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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily

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Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. We've

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Speaker 1: been telling all of you this week on Bloomberg Radio

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Speaker 1: and television the anticipation for the speech by Chairman Paul

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Speaker 1: at Jackson Hall. We need to stop and explain Jackson Hall.

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Speaker 1: It is a beautiful place with mountains that only Michael

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Speaker 1: McKee has climbed across the lake with a moose in

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Speaker 1: the background in the lodge. I've had the privilege of

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Speaker 1: being there for some very important meetings during the financial crisis,

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Speaker 1: but this year is absolutely unique, run by the Kansas

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Speaker 1: City Fed and they're wonderful and interesting. Esther George Jackson

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Speaker 1: Hall will be virtual meeting to begin our coverage are

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee spoke with Esther George and they began on

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Speaker 1: the framework at hand. Let's listen. I will just offer

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Speaker 1: you from my perspective that this has been I think

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Speaker 1: a useful process. It's been a process that really asked

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Speaker 1: of ourselves to look at what we've learned over the

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Speaker 1: past decade, to try to think about how the economy

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Speaker 1: may have changed, and importantly, to think about how we

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Speaker 1: communicate to the public. So the process in and of itself,

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Speaker 1: I think has been a useful one, and I will

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Speaker 1: leave to the Chairman to talk about what we've learned

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Speaker 1: from that. Well, you've been considered an inflation hawk. Where

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Speaker 1: are you on this idea of average inflation targeting? So

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Speaker 1: my focus on inflation, Mike, as you known, is to

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Speaker 1: be true to our price stability mandate. UH that are

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Speaker 1: two percent target UM really has to represent what's happening

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Speaker 1: in the real economy. And so as we think about

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Speaker 1: ways to better communicate to the public, UM, I've never

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Speaker 1: thought of two as a ceiling, but to really stay

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Speaker 1: focused on what anchors inflation expectations in the economy. So

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Speaker 1: from a communication standpoint, UM, I think we will be

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Speaker 1: talking about the kinds of things that help us do

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Speaker 1: a better job of achieving our objectives. Wall Streets betting,

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Speaker 1: or at least many of people on Wall Street are

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Speaker 1: betting that the FED will change its forward guidance in September.

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Speaker 1: Some of your colleagues say, don't need to do that.

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Speaker 1: Yet where are you so? I would agree when I

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Speaker 1: look at what the Fellow Reserve has done since March

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Speaker 1: UM in terms of interest rate policy, in terms of

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Speaker 1: asset purchases and the credit facilities we've had, I think

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Speaker 1: trying to gauge what else does the economy need is

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Speaker 1: probably premature. I think we are beginning to see signs

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Speaker 1: of a recovery. We're beginning to see where the economy

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Speaker 1: may have shortfalls, where it may be doing okay, but

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Speaker 1: that is going to take some time. So thinking about

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Speaker 1: what those other things are I think has been a

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Speaker 1: useful discussion. Whether it's time to activate those things is

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Speaker 1: something we'll be debating leading and run up to your

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Speaker 1: conference and GEIRMYN. Powell's speech, there's an awful lot of

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Speaker 1: discussion about inflation going on on Wall Street and in

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Speaker 1: the financial community. Um, do you think that the all

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Speaker 1: the stimulus that's been pumped into the economy is perhaps

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Speaker 1: an inflation danger down the road? Well, As a central banker,

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Speaker 1: I think we always keep our eyes on inflation and

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Speaker 1: what impetus may come to that. I think importantly what

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Speaker 1: we see today are really generally deflationary kinds of forces.

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Speaker 1: So until demand comes back, until we see the economy

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Speaker 1: regain its footing, it's hard to see in the near term.

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Speaker 1: But as you point out, there is a lot of

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Speaker 1: stimulus that may be out there at the point that

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Speaker 1: the economy regains its footing, and we'll have to look

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Speaker 1: and see what impact we see through prices at that point,

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Speaker 1: but today is probably not that day. Well, let's focus

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Speaker 1: on your district. The district, how would you describe the

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Speaker 1: economy there right now? So I think we see some

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Speaker 1: encouraging signs. Uh. This region, of course, has experienced the

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Speaker 1: virus in different time frames, in different levels of spread

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Speaker 1: over the last five months, and what we see overall

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Speaker 1: is there has been some improvement in the job market.

