1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business 2 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 1: Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you 3 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and 4 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer 5 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 6 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 2: Now, would you want to get to one thing that 7 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 2: is certainly toplined for world leaders at G twenty and elsewhere? 8 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 3: Dj T Donald J. Trump's administration and. 9 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 2: Cabinet picks chief among them, who will take the job 10 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: of US Treasury Secretary. 11 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of turning into this game of thrones, 12 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 4: and that's where we go now to jockeying around the 13 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 4: selection for the nation's next treasury secretary. Bloomberg business Week 14 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 4: national correspondent Josh Green joins us on that and on 15 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 4: his BusinessWeek story on the President Elect's impossible task. Josh 16 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 4: is the author of Devils Bargain, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump 17 00:00:56,160 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 4: and the Nationalists Uprising and the Rebels, Elizabeth Warrenney Sanders, 18 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 4: Alexandria Kasia Cortez and the Struggle Free New American Politics. 19 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 2: All right, Josh, great to have you here. Josh joining 20 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 2: us from our Bloomberg Washington DC bureau. Hey, Josh, first step, 21 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 2: I want to ask you about the pick for Treasury 22 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 2: secretary or the process in the behind the scenes, a 23 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 2: super important job. Wall Street is watching, the world is watching. 24 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:20,119 Speaker 2: What are you hearing about this process? 25 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 5: Yeah? Oh, I put process in quotes. 26 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 6: First of all, I mean it's turned out into like 27 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:28,679 Speaker 6: an absolute blood bath, with competing candidates stabbing each other 28 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 6: in the back. And what you have now is a 29 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 6: list of people who are under consideration. Howard Lutnick, Scott Bessant, 30 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 6: Robert Leitthheiser, the former trade representative. None of them has 31 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 6: been named. There's a lot of jockey going on behind 32 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 6: the scenes. Trump himself doesn't seem to be happy with 33 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 6: any of the candidates, and as we report in Bloomberg, 34 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 6: he's very unhappy that these fights have spilled out into 35 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 6: public view. So the latest we're hearing is that Trump 36 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 6: is sort of casting about for somebody who would fill 37 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 6: what he thinks is the role of Treasury attacker, meaning 38 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 6: somebody big, powerful, respected by Wall Street. Some of the 39 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 6: names we're hearing and have reported Mark Rowan of Apollo, 40 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 6: Kevin Walsh, the former Fed governor. There are other dark 41 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 6: horse names floating around, but right now everybody in Washington's 42 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 6: trying to figure out, you know, where where the musical 43 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 6: chairs will stop and who will wind up in that 44 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 6: very important position. 45 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 4: Is it hard to find somebody who's respected by Wall 46 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:23,799 Speaker 4: Street but also believes what Donald Trump believes when it 47 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 4: comes to tariff's Josh, yeah, I. 48 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 6: Think that's exactly the tension is. You can Trump can 49 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 6: certainly find someone like a Lighthiveser who really believes in 50 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 6: the use of tariffs. But as a number of sources 51 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 6: told us, wall Street would would would panic if somebody 52 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 6: who was seen as too extreme on tariffs gets in there. 53 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 6: On the other hand, you have guys with stirling reputations 54 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,079 Speaker 6: who would be embraced I think by wall Street both 55 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 6: a warsh or a best and somebody like that who 56 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 6: may not be as willing to come out and embrace, 57 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 6: embrace a steep tariff regime of the type that Trumps 58 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 6: has bandied about, knowing that the damage that that could 59 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 6: potentally caused to markets if they were implemented, you know, 60 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 6: and disrupted a lot of things in the global markets. 61 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 6: So it's tough to find just the right candidate who 62 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 6: has both the stature, the wealth, the name that Trump wants, 63 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 6: and also the willingness to do Trump's bidding. 