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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. One of the most

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Speaker 1: difficult and demanding jobs in any White House is that

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Speaker 1: of National Security Advisor. It comes with a long list

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Speaker 1: of responsibilities. You're a counselor to the president and someone

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Speaker 1: who coordinates with policymakers and intelligence officials and governments all

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Speaker 1: over the world. It's as close to a twenty four

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Speaker 1: to seven job as you can find, and it's one

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Speaker 1: that's been held by Condelliza Rice, Henry Kissinger and Jake Sullivan.

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Speaker 2: You know one thing I've learned over four years is

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Speaker 2: national Security advisor is that the most persistent question that

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Speaker 2: one faces in a job like that is okay, then what?

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Speaker 1: There is no downtime. You're always thinking about what will

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Speaker 1: happen next. During Sullivan's tenure, war erupted in the Middle

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Speaker 1: East and the conflict escalated in Ukraine. There was chaos

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Speaker 1: as the US withdrew his forces from Afghanistan. Since January,

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Speaker 1: Sullivan has had a chance to gather his thoughts and

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Speaker 1: to catch his breath. He's fielded questions about decisions he made,

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Speaker 1: and in interviews like this one on the Rockman Review

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Speaker 1: podcast from The Financial Times, He's been asked about the

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Speaker 1: president he worked for and that presidential debate in June

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty four, which led to Joe Biden stepping aside.

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Speaker 2: So the debate, I mean it was bad. Did it

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Speaker 2: come as a shock too, Yeah, it came as a

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Speaker 2: shock to everybody. I mean it was shocking, and it

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Speaker 2: was shocking to me. I thought it was something I

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Speaker 2: had not seen before that kind of How did its response.

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Speaker 2: I don't have a good explanation. I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: some part of it has to be the stakes of

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Speaker 2: that performance, and you know how people get in their

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Speaker 2: own heads, but that's just armchair. Yeah, you know, I

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Speaker 2: don't know. I watched that and I thought that is

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Speaker 2: something I have not seen from Joe Biden before, nor

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Speaker 2: had other people.

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Speaker 1: In an interview at the Aspen Security for Him, Jake

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Speaker 1: Sullivan and I talked about regrets he has and about

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Speaker 1: his time in the Biden white House. Sullivan also shared

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Speaker 1: his perspective on today's foreign policy and national security challenges,

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Speaker 1: which he is now watching play out from the sidelines

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Speaker 1: as a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. And on

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Speaker 1: that note, before we talked policy, I asked him something

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Speaker 1: i'd wondered about what happens when you leave a job

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Speaker 1: that is so all consuming, like national security advisor, what

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Speaker 1: happens when you're done well?

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Speaker 2: In the most immediate sense, I had a security detail,

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Speaker 2: big secret service detail. They were with me twenty four

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Speaker 2: to seven, and at twelve noon on January twentieth of

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Speaker 2: this year, they dropped me off at a bar and

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Speaker 2: walked away, I mean shook my hand and I said

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Speaker 2: thank you to them, and then they walked away and

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Speaker 2: I went to the bar and joined friend and hadn't

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Speaker 2: early drink. That's the short answer. The longer answer that

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Speaker 2: it's obviously a huge shift from the point of view

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Speaker 2: of adrenaline stress intensity, and it takes them getting used to.

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Speaker 1: I'm David Gera and this is the big tape from

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, my conversation with former

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Speaker 1: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. At a time when there

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Speaker 1: is so much conflict around the world, when long standing

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Speaker 1: alliances are under strain and President Trump is waging a

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Speaker 1: trade war, I asked former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan

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Speaker 1: what concerns he has about the US national security apparatus

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Speaker 1: he helped oversee.

