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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Blueberg Day Bake You're podcast Goot morning.

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Speaker 3: It's Monday, the thirtieth of Marchime calin Hekka in London.

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Speaker 3: Coming up today, President Trump talks up both escalation and

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Speaker 3: peace talks with Iran as more US troops arrive in

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Speaker 3: the Middle East. Oil executives warn Europe will be facing

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Speaker 3: supply shortages within weeks if hor Moves isn't reopened. And

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Speaker 3: are the kids all right? Why young people are struggling

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Speaker 3: to get a job in London. Let's start with a

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Speaker 3: roundup of our top stories. The US president claims he

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Speaker 3: has won concessions in negotiations with Iran, while also saying

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Speaker 3: that he wants to seize the country's oil, but it's

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Speaker 3: unclear if either side is negotiating. Donald Trump told reporters

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Speaker 3: on Air Force One overnight that Iran gave the US

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Speaker 3: most of what it wanted.

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Speaker 4: We will probably, I think we'll make a deal with them.

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Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure why it's possible.

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Speaker 3: Remote Hran has publicly rejected the US president's fifteen point

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Speaker 3: list of demands and denies that the two sides are

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Speaker 3: in direct contact. Hours before President Trump told the FT

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Speaker 3: he wanted to seize Iran's oil resources, which would require

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Speaker 3: a ground invasion of the country's export hub of Hag Island.

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Speaker 3: The mixed messages are making it hard for other countries

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Speaker 3: and the markets to gauge if the US is aiming

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Speaker 3: to escalate or de escalate the conflict in the Middle East.

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Speaker 3: The arrival of a US amphibious assault group and an

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Speaker 3: attack by Hoothy forces are up in fears of escalation.

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Speaker 3: As the war enters its fifth week, three five hundred

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Speaker 3: American soldiers arrived in the region on board the USS Tripoli,

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Speaker 3: as The Washington Post reports that America is preparing for

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Speaker 3: potentially weeks of ground operations in Iran. The troop build

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Speaker 3: up comes as Pakistan's Foreign Minister ishak Dar is attempting

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Speaker 3: to mediate between the US and Iran.

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Speaker 6: Pakistan is very happy that both Iran and the US

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Speaker 6: have expressed their confidence in Pakistan to facilitate the talks.

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Speaker 6: Pakistan will be honored to host and facilitate meaningful talks

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Speaker 6: between the two sides in coming days for a comprehensive

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Speaker 6: and lasting settlement of the ongoing conflict.

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Speaker 3: Ishak Dia is hosting his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Turkey

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Speaker 3: and Egypt in Islamabad for talks on de escalation today,

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Speaker 3: but continuous missile strikes prompted Iran backed Hoo the militant

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Speaker 3: in Yemen, to fire at Israel over the weekend, a

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Speaker 3: first in recent weeks. Tehran has also struck aluminium producers

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Speaker 3: in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, along with a

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Speaker 3: US base in Saudi Arabia and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanier,

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Speaker 3: who says he's expanding his attacks on Hezbola.

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Speaker 5: Anaju loves.

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Speaker 7: We are in the midst of an operation consisting of

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Speaker 7: multiple fronts. We are hitting around and its proxies with

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Speaker 7: immense power. I have just instructed to further wider the

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Speaker 7: existing buffer zone in Lebanon in order dismantle once and

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Speaker 7: for all the threat of invasion.

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Speaker 3: Benjamin Nettnier, who's speaking there via a translator. The war

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Speaker 3: has left more than four thy five hundred people dead,

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Speaker 3: according to governments and non governmental agencies, with the vast

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Speaker 3: majority of casualties being inside Iran and Lebanon. Now, oil

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Speaker 3: has gained as the Iran war has escalated. Amid those

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Speaker 3: hoothy attacks on Israel. The Iran backed Houthi militants in

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Speaker 3: Yemen entered the Middle East War over the weekend, raising

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Speaker 3: fears of further chaos in energy markets. Jim McCormick is

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Speaker 3: head of macro Stratech City Bank. He says the conflict

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Speaker 3: has significantly impacted the market outlook.

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Speaker 4: We already had some upside inflation risks from commodity prices,

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Speaker 4: we said, some upside inflation risks from tariffs, and now

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Speaker 4: you overlay this and suddenly we're taught we're looking at

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Speaker 4: a world where core inflation, the G ten having flatlined

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Speaker 4: at three, could be significantly higher in the coming months.