64 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: Hey, Josh, we have not had a chance to talk 65 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,079 Speaker 2: to you about the election outcome. You really wrote the 66 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 2: book An Understanding Donald Trump's first run at the White 67 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 2: House and his win that time around. What do you 68 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:30,800 Speaker 2: make of him running a winning excuse me, a second term? 69 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 5: Well? 70 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:33,239 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it was a surprise to a lot 71 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 6: of people, but in a lot of ways, it's a 72 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 6: much more impressive victory than his win in twenty sixteen, 73 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 6: which took a lot of people by surprise. He did 74 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 6: not win a majority of the popular vote that time. 75 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 6: Looks almost certain that he will this time. And I 76 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,119 Speaker 6: think what's most important is the coalition that Trump put 77 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 6: together and winning the twenty twenty four election. There were 78 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 6: both the kind of high wattage billionaire supporters, people like 79 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 6: Howard lutt Nick and Elon Musk, But on the other hand, 80 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:03,119 Speaker 6: Trump cobbled together a really racially diverse, working class coalition 81 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 6: that we hadn't seen the last time around. A lot 82 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 6: of voters that traditionally vote Democrat were persuaded to come 83 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 6: over and vote for Trump, and as a result, he 84 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 6: has a really big coalition. As I write about in 85 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 6: the new issue of BusinessWeek, Trump has pursued this kind 86 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 6: of what I call plutocratic populism, and I think the 87 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 6: main tension in his second presidency is going to be 88 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 6: how to balance the interests of working class people with 89 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 6: the interests of the billionaire and Wall Street crowd, who 90 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 6: are another important coalition form. 91 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 4: So let's talk a little bit about that, Josh. Because 92 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 4: you came with receipts, you have the numbers here. Why 93 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 4: is that an impossible task? Why is he unable to 94 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,280 Speaker 4: do that and make good on really every promise that 95 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 4: he made on the campaign trail. 96 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 6: Well, if you look at exit poll numbers and just 97 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 6: in my own interviews with undecided voters and people were 98 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 6: Trump supporters, a lot of what drove Trump's support was 99 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 6: voter anger, especially working class voter anger over inflation high prices, 100 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 6: for which they blamed Kamala Harris personally. They didn't want 101 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:01,839 Speaker 6: her back in that y. They remember the Trump era, 102 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 6: rightly or wrongly, as a time of lower prices, lower inflation, 103 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 6: strong paychecks for everybody, and so they voted for Trump 104 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 6: in the hopes that he would bring that back. But 105 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 6: if you look at what some of Trump is planning 106 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 6: to do, you know, the first item on his agenda 107 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 6: looks to be extending his twenty seventeen tax cuts and 108 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:24,919 Speaker 6: maybe even cutting corporate taxes deeper than he did the 109 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 6: first time around, which would be very exciting to his 110 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 6: Wall Street contingent, to his billionaire contingent. But it could 111 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 6: certainly help exacerbate inflation, as could a steep. 112 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 5: Round of tariff. 113 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 6: So on the one hand, you know, you could satisfy 114 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 6: one half of the coalition, But if the cost of 115 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 6: that was for prices, inflation, and interest rates to rise again, 116 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 6: then a lot of the same working class voters who 117 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 6: supported him two weeks ago could potentially turn on him 118 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 6: and Republicans in the midterm elections and handpower back to 119 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 6: the Democrats. 120 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 2: Hey, how much do you think, though Donald J. Trump 121 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 2: thinks about the midterms at this point? All right? 122 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 3: I mean essentially, right, this is his second term, he's 123 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 3: a lame duck president. 124 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 2: He can do a lot of stuff, and he's got 125 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 2: a Congress, But how much do you think he thinks 126 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,600 Speaker 2: about what happens at midterms versus following through on his mandate? 127 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 5: It's a great question, Carrol. 128 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 6: It's one I've asked to some people around him, and 129 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 6: the truthful answer I got is he doesn't really care 130 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 6: at all. What he cares about is this approval rating. 