1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: This is Dana Perkins, and you're listening to Switched on 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: the B and EF podcast. On today's bonus episode, which 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: is actually our final one in our twenty twenty four 4 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,320 Speaker 1: Things to Watch series, we speak with Kathy Gao about 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: what we should be watching in the hydrogen space in 6 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: the year ahead. We start by discussing off take agreements 7 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: and the potential for shipping and aviation to step up 8 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: as customers and sources of demand. We also look at 9 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: methods of hydrogen production across different regions and whether nuclear 10 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 1: or pink hydrogen may become a more viable option in 11 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: the air ahead, and we assess the global policies that 12 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: could help drive hydrogen production in twenty twenty four, in 13 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: particular in the US, where the long awaited guidance on 14 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 1: the IRA has now been released. To access this research 15 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 1: note titled Hydrogen ten Things to Watch for twenty twenty four, 16 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: B and EF subscribers can find it at BNF dot 17 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 1: com and at BNF go on the Bloomberg terminal. If 18 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: you like this podcast, make sure to subscribe, and if 19 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 1: you want to share with others, well, you can send 20 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: it to them, or you can give us a review 21 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 1: on Apple podcasts or Spotify. But right now, let's speak 22 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 1: with Kathy about the year ahead for hydrogen. Kathy, thank 23 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: you very much for joining today to talk to us 24 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: about the year ahead for hydrogen. 25 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:25,839 Speaker 2: Thanks Dana, happy to be here. 26 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 1: So as we think about the year ahead, you know, really, 27 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 1: when I think about hydrogen, I think about it as 28 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 1: this solution that's going to be used more in the 29 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: longer term, both from the standpoint when we think about 30 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: how the economics are likely to work out and get 31 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 1: a bit cheaper over time, and when we look at 32 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,400 Speaker 1: some of the learning rates for the technology. So we're 33 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: really talking about hydrogen in what I consider to be 34 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: a really unique space for us to talk about it, 35 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: which is very time delimited. Right, We're going to talk 36 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: a little bit about the year behind us and then 37 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: about the year ahead and resist the temptation to look 38 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: too far into the future. So with that in mind, 39 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 1: let's talk a little bit about this hydrogen predictions. We 40 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: did them last year. We do tend to give ourselves 41 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 1: a bit of a scorecard. How well did you do 42 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 1: versus well what you thought would happen in twenty twenty three. 43 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we did pretty well on overall the 44 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 2: kind of judgment of the industry. What I'm actually really 45 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 2: want to hide light is actually the one that we 46 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 2: got wrong is around sort of the project financing kickstarting 47 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 2: in the US, which obviously didn't happen last year because 48 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 2: of the delays of the US I a guideline on 49 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 2: the hydrogen text credit. So I think just by drawing 50 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 2: this one examples, this actually highlights the policy and recutory 51 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: complexity and uncertainty the whole industry's facing right now. So 52 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 2: this is actually one thing that we're closely watching for 53 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four as well to see whether there could 54 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 2: be any policies coming out to actually lift the sector 55 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 2: and give positivity to the sectors into twenty twenty four. 56 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: So that actually was one of your predictions for the 57 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: year ahead, and the US had finally released this long 58 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 1: awaited guidance on the what is it the forty five 59 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 1: V tax credit from the IRA. Can you talk a 60 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: little bit about what the prediction is for that for 61 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. 62 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, So obviously the delays in the IRA guide like 63 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 2: coming out has actually slowed down a lot of projects 64 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 2: eating FID in twenty twenty three in the US. So 65 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 2: just to give you an idea of the landscape of 66 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 2: the project being proposed. In the US, there's a total 67 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 2: of around one point six millimetric town of clean hydrogen 68 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 2: projects proposed by twenty thirty and of that amount, only 69 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 2: twenty percent has found an off ticker and even you know, 70 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 2: less than one percent has reached FID by the end 71 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 2: of last year. So it tells sort of the challenge 72 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 2: the whole industry is facing right now. There's not much 73 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 2: demand and much less keating the financial milestone. So the 74 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 2: IRA guide like coming out actually right before Christmas last year, 75 