WEBVTT - SHARP NFL Week 5 Bets: Bears-Packers, Niners-Seahawks and more 0:00:00.830 --> 0:00:05.290 Welcome to Sharper Square. We are presented by Polymarket and 0:00:05.330 --> 0:00:09.850 we are a part of the Volume Podcast Network. This 0:00:09.950 --> 0:00:12.450 is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes 0:00:12.490 --> 0:00:14.860 the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I 0:00:14.890 --> 0:00:18.919 am joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:24.380 my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:26.300 Chad, how we doing? 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:28.440 Brother, you're on the road. You made a big road 0:00:28.460 --> 0:00:31.430 trip with your dad. Uh, you're coming to us from 0:00:31.450 --> 0:00:34.760 a remote location. I like when you get out of 0:00:34.780 --> 0:00:35.660 the house during the season. 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:39.900 I don't, I'm a creature of habit, but, uh, we 0:00:39.940 --> 0:00:41.339 know we need to switch it up anyway. We need 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:44.640 some wind. So yeah, on the road, seeing my cousin 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:45.580 play some soccer. 0:00:45.940 --> 0:00:46.740 Uh, he's a senior. 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:50.400 So normally I would not be doing anything during the season, 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:51.940 but I have two major family events. 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:53.479 You have a wedding and I had this. 0:00:53.760 --> 0:00:56.720 So yeah, headed down North Carolina, watching some high school 0:00:56.740 --> 0:00:59.880 soccer and, uh, see my man get, you know, I 0:00:59.920 --> 0:01:01.770 think he's like their MVP, so he's getting some award. 0:01:01.810 --> 0:01:02.850 Really proud of him. 0:01:03.590 --> 0:01:05.289 I was trying to find ways to talk my way 0:01:05.330 --> 0:01:07.130 out of it, Chad, but it's like, man, I got 0:01:07.730 --> 0:01:09.290 to go down. You got to spend time with the family. 0:01:09.450 --> 0:01:11.910 You just do it. In the end, you're never going 0:01:11.930 --> 0:01:13.790 to regret it. You're going to be glad you made 0:01:13.810 --> 0:01:16.170 the effort. You're going to have the memory. It's going 0:01:16.190 --> 0:01:18.150 to be awesome. You know what else is going to 0:01:18.170 --> 0:01:23.950 be awesome? This is our NFL Week 5 Thursday show. 0:01:24.010 --> 0:01:25.509 You and I, we're going to talk about some sharp 0:01:25.569 --> 0:01:31.600 calls and brass balls. our underdog and favorite round robins, 0:01:32.260 --> 0:01:36.690 your biggest bets, our sharp versus square, our discord grouper 0:01:37.130 --> 0:01:40.050 of the week. We're going to narrow down to our 0:01:40.290 --> 0:01:47.870 final five official picks of the free $ 25, 000 NFL pick'em contest, 0:01:47.910 --> 0:01:54.080 which is still available for signup, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. Top 10 finishers 0:01:54.300 --> 0:01:59.800 get paid $ 10, 000 first place, Simon. All right. Every week, 0:02:00.860 --> 0:02:03.480 we discuss our picks on Tuesday. By Thursday, you've gotten 0:02:03.540 --> 0:02:11.410 an earful from your professional betting colleagues, what they hate, 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:14.869 what they don't, what they like that I said, which 0:02:14.930 --> 0:02:19.530 is always making me happy. It's time for Sharp Calls. 0:02:20.350 --> 0:02:20.829 Who's there? 0:02:20.910 --> 0:02:26.109 I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody say it. 0:02:26.150 --> 0:02:33.739 Baby, what you doing? Yeah, crazy week with the line movement, Chad. 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:38.210 A lot of guys taking positions and moving pretty big numbers. 