WEBVTT - Rapid COVID-19 Test Kits Producing Contradictory Results 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.960 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:05.480 Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest 0:00:05.519 --> 0:00:09.800 news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.480 all harnessing the power of Bloomberg Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:16.639 not to mention our hundred journalists and analysts more than 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.280 a hundred and twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.200 Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You can 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:24.520 also listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:28.680 Eastern only on Bloomberg Radio. Let's talk about what's going 0:00:28.720 --> 0:00:30.800 on in the markets. Business Week agenda, Let's set it. 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:34.240 Gina Martin Adams is chief equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:36.519 On the phone in New Jersey. Dave Wilson with US 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:39.000 stocks that are a Bloomberg News on the remote access 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:41.239 line from New Jersey as well. Gina, Let's start with 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:45.360 you watching the churn here a little bit back and forth, um, 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:47.840 guessing investors kind of waiting for that monthly jobs report, 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:49.400 even though we kind of know it's going to be 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:52.320 pretty bad. But how do you see the market internals 0:00:52.400 --> 0:00:56.120 right now? Yeah, we actually entered a little bit of 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.720 a consolidation phase at the very end of April. I say, 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:03.520 it's a just a tiny consolidation of a roaring rip, 0:01:03.600 --> 0:01:06.440 roaring April gain at least so far. I think that's 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:10.319 actually taken quite a few investors by surprise. Many were thinking, Okay, 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:13.280 that this can't keep going. We can't keep we can't 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:15.759 keep putting in you know, double digit pace of games 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:19.800 amidst economic weakness. But the reality is when the Fed 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:23.560 is just pummeling the market with a tremendous amount of 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:27.080 monetary policy support, quite the opposite is occurring. I do 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:29.640 think that investors are getting pulled in and fits and 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:33.160 starts two stocks, and that's probably going to characterize much 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:37.679 of the summer months. So Dave Wilson, earnings still a 0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.000 part of this conversation. What do you see as you 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:42.600 look at level deeper in the trade, You know, they 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.920 sure are Jason and maybe one stock that's indicative of 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:48.880 how the market's been going today, as Walt Disney, because 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:52.680 you know results route late yesterday, uh didn't go over 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:56.360 so well. I mean fiscal second quarter earnings and revenue 0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:59.640 coming up short of what analysts we're looking for uh, 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:02.680 you them, They've got the theme parks closed, they got 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:05.360 cruise ships that aren't going anywhere, they've got films that 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:08.840 aren't coming out, and yet the stock manages to rebound 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:10.679 and then move higher. I mean, you could focus under 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:13.920 streaming services. I suppose certainly plenty of growth at Disney 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:17.840 Plus and ESPN Plus and Hulu, and now you're looking 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.120 at the stock that's little change. So there's definitely a 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:23.440 back and forth to the market, and Disney is kind 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.760 of indicative of that. You know. Beyond that, you see 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:29.040 sort of the old favorites kind of leading the way, 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.200 the biggest technology companies, the thanks stocks in their peers. 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:35.679 And on the other hand, with bond yields going up 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:39.560 as the government lines up to borrow trillions of dollars 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:43.520 in order to pay for its deficit spending, you see 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:47.040 utility stocks down. You see real estates shares down, financial 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:49.680 companies as well. So some of the more interest rate 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:51.600 sensitive areas of the market taking a bit of a 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:53.600 hit here, Dave, you're teeing me up because I do 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:56.280 wonder Gina. You guys have been writing some research at 0:02:56.320 --> 0:03:00.160 Bloomberg Intelligence, and you talk about this unconstrained federal spendinging, 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.840 and you combine that with trade policies that pushback even 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:07.720 more so on globalization. You've got upset supply chains. All 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:11.600 of this could be inflationary um and we could see 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:14.040 that start to pick up later on this year, and 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:16.280 that could impact asset prices. Talk to us a little 0:03:16.280 --> 0:03:18.840 bit about that. Yeah, we did put a report on 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:21.919 the terminal today just talking about the the actual results 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:25.040 of COVID nineteen and this devastating recession could be an 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:29.000 inflationary regime change. We've been over the last decade really 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:31.280 in a period of time in which inflation inflation is 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:35.920 continuously decelerated, most of that driven by the commodity complex 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:40.240 as well as globalization of the technology specific supply chain. 