1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay. 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 2: And then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business App. 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 6 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 7 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,639 Speaker 3: Live remarks in a candid conversation with Jay Powell, the 8 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 3: FED Chair making a bit of news in his prepared 9 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:33,560 Speaker 3: remarks in the Q and A that followed here live 10 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Radio and TV. Still with his eye on 11 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,559 Speaker 3: a two percent inflation target, he does not think inflation 12 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 3: is reversing higher, but also does not expect interest rate 13 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 3: cuts until there's more confidence on inflation, suggesting the Fed 14 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:48,839 Speaker 3: has more time before it. 15 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 4: Needs to make decisions on cuts. 16 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Liones the Wednesday 17 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 3: edition of Balance of Power. Kaylee, interesting, after quite a 18 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 3: bit of Fed speak the last couple of days here 19 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 3: to hear the Fed Chair kind of stretch out for 20 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 3: the better part of an hour and get into this. 21 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, and some of what we heard today was reminiscent 22 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 5: of what we heard from him just on Friday, which 23 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 5: is that this FED, specifically Chairman Powell, is a study 24 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 5: of FED history, if you will, and decades ago when 25 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,119 Speaker 5: they were trying to fight inflation and decided to ease 26 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,039 Speaker 5: back on tighter policy too early, it had ramifications and 27 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 5: he essentially warned of that again in these remarks. He 28 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 5: talked about the idea that reversing rates too soon could 29 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 5: risk a reversal in progress, but loosening policy too late 30 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 5: or too little could impact economic activity and employment. He 31 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 5: went on to say in the Q and A that 32 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 5: there is no risk free path for him and his colleagues. 33 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 3: Well, that's for sure, and interesting to hear him speaking 34 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 3: to the causes of inflation as well, if we're going back, Yeah, 35 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 3: in history. 36 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 4: You were making note in the newsroom about his. 37 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 3: Repeated references to the supply side here, because there's still 38 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 3: an ongoing argument in Washington, though actually some feel like 39 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 3: it's settled at this point as to whether Joe Biden 40 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 3: really stoked inflation and Donald Trump for that or by overspending. 41 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, you hear that a lot, especially from conservative wings 42 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 5: here in Washington, that it was fiscal policy that contributed 43 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 5: to this inflation, trillions of dollars being poured into the 44 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 5: economy in the aftermath of the pandemic. But what we 45 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 5: heard from Chairman Pal today was he said inflation was 46 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 5: not strictly about demand overheating to your point, show, he 47 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 5: said it was about the supply side. He did say 48 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 5: he does think there could be more gains to be 49 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 5: had on the supply side, but he even talked about 50 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 5: it in terms of the labor market. Of course, the 51 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 5: other part of the FEDS dual mandate talking about the 52 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 5: supply and demand and the balance we are seeing right now, 53 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 5: but really putting emphasis on supply, which I thought was 54 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 5: interesting and I'm sure perked up a lot of ears 55 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 5: hearing Watse. 56 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,959 Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, I suspect that Enda was listening as well. 57 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 4: Our own end. 58 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 3: The current Bloomberg Economics reporter is with us now, having 59 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,079 Speaker 3: just been live blogging on the terminal and at Bloomberg 60 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 3: dot Com about thirty seconds ago. It's nice of you 61 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 3: to stop typing for a moment, and thanks for letting 62 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 3: us pull you away. What got your attention? In terms 63 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 3: of newsmaking headlines today from. 64 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:58,519 Speaker 6: J Powell News making nothing so much new. He's saying, look, 65 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 6: we're not totally sold out inflations. Back to where it 66 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 6: should be yet, So he didn't give any hint there 67 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 6: to going to cut rates anytime soon, So that probably 68 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 6: won't change the rate cutting story. But I think as 69 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 6: Kaylee was saying, there was some more expansive chad like. 70 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 6: For example, he made the point that when you look 71 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 6: back now, a lot of the inflation was because there 72 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 6: was such a shortage of everything, right. He couldn't buy 73 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 6: a new carry, couldn't get semic inductorises, he couldn't get workers, 74 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 6: So that was a big part of and he's making 75 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 6: the point of that that's being on one now, so 76 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 6: that's helping things. That does go to the political about 77 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 6: of course, because lots of people say the current administration 78 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 6: spent too much money, right, that's what drove up and 79 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 6: say here every day exactly, so those comments that might 80 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 6: reservice over time. So nothing new I think on where 81 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 6: rates are going for any homeowners listing, but more expansive 82 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 6: thinking about a broader economy. 83 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: Yeah. 84 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 5: I thought it was interesting on the supply side when 85 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 5: he was basically questioned about whether or not the Fed's 86 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 5: monetary policy, their primary tool of using interest rates to 87 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 5: influence the economy, whether it was still working to the 88 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 5: same extent, considering we've seen the growth that we have. 89 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 5: He brought that back to supply as well. He did 90 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 5: say that monetary policy is badly working as expected, but 91 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 5: definitely taking note of the fact that the economy has 92 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 5: proven so resilient even in the face of this tighter policy. 93 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, and one of the points of resilience he made 94 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 6: was population growth or immigration. Now, he was at pains 95 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 6: to say, I'm not here to talk the immigration policy. 96 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 6: He was really kicking that back to the politicians, but 97 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 6: he was saying, the numbers speak for themselves, the extra 98 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 6: workers that have arrived in you. ASID I'm one of those. 99 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 6: I suppose hey out of one of the reasons why 100 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 6: growth is stronger than expected and has offset inflation as well, 101 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,359 Speaker 6: but taking the pressure of wages. So I think his 102 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 6: comments on immigration again does a politic aspect to a 103 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 6: very interesting and an economic viewpoint. 104 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:38,919 Speaker 3: Too, immigration and the job market as a whole. He 105 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 3: doesn't always have an opportunity to speak to the other 106 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 3: mandate outside of a news conference at a FED meeting, 107 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 3: or maybe an opportunity like this on a panel. We 108 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 3: tend not to get into it too much when he's 109 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 3: speaking to lawmakers. 110 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 4: And congressional hearings, for instance. But to hear J. 111 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 3: Powell speak to the enormous social good that a tight 112 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 3: labor market brings the country is kind of a different 113 00:04:58,839 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 3: shade from the cheer. 114 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, these comments, as I was saying, they were a 115 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 6: bit more expansive. Wasn't just talking about PCE readings or 116 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 6: anything like that. And he was making upon how important 117 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 6: this is. And he has in the past hat as well, 118 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 6: how important anchoring inflation expectations is for the general public, 119 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 6: and he said that again today. So his comments are 120 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 6: infused with the public role that they. 121 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 4: See auditioning for this job. Again, this all seems very 122 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 4: Biden friendly. 