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 2: was actually very good news for the whole industries. So 76 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 2: the US actually offers one of the most generous subsidy 77 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 2: for clean hydrogen production, as high as three dollar packge 78 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 2: of hydrogen. The highest subsidy actually lies for hydrogen with 79 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 2: very low emission standard of less than point forty five 80 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 2: kg of CO two, so those hydrogen could get the 81 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 2: highest level of subsidies. So the IRA actually comes out 82 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 2: much trigger than most have hoped. So it requires project 83 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 2: to meet a few criterias to be able to qualify 84 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 2: for the subsidies, one of them being the hydrogen having 85 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 2: to couple with new build or additional renewable resources, so 86 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 2: it cannot draw power from existing power such as nuclear. 87 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 2: The second one is that there should be hourly matching 88 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 2: between hydrogen production and the renewable generation. So this is 89 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 2: also really hard to hit because a lot of the 90 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 2: renewable generation are intermittent and electualizer are actually not ready 91 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 2: to take those intermittent power. So in order to match 92 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 2: the renewable generation and hydro production, you need the technology 93 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 2: to be ready. We also probably need a portfolio of 94 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 2: renewable to support electualizers. You probably need solar and wind 95 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 2: and battery storage on signed to support electualizer production, which 96 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 2: will obviously raise the cost of clean hydrogen production. So 97 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 2: a lot of people are actually quite worried about a 98 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 2: Republican presidency and whether that would revoke the IRA subsidy 99 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 2: for US. We don't think that would be the case 100 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 2: because the IRA subsidy on hydrogen actually has by parties 101 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 2: and support, and then we think even with a Republicans presidency, 102 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,160 Speaker 2: the subsidy would actually survive. 103 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: So there's a lot happening with IRA implementation, which is 104 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: a federal policy. But now let's actually talk a little 105 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 1: bit more about the US and states are individual states 106 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: getting in this game and thinking about hydrogen. 107 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 2: There's actually a lot of states that are interested in 108 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 2: supporting hydrogen. So as we've seen some states actually when 109 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 2: I had to launch their own demand site incentive in 110 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, which could actually trigger more states to 111 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:52,040 Speaker 2: follow this suit. For example, Colorado has introduced a subsidy 112 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 2: of up to one dollar perkg for the users of 113 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 2: clean hydrogen in mid twenty twenty three. Illinois has introduced 114 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,039 Speaker 2: similar subsidies of one dollar package credit as well, but 115 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 2: it's more strict so it's only limited to hard to 116 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 2: abate sector users. Pennsylvania has also released a text credit 117 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 2: of around point eight dollars package of clean hydrogen purchased 118 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 2: from the regional Clean Hydrogen HOB which recently got the 119 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:18,599 Speaker 2: founding from the federal government. So we expect more stays 120 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 2: actually to launch more subsidies because currently only on the 121 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 2: federal level, although the government has announced a one point 122 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:29,559 Speaker 2: six billion incentive package for supporting the demand of clean 123 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: hydrogen in twenty twenty three, there was very little detail 124 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 2: of how the government is actually going to implement that, 125 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: so we'll still need to wait and see, you know, 126 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 2: how the federal government will do this, but with the 127 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 2: lack of certainties on how the federal government will implement that, 128 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 2: we think there will be more states actually going ahead 129 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 2: and launching their own subsidies to incentivize more demand on 130 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 2: the local level, especially the states which got the regional 131 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 2: Hydrogen hob funding for the production side. 132 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 1: So we'll come to some of the conversation around technologies 133 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: and application, but I think it would be great for 134 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,039 Speaker 1: us to actually continue to talk about this in terms 135 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: of what's happening in different parts of the world. So 136 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: can we next go to Asia as a continent, And 137 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: I know this is going to vary widely by country 138 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: by country, we zero in on, say Japan and Korea. 139 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: This was an area of the world that were early 140 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: proponents of hydrogen and actually looked at applications when it 141 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: came to cars and fuel cells since that was a 142 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: part of their early strategy. Do you see a bit 143 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: of a pivot to some of the other applications that 144 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 1: parts of the world have looked at, And what is 145 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: happening in Asia and how is their year head look 146 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: for hydrogen. 