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Speaker 2: I would say I have two major concerns. One of

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Speaker 2: them is immediate to some of the decisions taken by

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Speaker 2: this administration in the last few months, one of which

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Speaker 2: is more long standing. The immediate one is that I

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Speaker 2: I really do believe there has been an basically all

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Speaker 2: out assault on the professionalism the patriotism of incredible public

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Speaker 2: servants at multiple different agencies. And I think DOGE drove

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Speaker 2: a lot of that, but it's continued beyond DOGE, attacking

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Speaker 2: people who gave their career at USAIDE or the State

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Speaker 2: Department or other federal agencies. And I think this is

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Speaker 2: something deeply corrosive. It is going to reduce the extent

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Speaker 2: to which people are inspired to get into public service,

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Speaker 2: and I think that will come at both an immediate

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Speaker 2: cost to us because of all the talent capacity we've

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Speaker 2: lost and all the institutional memory and know how we've lost,

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Speaker 2: but I think it will come as a longer term

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Speaker 2: challenge as well. And then the more long standing thing

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Speaker 2: is that I fundamentally agree with the critique that says

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Speaker 2: we cannot move fast enough, big enough when it comes

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Speaker 2: to solving some of the key challenges that we face.

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Speaker 2: Fixing our defense industrial base, solving our reliance on rare

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Speaker 2: earth minerals from China, other things like that. Where do

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Speaker 2: I feel we've made progress in the Biden administration, Absolutely

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Speaker 2: more than we'd seen before. Do I feel we solve

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Speaker 2: the problem? No, these are generational problems, but we don't

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Speaker 2: have a generation to solve them. We got to solve

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Speaker 2: them much more rapidly.

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Speaker 1: Let me take those in kind and start with your

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Speaker 1: first concern, and that is the level of expertise that's

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Speaker 1: left government. Has it trickled down from Washington to the

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Speaker 1: rest of this country? Do they see the damage that

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Speaker 1: you say has been done?

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Speaker 2: You know, I think it's really hard to ask somebody

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Speaker 2: who is working a job, taking care of their family,

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Speaker 2: thinking about their aging parents, trying to make ends meet,

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Speaker 2: to care deeply about a reduction in force at the

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Speaker 2: State Department. And I would never profess to do that.

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Speaker 2: But I do believe that there are going to be practical,

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Speaker 2: real world manifestations of the hollowing out of government capacity.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I think we'll see those when crisis hits.

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Speaker 2: I think we'll see those when it comes to people

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Speaker 2: being able to rely on government to deliver the services

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Speaker 2: that are required. And then I also think that there's

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Speaker 2: something else going on here which isn't quite so transactional.

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Speaker 2: Am I getting exactly what I want from government? That's

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Speaker 2: a little bit more about a sense of pride and

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Speaker 2: purpose in our country. If you run down and denigrate

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Speaker 2: public servants constantly, you say they're you know, in it

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Speaker 2: for the wrong reasons, they're criminals in certain cases. I

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Speaker 2: think you undermine a basic sense of cohesion and common

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Speaker 2: purpose in our country that I think has all kinds

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Speaker 2: of lingering effects that aren't about a particular agency not

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Speaker 2: having a particular level of expertise. It's that more ineffable

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Speaker 2: quality that I think is eroding, the kind of deep

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Speaker 2: sense of American can do and the sense that you

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Speaker 2: know or out for a larger purpose that really will

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Speaker 2: leave a mark.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of people saw the videos from

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Speaker 1: a few days ago of career employees leaving the State

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Speaker 1: Department for the last time to the applause of their colleagues.

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Speaker 1: When you look at the cuts that have been made

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Speaker 1: both to funding and to staff, are you optimistic that

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Speaker 1: that can be reversed in a future administration or is

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Speaker 1: the damage going to be wherever?

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Speaker 2: Look, you can rebuild these muscles, but it takes longer

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Speaker 2: to rebuild them than it takes to destroy them. And

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Speaker 2: that's true in our lives, like if you lay off

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Speaker 2: exercising for a while, it just takes you that much

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Speaker 2: longer to get back in shape, and I think that's

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Speaker 2: going to be true with government as well. And I

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Speaker 2: want to be clear, I'm not arguing there is no

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Speaker 2: scope for streamlining or personnel reform or programmatic reform or

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Speaker 2: budget savings. I'm not arguing that at all. What I'm

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Speaker 2: arguing is something more fundamental, which is the method by

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Speaker 2: which this has been approached has been, in my view,

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Speaker 2: basically to borrow a tailor swift line. It's been casually

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Speaker 2: cruel in the name of being honest. They say, oh,

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Speaker 2: we're just doing what's right, and we're telling it like

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Speaker 2: it is. No, there's a cruelty to this that I

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Speaker 2: think is totally unnecessary, and I think it also means

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Speaker 2: it's not rigorous, targeted, focused on genuine reform, genuine streamlining.

