WEBVTT - What Keeps Former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan Up at Night 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:09.280 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. One of the most 0:00:09.360 --> 0:00:13.000 difficult and demanding jobs in any White House is that 0:00:13.119 --> 0:00:16.439 of National Security Advisor. It comes with a long list 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:20.279 of responsibilities. You're a counselor to the president and someone 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:24.680 who coordinates with policymakers and intelligence officials and governments all 0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:27.360 over the world. It's as close to a twenty four 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:29.720 to seven job as you can find, and it's one 0:00:29.720 --> 0:00:34.440 that's been held by Condelliza Rice, Henry Kissinger and Jake Sullivan. 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:36.720 You know one thing I've learned over four years is 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:41.760 national Security advisor is that the most persistent question that 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:45.680 one faces in a job like that is okay, then what? 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:50.040 There is no downtime. You're always thinking about what will 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:54.000 happen next. During Sullivan's tenure, war erupted in the Middle 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:58.080 East and the conflict escalated in Ukraine. There was chaos 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:02.080 as the US withdrew his forces from Afghanistan. Since January, 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:04.880 Sullivan has had a chance to gather his thoughts and 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:08.640 to catch his breath. He's fielded questions about decisions he made, 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:11.480 and in interviews like this one on the Rockman Review 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.800 podcast from The Financial Times, He's been asked about the 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:18.720 president he worked for and that presidential debate in June 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:22.400 of twenty twenty four, which led to Joe Biden stepping aside. 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:26.560 So the debate, I mean it was bad. Did it 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:28.480 come as a shock too, Yeah, it came as a 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:31.680 shock to everybody. I mean it was shocking, and it 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:35.920 was shocking to me. I thought it was something I 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:39.600 had not seen before that kind of How did its response. 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:45.520 I don't have a good explanation. I mean, I think 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:50.440 some part of it has to be the stakes of 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:54.760 that performance, and you know how people get in their 0:01:54.800 --> 0:01:58.280 own heads, but that's just armchair. Yeah, you know, I 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:03.520 don't know. I watched that and I thought that is 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:05.800 something I have not seen from Joe Biden before, nor 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:06.559 had other people. 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:10.160 In an interview at the Aspen Security for Him, Jake 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:13.360 Sullivan and I talked about regrets he has and about 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:17.239 his time in the Biden white House. Sullivan also shared 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:21.119 his perspective on today's foreign policy and national security challenges, 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:24.320 which he is now watching play out from the sidelines 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.720 as a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. And on 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:30.919 that note, before we talked policy, I asked him something 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:33.960 i'd wondered about what happens when you leave a job 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:38.000 that is so all consuming, like national security advisor, what 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:40.359 happens when you're done well? 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:42.840 In the most immediate sense, I had a security detail, 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:45.480 big secret service detail. They were with me twenty four 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:49.200 to seven, and at twelve noon on January twentieth of 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:52.680 this year, they dropped me off at a bar and 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:56.360 walked away, I mean shook my hand and I said 0:02:56.360 --> 0:02:57.800 thank you to them, and then they walked away and 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:01.200 I went to the bar and joined friend and hadn't 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:04.960 early drink. That's the short answer. The longer answer that 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:09.440 it's obviously a huge shift from the point of view 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:14.720 of adrenaline stress intensity, and it takes them getting used to. 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:19.639 I'm David Gera and this is the big tape from 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:23.160 Bloomberg News Today. On the show, my conversation with former 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:30.919 National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. At a time when there 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:34.360 is so much conflict around the world, when long standing 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.920 alliances are under strain and President Trump is waging a 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:41.600 trade war, I asked former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:45.720 what concerns he has about the US national security apparatus 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:46.760 he helped oversee. 