0:02:39.430 --> 0:02:41.410 Let's start with the games we loved that the numbers 0:02:41.450 --> 0:02:44.030 have moved. Texans, they were six and a half. We 0:02:44.070 --> 0:02:46.770 talked about it on Tuesday. Just so much money. So 0:02:46.790 --> 0:02:48.470 many guys I've talked to have just had the same 0:02:48.510 --> 0:02:51.850 view I have. It's like, yes, this Texas team isn't 0:02:51.889 --> 0:02:55.270 what we thought they were, but I knew this was 0:02:55.290 --> 0:02:58.510 going to be the Mika Rines, all-in, burn the ships 0:02:58.530 --> 0:03:00.810 type of game. And you saw, even this week, he said, 0:03:00.850 --> 0:03:03.910 I'm taking over the play calling. So my view is 0:03:03.950 --> 0:03:06.090 exactly what it was going to be, was this is 0:03:06.510 --> 0:03:08.589 a D'Amico, this team loves him type of game. So 0:03:08.650 --> 0:03:11.790 tons of calls on that one where all the guys agree. 0:03:11.810 --> 0:03:13.250 Even at seven, minus seven and a half, the guys 0:03:13.290 --> 0:03:14.940 are like, I'd still play it. They had the same 0:03:14.980 --> 0:03:18.140 view of me. If the Texans are a good team, 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:21.160 they should win 20 to 10, 30 to 10. They 0:03:21.180 --> 0:03:24.120 should blow out this Tennessee team. So that was a 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.839 big one of conversation. It's a Miami game, a game 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:30.120 I feel like, We were in on it. We know 0:03:30.139 --> 0:03:33.060 we're supposed to take it. It was 7.5. It was 7. 0:03:33.060 --> 0:03:37.100 Now it's 6.5. I still know professional groups taking a 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:40.100 position on it. If you want to wait now, you 0:03:40.140 --> 0:03:42.500 maybe can get back to 7, but that was definitely 0:03:42.910 --> 0:03:46.690 a big discussion this week. Other games we talked about 0:03:46.710 --> 0:03:49.890 that the line has really moved heavily. Atlanta, I mean, 0:03:50.650 --> 0:03:53.210 talked about it at plus 3.5. Talked about it at 0:03:53.250 --> 0:03:56.090 plus 2.5. Talked about it when they were minus 2.5 favorites. 0:03:57.340 --> 0:03:58.780 Now they're up to minus three and a half. So 0:03:58.820 --> 0:04:01.320 it's just one of those where I was banging it. 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:04.560 Guys were hitting it really hard. Like I know some 0:04:04.580 --> 0:04:07.420 groups have taken really large positions on it and it's 0:04:07.460 --> 0:04:09.440 all a hedge against Lamar. If Lamar plays, you can 0:04:09.470 --> 0:04:11.640 buy your position. That's the whole point and review of it. 0:04:11.660 --> 0:04:14.310 And if he does play with an ankle injury, you're 0:04:14.330 --> 0:04:17.130 getting great value. So that's another line that just, you 0:04:17.150 --> 0:04:19.190 get these rare opportunities and you see the spot where 0:04:19.210 --> 0:04:21.350 it's like, okay, this is a guy where are they 0:04:21.370 --> 0:04:23.930 going to force them back? If he has an ankle injury, 0:04:23.950 --> 0:04:26.960 Lamar Jackson and, We'll find out today, right after our show, 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:28.529 we should know if he's going to practice or not. 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:31.440 If he doesn't practice today, highly unlikely Lamar plays in 0:04:31.460 --> 0:04:34.010 that game. So another game, if you want to take 0:04:34.029 --> 0:04:35.630 a position on minus three and a half, I don't 0:04:35.690 --> 0:04:38.150 hate it. It's just we're trying to give you out 0:04:38.170 --> 0:04:39.669 the best number here. And that's what every pro that 0:04:39.710 --> 0:04:41.470 I talked to was like, yeah, I'm right there with 0:04:41.490 --> 0:04:44.300 you guys. I'm betting that number right now. So that's 0:04:44.310 --> 0:04:46.839 when I really jumped out. Games we might be wrong 0:04:46.940 --> 0:04:50.419 on Packers getting a lot of love from the from 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:53.929 the pros and the Packers. I think I'm dug in, Chad. 0:04:53.990 --> 0:04:55.789 I think I'm dug in on these Bears, man. So 0:04:55.810 --> 0:04:58.990 that's been a fun conversation this week. Just a lot 0:04:59.010 --> 0:05:02.589 of pros on the Packers side. A lot of pros 0:05:02.670 --> 0:05:05.190 on Tampa tonight, which I know we'll talk about. I'm 0:05:05.230 --> 0:05:07.410 still dug in on Dallas. That's another really fun back 0:05:07.450 --> 0:05:10.070 and forth. I get what they're betting. I get it. 0:05:10.110 --> 0:05:11.750 That's a huge number and a bad defense. 