WEBVTT - Friday Flight - Paltry Predictions, Working for Wealth, & Black Friday Unfurled #900 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.400 Welcome to Had of Money. I'm Joel and I am Matt. 0:00:03.520 --> 0:00:07.520 Today we're talking about paltry predictions, working for wealth and 0:00:07.640 --> 0:00:28.920 Black Friday unfurled. That's right. 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:30.720 This is our Friday flight where we're going to get 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:33.479 to the most pressing stories that we've come across this 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:36.120 week and how they pertain to your finances. And you're 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:39.960 mentioning Black Friday Angel visions of like the nineties and 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:41.640 the two thousands, whe folks whould line up at the 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:43.720 store like you did back in the day to get 0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:46.000 the flat screen. People don't do that anymore. 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:46.520 No, they don't. 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:48.200 I don't do that, at least I'm glad they don't. 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:50.600 Like I just don't go into stores hardly that often. 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:53.520 But where I do go is Costco. Did you see 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:57.040 that Costco's unveiling the little door scanner thing? 0:00:57.440 --> 0:00:59.640 Or actually I went last week and they had them 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:03.279 set up. You have like scan your Costco ID on 0:01:03.320 --> 0:01:03.680 your way in. 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:07.000 It's so dumb, because I'm sorry, I take it back Costco. 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:10.240 The lady in front of me her car because they 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:13.120 still have somebody there that's like attending to the machine 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:16.039 or whatever. And the lady in front of me her card, 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:19.160 it said that her membership was invalid or something like that, 0:01:19.200 --> 0:01:21.240 and the lady was like, no, it's not. And then 0:01:21.280 --> 0:01:23.120 the other lady was like, oh you can. You've been 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:25.760 coming and you've paid and had no problem registering or 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:28.120 uh checking out. She's like no, say okay, come on in. 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:30.679 They're still figuring out the kings, right, I guess, so 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:32.800 that should be generous there. So I think what Costco's 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:34.520 trying to do here, tell me if you think I'm wrong. 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:36.759 I think what they're trying to get that Netflix bump, 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:40.240 the cracking down on passwords, and Costco's trying to crack 0:01:40.280 --> 0:01:43.760 down on membership sharing. And so they're thinking that they're 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:46.840 going to see a meaningful bump in in people signing. 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:49.080 Up for memberships here because just give somebody else your card. 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:50.800 No, because now it shows up on the screen what 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:53.080 your picture looks like when you That's the whole point. 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:54.920 So they can say I didn't know why they were 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:55.200 doing it. 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:58.240 I'm sorry, sir, this doesn't like you. This is somebody 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:01.120 else's membership. Well that's that's why your Costco card has 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:02.960 your picture on it, right, because you're supposed to show 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:05.960 him anyway. So it's just a bigger picture the door 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:08.400 when you walk to They're not always checking that that closely, 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:10.360 but they will be now with the scanner. So this 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:15.760 is like their technological ability to now say, oh, Matt's 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.160 coming in, that's actually Matt versus Matt's neighbor who he 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:19.320 lent to his membership card. Two. 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:21.520 Oh, I see, yeah, I'm curious to see if that works. 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:25.359 I will say, based on our conversation with Chris Hutchins recently, 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:28.320 can you hold up your your Apple pay your your 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:30.720 phone to be let in as well? Because he was 0:02:30.760 --> 0:02:33.200 talking about how he puts his Costco card on his 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.640 phone on his Apple Pay, which makes sense that you 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:36.480 can do the Apple. 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:38.400 Pay, right. I thought he put it on his the 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:40.440 Costco app. There's a Costco app? Oh is that? What 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:40.880 are you saying? 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:41.840 Nothing, You're saying Apple pay. 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:44.000 No, you can put your Costco credit card on Apple pay, 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:45.560 but you can't put your membership on Apple pany. I 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:46.400 don't think. Oh. 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.640 I was thinking, okay, double click to pay slash double 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:50.840 click to also get in the store. 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:52.160 Yeah, that's what I want to be able to do. 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:55.160 I mean, I don't have to open up a separate app. Well, sorry, 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:59.200 Bud doesn't revolve around me, and my wish is no. Okay. 