then go on to report on the

1755
01:27:18,400 --> 01:27:21,000
Speaker 1: efforts of a few Blue state governors to position themselves

1756
01:27:21,000 --> 01:27:23,479
Speaker 1: to the possibility Biden decides not to run after all,

1757
01:27:23,800 --> 01:27:27,840
Speaker 1: namely California's Gavin Newsom, Illinois JB. Pritzker, and apparently New

1758
01:27:27,920 --> 01:27:30,519
Speaker 1: Jersey's Phil Murphy. Okay, they also have a bunch of

1759
01:27:30,600 --> 01:27:33,760
Speaker 1: quotes from named and anonymous analysts questioning whether Biden is

1760
01:27:33,840 --> 01:27:36,599
Speaker 1: really the party's best choice for the future. Now, these

1761
01:27:36,720 --> 01:27:39,320
Speaker 1: articles are only interesting and that they give us little

1762
01:27:39,360 --> 01:27:44,120
Speaker 1: glimpse into a Washington insider game of jocking and of leaking. Basically,

1763
01:27:44,160 --> 01:27:46,639
Speaker 1: what these articles all signal is that the party donors

1764
01:27:46,640 --> 01:27:49,559
Speaker 1: and elites do not want Biden to be the nominee again. Now,

1765
01:27:49,560 --> 01:27:52,360
Speaker 1: these types of frankly always kind of underestimated Biden. They

1766
01:27:52,360 --> 01:27:54,679
Speaker 1: look down on him for his lack of educational pedigree

1767
01:27:54,720 --> 01:27:57,080
Speaker 1: and for a political style that leans into retail and

1768
01:27:57,120 --> 01:28:00,720
Speaker 1: gut instinct. Over the overly intellectual stylistic approach of saying

1769
01:28:00,800 --> 01:28:03,880
Speaker 1: Obama or a Pete. Ironically, they actually looked down on

1770
01:28:03,920 --> 01:28:06,559
Speaker 1: Biden for some of his more compelling characteristics rather than

1771
01:28:06,600 --> 01:28:09,479
Speaker 1: any of the actual policy issues with him. But this

1772
01:28:09,560 --> 01:28:12,280
Speaker 1: sid of party elites would prefer the Silicon Valley connected

1773
01:28:12,280 --> 01:28:15,120
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom or their real wet dream the McKinsey credentialed

1774
01:28:15,240 --> 01:28:19,080
Speaker 1: Pete Bootagic. Now, this whole dynamic of elites unsure of Biden,

1775
01:28:19,400 --> 01:28:21,360
Speaker 1: it does have a bit of a deja vu quality

1776
01:28:21,400 --> 01:28:23,000
Speaker 1: to it. In the run up to the twenty twenty

1777
01:28:23,040 --> 01:28:26,000
Speaker 1: Den primary, there were similar questions about Biden's fitness and

1778
01:28:26,040 --> 01:28:29,400
Speaker 1: capability to lead the party into the modern era. Typically,

1779
01:28:29,479 --> 01:28:31,519
Speaker 1: a former vice president would be seen as a clear

1780
01:28:31,560 --> 01:28:33,920
Speaker 1: era apparent would more or less be able to clear

1781
01:28:33,960 --> 01:28:38,040
Speaker 1: the nominating field. Instead, Biden's perceived weakness led to a

1782
01:28:38,080 --> 01:28:41,240
Speaker 1: record breaking number of candidates, everyone from outsiders to insiders,

1783
01:28:41,240 --> 01:28:43,080
Speaker 1: the latter climbers to people we had never heard of

1784
01:28:43,120 --> 01:28:45,960
Speaker 1: and really haven't heard from. Since it's easy to forget now,

1785
01:28:46,160 --> 01:28:48,800
Speaker 1: but the time you were even allowed to question whether

1786
01:28:48,840 --> 01:28:51,640
Speaker 1: Biden's age had caught up with him. Remember this, he

1787
01:28:51,680 --> 01:28:55,080
Speaker 1: wanted every single person in this country covered. My plan

1788
01:28:55,080 --> 01:28:56,960
Speaker 1: would do that? Your plan would? We do not have

1789
01:28:57,040 --> 01:28:59,600
Speaker 1: to buy in, They do not have to buy in.

