1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:27,284 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hey everyone, and welcome back to Risky Business, our 2 00:00:27,444 --> 00:00:33,204 Speaker 1: podcast about making better decisions. Today I am joined not 3 00:00:33,324 --> 00:00:36,884 Speaker 1: by my usual co host Nate Silver, but by an 4 00:00:36,924 --> 00:00:41,044 Speaker 1: incredible guest, Bill Perkins. Bill is someone who I met 5 00:00:41,124 --> 00:00:45,164 Speaker 1: through the world of poker, but he is actually so 6 00:00:45,284 --> 00:00:48,484 Speaker 1: much more than a poker player. He is a hedge 7 00:00:48,484 --> 00:00:53,564 Speaker 1: fund manager, energy trader, of venture capitalist, an author Diewood 8 00:00:53,644 --> 00:00:56,284 Speaker 1: Zero was amazing book that he wrote that came out 9 00:00:56,324 --> 00:01:00,044 Speaker 1: a few years ago, and now he is also the 10 00:01:00,084 --> 00:01:03,564 Speaker 1: co founder of Skyfi. He also produces movies. I mean, 11 00:01:03,604 --> 00:01:08,564 Speaker 1: I think there are lots of things that lots of 12 00:01:08,604 --> 00:01:11,604 Speaker 1: things that Bill had done, and I've probably forgotten a 13 00:01:11,644 --> 00:01:14,044 Speaker 1: few caps that he's born over the years. But Bill, 14 00:01:14,084 --> 00:01:16,764 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us on Risky Business. 15 00:01:16,764 --> 00:01:18,044 Speaker 1: It's such a pleasure to have you here. 16 00:01:18,324 --> 00:01:20,724 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's great to be here. I love talking to you. 17 00:01:21,724 --> 00:01:26,004 Speaker 1: Likewise likewise, you know, it was very funny. We had 18 00:01:26,044 --> 00:01:29,204 Speaker 1: already kind of thought that you'd make a really, really 19 00:01:29,284 --> 00:01:33,244 Speaker 1: good guest, and then Ivan Boski died and he was 20 00:01:33,284 --> 00:01:36,564 Speaker 1: obviously the man on whom the Gordon Gecko character in 21 00:01:36,644 --> 00:01:39,964 Speaker 1: Wall Street was based. And you've said before that Wall 22 00:01:39,964 --> 00:01:42,004 Speaker 1: Street had been kind of an early inspiration for you, 23 00:01:42,044 --> 00:01:43,604 Speaker 1: and I was like, you know what, we really should 24 00:01:43,644 --> 00:01:47,444 Speaker 1: get Bill on on the show. So Bill, we're going 25 00:01:47,524 --> 00:01:49,444 Speaker 1: to talk a lot about risk and about how you 26 00:01:49,484 --> 00:01:53,924 Speaker 1: think about risk and in general, how you've thought about it, 27 00:01:53,964 --> 00:01:57,084 Speaker 1: how your thinking has evolved over your life. But let's 28 00:01:57,084 --> 00:01:59,844 Speaker 1: start at the beginning. So let's go back to New 29 00:01:59,924 --> 00:02:04,084 Speaker 1: Jersey for a while and talk about growing up and 30 00:02:05,164 --> 00:02:08,044 Speaker 1: when you first became aware that you know, life is 31 00:02:08,084 --> 00:02:09,364 Speaker 1: a series of risky decisions. 32 00:02:09,964 --> 00:02:13,284 Speaker 2: Wow, that's a really good question. It's like you're kind of. 33 00:02:15,164 --> 00:02:18,324 Speaker 3: At a subconscious level or intuitive level, you're aware a 34 00:02:18,444 --> 00:02:20,324 Speaker 3: risk even as a kid, right, Like if you take 35 00:02:20,364 --> 00:02:22,444 Speaker 3: the morality out of it, Like there's a cookie. 36 00:02:22,164 --> 00:02:23,684 Speaker 2: In a jar, you're not supposed to go eat it. 37 00:02:25,484 --> 00:02:28,644 Speaker 3: You take the cookie and somehow no camera know nothing, 38 00:02:28,684 --> 00:02:31,164 Speaker 3: but your parents know you took the cookie. Obviously you're 39 00:02:31,164 --> 00:02:34,004 Speaker 3: not smart enough to deduce like it can only be you, right, 40 00:02:34,084 --> 00:02:37,684 Speaker 3: And there's chocolate smudges on your shirt, and so there's 41 00:02:37,724 --> 00:02:40,444 Speaker 3: some sort of punishment associated with that, and you realize, Okay, 42 00:02:40,884 --> 00:02:43,604 Speaker 3: if this is my reward, if I take this risk 43 00:02:43,644 --> 00:02:46,404 Speaker 3: and get caught, there's this punishment as you're being socialized 44 00:02:46,404 --> 00:02:48,764 Speaker 3: into what to do not to do right, and you know, 45 00:02:48,884 --> 00:02:51,924 Speaker 3: kids try it out and test it out, and so 46 00:02:52,884 --> 00:02:58,284 Speaker 3: you're making these intuitive risk reward decisions as a kid, right, 47 00:02:58,364 --> 00:03:01,164 Speaker 3: and the consequences associated with that are actually training you 48 00:03:01,164 --> 00:03:04,564 Speaker 3: in later life to be risk averse sometimes right, even 49 00:03:04,604 --> 00:03:07,324 Speaker 3: if it was socializing you from a bad behavior to 50 00:03:07,364 --> 00:03:09,844 Speaker 3: a good beaver, let's say, not bad behaver, but behavior 51 00:03:09,884 --> 00:03:12,844 Speaker 3: they want you to do versus the behavior you want 52 00:03:12,844 --> 00:03:16,444 Speaker 3: to do right, and you start realizing like, wow, this 53 00:03:16,644 --> 00:03:19,484 Speaker 3: risk it hurts, it feels bad. 54 00:03:19,844 --> 00:03:21,164 Speaker 2: I'm punished, I can't go out. 55 00:03:21,364 --> 00:03:26,764 Speaker 3: I think you know, we all get traded, like trained, like, oh, 56 00:03:26,924 --> 00:03:28,804 Speaker 3: fail bad, right. 57 00:03:28,964 --> 00:03:30,804 Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of yeah, society. 58 00:03:30,884 --> 00:03:34,044 Speaker 1: Society definitely says fail fail e cools bad, right. 59 00:03:33,964 --> 00:03:35,844 Speaker 3: Not until you get sports like baseball where it's like, 60 00:03:35,844 --> 00:03:37,324 Speaker 3: oh it's okay, you bat in three hundred, you're a 61 00:03:37,364 --> 00:03:40,404 Speaker 3: superstar or something like that. But by and large, emotionally 62 00:03:40,524 --> 00:03:44,324 Speaker 3: you're getting trained fail bad right. The shame even in 63 00:03:44,564 --> 00:03:47,604 Speaker 3: you know, like do you ask this girl out she 64 00:03:47,644 --> 00:03:50,364 Speaker 3: says no. You know, you get ridiculed or whatever. And 65 00:03:50,404 --> 00:03:54,004 Speaker 3: there's so many situations in your life where your very 66 00:03:54,124 --> 00:03:57,404 Speaker 3: results oriented, not expected value oriented, not like, if I 67 00:03:57,404 --> 00:03:59,364 Speaker 3: did this one hundred times, am I better off in 68 00:03:59,364 --> 00:04:03,444 Speaker 3: life taking this action even though there's this pain associated 69 00:04:03,484 --> 00:04:04,244 Speaker 3: with these losses? 70 00:04:04,444 --> 00:04:04,684 Speaker 2: Right? 71 00:04:05,444 --> 00:04:10,564 Speaker 3: And so I was fortunate to have a dad, although 72 00:04:10,724 --> 00:04:17,164 Speaker 3: a very tough and hard dad, was very very willing 73 00:04:17,164 --> 00:04:20,084 Speaker 3: to take risks because of the er he grew up in, 74 00:04:20,324 --> 00:04:23,124 Speaker 3: like and very much like, we're already at the bottom, right, 75 00:04:23,164 --> 00:04:25,684 Speaker 3: We're already this has already thought of us. You're already 76 00:04:25,964 --> 00:04:30,124 Speaker 3: you know, not expected to succeed, et cetera. You know, 77 00:04:30,124 --> 00:04:33,324 Speaker 3: he grew up in an era when you know, racism 78 00:04:33,444 --> 00:04:35,364 Speaker 3: was the law. It wasn't just like a thing or 79 00:04:35,364 --> 00:04:36,564 Speaker 3: a feeling or these. 80 00:04:36,484 --> 00:04:40,004 Speaker 2: Group of people was the law. And so he didn't 81 00:04:40,044 --> 00:04:40,524 Speaker 2: give a fuck. 82 00:04:41,044 --> 00:04:43,404 Speaker 3: He was one of those don't give a shit, I'm 83 00:04:43,404 --> 00:04:45,684 Speaker 3: gonna do X, Y and Z people, which kind of 84 00:04:45,804 --> 00:04:52,484 Speaker 3: unshackles you from this kind of emotional risk, aversion right 85 00:04:52,524 --> 00:04:54,684 Speaker 3: in a lot of areas that I got from that, 86 00:04:55,364 --> 00:04:58,164 Speaker 3: which then allowed when I later when my brain developed 87 00:04:58,164 --> 00:05:00,404 Speaker 3: to like, go, oh, what is the expected value of 88 00:05:00,444 --> 00:05:02,444 Speaker 3: this action to actually. 89 00:05:02,204 --> 00:05:05,644 Speaker 2: Have my emotions align up with that? Right? 90 00:05:06,564 --> 00:05:09,124 Speaker 3: So, you know, I find a lot of people they'll 91 00:05:09,124 --> 00:05:12,124 Speaker 3: get the but they still can't stomach the losses right, 92 00:05:12,204 --> 00:05:13,724 Speaker 3: the variance. 93 00:05:13,644 --> 00:05:16,604 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I mean I think that from a psychology 94 00:05:16,644 --> 00:05:18,844 Speaker 1: a standpoint, one of the things, and you know, my 95 00:05:18,884 --> 00:05:21,844 Speaker 1: PhD was in risky decision making and one of the 96 00:05:21,884 --> 00:05:24,204 Speaker 1: findings that I come back to over and over and 97 00:05:24,244 --> 00:05:27,404 Speaker 1: over that I find, even me, even though I know it, 98 00:05:28,284 --> 00:05:32,004 Speaker 1: the loss of version is just such an incredibly powerful thing. 