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Speaker 2: It's using a bludgeon a sledgehammer, where I believe that

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Speaker 2: much more precise tools are required to improve the function

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Speaker 2: of government.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about a few hotspots and you spend a

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Speaker 1: lot of time shuttling back and forth between Washington and

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, certainly after October seventh, and I'm curious

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Speaker 1: how reconfigured the Middle East is today than before that

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Speaker 1: attack that Hamas launched. How different does the Middle East

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Speaker 1: look today than it did?

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Speaker 2: It's considerably different, So first when we left office, and

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Speaker 2: even more so now, Iran is at its weakest point

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Speaker 2: since nineteen seventy nine. It's lost its main proxies, it's

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Speaker 2: lost its main client stat a SAD, lost its conventional

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Speaker 2: military deterrent, and now its nuclear program has been set

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Speaker 2: back but not completely eliminated, and we are going to

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Speaker 2: have to continue to solve for that. So that remains

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Speaker 2: a constant, the need for a deal to solve a

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Speaker 2: Iran's nuclear program. Then you look at the possibilities that

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Speaker 2: exist in both Lebanon and Syria, but their attendant with

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Speaker 2: really significant risks as well. And so to me, the

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Speaker 2: most important thing that can happen at this point is

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Speaker 2: to get an end to the war in Gaza and

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Speaker 2: then to get a credible pathway to a Palestinian state,

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Speaker 2: because without a credible pathway to a pals Danian state,

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Speaker 2: I do not see a future for normalization between Israel

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Speaker 2: and Saudi Arabia and other of its Arab neighbors. And

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Speaker 2: I do not see a way of building on the

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Speaker 2: promise of a new Middle East. I think we may

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Speaker 2: just get into further cycles of instability and challenge. And

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Speaker 2: what we've seen, for example, just in the last few

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Speaker 2: days in Syria is a reminder that this is not

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Speaker 2: just going to be some smooth pathway to a better

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Speaker 2: future for Syria or for other countries. It's going to

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Speaker 2: require hard decisions, and it's going to require connecting military

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Speaker 2: actions today to a strategic endgame tomorrow that is sustainable

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Speaker 2: and just. And so far I haven't seen from this

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Speaker 2: Israeli government a willingness to do that to.

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Speaker 1: Israel has attacked Syria in recent days. Do you share

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Speaker 1: this administration's optimism about the path forward for Syria.

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Speaker 2: I believe that it is right to give this new

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Speaker 2: government in Syria a chance, And in fact, the Asad

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Speaker 2: regime fell in the closing weeks of the Biden administration,

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Speaker 2: and almost immediately we sent a senior official to go

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Speaker 2: meet with El Shara and the new leader of Syria.

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Speaker 2: We began the process of lifting some sanctions, and we

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Speaker 2: set a pathway which then President Trump took a huge

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Speaker 2: step forward on a quite significant step in basically saying

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Speaker 2: We're going to normalize relations and lift all the sanctions.

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Speaker 2: And I applauded that at the time, and I think

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Speaker 2: that that is the right thing. Does that mean I

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Speaker 2: share optimism as an irishman, I'm going to reserve anything

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Speaker 2: remotely resentling optimism here. What I would say is, there

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Speaker 2: is an opportunity, and we should do our best to

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Speaker 2: test and pursue that opportunity. But we also should be

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Speaker 2: strong in pushing back against actions, including actions by Israel,

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Speaker 2: that could potentially take this fragile opportunity and make it

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Speaker 2: more difficult to consummate.

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Speaker 1: The last time you spoke with Bloomberg was in January,

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Speaker 1: and you said, of the conflict between Israel and Hamas,

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Speaker 1: there could be a deal maybe in a matter of weeks.

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Speaker 1: Here we are many months since then. What's it going

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Speaker 1: to take to get one, as you see it?

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Speaker 2: Well, first of all, there was a deal within a

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Speaker 2: matter of weeks after I made that comment. There was

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Speaker 2: a deal consummated in the closing days of the Biden administration.