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:02.799 Well but oh by the way, Calamen was yesterday and 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:06.600 your your thing with your kiddo's is you pay them 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:09.160 to not eat candy, right, uh huh okay. 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:12.560 So that last year was the first year that we've 0:03:12.680 --> 0:03:15.040 ever implemented that and it was crazy successful. 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:18.240 And who ends up eating this candy? Well? I do 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:21.120 like over the we still had you know what I 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:22.800 pay you to? You know what we did earlier this 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:24.800 week we literally threw out all of our. 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:28.200 Old candy because it's just I mean, it's stuff that's 0:03:28.240 --> 0:03:31.000 old and you know, like you've had a Snickers bar 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:33.400 or something that's kind of been old and it sits there, 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.280 it gets all mixed in with the fruit flavors and 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:38.880 then it tastes all messed up. 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:39.080 Man. 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:41.000 I hate that. And so in some of that stuff, 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:43.120 I don't know how old that is. And so the 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:47.560 ability just to completely hit reset. Before the Halloween, the 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:49.880 new Halloween stash came rolling in, but the kids have 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:53.280 not yet fully sorted out all of the candy and 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:56.600 and how much they want to cash in essentially, But. 0:03:56.600 --> 0:03:58.080 Yeah, no, I think it's a good plan and I 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:00.680 think for everyone else, though, who's says, Oh man, my 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:02.360 kids got so much candy. I wish they wouldn't need 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:05.080 all of it. Well, maybe you can incentivize them with money. 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:06.760 From a house standpoint part with someone. I don't want 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:07.760 them eating all that. 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:10.280 Oh yeah, no, it's it can be overload, man. I 0:04:10.280 --> 0:04:12.360 mean I remember the first couple of days after trigger 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:13.640 treating when I was a kid, and it was just 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:14.320 like gorge Fest. 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:16.279 And I swear too, like in years past, this is 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:18.880 always when the sickness gets kicked off. Oh yeah, it's 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:21.880 right after Halloween, and it's it's it's not necessarily that 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:23.760 sugar is so bad for you, it's the fact that 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:26.000 that keeps you from the other healthier things that you 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:26.359 need to be. 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:29.159 You're filling up all your calories on crap. Yeah exactly. 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.560 Well, are y'all going to implement something similar. 0:04:32.320 --> 0:04:34.760 The reason for the holiday? I don't know. I like 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:36.520 what you're doing, and I might. I think I'll at 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:39.640 least give them the option because that they see your 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:41.440 kids giving up a lot of their candy for money, 0:04:41.600 --> 0:04:42.960 and I think they're like, I don't know if I 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:45.080 do the same thing, but I might give them a 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:45.680 least the option. 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:48.360 It's hard initially because their eyes are wide and it's 0:04:48.400 --> 0:04:50.000 you know, it's a ton of fun. But after a 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:52.680 while they start realizing that, actually, maybe I will take. 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:54.840 The buy out. Yeah, ten cents apiece. 0:04:55.160 --> 0:04:57.679 Ten cents apiece, and then for the for the bigger ones, 0:04:58.240 --> 0:05:00.559 a quarter. Okay, So I'm willing to pay out even 0:05:00.560 --> 0:05:02.680 more for the big ones here because some of the neighbors. 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:04.960 You know, you always hear about the nigh Oh, you 0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:07.200 got to go to the neighborhood, because they hand out 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:09.599 the king size. But anything that's like, you know, like 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:11.880 the full size, anything bigger than the fun size, I'm 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:12.760 willing to pay a quarter for. 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:14.720 Makes sense? Yeah, all right it let's get to the 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:17.720 Friday flight, Matt, all the stories we found interesting this week. 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:21.799 Let's kick it off by talking about an investing prediction. 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:25.720 They're the good folks over Colden Sacks. I don't really 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:28.320 know anyone there, never talked to anyone at Golden Sex. Folks. 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:30.040 I can't imagine all of them are good. Some of them. 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:32.960 Maybe you're so generous, I know. Well, they just announced 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:36.320 that future market returns are likely to be muted over 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:39.480 the coming decade, basically saying Hey, we foresee the S 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:43.599 and P five hundred returning like three percent annualized over 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:47.280 the coming ten years, So every single year three percent returns. 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:51.279 That's basically one percent after inflation, which is pretty crummy. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.280 So yeah, not if you hear that and you take 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:56.360 it to heart, you're like, that's not good. I would 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.400 hope my stock portfolio would do better than that. And 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:01.440 it's worse than any other prediction that you or I 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:03.840 have seen out there on the internets, which is interesting. 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:06.520 We talked about kind of predictions regularly on the show 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:10.159 because a lot of other market soothsayers or want to 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:13.919 be sooth sayers, they've been editing their market predictions for 0:06:14.040 --> 0:06:16.240 this year upward, which is always amazing. It's like, well, 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:17.800 I predicted something at the beginning of the year, but 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.120 it's October and the market's been crushing. Can I revise 0:06:20.160 --> 0:06:22.480 that thing now? Right? Right? 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:26.080 So isn't that called cheating? You're not allowed to do that, right. 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:28.480 So, at the beginning of the year, the average market 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:32.080 predictor was saying, I foresee a two percent return, something 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:34.920 very tepid over the coming year, and it's been much 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:37.520 much higher than that. So basically this prediction is saying 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:41.680 to keep your expectations low for longer term market returns, 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:44.120 And I guess it begs the question what should we 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:47.320 do with these sorts of prognostications, And I think you 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:49.600 and I we always come down on the side of 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:53.520 not much. You know, we have seen actually abnormally great 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.360 returns recently. This year has been amazing. Last year was 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:58.280 great in the stock market. But we got to take 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:00.440 the good years with the bad ones. It is. I 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:03.320 think there is certainly a possibility that Golden Sacks could 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:05.120 be spot on with this, where we could see a 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:08.839 decade that returns weren't so great after a decade of 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:12.000 fantastic returns. The truth is, we just don't know. And 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:14.080 it's just also important to note that the stock market, 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:16.560 it's not like it's completely detached from reality. I think 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:19.720 valuations are high, but our economy is doing far better 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:22.200 than other wealthy nations right now, so it's not like 0:07:22.680 --> 0:07:24.720 stock market. Why is it so high? Like we can 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.040 there's at least a method to the madness. There's a 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:28.360 reason for it happening totally. 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:31.240 Yeah, And I will say, historically a return of three 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:34.640 percent or less for the decade that happens less than 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:38.200 ten percent of the time, so that's not very normal. 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:41.239 Could it happen again, yes, But these predictions they should 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:43.840 not influence the actions that you take today if you're 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:46.280 in the wealth building phase of your life. Again, every 0:07:46.320 --> 0:07:48.920 single prediction about what the SMP would do this year 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:52.120 was way off. Predictions were that we'd see something like 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:55.440 a two percent increase in the SMP. But we're somewhere 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:57.640 around twenty percent right now. If you zoom out just 0:07:57.680 --> 0:07:59.560 a little bit more and look at the past twelve months, 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.880 we're at thirty seven percent. Wow, thirty seven Like that's insane. 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:06.920 It's close to like four years worth of growth right there, 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:08.600 which I think just in the past twelve months. 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:10.640 He sat reversion of the mean With that Goldmen Sacks 0:08:10.800 --> 0:08:12.760 is counting on or at least betting on. 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:14.440 I don't know though. I mean, like we are like 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:16.640 you and I were not permables, right like, we don't 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:18.960 think that we're are that we are on this endless 0:08:19.040 --> 0:08:19.800 upward rise. 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:20.840 There are some. 0:08:20.880 --> 0:08:23.840 Signs that US stocks, in particular, that they might be overvalued. 0:08:23.880 --> 0:08:26.320 But trying to shift to savings because you think that 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:29.080 you're going to make more over there over the next 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:31.440 ten years. That sounds like a really bad choice. Yeah, 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:34.880 if you ask me, especially if you have decades to invest, 0:08:35.240 --> 0:08:37.800 keep bellar cost averaging into the market. But I mean 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:41.080 if I was saving for as short to medium term 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:43.320 goal of let's say four to five years, guess what, 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:45.240 I'm still going to stick that market, that money into 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:48.560 the market if it was me personally, But especially if 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:50.840 we're talking about retirement savings, You're gonna be just fine, 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:53.640 stay diversified and continue to invest in the market. 