0:05:13.230 --> 0:05:16.240 But that's been really interesting to me, just the pros 0:05:16.250 --> 0:05:17.780 who are taking their stand on it. It's really about 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.440 backing the trends. There's just a lot of trends that 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:23.120 favor back and tip here, this big number on Thursday 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:27.560 night and another game where I, you know, might be 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:31.340 missing something here. And the, the pros on their side, 49ers, 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:34.839 the pros just love the 49ers. They're all talking about it. 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:35.339 Wow. 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:38.820 Still pretty dug in on, uh, the Seattle side. So 0:05:38.860 --> 0:05:43.020 that's just one where they just believe the 49ers just 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:45.560 still underrated the betting public and the Seahawks are still 0:05:45.580 --> 0:05:48.109 a little overrated from last year. So that's, that's been 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:49.650 a really fun discussion. I know again, we're going to 0:05:49.670 --> 0:05:52.100 talk more about, so, uh, yeah, as far as it 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:54.080 goes for sharp goals, those are really been the hot topics. 0:05:54.100 --> 0:05:54.780 Those couple of games. 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:57.370 All right. Well, let's talk about that Thursday night game. 0:05:57.700 --> 0:06:01.410 Just briefly Tampa Bay at Dallas, the line started at 0:06:01.470 --> 0:06:04.290 nine and a half moved down to seven and a half. 0:06:04.810 --> 0:06:07.830 It's back up to eight and a half. I know 0:06:07.910 --> 0:06:10.630 that the sharp money moved it all the way down 0:06:11.390 --> 0:06:14.910 and probably the public is coming in and pushing it 0:06:14.970 --> 0:06:17.590 back up as we get closer to game time because 0:06:17.630 --> 0:06:24.089 of all the enthusiasm for what the Cowboys have done 0:06:24.690 --> 0:06:28.170 offensively and just looking at what the Bucks have, their 0:06:28.230 --> 0:06:32.270 own four, they got a backup quarterback. Historically, this is 0:06:32.350 --> 0:06:39.580 when you smash Tampa Bay. I totally get your position completely. 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:44.800 I am desperately trying to keep myself from just betting 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:48.380 Tampa Bay. I have not played the game yet because 0:06:48.420 --> 0:06:52.690 I've been caught betwixt and between, between all the news, 0:06:52.730 --> 0:06:54.520 all the information that's coming in at me right now. 0:06:56.210 --> 0:06:58.469 Yeah, I totally get why the pros are taking Bucs high. 0:06:58.490 --> 0:07:00.950 Bucs underlying numbers aren't, they're not that bad of a team. 0:07:01.010 --> 0:07:04.890 Their defense is really good. It is and it isn't, right? 0:07:04.930 --> 0:07:08.630 They've had interesting matchups to start the year, but you're right. 0:07:08.650 --> 0:07:10.470 They're not as, once again, they're not as bad as 0:07:11.130 --> 0:07:14.210 we all overall perceive. And like the trends I was 0:07:14.250 --> 0:07:18.450 talking about, you know, primetime dogs of seven plus points 0:07:18.970 --> 0:07:21.530 facing the team that's coming off, putting over 30 points. 0:07:21.990 --> 0:07:24.050 There's 17 and five in this spot. Like there's a 0:07:24.070 --> 0:07:27.450 ton of trends that really favor the bucks. We look 0:07:27.470 --> 0:07:29.370 at a bunch of different spots and angles for this one. 0:07:29.390 --> 0:07:31.950 And that's another reason the pros are playing. And we 0:07:31.970 --> 0:07:34.330 talked Cowboys defense. Who are they to be favored by 0:07:34.350 --> 0:07:36.650 over a touchdown against anyone? This is just a very 0:07:36.730 --> 0:07:37.570 bad defense. 0:07:38.350 --> 0:07:40.470 All those reasons. I know it's terrifying. 