123 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 6: Well, I don't think he's party political. I mean, I 124 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 6: think he'll be at pains of stress that But he's 125 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 6: just making the point that he believes, I fed it's 126 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 6: this critical role to play in the economic well being 127 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 6: and welfare of the of the public, and he seems 128 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 6: to believe in that. And that's why today we've got 129 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 6: a little bit of a flavor of that. And he 130 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 6: spoke to public service as well, that the the virtues 131 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 6: of public service also. 132 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 5: Well, and we keep hearing from him as we've heard 133 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 5: from the number of FED speakers over the last several 134 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 5: days that they want to be confident about inflation returning 135 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 5: to that two percent mark, and of course inflation expectations 136 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 5: factors into this as well. He said, there's no indication 137 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 5: to your point that inflation expectations are not consistent with 138 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 5: two percent inflation. But are we getting more clarity as 139 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 5: to what exactly the metric for confidence is if it's 140 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 5: a series of readings that are consistently going down, if 141 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 5: it's more a pattern or a trend, or is this 142 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 5: still just kind of a broad idea that the FED 143 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 5: talks about but we don't actually have a real understanding 144 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 5: of what it is they mean. 145 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 6: I think it probably reflects inflation scare we had in 146 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 6: January in particularly, remember those numbers came in a bit 147 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 6: horder and expect and February as well showing plenty of stickiness. 148 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 6: So in truth to feder probably over there saying what 149 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 6: we need to see is a few more months to 150 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 6: confirm that the disinflation story is still intact. And if 151 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 6: we've got a few more months of good inflation reads, 152 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 6: then I think that would light up to Federate cutting debate. 153 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 6: But if that doesn't happen, then we get back. You 154 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 6: heard him talk with the nineteen seventies. He does not 155 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 6: want to repeat that mistake, so we just want to 156 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 6: cut too soon. 157 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 5: Basically, all right, Bloomberg's and the current sprinting all over 158 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 5: the newsroom to cover Chairman Powell in his remarks for us, 159 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 5: Thank you. 160 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can't 161 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern CarPlay and then royd 162 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:03,919 Speaker 1: Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 163 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 164 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 165 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 4: Really interesting here. 166 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 3: We know that Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and they 167 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 3: confirmed it again in Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island, and 168 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 3: Wisconsin that they will be their party's nominees. They also 169 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 3: reminded us of the great weaknesses that they have both 170 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 3: been experiencing on the campaign trail. I'm not just talking 171 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 3: about age here, not talking about Donald Trump's legal problems 172 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 3: necessarily either, although it's interesting how some folks can read this. 173 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 3: Donald Trump got seventy five percent of the vote at 174 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 3: least in all of these states, but guess what. 175 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 4: Someone named Nicky Hayley got at least ten. 176 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 3: Percent of the vote in all four states. Remembering that 177 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 3: phenomenon in Georgia, they said, well, listen, she hadn't dropped 178 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 3: out yet, people were voting early. Well, here's another test. 179 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 3: And for Joe Biden, at least eighty percent of the 180 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 3: vote in each of these states. But the uncommit did 181 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 3: ballot option gobbled up as much as fifteen percent in 182 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 3: some states. In Rhode Island fourteen point nine percent uncommitted. 183 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 3: And I wish we had more time with Jim Ellis, 184 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 3: but I'm glad we've got a couple of minutes with 185 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 3: a voice of experience from the campaign. 186 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 4: Here is the president of Ellis Insight. 187 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 2: Jim. 188 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 4: Great to have you back. 189 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 3: How are you looking at these results now knowing that 190 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 3: Nicki Haley is out of this race? 191 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 7: Joe, thanks so much. 192 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 2: It's good to be back with you. 193 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 7: The you know, really the I think the votes would 194 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 7: have been the same if the Republicans had a uncommitted 195 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 7: choice as well. I think Nicki Haley was the only 196 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 7: option on that ballot. And so both parties, both candidates 197 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 7: have about ten to fifteen percent where they need to 198 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 7: reach out to try to get back and have a united, 199 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 7: fully united base going into the election. So it's not 200 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 7: particularly surprising, and you know, these numbers for both are 201 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 7: actually quite good. The interesting part though, again, I've been 202 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 7: studying the turnout in these primaries all across the nation. 203 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 7: Last night, the three of the states more Democrats voted, 204 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 7: which you would expect from Connecticut, Rhode Island, excuse me, 205 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:13,199 Speaker 7: in New York, but other states. In fact, we've had 206 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 7: thirty two rather where we've had both parties vote, and 207 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 7: in twenty four of the thirty two, we've seen more 208 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:24,719 Speaker 7: Republicans turnout in their primary than Democrats in theirs. And 209 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 7: that shows sort of a lack of enthusiasm for Biden. 210 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 7: And that's why you see his campaign moving further to 211 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 7: the left on his message, because they need to unite 212 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 7: that Democratic party for turnout in November, and sometimes primary 213 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 7: turnout is a precursor to what happens in the general elections. 214 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 7: That's why I pay a lot of attention to it, 215 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 7: and I think it's quite interesting right now. 216 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 3: Well, so there's no Nicki Haley for Joe Biden here. 217 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:59,080 Speaker 3: I don't think Dean Phillips is necessarily creating a protest vote. 218 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 4: Of course, he's left the k campaign as well. 219 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 3: What is this uncommitted movement for Joe Biden, equal to you, 220 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 3: is if there's a ceasefire in Israel, for instance, we'll 221 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 3: be still see numbers like this. 222 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 7: Very hard to say. I think that Israel issue is 223 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 7: the toughest one Biden has to deal with because it 224 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 7: seems like no matter what he does, he can't come 225 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:24,199 Speaker 7: out ahead politically, and so a lot of that uncommitted 226 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 7: vote we're seeing in these primaries surrounds or revolves around 227 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 7: that Palestinian Israel issue. And it's going to be very 228 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 7: interesting to see what happens here in the next few 229 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 7: months because it could be determinative in a lot of 230 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 7: ways for the general election, simply because particularly in states 231 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 7: like Michigan and Minnesota, where you have a large Muslim 232 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 7: population Arab population that are responding negatively towards what Biden 233 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 7: has been doing in Israel. And if that's the case, 234 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 7: particularly in Michigan, that block of votes that voted almost 235 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 7: solely with Bien in twenty twenty, and if it doesn't 236 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 7: come back for him this time, you know Michigan's going 237 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 7: to be close enough or that could make a big difference. 238 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 7: And so this is a very important issue and a 239 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 7: very difficult one for Biden. 240 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 3: Donald Trump is trying to own the term blood bath. 241 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 3: And I wonder your thoughts on this. It's it's not 242 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 3: an equivalent. See, but I remember when Joe Biden took 243 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 3: the term Bidenomics, which was really just kind of a joke, 244 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 3: was something that was written about in the Wall Street Journal, 245 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 3: and he tried to own it. Donald Trump's doing the 246 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 3: same here now. In fact, they've launched a website for 247 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 3: crying out loud called border bloodbath dot com or something. 248 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 3: Remembering that that remark upset a lot of people when 249 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 3: he referred to it with a reference to the auto sector. 250 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 3: We heard again though last evening about how immigrants crossing 251 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 3: the border illegally, migrants are animals. He said, they are 252 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 3: not human beings. And I wonder, as you consider the 253 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 3: challenge that Joe Biden is facing, for instance, with progressives 254 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 3: on Israel, well, Donald Trump face a challenge with this 255 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 3: kind of trail of rhetoric that he's leaving once this 256 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 3: does become a general election vote in November. 