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:55.600 Yeah, that's what we say here. Now, while we're talking 0:08:55.640 --> 0:09:00.480 about investing, there was some interesting data recently that came 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:05.080 out about how different generations have different investing styles, and 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:09.240 we talked about what with Gene Twangy about intergenerational differences 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:10.640 in how we view money. That was kind of a 0:09:10.640 --> 0:09:15.240 fun conversation. But those differences have largely been defined by 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:20.400 cultural markers and by macroeconomic events, specifically the most dramatic ones. 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:24.200 Gen Z for instance, Right, they've seen incredible stock gains 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:26.880 since they started investing, which means they're kind of keen 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:29.160 on investing. Hey, this is a good game to play 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:32.480 because it's helping me build my wealth. That's the good part. 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:35.360 I don't know, maybe It makes me think about millennials too, 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:40.280 in the Great Recession, graduating into a poor economic climate. 0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:43.679 Maybe they're a little more conservative, and so gen Z, 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:45.640 as it turns out, is taking more of a gambling 0:09:45.640 --> 0:09:51.200 mentality into how they invest. Josh Brown actually recently said 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:54.040 that very similar thing when he came on the show. 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:57.880 And essentially they're the robin Hood generation, right, and they 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:00.520 don't mind taking risky bets on s angle stocks and 0:10:00.559 --> 0:10:05.680 crypto coins, NFTs anywhere, remember those things. Nobody talks about 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.680 NFTs anymore, Matt. I think they've largely gone by the wayside, 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:11.320 and a lot of do people care good written crypto 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:13.960 punk or whatever that all that stuff people. 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:16.760 Board apes man like it wasn't that long ago, but 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:17.600 it seems like forever. 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:18.120 It feel like. 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:20.960 On one hand, it's like, oh, we were talking about that, 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:23.480 not all that long ago. I can I still remember 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:25.400 the stories, Yeah, as we talked about it, But it 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:28.200 also seems like a lifetime ago because of how much 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:31.400 has changed when it comes to what folks are allocating 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:32.040 their funds towards. 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:34.840 Literally haven't heard those three letters put together in a 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:37.000 long time. Nobody seems to care, and I'm sure that 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:39.400 those things are worth a whole lot less, if not 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:43.360 completely worthless. But all of us have a bias because 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:45.520 of how we grew up, what we were taught about money, 0:10:45.679 --> 0:10:49.400 what we've experienced, and then kind of what we've experienced 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:54.040 overall culturally and economically. But I think this is just 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:56.560 for us. Matt reading this, it makes me think that 0:10:56.600 --> 0:10:59.679 people just need to look at a longer historical timeline 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:01.880 to be your guide when it comes to how you 0:11:01.920 --> 0:11:04.760 invest one hundred percent, not just hey, what's happened over 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:07.840 the past year, two years, five years. If you're one 0:11:07.840 --> 0:11:10.960 of those people who is risk averse, the truth is 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:13.319 taking no risk comes with its own risks as well, 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:16.520 namely inflation. Taking too much risk, on the other hand, 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:20.960 comes with the potential for big losses. So I guess slow, 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.680 steady risk appropriate. That would be our advice. That's psych 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:25.640 typically our advice on the show. But I see these 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:28.560 different generations kind of taking different tacks, and it's like, 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:32.920 I don't know, maybe more balanced view, balanced response from millennials, 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:35.920 agen Z and Uchen extras and boomers two is what's 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:36.640 called for. 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:38.679 Makes a ton of sense that we need to look 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:42.120 outside of our own personal experiences, even let's go back 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:44.600 even to another generation. Makes me think of the Silent 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:47.040 generation or the Greatest Generation. I don't know which one, 0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:49.160 whatever it is that folks call it, but like the 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.239 hesitancy to invest in the market because of the Great Depression, 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:56.240 sticking money under your mattress as opposed to trusting in 0:11:56.360 --> 0:12:01.000 actual financial institutions. But while we're on this note of investing, 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:03.760 morning Star they recently wrote a piece about trading platforms 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:09.080 that are increasingly incentivizing risk. And we're talking about gamification 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:13.080 here because these game like elements, they can be great 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:16.200 for incentivizing saving, but I think they can lead to 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:19.840 really poor behavior on the investing side, leading to more 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:23.920 frequent trading, leading to speculative bets. And again, let's revisit 0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:27.480 a brokerage that's in the spotlight, Robin Hood. They're now 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.120 allowing folks to bet on the election on their platform. 