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Speaker 1: zero seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan

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Speaker 1: one eight seventh having s t O P in Louisiana

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Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Red Line one eight nine or visit

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Speaker 1: one eight gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chaid Noman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We're starting conference finals in the NBA, folks. I got

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, professional better b FF compadre companion my co

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Speaker 1: hosts here on The Favorites Sign Sixers. We haven't talked

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Speaker 1: about sort of the demise of your team. I want

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Speaker 1: to bring in our guests in a second, who I'll introduce,

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Speaker 1: But we should talk about the fact that you know,

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Speaker 1: Doc Rivers is coming back and this team looked like

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Speaker 1: they had no passion, no fire, no fight. The we're

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Speaker 1: grabbing offensive rebounds. One guy in between two guys, What

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Speaker 1: say you? What say you about the prospects for your

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Speaker 1: local team? I mean the life of the Sixers fans.

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Speaker 1: But um a, I was two thousand and one man

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Speaker 1: like that was a lifetime ago for me as a

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Speaker 1: Sixers fan. So am I upset? Yeah, but I literally

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Speaker 1: said it to you. I hate James Harden. Did not

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Speaker 1: like his style play at all when he came to

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Speaker 1: the Sixers. I was like, this guy's zero heart. Like

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, you need heart, you need a dog.

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Speaker 1: That man has no dog in him. So nothing shocking.

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Speaker 1: It sucks. I keep losing money betting on them, but

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Speaker 1: it's all good. It's like, it's what I expect. So

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Speaker 1: as a Sixers fan, I'm excited that we have Naxi

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Speaker 1: Joel Embiid. Hopefully his face comes back normal next year

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Speaker 1: and he can heal up, and I'm happy, excited for

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Speaker 1: the future. But if Harding gets a five year deal

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Speaker 1: from Darryl Morey, I know you were Ravelle had that

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Speaker 1: guy's phone number or address. I'm getting it off you

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Speaker 1: and I'm going to the guy's house, so I can't

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Speaker 1: have it. So right now, I think all the Sixers

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Speaker 1: and they're just scared about what's going to happen this

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Speaker 1: offseason with James Harford. Look, there's a lot at stake,

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Speaker 1: right I do wanna bring in our guests. Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 1: NBA analyst at Action Network, frequent guests and podcaster on

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Speaker 1: Our Buckets podcast, as well as frequent guest and podcaster

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Speaker 1: for our NFL podcasts. Jason timp Volume, colleague, host of

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Speaker 1: the Lakers Night podcast on the Volume Network. Before we

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Speaker 1: get to previewing the finals, both the MAVs and the Warriors,

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Speaker 1: Warriors favorites, and the Celtics and the Heat The Celtics

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Speaker 1: are favorites. Before we get to Brandon and Jason, we

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Speaker 1: created a game a couple of weeks ago. Quick reminder.

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Speaker 1: I was in Vegas. I was coming back on the

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Speaker 1: train that takes you from the security gates to the terminal.

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Speaker 1: A guy gets on the tram or the shuttle and

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Speaker 1: like his hand is bleeding all over the place. I

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Speaker 1: give him a band aid. We go our separate ways,

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Speaker 1: and two hours later I board my flight, I take

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Speaker 1: my seat and this guy sits right next to me.

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Speaker 1: What are the odds? I asked people, What are the

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Speaker 1: odds that that would happen? I asked Sean Croner, I

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Speaker 1: asked Nick Giffen, two of the mathematicians here at Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Of course, they broke it down before me, took all

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Speaker 1: the mystery out of it, gave me the exact number

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Speaker 1: of what the odds would be. It was four one.

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Speaker 1: But it did prompt a potentially segment, and so simon

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Speaker 1: a lot of people and again I said this in

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Speaker 1: the last episode. I gotta give credit to Michael and

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Speaker 1: Jen Schiffman, friends of mine who were over when I

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Speaker 1: was telling this story, and Jen looked at me, she goes,

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Speaker 1: that's a segment. What are the odds segment on your podcast?

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Speaker 1: Of course she knows I have a podcast. My wife,

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Speaker 1: who was sitting next to or, was like, you got

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Speaker 1: a podcast? Anyways? Ask people to submit. Michael Ryan wrote

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Speaker 1: this a few years ago. I went to the Dallas

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Speaker 1: Cowboys playoff game against the Seahawks. I attended a tailgate

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Speaker 1: party and got to meet nature Boy himself, legendary wrestler

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Speaker 1: Rick Flair. At the party, I asked Rick Flair to

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Speaker 1: perform his signature move on me the chop. Unfortunately, Rick

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Speaker 1: declined to chop me and that was that. A few

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Speaker 1: months later, I'm in New York enjoying a late lunch

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Speaker 1: at a restaurant near the Brooklyn Bridge. I'm the only

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Speaker 1: person sitting in the bar when in walks an older gentleman.

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Speaker 1: He sits down one stool over from me and orders

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Speaker 1: a beer and a glass of wine. He turns towards me.

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Speaker 1: It's Rick Flair. I introduced myself and explain the insane

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Speaker 1: circumstances of running into each other again just three months

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Speaker 1: later and four miles away. Knowing this would be my

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Speaker 1: last shot, I again asked Rick Flair if he would

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Speaker 1: shop me right here in the restaurant. He politely declined,

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Speaker 1: which was totally reasonable. I offered to buy him a drink,

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Speaker 1: but he climb that too because he wanted to buy

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Speaker 1: me a drink instead. So instead of a Rick Flair chop,

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Speaker 1: I got a drink, a new story. And I'll never

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Speaker 1: forget the name of the restaurant because it was the

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Speaker 1: Brooklyn Chop House. What are the acts? That's amazing? WHOA?

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Speaker 1: Paul the be the man? You gotta breat the man,

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Speaker 1: and I'm saying, um the man? Whoa. We don't just

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Speaker 1: ask questions here at the Action Network, we provide the

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Speaker 1: answers thanks to our award winning much beloved heartbeat of

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Speaker 1: our business predictive analytics team, which includes Sean Kerner and

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffen. Get the fucking nerves to work, all right?

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Speaker 1: What are they fucking doing all day? Nascar modeling, predictive analytics.

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Speaker 1: We're trying to make up games here. They went into

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Speaker 1: their on the request from this listener about what are

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Speaker 1: the odds of seeing Rick Flair in two different places.

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Speaker 1: Nick predictive analytics genius mathematician, give us the odds? Hi everybody? Hi? Alright?