99 00:05:32,404 --> 00:05:35,724 Speaker 1: And this, of course is some of Danny Conneman's seminal work. 100 00:05:35,764 --> 00:05:39,004 Speaker 1: You know, would you rather have a sure thing or 101 00:05:39,164 --> 00:05:43,124 Speaker 1: you know, be with this loss? There's just something emotionally 102 00:05:43,124 --> 00:05:45,124 Speaker 1: where even though I know what the right answer is, right, 103 00:05:45,444 --> 00:05:48,724 Speaker 1: and I know and I know what I'm supposed to decide, 104 00:05:49,204 --> 00:05:51,444 Speaker 1: there's a part of me that says, yeah, but you know, 105 00:05:51,524 --> 00:05:54,764 Speaker 1: sometimes I just want the share thing. And if that's 106 00:05:54,764 --> 00:05:57,244 Speaker 1: true even on the page, now, let's translate that to 107 00:05:57,324 --> 00:06:00,004 Speaker 1: real life and to our real life decisions. And I 108 00:06:00,044 --> 00:06:03,804 Speaker 1: do think that that's a really big handicap that our 109 00:06:03,804 --> 00:06:07,284 Speaker 1: brains have when it comes to assessing risk and choosing 110 00:06:07,564 --> 00:06:10,244 Speaker 1: things that actually matter for our life life outcomes. 111 00:06:10,924 --> 00:06:11,124 Speaker 2: Yeah. 112 00:06:11,204 --> 00:06:13,964 Speaker 3: I think it's also the scenario dependent. I think some 113 00:06:14,004 --> 00:06:16,044 Speaker 3: of these things are rational, right, Like it depends on 114 00:06:16,084 --> 00:06:17,844 Speaker 3: what loss you're trying to vert. If you're trying to 115 00:06:18,884 --> 00:06:21,964 Speaker 3: not lose this image and you're like the wile risk taker, 116 00:06:22,044 --> 00:06:26,884 Speaker 3: maybe you over index to taking bad risks, right, because 117 00:06:26,884 --> 00:06:28,724 Speaker 3: it's just loss of version. So let's identify with the 118 00:06:28,764 --> 00:06:30,884 Speaker 3: losses right first, and then it's like, wow, I don't 119 00:06:30,884 --> 00:06:33,684 Speaker 3: want to lose this reputation of being this big bad ass, 120 00:06:33,724 --> 00:06:36,564 Speaker 3: I don't care trader. And then you just do the 121 00:06:36,724 --> 00:06:40,244 Speaker 3: riskiest thing exactly, and so now you've done the wrong 122 00:06:40,324 --> 00:06:42,004 Speaker 3: thing by being too risky. 123 00:06:42,284 --> 00:06:44,804 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I think you said several things here that 124 00:06:44,804 --> 00:06:47,204 Speaker 1: I would love to dive a little deeper into because 125 00:06:47,204 --> 00:06:49,964 Speaker 1: I think that they should alight on your career. But 126 00:06:50,004 --> 00:06:54,404 Speaker 1: also just a light on risk in general. So people 127 00:06:54,564 --> 00:06:59,804 Speaker 1: have different priorities, right when you're calculating expected value, when 128 00:06:59,804 --> 00:07:02,804 Speaker 1: you're calculating risk, when you're calculating loss, you're not doing 129 00:07:02,804 --> 00:07:04,084 Speaker 1: it in a vacuum. 130 00:07:04,124 --> 00:07:04,284 Speaker 2: Right. 131 00:07:04,284 --> 00:07:07,364 Speaker 1: My calculation is different from your calculation, especially when it 132 00:07:07,364 --> 00:07:10,124 Speaker 1: comes to our lives. So when you said, sometimes it's 133 00:07:10,124 --> 00:07:13,364 Speaker 1: actually quite rational to want to want to, you know, 134 00:07:13,644 --> 00:07:17,004 Speaker 1: avoid a loss, and other times it's not. Are you 135 00:07:17,084 --> 00:07:19,484 Speaker 1: thinking as a trader right at this point? Are you 136 00:07:19,564 --> 00:07:20,404 Speaker 1: thinking as a dad? 137 00:07:20,724 --> 00:07:20,924 Speaker 2: Right? 138 00:07:21,124 --> 00:07:24,684 Speaker 1: Which parts of your life are you talking about and 139 00:07:24,764 --> 00:07:28,764 Speaker 1: I'd actually love to hear more from you on this 140 00:07:28,924 --> 00:07:32,404 Speaker 1: because you've also taken some risks in the past that 141 00:07:32,964 --> 00:07:35,164 Speaker 1: you know, maybe the U of today wouldn't take. 142 00:07:35,764 --> 00:07:38,564 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's definitely you know, I have a saying that 143 00:07:38,644 --> 00:07:41,884 Speaker 3: humans don't net present value well and don't future value well. 144 00:07:41,924 --> 00:07:44,164 Speaker 3: Like our brains aren't really wired for that. They're wired 145 00:07:44,164 --> 00:07:47,164 Speaker 3: for like immediate, what's going on? Now, let me survive, 146 00:07:47,284 --> 00:07:48,924 Speaker 3: let me eat, let me do what's going on? 147 00:07:49,324 --> 00:07:49,524 Speaker 2: You know. 148 00:07:49,564 --> 00:07:52,444 Speaker 3: The first thing about risk reward is getting the variables right. 149 00:07:53,524 --> 00:07:54,644 Speaker 2: Right. If it's like this. 150 00:07:56,164 --> 00:07:58,124 Speaker 3: Decision, like if I'm going to move to the city 151 00:07:58,164 --> 00:07:59,844 Speaker 3: and I get a new job but it pays more, 152 00:07:59,884 --> 00:08:01,644 Speaker 3: but if it doesn't work out, you know, I don't 153 00:08:01,644 --> 00:08:03,884 Speaker 3: know people whatever, It's like, there's a lot of variables 154 00:08:03,884 --> 00:08:07,404 Speaker 3: to figure out. Okay, am I getting how these variables 155 00:08:07,444 --> 00:08:10,764 Speaker 3: switch in the you know, like zero in one case, right, 156 00:08:10,844 --> 00:08:13,004 Speaker 3: And so you know, I think the first step is 157 00:08:13,044 --> 00:08:15,484 Speaker 3: have a methodology to think about these things and then 158 00:08:15,724 --> 00:08:18,444 Speaker 3: you know whether the variables then you know, flip it 159 00:08:18,444 --> 00:08:21,124 Speaker 3: out and that takes time. You know, that's not really 160 00:08:22,804 --> 00:08:25,084 Speaker 3: it doesn't match the guy's like, oh bear run, you 161 00:08:25,084 --> 00:08:28,364 Speaker 3: know what I mean? Cookie eat you know that type 162 00:08:28,364 --> 00:08:29,084 Speaker 3: of thing, right. 163 00:08:28,924 --> 00:08:31,244 Speaker 1: Sure, I'd love to hear it kind of specifically in 164 00:08:31,324 --> 00:08:34,124 Speaker 1: your case. How that's like, how did you go from 165 00:08:34,204 --> 00:08:37,844 Speaker 1: cookie eat, bear run to being someone who actually thinks 166 00:08:37,884 --> 00:08:39,604 Speaker 1: about this in a very logical way. 167 00:08:40,644 --> 00:08:43,004 Speaker 3: In trading, we're all trying to avoid the risk of ruin. 168 00:08:43,724 --> 00:08:47,684 Speaker 3: You know, Sometimes that there's decisions where I'm like, well, 169 00:08:47,764 --> 00:08:49,564 Speaker 3: this is the trade and this is what we do, 170 00:08:49,764 --> 00:08:54,044 Speaker 3: and we we you know, sometimes you get got is 171 00:08:54,124 --> 00:08:56,324 Speaker 3: kind of like the slang use like sometimes you just 172 00:08:56,364 --> 00:08:58,524 Speaker 3: get got. If you're an insurance company, the hurricane's going 173 00:08:58,564 --> 00:09:01,604 Speaker 3: to come, right, But you also have to think. 174 00:09:01,404 --> 00:09:05,004 Speaker 2: About the future expected value. 175 00:09:04,684 --> 00:09:09,084 Speaker 3: Of just being alive in that very positive field, right 176 00:09:09,444 --> 00:09:11,484 Speaker 3: as being an insurance and so the name of the 177 00:09:11,484 --> 00:09:14,244 Speaker 3: game and insurance is to stay in the game. And 178 00:09:14,364 --> 00:09:17,964 Speaker 3: sometimes you have to even if all the analysis says, 179 00:09:18,124 --> 00:09:19,444 Speaker 3: you know, this is the right bet, this is the 180 00:09:19,524 --> 00:09:23,324 Speaker 3: right trade, this is whatever, Like there's another analysis going 181 00:09:23,444 --> 00:09:27,444 Speaker 3: is that the future of the future unknown expected value 182 00:09:27,444 --> 00:09:31,204 Speaker 3: of being alive in this field outweighs this any individual 183 00:09:31,244 --> 00:09:34,524 Speaker 3: bet or risk reward decision, right, And there's so many 184 00:09:34,564 --> 00:09:39,844 Speaker 3: other variables, like well, investors are very very path dependent, right, 185 00:09:39,884 --> 00:09:44,844 Speaker 3: if you lose for three years and then make for twenty, 186 00:09:45,004 --> 00:09:47,364 Speaker 3: you're not going to be around even if you've only 187 00:09:47,364 --> 00:09:48,884 Speaker 3: lost a little bit of money, because you're never gonna 188 00:09:48,884 --> 00:09:50,204 Speaker 3: get to raise of money to get the fun and 189 00:09:50,244 --> 00:09:51,284 Speaker 3: get to capital mass. 190 00:09:51,284 --> 00:09:52,244 Speaker 2: But if you make, you know. 191 00:09:52,564 --> 00:09:55,244 Speaker 3: But if you win for four four years and lose 192 00:09:55,284 --> 00:09:56,644 Speaker 3: for five and you'll still be around. 193 00:09:56,684 --> 00:09:58,964 Speaker 2: Like they're very path dependent creatures. 