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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of this show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing

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Speaker 3: show for everybody today.

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Speaker 4: What do we have, Crystal, indeed we do.

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Speaker 2: We are digging into all of the crosstabs the election results.

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Speaker 2: How big of a win was it for Democrats, What

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Speaker 2: does it mean, what demographic groups shifted in which directions.

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Speaker 2: We're going to get into all of that. We're also

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Speaker 2: going to take a special focus on how much the

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Speaker 2: economy played a role in Tuesday's election night results. We're

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Speaker 2: also going to take a look at the shutdown. This

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Speaker 2: also connects to the election results. Trump is actually blaming

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Speaker 2: the shutdown and putting pressure on Republicans in the Senate

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Speaker 2: to nuke the filibuster in order to reopen the government.

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Speaker 2: You also have some real fallout now hitting, especially in

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Speaker 2: terms of air travel, so we'll take a look at

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Speaker 2: all of that. Also, yesterday, big day at the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 2: They heard oral arguments with regard to Trump's tariffs, and

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Speaker 2: six out of the nine of them sounded very, very

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Speaker 2: skeptical of the arguments for the government. It is looking

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Speaker 2: increasingly likely that Trump's terff regime will be struck down,

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Speaker 2: so obviously that is a seismic potential development there. We're

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Speaker 2: going to take a look at. Also a bunch of

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Speaker 2: stuff going on with the ADL. Jonathan green Blood actually

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Speaker 2: getting some pretty strenuous pushback from Joe Scarborough with regard

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Speaker 2: to his treatment of zoron Mamdanni, so that is an

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Speaker 2: interesting one.

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Speaker 4: We've also got some AI updates for you.

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Speaker 2: Sam Oltman crashing out in an interview after getting a

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Speaker 2: little bit of pushback on whether this whole open AI

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Speaker 2: and AI in general is overhyped, and then Representative Summer

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Speaker 2: Lee is going to join me to talk about Zoron's

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Speaker 2: victory and what it means for the country and the

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Speaker 2: Democratic Party moving It should be an interesting show.

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Speaker 3: That's right, and please go ahead and sign up if

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Speaker 3: the ground. Obviously a lot of travel, lots of logistics

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Speaker 3: in order to make stuff like that happen, but we

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Speaker 3: think it really elevates the show. It makes it a

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Speaker 3: go to on critical nights like election nights. So Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot Com if you want to join that coverage and

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Speaker 3: you see all the stuff afterwards. Thank you to everybody

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Speaker 3: who has been subscribing. If you can't afford it, no worries,

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Speaker 3: just send an episode to a friend or rates five stars.

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Speaker 3: It just really helps other people find the show. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: let's go ahead and start with twenty twenty five. So much,

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Speaker 3: so much data to synthesize, to put together in a

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Speaker 3: short amount of time, but we think we've done our best.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, pick some of the best, indeed, so let's just

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Speaker 2: go through some of the numbers here, so we all

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Speaker 2: know it was.

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Speaker 4: A shallacking for the Republicans.

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Speaker 2: Just how big of a shillaking, Well, here was one

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Speaker 2: indication we could put a one up on the screen.

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Speaker 2: So at the beginning of the night I saw an

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Speaker 2: election analyst too, you know, like a Twitter election analyst

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Speaker 2: who put this up of Okay.

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Speaker 4: Here's my metrics.

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Speaker 2: If Democrats get you know, zero to three of these

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Speaker 2: different things, and it's things like okay, Spanburger wins, Cheryl wins,

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Speaker 2: proposition passes, et cetera. If they get zero three, that's

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Speaker 2: a pretty catastrophic night for them. If they get four

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Speaker 2: to six, it's a bad night. If they get seven

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Speaker 2: to ten of these markers, it's okay. If it's eleven

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Speaker 2: to fourteen, that's a good night. And if it's fifteen

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Speaker 2: to eighteen of these markers, it's a fantastic night. Well

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Speaker 2: guess what after the votes were counted, eighteen of eighteen

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Speaker 2: on this list, and it really was across the board.

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Speaker 2: You look at the margin in Virginia, you know, Abigail

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Speaker 2: Spanberger just absolutely romping by fifteen points. Mikey Cheryl, I

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Speaker 2: think thirteen points was the final metric. In New Jersey,

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Speaker 2: every single county in Virginia shifted to the left, so

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Speaker 2: it was not a mixed bag at all. Those were

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Speaker 2: very high turn on elections. You also had in low

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Speaker 2: turn on elections that the Georgia state wide races were

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Speaker 2: actually crazy. You had a twenty point Democratic win in

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Speaker 2: two statewide races in the state of Georgia. You had

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Speaker 2: some things that were you know that we weren't even

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Speaker 2: paying that close attention to, like the Mississippi Senate now

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Speaker 2: they the Democrats broke the supermajority there, the Pennsylvania Supreme

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Speaker 2: Court races, when again wasn't even close for the Democrats.

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Speaker 2: These were three statewide races that Republicans were really focused

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Speaker 2: on because they matter in terms of election law and

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Speaker 2: adjudicating you know, different voting issues. Those overwhelmingly for Democrats.

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Speaker 2: So truly was a sort of coast to coast across

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Speaker 2: the board reckoning and soccer. I genuinely, usually in elections

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Speaker 2: there's like some little thing you can go, Okay, well

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Speaker 2: we did, you know, but we we held on to this,

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Speaker 2: or you know, we shifted voters here. I don't see

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Speaker 2: a single thing that Republicans can really point to. The

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Speaker 2: One thing I saw from Dave Wasserman is that in

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Speaker 2: the state of Virginia, where Democrats, you know, obviously won

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Speaker 2: all three of the state wide races, even the attorney

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Speaker 2: General's race when their nominee was you know, had these

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Speaker 2: texts have been revealed threatening like saying basically he wanted

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Speaker 2: his Republican opponent to be murdered. Pretty big scandal, and

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Speaker 2: he's able to win. Actually, he outpaced Tamala Harris in

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Speaker 2: terms of his victory margin in the state of Virginia.

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Speaker 2: But the one thing I did see is in the

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Speaker 2: House of Delegates, Democrats picked up I believe, thirteen seats.

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Speaker 2: They won all of the swing district They won all

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Speaker 2: of the districts that that Kamala Harris had won. Then

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Speaker 2: they won all of the districts that Trump had won

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Speaker 2: by zero.

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Speaker 4: To five points.

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Speaker 2: But he said at least they didn't win all the

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Speaker 2: ones that Trump won by five to ten points, so

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Speaker 2: the bottom didn't fall out entirely. I think it's maybe

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Speaker 2: the best thing that I saw the potential co by

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Speaker 2: so Offware report.

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Speaker 3: That's terrible because in the current environment, nobody wins by

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Speaker 3: five to ten anymore. The days of two thousand and

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Speaker 3: eight Barack Obama are long gone. People win by one

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Speaker 3: or two percent in the popular vote, and that's it,

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Speaker 3: and it's going to be a nail bider in terms

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Speaker 3: of the electoral college for the foreseeable future. There's just

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Speaker 3: not a lot of independent voters that are out there anymore.

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Speaker 3: Even when turnout goes sky high, there's high levels of partisanship.

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Speaker 3: So no, I think there's no question that this was

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Speaker 3: an absolute blowout against the Republicans, and any Republican telling

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Speaker 3: you otherwise is absolutely lying to you. Let's go and

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Speaker 3: put the next one up on the screen, because this

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Speaker 3: is the most important one. Actually, you've heard it here

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Speaker 3: before on the show. The NBC News exit poll shows

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Speaker 3: that voters who dislike both parties break for Democrats, and

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Speaker 3: the key behind that is that a lot of Republicans

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Speaker 3: are trying to hang their hat on the fact that

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Speaker 3: Democratic approval rating is actually lower in some cases than

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Speaker 3: Republican approval rating. But the case of that is that

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Speaker 3: many of those are partisan Democrats who are fed up

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Speaker 3: with their own party that doesn't even not going to

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Speaker 3: come home to vote.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 3: A lot of Republicans are fed up with their party

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Speaker 3: as well, but that are not coming out to vote.

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Speaker 3: So if you put that together, you see a supermajority

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Speaker 3: really of a lot of the people who came to

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Speaker 3: the polls who are basically anti Republican. That's very different

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Speaker 3: than being Democrat, right, It's kind of like how we've

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Speaker 3: talked about MAGA, very distinct from the Republican party brand.

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Speaker 3: And I do also think that's a key element of

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Speaker 3: the story. The low propensity voters just didn't come out.

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Speaker 3: It's not a surprise, it's off your election. A lot

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Speaker 3: of the Democratic coalition is a lot of people who

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Speaker 3: are college educated, people who read the news, who are

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Speaker 3: much much much more tuned in to the election, not

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Speaker 3: to mention the fact that they have something to vote against.

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Speaker 3: And if you're a Republican, you have all three branches

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Speaker 3: of power, and that really giving you a reason to

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Speaker 3: come out and to defend anything like oh yeah, please

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Speaker 3: come out and support our governor so we can continue

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Speaker 3: the shutdown or so we can have regime change in Venezuela.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's like, well, what if you're a republic

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Speaker 3: what reason would you possibly have to go to the poll.

