WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend-October 17, 2020

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Hi,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Carol Masser. Welcome to the weekend edition of Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week. It is week thirty one, working from home

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<v Speaker 1>for so many Still, the presidential election got closer, more

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus relief stimulus got farther away, and we had a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of conversations about working from home versus getting back

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<v Speaker 1>to the office. Not everyone agrees on that. Well. Coming

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<v Speaker 1>up this week, dis Eruption is an opportunity for innovation

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<v Speaker 1>and new thought. Former Mayor of Kansas City Slide James

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<v Speaker 1>on the impact of the virus on education and getting

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<v Speaker 1>out the vote. Plus, there will be a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>changes as we move forward, bringing back Broadway with the

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<v Speaker 1>president of the Broadway League. We begin, though, first with

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<v Speaker 1>the presidential election now just a little more than two

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<v Speaker 1>weeks out. Florida has become a battleground when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the November elections, and as Josh greenwrights, Florida seniors

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<v Speaker 1>could seal President Trump's fate. On election night, bloombergs Paul

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<v Speaker 1>Sweeney and I caught up with John National correspondent at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week, along with Bloomberg Business Week editor Jille Webber,

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<v Speaker 1>as Josh writes, Uh, in this dispatch, Um, we're really

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<v Speaker 1>looking at an outcome here that for Trump to have

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<v Speaker 1>any real certainty of getting back and retaining the Oval office,

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<v Speaker 1>he really needs Florida, and so the Democrat strategy is

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<v Speaker 1>obviously to try and take Florida out of his hands.

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<v Speaker 1>But what Josh actually gets into here is the there

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<v Speaker 1>are some early numbers that we're seeing from Florida, and

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<v Speaker 1>the swing among seniors UM, which is a demographic that

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<v Speaker 1>Trump had had locked down last election, is just one

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<v Speaker 1>eight and is already in early numbers, is veering towards Biden. Josh,

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<v Speaker 1>what does that mean in the grand scheme of things, Well, basically,

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<v Speaker 1>what it means that the current trends continue, Uh, Trump

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<v Speaker 1>isn't gonna win Florida, and Crump doesn't win Florida, He's

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<v Speaker 1>not going to win the election. But what's really interesting

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<v Speaker 1>about this is we've all been reading about these nightmare

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<v Speaker 1>scenarios where states don't count their vote and from the

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<v Speaker 1>weeks and the election is consisted. What's great about Florida

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<v Speaker 1>is that it counts its votes early as they come in.

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<v Speaker 1>So about of the votes early votes already cast in

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<v Speaker 1>the twenty general elections have been cast Florida and have

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<v Speaker 1>already been counted, and Florida updates those numbers. So what

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<v Speaker 1>we did was we took a look at who was

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<v Speaker 1>voting early, and the thing that really jumped out was

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<v Speaker 1>that seniors, voters age sixty five and vote or older,

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<v Speaker 1>we're voting at the ten then later clip in than

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<v Speaker 1>they were at this point four years ago. If you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the poll numbers. We wrote about this in

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<v Speaker 1>our election issue in Business Week in September, a group

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<v Speaker 1>that I called swinging seniors senior supported Trump, not necessarily

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<v Speaker 1>what you think it might mean, So I better explained

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<v Speaker 1>senior supported Trump at a seventy point in origin. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>The latest polls in Florida have Biden win seniors by

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen points. So if you add those two things together,

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<v Speaker 1>a huge swing to Biding among seniors and a huge

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<v Speaker 1>outpouring of support, it isn't surprising that this is good

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<v Speaker 1>news for Biding. And if it keeps up at this pace,

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<v Speaker 1>what I say is we will know on election night

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not Biding his one Florida, and if he has,

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<v Speaker 1>I think he's a very good chance that he's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be president. So, Josh, what has the president quote

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<v Speaker 1>unquote done wrong? It's certainly not for lack of effort

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<v Speaker 1>down there. He was just down there again campaigning. What's

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<v Speaker 1>really been the change? Well, there have been two things.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, number one in the easy answer is COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>He was down there to a gigantic, maskless rally in Orlando. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>which you might imagine, Uh, spooks it awful lot of seniors.

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<v Speaker 1>If you look at the main drive or the senior vote.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been Trump's handling of the COVID pandemic. Uh, doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>seem to have a lot of inspired a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>commerce among older voters. Not necessarily surprising, but you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as I saying, the piece of the big question about

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<v Speaker 1>early voting is are these new voters? Is this is

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<v Speaker 1>this genuine enthusiasm or have older voters simply moved up

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<v Speaker 1>when they cast their ballot? Are these just people who

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<v Speaker 1>vote anywhere on election day deciding to vote early through

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<v Speaker 1>the mail because it seems safer. Um, that's certainly some

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<v Speaker 1>of it. But the other interesting factor here is that

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<v Speaker 1>it appears to be much broader than that, and much

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<v Speaker 1>broader than COVID, because if you go back and look

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<v Speaker 1>at the results of mid term elections, there was once

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<v Speaker 1>again a huge spike in senior voters, and of course

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<v Speaker 1>that predated COVID. So what we can conclude from that

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<v Speaker 1>is its seniors are much more eager to vote and

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<v Speaker 1>seem to be much more willing to vote for Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>now than they were in And if those trends continuous Florida,

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<v Speaker 1>where they're especially pronounced because there are so many old

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<v Speaker 1>people there, uh, it really spells bad news with them. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and what's interesting is you have to think Josh at

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<v Speaker 1>the Trump camp is a little bit worried because you

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<v Speaker 1>think about the video and he did you know, after

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<v Speaker 1>coming out of the hospital. It was aimed directly at seniors. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so when Trump was was cooped up in the White House,

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<v Speaker 1>when he was still contagious with coronavirus, he shot a

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<v Speaker 1>kind of an awkward cheerleading video on the on the

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<v Speaker 1>lawn of the West Wing. Um there was aimed at

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<v Speaker 1>reassuring seniors, you know, I love you, I care about you,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, so on and so forth. I think that

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<v Speaker 1>was a clear reflection that his campaign staff was looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the same numbers I am and seeing themselves. Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, unless we change the mind to the senior

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<v Speaker 1>voters pouring out to the polls and into the post

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<v Speaker 1>office to mail their ballot, we're gonna be in real

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<v Speaker 1>big trouble. Let's try and turn this around now. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the problem is, you know, it's really hard to

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<v Speaker 1>change public impression of how you handle the pandemic if

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<v Speaker 1>you come out of the hospital, stick with COVID and

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<v Speaker 1>then turn ondis letter and have a maskless rally like

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<v Speaker 1>Trump in Florida. That's Bloomberg business Week national correspondent Josh Green,

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<v Speaker 1>who's also author of Devil's Bargain, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>and then Nationalist Uprising, along with Bloomberg business Week editor

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<v Speaker 1>Joel Weber. We know it was a busy week when

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<v Speaker 1>it came to politics. The presidents certainly out there on

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<v Speaker 1>the campaign trail, so too was the Biden campaign. And

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<v Speaker 1>an interesting development because we heard that Democratic vice presidential

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<v Speaker 1>nominee Kamala Harris she canceled her travel until Monday after

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<v Speaker 1>her communications director and a member of her flight crew

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<v Speaker 1>tested positive for COVID nineteen. So some developments along the

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<v Speaker 1>campaign trail. Speaking of the election, he's been working on

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<v Speaker 1>getting out the vote and also writing the world when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to injustices. We're gonna check in with former

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<v Speaker 1>Kansas City mayor Sly James. That's coming up next. This

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with GARYL. Masser

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Radio. So common themes through many of our

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<v Speaker 1>interviews throughout the week on our daily show had to

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<v Speaker 1>do with the two pandemics facing our country. We're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about the virus and racial injustice. Bloomberg Paul Sweeney and

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<v Speaker 1>I got into that with our next guest, known for

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<v Speaker 1>his bow ties when he was mayor of Kansas City,

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<v Speaker 1>Slide James is now focusing on building cities for our children,

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<v Speaker 1>prioritizing education. You had a book that came out over

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<v Speaker 1>the summer, the Opportunity Agenda, a bold democratic plan to

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<v Speaker 1>grow the middle class. We talked to education, we talked

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic, and of course getting out the vote. This

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic and the economic upheaval that's caused along with the

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<v Speaker 1>social upheaval. It's kind of like the perfect storm. Every

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<v Speaker 1>fissure and crack in our society is being opened and

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<v Speaker 1>laid there. People are able to see it. And one

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<v Speaker 1>thing about these, uh, these disruptive times is disruption is

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<v Speaker 1>an opportunity for innovation and new thoughts. And if we

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<v Speaker 1>look at it like that and recognize that we've got

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<v Speaker 1>problems and work on them, we may be able to

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<v Speaker 1>bring some new ideas to the forefront solve some of

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<v Speaker 1>these problems. Sly, how about in terms of education kids

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<v Speaker 1>around the country or back at school, some virtually, some physically,

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<v Speaker 1>some hybrid model. But what we've seen from last spring

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<v Speaker 1>and now in the fall here is minority students are

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<v Speaker 1>really at risk here of I guess falling through the cracks,

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<v Speaker 1>are certainly at a disadvantage in this new virtual learning environment.

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<v Speaker 1>What are your thoughts there, Um, Well, first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>I agree with you wholeheartedly. I think minority students, but

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to broaden it out to say children who

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<v Speaker 1>live in poverty are are all at an extreme disadvantage.

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<v Speaker 1>They do not have access to the resources. They do

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<v Speaker 1>not have access to broadband, they do not have access

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<v Speaker 1>to the hardware, they do not have access to the

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<v Speaker 1>innovative ideas that money and higher resource levels are able

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<v Speaker 1>to bring that their more world heeled counterparts to do. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>the problem that we have, of course, is that it

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<v Speaker 1>would be one thing if we were at the top

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<v Speaker 1>of the heat that we were talking about an incremental

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<v Speaker 1>fall that puts us someplace in the middle of the pack.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're not at the top of the heap. As

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<v Speaker 1>a society and education we're falling faster and fast or

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<v Speaker 1>behind other countries. So every kid in this country is

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<v Speaker 1>falling behind our competitors around the world, and our kids

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<v Speaker 1>at the bottom of the ladder are about to slip

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<v Speaker 1>off and fall into the abyss. These problems have been there,

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<v Speaker 1>uh they are now just being laid there and open

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<v Speaker 1>because of this pandemic has forced us to look at

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<v Speaker 1>them in a different way. It's not The good news

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<v Speaker 1>is is that people are looking at them in a

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<v Speaker 1>different way and maybe some incremental change that's going to happen,

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<v Speaker 1>But without a systemic approach to it, without an intentional

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<v Speaker 1>approach to it, we're going to continue to have the

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<v Speaker 1>same education gaps that we've always had. They may shrink

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<v Speaker 1>a little, but it's now time to look at it

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<v Speaker 1>for what it really is, a disaster for the long

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<v Speaker 1>term economy of this country and fix it. Well, what

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<v Speaker 1>you just said, a systemic approach. It's a systemic problem,

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<v Speaker 1>so it needs a systemic approach. So if if you

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<v Speaker 1>could list I don't know a couple of things that

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<v Speaker 1>we need to do already, because I'm so tired of

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<v Speaker 1>the convert state. I'm not tired of the conversation. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>tired of people talking about it but not doing something.

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<v Speaker 1>What would you say we need to slide? Well, first

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<v Speaker 1>of all, I think we need to find political leadership

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<v Speaker 1>that's not afraid to lose um. And by that I

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<v Speaker 1>mean we can't have leaders who will do anything to

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<v Speaker 1>stay in office, even if it means giving up ideas

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<v Speaker 1>and ideals that they know are valuable. We've got to

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<v Speaker 1>have people that are willing to say I'm going to

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<v Speaker 1>fight for this, and if I lose, I lose, but

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to fight for it. We need sustained leadership

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<v Speaker 1>to focus on this and this and and it can't

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<v Speaker 1>be subject to the normal O uh democratic republican rebound

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<v Speaker 1>philosophy that we see so often, where one party gets

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<v Speaker 1>in does some droubles the ball for a bit, the

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<v Speaker 1>other ball comes in and steals. Other team comes in

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<v Speaker 1>and steals the ball and dribbles in the opposite direction.

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<v Speaker 1>So that at the end of the day, neither side

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<v Speaker 1>is doing much of anything you said, dribbling away from

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<v Speaker 1>each other. We need people who are in charge who

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<v Speaker 1>recognizes number two. We have to recognize that people. People

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<v Speaker 1>need to find a way. We need to find a

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<v Speaker 1>way to bring people together in such a way that

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<v Speaker 1>they actually influence an impact the leadership. Not talking about lobbyists,

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<v Speaker 1>not talking about business. I'm talking about people who say

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<v Speaker 1>this is important to us. And frankly, I wish I

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<v Speaker 1>had a magic wand for it, but I don't. But

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<v Speaker 1>I do think that we have to start educating, little

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<v Speaker 1>by little the importance of early childhood education as a

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<v Speaker 1>precursor and a foundation eliminating the thirty million word gap.

