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Speaker 1: Good morning. It's Tuesday, the twenty fifth of July in London.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Here podcast. I'm Stephen Carroll.

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Speaker 1: Coming up today, a big rally in Chinese shares on

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Speaker 1: hopes of more stimulus coming to the rescue of the

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Speaker 1: world's second largest economy. UBS starts picking up the legal

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Speaker 1: tab for credit, Swiss agreeing to pay almost three hundred

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Speaker 1: and ninety million dollars in fines to cover mis conduct

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Speaker 1: by its collapsed Swiss rival, and new figures show that

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Speaker 1: London's highest earners have received the biggest pay rises since

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Speaker 1: the start of the pandemic. Let's start with a round

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Speaker 1: up of our top stories. Chinese shares have surged after

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Speaker 1: signals from the country's pollup bureau that more economic stimulus

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Speaker 1: is on the way. While the Communist Party's top decision

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Speaker 1: making body fell short of announcing large scale measures, it

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Speaker 1: indicated more support was coming for the troubled real estate sector,

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Speaker 1: alongside pledges to boost consumption resolve local government debt. But

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Speaker 1: ANZ senior rate strategist Jennifer Cossuma says any moves may

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Speaker 1: not fix the structural weakness in China's economy.

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Speaker 2: Policymakers have been engaging more closely with the businesses with

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Speaker 2: a private sector including as well for in businesses, to

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Speaker 2: allay their concerns. These are all steps in the right

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Speaker 2: direction in our view and could support a sentiment in

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Speaker 2: the very near term. Now. Having said that, our my

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Speaker 2: colleagues in the China economics theme do still believe that

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Speaker 2: the measures announced so far would not be able to

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Speaker 2: turn around an economic slowdown that is structural in nature.

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Speaker 1: That's Anz Street, senior rate strategist Jennifer Consumer speaking to

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg earlier, and we'll be getting more on this story

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Speaker 1: from Bloomberg's wreckage on Wilkins in Hong Kong in just

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Speaker 1: a moment now. The UBS will pay three hundred and

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Speaker 1: eighty seven million dollars in US and UK fines for

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Speaker 1: credit sueezes. Past conduct regulators agreed that sum as penalties

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Speaker 1: for the collapsed banks handling of the Arkigar scandal. The

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Speaker 1: eighty seven million pound fine from Britain's Prudential Regulation Authority

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Speaker 1: is the largest ever of this type from the watchdog.

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Speaker 1: These finds wrap up one of the many legal and

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Speaker 1: regular tree issues that UBS is aiming to resolve after

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Speaker 1: completing the purchase of its former rival. Economists now, I

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Speaker 1: think the US has a substantial chance of avoiding a

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Speaker 1: recession nearly three quarters of chief economists surveyed by the

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Speaker 1: National Association for Business Economics, but the risk of a

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Speaker 1: downturn at fifty percent or less. Bloomberg's Kathleen Hayes says

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Speaker 1: it's a stark change from April.

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Speaker 2: They're looking at the.

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Speaker 3: Fact there's a strong labor market and also inflation's coming down.

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Speaker 3: That's the kind of thing that makes businesses do better,

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Speaker 3: feel better. They're seeing improved profit margins, so all of

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Speaker 3: this is making them feel like, well, the economy may

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Speaker 3: not be roaring, the FED maybe raising rates, but we're

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Speaker 3: definitely looking at an economy that has a better footing

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Speaker 3: now and in fact looks maybe like the survey is

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Speaker 3: suggesting that economists don't see recession now as inevitable as

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Speaker 3: they once did.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Coatherin Hayes speaking there. The survey is part of

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Speaker 1: a wider trend as forecasters upgrades their outlook for the

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Speaker 1: US economy. Now London's highest earners reaping the biggest pay

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Speaker 1: increase since the start of the pandemic, Bloomberg's un Parts

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Speaker 1: has more.

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Speaker 4: Analysis of wages shows a widening gap between the UK's

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Speaker 4: richest and poorest for the first time in the UK

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Speaker 4: in two decades. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies,

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Speaker 4: average earnings for workers in London increased by five percent

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Speaker 4: a month before tax since early twenty twenty. That's almost

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Speaker 4: double the two point seven percent across the country. The

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Speaker 4: highest pay rises went to those working in business services,

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Speaker 4: including finance, accounting and law, all sectors which are concentrated

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Speaker 4: in London, but even in the capital the highest earners

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Speaker 4: did the best. The data goes some way to explaining

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Speaker 4: why Britain is suffering the worst series of strikes since

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Speaker 4: the nineteen eighties. The workers in sectors that have fallen

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Speaker 4: behind demanding higher pay in London. I'm une parts been

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Speaker 4: both Day Break Europe.