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:44.600 And obviously we have severe disruptions and energy which are 0:03:44.640 --> 0:03:48.280 likely to constrain the supply of energy going forward. At 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:50.320 the same time, you've got a lot of disruptions to 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:53.160 globalization in the form of trade policy as well as 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:58.920 technology specific policy, and enormous fiscal and monetary policy packages. 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:02.360 All of these things combined suggests that when we do 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:07.200 get through this recession experience, as we start to recover, 0:04:08.240 --> 0:04:10.880 you might actually see an inflation outbreak, you might actually 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:14.640 see inflation start to accelerate. I would say that the 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:17.520 other the big unknown is what happens with supply chains. 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.920 You know, obviously, companies are incentivized to produce profit growth, 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:25.200 and the fastest mechanism for profit growth is margin growth. 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:30.480 So they found lowest cost labor, lowest cost production facilities globally, 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:33.680 a lot of those specifically in China in order to 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:36.719 create that margin growth potential. But if we do see 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:39.320 a diversification of supply chains, if we do see a 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:42.560 deterioration of the relationship between the US and China, on 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:45.400 top of all of these other factors, we very melt 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:48.240 well maybe in for a much different economic climate over 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:51.160 the next ten years. Then I think asset prices are 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:53.520 currently prepared for, because I would argue that asset prices 0:04:53.640 --> 0:04:57.960 right now are completely captivated by economic weakness and deflationary 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:01.200 pressures and certainly aren't thinking forward to a year or 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:04.359 two years from now where things might be markedly different. Alright, 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.360 Gina Martin Adams, thank you so much, chief equity strategist 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:10.960 at Bloomberg Intelligence, on the phone from New Jersey, along 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:13.040 with Dave Wilson, Stocks editor a Bloomberg News on the 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:16.440 remote access line from New Jersey. This is Bloomberg Business 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:21.119 Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Jason, 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:23.200 I'm not sure what this means, and maybe nothing, but 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:25.280 our story on the Bloomberg about the latest on the 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:27.440 virus was way down the list. It was like number 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:30.160 sixteen or so among our most read, when it has 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:34.120 been among the top first few on a pretty regular basis, 0:05:34.800 --> 0:05:36.920 right since all Yeah, I was kind of shocked when 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.960 I went looking forward today. Um, let's keep in mind 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.680 that a bravirus cases globally are past three point six 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:47.920 million deaths, topping two fifty eight thousand. So let's get 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:50.559 an update on where we are. Dr Ian LUs Bader 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:53.520 is black with us, his clinical associate Professor Medicine at 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:55.880 n y U Landgoing Medical Center. He's on the phone 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.080 in New York City. Dr Lusbader, Nice to have you 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:02.279 back with us. How are you? Always a pleasure? Thanks 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:08.760 for having me as always so interesting developments as always? 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:12.560 How how are how are things going? Yeah? Um, you know, 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:16.200 I think again our tale of two cities good news 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:19.520 and bad news in some ways, and I think for 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:23.920 me helping in the intensive care units this weekend. UM, 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:27.240 I was really most concerned and struck by this population 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:33.320 of patients with COVID on ventilators who really have not recovered. Uh. Fortunately, 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:36.640 as we've talked about, you know, the majority of patients 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:40.039 we're gu estimating around you know, we see as out 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:44.159 patients cost fever, chills, diarrhea, and they do well, and 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:47.359 there's a population that unfortunately need to come into the 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:51.760 hospital and uh ju deteriorate from these multiple clots and 0:06:51.839 --> 0:06:56.960 multiple systems. UH And in this particular ward, it's really 0:06:57.000 --> 0:07:01.400 sort of a chronic ventilator ward. UM. What I'm releasing 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:06.599 our families that are uh not really prepared to deal 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:10.000 with these patients who are uneventilator and with a little 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:14.040 chance of coming off that and most have not been 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:17.880 considering something called advanced care planning. In other words, they 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:22.280 haven't had the conversation with their relatives. And