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:50.080 I would say I have two major concerns. One of 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:54.440 them is immediate to some of the decisions taken by 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:56.560 this administration in the last few months, one of which 0:03:56.600 --> 0:03:59.920 is more long standing. The immediate one is that I 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:04.000 I really do believe there has been an basically all 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:11.560 out assault on the professionalism the patriotism of incredible public 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:15.400 servants at multiple different agencies. And I think DOGE drove 0:04:15.400 --> 0:04:18.839 a lot of that, but it's continued beyond DOGE, attacking 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:21.880 people who gave their career at USAIDE or the State 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:25.719 Department or other federal agencies. And I think this is 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:29.640 something deeply corrosive. It is going to reduce the extent 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:31.760 to which people are inspired to get into public service, 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:34.000 and I think that will come at both an immediate 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:36.240 cost to us because of all the talent capacity we've 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:40.760 lost and all the institutional memory and know how we've lost, 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:42.800 but I think it will come as a longer term 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:46.400 challenge as well. And then the more long standing thing 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:51.000 is that I fundamentally agree with the critique that says 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:55.600 we cannot move fast enough, big enough when it comes 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:58.480 to solving some of the key challenges that we face. 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:03.640 Fixing our defense industrial base, solving our reliance on rare 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.960 earth minerals from China, other things like that. Where do 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:10.080 I feel we've made progress in the Biden administration, Absolutely 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:12.560 more than we'd seen before. Do I feel we solve 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:15.760 the problem? No, these are generational problems, but we don't 0:05:15.800 --> 0:05:17.640 have a generation to solve them. We got to solve 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:18.600 them much more rapidly. 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:21.040 Let me take those in kind and start with your 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:23.920 first concern, and that is the level of expertise that's 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:28.039 left government. Has it trickled down from Washington to the 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:30.160 rest of this country? Do they see the damage that 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:31.600 you say has been done? 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:34.599 You know, I think it's really hard to ask somebody 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:38.760 who is working a job, taking care of their family, 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:42.719 thinking about their aging parents, trying to make ends meet, 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:45.760 to care deeply about a reduction in force at the 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:48.760 State Department. And I would never profess to do that. 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:52.760 But I do believe that there are going to be practical, 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:58.680 real world manifestations of the hollowing out of government capacity. 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:02.640 And you know, I think we'll see those when crisis hits. 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:06.279 I think we'll see those when it comes to people 0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:10.359 being able to rely on government to deliver the services 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:13.400 that are required. And then I also think that there's 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:16.760 something else going on here which isn't quite so transactional. 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:19.480 Am I getting exactly what I want from government? That's 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:22.159 a little bit more about a sense of pride and 0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:24.960 purpose in our country. If you run down and denigrate 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:29.440 public servants constantly, you say they're you know, in it 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:33.600 for the wrong reasons, they're criminals in certain cases. I 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:38.440 think you undermine a basic sense of cohesion and common 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:41.120 purpose in our country that I think has all kinds 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:44.279 of lingering effects that aren't about a particular agency not 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.920 having a particular level of expertise. It's that more ineffable 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:55.080 quality that I think is eroding, the kind of deep 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:59.599 sense of American can do and the sense that you 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:03.720 know or out for a larger purpose that really will 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:04.280 leave a mark. 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:07.000 I think a lot of people saw the videos from 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:09.560 a few days ago of career employees leaving the State 0:07:09.600 --> 0:07:12.680 Department for the last time to the applause of their colleagues. 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:15.000 When you look at the cuts that have been made 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:18.040 both to funding and to staff, are you optimistic that 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:21.920 that can be reversed in a future administration or is 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:22.880 the damage going to be wherever? 