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Speaker 3: So that's all together, you know, in Virginia as well,

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Speaker 3: the composition of the electorate. The breakdown that I saw,

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Speaker 3: it's overwhelmingly like Kamala Harris voters. If just those types

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Speaker 3: of voters had come out in twenty twenty four, she

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Speaker 3: would have won the state by landslide, right, And I

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Speaker 3: think that that largely was the case in all of

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Speaker 3: these elections. And yeah, I mean that's why it's a

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Speaker 3: meme to say it all comes down to turn out,

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Speaker 3: but actually it is true, because at the end of

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Speaker 3: the day, you're subject to the people who come out

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Speaker 3: to vote for you. So I think that's really the

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Speaker 3: story of this entire night of twenty twenty five. And

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Speaker 3: the Republicans are in big, big trouble on a number

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Speaker 3: of issues. One is the shutdown and two and we're

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Speaker 3: going to get to this here in a little bit.

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Speaker 3: They are turning themselves into Joe Biden. I mean, when

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Speaker 3: your chart posting about why the economy is actually good.

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Speaker 1: You're dead, You're you're you're you're long gone.

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Speaker 3: I mean, how and especially when you lived through defeating

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Speaker 3: a president previously, where Bidenomics was a ridicule, it was

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Speaker 3: literally a term of ridicule. And every time one of

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Speaker 3: these pansy economists would come to the White House podium

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Speaker 3: under Biden. I mean you and know how many, how

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Speaker 3: many of these we cover? The Actually the economy is good.

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Speaker 3: If you look at it compared to this, or if

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Speaker 3: we cut things off right at COVID, then it shows

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Speaker 3: like an upward trajectory. Well, they're doing the exact same thing,

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Speaker 3: and so yeah, it's just it's all bad. It's all

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Speaker 3: bad in every direction they've got. I mean to say,

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Speaker 3: work to do presumes it can be fixed. I think

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Speaker 3: this is this cake is baked for twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 3: I mean, not everything is certain in politics. But you know,

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Speaker 3: even if you did okay, you were probably still looking

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Speaker 3: at losses. And now with that jerrymandering, I would be

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Speaker 3: feeling real uncomfortable to jerrymander seats in Texas fifty two,

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Speaker 3: forty eight Ohio potentially in play shared Brown. There's a

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Speaker 3: number of Senate seats. Susan Collins, she's gone. The only

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Speaker 3: question is who's gonna.

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Speaker 4: Who's gonna take around.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure they'll be I'm sure they'll be clipped when

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Speaker 3: Susan Collins wins. But I think, actually, do you remember

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Speaker 3: they clipped us saying Susan Collins would lose whenever she

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Speaker 3: did win. So that's in particular, why would Susan Collins's

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Speaker 3: campaign actually clipped that.

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Speaker 2: Well, so the to bolster your point on jerry mandering,

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Speaker 2: because you know, Republicans are being very aggressive with the

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Speaker 2: way that they're drawing these districts, and the assumption underpinning

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Speaker 2: that is that any Republican is going to be able

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Speaker 2: to more or less maintain the Trump voting coalition from

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 4: I don't know why they think that that is happening.

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Speaker 2: And you know, if like if they were unclear on

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Speaker 2: how much people have shifted away from Trump and how much. Look,

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Speaker 2: it's never been the case that a general like generic

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Speaker 2: Republican is able to pull together the same coalition as Trump.

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Speaker 2: But also a lot one of those voters have moved

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Speaker 2: away from Trump to and so one of those key demographics,

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Speaker 2: of course Latinos, and we can put a three up

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Speaker 2: on the screen, this is the overall Latino numbers.

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Speaker 4: You can see the shiftteria.

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Speaker 2: This was an area where Trump was very proud of

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Speaker 2: his his progress and so they say that Latino voters

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Speaker 2: swung hard in the go his favor Nationally last November

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Speaker 2: with the presidential winning forty six percent support to Harris's

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Speaker 2: fifty one percent. With Latinos. On Tuesday in New Jersey,

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Speaker 2: the answer was no, that they could hold on to them.

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Speaker 2: Cheryl won sixty four percent of Latino voters to Chitarelli's

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Speaker 2: thirty two percent. That is per CNN's exit poll. We

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Speaker 2: got more. The next element we can put up on

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Speaker 2: the screen as well, So this was Steve Kornaki, I believe,

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Speaker 2: pulled all of the municipalities that are sixty percent plus Hispanic.

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Speaker 4: So you can see in.

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Speaker 2: Twenty twenty four, Trump even won one of these districts Pasaic.

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Speaker 2: Trump got plus seven this time around Mikey Cheryl plus

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Speaker 2: twenty six. In every single instance, you see massive swings,

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Speaker 2: like thirty point swings, double digit at least, and some

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Speaker 2: of them are like fifty point swings towards the Democrats

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Speaker 2: here and so again, when they were drawing these districts,

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Speaker 2: particularly in Texas, they were assuming some level of strength

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Speaker 2: with Latino voters, and that is far from a certain.

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Speaker 4: Assumption at this point.

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Speaker 2: And just to give you one example of how tightly

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Speaker 2: they're drawing these districts, in Utah, they drew two districts

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Speaker 2: that are now swing districts. One of them was Trump

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Speaker 2: plus two and the other was Trump plus six.

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Speaker 4: Democrats now have a real.

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Speaker 2: Shot to pick up two seats in the state of

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Speaker 2: Utah because of the way that they drew these maps. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: you have the California ballot proposition pass overwhelmingly crazy turnout

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Speaker 2: for to go and vote just with this one proposition

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Speaker 2: that was wild to see. So California is going to

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Speaker 2: be aggressively redrawing their maps. Virginia, now Democrats have a

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Speaker 2: large margin in the House of Delics, in the legislature,

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Speaker 2: and of course all statewide offices. They're also looking at

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Speaker 2: redrawing their maps. There's another Maryland is also jumping in

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Speaker 2: the fray as well. So what Republicans started, Democrats have

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Speaker 2: now joined the fight, and they're drawing maps that, given

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Speaker 2: the national climate, are much more likely to work out

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Speaker 2: to their advantage. So it is not crazy to think

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Speaker 2: at this point that it could actually be the Democrats

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Speaker 2: that benefit.

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Speaker 4: From this overall.

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Speaker 2: You know, we're all going to redistrict everything right now

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Speaker 2: in this particular moment, given how much the Trump coalition

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Speaker 2: has already fallen apart with Latino voters also with young men.

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Speaker 2: By the way, you know, it is not looking like

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Speaker 2: this was a wise direction for Republicans.

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Speaker 3: We so so the case that really needs to be

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Speaker 3: you know, hammered home here is that the Republicans fell

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Speaker 3: victim to the same mindset that the Democrats styed in

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Speaker 3: two thousand and eight Democrat demographics destiny. Right, they were

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Speaker 3: assumed white working class would always be Democrat, they would

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Speaker 3: add an increasing large coalition of Latino and black voters,

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Speaker 3: and thus they would win. Well, Republicans now learned Texas

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Speaker 3: that over a five year period, a significant part of

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Speaker 3: South Texas Latinos started to vote Republican and just assume

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Speaker 3: they would vote Republican forever. Now, considering that they voted

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Speaker 3: for Hillary by some forty points, why would you ever

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Speaker 3: assume that, right?

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's so stupid.

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Speaker 3: It actually begs like how you can professionally even be

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Speaker 3: in this business. But it does really demonstrate also the

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Speaker 3: folly of assuming that anyone is ever for you all

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Speaker 3: the time. I also think, you know, with the sample,

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Speaker 3: one of the things that's really important, as I underscored

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Speaker 3: to say, it's been a Latino swing, it's about the

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Speaker 3: Latinos who turned out to vote. It also shows you

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four, when you need a larger number

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Speaker 3: of people who did come out to vote. Yes, some

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Speaker 3: of them, many of them actually in fact voted for

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump. But in an off year election, if the

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Speaker 3: Latinos that you're going to mobilize are the ones who

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Speaker 3: are pissed off at Trump, then yeah, you're gonna see

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Speaker 3: huge numbers in that direction. So to assume monolith, it's

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Speaker 3: not like it's a sample of the same types of voters.

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Speaker 3: And I guess that's the only possible cope you could.

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Speaker 2: Come up with, really cold, because midterm elections are also

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Speaker 2: going to be that game.

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Speaker 1: I was going to say, right, I mean exactly for.

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Speaker 2: An off your election, turnout was pretty high in you know, Virginia,

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Speaker 2: New Jersey, other key place in New York it was unbelieving. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: New York City turnout was more general.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it was the main race. Turnout was was why

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Speaker 4: which But I.

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Speaker 1: Actually support that.

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Speaker 3: I love that because it means that the you know,

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Speaker 3: you had similar turnout to the presidential and it's like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: that actually affects your life long in a local.

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Speaker 2: Sense, because it's not like New York is really hotly

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Speaker 2: contested in presidential election. So this was a much more

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Speaker 2: actually hotly contested race. So it does make sense that

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Speaker 2: turnout would be so high in any case. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the indications are that even in the places where you

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Speaker 2: had the highest turnout for and off your election, obviously

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Speaker 2: it was still a you know, total schal acking across

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Speaker 2: the board. Let's put a five up on the screen.

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Speaker 2: I mentioned this before, young men. We see, you know,

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Speaker 2: significant swings here. This is a demographic that Trump narrowly

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Speaker 2: won in twenty twenty four. And now you see Abigail

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Speaker 2: Spamberger one and by fourteen, Mikey Cheryl one by ten.

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Speaker 2: Sara and Mandane won them by forty, by the way,

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Speaker 2: in New York City, and you know, the biggest divide.

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Speaker 2: There are a number of interesting divides in that race

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Speaker 2: that I'll get into later a bit with with Summer lead,

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Speaker 2: but the biggest divide was generational. I mean, Zoron one

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Speaker 2: overwhelmingly with young voters and Cuomo one with older voters.

