WEBVTT - Israel, Iran Warn More to Come After Missile Barrages 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.520 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg business 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.440 Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:18.360 stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:23.400 shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance and tech 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:27.360 news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:31.760 with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.520 --> 0:00:36.199 Latest headlines Iran firing a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel. 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:39.360 All of Israel's under fire. The military of Israel says 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:43.479 it does come hours after Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:47.440 and ballistic facilities, killing senior officials, including the commander of 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:48.960 Iran's Revolutionary Guard. 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:51.640 I just want to point out that our blog, and 0:00:51.680 --> 0:00:54.240 these are folks that have been following this situation so closely, 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:57.360 our editorial team, they are pointing out that the rapid 0:00:57.400 --> 0:01:01.360 pace of the Iranian retaliation against Israel, with missiles now 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:06.480 fired hours after Israel's airstrikes, our team pointing out stands 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:09.760 in contrast to previous episodes with Tehran. In some of 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:11.800 those tit for tat moments, it was a matter of 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:14.240 weeks and a lot of rhetoric before there was a 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:17.440 military response. Their point is this was a pretty quick response. 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:19.520 We're talking in less than a twenty four hour period. 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:21.200 Yeah. They note that the ball is now again in 0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:23.720 Israel's court, and the question is will it see this 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:26.200 as a response it can tolerate, or will it soon 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.560 hit iron again. In turn, we want to bring in 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:32.720 executive director of the independent nonprofit a Middle East Forum, 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:35.039 a Greg Roman. The Middle East Forum works too, in 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:38.480 its own words, focus on ways to defeat radical Islam, 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:42.639 work for Palestinian acceptance of Israel, develop strategies to contain 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:46.160 Iron and deal with the great advances of anarchy. Greg 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:49.920 joins us as I mentioned from Philadelphia. Greg, good to 0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:51.520 have you back on the program. The Forum oat with 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:55.320 a piece yesterday before these strikes that says, quote, the 0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:59.440 greater strategic risk is not a decisive Israeli strike, but 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:03.640 allowing a nuclear Iran to feel immune behind its own deterrent. So, 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:06.400 in your view, were these strikes warranted? 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:11.040 These strikes were warranted, and as its ambassador Bolton said, 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:13.280 the plan for this to take place was actually going 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:15.960 all the way back to April. But President Trump asked 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:18.320 Prime Minister net Niahu to give him a sixty day 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:21.600 window to be able to lay away Israeli strikes or 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:24.280 the plan for is really action against the Iran And 0:02:24.320 --> 0:02:27.160 on day sixty one, Israel decided how to act on 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:30.800 its own and unilaterally go after Iran's nuclear missiles program, 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:34.040 nuclear weapons and missile program. The reason being that those 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:37.640 sites that you're now seeing of Iranian missiles falling on 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:40.600 Tel Aviv in civilian areas, if any one of them 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:44.079 had a radiological, chemical, biological, or god forbid, nuclear device, 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:47.000 tel Aviv might no longer be with us anymore. So 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:49.840 Israel decided how to act fast, had to add at first, 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:53.200 and it will not stop until the entire Iranian enrichment, 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:55.400 nuclear and missile program has been eradicated. 0:02:55.760 --> 0:02:58.320 Do you see Israel acting as a proxy for the 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:02.520 United States here? Obviously, the US and the President Trump 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:06.120 that is, has been certainly working with a mission to 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:08.520 get some kind of deal when it comes to nuclear 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:09.680 capabilities in Iran. 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:11.320 That has certainly been a goal. 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:14.240 I don't see this as a proxy. I see as 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:17.480 a partner to the US's national security interests. For the 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:21.240 better part of for presidential administrations, the Iranian nuclear program 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:24.040 is supposed a threat to the United States. However, the 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:27.440 chosen tool for the US has been diplomacy, especially since 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:30.880 the two thousand and three Iranian freeze on its nuclear 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:33.800 weapons program, the military elements of not the civilian elements 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:36.560 of it, but new intelligence that came into the United 0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:39.360 States and the DIA, the Defensive Intelligence Agency, at the 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:42.280 beginning of May, showed that the Iranians were one week 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:45.440 away from a nuclear weapon, and a comparable report from 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:49.440 the Viennese the Austrian intelligence agencies said that Iran was 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:52.880 actively marching towards a bomb. Now this is a European 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:54.840 ally of the United States and Israels saying this. 0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:56.680 Not the US nor Israel. 