WEBVTT - Taking Risks in Business, Poker, and Life (with Bill Perkins) 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:27.284 Pushkin. Hey everyone, and welcome back to Risky Business, our 0:00:27.444 --> 0:00:33.204 podcast about making better decisions. Today I am joined not 0:00:33.324 --> 0:00:36.884 by my usual co host Nate Silver, but by an 0:00:36.924 --> 0:00:41.044 incredible guest, Bill Perkins. Bill is someone who I met 0:00:41.124 --> 0:00:45.164 through the world of poker, but he is actually so 0:00:45.284 --> 0:00:48.484 much more than a poker player. He is a hedge 0:00:48.484 --> 0:00:53.564 fund manager, energy trader, of venture capitalist, an author Diewood 0:00:53.644 --> 0:00:56.284 Zero was amazing book that he wrote that came out 0:00:56.324 --> 0:01:00.044 a few years ago, and now he is also the 0:01:00.084 --> 0:01:03.564 co founder of Skyfi. He also produces movies. I mean, 0:01:03.604 --> 0:01:08.564 I think there are lots of things that lots of 0:01:08.604 --> 0:01:11.604 things that Bill had done, and I've probably forgotten a 0:01:11.644 --> 0:01:14.044 few caps that he's born over the years. But Bill, 0:01:14.084 --> 0:01:16.764 thank you so much for joining us on Risky Business. 0:01:16.764 --> 0:01:18.044 It's such a pleasure to have you here. 0:01:18.324 --> 0:01:20.724 Yeah, it's great to be here. I love talking to you. 0:01:21.724 --> 0:01:26.004 Likewise likewise, you know, it was very funny. We had 0:01:26.044 --> 0:01:29.204 already kind of thought that you'd make a really, really 0:01:29.284 --> 0:01:33.244 good guest, and then Ivan Boski died and he was 0:01:33.284 --> 0:01:36.564 obviously the man on whom the Gordon Gecko character in 0:01:36.644 --> 0:01:39.964 Wall Street was based. And you've said before that Wall 0:01:39.964 --> 0:01:42.004 Street had been kind of an early inspiration for you, 0:01:42.044 --> 0:01:43.604 and I was like, you know what, we really should 0:01:43.644 --> 0:01:47.444 get Bill on on the show. So Bill, we're going 0:01:47.524 --> 0:01:49.444 to talk a lot about risk and about how you 0:01:49.484 --> 0:01:53.924 think about risk and in general, how you've thought about it, 0:01:53.964 --> 0:01:57.084 how your thinking has evolved over your life. But let's 0:01:57.084 --> 0:01:59.844 start at the beginning. So let's go back to New 0:01:59.924 --> 0:02:04.084 Jersey for a while and talk about growing up and 0:02:05.164 --> 0:02:08.044 when you first became aware that you know, life is 0:02:08.084 --> 0:02:09.364 a series of risky decisions. 0:02:09.964 --> 0:02:13.284 Wow, that's a really good question. It's like you're kind of. 0:02:15.164 --> 0:02:18.324 At a subconscious level or intuitive level, you're aware a 0:02:18.444 --> 0:02:20.324 risk even as a kid, right, Like if you take 0:02:20.364 --> 0:02:22.444 the morality out of it, Like there's a cookie. 0:02:22.164 --> 0:02:23.684 In a jar, you're not supposed to go eat it. 0:02:25.484 --> 0:02:28.644 You take the cookie and somehow no camera know nothing, 0:02:28.684 --> 0:02:31.164 but your parents know you took the cookie. Obviously you're 0:02:31.164 --> 0:02:34.004 not smart enough to deduce like it can only be you, right, 0:02:34.084 --> 0:02:37.684 And there's chocolate smudges on your shirt, and so there's 0:02:37.724 --> 0:02:40.444 some sort of punishment associated with that, and you realize, Okay, 0:02:40.884 --> 0:02:43.604 if this is my reward, if I take this risk 0:02:43.644 --> 0:02:46.404 and get caught, there's this punishment as you're being socialized 0:02:46.404 --> 0:02:48.764 into what to do not to do right, and you know, 0:02:48.884 --> 0:02:51.924 kids try it out and test it out, and so 0:02:52.884 --> 0:02:58.284 you're making these intuitive risk reward