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Speaker 1: We have seen some businesses that are beginning to come back,

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Speaker 1: but of course that's coming back from a very low level.

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Speaker 1: Particular to this region, of course, things like agriculture and

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Speaker 1: energy are very prominent. We know the farm sector has

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Speaker 1: been under some stress for some time with low farm incomes,

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Speaker 1: and this episode puts further stress on that, causing the

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Speaker 1: farm sector to have to rely more heavily, for example,

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Speaker 1: on government supports. Energy too, with the rapid decline in

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Speaker 1: oil prices um productivity and the producers had to lay

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Speaker 1: down their rigs. Uh. So those two sectors in particular

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Speaker 1: in our region already under some stress. It will take

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Speaker 1: some time, I think for them to come back. I

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Speaker 1: can ask you to expand on the labor market. What

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Speaker 1: are employers telling you right now? Do they need more people?

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Speaker 1: Can they find more people? Or are they just sitting

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Speaker 1: back at this point and saying we have to wait

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Speaker 1: and see where the economy goes. So we hear a

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Speaker 1: variety of things that won't surprise you, but very important.

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Speaker 1: As we've talked to our contacts in the region. Again,

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Speaker 1: it is often a function of the sector Therein if

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Speaker 1: they're in a part of the economy where they're dependent

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Speaker 1: on air travel, dependent on entertainment or dining, Uh, they

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Speaker 1: are struggling and having a harder time and bringing people

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Speaker 1: back in those sectors looks to be uh some time away.

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Speaker 1: We also hear that some are having a hard time

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Speaker 1: bringing people back because they felt like they were competing

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Speaker 1: with some of the jobless benefits. Whether that's true today

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Speaker 1: UM is less clear. So there are a number of

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Speaker 1: dynamics that are affecting that labor market and that of course,

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Speaker 1: is why it will take us some time to see

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Speaker 1: where does all this shake out in terms of how

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Speaker 1: that labor market heals and how we begin to see

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Speaker 1: growth resume in the economy, as you George of the

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Speaker 1: Kansas City Federal right now, as we look to Jackson

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Speaker 1: Hall right now, as we look to the American economy.

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Speaker 1: Peter Hooper has provided extraordinary leadership at Deutsche Bank to

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Speaker 1: do the harnessing and economics, which is to put a

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Speaker 1: team together where you lean forward and it's anything from

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Speaker 1: the words Seravellos in London and Ellen Ruskin of course

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Speaker 1: over to Matt Lozetti and the US economic team as well. Peter,

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Speaker 1: how is your team adjusted in the last number of days?

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Speaker 1: Are you marking down Q three in Q four economic growth? Well, Tim,

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Speaker 1: we have not yet marked down growth. The numbers have actually,

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Speaker 1: until yesterday's UH confidence slip numbers have been coming in

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Speaker 1: a bit stronger UH and despite the setbacks on on

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Speaker 1: the virus side, we we were inclined to mark up

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Speaker 1: our second half numbers just a bit in light of

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Speaker 1: data coming in now had an interested in discussion on

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Speaker 1: the fiscal side. Obviously, if we don't get a resolution,

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Speaker 1: we're assuming one and a half trillion in in fiscal

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Speaker 1: support coming along here soon. If that doesn't materialize, and

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Speaker 1: it's it's a very different picture. But assuming we get

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Speaker 1: the phisical support, the numbers so far say that are

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Speaker 1: are five and a half percent growth number declined for

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Speaker 1: the year, maybe a little bit too weak. Things looking

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Speaker 1: just a little stronger, and and today's durable goods report

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Speaker 1: sort of shaded slightly on that side as well. When

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Speaker 1: you talk about the fiscal support, it comes ahead of

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Speaker 1: that jobless claims number tomorrow that is expecting to be

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Speaker 1: expected to be the twenty third reading UH one million

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Speaker 1: or more out of this past twenty four weeks. Where

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Speaker 1: are you seeing unemployment ending the year at this point,

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Speaker 1: given the ongoing announcements of layoffs that we keep hearing

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Speaker 1: from major companies, Lisa, we we think it'll slip, it'll

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Speaker 1: get below ten percent, but not by much where some

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Speaker 1: somewhere in the nine percent range. This this is going

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Speaker 1: to be a slow process of getting unemployment down UH.

