1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:25,924 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:25,924 --> 00:00:28,524 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kuanakova. 3 00:00:28,484 --> 00:00:29,404 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. 4 00:00:30,004 --> 00:00:32,164 Speaker 1: Today on the show, we'll be starting off by talking 5 00:00:32,204 --> 00:00:36,044 Speaker 1: about Emmanuel Macrond, the President of France, calling snap elections 6 00:00:36,084 --> 00:00:39,444 Speaker 1: and what that means for how leaders think about risk assessments, 7 00:00:39,564 --> 00:00:43,084 Speaker 1: especially when they are huge gambles as in this case. 8 00:00:43,324 --> 00:00:46,044 Speaker 2: And we'll talk about the heat wave that's been predicted 9 00:00:46,044 --> 00:00:48,484 Speaker 2: to hit the eastern United States this week, kind of 10 00:00:48,484 --> 00:00:50,724 Speaker 2: as an excuse to talk about climate change, an issue 11 00:00:50,724 --> 00:00:52,204 Speaker 2: I hope we can address on the show once in 12 00:00:52,244 --> 00:00:56,644 Speaker 2: a while, and communication versus reality on long term risks. 13 00:00:57,164 --> 00:00:58,764 Speaker 1: And finally, we're going to be talking about one of 14 00:00:58,804 --> 00:01:02,484 Speaker 1: the single most important effects of climate change, which is 15 00:01:02,564 --> 00:01:07,644 Speaker 1: the potential shortage of one of my favorite condiments, siracha 16 00:01:07,804 --> 00:01:08,524 Speaker 1: hot sauce. 17 00:01:09,484 --> 00:01:12,564 Speaker 2: Even a hot sauce is a hot sauce. 18 00:01:13,244 --> 00:01:16,324 Speaker 1: Okay, Okay, we get we'll have we'll have this debate 19 00:01:16,644 --> 00:01:23,604 Speaker 1: after the break to come. Okay, So, Nate, as as 20 00:01:23,644 --> 00:01:29,364 Speaker 1: you've heard, Emmanuel Macron just did something that is completely 21 00:01:30,364 --> 00:01:34,324 Speaker 1: I mean, it's not completely unprecedented, but it's incredibly risky. 22 00:01:34,764 --> 00:01:39,684 Speaker 1: So we had EU elections right, and it turns out 23 00:01:39,884 --> 00:01:44,004 Speaker 1: that his party did not do that well. National Rally, 24 00:01:44,044 --> 00:01:47,204 Speaker 1: which is the Party of Marine Lapenn got thirty one 25 00:01:47,724 --> 00:01:51,524 Speaker 1: point four percent, and this is the far far right 26 00:01:51,604 --> 00:01:55,124 Speaker 1: party in France, and the New Popular Front, which is 27 00:01:55,124 --> 00:01:57,244 Speaker 1: the left wing alliance, got a total of about twenty 28 00:01:57,244 --> 00:02:00,924 Speaker 1: six percent, and his party got fourteen point six percent. 29 00:02:01,004 --> 00:02:04,804 Speaker 1: So he's the president right ruling party not not doing 30 00:02:04,844 --> 00:02:07,644 Speaker 1: that well. And instead of saying, you know, we need 31 00:02:07,684 --> 00:02:10,164 Speaker 1: to kind of rethink this stuff, we need to do something, 32 00:02:10,444 --> 00:02:16,044 Speaker 1: he decided to call snap elections three years ahead of schedule. 33 00:02:16,444 --> 00:02:20,284 Speaker 1: So on June thirtieth and July seventh, France is going 34 00:02:20,324 --> 00:02:23,644 Speaker 1: to go through two rounds of elections. And this is 35 00:02:23,644 --> 00:02:25,844 Speaker 1: a decision that as far as we can tell, Macron 36 00:02:25,924 --> 00:02:29,164 Speaker 1: did not consult with his government on. The Prime Minister 37 00:02:29,324 --> 00:02:33,404 Speaker 1: was absolutely shocked and it could have huge repercussions for France, 38 00:02:33,564 --> 00:02:37,324 Speaker 1: for Europe, for kind of the rise of right wing 39 00:02:37,844 --> 00:02:41,884 Speaker 1: nationalist movements in Europe. And the reason why I thought 40 00:02:41,884 --> 00:02:43,844 Speaker 1: it was really interesting for us to talk about this 41 00:02:44,324 --> 00:02:46,844 Speaker 1: is because there are some echoes of the types of 42 00:02:46,924 --> 00:02:49,724 Speaker 1: high risk maneuvers that we've been talking about that might 43 00:02:50,164 --> 00:02:53,724 Speaker 1: be an option in the United States, but of course 44 00:02:53,804 --> 00:02:55,084 Speaker 1: it's a huge, huge gamble. 45 00:02:55,244 --> 00:02:58,684 Speaker 2: I already have a couple of points of pushback here, Maria, Yeah, 46 00:02:58,764 --> 00:03:02,164 Speaker 2: please push back night. One point I pushedback is I 47 00:03:02,164 --> 00:03:11,084 Speaker 2: think labeling everything right wing is not very revealing sometimes 48 00:03:12,444 --> 00:03:15,924 Speaker 2: because it neglects differences, including why in France and other 49 00:03:16,044 --> 00:03:19,604 Speaker 2: places that the you know, right wing conservative movements have 50 00:03:19,684 --> 00:03:25,604 Speaker 2: become more popular and more effective. You know, Marine le 51 00:03:25,684 --> 00:03:30,164 Speaker 2: Penn has been trying to soften her party's image. 52 00:03:29,924 --> 00:03:33,044 Speaker 1: But let me, I'm just going to interrupt you right there. 53 00:03:33,044 --> 00:03:35,284 Speaker 1: But we know what the Front Nscionale is, right, and 54 00:03:35,284 --> 00:03:37,124 Speaker 1: we know that it was founded by her father, Jean 55 00:03:37,164 --> 00:03:42,164 Speaker 1: Marie Leapenn, who was just a rampant anti summit. Like this, 56 00:03:42,164 --> 00:03:44,444 Speaker 1: this is not a good party. This is a party 57 00:03:44,484 --> 00:03:49,284 Speaker 1: that's anti immigration, anti Semitic, anti all minorities, racist like this, 58 00:03:49,284 --> 00:03:50,604 Speaker 1: this is like as bad as it gets. 59 00:03:50,764 --> 00:03:53,484 Speaker 2: But you're thinking like an elite. I am a man 60 00:03:54,204 --> 00:03:56,844 Speaker 2: of the masses. I think it's important to understand the 61 00:03:56,884 --> 00:04:01,124 Speaker 2: and democracy. We want to understand why more right wing, 62 00:04:01,244 --> 00:04:05,804 Speaker 2: veiled ideas might sometimes become popular in some cases because 63 00:04:05,804 --> 00:04:10,364 Speaker 2: they're paired with economic liberalism or maybe should say economic 64 00:04:10,524 --> 00:04:13,284 Speaker 2: or left wing policies where you have a welfare state, 65 00:04:13,324 --> 00:04:16,724 Speaker 2: you're not too concerned about budget deficits. You might even 66 00:04:16,764 --> 00:04:20,084 Speaker 2: tax the rich to some degree. Look, if I go 67 00:04:20,164 --> 00:04:24,164 Speaker 2: to my hedge fund poker game or whatever, people there describe. 68 00:04:23,804 --> 00:04:25,804 Speaker 1: Themselves of the. 69 00:04:27,484 --> 00:04:32,524 Speaker 2: People describe themselves as socially liberal but fiscally conservative or 70 00:04:32,524 --> 00:04:36,284 Speaker 2: moderate right. Those are not typical people. What these parties 71 00:04:36,324 --> 00:04:40,924 Speaker 2: have figured out is that if you're going to have 72 00:04:41,844 --> 00:04:46,044 Speaker 2: right wing populism, you don't necessarily need right wing conservative 73 00:04:46,044 --> 00:04:49,524 Speaker 2: economics to go along with that. Well, they will. They 74 00:04:49,524 --> 00:04:55,484 Speaker 2: will claim to want to protect the welfare state. They 75 00:04:55,564 --> 00:04:58,764 Speaker 2: are not very concerned about things like budget deficits, which 76 00:04:58,804 --> 00:05:05,564 Speaker 2: are seen as the province of centrists. Even Trump, to 77 00:05:05,724 --> 00:05:10,484 Speaker 2: some degree, he's not Paul Ryan in terms of talking 78 00:05:10,484 --> 00:05:15,604 Speaker 2: about like performing entitlement programs. Is willing to balloon the 79 00:05:15,644 --> 00:05:18,724 Speaker 2: deficit to cut taxes without necessarily cutting spending. They did 80 00:05:18,844 --> 00:05:21,844 Speaker 2: try to kill Obamacare in Trump's first term in office. 81 00:05:21,844 --> 00:05:25,444 Speaker 2: They've talked less about that this time. Maybe Democrats should 82 00:05:25,484 --> 00:05:30,884 Speaker 2: talk more about it. But, like you know, cultural grievances 83 00:05:31,244 --> 00:05:35,924 Speaker 2: that are often based in senophobia or racism, paired with 84 00:05:36,524 --> 00:05:39,764 Speaker 2: the welfare state, which is a very popular program sometimes 85 00:05:39,804 --> 00:05:43,164 Speaker 2: kind of left leaning economics is part of the reason 86 00:05:43,244 --> 00:05:45,764 Speaker 2: these parties around the world have been more have been 87 00:05:45,764 --> 00:05:47,564 Speaker 2: more effective now. 88 00:05:47,524 --> 00:05:51,004 Speaker 1: And I think that that actually is a very important point. So, yes, 89 00:05:51,924 --> 00:05:54,444 Speaker 1: you know everything that I that I said, I think 90 00:05:54,524 --> 00:05:56,684 Speaker 1: stance about this party and why Marine the pen is 91 00:05:56,684 --> 00:06:00,364 Speaker 1: actually incredibly dangerous. However, I think it's important to note 92 00:06:00,444 --> 00:06:04,804 Speaker 1: that in these elections that just happened, the party one 93 00:06:05,044 --> 00:06:08,124 Speaker 1: ninety three percent of communes, which are the local districts, 94 00:06:08,204 --> 00:06:10,564 Speaker 1: came in first, right out, out of all of the 95 00:06:10,604 --> 00:06:13,844 Speaker 1: parties in ninety three percent of the communes in France, 96 00:06:14,124 --> 00:06:17,524 Speaker 1: which is huge because it means that they are finally 97 00:06:17,564 --> 00:06:21,124 Speaker 1: making inroads into places where historically they never have before. 