1790
01:29:00,040 --> 01:29:02,599
Speaker 1: Said that, you just said that two minutes ago. You

1791
01:29:02,680 --> 01:29:04,360
Speaker 1: just said two minutes ago that they would have to

1792
01:29:04,360 --> 01:29:06,840
Speaker 1: buy in. You said they would have to buy in

1793
01:29:06,880 --> 01:29:09,240
Speaker 1: and to buy in if you qualify. Are you forgetting

1794
01:29:09,240 --> 01:29:13,519
Speaker 1: what you said for? But ultimately, when it came down

1795
01:29:13,600 --> 01:29:17,360
Speaker 1: to it, political donor and mediate leads underestimated Biden and

1796
01:29:17,520 --> 01:29:21,280
Speaker 1: wildly overestimated the bench that they had imagined to be

1797
01:29:21,400 --> 01:29:25,040
Speaker 1: stacked with talent and with appeal as there would be replacements,

1798
01:29:25,040 --> 01:29:28,080
Speaker 1: were rejected one by one by one by the American public.

1799
01:29:28,080 --> 01:29:29,920
Speaker 1: They were finally, at the last minute, faced with the

1800
01:29:29,920 --> 01:29:32,280
Speaker 1: reality that their only chance to keep Bernie from being

1801
01:29:32,280 --> 01:29:35,160
Speaker 1: the nominee was to go all in for Biden. As

1802
01:29:35,200 --> 01:29:37,679
Speaker 1: Biden's own wife once put it, to suck it up

1803
01:29:37,760 --> 01:29:40,080
Speaker 1: and vote Joe. Now, if I had to guess, I'd

1804
01:29:40,120 --> 01:29:41,760
Speaker 1: say we're going to see a similar process play on

1805
01:29:41,920 --> 01:29:43,559
Speaker 1: if the big terms result in the red wave that

1806
01:29:43,600 --> 01:29:46,160
Speaker 1: looks pretty likely at this point, expect a whole lot

1807
01:29:46,200 --> 01:29:49,840
Speaker 1: more articles like this CNN and MSNBC. They're going to

1808
01:29:49,880 --> 01:29:53,320
Speaker 1: lift their moratorium on discussing Biden's mental acuity leaks are

1809
01:29:53,320 --> 01:29:56,800
Speaker 1: going to fly. Anonymous DEM consultants will savage Biden aids

1810
01:29:56,840 --> 01:29:58,760
Speaker 1: to Pete Newsome and others are going to plant lots

1811
01:29:58,760 --> 01:30:01,799
Speaker 1: of negative Biden stories. Polls will flood the field, revealing

1812
01:30:01,840 --> 01:30:04,800
Speaker 1: once again the Democrats would love to nominate someone other

1813
01:30:04,880 --> 01:30:08,120
Speaker 1: than Joe Biden. And then eventually reality will set in

1814
01:30:08,280 --> 01:30:10,920
Speaker 1: once again for these elites. Reality that the elected dem

1815
01:30:11,000 --> 01:30:14,400
Speaker 1: bench is even less popular than Biden. Reality that as

1816
01:30:14,520 --> 01:30:16,920
Speaker 1: adult as Biden may be, he didn't spend all his

1817
01:30:17,000 --> 01:30:18,680
Speaker 1: life chasing the brass ring just to give it up

1818
01:30:18,680 --> 01:30:21,120
Speaker 1: because some donor types are thirsting after may or Pete.

1819
01:30:21,479 --> 01:30:24,959
Speaker 1: Reality that even in their fantasy world where Biden willingly

1820
01:30:25,000 --> 01:30:27,960
Speaker 1: steps aside, Dems then have to grapple with the fact

1821
01:30:28,000 --> 01:30:30,080
Speaker 1: that they can't just push aside the first black female

1822
01:30:30,160 --> 01:30:32,680
Speaker 1: vice president for casting governor white guys without facing a

1823
01:30:32,720 --> 01:30:36,559
Speaker 1: wave of shrieking about racism and sexism. Just like last time,

1824
01:30:36,760 --> 01:30:40,840
Speaker 1: almost instantaneously, the media will shift from questioning Biden to

1825
01:30:41,040 --> 01:30:44,639
Speaker 1: uncritical flattery. The close ranks hard and try to snuff

1826
01:30:44,680 --> 01:30:47,799
Speaker 1: out any outsiders who consider challenging Biden in the primary