257 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 7: Well, once again, I guess it's Donald Trump being Donald Trump, 258 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 7: and I think we're going to see a lot more 259 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 7: of this. A lot of people think if he would 260 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 7: just maybe change his rhetoric a little bit, that he 261 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 7: would do a lot better, but it doesn't look like 262 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 7: he'll ever do that. And obviously he's trying to bring 263 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:29,719 Speaker 7: greater attention with this rhetoric to the problem we've got 264 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 7: at the border, because now everybody sort of saying, oh, 265 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 7: this is a serious problem. You notice some Democrat ads, 266 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 7: particularly in places like Arizona and Nevada. The Senator Jackie 267 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 7: Rosen is just out with a new ad talking about 268 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 7: how she stood up to her party on the border. 269 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 7: I'm not sure when she did that, but that's what 270 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,679 Speaker 7: she's saying, and that she's for more border security. You've 271 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,599 Speaker 7: got Reuben Diego, who will be the Democratic nominee for 272 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 7: the Senate in Arizona, doing the same thing. I think 273 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,959 Speaker 7: the border issued I really think in terms of a 274 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 7: vote driver, it's one thing to be an important issue. 275 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:03,679 Speaker 7: It's another to be a vote driver. But in those 276 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 7: particular states that border Mexico, that issue is going to 277 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,079 Speaker 7: be a driver. And I think we're seeing the campaigns 278 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 7: already starting to respond to that. And that's what Trump's 279 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 7: trying to do with this rhetoric. Whether whether or not 280 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,079 Speaker 7: that's going to engender more votes for him, that remains 281 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 7: to be seen, but that's obviously what he's trying to do. 282 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 3: Well, it's funny you're talking about actual border states. He 283 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 3: was in Michigan making these remarks over the weekend here, 284 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,559 Speaker 3: and that has been a successful strategy for the former president, 285 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 3: right to make every state a border state. 286 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:35,719 Speaker 2: Gym it is, and. 287 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:37,319 Speaker 7: That's what they tried to do in that New York 288 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 7: special election when Santos was acpected, and it really didn't 289 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 7: work because that district voted as it was drawn. It 290 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 7: was drawn as a lean Democratic seat, that's how it voted. 291 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 7: And I think it's one thing to talk about the 292 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 7: border in these border states. I think it's another thing 293 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 7: where people do think it's important, but they don't see 294 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 7: it as much when they're two thousand miles away. And therefore, 295 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 7: I think there's a big question. I think we learned 296 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 7: this on the abortion issue in twenty twenty. It's a 297 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 7: big difference between what people say is an important issue 298 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 7: to them and what is actually a vote driver, what 299 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 7: will actually get you to go out to the vote 300 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 7: to vote on that particular issue. Abortion proved to be 301 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 7: that for the Democrats. The Republicans are trying to make 302 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 7: the border that for them, and I think that probably 303 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 7: does work in those states we were talking about, but 304 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 7: the further you get away from the border, I'm not 305 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 7: sure it does. So we'll find out. But that's what 306 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 7: Trump is trying to do, no doubt about it. 307 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 4: Always a fascinating conversation with Jim Ellis. It's good to 308 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 4: see you, Jim. 309 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 310 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern. 311 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 2: On Apocarplay and then rout out with the Bloomberg Business app. 312 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 313 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:58,239 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 314 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Balance of Power, the 315 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 3: fastest show in politics here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Indeed, 316 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 3: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington alongside Kaylee Lines. Great to 317 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 3: be back together again on this day after the primary. Yes, 318 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 3: we have front runners and presumptive nominees. It's mathematically set here, Kaylee, 319 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 3: but we're still looking at results in some of these 320 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 3: primaries to gauge what's really been a protest vote for 321 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 3: both of them. And when you look at the states Connecticut, 322 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 3: New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin, all of them showed 323 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 3: the Achilles Heel for Trump and Biden. 324 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 5: Yeah for Trump. It showed up in the fact that 325 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 5: there is still a chunk of the Republican primary electric 326 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 5: that is choosing to vote for Nicki Hayley, even though 327 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 5: her campaign ended last month several weeks ago, four to 328 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 5: five weeks at this point. In for Biden, it is 329 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 5: in the uncommitted vote in the case of Connecticut and 330 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 5: Rhode Island, or the uninstructed vote in Wisconsin, as there 331 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 5: was the Listen to Wisconsin movement that was looking for 332 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 5: twenty thousand voters to essentially protest Biden and his policies, 333 00:15:57,280 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 5: given that was his margin of victory over Trump in 334 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 5: that state eight in twenty twenty, and. 335 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 4: They got it done. 336 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 5: Those are the numbers we got. 337 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 3: So Laura Davison is with us right now, fresh from 338 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 3: the campaign trail, and I think a meeting that we 339 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 3: may have pulled her out of for this conversation. Laura, 340 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 3: It's great to see you. Really interesting stuff here. The 341 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 3: numbers speak for themselves. Nicki Haley took at least ten 342 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 3: percent of the vote in all four states in which 343 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 3: there were a Republicans voting last evening. Why don't we 344 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 3: pick through these one by one? It was different, it 345 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 3: seemed in Georgia because she had still been in the 346 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 3: race when early voting began. 347 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 4: What does last night tell us? 348 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 8: So this tells us that there are still, you know, 349 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 8: voters who are dissatisfied. I will point out though, that 350 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 8: she's getting a lot smaller of the share of the 351 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 8: pie than she was and she was still in the race. 352 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 8: She was getting you know, twenty thirty forty percent and 353 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 8: now it's more like ten percent, so that, you know, 354 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 8: it does signal that people are saying, you know, look, 355 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 8: I got to get behind and support the nominee or 356 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 8: just not show up to vote at all, which is 357 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 8: really what you see in these low turnout elections where 358 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 8: you have, you know, it's really sort of the die 359 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 8: hard supporters of the people who always vote because they 360 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 8: don't want to break their streak. And what both campaigns 361 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 8: and a lot of political strategists will say is, look, 362 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 8: when we get to November and it's Trump or Biden 363 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 8: and maybe RFK Junior or some other third party person 364 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 8: on the calendar or on the ballot, people are gonna say, look, 365 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 8: you know your choice between Trump and Biden, and you know, 366 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 8: lodging a protest vote at that point is a much 367 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 8: bigger and more difficult decision for a lot of voters 368 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 8: to make. 369 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's important to make the distinction here between a 370 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 5: primary in which, to Joe's point, you already know that 371 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 5: these are the presumptive nominees. Your vote is not really 372 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 5: making that much of a difference in terms of that. 373 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 5: Maybe it's just a way for you to signal. So 374 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 5: when we look in Wisconsin, for example, the forty eight 375 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 5: thousand voters that voted uninstructed, how is the Biden campaign 376 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 5: likely to look at those voters. Do they see them 377 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 5: as real risk becoming Trump voters or is it more 378 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 5: about trying to convince those voters ultimately to turn out 379 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:46,160 Speaker 5: for him. This particular faction they see as people who 380 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 5: will just not turn out at all. 381 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 8: And this is what we saw in Michigan. A lot 382 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 8: of the organizers there were very vocal saying, look, I 383 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 8: don't think that Trump's going to be any better, you 384 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 8: know in the Israel Kaza situation, But I really just 385 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 8: can't support Biden. So this is really the risk. And 386 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,119 Speaker 8: in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where you know the 387 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 8: margin could be decided by ten thousand votes, three thousand votes, 388 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 8: you know it's going to be very very close. Having 389 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 8: all those people show up will be very important for 390 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 8: both Biden and Trump. 