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Speaker 2: It was a ceasefire. The ceasefire consisted of six weeks

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Speaker 2: of an end to all of the military action on

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Speaker 2: both sides, the return of many hostages, and a surge

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Speaker 2: in humanitarian assistants. And it also included a key provision

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Speaker 2: that said, during those six weeks, Israel and Hamas should

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Speaker 2: begin a series negotiation through third parties to turn that

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Speaker 2: temporary ceasefire into a permanent ceasefire. That's what we handed

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Speaker 2: off to the Trump administration. That's what they inherited on

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Speaker 2: day one, a ceasefire in place for six weeks, with

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Speaker 2: a provision not only that they should use the six

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Speaker 2: weeks to turn it into a permanent ceasefire, but also

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Speaker 2: that the six weeks could be extended indefinitely if they

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Speaker 2: were making progress. After forty two days, instead of working

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Speaker 2: diligently towards a permanent ceasefire, Israel went back to the conflict.

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Speaker 2: And so here we sit today in July, after many

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Speaker 2: more months, and the answer is quite straightforward, which it

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Speaker 2: is time to bring an end to this war, to

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Speaker 2: bring the hostages home, to get humanitarian assistance in and

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Speaker 2: to work towards a two state solution. And I believe

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Speaker 2: that the Trump administration, having taken the action, they took in.

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Speaker 2: Iran should use all of their capacity and clout to

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Speaker 2: try to bring that about. But my hope is, and

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Speaker 2: I can't say it's my expectation because I don't know

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Speaker 2: what will happen, But my hope is that in the

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Speaker 2: coming period a ceasefire will get in place and it

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Speaker 2: will stick.

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Speaker 1: How did you navigate the thorniness of Israeli domestic politics

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Speaker 1: during all the negotiations that you were party too and

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Speaker 1: trying to encourage. So we've seen this very comprehensive piece

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Speaker 1: in the New York Times laying out the timetable from

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Speaker 1: October seventh to a day when there were deals on

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Speaker 1: the table, when they weren't, when they were scuttled. And

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Speaker 1: an overarching theme of that is that Prime Minister Ntya,

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Speaker 1: who's domestic concerns play the sizeable role in how all

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Speaker 1: of this has evolved. Is it going to continue to

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Speaker 1: play that bigger role going forward? Do you think? Well?

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Speaker 2: It has over the course of the past several months.

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Speaker 2: It had did under President Biden, it has under President Trump.

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Speaker 2: That's a fixed variable. Prime Minister Ntya, who is going

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Speaker 2: to focus on his political position, That's what he's done,

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Speaker 2: That's what we will continue to do. But I think

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Speaker 2: I have to say that even though I never found

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Speaker 2: prime Minister in Nyah who particularly the enthusiastic about doing

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Speaker 2: a deal, was not enthusiastic about doing a deal either,

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Speaker 2: And there were many months where Israel had actually said

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Speaker 2: yes to a basic framework where Hamas really didn't want

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Speaker 2: to negotiate seriously. Now, do I think that that means

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Speaker 2: it's all Hamas's fault and not the prime minister's And

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Speaker 2: that's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is you had,

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Speaker 2: on the one hand, a prime minister who was not

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Speaker 2: particularly keen on closing a deal. But on the other hand,

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Speaker 2: you really didn't have a party in Hamas that was

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Speaker 2: serious about closing a deal. And that was also a

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Speaker 2: factor we had to contend with in the Biden administration.

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Speaker 1: I remember speaking with Secretary State Anthony Blincoln days before

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Speaker 1: he left office, and it was clear to me in

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Speaker 1: that conversation how much diplomacy surrounding the war in Gaza

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Speaker 1: was weighing on him. The moral stakes of that, chiefly

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Speaker 1: is that something that you think a lot about. How

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Speaker 1: difficult is it to, on the one hand, undergo the

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Speaker 1: diplomacy the work of it, and then have the other

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Speaker 1: compliment to that, the moral aspect of that weighing on you,

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Speaker 1: of course.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you wouldn't be human if the tragedy of

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Speaker 2: October seventh and it's aftermath and the war between Israel