1827
01:30:47,840 --> 01:30:51,360
Speaker 1: without the party blessing. But even after elites circle the wagons,

1828
01:30:51,520 --> 01:30:54,200
Speaker 1: one problem for Biden will still remain, and that's the

1829
01:30:54,280 --> 01:30:58,640
Speaker 1: hard fact that the Democratic base desperately wants other options,

1830
01:30:58,800 --> 01:31:02,519
Speaker 1: and that base, having seen the weakness of Biden's electability argument,

1831
01:31:02,560 --> 01:31:04,840
Speaker 1: with a mid term sheal acting and after a few

1832
01:31:04,880 --> 01:31:08,880
Speaker 1: more years of mainstream media weakening and alternative media strengthening,

1833
01:31:09,320 --> 01:31:12,000
Speaker 1: they might not be as easily corralled this time around

1834
01:31:12,120 --> 01:31:16,000
Speaker 1: as they were last time for Biden. The people, not demolites,

1835
01:31:16,200 --> 01:31:19,960
Speaker 1: are the real threat Sager I saw this morning jensak

1836
01:31:20,320 --> 01:31:22,600
Speaker 1: for and if you want to hear my reaction to

1837
01:31:22,760 --> 01:31:29,879
Speaker 1: Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com.

1838
01:31:29,960 --> 01:31:32,160
Speaker 1: All right, predictions, all right, should we lay it all

1839
01:31:32,200 --> 01:31:34,080
Speaker 1: on the table. Let's do it. Okay, let's do it.

1840
01:31:34,160 --> 01:31:36,200
Speaker 1: Let's go all right, let's go one by one? All right,

1841
01:31:36,320 --> 01:31:38,240
Speaker 1: all right, So, first of all, the House is going

1842
01:31:38,360 --> 01:31:41,559
Speaker 1: Republican obviously, do you have any guests of the margin?

1843
01:31:41,640 --> 01:31:44,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say R plus twenty five. Yeah, that's see.

1844
01:31:44,479 --> 01:31:47,000
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm shamelessly stealing that from the Coco

1845
01:31:47,040 --> 01:31:50,719
Speaker 1: political way. And also, what's Kyle condyck of where Crystal

1846
01:31:50,720 --> 01:31:52,760
Speaker 1: ball they both have the same thing. That's yeah, I

1847
01:31:52,800 --> 01:31:54,639
Speaker 1: was going to say the same thing for the same reason.

1848
01:31:54,760 --> 01:31:56,479
Speaker 1: There you go. They are paying a lot more attention

1849
01:31:56,560 --> 01:31:58,360
Speaker 1: to those races than I am, so and they're lots

1850
01:31:58,360 --> 01:32:00,160
Speaker 1: smarter on these things. So better to go with the

1851
01:32:00,200 --> 01:32:02,840
Speaker 1: experts on that one, all right, Georgia. Okay, Georgia, I

1852
01:32:02,840 --> 01:32:04,880
Speaker 1: think Herschel Walker's is gonna win. Do you think he's

1853
01:32:04,960 --> 01:32:06,599
Speaker 1: going to avoid a runoff? No, I don't think he'll

1854
01:32:06,600 --> 01:32:08,920
Speaker 1: avoid a runoff. I think you will win narrowly by

1855
01:32:08,960 --> 01:32:10,840
Speaker 1: like one or two percentage points, and that ultimately will

1856
01:32:10,840 --> 01:32:13,320
Speaker 1: probably prevail on the runoff, although it makes it more uncertain.

1857
01:32:13,400 --> 01:32:17,879
Speaker 1: What about you agree? Okay, same, I think it'll be close, Georgia.

1858
01:32:17,960 --> 01:32:21,240
Speaker 1: The polls have been pretty accurate in Georgia, both in

1859
01:32:21,479 --> 01:32:23,880
Speaker 1: twenty twenty and then in the runoffs, they were pretty

1860
01:32:23,880 --> 01:32:26,479
Speaker 1: on the money. They show a very close race. None

1861
01:32:26,520 --> 01:32:29,679
Speaker 1: of them shows either one of them surpassing fifty percentage points,

1862
01:32:29,720 --> 01:32:31,320
Speaker 1: which is what you have to do to avoid a runoff.