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:59.640 And I think what really finally encapsulated the US position 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:02.840 of seeing Israel as a partner to have it willingly 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:07.040 kinetically strike Iran's nuclear program was when Secretary of Defense 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:11.600 Peter Hegseth said on Tuesday that he believed that Iran 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:12.960 was developing a nuclear weapon. 0:04:14.240 --> 0:04:15.840 Can I ask you, I mean, Tim and I kind 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:17.839 of we have this conversation or some of us do, like, 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.919 who is it that determines who should have nuclear capabilities? 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:22.760 I mean, I know, if you go back. I remember 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:25.960 studying college the concept of nuclear deterrence, right, you have it, 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:27.800 I have it. Nobody uses it because we know what 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:31.359 the outcome is. Israel is widely believed, some say, to 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:32.560 possess nuclear weapons. 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:38.040 So how was it that we decide Iran shouldn't. I'm 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:38.799 playing a little. 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:41.440 Bit Devil's advocate here, but I'm trying to understand how 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:43.479 peace actually happens in the world. 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:46.640 Well, now, with the Iran being a signator to the 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:49.920 Non Proliferation Treaty the NPT, and also Israel not being 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:53.080 a signator to that treaty, just under international law, Iran 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:56.200 had an obligation to not develop a military weapons program. 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:58.880 But beyond that, I think it was just the common sense. 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:02.520 Israel has never instigated nor started a war that it 0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:04.960 wanted to be able to do in terms of offensive 0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:08.200 capability to either try to take more territory or to 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:11.279 try to impinge on the rights of countries that didn't 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:14.200 attack it first. Unless you look at nineteen sixty seven, 0:05:14.520 --> 0:05:17.320 where you had seven Arab armies getting ready to invade Israel, 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:19.680 and yes they had a preemptive strike at that time. 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:21.680 But if we look back in nineteen eighty one, when 0:05:21.680 --> 0:05:24.120 they struck the Iraqi reactor two thousand and seven, when 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:26.799 they short the Syrian reactor a now June of twenty 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:29.280 twenty five, it was an attempt to stop a program 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:30.640 whose sole design. 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:32.359 Was to destroy the Jewish state. 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:36.400 So I think Israel, with its strategic ambiguity that it's 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:38.920 had for the last sixty years with this nuclear program, 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:41.520 still maintains the right to have that in so far 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:43.640 as it relates to the fact that the Jewish people, 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:46.400 amongst maybe the Armenians and a few others, have been 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:49.760 one of the only victims of a worldwide genocide attempt 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:52.640 by a dictator. Wherein the Iranians prior to nineteen seventy 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:56.159 nine had peaceful relations with Israel. So the Iranian intents 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:58.440 was to create a niclar device to destroy other state. 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:01.560 The Israeli intent for this program is to be able 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:03.080 to defend its state from destruction. 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:08.599 Greg, How is Israel going to know when Iran's nuclear 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:14.440 program has been destroyed to its uh in a way 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:16.120 that the country sees is sufficient. 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:19.760 Well, there's three different indicators through Ellen Sigan and human 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:23.600 first electronics intelligence think of satellite reconnaissance being able to 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:26.320 actually see not just the images that you can take 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:29.719 with a deep range camera on the surface of Iran's program, 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:32.839 but also what you can do through different sort of 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.240 thermoscopic imaging. The second, in terms of signal intelligence, Israel 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:40.800 had indicators that Iran had reactivated an explosives line which 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:42.720 was meant only for the purpose of being able to 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:45.760 create a detonation device for fissile material. In terms of 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:50.080 human intelligence, Iran has had a deep penetration of its 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:53.560 Government of Security Organs GREG and of its nuclear program 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:54.719 by Israeli intelligence. 