98 00:06:21,524 --> 00:06:24,404 Speaker 1: And so I think that you're making a very valid 99 00:06:24,444 --> 00:06:27,484 Speaker 1: point that even though we might see, okay, this is 100 00:06:27,484 --> 00:06:29,644 Speaker 1: what the real agenda here is. And it's really scary 101 00:06:30,404 --> 00:06:34,324 Speaker 1: for voters who are looking to okay, you know, how 102 00:06:34,364 --> 00:06:37,404 Speaker 1: do we make our daily life better. We don't like Macron, 103 00:06:37,444 --> 00:06:39,884 Speaker 1: we don't like that he raised the retirement age. He's 104 00:06:39,924 --> 00:06:42,724 Speaker 1: making us work right, Macron is not popular. We're going 105 00:06:42,804 --> 00:06:46,044 Speaker 1: to vote for this for this other party, So kind 106 00:06:46,044 --> 00:06:47,724 Speaker 1: of I think one of the bigger there are two 107 00:06:47,724 --> 00:06:49,284 Speaker 1: big things here. One is the one that you just 108 00:06:49,324 --> 00:06:51,884 Speaker 1: pointed out that they are making inroads and they have 109 00:06:52,004 --> 00:06:54,004 Speaker 1: figured out a way to kind of connect to the masses, 110 00:06:54,044 --> 00:06:55,484 Speaker 1: and I think that that's something we're seeing in the 111 00:06:55,604 --> 00:06:59,964 Speaker 1: United States too. But I think the other thing is, 112 00:07:00,644 --> 00:07:04,604 Speaker 1: you know, how risky then is it to try to 113 00:07:05,364 --> 00:07:08,164 Speaker 1: call a snap election right now and say, well, fine, 114 00:07:08,204 --> 00:07:11,684 Speaker 1: you really want these guys, Let's see what happens. Because 115 00:07:11,724 --> 00:07:14,364 Speaker 1: I think that this is actually potentially there are two 116 00:07:14,404 --> 00:07:17,324 Speaker 1: things that he could be thinking, at least in my mind. 117 00:07:17,724 --> 00:07:20,564 Speaker 1: Number One, we're going to win, right like Number one, 118 00:07:20,604 --> 00:07:23,164 Speaker 1: when push comes to shove, I'll be able to assert 119 00:07:23,244 --> 00:07:27,244 Speaker 1: that people actually want more moderate politics, that they don't 120 00:07:27,284 --> 00:07:30,164 Speaker 1: really want this far right. Number Two, we're going to lose. 121 00:07:30,444 --> 00:07:35,324 Speaker 1: And that's okay because the presidential elections aren't for several years, 122 00:07:35,644 --> 00:07:37,964 Speaker 1: and people are actually going to get a taste of 123 00:07:38,004 --> 00:07:41,524 Speaker 1: what it means to have this far right force kind 124 00:07:41,524 --> 00:07:43,764 Speaker 1: of controlling a lot of the political agenda. They're not 125 00:07:43,804 --> 00:07:46,164 Speaker 1: going to like it. And then come election time, Marine 126 00:07:46,244 --> 00:07:49,724 Speaker 1: Leapen will not win the presidency and our party will 127 00:07:49,764 --> 00:07:52,724 Speaker 1: be in a much stronger position. Both of these things 128 00:07:52,724 --> 00:07:55,204 Speaker 1: are incredibly risky ways of thinking to my mind. 129 00:07:56,484 --> 00:07:58,724 Speaker 2: Yeah, there are a couple things here. I mean, first 130 00:07:58,764 --> 00:08:00,724 Speaker 2: of all, thank you for the clarification on how this 131 00:08:00,764 --> 00:08:04,044 Speaker 2: is not a presidential election, which is not scheduled until 132 00:08:04,084 --> 00:08:08,964 Speaker 2: twenty twenty seven. For people's context, in the previous election, 133 00:08:08,964 --> 00:08:11,764 Speaker 2: which is twenty two, they're five years apart. In France, 134 00:08:13,084 --> 00:08:16,204 Speaker 2: Macron defeated the Pen by quite a bit, fifty nine 135 00:08:16,244 --> 00:08:20,284 Speaker 2: percent to forty one percent in the second round runoff. Right, 136 00:08:20,364 --> 00:08:22,284 Speaker 2: there are a whole bunch of different parties in France. 137 00:08:22,284 --> 00:08:25,604 Speaker 2: There actually are like kind of a viable left, center 138 00:08:25,684 --> 00:08:29,604 Speaker 2: and right plus weird i don't know, Gallic, Celtic whatever 139 00:08:29,644 --> 00:08:34,364 Speaker 2: parties here and there. But in that final two, in 140 00:08:34,404 --> 00:08:36,604 Speaker 2: that head to head match against matchup against the Pen, 141 00:08:37,284 --> 00:08:42,244 Speaker 2: despite being unpopular himself, he won by a pretty healthy margin. 142 00:08:42,444 --> 00:08:45,764 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, frances is still one of the 143 00:08:45,764 --> 00:08:48,564 Speaker 2: most liberal and kind of many senses of that term 144 00:08:48,964 --> 00:08:53,044 Speaker 2: countries in Europe. The prime minister is uh, this young 145 00:08:53,084 --> 00:08:55,404 Speaker 2: gay guy for example, Right, I mean, it's a country 146 00:08:55,444 --> 00:08:59,284 Speaker 2: that like has always kind of had like a proud 147 00:08:59,604 --> 00:09:03,524 Speaker 2: tradition of of political diversity, but including being you know, 148 00:09:03,604 --> 00:09:07,204 Speaker 2: proudly left wing in certain ways. So part of way 149 00:09:07,244 --> 00:09:11,444 Speaker 2: when I talk about this summary with you is when 150 00:09:11,444 --> 00:09:16,564 Speaker 2: people say the term risky. There are a couple of 151 00:09:16,564 --> 00:09:18,884 Speaker 2: ways in which that can be abused, I think right 152 00:09:19,284 --> 00:09:22,484 Speaker 2: one is that sometimes risky is just a euphemism for stupid, 153 00:09:23,244 --> 00:09:26,124 Speaker 2: Like it may have been really fucking stupid for McCrone 154 00:09:26,204 --> 00:09:30,284 Speaker 2: to call this election at this time. Right, it's a 155 00:09:30,404 --> 00:09:35,404 Speaker 2: bad time not just for incumbent parties in France but everywhere. 156 00:09:35,444 --> 00:09:39,444 Speaker 2: In the UK election set for July fourth, Conservatives are 157 00:09:39,484 --> 00:09:42,284 Speaker 2: set to get destroyed to the point where the Tories 158 00:09:42,324 --> 00:09:44,964 Speaker 2: may not even be the second largest party anymore. Now. 159 00:09:45,004 --> 00:09:48,444 Speaker 2: In the US election, Joe Biden is currently losing we've 160 00:09:48,484 --> 00:09:50,124 Speaker 2: talked about on the show by a little bit in 161 00:09:50,124 --> 00:09:55,084 Speaker 2: the polls to Donald Trump. In India, Mody just saw 162 00:09:55,124 --> 00:09:57,084 Speaker 2: a big demotion in the number of seats that his 163 00:09:57,164 --> 00:10:00,924 Speaker 2: alliance had, so the timing like couldn't be much worse. 164 00:10:02,004 --> 00:10:05,004 Speaker 2: And if you look at polls, then his group, which 165 00:10:05,044 --> 00:10:08,684 Speaker 2: is called Ensemble, there's some fancy or French name. I'm 166 00:10:08,724 --> 00:10:10,164 Speaker 2: not gonna try renaissance. 167 00:10:10,884 --> 00:10:15,404 Speaker 1: Yeah, you're talking about Macron's party, Crown's Party. 168 00:10:15,564 --> 00:10:19,924 Speaker 2: His party is in third place behind the right wing 169 00:10:20,964 --> 00:10:24,884 Speaker 2: coalition in the lift wing coalition and has only declined 170 00:10:24,884 --> 00:10:27,804 Speaker 2: in the one or two polls since the announcement was made. 171 00:10:29,004 --> 00:10:32,804 Speaker 2: And listen, it's a different system where the campaign takes 172 00:10:32,844 --> 00:10:35,124 Speaker 2: place much more quickly than in the US. That means 173 00:10:35,164 --> 00:10:38,244 Speaker 2: the polls can move more quickly. But like, but this 174 00:10:38,404 --> 00:10:44,524 Speaker 2: is not a good time to be an incumbent centrist technocrat. 175 00:10:46,164 --> 00:10:49,364 Speaker 2: It's not happy times for that for that type of politician. 