1863
01:32:31,360 --> 01:32:33,680
Speaker 1: So I would also say Walker by a little bit,

1864
01:32:34,240 --> 01:32:38,040
Speaker 1: but you're going to a runoff, all right? What about Nevada? Nevada,

1865
01:32:38,120 --> 01:32:40,639
Speaker 1: I'm still going to go with Adam Laxalt even after

1866
01:32:40,720 --> 01:32:43,600
Speaker 1: John Ralston's predictions, after seeing my friends Cory Larry on

1867
01:32:43,720 --> 01:32:46,360
Speaker 1: Ralston's own numbers and doing some of the analysis, I

1868
01:32:46,360 --> 01:32:48,639
Speaker 1: think Laksolt will pull it out by maybe one point

1869
01:32:48,760 --> 01:32:50,200
Speaker 1: or something like that. It is very tight, though, and

1870
01:32:50,200 --> 01:32:51,920
Speaker 1: this is why it's difficult to make these start. I'll

1871
01:32:51,920 --> 01:32:53,840
Speaker 1: stand with Ralston just because he has such a good

1872
01:32:53,840 --> 01:32:57,439
Speaker 1: track record. Here. My instinct would have been Laxalt, but

1873
01:32:57,800 --> 01:32:59,760
Speaker 1: because he is so steeped in the numbers and has

1874
01:32:59,760 --> 01:33:01,719
Speaker 1: such a good track record, I'll say that Catherine Cortez

1875
01:33:01,720 --> 01:33:04,840
Speaker 1: Master holds on there. Okay, next, Okay, what about I'll

1876
01:33:04,840 --> 01:33:08,080
Speaker 1: say Pennsylvania for last? What about Arizona, Mark Kelly versus

1877
01:33:08,120 --> 01:33:10,560
Speaker 1: Blake Masters. I think Masters pulls it out by a

1878
01:33:10,600 --> 01:33:13,160
Speaker 1: couple I'll tell you why. The gubernatorial numbers are just

1879
01:33:13,200 --> 01:33:17,240
Speaker 1: too good. Carrie Lake is nuking Katie's option. So even

1880
01:33:17,280 --> 01:33:20,160
Speaker 1: if you have some split ticket this is actually I

1881
01:33:20,280 --> 01:33:23,640
Speaker 1: might surprise people in Pennsylvania in terms of my analysis,

1882
01:33:23,640 --> 01:33:26,919
Speaker 1: but the gubernatorial I think really matters in the Arizona context.

1883
01:33:27,120 --> 01:33:29,840
Speaker 1: Whenever you have split ticket voting, it's not something that

1884
01:33:29,880 --> 01:33:32,240
Speaker 1: you can bank on Carrie Lake winning that race by

1885
01:33:32,320 --> 01:33:35,040
Speaker 1: like ten points right now, and I think that Carrie's

1886
01:33:35,080 --> 01:33:38,400
Speaker 1: popularity will bleed over onto Masters instead of vice versa.

1887
01:33:38,479 --> 01:33:40,920
Speaker 1: This is the one I'm probably well that. Actually I'm

1888
01:33:40,920 --> 01:33:42,920
Speaker 1: not that sure of any of them, but i gonna

1889
01:33:42,920 --> 01:33:46,200
Speaker 1: say I'm going to say Mark Kelly holds on because

1890
01:33:47,760 --> 01:33:50,240
Speaker 1: the thing that persuaded me there is that you had

1891
01:33:50,439 --> 01:33:53,760
Speaker 1: voters saying cultural issues were more important than in other states.

1892
01:33:54,160 --> 01:33:57,400
Speaker 1: He has a long standing and predating him being a

1893
01:33:57,439 --> 01:34:00,280
Speaker 1: senator profile in the state, and you know, very like

1894
01:34:00,400 --> 01:34:05,000
Speaker 1: positive feelings about him. Masterss has run just an abysmal campaign.

1895
01:34:05,760 --> 01:34:07,640
Speaker 1: Arizona is a place where, you know, some of the

1896
01:34:07,640 --> 01:34:10,040
Speaker 1: demographic trends are more in democrats favor. It's also a

1897
01:34:10,040 --> 01:34:13,200
Speaker 1: place where the polling has also tended to be more accurate.

1898
01:34:13,600 --> 01:34:17,040
Speaker 1: So I'm going to say Mark Kelly holds on in Arizona.