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Speaker 1: Certainly UH GDP growth, the level of GDP not getting

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Speaker 1: back to pre UH pre virus levels until early two.

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Speaker 1: So it's it's gonna be it's gonna be a long

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Speaker 1: slow slog on on improving this labor market substantially. I

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Speaker 1: will say that the quote of the year possibly came

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Speaker 1: from Vincent de Laard in a story a boy Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Sarah ponzac He said, I would summarize as the bear

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Speaker 1: market for humans, where companies that had the fewest humans

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Speaker 1: relative to the market value to the best and you

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Speaker 1: saw humans cut in droves. What does this say in

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Speaker 1: terms of wage deflation? Well, you know, it depends on

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Speaker 1: depends on a sector you're looking at. There are some

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Speaker 1: shortages in some areas, you are seeing some increasement, but

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Speaker 1: over overall, I think in the service sector, the sectors

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Speaker 1: where you've seen a sharp cutback and demand is likely

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Speaker 1: to persist for some time until we get the vaccine,

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Speaker 1: until that's widely available, and we're not assuming we'll be

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Speaker 1: there until probably in the middle of next year. Uh.

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Speaker 1: With something that's widely available and effective. Um, it's going

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Speaker 1: to be it's gonna be a negative for for for wage,

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Speaker 1: wage and alation. Uh. Certainly households have obviously household income

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Speaker 1: has gotten a huge boost. On the fiscal side, You've

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Speaker 1: seen incomes rise substantially. UM that that points to the

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Speaker 1: critical importance of getting something done here, uh and in

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Speaker 1: the weeks ahead getting a resolution on on this, uh

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Speaker 1: the support package. If we don't get it, we're looking

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Speaker 1: at the possibility of a double dip procession Q four

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Speaker 1: Q one and uh, further negatives on wage inflation. Certainly,

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Speaker 1: this is an incredibly important statement by Dr Hooper. Folks,

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Speaker 1: let me explain this again on the standard nb er

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Speaker 1: discussion of negative GDP two quarters in a real Q

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Speaker 1: four Q one. And I know it's squishy and Dr

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Speaker 1: Hooper is not like getting out a calculator to figure

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Speaker 1: that out. But the idea of going back into recession, Peter,

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Speaker 1: is across a country of immense inequalities. How have our

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Speaker 1: politicians not acted so far? Are we see action in Germany,

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Speaker 1: action in the United Kingdom and we can't seem to

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Speaker 1: get it done to avoid the Hooper recession? Yeah, well

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Speaker 1: that's uh Hooper recession if if we get no further

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Speaker 1: fiscal support, if the vaccine doesn't materialize until well into

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Speaker 1: next year. I mean we're looking at some some clear

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Speaker 1: negatives here. As I said, the data to now have

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Speaker 1: been a little bit more positive. But Slippage, John slippag

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Speaker 1: John consumer confidence UH, and the possibility of further setbacks

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Speaker 1: on on COVID nineteen as we go into the winter months. UM.

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Speaker 1: These these these all UH say we're we're looking at

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Speaker 1: the potential for a more negative picture than certainly built

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Speaker 1: into the market at this point. I will just say, Peter,

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Speaker 1: one of the big confusing points for me is that

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Speaker 1: as we talk about the potential for a double depercession

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Speaker 1: and yet the work that we've seen from the Federal

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Speaker 1: Reserve from easing of credit standards, we are seeing an

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Speaker 1: actual tightening in lending standards by banks. And this comes

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Speaker 1: from Goldman Sacks. They put out a report showing the

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Speaker 1: fastest pace of tightening in in loans to businesses over

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Speaker 1: the past couple of months, going back to the last recession.