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<v Speaker 1>We need to focus. We need to force more resources

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<v Speaker 1>into the zero to five states, which is going to

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<v Speaker 1>help on the long term solution and on the short

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<v Speaker 1>term solution. We really need to tackle the third grade

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<v Speaker 1>reading deficits that we have because up the third grade

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<v Speaker 1>you're learning to read. The third grade on you're reading

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<v Speaker 1>to learn, So obviously, if you haven't learned to read

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<v Speaker 1>very well, you're not gonna learn very well. But all

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<v Speaker 1>of this starts with conversations like this Carol and Paul

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<v Speaker 1>and and mobilizing people to understand how valuable what we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about really is. So I'm just thinking, um, sly,

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<v Speaker 1>all the things that we've talked about, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the children who are living in poverty and the disadvantages,

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<v Speaker 1>and the importance of making sure that everybody gets a

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<v Speaker 1>good education, because it really makes a difference, you know,

0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:18.760
<v Speaker 1>in your lives or in their lives. And I do

0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:23.160
<v Speaker 1>wonder how you think about the vote in November and

0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:26.480
<v Speaker 1>the outcome of that vote, and how that could possibly

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:32.360
<v Speaker 1>change those things. Well, I think that there is a

0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:35.199
<v Speaker 1>lot of sentiment that the vote is being driven by

0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:39.120
<v Speaker 1>whether or not you like Donald Trump. Um And frankly,

0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:41.680
<v Speaker 1>whether or not you like Donald Trump may be good

0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:45.320
<v Speaker 1>for the vote in this particular instance, may affect change,

0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:47.480
<v Speaker 1>but at the end of the day, that's gonna wear

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:49.920
<v Speaker 1>off pretty quick and people are gonna have to stand

0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:53.000
<v Speaker 1>on their own merits. So the question then becomes, what

0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:57.320
<v Speaker 1>are you doing for me? Okay? Uh? Winston Fisher and

0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:00.440
<v Speaker 1>I when we wrote the agenda, we deliberately wanted to

0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:04.120
<v Speaker 1>point out that people should add that people in leadership

0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:07.360
<v Speaker 1>should say, here's what we are doing for you. Uh,

0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.120
<v Speaker 1>and maybe if they can internalize that, they will stop

0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.240
<v Speaker 1>doing so much for themselves and do more for you.

0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:15.560
<v Speaker 1>But at the end of the day, Uh, what we

0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 1>need is a new approach to leadership. We need a

0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:23.640
<v Speaker 1>better and different coalition between business and government. We need

0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:26.880
<v Speaker 1>more P three's. Here's an example of a P three possibility.

0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:31.840
<v Speaker 1>One P three possibility to address the childcare situation would

0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:34.839
<v Speaker 1>probably be more on the local level, but with businesses,

0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:38.400
<v Speaker 1>where government and local businesses would enter into a P

0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:42.680
<v Speaker 1>three arrangement with businesses so that those businesses engaged would

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:46.280
<v Speaker 1>have access to high quality pre K with some government helps, subsidies,

0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:49.079
<v Speaker 1>tax credits, whatever the case may be, so that then

0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:52.520
<v Speaker 1>there could be some quality control. Another opportunity for P

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:57.920
<v Speaker 1>three's would be to have something like what Anthony Fox

0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:01.680
<v Speaker 1>did with his transportation grant lenge grant. It was about

0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:06.360
<v Speaker 1>access to broadband and transportation, et cetera. But have challenge

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:08.880
<v Speaker 1>brands so that you could have some incubators of some

0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:13.720
<v Speaker 1>ideas incubators. For example, on the issue of early childhood education,

0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:18.400
<v Speaker 1>how's business and government combined their efforts and resources to

0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:22.320
<v Speaker 1>improve our quality pre case system. That's former Kansas City

0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:25.680
<v Speaker 1>Mayor Slide James his book The Opportunity Agenda, Bold Democratic

0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:27.480
<v Speaker 1>plan to grow the middle class. Do you want to

0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:30.480
<v Speaker 1>point out he's graduate of the Bloomberg Harvard City Leadership

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:35.280
<v Speaker 1>Initiative education program sponsored by Bloomberg Philanthropies. You're listening to

0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:38.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. Still to come. She's got an agenda too,

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.720
<v Speaker 1>and that's to get Broadway reopened in New York City safely.

0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:44.840
<v Speaker 1>Charlotte St. Martin, president of the Broadway League, is coming

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:51.360
<v Speaker 1>up next. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week

0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:54.760
<v Speaker 1>with Garrol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. We're bringing you some

0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.720
<v Speaker 1>of the highlights of our daily radio broadcast and podcast,

0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:00.240
<v Speaker 1>and that included someone we've checked in with several times

0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:03.240
<v Speaker 1>during the shutdown in New York City. This time around,

0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:05.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Paul Sweeney and I caught up with her on

0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:07.720
<v Speaker 1>the heels of news that there would be no Broadway

0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:12.400
<v Speaker 1>theater until at least June. Here's Charlotte St. Martin. She's

0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:15.680
<v Speaker 1>President of the Broadway League. Many things to bring everyone

0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:17.960
<v Speaker 1>back when it comes to the theater industry, and to

0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:21.480
<v Speaker 1>do it safely, and that included figuring out testing the

0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:26.240
<v Speaker 1>fact that there hasn't been uh, a verified rapid test

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.520
<v Speaker 1>that is secure, which we have to have for the

0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:34.840
<v Speaker 1>cast and crew until the virus is gone. And that

0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:38.000
<v Speaker 1>doesn't even address the audience, which we also have to

0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:41.400
<v Speaker 1>give the right products for the audience. And with no

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.800
<v Speaker 1>news about that now, we just felt that we had

0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:49.600
<v Speaker 1>to be as open and transparent as possible with the

0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:53.040
<v Speaker 1>people that worked for Broadway, work on Broadway and our

0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:58.120
<v Speaker 1>theater goers. So many of those nine thousand employees that

0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:01.680
<v Speaker 1>depend on Broadway to work need to have as much

0:16:01.760 --> 0:16:05.720
<v Speaker 1>advanced notice now as possible so that they can try

0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:10.800
<v Speaker 1>to find other work. Since the extension is so far out, Charlotte,

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:14.280
<v Speaker 1>what do we know about the economic impact to date

0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:19.040
<v Speaker 1>on those employees on the theater owners? I think about

0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:22.080
<v Speaker 1>these beautiful theaters in Midtown Manhattan on the West Side,

0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 1>just sitting idle. Talk to us about some of the

0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:29.040
<v Speaker 1>economic impacts you're hearing about. Well, for our last full season,

0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:33.920
<v Speaker 1>the loss in ticket sales was almost two billion dollars

0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:36.920
<v Speaker 1>and the loss to the City of New York was

0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 1>almost fifteen billion dollars. It's uh, everyone loses with this,

0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:46.560
<v Speaker 1>and it's hard when you're talking billions to put a

0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.640
<v Speaker 1>face to it, but in fact, you know, the face

0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:54.160
<v Speaker 1>has ninety seven thousand faces that are unable to collect

0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:58.000
<v Speaker 1>a paycheck. And you know, most of the organizations I

0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:01.960
<v Speaker 1>know have reduced their half as much as they can

0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.520
<v Speaker 1>so that they can reopen when we have the opportunity

0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:09.679
<v Speaker 1>to reopen. So it's it's not good news anyway you

0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.000
<v Speaker 1>look at it. I know I was thinking about and

0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:14.200
<v Speaker 1>I guess I was reading something to you know, just

0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:17.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you think about people who go to theater,

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:18.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they're all ages, but there's a lot of

0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:22.040
<v Speaker 1>older theater goers, you know, lack of tours that are

0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.520
<v Speaker 1>coming into the country now, and then you've got old

0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:27.920
<v Speaker 1>theaters where the idea of trying to do social distancing

0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.800
<v Speaker 1>it's just you can't do it, you guys have It's

0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:35.800
<v Speaker 1>just really difficult on so many different angles. That's absolutely right.

0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:38.879
<v Speaker 1>And while you know the average age of our audience

0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:43.480
<v Speaker 1>is forty two point three, I think there's still certainly

0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:47.080
<v Speaker 1>a large percentage over that age and a large percentage

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:51.200
<v Speaker 1>under that age. And these are hundred year old grandams

0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:55.280
<v Speaker 1>in many cases our theaters. And you know, as someone

0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:57.760
<v Speaker 1>said to me, have you ever watched a one minute

0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:01.359
<v Speaker 1>costume change with three people making that change in the

0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:04.240
<v Speaker 1>in the space the size of a phone booth. So

0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:09.159
<v Speaker 1>you know that social distancing justice at work, Charlotte. Are

0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:12.719
<v Speaker 1>there any parts of the world where live theater has

0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:16.520
<v Speaker 1>come back. I'm thinking about you know, London or other

0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:19.320
<v Speaker 1>Paris or other major markets where it's come back. Or

0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:22.879
<v Speaker 1>is this kind of a universal thing? Now? This is universal?

0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:28.880
<v Speaker 1>You have Korea is the only location that I'm aware

0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:33.840
<v Speaker 1>of that has reopened without social distancing. And it's a

0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:38.000
<v Speaker 1>brand new theater with giant lobbies and giant stages and

0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:42.879
<v Speaker 1>big spaces. And uh, they have a culture of wearing

0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.199
<v Speaker 1>masks and and behave much better than a lot of

0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:50.439
<v Speaker 1>our lovely Americans who can't seem to put those masks on.

0:18:51.200 --> 0:18:54.800
<v Speaker 1>So um, for the most part, you have a few

0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:59.879
<v Speaker 1>venues that are trying social distancing, and it's just you

0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:03.080
<v Speaker 1>can't financially make it work. In New York City, we

0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:08.560
<v Speaker 1>have seventeen union contracts that UM require our theaters to

0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 1>be over full just to return on investment for the

0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:16.199
<v Speaker 1>people who make theater. And if we don't return, we

0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:20.159
<v Speaker 1>don't get theater. So uh, it's it's still we have

0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:24.320
<v Speaker 1>not found a solution to socially distanced in a safe way.

0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:27.280
<v Speaker 1>Did you say they have to be nine full No,

0:19:27.440 --> 0:19:31.600
<v Speaker 1>I said ninety. Okay, yeah, no, because I remember us

0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:33.520
<v Speaker 1>talking in the past and it was this whole idea

0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:35.240
<v Speaker 1>of you know, could you do something virtual or could

0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:38.320
<v Speaker 1>you do something partial? But it's just the mathematics just

0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:42.240
<v Speaker 1>don't exist, Charlotte, They don't, and we wish it did.

0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:47.439
<v Speaker 1>But you know, everybody, the besides the people working, I

0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:52.119
<v Speaker 1>mean the creatives, the theater owners, the producers, everything, the

0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:55.560
<v Speaker 1>model would have to change, and I think we're not

0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:59.040
<v Speaker 1>ready to do that just yet, because we certainly haven't.

0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.480
<v Speaker 1>And when you talk to you know, when you talk

0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:06.000
<v Speaker 1>to theatergoers, part of what the joy of going to

0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:09.120
<v Speaker 1>theater is the shared emotion that people have. There will

0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:13.120
<v Speaker 1>be a lot of changes as we move forward. That's

0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:15.600
<v Speaker 1>Charlotte St. Martin, who is president of the Broadway League.

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:17.760
<v Speaker 1>And yet lots of change, is no doubt about it.

0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:20.040
<v Speaker 1>And listen, the way back is not going to be easy.

0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:21.399
<v Speaker 1>And of course she's not going to be able to

0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:24.760
<v Speaker 1>get all of the shows that were on Broadway back

0:20:24.840 --> 0:20:26.879
<v Speaker 1>up really quickly. It's going to take a little bit

0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:30.560
<v Speaker 1>of time. But listen, employees who depend on work in Broadway.

0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:33.199
<v Speaker 1>We know this is an important industry, certainly to New

0:20:33.320 --> 0:20:36.560
<v Speaker 1>York City. All right, still to come. Theater is still shut,

0:20:36.640 --> 0:20:40.720
<v Speaker 1>but retail shopping certainly not up next Amazon's domination. I

0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:42.879
<v Speaker 1>see lots of opportunity for Amazon, certainly to grow in

0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:45.719
<v Speaker 1>this country. Everything they've done in this country with regards

0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:48.640
<v Speaker 1>to shopping, they're replicating all over the world. We'll hear

0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:54.320
<v Speaker 1>from a former Amazon insider. This is Bloomberg. This is

0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:59.199
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Garrol Massier from Bloomberg Radio. We'll

0:20:59.240 --> 0:21:01.199
<v Speaker 1>not sure if you know ist or more likely you

0:21:01.280 --> 0:21:04.280
<v Speaker 1>did and probably actually did some shopping on Amazon Prime Day,

0:21:04.280 --> 0:21:06.879
<v Speaker 1>which was two days this week. The event expected to

0:21:06.880 --> 0:21:09.640
<v Speaker 1>give the world's largest e commerce company an early advantage

0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:12.760
<v Speaker 1>of our brick and mortar rivals ahead of Black Friday.

0:21:12.840 --> 0:21:15.959
<v Speaker 1>James Thompson, he's partnered by Box Experts as a managed

0:21:15.960 --> 0:21:20.320
<v Speaker 1>services agency supporting brands selling online. He's also former business

0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:23.520
<v Speaker 1>head of Amazon Services. He shared some thoughts with Bloomberg's

0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:26.560
<v Speaker 1>Paul Sweene and me and Amazon's growing dominant. But we

0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:30.760
<v Speaker 1>started with a question, are we already holiday shopping? I'm

0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:34.200
<v Speaker 1>fascinated with this whole preconceived notion that somehow this is

0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:37.200
<v Speaker 1>the beginning of the holiday shopping season. And the reason,

0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:40.400
<v Speaker 1>the reason a little confounded by this is typically when

0:21:40.440 --> 0:21:42.840
<v Speaker 1>people buy things on Amazon, if they're going to buy

0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:45.960
<v Speaker 1>them for gifts, they send it directly to whoever they're

0:21:45.960 --> 0:21:49.119
<v Speaker 1>gifting it too. And so I ask you, would you

0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:51.159
<v Speaker 1>be buying Christmas presents right now in the middle of

0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:52.880
<v Speaker 1>October and sending it to people two and a half

0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:56.719
<v Speaker 1>months early. No, you know, the the application here is

0:21:57.040 --> 0:21:59.760
<v Speaker 1>people are spending money on themselves. They're not spending money

0:21:59.800 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 1>on other people. At least that's my hypothesis. And it'll

0:22:03.600 --> 0:22:06.200
<v Speaker 1>be interesting to see what happens when we get to

0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:09.439
<v Speaker 1>end in November, when the normal start of the holiday

0:22:09.480 --> 0:22:12.600
<v Speaker 1>season kicks in. But right now we're seeing people buying

0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:17.360
<v Speaker 1>stuff that they're they're they're enjoying themselves. So I guess

0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:19.399
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of disposal income out there because the

0:22:19.520 --> 0:22:22.359
<v Speaker 1>sales are absolutely through the roof, even more than we

0:22:22.400 --> 0:22:26.240
<v Speaker 1>expected for Prime Day. So, James, as we think about

0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:28.800
<v Speaker 1>this pandemic, it's impact is so many facets of so

0:22:28.840 --> 0:22:32.640
<v Speaker 1>many people's lives, daily lives, and one of that is retail.