176 00:10:49,804 --> 00:10:54,804 Speaker 2: And and Macron is like swimming upstream into that. So 177 00:10:54,924 --> 00:10:57,124 Speaker 2: risky may just mean stupid. There's also a bias, I 178 00:10:57,164 --> 00:11:05,164 Speaker 2: think toward assuming that the status quo is safe and 179 00:11:05,204 --> 00:11:07,924 Speaker 2: any change is risky. Right, Like I've argued in the 180 00:11:08,084 --> 00:11:11,204 Speaker 2: US that maybe and it saysn't maybe people take mistake 181 00:11:11,284 --> 00:11:13,284 Speaker 2: me as saying no, Joe Biden definitely should have make 182 00:11:13,284 --> 00:11:17,564 Speaker 2: sure why But like, you know, in some ways, if 183 00:11:17,884 --> 00:11:23,964 Speaker 2: hypothetically Biden were to improve Democrats' chances of defeating Trump 184 00:11:24,444 --> 00:11:28,444 Speaker 2: by stepping aside for somebody else at the convention, is 185 00:11:28,484 --> 00:11:30,804 Speaker 2: that risky? I mean, I mean, in some ways it 186 00:11:30,804 --> 00:11:32,844 Speaker 2: makes the risk of Trump less. If I don't know 187 00:11:32,924 --> 00:11:34,364 Speaker 2: that's true, I'm just saying it's like within the realm 188 00:11:34,404 --> 00:11:37,884 Speaker 2: of possibility, right, you know here, I mean, so here 189 00:11:37,924 --> 00:11:40,444 Speaker 2: he did make a surprising change that is a deviation 190 00:11:40,484 --> 00:11:43,604 Speaker 2: from the status quo, but like sometimes pursuing the status quo, 191 00:11:43,964 --> 00:11:47,084 Speaker 2: like in climate change, as we'll talk about. Right, if 192 00:11:47,084 --> 00:11:48,724 Speaker 2: we were to be just like, oh, we're not gonna 193 00:11:48,764 --> 00:11:52,484 Speaker 2: bother with any of these greenhouse gas reductions, right, I mean, 194 00:11:52,484 --> 00:11:55,644 Speaker 2: that would be the status quo. It's riskier than probably 195 00:11:55,844 --> 00:11:58,564 Speaker 2: switching to alternative energy, no. 196 00:11:58,684 --> 00:12:00,684 Speaker 1: For sure, for sure, And I think that it's really 197 00:12:00,764 --> 00:12:04,924 Speaker 1: important to qualify what we mean by risky here. And 198 00:12:05,084 --> 00:12:07,884 Speaker 1: I think that some people, so Sarkazi actually came out 199 00:12:08,124 --> 00:12:12,124 Speaker 1: very vehemently against this and said that he probably thinks 200 00:12:12,124 --> 00:12:14,244 Speaker 1: that it's risky in the first sense of the word, 201 00:12:14,244 --> 00:12:17,204 Speaker 1: as in stupid, that this was a really really dumb call, 202 00:12:17,924 --> 00:12:20,604 Speaker 1: and he was very vocal about that. And I think 203 00:12:20,644 --> 00:12:24,484 Speaker 1: he called it playing Russian Roulette with the French government, 204 00:12:24,524 --> 00:12:27,404 Speaker 1: which is an interesting way of looking at it. But 205 00:12:28,084 --> 00:12:31,324 Speaker 1: if we look if we just look at precedent, right 206 00:12:31,484 --> 00:12:34,684 Speaker 1: when these types of gambles have happened over the last 207 00:12:34,724 --> 00:12:38,804 Speaker 1: few years, like Brexit didn't go so well, David Cameron 208 00:12:38,844 --> 00:12:41,324 Speaker 1: didn't do so well, like when you when you when 209 00:12:41,324 --> 00:12:44,484 Speaker 1: you do these sorts of like okay, well, find let's 210 00:12:44,524 --> 00:12:47,484 Speaker 1: throw it to the people. I think your second point 211 00:12:47,524 --> 00:12:50,244 Speaker 1: that this is just not a great time for throwing 212 00:12:50,284 --> 00:12:53,324 Speaker 1: it to the people in this particular way, at this 213 00:12:53,364 --> 00:12:56,764 Speaker 1: particular moment. If you're someone like Macro, to me, that resonates, 214 00:12:57,164 --> 00:13:00,204 Speaker 1: and so I wish you know, I wonder we obviously 215 00:13:00,204 --> 00:13:02,404 Speaker 1: don't know what's going on behind the scenes. You would 216 00:13:02,404 --> 00:13:05,764 Speaker 1: think that with such a consequential decision that you would 217 00:13:05,764 --> 00:13:08,684 Speaker 1: consult people. Right, with decision making, it's usually good to 218 00:13:08,724 --> 00:13:12,724 Speaker 1: consult other people who might have a point of view. 219 00:13:12,724 --> 00:13:14,524 Speaker 1: But it was very clear that like the Prime Minister 220 00:13:14,644 --> 00:13:17,164 Speaker 1: was not consulted, that very key people were not consulted. 221 00:13:17,564 --> 00:13:20,164 Speaker 1: And so to me, that's a very strange way of 222 00:13:20,244 --> 00:13:24,604 Speaker 1: making a risk assessment that has potentially very long reaching 223 00:13:24,644 --> 00:13:26,204 Speaker 1: consequences for your country. 224 00:13:26,484 --> 00:13:29,804 Speaker 2: Well, what if mccron, like most politicians, is an ego 225 00:13:29,804 --> 00:13:32,604 Speaker 2: fucking maniac and is doing the thing you were talking 226 00:13:32,644 --> 00:13:35,284 Speaker 2: about earlier, Maria, which is to set himself up for 227 00:13:35,284 --> 00:13:38,804 Speaker 2: twenty twenty seven right that if you empower the right 228 00:13:38,844 --> 00:13:41,484 Speaker 2: wing more right and make la Penn who he beat 229 00:13:41,524 --> 00:13:45,244 Speaker 2: by whatever it was, seventeen points last time, he may 230 00:13:45,324 --> 00:13:48,004 Speaker 2: figure that you'll see the right wing getting power and 231 00:13:48,804 --> 00:13:51,284 Speaker 2: you know, in most of the world, certainly the United States, 232 00:13:51,324 --> 00:13:54,604 Speaker 2: which I know the best. Obviously, there is a phenomenon 233 00:13:54,644 --> 00:13:58,124 Speaker 2: known as thermostatic public opinion, which means that you tend 234 00:13:58,124 --> 00:14:00,604 Speaker 2: to turn the temperature in the opposite direction of where 235 00:14:00,604 --> 00:14:02,924 Speaker 2: the environment is. Right, if it's too hot in the room, 236 00:14:03,044 --> 00:14:05,284 Speaker 2: you turn the thermostat down. If it's too cold, you 237 00:14:05,284 --> 00:14:09,964 Speaker 2: turn the thermostat up. So a dose of right wingism 238 00:14:10,324 --> 00:14:13,124 Speaker 2: coupled with dysfunction, right, I mean, I don't think anyone's 239 00:14:13,124 --> 00:14:15,924 Speaker 2: saying anyone's gonna have a particularly compelling majority in France 240 00:14:16,004 --> 00:14:21,284 Speaker 2: is weird. Technically Macron appoints the prime minister, but subject 241 00:14:21,324 --> 00:14:23,604 Speaker 2: to like a recall vote basically from the legislature. So 242 00:14:23,644 --> 00:14:26,444 Speaker 2: you could have like it an you know, ugly two 243 00:14:26,524 --> 00:14:31,924 Speaker 2: headed step child McCrone governing with some conservative and so 244 00:14:32,164 --> 00:14:34,684 Speaker 2: dysfunctional mess and maybe he figures, Okay, that's going to 245 00:14:34,724 --> 00:14:37,484 Speaker 2: elevate La Penn and then and then I win the 246 00:14:37,564 --> 00:14:40,324 Speaker 2: runoff against her the second round against her again in 247 00:14:40,364 --> 00:14:42,364 Speaker 2: twenty twenty seven. So maybe that's maybe that's why you 248 00:14:42,404 --> 00:14:45,764 Speaker 2: don't consult other people or like, look at Joe Biden. 249 00:14:46,284 --> 00:14:48,884 Speaker 2: You know, if you could be persuaded that it's in 250 00:14:48,964 --> 00:14:52,364 Speaker 2: Joe Biden or in Democratic Party's best interest to have 251 00:14:52,444 --> 00:14:54,644 Speaker 2: another Candy or maybe better. I mean, I think clearly 252 00:14:54,644 --> 00:14:57,004 Speaker 2: a year ago, if he had an open primary, that 253 00:14:57,004 --> 00:14:58,884 Speaker 2: would have been better off. It may not be in 254 00:14:58,964 --> 00:15:05,004 Speaker 2: Biden's best interest though, right, and the average politician, even 255 00:15:05,044 --> 00:15:08,364 Speaker 2: the nice liberals, Maria, even the people you're inclined to 256 00:15:08,364 --> 00:15:12,044 Speaker 2: think are the good guys, are fucking egomaniacs. I can't 257 00:15:12,204 --> 00:15:16,004 Speaker 2: imagine that he thought that. I don't know, I don't 258 00:15:16,044 --> 00:15:16,684 Speaker 2: know them. 259 00:15:17,284 --> 00:15:22,324 Speaker 3: Yeah no, but yeah, go ahead, good, No, you say, 260 00:15:22,484 --> 00:15:25,724 Speaker 3: we just got our ass kicked in these EU elections, 261 00:15:25,964 --> 00:15:28,324 Speaker 3: Let's have another election in a few weeks Like that 262 00:15:28,444 --> 00:15:31,604 Speaker 3: seems fucking stupid, unless you're playing some type of long 263 00:15:32,004 --> 00:15:35,364 Speaker 3: selfish I guess i'd say long game for twenty twenty seven. 264 00:15:35,844 --> 00:15:37,724 Speaker 1: Yeah no, And that was the very cynical part of 265 00:15:37,764 --> 00:15:41,004 Speaker 1: my mind that kind of crafted that as the potential 266 00:15:41,044 --> 00:15:43,524 Speaker 1: motivation behind what he's doing. But I think that it 267 00:15:43,604 --> 00:15:47,684 Speaker 1: might actually be the more accurate reason. And so and 268 00:15:47,724 --> 00:15:50,324 Speaker 1: so I do think that that you're right, I mean, 269 00:15:50,644 --> 00:15:53,284 Speaker 1: to get to the pinnacle of politics like you do, 270 00:15:53,404 --> 00:15:56,244 Speaker 1: have to be How did you call them fucking egomaniacs? Yeah, 271 00:15:56,324 --> 00:15:58,844 Speaker 1: I think that that's a good that that's a good 272 00:15:58,884 --> 00:16:02,524 Speaker 1: way of thinking about it. And so it might at 273 00:16:02,564 --> 00:16:04,564 Speaker 1: the end of the day be an ego play, but 274 00:16:04,964 --> 00:16:07,244 Speaker 1: you know you are, you are playing with the fate 275 00:16:07,284 --> 00:16:09,204 Speaker 1: of Europe. So I think that as we kind of 276 00:16:09,204 --> 00:16:11,604 Speaker 1: as we think about this, as we look at the 277 00:16:11,604 --> 00:16:14,484 Speaker 1: next few weeks, it will be really interesting to see 278 00:16:14,524 --> 00:16:17,964 Speaker 1: how this plays out in Europe, and Nate, let's let's 279 00:16:18,004 --> 00:16:22,364 Speaker 1: revisit this after those elections to see if it in 280 00:16:22,404 --> 00:16:27,404 Speaker 1: any way affects your thinking about Biden's resignation potentially and 281 00:16:27,444 --> 00:16:30,924 Speaker 1: how like a high risk gamble like that might look 282 00:16:30,964 --> 00:16:32,044 Speaker 1: in the United States. 