0:06:54.839 --> 0:06:56.719 I think discreet indicators will give it a sign. 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:59.040 We only have a minute left here, but another headline 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:01.799 crossing at least two Israeli fighter jets have been shot 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:07.799 down over Iran. That's, according to NA also a headline 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:10.880 the US is helping Israel down Iran's missiles. A US 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:14.320 official tells Axios. First your reaction to the two Israeli 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:16.360 fighter jets being shot down over Iran. 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:18.480 I think Israel Hennis plans in place through a sixty 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.880 six y nine rescue unit on countries which border Iran 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:24.080 and reps even in the country to attempt to rescue 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:26.960 those pilots. And in terms of the US helping Israel 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:29.360 with its missile defense. This is something that's placed in 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.720 April and October of last year. And President Trump had 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:34.400 a promise this morning that he would further assist Israel 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:37.800 with its efforts to down Iranian missiles targeting the Jewish state. 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:40.200 Hey, listen, just got about thirty forty seconds here, Greg, 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:42.760 You know, it feels a little complicated, messy. Israel worried 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:44.840 about its state, as you have said, at a time 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:46.760 when it continues to push back it seems on a 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:50.720 Palestinian independence state. I mean, just got about thirty seconds. 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.760 Where are the lines drawn? Where are the fair lines? 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:54.360 Just quickly? 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:57.160 Well, right now, there are no alliance that draw. 0:07:57.280 --> 0:07:59.680 The ambition for the Palestinians to have their own state 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:03.000 die with October seventh when Hamas brutally murdered over one 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:07.760 thousand Israeli civilians and military members alike after that daring, dashing, 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:08.600 brazen attack. 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:09.560 But yeah, the. 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:11.920 Idea for there to be an independent Palestinian state might 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:14.640 take place after the Iranian is dealt with and you 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:16.920 have Pelstonian people who want to have peace with Israel 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:17.800 rather than violence. 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:20.280 All right, time will certainly tell Executive director of the 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:23.520 Independent nonprofit Middle East to Forum. Greg Roman joining us here. 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:25.840 We continue to watch the headlines and the market selling 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:28.239 off on this Friday. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily. 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:32.440 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch 0:08:32.480 --> 0:08:35.240 us live weekday afternoons from two to five e's during it. 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:38.599 Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:41.640 Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:46.120 Right now, we want to get to Dana Stroll to 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:49.280 get her view specifically and what we've seen over in 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:51.520 the Middle East. She is Senior Fellow and Director of 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:54.520 Research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Joining 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:58.600 us from Washington, d C. Dan, just your initial thoughts. 0:08:58.640 --> 0:09:02.480 We've been talking non style here at Bloomberg our last 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:05.080 two hours, but really all day here at Bloomberg, starting 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:08.640 in the wee hours and really yesterday afternoon and into 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:13.439 the late night hours last night. What's first and foremost 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:16.080 on your mind right now as you watch the activities 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:17.440 between Iran and Israel. 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:21.240 Well, first of all, I think this is very different 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:24.280 from what we saw last year. And in both April 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.320 and October of last year, Israel did strike inside Iran, 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:29.920 but in both of those cases it was one night. 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:32.200 It was a couple wave of air strikes and it 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:35.880 was over. This is different right now, the Israeli government 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:39.000 is talking about a campaign, so we're talking about days, 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:43.480 if not weeks. The target set is expansive, up to 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:48.079 twenty senior Iranian officials, missile strikes around the Supreme Leader 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:54.280 Ayatola Hamiene's residence, as well as nuclear installations, military installations. 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:54.679 Air defense, etc. 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:59.080 So an expansive campaign, and Israel clearly has been preparing 0:09:59.240 --> 0:10:00.680 for this very a long time. 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:02.760 So going to go on for a while. 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:04.880 Yeah, I want to talk a little bit about your experience. 