WEBVTT - Snap Elections, Global Warming, and Maria’s Favorite Hot Sauce 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:25.924 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:25.924 --> 0:00:28.524 better decisions. I'm Maria Kuanakova. 0:00:28.484 --> 0:00:29.404 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:30.004 --> 0:00:32.164 Today on the show, we'll be starting off by talking 0:00:32.204 --> 0:00:36.044 about Emmanuel Macrond, the President of France, calling snap elections 0:00:36.084 --> 0:00:39.444 and what that means for how leaders think about risk assessments, 0:00:39.564 --> 0:00:43.084 especially when they are huge gambles as in this case. 0:00:43.324 --> 0:00:46.044 And we'll talk about the heat wave that's been predicted 0:00:46.044 --> 0:00:48.484 to hit the eastern United States this week, kind of 0:00:48.484 --> 0:00:50.724 as an excuse to talk about climate change, an issue 0:00:50.724 --> 0:00:52.204 I hope we can address on the show once in 0:00:52.244 --> 0:00:56.644 a while, and communication versus reality on long term risks. 0:00:57.164 --> 0:00:58.764 And finally, we're going to be talking about one of 0:00:58.804 --> 0:01:02.484 the single most important effects of climate change, which is 0:01:02.564 --> 0:01:07.644 the potential shortage of one of my favorite condiments, siracha 0:01:07.804 --> 0:01:08.524 hot sauce. 0:01:09.484 --> 0:01:12.564 Even a hot sauce is a hot sauce. 0:01:13.244 --> 0:01:16.324 Okay, Okay, we get we'll have we'll have this debate 0:01:16.644 --> 0:01:23.604 after the break to come. Okay, So, Nate, as as 0:01:23.644 --> 0:01:29.364 you've heard, Emmanuel Macron just did something that is completely 0:01:30.364 --> 0:01:34.324 I mean, it's not completely unprecedented, but it's incredibly risky. 0:01:34.764 --> 0:01:39.684 So we had EU elections right, and it turns out 0:01:39.884 --> 0:01:44.004 that his party did not do that well. National Rally, 0:01:44.044 --> 0:01:47.204 which is the Party of Marine Lapenn got thirty one 0:01:47.724 --> 0:01:51.524 point four percent, and this is the far far right 0:01:51.604 --> 0:01:55.124 party in France, and the New Popular Front, which is 0:01:55.124 --> 0:01:57.244 the left wing alliance, got a total of about twenty 0:01:57.244 --> 0:02:00.924 six percent, and his party got fourteen point six percent. 0:02:01.004 --> 0:02:04.804 So he's the president right ruling party not not doing 0:02:04.844 --> 0:02:07.644 that well. And instead of saying, you know, we need 0:02:07.684 --> 0:02:10.164 to kind of rethink this stuff, we need to do something, 0:02:10.444 --> 0:02:16.044 he decided to call snap elections three years ahead of schedule. 0:02:16.444 --> 0:02:20.284 So on June thirtieth and July seventh, France is going 0:02:20.324 --> 0:02:23.644 to go through two rounds of elections. And this is 0:02:23.644 --> 0:02:25.844 a decision that as far as we can tell, Macron 0:02:25.924 --> 0:02:29.164 did not consult with his government on. The Prime Minister 0:02:29.324 --> 0:02:33.404 was absolutely shocked and it could have huge repercussions for France, 0:02:33.564 --> 0:02:37.324 for Europe, for kind of the rise of right wing 0:02:37.844 --> 0:02:41.884 nationalist movements in Europe. And the reason why I thought 0:02:41.884 --> 0:02:43.844 it was really interesting for us to talk about this 0:02:44.324 --> 0:02:46.844 is because there are some echoes of the types of 0:02:46.924 --> 0:02:49.724 high risk maneuvers that we've been talking about that might 0:02:50.164 --> 0:02:53.724 be an option in the United States, but of course 0:02:53.804 --> 0:02:55.084 it's a huge, huge gamble. 0:02:55.244 --> 0:02:58.684 I already have a couple of points of pushback here, Maria, Yeah, 0:02:58.764 --> 0:03:02.164 please push back night. One point I pushedback is I 0:03:02.164 --> 0:03:11.084 think labeling everything right wing is not very revealing sometimes 0:03:12.444 --> 0:03:15.924 because it neglects differences, including why in France and other 0:03:16.044 --> 0:03:19.604 places that the you know, right wing conservative movements have 0:03:19.684 --> 0:03:25.604 become more popular and more effective. You know, Marine le 0:03:25.684 --> 0:03:30.164 Penn has been trying to soften her party's image. 