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:25.560 Look, you can rebuild these muscles, but it takes longer 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:27.680 to rebuild them than it takes to destroy them. And 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:29.960 that's true in our lives, like if you lay off 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.320 exercising for a while, it just takes you that much 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:34.800 longer to get back in shape, and I think that's 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:36.760 going to be true with government as well. And I 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:39.520 want to be clear, I'm not arguing there is no 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:45.480 scope for streamlining or personnel reform or programmatic reform or 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.520 budget savings. I'm not arguing that at all. What I'm 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:51.840 arguing is something more fundamental, which is the method by 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:55.560 which this has been approached has been, in my view, 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:59.720 basically to borrow a tailor swift line. It's been casually 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:02.920 cruel in the name of being honest. They say, oh, 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:05.640 we're just doing what's right, and we're telling it like 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:09.000 it is. No, there's a cruelty to this that I 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:12.880 think is totally unnecessary, and I think it also means 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:19.120 it's not rigorous, targeted, focused on genuine reform, genuine streamlining. 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:23.640 It's using a bludgeon a sledgehammer, where I believe that 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:26.520 much more precise tools are required to improve the function 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:27.040 of government. 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:30.040 Let's talk about a few hotspots and you spend a 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:32.040 lot of time shuttling back and forth between Washington and 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.880 the Middle East, certainly after October seventh, and I'm curious 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.960 how reconfigured the Middle East is today than before that 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:42.400 attack that Hamas launched. How different does the Middle East 0:08:42.400 --> 0:08:43.160 look today than it did? 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:49.440 It's considerably different, So first when we left office, and 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:51.959 even more so now, Iran is at its weakest point 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:57.000 since nineteen seventy nine. It's lost its main proxies, it's 0:08:57.080 --> 0:09:01.280 lost its main client stat a SAD, lost its conventional 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:05.440 military deterrent, and now its nuclear program has been set 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:08.320 back but not completely eliminated, and we are going to 0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:10.240 have to continue to solve for that. So that remains 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:12.439 a constant, the need for a deal to solve a 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:17.120 Iran's nuclear program. Then you look at the possibilities that 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:20.440 exist in both Lebanon and Syria, but their attendant with 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:23.600 really significant risks as well. And so to me, the 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:28.520 most important thing that can happen at this point is 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:30.760 to get an end to the war in Gaza and 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:33.160 then to get a credible pathway to a Palestinian state, 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:36.480 because without a credible pathway to a pals Danian state, 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:39.959 I do not see a future for normalization between Israel 0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:42.920 and Saudi Arabia and other of its Arab neighbors. And 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:46.240 I do not see a way of building on the 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:48.959 promise of a new Middle East. I think we may 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:53.120 just get into further cycles of instability and challenge. And 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:55.040 what we've seen, for example, just in the last few 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:58.560 days in Syria is a reminder that this is not 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:01.720 just going to be some smooth pathway to a better 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:03.920 future for Syria or for other countries. It's going to 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:08.359 require hard decisions, and it's going to require connecting military 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:12.240 actions today to a strategic endgame tomorrow that is sustainable 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:14.440 and just. And so far I haven't seen from this 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:16.920 Israeli government a willingness to do that to. 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:20.240 Israel has attacked Syria in recent days. Do you share 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:22.959 this administration's optimism about the path forward for Syria. 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:27.679 I believe that it is right to give this new 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:31.400 government in Syria a chance, And in fact, the Asad 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:33.880 regime fell in the closing weeks of the Biden administration, 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.520 and almost immediately we sent a senior official to go 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:38.840 meet with El Shara and the new leader of Syria. 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:42.480 We began the process of lifting some sanctions, and we 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:45.040 set a pathway which then President Trump took a huge 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:47.720 step forward on a quite significant step in basically saying 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.040 We're going to normalize relations and lift all the sanctions. 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:52.160 And I applauded that at the time, and I think 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:54.200 that that is the right thing. Does that mean I 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:58.920 share optimism as an irishman, I'm going to reserve anything 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:01.960 remotely resentling optimism here. What I would say is, there 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:05.200 is an opportunity, and we should do our best to 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:08.840 test and pursue that opportunity. But we also should be 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:12.480 strong in pushing back against actions, including actions by Israel, 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:15.520 that could potentially take this fragile opportunity and make it 0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:17.280 more difficult to consummate. 