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Speaker 4: So I do think this is a mark the moment

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Speaker 4: for what's been a six to seven year change in inflation.

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Speaker 3: City Banks Sir Jim McCormick speaking there earlier this morning,

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Speaker 3: as Brent crew currently trades just below one hundred and

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Speaker 3: sixteen dollars per bowel. Now. His remarks come as stocks

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Speaker 3: have extended their sell off in early Asia trading. A

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Speaker 3: gauge of Asian shares fell by one point nine percent

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Speaker 3: to its lowest this year, as concern about higher crude

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Speaker 3: prices is weighing.

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Speaker 2: Will weigh on economic growth.

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Speaker 3: Brent crew also has surged about sixty percent so far

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Speaker 3: in March alone and is currently trading as high as

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Speaker 3: one hundred and sixteen dollars a barret as the war

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Speaker 3: has upended global markets and triggered concern about a simultaneous

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Speaker 3: spike in inflation and slow down in growth. In the UK,

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Speaker 3: Chance of Rachel Reeves is expected to urge a group

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Speaker 3: of Seven partners to boost their domestic energy supplies and

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Speaker 3: cut dependents on fossil fuels. On a call to day

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Speaker 3: with G seven ministers and central bankers, she will warn

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Speaker 3: that recent surges in oil and gas prices play into

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Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin's hands. Speaking over the weekend, the UK's Education Secretary,

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Speaker 3: Bridget Phillipson said that motorists should carry on as normal

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Speaker 3: despite concerns over fuel shortages.

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Speaker 1: The trade bodies, the RAC the EAR have been absolutely

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Speaker 1: clear that if you go into the pump, just fillip

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Speaker 1: as normal, continue as you are. We've got that security

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Speaker 1: of what is coming in and production isn't affected, and

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Speaker 1: I think think people should take note of what those

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Speaker 1: trade bodies are saying. Of course, governments will always plan

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Speaker 1: for what we need to do to make sure in

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Speaker 1: the event of any disruption, we are well.

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Speaker 3: Prepared, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson. There the Bank of England

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Speaker 3: expects higher motor fuel costs to drive inflation up to

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Speaker 3: three and a half percent in March. Traders are betting

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Speaker 3: on two and a half interest rate hikes by the

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Speaker 3: end of this year in the UK from the Bank

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Speaker 3: of England. Some of Wall Street's biggest bond managers say

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Speaker 3: that markets are underestimating the economic impact of the Iran War.

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Speaker 3: The inflation shock from elevated oil prices has so far

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Speaker 3: pushed the US treasury market towards the deepest monthly loss

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Speaker 3: since October twenty twenty four. B makes Freddie Fulston.

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Speaker 2: Has more money.

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Speaker 8: Managers at JP Morgan Pinco and Columbia thread Needle are

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Speaker 8: preparing for a sharp slowdown in an already spluttering economy.

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Speaker 8: They warn it could ultimately trigger a bond market rebound

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Speaker 8: and bring yields sliding back down. The war has economists

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Speaker 8: cutting their growth forecasts and nudging up the odds of

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Speaker 8: a recession. Goldman Sachs as the probability of a downturn

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Speaker 8: over the next twelve months has risen to about thirty

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Speaker 8: percent in London, freddie Fulston, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: And lastly, French authorities have detained two more suspects in

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Speaker 3: connection with a foiled bombing near Bank of America's Paris office.

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Speaker 3: Officials have said that the incident, which took place over

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Speaker 3: the weekend, is likely linked to the conflict in the

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Speaker 3: Middle East, according to the Anti Terrors and Prosecutor's Office.

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Speaker 3: The arrests follow the detention on Saturday of an initial suspect,

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Speaker 3: a minor, who remains in custody. France's Interior Minister Lauren

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Speaker 3: Nunaiz said Paris police saw two individuals place the bomb

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Speaker 3: in front of the bank's offices in the eighth Arrondis

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Speaker 3: Smart in the early hours of Saturday morning. Those are

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Speaker 3: our top stories for you today. Now, looking at the markets,

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Speaker 3: as I mentioned, Bran CREWD prices currently trading at one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifteen dollars seventeen, so up by two point

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Speaker 3: three percent, just below one hundred and sixteen dollars about

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Speaker 3: We did see an earlier spite higher of even as

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Speaker 3: much as four percent, but that has calmed somewhat. The

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Speaker 3: Macias PACIFICY index is down one point two percent the

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Speaker 3: Nike dropping three point one percent and the cost be

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Speaker 3: down almost three percent.