0:03:29.924 --> 0:03:33.044 But let me, I'm just going to interrupt you right there. 0:03:33.044 --> 0:03:35.284 But we know what the Front Nscionale is, right, and 0:03:35.284 --> 0:03:37.124 we know that it was founded by her father, Jean 0:03:37.164 --> 0:03:42.164 Marie Leapenn, who was just a rampant anti summit. Like this, 0:03:42.164 --> 0:03:44.444 this is not a good party. This is a party 0:03:44.484 --> 0:03:49.284 that's anti immigration, anti Semitic, anti all minorities, racist like this, 0:03:49.284 --> 0:03:50.604 this is like as bad as it gets. 0:03:50.764 --> 0:03:53.484 But you're thinking like an elite. I am a man 0:03:54.204 --> 0:03:56.844 of the masses. I think it's important to understand the 0:03:56.884 --> 0:04:01.124 and democracy. We want to understand why more right wing, 0:04:01.244 --> 0:04:05.804 veiled ideas might sometimes become popular in some cases because 0:04:05.804 --> 0:04:10.364 they're paired with economic liberalism or maybe should say economic 0:04:10.524 --> 0:04:13.284 or left wing policies where you have a welfare state, 0:04:13.324 --> 0:04:16.724 you're not too concerned about budget deficits. You might even 0:04:16.764 --> 0:04:20.084 tax the rich to some degree. Look, if I go 0:04:20.164 --> 0:04:24.164 to my hedge fund poker game or whatever, people there describe. 0:04:23.804 --> 0:04:25.804 Themselves of the. 0:04:27.484 --> 0:04:32.524 People describe themselves as socially liberal but fiscally conservative or 0:04:32.524 --> 0:04:36.284 moderate right. Those are not typical people. What these parties 0:04:36.324 --> 0:04:40.924 have figured out is that if you're going to have 0:04:41.844 --> 0:04:46.044 right wing populism, you don't necessarily need right wing conservative 0:04:46.044 --> 0:04:49.524 economics to go along with that. Well, they will. They 0:04:49.524 --> 0:04:55.484 will claim to want to protect the welfare state. They 0:04:55.564 --> 0:04:58.764 are not very concerned about things like budget deficits, which 0:04:58.804 --> 0:05:05.564 are seen as the province of centrists. Even Trump, to 0:05:05.724 --> 0:05:10.484 some degree, he's not Paul Ryan in terms of talking 0:05:10.484 --> 0:05:15.604 about like performing entitlement programs. Is willing to balloon the 0:05:15.644 --> 0:05:18.724 deficit to cut taxes without necessarily cutting spending. They did 0:05:18.844 --> 0:05:21.844 try to kill Obamacare in Trump's first term in office. 0:05:21.844 --> 0:05:25.444 They've talked less about that this time. Maybe Democrats should 0:05:25.484 --> 0:05:30.884 talk more about it. But, like you know, cultural grievances 0:05:31.244 --> 0:05:35.924 that are often based in senophobia or racism, paired with 0:05:36.524 --> 0:05:39.764 the welfare state, which is a very popular program sometimes 0:05:39.804 --> 0:05:43.164 kind of left leaning economics is part of the reason 0:05:43.244 --> 0:05:45.764 these parties around the world have been more have been 0:05:45.764 --> 0:05:47.564 more effective now. 0:05:47.524 --> 0:05:51.004 And I think that that actually is a very important point. So, yes, 0:05:51.924 --> 0:05:54.444 you know everything that I that I said, I think 0:05:54.524 --> 0:05:56.684 stance about this party and why Marine the pen is 0:05:56.684 --> 0:06:00.364 actually incredibly dangerous. However, I think it's important to note 0:06:00.444 --> 0:06:04.804 that in these elections that just happened, the party one 0:06:05.044 --> 0:06:08.124 ninety three percent of communes, which are the local districts, 0:06:08.204 --> 0:06:10.564 came in first, right out, out of all of the 0:06:10.604 --> 0:06:13.844 parties in ninety three percent of the communes in France, 0:06:14.124 --> 0:06:17.524 which is huge because it means that they are finally 0:06:17.564 --> 0:06:21.124 making inroads into places where historically they never have before. 