0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:19.960 The last time you spoke with Bloomberg was in January, 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:22.920 and you said, of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:25.400 there could be a deal maybe in a matter of weeks. 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:29.360 Here we are many months since then. What's it going 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:30.920 to take to get one, as you see it? 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:33.280 Well, first of all, there was a deal within a 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:36.199 matter of weeks after I made that comment. There was 0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:38.760 a deal consummated in the closing days of the Biden administration. 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:44.200 It was a ceasefire. The ceasefire consisted of six weeks 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:47.680 of an end to all of the military action on 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:51.760 both sides, the return of many hostages, and a surge 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:56.560 in humanitarian assistants. And it also included a key provision 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:59.400 that said, during those six weeks, Israel and Hamas should 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:03.000 begin a series negotiation through third parties to turn that 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:07.120 temporary ceasefire into a permanent ceasefire. That's what we handed 0:12:07.120 --> 0:12:09.400 off to the Trump administration. That's what they inherited on 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.840 day one, a ceasefire in place for six weeks, with 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.680 a provision not only that they should use the six 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:18.960 weeks to turn it into a permanent ceasefire, but also 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:22.000 that the six weeks could be extended indefinitely if they 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:26.560 were making progress. After forty two days, instead of working 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:30.120 diligently towards a permanent ceasefire, Israel went back to the conflict. 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:33.439 And so here we sit today in July, after many 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:38.280 more months, and the answer is quite straightforward, which it 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:40.640 is time to bring an end to this war, to 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:44.600 bring the hostages home, to get humanitarian assistance in and 0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:49.040 to work towards a two state solution. And I believe 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:51.679 that the Trump administration, having taken the action, they took in. 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:56.360 Iran should use all of their capacity and clout to 0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.480 try to bring that about. But my hope is, and 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:01.560 I can't say it's my expectation because I don't know 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:03.240 what will happen, But my hope is that in the 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:05.760 coming period a ceasefire will get in place and it 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:06.320 will stick. 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:11.200 How did you navigate the thorniness of Israeli domestic politics 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.200 during all the negotiations that you were party too and 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:16.840 trying to encourage. So we've seen this very comprehensive piece 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.280 in the New York Times laying out the timetable from 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:22.040 October seventh to a day when there were deals on 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.440 the table, when they weren't, when they were scuttled. And 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:27.839 an overarching theme of that is that Prime Minister Ntya, 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:31.839 who's domestic concerns play the sizeable role in how all 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:34.199 of this has evolved. Is it going to continue to 0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:35.880 play that bigger role going forward? Do you think? Well? 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:38.120 It has over the course of the past several months. 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:41.320 It had did under President Biden, it has under President Trump. 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:44.760 That's a fixed variable. Prime Minister Ntya, who is going 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:49.600 to focus on his political position, That's what he's done, 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:51.800 That's what we will continue to do. But I think 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:55.200 I have to say that even though I never found 0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:58.760 prime Minister in Nyah who particularly the enthusiastic about doing 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:03.000 a deal, was not enthusiastic about doing a deal either, 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.480 And there were many months where Israel had actually said 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:10.440 yes to a basic framework where Hamas really didn't want 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:12.880 to negotiate seriously. Now, do I think that that means 0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:14.920 it's all Hamas's fault and not the prime minister's And 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.280 that's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is you had, 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:18.880 on the one hand, a prime minister who was not 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:22.800 particularly keen on closing a deal. But on the other hand, 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:25.720 you really didn't have a party in Hamas that was 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:27.920 serious about closing a deal. And that was also a 0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:30.800 factor we had to contend with in the Biden administration. 