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Speaker 2: So that was, you know, the biggest divide to take

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Speaker 2: out of that race in particular. But you can see

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Speaker 2: that we covered even before the election the way that

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Speaker 2: Trump's approval rating has fallen off a cliff with young voters.

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Speaker 2: He's now in the like twenties when it comes to

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Speaker 2: his approval rating with young voters. Again, this is a

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Speaker 2: demographic that Republicans are very proud to have improved significantly with,

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Speaker 2: especially again young men, and you can see that those

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Speaker 2: gains have largely significantly evaporated.

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Speaker 3: It's the same thing as to Latino. It's the young

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Speaker 3: dudes are going to be pissed off at Trump. The

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Speaker 3: young guys who like Trump or were Trump there just

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Speaker 3: probably shouldn't come.

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Speaker 1: Out to vote.

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Speaker 3: So it's going to be skewed toward the Democrats. And

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Speaker 3: then even with the swing ones, I mean, look, at

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Speaker 3: the end of the day, that's all that matters. Like,

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Speaker 3: it's not like all young people voted in the twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five twenty twenty four elections, same in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: But if the people who do come out to vote

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Speaker 3: are overwhelmingly going to be polarized in particular from social media,

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Speaker 3: from activism, whatever, then of course you know you're going

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Speaker 3: to have a huge drop in that. So yeah, it's

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Speaker 3: a huge problem here because there was a level of

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Speaker 3: online enthusiasm for the Republicans in twenty twenty four. That

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Speaker 3: evaporated in the span of a year. It's honestly impressive

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Speaker 3: to tortu yourself that quickly. And there's let's think about

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Speaker 3: the reasons why there's been so much analysis online. My

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Speaker 3: personal favorite, by the way, is that Republicans beefing with

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Speaker 3: each other is why Republicans didn't come out to vote.

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Speaker 3: I was like, yeah, for sure, that's definitely the reason why.

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Speaker 3: Or maybe it has to do with a monomaniacal obsession

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Speaker 3: with Israel for an entire year. And the fact is

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Speaker 3: is that the basics of life have not changed at all.

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Speaker 3: There's no optimism that they will change at all. There's

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Speaker 3: no plan to make it so that they will change

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Speaker 3: at all. So people, one thing I appreciate about the

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Speaker 3: younger generation is that they are cynical to the point

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Speaker 3: of if you don't do something for me very quickly,

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Speaker 3: I don't believe you anymore. Because at a certain point,

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Speaker 3: we've seen the movie so many different times that after the.

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Speaker 1: One big beautiful bill, you're like, I've explained it here.

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Speaker 3: We only opened the tax code once every five years,

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Speaker 3: So they opened it and that was it, and we

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Speaker 3: got extension of the tax cuts, and nothing is really

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Speaker 3: changing in terms of housing policy, industrial posity, whatever, anything like.

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Speaker 3: Whatever the basics are, indust rates are not going anywhere.

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Speaker 3: As we've complained explained here as well. Trump can, to

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Speaker 3: the best of his ability try, but the tariffs complicate

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Speaker 3: that story as well, which also at the very least

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Speaker 3: either made things more expensive but is injected an element

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Speaker 3: of chaos. And so the full picture means that if

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Speaker 3: you voted for Trump because you wanted to try and

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Speaker 3: buy a house and you thought that it would help

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Speaker 3: you economically, that story is basically dry it up, and

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Speaker 3: at this point you don't have enough trust for the

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Speaker 3: next three years to put it into the Republican Party generally.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go.

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Speaker 4: And also look if you were kind of like a

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Speaker 4: Vibes voter.

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Speaker 2: Which you know, I mean based on the sense of

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Speaker 2: the podcasts and him, you know, having a lot of

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Speaker 2: success there and going on there and getting some word

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Speaker 2: from that world. I mean, we've been tracking the way

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Speaker 2: that they've shifted, right and the way that and I

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Speaker 2: think this is where things like the Epstein files actually

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Speaker 2: do make a big difference, because the fact that you

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Speaker 2: credibly put yourself out there is this very anti establishment figure.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna be different, You're gonna be exposing the secrets

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Speaker 2: all of that stuff. And then you come in and

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Speaker 2: you're like, Nope, not releasing that Epstein files. Nothing to

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Speaker 2: see here. And by the way, I'm in the Epstein files.

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Speaker 2: You know, that's a big blow to your brand and

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Speaker 2: Trump of everyone, well understand how important a brand truly is. Yes,

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Speaker 2: And then when you have the you know, I think

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Speaker 2: Israel is another certainly fault line, especially for young voters.

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Speaker 2: And then you have, like you said, a you know,

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Speaker 2: total fixation on those sorts of issues over now. Trump

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Speaker 2: says he's going to work on affordability next year. Okay,

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Speaker 2: don't worry whenever you have time to get around to that.

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Speaker 2: So all of those pieces come together where you know,

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Speaker 2: if you're someone who thought he seemed cool going into

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, you're no longer necessarily feeling that way.

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Speaker 3: If I think it's if I think back to a

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Speaker 3: year ago, and if I think back to the Vibe

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Speaker 3: election from September to November, which was like the height

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Speaker 3: of what it all was. Ultimately, why did the podcast

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Speaker 3: Young Guys Generation back Trump? I think it's because there

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Speaker 3: is something exciting about anything revolutionary which seems different. This

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Speaker 3: is the same of a Zoron Mundani phenomenon. It is different.

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Speaker 3: You can't deny it, right, You can't say that a

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Speaker 3: Cash Patel and a RFK Junior and all these people

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Speaker 3: it told it was you'd never seen anything like it.

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Speaker 3: You'd never seen anything like And then Biden was the

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Speaker 3: physical embodiment of an ossified political establishment. Kamala Harris was

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Speaker 3: the embodiment again of just being handed something because of

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Speaker 3: the color of your skin and of your gender. There

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Speaker 3: was no competitive primary and it was just foolish. Everything

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Speaker 3: that was vibes based around common seemed utterly and totally manufactured.

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Speaker 3: The Trump one was truly organic, I think, at a

436
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 3: level of excitement, and that always was going to evaporate

437
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 3: because that's the reality of colliding with power and of

438
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,479
Speaker 3: actually having to make decisions like it turns out you

439
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 3: can't appease Tulsea Gabbard and Marco Rubio in the same coalition.

440
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 1: Shocker.

441
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 3: If you knew anything about Washington, you knew would be dumb.

442
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 3: But I mean a lot of people did believe it.

443
00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 3: And Trump also made a lot of promises. We've talked

444
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 3: here about voters something that I checked the stats on

445
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,880
Speaker 3: these yesterday. Statistically there are between one hundred and two

446
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 3: hundred thousand people who voted for Trump because of free IVF,

447
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,960
Speaker 3: which I wish you'd ask me. I told you you're

448
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 3: an idiot, but listen, they did it. And so how

449
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 3: I'm going to talk about this in our zoron thing?

450
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 3: It is so, I mean, when you believe in something

451
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,160
Speaker 3: and when you get burned, there is truly nothing worse

452
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,359
Speaker 3: than that. Whenever you were a younger, especially probably lower

453
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 3: propensity voter, or you maybe have still some faith in

454
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 3: the political system. So there's that times what a million

455
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 3: for housing, for trying to make things better inflation, cost

456
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 3: of living. Foreign policy, I mean, nobody votes on foreign policy,

457
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:15,199
Speaker 3: but my true belief is that foreign policy matters because

458
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 3: it like hovers in the ether.

459
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,120
Speaker 1: And if you watch the news, I.

460
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 4: Don't agree that nobody votes on format. Well, I think

461
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 4: of the Iraq war.

462
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 1: So that's kind of the thing.

463
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 3: Is nobody in normal time votes on foreign policy, but

464
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 3: when they do, they vote hard on it. And I

465
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:31,679
Speaker 3: will not say Israel is the number one reason that

466
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,439
Speaker 3: Trump lost yesterday in the or two days ago in

467
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 3: the twenty twenty five. But I do think that there's

468
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 3: just something sick about watching this obsession with the political

469
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 3: elites of this foreign country while your life gets worse.

470
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 3: That's why the Zoron answer how much of it was

471
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 3: sure him saying next on you, I was a war criminal.

472
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,359
Speaker 3: There's a certain element of the DSA crowd which is

473
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:54,640
Speaker 3: going to go wild for that shit.

474
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 1: But there's a.

475
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,880
Speaker 3: Certain element of an everyday New Yorker who really doesn't care.

476
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 3: And when Zoron' says something like I'm gonna stay here

477
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 3: in New York, it's like, hey, fuck yeah.

478
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 1: Man, I'm in on this right.

479
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 3: And there's the reason I've said that's the most viral

480
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 3: moment of his whole campaign, the whole nationally was I'm

481
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 3: staying here in New York.

482
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 1: Donald Trump and his people cannot.

483
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 3: Credibly say that because of how they've governed over the

484
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 3: last year. So I think there's a I mean, I mean,

485
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,119
Speaker 3: top to bottom, it's all baked in. You talk about vibes,

486
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 3: the truth is is like the vibe at that time

487
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 3: is that it was physically exciting to try to see

488
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 3: something new. Now we have what that new is, We've

489
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 3: lived through it up. Now, for what ten months approximately

490
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 3: that he has been the president of that ten months,

491
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:46,639
Speaker 3: nothing seems all that different, and if it does, it's worse.