0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:35.560
<v Speaker 1>One of those is retail give us your sense of

0:22:35.760 --> 0:22:40.120
<v Speaker 1>to kind of how this this move towards e commerce

0:22:40.560 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 1>is accelerating here during this pandemic. If so, and then

0:22:43.960 --> 0:22:48.680
<v Speaker 1>how permanent you think that might be. So. Obviously, when

0:22:48.680 --> 0:22:53.080
<v Speaker 1>everyone started quarantining at home, that there were a few

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:56.760
<v Speaker 1>few other options for buying other than going online. And

0:22:57.000 --> 0:22:59.680
<v Speaker 1>one of the interesting aspects of what happened in March

0:22:59.720 --> 0:23:01.399
<v Speaker 1>and a prill is that a lot of people not

0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:05.360
<v Speaker 1>only moved more dollars online, but they started buying products

0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:08.520
<v Speaker 1>that they had never before gone searching for online. So

0:23:08.560 --> 0:23:10.920
<v Speaker 1>many of us were buying grocery products that you know,

0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:12.960
<v Speaker 1>we were used to win the grocery store and now

0:23:12.960 --> 0:23:16.000
<v Speaker 1>we're stuck having to look online. And if you if

0:23:16.000 --> 0:23:18.800
<v Speaker 1>you did a curbside pickup or you had groceries delivered

0:23:18.800 --> 0:23:20.600
<v Speaker 1>to you, you know, for some people that was a

0:23:20.720 --> 0:23:24.320
<v Speaker 1>very good, good experience, and they're saying, gosh, I didn't

0:23:24.320 --> 0:23:26.199
<v Speaker 1>realize my life could be so easy. I should have

0:23:26.240 --> 0:23:29.200
<v Speaker 1>been doing this a long time ago. Likewise, there are

0:23:29.400 --> 0:23:33.800
<v Speaker 1>companies that obviously we're well positioned to sell online, and

0:23:33.840 --> 0:23:36.400
<v Speaker 1>there were lots of retailers that were not well positioned

0:23:36.400 --> 0:23:38.480
<v Speaker 1>at all, and so trying to play catch up and

0:23:38.520 --> 0:23:41.080
<v Speaker 1>build yourself a website, figure out how to get logistics

0:23:41.080 --> 0:23:44.760
<v Speaker 1>in place to deliver packages. That's really hard. And as

0:23:44.800 --> 0:23:47.000
<v Speaker 1>I think about what's going to happen here later in

0:23:47.080 --> 0:23:50.240
<v Speaker 1>Q four, some of the retailers who still won't have

0:23:50.480 --> 0:23:54.000
<v Speaker 1>enough stores open to generate meaningful foot traffic, they're gonna

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:57.160
<v Speaker 1>have to rely on their their websites as to drive traffic.

0:23:57.240 --> 0:24:01.080
<v Speaker 1>And quite frankly, it's one thing to sell your volume

0:24:01.119 --> 0:24:03.760
<v Speaker 1>through an online site, but what if your volume now

0:24:03.800 --> 0:24:07.920
<v Speaker 1>has to go online and you don't have good inventory software,

0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:10.199
<v Speaker 1>and customers are saying, do you or don't you have

0:24:10.280 --> 0:24:13.679
<v Speaker 1>this product? Can you get me this product quickly? One

0:24:13.680 --> 0:24:15.760
<v Speaker 1>of the things that we're gonna see I suspect in

0:24:15.800 --> 0:24:17.640
<v Speaker 1>the next six or seven weeks as we move into

0:24:17.720 --> 0:24:22.280
<v Speaker 1>mid December, everybody except for Amazon is relying on UPS

0:24:22.320 --> 0:24:25.040
<v Speaker 1>and FedEx and the postal service to get packages delivered.

0:24:25.560 --> 0:24:28.479
<v Speaker 1>Amazon owns last mile delivery for two thirds of its

0:24:28.520 --> 0:24:32.200
<v Speaker 1>own packages, so their ability to say to customers, we're

0:24:32.240 --> 0:24:35.680
<v Speaker 1>comfortable that these products are actually gonna arrive on time

0:24:35.720 --> 0:24:38.480
<v Speaker 1>when you order them on December twenty, You're gonna get

0:24:38.520 --> 0:24:41.760
<v Speaker 1>them by nine o'clock at night on decem What about

0:24:41.760 --> 0:24:44.880
<v Speaker 1>everybody else who relies on you ups and FedEx. It's

0:24:44.880 --> 0:24:47.000
<v Speaker 1>gonna be interesting to see how the big carriers are

0:24:47.040 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 1>able to support this crushing level of demand for online

0:24:51.080 --> 0:24:54.959
<v Speaker 1>order fulfillment. So it's interesting one of the things that

0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:58.119
<v Speaker 1>James is just talking about, You know, can people coming

0:24:58.119 --> 0:25:01.400
<v Speaker 1>onto the Amazon platform or every it's so crowded, there's

0:25:01.440 --> 0:25:05.160
<v Speaker 1>so much availability, there's so many different brands competing against

0:25:05.160 --> 0:25:08.240
<v Speaker 1>in effect Amazon, some of some of their brands. How

0:25:08.240 --> 0:25:11.639
<v Speaker 1>do you talk how do you consultant and explain to

0:25:11.640 --> 0:25:15.520
<v Speaker 1>your clients what's the best way to compete there? At

0:25:15.520 --> 0:25:17.399
<v Speaker 1>the end of the day that there are some formulaic

0:25:17.440 --> 0:25:20.520
<v Speaker 1>things that every company selling on Amazon needs to do.

0:25:20.560 --> 0:25:23.600
<v Speaker 1>You need to have the very best listings, meaning you've

0:25:23.640 --> 0:25:25.600
<v Speaker 1>got to have the right images, you've got to have video,

0:25:25.640 --> 0:25:28.080
<v Speaker 1>you've got to have high quality content that helps answer

0:25:28.080 --> 0:25:32.480
<v Speaker 1>customers questions. But that's basic black walking and tackling. Unfortunately,

0:25:32.640 --> 0:25:35.000
<v Speaker 1>lots of companies selling on Amazon don't do a particularly

0:25:35.080 --> 0:25:38.280
<v Speaker 1>good job there. There are questions around how do you

0:25:38.320 --> 0:25:41.760
<v Speaker 1>make sure you stay in stock? Amazon penalizes products that

0:25:42.200 --> 0:25:44.320
<v Speaker 1>are in stock out of stock, in stock out of stock,

0:25:44.600 --> 0:25:46.960
<v Speaker 1>so you've got to remain in stock and be in

0:25:46.960 --> 0:25:51.159
<v Speaker 1>a position where customers can consistently find your product. And

0:25:51.200 --> 0:25:54.120
<v Speaker 1>then the big catch all here is Amazon says, if

0:25:54.160 --> 0:25:57.399
<v Speaker 1>your products are Prime eligible, we're gonna reward you with

0:25:57.640 --> 0:26:02.679
<v Speaker 1>better visibility for customers. And so, uh, you know Amazon Prime.

0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:05.040
<v Speaker 1>Some people know that as FBA, some people know that

0:26:05.119 --> 0:26:08.520
<v Speaker 1>as buying your Prime membership. But those are the products

0:26:08.560 --> 0:26:11.200
<v Speaker 1>that are presented to consumers first and foremost on Amazon

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:13.840
<v Speaker 1>when you go looking for products. If I go searching

0:26:13.880 --> 0:26:17.080
<v Speaker 1>for men's running shoes, I'm going to see all the

0:26:17.080 --> 0:26:20.679
<v Speaker 1>Prime eligible products first because I'm a Prime customer and

0:26:20.680 --> 0:26:22.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm playing in and Amazon says I want to show

0:26:22.800 --> 0:26:26.080
<v Speaker 1>you Prime eligible offers. There are too many companies on

0:26:26.119 --> 0:26:29.120
<v Speaker 1>Amazon today who have said, let me dip my toe

0:26:29.160 --> 0:26:32.520
<v Speaker 1>into selling on Amazon. I'm just gonna fulfill a few

0:26:32.600 --> 0:26:36.040
<v Speaker 1>orders as they come in. Well, it's a self fulfilling prophecy.

0:26:36.400 --> 0:26:39.880
<v Speaker 1>You're irrelevant unless you're Prime ilig. It's like unbelievable. I've

0:26:39.880 --> 0:26:41.680
<v Speaker 1>done it myself. I think I've even paid a little

0:26:41.720 --> 0:26:43.479
<v Speaker 1>bit more because I know it's Prime and I'm going

0:26:43.520 --> 0:26:45.560
<v Speaker 1>to get it quickly and it's gonna be easy. It's

0:26:45.560 --> 0:26:47.960
<v Speaker 1>just pretty fascinating. I gotta tell you, I'm listening to

0:26:48.040 --> 0:26:50.880
<v Speaker 1>you James talk and I'm just thinking, where does Amazon

0:26:50.960 --> 0:26:53.440
<v Speaker 1>go from here? You know, where's Amazon in your view?

0:26:53.960 --> 0:26:56.320
<v Speaker 1>You know, you know this company so well, you see

0:26:56.359 --> 0:26:58.679
<v Speaker 1>their domination. And I think that's a fair word to

0:26:58.760 --> 0:27:01.800
<v Speaker 1>say when it comes to retail, where do they go

0:27:02.000 --> 0:27:04.159
<v Speaker 1>in the next two years, in the next five years?

0:27:06.640 --> 0:27:09.800
<v Speaker 1>The reality is Amazon starts by saying, how do we

0:27:09.880 --> 0:27:12.080
<v Speaker 1>do more for customers? How do we focus on what

0:27:12.160 --> 0:27:15.520
<v Speaker 1>customers want? And for twenty years they've been looking at

0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:18.439
<v Speaker 1>how do we deliver as much selection as quickly as

0:27:18.480 --> 0:27:22.399
<v Speaker 1>possible at low prices. And the reality is, as you

0:27:22.440 --> 0:27:25.320
<v Speaker 1>grow your business and it becomes five times bigger, fifty

0:27:25.320 --> 0:27:27.800
<v Speaker 1>times bigger, five hundred times bigger, it gets harder and

0:27:27.840 --> 0:27:30.400
<v Speaker 1>harder for Amazon to do that. And yet they continue

0:27:30.440 --> 0:27:33.440
<v Speaker 1>to step up and do that. And this year they've

0:27:33.480 --> 0:27:37.320
<v Speaker 1>demonstrated that they're not just a marketplace, they're a massive

0:27:37.359 --> 0:27:41.320
<v Speaker 1>logistics powerhouse. I mean they hired a hundred seventy five

0:27:41.720 --> 0:27:45.440
<v Speaker 1>people in order to do last mile delivery of your packages.

0:27:45.920 --> 0:27:47.680
<v Speaker 1>That they are now at a place where they are

0:27:47.760 --> 0:27:51.840
<v Speaker 1>competing with FedEx and ups day to day for all

0:27:51.880 --> 0:27:55.400
<v Speaker 1>the most profitable routes. And that's that's pretty staring when

0:27:55.400 --> 0:27:58.159
<v Speaker 1>you think of Amazon as being a shopping destination, but

0:27:58.280 --> 0:28:01.760
<v Speaker 1>yet they support all these other things behind the scenes

0:28:01.800 --> 0:28:05.320
<v Speaker 1>that consumers don't necessarily see, but are critical to keeping

0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:08.639
<v Speaker 1>the core business of a shopping site to keep that running.

0:28:08.680 --> 0:28:11.919
<v Speaker 1>So it's expensive to do that. It's really expensive to

0:28:11.920 --> 0:28:15.760
<v Speaker 1>do that. It's expensive to do that, but it's actually

0:28:15.800 --> 0:28:17.919
<v Speaker 1>cheaper to do it yourself if you do it at

0:28:17.920 --> 0:28:20.399
<v Speaker 1>a scalable level than it is to wait around for

0:28:20.520 --> 0:28:22.600
<v Speaker 1>UPS and FedEx to figure out how to grow fast

0:28:22.680 --> 0:28:25.199
<v Speaker 1>enough to keep up with Amazon. And that's exactly what

0:28:25.280 --> 0:28:28.359
<v Speaker 1>we saw when Covid kicked in in March is the

0:28:28.440 --> 0:28:31.359
<v Speaker 1>UPS is and FedEx is they can't keep up with

0:28:31.440 --> 0:28:34.959
<v Speaker 1>the increase in demand that Amazon's experiencing. And quite frankly,

0:28:35.040 --> 0:28:39.200
<v Speaker 1>Amazon doesn't have to make any money with their fulfillment capabilities.

0:28:39.240 --> 0:28:40.600
<v Speaker 1>They just have to be able to make sure the

0:28:40.640 --> 0:28:43.280
<v Speaker 1>pipe is there and they can push packages through the pipe.

0:28:43.680 --> 0:28:46.080
<v Speaker 1>And that's one of the beautiful things about Amazon. You know,

0:28:46.080 --> 0:28:48.840
<v Speaker 1>the same thing happened when they built out their AWS capability.