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Speaker 1: Does this concern you? Is this the banks seeing something

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Speaker 1: that the rest of the market isn't well, Lisa, It's interesting, Yes,

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Speaker 1: those lending standards have been tightening impressively, as as you

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Speaker 1: would expect when economic situation de jurates significantly. At the

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Speaker 1: same time, the default rate, which normally catches up to

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Speaker 1: these kinds of tightening, has not really moved that much.

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Speaker 1: I think. I think the aggressiveness of the fiscal response

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Speaker 1: that we saw initially, the and the support through p PP,

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Speaker 1: the and the feds UH main street lending facility waiting

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Speaker 1: the wings. That hasn't been a factor yet, but we

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Speaker 1: do expect it will become more important. All of these

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Speaker 1: are leading to a little bit of a disconnect between

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Speaker 1: this tightening of standards and the eventual fallout in terms

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Speaker 1: of what's gonna happen. Has credit crunch, ships, businesses. Peter Hooper,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much with Deutsche Bay greatly appreciate it

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Speaker 1: and look forward to your thoughts after Jacksonhole as ahead

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Speaker 1: of their economic research right now and arguably the interview

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Speaker 1: of the day on what doesn't matter at the conventions.

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Speaker 1: Libby Cantrill joins us now with PIMCO Head of Public Policy.

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Speaker 1: Libby I spoke with Westernman of Arkansas yesterday. He says

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Speaker 1: Hot Springs and Southern Arkansas, Western Arkansas are doing well.

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Speaker 1: They're removed from all of his trauma. And then you

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Speaker 1: go to Kenosha, Wisconsin. In the uproar of the last

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Speaker 1: three days, including death last night, and in between, there's

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Speaker 1: a huge part of the country desperate for stimulus. Can

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Speaker 1: we get stimulus once it's conventions over. Yeah, well, good morning, Tom. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean we've we have, PIMCO have and I specifically

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Speaker 1: have been talking about the additional stimulus was a question

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Speaker 1: of of win, not if. Now that win has definitely

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Speaker 1: taken longer, certainly than I thought it was going to. Um.

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Speaker 1: The the sort of the perennial stumbling blocks around the

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Speaker 1: level of benefit, and specifically as it relates to unemployment insurance,

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Speaker 1: Local and state funding a big issue for Democrats. They

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Speaker 1: got very little in the Cares Act. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: hundred fifty billion dollars for states and cities. Democrats want

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Speaker 1: more in this next round. And then you know, funding

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Speaker 1: for usps UM. These are the obstacles really to getting

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Speaker 1: a deal. I continue to think there is a framework

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Speaker 1: for a deal. I think that the inflection point will

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Speaker 1: likely be the end of September though, that is when

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Speaker 1: Congress has to come together to pass a funding bill

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Speaker 1: to avoid a government shutdown, So we may have to

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Speaker 1: wait until then. Um. And again we thought it was

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Speaker 1: gonna happen sooner, but some of these partisan issues just

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Speaker 1: gotta have gotten in the way. Let me Lisa bram

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Speaker 1: Wants mentioned brilliantly American Airlines nineteen thousand. They're taking a

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Speaker 1: forty thousand down with early retirement, best buy out with

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Speaker 1: whatever the number is. Our politicians in your world moved

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Speaker 1: by actual firings. Yeah, I mean, look, I think that

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Speaker 1: I think if you, if you talk to folks on

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Speaker 1: the hill, there there is an acknowledgement that, certainly, um,

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Speaker 1: the the economy needs another shot in the arm. I

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Speaker 1: think these headlines certainly underscore that. Um So again, I

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Speaker 1: think that the there's a broader acknowledgement that the political

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Speaker 1: risk in particular going into the election without having additional stimulus,

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Speaker 1: sort of speaking to your point, just the headline risk

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Speaker 1: of going into the election companies announcing more firings is