many are older, 0:07:22.320 --> 0:07:26.720 they're sixty seventy eight and never really had this conversation 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:28.880 with them. And I think it's just very important to 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:32.880 you know, tell our listeners about that, uh and really 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:37.000 at any age to have that conversation. Many websites are 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:43.120 available CMS and a HPMU Embaricade Association of Hospital and 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:46.880 Tality of Care Medicine to really UH find out about 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:51.360 what are different kinds of life sustaining treatments, What treatments 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:53.840 would the patient wants should they be diagnosed with a 0:07:53.880 --> 0:07:57.640 life limiting condition. UH to complete a directive and advanced 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:01.320 directive which may include a healthcare proxy, so someone knows 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:05.040 that patients wishes and they're legally empowered to make decisions 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:07.440 when they can't do it. There are things called the 0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:10.880 most former electronic most form, which is medical orders for 0:08:10.960 --> 0:08:14.400 life sustaining treatment. So all of these things I think 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:18.240 are uncomfortable for many people to talk about, but I 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:24.840 think this crisis really is an opportunity for people to 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:28.360 have that conversation. I have to say, having had conversations 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:30.840 like that with both of my parents who I have lost, 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:33.840 it was very difficult, but it was necessary and it 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:36.560 was something they wanted to do as much as you 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.880 know they wanted to be, you know, have some say 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:41.800 in this, so it's really important. I agree with you 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:43.280 that this is an important issue of all of this. 0:08:44.559 --> 0:08:48.520 It's so awkward when families um have a loved one 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:51.760 that has deteriorated requires event a later, you know, with 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:54.600 or without COVID, And often these patients have COVID with 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:59.480 associated other you know, illnesses and are really unsure about 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:02.480 what to do. The patient isn't getting better, They're very stressed, 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:05.640 very sad. Prognosis may be very limited, they may have 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:11.360 other issues you know, underlying cancer's, lymphoma, other other big strokes, etcetera. 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:14.280 And it would be so much easier for the families 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:17.680 had they had an understanding of what the patient would 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:20.439 have wanted, had they known they would be in this situation. 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:23.679 And I was just struck by rounds in the ICU 0:09:24.000 --> 0:09:26.640 where just had had there been a little bit of 0:09:26.640 --> 0:09:31.080 this advanced care planning, uh, patients could be made more comfortable, 0:09:31.440 --> 0:09:35.360 families could be more comfortable emotionally with what's happening and 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:38.040 with some of the difficult decisions that sometimes has to 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:41.360 be made, you know, when patients are in this condition well, 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:43.760 and I would imagine it's only exacerbated. I think you 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:47.720 alluded to this inn by the fact that oftentimes people 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:50.640 aren't able or really all the time. In the case 0:09:50.679 --> 0:09:54.120 of COVID cases, family can't be there, and so those 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:57.000 those conversations you know, even when you, as a doctor, 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:59.560 I would imagine are wanting to have a conversation with 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:01.600 with the family, Remember you're doing it over FaceTime or 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:04.120 over the phone, and you can't sort of have that 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:08.840 more sincere and moment where you're making some judgment calls. 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:15.560 And I do wonder how those decisions have really changed 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:18.160 doctors to some extent, because you know, you've been pretty 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:22.160 clear about the fact that making some different sorts of 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.360 decisions along the way, I mean, have changed doctors as 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:30.360 human beings and maybe as professionals going forward. You're exactly right. 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:32.360 One of the and this has been written about, one 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:36.120 of the most sad aspects of COVID is really these 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:40.360 patients UM dying alone or suffering somewhat. Of course you're 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:43.360 trying to alleviate any pain or suffering UM, but but 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:46.200 they are alone, and patients we know do better with 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:50.400 connection and only having a connection with healthcare workers. UM 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:54.280 that's helpful, but it is a unique situation where families 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:56.720 can't be at the bedside, and to me, it's so 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:59.920 we do try and do those UM visits by face 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.280 time and so forth. Sometimes the patients are not always 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:08.600 alert and so having misunderstanding having these conversations even reading 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:12.640 about things now for healthy people, very important to get 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:16.600 healthcare proxies early on and have think about what wishes 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:19.360 would be helpful and make sure family members and healthcare 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:23.240 proxies and paperwork is done so that if God forbid 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.760 there's a problem, at least there's a game plan. Yeah, exactly. 