0:28:49.080 --> 0:28:51.400
<v Speaker 1>That wasn't meant to be a profitable business. It was

0:28:51.440 --> 0:28:54.880
<v Speaker 1>meant to be back end services that would support huge

0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:58.480
<v Speaker 1>numbers of customers flow flocking to the site. You know,

0:28:58.560 --> 0:29:02.480
<v Speaker 1>on Black Friday, we to have essentially infinite capacity. Amazon said,

0:29:02.520 --> 0:29:05.120
<v Speaker 1>we'll build it ourselves, and then he discovered, oh, we

0:29:05.160 --> 0:29:07.960
<v Speaker 1>can now sell excess capacity to someone else. They're gonna

0:29:07.960 --> 0:29:10.960
<v Speaker 1>do the same thing with logistics. Eventually they're gonna be

0:29:10.960 --> 0:29:12.520
<v Speaker 1>in a place here in the next year or two

0:29:12.960 --> 0:29:18.120
<v Speaker 1>to start offering more shipping services to retailers who sell

0:29:18.240 --> 0:29:21.240
<v Speaker 1>packages to people, not just on the Amazon site. That

0:29:21.360 --> 0:29:24.920
<v Speaker 1>that's a nice tidy business. We know Amazon has gotten

0:29:25.000 --> 0:29:29.240
<v Speaker 1>into the healthcare business starting with how do you build

0:29:29.280 --> 0:29:34.640
<v Speaker 1>out better, better options for Amazon employees. But the reality

0:29:34.720 --> 0:29:37.600
<v Speaker 1>is if Amazon gets this figured out, that's another trillion

0:29:37.600 --> 0:29:39.960
<v Speaker 1>dollar business where Amazon would say I'd like a slice

0:29:39.960 --> 0:29:43.240
<v Speaker 1>of the bi please. So I see lots of opportunity

0:29:43.280 --> 0:29:45.960
<v Speaker 1>for Amazon, certainly to grow in this country. But everything

0:29:45.960 --> 0:29:48.600
<v Speaker 1>they've done in this country with regards to shopping, they're

0:29:48.640 --> 0:29:51.800
<v Speaker 1>replicating all over the world. They've got over fifteen marketplaces

0:29:51.840 --> 0:29:54.880
<v Speaker 1>now different countries they're moving into where they're saying, we

0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:57.240
<v Speaker 1>can do the same thing and help local consumers in

0:29:57.240 --> 0:30:00.600
<v Speaker 1>these other countries get huge, huge amounts of election at

0:30:00.600 --> 0:30:05.080
<v Speaker 1>low prices, delivered quickly. I did say, don't say domination,

0:30:05.880 --> 0:30:08.440
<v Speaker 1>and the legal scholars, you know, the anti wrestlers gears

0:30:08.480 --> 0:30:12.320
<v Speaker 1>perked up. So it's interesting you want to think, and

0:30:12.360 --> 0:30:14.240
<v Speaker 1>you point out that it's expensive, but I'll also point

0:30:14.240 --> 0:30:16.960
<v Speaker 1>out they've got seventy billion dollars of cash on the

0:30:16.960 --> 0:30:19.800
<v Speaker 1>balance sheet, forty billion dollars of free cash flow, so

0:30:19.840 --> 0:30:22.840
<v Speaker 1>I guess they can afford it, um James. One business

0:30:22.880 --> 0:30:26.480
<v Speaker 1>where they haven't been so successful is the grocery business.

0:30:26.840 --> 0:30:29.080
<v Speaker 1>Is that just a sideshow for them? Or do you

0:30:29.120 --> 0:30:33.000
<v Speaker 1>think that they want to get bigger, better, stronger in

0:30:33.040 --> 0:30:37.120
<v Speaker 1>that retail space. They need to get better. And I'll

0:30:37.120 --> 0:30:40.280
<v Speaker 1>tell you why. If you look at your wallet, the

0:30:40.360 --> 0:30:43.520
<v Speaker 1>share of your wallet that goes towards grocery is a

0:30:43.560 --> 0:30:47.400
<v Speaker 1>sizeable chunk of your spend. And it's also one of

0:30:47.400 --> 0:30:50.200
<v Speaker 1>those purchases you make at least once or twice a week.

0:30:50.600 --> 0:30:52.840
<v Speaker 1>You're having to think about where do I go to

0:30:52.920 --> 0:30:55.240
<v Speaker 1>buy my groceries. Amazon wants to be in a position

0:30:55.280 --> 0:30:58.640
<v Speaker 1>where consumers say, I need to buy something, let me

0:30:59.000 --> 0:31:02.040
<v Speaker 1>pick Amazon first is my channel, and let's see what

0:31:02.080 --> 0:31:06.000
<v Speaker 1>they have. If Amazon can get enough grocery selection in

0:31:06.080 --> 0:31:10.080
<v Speaker 1>place available for fast delivery. Then Amazon will be able

0:31:10.080 --> 0:31:12.480
<v Speaker 1>to get consumers to spend that part of their wallet

0:31:12.680 --> 0:31:15.600
<v Speaker 1>on Amazon. And that's too, maybe two or three times

0:31:15.600 --> 0:31:18.680
<v Speaker 1>a week, the consumers again are reminded, hey, Amazon is

0:31:18.720 --> 0:31:20.360
<v Speaker 1>the place I need to go to buy everything else

0:31:20.400 --> 0:31:23.240
<v Speaker 1>as well. So at the end of the day, grocery

0:31:23.280 --> 0:31:25.560
<v Speaker 1>may not be a very profitable business for Amazon in

0:31:25.640 --> 0:31:28.400
<v Speaker 1>and of itself, but it's a constant reminder, and there's

0:31:28.400 --> 0:31:31.120
<v Speaker 1>a constant ad for consumers to come back to buy

0:31:31.120 --> 0:31:33.880
<v Speaker 1>everything else that may make Amazon more money. And we

0:31:33.960 --> 0:31:37.080
<v Speaker 1>certainly are heading to Amazon for just about everything else

0:31:37.120 --> 0:31:39.840
<v Speaker 1>certainly feels that way. Or that's James Thompson, partner at

0:31:39.840 --> 0:31:43.360
<v Speaker 1>Buy Box Experts and former business head of Amazon Services.

0:31:43.720 --> 0:31:45.720
<v Speaker 1>That wraps up our first hour of the weekend edition

0:31:45.720 --> 0:31:48.640
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. I'm Carol Masser

0:31:49.000 --> 0:31:52.280
<v Speaker 1>morehead in our next hour, including the one billion dollar

0:31:52.400 --> 0:31:56.080
<v Speaker 1>idea behind this year's Nobel Prize in Economics. Plus we'll

0:31:56.120 --> 0:31:59.040
<v Speaker 1>wrap up with some lighter fair millennials shaping the beverage

0:31:59.040 --> 0:32:02.480
<v Speaker 1>industry and a professional poker player on making better choices.

0:32:02.800 --> 0:32:11.280
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business week with Garrol

0:32:11.320 --> 0:32:15.120
<v Speaker 1>Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Hi, i am Carol Masser. Along

0:32:15.160 --> 0:32:17.600
<v Speaker 1>with Bloomberg's Paul Sweeney, plenty ahead for you in this

0:32:17.640 --> 0:32:20.120
<v Speaker 1>hour of the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week. Our

0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:23.000
<v Speaker 1>second hour here and we talked a lot about working

0:32:23.040 --> 0:32:26.600
<v Speaker 1>from home, working remotely this week on our daily radio show,

0:32:26.640 --> 0:32:29.920
<v Speaker 1>including catching out with Stoke Talent CEO Shahar Rez. We

0:32:30.040 --> 0:32:34.640
<v Speaker 1>talked about shadow hr and properly managing freelancers working remotely.

0:32:34.960 --> 0:32:36.560
<v Speaker 1>We also talked a lot about the growth in the

0:32:36.640 --> 0:32:41.400
<v Speaker 1>gig economy. Plus pro poker player Annie duke Man Poker

0:32:41.520 --> 0:32:44.000
<v Speaker 1>is definitely in the family there. She's got a new

0:32:44.040 --> 0:32:47.720
<v Speaker 1>book out, How to Decide Simple Tools for making Better Choices.

0:32:48.040 --> 0:32:50.040
<v Speaker 1>We begin this hour, though, with a walk around the

0:32:50.080 --> 0:32:52.680
<v Speaker 1>block with our own Peter Coy and a trifecta of

0:32:52.760 --> 0:32:55.800
<v Speaker 1>his stories, as only Bloomberg Business Week Economics editor Peter

0:32:55.920 --> 0:32:59.160
<v Speaker 1>Koy can do. We talked about the President and economics,

0:32:59.200 --> 0:33:01.440
<v Speaker 1>We talked about the said, and we also talked about

0:33:01.440 --> 0:33:04.480
<v Speaker 1>the Nobel Prize in Economics. Bloomberg's Paul Sweeney and I

0:33:04.480 --> 0:33:07.479
<v Speaker 1>got more from Peter and Bloomberg Business Week editor Joe Weber.

0:33:08.440 --> 0:33:10.680
<v Speaker 1>The story that he just had a quick take on

0:33:10.800 --> 0:33:15.000
<v Speaker 1>was actually Trump speaking to the country's economic club for

0:33:15.080 --> 0:33:17.440
<v Speaker 1>that I thought was actually kind of interesting. And Peter,

0:33:17.480 --> 0:33:21.640
<v Speaker 1>what what was your takeaway from from getting to watch that. Well,

0:33:21.680 --> 0:33:25.080
<v Speaker 1>it's not his typical audience. It's a bunch of rich people,

0:33:25.520 --> 0:33:29.240
<v Speaker 1>some of them richer than he is, um generally prosperous

0:33:29.320 --> 0:33:33.120
<v Speaker 1>business people who belonged to the economic clubs in Washington,

0:33:33.200 --> 0:33:39.040
<v Speaker 1>New York, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Florida, and so on. And he

0:33:39.240 --> 0:33:42.200
<v Speaker 1>didn't seem as comfortable with that audience as one might

0:33:42.240 --> 0:33:46.400
<v Speaker 1>expect since they're mostly one per centers who generally agree

0:33:46.400 --> 0:33:50.280
<v Speaker 1>with the Republican agenda of tax cuts and the regulation.

0:33:51.040 --> 0:33:53.720
<v Speaker 1>There were times when he sounded even a bit defensive

0:33:53.800 --> 0:33:57.080
<v Speaker 1>and worried that he didn't have their support. He called

0:33:57.120 --> 0:34:02.200
<v Speaker 1>out internationalists, lobbyists, a drug company executives, all of them

0:34:02.240 --> 0:34:06.040
<v Speaker 1>we presume were part of his audience. Peter, what do

0:34:06.120 --> 0:34:11.960
<v Speaker 1>we know about the president's current standing um with big business,

0:34:12.120 --> 0:34:16.160
<v Speaker 1>with Wall Street, with folks who benefit from the Trump

0:34:16.160 --> 0:34:19.680
<v Speaker 1>tax cut. Well, we they liked the tax cut, Like

0:34:19.840 --> 0:34:24.440
<v Speaker 1>we've we've seen some critical, pretty critical comes coming up

0:34:24.480 --> 0:34:28.279
<v Speaker 1>from organizations like the Business Roundtable, which represents CEOs of

0:34:28.360 --> 0:34:31.839
<v Speaker 1>some of America's biggest companies, and very often CEOs don't

0:34:31.840 --> 0:34:35.920
<v Speaker 1>want to be on the line themselves criticizing any administration,

0:34:35.920 --> 0:34:40.040
<v Speaker 1>Republican or Democratic. They will sometimes hide behind the voice

0:34:40.239 --> 0:34:42.560
<v Speaker 1>of a round table like that so they can't be

0:34:42.840 --> 0:34:45.319
<v Speaker 1>sort of safety and numbers kind of thing. And some

0:34:45.400 --> 0:34:47.839
<v Speaker 1>of the statements from the business round table have been

0:34:48.760 --> 0:34:53.279
<v Speaker 1>fairly critical of the president and things like why can't

0:34:53.320 --> 0:34:57.080
<v Speaker 1>we get another round of stimulus done? So this was

0:34:57.360 --> 0:35:00.520
<v Speaker 1>this was interesting. It continued that thing, and like one

0:35:00.560 --> 0:35:02.319
<v Speaker 1>of the things he said was, Hey, I know some

0:35:02.400 --> 0:35:05.200
<v Speaker 1>of you out there Democrats, and I don't understand what

0:35:05.320 --> 0:35:07.680
<v Speaker 1>you're thinking. You know, some really bad things are going

0:35:07.680 --> 0:35:12.680
<v Speaker 1>to happen if Joe Biden gets elected. So, Peter, the

0:35:12.680 --> 0:35:15.719
<v Speaker 1>other story that you have in the current issue of

0:35:15.760 --> 0:35:18.000
<v Speaker 1>the magazine is is not about the president at all,

0:35:18.040 --> 0:35:21.120
<v Speaker 1>but sort of another elephant in the room, which is

0:35:21.120 --> 0:35:25.160
<v Speaker 1>the FED. And and I thought you had a sort

0:35:25.160 --> 0:35:27.759
<v Speaker 1>of a big idea. You spent some time thinking about it,

0:35:27.920 --> 0:35:32.840
<v Speaker 1>and it's ultimately about the FED being basically the most

0:35:33.040 --> 0:35:36.120
<v Speaker 1>dovish Fed in the history of the Fed. Can you

0:35:36.200 --> 0:35:40.000
<v Speaker 1>can you tell us more about how why why that matters?

0:35:40.000 --> 0:35:43.279
<v Speaker 1>So much right now. Just reminder, dovish means that you're

0:35:43.719 --> 0:35:48.520
<v Speaker 1>soft on inflation and more worried about unemployment, or the

0:35:48.560 --> 0:35:52.640
<v Speaker 1>hawk would be the opposite, And the FED traditionally was hawkish.

0:35:52.640 --> 0:35:56.000
<v Speaker 1>It was probably more hawkish than the President whoever was

0:35:56.040 --> 0:35:58.400
<v Speaker 1>in office of the time, or Congress, and it was

0:35:58.440 --> 0:36:00.759
<v Speaker 1>almost designed to be that way because you wanted to

0:36:00.760 --> 0:36:03.080
<v Speaker 1>have the central banker be the tough guy, you know,

0:36:03.160 --> 0:36:05.560
<v Speaker 1>the enforcer, the cop who would try to make sure

0:36:05.640 --> 0:36:10.800
<v Speaker 1>that the economy did not overheat and causing UH runaway inflation.

0:36:11.239 --> 0:36:14.000
<v Speaker 1>But now we're in the opposite circumstance where we're actually

0:36:14.040 --> 0:36:17.279
<v Speaker 1>worried about inflation being too low and the economy being

0:36:17.360 --> 0:36:23.160
<v Speaker 1>chronically weak, and the FED has moved around to being UH.