283 00:16:32,244 --> 00:16:34,644 Speaker 2: We will definitely chick in Maria. These all these fucking 284 00:16:34,684 --> 00:16:37,804 Speaker 2: European elections are interfering with my plans to focus only 285 00:16:37,844 --> 00:16:41,364 Speaker 2: on poker during the main event. But but in between 286 00:16:41,364 --> 00:16:44,684 Speaker 2: my time reaching day six again, I'll check in on 287 00:16:44,684 --> 00:16:51,324 Speaker 2: how mcgrone's doing. We'll be back in a minute. 288 00:16:57,644 --> 00:17:00,964 Speaker 1: Nate prepared to die. Let's hear heart. I've you know, 289 00:17:01,084 --> 00:17:04,204 Speaker 1: I was talking with my parents the other day and 290 00:17:04,204 --> 00:17:06,844 Speaker 1: my parents are in Boston and I'm in Las Vegas 291 00:17:06,884 --> 00:17:09,964 Speaker 1: right now, and they were complaining. They're like, oh my god, 292 00:17:09,964 --> 00:17:11,804 Speaker 1: it's about to be one hundred degrees and like one 293 00:17:11,844 --> 00:17:14,924 Speaker 1: hundred percent humidity, and it's already very hard to breathe. 294 00:17:14,924 --> 00:17:17,164 Speaker 1: And I was like, oh, it's ninety degrees and zero 295 00:17:17,204 --> 00:17:22,044 Speaker 1: percent humidity in Las Vegas. We have completely reversed. And 296 00:17:22,204 --> 00:17:23,684 Speaker 1: I think this is the beginning of a week where 297 00:17:23,724 --> 00:17:26,604 Speaker 1: that is true because a heat wave is hitting most 298 00:17:26,604 --> 00:17:28,684 Speaker 1: of the country but not Nevada. 299 00:17:29,164 --> 00:17:32,164 Speaker 2: Yeah, New York is protected to get up to the 300 00:17:32,204 --> 00:17:35,564 Speaker 2: mid low to mid nineties later this week. Places like 301 00:17:35,604 --> 00:17:39,684 Speaker 2: Pittsburgh maybe up to ninety nine one hundred degrees. This 302 00:17:39,764 --> 00:17:43,204 Speaker 2: is not that that that that hot, except for the 303 00:17:43,204 --> 00:17:45,564 Speaker 2: time of year. That is, we're still in mid to 304 00:17:45,644 --> 00:17:49,244 Speaker 2: late June. It's technically still spring. By the way, Maria, Yeah, 305 00:17:49,284 --> 00:17:51,564 Speaker 2: we got four more days or two more when you're yeah, 306 00:17:51,564 --> 00:17:51,924 Speaker 2: we haven't. 307 00:17:51,964 --> 00:17:54,444 Speaker 1: We haven't gotten to the summer solstice yet. 308 00:17:54,724 --> 00:18:00,204 Speaker 2: Correct. But but these are potentially record breaking temperatures for 309 00:18:00,204 --> 00:18:02,964 Speaker 2: for the time of year that they're in. This is 310 00:18:03,004 --> 00:18:06,204 Speaker 2: not a meteorology podcast, but I did kind of want 311 00:18:06,244 --> 00:18:08,484 Speaker 2: to use a segment as an excuse to talk about 312 00:18:09,564 --> 00:18:15,764 Speaker 2: climate change and risk communication around climate change. It's early 313 00:18:15,804 --> 00:18:17,724 Speaker 2: in the Lifeless Show. It's not an issue we've talked about. 314 00:18:17,804 --> 00:18:20,684 Speaker 2: Yet I think one problem with climate change is that 315 00:18:20,844 --> 00:18:25,924 Speaker 2: like it's something happening slowly and kind of constantly over time. 316 00:18:26,924 --> 00:18:29,764 Speaker 2: By the way, if you look at data from the 317 00:18:29,804 --> 00:18:33,004 Speaker 2: Met Office Hadley Center in the UK, and I'm aware 318 00:18:33,044 --> 00:18:34,644 Speaker 2: I used to be more of a climate change nerd. 319 00:18:34,684 --> 00:18:38,804 Speaker 2: I'm aware there are debates over these different measurements, but 320 00:18:38,924 --> 00:18:40,844 Speaker 2: from this measurement, which is pretty consistent with what I 321 00:18:40,884 --> 00:18:45,604 Speaker 2: see elsewhere, twenty twenty three was the hottest year in 322 00:18:45,684 --> 00:18:49,564 Speaker 2: modern recorded history, with the mean global temperature anomaly one 323 00:18:49,564 --> 00:18:52,244 Speaker 2: point one degree celsius. By the way, Celsius fucking sucks 324 00:18:52,244 --> 00:18:55,524 Speaker 2: Fahrenheit so much better. Zero one hundred zero was cold. 325 00:18:55,604 --> 00:18:57,564 Speaker 2: Hundred is hot, the best fucking scale on Earth. And 326 00:18:57,604 --> 00:19:00,244 Speaker 2: you're trying to use celsius anyway, though this is denominated 327 00:19:00,244 --> 00:19:01,244 Speaker 2: in celsius. 328 00:19:00,844 --> 00:19:03,484 Speaker 1: Zia, the zero is actually the freezing in celsius. That's 329 00:19:03,524 --> 00:19:06,044 Speaker 1: why that kind of makes sense. But I would much 330 00:19:06,124 --> 00:19:10,324 Speaker 1: rather know when it's fucking hot, because that's what we're 331 00:19:10,324 --> 00:19:13,044 Speaker 1: talking about climate change. That's what matters when we're talking 332 00:19:13,044 --> 00:19:15,484 Speaker 1: about these kinds of things. So one degree shift in 333 00:19:15,564 --> 00:19:19,884 Speaker 1: celsius is equal to more than two degrees shift in fahrenheit. 334 00:19:20,204 --> 00:19:22,724 Speaker 1: So you have these jumps, you're like, oh my god, 335 00:19:22,764 --> 00:19:24,964 Speaker 1: you know it's one degree hotter today. Now I want 336 00:19:24,964 --> 00:19:26,804 Speaker 1: to know that it's five degrees hotter, that it's ten 337 00:19:26,844 --> 00:19:29,564 Speaker 1: degrees hotter. And so I think that when you're communicating 338 00:19:29,644 --> 00:19:32,724 Speaker 1: as a psychologist, when we're talking about climate change, when 339 00:19:32,724 --> 00:19:35,764 Speaker 1: we're talking about risk, when we're talking about heat, fahrenheit 340 00:19:35,884 --> 00:19:38,244 Speaker 1: is absolutely the way to go, because that shit is 341 00:19:38,284 --> 00:19:39,764 Speaker 1: way more impressive than celsius. 342 00:19:39,884 --> 00:19:44,604 Speaker 2: Yeah, you can take your kilometers in your centigrade temperature 343 00:19:44,644 --> 00:19:48,404 Speaker 2: scale and shove it metric system, give it to a 344 00:19:48,444 --> 00:19:52,244 Speaker 2: cat or something. We're Americans. We have fahrenheit. Anyway, though, 345 00:19:53,004 --> 00:19:59,004 Speaker 2: the table that I'm reading from claims credibly that global 346 00:19:58,964 --> 00:20:03,084 Speaker 2: tempatures were one point one degree centigrade celsius higher in 347 00:20:03,124 --> 00:20:05,164 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three than they have been over the long 348 00:20:05,244 --> 00:20:08,884 Speaker 2: term pre global warming period. So far in twenty twenty four, 349 00:20:08,964 --> 00:20:12,884 Speaker 2: they're one point two to three degrees celsiu is higher 350 00:20:12,924 --> 00:20:16,364 Speaker 2: than the long term trend you'd remembered for now these 351 00:20:16,404 --> 00:20:18,604 Speaker 2: you know, this does fluctuate up and downward. These may 352 00:20:18,764 --> 00:20:21,684 Speaker 2: prove to be particularly bad years. The long term trend 353 00:20:21,684 --> 00:20:26,724 Speaker 2: is pretty unmistakable and we're already nearing the one point 354 00:20:26,804 --> 00:20:32,724 Speaker 2: five degrees sort of best optimistic maybe now at this point, frankly, 355 00:20:33,444 --> 00:20:37,524 Speaker 2: not the very realistic case that's been the target target 356 00:20:37,764 --> 00:20:42,124 Speaker 2: warming rise of climate activists for years. So we're already 357 00:20:42,164 --> 00:20:45,124 Speaker 2: kind of we're already kind of seeing the evidence of this, 358 00:20:45,284 --> 00:20:47,284 Speaker 2: not that you need too much of a microscope to 359 00:20:47,284 --> 00:20:50,044 Speaker 2: find it. The other thing too, is that, like I 360 00:20:50,044 --> 00:20:52,844 Speaker 2: think our readers can imagine, like what a bell curve 361 00:20:52,884 --> 00:20:56,724 Speaker 2: looks like a normal distribution, you can imagine that if 362 00:20:56,724 --> 00:20:59,564 Speaker 2: you kind of shift that bell curve over to the right, 363 00:20:59,644 --> 00:21:02,164 Speaker 2: because now the average temperature and yes there's tons of 364 00:21:02,164 --> 00:21:05,844 Speaker 2: fluctuation over the course of the year, but if the 365 00:21:05,884 --> 00:21:11,204 Speaker 2: average temperature is two or three degrees fahrenheit hotter, you 366 00:21:11,244 --> 00:21:13,884 Speaker 2: can imagine that, like right tail the graph that crosses 367 00:21:14,004 --> 00:21:17,164 Speaker 2: past like ninety nine degrees or one hundred that actually 368 00:21:17,164 --> 00:21:19,604 Speaker 2: occurs a lot more often, And like the number of 369 00:21:19,644 --> 00:21:26,284 Speaker 2: heat waves has roughly doubled in the US since the 370 00:21:26,324 --> 00:21:29,524 Speaker 2: nineteen sixties, for example, according to the National Weather Service. 371 00:21:30,524 --> 00:21:33,884 Speaker 2: So in some ways, heat waves are the best and 372 00:21:33,924 --> 00:21:37,324 Speaker 2: most reliable signal of global warming. And I think if 373 00:21:37,364 --> 00:21:39,644 Speaker 2: you are talking about climate change, I mean, first of all, 374 00:21:39,804 --> 00:21:42,204 Speaker 2: I'm actually the minority that says that, Like, I think 375 00:21:42,244 --> 00:21:46,084 Speaker 2: climate change is kind of a weird euphemism. I think 376 00:21:46,124 --> 00:21:50,484 Speaker 2: global warming is more descriptive in some ways. And if 377 00:21:50,524 --> 00:21:52,724 Speaker 2: you're gonna have global warming, you're gonna have not just 378 00:21:52,764 --> 00:21:55,924 Speaker 2: warmer on average, but you're gonna have more warm extremes, 379 00:21:56,004 --> 00:21:59,404 Speaker 2: and so like heat waves happening to this degree in 380 00:22:00,004 --> 00:22:03,284 Speaker 2: June are a clear consequence of that, And so I 381 00:22:03,324 --> 00:22:07,004 Speaker 2: think there's like an appropriate excuse to talk about this issue. 