0:06:21.524 --> 0:06:24.404 And so I think that you're making a very valid 0:06:24.444 --> 0:06:27.484 point that even though we might see, okay, this is 0:06:27.484 --> 0:06:29.644 what the real agenda here is. And it's really scary 0:06:30.404 --> 0:06:34.324 for voters who are looking to okay, you know, how 0:06:34.364 --> 0:06:37.404 do we make our daily life better. We don't like Macron, 0:06:37.444 --> 0:06:39.884 we don't like that he raised the retirement age. He's 0:06:39.924 --> 0:06:42.724 making us work right, Macron is not popular. We're going 0:06:42.804 --> 0:06:46.044 to vote for this for this other party, So kind 0:06:46.044 --> 0:06:47.724 of I think one of the bigger there are two 0:06:47.724 --> 0:06:49.284 big things here. One is the one that you just 0:06:49.324 --> 0:06:51.884 pointed out that they are making inroads and they have 0:06:52.004 --> 0:06:54.004 figured out a way to kind of connect to the masses, 0:06:54.044 --> 0:06:55.484 and I think that that's something we're seeing in the 0:06:55.604 --> 0:06:59.964 United States too. But I think the other thing is, 0:07:00.644 --> 0:07:04.604 you know, how risky then is it to try to 0:07:05.364 --> 0:07:08.164 call a snap election right now and say, well, fine, 0:07:08.204 --> 0:07:11.684 you really want these guys, Let's see what happens. Because 0:07:11.724 --> 0:07:14.364 I think that this is actually potentially there are two 0:07:14.404 --> 0:07:17.324 things that he could be thinking, at least in my mind. 0:07:17.724 --> 0:07:20.564 Number One, we're going to win, right like Number one, 0:07:20.604 --> 0:07:23.164 when push comes to shove, I'll be able to assert 0:07:23.244 --> 0:07:27.244 that people actually want more moderate politics, that they don't 0:07:27.284 --> 0:07:30.164 really want this far right. Number Two, we're going to lose. 0:07:30.444 --> 0:07:35.324 And that's okay because the presidential elections aren't for several years, 0:07:35.644 --> 0:07:37.964 and people are actually going to get a taste of 0:07:38.004 --> 0:07:41.524 what it means to have this far right force kind 0:07:41.524 --> 0:07:43.764 of controlling a lot of the political agenda. They're not 0:07:43.804 --> 0:07:46.164 going to like it. And then come election time, Marine 0:07:46.244 --> 0:07:49.724 Leapen will not win the presidency and our party will 0:07:49.764 --> 0:07:52.724 be in a much stronger position. Both of these things 0:07:52.724 --> 0:07:55.204 are incredibly risky ways of thinking to my mind. 0:07:56.484 --> 0:07:58.724 Yeah, there are a couple things here. I mean, first 0:07:58.764 --> 0:08:00.724 of all, thank you for the clarification on how this 0:08:00.764 --> 0:08:04.044 is not a presidential election, which is not scheduled until 0:08:04.084 --> 0:08:08.964 twenty twenty seven. For people's context, in the previous election, 0:08:08.964 --> 0:08:11.764 which is twenty two, they're five years apart. In France, 0:08:13.084 --> 0:08:16.204 Macron defeated the Pen by quite a bit, fifty nine 0:08:16.244 --> 0:08:20.284 percent to forty one percent in the second round runoff. Right, 0:08:20.364 --> 0:08:22.284 there are a whole bunch of different parties in France. 0:08:22.284 --> 0:08:25.604 There actually are like kind of a viable left, center 0:08:25.684 --> 0:08:29.604 and right plus weird i don't know, Gallic, Celtic whatever 0:08:29.644 --> 0:08:34.364 parties here and there. But in that final two, in 0:08:34.404 --> 0:08:36.604 that head to head match against matchup against the Pen, 0:08:37.284 --> 0:08:42.244 despite being unpopular himself, he won by a pretty healthy margin. 0:08:42.444 --> 0:08:45.764 I mean, you know, frances is still one of the 0:08:45.764 --> 0:08:48.564 most liberal and kind of many senses of that term 0:08:48.964 --> 0:08:53.044 countries in Europe. The prime minister is uh, this young 0:08:53.084 --> 0:08:55.404 gay guy for example, Right, I mean, it's a country 0:08:55.444 --> 0:08:59.284 that like has always kind of had like a proud 0:08:59.604 --> 0:09:03.524 tradition of of political diversity, but including being you know, 0:09:03.604 --> 0:09:07.204 proudly left wing in certain ways. So part of way 0:09:07.244 --> 0:09:11.444 when I talk about this summary with you is when 0:09:11.444 --> 0:09:16.564 people say the term risky. There are a couple of 0:09:16.564 --> 0:09:18.884 ways in which that can be abused, I think right 0:09:19.284 --> 0:09:22.484 one is that sometimes risky is just a euphemism for stupid, 0:09:23.244 --> 0:09:26.124 Like it may have been really fucking stupid for McCrone 0:09:26.204 --> 0:09:30.284 to call this election at this time. Right, it's a 0:09:30.404 --> 0:09:35.404 bad time not just for incumbent parties in France but everywhere. 