0:36:23.200 --> 0:36:25.919
<v Speaker 1>And it's not just because J. Powell is the chair

0:36:25.960 --> 0:36:28.400
<v Speaker 1>of the FED now. It was starting to happen under

0:36:28.840 --> 0:36:31.400
<v Speaker 1>Bernankey and yelling as well. But I think with the

0:36:31.400 --> 0:36:34.080
<v Speaker 1>actions of this past spring and response to the pandemic,

0:36:34.440 --> 0:36:37.600
<v Speaker 1>and then now with J. Paul jaw boning Congress to

0:36:37.640 --> 0:36:41.120
<v Speaker 1>do new stimulus and the interspace being at zero and

0:36:41.160 --> 0:36:44.200
<v Speaker 1>the new dovish language coming out of the FED in August,

0:36:44.400 --> 0:36:46.600
<v Speaker 1>it does seem as though it's the most dobbish FED

0:36:46.640 --> 0:36:50.440
<v Speaker 1>in a century, namely forever for the Fed. Well, and

0:36:50.480 --> 0:36:52.439
<v Speaker 1>it could work out, right you you kind of play

0:36:52.440 --> 0:36:55.200
<v Speaker 1>out the dream scenario, Peter. You know, if all this

0:36:55.520 --> 0:36:59.200
<v Speaker 1>messaging from the FED works, I mean, right, the economy improves,

0:36:59.280 --> 0:37:03.120
<v Speaker 1>workers get more money, consumers open up their wallets, um,

0:37:03.200 --> 0:37:06.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, and we all live happy life if it

0:37:06.360 --> 0:37:10.839
<v Speaker 1>all works out. Obviously, the optimistic scenario that the stimulus

0:37:10.880 --> 0:37:14.520
<v Speaker 1>works and inflation moves up to two which is the

0:37:14.520 --> 0:37:18.080
<v Speaker 1>Fed's goal, and maybe even goes a little above it.

0:37:18.160 --> 0:37:20.000
<v Speaker 1>That's the new thing that the FED is doing now.

0:37:20.000 --> 0:37:24.640
<v Speaker 1>It's saying you can actually even welcome inflation overshooting the

0:37:24.719 --> 0:37:28.320
<v Speaker 1>two percent target to make up for periods of undershooting.

0:37:28.800 --> 0:37:31.960
<v Speaker 1>And that's going to be very interesting to see, assuming

0:37:32.000 --> 0:37:34.200
<v Speaker 1>inflation does eventually get over above two percent, whether the

0:37:34.239 --> 0:37:37.960
<v Speaker 1>FED will be so willing to tolerate that after all? Well,

0:37:38.000 --> 0:37:40.120
<v Speaker 1>you do wonder, Peter, Right, is that potentially than the

0:37:40.120 --> 0:37:44.279
<v Speaker 1>Fed being irresponsible? Because right, thinkable is a funny word here,

0:37:44.280 --> 0:37:47.640
<v Speaker 1>because Paul Kirkman said that, you know, the FED almost

0:37:47.640 --> 0:37:49.760
<v Speaker 1>has to or any center bank almost has to commit

0:37:49.800 --> 0:37:54.319
<v Speaker 1>to being irresponsible, And by irresponsible he means, you know,

0:37:54.600 --> 0:37:57.359
<v Speaker 1>more willing to target inflation than a traditional center banker

0:37:57.400 --> 0:38:01.279
<v Speaker 1>would have been. Okay, Peter, We're gonna change gears yet

0:38:01.360 --> 0:38:06.280
<v Speaker 1>again because um Sunday night, we have some new economics

0:38:06.760 --> 0:38:10.480
<v Speaker 1>professors win the Nobel Prize. And you also, uh, I

0:38:10.520 --> 0:38:13.440
<v Speaker 1>thought scared up an interesting angle about that and and

0:38:13.520 --> 0:38:17.880
<v Speaker 1>sort of the work around auctions. How central uh of

0:38:17.880 --> 0:38:20.640
<v Speaker 1>a contribution have they made to sort of what has

0:38:20.760 --> 0:38:23.960
<v Speaker 1>unfolded in in auctions that we some we see in

0:38:24.000 --> 0:38:26.680
<v Speaker 1>our daily lives and others that we we may not

0:38:26.960 --> 0:38:31.040
<v Speaker 1>get to see as much. We don't necessarily see the

0:38:31.080 --> 0:38:35.960
<v Speaker 1>auctions that are happening for for example, radio spectrum, but

0:38:36.120 --> 0:38:38.600
<v Speaker 1>they affect our data lives in a big way. Some

0:38:38.719 --> 0:38:42.320
<v Speaker 1>interesting thoughts about the Nobel Prize winner in economics, That

0:38:42.360 --> 0:38:45.399
<v Speaker 1>of course was Bloomberg Business Week Economics editor Peter Coy

0:38:45.440 --> 0:38:48.040
<v Speaker 1>along with Bloomberg Business we editor Joel Weber. Check out

0:38:48.080 --> 0:38:50.880
<v Speaker 1>Peter's full stories. You can find them on the Bloomberg

0:38:50.960 --> 0:38:53.799
<v Speaker 1>terminal and of course at Bloomberg dot com. You're listening

0:38:53.840 --> 0:38:56.920
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week while on the subject of economics

0:38:57.280 --> 0:38:59.799
<v Speaker 1>that may increasingly include a world where workers are not

0:39:00.120 --> 0:39:03.359
<v Speaker 1>at the office and keeping track of them more on

0:39:03.360 --> 0:39:05.920
<v Speaker 1>that with the CEO of Stoke Talent. That's coming up next.

0:39:06.080 --> 0:39:12.200
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:39:12.239 --> 0:39:16.800
<v Speaker 1>Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Well. Bloomberg City Lab recently reported

0:39:16.800 --> 0:39:19.239
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic has been a grand global experiment and the

0:39:19.239 --> 0:39:22.400
<v Speaker 1>costs and benefits of a remote workforce. But long before

0:39:22.400 --> 0:39:26.000
<v Speaker 1>the coronavirus hit, many people worked from outside offices. We're

0:39:26.000 --> 0:39:28.640
<v Speaker 1>talking a lot about remote working and remote workers because

0:39:28.680 --> 0:39:31.480
<v Speaker 1>of COVID nine team. Shahara Rez is co founder and

0:39:31.520 --> 0:39:34.640
<v Speaker 1>CEO of Stoke Talent and on demand management platform for

0:39:34.680 --> 0:39:38.040
<v Speaker 1>companies to manage their on demand and non payroll workforce.

0:39:38.200 --> 0:39:40.480
<v Speaker 1>Do you joined Bloomberg's Paul Sweeney and me from Israel

0:39:40.560 --> 0:39:43.680
<v Speaker 1>about the workforce trend that was truth be told already

0:39:43.680 --> 0:39:46.200
<v Speaker 1>here wait before the panemic, were started saying this way

0:39:46.239 --> 0:39:50.799
<v Speaker 1>towards for no work even in already there in the

0:39:50.880 --> 0:39:53.960
<v Speaker 1>US without offices, which which sounds like a big number,

0:39:53.960 --> 0:39:56.839
<v Speaker 1>and we saw the grand heading that way, um, and

0:39:56.840 --> 0:39:59.640
<v Speaker 1>we're starting this is heading towards a place where most

0:39:59.680 --> 0:40:02.960
<v Speaker 1>company will have remote workforce and a significant portion of

0:40:03.000 --> 0:40:07.120
<v Speaker 1>the workers as independent contractors within six to ten years.

0:40:07.120 --> 0:40:13.680
<v Speaker 1>In fact, you're a labor statistics forecast by of U

0:40:13.760 --> 0:40:17.399
<v Speaker 1>S workforce will be free lancers in independent contact UM.

0:40:17.520 --> 0:40:20.440
<v Speaker 1>And then came the pandemic and kind of accelerated that

0:40:20.760 --> 0:40:23.440
<v Speaker 1>what we talked to take five years into five months.

0:40:24.160 --> 0:40:27.600
<v Speaker 1>And because everyone's now every more employee, everyone's working from home.

0:40:27.680 --> 0:40:31.440
<v Speaker 1>Doesn't matter if you're sitting in an office in California,

0:40:31.520 --> 0:40:34.160
<v Speaker 1>are sitting you know, in your home in Iowa. You

0:40:34.160 --> 0:40:36.440
<v Speaker 1>can do the same work. And so it opened a

0:40:36.480 --> 0:40:40.680
<v Speaker 1>world of opportunities and we're seeing now an acceleration of

0:40:40.719 --> 0:40:44.160
<v Speaker 1>what was bound to happen. We will turn an employment arrangement. Alright,

0:40:44.200 --> 0:40:48.560
<v Speaker 1>So Shahar, with more and more company's employees working remotely,

0:40:48.560 --> 0:40:52.640
<v Speaker 1>whether their employees or freelancers, my guess is that's kind

0:40:52.840 --> 0:40:58.239
<v Speaker 1>of creating new management challenges. From an HR perspective, What

0:40:58.320 --> 0:41:00.359
<v Speaker 1>are some of the issues that you your giants are

0:41:00.360 --> 0:41:03.920
<v Speaker 1>seeing and what are some of your solutions, UM, So

0:41:03.960 --> 0:41:06.920
<v Speaker 1>I'll kind of distinguish between remote work, which is, you know,

0:41:06.960 --> 0:41:09.480
<v Speaker 1>an employee that just doesn't come every day to the office.

0:41:09.800 --> 0:41:12.520
<v Speaker 1>I think the biggest challenge that we're saying is really

0:41:12.560 --> 0:41:16.400
<v Speaker 1>with this the transition that organizations are having too a

0:41:16.560 --> 0:41:22.759
<v Speaker 1>flexible employment arrangement where you have the workforce that's not

0:41:22.880 --> 0:41:29.759
<v Speaker 1>really formal company employees, independent contractors, freelancers, gig workers, service providers.

0:41:30.160 --> 0:41:34.560
<v Speaker 1>In fact, that is becoming the norm within organization and

0:41:34.560 --> 0:41:37.799
<v Speaker 1>again remote work has accelerated. The biggest challenge that we're

0:41:37.840 --> 0:41:40.520
<v Speaker 1>seeing there is what we now call UM shadow way

0:41:40.600 --> 0:41:43.680
<v Speaker 1>job UM, and we took the term shadowy jar kind

0:41:43.680 --> 0:41:46.840
<v Speaker 1>of borrowed it from the term that was created in

0:41:46.840 --> 0:41:49.680
<v Speaker 1>the mid two thousand in the world of what was

0:41:49.680 --> 0:41:52.400
<v Speaker 1>called shadow I T and shadow I was calling during

0:41:52.440 --> 0:41:57.440
<v Speaker 1>that time UM as a result of departments, teams and

0:41:57.480 --> 0:42:02.919
<v Speaker 1>individuals with incorporates bypassed in formal I ke uh processes

0:42:02.960 --> 0:42:06.280
<v Speaker 1>and policies and instructions if you will, and start buying

0:42:06.760 --> 0:42:10.400
<v Speaker 1>services and application outside I because they wanted to move faster.

0:42:10.920 --> 0:42:15.960
<v Speaker 1>No results. It significant challenges as data leakage, performance issues,

0:42:16.520 --> 0:42:20.879
<v Speaker 1>UM overspending inefficiencies in the organization, and we're saying something

0:42:20.960 --> 0:42:23.839
<v Speaker 1>very similar happening now with what we call the shadowing jaw.

0:42:24.120 --> 0:42:27.520
<v Speaker 1>Shadowy jar means that there are people that are doing

0:42:27.640 --> 0:42:30.439
<v Speaker 1>work for the company but are not governed by any

0:42:30.440 --> 0:42:35.600
<v Speaker 1>process in the company. Most AGR organizations are UM governing

0:42:35.640 --> 0:42:39.680
<v Speaker 1>if you will, M w two employees formal company employees,

0:42:39.920 --> 0:42:43.719
<v Speaker 1>but with twenty of the workforce not really company employees,

0:42:43.800 --> 0:42:48.239
<v Speaker 1>not really on the payroll. These freelancers, independent contractors, they

0:42:48.280 --> 0:42:51.719
<v Speaker 1>like the government, these non employees, they don't have a

0:42:51.719 --> 0:42:54.560
<v Speaker 1>single owner in the company. It's kind of falls between

0:42:54.600 --> 0:42:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the HR team, the prosurement team, the finance team, the

0:42:57.680 --> 0:42:59.520
<v Speaker 1>legal team. There's a lot of different people that need

0:42:59.560 --> 0:43:02.520
<v Speaker 1>to come into play, and none of them really own it,

0:43:02.560 --> 0:43:05.080
<v Speaker 1>and so a lot of things are going wrong or

0:43:05.120 --> 0:43:08.680
<v Speaker 1>potentially going wrong when when that is the case. But

0:43:08.760 --> 0:43:10.440
<v Speaker 1>this is where you guys come in, right, because this

0:43:10.520 --> 0:43:12.480
<v Speaker 1>is I mean, this is essentially what you do right.

0:43:12.640 --> 0:43:17.760
<v Speaker 1>You're able to kind of track these remote workers correct.

0:43:17.800 --> 0:43:21.400
<v Speaker 1>So what we've built its stoke is really the ability

0:43:21.480 --> 0:43:25.560
<v Speaker 1>for companies to have a single source of truth to

0:43:25.600 --> 0:43:30.400
<v Speaker 1>extremeline the entire process from on boarding UM freelancers, independent

0:43:30.440 --> 0:43:33.319
<v Speaker 1>contract or service providers, making sure they're signed the right

0:43:33.400 --> 0:43:36.440
<v Speaker 1>legal docs, making sure that the right budgets are allocated,

0:43:36.520 --> 0:43:39.160
<v Speaker 1>making sure payments are done correctly, and then off boarding

0:43:39.200 --> 0:43:41.160
<v Speaker 1>them when the time is right. We'll keeping all the

0:43:41.160 --> 0:43:45.960
<v Speaker 1>back office UM breaks and balances, checks and balancers in place,

0:43:46.600 --> 0:43:50.600
<v Speaker 1>because if that's not the case, what we're seeing happening

0:43:50.640 --> 0:43:52.160
<v Speaker 1>more and more in companies. Why the way when we

0:43:52.160 --> 0:43:55.680
<v Speaker 1>talk to companies, talk to the CFO or CEO is

0:43:55.719 --> 0:43:59.319
<v Speaker 1>the most common responses. We don't really have contractors or freelancers.