382 00:22:07,844 --> 00:22:10,604 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, and I think that it raises a lot 383 00:22:10,684 --> 00:22:14,924 Speaker 1: of questions about, you know, how we think about global warming. 384 00:22:15,084 --> 00:22:17,044 Speaker 1: I'm actually going to use that term as well, because 385 00:22:17,044 --> 00:22:21,444 Speaker 1: I completely agree with you. I studied briefly when I 386 00:22:21,524 --> 00:22:26,324 Speaker 1: was getting my PhD how to communicate risk around climate change, 387 00:22:26,404 --> 00:22:29,364 Speaker 1: and global warming really is much more descriptive, and unfortunately 388 00:22:29,364 --> 00:22:32,604 Speaker 1: that term became very politicized and is not popular anymore. 389 00:22:32,804 --> 00:22:35,764 Speaker 1: But it is exactly what we're talking about. So I 390 00:22:35,764 --> 00:22:38,564 Speaker 1: think it's good communication, which is one of the things 391 00:22:38,564 --> 00:22:41,164 Speaker 1: I think that is an important question here, right, how 392 00:22:41,164 --> 00:22:43,804 Speaker 1: do we communicate the risks and tell people like, look, 393 00:22:43,884 --> 00:22:46,564 Speaker 1: this is important, we need to make changes. And I 394 00:22:46,604 --> 00:22:48,844 Speaker 1: don't care you know what your politics are. This is 395 00:22:48,884 --> 00:22:50,404 Speaker 1: something that affects all of humanity. 396 00:22:51,044 --> 00:22:54,164 Speaker 2: It's one of those funny issues. And actually, like relative 397 00:22:54,164 --> 00:22:57,644 Speaker 2: to other things, views on global warming have gotten a 398 00:22:57,684 --> 00:23:00,484 Speaker 2: little bit less polarized of all things in the US. 399 00:23:00,524 --> 00:23:02,124 Speaker 2: I mean, we're like kind of out of the al 400 00:23:02,164 --> 00:23:07,244 Speaker 2: Gore polar bears era and things like that. You know, Look, 401 00:23:07,284 --> 00:23:12,604 Speaker 2: what are the challenges in riscommunication is that in some sense, 402 00:23:12,684 --> 00:23:15,804 Speaker 2: the more seriously people take climate change slash global warming, 403 00:23:16,444 --> 00:23:21,244 Speaker 2: the less of a chance that will cause big scary problems. Right. 404 00:23:22,644 --> 00:23:25,444 Speaker 2: If you look at CO two emissions, this is also 405 00:23:25,564 --> 00:23:29,164 Speaker 2: data from our world and data they have leveled off 406 00:23:29,724 --> 00:23:32,604 Speaker 2: to some degree. Now they actually fell a little bit 407 00:23:33,164 --> 00:23:35,924 Speaker 2: during the pandemic years when economic output was depressed. They 408 00:23:35,964 --> 00:23:37,964 Speaker 2: have since rebounded, but they've kind of rebounded to like 409 00:23:38,364 --> 00:23:42,004 Speaker 2: roughly where they were a few years ago. If you 410 00:23:42,044 --> 00:23:46,324 Speaker 2: look at more detail, you see that the West, meaning 411 00:23:46,444 --> 00:23:50,764 Speaker 2: the wealthy countries in Europe and the EU, actually have 412 00:23:50,884 --> 00:23:55,724 Speaker 2: seen declines in their carbon output, whereas China's have increased 413 00:23:55,804 --> 00:23:58,764 Speaker 2: a lot. Other parts of developing world have increased quite 414 00:23:58,764 --> 00:24:01,124 Speaker 2: a bit. So this is kind of like a little 415 00:24:01,124 --> 00:24:03,124 Speaker 2: bit of a political problem too. I mean, I think 416 00:24:03,164 --> 00:24:05,004 Speaker 2: that the rest of the world is entitled to the 417 00:24:05,044 --> 00:24:09,524 Speaker 2: sort of prosperity that we have in the US. I 418 00:24:09,564 --> 00:24:12,084 Speaker 2: haven't seen kind of projections of like, you know, we're 419 00:24:12,084 --> 00:24:15,484 Speaker 2: now having decceleration and population growth. Maybe that affects things 420 00:24:15,524 --> 00:24:19,004 Speaker 2: in the long term as well, But it is a diffical 421 00:24:19,044 --> 00:24:20,884 Speaker 2: problem because you actually are kind of getting and kind 422 00:24:20,884 --> 00:24:23,124 Speaker 2: of telling people like, yeah, I mean you know that 423 00:24:23,324 --> 00:24:25,604 Speaker 2: China might have to pay for a mess that kind 424 00:24:25,684 --> 00:24:29,604 Speaker 2: of you know, the West originally caused a little bit, 425 00:24:29,644 --> 00:24:32,564 Speaker 2: but the West has actually cut its emissions in meaningful ways. 426 00:24:33,324 --> 00:24:35,884 Speaker 2: So one question is, like, just from a peer I mean, 427 00:24:36,124 --> 00:24:40,724 Speaker 2: from purely like empirical standpoint, how well do like scare 428 00:24:40,804 --> 00:24:44,884 Speaker 2: tactics work, Because there are some liberals who think that, 429 00:24:45,004 --> 00:24:47,404 Speaker 2: like the ocean is going to be boiling in like 430 00:24:47,724 --> 00:24:50,884 Speaker 2: seven years, and that's just complete misinformation. That's like believing 431 00:24:50,884 --> 00:24:53,884 Speaker 2: in like horse tranquilizers or something to cure disease. 432 00:24:54,684 --> 00:24:57,644 Speaker 1: Wait, I do think that there are there are actually 433 00:24:57,724 --> 00:25:00,884 Speaker 1: some good data that scare tactics are not great, and 434 00:25:00,924 --> 00:25:03,204 Speaker 1: that that's not the way that you want to be 435 00:25:03,244 --> 00:25:07,044 Speaker 1: communicating if you want people to change behavior on this 436 00:25:07,164 --> 00:25:09,964 Speaker 1: type of thing. Scare tactics are great. It comes to 437 00:25:10,204 --> 00:25:14,564 Speaker 1: very palpable immediate risks. But even then, like think about like, 438 00:25:14,924 --> 00:25:17,404 Speaker 1: let's just go back to like childhood, right if you 439 00:25:17,484 --> 00:25:19,764 Speaker 1: have a kid, and neither one of us has kids, 440 00:25:20,004 --> 00:25:22,844 Speaker 1: but if you have a kid and you want them 441 00:25:22,884 --> 00:25:25,284 Speaker 1: not to do something, and you're trying to kind of 442 00:25:25,324 --> 00:25:27,524 Speaker 1: scare them, right and say, oh, if you do this, 443 00:25:27,564 --> 00:25:30,044 Speaker 1: blah blah blah blah blah, you know, the Boogeyman's going 444 00:25:30,084 --> 00:25:32,204 Speaker 1: to come and you're gonna be carried off and all 445 00:25:32,204 --> 00:25:34,444 Speaker 1: this bad stuff's going to happen. The scarier it is, like, 446 00:25:34,484 --> 00:25:36,764 Speaker 1: maybe it'll work up until age like two or three, 447 00:25:36,804 --> 00:25:40,204 Speaker 1: and then when they some critical thinking abilities kick in, 448 00:25:40,244 --> 00:25:42,044 Speaker 1: they'll be like, Okay, this does not make sense. This 449 00:25:42,084 --> 00:25:44,524 Speaker 1: ain't actually going to happen. I'm going to do this 450 00:25:44,604 --> 00:25:47,524 Speaker 1: and see what the actual consequences are for myself. And 451 00:25:47,564 --> 00:25:51,564 Speaker 1: I think that that's actually a pretty good, pretty good 452 00:25:51,764 --> 00:25:56,604 Speaker 1: illustration of the kind of the degree of scare tactics 453 00:25:56,604 --> 00:25:59,364 Speaker 1: at work. Right. It does need to be grounded in reality. 454 00:25:59,404 --> 00:26:02,444 Speaker 1: You can't start like telling people that the Boogeyman's going 455 00:26:02,524 --> 00:26:05,404 Speaker 1: to come and boil all of the oceans and eat 456 00:26:05,444 --> 00:26:07,084 Speaker 1: all of your trees and that the sky's going to 457 00:26:07,164 --> 00:26:09,604 Speaker 1: turn black, you know that that's not going to work. 458 00:26:09,844 --> 00:26:14,804 Speaker 1: But the unfortunate the unfortunate thing is, though there are 459 00:26:14,844 --> 00:26:18,164 Speaker 1: no good data on what actually works well, it turns 460 00:26:18,164 --> 00:26:20,964 Speaker 1: out that a lot of different tactics don't work particularly well, 461 00:26:21,124 --> 00:26:24,444 Speaker 1: and that this is an incredibly, incredibly difficult issue to communicate. 462 00:26:24,724 --> 00:26:27,004 Speaker 1: And one of the fundamental reasons is something that you've 463 00:26:27,044 --> 00:26:31,124 Speaker 1: already alluded to, which is that it's not immediate. It's 464 00:26:31,164 --> 00:26:34,964 Speaker 1: not something that I experience right now. It's something where 465 00:26:35,404 --> 00:26:37,404 Speaker 1: I can experience a lot of things that kind of 466 00:26:37,444 --> 00:26:41,244 Speaker 1: seem to disconfirm it. And people are really really bad 467 00:26:41,284 --> 00:26:44,124 Speaker 1: at probabilistic thinking, as we've talked about, and we're really 468 00:26:44,164 --> 00:26:47,004 Speaker 1: bad at long term planning, right We're really bad at 469 00:26:47,084 --> 00:26:50,524 Speaker 1: kind of thinking like ten years ahead, one year ahead. 