492
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 3: So it's like in a worse Israel direction, the worst

493
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 3: economy direction, and or flat, which in my opinion is

494
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 3: worse because it means it nothing happened about it. And

495
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 3: then also I talk about this immigration. Remember during LA

496
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 3: I was like, the warning is chaos is The people

497
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 3: who were pissed off about immigration were mad at the

498
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 3: chaos of the border under Biden and of the uncontrolled,

499
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 3: unlimited amount of migration into the US. But this time around,

500
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 3: every fucking story that you read is about chaos. Oh,

501
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 3: I said, this video says that they're lying. I mean,

502
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 3: how many tiktoks or they're floating around.

503
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 2: I just saw this morning some ice agent and Chicago charged.

504
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 4: With a g duy.

505
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 1: This is what I'm saying.

506
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 4: The broad View facility.

507
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 2: Another one was out there bragging about what a good

508
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 2: marks money is after he shot a woman five times. Yeah,

509
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 2: I mean, I think and to that point, this is

510
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 2: what I've been thinking about. I think people, not just Americans,

511
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 2: I think people in general will accept a lot of

512
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 2: authoritarianism if the trains ru't on time and their material.

513
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 1: Condition it's called China.

514
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 2: But you know, they aren't in it for the authoritarianism's sake.

515
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 2: And that's effectively what the Trump administration. Instead of making

516
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: your life better, right, dealing with healthcare prices, dealing with

517
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 2: cost of groceries, dealing with education prices, dealing with just

518
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 2: generally the sense that things are going to be harder

519
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 2: for my kids than they were for me, the AI

520
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,679
Speaker 2: apocaly I mean, they're ushering in the AI, you know,

521
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 2: taking all of your jobs. So instead of doing anything,

522
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 2: they thought it would be enough to have these images

523
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 2: of you know, in this authoritarian crackdown, like that's what

524
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 2: people really elected them for. No, people are actually willing

525
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: to tolerate some of that if it's making their life better.

526
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 2: But you can't have that for its own sake and

527
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 2: think that that is going to appeal to people.

528
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 4: People are going to fucking hate that, and they do.

529
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 2: And so you know, I think the big verdict here

530
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 2: is on the Trump economy, but I do, and but

531
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 2: the authoritarian crackdown piece. First of all, that demotivates their

532
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 2: own base who have been upset about the free speech abuses.

533
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 2: And some of those things as well, but even more importantly,

534
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 2: you are going to energize the hell out of the opposition.

535
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:56,640
Speaker 4: They are going to come.

536
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 2: They will crawl over broken glass to vote your ass out.

537
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 2: They will that don't tread on me. Instinct runs deep

538
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 2: in America. And so if you are triggering that and

539
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 2: you are not giving anything on the other side to

540
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 2: compensate for it, and meanwhile throwing yourself great Gatsby Halloween

541
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 2: parties while the food stamp benefits are being cut and

542
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 2: air travel is chaos and federal government workers are fur

543
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 2: load building yourself a multi hundreds of millions of dollar ballroom,

544
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 2: gilded ballroom, you know, and demolishing part of the historic

545
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 2: you know nature of.

546
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 4: The White House.

547
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 3: You know.

548
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:37,879
Speaker 2: It's like I actually saw voters reference that in their vote. Yeah,

549
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 2: because I think those images do touch something deep. I mean,

550
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 2: it does feel directly like this Gilded Age thing where

551
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 2: they're out there partying in this incredibly oculent way in

552
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 2: his gilded.

553
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 1: Golden you know, golden.

554
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 2: White House and you're struggling to make ends meet and

555
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 2: there's zero sense that anyone is doing anything for you. Yeah,

556
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,360
Speaker 2: people are going to vote your ass out. They are

557
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 2: going to in Mississippi, in Colorado, in Virginia and New

558
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 2: Jersey wherever they can. They are going to go and

559
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 2: say this is not what I wanted if I voted

560
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 2: for you before. This is not what I voted for,

561
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 2: And I'm going to do whatever I can to send

562
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 2: a message that you have gone so far off track.

563
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 2: So I really do think, you know, when you put

564
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 2: all of those things together, Look, I think the Akonda's

565
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 2: a good transition to you know, the economy piece that

566
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 2: we could put a seven up on the screen here.

567
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 2: I do think the economy is the central piece. But

568
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 2: these other factors, whether it's Israel, whether it's the you know,

569
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 2: the just gaudy show of wealth and opulence sucking up

570
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,239
Speaker 2: to these tech oligarchs and handing them everything that they

571
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,399
Speaker 2: could possibly want. The crypto, yeah, the smash and grab,

572
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 2: I mean, all the corrupt deals and patting the pockets

573
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,679
Speaker 2: of you and your family and your aids, the insider trading,

574
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 2: all of that sort of stuff. And you couple that

575
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: with a dire economic landscape that feels like it's only

576
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 2: getting worse and worse. Yeah, there's going to be a

577
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 2: political reckoning there to pay. So this was a g

578
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 2: Elliot Morris wrote this up, and the astonishing thing here,

579
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,959
Speaker 2: if we can hold on this for a moment, is

580
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,959
Speaker 2: that you had a voter's number one issue, as it

581
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 2: usually is, was the economy. If you look at Abigail

582
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 2: Spanberger in Virginia, forty eight percent of voters that the

583
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: economy was their number one issue. Of those, sixty three

584
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 2: percent voted for Abigail Spanburger. In New Jersey, similar numbers,

585
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 2: thirty two percent said that the economy was their number

586
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,679
Speaker 2: one issue. Taxes was another one that was a significant

587
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 2: issue there as well. I think Chitarelli really put that

588
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 2: on the table. But in any case, of those economy voters,

589
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 2: Mikey Chierro won sixty five percent. Guys, this represents a

590
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 2: ninety three point swing away from the Republicans. Compared to

591
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty four election. Economy voters went for Trump

592
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 2: in the sixty percent. So it was the number one

593
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 2: issue in twenty twenty four, and those voters overwhelmingly chose Trump.

594
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,199
Speaker 2: And now here we are a year later and Democrats

595
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 2: are winning two thirds roughly of the voters who say

596
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 2: the economy is their number one issue. Put a eight

597
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 2: up on the screen. Here because I think this is

598
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 2: also really important. I mentioned this before the election, but

599
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 2: I just wanted to underscore this. This is incredibly telling.

600
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 2: So right now, in November twenty twenty five, seventy two

601
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,919
Speaker 2: percent of Americans say economic conditions in the country today

602
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 2: are poor seventy two percent, only twenty eight percent say

603
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: that they are good. If you rewind back to Trump's

604
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: first term, to the same period, in Trump's first term,

605
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 2: you had an almost complete flip of those number. Sixty

606
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 2: eight percent at that point said actually, the economy is

607
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 2: good and only thirty percent said it was poor. And

608
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 2: I will remind you that even with those sorts of

609
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 2: strong economic numbers you still had a bad backlash election

610
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen that was overall very positive for Democrats.

611
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 2: So now with the economic numbers looking so dire and possible,

612
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: you know, we're obviously tracking clothes with AI bubble and

613
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 2: what that means, and all of these layoffs some caused

614
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 2: by AI as well. Things could be worse by the

615
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 2: time we get to the midterm elections, and so that

616
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 2: reckoning happen in twenty eighteen. Just imagine what we could

617
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 2: be in store for here in twenty twenty six six.

618
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 4: Given that you have all kinds.

619
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 2: Of upset over Trump and you know, his authoritarian tactics

620
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 2: and his foreign policy and all those sorts of things,

621
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 2: and you also have incredibly dire economic conditions and very

622
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 2: negative sentiment about the economy.

623
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 3: It doesn't take a genius to figure it all out,

624
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 3: does it, You know, to your point about authoritarianism or

625
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 3: just generally like, what is society in particular?

626
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, sorry, let's not go too deep.

627
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 3: But everyone agrees that if somebody is threatening someone on

628
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 3: the street, that their rights have to be at least

629
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 3: somewhat deprived so that other people's rights are not deprived. Correct, right,

630
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,239
Speaker 3: everyone agrees with that. Now, when I think about the

631
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,719
Speaker 3: most authoritarian but high functioning societies in the world, you

632
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 3: can look at Singapore, where you literally cannot enter the

633
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 3: country with chewing gum. They do public canings, they have

634
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 3: rigid enforcement. But when you're in Singapore, it's awesome. Okay,

635
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 3: that's the dirty little secret about it. People who live

636
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 3: there they like it, and honestly why because it's clean,

637
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 3: It functions, they have good jobs, They have an extremely

638
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 3: high level of state functioning, and they buy into that

639
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 3: and they don't really care very much. In fact, they

640
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 3: laugh at America and they say we are less free

641
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 3: because of our freedoms. They're like, yeah, you are free,

642
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 3: you know, to be assaulted by somebody. You're free to

643
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 3: live in a shithole, You're free to have horrible public transit.

644
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 3: When you ask the Chinese people who actually broadly support

645
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 3: the Chinese Communist Party, they're like, yeah, I can't talk

646
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 3: badly about Chi Shingping, but you know, remember that video

647
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 3: I showed you of Chengdu from nineteen eighty to today.

648
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 3: If you live through that, I mean, that's one of

649
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 3: the most extraordinary economic and physical transformations in the history

650
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 3: of mankind. So yeah, you're like, okay, whatever, but here,

651
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 3: I mean, be honest, have things gotten better?

652
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: No? All right, and you know it's not the same.

653
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 3: We don't have centralized control, and there's local stuff and

654
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 3: all of that. But at the end of the day,

655
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 3: if you don't give somebody a lot of benefits and

656
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: you see that happening, then obviously people are gonna say, well,

657
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,719
Speaker 3: I'd rather at least not have to deal with that

658
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 3: or to feel as if there is chaos in my country.