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:44.239 I just think it's a short week with an undrafted 0:07:44.300 --> 0:07:47.990 rookie quarterback and, he used so much of his luck 0:07:48.050 --> 0:07:50.070 up in that Green Bay game. Like if you really 0:07:50.130 --> 0:07:53.510 watch that game, he's just not, he's not a starter. 0:07:53.670 --> 0:07:56.290 This kid needs three years of coaching. Like he's just 0:07:57.050 --> 0:08:00.760 an incredible athlete. So that's another reason the pros are like, hey, 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:03.940 this could be an undervalued guy who uses his legs 0:08:04.180 --> 0:08:06.580 and could easily run away from this Cowboys defense. We've 0:08:06.620 --> 0:08:10.760 seen struggle against mobile quarterbacks. So it's another game where 0:08:10.780 --> 0:08:12.600 I really was going to take a position on the Cowboys. 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:15.500 And now I'm just, you know, Maybe I'll take Dak 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:17.780 first half instead, go the coward way out. It's minus 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:20.200 five and a half and take positions like that. But 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:24.220 just because there's so much professional money on the Bucs, it's. 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:25.200 Like, you know, I'm a little weary of it, right? 0:08:25.220 --> 0:08:26.300 It feels like I know I'm supposed to bet the 0:08:26.340 --> 0:08:26.760 Cowboys here. 0:08:26.780 --> 0:08:28.660 This is the exact spot the Cowboys beat a team 0:08:29.060 --> 0:08:33.280 by 20, 30 points. But just these trends and, you know, 0:08:33.300 --> 0:08:35.060 the guys I respect, the fact they're on the Bucs, 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:37.870 I'll steer my money to other games than betting this 0:08:37.900 --> 0:08:38.920 big number on this Cowboys team. 0:08:39.750 --> 0:08:43.410 Will we be steering our money to the Philadelphia Eagles 0:08:43.429 --> 0:08:46.680 this Visited, or not visiting, but playing the Jacksonville Jaguars 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:52.470 in London on Sunday. Wild 48 hours for the Eagles. 0:08:53.290 --> 0:08:59.910 Lane Johnson retires. Cam Juergens gets traded. Saquon doesn't practice 0:08:59.990 --> 0:09:05.020 on Wednesday. Devontae Smith doesn't practice on Wednesday. Many other 0:09:05.080 --> 0:09:09.600 starters did not practice on Wednesday. Zach Bond limited in 0:09:09.660 --> 0:09:14.040 practice coming back from the concussion. The line... The look 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:18.500 ahead line, so let's say, you know, preseason line, Eagles 0:09:18.540 --> 0:09:21.719 minus two and a half. It is now Eagles plus 0:09:21.780 --> 0:09:25.480 seven and a half, a 10 point swing, all the money, 0:09:26.140 --> 0:09:32.170 all the tickets on the Jags. Wild, wild turn of events. 0:09:33.510 --> 0:09:37.870 The Jerkins trade almost feels like Howie is packing it in. 0:09:38.850 --> 0:09:41.230 What are you hearing as an Eagles fan, as a 0:09:41.270 --> 0:09:44.340 Philly resident? What are you feeling right now? 0:09:46.059 --> 0:09:47.780 Chad, you're better than that. Do you think the Eagles 0:09:47.800 --> 0:09:49.490 are packing it in after week four, buddy? 0:09:50.130 --> 0:09:52.390 I don't think the Eagles are packing it in. When 0:09:52.429 --> 0:09:54.930 I see that being the conversation, I'm like, it doesn't 0:09:54.950 --> 0:09:56.610 make sense to me. They're going to get healthier. They 0:09:56.650 --> 0:09:59.510 have too much talent. Otherwise, it's not like this defense 0:09:59.530 --> 0:10:02.760 is going to work. to crater, but it does feel 0:10:02.820 --> 0:10:08.610 like people are losing their shit in Philly about what's 0:10:08.620 --> 0:10:11.250 happening with his offensive line, which has been the reason 0:10:11.330 --> 0:10:14.910 why the Eagles have been so good for so long. Yeah. 0:10:15.390 --> 0:10:16.650 It just feels like a misunderstanding. 0:10:16.670 --> 0:10:20.290 I mean, I'm, I, I, to me, if you can 0:10:20.309 --> 0:10:22.250 get a second round pick for Cam Juergens, you take 0:10:22.290 --> 0:10:24.589 that any day of the week. Like I saw some stats, 0:10:24.630 --> 0:10:27.270 there hasn't been an interior offensive lineman traded for a 0:10:27.320 --> 0:10:29.860 pick above a third round pick since 2011. 