0:09:35.444 --> 0:09:39.444 In the UK election set for July fourth, Conservatives are 0:09:39.484 --> 0:09:42.284 set to get destroyed to the point where the Tories 0:09:42.324 --> 0:09:44.964 may not even be the second largest party anymore. Now. 0:09:45.004 --> 0:09:48.444 In the US election, Joe Biden is currently losing we've 0:09:48.484 --> 0:09:50.124 talked about on the show by a little bit in 0:09:50.124 --> 0:09:55.084 the polls to Donald Trump. In India, Mody just saw 0:09:55.124 --> 0:09:57.084 a big demotion in the number of seats that his 0:09:57.164 --> 0:10:00.924 alliance had, so the timing like couldn't be much worse. 0:10:02.004 --> 0:10:05.004 And if you look at polls, then his group, which 0:10:05.044 --> 0:10:08.684 is called Ensemble, there's some fancy or French name. I'm 0:10:08.724 --> 0:10:10.164 not gonna try renaissance. 0:10:10.884 --> 0:10:15.404 Yeah, you're talking about Macron's party, Crown's Party. 0:10:15.564 --> 0:10:19.924 His party is in third place behind the right wing 0:10:20.964 --> 0:10:24.884 coalition in the lift wing coalition and has only declined 0:10:24.884 --> 0:10:27.804 in the one or two polls since the announcement was made. 0:10:29.004 --> 0:10:32.804 And listen, it's a different system where the campaign takes 0:10:32.844 --> 0:10:35.124 place much more quickly than in the US. That means 0:10:35.164 --> 0:10:38.244 the polls can move more quickly. But like, but this 0:10:38.404 --> 0:10:44.524 is not a good time to be an incumbent centrist technocrat. 0:10:46.164 --> 0:10:49.364 It's not happy times for that for that type of politician. 0:10:49.804 --> 0:10:54.804 And and Macron is like swimming upstream into that. So 0:10:54.924 --> 0:10:57.124 risky may just mean stupid. There's also a bias, I 0:10:57.164 --> 0:11:05.164 think toward assuming that the status quo is safe and 0:11:05.204 --> 0:11:07.924 any change is risky. Right, Like I've argued in the 0:11:08.084 --> 0:11:11.204 US that maybe and it saysn't maybe people take mistake 0:11:11.284 --> 0:11:13.284 me as saying no, Joe Biden definitely should have make 0:11:13.284 --> 0:11:17.564 sure why But like, you know, in some ways, if 0:11:17.884 --> 0:11:23.964 hypothetically Biden were to improve Democrats' chances of defeating Trump 0:11:24.444 --> 0:11:28.444 by stepping aside for somebody else at the convention, is 0:11:28.484 --> 0:11:30.804 that risky? I mean, I mean, in some ways it 0:11:30.804 --> 0:11:32.844 makes the risk of Trump less. If I don't know 0:11:32.924 --> 0:11:34.364 that's true, I'm just saying it's like within the realm 0:11:34.404 --> 0:11:37.884 of possibility, right, you know here, I mean, so here 0:11:37.924 --> 0:11:40.444 he did make a surprising change that is a deviation 0:11:40.484 --> 0:11:43.604 from the status quo, but like sometimes pursuing the status quo, 0:11:43.964 --> 0:11:47.084 like in climate change, as we'll talk about. Right, if 0:11:47.084 --> 0:11:48.724 we were to be just like, oh, we're not gonna 0:11:48.764 --> 0:11:52.484 bother with any of these greenhouse gas reductions, right, I mean, 0:11:52.484 --> 0:11:55.644 that would be the status quo. It's riskier than probably 0:11:55.844 --> 0:11:58.564 switching to alternative energy, no. 0:11:58.684 --> 0:12:00.684 For sure, for sure, And I think that it's really 0:12:00.764 --> 0:12:04.924 important to qualify what we mean by risky here. And 0:12:05.084 --> 0:12:07.884 I think that some people, so Sarkazi actually came out 0:12:08.124 --> 0:12:12.124 very vehemently against this and said that he probably thinks 