659
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 3: And I think broadly that's where even the people who

660
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 3: do support some of this are they all admit the chaos,

661
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 3: but they're saying that the chaos is the point. I

662
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 3: think there is like a logical insanity to that, which

663
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 3: is that it incites self deportation.

664
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: So you can say, Okay, you know it's.

665
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 3: Net worth it or whatever in the end, but I

666
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 3: don't think that's a gamble that ninety percent of people

667
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 3: are willing to take. Which is part of the issue

668
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 3: is that broadly, under Biden it felt chaotic. This is

669
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 3: just not just not immigration, but I think generally, like

670
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 3: because his old age made it so that nobody was

671
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 3: running the show.

672
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 1: And you know under Trump here.

673
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 3: There's there's kind of an element to that as well,

674
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 3: because you have all these disparate parts of the government.

675
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 3: They're not talking to one another, and everybody's constantly beefing.

676
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm still knee deep in Venezuela.

677
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 3: I'm getting calls every single day from all he changed

678
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 3: his mind, you know, by the way, I can currently

679
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 3: update that he has changed his mind currently because of

680
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: a more recent update.

681
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 4: We're in Nigeria.

682
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, we may bomb Nigeria.

683
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 3: But my point around Venezula, right, it's like one of

684
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 3: those where everyone is kind of just willing is under

685
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 3: this uh you know, this mafio so like system where

686
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 3: people who are vying for the ears of the boss.

687
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 1: Remember my analogy of Trump is that it's like Versailles.

688
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 3: Right, It's like whoever gets the ear of King Louis

689
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 3: while he's taking a ship is ultimately the great victor.

690
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 4: And I think those checked down half the time too.

691
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: I mean there's still this ballroom ship and all.

692
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 2: This, all the the ice stuff that's like all you know,

693
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 2: put into Stephen Miller Purview and christinom and whatever the.

694
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 3: Even they're fighting, you know, like Stephen and Kissedy, you're fighting,

695
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 3: and then Corey Lewandowski, her alleged boyfriend, is the person

696
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 3: who is underneath that. Yeah, and then you've got the

697
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 3: border patrol guy who's beefing with the head of Ice guy.

698
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 3: And then you got Tom Holman who's beefing with him.

699
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 3: And it's like, trying to explain this to a liberal

700
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 3: doesn't make any sense because they don't actually understand like

701
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 3: the intra.

702
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: Like you know, party like beef over.

703
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 3: But it actually does matter because it matters in where

704
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 3: it is right now in a lot of ways, you know,

705
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 3: ICE is losing because their image is being subsumed by

706
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 3: Border Patrol. Now again try and explaining that to a

707
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: defund abolished ICE person, but it actually kind of matters

708
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 3: because the ICE people are like, hey, we want to

709
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 3: arrest criminals, drug dealers, rapists, and the Border patrol people

710
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 3: are like, no.

711
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 1: We want to do these vast raids. Ever receives everybody up.

712
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 2: They're the ones who did like the apartment right exactly,

713
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 2: with the Blackhawk military helicopters. They actually are more militarized

714
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 2: and have like they have their own like basically mini

715
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,479
Speaker 2: air force. They have drones, they have helicopters whatever, and

716
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 2: so yeah, they and there it looks like they're winning

717
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 2: the battle. Right now, you had a huge you know, ICE,

718
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: a bunch of ICE guys who got fired and replaced

719
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 2: with CBP types. So in any case, you're to your point. Yes,

720
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,839
Speaker 2: even though there's a lot happening, but every week it's

721
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 2: you know, we're here, we're there, this is our focus.

722
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 2: That's our focus. Now we're in this city. No, we're

723
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 2: not getting into that city. And meanwhile, you've got you

724
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 2: know these images of like mass thugs, tear gas and

725
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 2: kids go into a Halloween parade. I don't think it's

726
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 2: making people feel like, oh, you've got the sounder control

727
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 2: and I'm going to get some actual benefit out of this.

728
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: Another example of the authoritarianism that you know has been

729
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 2: popular is but Kelly right down an El Salvador and

730
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 2: but what did he do? He you know, through you

731
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 2: admit that through I mean through his First of all,

732
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 2: they had much worse crime than we had right in

733
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 2: terms of the level of lawlessness, and he genuinely threw

734
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 2: horrific tactics that I would never support.

735
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 4: He has brought the crime rate down, but you might.

736
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 3: Support You might support that if you had people getting

737
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 3: beheaded in the streets and Marisoft whatever you call it.

738
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 2: You know, I can't say it because I've never you know,

739
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 2: I've ever lived in that sort.

740
00:34:58,480 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: I mean I remember thinking about it.

741
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 3: But you do territory tarritory here, oh, which horrific I'm like.

742
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, well yeah, drug dealers everywhere shooting people.

743
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 1: I don't know, you know, maybe I'm going to get

744
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 1: to a point too where I'm.

745
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, kill them, okay, right, And you've never lived

746
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 3: through that, where you have no idea.

747
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 2: Extra judicial assassinations of random people in the ocean, and

748
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 2: you know, and meanwhile, the actual number of indictments of

749
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 2: drug traffickers, human traffickers like those sorts of things, the

750
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 2: actual you know, the even the the deportation of violent

751
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 2: criminals is down because instead they're just going after you know,

752
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 2: your home depot guys, and you're your you know, ladies

753
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 2: selling to Molly's on the street or whatever. In any case,

754
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 2: the bigger point that I said before is the one

755
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:41,399
Speaker 2: that I've been thinking about, which is that yes, people

756
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 2: will tolerate authoritariness, but only if it's actually benefiting them,

757
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 2: and only if it comes around along with some sort

758
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 2: of market increase in their material well being. They're not

759
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 2: going to take mass thugs in the street. And I

760
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 2: can't afford stake anymore, and I can't make rent at

761
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 2: the end of the month, and rent is going up,

762
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 2: and my healthcare premiums are going up one hundred percent

763
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,919
Speaker 2: this year year, and you shut down the government can't

764
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: bother to do anything about it. No, they're not going

765
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 2: to take that. And so you know, your own supporters

766
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 2: are going to be demoralized. The opposition is going to

767
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 2: be incredibly, incredibly energized. And will you know, do whatever

768
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 2: it takes to send that message. And so, you know,

769
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 2: one of the things I've been very worried about the

770
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 2: Matum elections and like the you know, the jerrymandering and

771
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court coming in and them seizing all the

772
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 2: voter rolls and you know, all the executive orders, and

773
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 2: I've been very obviously tracking that very closely. What's hardening

774
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 2: to me about this is it does look like things

775
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 2: are going to be too big to rig, and that

776
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 2: the very likely the Latino voters, you know, that have

777
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 2: shifted and all of these demographics that they counted on

778
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 2: to still be in their camp are going to screw

779
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 2: their jerrymandering ambitions and it's going to be too much

780
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: for them to be able to overcome. Now what's going

781
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 2: to be interesting to see is how do they respond.

782
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 2: So you know what, first of all, one option is

783
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 2: they just bury their hand head in the sand. Publicly,

784
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 2: we're seeing a lot of that, you know JD Van saying, oh,

785
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 2: these were just New Jersey and Virginia blue states. We

786
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 2: can't really read anything into that, which is he knows

787
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:06,240
Speaker 2: that's not true.

788
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 4: He knows because he's.

789
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 2: Looking at these same results of freaking Mississippi and like,

790
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 2: you know, all of the Georgia and Pennsylvania.

791
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 4: He knows.

792
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 2: But I see a lot of that of basically like

793
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 2: it's no big deal, this doesn't mean anything. We're not

794
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,320
Speaker 2: going to read anything into it. So one possibility is

795
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,720
Speaker 2: you just stay the course and you don't really do anything.

796
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 2: Another possibility is you try to adjust. You take the

797
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 2: message of like, Okay, people are sending us this message

798
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 2: on affordability. Trump is now talking about affordability NonStop. I

799
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 2: saw Ryan say on Twitter he is like, by the

800
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 2: end of the week, he's going to be talking about

801
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 2: fast and free public buses and just totally taking the

802
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,799
Speaker 2: Zorn mantle. But in any case, we also have, you know,

803
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 2: one of his who is this guy? Campaign political director

804
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 2: from twenty twenty four talking about how Trump plans to

805
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 2: refocus his messaging on cost of living.

806
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

807
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 5: Seventy five percent of Mickey Cheryl's ads were positive, overwhelmingly

808
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 5: talking about cost of living and heavily talking about low

809
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 5: during power costs. Jack didn't really talk about that. He

810
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 5: talked about taxes, and he won the tax vote, but

811
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 5: he didn't address those key issues of affordability very effectively.

812
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 5: He was mostly talking generically about change New Jersey. And

813
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 5: I'm not denigrating Jack, but it was not in line

814
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:16,479
Speaker 5: necessarily with what voters were saying too. In Virginia, over

815
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 5: half of when some series ads talked about transgender and

816
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 5: it's not even the top five issues according to voters.

817
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 5: Why did John Mondani do so well last night? He

818
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 5: relentlessly focused on affordability. People to talk about communists, They

819
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,320
Speaker 5: can say all these things, but the fact is he

820
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 5: was talking about the cost of living.

821
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 3: Folks that I'm talking to privately who are supporters of

822
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 3: President Trump think that he needs to be talking about

823
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 3: cost of living a.

824
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 4: Whole lot more.