0:10:29.860 --> 0:10:32.280 So it's very rare. It is random. 0:10:32.340 --> 0:10:33.960 I get why people were just, were shocked. I was 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.840 honestly shocked. I can't believe someone would pay a second 0:10:36.860 --> 0:10:38.140 round pick for Cam Juergens. 0:10:39.070 --> 0:10:39.280 But. 0:10:39.300 --> 0:10:41.210 And he's making a lot of money too. I know 0:10:41.250 --> 0:10:42.990 the Eagles have to figure out some cap stuff. 0:10:43.130 --> 0:10:44.050 Yeah. 0:10:44.270 --> 0:10:44.470 Yeah. 0:10:44.910 --> 0:10:46.650 Yeah. But. 0:10:47.140 --> 0:10:49.400 To me for the Ravens, it makes sense. They're down 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.560 three centers at this point, right? They lost Linderbaum and 0:10:52.580 --> 0:10:54.579 then the two guys they had to replace them both 0:10:54.620 --> 0:10:57.520 got hurt. Cam could step in and be a good 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.530 asset for them. And I think how he looks at 0:11:00.670 --> 0:11:03.689 our backups and just, he's just like, why not? Like 0:11:03.750 --> 0:11:05.590 I just, it can't be worse than what we've been 0:11:05.610 --> 0:11:07.790 putting out there. Like this, if you watch tape and 0:11:08.330 --> 0:11:10.410 you follow these grading services and they give out grades 0:11:10.450 --> 0:11:14.290 every week on these offensive linemen, Cam's been horrible. So 0:11:14.550 --> 0:11:16.940 it's just painful as an Eagles fan because it's, Coming 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:19.040 into the year, the strength of this team was the line. 0:11:19.800 --> 0:11:22.510 Lane is still playing at a very high level, and 0:11:22.910 --> 0:11:26.770 that's a whole other bag to get into of Lane retiring. 0:11:27.429 --> 0:11:28.689 I didn't really want to say too much about it 0:11:28.710 --> 0:11:31.230 because I don't know if he really retired. I don't 0:11:31.250 --> 0:11:33.610 know if this is just he needs to get away 0:11:33.670 --> 0:11:36.490 from it, clear his head, and he'll see maybe in five, 0:11:36.530 --> 0:11:39.040 six weeks, maybe he'll want to come back, or this 0:11:39.140 --> 0:11:41.140 could be really it. He's got a lot going on 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:44.700 in his personal life, Lane. It's an interesting time for 0:11:44.740 --> 0:11:48.839 sure for for being an Eagles fan, Chad. And my 0:11:48.900 --> 0:11:51.860 viewpoint was you just blindly bet the Jags as favorites, 0:11:51.940 --> 0:11:54.819 especially in England. You've now hit a point where the 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:56.679 value has totally shifted to the Eagles. 0:11:56.780 --> 0:11:57.490 Seven and a half. 0:11:58.420 --> 0:12:00.020 I know the books are begging you and you can 0:12:00.070 --> 0:12:01.640 be like me. You can be a sucker and take 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:04.910 that and probably wake up and you're already down 30, 0:12:04.890 --> 0:12:07.090 nothing like this Eagles team could roll over and die, 0:12:07.670 --> 0:12:09.950 but they still have a really good defense. You know, 0:12:10.010 --> 0:12:12.550 their offense, I know they've been absolutely horrible and they're down. 0:12:13.309 --> 0:12:16.880 Like you said, there's down four offensive linemen. They're number 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:20.540 one running back, number one tight end, number one receiver. 0:12:21.420 --> 0:12:23.240 And you've got people in the media saying Jalen Hurts. 0:12:23.260 --> 0:12:24.819 And number two running back, by the way. 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:28.620 Yeah, number two running back. And like Jalen Hurts, yeah, 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:30.440 can he work a miracle and win this game? That 0:12:30.460 --> 0:12:33.500 would be incredible. But I would say go to any 0:12:33.620 --> 0:12:36.160 quarterback on any team and take away all those assets. 