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Speaker 1: From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies. History is

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Speaker 1: riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or

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Speaker 1: learn this stuff they don't want you to know. A

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Speaker 1: production of iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 2: Hello, welcome back to the show. My name is Matt,

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Speaker 2: my name is Noah.

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Speaker 3: They call me Ben.

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Speaker 4: We're joined as always with our super producer Paul mission

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Speaker 4: controlled decads. Most importantly, you are you, You are here,

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Speaker 4: and that makes this the stuff they don't want you

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Speaker 4: to know. Tonight, we are returning to a story that's

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Speaker 4: been on quite a few people's minds, quite often.

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Speaker 5: Quite recently.

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Speaker 4: Several weeks ago, a guy that you've probably heard about,

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Speaker 4: Yevgeny Pregoshan, the leader of a group called Wagner, appears

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Speaker 4: to have died in an airplane explosion north of Moscow.

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Speaker 4: You can see all sorts of analysis about it, as

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Speaker 4: well as a chilling announcement by Vladimir Putin, still President

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Speaker 4: of Russia. As a matter of fact, Can we play

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Speaker 4: the video? Can we play a clip of this? Have

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Speaker 4: you guys heard this guy?

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Speaker 2: Let's do it?

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Speaker 3: Dona snatch.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, a man with a complex destiny. That's interesting, yes,

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Speaker 6: so Ben, just just a very little clarity around the clip.

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Speaker 6: Is this post attempted coup? Mm hmm, okay, yeah.

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Speaker 4: This is after after the unfortunate airplane expedition.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 4: Uh, Vladimir Putin, current President of Russia, comes out and says,

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Speaker 4: I've known you've got any progosion for a very long time,

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Speaker 4: since the nineties. He was a man with a complicated fate.

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Speaker 4: He made serious mistakes in life. It's kind of cold

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Speaker 4: as eulogies go.

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Speaker 6: I think that's why I was confused, because it didn't

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Speaker 6: even seem like a eulogy. And it also you off off, Mike,

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Speaker 6: You skipped through a whole bunch of other stuff before

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Speaker 6: you even got to the slight mention.

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Speaker 3: So it's like really kind of a footnote. Very cold.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but guys, what do you say about a guy

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Speaker 2: that just tried to leave a mutiny against you? When

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Speaker 2: that person dies? I liked him. You know, what do

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Speaker 2: you say this jerk tried to overthrow my government? You know?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good question. Earlier, we'd speculated on the

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Speaker 4: many rumors surrounding the alleged death or various death theories

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Speaker 4: of Pregosian and his top men, at Wagner, But tonight's

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Speaker 4: episode is asking what happens next the king is dead,

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Speaker 4: what happens to the kingdom? Here are the facts. We

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Speaker 4: need to give a quick recap on Wagner in general,

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Speaker 4: because a lot of times, I think people in the

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Speaker 4: West hear the phrase Wagner and they think like it's

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Speaker 4: a battalion of the Russian military or something like that.

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Speaker 4: But it's a lot closer to Blackwater.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, you know, it's something that people I

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Speaker 6: think in the West weren't hearing about at all for

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Speaker 6: many years. I mean, it's really acted as kind of,

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Speaker 6: like I think, been the term that you've used in

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Speaker 6: the past, as sort of shadow military, you know, for

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Speaker 6: Russia for a lot longer than this conflict has been

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Speaker 6: at play, and these most recent kind of hiccups in

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Speaker 6: the relationship.

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Speaker 4: Let's just say, right, agreed, Yeah, Wagner is a private

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Speaker 4: military contractor or PMC, and like you said, Noel, for

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Speaker 4: a long time it was a de facto shadow army

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Speaker 4: for Russia, similar to for instance, Blackwater. Oh wait, Matt, sorry,

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Speaker 4: is it z X Oh wait is it ACADEMI?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 4: Hang on, is it constell Us?

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Speaker 2: I don't know. It's all of those. Yeah, yeah, but

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Speaker 2: private military contractors became famous or at least a known thing.

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Speaker 2: That phrase became a known thing in the US during

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Speaker 2: the Afghanistan War or whatever they want to call it,

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Speaker 2: the war in Afghanistan, when we invaded Afghanistan as a

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Speaker 2: country United States. We learned about Blackwater. Then we learned about,

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Speaker 2: you know, operations in Iraq and other countries that maybe

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Speaker 2: we shouldn't have been operating in where private military contractors

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Speaker 2: went in and did some operations again on other countries

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Speaker 2: soil while they were operating in a place where the

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Speaker 2: US military is officially operating. Just some weird stuff has happened.

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Speaker 2: We also saw stuff like that back during the Vietnam War,

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Speaker 2: right when Laos and other countries were you know, there

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Speaker 2: was activity going on when it really wasn't supposed to be.

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Speaker 2: What I'm saying is that is what you can kind

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Speaker 2: of do with a private military military contractor like the

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Speaker 2: Wagner Group. You can have them do some things that

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Speaker 2: are maybe they it would be an international incident if

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Speaker 2: let's say the official Russian Army was taking part in

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Speaker 2: actions in parts of Africa.

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Speaker 4: One hundred percent ah Man so well put uh. Wagner

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Speaker 4: is also common misconception in the West. Wagner is also

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Speaker 4: a group of private entities operating under one name. It's

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Speaker 4: kind of like, you know, the Portuguese Man of War

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Speaker 4: is essentially a colony of independent, very small organisms functioning

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Speaker 4: as a super colony that appears like one organism from

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Speaker 4: far away.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, sort of like the human The human being is

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Speaker 6: a combination, complex, combination of cells and bios, all of

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Speaker 6: that good stuff. This one just happens to be one

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Speaker 6: that in this particular case is very specifically serving the

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Speaker 6: interests of Russia up until you know, the whole coup thing,

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Speaker 6: which was weird, and I think the reason all of

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Speaker 6: this still perplexes me where I'm like, you know, we

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Speaker 6: we even conjectured i think with Jake Hanrahan where it

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Speaker 6: was sort of like could it have been a manufactured thing?

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Speaker 3: You know, there's so many questions around that it was

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Speaker 3: just real weird.

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Speaker 6: And then this guy's plane gets well, we don't know

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Speaker 6: if it was shot. We didn't, we don't have evidence

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Speaker 6: of that, I don't believe yet, but falls out of

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Speaker 6: the sky. And another thing we talked about with Jake

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Speaker 6: Hanrahan was the the seeming issues with gravity that opponents

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Speaker 6: of Vladimir Putin tend to face.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they faced them head on.

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Speaker 6: Usually to me, when this news popped, I think probably

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Speaker 6: to all of us, we were much more inclined to

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Speaker 6: be like, oh, yeah, that wasn't manufactured. That guy was

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Speaker 6: doing a thing and Putin popped him out of the sky,

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Speaker 6: or did he.

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Speaker 3: We'll get into some of that too.

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Speaker 6: God, this stuff is as greasy as bubbles from Trailer

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Speaker 6: Park Boys would say.

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Speaker 4: Love it, love it. Also check out the sea shanty

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Speaker 4: that Trailer Park Boys did. It's all about cats. It's

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Speaker 4: very good. So, like we talked about in our previous

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Speaker 4: primer episode on Wagner, before all this went down, before

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Speaker 4: these conspiracies came to fruition, these Wagner guys, they get

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Speaker 4: into all kinds of high jinks.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 4: They got international notoriety in the Dombas War back in

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Speaker 4: twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, and since that point they have

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Speaker 4: been involved in multiple coups and civil wars across the

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Speaker 4: continent of Africa. In the Middle East. They fought in Sudan, Mali, Mozambique.

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Speaker 4: And what they're doing in those situations is exerting Russian

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Speaker 4: influence and interest by proxy, they are resource extracting and

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Speaker 4: force projecting. As we established earlier, Wagner in its heyday

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Speaker 4: got a percentage a vig of every resource when they

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Speaker 4: interfered or when they, excuse me, interceded in the country's activity.

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Speaker 2: Oh, exactly, they're getting their cut. Just to clarify there,

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Speaker 2: the dawnbas War, if you're not aware, is the conflict

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Speaker 2: between Russia and Ukraine that started back in twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 2: as you said, Ben, and that is really one of

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Speaker 2: the things that has just kind of continued when there

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Speaker 2: were separatists inside Ukraine that were you at least according

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Speaker 2: to the best knowledge that we have, they're Russian supported

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Speaker 2: operating inside Ukraine, and then large conflicts started there and

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Speaker 2: then the Wagner came in to kind of fill in

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Speaker 2: what a military would.

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Speaker 4: Do one hundred percent. Yeah, And Wagner was also up

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Speaker 4: until quite recently a cult of personality similar to Heart

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Speaker 4: of Darkness or Apocalypse.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 4: The followers of Pragosion treated him like a real life

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Speaker 4: Colonel Kurtz or like Judge Holden, probably one of the

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Speaker 4: best villains in American literature. Check out Blood Meridian by

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Speaker 4: Kormack McCarthy. They treated Progosion as though he could do

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Speaker 4: no wrong, and internal tensions arose. The Russian Ministry of

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Speaker 4: Defense was beefed up with Progosion for a long time.

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Speaker 4: Eventually it boiled over. And what you were referencing earlier,

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Speaker 4: Nol Wagner marched on Moscow unsuccessfully and for a short time,

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Speaker 4: for like twenty three hours around June twenty fourth, twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty three. And if you look back now, analysts will

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Speaker 4: overwhelmingly say by hook or by crook, this is what

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Speaker 4: led to Pregosians aircraft accident.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and as we said before, allegedly it began because

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Speaker 2: of Wagner group what I don't know what you'd call it?

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Speaker 2: A group of Wagners. We're allegedly attacked by the Russian military,

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Speaker 2: either accidentally or purposefully, which then led them to march

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Speaker 2: on Moscow. So just just who knows exactly what happened?

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Speaker 2: Those are the reports we have access to.

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Speaker 4: You know, it makes me think of I was just

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Speaker 4: listening to our earlier episode on controlling the future via

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Speaker 4: controlling the past, and Matt, you brought up this excellent

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Speaker 4: group name for historians.

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Speaker 3: What was it?

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Speaker 4: No, it was an argumentation of his.

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Speaker 2: My idea that was the author.

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Speaker 3: I yeah, no, it's good.

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Speaker 6: I mean again, it's all about perspective. And as we've

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Speaker 6: started to see much more and more in these days,

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Speaker 6: it starts to feel a little more nineteen eighty fourish

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Speaker 6: by the day in terms of like what is objective

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Speaker 6: truth that at some point leaves perspective behind entirely and

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Speaker 6: it becomes just like which fabrication have you decided to

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Speaker 6: throw your lot in with?

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Speaker 2: You know?

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Speaker 4: So maybe on that note, maybe you can help us out.

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Speaker 4: Fellow conspiracy realist, what is the correct group name for

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Speaker 4: some Wagner boys? Is it a mutiny of Wagner's? I

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Speaker 4: don't think old VP would like that one. Let's give

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Speaker 4: you the official story of what happens. According to Russia's

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Speaker 4: Emergency Ministry, Progolsion and company die in an airplane crash

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Speaker 4: on August twenty third, twenty twenty three. We did a

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Speaker 4: strange news piece immediately after. He was in a relatively

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Speaker 4: small plane and rooted from Moscow to Saint Petersburg. There

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Speaker 4: were only ten people on the plane, seven Wagner, two pilots,

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Speaker 4: one flight attendant. Because there's always an innocent bystander.

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Speaker 3: And like right off the rip.

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Speaker 6: We even have you know, opposing versions of the stories

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Speaker 6: to that, some people saying it didn't make sense for

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Speaker 6: him to be back on the way to Saint Petersburg.

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Speaker 6: His interests were in Africa, you know, he like and

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Speaker 6: there was I believe an incident in the past where

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Speaker 6: a plane went down that he was on the manifest for.

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Speaker 6: But then he turned up, you know, all well and

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Speaker 6: good later. So this is like, these are tactics. There's

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Speaker 6: reason to disbelieve the official narrative. Not to mention the

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Speaker 6: fact that we're never going to see an independent investigation

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Speaker 6: of any of this stuff. You know, folks with the

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Speaker 6: Russian government have said that they've done DNA right, DNA

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Speaker 6: samples or whatever kind of irol.

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Speaker 2: You know, well, it's so weird because we're going to

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Speaker 2: get into this guys. But just to point out there

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Speaker 2: you may have seen as you're listening to this, if

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Speaker 2: you're searching through there are reports of him showing up

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Speaker 2: other places in the world alive today as we're recording

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Speaker 2: this episode. So just like Tupac, it's so similar. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: let's keep going.

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Speaker 6: I guess the point here just to put like a

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Speaker 6: little bow on it. I guess is that when you

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Speaker 6: have a government that is inherently siloing information, just by

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Speaker 6: their very nature, it makes these kinds of conspiracy theories.

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Speaker 3: It gives them a lot more air, a lot more

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Speaker 3: room to grow and breathe. Yeah, I think, yeah, agreed.

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Speaker 4: Our So we saw that everyone in the world, every

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Speaker 4: credible source in the world, assumed this aircraft accident was

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Speaker 4: not a random malfunction. Initial reports claimed that the plane

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Speaker 4: was shot down by Russian air defense, and that came

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Speaker 4: from Wagner itself. Western intelligence later looked at this and said,

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Speaker 4: they probably weren't shot down because we sort of, you know,

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Speaker 4: follow the missiles. They said, there was an explosion aboard

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Speaker 4: the craft, and to your point, Pregosion is a sneaky,

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Speaker 4: sneaky boy, or he was. He is a little rascal.

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Speaker 4: So a lot of credible analysts thought it would be

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Speaker 4: possible or not outside of the realm of possibility, that

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Speaker 4: he had faked his own demise, and later the Russian

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Speaker 4: government did appear to confirm his death through genetic testing.

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Speaker 4: They claimed that according to their forensics, the identities of

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Speaker 4: all ten people on the craft had been established and

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Speaker 4: all ten of them corresponded to someone published on the

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Speaker 4: flight manifest So the next question is who ordered this explosion?

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Speaker 4: We mentioned this earlier.

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Speaker 3: I love this.

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Speaker 4: I think you should leave now. A hot dog car

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Speaker 4: crashes through the store. There's a guy in a hot

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Speaker 4: dog costume saying it could be any one of us.

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Speaker 2: We gotta find out who did this.

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Speaker 6: So well, you know, and and to your point, been

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Speaker 6: with that clip that you play where Putin just kind

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Speaker 6: of casually drops a tiny little mention of this incident.

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Speaker 6: There are some in the media, you know, or analysts,

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Speaker 6: I guess, especially because there's quite a few Russian journalists

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Speaker 6: who maybe don't quite toe the party line, who have

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Speaker 6: actually been exiled and like live in Germany.

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Speaker 3: And I'm kind of so I should have written down

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Speaker 3: the names.

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Speaker 6: But I saw some interviews with a few of them

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Speaker 6: who were saying that is an example of Putin basically

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Speaker 6: saying yeah I did this without saying yeah I did this,

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Speaker 6: and that it's his way of like he does this

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Speaker 6: kind of stuff all the time while not openly acknowledging

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Speaker 6: it or admitting it. He kind of wants people to

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Speaker 6: think he did it, even if maybe they didn't find

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Speaker 6: his body it's in his best interest to think that

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Speaker 6: they for people to think that he did it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, anything that makes him scarier, right, not only to

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Speaker 2: the to his enemies, but to people who have to

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Speaker 2: follow orders from him, that's probably a great thing for him,

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Speaker 2: or at least he perceives it as such. And you know, oh, man,

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Speaker 2: I had a whole point about this, Oh, Pregosian didn't

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Speaker 2: just have enemies in Russia, even though he was pretty

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Speaker 2: much fighting for them. He had enemies, you know, in

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Speaker 2: Ukraine and all of the people who are allied to

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Speaker 2: defend Ukraine now all the NATO countries in the US.

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Speaker 6: So, I mean, a soldier of fortune is not someone

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Speaker 6: who's exactly known for their you know, stand up attitude

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Speaker 6: and then like and steadfastness. You know, there's someone who

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Speaker 6: will basically work for whoever is the highest bidder in

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Speaker 6: exchange for cash, capital assets. You know, I mean, this

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Speaker 6: is not someone that cares about making friends.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Also, sof doesn't have a very long shelf life, you

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Speaker 4: know what I mean. So it's like, right now, the

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Speaker 4: current running theories for the demise of Progosion are a

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Speaker 4: direct order from Latimir Putin. Possible third party leveraging the chaos.

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Speaker 4: To your point, Matt, this would be ah, this would

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Speaker 4: be an opportunity or an act by one of Bragosian's many,

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Speaker 4: many internal enemies. The thing that gallows humor here, the

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Speaker 4: thing that is amazing and cracks me up right now,

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Speaker 4: is that absolutely no one is pretending it was an accident.

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Speaker 4: Everyone is in who done it mode automatically.

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Speaker 6: There's no way the time, it just doesn't know, there's

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Speaker 6: no But also not to mention, and I can't remember

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Speaker 6: if we mentioned this quite yet. Everybody else that was

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Speaker 6: on that plane, besides the unfortunate presence of the flight attendant,

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Speaker 6: they were all high ups in the organization too, So

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Speaker 6: it was like a kind of a one shot kill

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Speaker 6: for like some serious muscle in terms of leadership in Wagner.

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Speaker 2: But this is why it's the perfect thing, guys, because

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Speaker 2: it is it is plausible that a plane crashes. That happens.

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Speaker 2: Planes crash, they do, small private planes do crash.

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Speaker 6: Coincidences, though, man, they're never they're never coincidences.

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Speaker 2: I know, but that but that's the the messed up

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00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:16,840
Speaker 2: perfect thing. What are we going to do about it?

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Speaker 2: What is anybody gonna do about it? Planes crash man,

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00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 2: what are you going to do?

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00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I believe you. Know.

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00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:25,880
Speaker 6: They were saying it was too high to have been

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Speaker 6: shot down by like a shoulder mounted weapon of some kind,

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Speaker 6: like a like a rocket launcher or something. It could

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Speaker 6: have been what you were saying, been some kind of

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Speaker 6: anti aircraft situation, But I think the prevailing theory might

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Speaker 6: be that it.

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Speaker 3: Was some sort of device on the plane itself.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the West is thinking on board explosive sabotage, right,

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Speaker 4: which means the timer was either activated in the air,

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Speaker 4: remotely activated, or the time the clock started ticking around

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Speaker 4: left off, all three of which are plausible, or we

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Speaker 4: got ourselves a gremlin situation.

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Speaker 2: Well, maybe could have been a gremlin on the plane.

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00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:11,639
Speaker 2: But do you guys remember back in April in Strange

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00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 2: News we talked about a Russian vlagger that was killed

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Speaker 2: while in a wasn't it a Wagner bar or something,

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Speaker 2: and a woman brought in an explosive device, edit it

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Speaker 2: to the guy and it ended up exploding and killing him.

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Speaker 3: Mm hmmm.

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Speaker 2: That was in Saint Petersburg.

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Speaker 4: Well, no one's gonna accuse human forces of creativity nor originality,

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Speaker 4: but the like this is where we're at, you know,

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Speaker 4: and that's an excellent precedent to set there, Matt. There

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Speaker 4: you have it, folks. The head of an enormously dangerous,

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Speaker 4: at times rogue mercenary military force just left the big

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00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:55,360
Speaker 4: chess board. But all the soldiers remain. After the leader's demise,

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Speaker 4: what happens to them, you know, what will become of

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Speaker 4: Russi Army. It's kind of like asking what happens to

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Speaker 4: Coca Cola when all the people with the secret recipe

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00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 4: ride the same plane and die. We're gonna pause for

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Speaker 4: a word from our sponsors and then we'll dive in.

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Speaker 3: Here's where it gets crazy.

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Speaker 4: Yes, the Wagner folks, the name brand might change, but

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Speaker 4: they're still going to be around. Armies are a lot

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Speaker 4: like a snowball, a lot like an avalanche. There's an inertia.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: Once something gets going, it is incredibly difficult to stop it.

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Speaker 4: You can change the name, right, Oh no, now we're Constellis.

346
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 4: We're so different, Now we're Infinity whatever. But you can

347
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,920
Speaker 4: cut off the head, you can fire or kill the leadership.

348
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 4: You can make all sorts of you know, little paperwork

349
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 4: laws restricting saying the name. But you cannot unteach the skills.

350
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Speaker 4: You cannot remove the experience. It is incredibly difficult, virtually

351
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 4: impossible to keep an eye on every small group or

352
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 4: loan operator that sets up shop afterwards.

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Speaker 2: Dude, I was just reading about again the coups in Africa,

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Speaker 2: and we talked about that recently, and just about the

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Speaker 2: splitting of militaries in several African countries. I think it

356
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Speaker 2: was Niger I want to say, yeah, it was specifically

357
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 2: I was reading about. Oh, I don't think it was,

358
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,120
Speaker 2: but it was a it was a recent coup where

359
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,399
Speaker 2: it was two factions of the military itself that split apart,

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Speaker 2: and there were two leaders. One of them is running

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Speaker 2: like a special forces kind of group and then the

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Speaker 2: other one is the official you know, military of the

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Speaker 2: country's leader, and they are the two factions that are

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Speaker 2: fighting each other. And so it just it's reminded me

365
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 2: of that bend where as you're saying, like, once you

366
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Speaker 2: once you create a military group that is cohesive and together,

367
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Speaker 2: there it is gonna stick around.

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00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean you can't. You can't unteach goria tactics,

369
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 4: you know what I mean, people are gonna remember it.

370
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:14,639
Speaker 4: Uh And and Matt to your point, I I need

371
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 4: to bone up on this. It could be Niger, it

372
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,679
Speaker 4: could be uh Mali, it could be a number of

373
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Speaker 4: other countries. It's pretty pretty deep water at this point.

374
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Speaker 2: There were so many Oh maybe it was Chad, I

375
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 2: can't remember.

376
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 3: It's always chad Man. There's Chad's chadding around.

377
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 4: There's there's also a strong sense to this point that

378
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin, the Putin administration wants some version of Wagner,

379
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 4: indeed needs some version of Wagner. We have to remember

380
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 4: they exist to give the Russian state plausible deniability. The

381
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 4: need for that does not dissipate just because seven guys

382
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 4: are dead.

383
00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 6: Well, but it does give you a vacuum that you

384
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 6: can then fill yourself with your handpicked successors. Because while

385
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 6: it might not be an extension, well, it is an

386
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 6: extension of the government. Why it might not be a

387
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 6: direct wing of the government or branch, there's influence there.

388
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 6: There's got to be friendlies within the organization, you know.

389
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 6: And maybe this is just Putin rooting out the folks

390
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 6: that were starting to kind of buck on him a

391
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 6: little bit. And now he's got the ability to insert

392
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 6: the people into the situation that he wants to make

393
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 6: them back to being his little pet army again quite possibly.

394
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 4: You know that's I'm glad you're bringing that up, because

395
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 4: now there are several options on the table. One Russia

396
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 4: attempts to completely dismantle Wagner. It's possible in a legal sense,

397
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 4: it's far less likely in practice, to your point that,

398
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 4: given Wagner's entrenched established rules in the African theater. And

399
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 4: then the second one Russia attempts to co opt to

400
00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 4: digest Wagner. Right, let's get rid of the guys who

401
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 4: are being a little too loud, and let's absorb the

402
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 4: rest of the operation in the Ministry of Defense. And

403
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,439
Speaker 4: this was something that Progulsion was fighting for quite some time.

404
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 4: One of his big internal rivals was a guy named

405
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 4: Sergi Shoigu, who is or Shoiku we are not native

406
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 4: Russian speakers. He was He's the big guy, the Grand

407
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 4: Puba of the Defense Ministry or Ministry of Defense. And

408
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 4: those guys hated each other because they were always trying.

409
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 4: They were always like pissing on each other's fire hydrants. Basically,

410
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 4: it's not what fire hydrants are for. You know, They're

411
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 4: related to liquid one way or the other.

412
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 3: They're either getting his daughter, they're shooting stuff out. No,

413
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 3: it's true. Isn't that weird?

414
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 6: Though you think about it, like why is that? Never mind,

415
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 6: we can conversation for another day.

416
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 4: So they're mainly their main use now is to establish

417
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 4: whether or not you are a robot online. I think

418
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 4: just recones that wheels.

419
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,479
Speaker 3: And motorcycles or whatever. Doors.

420
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,959
Speaker 4: Yeah, but there's a there's a third option, which I

421
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 4: think would be ideal for the Kremlin. It's to keep

422
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:13,159
Speaker 4: Wagner overall what you can save of it as the

423
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 4: same thing like get new leadership.

424
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, by the way, Ben, it just occurred to

425
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 6: me if there were a Gremlin play, it would be

426
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 6: a Kremlin Gremlin perfect.

427
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:25,160
Speaker 3: I'm just perfect.

428
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: I can't even know.

429
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 3: You have to we agree.

430
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 4: We agreed to yes and each other a long time ago.

431
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 2: You're right, you're right, Bye, bad bye, bad dude.

432
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 6: Really quickly, I went and saw a comedy show the

433
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 6: other night with Brett Gellman, who plays the conspiracy Yeah. Yeah,

434
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 6: and his solo thing was really good. Like his show

435
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 6: that he did, I won't spoil it, but he wasn't

436
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 6: very good at yes ending. He was really into like

437
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 6: shutting people down and maybe it was kind of his style,

438
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 6: but it made me really uncomfortable. That is, like, I

439
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:58,959
Speaker 6: hadn't been to an improv show in a while. They

440
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 6: did like half of the shows improv, and he would

441
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 6: just be like, no, that's not how this is gonna go.

442
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 6: It's gonna go like this, even when reacts, you know,

443
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:08,959
Speaker 6: you know, a full disclosure.

444
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 4: I know those guys, even with even with my buddy Kevin, I.

445
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 3: Think Kevin was the main dude.

446
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 6: And then there was Amber from from Archer, who was great.

447
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 6: Everyone was great, and and Bratt was funny. But I

448
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 6: just found that it was sort of like, I'm gonna

449
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 6: do improv a little bit different.

450
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 4: Welcome to the school of no.

451
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 2: But yes, sorry.

452
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 4: Bruske Bien, you have Devney Progosia school of improv. He's

453
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 4: not exactly dull close. So there's there's this idea that

454
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 4: you could change the leadership, keep the experience right, keep

455
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 4: the Hoy paloy, keep the infantry, the rank and file.

456
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 4: But if you look at the boffins in these various

457
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 4: Western think tanks, they feel this is possible but unlikely. Instead,

458
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 4: there's another mergent option, and it's got that kind of

459
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 4: new car smell. Why not just engage another Russian based

460
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 4: private military corporation or company, just change the brand name,

461
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 4: but just put them into the same job position, the

462
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 4: same day to day operations. You know, be like, hey,

463
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 4: this used to be you know what, I'll take the potshots.

464
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 4: This used to be Comcast, but now it's Exfinity. Don't worry,

465
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 4: We're still in charge of the coup.

466
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 6: So there are enough of these outfits around to just

467
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 6: do the old switcheroo.

468
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 2: Well, no, you just create one, right, But that's what

469
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 2: Ben's saying, like, you go, oh, here's the new thing.

470
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 3: Wait, wait, create them from what though?

471
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 6: Obviously you need this organization because of their manpower and

472
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 6: because of their whatever.

473
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 3: Right.

474
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: Well maybe I'm wrong, but Ben, I think that's what

475
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 2: you're saying. You create the corporate entity, right because all

476
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 2: that takes is a bank and an address and a

477
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 2: couple other things.

478
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 3: Then you staff it with your own So take.

479
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 2: This the Wagner staff.

480
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 3: All you shuffle them around.

481
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 2: You guys are gone. We're dissolving this company now. Everybody

482
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 2: walk over here. Okay, now stand here, take this corporate

483
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 2: t shirt.

484
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 6: But Ben, to your Kurt's Judge kind of point earlier,

485
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 6: Wasn't there a lot of fear and loyalty within the

486
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 6: Wagner organization like that? Isn't that how he got them

487
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 6: to march with him against the country that they're supposedly protecting.

488
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 6: I just have a hard time believing that all of

489
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 6: those people, without certain dispensations, you know, would just like

490
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 6: do what you're saying.

491
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm honest.

492
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 4: I think we're all right, We're all correct in looking

493
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 4: at this. What we need to understand is in this

494
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 4: sort of bloody business, they're always going to be men

495
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 4: like this, They're always going to be forces. There will

496
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 4: always be an alternative, right if the first one doesn't

497
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 4: work out. To your point, Noel, and to your point, Matt,

498
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 4: there will always be the opportunity unity to do. You know,

499
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 4: the military version of a new LLC. Just walk across

500
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 4: the street. We got a different office. Give us fifteen

501
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 4: minutes to see some new badges on the uniform I

502
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 4: was looking into now. Think tanks are really not something

503
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 4: you should trust. Shout out to our pal Jake, and

504
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 4: shout out to our good friend Robert Evans. A lot

505
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 4: of think tanks, unfortunately have dirty money or agendas supporting them,

506
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 4: and with that being said, if you understand that lens,

507
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 4: then we can understand that they are doing very good work.

508
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 4: They are very very intelligent people. And so I cast

509
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 4: no dispersion on some of the folks who were quoting

510
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 4: Kendall Taylor, Andrew or Andrea. Kendall Taylor is a Russian

511
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 4: intelligence expert at the Washington based Center for New American Security,

512
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 4: and say what you want about CNAs. This person. She

513
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,479
Speaker 4: is legit, she's on the money, and she's sharp, and

514
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 4: she says she thinks that what's going to happen is

515
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 4: parts of Wagner are going to be folded in under

516
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 4: the existing Russian structure in some way, and they're going

517
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 4: to be sort of sold off there. They're no longer

518
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 4: going to be one concentrated thing. They're just going to

519
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 4: be a bunch of subcontractors, which also makes them more

520
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 4: difficult to erase.

521
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 6: But Benmus, I must come back to my previous question.

522
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 6: Are there are there like a bunch of these types

523
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 6: of operations just ready to to hop too again?

524
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 4: Yes, there there will always be men for this sort

525
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 4: of job, you know. And it's a good question. It's

526
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 4: a disturbing question. More people should ask more often. Our

527
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 4: expert that we mentioned earlier, Kendall Taylor. She notes that

528
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 4: Russia is going to continue to use pmc's private military

529
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 4: contract the United States is going to continue to mess

530
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 4: with Halliburn. They're just going to be spread about in

531
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 4: different ways. Like if you the best way to say

532
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 4: it is the evil way to say it is if

533
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 4: you run a shady mercenary army. It's a great time

534
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 4: to put in an application to Russia. Just find Vladimir

535
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 4: Putin on LinkedIn and say, hey, Bud, sorry about the planes.

536
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 4: I got some stuff going on. This is the kind

537
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 4: of thing that keeps Eric Prince, the owner of Academi

538
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 4: Wait Exy, Wait, Blackwater Wait constellis awake at nights salivating

539
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 4: government contracts. We've got to go to the La Times.

540
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 4: They have a great exploration of this, and Noel, I

541
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 4: think this speaks directly to the point that you're raising.

542
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it does.

543
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 6: Ben. In this piece, they speak to a Ukrainian open

544
00:31:56,920 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 6: source intelligence company whose business it is to track these

545
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 6: types of organizations, and shockingly, I guess, at least to me,

546
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 6: they tracked thirty seven of these types of contractors.

547
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 3: And I guess my question really was I mean, I totally.

548
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 6: See what you mean about there will always be men

549
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 6: that will do stuff like this, but will there be

550
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 6: like hundreds of them, thousands of them under a single banner?

551
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 3: You know what I mean?

552
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 6: Because that to me seemed like what the benefit of

553
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 6: Wagner was was that they were all this like, you know,

554
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 6: army of scale that could be bought and paid and

555
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:32,719
Speaker 6: paid for. It makes me think of like stuff from like,

556
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 6: you know, the Golden what are they called in Game

557
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 6: of Thrones? There was like a whole mercenary army that

558
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 6: they hired that was literally a massive army of the

559
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 6: scale of like the kind of army a country would have.

560
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 4: Yeah. Absolutely, raise a very good point there, man, because

561
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 4: we're thinking about the Golden Company.

562
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 3: That's a Golden company.

563
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, and they were sort of the Wagner of that story.

564
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 4: The issue is exactly what you describe economy of scale.

565
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 4: If you look at it now, there are two outfits

566
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 4: that are closer to being the next Wagner. One is

567
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 4: called Convoy sadly not affiliated with the amazing song by C. W. McCall.

568
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 4: Can we even can we play a clip?

569
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 3: Shortly? Isn't there a movie?

570
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 6: Too?

571
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 3: Is called Convoy. It's drug drivers.

572
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 4: So so just so Matt Nolan and I and and

573
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 4: you played along home, fellow conspiracy realist can vibe with this.

574
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 4: We're gonna play just a short clip of Convoy.

575
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 2: A breaker one nine this year as a rubber duck.

576
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 3: You've got a copy on the fan, come on, oh yeah, Convoy.

577
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 3: The song is from Convoy the movie.

578
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 6: So that's pregosia I am for good, buddy, dude. The

579
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 6: the poster of Convoy is so horny, it's like just

580
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 6: just ripped Chris Kristofferson getting felt real nice and.

581
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,879
Speaker 3: Good by his lady co star for the film. Yeah,

582
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 3: for the film.

583
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 6: But it's also one of those like hand drawn kind

584
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,280
Speaker 6: of Indiana Jones type posters.

585
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 4: Yeah.

586
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,280
Speaker 3: So it just has like extra drama.

587
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 6: It honestly looks like the cover of like a dime

588
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 6: store kind of romance novel.

589
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 4: Little Steamy, Yeah, little little Lurid.

590
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 3: Indeed. Yeah.

591
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 4: Convoy, the private military contractor is pretty young. It was

592
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 4: established late last year by a guy named Sergi Askyonov,

593
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 4: the head of the head of the Interim attempt at

594
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 4: Russian Governance in Crimea. At Crimea and Putin's administration took

595
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 4: over that that bit of land back in twenty fourteen.

596
00:34:55,880 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 4: Convoy is right now. Convoy is the suited to replace Wagner.

597
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 4: It's run by a guy who used to hang with Pregosian,

598
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 4: a guy named Konstantine Piccolov. So we got the experience

599
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 4: and that's not the only thing that's right.

600
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 6: Convoy since forming has received quite.

601
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 3: A bit of capital in the form of donations. Sure.

602
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, the quotation fingers and donations right untrackable. People are

603
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:34,800
Speaker 6: getting something from their donations, maybe trackable, but the intention,

604
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 6: I believe is something a little underhanded here, if I'm

605
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:40,280
Speaker 6: not mistaken.

606
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 4: Is it a donation or is it an investment? A

607
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:50,280
Speaker 4: lot of those donations to our sound effect, they came

608
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 4: from a bank called VTB, which is mostly owned by

609
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 4: the Russian state, and they came from an oligarch in

610
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 4: Putin's new network guy named Rutenberg. So we've got second

611
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 4: the connections. If you want to learn more about these connections,

612
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 4: check out, of course sad olagark by er pal Jake,

613
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 4: and check out the Dossier Center, which tracks what they

614
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 4: see as criminal activity and network associations for the Kremlin. However,

615
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 4: there is a PEPSI for every Coca Cola, and if

616
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 4: convoys are Coca Cola, then the Pepsi here is an

617
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:33,399
Speaker 4: outfit called Reduced m hmm.

618
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's a great article you found in the Eurasian

619
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 6: Times talking about how you know, Wagner is out, Redout

620
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 6: is in or redo, however you want to pronounce it.

621
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 6: You know, they're filling that vacuum as a power vacuum.

622
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 6: I mean, I'm from the moment there was news of

623
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 6: the demise that suppose I'm still not convinced the demise

624
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 6: of Pregosian. Any of these burgeoning military you know, extra

625
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 6: military organizations must have been just champ at the bit.

626
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, put man because Reduct or Pepsi in the conversation,

627
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 4: was involved in action protecting Russian interest in Syria. They're

628
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 4: also one of the first forces on the ground in

629
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 4: the twenty twenty two Ukraine invasion. There's an immediate problem

630
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:24,439
Speaker 4: that arises. Both of these groups, Convoy and Redout. They

631
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 4: are tiny, infinitesimal in comparison to Wagner, and Wagner itself

632
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 4: pretty small, you know. It's like, at the at the

633
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 4: craziest estimate, Wagner is like fifty thousand operators.

634
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,320
Speaker 3: That's a lot.

635
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 6: But what are we talking for, reduct Ben, do you

636
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 6: have a sense from maybe some of these fractionally sized organizations.

637
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's thirty seven guys, serious, No, no, because I

638
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 4: was in my mind.

639
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 6: It could mean a lot of things. It could mean

640
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 6: the size of like a really high quality strike force.

641
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 6: Are like swat team.

642
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 4: Yeah they're, but we're talking bigger than that, right, Yeah, hundreds, Yeah,

643
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,919
Speaker 4: they're they're bigger. They're in the thousands, both of them,

644
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 4: but they're they're not in the fifty thousand range. And

645
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 4: you know, unless there's some mercenary version of a merger acquisition.

646
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 4: These groups also, no matter how many people they have,

647
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 4: they don't have the same field experience you find in Wagner.

648
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: They don't have the.

649
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 4: People who have shut down puppet governments right or instituted

650
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 4: their own. Wagner can go toe to toe with France

651
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:41,720
Speaker 4: in Africa, which is nuts.

652
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 3: That is much more Golden Company style.

653
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:47,720
Speaker 6: And Ben, I don't think we've mentioned this in this episode,

654
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 6: but I know that we have in the past. That

655
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,919
Speaker 6: one tactic that you know, you know, we talked about

656
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 6: how pregosion really is kind of a culture personality or

657
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 6: was a culti personality. So there's some loyalty to him,

658
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 6: least of all because he got some folks out of

659
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 6: some prison sentences in order, you know, for like a

660
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 6: lighter sentence or like a furlough or something if you

661
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 6: fight for his group. Surely these other smaller groups can't

662
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 6: offer quite the same unless again, maybe the goal with

663
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:19,439
Speaker 6: the Putin is to combine them, rebrand them, and then

664
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 6: do some of the same stuff that Pregosian was doing

665
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:22,800
Speaker 6: off books.

666
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, man, And it makes sense logically. Pregoshon is

667
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 4: exceptional because he built Wagner by gathering more than three

668
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 4: hundred different private companies together Convoy and REDDA. They cannot

669
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 4: say that that's part of why Wagner became as much

670
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 4: of a cult as it was a mercenary group at

671
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:51,280
Speaker 4: the end. And one thing is for sure, the need

672
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:55,479
Speaker 4: for something like Wagner exists for the Russian government, which

673
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 4: means that need will be satisfied one way or the

674
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 4: other by hook or by crooks. So with this in mind,

675
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 4: the ultimate analysis is the Kremlin will move quickly to

676
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 4: contain and stabilize a leader to lists Wagner, and that

677
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 4: is fragmenting balkanizing. As we record this containment to your point, Noal,

678
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,919
Speaker 4: whatever form it takes, it will one hundred percent aim

679
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 4: to maintain business as usual, force projection, resource extraction, running

680
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 4: the coups.

681
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 3: And I guess the thing that keeps sticking in the

682
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 3: back of my mind is like.

683
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 6: If Russia is so contained and they kind of answer

684
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 6: to no one, barely acknowledge the international community, you know,

685
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 6: accept as interlopers on what is theirs? Why do they

686
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 6: need that's plausible deniability so much? Is it just in

687
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 6: the face of like international courts and war crimes and stuff,

688
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 6: or when they're poking their nose in places that don't

689
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:57,720
Speaker 6: belong to them and stealing resources on behalf of Russia.

690
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 6: Russia can basically say, well, I don't know anying about that,

691
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 6: we didn't do that. But at the same time Putin

692
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 6: has said openly, you mentioned at the beginning of the

693
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 6: show that they're really good at stealing other people's stuff.

694
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:09,959
Speaker 6: So why the plausible deniability?

695
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 4: It's an interesting question because at some point does this

696
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:15,439
Speaker 4: not seem like.

697
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:16,240
Speaker 3: A fig leaf?

698
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 4: What would you if you were the president of the

699
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 4: United States? What would you say if it turned out

700
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 4: that you were not only engaging mercenaries to commit war crimes,

701
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,800
Speaker 4: but you were also taking people out of your prison

702
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 4: system and putting them in the field. This is a question.

703
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:42,280
Speaker 4: It's a difficult question to answer. I think we pause

704
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 4: for a word from our sponsor for a moment, and

705
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 4: then we return and talk about a very interesting point.

706
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 4: You brought up nol a convict army.

707
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 3: And we're back, Ben, Let's get right to it.

708
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:04,760
Speaker 6: What a what a way to attract loyal followers, loyal

709
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 6: militants into your group who potentially maybe have some street

710
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 6: fighting skills by legally busting them out of jail or

711
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:20,320
Speaker 6: prison right ilegally quotation fingers Again, a lot.

712
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 3: Of black box stuff going on in this part of

713
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 3: the world, you know what I mean.

714
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, if you make the laws, you decide what is legal.

715
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 4: It was a huge hit for Western propaganda, the idea

716
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 4: that Russian convicts even those who committed egregious violent crimes.

717
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 4: We're talking sexual assault, murders, you know, crimes against children.

718
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 4: Not to be too explicit, those folks were given plea deals,

719
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 4: the rumor went, in exchange for joining Wagner not to

720
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 4: be trained as operators, but to function as canon fodder.

721
00:42:56,520 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 4: And it turned out this was absolutely true, and as

722
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 4: a result, you know, when Wagner dissolves, this leads to

723
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:11,320
Speaker 4: a situation where in thousands of criminals are cut loose.

724
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 4: To your earlier point, man about nineteen eighty four, this

725
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 4: is what Winston Smith would call double plus un good.

726
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 4: But it's still like thousands, thousands monstrous people roaming free

727
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 4: as a bird. But that's still is less less of

728
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:36,240
Speaker 4: a threat than the larger instability issues facing the Russian

729
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 4: state and therefore the world very soon.

730
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean, you know a lot of analysts.

731
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 6: That I've been listening to and reading think that this

732
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:52,800
Speaker 6: is all kind of a sign of Russia's ultimate weakness.

733
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 6: That the reason that Wagner did what they did, or

734
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,720
Speaker 6: the Progosian defected in the way he did, was because

735
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 6: he lost faith in the operation. He lost faith in Putin,

736
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:05,400
Speaker 6: and he thinks Putin is no longer acting in the

737
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 6: best interest of the country. But again, it's you know,

738
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 6: it's really hard to nail down the motivations of a mercenary,

739
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,879
Speaker 6: you know what I mean. He's not acting on some

740
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 6: sort of like you know, taking a stand for what's

741
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 6: right exactly. He's just basically saying the winds have shifted,

742
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 6: you know, we are here to get paid and make

743
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 6: sure that we have the stuff we need. We think

744
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,240
Speaker 6: maybe Putin's not the guy to do that anymore, or something.

745
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 3: I don't know, but.

746
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 6: There is a lot of questioning about whether Putin's kind

747
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 6: of grasp is slipping.

748
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:46,320
Speaker 4: Right, allegations of dementia, allegations of possible terminal deteriorating nervous

749
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 4: system conditions right. Also in Progosion, I think we see

750
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 4: a real life version of a Colonel Kurtz, you know,

751
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 4: for fans a Heart of Darkness, or for people who

752
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 4: watch Apocalypse Now. The thing about Kurtz is that he

753
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 4: becomes a personification of war. He doesn't really want the

754
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 4: war to end, right, And you could say the same

755
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 4: about Pregosian, Like to your point, Noe, what are the

756
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 4: guy's ultimate aims?

757
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 5: What were they?

758
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 3: You know?

759
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 4: Did he want a peaceful, happy world? Did he want

760
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 4: the blood and treasure and the experience of chasing that?

761
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 4: It's a scary thing. The big I guess, from Wagner's

762
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 4: perspective and from the Russian perspective, their big moment in

763
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 4: the sun was the taking of Bakhmut the city in Ukraine,

764
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:45,800
Speaker 4: in eastern Ukraine. And unfortunately, even if you erase Wagner

765
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 4: from the board, the war in Ukraine will continue. The

766
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 4: Putin administration is definitely scrambling to try to maintain their

767
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 4: grip on various resources on the African continent and in

768
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 4: the Middle East. But even without Wagner, they still have

769
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 4: enough capability to continue this conflict. But their capabilities are finite.

770
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 4: Russia is a collapse state. It is a kleptocracy. That's

771
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 4: a problem.

772
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 3: You know.

773
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 4: You would think maybe that if you are not Russia,

774
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 4: or if you were opposed to Russia, it'd be very

775
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 4: good for that state to collapse. It would mean you

776
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 4: win the game. But the problem is, because Russia has

777
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:37,439
Speaker 4: never hesitated to pay blood for treasure, it still has

778
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 4: one more move to pool, a very dangerous move, because

779
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 4: Russia is a nuclear capable state.

780
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, I mean, I was.

781
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 6: I heard some stats recently about like the amount of

782
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 6: certain military gear that they possess in terms of tanks

783
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 6: and ships and whatever, and it's pretty negligible, like compare

784
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 6: to what the US and NATO and all that stuff has,

785
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:06,320
Speaker 6: Like it really pales in comparison. Uh, that's also partially

786
00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 6: probably another reason why they need to beef up their

787
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 6: military support with hiring these types of groups. But what

788
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 6: what does change the calculation entirely is their arsenal of

789
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:21,400
Speaker 6: nuclear weapons, their their nuclear submarines, and their ability to

790
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:26,240
Speaker 6: hit most of Europe directly from where.

791
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:29,759
Speaker 3: They are, you know, exactly. Yeah, it's a big deal.

792
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 6: I mean, like, you know, I went to Berlin a

793
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 6: couple of years, it's been almost two years now, and

794
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 6: a member of our party who was going to go

795
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 6: it was right when the Ukrainian War started, and they

796
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 6: opted not to come because there is that wild card

797
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 6: loose cannon energy around putin that he would do some

798
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 6: wild like that, and he said it what do they

799
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 6: call it, ben saber rattling, you know, that kind of stuff.

800
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 6: And that's that's the piece that he possesses the ability

801
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 6: to continue to leverage all this stuff, is that they

802
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 6: have the nukes.

803
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 4: Oh well, you know, that reminds me of that old

804
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:08,399
Speaker 4: Rby's commercial, We.

805
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:09,040
Speaker 3: Have the nukes.

806
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, where's the beef for Wendy's.

807
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 2: Yeah.

808
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 4: So that's that's the big elephant in the room right

809
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 4: of the globe, which is could there be a nuclear exchange.

810
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 4: The three biggest powers in the world geopolitically right now

811
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 4: are what we could call the Russian Crew, which would

812
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 4: be Iran, Syria, North Korea, deeprk maybe Venezuela if you

813
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:40,840
Speaker 4: want to put that in, and then there would be

814
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 4: the West, NATO, the US couple others. They're they're trying

815
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 4: to hit on India real hard, we'll see how it

816
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 4: works out. And then the third beat China, you know,

817
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:55,800
Speaker 4: bricks on bricks on bricks. These three primary powers, to

818
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 4: be very clear with everyone, save you some time if

819
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 4: you ever want to study international affairs in college, is

820
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,880
Speaker 4: what you need to know. Those three primary world powers

821
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 4: are right now all run by pretty elderly, pretty wild

822
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 4: ass dudes. They do not give up.

823
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:14,760
Speaker 6: Yeah, same kind of I mean, you know, I would

824
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 6: count Progosian as one of those elderly, wild ass dudes

825
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 6: who is just.

826
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:24,320
Speaker 3: Larger than life, you know. I mean, you don't get into.

827
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 6: That business of death dealing, you know, unless you've got

828
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,359
Speaker 6: I don't know, man, you got something going on, you know.

829
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 6: I mean, these are people that have been part of

830
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 6: the kinds of secret operations that maybe the KGB would

831
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 6: have been involved in. You know, people that have served

832
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 6: in a very different way from what we may think

833
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 6: of as military service.

834
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:51,479
Speaker 3: You know here in the United States, would I would think,

835
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 3: you know.

836
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 6: Not not to say that the United States military service

837
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 6: and like, you know, we do some dirt too, no

838
00:49:58,560 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 6: question about it. But you know, we know what the

839
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:04,920
Speaker 6: KGB gets up to. I mean, they're notoriously ruthless. And

840
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 6: I would assume that a regime run by the former

841
00:50:08,920 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 6: head of the KGB is going to deploy some of

842
00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 6: those types of tricks and some of that kind of

843
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 6: ruthless mentality, and then those are the types of people

844
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 6: that are going to gravitate towards a man like that.

845
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:23,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, very well said. You know, while while these three

846
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 4: large categories of powers are not adverse to a little

847
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 4: enemy of my enemy as my friend action, those relationships

848
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,879
Speaker 4: are the equivalent of one night stands. Both China and

849
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 4: the United States know that they will get a big

850
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 4: win if Russia falls, and Russia knows that they know that,

851
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:47,680
Speaker 4: So it's super awkward. That's why if you dig just

852
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 4: a bit, you'll see some strange bedfellows situations. We were

853
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 4: talking about this, Matt Noel and I were talking about

854
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 4: this off air a little while back, the US just

855
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 4: specifically warned North Korea not to aid Russia, and uh,

856
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 4: the leader of North Korea or d p r K

857
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 4: is is about to visit Vladimir Putin in person and

858
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 4: talk about working together and then Russia for their side.

859
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 4: They specifically warned Uncle Sam not to bring nukes over

860
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:23,439
Speaker 4: to the United Kingdom, which means it's time for old

861
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 4: Who's who's in charge of that place? Now?

862
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 3: Who's it's the king?

863
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 4: Right?

864
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:31,719
Speaker 6: I guess too much stuff going on over here to

865
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 6: keep tracking those those Brits. But yeah, Kim, you know

866
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 6: that seems fine, right, Putin and Kim together again.

867
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, they're just watching Police Academy like we do.

868
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 6: Match made and fascist heaven there it is. I mean,

869
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 6: really they they hurt each other.

870
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,920
Speaker 3: I mean, I mean seriously, that just sounds terrifying.

871
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 6: That sounds double plus plus triple plus un good bad bad,

872
00:51:59,320 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 6: not good.

873
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like, think about this. What does all this show us?

874
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 4: It shows us when we look at these conspiracies, which

875
00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 4: are not theories for the most part, When we look

876
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 4: at these conspiracies, it teaches us that the post Wagner

877
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,600
Speaker 4: world is not going to be much different. At first,

878
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:23,840
Speaker 4: There's one counterintuitive puzzle piece. Russia losing its Halliburton escalates

879
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 4: the danger for the continuation of the Russian state, and

880
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 4: when the Russian state feels endangered, it is increasingly likely

881
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:38,240
Speaker 4: to consider some moves that would otherwise not be seriously considered.

882
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,319
Speaker 6: You know, well, it's also like you have to think

883
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 6: about the state of Putin's mind and how he views

884
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:50,360
Speaker 6: his legacy, and is he the kind of guy that,

885
00:52:50,560 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 6: knowing that he's on the way out, why not just

886
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:54,720
Speaker 6: hit the big red button.

887
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 3: You know what I mean?

888
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:57,840
Speaker 2: Oh, dude, he's totally going to hit that button.

889
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:00,800
Speaker 4: You think, so not a wonder.

890
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:01,239
Speaker 3: I don't know.

891
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 6: I mean, I wonder, you know, I mean, it scares me.

892
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 6: You're right, it's scary, But also it makes me think

893
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:13,719
Speaker 6: what we do know. It would appear that this whole

894
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 6: situation with Wagner it was legit, and it was as

895
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:22,480
Speaker 6: a result of people in high up, people in that

896
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,360
Speaker 6: organization thinking that what Putin was doing wasn't good and

897
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:28,399
Speaker 6: was no longer serving their interests. I have a hard

898
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 6: time believing these smaller organizations won't feel similarly. But they

899
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 6: also might just look at it as an opportunity to

900
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 6: become something larger than what they are and therefore be

901
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 6: like yes, daddy all day long.

902
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:46,200
Speaker 4: Sure, perhaps until they find a new, higher paying daddy.

903
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 4: The way that the way that this kind of stuff works,

904
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 4: like the honest conspiracy realist perspective on a rush of

905
00:53:56,680 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 4: face with an existential threat and the likelihood of using nukes.

906
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:07,120
Speaker 4: It's not publicized as Vladimir Putin pushing you know, a

907
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 4: cartoon cartoon button or picking up a red landline phone

908
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:19,279
Speaker 4: and saying dah or whatever. It's more like the right right,

909
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:22,320
Speaker 4: you know, tell them there are no car washes in

910
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 4: Crimea or whatever. Instead it's it's a quote unquote totally

911
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 4: not associated with Russia, private military contractor that somehow quote

912
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:38,759
Speaker 4: unquote illegally acquires a low yield nuclear device, you know,

913
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 4: kind of like a bunker buster. And then Russia again

914
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 4: is the guy in the hot dog costume going, we

915
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 4: have to find who's responsible for this, or you could

916
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:53,400
Speaker 4: have a proxy force on the outside of the global

917
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 4: order already Think up Yongyang, think that's a rod and

918
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 4: they rain fire. In the case of North Korea, maybe

919
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 4: it comes from their newly minted apparently nuclear capable submarine.

920
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:10,240
Speaker 4: And the entire time that stuff happens, if it ever happens,

921
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 4: and let's hope it does it the entire time that happens.

922
00:55:13,280 --> 00:55:18,800
Speaker 4: The Russian state officially can sound like that old Shaggy song.

923
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:21,360
Speaker 4: Do you guys remember that Shaggy on.

924
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 6: There banging in the shower, all over the place, all over,

925
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 6: all over the apartment table.

926
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 4: It wasn't him, though they were both.

927
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:32,440
Speaker 6: Button naked and bang banging on the bathroom floor. It's

928
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 6: a real catchy bop. You almost have to like sing

929
00:55:34,520 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 6: the whole thing in your head. The best part is that,

930
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 6: Oh good.

931
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 2: The workaholics guys made a movie where he shows up

932
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 2: and I think he was gonna have to sing that song.

933
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 2: I think it was Shaggy. It's pretty great.

934
00:55:48,080 --> 00:55:49,720
Speaker 4: Former marine by the way.

935
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:53,239
Speaker 2: Yes, guys, it's sorry for being asked and jumping back in.

936
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:59,320
Speaker 2: But like we've never faced let me rephrase this, since

937
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 2: the Cold War right and the tensions occurring there, we've

938
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:09,160
Speaker 2: never had a global superpower facing a seriously existential annihilating

939
00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 2: threat right to where they are backed. Any any force

940
00:56:13,000 --> 00:56:15,360
Speaker 2: has been backed into a corner to where they feel like,

941
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 2: if we do not use everything we have, we as

942
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 2: a country will be extinct and I don't think we

943
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 2: are anywhere near that with Russia right now, so hopefully

944
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 2: that situation isn't going to come to fruition anytime soon.

945
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:34,880
Speaker 2: It does feel like I don't know if to me

946
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 2: that feels way off in the distance, like not possible

947
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:41,799
Speaker 2: because humanity will prevail in their thought of humanity needs

948
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:44,520
Speaker 2: to survive even if my country doesn't. Kind of thing.

949
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:48,680
Speaker 2: I really hope, I really really hope that's the situation

950
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:49,080
Speaker 2: where I.

951
00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:51,799
Speaker 6: Just think Putin's big enough of an a whole to

952
00:56:51,880 --> 00:56:55,360
Speaker 6: not think like that, especially if you know with the

953
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 6: the the unilateral nature of his power, you know that

954
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 6: he's bestowed upon himself and the ability for him not

955
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 6: to have to get sign off from others, that if

956
00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:08,799
Speaker 6: he did have some sort of mental you know, breakdown

957
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 6: or deterioration, that's something very very scary could happen. I mean,

958
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:14,840
Speaker 6: I'm not trying to freak anybody out. I'm just I

959
00:57:15,200 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 6: think about this. You know it does. But I agree

960
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:20,800
Speaker 6: with you, Matt. You know that it's certainly not as

961
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 6: bad as the Cold War, but in some ways it's

962
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 6: scarier because this is a person at the end of

963
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 6: his life or at the end of his legacy who

964
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:28,720
Speaker 6: really wants to make an impact.

965
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 4: It reminds me a little bit of the Automan Empire.

966
00:57:32,200 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 4: Thank goodness, you guys remember back in the day, Like,

967
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 4: thank goodness, they did not have nuclear capability. People weren't

968
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 4: really talking about and you expect then. But you're right,

969
00:57:43,520 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 4: it's not to that point yet. The issue is that

970
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:53,720
Speaker 4: the issue is that the instability escalates. And right now,

971
00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:58,800
Speaker 4: as weird as a counterintuitive again as it may sound,

972
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 4: the reality is simply this. There is a solid case

973
00:58:03,120 --> 00:58:07,880
Speaker 4: that the chaos Wagner spread during its heyday may well

974
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 4: end up being less dangerous than the chaos spread by

975
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 4: its death throes. And that's not saying that either case

976
00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 4: is in any way good. It's just saying there's bad

977
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:23,600
Speaker 4: and then there's worse, or there's worse and then there's

978
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 4: worse and worst, and then you know, dead hand because

979
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:30,120
Speaker 4: Putin woke up with a bad day in a case

980
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:30,479
Speaker 4: of the.

981
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 6: Craps trippity dippity dubb dub dubs double plus on good bad,

982
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 6: bad bad.

983
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 4: Quite So, I mean, for now, okay, we have to

984
00:58:39,480 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 4: do it. It is our want, it is our remit

985
00:58:43,200 --> 00:58:46,080
Speaker 4: in this continuing mission, folks, we have to give you

986
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:52,640
Speaker 4: what the Kremlin officially says. They deny any speculation that

987
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 4: they or Vladmir Putin directly ordered Pregosian's death. It's unfortunate

988
00:58:59,080 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 4: their investigating. That's the official line.

989
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:02,240
Speaker 3: You know.

990
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 4: There's some neo Nazis in Ukraine, they say that are

991
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 4: probably responsible, right, because it's a.

992
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 3: Line from the start, right right, right, Yeah.

993
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:18,520
Speaker 4: And while the form of Wagner's future role in Ukraine

994
00:59:18,640 --> 00:59:25,920
Speaker 4: is still under question, it will continue operations elsewhere in

995
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:30,560
Speaker 4: the Middle East, in the African continent, and those operations,

996
00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:34,280
Speaker 4: as balkanized or fragmented as they may become. They are

997
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 4: in frantic communication with the Russian Ministry of Defense. The

998
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:40,600
Speaker 4: names of the war may change, the names of the

999
00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:42,440
Speaker 4: chess pieces may evolve.

1000
00:59:42,560 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 3: Is that a castle?

1001
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:45,800
Speaker 4: Is it a rook? I'll tell you what. They do,

1002
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 4: the same thing from Kiev to Moscow, from Bamako to Bangi, Bengi,

1003
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:55,640
Speaker 4: if you wish. We can't make any mistake. The great

1004
00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:58,840
Speaker 4: game continues, and it does so at the expense of

1005
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:02,840
Speaker 4: innocent people all around the world. This is our Vagner

1006
01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:05,440
Speaker 4: up date. You know, if you if you work for

1007
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:07,120
Speaker 4: Vagner right to us.

1008
01:00:07,160 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 3: Can I just add one little thing.

1009
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 6: We talked about this offt of Mike, and I think

1010
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:13,600
Speaker 6: it's so fringy that it's almost not worth mentioning, but

1011
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:15,920
Speaker 6: I do think it's interesting. There's a guy by the

1012
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:20,520
Speaker 6: name of Professor Valerie Solova who has apparently had a

1013
01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 6: relationship with the Russian media for some time, making some

1014
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:27,880
Speaker 6: would say quite outrageous claims, and has been cast as

1015
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:29,600
Speaker 6: a bit of a conspiracy nut.

1016
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 3: But he has said openly a couple of things.

1017
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:37,760
Speaker 6: One that Progosian is in fact not dead but living

1018
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 6: on an island in Venezuela called Margarita Island, which is

1019
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:47,600
Speaker 6: also where Jimmy Buffett is living. He didn't actually die either.

1020
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:50,600
Speaker 6: They're hanging out there together sipin' marks. I'm kidding about

1021
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:53,200
Speaker 6: the second bar. It's both probably kidding level. But this

1022
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 6: guy's also claimed that Putin is on death's door, like

1023
01:00:58,080 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 6: he claims to have supporting docums men saying leaked documents

1024
01:01:01,800 --> 01:01:03,600
Speaker 6: saying that Putin is so.

1025
01:01:03,440 --> 01:01:07,200
Speaker 3: Ill that he might not last the year.

1026
01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 6: So yeah, definitely worth a little bit of rabbit holing

1027
01:01:12,120 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 6: on this guy. Professor Valerie soliv a largely a fringy,

1028
01:01:18,120 --> 01:01:20,360
Speaker 6: debunked kind of figure, but I didn't think it was interesting.

1029
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:22,360
Speaker 3: It came up in a couple spots.

1030
01:01:23,120 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 2: How do you spell that last name?

1031
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 3: It is so O l o v e y.

1032
01:01:29,520 --> 01:01:34,880
Speaker 4: So Again, the most important thing to remember from this episode,

1033
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:39,520
Speaker 4: from this update, or two things. If you are affiliated

1034
01:01:39,600 --> 01:01:43,680
Speaker 4: with Wagner, if you're affiliated with PMCs in general, and

1035
01:01:43,720 --> 01:01:46,640
Speaker 4: you know what I'm talking about, then do feel free

1036
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:52,000
Speaker 4: to write to us. We would love to hear from you. Second, actually,

1037
01:01:52,080 --> 01:01:56,440
Speaker 4: flip it. The most important thing. Innocent people who have

1038
01:01:56,840 --> 01:02:00,440
Speaker 4: no opportunity to make a choice here, they will suffer

1039
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:04,680
Speaker 4: the results of these great powers, of these pretty elderly,

1040
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:10,840
Speaker 4: pretty wild ass dudes once again making decisions for their

1041
01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:16,120
Speaker 4: version of a greater good, however bubbled, attenuated, narrowed that

1042
01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 4: may be. We want to hear from you. Thank you

1043
01:02:19,200 --> 01:02:23,800
Speaker 4: as always for tuning in and just let us know, like,

1044
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:25,760
Speaker 4: let us know what you think the future is here?

1045
01:02:26,240 --> 01:02:30,000
Speaker 4: You know if you if you have some opinions on

1046
01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:33,680
Speaker 4: the safety of aircraft, we'd love to hear that too.

1047
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:35,800
Speaker 4: We try to be easy to find online.

1048
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:36,360
Speaker 3: Correct.

1049
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:38,520
Speaker 6: You can find us at the handle conspiracy stuff, where

1050
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:42,800
Speaker 6: we exist on x nay, Twitter, x nay, on the intertway.

1051
01:02:43,960 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 6: You can also find us at that handle on Facebook

1052
01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:51,480
Speaker 6: and on YouTube. That's again conspiracy stuff. We are Conspiracy

1053
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:54,400
Speaker 6: Stuff show on Instagram and TikTok.

1054
01:02:54,520 --> 01:02:57,000
Speaker 2: Hey, do you like using your phone to make calls?

1055
01:02:57,160 --> 01:02:59,720
Speaker 2: Why not call us? Our number is one eight to

1056
01:02:59,720 --> 01:03:05,120
Speaker 2: three std WYTK. When you call in, you've got three minutes.

1057
01:03:05,200 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 2: Say whatever you'd like. Just make sure to give yourself

1058
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:09,880
Speaker 2: a cool nickname and let us know if we have

1059
01:03:09,960 --> 01:03:12,160
Speaker 2: permission to use your name and voice on the air.

1060
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:14,400
Speaker 2: If you've got more to say than can fit in

1061
01:03:14,480 --> 01:03:16,680
Speaker 2: that three minutes, why not instead send us a good

1062
01:03:16,680 --> 01:03:19,080
Speaker 2: old fashioned email. We read everything we get.

1063
01:03:19,440 --> 01:03:41,480
Speaker 5: We are conspiracy at iHeartRadio dot com.

1064
01:03:41,640 --> 01:03:43,720
Speaker 2: Stuff they don't want you to know is a production

1065
01:03:43,800 --> 01:03:48,360
Speaker 2: of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,

1066
01:03:48,440 --> 01:03:51,680
Speaker 2: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.