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Speaker 2: and Hamas, if that didn't weigh on you. And it

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Speaker 2: weighs on me every day. It keeps me up at night.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's just an god awful tragedy. The suffering,

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Speaker 2: the death of innocence, the holding of hostages, the struggle

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Speaker 2: of civilians. Yes, it's policymaking at the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: is about human beings occupying these jobs, not automatons. And

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Speaker 2: it's about the human stakes and consequences of things. And

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Speaker 2: no word is that more true than in the war

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Speaker 2: on Gaza. And of course I wish that things had

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Speaker 2: turned out differently so that so many civilians, innocent people

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Speaker 2: hadn't died, so that we could have gotten even more

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Speaker 2: humanitarian assistance in while we were there, although I worked

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Speaker 2: every day and so did Tony and others to get

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Speaker 2: more humanitarian assistance in and to stave off of famine.

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Speaker 2: And I think about many other decisions too that have

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Speaker 2: human mistakes and consequences, and you'd be an unthinking and

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Speaker 2: unfeeling person if you didn't ask yourself, what could I

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Speaker 2: have done? Could I have made this decision differently or

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Speaker 2: that decision differently? But one thing I will say is

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Speaker 2: that when we handed off to the Trump administration, through

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Speaker 2: all of the challenges and difficulties that we confronted over

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Speaker 2: a four year period of great turbulence, I felt that

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Speaker 2: we handed off a circumstance in which our alliances were stronger,

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Speaker 2: our adversaries were weaker, the engines of our national power

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Speaker 2: had been enhanced, and we were no longer at warm.

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Speaker 2: And so I felt we handed off a country that

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Speaker 2: was in good shape. And for that I am immensely proud.

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Speaker 2: Even as I continue to turn over in my mind,

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Speaker 2: I had many of these difficult issues, among them very

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Speaker 2: much centrally among them the issue of Gaza.

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Speaker 1: My conversation with former National security advisor Jake Sullivan continues

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Speaker 1: after the break. During a wide ranging conversation with former

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Speaker 1: National security advisor Jake Sullivan, we talked about many global conflicts,

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Speaker 1: including the ongoing war in Ukraine. I'm curious as you

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Speaker 1: look at President Putin and has approached this conflict from

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Speaker 1: the beginning through today. What do you see as the mechanism,

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Speaker 1: the thing that's going to get him to withdraw step

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Speaker 1: back from the conflict. He seems unmoved by loss of life.

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Speaker 1: The economic situation in Russia has been worsening. What's going

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Speaker 1: to make a difference do you think in the status

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Speaker 1: of that conflict.

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Speaker 2: I think fundamentally Putin needs to be convinced that time

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Speaker 2: is not on his side, and in order to convince

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Speaker 2: him of that, he needs to be convinced that the

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Speaker 2: United States and its allies are going to stand behind

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Speaker 2: and continue to increase support for Ukraine and continue to

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Speaker 2: increase pressure on Russia. So grind on, I wouldn't even

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Speaker 2: say grind on. What I would say is display clearly

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Speaker 2: and emphatically that Ukraine can rely on us for the

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Speaker 2: necessary material to hold their ground and can rely on

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Speaker 2: us to turn up the dial, particularly when it comes

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Speaker 2: to oil sanctions on Russia. And what was more difficult

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Speaker 2: two years ago because of a very tight global oil market,

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Speaker 2: is now much more straightforward. The supply is there and

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Speaker 2: therefore the opportunity is there to take Russian barrels off

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Speaker 2: the market, and in doing so, reduce the revenues to

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Speaker 2: Putin's war machine. And if President Trump took that step,

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Speaker 2: alongside really doubling down on the provision of military assistance

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Speaker 2: to Ukraine, I think you can begin to make Putinc

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Speaker 2: that the long term trajectory of this conflict is not

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Speaker 2: going in his favor, and that would set the conditions

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Speaker 2: for a more favorable negotiation for Ukraine. Now, a big

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Speaker 2: question is will President Trump see that through? And that

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Speaker 2: is a question we will have to watch play out

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Speaker 2: here over the course in the next few weeks.

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Speaker 1: So let me posit that over the last few weeks

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Speaker 1: we've seen a different President Trump in the context of NATO.