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:08.679 You served during twenty twenty one to twenty twenty three. 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:12.080 You were Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East. 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:16.520 It's the Pentagon's top civilian official with responsibility for that region. 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:19.800 Did you ever think when you were in that position 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:25.000 that in our lifetimes we'd see a conflict such as 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:27.200 this between the US and Israel. I mean, excuse me, 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:28.280 between Israel and Iran. 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:32.720 No, Frankly, there's a lot that we've seen since October 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:35.000 seventh that I would not put on my bingo card. 0:10:35.600 --> 0:10:38.359 We generally had views about. 0:10:38.320 --> 0:10:44.400 Iran's support for terrorist proxies Hesbalala and Lebanon, Hamas and Gaza, 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:49.720 the militias in Iraq and Syria, Iran's client state Syria, 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:53.480 but charl asad, all of that is basically collapsed at 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:54.000 this point. 0:10:54.080 --> 0:10:55.920 So I would not have predicted any of that. 0:10:56.480 --> 0:11:00.480 The idea that we'd have Israel striking inside Iran twice 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:05.040 last year, a multilateral air defense coalition standing up to 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:09.520 defeat Iran's attack last year, none of that are scenarios 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.040 that we actively planned for when I was in the Pentagon. 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:13.559 And so now fast. 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:17.240 Forward to today, we have, you know, in a situation 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:21.839 where the past five presidential administrations, both Republican and Democratic, 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:26.200 have looked at and contemplated military action against Iran and 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:29.640 its nuclear program and have decided to pursue diplomacy and 0:11:29.679 --> 0:11:33.840 negotiations instead. And every president says the military option is 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:36.440 on the table, and we have never seen a US 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:40.280 president decide to execute that military option, and yet today 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:41.920 we have Israel doing it. 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:46.480 Israel certainly has the capabilities to defend itself against these strikes, 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:48.760 as we've seen play out over the last few hours. 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:51.880 But I'm curious if you think the threat to Israel 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.080 right now is existential. 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:59.119 I do not think it is existential yet, but it's serious. 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:03.840 So Israel has since October seventh been under threats from 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:07.679 multiple threat from multiple fronts, and they all relate back 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:10.920 to Iran. And what we're seeing, even in the less 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:14.079 than twenty four hours since Israel initiated it strikes inside 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:17.920 Iran is waves of ballistic missile strikes after that drone 0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:19.840 strike that was defeated earlier this morning. 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:22.880 So I believe as we speak, the third wave of 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.320 Iranian ballistic missiles as targeting Israel. 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.320 And we know that there are some injuries, and we 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:31.360 know that some of those ballistic missiles have actually impacted 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.079 in downtown Tel Aviv. And so part of the question 0:12:34.200 --> 0:12:37.720 right now is how long can Israel effectively defend itself 0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:42.080 by itself. We have US military air defense on the 0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:45.199 ground in Israel, and we know that there are ballistic 0:12:45.360 --> 0:12:49.600 missile defense capable Navy destroyers on their way to the 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:54.280 Eastern Mediterranean to support the active defense of Israel. So we, 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.200 I think, can reasonably assume that if this goes on 0:12:57.240 --> 0:13:00.000 for a really long time, Israel would be under strained 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:02.960 to defend itself by itself. And the big question is 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:05.040 what the Trump administration is going to do to put 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:05.720 skin in the game. 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:06.840 What do you think it's going to do? 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:08.839 Well. 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:13.960 We've seen indications that the Trump administration has already authorized 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:19.000 certain kinds of military support, whether it's deconflicting airspace, whether 0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:22.720 it's working alongside the Jordanian Air Force and the Israeli 0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:26.240 Air Force this morning to defeat those one hundred attacked 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:27.960 rones that are on launched from Iran. 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:29.280 And again, we do. 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:34.120 Haves military on the ground in Israel actively participating in 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:37.880 air defense. And now we're putting more US posture, more 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:41.360 military capabilities on the ground in the Middle East. So 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:44.400 that's a serious signal of commitment from the Trump administration. 