decisions as a kid, right, 0:02:58.364 --> 0:03:01.164 and the consequences associated with that are actually training you 0:03:01.164 --> 0:03:04.564 in later life to be risk averse sometimes right, even 0:03:04.604 --> 0:03:07.324 if it was socializing you from a bad behavior to 0:03:07.364 --> 0:03:09.844 a good beaver, let's say, not bad behaver, but behavior 0:03:09.884 --> 0:03:12.844 they want you to do versus the behavior you want 0:03:12.844 --> 0:03:16.444 to do right, and you start realizing like, wow, this 0:03:16.644 --> 0:03:19.484 risk it hurts, it feels bad. 0:03:19.844 --> 0:03:21.164 I'm punished, I can't go out. 0:03:21.364 --> 0:03:26.764 I think you know, we all get traded, like trained, like, oh, 0:03:26.924 --> 0:03:28.804 fail bad, right. 0:03:28.964 --> 0:03:30.804 I think there's a lot of yeah, society. 0:03:30.884 --> 0:03:34.044 Society definitely says fail fail e cools bad, right. 0:03:33.964 --> 0:03:35.844 Not until you get sports like baseball where it's like, 0:03:35.844 --> 0:03:37.324 oh it's okay, you bat in three hundred, you're a 0:03:37.364 --> 0:03:40.404 superstar or something like that. But by and large, emotionally 0:03:40.524 --> 0:03:44.324 you're getting trained fail bad right. The shame even in 0:03:44.564 --> 0:03:47.604 you know, like do you ask this girl out she 0:03:47.644 --> 0:03:50.364 says no. You know, you get ridiculed or whatever. And 0:03:50.404 --> 0:03:54.004 there's so many situations in your life where your very 0:03:54.124 --> 0:03:57.404 results oriented, not expected value oriented, not like, if I 0:03:57.404 --> 0:03:59.364 did this one hundred times, am I better off in 0:03:59.364 --> 0:04:03.444 life taking this action even though there's this pain associated 0:04:03.484 --> 0:04:04.244 with these losses? 0:04:04.444 --> 0:04:04.684 Right? 0:04:05.444 --> 0:04:10.564 And so I was fortunate to have a dad, although 0:04:10.724 --> 0:04:17.164 a very tough and hard dad, was very very willing 0:04:17.164 --> 0:04:20.084 to take risks because of the er he grew up in, 0:04:20.324 --> 0:04:23.124 like and very much like, we're already at the bottom, right, 0:04:23.164 --> 0:04:25.684 We're already this has already thought of us. You're already 0:04:25.964 --> 0:04:30.124 you know, not expected to succeed, et cetera. You know, 0:04:30.124 --> 0:04:33.324 he grew up in an era when you know, racism 0:04:33.444 --> 0:04:35.364 was the law. It wasn't just like a thing or 0:04:35.364 --> 0:04:36.564 a feeling or these. 0:04:36.484 --> 0:04:40.004 Group of people was the law. And so he didn't 0:04:40.044 --> 0:04:40.524 give a fuck. 0:04:41.044 --> 0:04:43.404 He was one of those don't give a shit, I'm 0:04:43.404 --> 0:04:45.684 gonna do X, Y and Z people, which kind of 0:04:45.804 --> 0:04:52.484 unshackles you from this kind of emotional risk, aversion right 0:04:52.524 --> 0:04:54.684 in a lot of areas that I got from that, 0:04:55.364 --> 0:04:58.164 which then allowed when I later when my brain developed 0:04:58.164 --> 0:05:00.404 to like, go, oh, what is the expected value of 0:05:00.444 --> 0:05:02.444 this action to actually. 0:05:02.204 --> 0:05:05.644 Have my emotions align up with that? Right? 0:05:06.564 --> 0:05:09.124 So, you know, I find a lot of people they'll 0:05:09.124 --> 0:05:12.124 get the but they still can't stomach the losses right, 0:05:12.204 --> 0:05:13.724 the variance. 0:05:13.644 --> 0:05:16.604 Right, Yeah, I mean I think that from a psychology 0:05:16.644 --> 0:05:18.844 a standpoint, one of the things, and you know, my 0:05:18.884 --> 0:05:21.844 PhD was in risky decision making and one of the 0:05:21.884 --> 0:05:24.204 findings that I come back to over and over and 0:05:24.244 --> 0:05:27.404 over that I find, even me, even though I know it, 0:05:28.284 --> 0:05:32.004 the loss of version is just such an incredibly powerful thing. 