470 00:26:50,764 --> 00:26:53,884 Speaker 1: Now let's talk about fifty years ahead, one hundred years ahead. 471 00:26:54,164 --> 00:26:57,484 Speaker 1: And you know, our thinking really does break down, Our 472 00:26:57,524 --> 00:27:00,444 Speaker 1: planning breaks down, our risky decision making breaks down. So 473 00:27:00,884 --> 00:27:04,044 Speaker 1: it's a really difficult subject. And I wish that, you know, 474 00:27:04,604 --> 00:27:06,124 Speaker 1: wouldn't it be amazing if at the end of the 475 00:27:06,164 --> 00:27:08,724 Speaker 1: segment we had a golden bullet. I don't think that's 476 00:27:08,724 --> 00:27:11,804 Speaker 1: going to happen, but it's a really, it's a thorny question. 477 00:27:13,204 --> 00:27:15,284 Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, and you get in the fact that, like, 478 00:27:15,684 --> 00:27:17,564 Speaker 2: if I send some pollution up into the atmosphere, it 479 00:27:17,564 --> 00:27:19,764 Speaker 2: spreads around the globe. Right, So I don't realize that 480 00:27:19,804 --> 00:27:24,604 Speaker 2: cost necessarily directly myself. Right. There are even some countries, 481 00:27:24,684 --> 00:27:28,484 Speaker 2: you know, the colder countries, I mean, Canada, Russia might 482 00:27:28,524 --> 00:27:32,764 Speaker 2: benefit from global warming. That's just a fact right now. Look, 483 00:27:35,084 --> 00:27:38,124 Speaker 2: I think more and more people feel like a responsibility 484 00:27:38,164 --> 00:27:40,604 Speaker 2: to do something about kind of the shared humanity that 485 00:27:40,644 --> 00:27:44,204 Speaker 2: we all have. But yeah, it's a notoriously tricky issue. 486 00:27:44,204 --> 00:27:47,324 Speaker 2: And I think, as you're getting at before, like people 487 00:27:47,404 --> 00:27:50,524 Speaker 2: are playing a long game here. I think too often 488 00:27:52,044 --> 00:27:57,044 Speaker 2: elites again criticizing elites, of which I'm a fucking elite, right, 489 00:27:57,084 --> 00:27:58,564 Speaker 2: I'm criticizing my tribe. 490 00:27:58,724 --> 00:28:00,484 Speaker 1: Now, you're a man of the people who plays in 491 00:28:00,564 --> 00:28:02,044 Speaker 1: high stakes hedge fund posts. 492 00:28:03,324 --> 00:28:09,204 Speaker 2: I think my tribe often treats the masses contemptuously, not 493 00:28:09,244 --> 00:28:13,684 Speaker 2: just treat some has contempt for the masses, and therefore 494 00:28:13,724 --> 00:28:15,724 Speaker 2: they think these people are fools, right, And we can 495 00:28:15,804 --> 00:28:17,604 Speaker 2: kind of tell like a little white line of them, 496 00:28:17,644 --> 00:28:21,644 Speaker 2: and they won't figure it out, and it doesn't work, right. 497 00:28:22,924 --> 00:28:26,924 Speaker 2: You know, there were efforts, for example, to repress maybe 498 00:28:27,044 --> 00:28:29,084 Speaker 2: censor is slightly too strong a term, but like to 499 00:28:29,124 --> 00:28:32,684 Speaker 2: repress discussion of like the theory that COVID originated in 500 00:28:32,804 --> 00:28:35,524 Speaker 2: a lab, right, which is now considered by you know, 501 00:28:35,884 --> 00:28:38,204 Speaker 2: roughly a fifty to fifty shot by like several major 502 00:28:38,364 --> 00:28:42,004 Speaker 2: US agencies that have investigated, you know, that didn't actually 503 00:28:42,004 --> 00:28:44,284 Speaker 2: work people the whole time if you ask polls, and no, 504 00:28:44,404 --> 00:28:47,164 Speaker 2: science is not done by poll but people said, yeah, 505 00:28:47,204 --> 00:28:49,844 Speaker 2: actually I would lean lab like if you asked me myself, right, 506 00:28:51,164 --> 00:28:53,924 Speaker 2: you know, I think you know, there are efforts, for example, 507 00:28:54,044 --> 00:28:57,164 Speaker 2: for Biden to tell people don't worry about the fact 508 00:28:57,204 --> 00:28:59,844 Speaker 2: that I'm eighty one years old and Trump is fucking 509 00:28:59,884 --> 00:29:01,844 Speaker 2: seventy eight years old, just turned seventy eight last week, 510 00:29:01,884 --> 00:29:05,124 Speaker 2: by the way, right, it doesn't work. Not every fucking 511 00:29:05,164 --> 00:29:07,724 Speaker 2: person cares about the tone of how the New York 512 00:29:07,764 --> 00:29:11,284 Speaker 2: Times explained something that kind of verify information based on 513 00:29:11,644 --> 00:29:14,404 Speaker 2: their instinct about whether you're honest and truthful and how 514 00:29:14,484 --> 00:29:16,924 Speaker 2: kind of the evidence kind of checks out with their 515 00:29:16,964 --> 00:29:19,764 Speaker 2: own experience in the world. That's one thing that I 516 00:29:19,764 --> 00:29:21,684 Speaker 2: guess global warming has going for it is that people 517 00:29:21,764 --> 00:29:24,604 Speaker 2: do correctly into it that you have things like these 518 00:29:24,604 --> 00:29:29,004 Speaker 2: heat waves coming more often. That's definitely happening more often, right, 519 00:29:29,044 --> 00:29:32,764 Speaker 2: that's unambiguous, whereas things like hurricanes it's more complicated the 520 00:29:32,804 --> 00:29:34,884 Speaker 2: physics of the atmosphere and things like that, and those 521 00:29:34,924 --> 00:29:38,084 Speaker 2: are rareer events. But like it, being really abnormally hot 522 00:29:39,964 --> 00:29:42,964 Speaker 2: probably is more persuasive to people to do something about 523 00:29:42,964 --> 00:29:46,004 Speaker 2: global warming than some rhetorical trick. 524 00:29:51,364 --> 00:30:05,284 Speaker 1: Will be right back, Nate, we were just talking about 525 00:30:05,284 --> 00:30:09,324 Speaker 1: something really serious, you know, climate change, global warming, heat waves. 526 00:30:10,004 --> 00:30:12,364 Speaker 1: But to me, there's something that's really close to my 527 00:30:12,484 --> 00:30:15,364 Speaker 1: heart that this issue is getting at, which is that 528 00:30:15,444 --> 00:30:20,804 Speaker 1: we might be facing another shortage of everyone's, well not everyone's, 529 00:30:20,844 --> 00:30:23,604 Speaker 1: but my favorite hot sauce that I like to add 530 00:30:23,644 --> 00:30:29,524 Speaker 1: to everything, which is Huifong's Siracha sauce, you know, with 531 00:30:29,564 --> 00:30:34,124 Speaker 1: its little green cap and it's little rooster. And there 532 00:30:34,164 --> 00:30:36,044 Speaker 1: was a shortage of it a few years ago, and 533 00:30:36,084 --> 00:30:38,844 Speaker 1: now there might be a second one, and I'm freaking 534 00:30:38,884 --> 00:30:42,284 Speaker 1: out and thinking about all sorts of irrational things like 535 00:30:42,644 --> 00:30:46,284 Speaker 1: should I stock Pilot while it's still available and create 536 00:30:46,324 --> 00:30:49,644 Speaker 1: a shortage by my own irrational behavior? But anyway, I 537 00:30:49,684 --> 00:30:52,604 Speaker 1: think that this is something that's very interesting to talk 538 00:30:52,644 --> 00:30:54,084 Speaker 1: about By the way, did you know that it was 539 00:30:54,124 --> 00:30:56,804 Speaker 1: pronounced si racha, not sri racha, which is the way 540 00:30:56,844 --> 00:30:59,124 Speaker 1: I've been saying it my entire life. I watched some 541 00:30:59,284 --> 00:31:07,044 Speaker 1: videos where Vietnamese individuals corrected pronunciation and I was blown away. 542 00:31:07,724 --> 00:31:10,244 Speaker 2: Just get rid of that extra r doing anything, Just 543 00:31:10,244 --> 00:31:12,124 Speaker 2: get rid of it. I'm just going to confuse people. 544 00:31:12,684 --> 00:31:16,484 Speaker 2: But now it's just siracha. You can ignore the first R. 545 00:31:17,204 --> 00:31:21,324 Speaker 1: Yes, exactly exactly. But in all seriousness, I think that 546 00:31:21,364 --> 00:31:25,284 Speaker 1: there's a really interesting aspect of risk assessment here from 547 00:31:25,284 --> 00:31:29,244 Speaker 1: the corporate standpoint, not just the individual standpoint. So there 548 00:31:29,244 --> 00:31:31,244 Speaker 1: are two reasons why we might be seeing a shortage. 549 00:31:31,324 --> 00:31:33,964 Speaker 1: But one of them is because so the company that 550 00:31:34,044 --> 00:31:40,404 Speaker 1: produces sir Rochessauceuifong, they broke off their relationship with their supplier, 551 00:31:40,764 --> 00:31:45,004 Speaker 1: their long term supplier and their only supply supplier, Underwood Ranches. 