391 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 3: The term bloodbath is becoming one that the Trump campaign 392 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,400 Speaker 3: is now trying to seize on and control after having 393 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 3: had some heard some controversy surrounding his use of that 394 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 3: term in a reference to the auto sector. 395 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 4: If he didn't get elected, it would be a bloodbath. 396 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 4: This is weeks ago. 397 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:31,480 Speaker 3: They have actually got a website up now, bidenbloodbath dot 398 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 3: com with a reference to the border and it shows 399 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 3: the number of violent crimes in which undocumented undocumented immigrants. 400 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 4: Have been accused. 401 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 3: Is this a winning formula for the Trump campaign to 402 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 3: embrace that term. 403 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 8: I think it's too soon to say if it's a 404 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 8: winning formula. But this is a strategy we have really 405 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,120 Speaker 8: started to see Trump use in the past couple weeks. Yesterday, 406 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 8: when he spoke in Michigan on his podium, there was 407 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 8: a sign, you know, saying, you know, Biden's border bloodbath. 408 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 8: He started, you know, using a lot of the same 409 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 8: rhetoric that Biden has been using against him. He's a 410 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 8: you know, a danger to democracy. You know, there won't 411 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 8: be any more elections that this guy is elected. You see, 412 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:07,439 Speaker 8: you could take just the transcript of some of the 413 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 8: things that Trump is saying and be like, who said it? 414 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 8: Trump pro Biden? It'd be a little unclear. So we're 415 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:13,959 Speaker 8: you know, kind of starting to see you know, some 416 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 8: of this of Biden taking you know, the criticism that's 417 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,879 Speaker 8: being lobbed at him, or Trump taking the criticism and 418 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 8: then just turning it right back on as a component. 419 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,679 Speaker 8: And bloodbath is sort of a key example there of 420 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 8: you know something he said, it'll be a blood black 421 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 8: and he said, no, no, not, I'm not causing the 422 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 8: Biden is causing the blood bath. 423 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:28,399 Speaker 2: All right. 424 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 5: Laura Davison, always great to have you join us. She 425 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 5: of course is politics editor here at Bloomberg, joining us 426 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 5: in our Washington, d C. Studio. Thank you so much, 427 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 5: And now we want to have h turn it over 428 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 5: to Charlie Cook. Now he was joining us remotely. He 429 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 5: is the founder of the Cook Political Report, now a 430 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 5: contributor there. Charlie. It's always great to see you here 431 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 5: on Bloomberg TV and hear you on Bloomberg Radio. When 432 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 5: you look at the primary results from yesterday, and let's 433 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 5: maybe focus first on what they mean for the incumbent 434 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 5: President Joe Biden. You look at Wisconsin, even Rhode Island, 435 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 5: in Connecticut, there are thousands of voters who are choosing 436 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 5: on committed uninstructed. How should we think about how those 437 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 5: individuals are likely to vote, how they're likely to behave 438 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 5: come November. 439 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 9: Yeah, I first, thanks for having me on. 440 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 10: I think I would not look too too too closely 441 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 10: at what happened what was going on in the primaries 442 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 10: for a couple of reasons. 443 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 9: Number one, you know, we knew on the Democratic side. 444 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,679 Speaker 10: You know, we've seen from polling, from Bloomberg polling that 445 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 10: you know, there's a substantial percentage of Democrats. I just 446 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 10: think President Biden is too old and should not be running, 447 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 10: and so that they might pick you know, some other 448 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 10: name or whatever or none above or what you know, 449 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 10: that's not a shocker. And I don't think on the 450 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 10: Republican side, I don't think that there is a Hayley 451 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 10: vote in that sense, because if she had gone to 452 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:49,679 Speaker 10: court and had her name changed to none of the 453 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 10: above should probably do better than she did. I mean 454 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,880 Speaker 10: that it is basically that is the option if you're 455 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 10: not for Trump, and that we knew that there, you know, 456 00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 10: there is a constituency out there. But what are the 457 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 10: things that the New York Times did did an analysis 458 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,879 Speaker 10: based on what they're finding is in Georgia and data 459 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 10: files and all this, where they found that the Hailey 460 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 10: voters were pretty much people that had voted for Biden, 461 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 10: you know. 462 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 9: In the last election. So I don't think that there. 463 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:20,199 Speaker 10: Is a a a big group of people wearing Haley 464 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 10: jersey jerseys that are you know, run around in the 465 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:29,479 Speaker 10: political process. It's just more people that aren't for Trump 466 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 10: or people that aren't for Biden. And you know, there's 467 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 10: going to be defections on each side or more likely 468 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 10: where they just simply don't vote. And that's actually you know, 469 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 10: one of the bigger problems for Democrats is with young voters, 470 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 10: with Latinos, with African Americans, is you know, they're worried 471 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,679 Speaker 10: about defections, but they're also worried about a lack of 472 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 10: enthusiasm and turnout. 473 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 3: Hey, Charlie, we were lucky to have you on Super 474 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 3: Tuesday as you sat at the table here reminding us 475 00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 3: that it was not very super that things were workne 476 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 3: that we were looking at an inevitable equation in this 477 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 3: case with two candidates, nobody seemed to really even want. 478 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 3: I wonder now as we enter April and looking at 479 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,119 Speaker 3: you mentioned our pole Bloomberg in Morning consult Our swing 480 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 3: state pole showing Donald Trump winning the majority of them. 481 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 3: Today Wall Street Journal shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in. 482 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 4: Six key states. Is this thing over the general? 483 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 9: That is? 484 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 10: I don't think it's over, but I think it's it's 485 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 10: definitely uphill for President Biden. That you know, I think 486 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 10: it'd be foolish for anybody to say Biden cannot win. 487 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 10: But if you were just totally not the factors that 488 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 10: are arguing for a Biden win politically speaking or electorally speaking, 489 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:49,920 Speaker 10: and for a Trump win, it's it's really really really uphill. 490 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 10: And you you know, and and as you said, people, 491 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 10: they first of all ignore national polls. I mean, they're 492 00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 10: they're good for directional you know, is Smith gainey or 493 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 10: Jones losing. 494 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 9: You know, that sort of thing. 495 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 10: But this election is going to be decided in six 496 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 10: or seven states, depending upon whether you include North Carolina 497 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 10: or not. And the way to look at it is 498 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,360 Speaker 10: to look at the Bloomberg Morning Consult poll, the Wall 499 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:20,040 Speaker 10: Street Journal, Swing State Poll, the New York Times, Siena College, 500 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 10: and then individual single shot polls that CNN, Fox and 501 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,679 Speaker 10: other news organizations are doing. 502 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 9: That that's what's going to tell us. 503 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 10: But this is you know, I think the framework is 504 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 10: going to be this is not going to be a 505 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 10: referendum on Donald Trump. That when you have an incumbent 506 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 10: running for re election, it's basically, do you want to 507 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,919 Speaker 10: renew that incumbent's contract, yes or no? 508 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 9: Stay the course time for a change. 