0:44:00.160 --> 0:44:03.719
<v Speaker 1>And the reality is there's three U five X what

0:44:03.880 --> 0:44:06.440
<v Speaker 1>do they think they have because it's not managed anywhere

0:44:07.480 --> 0:44:11.840
<v Speaker 1>and the results are um A either over spin budget

0:44:11.880 --> 0:44:16.680
<v Speaker 1>overspin um or which is a much more severe case,

0:44:17.000 --> 0:44:19.840
<v Speaker 1>plenty of compliance issues. There's really three levels of compliance

0:44:19.880 --> 0:44:23.399
<v Speaker 1>with independent contractors. One is legal compliance and they signed

0:44:23.400 --> 0:44:26.680
<v Speaker 1>the right legal docs ind A no compete IP ownership.

0:44:27.160 --> 0:44:30.280
<v Speaker 1>We are seeing cases when no one signing the papers

0:44:30.719 --> 0:44:32.480
<v Speaker 1>and then guess what he catches up to you later

0:44:32.520 --> 0:44:35.120
<v Speaker 1>on when the company goes to a financing ground or

0:44:35.160 --> 0:44:36.960
<v Speaker 1>an i P O, all of a sudden a freelancer

0:44:37.000 --> 0:44:39.600
<v Speaker 1>stand up until they I never signed over I P

0:44:39.800 --> 0:44:42.759
<v Speaker 1>should and you know I have a part in the

0:44:43.160 --> 0:44:47.160
<v Speaker 1>in this company. UM. Data protection is a big one. UM. Sorry.

0:44:47.200 --> 0:44:49.160
<v Speaker 1>One thing I wanted to ask you. I mean, you've

0:44:49.239 --> 0:44:52.640
<v Speaker 1>held steen your positions at vm Ware, Hewlett Packard, You've

0:44:52.680 --> 0:44:54.839
<v Speaker 1>been in the software in I related space for a

0:44:54.840 --> 0:44:57.640
<v Speaker 1>long time. What do you make of what we're hearing

0:44:57.680 --> 0:45:00.560
<v Speaker 1>about Silicon Valley and you know you are hearing a

0:45:00.600 --> 0:45:02.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of those big tech companies say you want to

0:45:02.680 --> 0:45:05.080
<v Speaker 1>work from home for the rest of you know, your life.

0:45:05.120 --> 0:45:08.200
<v Speaker 1>That's fine, you can do it forever. UM. It's a

0:45:08.200 --> 0:45:09.759
<v Speaker 1>trend that you you know, what are you hearing from

0:45:09.760 --> 0:45:12.520
<v Speaker 1>your colleagues in Silicon Valley about that this will really

0:45:12.600 --> 0:45:18.759
<v Speaker 1>ultimately stick. UM. So, as I mentioned, I don't think

0:45:18.760 --> 0:45:20.960
<v Speaker 1>this is new. I just think we're seeing an acceleration.

0:45:21.080 --> 0:45:24.480
<v Speaker 1>This trend started. I don't know if it's started in

0:45:24.480 --> 0:45:26.919
<v Speaker 1>Silicon valid, but obviously it was popular in Silicon Value

0:45:26.920 --> 0:45:31.680
<v Speaker 1>where people are working once or twice a week from home. UM.

0:45:31.719 --> 0:45:34.400
<v Speaker 1>And we started seeing more and more super successful companies

0:45:34.440 --> 0:45:37.719
<v Speaker 1>that are were built in the distributed manner. Companies like

0:45:37.760 --> 0:45:43.479
<v Speaker 1>Hashi Corp, Elastic, WordPress and again weren't built that way,

0:45:43.800 --> 0:45:46.880
<v Speaker 1>and over time more companies moved to that that operating

0:45:46.960 --> 0:45:49.440
<v Speaker 1>mall UM. I don't think it's going back to the

0:45:49.440 --> 0:45:53.000
<v Speaker 1>way it plus, I think that companies need to realize

0:45:53.080 --> 0:45:56.319
<v Speaker 1>this is the new normal full we disputed organizations and

0:45:56.360 --> 0:45:59.240
<v Speaker 1>to put in the right processes to support that organization

0:45:59.280 --> 0:46:01.920
<v Speaker 1>because it isn't the mental change. UM. A lot of

0:46:01.960 --> 0:46:04.320
<v Speaker 1>us we're used to seeing people in the office, white boarding,

0:46:04.400 --> 0:46:07.279
<v Speaker 1>brainstorming in person. A lot of that is not going

0:46:07.360 --> 0:46:10.439
<v Speaker 1>to come back. It's gonna be once a quarter, once

0:46:10.440 --> 0:46:13.239
<v Speaker 1>a month. Maybe this means won't be together, but most

0:46:13.280 --> 0:46:14.880
<v Speaker 1>of the time it is going to be a fully

0:46:14.880 --> 0:46:19.200
<v Speaker 1>distributed organization. And I think it has dramatic implications, not

0:46:19.280 --> 0:46:21.760
<v Speaker 1>on the workforce. I think the work will still get done.

0:46:22.120 --> 0:46:25.080
<v Speaker 1>I think there's two areas that's going to be can

0:46:25.160 --> 0:46:28.719
<v Speaker 1>change A how do companies for the first time in

0:46:28.760 --> 0:46:32.279
<v Speaker 1>a while, we'll start measuring output. You know, in the

0:46:32.280 --> 0:46:35.400
<v Speaker 1>software industry for years, companies that we're trying to measure

0:46:35.440 --> 0:46:38.200
<v Speaker 1>how do you measure engineering output? And there's no real

0:46:38.280 --> 0:46:40.560
<v Speaker 1>answers for that, and so right now and people or

0:46:40.600 --> 0:46:43.080
<v Speaker 1>you know what, how do you measure their productivity? That's

0:46:43.080 --> 0:46:45.440
<v Speaker 1>a horror Rest co founder and CEO of Stoke Talent,

0:46:45.560 --> 0:46:48.080
<v Speaker 1>he's talking about productivity. We've heard a lot about that

0:46:48.160 --> 0:46:52.160
<v Speaker 1>from various leaders, including JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond. Some say

0:46:52.200 --> 0:46:54.840
<v Speaker 1>it's taking a hit, others say it's doing just fine

0:46:54.880 --> 0:46:57.520
<v Speaker 1>as workers work from home. Well coming up. One trend

0:46:57.560 --> 0:47:00.360
<v Speaker 1>we've noticed with all of us working from home, started

0:47:00.400 --> 0:47:03.319
<v Speaker 1>drinking more. Some trends from millennials who are out to

0:47:03.400 --> 0:47:10.120
<v Speaker 1>change the beverage world. That's next. This is Bloomberg. This

0:47:10.760 --> 0:47:15.560
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with GARYL. Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:47:15.640 --> 0:47:17.960
<v Speaker 1>it's the weekend. Time to kick back, maybe with a tall,

0:47:18.040 --> 0:47:20.399
<v Speaker 1>cool one, and maybe even a cool game. We've got

0:47:20.400 --> 0:47:23.839
<v Speaker 1>two interviews on this in the next thirty minutes. First up,

0:47:23.840 --> 0:47:26.520
<v Speaker 1>a collection of millennials thinking about the next generation of

0:47:26.600 --> 0:47:29.400
<v Speaker 1>drinkers and the brands that will be in demand. Bloomberg's

0:47:29.400 --> 0:47:32.160
<v Speaker 1>Paul Sweeney and I checked in with Amy Steadman, founder

0:47:32.200 --> 0:47:35.799
<v Speaker 1>and CEO at future Proof Beatbox Beverages and heard about

0:47:35.840 --> 0:47:38.160
<v Speaker 1>their strategy. But first up, we had to know how

0:47:38.200 --> 0:47:41.480
<v Speaker 1>this relatively new brand got through the pandemic. When all

0:47:41.560 --> 0:47:45.120
<v Speaker 1>this started, we were nervous, just as everybody was. That

0:47:45.239 --> 0:47:49.000
<v Speaker 1>our primary distribution is in channels such as grocery, liquor

0:47:49.040 --> 0:47:52.360
<v Speaker 1>store and convenience stores. And what you did toe was

0:47:52.520 --> 0:47:55.800
<v Speaker 1>all of the dollars being spends on alcohol shifting from

0:47:56.160 --> 0:47:59.360
<v Speaker 1>restaurants and bars into those channels. And so we've actually

0:47:59.440 --> 0:48:03.360
<v Speaker 1>been experience anything record sales months every month of the pandemic,

0:48:03.719 --> 0:48:06.440
<v Speaker 1>and that's been able to, you know, fortunately turn it

0:48:06.480 --> 0:48:09.880
<v Speaker 1>around and raise money for Small Business Relief Fund and

0:48:09.960 --> 0:48:12.560
<v Speaker 1>a c l U and other groups as well. So

0:48:12.800 --> 0:48:15.520
<v Speaker 1>it's been the silver lining of all that so amy.

0:48:15.560 --> 0:48:17.439
<v Speaker 1>When I walk into a liquor store these days, I'm

0:48:17.440 --> 0:48:22.400
<v Speaker 1>just overwhelmed by the number of products, you know, really

0:48:22.440 --> 0:48:24.840
<v Speaker 1>competing for shelf space. It's just so many new products.

0:48:24.840 --> 0:48:28.280
<v Speaker 1>It's not just beer, wine and spirits. There's everything hard seltzer,

0:48:28.280 --> 0:48:30.799
<v Speaker 1>and I guess that's kind of the u some of

0:48:30.800 --> 0:48:34.720
<v Speaker 1>the newer products. How do you get mind share market

0:48:34.760 --> 0:48:38.040
<v Speaker 1>share in such a crowded market. What's your marketing strategy?

0:48:38.200 --> 0:48:41.399
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely so, I mean, what you're seeing is the results

0:48:41.520 --> 0:48:45.800
<v Speaker 1>of huge trans and consumer drinking. Right, Millennials are shifting

0:48:45.840 --> 0:48:50.120
<v Speaker 1>away from traditional beer to wine and flavored items like Beatbox,

0:48:50.600 --> 0:48:53.560
<v Speaker 1>and the bigger brands are scrambling trying to find things

0:48:53.560 --> 0:48:55.719
<v Speaker 1>that are gonna work. But what they're missing is that

0:48:55.920 --> 0:48:59.120
<v Speaker 1>key authenticity that millennials and gen z are also looking for.

0:48:59.360 --> 0:49:01.640
<v Speaker 1>You know, the big brands will try and slap a

0:49:01.640 --> 0:49:04.040
<v Speaker 1>new label on an outdated idea, trying to make it

0:49:04.080 --> 0:49:07.880
<v Speaker 1>cool to these demographics. But you know, with our brand,

0:49:07.920 --> 0:49:10.800
<v Speaker 1>we sought to create the most authentic experience possible with

0:49:10.880 --> 0:49:13.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, we use social media, brand ambassadors and other

0:49:13.800 --> 0:49:17.000
<v Speaker 1>listening tools to stay extremely connected to our consumers, and

0:49:17.040 --> 0:49:19.040
<v Speaker 1>I think that's really what's made us stand out and

0:49:19.200 --> 0:49:23.160
<v Speaker 1>on all of those different new entrants like you've mentioned. Okay,

0:49:23.160 --> 0:49:25.239
<v Speaker 1>one thing I want to ask you because your background

0:49:25.440 --> 0:49:28.439
<v Speaker 1>is really fascinating to me. Um. First of all, it's

0:49:28.480 --> 0:49:32.680
<v Speaker 1>a woman who's got two male business partners and you know,

0:49:32.800 --> 0:49:35.319
<v Speaker 1>creating a company, and I'm curious about that experience. I'm

0:49:35.360 --> 0:49:39.000
<v Speaker 1>also experienced. You're a first generation US citizen that you know,

0:49:39.040 --> 0:49:40.880
<v Speaker 1>you moved here from Syria when you were about ten

0:49:40.960 --> 0:49:43.960
<v Speaker 1>years old, So I'm just curious about, you know, being

0:49:44.000 --> 0:49:46.400
<v Speaker 1>an immigrant in this country creating a company and what

0:49:46.440 --> 0:49:50.200
<v Speaker 1>the experience has been for you. Yeah. So my parents

0:49:50.320 --> 0:49:52.879
<v Speaker 1>had corporate jobs when we lived in the Middle Eave.

0:49:53.000 --> 0:49:55.160
<v Speaker 1>My dad's from the UK and my mom's from Syria,

0:49:55.520 --> 0:49:57.839
<v Speaker 1>and they actually quit their jobs when I was ten

0:49:57.880 --> 0:50:01.000
<v Speaker 1>years old to pursue entrepreneurship in this country. And so

0:50:01.040 --> 0:50:03.840
<v Speaker 1>we came over and I watched them grow their businesses

0:50:03.880 --> 0:50:06.680
<v Speaker 1>through high school and college. It was a vending machine

0:50:06.719 --> 0:50:09.759
<v Speaker 1>business with those you know, bubbles and stuffed animals and

0:50:09.800 --> 0:50:12.640
<v Speaker 1>things like that, So that was their business and then

0:50:12.719 --> 0:50:14.640
<v Speaker 1>when it came time for me to go to business

0:50:14.640 --> 0:50:18.520
<v Speaker 1>school and start my company, I was incredibly flattered that,

0:50:18.640 --> 0:50:21.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, my business partners decided they were not going

0:50:21.680 --> 0:50:24.880
<v Speaker 1>to start a next generation alcohol beverage company without including

0:50:24.960 --> 0:50:28.640
<v Speaker 1>a female founder and having diversity on their ownership. So

0:50:28.680 --> 0:50:31.480
<v Speaker 1>I really appreciated them recruiting to me to join the team.