194 00:09:59,004 --> 00:10:02,284 Speaker 3: So there's just little peculiarities of how the system works, 195 00:10:02,284 --> 00:10:05,204 Speaker 3: how your brain works, how you have to look at 196 00:10:05,444 --> 00:10:09,884 Speaker 3: how other people perceive risk when you're taking risk, Do you. 197 00:10:09,844 --> 00:10:13,084 Speaker 2: Have the right to take the risk? You know? 198 00:10:13,884 --> 00:10:17,124 Speaker 3: Things like that is where I've had to make personal 199 00:10:17,164 --> 00:10:21,444 Speaker 3: decisions about the activities I do as and also like 200 00:10:21,484 --> 00:10:26,324 Speaker 3: trading decisions like, hey, it may even though this seems 201 00:10:26,364 --> 00:10:29,884 Speaker 3: like the right trade and the expected outcome is really high, 202 00:10:29,924 --> 00:10:32,644 Speaker 3: the risk of ruin as at our percent that. 203 00:10:32,604 --> 00:10:34,164 Speaker 2: We can't take and the name of the game is 204 00:10:34,204 --> 00:10:34,884 Speaker 2: to stand the game. 205 00:10:36,204 --> 00:10:40,004 Speaker 1: I think that's a really smart way of looking at this. 206 00:10:40,084 --> 00:10:42,324 Speaker 1: And now I also understand why you've been successful as 207 00:10:42,324 --> 00:10:45,284 Speaker 1: a poker player, because I think that that's something that 208 00:10:45,364 --> 00:10:50,564 Speaker 1: a lot of poker players. More we can talk about that, 209 00:10:50,284 --> 00:10:54,804 Speaker 1: but more successful than I think people give you credit 210 00:10:54,844 --> 00:10:57,844 Speaker 1: for as a poker player. And I think that a 211 00:10:57,884 --> 00:11:02,284 Speaker 1: lot of poker players understand risk reward, but actually have 212 00:11:02,404 --> 00:11:05,644 Speaker 1: that piece of the puzzle missing, which is that the 213 00:11:05,724 --> 00:11:07,444 Speaker 1: name of the game is to stand the game. And 214 00:11:07,484 --> 00:11:10,124 Speaker 1: a lot of players go broke and they take there's 215 00:11:10,164 --> 00:11:12,684 Speaker 1: this thing in the poker community that this perverse pride 216 00:11:12,764 --> 00:11:16,044 Speaker 1: and oh, I've been broke x number of times. And 217 00:11:17,084 --> 00:11:20,604 Speaker 1: you know, my mentor in poker, Eric Sidell, has always 218 00:11:20,604 --> 00:11:22,444 Speaker 1: told me that I think that he thinks that that's 219 00:11:22,484 --> 00:11:24,484 Speaker 1: not a great way of looking at it. He's never 220 00:11:24,524 --> 00:11:27,084 Speaker 1: been broke, right, that that's not an image you want 221 00:11:27,084 --> 00:11:30,764 Speaker 1: to cultivate. But a lot of players they, you know, 222 00:11:30,804 --> 00:11:33,964 Speaker 1: they take the risks and they don't they don't realize 223 00:11:34,004 --> 00:11:36,724 Speaker 1: that you do have to stay in the game. And 224 00:11:36,924 --> 00:11:38,844 Speaker 1: we don't know their names, right, A lot of a 225 00:11:38,884 --> 00:11:41,484 Speaker 1: lot of the players that we're very promising people don't 226 00:11:41,484 --> 00:11:43,844 Speaker 1: remember who they were anymore. And now some of them 227 00:11:43,844 --> 00:11:45,844 Speaker 1: were very successful and then went broke and then we're 228 00:11:45,884 --> 00:11:48,924 Speaker 1: able to raise the second funds, so to speak, right 229 00:11:48,964 --> 00:11:53,444 Speaker 1: in the poker world. But I think that that's especially 230 00:11:53,444 --> 00:11:56,444 Speaker 1: for people who are in kind of risky professions, and 231 00:11:56,524 --> 00:11:59,604 Speaker 1: who are more comfortable taking risks. I think staying in 232 00:11:59,644 --> 00:12:03,844 Speaker 1: the game avoiding ruin is a really important and often 233 00:12:03,964 --> 00:12:06,884 Speaker 1: missing piece of the puzzle. And it's something that you've 234 00:12:07,124 --> 00:12:12,044 Speaker 1: done successfully professionally, even though you've taken some very big bets. 235 00:12:12,364 --> 00:12:16,084 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, And my natural inclination is, you know, 236 00:12:16,164 --> 00:12:18,924 Speaker 3: so be it because I have a you know, it's 237 00:12:19,164 --> 00:12:21,844 Speaker 3: I consider it a blessing. But like I have a 238 00:12:22,084 --> 00:12:24,764 Speaker 3: lower I don't give give a fuck. I mean higher 239 00:12:24,804 --> 00:12:28,284 Speaker 3: I don't give a fuck, and lower concern about what 240 00:12:28,324 --> 00:12:29,364 Speaker 3: other people think. 241 00:12:29,444 --> 00:12:31,364 Speaker 2: Like I'm not afraid to look like a clown. 242 00:12:31,404 --> 00:12:33,364 Speaker 3: I'm not afraid to express my view that in a 243 00:12:33,404 --> 00:12:38,844 Speaker 3: controversial arena, I was very very happy broke with no money, 244 00:12:39,484 --> 00:12:42,604 Speaker 3: and so you know, I'm like, I don't want to 245 00:12:42,604 --> 00:12:44,484 Speaker 3: go there, but I'm okay with it. And a lot 246 00:12:44,484 --> 00:12:48,964 Speaker 3: of other people, you know, they avoid certain risks, whether 247 00:12:49,004 --> 00:12:51,644 Speaker 3: it's taking a job or starting a business, not because 248 00:12:51,644 --> 00:12:53,764 Speaker 3: they can't stomach the financial aspects of it. 249 00:12:53,804 --> 00:12:55,724 Speaker 2: They can't stomach the emotional. 250 00:12:55,244 --> 00:12:58,084 Speaker 3: Aspects of it, the shame, the ridicule, the feeling like 251 00:12:58,084 --> 00:12:59,204 Speaker 3: a failure, et cetera. 252 00:12:59,844 --> 00:13:01,404 Speaker 2: I don't care this is the right trade, Like this 253 00:13:01,484 --> 00:13:02,084 Speaker 2: is what we do. 254 00:13:02,724 --> 00:13:04,484 Speaker 3: You know, all boxers get punched in the face, so 255 00:13:04,484 --> 00:13:08,204 Speaker 3: all boxers get knocked down, right, you know risk managements 256 00:13:08,244 --> 00:13:09,884 Speaker 3: like uh, name of the games, stay in a game? 257 00:13:10,004 --> 00:13:11,804 Speaker 1: How did I actually don't know this? How did you 258 00:13:11,844 --> 00:13:14,844 Speaker 1: get into poker? Kind of at the level that you 259 00:13:15,084 --> 00:13:17,004 Speaker 1: that you play because to me, and correct me if 260 00:13:17,004 --> 00:13:19,484 Speaker 1: I'm wrong, it seems like you've increasingly actually taken the 261 00:13:19,484 --> 00:13:22,444 Speaker 1: game seriously. Right, you play for fun, but you also 262 00:13:22,524 --> 00:13:25,644 Speaker 1: have studied, you have coaches, You do want to prove 263 00:13:25,684 --> 00:13:29,444 Speaker 1: yourself as a good player and not just oh you know, 264 00:13:29,524 --> 00:13:32,404 Speaker 1: this is some hedge fun guy who's coming into play poker. 265 00:13:32,804 --> 00:13:35,684 Speaker 3: So I have the curse of two gears zero and 266 00:13:35,724 --> 00:13:38,964 Speaker 3: one hundred, right, like one or two and one hundred, 267 00:13:39,044 --> 00:13:40,844 Speaker 3: Like I don't have this modern gear. 268 00:13:40,964 --> 00:13:43,324 Speaker 2: So for a lot of the early. 269 00:13:43,084 --> 00:13:48,364 Speaker 3: Part of my uh, you know, let's say public uh 270 00:13:48,404 --> 00:13:51,484 Speaker 3: and even private poker thing, it's just like, let me 271 00:13:51,524 --> 00:13:53,364 Speaker 3: have fun, let me, let me goof off, let me 272 00:13:53,524 --> 00:13:56,684 Speaker 3: let me put people in tough spots and just go 273 00:13:56,924 --> 00:14:00,924 Speaker 3: off with the game. And then you know, I got 274 00:14:01,004 --> 00:14:04,124 Speaker 3: a challenged publicly to a heads up match with a handicap, 275 00:14:04,964 --> 00:14:08,364 Speaker 3: and he was such a massive favorite. He was going 276 00:14:08,404 --> 00:14:11,004 Speaker 3: to crush me. But it was a public thing, and 277 00:14:11,044 --> 00:14:13,564 Speaker 3: I was like, oh, okay, let's let's let's see if 278 00:14:13,564 --> 00:14:15,884 Speaker 3: this old dog can learn new tricks. And I put 279 00:14:15,924 --> 00:14:18,604 Speaker 3: it in the work to obviously make that like him 280 00:14:18,604 --> 00:14:19,364 Speaker 3: a massive. 281 00:14:19,084 --> 00:14:21,404 Speaker 2: Underdog for the wager we put on. 282 00:14:22,924 --> 00:14:24,724 Speaker 1: And by the way, you're talking about your heads up 283 00:14:24,724 --> 00:14:28,124 Speaker 1: match with Landon, tis right. Yeah, And he ended up 284 00:14:28,404 --> 00:14:31,364 Speaker 1: taking a buyout, so so you did. You did win 285 00:14:31,524 --> 00:14:35,564 Speaker 1: that match in that sense because he realized that it 286 00:14:35,644 --> 00:14:36,884 Speaker 1: was no longer a good bet. 287 00:14:38,164 --> 00:14:38,444 Speaker 2: Yeah. 288 00:14:38,884 --> 00:14:41,244 Speaker 3: The funny thing is when they structured that that all 289 00:14:41,284 --> 00:14:43,244 Speaker 3: the buyout things, they were worried I would just quit. 290 00:14:43,164 --> 00:14:44,524 Speaker 2: Or not complete the bet. 291 00:14:44,724 --> 00:14:46,564 Speaker 3: They didn't realize like I was going in the lab 292 00:14:46,604 --> 00:14:48,204 Speaker 3: and I was coming to crush, Like I'm coming to 293 00:14:48,244 --> 00:14:50,084 Speaker 3: win this bet outright and take all the money. 294 00:14:50,444 --> 00:14:53,764 Speaker 2: So they they, uh, and you know I was. 295 00:14:53,924 --> 00:14:57,004 Speaker 3: I was two sessions a day playing at night, like 296 00:14:57,044 --> 00:14:58,684 Speaker 3: you know, at least three hours a day. 297 00:14:58,844 --> 00:15:00,924 Speaker 1: Of the only amazing And by the way, and you 298 00:15:00,964 --> 00:15:02,564 Speaker 1: have a job as well, No. 299 00:15:02,564 --> 00:15:03,044 Speaker 2: I have a job. 300 00:15:03,084 --> 00:15:05,524 Speaker 3: So it was it was my my wife did not 301 00:15:05,684 --> 00:15:08,044 Speaker 3: like that because I'd be up to like one am 302 00:15:08,644 --> 00:15:11,524 Speaker 3: hand review, you know, playing playing playing then hand review 303 00:15:12,964 --> 00:15:16,004 Speaker 3: and studying and like beating these things into my head 304 00:15:16,164 --> 00:15:17,044 Speaker 3: so that I could. 305 00:15:17,164 --> 00:15:19,084 Speaker 2: You know, it actually kind of took the fun out 306 00:15:19,124 --> 00:15:19,564 Speaker 2: of poker. 