147 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 2: APEC is pretty interesting because, as you said, every country 148 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 2: has slightly different approach and on the policy wise, is 149 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 2: actually less sophisticated than the US and Europe in terms 150 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 2: of hydrogen policies. It's interesting to see how these countries 151 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 2: will actually push forward the hydrogen subsidies So far, if 152 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 2: you compare the subsidy level from APAC to the US, 153 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 2: and Europe is actually lagging behind for a lot. The 154 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 2: only trees that have implemented subsidy for hydrogens are India 155 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 2: and Australia, but they're tiny compared to the US are 156 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 2: A subsidies. The upcoming one that we're actually pretty excited 157 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 2: for is the potential subsidies in Japan. So Japan has 158 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 2: introduced a contract for different mechanisms similar to the one 159 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 2: that EU is implementing for clean molecule supply, including clean hydrogen, 160 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 2: so that would benefit both domestic supplier and overseas suppliers. 161 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 2: This will basically subsidize the cost difference between the cost 162 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 2: of importing clean hydrogen and the cost of producing or 163 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 2: using great HydroD domestically or fossil fuel. This is actually 164 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 2: quite a lot of money that the Japanese government is 165 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 2: putting into this mechanism, but it solely depends on whether 166 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 2: the government could actually raise that much money because this 167 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 2: pool of money is actually going to come from the 168 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 2: transition bonds that the government will be issuing. So depending 169 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:52,439 Speaker 2: on whether there will be anybody buying transition bonds, it 170 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 2: would actually determine how much money will be available for 171 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:59,479 Speaker 2: this pool of CFD subsidies. And then the other countries 172 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 2: that we are pretty optimistic about on hydrogen import is 173 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 2: South Korea. So similar to Japan, South Korea is actually 174 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 2: also thinking to import clean hydrogen or clean ammonia, mostly 175 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 2: for domestic power generation and a bit of transport. South 176 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 2: Korea is interesting because it's actually one of the few 177 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 2: countries in the world that implemented a usage manday, so 178 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 2: it's basically a mandate for the power sector for the 179 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 2: utilities to use a portion of clean hydrogen or clean 180 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 2: ammonia derived power from now to twenty thirty. So by 181 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 2: twenty thirty, the goal is for South Korea to consume 182 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 2: at least eight hundred thousand towns of clean hydrogen or 183 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 2: equivalent for power generations, so that it's quite a lot 184 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 2: of demand that they actually mandated for domestic utilities. South 185 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 2: Korea is a big steel manufacturing hub. They also have 186 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 2: plans to use hydrogen in the industrial particularly steel manufacturings. 187 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 2: So overall for Asia, we think South Korea and Japan 188 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 2: are the two markets that we're most excited about for 189 00:09:57,400 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. 190 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 1: And you would reference that in your This has been 191 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 1: a part of the world that has historically had favorable 192 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: policies on the books for hydrogen. And without going into 193 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: individual countries, let's talk a little bit about the European 194 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: Union and the year ahead and whether or not you 195 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: see more of those policies coming down the pipe. 196 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,079 Speaker 2: Europe is really interesting because it's actually something that all 197 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 2: the other countries are looking after as kind of a 198 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 2: model in terms of hydrogen policies. And in Europe there's 199 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 2: actually quite a lot of policies, mandates, and subsidies that 200 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 2: they implemented to support hydrogen. But one thing that we 201 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 2: actually looking out for for twenty twenty four is the 202 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 2: clean hydrogen definition because right now in Europe they actually 203 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 2: hasn't really clarified any regulations around sort of the production 204 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 2: of clean hydrogen and blue hydrogen in particularly as well 205 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 2: as pink hydrogen. So a lot of people kind of 206 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 2: planning those kind of projects in Europe are worried that 207 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 2: those project might not get any support in you at 208 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 2: the end, So in twenty twenty four, we actually would 209 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 2: expect you to publish clear definition on how the emission 210 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:05,079 Speaker 2: from producing low carbon hydrogen should be measured. So, for example, 211 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 2: right now EU has adopted a emission criteria of three 212 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 2: point three akg of COE to equivalent per kg of 213 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 2: hydrogen as the benchmark or criteria of low carbon hydrogen. 