0:11:26.760 --> 0:11:29.160 We're going to continue the conversation with Dr Ian lust Bada, 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.600 clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at n y U Land 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:33.560 Going Medical Center. And I do want to get his 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:37.160 take on a headline California reports two thousand, six hundred 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:40.800 three new virus cases largest one day jump. I do 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.640 want to see what he has to say about, you know, 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:47.720 all our many states easing the lockdown restrictions. Let's continue 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:51.480 our conversation with Dr Ian LUs Bader, clinical Associate Professor 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:55.160 of Medicine at the n y U Lang Going Medical Center. 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:58.040 As I said, our go to doc when we want 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:00.320 to really understand what's going on. He's been on the 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:03.199 front lines, as he mentioned earlier in the conversation, working 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:05.920 in the i c U. So Ian, I have to 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:10.320 ask you, we are seeing continually some troubling numbers as 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:13.280 these cases rise a record day in California. On the 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:16.480 other side of the country, we continue to see, even 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.120 though they are declining, pretty big numbers here in New 0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:22.440 York State, and yet a lot of reopening going on, 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:26.120 a lot of reopening talk happening. How do you square that. 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:29.880 What's the medical side of this? Well, I think we're 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:34.040 in uncharted territory. Uh, we have not had a pandemic 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:40.000 like this exactly. How to do this delicately and balanced 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:43.520 the economy and people's psychology? Who are getting a little 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:46.120 store crazy? You see them out on the street. You 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:48.839 know there's a higher volume most people. I don't want 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:52.880 to say people are disobeying home isolation, but people are 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.920 finding excuses to go out, go to the drudge store, 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.720 get a breath of fresh air. So I think the 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:03.559 weather and time at home is uh is working against 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:07.480 being very restrictive, which is a challenge. Governor Cuomo has 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:14.560 commented about, uh seemingly this increased incidence of coronavirus hospitalizations 0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:17.120 with people who seemingly have stayed at home and I've 0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:20.960 had no exposure. Very hard to explain that. Uh. So 0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:24.440 there's really a push and pull with trying to be 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:28.560 a d percent safe and reopening the economy by definition 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:33.240 when people return without knowing their antibody status. Uh, And 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:36.840 we're sending a lot of patients for blood testing. It's 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:39.520 going to be impossible to send everybody to the lab 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:41.640 for blood testing. And then what do you do if 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:45.679 people don't have antibodies? Uh? Are they not supposed to 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:47.640 go back to work? So I think this is a 0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:51.640 work in progress. Uh. It is disturbing because the virus 0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:55.520 is clearly not going away. There's some evidence of people 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.640 with antibodies or people who seem to get better with 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:02.160 COVID nineteen and then within a few days or a 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:05.320 week feel sick again, and when they do nasal swabs 0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:08.680 find the virus there again. So we don't fully understand 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:11.920 the virus. We don't understand why seemingly if you have 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:16.480 antiboddies you you can relapse. Uh. So this is going 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.360 to be a challenge. But it seems to me at 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.600 least that the wave of people who want to get back, 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:25.400 who need to get back, are going to win the 0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:28.280 tug of war, and we may have to be prepared 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:34.240 for for more cases. Unfortunately. Well, and I well, that's 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:36.920 what because you know, we've had certainly statements from President 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:40.880 Trump about this in terms of you know, reopening, and 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.600 I just do wonder if this is unfortunately going to 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:45.640 have to be part of the process because we don't know, 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.640 as you said, UM, and we don't know a ton 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:53.440 about this virus, and so you know, we don't totally 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:56.400 understand full immunity and how to get there. So I 0:14:56.440 --> 0:15:00.320 do wonder if these reopenings and unfortunately spikes are going 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:02.160 to have to be part of the process. But do 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:04.680 you you know, as a result of these spikes, does 0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:08.960 that mean we should then also shut down again? You know, 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.880 I would defer to UH DR Fauci and and UH 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:17.440 leadership on this. I think it's going to be very 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:19.760 hard to send people back, and I think that would 0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:23.880 really throw the economy into a serious tail spin. UH. 