131 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 6: He'd like to have a booming stock market the way 132 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,919 Speaker 6: he did in his first term, and so part of 133 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 6: the thinking in Trump world is that even if he 134 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 6: did promote someone a Treasury secretary who got behind this 135 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 6: tariff regime and things went badly in the economy, if 136 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 6: the market were to fall, that might be a kind 137 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 6: of disciplining mechanism for Trump to step back a little bit, 138 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 6: because he really does view the stock market, the S 139 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,359 Speaker 6: and P as a kind of verdict on the success 140 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 6: or failure of his presidency. But certainly, thinking about the 141 00:06:55,920 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 6: fortunes of congressional Republicans in twenty twenty six probably not 142 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 6: top of mind for Donald Trump right now. 143 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 5: That's interesting to hear. Why do you think that is? 144 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 4: Because it sort of does provide, to a certain extent, 145 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 4: a check on what he's able to do, Because if 146 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 4: he puts policies into place that are unpopular among his base, 147 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 4: then he could really pay a price in the midterms. 148 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, he could. 149 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 6: I mean, I've gotten a couple answers from that in 150 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 6: my reporting. One is that Trump simply does not believe 151 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 6: what most mainstream economists believe, and that is that tariffs 152 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 6: are inflationary and the cost will be passed along to 153 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 6: consumers in the form of higher prices. I and my 154 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 6: Business We colleagues got to ask Trump about that for 155 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 6: a Business We Cover story cover interview we did with 156 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 6: Donald Trump back in July at mar A Lago, and 157 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 6: he simply disagrees. He said, well, if tariffs were inflationary, 158 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 6: we would have had inflation during my first presidency when 159 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 6: I imposed rounds of tariffs, and we didn't, and therefore 160 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 6: it's not going. 161 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 5: To be a problem. 162 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 6: A lot of people around Trump publicly surrogates, have taken 163 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 6: to echoing those points. So, as one of my sources 164 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 6: pointed out to me in my current Business Week story, 165 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 6: Trump doesn't believe that tariffs are inflationary. Therefore he's not 166 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 6: going to believe it until they're implemented and until we 167 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 6: see inflation. So to me, that suggests that we may 168 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 6: be in for a rocky ride financially economically over the 169 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 6: next four years if Trump is able to go ahead 170 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 6: and do what he says he's going to do. And 171 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 6: there are fewer guardrails and fewer breaks with Republicans controlling 172 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 6: all three branches of Congress now than there were last 173 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 6: time around. So I think I think his theories on 174 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 6: tariffs and everything else make it a real test run. 175 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 2: I also do wonder, Josh, do you think Donald Trump 176 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 2: thinks about his legacy? You know two assassination tempts, you know, 177 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 2: one that we you know, obviously more serious it seems, 178 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:46,839 Speaker 2: in certainly than the other one. But I do wonder 179 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 2: if he's an older man, right, we all get older, 180 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 2: we start to think about kind of our life's impact. 181 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 2: Is this your understanding of him? 182 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 3: You think he's thinking about that? 183 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 6: In this second, I'll say this, I'll say that you know, 184 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 6: he and I have I've never had that discussion. But 185 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 6: from everything I've seen from him, from everything I've heard 186 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 6: from people around him, Trump tends to live in the 187 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 6: here and now. I mean he is responsive to the 188 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 6: cable chirons that he sees on TV. He's responsive to 189 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 6: the closing price in the stock market. He's responsive to, 190 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 6: you know, whether or not the Justice Department is going 191 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 6: to convict him and send him to jail. Which it 192 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 6: doesn't look what they are now, not so much thinking 193 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 6: about how his obituary will look in the New York Times. 194 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 6: But that being said, look, all presidents like to succeed. 