552 00:31:45,044 --> 00:31:48,364 Speaker 1: So that relationship broke off in twenty sixteen. So then 553 00:31:48,484 --> 00:31:52,684 Speaker 1: they looked for producers in Mexico. And originally kind of 554 00:31:52,684 --> 00:31:55,044 Speaker 1: the fallout of this was there was a shortage. Now 555 00:31:55,084 --> 00:31:57,644 Speaker 1: there's going to be another shortage because in Mexico we 556 00:31:57,724 --> 00:32:00,004 Speaker 1: have a heat wave and a drought, and so this 557 00:32:00,044 --> 00:32:02,324 Speaker 1: is happening right now, and I think that you know, 558 00:32:02,364 --> 00:32:04,724 Speaker 1: there are two different issues. Obviously the climate change that 559 00:32:04,764 --> 00:32:08,324 Speaker 1: we've just talked about, but also like, I'm sorry when 560 00:32:08,324 --> 00:32:11,404 Speaker 1: I was reading this story and this whole saga of 561 00:32:11,644 --> 00:32:14,724 Speaker 1: Underwood and Quifong in that partnership and how it came 562 00:32:14,764 --> 00:32:16,884 Speaker 1: to be and how it broke up, like this was 563 00:32:16,964 --> 00:32:19,604 Speaker 1: just a list of like what you do not do 564 00:32:19,964 --> 00:32:22,364 Speaker 1: when it comes to risk assessment in business, what you 565 00:32:22,444 --> 00:32:25,204 Speaker 1: do not do when it comes to diversification of your 566 00:32:25,204 --> 00:32:28,004 Speaker 1: supply chain, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, And so 567 00:32:28,044 --> 00:32:30,764 Speaker 1: it seemed like a lot of bad business decisions that 568 00:32:30,964 --> 00:32:33,324 Speaker 1: might end with me not being able to get the 569 00:32:33,324 --> 00:32:35,364 Speaker 1: sauce I want when I want it. 570 00:32:37,084 --> 00:32:40,684 Speaker 2: Look, I think there are certain types of products that 571 00:32:42,484 --> 00:32:45,364 Speaker 2: are kind of correctly risk averse because they lean very 572 00:32:45,364 --> 00:32:49,884 Speaker 2: heavily on brand loyalty. Right, So first of all, let's 573 00:32:49,924 --> 00:32:51,604 Speaker 2: have a couple. You want to have an honest conversation 574 00:32:51,684 --> 00:32:56,204 Speaker 2: about siracha sauce, Siracha hot sauce. So, first of all, 575 00:32:56,204 --> 00:32:58,644 Speaker 2: it tricks you by having that extra R that you're 576 00:32:58,644 --> 00:33:01,684 Speaker 2: not supposed to pronounce. The brand is also it is 577 00:33:01,724 --> 00:33:04,204 Speaker 2: a great sauce. It's important brand who because some people 578 00:33:04,204 --> 00:33:06,964 Speaker 2: think that, like some people think that siracha is just 579 00:33:07,004 --> 00:33:11,244 Speaker 2: this what's puce you're call It's like who Quong Quifong? Right? 580 00:33:11,644 --> 00:33:15,244 Speaker 2: They actually think that siracha is some like registered trademark 581 00:33:15,284 --> 00:33:17,924 Speaker 2: of Quifong, and it's not. It's just the best known 582 00:33:18,604 --> 00:33:19,204 Speaker 2: brand of it. 583 00:33:19,924 --> 00:33:20,124 Speaker 1: Yeah. 584 00:33:20,764 --> 00:33:24,884 Speaker 2: An article friend from Mackenzie Filson, who is a writer 585 00:33:25,044 --> 00:33:31,404 Speaker 2: for The Kitchen, a subvertical of Yahoo Life. Mackenzie tested 586 00:33:32,204 --> 00:33:35,844 Speaker 2: did a blind taste test of one, two, three, four, five, 587 00:33:35,924 --> 00:33:39,084 Speaker 2: six seven siracha sauces. Do you want to guess where 588 00:33:39,804 --> 00:33:42,444 Speaker 2: the famous rooster bottle of Quifong ended up on that 589 00:33:42,444 --> 00:33:43,284 Speaker 2: blind taste test? 590 00:33:43,684 --> 00:33:48,644 Speaker 1: First? First, No, I'm assuming it's not first, because otherwise 591 00:33:48,644 --> 00:33:51,484 Speaker 1: you would not be asking me. So what was first night? 592 00:33:52,164 --> 00:33:56,804 Speaker 2: First is Ox brand siracha sauce, and then Ninja Squirrel 593 00:33:57,324 --> 00:33:59,804 Speaker 2: Siracha hot sauce was right second. 594 00:34:00,164 --> 00:34:01,924 Speaker 1: Okay, I have to say, that's a really nice name. 595 00:34:02,364 --> 00:34:05,004 Speaker 1: I like Ninja Squirrel. But at the end of the day, 596 00:34:05,044 --> 00:34:07,684 Speaker 1: people are incredibly loyal and they want this sauce. But 597 00:34:07,724 --> 00:34:10,604 Speaker 1: when they can't get that sauce, that's a big, big problem. 598 00:34:10,844 --> 00:34:13,804 Speaker 1: And so it does lead to things that seem to 599 00:34:13,844 --> 00:34:16,924 Speaker 1: be irrational, but to me on an individual level, seem 600 00:34:16,964 --> 00:34:20,324 Speaker 1: completely rational. Like I really want to go after we 601 00:34:20,444 --> 00:34:22,644 Speaker 1: finished taping, I have to go play poker, but I 602 00:34:22,644 --> 00:34:24,644 Speaker 1: would rather go to the store and actually just like 603 00:34:24,684 --> 00:34:27,884 Speaker 1: get five bottles of siracha and just have them just 604 00:34:27,964 --> 00:34:30,724 Speaker 1: in case something happens. Is that a good thing for 605 00:34:30,764 --> 00:34:32,284 Speaker 1: me to do? Or is that a bad thing for 606 00:34:32,324 --> 00:34:32,764 Speaker 1: me to do? 607 00:34:32,924 --> 00:34:35,444 Speaker 2: I mean, it might be selfish what the effective altruists 608 00:34:35,444 --> 00:34:40,244 Speaker 2: say about your hoarding siracha sauce. And it does keep 609 00:34:40,284 --> 00:34:43,124 Speaker 2: by the way, was doing research, it does preserve in 610 00:34:43,164 --> 00:34:47,284 Speaker 2: your fridge for like literally two or fevers, which I'm 611 00:34:47,284 --> 00:34:50,324 Speaker 2: not sure that's the best advertisement for it necessarily, But no, 612 00:34:50,484 --> 00:34:52,924 Speaker 2: what you were saying, I mean, you know, the most 613 00:34:52,964 --> 00:34:54,964 Speaker 2: famous mistake all those some people think it was kind 614 00:34:55,004 --> 00:34:57,564 Speaker 2: of a long game to trick people when Coca Cola 615 00:34:57,604 --> 00:35:00,204 Speaker 2: switched its recipe was kind of the most famous mistake 616 00:35:00,244 --> 00:35:04,444 Speaker 2: in the history of like marketing. When you have an 617 00:35:04,644 --> 00:35:07,484 Speaker 2: iconic brand that is actually a push come to shove. 618 00:35:07,884 --> 00:35:10,564 Speaker 2: If you were to do a blind taste test, I 619 00:35:10,604 --> 00:35:14,044 Speaker 2: doubt that risky business listeners would necessarily be able to 620 00:35:14,044 --> 00:35:17,164 Speaker 2: tell Sirachia and or prefer it. But they have an 621 00:35:17,284 --> 00:35:19,284 Speaker 2: iconic brand and you don't want to fuck with that, right, 622 00:35:19,444 --> 00:35:20,804 Speaker 2: You don't want to say, yeah, it's going to taste 623 00:35:20,804 --> 00:35:23,124 Speaker 2: a little bit different. You thinks actually better. You want 624 00:35:23,124 --> 00:35:25,884 Speaker 2: to preserve that iconicness, and that means I think kind 625 00:35:25,924 --> 00:35:27,924 Speaker 2: of correctly being risk averse when it comes to things 626 00:35:27,964 --> 00:35:31,604 Speaker 2: that would affect affect your product quality. 627 00:35:31,684 --> 00:35:34,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. And you know, going so 628 00:35:35,484 --> 00:35:39,804 Speaker 1: going back to that original dispute, I think that you know, 629 00:35:40,124 --> 00:35:42,764 Speaker 1: there were a lot of mistakes there, given that you 630 00:35:42,844 --> 00:35:45,524 Speaker 1: want to protect the taste and kind of the original 631 00:35:45,524 --> 00:35:48,484 Speaker 1: recipe on the quality. Because first of all, they only 632 00:35:48,484 --> 00:35:52,404 Speaker 1: had one single supplier, so we Fong and Underwood just 633 00:35:52,444 --> 00:35:57,204 Speaker 1: work together. And Underwood's only client was we Fong, So 634 00:35:57,244 --> 00:36:01,124 Speaker 1: they ended up just dedicating hundreds of thousands of acres 635 00:36:01,164 --> 00:36:05,484 Speaker 1: of land too, you know, doing just growing these chili 636 00:36:05,564 --> 00:36:08,884 Speaker 1: so that they could supply this one company. And it 637 00:36:08,964 --> 00:36:11,044 Speaker 1: was a part partnership of the minds of the two 638 00:36:11,524 --> 00:36:14,724 Speaker 1: Potter familiases, right, the two heads of the family. And 639 00:36:14,764 --> 00:36:17,804 Speaker 1: they were all handshake deals, like they didn't have contracts. 640 00:36:17,844 --> 00:36:19,684 Speaker 1: It was all just like okay, this year, we're going 641 00:36:19,764 --> 00:36:21,404 Speaker 1: to give you this much and you're going to pay 642 00:36:21,484 --> 00:36:24,004 Speaker 1: us this much. And I was just reading this and 643 00:36:24,044 --> 00:36:26,684 Speaker 1: I was thinking, holy shit, Like, isn't someone at this 644 00:36:26,804 --> 00:36:29,804 Speaker 1: point like maybe that worked like thirty years ago before 645 00:36:29,844 --> 00:36:32,164 Speaker 1: this became a big deal. Now that we're talking about 646 00:36:32,324 --> 00:36:34,724 Speaker 1: this huge business, isn't someone going to tell them this? 647 00:36:34,804 --> 00:36:37,444 Speaker 1: Say't a good idea? Like as a poker player, I 648 00:36:37,484 --> 00:36:40,324 Speaker 1: know that everything needs to be in writing, right, Like 649 00:36:40,444 --> 00:36:42,644 Speaker 1: if you and I, like we have swaps and events, 650 00:36:42,684 --> 00:36:45,004 Speaker 1: we have those in text messages, right, so we actually 651 00:36:45,044 --> 00:36:48,124 Speaker 1: have the exact thing that like, this is the percentage 652 00:36:48,124 --> 00:36:51,044 Speaker 1: that we've swapped. This is how the swap works, so 653 00:36:51,084 --> 00:36:53,364 Speaker 1: that we have a record. How can you be making 654 00:36:53,404 --> 00:36:57,444 Speaker 1: these deals with just one supplier? You know, no no backup, 655 00:36:57,564 --> 00:37:00,804 Speaker 1: no redundancy, nothing, and it's all a handshake deal. Like 656 00:37:00,884 --> 00:37:03,324 Speaker 1: to me, this is this is just a really weird 657 00:37:03,364 --> 00:37:07,124 Speaker 1: way of thinking about risk as a business owner. So 658 00:37:07,444 --> 00:37:10,724 Speaker 1: obviously to me this is more interesting as consumer because 659 00:37:10,724 --> 00:37:13,564 Speaker 1: it causes these sorts of problems. But as a business owner, 660 00:37:13,644 --> 00:37:15,884 Speaker 1: I think that you want to be thinking about risk 661 00:37:15,924 --> 00:37:20,164 Speaker 1: and more in a way that includes diversification, includes redundancies, 662 00:37:20,484 --> 00:37:23,844 Speaker 1: includes kind of these protections so that shit like this 663 00:37:23,964 --> 00:37:26,844 Speaker 1: doesn't happen, especially when you have things like climate change 664 00:37:27,004 --> 00:37:28,924 Speaker 1: which are already threats to your supply. 