0:05:32.404 --> 0:05:35.724 And this, of course is some of Danny Conneman's seminal work. 0:05:35.764 --> 0:05:39.004 You know, would you rather have a sure thing or 0:05:39.164 --> 0:05:43.124 you know, be with this loss? There's just something emotionally 0:05:43.124 --> 0:05:45.124 where even though I know what the right answer is, right, 0:05:45.444 --> 0:05:48.724 and I know and I know what I'm supposed to decide, 0:05:49.204 --> 0:05:51.444 there's a part of me that says, yeah, but you know, 0:05:51.524 --> 0:05:54.764 sometimes I just want the share thing. And if that's 0:05:54.764 --> 0:05:57.244 true even on the page, now, let's translate that to 0:05:57.324 --> 0:06:00.004 real life and to our real life decisions. And I 0:06:00.044 --> 0:06:03.804 do think that that's a really big handicap that our 0:06:03.804 --> 0:06:07.284 brains have when it comes to assessing risk and choosing 0:06:07.564 --> 0:06:10.244 things that actually matter for our life life outcomes. 0:06:10.924 --> 0:06:11.124 Yeah. 0:06:11.204 --> 0:06:13.964 I think it's also the scenario dependent. I think some 0:06:14.004 --> 0:06:16.044 of these things are rational, right, Like it depends on 0:06:16.084 --> 0:06:17.844 what loss you're trying to vert. If you're trying to 0:06:18.884 --> 0:06:21.964 not lose this image and you're like the wile risk taker, 0:06:22.044 --> 0:06:26.884 maybe you over index to taking bad risks, right, because 0:06:26.884 --> 0:06:28.724 it's just loss of version. So let's identify with the 0:06:28.764 --> 0:06:30.884 losses right first, and then it's like, wow, I don't 0:06:30.884 --> 0:06:33.684 want to lose this reputation of being this big bad ass, 0:06:33.724 --> 0:06:36.564 I don't care trader. And then you just do the 0:06:36.724 --> 0:06:40.244 riskiest thing exactly, and so now you've done the wrong 0:06:40.324 --> 0:06:42.004 thing by being too risky. 0:06:42.284 --> 0:06:44.804 Right, Yeah, I think you said several things here that 0:06:44.804 --> 0:06:47.204 I would love to dive a little deeper into because 0:06:47.204 --> 0:06:49.964 I think that they should alight on your career. But 0:06:50.004 --> 0:06:54.404 also just a light on risk in general. So people 0:06:54.564 --> 0:06:59.804 have different priorities, right when you're calculating expected value, when 0:06:59.804 --> 0:07:02.804 you're calculating risk, when you're calculating loss, you're not doing 0:07:02.804 --> 0:07:04.084 it in a vacuum. 0:07:04.124 --> 0:07:04.284 Right. 0:07:04.284 --> 0:07:07.364 My calculation is different from your calculation, especially when it 0:07:07.364 --> 0:07:10.124 comes to our lives. So when you said, sometimes it's 0:07:10.124 --> 0:07:13.364 actually quite rational to want to want to, you know, 0:07:13.644 --> 0:07:17.004 avoid a loss, and other times it's not. Are you 0:07:17.084 --> 0:07:19.484 thinking as a trader right at this point? Are you 0:07:19.564 --> 0:07:20.404 thinking as a dad? 0:07:20.724 --> 0:07:20.924 Right? 0:07:21.124 --> 0:07:24.684 Which parts of your life are you talking about and 0:07:24.764 --> 0:07:28.764 I'd actually love to hear more from you on this 0:07:28.924 --> 0:07:32.404 because you've also taken some risks in the past that 0:07:32.964 --> 0:07:35.164 you know, maybe the U of today wouldn't take. 0:07:35.764 --> 0:07:38.564 Yeah, there's definitely you know, I have a saying that 0:07:38.644 --> 0:07:41.884 humans don't net present value well and don't future value well. 0:07:41.924 --> 0:07:44.164 Like our brains aren't really wired for that. They're wired 0:07:44.164 --> 0:07:47.164 for like immediate, what's going on? Now, let me survive, 0:07:47.284 --> 0:07:48.924 let me eat, let me do what's going on? 0:07:49.324 --> 0:07:49.524 You know. 0:07:49.564 --> 0:07:52.444 The first thing about risk reward is getting the variables right. 