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Speaker 1: So Sean and I we actually did pretty heavy research

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Speaker 1: on this. And given that you know, the Seahawks Cowboys

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Speaker 1: playoff game was in January, why would Rick Flair be

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Speaker 1: in New York City in April? You know, April WrestleMania.

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Speaker 1: So our hero Michael here put himself in this situation

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Speaker 1: in a New York Area restaurant, the chop House, the

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Speaker 1: week of WrestleMania. We have to look at it in

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Speaker 1: the way that like, what are the odds that Rick

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Speaker 1: Flair actually ends up there? And Sean and I went

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Speaker 1: through a bunch of different things. We found out that

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Speaker 1: New York the metropolitan area has a population around nineteen

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Speaker 1: and a half million, but not everybody is a drinker

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Speaker 1: and not already goes out. So we kind of whittled

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Speaker 1: it down and we found that there's about six thousand

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Speaker 1: restaurants in the New York metropolitan area. So then we

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Speaker 1: had to say, well, what's the probability Rick Flair ended

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Speaker 1: up there? And I think Sean had a little interesting

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Speaker 1: nugget on why Rick Flair would actually be more likely

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Speaker 1: to end up at the chop House. Yeah, So, I mean, obviously,

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Speaker 1: our hero in this story is obsessed with Rick Flair, um,

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Speaker 1: so it's more likely he's gonna end up at a

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Speaker 1: place called the chop House. Rick Flair is obsessed with himself,

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Speaker 1: so it's more likely he's gonna at a place like

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Speaker 1: chop House. So that tidbit in this story doesn't make

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Speaker 1: it crazier, it just makes it more likely. So it

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Speaker 1: allowed us to throw a little bit more cold water

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Speaker 1: on these odds. But I'm saying it's more likely that

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Speaker 1: Rick Flair go to a place called the chop House exactly.

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Speaker 1: You know, we also have to consider what are the

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Speaker 1: chances Rick Flairs in New York the week of WrestleMania

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Speaker 1: probably pretty high. We put that at around chance. Then

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Speaker 1: we also have to consider it, well, the average American

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Speaker 1: goes out about five times a week for a meal,

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Speaker 1: but that's much higher in New York City, and it's

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Speaker 1: probably even higher for Rick Flair while he's traveling during

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Speaker 1: the week of WrestleMania in New York City. So we

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Speaker 1: put the probability of him going out for a given

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Speaker 1: meal at around se chance. Like I said about six

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Speaker 1: thousand restaurants he could choose from, so that's one and

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Speaker 1: six thousand, and then Rick Fair is probably not going

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Speaker 1: to McDonald He's probably not going to Sabarros. He's Rick Flair,

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Speaker 1: he's a world champion multiple times. He's probably going to

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Speaker 1: a nicer establishment. So we give it like a seventy

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Speaker 1: five percent chance that if he goes out, he's going

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Speaker 1: out to an establishment similar to the shopouts. So then

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Speaker 1: we also have to consider the time, and the time

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Speaker 1: is another factor that actually kind of flowers the probability

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Speaker 1: makes a lot longer odds. The key factor here in

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Speaker 1: our story was it was an empty place and it

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Speaker 1: was a late lunch, so we can probably assume is

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Speaker 1: a weekday late lunch. Not many Americans are going out

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Speaker 1: at that time time. If you take five meals per

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Speaker 1: week for an average American and there's about fourteen go

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Speaker 1: outable meals, you know, to per day, let's say ballpark,

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Speaker 1: then that would be about thirty chance. But given us

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Speaker 1: a late lunch, it's probably much lower than that. But

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Speaker 1: you also have to consider Rick Flair probably wants to

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Speaker 1: avoid the crowds, still bump it up a little bit.

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Speaker 1: So we gave about a twenty chance that Rick Flare

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Speaker 1: be going out at that time. So you multiply all

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Speaker 1: of those odds point nine point seven five point to

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Speaker 1: five point seven five and one in six thousands, we

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Speaker 1: come up with ballpark one and fifty thous odds that

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Speaker 1: he would run into Rick Flair at that time. And

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Speaker 1: it makes sense. He's going to New York City, he

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Speaker 1: has about six thousand places to choose from. What are

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Speaker 1: the chances he's in up there at that time? Probably

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Speaker 1: about one. And I'm saying since it's called the chop House,

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Speaker 1: that's even lower than that Flare Michaels who just got

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Speaker 1: top to there. Anyways, Brandon Anderson analysts Action Network, Jason

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Speaker 1: tiff Post of Layers Tonight in the Volume podcast Network,

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Speaker 1: we got a lot to discuss. We gotta talk about

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Speaker 1: the Heat and the Celtics, Celtics favored. We got to

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Speaker 1: talk about the MAVs and the Warriors, the Warriors favorite,

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Speaker 1: uh favored. Most people will be hearing this after the

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Speaker 1: Celtics Heat game for Game one is tonight. MAVs Warriors

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Speaker 1: Tomorrow night games Game one for them. Before we get

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Speaker 1: to that, Brandon, I want to ask you this and then, Jason,

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Speaker 1: I want your take. The Suns have gone from a

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Speaker 1: team that last year was in the finals two this

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Speaker 1: year had the best record in the NBA to five

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Speaker 1: games ago, looked like they were a sherlock for at

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Speaker 1: least the Western Conference finals. And now you're wondering if

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Speaker 1: you got to blow up this whole team, Brandon, what

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Speaker 1: is happening? What can fans expect? What do you think

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Speaker 1: the Sun should do? Well? It was a mess. Eton

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Speaker 1: played seventeen minutes in Game seven. His contract is up,

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Speaker 1: So now what happens with Aidan? Does he resigned, does

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Speaker 1: he get trade? Does he just signed elsewhere? We already

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Speaker 1: knew that was a storyline, and that is a juicy

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Speaker 1: way to send that one into the off season. Chris

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Speaker 1: Paul through two games is just like scoring anytime he

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Speaker 1: wants to. And the poor guy turned thirty seven and

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Speaker 1: celebrates his birthday by training into a pumpkin. Chris Paul

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Speaker 1: played so bad in Game seven, I think the Lakers

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Speaker 1: were calling at halftime trying to see if he's available

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Speaker 1: to join the team's like thirty seven year old loshed star.