307 00:15:19,804 --> 00:15:22,524 Speaker 3: It was very robotic. You know, a lot of it 308 00:15:22,564 --> 00:15:25,284 Speaker 3: was very robotic with you know, random number generator, this 309 00:15:25,364 --> 00:15:27,524 Speaker 3: seren al comes up. It's like taking a test. 310 00:15:27,884 --> 00:15:31,284 Speaker 1: And just for people who you know, haven't followed your 311 00:15:31,284 --> 00:15:35,044 Speaker 1: your poker career, the way that I have. The hand 312 00:15:35,164 --> 00:15:38,084 Speaker 1: that really stands out to me recently, which I think 313 00:15:38,124 --> 00:15:42,204 Speaker 1: shows that the old bill who who has captured some 314 00:15:42,284 --> 00:15:44,124 Speaker 1: of that fun at the poker table still alive and 315 00:15:44,164 --> 00:15:46,124 Speaker 1: well is when you were playing, I believe it was 316 00:15:46,164 --> 00:15:48,124 Speaker 1: on a stream at the lodge in a large cash 317 00:15:48,164 --> 00:15:50,724 Speaker 1: game and you went all in and you were bluffing, 318 00:15:51,404 --> 00:15:52,804 Speaker 1: and then you said, I have a plane to catch 319 00:15:52,804 --> 00:15:55,764 Speaker 1: because you were going to your your your buddy's wedding 320 00:15:55,884 --> 00:15:58,044 Speaker 1: or something, and so you just you went all in 321 00:15:58,244 --> 00:15:59,964 Speaker 1: and then you got up and you said, let me 322 00:16:00,004 --> 00:16:01,804 Speaker 1: know if he calls or not, and you just left. 323 00:16:02,244 --> 00:16:02,444 Speaker 4: Yeah. 324 00:16:03,044 --> 00:16:06,124 Speaker 3: I actually I was actually finding out whether he called 325 00:16:06,204 --> 00:16:08,604 Speaker 3: or not, watching it on the delay stream while trying 326 00:16:08,644 --> 00:16:11,164 Speaker 3: to get into the FBO like at the gate, like wow. 327 00:16:11,204 --> 00:16:13,284 Speaker 3: And the funny thing is like that, Wow, this is intense, 328 00:16:13,364 --> 00:16:16,164 Speaker 3: like this is real drama because I didn't know what happened. 329 00:16:17,244 --> 00:16:18,644 Speaker 1: And it was real money. 330 00:16:18,684 --> 00:16:20,884 Speaker 2: It was real No, No, it's definitely real money. 331 00:16:21,444 --> 00:16:25,804 Speaker 3: I was so what happened is my friend Andrew Siegel 332 00:16:26,124 --> 00:16:29,484 Speaker 3: was opening first time for Tiffany Hattish as a comedian. 333 00:16:29,564 --> 00:16:33,164 Speaker 3: He's been a real estate guy his whole life. Like, yeah, 334 00:16:33,164 --> 00:16:34,564 Speaker 3: it wasn't a wedding, it was it was it was 335 00:16:34,564 --> 00:16:36,644 Speaker 3: a comedy. So he's like, this is his big debut. 336 00:16:37,204 --> 00:16:37,404 Speaker 2: You know. 337 00:16:38,004 --> 00:16:39,844 Speaker 3: He's like, I've been wanting to go on comedy for 338 00:16:39,884 --> 00:16:42,164 Speaker 3: a while. So I committed to go to his show 339 00:16:43,084 --> 00:16:47,044 Speaker 3: in Arizona. Okay, and we work backwards, you know. Can 340 00:16:47,044 --> 00:16:48,884 Speaker 3: I go to lodges? It's fine. I can play with 341 00:16:48,924 --> 00:16:51,444 Speaker 3: you guys, but I must absolutely meet my wife at 342 00:16:51,444 --> 00:16:54,004 Speaker 3: this time. You can't miss He's the opener. It's not 343 00:16:54,044 --> 00:16:55,484 Speaker 3: you can come late and you catch on the show. 344 00:16:55,644 --> 00:16:57,644 Speaker 3: You have to catch the opener. And I show up 345 00:16:57,644 --> 00:16:59,444 Speaker 3: for my friends. I believe that like half a life 346 00:16:59,484 --> 00:17:02,364 Speaker 3: is showing up Like so in these big, expectedly big moments. 347 00:17:02,404 --> 00:17:05,724 Speaker 3: If I make a commitment, it really takes something very 348 00:17:05,724 --> 00:17:07,684 Speaker 3: serious for me not to show up to you for it. 349 00:17:08,444 --> 00:17:11,924 Speaker 3: And so my priority stack showing up my friend fore 350 00:17:12,004 --> 00:17:14,404 Speaker 3: beats anything. But you know, I'm like last hand guys, 351 00:17:14,404 --> 00:17:15,924 Speaker 3: like I'm stuck. I'm trying to get in there and 352 00:17:15,964 --> 00:17:17,724 Speaker 3: trying to get my money and I'm like last hands guys. 353 00:17:17,764 --> 00:17:19,644 Speaker 3: I let the producers know because they don't let you 354 00:17:19,684 --> 00:17:22,844 Speaker 3: take your phone in outside send the memo when I 355 00:17:22,924 --> 00:17:26,604 Speaker 3: have to go at this time. And so that's what happened. 356 00:17:26,604 --> 00:17:28,324 Speaker 3: And that was the hand and so a lot of 357 00:17:28,324 --> 00:17:30,124 Speaker 3: people's like, did you plan that was angle? I was like, no, 358 00:17:30,204 --> 00:17:32,004 Speaker 3: I had to go, and so I put him in 359 00:17:32,004 --> 00:17:33,804 Speaker 3: the blender with this big bluff, right. 360 00:17:33,844 --> 00:17:36,724 Speaker 2: I know he has, I know he has. 361 00:17:37,924 --> 00:17:42,244 Speaker 3: I don't overpair, and I just I just was like, oh, 362 00:17:42,284 --> 00:17:43,924 Speaker 3: he's going to take a while to think about this. 363 00:17:44,004 --> 00:17:45,564 Speaker 2: I got to get out of here and I just left. 364 00:17:48,284 --> 00:17:50,484 Speaker 2: It's great. It's great TV. I guess you know. I 365 00:17:51,204 --> 00:17:53,444 Speaker 2: know it's great TV because I was watching sweating. I 366 00:17:53,524 --> 00:17:54,044 Speaker 2: was like, wow. 367 00:17:54,204 --> 00:17:56,684 Speaker 3: I just I thought I was like, oh, he's probably 368 00:17:56,684 --> 00:17:57,804 Speaker 3: gonna call, and then he folded. 369 00:17:57,884 --> 00:18:00,204 Speaker 2: It was it was yes, it was. 370 00:18:00,204 --> 00:18:03,244 Speaker 1: A beautiful moment, and you were unstuck for the session. 371 00:18:06,884 --> 00:18:09,564 Speaker 1: We'll be back in a minute. 372 00:18:20,444 --> 00:18:23,164 Speaker 3: You know, I think to look at risk yourself to 373 00:18:23,164 --> 00:18:26,564 Speaker 3: look at variants as well, like singular questions, do you 374 00:18:26,604 --> 00:18:28,164 Speaker 3: take the guarantee or do you go? 375 00:18:28,684 --> 00:18:30,004 Speaker 2: Right? How many? 376 00:18:30,284 --> 00:18:35,124 Speaker 3: Like a casino wants you to play for hours? Right, 377 00:18:35,204 --> 00:18:37,564 Speaker 3: They're not gonna let you put down twenty million dollars 378 00:18:37,644 --> 00:18:40,964 Speaker 3: on what bet? Right like that the variance isn't there 379 00:18:41,324 --> 00:18:45,364 Speaker 3: for them, is too risky for them, right. But if 380 00:18:45,404 --> 00:18:47,604 Speaker 3: you say, hey, I'm going to play twenty million for 381 00:18:47,644 --> 00:18:49,084 Speaker 3: one hundred thousand hands. 382 00:18:49,604 --> 00:18:51,444 Speaker 2: They'll structure that for you. Right. 383 00:18:51,484 --> 00:18:57,164 Speaker 3: And so the question is is in my lifetime how 384 00:18:57,164 --> 00:19:01,124 Speaker 3: many of these type of bets this expected outcome am 385 00:19:01,164 --> 00:19:01,684 Speaker 3: I going to see? 386 00:19:01,724 --> 00:19:04,484 Speaker 2: Am I going to see one? One hundred of them? 387 00:19:04,644 --> 00:19:06,284 Speaker 2: One thousand, ten thousand? 388 00:19:06,684 --> 00:19:09,804 Speaker 3: I think that kind of goes into people's calculus, right, 389 00:19:10,844 --> 00:19:11,684 Speaker 3: it should. 390 00:19:12,124 --> 00:19:12,724 Speaker 2: It should, right? 391 00:19:12,804 --> 00:19:16,804 Speaker 3: And so not just the risk like oh I'm fifty 392 00:19:16,884 --> 00:19:18,684 Speaker 3: point six percent favorite. 393 00:19:18,404 --> 00:19:20,524 Speaker 2: Everything, Let me just risk everything, you know what I mean? 394 00:19:20,604 --> 00:19:23,084 Speaker 3: Like, but like, oh I'm fifty six point six favorite, 395 00:19:23,124 --> 00:19:26,404 Speaker 3: somebody's going to do play this game where you're that favorite. 396 00:19:26,404 --> 00:19:29,604 Speaker 3: They're going to do it a zillion times. And you 397 00:19:29,644 --> 00:19:31,924 Speaker 3: know it's at a unit that doesn't bank ruby but 398 00:19:31,924 --> 00:19:32,964 Speaker 3: it can hurt, you know, like. 399 00:19:33,364 --> 00:19:33,964 Speaker 2: It can handle it. 400 00:19:34,084 --> 00:19:36,844 Speaker 3: And then you get introduced concepts called the Kelly criterion, 401 00:19:36,924 --> 00:19:40,524 Speaker 3: like how much do you wager of your stack of 402 00:19:40,564 --> 00:19:43,524 Speaker 3: your life given your. 403 00:19:44,684 --> 00:19:46,124 Speaker 2: Given the odds, right? 404 00:19:46,204 --> 00:19:49,844 Speaker 3: And the short simple answer is the percentage of your 405 00:19:49,844 --> 00:19:53,324 Speaker 3: bankroll your risk is is the percentage of your edge. 406 00:19:53,324 --> 00:19:55,844 Speaker 3: So it's it's fifty one forty nine. You're risking two 407 00:19:55,844 --> 00:19:58,084 Speaker 3: percent of your bankroll per per incident. 408 00:19:58,204 --> 00:19:58,444 Speaker 2: Right. 409 00:19:58,684 --> 00:20:01,804 Speaker 3: So I think these questions where they say, you know, 410 00:20:02,404 --> 00:20:05,484 Speaker 3: ten million or four million, it's like, my bankroll is 411 00:20:05,724 --> 00:20:07,324 Speaker 3: five grand guy, you know what I mean? 412 00:20:07,404 --> 00:20:10,244 Speaker 2: Like you know, like they're like, I'll take the garantee. Right. 413 00:20:10,844 --> 00:20:13,284 Speaker 3: If you say, yeah, you get to run this scenario 414 00:20:13,804 --> 00:20:17,484 Speaker 3: a thousand times and then we'll add that up. Then 415 00:20:17,524 --> 00:20:20,844 Speaker 3: I think people make a better decision. They'll do the 416 00:20:20,844 --> 00:20:22,564 Speaker 3: math decision, right. 