509 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 10: And that's what it was about in twenty twenty when 510 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 10: Trump was president, and that I think that's what it's 511 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 10: going to be here. But as I mentioned, I think 512 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,919 Speaker 10: on Super Tuesday with you that you know, this is 513 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 10: the first presidential election since eighteen nine two that you 514 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,920 Speaker 10: have back to back presidents running against each other. 515 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 9: And what that means is it invites a. 516 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 10: Side by side comparison for that eight to ten percent 517 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 10: of that are pure independence in the middle that aren't 518 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 10: more or less locked in for each side. 519 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,399 Speaker 9: It's going to be who is better off for me? 520 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 10: And those people they vote on not the economy but 521 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 10: their economy, and they don't vote. They wouldn't know the 522 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 10: CPI from NCIS, but they do know the costs of 523 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:33,159 Speaker 10: the living, a thing that's really, really, really there. But 524 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 10: you know, the eight to ten percent in the middle, 525 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 10: they're not a whole lot of Bloomberg watchers and listeners there. 526 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 10: These are people that are a lot less information driven. 527 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 5: I'm going to get that CPI and CIS line printed 528 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 5: on a T shirt, Charlie Cook. But when we talk 529 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 5: about that eight to ten percent, it's about who they 530 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,640 Speaker 5: vote for, yes, but it's also about whether they vote 531 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 5: at all, whether they're going to turn out. And I 532 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,159 Speaker 5: know you said that. You see the this election cycle 533 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 5: is really an uphill climb for Biden, but he is 534 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,919 Speaker 5: winning the resource battle. He is far ahead on fundraising. 535 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 5: He is far more cash to spend. When you have 536 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 5: a cash pile like that that you can use to 537 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,119 Speaker 5: drive turnout, how should we think about how that might 538 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 5: change the dynamics once he starts deploying that in a 539 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 5: more material way. 540 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,920 Speaker 10: First of all, thank you for adding about turnout, because 541 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 10: it is absolutely true that the eight to ten percent 542 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 10: that are the pure independents that they vote, they pay 543 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:36,119 Speaker 10: attention less, they pay attention later, and they end up 544 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 10: voting in lower numbers. So then the ninety ninety one 545 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 10: ninety two percent that are partisans on one side or 546 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 10: the other. 547 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 9: So good point, thank you for thank you for making that. Look. 548 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 10: It's always better to have more money than the other candidate, 549 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 10: and the more you can have, the better. 550 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 9: But in politics, basically there's. 551 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 10: A law of diminishing returns where there's a point where 552 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 10: you have a lot of money, and that the incremental 553 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,919 Speaker 10: value of every additional dollar isn't that great. And the 554 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 10: other thing is the higher the visibility of the office, 555 00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 10: the higher the office, the less important campaign spending is. 556 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,960 Speaker 10: And that on a you know, a state rep race, 557 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 10: a city council race or whatever, you know, lower where 558 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 10: there's not there's less news coverage, campaign spending is a 559 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 10: lot more important there. But in a presidential race, I mean, 560 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:33,240 Speaker 10: let me ask you, what could a TV ad possibly 561 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 10: do or say that would change somebody's mind one way 562 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,639 Speaker 10: or the other about Joe Biden or Donald Trump. You know, 563 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:45,439 Speaker 10: they've already got ten million data points there, and so money, 564 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 10: you know, I'm happy for the Biden people that they're 565 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,919 Speaker 10: going to have more money, and that's always makes you know, 566 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:55,520 Speaker 10: you have to make fewer choices. But in a presidential race, 567 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 10: money is not that that that determined to but it 568 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,359 Speaker 10: sure is better to have it than not. And Trump 569 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,200 Speaker 10: they're gonna have plenty of money. I mean, and you 570 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,920 Speaker 10: have candidate money. You know, no where's the Trump for president. 571 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 10: You've got super Pac money, You've got various other entities 572 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 10: and party things. I mean, there's a lot of money 573 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 10: flushing around this system. 574 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 4: I've only got about a minute here, Charlie Cook. 575 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 3: I have to ask you about rhetoric, as I just 576 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 3: asked you irresponsibly if this race was already over, knowing 577 00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 3: that so much can happen in seven to eight months time. 578 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,400 Speaker 3: We heard again from Donald Trump over the weekend about 579 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 3: not just the bloodbath reference, but migrants. He called them 580 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 3: animals again Democrats, he said, this is a quote. Democrats said, 581 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 3: please don't call them animals. I said, no, they're not humans, 582 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,679 Speaker 3: they're animals unquote. Is this kind of thing moving the 583 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,480 Speaker 3: needle for anybody or does everybody know Donald Trump for 584 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 3: whom he is? To your point, this is a former 585 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:50,879 Speaker 3: president we're talking about. 586 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 9: I think Donald Trump is much more. 587 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 10: I mean, he's got part of the job down pack 588 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,919 Speaker 10: and that is throwing red meat to his base and 589 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 10: keeping them jacked up and there there's just nobody better 590 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,919 Speaker 10: than that making arguments that would appeal to swing voters. Uh, 591 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 10: maybe not so much, but he may be banking on 592 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 10: that group vote turning out in in lower numbers. But 593 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 10: you know, the thing is would take the border. I 594 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 10: think a lot of this is sort of more of 595 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,040 Speaker 10: a coptence thing. I mean, you can't see the video 596 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,119 Speaker 10: of dozens and dozens or hundreds people come over the 597 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:33,399 Speaker 10: border and say, geez, boy, that really is efficiency incompetence 598 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,160 Speaker 10: and they're doing a heck of a job. It undermines 599 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 10: the the sort of effectiveness of the administration. 600 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 3: And well, Charlie, I wish we had more time and 601 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 3: we'll find it next time. Charlie Cook with us on 602 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 3: Balance of Power only on Bloomberg. 603 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 604 00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern. 605 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 2: On Apple car Play and then royd Oro with the Bloomberg. 606 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,479 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 607 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 608 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 5: The news we were following here in Washington today, in 609 00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 5: addition to everything that's happening in financial markets and with 610 00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 5: specific companies, is it is the aftermath of a series 611 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 5: of primaries debatable to the extent to which for their 612 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 5: primaries matter. When Trump and Biden already have mathematically locked 613 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 5: up their respective Republican and Democratic nominations, but still Wisconsin, 614 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 5: Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New York yesterday, those voters made 615 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 5: their voices heard, and there may be some troubling science 616 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 5: for both candidates in the. 617 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 4: Results that we saw. 618 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,680 Speaker 3: And if you're a viewer a listener to this program, 619 00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 3: this will sound familiar to you, the uncommitted vote for 620 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 3: Joe Biden that he has seen certainly through the Midwestern 621 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:46,080 Speaker 3: states with an eye on his Israel policy. For Donald Trump, 622 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,840 Speaker 3: it's been this Nicky Haley vote, kind of a protest 623 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,840 Speaker 3: vote in disguise that is really taking form here a 624 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 3: little bit more because she wasn't on the ballot when 625 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 3: these states started voting. 626 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 4: So we assemble our panel. 627 00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 3: Glad to say Rick Davis is with us Bloomberg po 628 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 3: contributor Republican strategist, joined by Democratic strategist Jim Kessler, of course, 629 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 3: founder at Third Way. It's great to have both of you, 630 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,840 Speaker 3: gentlemen with us and appreciate the time here. I'd like 631 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,280 Speaker 3: to pick through each of these one by one, and 632 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,480 Speaker 3: Jim Kesler, I'll start with you on Joe Biden. When 633 00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 3: you look at the numbers here, obviously we have two 634 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,000 Speaker 3: presumptive nominees and known as questioning who's going to be 635 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:26,800 Speaker 3: going to the convention here, but the uncommitted ballot option 636 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 3: took between eight and fifteen percent away from Joe Biden's 637 00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:31,320 Speaker 3: results in the states where it. 638 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:31,760 Speaker 4: Was an option. 