0:07:53.524 --> 0:07:54.644 Right. If it's like this. 0:07:56.164 --> 0:07:58.124 Decision, like if I'm going to move to the city 0:07:58.164 --> 0:07:59.844 and I get a new job but it pays more, 0:07:59.884 --> 0:08:01.644 but if it doesn't work out, you know, I don't 0:08:01.644 --> 0:08:03.884 know people whatever, It's like, there's a lot of variables 0:08:03.884 --> 0:08:07.404 to figure out. Okay, am I getting how these variables 0:08:07.444 --> 0:08:10.764 switch in the you know, like zero in one case, right, 0:08:10.844 --> 0:08:13.004 And so you know, I think the first step is 0:08:13.044 --> 0:08:15.484 have a methodology to think about these things and then 0:08:15.724 --> 0:08:18.444 you know whether the variables then you know, flip it 0:08:18.444 --> 0:08:21.124 out and that takes time. You know, that's not really 0:08:22.804 --> 0:08:25.084 it doesn't match the guy's like, oh bear run, you 0:08:25.084 --> 0:08:28.364 know what I mean? Cookie eat you know that type 0:08:28.364 --> 0:08:29.084 of thing, right. 0:08:28.924 --> 0:08:31.244 Sure, I'd love to hear it kind of specifically in 0:08:31.324 --> 0:08:34.124 your case. How that's like, how did you go from 0:08:34.204 --> 0:08:37.844 cookie eat, bear run to being someone who actually thinks 0:08:37.884 --> 0:08:39.604 about this in a very logical way. 0:08:40.644 --> 0:08:43.004 In trading, we're all trying to avoid the risk of ruin. 0:08:43.724 --> 0:08:47.684 You know, Sometimes that there's decisions where I'm like, well, 0:08:47.764 --> 0:08:49.564 this is the trade and this is what we do, 0:08:49.764 --> 0:08:54.044 and we we you know, sometimes you get got is 0:08:54.124 --> 0:08:56.324 kind of like the slang use like sometimes you just 0:08:56.364 --> 0:08:58.524 get got. If you're an insurance company, the hurricane's going 0:08:58.564 --> 0:09:01.604 to come, right, But you also have to think. 0:09:01.404 --> 0:09:05.004 About the future expected value. 0:09:04.684 --> 0:09:09.084 Of just being alive in that very positive field, right 0:09:09.444 --> 0:09:11.484 as being an insurance and so the name of the 0:09:11.484 --> 0:09:14.244 game and insurance is to stay in the game. And 0:09:14.364 --> 0:09:17.964 sometimes you have to even if all the analysis says, 0:09:18.124 --> 0:09:19.444 you know, this is the right bet, this is the 0:09:19.524 --> 0:09:23.324 right trade, this is whatever, Like there's another analysis going 0:09:23.444 --> 0:09:27.444 is that the future of the future unknown expected value 0:09:27.444 --> 0:09:31.204 of being alive in this field outweighs this any individual 0:09:31.244 --> 0:09:34.524 bet or risk reward decision, right, And there's so many 0:09:34.564 --> 0:09:39.844 other variables, like well, investors are very very path dependent, right, 0:09:39.884 --> 0:09:44.844 if you lose for three years and then make for twenty, 0:09:45.004 --> 0:09:47.364 you're not going to be around even if you've only 0:09:47.364 --> 0:09:48.884 lost a little bit of money, because you're never gonna 0:09:48.884 --> 0:09:50.204 get to raise of money to get the fun and 0:09:50.244 --> 0:09:51.284 get to capital mass. 0:09:51.284 --> 0:09:52.244 But if you make, you know. 0:09:52.564 --> 0:09:55.244 But if you win for four four years and lose 0:09:55.284 --> 0:09:56.644 for five and you'll still be around. 0:09:56.684 --> 0:09:58.964 Like they're very path dependent creatures. 