417 00:20:23,804 --> 00:20:26,684 Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that that's a really important point that 418 00:20:26,804 --> 00:20:31,324 Speaker 1: in life we often don't get enough chances for the 419 00:20:31,404 --> 00:20:34,164 Speaker 1: variance to even out because as you know, you know, 420 00:20:34,244 --> 00:20:38,404 Speaker 1: the only the only way to fight variance is through volume, right, So. 421 00:20:39,764 --> 00:20:42,804 Speaker 3: Yeah, you need a lot of large numbers. And you 422 00:20:42,804 --> 00:20:45,964 Speaker 3: give these single incident questions to people and they're like, 423 00:20:46,724 --> 00:20:49,044 Speaker 3: how do I apply the Crawley criterion when the mount 424 00:20:49,084 --> 00:20:52,724 Speaker 3: we're wagering here is you know, one thousand x my 425 00:20:52,764 --> 00:20:53,244 Speaker 3: bank wroth. 426 00:20:54,084 --> 00:20:57,524 Speaker 1: But so in your professional career, though you've sometimes made 427 00:20:57,684 --> 00:21:01,684 Speaker 1: very big taken very big risks on situations, and you're 428 00:21:01,884 --> 00:21:05,564 Speaker 1: you're someone who trades on information right, and trades on 429 00:21:05,724 --> 00:21:09,884 Speaker 1: events that happen that you see and you believe you 430 00:21:09,884 --> 00:21:12,644 Speaker 1: have more information, you understand them better than other people, 431 00:21:13,044 --> 00:21:15,884 Speaker 1: and so this is not a situation that's ever going 432 00:21:15,924 --> 00:21:19,684 Speaker 1: to repeat, right, Like so for instance, when you in 433 00:21:19,724 --> 00:21:22,364 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, right with Goldman's acts, like that 434 00:21:22,564 --> 00:21:25,004 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight isn't going to happen again, Or 435 00:21:25,124 --> 00:21:28,844 Speaker 1: when Russia invaded Ukraine. And I talked about this briefly 436 00:21:29,164 --> 00:21:30,924 Speaker 1: in the past, but I think that that's a really 437 00:21:31,204 --> 00:21:34,724 Speaker 1: kind of important recent news event for you where you 438 00:21:34,804 --> 00:21:36,604 Speaker 1: were able to make a lot of money based on 439 00:21:36,804 --> 00:21:40,244 Speaker 1: seeing this reacting kind of taking the information the beginning 440 00:21:40,284 --> 00:21:43,084 Speaker 1: of the COVID pandemic, Like, there are these inflection points 441 00:21:43,444 --> 00:21:46,404 Speaker 1: where something is happening and someone like you, whose job 442 00:21:46,444 --> 00:21:49,924 Speaker 1: is to actually be paying attention to these to these events, 443 00:21:49,924 --> 00:21:53,164 Speaker 1: to macro trends, can make a decision even though you 444 00:21:53,324 --> 00:21:56,444 Speaker 1: know that decision is never going to be repeated, Do 445 00:21:56,484 --> 00:21:58,764 Speaker 1: you risk more of your Bankrell? Do you think about 446 00:21:58,764 --> 00:22:00,244 Speaker 1: those situations differently? 447 00:22:00,404 --> 00:22:01,924 Speaker 3: Well, the way I think about it this way is 448 00:22:02,084 --> 00:22:05,524 Speaker 3: there's the narrative behind it, the story and then the setup. 449 00:22:06,044 --> 00:22:06,404 Speaker 2: And so. 450 00:22:07,964 --> 00:22:10,484 Speaker 3: In my profession, you know, it could be two thousand 451 00:22:10,484 --> 00:22:15,324 Speaker 3: and eight crisis, hurricane, a freeze, et cetera. Where you 452 00:22:15,444 --> 00:22:18,244 Speaker 3: have this certain expected outcome. You know, this is the 453 00:22:18,284 --> 00:22:21,284 Speaker 3: probability event happened, and this is the expected outcome. So 454 00:22:21,524 --> 00:22:23,524 Speaker 3: the narrative may change, but I'm going to get a 455 00:22:23,524 --> 00:22:25,964 Speaker 3: lot of those different things. I'm not going to see 456 00:22:26,004 --> 00:22:27,244 Speaker 3: a two thousand and eight, but I'm going to see 457 00:22:27,244 --> 00:22:29,404 Speaker 3: a two thousand and eight risk reward scenario and ev 458 00:22:29,524 --> 00:22:31,844 Speaker 3: set up again, right, so. 459 00:22:31,724 --> 00:22:33,364 Speaker 2: I will I will get that. 460 00:22:33,724 --> 00:22:35,724 Speaker 3: And you know that one you're gonna get the law 461 00:22:35,804 --> 00:22:38,644 Speaker 3: of large numbers that way, right, You're not gonna get 462 00:22:39,044 --> 00:22:41,244 Speaker 3: not getting the law of large numbers in that narrative, 463 00:22:41,404 --> 00:22:43,324 Speaker 3: but you're gonna get love of large numbers. 464 00:22:43,364 --> 00:22:46,964 Speaker 2: And that's set up for a lot of traders. It 465 00:22:47,044 --> 00:22:50,924 Speaker 2: still hurts, you know, emotionally like that. And that's the 466 00:22:50,964 --> 00:22:51,844 Speaker 2: thing with a you know. 467 00:22:51,924 --> 00:22:56,084 Speaker 3: Risk there's a lot of people who are bright, very 468 00:22:56,084 --> 00:22:59,484 Speaker 3: smart professors, people brightther than me. That can't be traders 469 00:22:59,564 --> 00:23:03,804 Speaker 3: because the emotional UH risk ward does not line up 470 00:23:03,924 --> 00:23:09,404 Speaker 3: with the actual UH frequency of you know, good days 471 00:23:09,644 --> 00:23:12,884 Speaker 3: or qui bets. So like, if I think you've heard 472 00:23:13,124 --> 00:23:15,164 Speaker 3: me say this before, Like they've done studies where the 473 00:23:15,204 --> 00:23:18,364 Speaker 3: average person needs five good events, five to seven good 474 00:23:18,364 --> 00:23:19,724 Speaker 3: events to make up. 475 00:23:19,604 --> 00:23:20,524 Speaker 2: For one bad event. 476 00:23:21,524 --> 00:23:24,444 Speaker 3: Right, So you know people talk about in relationships, like 477 00:23:24,484 --> 00:23:25,804 Speaker 3: if you have a fight and you're in the wrong 478 00:23:25,844 --> 00:23:27,324 Speaker 3: with your woman, you can't. 479 00:23:27,084 --> 00:23:28,324 Speaker 2: Just give roses. 480 00:23:28,484 --> 00:23:30,484 Speaker 3: You have to give a roses for five days or 481 00:23:30,524 --> 00:23:32,044 Speaker 3: five different treats or something like that. 482 00:23:32,404 --> 00:23:35,164 Speaker 2: Right, if somebody lost, you know, had. 483 00:23:35,004 --> 00:23:37,964 Speaker 3: A bad day or whatever, they need five good days 484 00:23:38,084 --> 00:23:42,604 Speaker 3: to like equate to the one the one bad days. Trading, 485 00:23:42,764 --> 00:23:47,244 Speaker 3: that's impossible, right, nobody is above sixty percent in trading. 486 00:23:47,564 --> 00:23:52,084 Speaker 3: When people have that you know, emotional ratio of needing 487 00:23:52,164 --> 00:23:56,124 Speaker 3: five or seven good events to every bad event, it 488 00:23:56,244 --> 00:23:59,124 Speaker 3: just won't work out in tradings. And so that will 489 00:23:59,204 --> 00:24:03,084 Speaker 3: weigh on their cognitive abilities to make rational decisions in 490 00:24:03,124 --> 00:24:05,164 Speaker 3: the future and just drive them crazy. 491 00:24:05,204 --> 00:24:06,364 Speaker 2: It just won't be worth it for them. 492 00:24:06,364 --> 00:24:09,404 Speaker 3: They're miserable, they're angry, it's affecting their family life. 493 00:24:09,524 --> 00:24:09,924 Speaker 2: Et cetera. 494 00:24:09,924 --> 00:24:12,484 Speaker 3: And they're in trading not because they want to punch 495 00:24:12,524 --> 00:24:14,564 Speaker 3: buttons in computer They're there to get money to have 496 00:24:14,604 --> 00:24:16,564 Speaker 3: a good life, and if it's destroying their life, they 497 00:24:16,604 --> 00:24:17,724 Speaker 3: need to they didn't move on. 498 00:24:19,124 --> 00:24:23,124 Speaker 1: Have you become better at managing that emotional side? Or 499 00:24:23,164 --> 00:24:25,324 Speaker 1: is that something that you've always been pretty good at? 500 00:24:25,524 --> 00:24:27,044 Speaker 1: So is that something that you feels like a part 501 00:24:27,084 --> 00:24:28,844 Speaker 1: of your personality or is it or is it a 502 00:24:28,884 --> 00:24:30,044 Speaker 1: skill that you've had to develop. 503 00:24:30,484 --> 00:24:33,524 Speaker 3: I think going back to my father and you know, 504 00:24:33,644 --> 00:24:37,564 Speaker 3: not necessarily worrying about what people think or whether people like, oh, 505 00:24:37,644 --> 00:24:38,644 Speaker 3: you're a loser, you're failure. 506 00:24:38,724 --> 00:24:40,964 Speaker 2: That really helps me because. 507 00:24:41,044 --> 00:24:45,044 Speaker 3: I think people can handle the monetary risk. I think 508 00:24:45,044 --> 00:24:49,644 Speaker 3: it's the emotional risk. And in that emotional risk, it's 509 00:24:49,684 --> 00:24:51,644 Speaker 3: not like, oh I lost a bunch of money. I'm 510 00:24:51,644 --> 00:24:53,324 Speaker 3: an Idiot's like, oh, these guys are going to talk 511 00:24:53,324 --> 00:24:55,684 Speaker 3: about me. They're joking about me. You know, market's cruel. 