639 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 3: In Rhode Island it was almost fifteen percent. Is this 640 00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 3: something Joe Biden needs to worry about or again a 641 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 3: game in the primary cycle. 642 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 11: I would worry about other things more like, look, if 643 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 11: you look at post Super Tuesday, when really the race 644 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 11: is uncontested, Joe Biden has won eighty nine percent of 645 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 11: post Super Tuesday votes. Donald Trump has one seventy nine 646 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,000 Speaker 11: percent of post Super Tuesday votes. I think they both 647 00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 11: have work to do. I think Donald Trump has more 648 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 11: work to do. Some of the votes that Biden has 649 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 11: lost their freebies. People are like it's a protest vote. 650 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 11: I think if Biden is trying to get those votes 651 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 11: rather than getting votes in the center, and you know, 652 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 11: might be trying to do better on the border, on crime, 653 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 11: on those issues, I think that would be a mistake. 654 00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 11: I think he's got to aim for the center. And 655 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,240 Speaker 11: if he loses some votes on the left because of 656 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,760 Speaker 11: Israel and Hamas, he loses some votes on the left. 657 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 5: Well, But Jim, I wonder if when we're thinking about 658 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 5: the left, we're thinking about more specific demographics than that though, 659 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 5: when we think about this protest vote right, and I 660 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,800 Speaker 5: take your point about how people may view this as 661 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 5: a freebie because it's a primary election not a general one, 662 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 5: but there's also the question of whether those voters are 663 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,080 Speaker 5: still going to turn out for him in the general, 664 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 5: specifically young voters. This is a demographic that was crucial 665 00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 5: to getting Biden elected the first time around in twenty twenty. 666 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 5: And when you look at the breakdown of where these 667 00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,320 Speaker 5: uncommitted or uninstructed votes were showing up, it's college towns. 668 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 5: This is a pattern we have seen repeatedly. How concerned 669 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 5: should he be about young people and making sure that 670 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 5: the young people actually turn out on election day? 671 00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,080 Speaker 11: He should be concerned and you know, he's got a 672 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 11: message to send to college students. He's done things on 673 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 11: student dead He's done a lot of things on the environment, 674 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 11: he's done things on LGBT issues, he's done things on abortion. 675 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 11: If that's not enough for some young voters on the left, 676 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,400 Speaker 11: then that's the way it's going to be. And then 677 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 11: the votes he has to gain are those Nicky Haley voters. 678 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 11: You can't lean too far to the left to try 679 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 11: and get those voters, because you're going to lose votes 680 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 11: from the center. This election is going to be won 681 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:40,000 Speaker 11: or lost in the center. 682 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 3: Rick Davis walk us over to Donald Trump's side of 683 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:45,960 Speaker 3: the race. 684 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 4: Here. 685 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 3: If Nicky Haley is pulling at least ten percent in 686 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 3: all four states we're talking about here, we may have 687 00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 3: set a new baseline that's less than certainly she was 688 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,280 Speaker 3: pulling in the early states. 689 00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 4: Is that a right. 690 00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 3: Off for the Trump campaign? Is it a factor that 691 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:02,240 Speaker 3: he should worry about. 692 00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 4: In Marlago? Excuse me? 693 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 12: Is worried about this primary vote? At this point, most 694 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,680 Speaker 12: voters know if they're going to go to a Republican primary, 695 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,040 Speaker 12: they know the state of the primary. They know that 696 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,840 Speaker 12: Biden or Trump's sort of got it locked up, and 697 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,240 Speaker 12: so they have different motivations for casting a vote against him. 698 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 12: I've never seen a primary vote like this influence at 699 00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 12: general election. In other words, by and large, Republicans come 700 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,240 Speaker 12: back to the Republican fold, Democrats come back to the 701 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,160 Speaker 12: Democrat fold, and then you have the issues of intensity, 702 00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 12: and intensity will matter probably more to Biden than to Trump. 703 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:44,040 Speaker 12: Trump has a very fired up base. His base is strong, 704 00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,960 Speaker 12: it's shown that it has the ability to turn out. 705 00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 12: And his problem are these swing voters, and those aren't 706 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:56,200 Speaker 12: necessarily Hayley voters right now. We haven't seen these voters 707 00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,360 Speaker 12: show up as swing voters in the past. Sure, some 708 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,600 Speaker 12: of them are suburban women, and we see today in 709 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 12: the campaigns really targeting suburban women. And so there is 710 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,640 Speaker 12: an emerging of a general election narrative, which is what 711 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:13,040 Speaker 12: we left off of four years ago, which is highly 712 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,759 Speaker 12: likely suburban women decide how this election is going to 713 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 12: be determined and whether or not Donald Trump convinced suburban 714 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,760 Speaker 12: women that he can protect them. Yeah, and Joe Biden 715 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,880 Speaker 12: can convince suburban women that he can protect their rights. 716 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:29,279 Speaker 5: Well, Rick, we heard that from Donald Trump when he 717 00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,919 Speaker 5: was speaking in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Yesterday he talked about 718 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,160 Speaker 5: how and he called them suburban housewives, how they like 719 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,720 Speaker 5: him because they know he will protect them from things 720 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 5: like crime. That was just one of many things he 721 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,280 Speaker 5: said in those remarks. Joe has alluded to this several 722 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:45,480 Speaker 5: times already this hour, doubling down on the bloodbath phrasing, 723 00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,440 Speaker 5: talking about the blood bath at the border. There's a 724 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 5: whole website now dedicated to Biden's bloodbath. He again referred 725 00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:55,240 Speaker 5: to migrants as animals. Is that going to help him 726 00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 5: with those voters that you were talking about, with those 727 00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,959 Speaker 5: suburban women and other Hayley vote that he might need 728 00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 5: to win over, or is that doubling down only effective 729 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:04,800 Speaker 5: with his base? 730 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 7: Yeah? 731 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:10,000 Speaker 12: This is a classic good versus evil, right, Joe Biden's 732 00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,440 Speaker 12: campaign on the fact that he's actually turned the corner 733 00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,840 Speaker 12: in America is better now than it was under Trump, 734 00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,680 Speaker 12: and Trump is exactly the opposite. Oh my god, America 735 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 12: is in a disastrous place, overrun by criminals. 736 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:24,879 Speaker 4: They've unleashed their you know, mental. 737 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:29,880 Speaker 12: Patience and drug addicts and thieves and murderers into our country. 738 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,879 Speaker 12: No one is safe anywhere and the only I can 739 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,359 Speaker 12: save you in the future. And so these two contrasts, 740 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 12: both on policy and on style are going to play out. 741 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,239 Speaker 12: And I would say it's so early to have this 742 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,280 Speaker 12: hot a rhetoric. I mean, it's like Donald Trump can't 743 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 12: help himself. He continues to pile on with incredibly high 744 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:54,440 Speaker 12: rhetoric like bloodbath and now it was applied initially to 745 00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,440 Speaker 12: the car business, and now it's being applied to your 746 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 12: security at the border. Wait to see what bloodbath happens text. 747 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,560 Speaker 12: I do think you run the risk if you're Trump, 748 00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:09,560 Speaker 12: of overusing these really hot adjective because what's gonna happen 749 00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:11,799 Speaker 12: soon or later is people just become immune to it. Oh, 750 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:15,520 Speaker 12: that's just another Donald Trump bloodbath comment. If it's used 751 00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 12: once in an important speech or at a time very 752 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,960 Speaker 12: important in the campaign, it has an enormous impact, I 753 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,600 Speaker 12: am certain. But if it's used every single day, at 754 00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,800 Speaker 12: every single rally, it just loses its impact. 