0:09:59.004 --> 0:10:02.284 So there's just little peculiarities of how the system works, 0:10:02.284 --> 0:10:05.204 how your brain works, how you have to look at 0:10:05.444 --> 0:10:09.884 how other people perceive risk when you're taking risk, Do you. 0:10:09.844 --> 0:10:13.084 Have the right to take the risk? You know? 0:10:13.884 --> 0:10:17.124 Things like that is where I've had to make personal 0:10:17.164 --> 0:10:21.444 decisions about the activities I do as and also like 0:10:21.484 --> 0:10:26.324 trading decisions like, hey, it may even though this seems 0:10:26.364 --> 0:10:29.884 like the right trade and the expected outcome is really high, 0:10:29.924 --> 0:10:32.644 the risk of ruin as at our percent that. 0:10:32.604 --> 0:10:34.164 We can't take and the name of the game is 0:10:34.204 --> 0:10:34.884 to stand the game. 0:10:36.204 --> 0:10:40.004 I think that's a really smart way of looking at this. 0:10:40.084 --> 0:10:42.324 And now I also understand why you've been successful as 0:10:42.324 --> 0:10:45.284 a poker player, because I think that that's something that 0:10:45.364 --> 0:10:50.564 a lot of poker players. More we can talk about that, 0:10:50.284 --> 0:10:54.804 but more successful than I think people give you credit 0:10:54.844 --> 0:10:57.844 for as a poker player. And I think that a 0:10:57.884 --> 0:11:02.284 lot of poker players understand risk reward, but actually have 0:11:02.404 --> 0:11:05.644 that piece of the puzzle missing, which is that the 0:11:05.724 --> 0:11:07.444 name of the game is to stand the game. And 0:11:07.484 --> 0:11:10.124 a lot of players go broke and they take there's 0:11:10.164 --> 0:11:12.684 this thing in the poker community that this perverse pride 0:11:12.764 --> 0:11:16.044 and oh, I've been broke x number of times. And 0:11:17.084 --> 0:11:20.604 you know, my mentor in poker, Eric Sidell, has always 0:11:20.604 --> 0:11:22.444 told me that I think that he thinks that that's 0:11:22.484 --> 0:11:24.484 not a great way of looking at it. He's never 0:11:24.524 --> 0:11:27.084 been broke, right, that that's not an image you want 0:11:27.084 --> 0:11:30.764 to cultivate. But a lot of players they, you know, 0:11:30.804 --> 0:11:33.964 they take the risks and they don't they don't realize 0:11:34.004 --> 0:11:36.724 that you do have to stay in the game. And 0:11:36.924 --> 0:11:38.844 we don't know their names, right, A lot of a 0:11:38.884 --> 0:11:41.484 lot of the players that we're very promising people don't 0:11:41.484 --> 0:11:43.844 remember who they were anymore. And now some of them 0:11:43.844 --> 0:11:45.844 were very successful and then went broke and then we're 0:11:45.884 --> 0:11:48.924 able to raise the second funds, so to speak, right 0:11:48.964 --> 0:11:53.444 in the poker world. But I think that that's especially 0:11:53.444 --> 0:11:56.444 for people who are in kind of risky professions, and 0:11:56.524 --> 0:11:59.604 who are more comfortable taking risks. I think staying in 0:11:59.644 --> 0:12:03.844 the game avoiding ruin is a really important and often 0:12:03.964 --> 0:12:06.884 missing piece of the puzzle. And it's something that you've 0:12:07.124 --> 0:12:12.044 done successfully professionally, even though you've taken some very big bets. 0:12:12.364 --> 0:12:16.084 Yeah, you know, And my natural inclination is, you know, 0:12:16.164 --> 0:12:18.924 so be it because I have a you know, it's 0:12:19.164 --> 0:12:21.844 I consider it a blessing. But like I have a 0:12:22.084 --> 0:12:24.764 lower I don't give give a fuck. I mean higher 0:12:24.804 --> 0:12:28.284 I don't give a fuck, and lower concern about what 0:12:28.324 --> 0:12:29.364 other people think. 0:12:29.444 --> 0:12:31.364 Like I'm not afraid to look like a clown. 