512 00:24:55,724 --> 00:24:58,164 Speaker 3: People like to talk smack. There's always haters, and if 513 00:24:58,204 --> 00:25:01,044 Speaker 3: you don't give a shit, that kind of disappears, right like, 514 00:25:01,484 --> 00:25:03,604 Speaker 3: it kind of disappears. And I've always been kind of 515 00:25:04,724 --> 00:25:07,284 Speaker 3: you know, fuck it, we're all going to die type 516 00:25:07,284 --> 00:25:10,604 Speaker 3: of guy, like you want to have an adventurous life, 517 00:25:10,604 --> 00:25:12,124 Speaker 3: you want to have a great life, you should be 518 00:25:12,364 --> 00:25:15,644 Speaker 3: doing these things. And so that has helped me if 519 00:25:15,644 --> 00:25:18,444 Speaker 3: I've always had that and I've honed it by like 520 00:25:19,444 --> 00:25:22,964 Speaker 3: reading the stoics and getting other people's take on that 521 00:25:23,004 --> 00:25:26,684 Speaker 3: attitude to actually be even better. Right, we can always 522 00:25:26,684 --> 00:25:29,044 Speaker 3: be a little bit better, And I think the more 523 00:25:29,124 --> 00:25:31,764 Speaker 3: I'm like that, the better trader I will be. 524 00:25:33,524 --> 00:25:38,524 Speaker 1: Yeah, No, that makes a lot of sense. And it 525 00:25:38,564 --> 00:25:42,444 Speaker 1: also makes sense to me that you would take these 526 00:25:42,564 --> 00:25:45,764 Speaker 1: risks in an area where you have an edge. This 527 00:25:45,804 --> 00:25:48,164 Speaker 1: is information that you know how to act on better 528 00:25:48,204 --> 00:25:52,284 Speaker 1: than almost anyone else. But you wouldn't necessarily take a 529 00:25:52,364 --> 00:25:55,644 Speaker 1: risk that was as big and something else. And this 530 00:25:56,364 --> 00:25:59,044 Speaker 1: is not This is a way of managing I think 531 00:25:59,044 --> 00:26:01,404 Speaker 1: the emotional element. But it's a little bit different. 532 00:26:01,484 --> 00:26:05,404 Speaker 3: Yeah, So the going back to like, you know, risk 533 00:26:05,444 --> 00:26:07,724 Speaker 3: reward and how I think about risk, right, because you 534 00:26:07,804 --> 00:26:10,364 Speaker 3: have to know what's your risk and what's the reward, right, 535 00:26:10,404 --> 00:26:13,564 Speaker 3: And so a lot of times we make decisions and 536 00:26:13,604 --> 00:26:15,884 Speaker 3: trying to quilibrate that it costs all decisions. I use 537 00:26:15,924 --> 00:26:19,204 Speaker 3: a motorcycle. Actually, my friend Andrew was the first one 538 00:26:19,404 --> 00:26:21,924 Speaker 3: who used the motorcycles. Like, I like writing motorcycle. It's 539 00:26:21,924 --> 00:26:25,404 Speaker 3: really nice. You see all around you. You feel empowered 540 00:26:25,484 --> 00:26:25,884 Speaker 3: or whatever. 541 00:26:25,964 --> 00:26:30,404 Speaker 2: But I think the odds are like one in ten thousand. 542 00:26:29,964 --> 00:26:32,244 Speaker 3: You die if you ride a motorcycle for a year. Right, 543 00:26:32,604 --> 00:26:35,764 Speaker 3: That is kind of my benchmark right on. You know, 544 00:26:36,924 --> 00:26:40,844 Speaker 3: I do get this reward, it would be enjoyable, but 545 00:26:40,884 --> 00:26:43,484 Speaker 3: it's not worth the risk. So I apply that to everything. 546 00:26:43,804 --> 00:26:48,404 Speaker 3: So I need to either have a motorcycle type reward 547 00:26:48,484 --> 00:26:51,684 Speaker 3: with less risk right to order to do an activity right, 548 00:26:51,764 --> 00:26:55,044 Speaker 3: or a much greater reward right. And so one of 549 00:26:55,044 --> 00:26:55,804 Speaker 3: those was skydiving. 550 00:26:55,884 --> 00:26:56,084 Speaker 2: Right. 551 00:26:56,244 --> 00:27:00,084 Speaker 3: First time I went skydiving, amazing, adrenaline rush pumped for 552 00:27:00,164 --> 00:27:03,604 Speaker 3: a week. Second time it was great, wasn't amazing? And 553 00:27:03,644 --> 00:27:05,564 Speaker 3: somebody said, you want to go skydiving again? I was like, no, 554 00:27:06,484 --> 00:27:08,884 Speaker 3: the reward is diminished and the risk is still the same. 555 00:27:09,444 --> 00:27:11,804 Speaker 3: I'm not going to skydive me Like it's it's not 556 00:27:11,844 --> 00:27:14,164 Speaker 3: worth it to me anymore, you know. And so I 557 00:27:14,284 --> 00:27:16,444 Speaker 3: use that all the time, Like my friend's like, oh, 558 00:27:16,444 --> 00:27:18,844 Speaker 3: we're going to go jump off this cliff and you know, 559 00:27:19,204 --> 00:27:21,524 Speaker 3: jump into the water over here when we're on vacation 560 00:27:21,684 --> 00:27:23,924 Speaker 3: and I'm looking at the cliff and I'm thinking to myself, 561 00:27:24,764 --> 00:27:29,004 Speaker 3: it's okay, It's like it would be fun but riskward. 562 00:27:29,084 --> 00:27:30,204 Speaker 2: Now it's out there, it's not. 563 00:27:30,364 --> 00:27:32,284 Speaker 3: First of all, it's not as fun as riding a motorcycle, 564 00:27:32,684 --> 00:27:35,124 Speaker 3: and you know, the risk seems weird, and so always 565 00:27:35,164 --> 00:27:41,484 Speaker 3: thinking about the risk reward financially, emotionally, physically, everything at 566 00:27:41,484 --> 00:27:44,124 Speaker 3: the time, well, I think leads you to a happier 567 00:27:44,164 --> 00:27:48,604 Speaker 3: and more prosperous life. Yeah, absolutely, according to your own values, 568 00:27:48,684 --> 00:27:51,844 Speaker 3: right Like some people like I absolutely love riding a motorcycle, 569 00:27:51,924 --> 00:27:53,644 Speaker 3: then it's worth it to them. I tell people like 570 00:27:53,644 --> 00:27:56,124 Speaker 3: I don't smoke cigarettes because the reward of smoking cigarettes 571 00:27:56,724 --> 00:27:59,244 Speaker 3: is like I don't like it enough, right Like I 572 00:27:59,244 --> 00:28:02,604 Speaker 3: don't like to me, it's nasty and whatever, and so 573 00:28:02,964 --> 00:28:05,764 Speaker 3: there's almost very little reward and the risk is very high. 574 00:28:05,804 --> 00:28:08,444 Speaker 3: But if I really love smoking cigarettes, like that fulfilled me. 575 00:28:08,484 --> 00:28:11,084 Speaker 2: It's my fucking cigarett, you know what I mean, Like, 576 00:28:11,124 --> 00:28:12,044 Speaker 2: it's just rich reward. 577 00:28:15,844 --> 00:28:29,124 Speaker 1: We'll be back after a quick break. I want to 578 00:28:29,164 --> 00:28:33,284 Speaker 1: briefly mention just because I think this is a theme 579 00:28:33,324 --> 00:28:35,764 Speaker 1: that informs a lot of what you do. Die with zero, 580 00:28:36,404 --> 00:28:39,444 Speaker 1: because that is kind of an underlying theme of that book, 581 00:28:40,524 --> 00:28:44,244 Speaker 1: and for people who haven't read it, you can of 582 00:28:44,284 --> 00:28:47,244 Speaker 1: course quickly say this thesis although the title of the 583 00:28:47,244 --> 00:28:51,044 Speaker 1: book is the thesis in many. 584 00:28:50,444 --> 00:28:52,804 Speaker 3: Ways, right, right, And so I guess the book is 585 00:28:52,844 --> 00:28:55,284 Speaker 3: about optimizing your life according to your own values. It's like, 586 00:28:55,324 --> 00:28:58,444 Speaker 3: I don't push how you should live. I've thought about 587 00:28:58,444 --> 00:29:00,244 Speaker 3: the mental models you should use in order to get 588 00:29:00,284 --> 00:29:02,604 Speaker 3: the most out of your life, no matter what fulfills you. 589 00:29:03,044 --> 00:29:05,204 Speaker 3: And so the think about the arc of your life 590 00:29:05,204 --> 00:29:09,004 Speaker 3: over time, you know, come to conclusions that your choices 591 00:29:09,044 --> 00:29:12,084 Speaker 3: and your experiences that you have or is your life. 592 00:29:12,164 --> 00:29:13,444 Speaker 2: That's the summation of your life. 593 00:29:13,844 --> 00:29:18,444 Speaker 3: And you know, you think about what fulfills you in 594 00:29:18,524 --> 00:29:21,324 Speaker 3: each time period, and these time periods pass. And so 595 00:29:21,484 --> 00:29:23,924 Speaker 3: if I optimize, if my life is the summation of 596 00:29:23,964 --> 00:29:26,364 Speaker 3: these time periods, and then I want to use all 597 00:29:26,364 --> 00:29:28,844 Speaker 3: my resources that I have, my wealth and health and 598 00:29:28,884 --> 00:29:30,604 Speaker 3: time throughout my life to drive fulfillment. 599 00:29:31,044 --> 00:29:32,484 Speaker 2: How do I think about that? Right? 600 00:29:32,644 --> 00:29:34,804 Speaker 3: And so one of the things you know, we were 601 00:29:34,804 --> 00:29:37,644 Speaker 3: talking about trying to understand risk reward, you got to 602 00:29:37,684 --> 00:29:42,404 Speaker 3: understand variables is when you have an experience, when you 603 00:29:42,444 --> 00:29:44,684 Speaker 3: go surfing, et cetera. It's not just the enjoyment of 604 00:29:44,684 --> 00:29:47,404 Speaker 3: experience at that time. It pays a dividend in the future. 605 00:29:47,684 --> 00:29:50,204 Speaker 3: You talk about it, you make friends, and I call 606 00:29:50,244 --> 00:29:54,804 Speaker 3: that the memory dividend, right, Like accessing that memory produces 607 00:29:54,804 --> 00:29:59,604 Speaker 3: fulfillment now, right, I crassly joke. Anybody who's masturbated understands 608 00:29:59,644 --> 00:30:04,244 Speaker 3: the memory dividend, right, and so they understand it in space, right. 609 00:30:04,284 --> 00:30:07,324 Speaker 3: And so when you invest in experiences, you get dividends, 610 00:30:07,324 --> 00:30:10,364 Speaker 3: whether that you know, going on you know, walking with 611 00:30:10,404 --> 00:30:14,964 Speaker 3: your daughter, doing charitable events, going to clubs, whatever. Most 612 00:30:15,004 --> 00:30:17,204 Speaker 3: of the time you talk with your friends, a significant 613 00:30:17,204 --> 00:30:20,004 Speaker 3: percentage of that conversation is about things that have already happened, 614 00:30:20,324 --> 00:30:22,044 Speaker 3: not things that are concurrently happen and are going to 615 00:30:22,084 --> 00:30:25,524 Speaker 3: happen in the future. And so getting those variables right 616 00:30:26,604 --> 00:30:30,924 Speaker 3: and thinking about, according to my values, what's the right 617 00:30:31,044 --> 00:30:33,764 Speaker 3: risk reward decision, what's the right allocation of my time 618 00:30:33,924 --> 00:30:37,564 Speaker 3: at this at this period of my life? How does 619 00:30:37,644 --> 00:30:41,604 Speaker 3: that How does this counterfactual regret minimization algorithm for net 620 00:30:41,604 --> 00:30:44,964 Speaker 3: fulfillment work? As as I as I progress from my 621 00:30:45,004 --> 00:30:49,164 Speaker 3: life from now to the grave, and so that helps 622 00:30:49,244 --> 00:30:54,204 Speaker 3: me think about do I show up this, per instance, 623 00:30:54,204 --> 00:30:56,924 Speaker 3: fiftieth birthday, Do I do I go to this wedding? 