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Speaker 1: Like the guy fits in perfectly, so Jason, I think

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Speaker 1: that's a future Laker for over there. But it was

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Speaker 1: a mess. I hate to say. They looked uncoached, They

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Speaker 1: looked on preared. They were making uncharacteristic mistakes, turnovers all game,

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Speaker 1: all series. That's the one thing Chris Paul never does

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Speaker 1: is turned the ball over and him and Devin book

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Speaker 1: are just like throwing it to the other team. It

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Speaker 1: It was so ugly and so messy that I almost

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Speaker 1: can't wonder if there's something else behind the scenes. Is

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Speaker 1: there has is something in the locker room? Is there

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Speaker 1: something happening with us sons? Like they were so far

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Speaker 1: off their usual game. And the other wonder that I

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Speaker 1: have now is is this the new Utah Jazz. We

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Speaker 1: We've seen the Jazz pile up regular season wins for

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Speaker 1: years and I famously took the Jazz at fourteen to

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Speaker 1: one to win the Western Conference this year, thinking well,

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Speaker 1: maybe they'll get the bounces this year. They didn't get

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Speaker 1: the bounces. They got bounced. But are the Suns a

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Speaker 1: new Jazz where they kind of broke the regular season

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Speaker 1: code open, but don't have that top level in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: So it was a rough way to go. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: you love the Lakers, uh? I know from listening to

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Speaker 1: your work, Jason, you genuinely do love the Lakers. Uh

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Speaker 1: you see the Sun's collapse like this, and what is

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Speaker 1: your look both as a media basketball professional analyst and

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Speaker 1: as a Lakers homer. Well, for starters, I do have

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Speaker 1: to clarify, and I apologize for not doing this in

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Speaker 1: my previous appearances on the show. I am not a

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Speaker 1: Laker fan. I simply covered the Lakers for the last

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Speaker 1: couple of years. Now, I did fall in love with

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Speaker 1: that Laker team and everything about them. I thought I

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Speaker 1: just loved as a competitor, the way they went about

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Speaker 1: their business every single day. But I found the product

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Speaker 1: this year to be so deeply offensive that that honestly

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Speaker 1: like getting away from them and switching. Like we completely

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Speaker 1: rebranded to hoops tonight actually, and now we're doing a

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Speaker 1: five night a week. Well here in the playoffs it's

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Speaker 1: been every night, but we're covering the entire league. And

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Speaker 1: I can't tell you, as a basketball fan, how refreshing

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Speaker 1: it's been to get into some real quality basketball. Um

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Speaker 1: as far as Phoenix goes, you know, it's super interesting

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Speaker 1: to me is if you look at last year, they

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Speaker 1: were dominant through the entire regular season, dominant through the

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Speaker 1: first three rounds. Um yeah, as Clippers took them to six,

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Speaker 1: but then they beat the hell out of him in

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Speaker 1: that sixth game, right, And then things started really well

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Speaker 1: in the finals, but then Chris Paul fell apart. And

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Speaker 1: when Chris Paul fell apart, they fell apart. Right. So

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Speaker 1: then we come to this year, exact same thing. Incredibly

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Speaker 1: dominant through the entire regular season, pretty dominant in the

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Speaker 1: first round, but you got a factor in that Devin

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Speaker 1: Booker injury as it pertains to that series getting dragged out,

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Speaker 1: and then through two games, well, let's just zoom out

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Speaker 1: a little bit. Through eight games, Chris Paul was averaging

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Speaker 1: twenty three points per game, extremely efficiently, attempting about fifteen

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Speaker 1: shots per game, and then over the course of the

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Speaker 1: last five games of the series, he basically stopped shooting.

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Speaker 1: The only attempted I believe, just under eight field goal

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Speaker 1: attempts per game over the course of that last uh

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Speaker 1: five games of the series. So I, at first I

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Speaker 1: picked it up on some weird body language stuff, and

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Speaker 1: I thought it was related to that incident in the

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Speaker 1: crowd with with some drunk fan trying to like give

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Speaker 1: his mom a Mother's Day hug or something. I was

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Speaker 1: there was something clearly going on with Chris Paul mentally

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Speaker 1: in those couple of games, but then it extends through

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Speaker 1: the end of the series. So my theories he got hurt,

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Speaker 1: I think he I think we have reporting from Marcus

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Speaker 1: Spears that it was a quad injury, left quad injury.

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Speaker 1: But the gist of it is is that the Phoenix Suns,

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Speaker 1: obviously there's a lot of facets to their offense, but

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Speaker 1: the core, full corone of their offense is high pick

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Speaker 1: and roll with Chris Paul and DeAndre and he has

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Speaker 1: to be able to come off that screen and either

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Speaker 1: dictate attention or score. Has either got to score or

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Speaker 1: be a threat to score, and too often towards end

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Speaker 1: of that series, like he wasn't even looking to score.

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Speaker 1: He would throw that swing pass across the court before

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Speaker 1: even putting any real pressure on the defense, and as

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Speaker 1: a result, Phoenix's offense completely decombusted over the quarters of

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Speaker 1: the end of that series. And so it's really this simple,

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Speaker 1: And I know people think I'm crazy, but I think

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Speaker 1: you have to have an elite, top tier superstar, someone

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Speaker 1: that can consistently compromise the defense. Even when you're having

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Speaker 1: a bad night like a bad Chris Paul Knights, really

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Speaker 1: bad at a bad Janice Knight, or a bad Steph

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Speaker 1: Knight or bad Lebron Knight, those nights are still deeply

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Speaker 1: impactful just any attention they dictate from the defense. Right,

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Speaker 1: So if if Chris Paul's not that guy and Devin

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Speaker 1: Booker is more of a number two, then you you

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Speaker 1: are fundamentally flawed at the top stages of the n

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Speaker 1: b A. So I think it's time to start looking

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Speaker 1: at Eton and Bridges package together first, are somewhere around

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Speaker 1: the league needs to be the next focus here because

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Speaker 1: you're just gonna keep running into Luca or running into

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Speaker 1: Janice and losing because they are so much better in

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Speaker 1: these specific environments. And to the Jazz comp it's a

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Speaker 1: perfect example. When you build your team as a regular

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Speaker 1: season engine, it's bound to fail. Dallas was all year

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Speaker 1: kind of an underachiever in terms of like with respect

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Speaker 1: to the rest of the to the rest of the

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Speaker 1: NBA field, but they were prepping a playoff style of

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Speaker 1: basketball that was proven to work. A lot of switching,

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Speaker 1: attacking matchups, really good spacing of the floor, five out concepts,

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Speaker 1: all that stuff. So they rolled into the playoffs and

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Speaker 1: they actually go upp aloud. Their play style is conducive

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Speaker 1: to this environment, whereas for Phoenix it's the exact opposite.