665 00:37:29,684 --> 00:37:32,524 Speaker 2: Okay, Maria, we've had fun with our hot Sauce segment. 666 00:37:32,884 --> 00:37:37,204 Speaker 2: What is like the actual investigative takeaway that people can 667 00:37:38,044 --> 00:37:41,284 Speaker 2: apply in their everyday lives here? What do we learn 668 00:37:41,444 --> 00:37:42,924 Speaker 2: from today's episode? 669 00:37:43,644 --> 00:37:46,884 Speaker 1: Well, I think that on an individual basis, we learned 670 00:37:46,924 --> 00:37:48,844 Speaker 1: that it's good for me to stockpile, but nobody else 671 00:37:48,844 --> 00:37:51,964 Speaker 1: should stockpile because that's a rational behavior. However, we did 672 00:37:52,124 --> 00:37:55,684 Speaker 1: learn that long term planning is incredibly important on every 673 00:37:55,724 --> 00:37:58,644 Speaker 1: single level, and that starts at the corporate level, right 674 00:37:58,884 --> 00:38:02,124 Speaker 1: and on an individual level, you know, also planning ahead 675 00:38:02,204 --> 00:38:05,764 Speaker 1: is good. That does not necessarily mean stockpiling, but it 676 00:38:05,844 --> 00:38:10,684 Speaker 1: might involve diversifying your tastes so that you do, you know, 677 00:38:10,764 --> 00:38:13,524 Speaker 1: look at the other competitors so that if there is 678 00:38:13,564 --> 00:38:17,404 Speaker 1: a shortage, you can get what's that squirrel called ninja squirrel? 679 00:38:17,444 --> 00:38:21,484 Speaker 1: You can music fryd ninja squirrel and see if it 680 00:38:21,564 --> 00:38:24,124 Speaker 1: stocks up. So so I think that those are those 681 00:38:24,124 --> 00:38:26,164 Speaker 1: are all kind of things that we need to think about. 682 00:38:26,364 --> 00:38:28,644 Speaker 1: And all of these things, like everything we've talked about 683 00:38:28,644 --> 00:38:34,124 Speaker 1: today is kind of centered on our lack of ability 684 00:38:34,204 --> 00:38:37,364 Speaker 1: to think through risk over the long term, right as 685 00:38:37,364 --> 00:38:40,364 Speaker 1: opposed to immediately and to have that sort of long 686 00:38:40,484 --> 00:38:42,604 Speaker 1: term planning mentality. 687 00:38:43,204 --> 00:38:45,244 Speaker 2: Look, if you're this Saratch company, you don't want people 688 00:38:45,524 --> 00:38:48,644 Speaker 2: to realize is that this is actually not a hot sauce. 689 00:38:48,684 --> 00:38:52,964 Speaker 2: It's a medium sauce, a delicious medium sauce. But like 690 00:38:53,484 --> 00:38:56,004 Speaker 2: if people get hooked on like the Abanniro stuff and 691 00:38:56,044 --> 00:38:58,644 Speaker 2: like the Ghost Pepper stuff, you're screwed, right, So you 692 00:38:58,724 --> 00:39:02,364 Speaker 2: better you better shape up and have some inventory ready 693 00:39:02,524 --> 00:39:03,924 Speaker 2: in Q three. I'll take you that much. 694 00:39:04,764 --> 00:39:07,884 Speaker 1: Absolutely. Please do not make me switch brands. I don't 695 00:39:07,924 --> 00:39:10,244 Speaker 1: want to. I want to remain more to you help 696 00:39:10,284 --> 00:39:16,124 Speaker 1: me do that. Thank you, And now, Nate, I'm going 697 00:39:16,204 --> 00:39:18,164 Speaker 1: to be off to play my next event of the 698 00:39:18,164 --> 00:39:21,364 Speaker 1: World series, which is still not going nearly as well 699 00:39:21,404 --> 00:39:23,964 Speaker 1: as yours. I've had one men cash, Nate one min 700 00:39:24,044 --> 00:39:25,564 Speaker 1: cash in the last. 701 00:39:25,284 --> 00:39:29,004 Speaker 2: Week, Maria. It often tends to turn around. It's kind 702 00:39:29,004 --> 00:39:31,444 Speaker 2: of literally random to some large degree. What's what's the 703 00:39:31,484 --> 00:39:32,044 Speaker 2: event today? 704 00:39:33,124 --> 00:39:36,124 Speaker 1: The event today is a two thousand dollars freeze out event. 705 00:39:36,524 --> 00:39:42,844 Speaker 1: So I'm actually, yeah, I'm excited. I appreciate that. I 706 00:39:43,004 --> 00:39:45,164 Speaker 1: really like freeze out events. So freeze out events for 707 00:39:45,244 --> 00:39:47,484 Speaker 1: non poker players means you can only enter one time, 708 00:39:47,724 --> 00:39:49,764 Speaker 1: and in some ways that's the truest form of poker, 709 00:39:50,004 --> 00:39:53,164 Speaker 1: right If you bust your app, you're done. And I 710 00:39:53,204 --> 00:39:56,364 Speaker 1: love that, and so I'm I'm excited for the freeze outs. 711 00:39:56,444 --> 00:39:58,804 Speaker 1: The main event is a freeze out, So I hope 712 00:39:58,884 --> 00:40:01,244 Speaker 1: Nate that today is a Marie event because so far, 713 00:40:01,644 --> 00:40:03,724 Speaker 1: you know, I've had two cases this whole series. I mean, 714 00:40:03,724 --> 00:40:05,564 Speaker 1: I've only played for two weeks, so it's one a week. 715 00:40:05,604 --> 00:40:08,844 Speaker 1: But still it feels like I'm not I'm not doing 716 00:40:08,884 --> 00:40:12,364 Speaker 1: that well and it's time to turn things around. 717 00:40:12,724 --> 00:40:15,204 Speaker 2: Do you feel like you're still playing your A game 718 00:40:15,324 --> 00:40:17,764 Speaker 2: or or is it getting to be a grind? 719 00:40:18,484 --> 00:40:20,604 Speaker 1: No? No, I think I think that it was really nice. 720 00:40:20,964 --> 00:40:22,804 Speaker 1: You know, I took that week off and so I'm 721 00:40:22,804 --> 00:40:25,604 Speaker 1: actually pretty fresh still. And then I took two days off. 722 00:40:26,324 --> 00:40:29,364 Speaker 1: I didn't play Friday or Saturday, which I think is 723 00:40:29,404 --> 00:40:31,444 Speaker 1: important to take these breaks so I actually practice what 724 00:40:31,484 --> 00:40:34,124 Speaker 1: I preach right in my tips for the World Series, 725 00:40:34,164 --> 00:40:36,204 Speaker 1: I said you need to kind of take brain breaks, 726 00:40:36,204 --> 00:40:39,964 Speaker 1: and I did do exactly that. I went hiking on Saturday. 727 00:40:40,084 --> 00:40:42,844 Speaker 1: I ran into a mountain lion, so it wasn't as 728 00:40:42,924 --> 00:40:46,124 Speaker 1: relaxing as I would have wanted it to be. Yes, 729 00:40:46,604 --> 00:40:48,924 Speaker 1: but here I am to tell the tale. But that 730 00:40:49,084 --> 00:40:52,204 Speaker 1: was not the most relaxing hike in the world. PSA. 731 00:40:52,324 --> 00:40:54,724 Speaker 1: There are lots of mountain lions in the Spring Mountains. 732 00:40:55,124 --> 00:40:57,764 Speaker 1: Normally you never see them, but when they start growling 733 00:40:57,764 --> 00:41:01,164 Speaker 1: at you, it means that you have inadvertently impinged on 734 00:41:01,204 --> 00:41:04,204 Speaker 1: their territory, and it's probably a good idea to back 735 00:41:04,244 --> 00:41:06,604 Speaker 1: away and get the fuck out of there, which is 736 00:41:06,604 --> 00:41:07,004 Speaker 1: why I did. 737 00:41:07,044 --> 00:41:10,364 Speaker 2: I didn't intuitively know that we're lion in Las Vegas. 738 00:41:10,844 --> 00:41:12,724 Speaker 1: Oh, there are tons of mountain lions, so the Spring 739 00:41:12,764 --> 00:41:15,204 Speaker 1: Mountains have a lot of them. Red Rock even has some. 740 00:41:15,444 --> 00:41:18,164 Speaker 1: But yes, you are talking to someone who escaped from 741 00:41:18,204 --> 00:41:22,124 Speaker 1: a mountain lion relatively unscathed. I have a I have 742 00:41:22,324 --> 00:41:25,484 Speaker 1: a little uh. Yeah, I have a little cut cut 743 00:41:25,564 --> 00:41:28,204 Speaker 1: up from a fall, as I had as I tried 744 00:41:28,244 --> 00:41:29,804 Speaker 1: to get away. But otherwise I'm good. 745 00:41:30,484 --> 00:41:33,804 Speaker 2: Do lions like siracha? Could it be like? 746 00:41:35,324 --> 00:41:38,724 Speaker 1: Excellent? Excellent idea? I will I will try that next time. 747 00:41:38,924 --> 00:41:41,924 Speaker 2: Join us next time and we will experiment with mountain 748 00:41:42,004 --> 00:41:46,364 Speaker 2: lions and sches sauce A. 749 00:41:49,324 --> 00:41:52,564 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova and me 750 00:41:52,764 --> 00:41:55,804 Speaker 1: Mate Silver. The show is a co production of Pushkin 751 00:41:55,884 --> 00:42:00,444 Speaker 1: Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. 752 00:42:00,804 --> 00:42:04,684 Speaker 1: Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer 753 00:42:04,724 --> 00:42:05,604 Speaker 1: is Jacob Goldstein. 754 00:42:06,204 --> 00:42:08,524 Speaker 2: And if you want to listen to and add three version, 755 00:42:08,564 --> 00:42:11,204 Speaker 2: sign up for pushkar Plus for six thirty nine a month. 756 00:42:11,484 --> 00:42:14,484 Speaker 2: You get access to adre listening. Thanks for tuning in.