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:30.880 I hate this. 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:33.040 We did an episode many years ago at this point 0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.400 about how to level up your money game by using gamification, 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.959 but I just hate that it's such a slippery slope. 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:44.680 We're seeing more platforms, is it. Caulshy and Predicta is one, 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:48.600 But there are these new gambling market platforms that are 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.439 It's I don't like it for multiple reasons, obviously the 0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:53.920 fact that folks are losing money, but I think a 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:56.840 lot of individuals see this as their sort of foray 0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:00.280 into in this case politics, Right, it's like, well, I 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:02.600 don't know money where my mouth is. Well, yeah, But 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:04.920 the thing is it's less of a focus on policy, 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:06.559 and it's more of a focus on sort of the 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:10.120 pop cultural elements of it by just like, oh, let 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:11.880 me throw some money on that where the wind's blowing 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:13.920 right now. Yeah, I guess that's the part of it 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.520 that I hate. You're if you are sort of betting 0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:19.760 in this way. I think people have a belief that 0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:23.160 they are sort of being involved with politics, but in essence, 0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:25.440 it's they're not at all. You see what I'm saying. 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.320 Yeah, our attention is being has been hacked by the 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:31.560 social media apps, and now our investing habits have been 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:35.360 hacked in some ways by at least certain companies trying 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.520 to get us to participate more in risk of your behavior. 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:40.960 So you're right, I think gamification can work in a 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:44.360 positive ways. There's some apps out there, thinking of like 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:47.400 Cube Money, Matt, that's one of those kind of budgeting, 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:50.400 banking apps that can help you use the envelope system 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:52.679 in a digital way. That's a great way to gamify 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.040 your finances. And then there are negative ways in which 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:59.240 we're being preyed on in the gamification sphere, such as 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:03.600 gambling on election or trading becoming a more frequent trader. 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:07.400 That is what's scary. So use the good ways, avoid 0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:10.120 the bad ones to the best of your ability. Now, 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:12.840 let's talk about work for a second. At the risk 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:16.600 of sounding reductive, people make more money when they work 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:20.360 longer hours. No way. Yeah, it doesn't sound like rocket science, 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:23.600 does it. But Tyler Collen, who is like one of 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:25.600 my favorite economists, his. 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:27.440 Podcast is a very smart individual. 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:31.080 Yeah, great podcast. He wrote about this in Marginal Revolution. Yes, 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:33.640 his blog what's his name of his actual podcast Conversations 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:35.800 with Tyler Oh, that's right. Yeah, so both are good. 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:38.000 But he wrote about this in Bloomberg and it feels 0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:40.200 like one of those things like does this need to 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.960 be said that if you work more you make more money? Well, 0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:45.120 I don't know. The way he explains that I think 0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:49.120 is helpful. He highlighted this recent study that economists did, 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:52.000 and the study found that a twenty percent variance in 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.560 lifetime earnings can be explained by a difference in the 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:58.760 number of hours that you work. Essentially, if you work 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.120 thirty five hours a week, your friend works forty five 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:04.600 hours a week over time, on average, they are going 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:07.360 to make more and compound their wealth more quickly than 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:09.840 you will. And as Tyler wrote in the piece, matt 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.760 He wrote, the decision to work harder operates on at 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.360 least two levels. First, you put in more total time, 0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:18.960 which leads to higher lifetime earnings. Second, you invest more 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:22.640 in your human capital, which makes you more productive. Again, 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:26.960 this isn't something that's shocking, or wasn't I think understood 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:30.080 by many kind of intuitively. But it's interesting to see 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:34.440 some data attached to this common sense economic reality. And 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:36.360 that doesn't mean that I think everyone should go out 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:38.320 there and works seventy hours a week. Part of the 0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:41.280 reason investing makes so much sense is because it can 0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:44.520 allow you to work less. Right, so letting your money 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:47.600 work harder for you than you're working for yourself. 