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Speaker 1: If anything, they trended down a little bit, and so

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Speaker 1: I hope they learned their lesson. And it's wild to

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Speaker 1: say that a team not even basically a year removed

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Speaker 1: from the NBA Finals should rebuild, but that's where I'm at.

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Speaker 1: I'd keep Booker and I'd look to flip Bridges and

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Speaker 1: Eton for a big star at this point. All right,

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Speaker 1: well that reeks of desperation. So good luck to the

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Speaker 1: uh Phoenix Suns. UM talk about Luca. MAVs dominated in

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Speaker 1: Game seven. Luca had more points, had as many points

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Speaker 1: in the first half as as the Suns did as

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Speaker 1: a team, and um, look, midway through the third, they

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Speaker 1: had doubled doubled them up and scoring. That's when I

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Speaker 1: went to bed. It was four minutes left. They were

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Speaker 1: up by Now we're looking at game one on Wednesday night.

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Speaker 1: Let's start. I don't predictions yet. I know Simon wants

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Speaker 1: to get more specifics on that, but when did you,

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Speaker 1: Brandon start to think? All right, the Warriors maybe the

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Speaker 1: best thing in the West. I mean I started to

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Speaker 1: think that it maybe like ten games into the season,

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Speaker 1: five games into the season, like way back at the start,

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Speaker 1: the Warriors just came out of the gates, guns blazing,

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Speaker 1: and we're just they looked like the Warriors. They I

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Speaker 1: think they were eighteen and two out of the gates.

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Speaker 1: No Clay Thompson yet, but Steph was the m v

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Speaker 1: P and was going to run away with it. Draymond Greene,

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Speaker 1: my beloved thirty three to one defensive Player of the Year,

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Speaker 1: looked like it was just found money early on, and

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Speaker 1: then he got hurt. Steph got hurt. Steph started pushing

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Speaker 1: for that record and somewhere along the way after that

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Speaker 1: first twenty games, and those twenty games came against pretty

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Speaker 1: easy competition, but everyone kind of got injured and we

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Speaker 1: sort of forgot about the Warriors somehow, because this team

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Speaker 1: has even been in the playoff proper the last two years,

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Speaker 1: and they towards the end of the season got healthy.

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Speaker 1: Clay Thompson had rusty start, but then started really getting

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Speaker 1: going late. Jordan's Pool has been just a revelation. Jordan

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Speaker 1: Pool has been the ultimate X factor for them and

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Speaker 1: X factors are good and bad. Sometimes he has been

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Speaker 1: very bad in the playoffs, and especially his home road

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Speaker 1: flits are huge. He's much better as a lot of

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Speaker 1: young players are at home when he's comfortable there. So

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Speaker 1: he is a big swing factor. But boy, when they

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Speaker 1: get going, when they've got Steph and Clay and somehow

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Speaker 1: they find Jordan Pool, who is a Steph clone, He's

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Speaker 1: He's running around all the off ball movement and the

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Speaker 1: relocating after the shot. Like poor defenses. I've already had

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Speaker 1: to chase step around for thirty five meds doing that

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Speaker 1: all game. Now they got Clay doing it. Now they

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Speaker 1: got Jordan Pool doing it too. Draymond makes everything work. Um,

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, I've got the Warriors Steph Curry shirt on.

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Speaker 1: I've been a Warrior's fanboy for this whole round over

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Speaker 1: the years. These are not the old Warriors. The floor

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Speaker 1: is much lower, but boy, when they hit that ceiling

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Speaker 1: is it's pretty basketball. So looking at this matchup, I'll

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Speaker 1: start with you, Jason and he picture of this Golden

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Speaker 1: State Dallas game one Wednesday night. We got Golden State

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Speaker 1: minus five and or it's up to some books on

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Speaker 1: minus five and a half, but vandal it's minus five

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Speaker 1: right now over under uh two fourteen point five. You

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Speaker 1: gotta play for this game right now. So I'm on

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Speaker 1: Golden State for Game one, the the first of all

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Speaker 1: throughout this entire playoff from We've kind of noticed that

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Speaker 1: Golden State has been better early in series and it

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Speaker 1: kind of faded late, which I think is directly ah

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Speaker 1: It's directly related to their lack of overall size. Like

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Speaker 1: as the series dragged on, Denver size really war on them.

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Speaker 1: The Memphis ditched John Moran and really had a I

389
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Speaker 1: don't think anybody realizes how Memphis was the winning that series,

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Speaker 1: Like it was very very close, and and it just

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Speaker 1: simply despite having a massive chasm in talent offensively between

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Speaker 1: those two teams at into that series, but they were

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Speaker 1: just physically bullied by Memphis out of the facets of

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Speaker 1: the game, right. And so I think as this series progresses,

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Speaker 1: Dallas's advantage will become better. I'm actually picking Dallas in

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Speaker 1: this series, but I think Game one Luca kind of

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Speaker 1: reminds me of Lebron too. He's very feel He's a

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Speaker 1: very feel out type of player. Like Game one, he's

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Speaker 1: just gonna be trying stuff like, let me see if

400
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Speaker 1: I can get this shot off against let me see

401
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Speaker 1: what works against Raymond when I get him on switches.

402
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Speaker 1: Let me see what works against Wiggins if I have

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Speaker 1: to attack him at the end of the clock. Let

404
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Speaker 1: me let me see how like how good I am

405
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Speaker 1: at getting Steph isolated away from the group or Jordan

406
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Speaker 1: Pool isolated away from the group. Like it's a total

407
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Speaker 1: feel out game. I don't even think Dallas last game

408
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Speaker 1: one in both of their series, So from that standpoint,

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Speaker 1: I would be on Golden State for game one. I

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Speaker 1: just don't think it matters much for the long run

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Speaker 1: of the series. Jason, You're about to get a big

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Speaker 1: lesson and NBA gambling not when I take the Mavericks

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Speaker 1: in this series. That was adorable what they did to

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Speaker 1: the Sun's Golden State. Bro. They're talking about Golden State Warriors,

415
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Speaker 1: all healthy, all playing at the top level. Huge mist

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is I would say, handful of pros

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Speaker 1: I've talked to we're gonna talk about the next series

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Speaker 1: to do with Miami. They said this is one of

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Speaker 1: the easier best they've ever made with Golden State to

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Speaker 1: win this series end. They love it that people are

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Speaker 1: drinking the cool ay with the Mavericks who just beat

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Speaker 1: the Sons who tank every year. I mean, we can

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Speaker 1: go back to Steve Nash run with stodhom Are every

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Speaker 1: year the Suns would do great and then losing the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: So it's just I just think people are buying too

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Speaker 1: much into the cool aid of this Mavericks team. I

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Speaker 1: get it, they're up and coming, but Golden State, man,

428
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 1: they're all healthy. It's like, even in that fourth quarter

429
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 1: if it's a if they're down twelve points, I mean, Brandon,

430
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 1: Brandon can talk about are you ever scared about Golden State?