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Speaker 1: He went to the NATO summit and was talking differently

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Speaker 1: about the alliance than he has in the past. It

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Speaker 1: seems like he's talking differently about his relationship with President

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Speaker 1: Putin as well. Do you detect a similar change, and

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Speaker 1: if so, do you expect that to stay?

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Speaker 2: Definitely? I don't know if it will stay. I hope so.

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Speaker 2: But it's absolutely President Trump singing a different tune on

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Speaker 2: both NATO and on the Russia Ukraine war, and in

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Speaker 2: both cases I think he has moved in the right direction. Interestingly,

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Speaker 2: in both cases, I think he's moved in the direction

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Speaker 2: of the American people. The American people support NATO and

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Speaker 2: the American people support Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression,

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Speaker 2: and they do so on a bipartisan basis. So my

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Speaker 2: hope is that it will continue. And when he takes

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Speaker 2: steps like that, I will stand up and say that's

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Speaker 2: a good thing. Let's keep going. But the question is,

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Speaker 2: does putin think President Trump's going to stick with this.

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Speaker 2: President Trump needs to prove to him that he will.

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Speaker 2: And I think one key step he could take to

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Speaker 2: do that would be to tighten these oil sanctions that

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Speaker 2: he's threatened. He should actually put them on.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you about that more generally, because

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Speaker 1: of course, the Bide administration, like the Obama administration, indeed

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Speaker 1: like the first Trump administration, did, rely on sanctions as

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Speaker 1: a tool of national security. There are some who question

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Speaker 1: the efficacy of them, see means by which countries can

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Speaker 1: get around them. Now that you're out of government, how

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Speaker 1: do you think about the role that they play, the

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Speaker 1: utility of that tool in an administration's toolbox.

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Speaker 2: It's not a silver bullet. You're not going to solve

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Speaker 2: an international crisis or compel an adversary to particular behavior

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Speaker 2: merely through the use of sanctions. But it is one

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Speaker 2: in a range of tools that we can bring to

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Speaker 2: bear in defense of our interests and our values and

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Speaker 2: to try to shape the behavior of our competitors and adversaries.

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Speaker 2: And thinking about how to apply it in the most

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Speaker 2: effective and coordinated way with allies and partners is a

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Speaker 2: critical part of state craft and I think will remain so.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, I should just say on the

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Speaker 2: Russian economy, it's definitely true that the Russian economy has

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Speaker 2: been more resilient, that sanctions alone have not stopped them

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Speaker 2: in their tracks. I acknowledge that it is also true

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Speaker 2: that the Russian economy is facing particular headwinds and pressures

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Speaker 2: right now as we speak that I think are going

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Speaker 2: to have to weigh on Putin's decision making, and in

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Speaker 2: that respect you can see how it's a tool that

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Speaker 2: can be of some considerable use.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned that NATO summit, and I'd love to get

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Speaker 1: your perspective on the integrity of that alliance, how you're

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Speaker 1: feeling about its current strength, its prospects going forward in

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Speaker 1: light of the higher commitment these countries have made to

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Speaker 1: financing their defense budgets. How do you feel about the

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Speaker 1: integrity of the NATO Alliance today?

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Speaker 2: I am I'm a mixed minds on this. First of all,

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Speaker 2: I'm proud that when we handed off the NATO Alliance,

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Speaker 2: it was bigger, it was more purposeful, it was more

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Speaker 2: burden sharing than at any previous point. When President Trump

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Speaker 2: left office, nine NATO allies had met their two percent

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Speaker 2: of GDP commitment. By the time President Biden left office,

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Speaker 2: that was twenty three. So that was a big move,

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Speaker 2: not in terms of pledges for the future, but in

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Speaker 2: terms of actual dollars spent. So I'm proud of that,

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Speaker 2: and I think President Trump did a good thing in

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Speaker 2: pressing for an increased commitment with respect to defense spending.

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Speaker 2: There's a real question about follow through. Now we have

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Speaker 2: to make sure that that actually happens. The Germans have

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Speaker 2: taken a big step. I'd like to see others do

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Speaker 2: so as well. But there is also increasing talk in

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Speaker 2: Europe about how much they can trust the United States,

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Speaker 2: and that concerns me, and to a certain extent saddens me.