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:26.600 To me, it seems that we will have to put 0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.920 our toe in the water, have people wear masks, have 0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:34.400 critical services, start back and UH and then observe what 0:15:34.440 --> 0:15:39.040 the numbers are because her immunity, as we've said before, 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.880 is not going to be achieved by a vaccine, which 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:47.200 is months or longer than that away. The vaccines haven't 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:50.360 been developed, they haven't been tested, UH, and we don't 0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:54.359 really know on a widespread scale will they even work effectively. 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:56.680 Things like the flu shot you know, we know are 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.960 not a hundred percent effective. So I think no matter 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:04.840 what we do, a life will resume, probably with masks 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.240 and social distancing, and I think the number of cases 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:11.360 will not drop to zero. Hopefully though we will have 0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:17.320 better medications to modify the disease to give people more hope, 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.160 and certainly for those patients as we said earlier in 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:24.040 the show that um you know, are chronically on ventilators, 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:27.520 we need to have some conversations that advance care planning 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:31.840 that we talked about. So if people jugitary rate, or 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:35.400 if they're older and a high risk, at least there's 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:39.000 some sense with a family about what their wishes are. Yeah, alright, well, 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.600 great stuff. As always, we really appreciated Dr Ian less Vader, 0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:44.520 Clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at n Y use Link 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:49.640 on Medical Center. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:53.760 Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. This is a 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:56.680 story that both Carol and I read, and I know 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.160 a lot of people have read over the last couple 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:04.560 of days because we're all looking for answers, and those 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:08.199 answers are increasingly hard to find. This story is just 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.600 one of these great first person pieces written by one 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:14.760 of the best writers I think across the Bloomberg Empire, 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:17.679 Stephanie Baker. She's based in London. She joins us on 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:21.360 the phone from They're great to catch up with you, Stephanie. 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:26.280 Thank you all right, So tell us about this piece, 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:30.800 because you really just outlined and documented your trials and 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:34.359 tribulations in trying to figure out whether you had COVID 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:38.439 nineteen right. And you know, I did this because, um, 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:42.520 I realized that I, like many other people had, was 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:45.359 wondering whether or not I might have had it. UM, 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:47.200 And I think those are a lot of other people 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:51.399 were in a similar situation. And I had written about 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:55.439 antibody testing, as you know, being trumpeted by politicians as 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:59.320 a way out of lockdown, but had talked to scientists 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:02.240 who had beside these anybody's tests is being unreliable. So 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:04.480 I thought, well, if I throw myself into this world, 0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:07.960 um and really do some research and test it on myself, 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:10.680 I'll get to the bottom of of you know, how 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:15.080 reliably reliable these tests are. UM. And you know, I 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:17.280 thought well, maybe it will be really boring and I'll 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:20.600 just get you know, a bunch of negative results a 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:26.399 story and then um. And then so when when I 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:29.200 started out, I got a negative test and I thought, oh, this, 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:30.639 what's going to happen. I'm just going to get a 0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:32.560 bunch of negatives and I won't have a story or 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:36.639 much to say. Um. And then the next test was positive, 0:18:36.680 --> 0:18:39.760 and I was really confounded. The third test was also positive, 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:43.040 so I figured, well, two out of three, you know, 0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:46.520 the first test must be an outlier. By the time 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.280 I took the fourth test, which was negative, I thought, 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:52.480 well too positives, too negatives. I have no clue whether 0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:55.520 or not I've had it. And then I started and 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:57.960 you have a story. You definitely have a story. There 0:18:58.240 --> 0:19:00.879 a story. I started. I could clothes or look at 0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:04.440 these tests. Why would I be getting, you know, differing results. 