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:50.199 Commitment is one thing, but an all out conflict between 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:52.880 the US and Iran is a different thing. Do you 0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:56.000 see the possibility of that escalating there? Given the support 0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:59.920 that the US has committed, we are on the. 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:01.640 Knife's edge of escalation. 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:06.360 So right now we are seeing Israel execute a very precise, 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:10.000 very deliberate, very well planned operation. 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:12.480 The reports of collateral. 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:16.120 Damage are very minimal at this point, and right now 0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:19.120 there have been no Israeli deaths, but it looks like 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:23.080 the Iranians have targeted civilian centers in Israel, and whether 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:26.520 or not Israel feels compelled to expand its target set, 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:29.880 how Iran responds to that. There's no question that this 0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:32.760 could escalate. And of course there are tens of thousands 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:36.160 of US forces across the Middle East, five big air bases, 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:39.880 a ton of energy infrastructure across the Middle East, and 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.800 the Iranians might decide to target that as well. 0:14:42.760 --> 0:14:44.440 Dana, None of this happens in a vacuum. 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:46.400 And I just think about the last couple of years, 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:55.120 right Hamas on Israel, Israel on Palestine, and then there 0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:58.760 were other outbreaks, if you will, and I'm just trying 0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:02.360 to understand this. On top of it, We've had Oman's 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:06.000 government come out saying Israel's actions were reckless and would 0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:09.200 undermine regional security. Other Arab states echoed those comments, including 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:13.040 Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. I think 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:16.120 about the United States just in the Middle East region, 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.040 and it seemed like everything was let's. 0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:20.960 Make deals and let's forge forward. 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:25.440 Help me understand kind of where we are in the 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:28.720 Middle East and who is I really want to understand 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:32.640 who's aligning with whom and what the implications of that are, 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:35.960 and then later on China Russia. Like I keep going 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:37.960 back to kind of how we started at two pm 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.320 Wall Street time, help me understand how this is all 0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:45.120 being carved up in terms of relationships potentially well. 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:49.440 Such an important issue and such an important challenge. So 0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:52.880 I think the theme of President Trump's visit when he 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:57.720 went to those three golf countries was business deals, commerce 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:02.200 and a future based on transit, actionalism and economic interests. 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:04.800 And what he's certainly heard from those Gulf countries is 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:07.880 this region has been at war for a very long time, 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.640 and it's been in a really intense period of war 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:13.720 since October seventh. And war is not good for business. 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:16.120 It's not good for our economic growth. So we want 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:20.280 to calm things down and focus on diplomacy. But none 0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:23.920 of those leaders would say that Iran is not the 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:28.360 driver of instability in the Middle East. Iran has an illicit, 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:31.920 illegal nuclear weapons program. In fact, just on Monday this 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:34.280 week you had the IAEA come out and say there 0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:38.920 is no possible civilian explanation for the nuclear steps that 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.880 Iran is taking. We have that deadline coming up at 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:44.880 the Security Council in New York for whether sanctions on 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:48.720 Iran for its nuclear steps will snap back into place. 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:52.280 And it's Iran who funded Hasbalah and armed and trained 0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:53.360 Hisbala in Lebanon. 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:56.120 Hamas and Gaza. 0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:58.320 Made sure that bsharl Asad in Syria could survive as 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:02.400 long as he did, dropping chemis weapons, barrel bombs, torturing 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.840 and starving his own people. It's Aron who is arming 0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:08.720 and directing and funding the Huthis and Yemen and militias 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.200 in Iraq, all of whom do not have at heart 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:16.320 piece or regional stability as a priority for any of 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:19.840 these terrorists. Militias are proxy non state actors. 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:21.879 You're going to have to come back at some point, Dana, 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:24.280 Thank you so much. Dana Stroul joining us. 