214 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 2: But EU hasn't really clarified like how those emissions should 215 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 2: be measured, whether leakage would be accounted. So those are 216 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 2: the things that the industry is actually looking out for 217 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four for the EU to actually clarify 218 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 2: the emission accounting methodology for clean hydrogen. And then another 219 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 2: thing on EU is that in addition to the EU level, 220 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 2: which already have run the first round of hydrogen auction 221 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 2: in late twenty twenty three and it is expected to 222 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 2: run another round of auction in twenty twenty four, a 223 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 2: lot of people are actually looking out for sort of 224 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:50,439 Speaker 2: the member country level subsidies. For example, like Germany is 225 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,559 Speaker 2: expected to launch its carbon contract with different schemes. Friends 226 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 2: is also running its own hydrogen auctions. So in addition 227 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 2: to the EU level a lot of people are looking 228 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 2: at for the member country level subsidies and auctions in 229 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. 230 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 1: So the hydrogen color wheel is something that people talk 231 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: about a lot. It's all of these different colors that 232 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 1: stand for the different technologies that we use to make 233 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,200 Speaker 1: the non naturally occur during hydrogen. So be it blue 234 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 1: or pink or green, it all stands for something. But 235 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 1: really what I want to know about is in the 236 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: year head, which technologies are really going to come out 237 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: on top. So is it going to be the application 238 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 1: of CCS, which is largely coupled with colon gas. Is 239 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: it going to be green hydrogen produced from renewables, or 240 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 1: are we going to see a resurgence in the use 241 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: of nuclear which is referred to often as pink hydrogen. 242 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: What does it look like and what does that mix 243 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: look like from a technology standpoint in the year ahead. 244 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, So for CCS, it's interesting because EU right now, 245 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 2: you know, it's actually have a preference on green hydrogen 246 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 2: over blue because it wants to get rid of fossil 247 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 2: few use, so blue hydrogen is not particularly popular in EU. 248 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 2: The blue hydrogen actually only concentrated in a few countries 249 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 2: that actually have support on carbon capture. For example, the 250 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 2: US have the forty five Q subsidies on the carbon 251 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 2: capture and utilization and storage as well, so a lot 252 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 2: of those blue hydrogen projects are concentrated in the US 253 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 2: the UK as well. UK. Actually blue hydrogen would we 254 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 2: expect it would be the biggest source of clean hydrogen 255 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 2: by twenty thirty in year really depends on, as I 256 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 2: mentioned earlier, how the emission accounting methodology will comes down to. 257 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:31,079 Speaker 2: For example, the emission accounting for clean hydrogen will account 258 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,839 Speaker 2: for the upstream meat and leakage and all the other 259 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 2: upstream emission associated with blue hydrogen that would make blue 260 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 2: hydrogen really difficult to meet the emission criteria under the 261 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,839 Speaker 2: EU Centard. And then in terms of pink hydrogen, it's 262 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 2: interesting because there's not a lot of countries in the 263 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 2: world that have the nuclear required to produce pink hydrogen. 264 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 2: So the few countries that have that could produce pink 265 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 2: hydrogen include the US friends for example in Europe and 266 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 2: in China, and South Korea is actually pretty cue with 267 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 2: the new presidency to explore pink hydrogen as well in Asia. 268 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 2: So those are only you know a few countries that 269 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 2: could produce clean hydrogen using nuclear and then in the EU, 270 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 2: it really depends whether again sort of the new emission 271 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:17,320 Speaker 2: accounting methodologies that is counted in the US with the 272 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 2: IRA guideline, it actually required, as I mentioned earlier, additional 273 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 2: new build renewal boat to be coupled with the clean 274 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 2: hydrogen for it to qualify for the subsidies, which would 275 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 2: make it really difficult for pink hydrogen, which would most 276 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 2: likely use existing instead of no built nuclear as a 277 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 2: power source, would make it really difficult for it to 278 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 2: get them IRA subsidies. So you know, it really depends 279 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 2: on the policy regulation and emission accounting methodology under those 280 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 2: different countries whether this source of hydrogen will be qualified 281 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 2: for any subsidies going forward. 