1899
01:34:18,040 --> 01:34:19,840
Speaker 1: Let's go to New Hampshire. What do you think about

1900
01:34:19,840 --> 01:34:24,080
Speaker 1: New Hampshire? Okay, New Hampshire. It's a tough one. I'm

1901
01:34:24,120 --> 01:34:26,559
Speaker 1: just gonna say, Brian Baldock, I'm betting on the Red

1902
01:34:26,600 --> 01:34:28,200
Speaker 1: we I'm not going to go with it. Yeah, that's

1903
01:34:28,200 --> 01:34:31,639
Speaker 1: my my analysis is that Redway. Listen, I mean, okay,

1904
01:34:31,760 --> 01:34:34,360
Speaker 1: that region. What do we know about it? Big polling

1905
01:34:34,400 --> 01:34:38,840
Speaker 1: misses in the last contest Susan Collins in Maine, not

1906
01:34:39,000 --> 01:34:42,280
Speaker 1: the same state, I'm aware New Hampshire. Rites that being said,

1907
01:34:42,479 --> 01:34:45,240
Speaker 1: the poll was missed by ten points, and that was

1908
01:34:45,280 --> 01:34:48,640
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, much more favorable environment. Haston is a

1909
01:34:48,720 --> 01:34:51,519
Speaker 1: much weaker candidate. Bulldock might be kind of crazy. The

1910
01:34:51,600 --> 01:34:55,080
Speaker 1: fundamentals are all going in the GOP direction, major tightening,

1911
01:34:55,439 --> 01:34:58,760
Speaker 1: no election or no early vote in the state. I

1912
01:34:58,760 --> 01:35:02,000
Speaker 1: think it's just just a I think again, given the

1913
01:35:02,040 --> 01:35:05,280
Speaker 1: way that the trends are going, the poll under it. Also,

1914
01:35:05,320 --> 01:35:07,160
Speaker 1: there's actually not been all that many high quality poles

1915
01:35:07,200 --> 01:35:09,400
Speaker 1: out of New Hampshire up until very recently, so that

1916
01:35:09,479 --> 01:35:11,160
Speaker 1: was another reason, you know what, actually kind of fled.

1917
01:35:11,360 --> 01:35:14,840
Speaker 1: I actually was thinking New Hampshire Republicans would take it

1918
01:35:14,920 --> 01:35:17,479
Speaker 1: until I saw that Trafalgar only had Baldock by one,

1919
01:35:17,840 --> 01:35:20,280
Speaker 1: and then I was like, Trafalgar's only got you win

1920
01:35:20,320 --> 01:35:24,160
Speaker 1: in by one. That's pretty close to where the Democratic

1921
01:35:24,160 --> 01:35:27,040
Speaker 1: polls are. The Democratic polls have HASSENPI like a couple

1922
01:35:27,040 --> 01:35:29,840
Speaker 1: of points or not. The Democrat the mainstream polls have

1923
01:35:29,880 --> 01:35:33,000
Speaker 1: Hassen by a couple of points. I'm going to say

1924
01:35:33,000 --> 01:35:36,040
Speaker 1: she holds on there as well. Let's do I think

1925
01:35:36,040 --> 01:35:38,160
Speaker 1: we both agree. Ohio jd Vance is going to win.

1926
01:35:38,200 --> 01:35:41,559
Speaker 1: It's not going to be particularly close. Wisconsin, Ron Johnson

1927
01:35:41,640 --> 01:35:43,720
Speaker 1: is going to hang on. They're not particularly close. North

1928
01:35:43,720 --> 01:35:45,840
Speaker 1: Carolina is another one that sort of is in that realm,

1929
01:35:45,880 --> 01:35:48,200
Speaker 1: same thing. I think the Republican holds on and wins

1930
01:35:48,200 --> 01:35:51,920
Speaker 1: there not a difficult one, all right. How about Pennsylvania.