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Speaker 2: You know, we were working very closely with Europe over

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Speaker 2: the four years of the Biden administration on an aligned

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Speaker 2: strategy to collectively de risk from China reduce our strategic

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Speaker 2: dependence on China. Now, a lot of the talk in

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Speaker 2: Europe is not necessarily about de risking from China. It's

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Speaker 2: about de risking from America. And I don't like that

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Speaker 2: because I think if we have cohesion and common purpose

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Speaker 2: with our European allies, we are stronger. So I think

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Speaker 2: this was a good step at the NATO summit, but

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Speaker 2: it comes against a backdrop of deep uncertainty about where

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Speaker 2: exactly the trust and the common purpose in the relationship

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Speaker 2: will be in the years ahead. And as someone who

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Speaker 2: believes deeply in the trans Atlantic alliance, I want to

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Speaker 2: contribute to that trust and common purpose in any way

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Speaker 2: that I can.

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Speaker 1: Is that principally because of the trade war, because of

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Speaker 1: the position that the administration has taken on its trade

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Speaker 1: relationship with Europe, that you see that change.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a few factors. I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: it was a signal moment when the Vice President went

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Speaker 2: to Munich and gave a speech that was greeted frankly

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Speaker 2: with horror by the Europeans. And I think the Vice

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Speaker 2: President has adjusted his framing to a certain extent since then,

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Speaker 2: I think it was part the image of President Trump

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Speaker 2: with President's Lensky in the Oval office, and there again

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Speaker 2: now you've seen President Trump adjust course. It's the trade

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Speaker 2: war and the coercive effort to bend friends to our

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Speaker 2: will rather than try to work through whatever issues we

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00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 2: have with them. And it's a lot of flirtation with

439
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 2: a particular ideological current in Europe which says we're going

440
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 2: to you know, we have a preference for right wing parties.

441
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: You know, when the Vice President went to Germany, he

442
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 2: didn't meet with the chancellor, but he met with the

443
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 2: head of the AfD, which is their far right party. Okay,

444
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 2: people in Europe take notice of that. So these are

445
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 2: some of the factors at play. On the other hand,

446
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 2: the logic behind this alliance, the history behind this alliance,

447
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 2: the people to people ties undergirding this alliance, the deep

448
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 2: integration of our economies and our defense industrial bases and

449
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 2: our militaries and our intelligence services. These are all very

450
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 2: powerful things. So I think there is an opportunity to

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00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 2: have NATO remain a strong and vibrant and task oriented alliance.

452
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 2: But it's going to require work and it's going to

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00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 2: require the current administration to take a hard look at

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00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 2: the ways in which it may be eroding the foundations

455
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 2: of that alliance for the longer term that could come

456
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: back to harm America in the future.

457
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 1: After the break, former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and

458
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: I talk about the relationship between the US and China

459
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 1: and what issue he thinks isn't getting enough attention today

460
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 1: from policymakers and politicians. During his first term as President,

461
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Poe a twenty five percent tariff on

462
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 1: Chinese exports, and President Biden kept that policy in place.

463
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 1: When Jake Sullivan started as National Security Advisor, tensions were

464
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: high between the US and China and communication between the

465
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 1: two countries had broken down. I asked him where he

466
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,919
Speaker 1: thinks that relationship stands today, some six months into President

467
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 1: Trump's second term. So much of what the Biden administration

468
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 1: did Visa VI China had to do with just re

469
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 1: opening lines of communication between these two countries after the

470
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 1: first Trump term. I remember talking with Secretary Jenny Yellen

471
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 1: about that, the work that she did, the trip she

472
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: took to China to again re establish that conduit of communication.

473
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,360
Speaker 1: What do you make of the current level of dialogue

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00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: between these countries. Of course, against the backdrop of the

475
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: trade war what you've seen, particularly when it comes to

476
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: what levers both sides have here in that relationship, principally

477
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: when it comes to rare earth minerals.