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Speaker 2: Today.

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Speaker 3: We saw European stocks tumble on Friday one percent, and

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Speaker 3: sort futures for European markets also down six tenths of

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Speaker 3: one percent.

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Speaker 2: You have had, of.

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Speaker 3: Course, yields across Europe rising, but this morning ten y

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Speaker 3: US treasury yields are down for basis points at four

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Speaker 3: thirty nine. Those are the markets. So Nomemer, We're going

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Speaker 3: to get the latest on what's happening in the Middle East.

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Speaker 3: But I just thought that I would mention one of

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Speaker 3: the other storys that caught my eye this morning. Opinion

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Speaker 3: columnist Max Hastings, who's written books about many wars, Vietnam,

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Speaker 3: the Cuban Missile crisis, and the World Wars, of course,

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Speaker 3: writing that America is depleting a bigger weapon than missiles,

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Speaker 3: saying that that is belief, belief in the truth of

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Speaker 3: what the leader of the US tells the world about

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Speaker 3: war and peace. Hastings looking at past wars, saying that

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Speaker 3: throughout history governments have sometimes lied, especially during wars, but

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Speaker 3: that it is worth a lot that our side, as

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Speaker 3: Max calls it, you know, whatever side that may be,

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Speaker 3: should be more credible than the enemy, and he uses

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Speaker 3: a series of examples, and he's saying that really it's

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Speaker 3: sort of unprecedented. Today President Trump is assaulting the organs

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Speaker 3: of truth, as he puts it, with obvious lies and

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Speaker 3: saying that America is no longer seen, especially in Europe,

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Speaker 3: as worthy of trust. You can read Max Hastings's latest

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Speaker 3: opinion column on the Bloomberg Terminal and on our website.

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Speaker 3: I think worth reading today. Now, let's think about what's

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Speaker 3: happening in the war, because you've got stocks and investors

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Speaker 3: deeply concerned. There's a sell off for happening today. Oil

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Speaker 3: prices rising as I ran back too thy forces have

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Speaker 3: entered the Middle East conf and there is really no

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Speaker 3: certainty about what these negotiations between the US and Iran

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Speaker 3: actually are. Let's bring in our Middle East Boking News

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Speaker 3: editor Dana Creage.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Donna. I want to start firstly on the battlefield.

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Speaker 3: Are US and Israeli strikes actually decisively degrading Iran's capabilities?

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Speaker 3: Iranian strikes are widening. We now have the hoofis entering

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Speaker 3: the war. The battlefield is getting murkier and even more dangerous.

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Speaker 9: Exactly, but there's also an information blackout out of Iran. Right,

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Speaker 9: they do have control over this information that's coming out

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Speaker 9: of state run media and their outlets, and what we

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Speaker 9: and the assessment is pretty much what these outlets tell us,

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Speaker 9: whether the US and Israel are saying, and the source

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Speaker 9: based reports from of course US media, mostly from Tanagon officials.

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Speaker 9: So Israel and the US are hitting not just military infrastructure,

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Speaker 9: but also what we saw during the weekend, Nuclear Right

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Speaker 9: heavy water plant and a rack on Friday was hit

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Speaker 9: by Israeli strikes and the heavy water production plant Rondab

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Speaker 9: and actually another facility located in yezd which Israel says

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Speaker 9: produces explosive materials required for uranium enrichment. So there is

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Speaker 9: damage and the US strikes are inflicting damage on Ron Right,

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Speaker 9: and we are seeing at the same time around continuing attacks,

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Speaker 9: especially this weekend where we saw a hit on a

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Speaker 9: Kuwaiti airport damaging their radar system while you know, let's

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Speaker 9: remind everyone that the airspace in Kuwait is closed. And

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Speaker 9: they also damage one of the region's largest aluminum producers

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Speaker 9: in the UAE, and this is the largest company in

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Speaker 9: an industry outside of oil and gas for the UEE.

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Speaker 9: And also in Bahden with Alba. And now, of course

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Speaker 9: the Hothies have entered the war, as you were mentioning,

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Speaker 9: so there are more attacks.

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Speaker 5: Directed at Israel.