825
00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:42,479
Speaker 5: I think you'll see the President talk a lot about

826
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:44,879
Speaker 5: cost of living as we turn the year and into

827
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 5: the new year. The President is very keyed into what's

828
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,359
Speaker 5: going on, and he recognizes, like anybody, that it takes

829
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 5: time to do an economic turnaround, but all the fundamentals

830
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 5: are there, and I think you'll see him be very

831
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:56,320
Speaker 5: very focused on prices.

832
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 2: Sager, can you give me a view into the White

833
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,879
Speaker 2: House and like how they think about the economy right now?

834
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, none of them are stupid.

835
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 3: They did win an election a popular vote man the

836
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 3: first since two thousand and four of a Republican. So

837
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 3: that's one thing where we shouldn't always discount necessarily the

838
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 3: political skill of the comeback. This happened to Bill Clinton,

839
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:20,360
Speaker 3: this happened to I mean multiply, I could go on

840
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 3: for Obama. Right, all of these people who did seriously

841
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 3: get checked in the first two years of their presidency

842
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 3: adjusted course, maybe not to the benefit of the country

843
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 3: but to their own political benefit. Their sense generally is

844
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 3: that the president does need to talk more about the

845
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,320
Speaker 3: White House, but about the economy.

846
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 4: But I'm complaining about the White House too.

847
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 3: Much about the White ho what But this is what

848
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 3: always belies the problem is, this is not a normal

849
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 3: white house. Trump is a singular figure who actually doesn't

850
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:50,240
Speaker 3: have to run for reelection.

851
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 1: Again, that's part of the reason.

852
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,840
Speaker 3: He's doing the ballroom and labeling the Oval office in

853
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 3: gilded script that you may see at a mar Lago resort.

854
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,839
Speaker 3: That's kind of the stuff he doesn't always care, right,

855
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:04,240
Speaker 3: And then you have all of these disparate other people.

856
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 3: You have the cash grab section, which includes like his

857
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: son and his own family. Then you have the people

858
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 3: who are pursuing their own ideological dender. Let's say Marco Rubio,

859
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 3: who's trying to push a regime change in Venezuela, JD

860
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 3: who has to try and balance being good to his

861
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 3: boss and wanting to run in twenty twenty eight. So

862
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 3: he's probably in the worst position because he's to defend

863
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 3: all this shit. Anni has potentially run on it again.

864
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 3: Then you got the secretaries of Scott Bessant, who are

865
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 3: you know? Scott is ultimately a creature of Wall Street.

866
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,959
Speaker 3: He does not want to be humiliated in his job

867
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 3: because he eventually has to go back.

868
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 1: That's what they people all do.

869
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 3: Look at Steve Mnuschan and others, And by the way, Munush,

870
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 3: part of what guided his behavior when he was a

871
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 3: Secretary of the Treasury is he's currently still back on

872
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 3: Wall Street. They need to maintain some credibility. So you know,

873
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,840
Speaker 3: that's why he's bailing out his friends on Argentina. Okay,

874
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 3: Like it's all pay for play, like in terms of

875
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,319
Speaker 3: what the future is. So there's no one sense of

876
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 3: the White House. At any one moment, my phone is

877
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,479
Speaker 3: blowing up from a different contingent of the White House

878
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 3: who are pissed at their other colleagues in the White House.

879
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 3: I can look, I've only ever covered really Trump, like

880
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 3: I had no real insight into the Biden administration. They

881
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 3: are leaking to a very different but everything I've ever read,

882
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 3: that's not all that common in a white house. So yes,

883
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 3: there's a huge contingent of his white House which is

884
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 3: upset with the direction that they are taking. But I

885
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 3: think the demonstration is that they don't have a lot

886
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 3: of power to compel a change in behavior because they're

887
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 3: all playing the same game. Sometimes they win, sometimes they don't.

888
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 3: So on the affordability piece generally. Did you notice the

889
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 3: language that he said, we're going to talk more about it.

890
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 3: Talk is cheap bruh, It's all yeah, it's just like Biden. No.

891
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:52,239
Speaker 3: After the gas prices went up to five dollars, everyone's like,

892
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 3: fuck you, all right, I don't want to hear were

893
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 3: you have to say exactly? And this is the problem

894
00:41:58,280 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 3: you know that they have right now? Their heads were

895
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 3: far their ass and they believe the vibe shift. I

896
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,760
Speaker 3: actually think that more than anything, it's an information bubble.

897
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:07,280
Speaker 3: You can see this with a huge amount of Republicans.

898
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 3: Twitter elon buying Twitter is one of the worst things

899
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 3: that are happened to them because it definitely helped them

900
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,800
Speaker 3: win the election. But there's no question in the world

901
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 3: that a lot of them have their own bullshit. And

902
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 3: there's also a huge perverse incentive in Maga world to

903
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 3: make suck up to the White House. Right, So, no

904
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 3: one's inviting me back to the briefing room anytime soon.

905
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 3: Nobody is pitching me Scott Besent or whatever for some fleffent.

906
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 3: It's not happening, okay, because they demand total fealty.

907
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:34,879
Speaker 1: Like the days of me.

908
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 3: Trying to get a Trump interview or whatever, it's over.

909
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 3: It's not going to happen. But that's the issue, is

910
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 3: that these people all suck up to them and so

911
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:43,399
Speaker 3: they don't really tell them what they want to hear.

912
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 3: So the White House is in a situation where they

913
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 3: don't trust mainstream media and they don't even really believe

914
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 3: anything that they say. You know, to be fair, they

915
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 3: won two elections out of three, so or in their

916
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:53,839
Speaker 3: mind three out of three.

917
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 1: But whatever.

918
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 3: The point though, is that the stuff that they're consuming,

919
00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:00,840
Speaker 3: there's one person, one Tucker Carlson, who is willing to

920
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 3: be like, yeah, I think what you guys are doing

921
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 3: is wrong.

922
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 1: But turn on Fox News.

923
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:08,319
Speaker 3: Turn on Glenn Back, turn on any you know right

924
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 3: wing aligned podcast. It's all propaganda all the time. Go

925
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 3: on Twitter, you can follow entire accounts. It's which a

926
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 3: lot of these people in the White House do. They're

927
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 3: more online than anybody who are just mainlining propaganda about

928
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 3: how great they are. So imagine, you know, the information

929
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 3: environment that they're swimming in. That's really dangerous actually when

930
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 3: you're in power. And that's why I think some of

931
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 3: them are really shocked at the election results.

932
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 1: I really do.

933
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 3: I mean, I think they knew they were gonna lose.

934
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 3: But you know, there's all this downballot stuff that nobody

935
00:43:38,160 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 3: else cares about except for people like me, like the

936
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 3: Bucks County school Board, which was about like a harbinger

937
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 3: of the young kin, you know, revolution, anti CRT, trans

938
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 3: stuff like the trans mafia is fully back in control.

939
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 3: If you live in any of these places, So yeah,

940
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 3: we're fucked. If you're a parent, it's not good.

941
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 2: Right to your point, someone share this stat you know

942
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 2: these moms for liberty school board candidates or like you know,

943
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:10,320
Speaker 2: conservative or whatever. There were thirty one contested races involving

944
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 2: Moms for Liberty candidates.

945
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:13,439
Speaker 4: You know how many they won? Zero?

946
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, all thirty one lost every one. And that's why

947
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 2: it was such a reckoning. I mean even look, I

948
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:21,200
Speaker 2: was expecting it to be bad for Republicans. I was

949
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 2: not expecting the coast to coast everything from Georgia and Mississippi.

950
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:30,959
Speaker 2: And I mean every single whether it's a local level

951
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:34,280
Speaker 2: or a state level or somewhere in between, at every

952
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 2: single level, it was a uniform shift and reckoning against

953
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 2: the Republicans. And so I'm sure they are shell shocked

954
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 2: and so yeah, so you know, the interesting thing will

955
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,879
Speaker 2: be to see if they do more than just say like, oh,

956
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: next year, we're going to get around to talking about affordability.

957
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 2: As to your point, talking about it is not I mean,

958
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 2: they would have to do a total one to eighty

959
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 2: on what they've been doing. And this will be a

960
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 2: good transition actually into the terroriffs. Well we've got terrorists.

961
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 2: Later on, we'll talk about how the Supreme Court's going,

962
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:05,320
Speaker 2: you know, going to probably rescue them from their tariff insanity.

963
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 2: But you have to do a total one eighty on

964
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 2: the economy. You have to actually deliver on healthcare, you

965
00:45:09,080 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 2: have to actually make people feel like their lives are

966
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 2: getting better, and you got to pull the mass thugs

967
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:15,360
Speaker 2: down in the neighborhoods. You got to take back the

968
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 2: National Guard, like you have to do a complete, complete

969
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 2: one eighty on the way that they've been running this

970
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 2: administration thus far, or you have to really try to

971
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 2: go full a deloritarian and make it so that votes

972
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:29,359
Speaker 2: don't matter. And I just don't know if there is

973
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 2: enough that they could do at this point to truly

974
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:35,720
Speaker 2: make sure that, you know, come twenty twenty six, there's

975
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 2: no meaningful elections whatsoever. I think it's sort of too

976
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 2: far gone for you know, it would take too much

977
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:44,319
Speaker 2: and spark too much of a backlash if they were

978
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 2: to do what it would take to make it so

979
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 2: that there were really no meaningful elections.

980
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, can it be fixed? I'm not so sure.