755 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 4: That's interesting. 756 00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,359 Speaker 3: I wonder if it's already happening, Rick, it's a great point, Jim. 757 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:34,560 Speaker 3: I wonder what Joe Biden does about it as well, 758 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,839 Speaker 3: recalling the way he embraced the term Bidenomics, which was 759 00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:42,080 Speaker 3: critical something that was in a Wall Street Journal column, 760 00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:43,600 Speaker 3: and he kept hearing it enough that he said, Okay, 761 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 3: let's own this thing, and he kind of did. Donald 762 00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,839 Speaker 3: Trump's essentially done the same thing with the bloodbath remark here, 763 00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:53,160 Speaker 3: except to Kaylee's point, the RNC website they bought the 764 00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:59,200 Speaker 3: url Biden bloodbath dot com. What does the president or 765 00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:00,399 Speaker 3: his campaign do with it? 766 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,280 Speaker 11: Well, I guess it's not about the auto industry anymore. 767 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:10,440 Speaker 11: I think it is imperative on Let's put aside the 768 00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,239 Speaker 11: words bloodbath, okay, because Democrats are going to run to 769 00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 11: the outrage all the time, and I don't think that 770 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:19,600 Speaker 11: works either. Democrats and Joe Biden think they have an 771 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 11: as in the whole with suburban women, in particular on abortion. 772 00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:25,439 Speaker 9: And they do. 773 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 11: But they can't turn the immigration and crime issue and 774 00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:35,120 Speaker 11: change the subject to abortion. They have to win back 775 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,799 Speaker 11: some of those voters who disapprove of Biden on the 776 00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,040 Speaker 11: border and on crime issues. And they do have a 777 00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 11: story to tell the bipartisan border deal that Trump killed 778 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,080 Speaker 11: because it would have helped Joe Biden and you know, 779 00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:51,840 Speaker 11: would have helped the country. They have to tell that 780 00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,399 Speaker 11: story and not change the subject. Because if you can 781 00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:59,400 Speaker 11: draw closer on the border and on the crime issue, 782 00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,280 Speaker 11: and that gap with Trump. 783 00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:03,000 Speaker 9: He will win this election. 784 00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:05,920 Speaker 11: But you can't just change the subject to abortion. 785 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,920 Speaker 5: Well, Rick, if we're talking about the issues that resonate 786 00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,720 Speaker 5: with voters, sure we have seen repeatedly in the midterms 787 00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,240 Speaker 5: and twenty twenty in special elections since then that abortion 788 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,120 Speaker 5: does have the ability to galvanize voters, to drive turnout, 789 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,879 Speaker 5: and overwhelmingly those rights have been protected every time they've 790 00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,319 Speaker 5: come up on the ballot. But it's not ranking as 791 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,239 Speaker 5: highly in terms of especially swing state voters and what 792 00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:31,960 Speaker 5: they're prioritizing. It's the border and the economy. How do 793 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,400 Speaker 5: you think these different arguments are ultimately going going to 794 00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:36,040 Speaker 5: measure up. 795 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,800 Speaker 12: Yeah, I think that anybody who ignores the economy is 796 00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,399 Speaker 12: the number one issue is missing the reports that we're 797 00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 12: seeing in all the swing states. It's still the economy 798 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,359 Speaker 12: that's what's really pinching people who are swing voters. That's 799 00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,640 Speaker 12: what people are going to make their initial decisions on 800 00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,000 Speaker 12: as to where to sit on this ballot, whether it's 801 00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:57,279 Speaker 12: Biden or Trump or some third party. And so I 802 00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,919 Speaker 12: think that all this rhetoric around, you know, these other 803 00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,480 Speaker 12: issues is playing around on the edges of American politics. 804 00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:10,080 Speaker 12: That being said, just Recently this week, a ballot initiative 805 00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:14,680 Speaker 12: in Arizona on abortion to change the state constitution was 806 00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,760 Speaker 12: collected enough signatures to make it on the ballot. Those 807 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:21,240 Speaker 12: kinds of things do have a tendency to drive turnout 808 00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,759 Speaker 12: amongst certain groups. So if there is a less intense 809 00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,840 Speaker 12: feeling around abortion issues, but you have a ballot initiative 810 00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,600 Speaker 12: where people are spending money, time and effort campaigning on 811 00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:33,680 Speaker 12: it and it's going to be on the ballot, that 812 00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,440 Speaker 12: could change the dynamics in the state where you know, 813 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,919 Speaker 12: Joe Biden only won by ten thousand votes last time. 814 00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 12: So I think you've got to look underneath the hood 815 00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:45,040 Speaker 12: and see beyond the economy, what else is driving turnout 816 00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:45,840 Speaker 12: at the state level. 817 00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:47,759 Speaker 13: All right? 818 00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:52,080 Speaker 5: Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributor in Jim Kessler, Democratic strategist, 819 00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:53,880 Speaker 5: joining us from Third Way. Thank you both. 820 00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power pot Catch 821 00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,280 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern. 822 00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:04,920 Speaker 2: Can Evo car Play and then Proud Otto with the 823 00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:06,200 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app. 824 00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,439 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 825 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,000 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 826 00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,279 Speaker 5: Joe as we run through the various issues that are 827 00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:17,200 Speaker 5: weighing on the minds of voters. This brings us back 828 00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,600 Speaker 5: to the uninstructed, uncommitted question that we know showed up 829 00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,640 Speaker 5: in Democratic primary voters yesterday especially, and that is Israel 830 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,240 Speaker 5: and Gaza and the Biden administration's handling of this, especially 831 00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:30,600 Speaker 5: in light of the development in recent days the deaths 832 00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:35,440 Speaker 5: of seven humanitarian aid workers from World Central Kitchen. This morning, 833 00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:37,839 Speaker 5: jose Andres, of course, the founder of the famed chef 834 00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:41,799 Speaker 5: who founded World Central Kitchen, wrote an op ed in 835 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,640 Speaker 5: The New York Times. It's entitled let People Eat, and 836 00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,880 Speaker 5: in part it breeds in the worst conditions after the 837 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,480 Speaker 5: worst terrorist attack and its history, it's time for the 838 00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,719 Speaker 5: best of Israel to show up. You cannot save the 839 00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:55,160 Speaker 5: hostages by bombing every building in Gaza. You cannot win 840 00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,960 Speaker 5: this war by starving an entire population. And it's on 841 00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,080 Speaker 5: this note we go now to John the Panacoff, director 842 00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:05,280 Speaker 5: at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. Jonathan, 843 00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,600 Speaker 5: it's always great to have you here on Bloomberg Television 844 00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:09,839 Speaker 5: and radio, even though we do have to deal with 845 00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:13,000 Speaker 5: some pretty heavy stuff. We're talking about even more deaths 846 00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:16,319 Speaker 5: of humanitarian aid workers Obviously, there have already been many 847 00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,120 Speaker 5: There's been deaths of tens of thousands of innocent civilians 848 00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:21,480 Speaker 5: as well, and there is a growing outcry. It feels 849 00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,160 Speaker 5: almost as if this is something of a turning point 850 00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:28,040 Speaker 5: in terms of international outrage potentially at Israel and its 851 00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:30,800 Speaker 5: conduct during this war. Are we about to see something 852 00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:31,640 Speaker 5: really change here? 853 00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,400 Speaker 13: Thanks for having me, Always great to be with you. Look, 854 00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:37,760 Speaker 13: this hits home in a way I think just previous 855 00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,840 Speaker 13: incidents didn't, frankly to the dismay of many in the 856 00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:44,799 Speaker 13: Middle East and especially in Gaza. The reality is Jose 857 00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,799 Speaker 13: Andres is a beloved figure in the Washington community. He's 858 00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,759 Speaker 13: incredibly closed to the White House. But you had an 859 00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,880 Speaker 13: American killed, you had a British national killed in addition 860 00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:58,000 Speaker 13: to Palestinians killed, and so I think it's just really 861 00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:01,400 Speaker 13: the culmination of a lot of frustrating The Biden administration 862 00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:05,000 Speaker 13: has been on about this for months now, and you 863 00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:08,400 Speaker 13: had last month, you know, the stampede, you had multiple 864 00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:12,080 Speaker 13: Palestinians killed. There's a real question why up until now 865 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,680 Speaker 13: hasn't there been a plan that's been effective and been 866 00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:18,560 Speaker 13: implemented for humanitarian a distribution. The fact that we're six 867 00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,799 Speaker 13: months in and still not there. I think rightly is 868 00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:25,000 Speaker 13: really a nerving folks in Washington to a degree that 869 00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:26,279 Speaker 13: we haven't seen previously. 