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Speaker 9: We saw two from the Hothis and they said they

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Speaker 9: would continue the attacks until aggression against what they call

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Speaker 9: resistance fronts, and we know that means Iran and that

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Speaker 9: means has Blat and Lebanon. But it is interesting that

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Speaker 9: they stopped short of saying they would block about Almenda

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Speaker 9: or the Red Sea as they had done before. And

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Speaker 9: also although the fear is that this might escalate and

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Speaker 9: they might do something to the shipping sports.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, this is the concern about the Huthis, which

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Speaker 3: you know has been obviously a concern and a source

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Speaker 3: of conflict in the past as well, that they might

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Speaker 3: block that route that Saudi Arabia has been using to

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Speaker 3: get some of its oil out. In terms of so

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Speaker 3: the aerial bombardment sort of worsting or there present, are

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Speaker 3: we drifting those towards a ground war and also what

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Speaker 3: would that actually look like.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, we saw President Trump telling the ft that he

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Speaker 9: wants to take the oil in Iran when he was

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Speaker 9: talking about ground operation, but also saying after that that

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Speaker 9: he is ready for a deal, and he's regularly said,

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Speaker 9: you know, we have progress in these negotiations. It is

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Speaker 9: hard to tell whether the US deployment and we saw

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Speaker 9: one of the troop deployments coming into the region. It's

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Speaker 9: hard to tell whether this is a pressure tactic or

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Speaker 9: a real intention plan to.

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Speaker 2: Actually go into Iran.

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Speaker 9: And the objective of that was spelled out by him

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Speaker 9: by himself and this published interview taking Iran's oil, and

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Speaker 9: that would suggest he is eyeing, of course, going after

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Speaker 9: Hutg Island.

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Speaker 5: While it does not have oil fields, it is the

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Speaker 5: oil exporting hub of Iran.

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Speaker 9: There were other suggestions, like suggestions last week that the

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Speaker 9: US could also try and locate the enriched uranium right

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Speaker 9: of which the location has been unknown ever since last

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Speaker 9: year and the US strikes on the nuclear facilities, and

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Speaker 9: Iran threatened itself, threatened a ground operation of its own

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Speaker 9: and saying if we see US soldiers on our territories,

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Speaker 9: then we're going to, you know, have our own ground

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Speaker 9: operation Vede Baten or the UEE. But seizing Iranian oil

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Speaker 9: and what that would do to oil prices is also

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Speaker 9: a question mark here, right, how would the market perceive

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Speaker 9: this and that is also key for what's coming ahead

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Speaker 9: for the oil market.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I suppose also off to Venezuelu as well. Look,

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Speaker 3: speaking of that energy shock, it is getting more serious

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Speaker 3: for the world. How much your countries holding and rationing, right.

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Speaker 2: It is definitely getting serious.

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Speaker 9: I mean Brent crew today is searched about three point

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Speaker 9: seven percent and is now trading at one hundred and

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Speaker 9: sixteen dollars a barrow. And many experts are saying this

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Speaker 9: could evolve into an even worse shock. Right, we are

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Speaker 9: saying this is the worst in history, and there are

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Speaker 9: experts war saing warning of an even worse shock if

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Speaker 9: the war goes on further. And we saw countries like

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Speaker 9: Australia saying they will have its fuel excise for three

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Speaker 9: months from Wednesday. Prices soared to our bracket last week

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Speaker 9: and the temporary cut would reduce the price of petrol

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Speaker 9: and diesel by about twenty six Australian cents, which is

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Speaker 9: about eighteen cents dollar wise per leader. And we saw

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Speaker 9: Vietnamese airlines are also saying that they will significantly reduce

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Speaker 9: flights and scale back operations from April. And I'm sure

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Speaker 9: we're going to be seeing more such moves as the

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Speaker 9: ground operation materializes, if it does, and because that will

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Speaker 9: definitely complicate the war even further. And of course we

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Speaker 9: are still waiting for this coalition that some countries said

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Speaker 9: that they would engage with to reopen the Strait of Homers,

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Speaker 9: but as it is now that ground operation will only

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Speaker 9: complicate matters worse, and we are going to see countries

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Speaker 9: take more steps into what you said, rationing or hoarding.

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Speaker 3: Well, of course, yeah, absolutely, Donna, thank you so much

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Speaker 3: for being with us today and feel comprehensive reporting.

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Speaker 2: Much appreciated that it's done.