0:12:12.124 --> 0:12:14.244 that it's risky in the first sense of the word, 0:12:14.244 --> 0:12:17.204 as in stupid, that this was a really really dumb call, 0:12:17.924 --> 0:12:20.604 and he was very vocal about that. And I think 0:12:20.644 --> 0:12:24.484 he called it playing Russian Roulette with the French government, 0:12:24.524 --> 0:12:27.404 which is an interesting way of looking at it. But 0:12:28.084 --> 0:12:31.324 if we look if we just look at precedent, right 0:12:31.484 --> 0:12:34.684 when these types of gambles have happened over the last 0:12:34.724 --> 0:12:38.804 few years, like Brexit didn't go so well, David Cameron 0:12:38.844 --> 0:12:41.324 didn't do so well, like when you when you when 0:12:41.324 --> 0:12:44.484 you do these sorts of like okay, well, find let's 0:12:44.524 --> 0:12:47.484 throw it to the people. I think your second point 0:12:47.524 --> 0:12:50.244 that this is just not a great time for throwing 0:12:50.284 --> 0:12:53.324 it to the people in this particular way, at this 0:12:53.364 --> 0:12:56.764 particular moment. If you're someone like Macro, to me, that resonates, 0:12:57.164 --> 0:13:00.204 and so I wish you know, I wonder we obviously 0:13:00.204 --> 0:13:02.404 don't know what's going on behind the scenes. You would 0:13:02.404 --> 0:13:05.764 think that with such a consequential decision that you would 0:13:05.764 --> 0:13:08.684 consult people. Right, with decision making, it's usually good to 0:13:08.724 --> 0:13:12.724 consult other people who might have a point of view. 0:13:12.724 --> 0:13:14.524 But it was very clear that like the Prime Minister 0:13:14.644 --> 0:13:17.164 was not consulted, that very key people were not consulted. 0:13:17.564 --> 0:13:20.164 And so to me, that's a very strange way of 0:13:20.244 --> 0:13:24.604 making a risk assessment that has potentially very long reaching 0:13:24.644 --> 0:13:26.204 consequences for your country. 0:13:26.484 --> 0:13:29.804 Well, what if mccron, like most politicians, is an ego 0:13:29.804 --> 0:13:32.604 fucking maniac and is doing the thing you were talking 0:13:32.644 --> 0:13:35.284 about earlier, Maria, which is to set himself up for 0:13:35.284 --> 0:13:38.804 twenty twenty seven right that if you empower the right 0:13:38.844 --> 0:13:41.484 wing more right and make la Penn who he beat 0:13:41.524 --> 0:13:45.244 by whatever it was, seventeen points last time, he may 0:13:45.324 --> 0:13:48.004 figure that you'll see the right wing getting power and 0:13:48.804 --> 0:13:51.284 you know, in most of the world, certainly the United States, 0:13:51.324 --> 0:13:54.604 which I know the best. Obviously, there is a phenomenon 0:13:54.644 --> 0:13:58.124 known as thermostatic public opinion, which means that you tend 0:13:58.124 --> 0:14:00.604 to turn the temperature in the opposite direction of where 0:14:00.604 --> 0:14:02.924 the environment is. Right, if it's too hot in the room, 0:14:03.044 --> 0:14:05.284 you turn the thermostat down. If it's too cold, you 0:14:05.284 --> 0:14:09.964 turn the thermostat up. So a dose of right wingism 0:14:10.324 --> 0:14:13.124 coupled with dysfunction, right, I mean, I don't think anyone's 0:14:13.124 --> 0:14:15.924 saying anyone's gonna have a particularly compelling majority in France 0:14:16.004 --> 0:14:21.284 is weird. Technically Macron appoints the prime minister, but subject 0:14:21.324 --> 0:14:23.604 to like a recall vote basically from the legislature. So 0:14:23.644 --> 0:14:26.444 you could have like it an you know, ugly two 0:14:26.524 --> 0:14:31.924 headed step child McCrone governing with some conservative and so 0:14:32.164 --> 0:14:34.684 dysfunctional mess and maybe he figures, Okay, that's going to 0:14:34.724 --> 0:14:37.484 elevate La Penn and then and then I win the 0:14:37.564 --> 0:14:40.324 runoff against her the second round against her again in 0:14:40.364 --> 0:14:42.364 twenty twenty seven. So maybe that's maybe that's why you 0:14:42.404 --> 0:14:45.764 don't consult other people or like, look at Joe Biden. 