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Speaker 1: They're staying in the UK. The government says it was

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Speaker 1: for social media platforms like Google to stop scam and

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Speaker 1: harmful advertisements, including fake celebrity endorsements. The online platforms will

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Speaker 1: also be forced to take tougher action to stop children

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Speaker 1: seeing age restricted adverts for products like alcohol or gambling.

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Speaker 1: The government's Department for Culture, Media and Sports says the

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Speaker 1: new laws will work alongside the much anticipated online safety bill,

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Speaker 1: and scientists are warning that Greece's wildfires are fire from

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Speaker 1: an anomaly and threaten Europe's two trillion dollar tourism industry. The

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Speaker 1: new record temperatures have forced the evacuation of thousands of

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Speaker 1: holiday goers from islands including Corfu and Rhads. David King

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Speaker 1: as chairman of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group and fears

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Speaker 1: the intense heat in southern Europe will become the new normal.

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Speaker 5: We're getting used to dealing with these high temperatures and

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Speaker 5: it means that the number of people dying from each

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Speaker 5: press is reduced. But nevertheless the message is that year

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Speaker 5: on year this is now getting worse and worse.

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Speaker 1: That was David King, the Chairman of the Climate Crisis

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Speaker 1: Advisory Groups. So those are some of our top stories

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Speaker 1: on the program this morning. Can't help but follow the

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Speaker 1: latest developments though around the rebrand of as X. We

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Speaker 1: talked about the new logo being unveiled yesterday being rolled

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Speaker 1: out across the website. Already interesting though about what financial

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Speaker 1: impact this has had on Twitter as well, brand experts

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Speaker 1: saying that it's wiped out anywhere between four and twenty

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Speaker 1: billion dollars of value. Our colleagues have been writing about

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Speaker 1: the financial hit this might have meant for Twitter, which,

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Speaker 1: of course Musk bought for forty four billion dollars in

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Speaker 1: October of last year. Steve Susie one of the brand

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Speaker 1: directors quoted in this piece. He's from Siegel and Gale,

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Speaker 1: and he said it took fifteen plus years to earn

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Speaker 1: that much equity worldwide, so losing Twitter as a brand

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Speaker 1: name is a significant financial hit for the company. Our

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Speaker 1: colleague from Bloomberg Opinion, Dave Lee's also been writing about

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Speaker 1: Twitter's X transformation, pointing out that it's the recognized icon

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Speaker 1: for make it Go Away, An X, he says, just

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Speaker 1: sums up the achievements of Elon Musk's social network so far.

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Speaker 1: He just gribes the communication from chief executive Linda Yakarino

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Speaker 1: as being bewildering corporate speak, explaining that this vision of

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Speaker 1: the app offering audio, video, messaging, banking and well everything

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Speaker 1: will be the future state of unlimited interactivity, and this

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Speaker 1: is of course part of the bid crime create a

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Speaker 1: sort of version of China's we Chat really under the

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Speaker 1: X name, and that's the hope for what Elon Musk

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Speaker 1: is trying to do with this rebranding. So that's the

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Speaker 1: latest on what we've been hearing from Twitter. Let's turn

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Speaker 1: back though to the story coming from China today. In

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Speaker 1: this big market rally, we've seen on the back of

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Speaker 1: Beijing signaling more support for the struggling economy, including help

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Speaker 1: for the troubled property sector. Let's get the details from

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Speaker 1: our Asia Government correspondent, Rebeca Chung Wilkins that joins us

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Speaker 1: from Hong Kong. Rebecca, great to have you with us.

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Speaker 1: This all came in a statement from China's polup Burea.

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Speaker 1: What exactly did it say?

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Speaker 6: Well, two sort of significant signals here. The first is

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Speaker 6: around confidence. Seems to be a recognition of how weak

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Speaker 6: confidences in China and in their words, a design to

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Speaker 6: have a quote unquote counter cyclical policy here. So that's significant.

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Speaker 6: And also this mention of tackling local debt, both issues

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Speaker 6: that have really plagued sentiment in China. The second signal

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Speaker 6: here is on property and it's and it's really significant too.