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Speaker 3: A christ Bluebird's Middle East Breaking News editor, thank you,

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Speaker 3: stay with us. More from Bloomberg Day BAQUB coming up

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Speaker 3: after this now to eate development in London. The number

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Speaker 3: of graduates in the capital getting jobs or graduate jobs

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Speaker 3: in the capital has fallen in a city that was

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Speaker 3: once a global hub for entry level positions. It threatens

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Speaker 3: to blight the future of thousands of young people and

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Speaker 3: fuel a backlash potentially against the Starmer government. Joining me

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Speaker 3: now is Bloomberg's UK Economy reporter Arena and girl, good

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Speaker 3: morning Arena. You've been writing in nep about this sort

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Speaker 3: of disappearance, the vanishing of graduate jobs. How hard is

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Speaker 3: it to find work now? And why has it become

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Speaker 3: so hard?

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Speaker 5: Caroline? So demoralizing, disheartening, a trap.

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Speaker 10: This is how young graduates I interviewed described job hunting

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Speaker 10: in London.

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Speaker 5: To me, it is no wonder because the number of

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Speaker 5: graduate jobs, as.

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Speaker 10: You said, has vanished effectively in the capital. We only

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Speaker 10: have just over two thousand graduate vacancies in the whole

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Speaker 10: of London at the start of the year, and you know,

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Speaker 10: for comparison that it was about thirteen thousand before COVID.

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Speaker 5: And it's a number of things going on here.

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Speaker 10: You have higher employment taxes, slow growth and artificial intelligence

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Speaker 10: making it harder to find that first job, whether it's

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Speaker 10: a graduate scheme or a retail job. You know, the

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Speaker 10: composition of London's jobs market leaves it vulnerable to AI.

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Speaker 5: Around the third of.

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Speaker 10: London workers are employed in highly exposed AI sectors like

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Speaker 10: professional services, and that's more than the UK average. And

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Speaker 10: then you also have shops and restaurants which are heavily

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Speaker 10: concentrated in the capital as well, hiring fewer junior staff.

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Speaker 10: After you know Rachel Reeves's increases in the national insurance

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Speaker 10: contributions and also higher minimum wages which so particularly big

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Speaker 10: increases for young workers.

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Speaker 3: So then you see this also is a major political

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Speaker 3: issue for the May local elections.

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Speaker 10: Why definitely it is one of those issues youth unemployment

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Speaker 10: that matters to voters across generations. So you know it's

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Speaker 10: not just the fresh graduate looking for a job, but

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Speaker 10: also their parents who are affected. So families struggling to

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Speaker 10: make ends meet now may find themselves providing for adult

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Speaker 10: children for longer.

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Speaker 5: And the stakes couldn't be higher for labor.

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Speaker 10: Than in London, where it currently controls twenty one councils.

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Speaker 10: More traditionally pro labor voters are we see drifting towards

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Speaker 10: the political fringes we have you know, Zack Polanski's Green

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Speaker 10: Party on the left and then Nigel fars Reform UK

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Speaker 10: on the right making big games.

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Speaker 5: And it is striking that you know, London, you know,

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Speaker 5: once the global global hub for first jobs, you know

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Speaker 5: magnet for.

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Speaker 10: Young graduates, has become the epicenter of youth unemployment in

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Speaker 10: the UK, you know one and for sixteen to twenty

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Speaker 10: four year olds and the Capital are looking for work

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Speaker 10: and that's the highest proportion in the UK, and there's

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Speaker 10: also the sense that young people in London have it

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Speaker 10: harder than another European capitals, So you know, young people

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Speaker 10: in Madrid or Paris are actually faring better than the

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Speaker 10: average there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's interesting.

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Speaker 3: That's quite novel really in terms of the UK, well,

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Speaker 3: what is the government doing to try to address this?

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Speaker 3: You know, million people who are not in employment, education

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Speaker 3: or training something you know that is well known in

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Speaker 3: the UK by the acronym needs.

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Speaker 10: So Labor is now offering employers, you know, thousands of

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Speaker 10: pounds to take on young people. In this effort to

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Speaker 10: reduce the nearly one million are who are needs. The

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Speaker 10: government has also expanded its program guaranteeing a job for

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Speaker 10: eighteen to twenty one year olds who have been unemployed

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Speaker 10: for eighteen months to include those up to age twenty four. However,

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Speaker 10: the problem is is that you know, the Middle East

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Speaker 10: conflict is now threatening to worsen the jobs crisis, so

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Speaker 10: it seems, you know, it remains to be seen what

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Speaker 10: the net effect of world changes is.

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Speaker 11: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 11: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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