1931
01:35:51,960 --> 01:35:54,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with oz Man at the conqueror. I

1932
01:35:55,040 --> 01:35:59,120
Speaker 1: just I don't. I think given the debate, the early

1933
01:35:59,240 --> 01:36:01,679
Speaker 1: vote numbers were very high, but there's not a lot

1934
01:36:01,680 --> 01:36:06,519
Speaker 1: that people could make of that we generally see. I

1935
01:36:06,520 --> 01:36:11,559
Speaker 1: think with the enthusiasm Republican sorry, what was it, Biden

1936
01:36:11,600 --> 01:36:14,479
Speaker 1: approval rating is so low in the state. The only

1937
01:36:14,560 --> 01:36:16,479
Speaker 1: reason I think Fetterman might pull it out is the

1938
01:36:16,520 --> 01:36:19,519
Speaker 1: strength of Josh Shapiro. So this is that's the flip

1939
01:36:19,520 --> 01:36:22,000
Speaker 1: of Arizona. This is the flip of Arizona where Shapiro

1940
01:36:22,120 --> 01:36:24,400
Speaker 1: is up by ten. So to have then a split

1941
01:36:24,400 --> 01:36:26,720
Speaker 1: ticket of Shapiro and Oz doesn't make a hell of

1942
01:36:26,760 --> 01:36:28,840
Speaker 1: a lot of sense to me. Mastriano in many ways

1943
01:36:28,880 --> 01:36:30,840
Speaker 1: might be more responsible for oz Is lost than even

1944
01:36:30,920 --> 01:36:33,680
Speaker 1: Oz himself because he's such a bad candidate, prevents a

1945
01:36:33,680 --> 01:36:37,160
Speaker 1: split straight ticket GOP. But I think he's gonna pull

1946
01:36:37,160 --> 01:36:39,439
Speaker 1: it out. I mean one point. To have that margin

1947
01:36:39,520 --> 01:36:43,040
Speaker 1: in a flawed polling environment makes it so very difficult

1948
01:36:43,160 --> 01:36:45,120
Speaker 1: to bet against it. So I don't know. I think

1949
01:36:45,120 --> 01:36:47,840
Speaker 1: it's possible list that one would actually ironically, that one

1950
01:36:47,960 --> 01:36:50,400
Speaker 1: surprised me the least. If Fetterman you could see it

1951
01:36:50,439 --> 01:36:52,320
Speaker 1: going the other way. That one, I think is truly

1952
01:36:52,640 --> 01:36:54,320
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. But look, if I had to bet,

1953
01:36:54,320 --> 01:36:56,400
Speaker 1: I think I'm betting Oz. I am also going to

1954
01:36:56,439 --> 01:37:01,240
Speaker 1: bet Oz on this one because the polls are extremely close,

1955
01:37:01,640 --> 01:37:04,559
Speaker 1: and at this point, Real Clear Politics has OZ with

1956
01:37:04,600 --> 01:37:09,519
Speaker 1: a point one percent advantage, and Pennsylvania's a state where

1957
01:37:09,520 --> 01:37:12,560
Speaker 1: we've had big polling misses in favor of the Republicans.

1958
01:37:12,760 --> 01:37:16,040
Speaker 1: So when I look at a jump ball in terms

1959
01:37:16,040 --> 01:37:18,519
Speaker 1: of the polls and I think about past history, I

1960
01:37:18,560 --> 01:37:21,320
Speaker 1: have to think that that's understating Republican support, probably in

1961
01:37:21,360 --> 01:37:23,080
Speaker 1: the western part of the state and more like white

1962
01:37:23,080 --> 01:37:26,479
Speaker 1: working class areas. So yeah, I'm going to say that

1963
01:37:26,520 --> 01:37:28,840
Speaker 1: Oz pulls that one, pulls out the victory. There. There

1964
01:37:28,880 --> 01:37:31,400
Speaker 1: you go. That's our fun thing. I will remind people

1965
01:37:31,520 --> 01:37:33,840
Speaker 1: GOP people don't like to I called every state in

1966
01:37:33,880 --> 01:37:35,519
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty election. I don't know if you remember,

1967
01:37:35,600 --> 01:37:38,439
Speaker 1: Yeah you did, Yeah, yeah, you nailed it electoral college.

1968
01:37:38,479 --> 01:37:41,080
Speaker 1: And now, of course the Republicans are like, no, because

1969
01:37:41,120 --> 01:37:43,639
Speaker 1: the election was rigged. But listen, you know I think

1970
01:37:43,680 --> 01:37:46,600
Speaker 1: I have That's my only time I've ever done this,

1971
01:37:46,800 --> 01:37:48,840
Speaker 1: So it was yeah, so you guys, you got to

1972
01:37:48,840 --> 01:37:52,160
Speaker 1: go to subtrack. I'm joking. I don't know anything. I

1973
01:37:52,200 --> 01:37:54,160
Speaker 1: know just as much as all of you and as you.