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Speaker 1: just too great for politicians. So again, I think they

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Speaker 1: will come together to pass something, just taking taking longer

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Speaker 1: than certainly what we expected. So we're not hearing much

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Speaker 1: noise out of Washington right now other than the r

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Speaker 1: n C and the d n C. And yet every

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Speaker 1: week that goes on, economists say hurts the economy based

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Speaker 1: on lack of extension of this program. When you talk

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Speaker 1: to portfolio managers within PIMCO, how do you help them

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Speaker 1: gauge the risk of a prolonged negotiation process. When can

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Speaker 1: they expect some sort of deal to get done and

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Speaker 1: what are the consequences of the delay. Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: the earliest at this point, given that you know, folks

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Speaker 1: are on the hill are out for their their usual

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Speaker 1: August recess, really is going to be the middle of

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Speaker 1: September at the very earliest. But that's when they come back.

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Speaker 1: So that would be predicated on a deal being struck

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Speaker 1: before then, but probably, as I said, late September again,

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Speaker 1: that is when Congress has to come together to pass

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Speaker 1: a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown, And it

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Speaker 1: looks very likely that these two things are combined. From

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Speaker 1: an economic perspective, we are seeing some states apply for

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Speaker 1: that added benefit that the President authorized under his executive order.

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Speaker 1: There's some issues with that, and of course that benefit

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Speaker 1: is about half of what we saw under the Cares

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Speaker 1: Actum and only lasts for sort of four to five weeks,

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Speaker 1: so there is a risk obviously, And we're seeing some

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Speaker 1: of the preliminary data consumer confidence is lagging. You're seeing

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Speaker 1: some other data metrics that the economy is once again slowing.

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Speaker 1: So again I think there's a broad acknowledgement of the

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Speaker 1: Hill that something needs to be done. Um, just a

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Speaker 1: question of how they get there. Is it an under

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Speaker 1: priced risk that it's going to take a while? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean I think at this point the market does

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Speaker 1: seem to be priced in in uh surprising in some

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Speaker 1: additional stimulus, and so certainly that is a tail risk.

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Speaker 1: If everything falls apart in October, we don't have a deal,

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Speaker 1: folks will be back in their districts campaigning for the election,

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Speaker 1: and then it does look very unlikely that you get

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Speaker 1: something until after the election. So that certainly is you know,

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Speaker 1: is a tail risk. It doesn't seem that markets are

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Speaker 1: necessarily focused on that Libby in your world? Is there

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Speaker 1: a middle ground? Is there a middle Democrat, a middle

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Speaker 1: Republican and they have political power a political voice now

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Speaker 1: and after November? Yeah, I mean, Tom, it's it's a

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Speaker 1: great question. Um. There there are certain constituencies on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 1: There's the problem Solvers Caucus that is a bipartisan caucus

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Speaker 1: that is um sort of aimed at that center demographic

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Speaker 1: that you that you talk about, Um, and we'll see.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this will obviously be predicated on the election outcome,

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Speaker 1: but something I think it's sort of important especially for

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Speaker 1: the markets. To keep in mind if there is a

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Speaker 1: Democratic suite, So if Joe Biden is elected to president,

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Speaker 1: Democrats control the Senate and win back control of the Senate,

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Speaker 1: you have to remember that who are those Democrats that

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Speaker 1: are making those majorities in both the House and the Senate.

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Speaker 1: They're actually from either purple districts or even red districts

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Speaker 1: or red states. Um, so there will be kind of

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Speaker 1: a more moderating force within the Democratic Party who are

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Speaker 1: probably going to be more inclined as reaching across the aisle.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think, you know, centrism is totally dead,

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Speaker 1: but obviously, over the last decade or so, our politics

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Speaker 1: have become so polarized Jerry Mandarin I think is exacerbated.