431
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,360
Speaker 1: It's literally Steph Curry, it's two threes, Clay hits a three,

432
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, it's a two point three point game.

433
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 1: It's like, this is why they are just one of

434
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 1: the greatest dynasties have ever seen. So that's really interesting

435
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 1: hearing that you would actually take the Mavericks series, because

436
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 1: I haven't heard anyone put real money on the Mavericks

437
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 1: in this matchup. So again, I'm not the gambling guy.

438
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: I'm the basketball guy. You guys know that. That's that's why.

439
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 1: And I learned something a single time I come on

440
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 1: the show and when I go on with Matt Moore,

441
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: But like it's to me, it's like I and I

442
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 1: I trust the pros, Like trust me, I get. I

443
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: get that they have a lot of really good reason

444
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,159
Speaker 1: to feel the way that they feel. To me, I

445
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 1: just look at it from a basketball perspective, like good

446
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 1: gold Golden State. They're the biggest thing that scares me

447
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,880
Speaker 1: with them offensively is they go through extended stretches where

448
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: their offense doesn't function super well. They have stretches where

449
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: they take similar shots that they took in two thousand

450
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,400
Speaker 1: fifteen to two thousand seventeen range like Prime Warriors, they'll

451
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: take similar shots. The differences is STEP's not the same

452
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 1: guy he was then, Clay is not the same guy

453
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 1: he was then, and Draymond is not the same guy

454
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: he was then. You know. So like they go through

455
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 1: these really cold stretches. The weakness for them on offenses

456
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 1: they do not generate a ton of riom pressure. And

457
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: that what was killing the in the Memphis series as

458
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 1: it dragged on was they weren't getting any drivel penetration

459
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 1: and getting into the lane that was getting them better shots.

460
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 1: And then this is it really is this simple to me,

461
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: there is not There is not a soul on that

462
00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: entire Golden State roster that has a hope of arting

463
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: Luca don Chick Phoenix had. Phoenix had guys that at

464
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: least could make him work. He was trying to get

465
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 1: He was trying like hell to get away from Michal

466
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 1: Bridges DeAndre Ayton, with exception of a handful of times

467
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,159
Speaker 1: he left his feet made him take really difficult fade aways.

468
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 1: Like there were guys. Because Phoenix has such great size,

469
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 1: and because Luca depends on his size to create a shot,

470
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 1: he had a hard time in some specific settings. That's

471
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 1: why his efficiency was so bad throughout the first several

472
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,479
Speaker 1: games of that series. But I think I think Luca,

473
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 1: especially as this series progresses, is going to get any

474
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: shot he wants every time down the floor. I have

475
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: the utmost respect for Golden State. For the record, this

476
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,120
Speaker 1: is not a Warrior's hate take or anything I would have.

477
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 1: I would have picked the Warriors over Phoenix by the

478
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 1: way I just look at it. In terms of the matchups,

479
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: I think Dallas's defense is highly highly highly underrated. During

480
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 1: Phinney Smith and and Reggie Bullock have been incredible on

481
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 1: the defensive end of the floor this year. They were

482
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 1: literally the reason why Chris Paul and Devin Booker struggle

483
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: so much as that series dragged on. I I am

484
00:25:57,600 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 1: a lot higher on Dallas than most people, but for me,

485
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 1: justly from the basketball perspective, I think Dallas is going

486
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 1: to get better shots, and as the series progresses, I

487
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 1: would not be surprised if this is the kind of

488
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: series where Golden States up two to one, you know,

489
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: or or even if they want both at their home games.

490
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:15,120
Speaker 1: But as the series progresses, that's when Luca's brain becomes

491
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: a factor, and that's when Dallas is you know, the

492
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 1: Golden States lack of size could become a factor. Luca

493
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 1: did Lebron did say that his favorite NBA player under

494
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: is Luca. He said it in his Q and A

495
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 1: last night on Twitter. They're very similar there. I always

496
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: say that Luca reminds me of two thousand eighteen Lebron

497
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 1: without the athleticism. So he's basically like the best half

498
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 1: court surgeon that we have in the league right now,

499
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 1: just without the defensive up and without the above the

500
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: rim stuff. But like he is he is. He is

501
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 1: the best in the league at specifically targeting weak defensive matchups.

502
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 1: There are a lot of teams that struggle to target

503
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 1: weaker defenders. Luca is relentless about that. He's even so crazy,

504
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 1: like such a psychopath that he will target your best

505
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 1: defender strictly to get him out of the play so

506
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,479
Speaker 1: that he'll like I watched him target Joannice just so

507
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 1: that he wasn't in help, Like he was like, Oh,

508
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 1: I'm throwing these swing passes and Honest is taking these

509
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 1: shots to Well, I'll just have him guard me and

510
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: then he'll work your Honest into the lane and make

511
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 1: the same swing pass, except for now it's a weaker

512
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 1: defender closing out and they get a better shot. Like

513
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: the dude. The dude is two thousand eighteen Lebron without

514
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 1: the athleticism. It's he's that level of half court creator

515
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: at this point. It's funny, that's how we described Matt

516
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 1: Mitchell to Brandon Um. Jason seems to be in love

517
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:40,719
Speaker 1: with Luca, and I think he's overestimating Luca's value and

518
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: the Mavericks ability to compete in this series. Uh, do

519
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: you agree with Jason or do you agree with me?

520
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 1: Making a Warriors in five bet is a better number

521
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: than Warriors to win the series. So I'm actually a

522
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: lot closer to Jason on this one, and I don't

523
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: like the Layers in five bet. Luca don Chich has

524
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 1: played four playoffs series in his career, all four series

525
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 1: he's taken to six games or longer. I think that

526
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 1: this has a really good chance of going along. I'm

527
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 1: not taking the Mavericks in the series, but part of

528
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: that is because it's a terrible spot to take them

529
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: out in the series right now as a better because

530
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 1: I love the Warriors early in the series, and I

531
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 1: think the MAVs are gonna fall down in the series

532
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 1: down a game down two oh, I think is even

533
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 1: very probable, and that the MAVs will be live after that. Though.