1974
01:37:54,240 --> 01:37:56,120
Speaker 1: I think it could go easily that way, it could

1975
01:37:56,160 --> 01:37:58,400
Speaker 1: go my way. I think it could go. You know

1976
01:37:59,040 --> 01:38:01,680
Speaker 1: why I love these things is the probabilities, which is

1977
01:38:01,720 --> 01:38:03,799
Speaker 1: that I think there's a ten percent chance the Republicans

1978
01:38:03,840 --> 01:38:05,400
Speaker 1: win like fifty five seats, and I think there's a

1979
01:38:05,400 --> 01:38:07,200
Speaker 1: ten percent chance if they lose every single one of

1980
01:38:07,240 --> 01:38:10,280
Speaker 1: these every single one of these things, somewhere, it's going

1981
01:38:10,320 --> 01:38:12,479
Speaker 1: to be in the middle. That's kind of how probability works. Yeah,

1982
01:38:12,520 --> 01:38:15,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I do continue to think that they'll all

1983
01:38:16,560 --> 01:38:19,439
Speaker 1: fall in one direction, which honestly kind of argues against

1984
01:38:19,520 --> 01:38:22,040
Speaker 1: all of the picks that I just made, with the

1985
01:38:22,040 --> 01:38:26,360
Speaker 1: one exception being that no, that I do think is

1986
01:38:26,400 --> 01:38:28,840
Speaker 1: a little bit that is structurally a little bit different

1987
01:38:28,880 --> 01:38:30,719
Speaker 1: than the rest of the country. So I can imagine

1988
01:38:30,760 --> 01:38:33,160
Speaker 1: a scenario Dumcrats hold there even as they lose like

1989
01:38:33,200 --> 01:38:37,280
Speaker 1: everywhere else. The one I feel probably the most confident

1990
01:38:37,280 --> 01:38:39,280
Speaker 1: about is just like Georgia going to a runoff. Yeah,

1991
01:38:39,320 --> 01:38:42,720
Speaker 1: I could see either Walker or Warnock coming on top there.

1992
01:38:42,800 --> 01:38:45,200
Speaker 1: I think probably Walker at this point, but I could

1993
01:38:45,240 --> 01:38:47,280
Speaker 1: see it going either way. But I have a hard

1994
01:38:47,320 --> 01:38:49,960
Speaker 1: time imagining either one of them getting over fifty percent.

1995
01:38:50,160 --> 01:38:51,640
Speaker 1: The fun thing on George is actually gonna know that

1996
01:38:51,680 --> 01:38:54,679
Speaker 1: relatively soon, or at least we'll get some great indications

1997
01:38:54,680 --> 01:38:56,519
Speaker 1: because the pole clothes there at like seven or seven.

1998
01:38:56,560 --> 01:38:58,000
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, right when we're on the air, we're going

1999
01:38:58,040 --> 01:39:00,200
Speaker 1: to start getting initial numbers, and I think with an

2000
01:39:00,240 --> 01:39:02,120
Speaker 1: hour we'll have a very good idea of like where

2001
01:39:02,160 --> 01:39:05,280
Speaker 1: things are. We should also, you know, we really before

2002
01:39:05,320 --> 01:39:07,760
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty elections, we really went on in deep

2003
01:39:07,800 --> 01:39:09,920
Speaker 1: on like, Okay, here's the results that are going to

2004
01:39:10,000 --> 01:39:11,880
Speaker 1: come in. First, the mail and bouts are going to

2005
01:39:11,920 --> 01:39:13,439
Speaker 1: come in, and then this is going to end the

2006
01:39:13,520 --> 01:39:16,639
Speaker 1: day of and whatever. So we didn't go as in

2007
01:39:16,680 --> 01:39:19,240
Speaker 1: depth on that, but just also keep in mind that

2008
01:39:20,240 --> 01:39:23,760
Speaker 1: the mode of voting has become fairly partisan. Democrats much

2009
01:39:23,800 --> 01:39:25,960
Speaker 1: more likely to vote early, Republicans much more likely to

2010
01:39:26,040 --> 01:39:28,160
Speaker 1: vote on election day. So just keep in mind as

2011
01:39:28,200 --> 01:39:31,280
Speaker 1: these results are coming in, you may see big shifts