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Speaker 1: Lack of earmarks have exacerbated this. So they're certainly the demographic,

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Speaker 1: but it is it is sort of a smaller one, unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: Lett me cancel, thank you so much. With PIMCO, I

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Speaker 1: think there's a lot of dat opportunities that are available

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Speaker 1: to people who who are creative, who have a vision

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Speaker 1: for the future. I think you know, in ten years

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Speaker 1: will look back and there'll be ten world class companies

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Speaker 1: that were created by people who we probably think are

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Speaker 1: thinking are crazy right about now a gentleman from Pittsburgh Cuban,

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Speaker 1: What an interesting life at University of Pittsburgh and on

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Speaker 1: he went to huge prosperity, including invigorating many would say enthusiasm,

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Speaker 1: literally how owners should be within sports with his Dallas

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Speaker 1: Mavericks as well. Always an eventful interview, made more so

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Speaker 1: by David Rubinstein appeared appear, uh, the gentleman from Carlisle Group,

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Speaker 1: and of course we've been thrilled with his wonderful interviews. Well,

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Speaker 1: how do you prepare for a Mark Cuban interviewed David

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Speaker 1: Rubinstein book. I read that, Um, he's got lots of press,

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Speaker 1: so he's read all the articles about him over the

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Speaker 1: last two years or so. But he is a person

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Speaker 1: that's very smart. I mean, if you don't know him,

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Speaker 1: you might think he's just a bombastic person who spouts

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Speaker 1: out things at basketball games. But he's a very, very

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Speaker 1: smart person. He built a company way ahead of the

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Speaker 1: technology revolution, sold at a big price, and he managed

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Speaker 1: to uh make certain that the profits didn't go away

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Speaker 1: when the tech bubble burst occurred. And he's made a

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Speaker 1: lot of money over the years. But he's actually very thoughtful,

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Speaker 1: and I think the interview was much more impressive than

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Speaker 1: I thought it might have been. You have been good

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Speaker 1: engaging politicians to be It is the discussion of Mark

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Speaker 1: Cuban entering American politics, any inclination of that. Well, like

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Speaker 1: a lot of people who make a lot of money

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Speaker 1: and don't know what to do with themselves afterwards, because

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Speaker 1: they got all the material things they want, they say,

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Speaker 1: why not run for president? Nited states This idea has

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Speaker 1: occurred to a couple of people obviously, and Mark Cuban

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Speaker 1: actually was a friend of of Donald Trump and Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump and when he was running for president initially talked

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Speaker 1: to Mark because he thought Mark was supporting and then

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Speaker 1: ultimately Mark decided not to Mark looked at running for

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Speaker 1: president this time and concluded after doing some polling that

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Speaker 1: he wouldn't get very far and didn't want to do it.

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Speaker 1: His family also wasn't in favor of it. But he's

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Speaker 1: still only sixty two years old and he could run again.

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Speaker 1: So do you expect Mark Cuban? You know, I think

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Speaker 1: there'll be a lot of people in four But I

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Speaker 1: would say the idea of that a wealthy business person

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Speaker 1: who has a lot of money to spend, could run

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Speaker 1: for president United States and actually win. It's not as

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Speaker 1: ridiculous as it once was. So I wouldn't rule anything out.

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Speaker 1: But Mark is actually very creative and what he's done

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Speaker 1: with the Mavericks is pretty impressive. He bought it for

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Speaker 1: about two eight million dollars is probably worth two and

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Speaker 1: a half to three billion now. Um, and he's would

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Speaker 1: say the biggest problem he has in his life. I said, Mark,

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Speaker 1: you know, everything seems to work perfectly for you. What

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Speaker 1: the problems do you have in like? He said, Well,

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Speaker 1: I have a teenage daughter, and managing a teenage daughter

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Speaker 1: is more problem than anything else I've ever had. That

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Speaker 1: would be That would be true as well, Um, you

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Speaker 1: know the time for surveillance correction, folks. I did mention

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Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh affiliation of Mr Cuban, but Lucas from Bloomington

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Speaker 1: emails in and says, hey, stupid. He went to Indiana

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Speaker 1: University at Lisa pick it up from there from he's

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Speaker 1: from Pittsburgh. He grew up in Pittsburgh, but Indiana University

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Speaker 1: had a business school which we could afford. He didn't

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Speaker 1: have any money, and so he's from a Jewish family.