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:39.000 They're probably not beating a Jags team that we view 0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.020 now as what, a top five, top six team in 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:43.840 the NFL right now. So it's just a really horrible spot. 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:47.040 So Taking the number, I'll be happily surprised if they 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:50.100 actually win this game outright, but we've just seen the Jags. 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:52.820 They own England. They're just great there, and favorites are 0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:53.800 a great covering there. 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:56.740 Another game I'm happy we can avoid for our contest 0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:58.620 because it's so tempting to put this one in, but 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:01.620 I know better, and I'll just wait and see for 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:02.160 the Seagulls team. 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:05.680 Minnesota at New Orleans. This one was Simon Says. New 0:13:05.700 --> 0:13:10.339 Orleans is down to 1.5. It started at 2.5. It 0:13:10.380 --> 0:13:16.179 was at 2 on Tuesday when we made it Simon Says. Basically, 0:13:16.220 --> 0:13:18.660 this is a sharp move. Like the majority of the 0:13:18.700 --> 0:13:22.140 tickets are on the Vikings, a little bit more than 50% 0:13:22.140 --> 0:13:25.850 of the money on the Vikings, but definitely it's sharp 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:30.530 money that is moving this number in the direction of 0:13:30.550 --> 0:13:35.790 the Saints. Has anything changed in your opinion on this game? 0:13:37.870 --> 0:13:39.330 No, like, like that's why I want to get two 0:13:39.350 --> 0:13:40.550 and a half though, because I want to get every 0:13:40.590 --> 0:13:43.850 number I can just because we've seen these glaring weaknesses 0:13:43.950 --> 0:13:44.670 on the Saints team. 0:13:45.429 --> 0:13:48.020 And I feel like if the pros keep betting it, 0:13:48.220 --> 0:13:48.929 it could have flipped. 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.059 And that's why it's like, all right, get the, get 0:13:51.100 --> 0:13:52.700 the two and a half now, because I knew the 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:54.000 pros would come in on it. Cause it's such a, 0:13:54.020 --> 0:13:56.560 I wouldn't call it a lazy spot, but it really 0:13:56.620 --> 0:13:58.959 is where it's, we all know the Vikings are overrated 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.679 right now, right? They're not one of the, they're not 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:02.179 the chiefs. 0:14:02.220 --> 0:14:04.830 We're also four and up. They're just, they're not comparable. 0:14:05.050 --> 0:14:07.050 We could see the chiefs continue to success the rest 0:14:07.070 --> 0:14:09.910 of the season, Minnesota, the public, I think still is 0:14:09.929 --> 0:14:12.450 unsure about them as well. Cause Kyler, he hasn't been 0:14:12.490 --> 0:14:14.829 laying the word on either since he started, he's been playing. So, 0:14:15.340 --> 0:14:17.220 That's really what this position is about. I still don't 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.370 think Kyle is comfortable yet. And as great as the 0:14:20.410 --> 0:14:23.550 Vikings defense has been, we have seen in the past, 0:14:24.350 --> 0:14:27.710 they are susceptible to being passed on. Like as you know, 0:14:27.750 --> 0:14:31.090 we've seen before, like they, they blitz heavy. If a 0:14:31.150 --> 0:14:33.400 quarterback can read the blitz and know where his number, 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:35.480 his go route is, or his hot rate, his hot 0:14:35.540 --> 0:14:38.360 read is he can tear up the Vikings defense. And 0:14:38.900 --> 0:14:41.360 that's the way blind Flores does it. He's like, okay, 0:14:42.140 --> 0:14:44.080 beat me for a touchdown or I'm sacking you. And 0:14:44.100 --> 0:14:46.580 now you're in third and 20. Like he's just, he 0:14:46.620 --> 0:14:48.920 knows the risk he's taking because the defense doesn't have 0:14:49.340 --> 0:14:51.260 a bunch of studs. It's a bunch of just guys. 