0:12:31.404 --> 0:12:33.364 I'm not afraid to express my view that in a 0:12:33.404 --> 0:12:38.844 controversial arena, I was very very happy broke with no money, 0:12:39.484 --> 0:12:42.604 and so you know, I'm like, I don't want to 0:12:42.604 --> 0:12:44.484 go there, but I'm okay with it. And a lot 0:12:44.484 --> 0:12:48.964 of other people, you know, they avoid certain risks, whether 0:12:49.004 --> 0:12:51.644 it's taking a job or starting a business, not because 0:12:51.644 --> 0:12:53.764 they can't stomach the financial aspects of it. 0:12:53.804 --> 0:12:55.724 They can't stomach the emotional. 0:12:55.244 --> 0:12:58.084 Aspects of it, the shame, the ridicule, the feeling like 0:12:58.084 --> 0:12:59.204 a failure, et cetera. 0:12:59.844 --> 0:13:01.404 I don't care this is the right trade, Like this 0:13:01.484 --> 0:13:02.084 is what we do. 0:13:02.724 --> 0:13:04.484 You know, all boxers get punched in the face, so 0:13:04.484 --> 0:13:08.204 all boxers get knocked down, right, you know risk managements 0:13:08.244 --> 0:13:09.884 like uh, name of the games, stay in a game? 0:13:10.004 --> 0:13:11.804 How did I actually don't know this? How did you 0:13:11.844 --> 0:13:14.844 get into poker? Kind of at the level that you 0:13:15.084 --> 0:13:17.004 that you play because to me, and correct me if 0:13:17.004 --> 0:13:19.484 I'm wrong, it seems like you've increasingly actually taken the 0:13:19.484 --> 0:13:22.444 game seriously. Right, you play for fun, but you also 0:13:22.524 --> 0:13:25.644 have studied, you have coaches, You do want to prove 0:13:25.684 --> 0:13:29.444 yourself as a good player and not just oh you know, 0:13:29.524 --> 0:13:32.404 this is some hedge fun guy who's coming into play poker. 0:13:32.804 --> 0:13:35.684 So I have the curse of two gears zero and 0:13:35.724 --> 0:13:38.964 one hundred, right, like one or two and one hundred, 0:13:39.044 --> 0:13:40.844 Like I don't have this modern gear. 0:13:40.964 --> 0:13:43.324 So for a lot of the early. 0:13:43.084 --> 0:13:48.364 Part of my uh, you know, let's say public uh 0:13:48.404 --> 0:13:51.484 and even private poker thing, it's just like, let me 0:13:51.524 --> 0:13:53.364 have fun, let me, let me goof off, let me 0:13:53.524 --> 0:13:56.684 let me put people in tough spots and just go 0:13:56.924 --> 0:14:00.924 off with the game. And then you know, I got 0:14:01.004 --> 0:14:04.124 a challenged publicly to a heads up match with a handicap, 0:14:04.964 --> 0:14:08.364 and he was such a massive favorite. He was going 0:14:08.404 --> 0:14:11.004 to crush me. But it was a public thing, and 0:14:11.044 --> 0:14:13.564 I was like, oh, okay, let's let's let's see if 0:14:13.564 --> 0:14:15.884 this old dog can learn new tricks. And I put 0:14:15.924 --> 0:14:18.604 it in the work to obviously make that like him 0:14:18.604 --> 0:14:19.364 a massive. 0:14:19.084 --> 0:14:21.404 Underdog for the wager we put on. 0:14:22.924 --> 0:14:24.724 And by the way, you're talking about your heads up 0:14:24.724 --> 0:14:28.124 match with Landon, tis right. Yeah, And he ended up 0:14:28.404 --> 0:14:31.364 taking a buyout, so so you did. You did win 0:14:31.524 --> 0:14:35.564 that match in that sense because he realized that it 0:14:35.644 --> 0:14:36.884 was no longer a good bet. 0:14:38.164 --> 0:14:38.444 Yeah. 0:14:38.884 --> 0:14:41.244 The funny thing is when they structured that that all 0:14:41.284 --> 0:14:43.244 the buyout things, they were worried I would just quit. 0:14:43.164 --> 0:14:44.524 Or not complete the bet. 0:14:44.724 --> 0:14:46.564 They didn't realize like I was going in the lab 0:14:46.604 --> 0:14:48.204 and I was coming to crush, Like I'm coming to 0:14:48.244 --> 0:14:50.084 win this bet outright and take all the money. 