981
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 3: I'm I'm of the belief that Biden was dead by

982
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:58,279
Speaker 3: October of twenty twenty one. I don't think there was

983
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 3: any world where a could have won after that period

984
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 3: because of the way that he ran the country up

985
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 3: to that time, with the inflation and the spike that

986
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 3: eventually happened, and then his eventual deterioration. I really, I

987
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 3: don't see a world where a democrat could have ever

988
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 3: won twenty twenty four. Maybe that's a little bit too reductive,

989
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 3: but I don't know. I mean, if I let's think

990
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:21,280
Speaker 3: about it, I mean, think about the approval, the vibe,

991
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 3: everything was DoD I mean, if you think back to that,

992
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 3: that's what Youngkin happened, and they were given you know,

993
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 3: tiny little savior with Roe versus Wade, which gave them

994
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:31,720
Speaker 3: a lot of hope, and then they were dead.

995
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 1: I mean, it was literally over.

996
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 3: So I'm starting I'm starting to feel a lot of

997
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 3: the same way. We're right around the same time. Obviously

998
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:42,439
Speaker 3: a lot could change, But on the horizon I see

999
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 3: much less chance of success and many more pitfalls for things.

1000
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 3: Where I see an ai bubble on the horizon, I

1001
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,399
Speaker 3: see a tear of problem on the horizon. I see

1002
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 3: an international crisis with Taiwan. On the horizon, I see

1003
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 3: regime change in Venezuela. I see Israel and Iran just

1004
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 3: sitting there, just waiting for something to happen for some

1005
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 3: sort of international crisis.

1006
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 1: Ukraine not you know, is still going on.

1007
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 3: There's a reason we don't want these things to happen,

1008
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 3: because it doesn't take a genius to read a book

1009
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 3: and say, at any moment, at any time, the globe

1010
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,919
Speaker 3: can explode, and gas prices can explode right and could

1011
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:18,479
Speaker 3: go all the way up like they did under Bible,

1012
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 3: and they can sink your presidency. So this is and

1013
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 3: that's why it's to your benefit to try to get

1014
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 3: these things all wrapped up. I mean, if you asked

1015
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 3: me when the vibe turned against Trump, what would you say?

1016
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 3: I would say March. And by the way, see I disagree.

1017
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:34,439
Speaker 3: I think they turned before that. I think it was March,

1018
00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 3: March of twenty What was that March of twenty twenty five?

1019
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 3: And if we think back, the vibe was with Doge.

1020
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:40,640
Speaker 1: They were winning.

1021
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 3: I think the vibe wars in the original war. There

1022
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 3: was the ceasefire that initially happened in February under Steve Wikoff.

1023
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,319
Speaker 3: A lot of the promises made, promises kept, stuff was there.

1024
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 3: The revolution still felt as if had had energy, and

1025
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 3: right around March something began to change where the doe'e

1026
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:01,799
Speaker 3: reality started to hit. The opposition started to start to

1027
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 3: flare up, the sheer stupidity of a lot of the

1028
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 3: White House's statements and things falling apart believe Seacott was

1029
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 3: around that time as well. So if you think about

1030
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 3: all that together, that is when people were like whoa, whoa, whoa,

1031
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:16,280
Speaker 3: you know, and that's exactly when I started to see

1032
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 3: a few dissident comments. Yeah, and then things exploded by

1033
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 3: I would say, may have twenty twenty five.

1034
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,960
Speaker 2: You know, if you actually look at his approval rating,

1035
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 2: one of the hits he took was on kil Mar

1036
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 2: Brego Garcia. Yeah, because that wrapped up Seacott and lawlessness

1037
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 2: and all of that sort of stuff, and Democrats a

1038
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:35,360
Speaker 2: few of them actually got around to like making a

1039
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 2: point about it, and it sort of focused people's minds on,

1040
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:40,399
Speaker 2: you know, what was going on in this administration would

1041
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:43,360
Speaker 2: it actually look like? But I do actually feel like

1042
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 2: the Epsteine files were a critical turning point too, because

1043
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 2: that's when you got some maga voices being like, dude,

1044
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 2: what the hell you know?

1045
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 4: And when you have.

1046
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: Your own side all shut up? Didn't they?

1047
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 2: When you have your own side, yeah, they sure did.

1048
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 2: But when you have your own side chirping at you,

1049
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 2: that's always, you know, a difficult thing.

1050
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 1: Let's get to the shutdown.

1051
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 3: I know we're still a bit tight on time, So shutdown,

1052
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 3: we need to focus here on Trump and kind of

1053
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 3: his view of where things are. He kind of said

1054
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 3: the quiet part out loud, which are never supposed to

1055
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 3: do in the shutdown. By the way, we are now

1056
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 3: officially in the longest shutdown in American history. And he

1057
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 3: was like, well, the Republicans, He's like, it didn't have

1058
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 3: anything to do the mid terms with the shutdown, but

1059
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 3: also maybe it did have to do with the shutdown.

1060
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say.

1061
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 6: But I thought we'd have a discussion after the press

1062
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:31,280
Speaker 6: leaves about what last night represented and what we should

1063
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 6: do about it, and also about the shutdown and how

1064
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 6: that relates to last night. I think if you read

1065
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 6: the polsters, the shutdown was a big factor negative for

1066
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 6: the Republicans, and that was a big factor. And they

1067
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:47,480
Speaker 6: say that I wasn't on the battle it was the

1068
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 6: biggest factor, but I don't know about that, but I

1069
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 6: was honored that they said that.

1070
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 1: So you could see what he's saying there.

1071
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 3: Well, you know, if you read the polsters, the shutdown

1072
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 3: was a big factor negative for Republicans. But I was

1073
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:02,359
Speaker 3: and all the ballot and also, don't worry, the shot

1074
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 3: didn't have too much to do with it. That's why

1075
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 3: we need to nuke the filibuster, and that's you know,

1076
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 3: obviously that's gaining some steam, although I don't think that's

1077
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 3: really going to happen with a lot of these Republicans.

1078
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 2: Well, and reportedly behind closed doors, he was much more like,

1079
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 2: we've got to open the freaking government.

1080
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,359
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I mean, look, he's not stupid. I mean,

1081
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 3: anybody who's looking.

1082
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 4: Right now I feel like that is that is cope.

1083
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 2: Because if you think that these election results were just

1084
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:26,799
Speaker 2: about the shutdown, sure, I think they actually had no

1085
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:27,839
Speaker 2: pretty little to do with it.

1086
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 3: I totally agree. But nothing is worse than chaos. I mean,

1087
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 3: what did I just say? What a feeling of out

1088
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 3: of control? Actually, let me just go and put that

1089
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:35,799
Speaker 3: up up the top. B seven, please put that up

1090
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 3: here on the screen. The last element. The FAA just

1091
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 3: today announced it's cutting thousands of flights starting tomorrow due

1092
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 3: to the shutdown, ten percent of air traffic at forty

1093
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:50,320
Speaker 3: major airports. I cannot even quantify the billions of dollars

1094
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,839
Speaker 3: in lost profit, productivity and more.

1095
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 1: As a result of this.

1096
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 3: Airline stock's going to take a dive. I mean, just

1097
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 3: the sheer amount of chaos that that is going to cause.

1098
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 3: I cannot the only person who's going into Thanksgiving. Genuinely,

1099
00:51:03,600 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 3: if the shutdown is gonna happen, I'm probably gonna cancel

1100
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 3: it because the airport Houston that I would have flown

1101
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 3: in and out of had a three and a half

1102
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 3: hour line for security, for pre check, for three and

1103
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 3: a half hour line. And I'm like, yeah, I'm not

1104
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:21,799
Speaker 3: subjecting my kid to that, like having a six month book,

1105
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:25,759
Speaker 3: like it's not happening, Like I would rather die, I

1106
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 3: rather walk. Yeah, i would walk from Houston to Washington, DC.

1107
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 3: I'm not the only person, I bet you well.

1108
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 2: And that is like, you know, most of the year,

1109
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:39,439
Speaker 2: it's mostly like business traveler, Like Thanksgiving is the time

1110
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 2: when normal people are traveling with their kids and they

1111
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 2: are planning far in advance. So they're looking now at

1112
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 2: these headlines and going, I don't know if this is

1113
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:51,600
Speaker 2: gonna happen, Like I may pull my trip, I may

1114
00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:54,240
Speaker 2: not make those plans. I'm sorry, Grandma, it's not happening

1115
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:56,640
Speaker 2: this year. I mean, those sorts of things are already

1116
00:51:57,000 --> 00:51:59,399
Speaker 2: happening with where we are in the shutdown right now.

1117
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,319
Speaker 3: Yeahctly so there's that with the shutdown, and then there's

1118
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 3: the politics of the shutdown, with Mike Johnson saying speaking

1119
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 3: out saying, actually the shutdown had nothing to do with

1120
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:09,960
Speaker 3: what happened, and to take a listen to that.

1121
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 2: I don't think the loss last night was any reflection

1122
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 2: about Republicans at all.

1123
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:16,960
Speaker 1: I think people are frustrated and angry as we are.

1124
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 1: I am, the president is, and we expressed that different ways.

1125
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 1: Oh did it? Okay? Yeah, exactly. Okay.

1126
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:29,719
Speaker 3: Then you've got some of the stuff going on right

1127
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:33,840
Speaker 3: now with the Democrats where no shit, they're hardening their position.

1128
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 3: Wouldn't you after you just won this elections put the

1129
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 3: next one please on the screen? The Democrats warned of

1130
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:41,880
Speaker 3: hell to pay if they cut the quote week post

1131
00:52:41,920 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 3: elections shutdown deal, So they showing that they are absolutely

1132
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:49,719
Speaker 3: ironclad they don't want to budge. Because of the healthcare premiums,

1133
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, actually, you know what's interesting, My

1134
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:56,239
Speaker 3: tweet about my in laws went massively viral. Really yeah,

1135
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:58,239
Speaker 3: because I twittered their insurance premium. It wasn't even a

1136
00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 3: political statement. I just had my Obamacare premiums went from

1137
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:03,840
Speaker 3: eighteen hundred to forty two hundred.