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:34.920 I remember speaking with Secretary State Anthony Blincoln days before 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.040 he left office, and it was clear to me in 0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:41.760 that conversation how much diplomacy surrounding the war in Gaza 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:45.640 was weighing on him. The moral stakes of that, chiefly 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.040 is that something that you think a lot about. How 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:51.800 difficult is it to, on the one hand, undergo the 0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:55.520 diplomacy the work of it, and then have the other 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.480 compliment to that, the moral aspect of that weighing on you, 0:14:58.600 --> 0:14:59.040 of course. 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:04.360 I mean, you wouldn't be human if the tragedy of 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:08.240 October seventh and it's aftermath and the war between Israel 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:12.400 and Hamas, if that didn't weigh on you. And it 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:14.400 weighs on me every day. It keeps me up at night. 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:18.240 I mean, it's just an god awful tragedy. The suffering, 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:25.920 the death of innocence, the holding of hostages, the struggle 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:34.200 of civilians. Yes, it's policymaking at the end of the day, 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:39.480 is about human beings occupying these jobs, not automatons. And 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.600 it's about the human stakes and consequences of things. And 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:44.400 no word is that more true than in the war 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:48.920 on Gaza. And of course I wish that things had 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:53.040 turned out differently so that so many civilians, innocent people 0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:56.200 hadn't died, so that we could have gotten even more 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:59.520 humanitarian assistance in while we were there, although I worked 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:01.960 every day and so did Tony and others to get 0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:04.760 more humanitarian assistance in and to stave off of famine. 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:08.240 And I think about many other decisions too that have 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:16.680 human mistakes and consequences, and you'd be an unthinking and 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.600 unfeeling person if you didn't ask yourself, what could I 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:21.840 have done? Could I have made this decision differently or 0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:25.840 that decision differently? But one thing I will say is 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:28.680 that when we handed off to the Trump administration, through 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:34.160 all of the challenges and difficulties that we confronted over 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:37.640 a four year period of great turbulence, I felt that 0:16:37.720 --> 0:16:41.040 we handed off a circumstance in which our alliances were stronger, 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:45.080 our adversaries were weaker, the engines of our national power 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:48.080 had been enhanced, and we were no longer at warm. 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:53.040 And so I felt we handed off a country that 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:56.800 was in good shape. And for that I am immensely proud. 0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:00.000 Even as I continue to turn over in my mind, 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:03.800 I had many of these difficult issues, among them very 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:06.840 much centrally among them the issue of Gaza. 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:12.200 My conversation with former National security advisor Jake Sullivan continues 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:20.000 after the break. During a wide ranging conversation with former 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:24.320 National security advisor Jake Sullivan, we talked about many global conflicts, 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:29.159 including the ongoing war in Ukraine. I'm curious as you 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.560 look at President Putin and has approached this conflict from 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:36.800 the beginning through today. What do you see as the mechanism, 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:41.040 the thing that's going to get him to withdraw step 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:44.560 back from the conflict. He seems unmoved by loss of life. 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.439 The economic situation in Russia has been worsening. What's going 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:50.280 to make a difference do you think in the status 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:51.000 of that conflict. 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:53.480 I think fundamentally Putin needs to be convinced that time 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:55.760 is not on his side, and in order to convince 0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:57.639 him of that, he needs to be convinced that the 0:17:57.720 --> 0:18:00.680 United States and its allies are going to stand behind 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.679 and continue to increase support for Ukraine and continue to 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:08.080 increase pressure on Russia. So grind on, I wouldn't even 0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:13.520 say grind on. What I would say is display clearly 0:18:13.680 --> 0:18:19.040 and emphatically that Ukraine can rely on us for the 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:23.159 necessary material to hold their ground and can rely on 0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.320 us to turn up the dial, particularly when it comes 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:29.360 to oil sanctions on Russia. And what was more difficult 0:18:29.400 --> 0:18:32.600 two years ago because of a very tight global oil market, 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:36.280 is now much more straightforward. The supply is there and 0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:39.560 therefore the opportunity is there to take Russian barrels off 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:42.520 the market, and in doing so, reduce the revenues to 0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:45.840 Putin's war machine. And if President Trump took that step, 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:50.920 alongside really doubling down on the provision of military assistance 0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:54.320 to Ukraine, I think you can begin to make Putinc 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.760 that the long term trajectory of this conflict is not 0:18:58.840 --> 0:19:01.400 going in his favor, and that would set the conditions 0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:06.040 for a more favorable negotiation for Ukraine. Now, a big 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:10.280 question is will President Trump see that through? And that 0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:12.840 is a question we will have to watch play out 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:14.440 here over the course in the next few weeks. 