0:14:50.444 --> 0:14:53.764 So they they, uh, and you know I was. 0:14:53.924 --> 0:14:57.004 I was two sessions a day playing at night, like 0:14:57.044 --> 0:14:58.684 you know, at least three hours a day. 0:14:58.844 --> 0:15:00.924 Of the only amazing And by the way, and you 0:15:00.964 --> 0:15:02.564 have a job as well, No. 0:15:02.564 --> 0:15:03.044 I have a job. 0:15:03.084 --> 0:15:05.524 So it was it was my my wife did not 0:15:05.684 --> 0:15:08.044 like that because I'd be up to like one am 0:15:08.644 --> 0:15:11.524 hand review, you know, playing playing playing then hand review 0:15:12.964 --> 0:15:16.004 and studying and like beating these things into my head 0:15:16.164 --> 0:15:17.044 so that I could. 0:15:17.164 --> 0:15:19.084 You know, it actually kind of took the fun out 0:15:19.124 --> 0:15:19.564 of poker. 0:15:19.804 --> 0:15:22.524 It was very robotic. You know, a lot of it 0:15:22.564 --> 0:15:25.284 was very robotic with you know, random number generator, this 0:15:25.364 --> 0:15:27.524 seren al comes up. It's like taking a test. 0:15:27.884 --> 0:15:31.284 And just for people who you know, haven't followed your 0:15:31.284 --> 0:15:35.044 your poker career, the way that I have. The hand 0:15:35.164 --> 0:15:38.084 that really stands out to me recently, which I think 0:15:38.124 --> 0:15:42.204 shows that the old bill who who has captured some 0:15:42.284 --> 0:15:44.124 of that fun at the poker table still alive and 0:15:44.164 --> 0:15:46.124 well is when you were playing, I believe it was 0:15:46.164 --> 0:15:48.124 on a stream at the lodge in a large cash 0:15:48.164 --> 0:15:50.724 game and you went all in and you were bluffing, 0:15:51.404 --> 0:15:52.804 and then you said, I have a plane to catch 0:15:52.804 --> 0:15:55.764 because you were going to your your your buddy's wedding 0:15:55.884 --> 0:15:58.044 or something, and so you just you went all in 0:15:58.244 --> 0:15:59.964 and then you got up and you said, let me 0:16:00.004 --> 0:16:01.804 know if he calls or not, and you just left. 0:16:02.244 --> 0:16:02.444 Yeah. 0:16:03.044 --> 0:16:06.124 I actually I was actually finding out whether he called 0:16:06.204 --> 0:16:08.604 or not, watching it on the delay stream while trying 0:16:08.644 --> 0:16:11.164 to get into the FBO like at the gate, like wow. 0:16:11.204 --> 0:16:13.284 And the funny thing is like that, Wow, this is intense, 0:16:13.364 --> 0:16:16.164 like this is real drama because I didn't know what happened. 0:16:17.244 --> 0:16:18.644 And it was real money. 0:16:18.684 --> 0:16:20.884 It was real No, No, it's definitely real money. 0:16:21.444 --> 0:16:25.804 I was so what happened is my friend Andrew Siegel 0:16:26.124 --> 0:16:29.484 was opening first time for Tiffany Hattish as a comedian. 0:16:29.564 --> 0:16:33.164 He's been a real estate guy his whole life. Like, yeah, 0:16:33.164 --> 0:16:34.564 it wasn't a wedding, it was it was it was 0:16:34.564 --> 0:16:36.644 a comedy. So he's like, this is his big debut. 0:16:37.204 --> 0:16:37.404 You know. 0:16:38.004 --> 0:16:39.844 He's like, I've been wanting to go on comedy for 0:16:39.884 --> 0:16:42.164 a while. So I committed to go to his show 0:16:43.084 --> 0:16:47.044 in Arizona. Okay, and we work backwards, you know. Can 0:16:47.044 --> 0:16:48.884 I go to lodges? It's fine. I can play with 0:16:48.924 --> 0:16:51.444 you guys, but I must absolutely meet my wife at 0:16:51.444 --> 0:16:54.004 this time. You can't miss He's the opener. It's not 0:16:54.044 --> 0:16:55.484 you can come late and you catch on the show. 0:16:55.644 --> 0:16:57.644 You have to catch the opener. And I show up 0:16:57.644 --> 0:16:59.444 for my friends. I believe that like half a life 0:16:59.484 --> 0:17:02.364 is showing up Like so in these big, expectedly big moments. 