1138
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:07,719
Speaker 1: A month, and I mean it got like thousands.

1139
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 3: Of retweets and it was shared like all over the

1140
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 3: health spectrum. Republicans were like, yeah, see, that's why there

1141
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:15,279
Speaker 3: shouldn't be any subsidies, and then Democrats were like, see

1142
00:53:15,320 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 3: this is what happened to. But I was like, that's

1143
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,280
Speaker 3: just the reality, okay, And as you and I have discussed,

1144
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:21,760
Speaker 3: Obamacare is a horrible system.

1145
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 1: No one should even be paying eighteen hundred dollars.

1146
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 3: No one should be trying to subsidize eighteen to forty

1147
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 3: two hundred dollars. By the way they had there, it's

1148
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:31,320
Speaker 3: not that they're or the early retirees of Mike and Shelley.

1149
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:35,400
Speaker 3: They're self employed, okay, just over everybody's for everybody's information,

1150
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 3: and you know, they just happened to live in this

1151
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 3: little state called Pennsylvania, if you've ever heard it, And

1152
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 3: maybe maybe it's electoral important somebody else can can enlighten

1153
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 3: me as to what it is.

1154
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,360
Speaker 1: But that's happening to a lot of people.

1155
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 3: And no matter who you are really on the political spectrum,

1156
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:51,919
Speaker 3: if you go from eighteen hundred to forty two hundred

1157
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 3: a month in healthcare, you are just going to start

1158
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:58,800
Speaker 3: asking a lot of questions about whose fault is that. Again,

1159
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 3: I think Obamacare is a whole horrible system. I think

1160
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 3: the subsidies are incredibly stupid and they just subsidize the

1161
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 3: healthcare companies. I think it actually inflates healthcare prices. I

1162
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,400
Speaker 3: could go on forever about the critics, but at the

1163
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 3: end of the day, you're still probably going to be

1164
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:12,879
Speaker 3: in a more politically popular.

1165
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 1: Position to say, hey, hey, hey, let's not make.

1166
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:16,239
Speaker 3: It so people have to pay forty two hundred dollars

1167
00:54:16,239 --> 00:54:19,720
Speaker 3: a month for healthcare right in the immediate term. So yeah,

1168
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,120
Speaker 3: that's kind of a winning position, especially if you're that's

1169
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:25,240
Speaker 3: what you're generally going to offer people. Put it all together,

1170
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,239
Speaker 3: it's not good. And there's like maybe one Republican who

1171
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:29,240
Speaker 3: is speaking out against.

1172
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:30,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, that would be Steve Bannon. We can put the

1173
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:32,320
Speaker 2: next element up on the screen.

1174
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:33,200
Speaker 4: Who you know?

1175
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 2: I think Republicans I think Emily shared this one thing.

1176
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:37,800
Speaker 2: They were saying, the only silver lining for us is

1177
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:41,240
Speaker 2: are on getting elected. And he's like, Bannon is like, listen,

1178
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 2: not so fast. This guy's got some some things going

1179
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:48,839
Speaker 2: for him. You know, he's compelling, and he and you know,

1180
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 2: he and some of the other politicians who are kind

1181
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:54,880
Speaker 2: of in the same vein, they are not to be

1182
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 2: trifled with, Like, you have to take it seriously, and

1183
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 2: you know this also has some layer of cope in

1184
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:03,520
Speaker 2: it too, but he basically gets down to also, okay,

1185
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 2: Trump's really got a deliver on cost of living, and

1186
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:09,320
Speaker 2: you know, Bannon is one he'll sound the alarm before something.

1187
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:10,759
Speaker 2: He'll say, you know what, you actually in the big

1188
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:13,680
Speaker 2: beautiful bill should raise taxes on the rich, and then.

1189
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 4: It won't happen, and then we'll never hear about it again.

1190
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:17,800
Speaker 2: He'll say, you know what, this whole dalliance with Elon

1191
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 2: and like throwing in with the tech coligarchs maybe not

1192
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:22,840
Speaker 2: the best idea, but then once it happens again, you

1193
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:24,680
Speaker 2: don't hear anything more about it. He warned about the

1194
00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:27,400
Speaker 2: Medicaid cuts, right, He's like, listen, a lot of maga

1195
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:30,360
Speaker 2: is on Medicaid now, same food stamps. A lot of

1196
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 2: maga is on food stamps as well. And you know,

1197
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 2: even though court said you have to pay out, they

1198
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 2: said they're going to do fifty percent. That even that

1199
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:40,840
Speaker 2: is not forthcoming whatsoever. I mean, that's you guys have

1200
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 2: that's a huge number of people who are really going

1201
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 2: to be immediately suffering right now because of those foodstamp cuts.

1202
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, he's he's sounding the alarm. He's not sounding

1203
00:55:52,680 --> 00:55:54,799
Speaker 2: like JD. Van saying, Oh, nothing to see here, was

1204
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:56,759
Speaker 2: just you know blue states. He's saying, no, you know,

1205
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 2: this Sorn guy is something you should be taking seriously,

1206
00:55:59,840 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 2: and you better get to work on the economy or

1207
00:56:01,920 --> 00:56:03,400
Speaker 2: else you're going to be in a very dire sitution.

1208
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:05,120
Speaker 3: Well let's pull over an element which we didn't end

1209
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:08,840
Speaker 3: up using. Per the NBC News exit polls, Mamdannie lost

1210
00:56:08,880 --> 00:56:12,319
Speaker 3: immigration voters by twenty six points, crime by forty one,

1211
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 3: but he won cost of living by thirty six and

1212
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,160
Speaker 3: they represented fifty five percent of the electorate. That's the

1213
00:56:18,200 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 3: whole ballgame. It's all cost of living, one hundred percent period.

1214
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:24,839
Speaker 3: So that's why if you think about twenty twenty four,

1215
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 3: it was an economy election, but it was also an

1216
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:28,839
Speaker 3: immigration election, was also a crime election, and so yeah,

1217
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 3: that's why the Republicans probably fared better in the aggregate.

1218
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 1: But if the entire discussion.

1219
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 3: Is going to come down to cost of living, the

1220
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:36,439
Speaker 3: Democrats is the opposition party.

1221
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:37,600
Speaker 1: They're going to beat your ass.

1222
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:41,320
Speaker 3: Even if they have much less popular positions on trans

1223
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:45,160
Speaker 3: on crime, whatever, immigration, et cetera. This is where, you know,

1224
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 3: I just talked about the school board stuff. How many

1225
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:50,480
Speaker 3: people were even there voting for school board who were like, well,

1226
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:53,359
Speaker 3: what's their position on gender affirming care?

1227
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 1: Nobody?

1228
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 3: They were like, screw the Republicans, screw Trump. So they

1229
00:56:56,920 --> 00:56:58,799
Speaker 3: voted for him. Now, you know, I think that's going

1230
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:00,719
Speaker 3: to reap a lot of action in the.

1231
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 1: Future, but so be it.

1232
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:04,680
Speaker 3: That's the way the politics works here in our country.

1233
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:07,759
Speaker 3: That is the issue right now with the shutdown and

1234
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:10,839
Speaker 3: with the chaos, and the fact is is that yes,

1235
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:14,520
Speaker 3: Snap you know, is being held up by both parties

1236
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,800
Speaker 3: at this time with shutdown. When you run the government,

1237
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 3: you will bear the blame, period especially whenever you're like, no,

1238
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,120
Speaker 3: we're not going to pay it, even though maybe we

1239
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:26,600
Speaker 3: can kind of, you know, if we wanted to, as

1240
00:57:26,640 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 3: the people in the government. That's the issue that you

1241
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:32,400
Speaker 3: have here. Same with you know, Governor Younkin. Recently he

1242
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:36,200
Speaker 3: was asked specifically about Virginia and the elections. He talked

1243
00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 3: about the shutdown. So he's not stupid. Let's go and

1244
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:39,480
Speaker 3: take a listen to him.

1245
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 7: For a lot of Republicans, including Lieutenant Governor, ran on

1246
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:45,120
Speaker 7: the idea of keeping the good times going, referring to

1247
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:48,280
Speaker 7: the successes of your administration. Given the fact that Lieutenant

1248
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 7: Governor wants by fifteen points, Republicans are on track to

1249
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 7: lose more than it does in House seats. Is it

1250
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 7: possible that Virginians don't see your administration the same way

1251
00:57:57,680 --> 00:57:58,800
Speaker 7: that you do. Well.

1252
00:57:58,840 --> 00:58:03,520
Speaker 8: I believe that Virginians thoroughly support what we've been doing.

1253
00:58:03,600 --> 00:58:05,320
Speaker 8: I mean, at the end of the day, when people

1254
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:07,640
Speaker 8: say is the state heading in the right direction, people

1255
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:11,640
Speaker 8: say yes. As I said, I firmly believe that, particularly

1256
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:15,320
Speaker 8: the government shut down was a very, very big challenge

1257
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,919
Speaker 8: as we ran into this election. We have three hundred

1258
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 8: and thirty thousand government workers here that weren't getting paid.

1259
00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 8: That is a real challenge heading into an election. And therefore,

1260
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 8: I again encourage the Senate to please open the government

1261
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 8: because Virginians are hurting and it's time for the government

1262
00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:32,600
Speaker 8: to get back open and then for you all to

1263
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 8: do your work.