0:14:46.284 --> 0:14:48.884 You know, if you could be persuaded that it's in 0:14:48.964 --> 0:14:52.364 Joe Biden or in Democratic Party's best interest to have 0:14:52.444 --> 0:14:54.644 another Candy or maybe better. I mean, I think clearly 0:14:54.644 --> 0:14:57.004 a year ago, if he had an open primary, that 0:14:57.004 --> 0:14:58.884 would have been better off. It may not be in 0:14:58.964 --> 0:15:05.004 Biden's best interest though, right, and the average politician, even 0:15:05.044 --> 0:15:08.364 the nice liberals, Maria, even the people you're inclined to 0:15:08.364 --> 0:15:12.044 think are the good guys, are fucking egomaniacs. I can't 0:15:12.204 --> 0:15:16.004 imagine that he thought that. I don't know, I don't 0:15:16.044 --> 0:15:16.684 know them. 0:15:17.284 --> 0:15:22.324 Yeah no, but yeah, go ahead, good, No, you say, 0:15:22.484 --> 0:15:25.724 we just got our ass kicked in these EU elections, 0:15:25.964 --> 0:15:28.324 Let's have another election in a few weeks Like that 0:15:28.444 --> 0:15:31.604 seems fucking stupid, unless you're playing some type of long 0:15:32.004 --> 0:15:35.364 selfish I guess i'd say long game for twenty twenty seven. 0:15:35.844 --> 0:15:37.724 Yeah no, And that was the very cynical part of 0:15:37.764 --> 0:15:41.004 my mind that kind of crafted that as the potential 0:15:41.044 --> 0:15:43.524 motivation behind what he's doing. But I think that it 0:15:43.604 --> 0:15:47.684 might actually be the more accurate reason. And so and 0:15:47.724 --> 0:15:50.324 so I do think that that you're right, I mean, 0:15:50.644 --> 0:15:53.284 to get to the pinnacle of politics like you do, 0:15:53.404 --> 0:15:56.244 have to be How did you call them fucking egomaniacs? Yeah, 0:15:56.324 --> 0:15:58.844 I think that that's a good that that's a good 0:15:58.884 --> 0:16:02.524 way of thinking about it. And so it might at 0:16:02.564 --> 0:16:04.564 the end of the day be an ego play, but 0:16:04.964 --> 0:16:07.244 you know you are, you are playing with the fate 0:16:07.284 --> 0:16:09.204 of Europe. So I think that as we kind of 0:16:09.204 --> 0:16:11.604 as we think about this, as we look at the 0:16:11.604 --> 0:16:14.484 next few weeks, it will be really interesting to see 0:16:14.524 --> 0:16:17.964 how this plays out in Europe, and Nate, let's let's 0:16:18.004 --> 0:16:22.364 revisit this after those elections to see if it in 0:16:22.404 --> 0:16:27.404 any way affects your thinking about Biden's resignation potentially and 0:16:27.444 --> 0:16:30.924 how like a high risk gamble like that might look 0:16:30.964 --> 0:16:32.044 in the United States. 0:16:32.244 --> 0:16:34.644 We will definitely chick in Maria. These all these fucking 0:16:34.684 --> 0:16:37.804 European elections are interfering with my plans to focus only 0:16:37.844 --> 0:16:41.364 on poker during the main event. But but in between 0:16:41.364 --> 0:16:44.684 my time reaching day six again, I'll check in on 0:16:44.684 --> 0:16:51.324 how mcgrone's doing. We'll be back in a minute. 0:16:57.644 --> 0:17:00.964 Nate prepared to die. Let's hear heart. I've you know, 0:17:01.084 --> 0:17:04.204 I was talking with my parents the other day and 0:17:04.204 --> 0:17:06.844 my parents are in Boston and I'm in Las Vegas 0:17:06.884 --> 0:17:09.964 right now, and they were complaining. They're like, oh my god, 0:17:09.964 --> 0:17:11.804 it's about to be one hundred degrees and like one 0:17:11.844 --> 0:17:14.924 hundred percent humidity, and it's already very hard to breathe. 0:17:14.924 --> 0:17:17.164 And I was like, oh, it's ninety degrees and zero 0:17:17.204 --> 0:17:22.044 percent humidity in Las Vegas. We have completely reversed. And 0:17:22.204 --> 0:17:23.684 I think this is the beginning of a week where 0:17:23.724 --> 0:17:26.604 that is true because a heat wave is hitting most 0:17:26.604 --> 0:17:28.684 of the country but not Nevada. 