534
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 1: You have to like the Warriors in the series because

535
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 1: they got home game one. I like the Warriors minus

536
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: five at home for Game one since playoffs, so this

537
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: version of the Warriors that's the first title year the

538
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: Larriors in game one or twenty and two or sorry,

539
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: twenty and two straight up in game one, and of

540
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: course a lot of heavily favorite in but as a

541
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: single digit home favorite in Game one, they're eight and

542
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: two against the spread. So that's the spot here against Alice.

543
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: It's not just that they're good and at home, they're

544
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 1: great home team. Dallas is coming off of the Game seven,

545
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: not the hardest game they ever played in their lives,

546
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: but still a long series. Our Rahim Palmer talks about

547
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: Game seven winners are thirty two and nine straight up

548
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 1: in the following Game one, so that's a rough spot

549
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: for them. The other thing too, with the Warriors, their

550
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: offense is just different. It's different than everything, and they

551
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: got all these cuts and back cuts and pats and

552
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 1: ball movement. It takes a while just to get used

553
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: to it. And you know, the MAVs just played the

554
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 1: songs and the Jazz, who are like the most conventional

555
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 1: pick and roll this is how you play NBA basketball

556
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 1: type stuff, and the Warriors are very different than that.

557
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: And I think it's gonna take the out some time.

558
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: Just so, I like the Warriors a lot. In Game one,

559
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 1: those trends are pretty similar. For Game two, I think

560
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: they'll have a good chance to go up to oh

561
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: But as the series goes on, I think there's gonna

562
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: be some value on the maps as a long shot.

563
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 1: For a lot of the reasons Jason said, Luca is

564
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: going to get better as the series goes on. He's

565
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: gonna find his numbers. I like Luca plus two ten

566
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: at FanDuel to leave the series and points, rebounds and

567
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 1: assists per game. I think he has a good chance

568
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: of doing that. And he fills up to the box

569
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: score in a huge way. Uh. Last games this season

570
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 1: after they traded for Stop Poisingus, Donjo average thirty two points,

571
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: nine a half, boards, eight rebounds, and he's pretty close

572
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: to that in the playoffs. The rebounds actually have gone

573
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 1: up a little assist for me are the close one there.

574
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 1: But Luca is gonna put the numbers up. He's gonna

575
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: do a lot of things. I think Dallas's defense is

576
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 1: going to get much better as the series goes on

577
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: and have time to kind of adjust to some of

578
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: those gimmicky things that the Warriors do and adjust to

579
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: chasing those shooters around and all that. At the other

580
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: thing too, with the Warriors, do you think, okay, so

581
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 1: they're up to oh maybe they get home game seven

582
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 1: if it gets there, how do you not just take

583
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 1: the Warriors on that spot? Well, the Warriors, of all teams,

584
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: we know this about them in Their d n A

585
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 1: is built in oh too, oh done, we got this,

586
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 1: We're in the finals. Let's party, let's go, let's go

587
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: and celebrate like they love. Nobody loves to just throw

588
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 1: a game away and just completely no show than the

589
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: Bold State Warriors. It's just part of who they are, Like,

590
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: that's that's the the arrogance and competence is built into

591
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 1: their d NA. You can't take it away because they

592
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: wouldn't be Draymond and stuff anymore. They get the turnovers

593
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: and just start throwing all away. We saw the MAVs

594
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 1: take advantage of that last series. I think Dallas is

595
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 1: going to push back after the early Warriors push and

596
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: I think they can make this series and be a

597
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: real threat because suddenly the series goes long. Now you

598
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 1: got Luca late in a series, and you got maybe

599
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 1: the best player in the court. And that's how it

600
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 1: was a danger. All right, So Warriors and five, who

601
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: do you guys think? Jason, Jason and then Brandon give

602
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: me one name to win the Western Conference Finals m

603
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 1: v P. Don't give me, don't give me analysis. I

604
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 1: want to get to the Eastern Conference Western Conference Finals.

605
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: MVP Jason go. I'm obviously gonna be on Luca. Luca

606
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 1: is about plus um Brandon go. I want a different Maverick.

607
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: Give me a hundred forty one Spencer din Witty off

608
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:39,959
Speaker 1: the Batch Conference Finals m v P longshot. I love it,

609
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,479
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what the number is right now. All right,

610
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 1: Eastern Conference Simon, you're throwing Quickdraymond Green got throw a

611
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: little love on Draymond Green. If he shuts down Luca,

612
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 1: that would be pretty insane. Draymond Green is about plus

613
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: nine fifty right now. I love that, you know, I

614
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 1: love that value. You do love that the playoffs are

615
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 1: heating up and you can make every game feel like

616
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,800
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622
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640
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 1: In Michigan called the Tennessee Redline one eight hundred eight

641
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 1: eight nine nine seven eight nine, or visit one eight

642
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 1: hundred gambler dot net. In West Virginia, we got number

643
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 1: one and number two seeds. What I want to ask

644
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 1: Brandon Emay Udoka. I want to talked about what he

645
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 1: has done since January with this team. What I'm curious is,

646
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: from your point of view, what is different about this

647
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: team that Brad Stevens couldn't get it to do same roster?

648
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 1: What is Udoka doing that is so much better? It's

649
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 1: not quite the same roster. I think Derek White, who

650
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: they picked up the trade deadline, has been a really

651
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 1: big addition for them, just getting a guy, a glue guy.

652
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 1: I know that he's had some games in the playoffs

653
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:12,919
Speaker 1: we're like, oh my gosh, can you make a shot,

654
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: Derek White? But you gotta look at all the other

655
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: things he's doing when it's not shooting, because that's that's

656
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 1: Celtics basketball. It's the passing and the glue guy, offensive

657
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 1: complementary stuff, moving the ball a little bit better with

658
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 1: him out there. And he's a he's a good defender.

659
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 1: Everyone on the Celtics is a good defender. At this point,

660
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 1: they only played good defenders. So I think one thing

661
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 1: Joka did this year that really unlocked the defense is

662
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 1: they took Robert Williams and they said, okay, you're not

663
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 1: gonna be guarding centers anymore. We're gonna put you out

664
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,280
Speaker 1: kind of off the ball. Have you be the help defender,

665
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 1: and we'll put Al Horford and all the action because

666
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: Al Horford is gonna switch, He's gonna he's gonna be

667
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 1: a great defender. We know that from a decade of

668
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 1: ball now, and that is kind of what unlocked the defense.