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Speaker 6: I mean even last quarter we had this mantra Suedinping's

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Speaker 6: Mancha that property is for specula is sorry for living

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Speaker 6: in and not for speculation. Now, that phrase, which was

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Speaker 6: the banner under which a lot of the property strict

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Speaker 6: propacy debt policies were released under, was actually absent from

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Speaker 6: this quarter's Bureau statement. And there does look like there

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Speaker 6: are going to be, as they call them, these adjustments

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Speaker 6: to property policy to try and boost that sector.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and very interesting to see when we get the

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Speaker 1: detail on that as well. The statement came yesterday, but

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Speaker 1: the market's very much celebrating this today. Take us through

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Speaker 1: some of what we've seen on markets in Hong Kong

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Speaker 1: where you are this morning.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we have seen quite a pickup, and I think

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Speaker 6: the it's really two elements. The first is that some

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Speaker 6: of this wording has come in a little bit stronger

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Speaker 6: than expected, and there is this confidence, or at least

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Speaker 6: this thought that trying to may now be reaching a corner,

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Speaker 6: turning a corner when it comes to these regulatory shifts.

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Speaker 6: So a shift in mindset here, because these crackdowns that

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Speaker 6: we've seen on the property sector, on the private sectors

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Speaker 6: have really really hampered growth, particularly among entrepreneurs, which and

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Speaker 6: we know this sort of getting the private sector going

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Speaker 6: is really critical to get the coming back on its

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Speaker 6: sea legs, but there wasn't a lot of conviction that

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Speaker 6: policymakers had really left that thinking behind. So there's first

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Speaker 6: this shifting sentiment that you know, we might be moving

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Speaker 6: into a different phase. The second is there is a

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Speaker 6: little bit of a technical element here too, because the

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Speaker 6: property sector had really become a focus of shorting, and

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Speaker 6: so we see some short covering, some unwinding of those

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Speaker 6: positions to do today also sort of helping bump that up.

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Speaker 6: But it's property and tech firms, these two private sector

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Speaker 6: industries that are seeing the bulk of gains today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and of course interesting to see how long these

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Speaker 1: rallies might last as well. So what we had from

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Speaker 1: pollut Bureau, as you say, statements around intent of action,

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Speaker 1: when should we expect to see action to follow that up?

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean this would be sort of the argument

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Speaker 6: that the bears in Chinese equities are still maintaining today,

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Speaker 6: which this is a movie that they've seen before. Early

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Speaker 6: this year in March, we had announcements from Leohr without

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Speaker 6: much follow up. So there is that worry, of course

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Speaker 6: among some that we won't but we have already started

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Speaker 6: to see a little bit of this policy making, particularly

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Speaker 6: around property, for example, allowing looser restrictions about buying a

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Speaker 6: second home or a third property in certain cities, and

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Speaker 6: also trying to boost their access to the debt markets,

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Speaker 6: essentially allowing property property companies to be able to finance

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Speaker 6: access financing again, which is going to be critical for

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Speaker 6: the survivors who have been left to left in this space.

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Speaker 6: So we already see some of that policy making trickling in.

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Speaker 6: The question I think remains is whether this sort of

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Speaker 6: drip drip drip of implementation will be enough to hold

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Speaker 6: those gains.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's certainly one that we will be continuing

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Speaker 1: to watch, but for now. Rebecca Chung Wilkins, our Asia

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Speaker 1: Government correspondent in Hong Kong, thank you very much. Up next,

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Speaker 1: the AI will see you now and are your career

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Speaker 1: prospects waited against you.

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Speaker 5: Now?

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Speaker 1: The paper review on blue Bird Daybreak Europe.

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Speaker 4: The news you need to know from today's papers.

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Speaker 1: I'm bloombergs Leyan Garins is with us in studio with

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Speaker 1: the details of those stories and more. We're going to

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Speaker 1: start in the Financial Times this morning, Leanne and the

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Speaker 1: headline memo to Sadiq Can Here's how to redesign you

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Speaker 1: lays the aultolo emission zone.

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Speaker 7: Yes exactly. Stephen and Tim Lunig, the writer, he is

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Speaker 7: the director of Public First Consultancy and a senior visiting

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Speaker 7: fellow at the London School of Economics, has written this

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Speaker 7: piece in the Financial Times. It's an interesting take in

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Speaker 7: the ft from a former civil servant on how the

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Speaker 7: London mayor could redesign u LEDs so it tackles air

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Speaker 7: pollution but it doesn't anger commuters. Now, this has all

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Speaker 7: become a really hot talking point, and that is, of

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Speaker 7: course since the policy cost Labor's last week their by

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Speaker 7: election in Uxbridge, because that is what the Conservatives heavily

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Speaker 7: campaigned on and it showed that people are against this policy.