0:17:29.164 --> 0:17:32.164 Yeah, New York is protected to get up to the 0:17:32.204 --> 0:17:35.564 mid low to mid nineties later this week. Places like 0:17:35.604 --> 0:17:39.684 Pittsburgh maybe up to ninety nine one hundred degrees. This 0:17:39.764 --> 0:17:43.204 is not that that that that hot, except for the 0:17:43.204 --> 0:17:45.564 time of year. That is, we're still in mid to 0:17:45.644 --> 0:17:49.244 late June. It's technically still spring. By the way, Maria, Yeah, 0:17:49.284 --> 0:17:51.564 we got four more days or two more when you're yeah, 0:17:51.564 --> 0:17:51.924 we haven't. 0:17:51.964 --> 0:17:54.444 We haven't gotten to the summer solstice yet. 0:17:54.724 --> 0:18:00.204 Correct. But but these are potentially record breaking temperatures for 0:18:00.204 --> 0:18:02.964 for the time of year that they're in. This is 0:18:03.004 --> 0:18:06.204 not a meteorology podcast, but I did kind of want 0:18:06.244 --> 0:18:08.484 to use a segment as an excuse to talk about 0:18:09.564 --> 0:18:15.764 climate change and risk communication around climate change. It's early 0:18:15.804 --> 0:18:17.724 in the Lifeless Show. It's not an issue we've talked about. 0:18:17.804 --> 0:18:20.684 Yet I think one problem with climate change is that 0:18:20.844 --> 0:18:25.924 like it's something happening slowly and kind of constantly over time. 0:18:26.924 --> 0:18:29.764 By the way, if you look at data from the 0:18:29.804 --> 0:18:33.004 Met Office Hadley Center in the UK, and I'm aware 0:18:33.044 --> 0:18:34.644 I used to be more of a climate change nerd. 0:18:34.684 --> 0:18:38.804 I'm aware there are debates over these different measurements, but 0:18:38.924 --> 0:18:40.844 from this measurement, which is pretty consistent with what I 0:18:40.884 --> 0:18:45.604 see elsewhere, twenty twenty three was the hottest year in 0:18:45.684 --> 0:18:49.564 modern recorded history, with the mean global temperature anomaly one 0:18:49.564 --> 0:18:52.244 point one degree celsius. By the way, Celsius fucking sucks 0:18:52.244 --> 0:18:55.524 Fahrenheit so much better. Zero one hundred zero was cold. 0:18:55.604 --> 0:18:57.564 Hundred is hot, the best fucking scale on Earth. And 0:18:57.604 --> 0:19:00.244 you're trying to use celsius anyway, though this is denominated 0:19:00.244 --> 0:19:01.244 in celsius. 0:19:00.844 --> 0:19:03.484 Zia, the zero is actually the freezing in celsius. That's 0:19:03.524 --> 0:19:06.044 why that kind of makes sense. But I would much 0:19:06.124 --> 0:19:10.324 rather know when it's fucking hot, because that's what we're 0:19:10.324 --> 0:19:13.044 talking about climate change. That's what matters when we're talking 0:19:13.044 --> 0:19:15.484 about these kinds of things. So one degree shift in 0:19:15.564 --> 0:19:19.884 celsius is equal to more than two degrees shift in fahrenheit. 0:19:20.204 --> 0:19:22.724 So you have these jumps, you're like, oh my god, 0:19:22.764 --> 0:19:24.964 you know it's one degree hotter today. Now I want 0:19:24.964 --> 0:19:26.804 to know that it's five degrees hotter, that it's ten 0:19:26.844 --> 0:19:29.564 degrees hotter. And so I think that when you're communicating 0:19:29.644 --> 0:19:32.724 as a psychologist, when we're talking about climate change, when 0:19:32.724 --> 0:19:35.764 we're talking about risk, when we're talking about heat, fahrenheit 0:19:35.884 --> 0:19:38.244 is absolutely the way to go, because that shit is 0:19:38.284 --> 0:19:39.764 way more impressive than celsius. 0:19:39.884 --> 0:19:44.604 Yeah, you can take your kilometers in your centigrade temperature 0:19:44.644 --> 0:19:48.404 scale and shove it metric system, give it to a 0:19:48.444 --> 0:19:52.244 cat or something. We're Americans. We have fahrenheit. Anyway, though, 0:19:53.004 --> 0:19:59.004 the table that I'm reading from claims credibly that global 0:19:58.964 --> 0:20:03.084 tempatures were one point one degree centigrade celsius higher in 0:20:03.124 --> 0:20:05.164 twenty twenty three than they have been over the long 0:20:05.244 --> 0:20:08.884 term pre global warming period. So far in twenty twenty four, 0:20:08.964 --> 0:20:12.884 they're one point two to three degrees celsiu is higher 0:20:12.924 --> 0:20:16.364 than the long term trend you'd remembered for now these 0:20:16.404 --> 0:20:18.604 you know, this does fluctuate up and downward. These may 0:20:18.764 --> 