669
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: Robert Williams was looking like a possible to pensive player

670
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 1: that your candidate until he got hurt late in the season.

671
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart won the award. Really is a team award

672
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: the Celtics. Since January twenty nine, Celtics had number one

673
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 1: defense in the NBA. They also have the number one

674
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 1: offense in the NBA. They just started generating far better

675
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 1: looks and just getting much better shots. Defense becomes offense

676
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:24,320
Speaker 1: because you're getting all those stops and when the defense

677
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 1: is that good. We saw against Milwaukee some of the easiest,

678
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 1: some of the only offense Boston could come up with

679
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 1: was get a stop and then run out and get

680
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 1: something in semi transition before the defense can lock in.

681
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 1: That's gonna be really important for both teams in a

682
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 1: series with so much defense, here, and of course with

683
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 1: Boston you need the threes to fall. But since January

684
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 1: twenty nine, the Celtics are thirty four and nine including

685
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Now, out of those nine losses, five of

686
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 1: the nine losses have been by one bucket, So if

687
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 1: those games go the other way, Austin could be thirty

688
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 1: five and four since the start of February and we

689
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,759
Speaker 1: are two rounds in the playoffs at this point. I

690
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: didn't know. It feels like they just barely got by

691
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 1: the box without Chris Middleton. Wouldn't the Bucks have just

692
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 1: beaten them With Middleton? The Celtics won four games with

693
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:19,760
Speaker 1: Jana's putting up like thirty four, fifteen, and seven, and

694
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 1: they were almost gonna win two more games there there.

695
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 1: Two of those losses were by a bide. Again, they

696
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 1: could have won that series six to one. So I

697
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 1: think that we have to be careful with the narrative

698
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: framing on it. Boston is just really good, and Utoka,

699
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 1: I think, has kind of set up the offense to

700
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: succeed by unlocking what the defense has done narratives. It's

701
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: kind of like thinking the mass and Luca can take

702
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:45,280
Speaker 1: the Warriors deep because of what they did against the Suns, Simon.

703
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: And honestly, it's interesting to hear what you say, because

704
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: a couple of guys I talked to they really love

705
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 1: Miami in this matchup. They think Boston's kind of darling

706
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,760
Speaker 1: of everyone. They just saw what they did in that series.

707
00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: Their fans are obviously way bigger than Miami's and base

708
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 1: that's for sure. But I look at Miami is kind

709
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 1: of the more veteran team with Jimmy Butler, who's been

710
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 1: slept on this whole playoff series. I think statistically he

711
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 1: number two I believe overall and plus minus and what

712
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 1: he brings to the floor every game. So when I

713
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: look at this, I'm all in on Miami and it's

714
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 1: funny that they're plus right now to win this division.

715
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 1: I would love to hear your your view, Jason, What

716
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 1: if Miami loses, uh this first game? I mean, most

717
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 1: people are gonna be coming on Boston here. Is that

718
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 1: one of these right? You think I should just wait,

719
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 1: Betty Miami because they're probably gonna lose game one? Or

720
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: is this you know, extended rest? Is this the time

721
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: to pounce on Miami because what they're coming off four

722
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 1: or five days or rest compared to what two days

723
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 1: for Boston here. Well, we also have extensive evidence that

724
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 1: when Boston gets win, they tend to let their foot

725
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 1: off the gas, particularly offensively, They start to lose their

726
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 1: focus on the offensive to the floor. Brandon, you broke

727
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: down so many of my talking points for Boston that

728
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 1: I don't even really need to get into it all,

729
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 1: Like you hit the nail on the head on so

730
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 1: much stuff. Buston has been my pick win the Championships

731
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 1: since Game two against Brooklyn. I think they have the

732
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 1: best defensive team of this era, even better than the

733
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen Raptors. I think they have the quintessential

734
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 1: modern NBA defense, basically the ability to switch every single screen,

735
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 1: the inability to have any defensive player that is easily targeted,

736
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,800
Speaker 1: and the way that that can stagnate really good motion

737
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,919
Speaker 1: offenses and turn you into an isolation team in bate

738
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 1: you into trying to attack their awesome defenders in one

739
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: on one situations. And as much as their offense has

740
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 1: been their biggest plot, the they and to the reason

741
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 1: why Boston has turned around so well over the last

742
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 1: couple of years, it's email Duck at instilling toughness, which

743
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 1: I think is an important detail there, and then also

744
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 1: taking the bumps and bruises of letting Tatum and Brown

745
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 1: run your offense for two years and letting them stuck

746
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,879
Speaker 1: and letting them make all kinds of mistakes but learn

747
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: how to do it, and so now they're both better

748
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:52,359
Speaker 1: at it, but they're still there's still none of them

749
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,320
Speaker 1: are that high level floor general, So as a result,

750
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 1: they have a tendency to get off the rails a

751
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 1: little bit with their offense, badcot selection, early shots in

752
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 1: the clock. If you looked at this series, Boston won

753
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 1: every single game in the half court according to cleaning

754
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 1: to glass, but but literally Milwaukee stole three games in

755
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 1: the things that surround that static half court environment. So

756
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 1: transition opportunities want two of the games, and then they

757
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:16,959
Speaker 1: want a game on the offensive glass, which was game five.

758
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 1: So like Boston has things that they can get loose with.

759
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 1: So between the letdown of just beating Milwaukee, the fatigue

760
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,399
Speaker 1: of just playing on Sunday in an early physical game,

761
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 1: Miami being super prepared and ready to go, I think

762
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 1: Miami's best chance to to to jump up on the

763
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 1: series is in game one. So I would think that

764
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: that would be the smartest bet. But I view this

765
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 1: as a defensive slug fest between probably the two best

766
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 1: defenses in this field, except for Boston has significantly more

767
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:46,800
Speaker 1: offensive talent in terms of guys that can dribble, shoot

768
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 1: and pass, and so I expect this to be a

769
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 1: defensive slug fest. I would hammer the under in every

770
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 1: single game. Both teams will go in extensive stretches where

771
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 1: they can't score, but Boston will score more, and so

772
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,120
Speaker 1: from there, I think it's that simple. So that's why

773
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 1: I'm on Boston. Is there any player on the Heat

774
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,800
Speaker 1: in an open draft of the talent on both of

775
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 1: these teams that you would take over Jalen Brown or

776
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 1: Jayson Tatum? I would take Jimmy Butler over over Jaylen Brown. Yeah, Tatum,

777
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:16,360
Speaker 1: and then Butler and probably a couple of Celtics, and

778
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 1: then Damn and then the rest of the Celtics. I

779
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 1: think Boston's overall to a talent is significantly better, Brandon,

780
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 1: So you guys seem to be aligned on this series.