478
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 2: Yes, So just on the diplomacy piece, I mean, the

479
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 2: core element of the Biden administration strategy was we were

480
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,479
Speaker 2: going to compete intensively, investment in the sources of our

481
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 2: own strength, build up our relations and common strategy with

482
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 2: our allies, impose export controls so China couldn't use our

483
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 2: most advanced technologies against us. And we took all of

484
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 2: those steps, and I think when we left office we

485
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: had dramatically strengthened our competitive position visa ba China. But

486
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 2: alongside that intense competition, we practiced intense diplomacy because our

487
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 2: view was you had out to have to manage the

488
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 2: competition so it doesn't tip over into conflict, and in

489
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:35,919
Speaker 2: particular that requires not just transactional conversations, but deep strategic

490
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 2: discussions about our respective perspectives and priorities. And I carried

491
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 2: on more than fifty hours of those discussions with my

492
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 2: counterpart one Yee, the Foreign minister and their polyp Buro

493
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 2: member in charge of foreign affairs. I don't see that

494
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 2: happening right now, and I think that that is to

495
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 2: the detriment of both the United States and China. And

496
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 2: there's nothing inconsistent with pursuing that diplomacy while also pursuing competition.

497
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 2: On the other hand, there is an active and ongoing

498
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 2: channel on the trade issues that occasionally produces flare ups

499
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: and escalations and then de escalations and so forth, but

500
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 2: it's clearly an open channel. And then, finally, one of

501
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 2: the things I'm proud of is that we got military

502
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 2: to military communications re established at a high and sustained

503
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 2: level and basically got that to hold through thick and thin,

504
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 2: and it's continuing to hold even despite all of the

505
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 2: trade tensions between the two countries. That is a good thing.

506
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 2: That is how you avoid unintended escalation into conflict, and

507
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 2: I think that's to the benefit of the American people.

508
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 1: I've asked you about the Middle East, Ukraine, China. I

509
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: would often marvel as I looked at my inbox and

510
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: got readouts of the calls that you had of how

511
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: wide your remit was. When you were National Security Advisor

512
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 1: how many conversations you were having, how much you had

513
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 1: to focus on is there a conflict or an issue?

514
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: Certainly we haven't talked about, but people generally don't talk

515
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 1: about that you think bears more attention.

516
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 2: Look, I think AI is getting more attention, But I

517
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 2: still think in the national security community and particularly on

518
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill, is not at the level it needs to

519
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 2: be at, given how fast this technology is moving and

520
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 2: how rapidly we need a common sense of both managing

521
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 2: the risks and seizing the opportunities of it, and I

522
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 2: just don't see that reflected in the policy conversation in DC.

523
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: I think that is a real challenge. Then in terms

524
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 2: of conflicts, you know, I used to say India Pakistan.

525
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 2: Then of course it flared up and we had a

526
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 2: real escalation between two nuclear armed superpowers that then de escalated.

527
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 2: But that challenge is not going away, and I think

528
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 2: will require careful attention in the years ahead.

529
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 1: You had this job as National Security Advisor. Your successor

530
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 1: now has that job and three other ones, including being

531
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 1: Secretary of State. Can you fathom doing your job the

532
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: job you had plus these other ones. Does it make

533
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: sense to you to operate that way in this current environment.

534
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 2: Well, look, I like to joke that when I was

535
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 2: National Security Advisor, I never once for a moment, thought, man,

536
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 2: I have enough spare time to be Secretary of State.

537
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 2: No way. Being national security advisor is more than a

538
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 2: full time job, so as being Secretary of State. So also,

539
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 2: frankly is having a bench with enough people who you

540
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 2: can throw at these challenges. And I think if you

541
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 2: shrink that bench too much, that comes at a cost.

542
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 2: But almost by definition, there's going to have to be

543
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 2: a trade off. A Secretary of State who's supposed to

544
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 2: be engaging the world, a national security advisor who's supposed

545
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 2: to be coordinating the government and the policy process. Something's

546
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 2: got to give. On the other hand, you know, each

547
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 2: president sets up their national security decision making apparatus as

548
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 2: they choose to do so, and this is what this

549
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 2: president has chosen to do. At the end of the day,

550
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 2: what matters is how does this play out over time,

551
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 2: less than who's particularly occupying what role. So let's see.

552
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerra.

553
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,680
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554
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556
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