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:53.780 And that's, what's been so oppressive. I mean, you look 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:57.090 at their defense, I think they're rated number one. And 0:14:57.110 --> 0:15:00.370 then they're so far above EPA per play. They're like 0:15:00.490 --> 0:15:02.930 a full point above Seattle. Who's the number two defense. 0:15:02.990 --> 0:15:07.110 It's just Minnesota's defense has been so insane. You expect 0:15:07.150 --> 0:15:08.910 to come back down to earth at some point. So, 0:15:09.670 --> 0:15:12.170 Saints team coming off a really bad, embarrassing loss. 0:15:12.490 --> 0:15:13.190 Public eye. 0:15:13.610 --> 0:15:14.770 We just knew we were going to get a free 0:15:14.810 --> 0:15:17.410 point or two here. I still think you're still getting it. 0:15:17.450 --> 0:15:20.510 Like the Saints being a pick them in this feels 0:15:20.550 --> 0:15:22.040 more right. So you're still getting a point and a 0:15:22.030 --> 0:15:23.880 half of value. If you want to take the Saints, 0:15:23.890 --> 0:15:25.420 but that's why I gave it out on a Tuesday. 0:15:25.460 --> 0:15:27.140 It's like grab it two and a half. Now it's 0:15:27.180 --> 0:15:29.520 a key number. It could still get back there. I 0:15:29.540 --> 0:15:32.440 still think the public comes Sunday. We'll back this Vikings 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:35.940 team and we might get back to it, but no, 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:37.860 I'm not slamming the table now to make people take 0:15:37.900 --> 0:15:38.780 it a plus one, plus. 0:15:38.660 --> 0:15:39.080 One and a half. 0:15:39.770 --> 0:15:42.010 I think you and I both still believe a little 0:15:42.050 --> 0:15:47.710 bit in Tyler Schuch and the magic he can concoct 0:15:47.770 --> 0:15:50.890 at the end of games when he's just slinging it 0:15:51.450 --> 0:15:55.590 and they're moving down the field and he has no fear. 0:15:56.530 --> 0:15:59.290 It tends to work to our advantage when we're betting 0:15:59.350 --> 0:16:03.100 on the Saints. Obviously, last week for fans, it didn't. 0:16:03.510 --> 0:16:05.960 And we were happy to be on the Falcons. But 0:16:06.260 --> 0:16:09.150 as you said, he's going to get blitzed. if he 0:16:09.170 --> 0:16:11.030 can get the ball off, if he can get that 0:16:11.110 --> 0:16:14.510 millisecond of protection, he is going to find opportunities to 0:16:14.550 --> 0:16:18.170 hit guys downfield that play to the Saints' advantage in 0:16:18.190 --> 0:16:22.060 a game like this. All right. It is time for 0:16:22.980 --> 0:16:29.740 our Brass Balls Trade of the Week, presented by Polymarket. 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.380 And that is going to be, get ready for it, 0:16:32.380 --> 0:16:38.210 because there was a big debate, big debate. The Washington... 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:44.660 commanders trading at three and a half on Polymarket at 52%. 0:16:44.660 --> 0:16:48.330 You know what it takes? 0:16:48.990 --> 0:16:50.550 It takes brass balls. 0:16:51.210 --> 0:16:58.390 All right. Washington commanders trading at three and a half, 52% 0:16:58.390 --> 0:17:05.000 on Polymarket. That is our brass balls trade of the week. Look, 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:10.260 I think... this is largely about Jaden Daniels being expected 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:13.100 to play. He was a full participant in practice this week. 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:18.520 Jameis is feeling himself coming off of a big, big 0:17:18.700 --> 0:17:25.869 upset win at home. It's interesting to me, 80% of 0:17:25.890 --> 0:17:28.409 the tickets are on the, more than 80% of the 0:17:28.450 --> 0:17:33.250 tickets are on the Giants right now. So I like 0:17:33.330 --> 0:17:37.580 going with the commanders here. It's weird to have a 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:42.490 brass balls be a more than a field goal favorite, 0:17:43.450 --> 0:17:46.230 but there's so much public sentiment for the Giants here. 0:17:46.970 --> 0:17:48.669 That's why I feel like it qualifies for us. 0:17:50.330 --> 0:17:53.459 