2012
01:39:31,560 --> 01:39:34,720
Speaker 1: where there's nothing nefarious. It's just basically because Trump said

2013
01:39:34,720 --> 01:39:36,720
Speaker 1: that mail in voting is fake, that you have this

2014
01:39:36,840 --> 01:39:40,000
Speaker 1: partisan divide on how people vote, and so that may

2015
01:39:40,120 --> 01:39:42,840
Speaker 1: lead to some strange dynamics on election night, which is

2016
01:39:42,880 --> 01:39:44,840
Speaker 1: just something to keep in mind for all of us

2017
01:39:44,880 --> 01:39:47,800
Speaker 1: as we're watching these results ultimately come in. But yeah,

2018
01:39:47,840 --> 01:39:49,519
Speaker 1: I'm psyched. It's gonna be fun. We're gonna have the

2019
01:39:49,520 --> 01:39:53,280
Speaker 1: whole extended family in the house watching this thing live.

2020
01:39:53,520 --> 01:39:55,680
Speaker 1: And as you can tell, I mean, it really is

2021
01:39:56,439 --> 01:39:59,320
Speaker 1: really is hard to say on the Senate in particular,

2022
01:39:59,520 --> 01:40:01,920
Speaker 1: what direct all of these are going to fall going

2023
01:40:01,960 --> 01:40:03,600
Speaker 1: to be. I love election Day. You find out a

2024
01:40:03,640 --> 01:40:06,200
Speaker 1: lot about America a lot. It's one of the only

2025
01:40:06,240 --> 01:40:08,479
Speaker 1: times media gets real time checked all of us. It's

2026
01:40:08,520 --> 01:40:11,400
Speaker 1: a very humbling experience. I love the hell out of it.

2027
01:40:11,720 --> 01:40:12,960
Speaker 1: And it's a lot of fun. It's a lot of

2028
01:40:12,960 --> 01:40:14,800
Speaker 1: fun to cover with all of these. So maybe guys

2029
01:40:14,880 --> 01:40:17,120
Speaker 1: join us seven pm. We'll be up here on the

2030
01:40:17,120 --> 01:40:19,559
Speaker 1: desk as long as it is and then in the

2031
01:40:19,560 --> 01:40:22,240
Speaker 1: morning Wednesday we'll have a show for them for you

2032
01:40:22,320 --> 01:40:24,360
Speaker 1: all as well. So yeah, I think that you guys

2033
01:40:24,400 --> 01:40:27,280
Speaker 1: are going to have too much analysis. You get to

2034
01:40:27,320 --> 01:40:29,400
Speaker 1: pick up flood the zone. It's a flow, yeah, exactly,

2035
01:40:29,400 --> 01:40:30,920
Speaker 1: We're gonna flood the zone. It's a pick your own

2036
01:40:30,920 --> 01:40:32,960
Speaker 1: adventure for whatever you want to hear. And when we

2037
01:40:33,400 --> 01:40:35,479
Speaker 1: look forward to seeing all of you with Kyle and

2038
01:40:35,520 --> 01:40:38,360
Speaker 1: Marshall and Emily and Ryan so also our people on

2039
01:40:38,400 --> 01:40:41,000
Speaker 1: the ground. Seriously, I want to thank the Premiums so much.

2040
01:40:41,040 --> 01:40:43,000
Speaker 1: You know, it's in these times that we we just

2041
01:40:43,400 --> 01:40:46,559
Speaker 1: we think about how they have enabled us to give

2042
01:40:46,640 --> 01:40:48,840
Speaker 1: like a real production, to have real people on the

2043
01:40:48,880 --> 01:40:51,240
Speaker 1: ground to pay for that deo's interviews. I mean, that

2044
01:40:51,320 --> 01:40:54,479
Speaker 1: is the most expensive part of news gathering operation and

2045
01:40:54,520 --> 01:40:57,200
Speaker 1: it's solely because of your support. So if you like it,

2046
01:40:57,400 --> 01:40:59,240
Speaker 1: and by the way, we're heading into twenty twenty three,

2047
01:40:59,400 --> 01:41:00,640
Speaker 1: you can sign up to be a linked down in

2048
01:41:00,640 --> 01:41:03,360
Speaker 1: the description. Otherwise we'll see you all tomorrow seven pm.

2049
01:41:03,520 --> 01:41:04,439
Speaker 1: Love y'all, See you soon.