0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:06.560 You know, there's obviously a lot of these companies are 0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:13.280 claiming incredibly high almost perfect specificity, very high sensitivity rates. 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.040 But what I realized is that some of them are 0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:19.840 testing different UH antibodies to different parts of the virus. 0:19:19.920 --> 0:19:23.360 Some tests just for antibodies against the so called spike protein, 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:26.520 which is a sort of calling card of this novel coronavirus. 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:31.280 Others test for antibodies against UH something called the nuclear 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:35.880 capsid protein, which are far more abundant and easier to detect. 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:38.240 Some tests for both, and I think that's one of 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:40.800 the reasons why they're I got so many varying results. 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:44.480 Oh my god, so many questions. Because what's key about this, right, Stephanie, 0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:47.080 is that so many world leaders, and you write this 0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:50.199 in your story, have said that we need these antibody 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:53.480 tests to determine who has had the virus, who has immunity, 0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:55.800 so we can reopen up the economies and so everybody 0:19:55.840 --> 0:19:57.679 can feel safe. But what I got from your story 0:19:57.800 --> 0:20:00.520 is that there are tons of different stories, different types 0:20:00.560 --> 0:20:03.479 of tests, excuse me, out there, and there are some 0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:05.840 differences between what's done in the lab versus what you 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:08.359 can do kind of a rapid test. And the problem 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:11.200 is there's a lot of variation, right, So I feel 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:13.160 like there's not a lot of certainty that comes out 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:17.919 of these antibody tests. Yeah. Absolutely, And and look, you know, 0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:19.600 one of the things I should say at this at 0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:23.360 the start here is that UM scientists don't know if 0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:27.240 you have antibodies, how much protection they actually provide. You know, 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:29.680 many people, many scientists, think that it will give you 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:33.600 at least a few months of protection, perhaps several years. 0:20:33.600 --> 0:20:36.639 But the virus has only been around, um, you know 0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:40.720 that we're aware of since January. Still still so much 0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:43.639 to learn. UM. And it's hard to see to study 0:20:43.760 --> 0:20:47.760 how long immunity laughs and and what level of antibodies 0:20:47.760 --> 0:20:52.520 really provides you any protection. But my takeaway from this 0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:56.320 very unscientific little experiment I did was that these tests 0:20:56.359 --> 0:21:00.760 by and large are not ready for prime time. And UM, 0:21:00.800 --> 0:21:03.920 I'm surprised at the overwhelming number of messages I got 0:21:03.960 --> 0:21:09.800 from friends and contacts and Bloomberg users saying, UM, I 0:21:09.840 --> 0:21:13.399 got a test, is it correct or I'm going to 0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:16.920 get a test and what do you think? Um? And 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:18.960 you know other people who like who said well, I 0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:21.240 took two tests and I had a similar experience to you. 0:21:21.720 --> 0:21:25.439 I got conflicting results. So UM, I've surprised at how 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:27.800 much this story is kind of captured what is on 0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:30.960 so many people's minds right now. UM, And I think 0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:34.720 there needs to be a lot more research into antibodies 0:21:34.920 --> 0:21:38.560 and how to detect them before we can think about 0:21:38.680 --> 0:21:40.720 rolling this out on a wider scale, and I feel 0:21:40.720 --> 0:21:43.480 like the conversations have increasingly moved from oh my gosh, 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:47.639 we figured it out, you know, on one level pre vaccine, 0:21:48.040 --> 0:21:51.880 to wait a minute, it's not so clear cut, um, 0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:54.600 you know. So I don't know when you see the 0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:59.280 headlines when it comes to reopening economies and you know 0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:01.520 how long it's going to take for a vaccine, I 0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:05.400 don't know what conclusions do you come to. I think 0:22:05.440 --> 0:22:08.880 everyone is going to have to be really cautious, uh, 0:22:09.000 --> 0:22:11.840 you know, for the foreseeable future, until there is a vaccine, 0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:15.320 even if they've had COVID nineteen and they've recovered and 0:22:15.359 --> 0:22:18.760 they've got perhaps a test that shows they have some 0:22:19.440 --> 0:22:23.640 level of antibodies, because we just don't know how long 0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:28.280 that will last and how much protection it will provide. Um, 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:30.520 And you know, I would agree. I think the only 0:22:30.680 --> 0:22:36.800 real comfort is when a vaccine, uh you know, is 0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:39.359 found and is rolled out worldwide, which will take a 0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:41.959 long time. So, Sephie, I do have to ask you, 0:22:42.000 --> 0:22:44.760 since since we have you here and you talk with 0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:47.680 you know, high level sources across the world and especially 0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:52.000 there in London, like, what's your take on the return 0:22:52.080 --> 0:22:55.480