0:50:31.560 --> 0:50:34.480
<v Speaker 1>And um, you know, certainly being a female founder in

0:50:34.520 --> 0:50:38.279
<v Speaker 1>that alcohol beverage industry is had its rocky moments. I

0:50:38.280 --> 0:50:41.320
<v Speaker 1>mean I'm often mistaken for, you know, a promotional model

0:50:41.360 --> 0:50:44.319
<v Speaker 1>when I'm saying no, I'm actually the owner of the company. Um,

0:50:44.440 --> 0:50:47.840
<v Speaker 1>people you know have a reaction. But my reaction to

0:50:47.960 --> 0:50:49.480
<v Speaker 1>that is, you know, the more that I can be

0:50:49.600 --> 0:50:51.759
<v Speaker 1>on things like this and show up the panels and

0:50:51.800 --> 0:50:54.600
<v Speaker 1>be mentors to other female entrepreneurs that you know, we

0:50:54.640 --> 0:50:56.920
<v Speaker 1>could make a change in our generation and you know,

0:50:56.960 --> 0:50:59.680
<v Speaker 1>the next group of female founders. And there have been

0:50:59.719 --> 0:51:03.560
<v Speaker 1>many many new women's founders of alcohol beverages and alcohol

0:51:03.600 --> 0:51:06.759
<v Speaker 1>beverage companies recently. Um, you know, if I see that

0:51:06.840 --> 0:51:08.879
<v Speaker 1>as a great change, and I hope that we can

0:51:08.880 --> 0:51:10.879
<v Speaker 1>continue to be the change that we want to see

0:51:10.880 --> 0:51:14.759
<v Speaker 1>in this industry and encourage more diversity of ownership as well. Well,

0:51:14.760 --> 0:51:17.520
<v Speaker 1>it's super grateful to be an American citizen. Is a

0:51:17.560 --> 0:51:19.760
<v Speaker 1>wonderful place to be. I know, we have our issues,

0:51:19.840 --> 0:51:23.960
<v Speaker 1>but this isn't an incredible country. Beatbox Beverages is a

0:51:24.040 --> 0:51:26.480
<v Speaker 1>product that we launched the first time back in two

0:51:26.520 --> 0:51:29.759
<v Speaker 1>thousand thirteen. We really found that it was resonating with

0:51:29.840 --> 0:51:34.040
<v Speaker 1>millennials in terms of the eco friendly, portable, great flavors,

0:51:34.239 --> 0:51:37.000
<v Speaker 1>and so we've been really growing with that brand. Uh

0:51:37.239 --> 0:51:41.080
<v Speaker 1>this past year, our company is actually transitioned from Beatbox

0:51:41.120 --> 0:51:44.160
<v Speaker 1>Beverages to future Proof brands, and we're piloting to new

0:51:44.200 --> 0:51:47.600
<v Speaker 1>brands and fast growing categories and alcohol as well, corkless

0:51:47.600 --> 0:51:51.280
<v Speaker 1>and alternative packaging, wines and brizzy in the Seltzer space.

0:51:51.480 --> 0:51:53.680
<v Speaker 1>All Right, wait, bait, Okay, we're going way too fast.

0:51:53.719 --> 0:51:55.600
<v Speaker 1>You gotta go back to Shark Tank because I mean,

0:51:55.719 --> 0:51:57.880
<v Speaker 1>we all know that brand. We well, I you know,

0:51:57.880 --> 0:51:59.279
<v Speaker 1>every once in a while, I go down a rabbit

0:51:59.320 --> 0:52:00.640
<v Speaker 1>hole and I watched a ball out, you know, one

0:52:00.680 --> 0:52:03.680
<v Speaker 1>after another, because it's just fascinating to see to me,

0:52:04.320 --> 0:52:07.400
<v Speaker 1>entrepreneurs you know, pitching their business to you know, this

0:52:07.520 --> 0:52:09.879
<v Speaker 1>panel of individuals who've got money to spend and who

0:52:10.000 --> 0:52:12.520
<v Speaker 1>understand what it takes to make a good business. What

0:52:12.600 --> 0:52:15.400
<v Speaker 1>was that experience like because you actually got Mark Cuban

0:52:15.440 --> 0:52:19.879
<v Speaker 1>two I think pitching about a million dollars or so, absolutely,

0:52:19.880 --> 0:52:21.879
<v Speaker 1>which was one of the biggest deals on the show

0:52:21.920 --> 0:52:24.600
<v Speaker 1>of all time back then. But um, you know, we

0:52:24.600 --> 0:52:27.839
<v Speaker 1>we started the company very bare bones. You know, we

0:52:27.880 --> 0:52:31.719
<v Speaker 1>made it ourselves, distributed ourselves. We were doing you know,

0:52:31.880 --> 0:52:35.480
<v Speaker 1>probably six to nine hours of in store samplings a weekend,

0:52:35.480 --> 0:52:37.439
<v Speaker 1>and we would always get that common is you should

0:52:37.480 --> 0:52:39.319
<v Speaker 1>be on Shark Tank. You should be on Shark Think

0:52:39.400 --> 0:52:42.799
<v Speaker 1>when people saw the product, Yes, Shark Tank definitely a

0:52:42.880 --> 0:52:45.880
<v Speaker 1>good idea. That's Amy Steadman, founder in chief operating officer

0:52:45.920 --> 0:52:49.400
<v Speaker 1>at future Proof Beatbox Beverages, with some advice for entrepreneurs,

0:52:49.400 --> 0:52:51.759
<v Speaker 1>And I gotta say not too shabby too to have

0:52:51.880 --> 0:52:54.720
<v Speaker 1>Mark Cuban backing you, all right, Still to come safe

0:52:54.719 --> 0:52:56.719
<v Speaker 1>to say, Amy and her team had lots of decisions

0:52:56.719 --> 0:52:59.600
<v Speaker 1>to make while building their business. Coming up former pro

0:52:59.600 --> 0:53:02.200
<v Speaker 1>poker player Annie Duke on how to stack the deck

0:53:02.320 --> 0:53:05.719
<v Speaker 1>and make better choices. That's straight ahead on Bloomberg Business Week.

0:53:05.880 --> 0:53:13.960
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Garrol

0:53:14.000 --> 0:53:17.200
<v Speaker 1>Masser from Bloomberg Radio. So let's wrap up this week

0:53:17.200 --> 0:53:19.600
<v Speaker 1>with Annie Duke. She holds a World Series of poker

0:53:19.600 --> 0:53:22.359
<v Speaker 1>gold bracelet. She played the game for years, retired into

0:53:23.080 --> 0:53:26.280
<v Speaker 1>after making over four million in tournament winnings. She's down

0:53:26.280 --> 0:53:29.480
<v Speaker 1>inspirational speaker, author and putting her efforts to good causes,

0:53:29.520 --> 0:53:32.480
<v Speaker 1>including the Alliance for Decision Education. She's got a new

0:53:32.520 --> 0:53:35.840
<v Speaker 1>book out this week, How to Decide, Simple Tools for

0:53:35.960 --> 0:53:38.719
<v Speaker 1>making Better Choices. Bloombergs Paul Sweeney and I talked with

0:53:38.719 --> 0:53:42.000
<v Speaker 1>her about making decisions, education and of course, of course

0:53:42.280 --> 0:53:45.080
<v Speaker 1>the game. I was a graduate student at the University

0:53:45.080 --> 0:53:49.280
<v Speaker 1>of Pennsylvania doing my page d work actually in cognitive science,

0:53:49.400 --> 0:53:53.040
<v Speaker 1>and UM I was full. I was like contending a professor.

0:53:53.320 --> 0:53:55.239
<v Speaker 1>And right at the end of my five years there,

0:53:55.360 --> 0:53:57.880
<v Speaker 1>as I was about to finish um and actually as

0:53:57.920 --> 0:54:01.000
<v Speaker 1>I was going out for job interviews, I it got

0:54:01.040 --> 0:54:02.840
<v Speaker 1>sick and I needed to take some time off, and

0:54:02.840 --> 0:54:04.799
<v Speaker 1>I didn't I didn't quite know what to do with

0:54:04.840 --> 0:54:07.600
<v Speaker 1>my as I was taking a year off and I

0:54:07.640 --> 0:54:10.919
<v Speaker 1>really needed money. Um And and my brother Howard Letter

0:54:11.160 --> 0:54:13.640
<v Speaker 1>had had already been playing poker for about ten years

0:54:13.680 --> 0:54:16.040
<v Speaker 1>before then and was the one who actually suggested to

0:54:16.080 --> 0:54:18.480
<v Speaker 1>me that maybe I play. It wasn't totally out of

0:54:18.480 --> 0:54:20.320
<v Speaker 1>the blue, because when I was in graduate school he

0:54:20.320 --> 0:54:22.279
<v Speaker 1>would a chase and would bring me out to like

0:54:22.360 --> 0:54:25.360
<v Speaker 1>Las Vegas on a vacation um and give me money

0:54:25.360 --> 0:54:27.239
<v Speaker 1>to go play poker in some pointers. So I did

0:54:27.360 --> 0:54:29.279
<v Speaker 1>know something about the game. But he's the one who

0:54:29.280 --> 0:54:32.840
<v Speaker 1>got me into playing professionally. So all right, so you

0:54:32.880 --> 0:54:36.640
<v Speaker 1>have that experience as a poker player, uh, success as

0:54:36.680 --> 0:54:40.719
<v Speaker 1>a poker player. When you retired from the poker game,

0:54:41.560 --> 0:54:43.239
<v Speaker 1>What did you do next? Why did you retire and

0:54:43.480 --> 0:54:47.719
<v Speaker 1>what were you looking to do? Yeah? So, actually it's

0:54:47.840 --> 0:54:51.080
<v Speaker 1>not quite what did I do next, because it was

0:54:51.120 --> 0:54:55.920
<v Speaker 1>what was I doing in parallel of myer? So I

0:54:56.000 --> 0:55:00.040
<v Speaker 1>retired in two thousand twelve. Yeah to um uh it.

0:55:00.719 --> 0:55:04.040
<v Speaker 1>The founder asked me to come speaks traders about how

0:55:04.080 --> 0:55:08.000
<v Speaker 1>poker might inform their decision making. And that was about

0:55:08.000 --> 0:55:09.600
<v Speaker 1>eight years into my poker career, and it was the

0:55:09.600 --> 0:55:12.399
<v Speaker 1>first time that I started thinking pretty explicitly about how

0:55:12.440 --> 0:55:16.480
<v Speaker 1>my work in cognitive psychology could inform um poker thinking

0:55:16.480 --> 0:55:19.560
<v Speaker 1>and vice versa, that that might help to really understand

0:55:20.040 --> 0:55:22.480
<v Speaker 1>both the things that frustrate human decision making and the

0:55:22.520 --> 0:55:24.640
<v Speaker 1>things that might get might make it better. So that

0:55:24.640 --> 0:55:28.359
<v Speaker 1>was in two thousands two really thinking about that conversation,

0:55:28.880 --> 0:55:32.000
<v Speaker 1>and for the next ten years and I was doing

0:55:32.200 --> 0:55:35.919
<v Speaker 1>talks and out um consulting and starting to help people

0:55:36.040 --> 0:55:39.440
<v Speaker 1>think through how to become better decision makers, to improve

0:55:39.480 --> 0:55:42.600
<v Speaker 1>their strategy around decision making. In two thousand and twelve,

0:55:42.640 --> 0:55:44.520
<v Speaker 1>I retired from poker to do this full time and

0:55:44.520 --> 0:55:46.520
<v Speaker 1>now I consult full time, I speak full time, and

0:55:46.560 --> 0:55:49.279
<v Speaker 1>I write full time. So let me just tell you

0:55:49.400 --> 0:55:52.239
<v Speaker 1>this book is like the perfect timing because we could

0:55:52.360 --> 0:55:54.239
<v Speaker 1>need some help. I think a lot of people could

0:55:54.320 --> 0:55:57.799
<v Speaker 1>use some help in terms of making better decisions. Talk

0:55:57.880 --> 0:56:00.279
<v Speaker 1>to us a little bit about the work you doing

0:56:00.360 --> 0:56:03.520
<v Speaker 1>for the Alliance for Decision Education. Tell us about it

0:56:03.600 --> 0:56:05.160
<v Speaker 1>and what it's it's setting out to. We just had

0:56:05.200 --> 0:56:08.120
<v Speaker 1>a really smart conversation with Sly James, the former mayor

0:56:08.160 --> 0:56:10.600
<v Speaker 1>of Kansas City, about what we need to do in

0:56:10.680 --> 0:56:13.480
<v Speaker 1>terms of education. But I love your your thoughts on it.

0:56:14.800 --> 0:56:18.480
<v Speaker 1>Oh gosh, yeah, thank you so much for highlighting the alliance.

0:56:18.600 --> 0:56:22.520
<v Speaker 1>So essentially, what what our mission is that the Alliance

0:56:22.600 --> 0:56:26.360
<v Speaker 1>is to bring decision education into case of twelve education.

0:56:26.480 --> 0:56:29.360
<v Speaker 1>So the way that we think about it is that

0:56:29.560 --> 0:56:32.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, better decisions lead to better lives, which ultimately

0:56:32.640 --> 0:56:34.880
<v Speaker 1>lead to a better society. And as you were asking,

0:56:35.440 --> 0:56:37.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, in terms of what's going on with decision

0:56:37.200 --> 0:56:39.440
<v Speaker 1>making recently, I think that we can see that we

0:56:39.600 --> 0:56:43.520
<v Speaker 1>lack decision education in K through twelve UM in our

0:56:43.560 --> 0:56:46.320
<v Speaker 1>case through twelve system. So so I think sort of

0:56:46.360 --> 0:56:47.719
<v Speaker 1>the way that I would put it is, we have

0:56:47.800 --> 0:56:51.680
<v Speaker 1>this requirement for kids to learn trigonometry, which, like, if

0:56:51.719 --> 0:56:54.000
<v Speaker 1>you're going to become an engineer, I suppose might be important,

0:56:54.000 --> 0:56:56.399
<v Speaker 1>and but you could take that in college. And yet

0:56:56.400 --> 0:56:59.239
<v Speaker 1>we're not teaching people to simple things like statistics and

0:56:59.360 --> 0:57:02.120
<v Speaker 1>probability or what's a habit or what would a good

0:57:02.120 --> 0:57:05.000
<v Speaker 1>decision process look like, all things which we think would

0:57:05.040 --> 0:57:09.200
<v Speaker 1>have a much deeper impact on their decisions they make. So,

0:57:09.560 --> 0:57:11.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, we'd like to get more condom in there,

0:57:11.960 --> 0:57:15.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, and less trigonometry in there. I would be

0:57:15.600 --> 0:57:17.160
<v Speaker 1>thinking back to my high school days. That would be

0:57:17.200 --> 0:57:22.120
<v Speaker 1>a welcome change. I love trick, I really did h

0:57:22.200 --> 0:57:24.320
<v Speaker 1>any So I'm thinking about your book again, how to

0:57:24.400 --> 0:57:27.360
<v Speaker 1>decide simple tools from making better choices when I'm faced

0:57:27.360 --> 0:57:31.280
<v Speaker 1>with the decision. UM, I think my probably my fallback positions.