282 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: So next I want to talk about two of our 283 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: favorite hard to evate areas, shipping and aviation. We've spent 284 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 1: a lot of time thinking about the solutions for these 285 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 1: in the future, and one of them is hydrogen. Are 286 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 1: we seeing off take agreements that indicate that twenty twenty 287 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 1: four could be a really big year for application for 288 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 1: these two hard to abate sectors. 289 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, so we're actually pretty optimistic about this two sector 290 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 2: lifting the demand for hydrogen in the year ahead. This 291 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 2: two sector are under pretty tight regulation in the EU 292 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 2: for de carbonization. For example, that Refuel EU Aviation initiative 293 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 2: which mandated one point two percent of the fuel supply 294 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 2: to aircraft at the EU airport must be synthetic by 295 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 2: twenty thirty, so that would our estimate result in at 296 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 2: list zero point thirty five million tounds of green hydrogen 297 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 2: demand by twenty thirty. There's also the few EU maritime initiatives. 298 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 2: Similar to the aviation one, it mandates a shipping sector 299 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 2: to de carbonise following a fixed emission intensity target from 300 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 2: now to twenty fifty. So this carbon intensity target will 301 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 2: require the shipping companies to redeal fuel emission by two 302 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 2: percent by twenty twenty five, which would rise dramatically to 303 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 2: eighty percent by twenty fifty. And then in addition to 304 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 2: the few EU maritime initiative, we also have the EUETS, 305 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 2: which included the shipping sector into the ETS scheme last year, 306 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 2: so the shipping sector would have to pay carbon price 307 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 2: starting from this year and then full carbon price starting 308 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 2: from twenty twenty six. A lot of shipping companies are 309 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 2: actually under a lot of pressure to decarbonise, they are 310 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 2: looking for green fields globally trying to be compliant, so 311 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 2: that would actually drive a lot of demand as we 312 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 2: are already seen from the shipping and aviation sector. Just 313 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 2: to give you a couple of examples. For example, in 314 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 2: the aviation sector, Airfrance and Kelm and Delta signed eight 315 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 2: seven year sustainable aviation fuel off tack with a US 316 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 2: based synthetic fueld producer d G Fuels to make aviation 317 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 2: fuel using hydrogen. Merz, which is one of the biggest 318 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 2: European shipping company, also signed a binding off taic contract 319 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 2: with the Chinese developer Goldwin for a five hundred thousand 320 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 2: towns of methinode off take which will be using around 321 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 2: one hundred thousand towns of green hydrogen for those methino productions. 322 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 2: So this is actually one of the largest green methinoe 323 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 2: off take that we've seen so far, and this give 324 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 2: a lot of hopes to the whole industry, especially to 325 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 2: the countries with very cheap renewables and abundant biomass resources 326 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 2: such as China and potentially South America as well as 327 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 2: the Nordic country to actually step up to produce green 328 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 2: fields for the shipping sectors. 329 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 1: And on some of these ships are electrilyizers for other 330 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 1: parts of the world to make hydrogen. As we ship 331 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: the required equipment around the world, and we've got some 332 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: predictions for volumes of elect shipments in the airhead, what 333 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 1: are those. 334 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 2: For the shipment of electrializer, which is, you know, a 335 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 2: key component or equipment to produce green hydrogen. From twenty 336 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 2: twenty three to twenty twenty two, we saw shipment of 337 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 2: electrizer double going ahead in twenty twenty four. We expect 338 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 2: the shipment to continue to grow in twenty twenty four. 339 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,880 Speaker 2: In our conservative scenario, the shipment in twenty twenty three 340 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 2: would be around one point seven gigawatt, and then we'd 341 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,399 Speaker 2: expect that to double in twenty nwenty four to reach 342 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 2: around three point six gigawatt. But in terms of like 343 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 2: the exact amount whether in twenty twenty four would actually 344 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 2: achieve that double, it really depends on a lot of 345 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 2: different factors. We think there's a lot of certainties around 346 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 2: the exact shipment in the year had because there are 347 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 2: a couple of factors that could affect it, for example, 348 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 2: policies and also macroeconomic environments. And also sort of the 349 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,159 Speaker 2: technical issue is a big one. The issue that the 350 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 2: technology like electrialized has been around for over fifty years 351 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 2: as a technology to be used in multiple sectors to 352 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:43,400 Speaker 2: produce hydrogen on site, but those are mostly small scales. 