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Speaker 7: But Tim Lunig says Sadiq's can't extension of the Ultra

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Speaker 7: low emission zone in London is poorly designed and poorly timed.

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Speaker 7: But he does argue that well designed road pricing is

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Speaker 7: critical to improving air quality going forward and it's something

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Speaker 7: we really need in the Capitol. Now, he says there's

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Speaker 7: a sensible policy which would let people keep their current vehicles,

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Speaker 7: be stricter on replacement cars without hitting the poorest people.

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Speaker 7: But also be stricter on taxis and also on mini cabs.

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Speaker 7: He says to eliminate anger, people must be allowed to

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Speaker 7: keep their existing carl van and exempt them from outer

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Speaker 7: London uless charges. Now, he says this will blunt air

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Speaker 7: quality in the short term, but basically it will help

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Speaker 7: everyone in the long term switch to a lower ultra

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Speaker 7: emission zone. But do it gradually, so not all in

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Speaker 7: one big hit. And he says, because we're facing the

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Speaker 7: cost of living crisis, it's a really difficult moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting point of view, and that opinion piece in

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Speaker 1: the Phenaunt of Times. We actually spoke on the Rumberg

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Speaker 1: UK Politics podcast yesterday to a respiratory doctor based in

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Speaker 1: London about this and her argument was entally is that

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Speaker 1: we can't wait because air quality is causing so many

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Speaker 1: health problems that she sees in her patients. And that's

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Speaker 1: a kind of a different point of view on that

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Speaker 1: subject as well. Let's go to the Telegraph next. Leanne

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Speaker 1: chat GPT founder plots to scan every retmin in the

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Speaker 1: world in exchange for cryptocurrencies.

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Speaker 7: This story, I'm telling you something, it's pretty it's pretty unreal.

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Speaker 7: So Sam Altman has unveiled a plan to scan the

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Speaker 7: iris of every person in the world to help recognize

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Speaker 7: real people from sophisticated machines. I always thought I was

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Speaker 7: a very sophisticated machine. But the founder of OpenAI, the

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Speaker 7: company behind chat GPT, which we've been talking about for ages,

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Speaker 7: actually launched his project. It's called world Coin, and he

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Speaker 7: did that in the UK yesterday and basically the venture

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Speaker 7: Stephen just says what it does on the tin. It

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Speaker 7: aims to scan billions of eyeballs using this football size

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Speaker 7: orb that will look into your eyeball and prove if

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Speaker 7: you are a person or if you are AI, which

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Speaker 7: I think is quite interesting, and it will generate a

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Speaker 7: unique digital record that will basically be your world ID,

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Speaker 7: so you will be able to look and Altman argues

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Speaker 7: it will allow people to prove online that they are

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Speaker 7: not robots, they are not fraudsters, they real people. But

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Speaker 7: privacy advocates flagging concerns around the potential risk of a

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Speaker 7: startup gathering massive amounts of sensitive biometric data, which is

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Speaker 7: quite interesting, as Sam Altman does say, I get this

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Speaker 7: machine will give some people the it because you know

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Speaker 7: your eyes are quite a sensitive part of your life.

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Speaker 1: Well indeed, and I mean, the question of I suppose

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Speaker 1: there being any sort of global catalog is a certainly

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Speaker 1: very conservative concerning one. But you're right, yes, I'm altman.

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Speaker 1: Turn the flatter your eyes open your phone now, well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: in your face.

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Speaker 7: And you're fair your face maybe anyway.

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Speaker 1: Right, let's go to the Wall Street Journal next. This

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Speaker 1: is a really interesting story, the hidden career cast of

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Speaker 1: being overweight.

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Speaker 4: Tell us more.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, this story is actually one that we haven't discussed

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Speaker 7: much when it comes to discrimination in the workplace, but

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Speaker 7: it is something that the New York City and some

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Speaker 7: states in America are moving to outlaw weight discrimination at work,

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Speaker 7: and some companies are really beginning to focus on the

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Speaker 7: experience of overweight workers. So they've started looking to what

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Speaker 7: they have discovered, you know, discovered, and how their careers

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Speaker 7: have been held back. And there's a really really moving

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Speaker 7: personal account from a lady called Michelle Matthews, and she

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Speaker 7: said her weight has impacted her career. She's been told

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Speaker 7: in order to move forward and win a promotion, she

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Speaker 7: needs to show up physically, and study after study shows

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Speaker 7: heavier people are paid and promoted less than thinner colleagues

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Speaker 7: and are often stereotyped as lazy or undisciplined.

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