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:16.600 So let me posit that over the last few weeks 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:19.960 we've seen a different President Trump in the context of NATO. 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:22.120 He went to the NATO summit and was talking differently 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:25.040 about the alliance than he has in the past. It 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:28.560 seems like he's talking differently about his relationship with President 0:19:28.560 --> 0:19:31.639 Putin as well. Do you detect a similar change, and 0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:32.960 if so, do you expect that to stay? 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:35.439 Definitely? I don't know if it will stay. I hope so. 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:40.960 But it's absolutely President Trump singing a different tune on 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:45.280 both NATO and on the Russia Ukraine war, and in 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:48.880 both cases I think he has moved in the right direction. Interestingly, 0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:50.960 in both cases, I think he's moved in the direction 0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:54.080 of the American people. The American people support NATO and 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:57.400 the American people support Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:00.359 and they do so on a bipartisan basis. So my 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:02.720 hope is that it will continue. And when he takes 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.840 steps like that, I will stand up and say that's 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:08.440 a good thing. Let's keep going. But the question is, 0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:11.440 does putin think President Trump's going to stick with this. 0:20:12.080 --> 0:20:14.080 President Trump needs to prove to him that he will. 0:20:14.119 --> 0:20:15.960 And I think one key step he could take to 0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:18.359 do that would be to tighten these oil sanctions that 0:20:18.400 --> 0:20:20.159 he's threatened. He should actually put them on. 0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:22.680 I want to ask you about that more generally, because 0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:26.320 of course, the Bide administration, like the Obama administration, indeed 0:20:26.320 --> 0:20:28.560 like the first Trump administration, did, rely on sanctions as 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:31.160 a tool of national security. There are some who question 0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:34.320 the efficacy of them, see means by which countries can 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:36.600 get around them. Now that you're out of government, how 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:38.480 do you think about the role that they play, the 0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:41.720 utility of that tool in an administration's toolbox. 0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:44.000 It's not a silver bullet. You're not going to solve 0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:49.280 an international crisis or compel an adversary to particular behavior 0:20:49.880 --> 0:20:52.960 merely through the use of sanctions. But it is one 0:20:53.359 --> 0:20:55.280 in a range of tools that we can bring to 0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:58.760 bear in defense of our interests and our values and 0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:01.840 to try to shape the behavior of our competitors and adversaries. 0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:07.560 And thinking about how to apply it in the most 0:21:07.560 --> 0:21:10.919 effective and coordinated way with allies and partners is a 0:21:10.920 --> 0:21:13.520 critical part of state craft and I think will remain so. 0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:15.040 And by the way, I should just say on the 0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:19.719 Russian economy, it's definitely true that the Russian economy has 0:21:19.760 --> 0:21:23.960 been more resilient, that sanctions alone have not stopped them 0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:27.480 in their tracks. I acknowledge that it is also true 0:21:27.520 --> 0:21:30.960 that the Russian economy is facing particular headwinds and pressures 0:21:31.080 --> 0:21:33.439 right now as we speak that I think are going 0:21:33.520 --> 0:21:35.439 to have to weigh on Putin's decision making, and in 0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:37.280 that respect you can see how it's a tool that 0:21:37.320 --> 0:21:39.280 can be of some considerable use. 0:21:39.920 --> 0:21:42.320 I mentioned that NATO summit, and I'd love to get 0:21:42.359 --> 0:21:46.000 your perspective on the integrity of that alliance, how you're 0:21:46.040 --> 0:21:49.800 feeling about its current strength, its prospects going forward in 0:21:49.880 --> 0:21:52.399 light of the higher commitment these countries have made to 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:55.639 financing their defense budgets. How do you feel about the 0:21:55.680 --> 0:21:57.040 integrity of the NATO Alliance today? 0:21:57.400 --> 0:22:00.560 I am I'm a mixed minds on this. First of all, 0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:03.400 I'm proud that when we handed off the NATO Alliance, 0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:07.560 it was bigger, it was more purposeful, it was more 0:22:07.640 --> 0:22:11.040 burden sharing than at any previous point. When President Trump 0:22:11.160 --> 0:22:16.000 left office, nine NATO allies had met their two percent 0:22:16.320 --> 0:22:19.800 of GDP commitment. By the time President Biden left office, 0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:22.320 that was twenty three. So that was a big move, 0:22:22.400 --> 0:22:24.119 not in terms of pledges for the future, but in 0:22:24.200 --> 0:22:28.000