353 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 2: In order to deploy those technology in a megawat scale, 354 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 2: you need to have technology improvement. And then we're actually, 355 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:54,200 Speaker 2: we don't think the industry now is ready for this yet. 356 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 2: We've heard a lot of manufacturer having technical issues, so 357 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 2: we think this is something that industry have to fix 358 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 2: for the technology to be deployed in a larger scale. 359 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:07,400 Speaker 2: So one of the key technical issues is the compatibility 360 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 2: with renewable power because in the past, electualizer is used 361 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 2: to getting stable power input from the greed, but now 362 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 2: if we want to couple that with renewable electricity, the 363 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 2: power input will be intermittent and that's something that the 364 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 2: manufacturer has to figure out. 365 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 1: And now let's talk about interest rates, which are raising 366 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: costs for power projects all over the world, and when 367 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: it comes to hydrogen, do we think we're going to 368 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 1: end up seeing the impact of these higher interest rates 369 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,399 Speaker 1: in auctions? And the reason that I asked this is 370 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: so often we're looking for cost declines in hydrogen projects, 371 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:41,679 Speaker 1: So will this be a year where essentially the costs 372 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,680 Speaker 1: go up and will we see that in the auctions. 373 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 2: So it's actually something that we've observed in the past 374 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 2: year in a couple of the auctions around the world 375 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 2: that the production costs that produce a bit for is 376 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 2: actually much higher than we expected. For example, in the 377 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 2: first auction that UK run in twenty twenty three, the 378 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 2: cost is actually much higher than we estimated, mostly because 379 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,879 Speaker 2: of a couple of factors. For example, the rising equipment costs, 380 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 2: rising electricity costs, additional grid connection cost you know, alongside 381 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 2: with a couple of other factors that push up the 382 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 2: cost by at least six to seven dollars package So 383 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 2: this is pretty significant. We think that the auction plan 384 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four are likely to be affected by 385 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 2: higher costs as well. There are a couple of auctions 386 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 2: that we are closely watching al four, such as the 387 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 2: second EU Hydrogen Bank auction that will supposedly happen in 388 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 2: spring twenty twenty four. The UK and Idland would also 389 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 2: have its second hydrogen auction. Friends in Germany, as I 390 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 2: mentioned before, would also have its hydrogen tender Japan as well, 391 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 2: as I mentioned earlier, would have its CFD schemed launched 392 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 2: this summer as well. So there are a lot of 393 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 2: auctions that we're watching alpha in twenty twenty four. I 394 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 2: think it remains an outstanding question whether this kind of 395 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,119 Speaker 2: higher cost will be applied to all the markets in 396 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,119 Speaker 2: the world. It really depends on sort of the subsidy 397 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 2: and auction mechanism design as well. For example, in the EU, 398 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,360 Speaker 2: you wear some sectors face quotas or mandates to buy 399 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 2: clean hydrogen. This would create demand and also willingness to 400 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 2: pay for the green premiums amount the buyers. In that case, 401 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 2: then the bidding price in Europe might be lower than 402 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 2: the UK because the buyers are willing to pay to 403 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 2: count the cost. As I mentioned, some other countries that 404 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 2: have a different bidding mechanism might see a lower bidding 405 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 2: costs as well. This happened in the Denmark auction in 406 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 2: late twenty twenty three, and then also the Indian auction 407 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 2: that we've seen results just came out in Gen twenty 408 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 2: twenty four also saw a pretty low bidding price, like 409 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 2: some bidders actually bid zero in the auction, which is 410 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 2: quite interesting. So we think in those countries where the 411 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,959 Speaker 2: lowest bidder would get the subsidy first, in such a mechanism, 412 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 2: the bidders would tend to underbid to be able to 413 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 2: get into the auction. So in that case, the overall 414 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 2: bidding price might be lower than we expect, whereas in 415 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 2: countries like Japan as well as the UK, where the 416 00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 2: government just subsidized the cost difference between gray a green hydrogen, 417 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 2: the prize difference would actually be quite high. 418 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,360 Speaker 1: Kathy, thank you very much for joining us today from 419 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,719 Speaker 1: Hong Kong to talk about what's happening in the year 420 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 1: ahead in the world of hydrogen. 421 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 2: Thank you, Dana. 422 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: Switched On is produced by cam Gray with production assistance 423 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: from Kamala Shelling and Ulushi Kurunorate. 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