624 00:30:56,964 --> 00:30:59,164 Speaker 3: Do I play cards? Or do I watch a movie 625 00:30:59,324 --> 00:31:01,324 Speaker 3: with my wife? Or do I do you know, what 626 00:31:01,364 --> 00:31:06,724 Speaker 3: do I do? In these situations that don't necessarily have 627 00:31:06,764 --> 00:31:08,924 Speaker 3: hard numbers, like a roll of a dice or you 628 00:31:08,924 --> 00:31:11,484 Speaker 3: know what I mean, it's a flush draw and I'm 629 00:31:11,524 --> 00:31:13,684 Speaker 3: forty percent to make it or whatever it is you 630 00:31:13,724 --> 00:31:15,924 Speaker 3: know at the time, or combo draw, whatever it is. 631 00:31:16,884 --> 00:31:18,684 Speaker 3: When you don't have these hard numbers, you have to 632 00:31:18,684 --> 00:31:20,124 Speaker 3: think about the value system. 633 00:31:20,164 --> 00:31:22,164 Speaker 2: What's the risk reward? I will get this, I won't 634 00:31:22,164 --> 00:31:22,524 Speaker 2: get this. 635 00:31:22,564 --> 00:31:24,044 Speaker 3: If I do the ski trip now, I have the 636 00:31:24,044 --> 00:31:27,324 Speaker 3: memory dimbdend for ten years versus investing the money and 637 00:31:27,404 --> 00:31:29,884 Speaker 3: taking two key strip ten years of my life. But 638 00:31:30,524 --> 00:31:33,804 Speaker 3: you know, let's say I'm seventy two ski trips ten 639 00:31:33,884 --> 00:31:36,004 Speaker 3: years from now, it doesn't really make sense. You know, 640 00:31:36,124 --> 00:31:38,444 Speaker 3: I might not be alive, my knees not might work, 641 00:31:38,484 --> 00:31:40,804 Speaker 3: et cetera. If I'm twenty, maybe it does make sense. 642 00:31:40,924 --> 00:31:45,124 Speaker 3: Maybe nose to the grindstone, you know, do something else 643 00:31:45,124 --> 00:31:47,404 Speaker 3: that's not ski related with a group and then taking 644 00:31:47,444 --> 00:31:50,044 Speaker 3: everybody on two ski strips later. Who knows, I don't 645 00:31:50,044 --> 00:31:54,124 Speaker 3: know the answer. It's more of a methodology to think 646 00:31:54,164 --> 00:31:58,044 Speaker 3: about things in order to get the maximum high score, 647 00:31:58,044 --> 00:31:59,844 Speaker 3: and the high score in this case is net fulfillment. 648 00:32:00,644 --> 00:32:04,244 Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, for sure. I mean some of the 649 00:32:04,284 --> 00:32:08,444 Speaker 1: decisions you've made. One of my favorite things that you've 650 00:32:08,444 --> 00:32:11,444 Speaker 1: done recently in recent years is your purchase of The 651 00:32:11,484 --> 00:32:16,604 Speaker 1: Sugar Shack, which is this iconic painting by Ernie Barnes, 652 00:32:16,644 --> 00:32:19,564 Speaker 1: and you paid a record amount of money for that, 653 00:32:19,924 --> 00:32:23,844 Speaker 1: record breaking for him. And my favorite thing about the 654 00:32:23,924 --> 00:32:27,924 Speaker 1: story was that, so you flew to the auction to 655 00:32:28,004 --> 00:32:32,884 Speaker 1: be there in person with your fiance and apparently before 656 00:32:32,924 --> 00:32:35,164 Speaker 1: the bidding started you told her that, babe, you know, 657 00:32:35,244 --> 00:32:38,524 Speaker 1: if I pass out or anything else happens, just keep bidding. 658 00:32:38,684 --> 00:32:41,004 Speaker 1: Those were your instructions, because you're like, we are winning 659 00:32:41,004 --> 00:32:44,844 Speaker 1: this thing no matter what. Yeah, we talk. You came 660 00:32:44,884 --> 00:32:47,604 Speaker 1: there to buy that painting, and you were bidding against 661 00:32:47,644 --> 00:32:48,324 Speaker 1: George Lucas. 662 00:32:48,364 --> 00:32:51,684 Speaker 2: I think, I don't know, I mean, we think we think. 663 00:32:51,684 --> 00:32:55,724 Speaker 1: You were bidding against someone with a lot of money. So, 664 00:32:55,724 --> 00:32:59,324 Speaker 1: so walk me through though those instructions and that thinking 665 00:32:59,404 --> 00:33:01,404 Speaker 1: that you know, if I pass out, just keep bidding. 666 00:33:02,124 --> 00:33:06,884 Speaker 2: Yeah. So I uh, I wow. I don't get emotional 667 00:33:06,884 --> 00:33:07,244 Speaker 2: about this. 668 00:33:08,164 --> 00:33:10,004 Speaker 3: It was one of the things that I felt was 669 00:33:10,044 --> 00:33:12,084 Speaker 3: like a treasure. I think a lot of other people 670 00:33:12,244 --> 00:33:15,484 Speaker 3: outside of black art collectors or art collectors, are very 671 00:33:15,484 --> 00:33:17,884 Speaker 3: familiar with that painting. They've seen it in Good Times, it's 672 00:33:17,924 --> 00:33:21,004 Speaker 3: been on an album cover, it's it's in the it's 673 00:33:21,004 --> 00:33:24,964 Speaker 3: in the consciousness of America, and it's a unique piece. 674 00:33:24,724 --> 00:33:28,284 Speaker 2: Of American art, not just African American mart but American art. 675 00:33:28,204 --> 00:33:31,964 Speaker 3: Because the narratives in those paintings are only are you 676 00:33:32,044 --> 00:33:36,004 Speaker 3: uniquely American? Right, like an ice skating or eating an 677 00:33:36,044 --> 00:33:39,764 Speaker 3: apple or whatever, that's global, but the themes going on 678 00:33:40,084 --> 00:33:43,444 Speaker 3: in a lot of the African American arts are uniquely Americans, 679 00:33:43,444 --> 00:33:46,684 Speaker 3: like jazz a unique American art form, right. And so 680 00:33:47,844 --> 00:33:50,404 Speaker 3: with this backstory in this culture and this, you know, 681 00:33:50,484 --> 00:33:52,684 Speaker 3: might go like I wanted up one day as a 682 00:33:52,764 --> 00:33:54,884 Speaker 3: kid watching Good Times and seeing that painting at the 683 00:33:55,044 --> 00:33:57,804 Speaker 3: end of you know, every episode that I watched, you know, 684 00:33:57,884 --> 00:33:59,644 Speaker 3: I was like, Wow, I made it. I can I 685 00:33:59,724 --> 00:34:02,124 Speaker 3: wanted this piece, and I'd been collecting Barnes earlier. So 686 00:34:03,284 --> 00:34:06,444 Speaker 3: one of the risks I avoided was being online. I 687 00:34:06,444 --> 00:34:09,764 Speaker 3: didn't want anything go wrong. What if the computer went out, 688 00:34:10,044 --> 00:34:12,284 Speaker 3: or being on the phone, what if the phone went down? 689 00:34:12,324 --> 00:34:14,524 Speaker 3: What if what if you know, the internet service goes 690 00:34:14,564 --> 00:34:16,324 Speaker 3: down or whatever, because I'm on a cell phone. And 691 00:34:16,404 --> 00:34:18,884 Speaker 3: I was like, I can't risk it. I can't risk it. 692 00:34:19,084 --> 00:34:21,404 Speaker 3: We're gonna fly up the day before. So there's one 693 00:34:21,524 --> 00:34:24,604 Speaker 3: risk thing that I eliminated because how am I going 694 00:34:24,644 --> 00:34:26,964 Speaker 3: to feel if like I'm bidding and I don't get 695 00:34:26,964 --> 00:34:28,764 Speaker 3: to buy and then I don't get it. I would 696 00:34:28,804 --> 00:34:34,044 Speaker 3: I would just be distraught. So we flew up the 697 00:34:35,044 --> 00:34:38,164 Speaker 3: night before so we could be there. We walked around 698 00:34:38,204 --> 00:34:40,684 Speaker 3: our galleries, and we show up into the auction house 699 00:34:40,764 --> 00:34:44,284 Speaker 3: and that's all I'm coming to get. I thought it 700 00:34:44,364 --> 00:34:46,764 Speaker 3: was going to go for much cheaper than it then 701 00:34:46,964 --> 00:34:49,924 Speaker 3: it went. But I started to get suspicious when there 702 00:34:49,964 --> 00:34:52,604 Speaker 3: was a film crew filming, like the Barnes on the 703 00:34:52,804 --> 00:34:56,924 Speaker 3: on the thing, and so then the document Cody, the 704 00:34:56,924 --> 00:35:00,884 Speaker 3: guy who did the Genius documentary about Kanye West, was there. 705 00:35:01,244 --> 00:35:04,444 Speaker 3: He's like, he's doing a documentary on Barnes and it's 706 00:35:04,444 --> 00:35:07,244 Speaker 3: in the Night and this is Paintings in the Night auction, 707 00:35:08,364 --> 00:35:12,404 Speaker 3: which is really reserved for higher price art, but it 708 00:35:12,444 --> 00:35:15,004 Speaker 3: has an estimate like of a couple hundred thousand dollars 709 00:35:15,044 --> 00:35:16,884 Speaker 3: and I'm just like, what are they talking about? 710 00:35:17,684 --> 00:35:19,324 Speaker 2: And so I knew something was up. 711 00:35:19,364 --> 00:35:22,244 Speaker 3: I think it was a their psychological employ to get 712 00:35:22,244 --> 00:35:23,644 Speaker 3: a lot of bidders to show up to think that 713 00:35:23,684 --> 00:35:25,324 Speaker 3: they were going to get it going and get the 714 00:35:25,324 --> 00:35:25,884 Speaker 3: crowd going. 715 00:35:26,764 --> 00:35:29,644 Speaker 2: And so I saw myself. 716 00:35:31,124 --> 00:35:34,284 Speaker 3: As as my friend Rick Lowe, who's an artist, ran 717 00:35:34,364 --> 00:35:37,364 Speaker 3: Project row Houses as a genius Arthur Award. I bought 718 00:35:37,364 --> 00:35:38,924 Speaker 3: a piece of art before in two thousand and eight 719 00:35:38,924 --> 00:35:41,684 Speaker 3: financial crisis from another artist called Biggers, and he was 720 00:35:41,764 --> 00:35:45,164 Speaker 3: angry and I said why, And he says, because the 721 00:35:45,244 --> 00:35:48,444 Speaker 3: role of the art to collector is to signal to 722 00:35:48,484 --> 00:35:51,364 Speaker 3: the market that these works are worth preserving. You are 723 00:35:51,364 --> 00:35:54,844 Speaker 3: a steward of these works, right, And so the art 724 00:35:54,844 --> 00:35:59,004 Speaker 3: market sends a signal to the world and everybody that. 725 00:35:59,524 --> 00:36:01,364 Speaker 2: This is the culture. These are the things that are 726 00:36:01,364 --> 00:36:02,004 Speaker 2: worth preserving. 