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:30.640 This is the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily Podcast. Listen live each 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:33.679 weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple Cocklay and 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.720 Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also 0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:40.480 listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:43.720 Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:47.120 So, just so everybody knows, we've been planning to talk 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:50.960 about commercial real estate at exactly this moment, but this 0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:53.639 is the news business. Things change quickly. We have with 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:56.600 us Jay Neveloff, partner and Chair of Real Estate US 0:17:56.640 --> 0:17:59.679 at the law firm Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, where he 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:02.639 folks is on commercial and residential projects throughout the US. 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.960 We're talking development, We're talking financing, We're talking everything. Jay 0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:10.040 joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. We 0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:12.280 are going to talk real estate, Jay, but I kind 0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:14.080 of want to bring everybody into our conversation that we 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:17.160 were having a little earlier. As you walked into the studio, 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:19.600 I pose the same question to you that I asked 0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:23.000 Dana Stroll, who is Senior Fellow and Director of Research 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:26.640 at the Washington Institute for a Near Policy. She did 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.439 serve for several years as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:32.080 for the Middle East, which is the Pentagon's top civilian 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:35.360 official with responsibility for the region. I asked her if 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:37.239 she'd I asked you the same question that I asked her, 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.120 which was, did you ever think you'd live to see 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:41.480 the day where we'd see an escalation such as this 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:46.280 between Iran and Israel? And you said you did. 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:48.600 But my response was most definitely. It was only a 0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:51.280 matter of time before Israel had to take the offensive 0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:54.320 and neutralize the weapons that are in Iran. This is 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.160 an ideal time to do it. President Trump has made 0:18:57.160 --> 0:19:00.560 it clear that he's going to be supporting Israel. But 0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:04.040 President Trump is looking for a lasting piece, and I believe, 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.760 as I believe President Trump believes that the way to 0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:09.600 get to a lasting priest is to stand up to bullies, 0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:13.720 to stand up to things that countries that aren't abiding 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:17.359 by nuclear proliferation treaties. And I think that's what we saw, 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:19.159 and I think that we're going to continue to see. 0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:21.160 The goals got to be to have a lasting piece, 0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:24.600 and what we've been doing appeasing hasn't worked in the past. 0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:27.159 Hopefully this tact will be successful. 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:30.640 You know, it's interesting and I think you know, you're 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:33.919 a business leader. I'm assumed you're very involved in your community, 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:40.680 and I'm just curious, you know why. You know, you've 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:43.199 obviously watched the situation at least, and I'm sure you 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:45.879 have folks that you talk back to in Israel, you know, 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:48.880 talk to us about you know, kind of your vantage 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:52.000 point in you know, this situation. 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:55.959 I actually right before I came on, was texting with 0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:58.159 one of my colleagues who is in Israel with a 0:19:58.280 --> 0:20:02.560 husband for a family event. They were we were talking 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:04.480 about whether she's going to be able to get out 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:07.120 of Israel come back to the United States. And right 0:20:07.119 --> 0:20:09.480 now the airspace is closed and they have a variety 0:20:09.520 --> 0:20:14.560 of flights. It's difficult to live under the constant threat. 0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:18.200 And I know that Israel's had tremendous defenses, They've had 0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:21.000 success with the Iron Dome. But we've got to do 0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:23.320 We've got to take a different tack. What we've been 0:20:23.320 --> 0:20:28.480 doing for the past decade plus two decades hasn't worked. 0:20:28.520 --> 0:20:31.760 They need a lasting piece and hopefully this will be 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:33.280 attack to get there. 0:20:33.680 --> 0:20:37.760 So we should note that this is all connected to 0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:41.359 the markets in the global economy. We spent a good 0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:43.960 portion of our program talking about what was happening with markets, 0:20:44.320 --> 0:20:47.200 what was happening with oil. The FED is meeting next week. 0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:49.280 If we see a spike in oil prices, we could 0:20:49.320 --> 0:20:52.679 see the rate path for the Federal Reserve change. In 0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:57.200 your position advising clients on real estate matters, you think 0:20:57.240 --> 0:21:00.320 a lot about interest rates. How do you look at 0:21:00.320 --> 0:21:03.240 a situation like this actually affecting your business world. 0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:07.560