Yeah, it's also how rare is a three-in-one team is 0:17:53.540 --> 0:17:59.120 a three-and-a-half-point dog to a one-in-three team. Normally, me, Chad, 0:17:59.140 --> 0:18:01.340 would be all over the Giants, right? Divisional dog, getting 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:04.070 the hook. But I feel like you need to talk 0:18:04.090 --> 0:18:06.730 about Jameis, right? You got Jameis feeling himself after a 0:18:06.770 --> 0:18:10.030 big win. This is the exact game Jameis throws us 0:18:10.050 --> 0:18:12.560 like four picks. I mean, it's just these are the 0:18:12.580 --> 0:18:14.139 type of games he just totally lays an egg. And 0:18:14.540 --> 0:18:16.880 Janie Daniels plays really well in these type of matchups. 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:20.940 And we've seen this year this Giants defense. They've also 0:18:20.980 --> 0:18:24.520 struggled against more wild quarterbacks. And, you know, as much 0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:26.850 as I like to hate on Dan Quinn, The one 0:18:26.869 --> 0:18:28.790 thing he does well is he beats the Giants. I 0:18:28.810 --> 0:18:30.729 think in his career, he's 6-0 straight up and he's 0:18:30.750 --> 0:18:35.149 5-1 against the spread since 2015. So he just, he 0:18:35.250 --> 0:18:38.169 always does well coaching against the Giants in this division, especially. 0:18:38.550 --> 0:18:42.690 And I get why the public is backing the Giants, right? 0:18:42.710 --> 0:18:44.330 They have so many questions about this Washington team. I 0:18:44.770 --> 0:18:47.490 think it's been sneakily underrated how good this Washington team 0:18:47.530 --> 0:18:49.320 has gotten each week. Like I know last week they 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:52.420 lost to the Colts. They were playing really tough until 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:54.119 Mary got knocked to that game and they kind of 0:18:54.140 --> 0:18:56.310 just gave it away in the second half. So, I 0:18:56.350 --> 0:18:59.310 think the defense has been improving under Quinn. We've seen 0:18:59.390 --> 0:19:04.010 this offense. When Jaden is in there, they're pretty dang good. So, yeah, 0:19:04.070 --> 0:19:05.530 it just feels like a nice bounce back shot for 0:19:05.550 --> 0:19:07.610 this community and a letdown game for this Giants team. 0:19:09.369 --> 0:19:14.129 I agree with you about the defense. Sonny Stiles, as 0:19:14.190 --> 0:19:18.290 a linebacker, has been incredibly good. I feel like they 0:19:18.369 --> 0:19:23.210 are improving. What are you seeing when you watch Sonny Stiles? 0:19:23.230 --> 0:19:27.460 Because that, to me... could be a game-changing pick for 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:31.740 them that solidifies what could have been a terrible, terrible defense. 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:35.540 We said it coming out about Sonny, though. He had 0:19:35.580 --> 0:19:38.820 no weaknesses. That was his whole– everyone talking about coming 0:19:38.859 --> 0:19:41.290 out of Ohio State. This kid is just a guaranteed– 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:44.300 you're going to draft him. He'll be a linebacker for 0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:45.859 you for the next 10 to 15 years. Just an 0:19:45.900 --> 0:19:49.609 absolute stud. He's been above what they said. He is 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:52.439 great at rushing the quarterbacks. He's great in coverage. He's 0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:55.100 great at reading the quarterback's eyes. He's great at against 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:57.639 the run. He just does it all. And I mean, 0:19:57.660 --> 0:20:00.010 he talked about it last week. He didn't play well enough. 0:20:00.090 --> 0:20:02.510 He got, he got bullied around. And I, that's another 0:20:02.530 --> 0:20:04.790 reason I like him to bounce back. It's that coach 0:20:04.810 --> 0:20:07.070 team is a well-oiled machine when they're running with Jonathan Taylor. 0:20:07.570 --> 0:20:09.550 It's not the same with the Giants. It just simply 0:20:09.590 --> 0:20:13.030 is not. So, yeah, like I said, I was a 0:20:13.050 --> 0:20:14.530