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:50.000 I feel like, so everyone's or not everyone, but a 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:52.280 lot of folks have heard of like the horseshoe theory. 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:55.360 I feel like this is a perfect illustration because there 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:57.760 are a lot of folks that are like, yeah, no, duh. 0:15:58.000 --> 0:15:59.640 But then you get folks who are educated and they 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:01.680 start doing research and they start picking it apart and 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:04.000 they're like, well, actually, there's all these other factors that 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:06.640 play into it. There's don't forget about policy, don't think 0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:09.520 about the systemic issues that we have when it comes 0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:12.560 to working and earning more. But yeah, in this case, Tyler, 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:15.160 he's like digging into the data even more, and with 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.040 his research and the numbers and the data is able 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:18.600 to point out the fact that like, oh no, in 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.440 this case, our intuition is actually is actually correct. 0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:23.880 Yeah, it makes me I think of Kobe Bryant back 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:25.720 in the day. He would talk about how I think 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:27.840 he used to work out three times a day, and 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:30.760 he's essentially saying, I'm so far ahead of everybody else 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:32.160 because of all the hard work I've put in there. 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:34.120 There's some truth to that. Yeah, even if you start 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.000 working out four times a day, you will never catch 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:37.640 up to me, is what he was saying to like 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:41.440 the younger basketball players. And yeah, hard work isn't everything, 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.200 but it's amazing how how impactful can be on your 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:46.040 wealth building journey. 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:48.560 Yeah, to a certain extent, it's hard to be just 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:50.680 putting the reps in, but there is a limit to 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.680 trading your time for money, especially for lower income earners. 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:56.680 And it's also important to note that hustle culture, like 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:58.280 essentially that's what we're talking about here, it can just 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:01.560 lead to burnout. It's going to be to live that 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.960 that knows to the grindstone lifestyle for too long. And 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.680 despite the fairly clear line that's that you can draw 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.080 between the hours that you're going to work and the 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:13.159 income that you're gonna earn, it's also important to work smart, 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:15.480 not just hard, right, So it's not just about putting 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:18.040 more hours in, but to actually think about like work 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:21.240 on the job, like not working solely within the job, 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:23.600 Like by working on the job, you're saying, how can 0:17:23.640 --> 0:17:26.000 I actually make this thing better? But then also to 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:29.520 prioritize your life, not just your bank account, not just 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:32.440 your net worth. Because I think there might be seasons 0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:35.080 where you do work more to earn more, but there 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:37.240 are also going to be other seasons will work takes 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:39.199 more of a back seat. But more than anything, I 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.240 think the takeaway from me is just to think about 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.720 this from a consistency standpoint, because I think about the 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:45.800 kind of life that I want to lead, and I 0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:48.399 think about someone who might be going one hundred and 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:51.320 ten percent right, and by going one hundred ten percent, 0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:54.159 you're earning like ten percent more and that's nice, but 0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:56.840 you also have like zero margin in your life. Other 0:17:56.920 --> 0:17:59.280 aspects of your life are falling apart, and maybe you 0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.560 end up I can work like twenty five years in 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:05.000 thirty years in right, as opposed to imagine if around 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:07.439 year twenty year, like I don't this is I've been 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:09.560 going pretty hard. What if I dialed it back a 0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:11.440