0:17:02.404 --> 0:17:05.724 If I make a commitment, it really takes something very 0:17:05.724 --> 0:17:07.684 serious for me not to show up to you for it. 0:17:08.444 --> 0:17:11.924 And so my priority stack showing up my friend fore 0:17:12.004 --> 0:17:14.404 beats anything. But you know, I'm like last hand guys, 0:17:14.404 --> 0:17:15.924 like I'm stuck. I'm trying to get in there and 0:17:15.964 --> 0:17:17.724 trying to get my money and I'm like last hands guys. 0:17:17.764 --> 0:17:19.644 I let the producers know because they don't let you 0:17:19.684 --> 0:17:22.844 take your phone in outside send the memo when I 0:17:22.924 --> 0:17:26.604 have to go at this time. And so that's what happened. 0:17:26.604 --> 0:17:28.324 And that was the hand and so a lot of 0:17:28.324 --> 0:17:30.124 people's like, did you plan that was angle? I was like, no, 0:17:30.204 --> 0:17:32.004 I had to go, and so I put him in 0:17:32.004 --> 0:17:33.804 the blender with this big bluff, right. 0:17:33.844 --> 0:17:36.724 I know he has, I know he has. 0:17:37.924 --> 0:17:42.244 I don't overpair, and I just I just was like, oh, 0:17:42.284 --> 0:17:43.924 he's going to take a while to think about this. 0:17:44.004 --> 0:17:45.564 I got to get out of here and I just left. 0:17:48.284 --> 0:17:50.484 It's great. It's great TV. I guess you know. I 0:17:51.204 --> 0:17:53.444 know it's great TV because I was watching sweating. I 0:17:53.524 --> 0:17:54.044 was like, wow. 0:17:54.204 --> 0:17:56.684 I just I thought I was like, oh, he's probably 0:17:56.684 --> 0:17:57.804 gonna call, and then he folded. 0:17:57.884 --> 0:18:00.204 It was it was yes, it was. 0:18:00.204 --> 0:18:03.244 A beautiful moment, and you were unstuck for the session. 0:18:06.884 --> 0:18:09.564 We'll be back in a minute. 0:18:20.444 --> 0:18:23.164 You know, I think to look at risk yourself to 0:18:23.164 --> 0:18:26.564 look at variants as well, like singular questions, do you 0:18:26.604 --> 0:18:28.164 take the guarantee or do you go? 0:18:28.684 --> 0:18:30.004 Right? How many? 0:18:30.284 --> 0:18:35.124 Like a casino wants you to play for hours? Right, 0:18:35.204 --> 0:18:37.564 They're not gonna let you put down twenty million dollars 0:18:37.644 --> 0:18:40.964 on what bet? Right like that the variance isn't there 0:18:41.324 --> 0:18:45.364 for them, is too risky for them, right. But if 0:18:45.404 --> 0:18:47.604 you say, hey, I'm going to play twenty million for 0:18:47.644 --> 0:18:49.084 one hundred thousand hands. 0:18:49.604 --> 0:18:51.444 They'll structure that for you. Right. 0:18:51.484 --> 0:18:57.164 And so the question is is in my lifetime how 0:18:57.164 --> 0:19:01.124 many of these type of bets this expected outcome am 0:19:01.164 --> 0:19:01.684 I going to see? 0:19:01.724 --> 0:19:04.484 Am I going to see one? One hundred of them? 0:19:04.644 --> 0:19:06.284 One thousand, ten thousand? 0:19:06.684 --> 0:19:09.804 I think that kind of goes into people's calculus, right, 0:19:10.844 --> 0:19:11.684 it should. 0:19:12.124 --> 0:19:12.724 It should, right? 0:19:12.804 --> 0:19:16.804 And so not just the risk like oh I'm fifty 0:19:16.884 --> 0:19:18.684 point six percent favorite. 0:19:18.404 --> 0:19:20.524 Everything, Let me just risk everything, you know what I mean? 0:19:20.604 --> 0:19:23.084 Like, but like, oh I'm fifty six point six favorite, 0:19:23.124 --> 0:19:26.404 somebody's going to do play this game where you're that favorite. 0:19:26.404 --> 0:19:29.604 They're going to do it a zillion times. And you 0:19:29.644 --> 0:19:31.924 know it's at a unit that doesn't bank ruby but 0:19:31.924 --> 0:19:32.964 it can hurt, you know, like. 0:19:33.364 --> 0:19:33.964 It can handle it. 0:19:34.084 --> 0:19:36.844 And then you get introduced concepts called the Kelly criterion, 0:19:36.924 --> 0:19:40.524