870 00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:29,680 Speaker 4: Indeed, Washington loves Jose Andres. 871 00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,040 Speaker 3: I can remember when it was the DC Central Kitchen 872 00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:36,759 Speaker 3: before he went worldwide. And Joe Biden, most of the 873 00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,680 Speaker 3: lawmakers we're going to be talking with about this over 874 00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:44,759 Speaker 3: the coming days have met him. They've probably volunteered at 875 00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,560 Speaker 3: the Central Kitchen here in town. I wonder to the 876 00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,480 Speaker 3: extent knowing that he's been in touch with Joe Biden, 877 00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:54,799 Speaker 3: this is going to influence President Biden's conversation tomorrow with 878 00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,640 Speaker 3: Benjamin Nett and Yahoo Oxios is now reporting that they 879 00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:02,360 Speaker 3: will speak. What does Joe Biden tell Net Yahoo tomorrow 880 00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:03,560 Speaker 3: when they get on the line. 881 00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,240 Speaker 13: I think the message is going to be pretty strong 882 00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:11,080 Speaker 13: and pretty clear. Frankly, the Israelis not only have to 883 00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:14,920 Speaker 13: allow in more humanitarian aid, they have to massively increase 884 00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,960 Speaker 13: the opportunities for it to get in. So it's not 885 00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:20,040 Speaker 13: just the seaport that the US is building that's going 886 00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,000 Speaker 13: to take a few months. It means actually opening up 887 00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,480 Speaker 13: maybe every crossing Israel has, and for the Israelis to 888 00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:30,640 Speaker 13: coordinate in a way they haven't previously. Israel said they've 889 00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:34,680 Speaker 13: got a new joint Operations Center to coordinate with humanitarian 890 00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:38,640 Speaker 13: organizations providing AID. I think that's going to be critical 891 00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:41,720 Speaker 13: and should be helpful in ensuring such a tragedy doesn't 892 00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:45,600 Speaker 13: happen again. But it's very, very late, and it's way 893 00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:47,960 Speaker 13: past time that it should have happened, and I expect 894 00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,759 Speaker 13: the President to frankly say that to Netan Yahoo. I 895 00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,959 Speaker 13: think the President's patience is running out. Whether that means 896 00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,000 Speaker 13: that there will be actually a call that if nat 897 00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,680 Speaker 13: Nyahu doesn't do this, there'll be some conditions imposed, I 898 00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,279 Speaker 13: think that's a little unknown and what we're all going 899 00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:03,040 Speaker 13: to be looking for. 900 00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,400 Speaker 5: Well, I want to expand on that point, Jonathan, because 901 00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:09,840 Speaker 5: of course, at the same time, the same day we 902 00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:13,600 Speaker 5: got news of these seven AID workers being killed in 903 00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,160 Speaker 5: several Israeli strikes in succession, we got news that the 904 00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:19,920 Speaker 5: US is pushing ahead with eighteen billion dollars in arm sales, 905 00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:24,120 Speaker 5: including fighter jets, for Israel. So if there's no actual 906 00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:26,920 Speaker 5: stoppage of the lethal aid, that in part is empowering 907 00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:30,040 Speaker 5: Israel to conduct these kind of operations that are having 908 00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:34,000 Speaker 5: a catastrophic toll on what you could maybe classify as 909 00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:37,640 Speaker 5: collateral damage. Then what leverage does Biden even have really 910 00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:39,640 Speaker 5: in these conversations. 911 00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:43,239 Speaker 13: It's a real challenge. A lot of folks, rightfully, just 912 00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,399 Speaker 13: as you're bringing up, have talked about the US needing 913 00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,520 Speaker 13: to use its leverage. The problem is the US leverage 914 00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,520 Speaker 13: when it comes to Israel is big ticket items that 915 00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:55,840 Speaker 13: have fundamentally underpanned the US Israel relationship for years now. 916 00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,920 Speaker 13: So it is major defense hardware like the F fifteen 917 00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:04,200 Speaker 13: that we're talking about being sold, major bombs, intelligent sharing. 918 00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:07,200 Speaker 14: The odds that you want to stop any of that 919 00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,080 Speaker 14: is probably pretty low. The problem is if you don't 920 00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,680 Speaker 14: do that, or something like you're in Security Council not 921 00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,120 Speaker 14: vetoing resolutions. 922 00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,799 Speaker 13: Then there's not a lot of low hanging fruit. We've 923 00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,759 Speaker 13: seen the Bite administration try to have sanctions put on 924 00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:26,080 Speaker 13: folks in the West Bank settlers. You certainly could see 925 00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:29,440 Speaker 13: more of that, But it's a real policy dilemma because 926 00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:32,680 Speaker 13: it's not going zero to twenty five. If you condition 927 00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:36,160 Speaker 13: the sale of arms with Israel it's going zero to sixty, 928 00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:40,160 Speaker 13: you'd be fundamentally changing the relationship. So yes, you can 929 00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:42,880 Speaker 13: do it, but it's going to create a completely different 930 00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,480 Speaker 13: dynamic that we haven't seen for a lot of years, 931 00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:47,880 Speaker 13: and US policy makers would have to make sure that 932 00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,560 Speaker 13: they're ready for that as well. And I'm not sure 933 00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:53,440 Speaker 13: either Israel or the US would be ready for that 934 00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:54,400 Speaker 13: what that would entail. 935 00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:57,879 Speaker 3: Jonathan, we haven't been hearing a lot about hostages lately, 936 00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:01,640 Speaker 3: certainly not American hostages, but I can tell you that 937 00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:04,759 Speaker 3: we now know, in the wake of the killing, the 938 00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:09,640 Speaker 3: accidental killing albeit of these workers at World Central Kitchen, 939 00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:14,840 Speaker 3: more than two hundred humanitarian aid workers have died since 940 00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:19,840 Speaker 3: October seven, including nearly two dozen Americans. If two dozen 941 00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:22,359 Speaker 3: Americans died in any other country, that would be a 942 00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:26,239 Speaker 3: front page story. How come progressive Democrats aren't making more 943 00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,360 Speaker 3: of them. 944 00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,279 Speaker 13: I think it's an extull point, and my guess is 945 00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:33,279 Speaker 13: you're about to hear them raise those same figures and 946 00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:37,120 Speaker 13: stats as well. The reality is the number of aid 947 00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:39,640 Speaker 13: workers have died ties directly to the problem that the 948 00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:43,640 Speaker 13: Bite administration is having on the fundamental lack of Israeli 949 00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:49,200 Speaker 13: strategy to get humanitarian support and humanitarian need into Gaza. 950 00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:52,440 Speaker 13: It's going to be a political challenge as well. We 951 00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:55,319 Speaker 13: already know that it's going to add to it. I 952 00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,920 Speaker 13: think that the question is for a long time on 953 00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:00,719 Speaker 13: we saw this with you on Security Council resolution is 954 00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:06,560 Speaker 13: always been wanting to tie the hostages fundamentally to the 955 00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:09,839 Speaker 13: question of whether or not there is even a temporary ceasefire, 956 00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,840 Speaker 13: and there is anger about whether the last UN resolution 957 00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:14,839 Speaker 13: didn't do that sufficiently. 958 00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:16,680 Speaker 9: But the truth of. 959 00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:20,720 Speaker 13: The matter is there's a call for a humanitarian aid because, 960 00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:22,799 Speaker 13: as jose Andre said in his up ed, this is 961 00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:26,680 Speaker 13: just about fundamentally people eating, whether the hostage or alive, 962 00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:29,399 Speaker 13: whether there's a ceasefire, there's still a need for a 963 00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,560 Speaker 13: famine not to massively break out. That would actually undermine 964 00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:36,880 Speaker 13: Israel's ability to prosecute it's work even more. And so 965 00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:39,239 Speaker 13: I think there's going to have to be, frankly, a 966 00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:42,320 Speaker 13: change in direction, and hopefully President Biden will be able 967 00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,279 Speaker 13: to get that message across and it will actually be 968 00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:47,359 Speaker 13: taken on in a meaningful way by Israeli counterparts. 969 00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:50,040 Speaker 4: Jonathan, thank you. It's good to have you back. 970 00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,799 Speaker 3: Jonathan Panacoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative 971 00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,040 Speaker 3: at the Atlantic councilor with us today. 972 00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:01,520 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 973 00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:05,279 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 974 00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,960 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 975 00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:11,240 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 976 00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:12,920 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com