0:20:21.684 prove to be particularly bad years. The long term trend 0:20:21.684 --> 0:20:26.724 is pretty unmistakable and we're already nearing the one point 0:20:26.804 --> 0:20:32.724 five degrees sort of best optimistic maybe now at this point, frankly, 0:20:33.444 --> 0:20:37.524 not the very realistic case that's been the target target 0:20:37.764 --> 0:20:42.124 warming rise of climate activists for years. So we're already 0:20:42.164 --> 0:20:45.124 kind of we're already kind of seeing the evidence of this, 0:20:45.284 --> 0:20:47.284 not that you need too much of a microscope to 0:20:47.284 --> 0:20:50.044 find it. The other thing too, is that, like I 0:20:50.044 --> 0:20:52.844 think our readers can imagine, like what a bell curve 0:20:52.884 --> 0:20:56.724 looks like a normal distribution, you can imagine that if 0:20:56.724 --> 0:20:59.564 you kind of shift that bell curve over to the right, 0:20:59.644 --> 0:21:02.164 because now the average temperature and yes there's tons of 0:21:02.164 --> 0:21:05.844 fluctuation over the course of the year, but if the 0:21:05.884 --> 0:21:11.204 average temperature is two or three degrees fahrenheit hotter, you 0:21:11.244 --> 0:21:13.884 can imagine that, like right tail the graph that crosses 0:21:14.004 --> 0:21:17.164 past like ninety nine degrees or one hundred that actually 0:21:17.164 --> 0:21:19.604 occurs a lot more often, And like the number of 0:21:19.644 --> 0:21:26.284 heat waves has roughly doubled in the US since the 0:21:26.324 --> 0:21:29.524 nineteen sixties, for example, according to the National Weather Service. 0:21:30.524 --> 0:21:33.884 So in some ways, heat waves are the best and 0:21:33.924 --> 0:21:37.324 most reliable signal of global warming. And I think if 0:21:37.364 --> 0:21:39.644 you are talking about climate change, I mean, first of all, 0:21:39.804 --> 0:21:42.204 I'm actually the minority that says that, Like, I think 0:21:42.244 --> 0:21:46.084 climate change is kind of a weird euphemism. I think 0:21:46.124 --> 0:21:50.484 global warming is more descriptive in some ways. And if 0:21:50.524 --> 0:21:52.724 you're gonna have global warming, you're gonna have not just 0:21:52.764 --> 0:21:55.924 warmer on average, but you're gonna have more warm extremes, 0:21:56.004 --> 0:21:59.404 and so like heat waves happening to this degree in 0:22:00.004 --> 0:22:03.284 June are a clear consequence of that, And so I 0:22:03.324 --> 0:22:07.004 think there's like an appropriate excuse to talk about this issue. 0:22:07.844 --> 0:22:10.604 Yeah, absolutely, and I think that it raises a lot 0:22:10.684 --> 0:22:14.924 of questions about, you know, how we think about global warming. 0:22:15.084 --> 0:22:17.044 I'm actually going to use that term as well, because 0:22:17.044 --> 0:22:21.444 I completely agree with you. I studied briefly when I 0:22:21.524 --> 0:22:26.324 was getting my PhD how to communicate risk around climate change, 0:22:26.404 --> 0:22:29.364 and global warming really is much more descriptive, and unfortunately 0:22:29.364 --> 0:22:32.604 that term became very politicized and is not popular anymore. 0:22:32.804 --> 0:22:35.764 But it is exactly what we're talking about. So I 0:22:35.764 --> 0:22:38.564 think it's good communication, which is one of the things 0:22:38.564 --> 0:22:41.164 I think that is an important question here, right, how 0:22:41.164 --> 0:22:43.804 do we communicate the risks and tell people like, look, 0:22:43.884 --> 0:22:46.564 this is important, we need to make changes. And I 0:22:46.604 --> 0:22:48.844 don't care you know what your politics are. This is 0:22:48.884 --> 0:22:50.404 something that affects all of humanity. 0:22:51.044 --> 0:22:54.164 It's one of those funny issues. And actually, like relative 0:22:54.164 --> 0:22:57.644 to other things, views on global warming have gotten a 0:22:57.684 --> 0:23:00.484 little bit less polarized of all things in the US. 0:23:00.524 --> 0:23:02.124 I mean, we're like kind of out of the al 0:23:02.164 --> 0:23:07.244 Gore polar bears era and things like that. You know, Look, 0:23:07.284 --> 0:23:12.604