0:57:31.400 --> 0:57:33.240
<v Speaker 1>Just go with your gut, Like I don't even take

0:57:33.240 --> 0:57:36.120
<v Speaker 1>out a piece of paper new pros and cons. I'm

0:57:36.120 --> 0:57:40.280
<v Speaker 1>guessing that's not the optimal strategy. Um what should I

0:57:40.320 --> 0:57:43.640
<v Speaker 1>be thinking about? Yeah, so I think that this is

0:57:43.680 --> 0:57:47.280
<v Speaker 1>exactly why we need decision education because this idea of

0:57:47.280 --> 0:57:49.120
<v Speaker 1>going with your gut seems the whole kind of a

0:57:49.160 --> 0:57:52.320
<v Speaker 1>special place like people think gut decision makers or somehow

0:57:52.880 --> 0:57:56.080
<v Speaker 1>uh special decision makers, but it's actually much more that

0:57:56.160 --> 0:58:00.760
<v Speaker 1>they're random decision makers. So um, so that the issue

0:58:00.800 --> 0:58:02.240
<v Speaker 1>is I'm not saying that your gut can't get you

0:58:02.280 --> 0:58:04.400
<v Speaker 1>to a good place, it's that the requirements of a

0:58:04.400 --> 0:58:07.000
<v Speaker 1>good decision process or that you actually think about what's

0:58:07.040 --> 0:58:08.920
<v Speaker 1>the information that I need to know in order to

0:58:08.960 --> 0:58:11.560
<v Speaker 1>inform this decision? What can I find out? What are

0:58:11.600 --> 0:58:14.600
<v Speaker 1>the different options I'm thinking about? And then you need

0:58:14.640 --> 0:58:17.880
<v Speaker 1>to do some food future predicting that's somewhat explicit, which

0:58:17.880 --> 0:58:19.160
<v Speaker 1>is you know, what are the ways I think this

0:58:19.240 --> 0:58:22.040
<v Speaker 1>could turn out and how likely are those things to occur?

0:58:22.440 --> 0:58:24.720
<v Speaker 1>And having gone through that, particularly if you can keep

0:58:24.760 --> 0:58:27.160
<v Speaker 1>a record of it, it's really helpful because then after

0:58:27.680 --> 0:58:29.800
<v Speaker 1>you sort of get the results of the decision that

0:58:29.840 --> 0:58:32.800
<v Speaker 1>you make, you can actually look back and say, you know,

0:58:32.840 --> 0:58:34.959
<v Speaker 1>did I have the right information? Was I thinking about

0:58:34.960 --> 0:58:37.440
<v Speaker 1>the future in the right way? And that allows you

0:58:37.520 --> 0:58:39.960
<v Speaker 1>then to become a better decision maker going forward. You

0:58:40.000 --> 0:58:42.000
<v Speaker 1>get to learn. But when your gut, you can't do

0:58:42.040 --> 0:58:44.600
<v Speaker 1>that because it's essentially a black box by definition. It's

0:58:44.600 --> 0:58:47.360
<v Speaker 1>not something I can look at. The other probelem with

0:58:47.480 --> 0:58:49.800
<v Speaker 1>that decision making is I can't teach it to somebody else,

0:58:50.160 --> 0:58:52.800
<v Speaker 1>And particularly if you're in a business with a team,

0:58:52.840 --> 0:58:54.880
<v Speaker 1>it's not very helpful as leadership to say I go

0:58:54.960 --> 0:58:57.640
<v Speaker 1>with my gut, because that doesn't improve the quality of

0:58:57.680 --> 0:59:00.880
<v Speaker 1>your team's decision making since they don't have your gut.

0:59:01.240 --> 0:59:03.320
<v Speaker 1>You'd rather have a really good decision process that's going

0:59:03.360 --> 0:59:06.080
<v Speaker 1>to improve the quality of the decisions throughout your organization.

0:59:07.200 --> 0:59:14.160
<v Speaker 1>So is it like a pro and calm list on steroids? Basically, well,

0:59:14.280 --> 0:59:16.080
<v Speaker 1>it's got a little bit of an element of a

0:59:16.080 --> 0:59:18.560
<v Speaker 1>pro and calm list, But I actually wish that people

0:59:18.600 --> 0:59:21.480
<v Speaker 1>would kind of throw their pros and consists away because

0:59:21.840 --> 0:59:25.880
<v Speaker 1>we're all very aware now of the influence of cognitive bias, right,

0:59:25.920 --> 0:59:28.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Thinking Fast and Slow is not a bestseller

0:59:28.240 --> 0:59:31.160
<v Speaker 1>for nothing. Um And the problem with the pros and

0:59:31.200 --> 0:59:34.560
<v Speaker 1>cons list is it's actually a decision tool that would

0:59:34.560 --> 0:59:38.920
<v Speaker 1>amplify the cognitive bias because you're just kind of making

0:59:38.920 --> 0:59:41.160
<v Speaker 1>this list of like what do I like about the decision?

0:59:41.200 --> 0:59:43.400
<v Speaker 1>What don't I like about the decision? And there's there's

0:59:43.440 --> 0:59:46.040
<v Speaker 1>no explicit sense of like how bad or the pros

0:59:46.120 --> 0:59:48.000
<v Speaker 1>or the cons or which cons am I supposed to

0:59:48.000 --> 0:59:50.280
<v Speaker 1>put on there, or which pros am I supposed to

0:59:50.320 --> 0:59:52.120
<v Speaker 1>put on there? Or how likely are any of those

0:59:52.120 --> 0:59:54.560
<v Speaker 1>things to occur? And all of those things are things

0:59:54.600 --> 0:59:56.600
<v Speaker 1>that you need in order to make a good decision.

0:59:56.640 --> 0:59:58.760
<v Speaker 1>So basically what happens with pros and cons list is

0:59:58.760 --> 1:00:01.640
<v Speaker 1>that you sort of already got an inkling of whether

1:00:01.720 --> 1:00:04.200
<v Speaker 1>you'd like to make the decision or not, and then

1:00:04.240 --> 1:00:06.160
<v Speaker 1>the pros and cons list just is a way for

1:00:06.200 --> 1:00:09.320
<v Speaker 1>you to express that preference that you have. So instead

1:00:09.360 --> 1:00:11.480
<v Speaker 1>of doing pros and conslists, it would be better if

1:00:11.520 --> 1:00:13.680
<v Speaker 1>you actually thought about what are the different outcomes that

1:00:14.040 --> 1:00:16.640
<v Speaker 1>I think could occur, like the reasonable set of possibilities,

1:00:16.800 --> 1:00:18.360
<v Speaker 1>and yet some of those will be good and some

1:00:18.400 --> 1:00:20.680
<v Speaker 1>of those will be bad, But then you can think

1:00:20.720 --> 1:00:23.320
<v Speaker 1>about how good are those things? How bad are those

1:00:23.320 --> 1:00:26.360
<v Speaker 1>things and how likely are those to occur? And that's

1:00:26.400 --> 1:00:28.600
<v Speaker 1>information that doesn't exist in a pros and cons list,

1:00:28.680 --> 1:00:30.880
<v Speaker 1>And then you can just compare the upside and the downside.

1:00:31.160 --> 1:00:32.760
<v Speaker 1>And the other thing is that you can start to

1:00:32.760 --> 1:00:35.160
<v Speaker 1>see the risk because with the pros and conslist, like what,

1:00:35.200 --> 1:00:37.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if they've got more cons? Am I

1:00:37.080 --> 1:00:39.000
<v Speaker 1>supposed to just say yes to it? What if the

1:00:39.000 --> 1:00:42.000
<v Speaker 1>cons are like a hangnail, you know? But the pros?

1:00:42.680 --> 1:00:44.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, I don't know, Like I don't know how

1:00:44.960 --> 1:00:48.120
<v Speaker 1>to compare that stuff unless I actually think about magnitude

1:00:48.120 --> 1:00:51.560
<v Speaker 1>and probability. Hey, any how about the variable of time?

1:00:51.680 --> 1:00:54.120
<v Speaker 1>Sometimes I have to make a snap decision and sometimes

1:00:54.160 --> 1:00:56.919
<v Speaker 1>I can take your time, and sometimes you can maybe

1:00:56.960 --> 1:00:59.760
<v Speaker 1>even make a decision in advance. How do you account

1:00:59.760 --> 1:01:03.440
<v Speaker 1>for that? Uh? Yeah? So time is actually really important,

1:01:03.520 --> 1:01:05.320
<v Speaker 1>and it's a very important piece because when we think

1:01:05.320 --> 1:01:08.320
<v Speaker 1>about gut decision making, often we're using our gut for

1:01:08.400 --> 1:01:10.280
<v Speaker 1>decisions that we should actually be taking quite a bit

1:01:10.320 --> 1:01:13.000
<v Speaker 1>of time on, and we'll use like a big analytic

1:01:13.080 --> 1:01:15.520
<v Speaker 1>process for decisions that we should be taking no time on,

1:01:15.640 --> 1:01:17.440
<v Speaker 1>like what should we order up the menu? We've all

1:01:17.440 --> 1:01:19.760
<v Speaker 1>been around those people, right, you might be one that

1:01:19.840 --> 1:01:23.120
<v Speaker 1>takes like fifteen minutes order off the menu. So um.

1:01:23.240 --> 1:01:24.880
<v Speaker 1>So there's a couple of things that tell us how

1:01:24.920 --> 1:01:26.720
<v Speaker 1>much time we should take on a decision. One is

1:01:26.720 --> 1:01:28.960
<v Speaker 1>that sometimes we just have a deadline. Right if you

1:01:29.000 --> 1:01:31.040
<v Speaker 1>don't decide within the next week, the option is going

1:01:31.080 --> 1:01:33.520
<v Speaker 1>to go away and you're not gonna have the opportunity anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>And then obviously you just need to you need to

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<v Speaker 1>make the decision with a time period. But the other

1:01:38.920 --> 1:01:41.080
<v Speaker 1>way that we can think about like how much time

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<v Speaker 1>we should take is just with two frameworks. One is

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<v Speaker 1>how quitable is the decision? That would be like the

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<v Speaker 1>two way door type of decision that Jeff Bezos would

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<v Speaker 1>talk about, Um can we reverse it? Um? And we

1:01:51.520 --> 1:01:53.640
<v Speaker 1>really care about that because the more that you can

1:01:53.680 --> 1:01:56.000
<v Speaker 1>reverse the decision if you don't like the outcome, the

1:01:56.080 --> 1:01:58.960
<v Speaker 1>faster you can go because then you can just mitigate

1:01:59.000 --> 1:02:01.880
<v Speaker 1>the downside. Um. The other thing is just what's the

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<v Speaker 1>impact of the decision. So if I'm thinking about what

1:02:04.520 --> 1:02:06.160
<v Speaker 1>to order off a menu, and I'm sitting with someone

1:02:06.200 --> 1:02:08.560
<v Speaker 1>who's taking fifteen minutes to do so, I can just

1:02:08.560 --> 1:02:10.480
<v Speaker 1>say to them, hey, let's just say your meal was

1:02:10.520 --> 1:02:12.439
<v Speaker 1>really terrible. Are you going to care in a month

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<v Speaker 1>and their answer is going to be no, And I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be able to Can you just pick that and

1:02:16.000 --> 1:02:18.400
<v Speaker 1>that will actually speed the decisions. So think about impact

1:02:18.760 --> 1:02:20.600
<v Speaker 1>reality and that will get you to the right amount

1:02:20.600 --> 1:02:23.520
<v Speaker 1>of time. That's professional poker player, Annie. Do check out

1:02:23.520 --> 1:02:26.920
<v Speaker 1>our book How to Decide Simple Tools for making better choices.

1:02:27.360 --> 1:02:29.480
<v Speaker 1>And that wraps up the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business

1:02:29.480 --> 1:02:31.880
<v Speaker 1>Week from Bloomberg Radio. Thanks so much for joining us.

1:02:31.880 --> 1:02:34.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm Carol Master along with Bloomberg's Paul Sweeney. Be sure

1:02:35.000 --> 1:02:37.560
<v Speaker 1>to tune into our daily radio show Monday through Friday,

1:02:37.600 --> 1:02:40.000
<v Speaker 1>starting at two pm Wall Street Time. You can also

1:02:40.120 --> 1:02:43.080
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1:02:43.280 --> 1:02:45.880
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1:02:45.920 --> 1:02:48.840
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1:02:48.920 --> 1:02:51.760
<v Speaker 1>News and be sure to check out our Bloomberg Business

1:02:51.760 --> 1:02:55.280
<v Speaker 1>Week Extra podcast. This week. Someone who understands a fast

1:02:55.280 --> 1:02:58.240
<v Speaker 1>food space. It's Cliff Hudson, former chairman and CEO of

1:02:58.320 --> 1:03:02.040
<v Speaker 1>Oklahoma Basonic Drive In. He spent several decades at the company.

1:03:02.320 --> 1:03:04.200
<v Speaker 1>He's got a new book out, Master of None, how

1:03:04.240 --> 1:03:06.840
<v Speaker 1>a jack of All trades can still reach the top

1:03:07.120 --> 1:03:10.200
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week of course, available on news stands now,

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1:03:13.520 --> 1:03:15.920
<v Speaker 1>Stay safe, everyone, have a great weekend, and we'll see

1:03:15.960 --> 1:03:17.560
<v Speaker 1>you next week. This is Bloomberg.