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Speaker 1: His name was changed, like somewhere in Ellis Island. Uh

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Speaker 1: and Uh. He went to Indiana, made a fair amount

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Speaker 1: of money as a bartender and so forth, then moved

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Speaker 1: to Dallas because the weather was good. He said that

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Speaker 1: women were beautiful and he wanted to just have a

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Speaker 1: nice lifestyle and there were some jobs there. But he

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Speaker 1: started a number of businesses and he's done quite well

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Speaker 1: over over many years at time. Almost everything he's touch

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Speaker 1: has worked out well. Yeah, And when he was talking

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Speaker 1: about the NBA, he was saying he would welcome a

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Speaker 1: Jewish player, frankly, any player, uh, even from Mars if

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Speaker 1: they could win. I am wondering, David, talking about all

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Speaker 1: of that money that Mark Cuban has, what's he buying? Well, Interestingly,

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Speaker 1: he's been a long term owner of Netflix shares and

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Speaker 1: Amazon shares, and he would say a large point of

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Speaker 1: his net worth is actually the money he's invested in

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Speaker 1: those companies. He has been in the past a stock trader,

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Speaker 1: and he knows a lot about tech stocks. But he says,

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Speaker 1: right now, there aren't that many tech stocks to buy,

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Speaker 1: so just load up on the really good ones and

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Speaker 1: go for a right David, this is really important. I

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Speaker 1: want to rip up the script here. I just think

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Speaker 1: it's so so important, David. You mentioned something really important,

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Speaker 1: and the guys are entrepreneurial, and maybe they're like Carlyle

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Speaker 1: with private equity, but so much of the wealth construction

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Speaker 1: of these people, including Mr Buffett's very successful Apple investment,

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Speaker 1: is making conventional share investments. Do we underestimate that in

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Speaker 1: the media, that they just make sound, conventional, traditional share investments. Well,

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Speaker 1: the tradition has been generally that if you make private investments,

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Speaker 1: you can add value to them and ultimately the return

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Speaker 1: will be greater, and the return has been good in

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Speaker 1: the private equity world. However, if you bought Amazon, Netflix, Apple,

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Speaker 1: uh those kind of companies five years ago, three years ago,

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Speaker 1: two years ago, six months ago, you would have done

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Speaker 1: spectacularly well. If you take those companies out of the

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Speaker 1: stock market indexes, the indexes aren't doing quite as well

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Speaker 1: that those companies have just driven everything. And it's just

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Speaker 1: my big mistake that I sold after the I p

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Speaker 1: o my shares in UH in Amazon, well within that

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Speaker 1: and that's okay, David, I was in triple loverage Dog Cash,

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Speaker 1: so you know, let's how well I did, David, What

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Speaker 1: are the opportunities right now with all this cash sitting around,

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Speaker 1: it's almost two good the trillions of dollars of cash

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Speaker 1: on the sidelines. Well, it depends on what you are

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Speaker 1: interested in. If you're in public shares. I do think

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Speaker 1: the public shares are pretty high right now, so I

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Speaker 1: would be a little leery um. And I do think

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Speaker 1: that after the election, whoever wins, you'll probably see some

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Speaker 1: softening of the market, because I think the federal government

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Speaker 1: will probably not be able to put that much money

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Speaker 1: back into the economy compared to what it's already done

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Speaker 1: in the private sector. In the private equity world, I

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Speaker 1: do think there's some opportunities, but nothing is cheap today.

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Speaker 1: It used to be you would buy a company in

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Speaker 1: a private setting for eight or nine times cash flow.

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Speaker 1: Today they're fourteen or fifteen times cash flow, and you

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Speaker 1: just have to either accept it or you're not gonna

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Speaker 1: be buying anything. David Rubinstein, thank you so much. Really

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Speaker 1: looking forward to Erk Cuban, a peer to peer conversation

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Speaker 1: with Mr Libenstein. Thanks for listening to The Bloomberg's Vannlain's podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio