WEBVTT - Making It Difficult To Continue: Mike Lyons Talks To Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>Hilodimer Zolinsky defiant, telling his people Ukraine cannot be intimidated.

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<v Speaker 1>President Biden calling the attacks senseless and reaching out to

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<v Speaker 1>Zelinsky yesterday to reiterate US support for Ukraine's defense against Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>including a pledge to supply Ukraine with advanced air defense systems.

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<v Speaker 1>President Zelenski is expected to press President Biden other G

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<v Speaker 1>seven leaders for air defense systems White House, indicating that's

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<v Speaker 1>something that the President is ready to offer. Unsurprisingly, as

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<v Speaker 1>they pushed forward on the land here in the East,

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<v Speaker 1>they want to know that they can protect their civilians

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<v Speaker 1>back at home in the towns and cities across Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>have says. The missiles rained down on Ukraine for a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of days in a row. Yet more missile defense systems,

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<v Speaker 1>better missile defense systems what Zalinski's gasking for, and it

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<v Speaker 1>looks like we're going to give it to them. In

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<v Speaker 1>the G seven broke their meeting and made a broad

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<v Speaker 1>statement of support for Ukraine, pledging undeterred and steadfast quote

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<v Speaker 1>unquote financial and military help for Kiev, and reiterated that

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<v Speaker 1>there would be severe consequences if Russia were to use chemical, biological,

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<v Speaker 1>or nuclear weapons to discuss the latest. Please welcome with us.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Lions military analysts served with various military organizations both

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<v Speaker 1>the US and Europe, and was indeed, uh, the aide

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<v Speaker 1>de camp to a general officer in the NATO Command

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<v Speaker 1>back in the day. As they say, Mike, welcome, how

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<v Speaker 1>are you, hey, Guy's great to be back with you.

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<v Speaker 1>So we haven't talked to you since Ukraine blew up

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian Bridge, Russia rained down missiles on Ukraine. Where

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<v Speaker 1>are we right now? Yeah, no surprise. Russia is from

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<v Speaker 1>a from a tactical perspective, Russia continues to lose certain

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<v Speaker 1>battles in the South, but because they have tremendous capability

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<v Speaker 1>and capacity industrial capacity. Um, they've now decided for these

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<v Speaker 1>long range missile strikes. Um, you know, we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>cavil over. Whether they're outdated and precise, but they land someplace,

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<v Speaker 1>they land in Ukraine, they create damage. They are stoking

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<v Speaker 1>fear and terror inside inside that country. And that this

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<v Speaker 1>is what they're going to continue to do. And as

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<v Speaker 1>long as they have the industrial depacity to do it,

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<v Speaker 1>and and uh, they're they're not going to stop. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I think this has a lot to do with hardliners

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<v Speaker 1>in Russia are trying to get to put and saying, look,

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<v Speaker 1>you better start winning this war here, because it doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>look like that's happening. Losing the battles asn't mean you're

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<v Speaker 1>losing the war, but fundamentally it's just it's not looking good.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think he's got a mobilization issue with some

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<v Speaker 1>of the what called the silent majority, the people within

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<v Speaker 1>the eleven vast time zones of Russia, as they recognize

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<v Speaker 1>that this is not really going any place, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in the real world. To mobilize, you know, large forces

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<v Speaker 1>that would be effective, it would require six months to

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<v Speaker 1>a year, but he's not doing that. He's We're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>reports of literally soldiers showing up after being mobilized during

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<v Speaker 1>four days after they're notified. So, um, Russia is going

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<v Speaker 1>to continue to Russia as what I say, and we

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<v Speaker 1>shouldn't not be shocked that they're going to go after civilians.

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<v Speaker 1>From their perspective, it's total war and they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>continue it. And as long as the West continues to

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<v Speaker 1>at least match industrial capacity to Ukraine, the stalemate will continue. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>this strikes me, this barrage of Russian Russian missile strikes

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<v Speaker 1>me as the classic we need to do something, and

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<v Speaker 1>this is something because the history warfare is that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of bombardment doesn't terrorize people into submitting it, it hardens

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<v Speaker 1>their will. Yeah, yeah, for sure, you look at history

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<v Speaker 1>and um, they're you know dressed in all these other

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<v Speaker 1>places that do get bombed. But until they're actually able

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<v Speaker 1>to put people on the ground to take it, nothing's

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<v Speaker 1>going to change. I don't think Russia has any plans

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<v Speaker 1>on doing that anymore, but they're just going to contete,

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<v Speaker 1>continue to just make it difficult for Ukraine to exist

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<v Speaker 1>as a country. The areas that they've taken in the

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<v Speaker 1>Dome Best regions they still have now a fifth of

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<v Speaker 1>the of the land mass. Our industrial complexes and steel

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<v Speaker 1>factories and nuclear plants and chemical factories, all these things

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<v Speaker 1>are really important for Ukraine to make money now. Also

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the mental strikes are going after infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 1>so um, you know, we haven't seen this arm again yet.

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<v Speaker 1>When it comes to cyber or shutting down the electricity

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<v Speaker 1>inside of the Ukraine, I think Russia is going to

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<v Speaker 1>start to do that as Ukraine won't be able to

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<v Speaker 1>sell some of that electricity Europe, which has been doing

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<v Speaker 1>in order to supply some of the worst supplies it

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<v Speaker 1>needs in order to fight the Russian So it's all,

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<v Speaker 1>it's all very you know, a complex economic statecraft that

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<v Speaker 1>I think Russia is now going to engage in because

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<v Speaker 1>they just not win any tactical battles on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>So lots of people Leon Panetta, former Secretary Defense, David Petreus,

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<v Speaker 1>who was our whatever, he was Supreme Commander in the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East for a while. Uh, they and others saying

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<v Speaker 1>this is irreversible for putin the ground war. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's just it's never going to go the other direction.

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<v Speaker 1>You agree with that, Yeah, you know, Um, he's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>run out of time. He's not gonna be able to

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<v Speaker 1>do anything. It depends on what the rest of the

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<v Speaker 1>world does. He's he's going to do whatever he can

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<v Speaker 1>to hold those reasons he has. Crimea for example, is

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<v Speaker 1>something he has to have. The Black Sea Fleet is

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<v Speaker 1>out of that naval base there. It's the only one

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<v Speaker 1>war report. It's it's he cannot suffer that that kind

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<v Speaker 1>of loss. I think he'll do whatever he can to

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<v Speaker 1>at least, you know, hold what he has. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>he's not going to make Ukraine joined Russia. That doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>look like that's going to happen. But that's not to

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<v Speaker 1>say he still can't wage war against its neighbor by

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<v Speaker 1>launching bombs into it every once in a while. The

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<v Speaker 1>question is what what is the rest of the world

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<v Speaker 1>going to do about it? Is the rest of the

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<v Speaker 1>world actually going to isolate um, isolate Russia? Is they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to be that economic pressure for them to uh

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<v Speaker 1>to to not be able to sell their products. The

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<v Speaker 1>problem as long as the Chinese they are in the game.

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<v Speaker 1>The Chinese is there. You know, Russia has become a

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<v Speaker 1>client state of China. Now the Chinese really holds a

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<v Speaker 1>key to this. In fact, uh thing is, you don't

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<v Speaker 1>think can be a peace caper. He can, he can

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<v Speaker 1>look like he's a good guy in this if he

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<v Speaker 1>gets Russia to stop, because that's really that's all anybody

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<v Speaker 1>wants wants to have happened right now. So there's still

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<v Speaker 1>you know, assisilings the ways to go. Russ is not

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<v Speaker 1>stopping Ukraine and also wants that land back, so they're

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<v Speaker 1>not going to stop. So you have both sides in

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<v Speaker 1>this prolonged stalemate that that until one side shows lesser

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<v Speaker 1>capacity on industrial side. You're gonna see, you're gonna se

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<v Speaker 1>this going for a long time. Well in Ukraine has

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<v Speaker 1>the industrial capacity of the Western world, particularly the US.

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<v Speaker 1>Although as the G seven made brave statements about how

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<v Speaker 1>their their support is unending and undeterred blah blah blah.

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<v Speaker 1>The word is Europe is still doing a terrible job

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<v Speaker 1>of holding up the end of the bargain. Right, So,

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<v Speaker 1>and what the United States is providing his money in

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<v Speaker 1>a bank and and we're we're hyping these precision weapons

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<v Speaker 1>systems and they've made a difference, but they still Russia

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<v Speaker 1>brings untill ten x ten times the amount of tubes

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<v Speaker 1>artillery tubes to the battlefield, and they're still fighting, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>World War two. I You know that anyone who says

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<v Speaker 1>that that the technology advantage on the West is going

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<v Speaker 1>to win out is just just purely speculating that, because

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<v Speaker 1>history has shown that in warfare in particular, that NASS

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<v Speaker 1>still ends up, you know, winning the day. And if

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<v Speaker 1>Russia can get the West to get weak in the needs,

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<v Speaker 1>let's call new NATO old NATO, right, the old NATO

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<v Speaker 1>countries of Germany and France, if you know, they still

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<v Speaker 1>believe that everybody wants to go back to I think

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<v Speaker 1>we talked before. Everybody wants to go back to seb

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<v Speaker 1>every twenty three, like nothing ever happened. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>you know that that would make them happy. The people

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<v Speaker 1>in Eastern Europe are like, Nope, this is it. There's

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty bright line now that exists in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>The world's completely different and there's there's a and we're

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<v Speaker 1>not going back to that spot. We're not going back.

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<v Speaker 1>We have to rely on Russia. My clients on the line, Uh, Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>the big question, how concerned are you about the exchange

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<v Speaker 1>of nuclear weapons? So tactical nukes don't make sense for

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<v Speaker 1>Russia because they're they're used in the defense. And I

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<v Speaker 1>was an artillery officer in the eighties. We had tactical

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<v Speaker 1>nukes that were used in the We would have used

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<v Speaker 1>in the defense as the Russian Horde was supposed to

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<v Speaker 1>overtakecome our positions on the North German plain on. You know, women,

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<v Speaker 1>the Third World War was going to take place there

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<v Speaker 1>and that obviously never happened. But but to use them

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<v Speaker 1>first of ll convinced it'll fix the conventional forces in place.

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<v Speaker 1>But to use them now they're too short range. His

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<v Speaker 1>truth will be in too much of an area where

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<v Speaker 1>they could possibly affected by it. So I don't see

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<v Speaker 1>them being used there in that regard, unless he decides

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<v Speaker 1>to go after you know, the energy plants and the

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<v Speaker 1>infrastructure with it, because it'll you don't have to have

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<v Speaker 1>way about precision, you don't have to worry about those

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<v Speaker 1>kind of things that it'll render those places uninhabitable for

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<v Speaker 1>a while. I think that's where he possibly uses it,

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<v Speaker 1>And what we'll do is it will create kind of

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<v Speaker 1>like a border, more of a border between Ukraine and

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<v Speaker 1>Russia because the technics don't have that same impact. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>if he's launches something from Russia into Kiev on a

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear side, that that changes the equation, That changes everything. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I still I'm not sure specifically how we would respond

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<v Speaker 1>to that because we'd have to be concerned about escalation.

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<v Speaker 1>We really would have to recognize that Russia is an

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<v Speaker 1>existential threat to the US full stop. Whether we want

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<v Speaker 1>to say he would or wouldn't do it remains to

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<v Speaker 1>be seen. I'm not sure I would bet on our

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<v Speaker 1>missile platforms to take anything out, but the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>the kind of technology they have to do that, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that he it's possible he does that, but he

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<v Speaker 1>goes after critical infrastructure and knowing full well that that

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<v Speaker 1>that would mean regime change, that that would mean that

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<v Speaker 1>every every NATO country, every country in the world would

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<v Speaker 1>take a special loss to try to go after him

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<v Speaker 1>and take his regime down. Wow. Interesting. My clients military analysts, Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>great stuff. We appreciate it very much. Thanks. Yeah. The Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the outcomes that I don't appreciate enough probably

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<v Speaker 1>is because the whole thing and the war has been

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<v Speaker 1>going on since we weren't paying any attention to it

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<v Speaker 1>whatsoever until February. The Ukrainians had lost many thousands of

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<v Speaker 1>soldiers over that period of time while the world was

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<v Speaker 1>paying no attention. It could drag on like that. Would

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<v Speaker 1>the world go back to not paying attention to it?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know, but yeah, And that's what I've been saying.

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<v Speaker 1>Is uh making me pessimistic about an end of this

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<v Speaker 1>anytime soon, as you're pre borders is going to take

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<v Speaker 1>an enormous effort. Uh. And and you know, the Russians

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<v Speaker 1>are losing plenty of men, but they have a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of men, maybe maybe good ones, maybe trained ones, maybe not.

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<v Speaker 1>But the Ukrainians have lost a lot of guys too,

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<v Speaker 1>and they don't have nearly as big a reserve. So um,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know. I don't know how strong the will

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<v Speaker 1>is to take back every inch or if they figure

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<v Speaker 1>out Okaysen, we hated it, but we gotta live with

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<v Speaker 1>it now. What about CRIMEA? I just I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>Start strong,