727 00:36:02,044 --> 00:36:03,444 Speaker 3: Like when you go to see in museums or what 728 00:36:03,484 --> 00:36:06,804 Speaker 3: people commissioned or bought, there are lots of works that 729 00:36:06,844 --> 00:36:09,404 Speaker 3: are not there, right, And the people from a thousand 730 00:36:09,564 --> 00:36:13,684 Speaker 3: years whatever, they decided what was worth preserving. Right, civilizations 731 00:36:13,724 --> 00:36:18,604 Speaker 3: come and go, the art remains, right, And so he 732 00:36:18,684 --> 00:36:19,044 Speaker 3: was pissing. 733 00:36:19,124 --> 00:36:21,004 Speaker 2: I took that to heart, and I was like, I am. 734 00:36:20,884 --> 00:36:23,244 Speaker 3: To be the steward of this work. It is not 735 00:36:23,484 --> 00:36:26,564 Speaker 3: valued properly, right, like, especially what I'm on board. So 736 00:36:27,444 --> 00:36:30,324 Speaker 3: I decided like this, this was it, This is the 737 00:36:30,364 --> 00:36:32,884 Speaker 3: piece I wanted, and I to my I was like, 738 00:36:32,924 --> 00:36:34,644 Speaker 3: I was very nervous. I was like, listen, if anything 739 00:36:34,644 --> 00:36:38,404 Speaker 3: happens to me, just keep bidding, don't worry about me, 740 00:36:38,684 --> 00:36:41,124 Speaker 3: keep bidding, because you know, I was worry about you. 741 00:36:41,204 --> 00:36:43,004 Speaker 2: Whatever. And and then off we went. 742 00:36:43,564 --> 00:36:46,484 Speaker 3: I thought, you can hear the auction, there's like somebody 743 00:36:46,484 --> 00:36:49,764 Speaker 3: did a cut. They're like it's just erupted, like you know, 744 00:36:49,924 --> 00:36:52,444 Speaker 3: hear me go five hundred thousand, you know, just trying 745 00:36:52,444 --> 00:36:53,044 Speaker 3: to like clear the. 746 00:36:53,084 --> 00:36:54,004 Speaker 2: Room, and it just keeps going. 747 00:36:54,044 --> 00:36:57,004 Speaker 3: I'm like, holy shit, you know one, you know, and 748 00:36:57,604 --> 00:36:59,324 Speaker 3: it's just going crazy. So I was like, okay, let 749 00:36:59,364 --> 00:37:01,804 Speaker 3: me get it to a let me scatter the roaches, 750 00:37:01,884 --> 00:37:02,924 Speaker 3: you know, get them out of here. 751 00:37:03,604 --> 00:37:05,444 Speaker 2: And this other bidder. 752 00:37:05,764 --> 00:37:09,764 Speaker 3: They had basically the same idea, but uh, I remember 753 00:37:09,884 --> 00:37:14,124 Speaker 3: during the middle of it, thinking like they would you know, 754 00:37:14,364 --> 00:37:17,164 Speaker 3: between seven and eight million. I took a long pause, 755 00:37:17,204 --> 00:37:20,404 Speaker 3: you know, they wait, and I was like, Okay, what 756 00:37:20,564 --> 00:37:23,124 Speaker 3: am I going to sell in order to buy this thing? 757 00:37:23,244 --> 00:37:24,724 Speaker 2: Like I need to you know what I mean? 758 00:37:25,004 --> 00:37:27,604 Speaker 3: Who am I going to borrow money from in order 759 00:37:27,644 --> 00:37:29,244 Speaker 3: to get liquid to buy this painting? 760 00:37:29,564 --> 00:37:31,444 Speaker 2: And then how high am I? 761 00:37:31,844 --> 00:37:33,604 Speaker 3: You know, like it got into numbers like what am 762 00:37:33,604 --> 00:37:34,084 Speaker 3: I selling? 763 00:37:34,124 --> 00:37:34,684 Speaker 2: How am I going? 764 00:37:34,684 --> 00:37:38,924 Speaker 3: Can I actually pull this off? Type numbers? But clearly 765 00:37:38,964 --> 00:37:43,524 Speaker 3: this professional bidder representative was was like he was getting annoyed. 766 00:37:44,004 --> 00:37:46,004 Speaker 2: It was like because. 767 00:37:45,764 --> 00:37:47,924 Speaker 3: Nobody expected this, Like you ga saw there's this TV 768 00:37:48,044 --> 00:37:50,924 Speaker 3: screen Hong Kong's up there right, you know, the Asian 769 00:37:50,964 --> 00:37:53,004 Speaker 3: bidders and all their agents are kind of looking at 770 00:37:53,084 --> 00:37:54,924 Speaker 3: us in the screen right this big giants it's like 771 00:37:54,924 --> 00:37:57,484 Speaker 3: a big brother screen, a fort wall and this pit 772 00:37:57,524 --> 00:37:59,884 Speaker 3: and everybody's looking at me and looking what's going on? 773 00:38:00,164 --> 00:38:02,044 Speaker 2: And they're like what the fuck is going on here? 774 00:38:02,124 --> 00:38:04,484 Speaker 3: You know, like nobody's and this guy has got to 775 00:38:04,524 --> 00:38:07,084 Speaker 3: be like, who the hell are you? Like this guy 776 00:38:07,164 --> 00:38:10,084 Speaker 3: in like jeans and a ball cabin, you know, just 777 00:38:11,044 --> 00:38:12,164 Speaker 3: never seen you before? 778 00:38:12,244 --> 00:38:12,804 Speaker 2: Who are you? 779 00:38:13,044 --> 00:38:16,404 Speaker 3: And he turns to me, he goes, I'm not going 780 00:38:16,444 --> 00:38:18,564 Speaker 3: to stop bidding, right, He turns to me, turns around 781 00:38:18,564 --> 00:38:21,044 Speaker 3: because I happened to be over here, and he tells me, 782 00:38:21,084 --> 00:38:22,884 Speaker 3: I'm not going to stop bidding, and I said, then 783 00:38:22,884 --> 00:38:25,404 Speaker 3: I'm going to make you pay, you know, and so 784 00:38:26,084 --> 00:38:27,484 Speaker 3: and then off we get again. You know, then the 785 00:38:27,564 --> 00:38:29,844 Speaker 3: rounds kept going, right, that was around seven or eight million. 786 00:38:29,924 --> 00:38:31,764 Speaker 3: You know, It's like, if you're not gonna stop bidding, 787 00:38:31,804 --> 00:38:33,604 Speaker 3: you're gonna pay a lot, buddy, because I want this. 788 00:38:33,604 --> 00:38:38,164 Speaker 2: This is for me, you know. And and and ultimately. 789 00:38:39,204 --> 00:38:42,524 Speaker 3: Fortunately they quit at the number they quit, and it 790 00:38:42,564 --> 00:38:43,044 Speaker 3: was amazing. 791 00:38:44,084 --> 00:38:47,684 Speaker 1: That's it's an amazing story. And but and the outcome 792 00:38:47,724 --> 00:38:50,884 Speaker 1: actually really nicely summarizes so many of the things that 793 00:38:50,964 --> 00:38:54,364 Speaker 1: we were talking about. You know, what you value, how 794 00:38:54,404 --> 00:38:57,404 Speaker 1: how you're valuing kind of the risks and the rewards, 795 00:38:57,644 --> 00:39:00,804 Speaker 1: and that you were valuing this specific painting for very 796 00:39:00,804 --> 00:39:05,364 Speaker 1: different reasons then the professional bidder, who also clearly understood 797 00:39:05,364 --> 00:39:08,244 Speaker 1: that this was a remarkable work but also needs to 798 00:39:08,284 --> 00:39:12,084 Speaker 1: fill in the museum has other priorities. And that kind 799 00:39:12,124 --> 00:39:15,564 Speaker 1: of calculus really really gets to the heart of the thing. 800 00:39:15,644 --> 00:39:17,724 Speaker 1: And I love how you mitigated the risks and you know, 801 00:39:17,764 --> 00:39:19,804 Speaker 1: the keep bidding. You were even you know, mitigating the 802 00:39:19,844 --> 00:39:21,244 Speaker 1: risk of heart attack, yeah. 803 00:39:21,084 --> 00:39:22,924 Speaker 3: Read a heart attack or passing off fate or like 804 00:39:23,044 --> 00:39:25,564 Speaker 3: just hyper like whatever could happen like and I know 805 00:39:25,684 --> 00:39:28,884 Speaker 3: I don't. I don't get nervous, Like I'm not like 806 00:39:29,004 --> 00:39:32,044 Speaker 3: it's like I've gone I've been a situation where you know, 807 00:39:32,164 --> 00:39:34,964 Speaker 3: we've had a massive year. My CFO is like, we're 808 00:39:34,964 --> 00:39:37,004 Speaker 3: gonna have to turn close the fun. We're gonna let people. 809 00:39:37,084 --> 00:39:38,884 Speaker 3: I'm just like, this is what we do. 810 00:39:38,924 --> 00:39:39,604 Speaker 2: I'm going to chop with. 811 00:39:39,844 --> 00:39:41,764 Speaker 3: Of course we made all the money, triple the money back, 812 00:39:41,804 --> 00:39:46,564 Speaker 3: et cetera. But you know, people get really down or 813 00:39:46,604 --> 00:39:48,604 Speaker 3: really nervous or whatever, and I'm just kind of like, 814 00:39:48,764 --> 00:39:49,084 Speaker 3: it is. 815 00:39:49,044 --> 00:39:49,484 Speaker 2: What it is. 816 00:39:49,764 --> 00:39:53,244 Speaker 1: Well, congratulations, I'm going to get that the painting ended 817 00:39:53,324 --> 00:39:56,404 Speaker 1: up in the right hands. Bill, thank you so much 818 00:39:56,524 --> 00:39:59,324 Speaker 1: for coming on Risky Business and sharing your wisdom with us. 819 00:39:59,764 --> 00:40:01,364 Speaker 1: I really really enjoyed this conversation. 820 00:40:01,884 --> 00:40:03,724 Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you for having me. I appreciate it. 821 00:40:12,324 --> 00:40:15,444 Speaker 4: Risky Business is hosted by me Nate Silver and me 822 00:40:15,604 --> 00:40:19,004 Speaker 4: Maria Kanakova. The show was a co production of Pushkin 823 00:40:19,004 --> 00:40:22,924 Speaker 4: Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. 824 00:40:23,364 --> 00:40:27,204 Speaker 4: Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our engineer is 825 00:40:27,244 --> 00:40:30,404 Speaker 4: Sarah Bruger. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 826 00:40:30,724 --> 00:40:32,444 Speaker 1: If you want to listen to an ad free version, 827 00:40:32,524 --> 00:40:35,204 Speaker 1: sign up for Pushkin Plus. 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