781
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:33,800
Speaker 1: Give me any value in betting finals matchups right now?

782
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 1: Warriors Celtics plus one thirty Heat, MAVs plus six hundred

783
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 1: Heat Warriors plus two eighty Celtics MAVs looks like plus

784
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 1: three fifty. Any thoughts on matchups right now? So the

785
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 1: key thing that I'm looking for, And you're right, Jason,

786
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 1: I think are looking pretty similarly on the Celtics. For me,

787
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,800
Speaker 1: I have Boston a tier above the other three teams

788
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 1: remaining at this point. But and listeners will have seen

789
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 1: what happened game one already by the time we hear this.

790
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:07,439
Speaker 1: It's a schedule It's a schedule loss spot in game one.

791
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 1: It's such a rough spot for them coming off the

792
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 1: seven game series. I want it. I want the loss.

793
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:17,239
Speaker 1: I want Miami to go up a game because I'm

794
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: not playing the finals matchup right now. I want better

795
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 1: odds on Boston. I'm looking for my spot. Where can

796
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 1: I I'm I'm a sniper app here. I'm just waiting

797
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,319
Speaker 1: for my Boston number. Where is the number that I

798
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 1: can get right now? It's decent value, but I think

799
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 1: the number goes up. It has to go up. If

800
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 1: Boston goes down a game in the series and Miami

801
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 1: is good, Miami matches up well. Miami could win any

802
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: game this series, certainly any home game. So if Miami

803
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,320
Speaker 1: goes up one OH, Miami could go up to OH,

804
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 1: and if they do, I'm gonna bet Boston again to

805
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 1: win the finals because I will still like the team

806
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 1: better in that spot. It's tough to overcome with two

807
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 1: oh deficit, but Boston just I don't know that I

808
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 1: trust Miami to score in this series. We like to

809
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: think of the heat as heat culture, and it's very

810
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 1: big balance that they have. The heat on offense so

811
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,919
Speaker 1: far have been Jimmy Butler and please will anyone else

812
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:15,879
Speaker 1: make a shot? Baller has been awesome, awesome these playoffs. Look,

813
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 1: I'm a Bowls fan and a timber Rolves fan. I've

814
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 1: I've had the Jimmy Butler experience. This is about as

815
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 1: well as Butler has ever played. And this guy is

816
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 1: putting up triple doubles in the finals a couple of

817
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 1: years ago. He has been awesome. He's arguably been with

818
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 1: Janice a co playoff MVP so far. But the Celtics

819
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: just played honest, just played Kevin Durant before that, and

820
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: this d You don't beat an all world incredible modern

821
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 1: NBA defense with one man playing all of your offense,

822
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 1: You just don't. That's not a winning formula, and I

823
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 1: worry where, especially with Kyle Lowry hurt too, where will

824
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: the Heat come up? With enough other answers, So I

825
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 1: to your question, I want Celtics Warriors, but I want

826
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:06,400
Speaker 1: to wait, or at least wait until this post. I

827
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 1: want to wait for a better number on the Celtics

828
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:12,479
Speaker 1: because I'm looking for Celtics futures, but I want them

829
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 1: to get down early. Simon, you asked about how do

830
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 1: I bet the Heat. I think of the Heat lose

831
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,240
Speaker 1: game one, They're in a huge trouble in the series.

832
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 1: You can't lose game one with a huge rest advantage

833
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,839
Speaker 1: and coming off Game seven, if if the Boston gets

834
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 1: that one, I think this could end up going short.

835
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: I think you're hoping that you get a long series.

836
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 1: You get the Heat win early. So you got to

837
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 1: get the bet in early on Miami because they're probably

838
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 1: gonna win the first game and then I'm looking to

839
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 1: come back in Boston later. Right Jason, it feels like

840
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 1: Brandon has the Celtics and the Warriors in the finals.

841
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: Give me your two teams in the finals, and if

842
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 1: you're not going to back up your whole MAVs. Luca's

843
00:44:54,360 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: amazing take then you have no courage. So I actually

844
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 1: this was actually before I respond to the professional betters here.

845
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 1: If I thought that Boston was gonna beat Dallas, is

846
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 1: it's smarter to bet them on a round by round

847
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 1: basis or to pick the NBA Finals exact resolve of

848
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:18,239
Speaker 1: Boston over Dallas. I would say, given what we've just

849
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:22,480
Speaker 1: talked about, if you want Boston over Dallas, you absolutely

850
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 1: cannot bet it right now, because we both think that

851
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:28,800
Speaker 1: the home teams are gonna win early in the series.

852
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 1: You've gotta wait for the better price. But certainly, the

853
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 1: more exact things you put together, the better payout you're

854
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 1: gonna get if you're right, the more risk you're taking on.

855
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 1: But I love the r O. I I love the

856
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 1: long shot. So for me, if that's the thing you

857
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 1: think is going to happen, Look, we could get Miami

858
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 1: up to oh, Golden State up to oh. And if

859
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 1: you still think at that point Boston over Dallas in

860
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 1: the finals, you're gonna get a pretty tasty number on

861
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:57,879
Speaker 1: that one. You gotta wait for that number, though, I think,

862
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:00,439
Speaker 1: yeah so. But the gist of it is, I view

863
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 1: Dallas as the best mismatch attacking team in the league

864
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 1: versus Boston, the team that is best equips to avoid

865
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: any sort of mismatch. So and I don't think Luca

866
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:12,399
Speaker 1: particularly would struggle. The two guys that I think would

867
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 1: have disastrous series is against Boston or Jalen Bronson and

868
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: Spencer Dinwoodie. And I think Dallas's offense overall would fall

869
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 1: apart there. I'm very high on Boston obviously, but I

870
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 1: think Boston ends up beating Dallas in the finals. All Right,

871
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: there you have it. We got our experts. We got

872
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 1: Jason Timp Wakers Tonight Slash Hoops Night on the Volume

873
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 1: podcast Network. We got Brandon Andon NBA analyst for the

874
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 1: Action Network for my BFF, my companion, my compadre professional

875
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter for Matt Mitchell, our producer. I am

876
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 1: Schad Noman. Download Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast.

877
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:51,399
Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars, say whatever you want

878
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 1: feedback as a gift until next time. W