195 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 6: I'm sure Trump would like high approval numbers and a 196 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 6: lot of the signifiers that Trump looks to for validation, 197 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 6: things like the level of the stock market, the wealth 198 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 6: of the United States, the trade deficit. Those are all 199 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 6: measuring sticks that I think Trump is going to use 200 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 6: to measure his own performance. And we'll have to see 201 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 6: if he can get those boosted along the lines that 202 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 6: I know he wants to based on the policies that 203 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:57,839 Speaker 6: he said he's going to pursue, and if he can 204 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 6: do it without breaking apart that broad coalition of both 205 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 6: Wall Street folks and working class folks that got him 206 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 6: elected on November. 207 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 4: Fifth, Josh to speaking of policies, do you believe that 208 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 4: he will actually make good based on the folks you 209 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 4: talk to of deporting millions of people who are here 210 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 4: illegally on day one. 211 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 6: He's certainly shown every sign that he intends to do that, 212 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 6: both from the people he's put in top level positions, 213 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 6: people like Stephen Miller and Tom Holmans, that would lead 214 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 6: that effort to some of the comments he's made more 215 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 6: recently about being willing to deputize US law enforcement to 216 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 6: help carry out this deportation. So, everything we've seen so 217 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 6: far suggests that yes, Trump is very serious about that 218 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 6: and intends to pursue it as president. 219 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 2: Hey, just thirty seconds here to wrap up, and you've 220 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,439 Speaker 2: wrap up your piece. I mean, Donald Trump may also 221 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 2: just be lucky in terms of timing right policies put 222 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 2: in place by the Body administration. He may reap the 223 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 2: benefits up just quickly. 224 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean. 225 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 6: The thing that galls so many Biden people and so 226 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 6: many Democratic sources is look at the economy Joe Biden 227 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 6: has bequeathed Donald Trump. Inflation coming down, the stock market 228 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 6: is at record highs. We have all these new jobs 229 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 6: in manufacturing factories being built all across the country with 230 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 6: money that Biden really helped put in place. And now 231 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 6: Donald Trump is about to take over as president and 232 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 6: reap the political benefits and credit for all of those things. 233 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,559 Speaker 6: Great timing for Donald Trump, not so great timing for 234 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:22,079 Speaker 6: Joe Biden. 235 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 3: Sowa's bat timing, isn't it all right? Josh Green? Good stuff? 236 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 3: Thank you? 237 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 2: Thank you, Bloomberg BusinessWeek National correspondent. Check out his story 238 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 2: on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com slash BusinessWeek. 239 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch US 240 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen 241 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:41,959 Speaker 1: on Apple card Play and then brought auto with a 242 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app, or watch US Live on YouTube. 243 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:47,319 Speaker 5: Robert F. 244 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:50,719 Speaker 2: Kennedy Junior's selection to service President like Donald Trump's top 245 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 2: health official, is prompting questions from policy watchers over how 246 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 2: the pick will handle the range of health and really 247 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 2: key health policies that would fall under his per. 248 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 4: He's an environmental lawyer and vocal vaccine skeptic. He's publicly 249 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 4: taken positions against food additives and immunization recommendations, but the 250 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 4: nominee for Secretary of the US Department of Health and 251 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 4: Human Services has been relatively quiet on many of the 252 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 4: other issues he would oversee while leading thirteen supporting agencies 253 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 4: in more than eighty thousand federal employees. So let's get 254 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:21,079 Speaker 4: to the interview we got with US doctor Paul Offitt, 255 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 4: director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children's Hospital 256 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 4: of Philadelphia, who joins us from Philadelphia. 257 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 5: Doctor, good to have you with us. 258 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 4: How might RFK Junior impact healthcare, food, medical research and 259 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 4: more here in the US. 260 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 7: He is a very long anti vaccine activist. He is 261 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 7: a science denialist, and he is a conspiracy theorist. This 262 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:43,079 Speaker 7: is not the kind of person you want to head 263 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 7: health agencies. I mean he has said that no vaccine 264 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,559 Speaker 7: is a benefit. He has said that the polio vaccine 265 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 7: killed more people than it ever saved. He thinks that 266 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 7: HIV human and deficiency virus is not the cause of AIDS. 267 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 7: He's an AIGs denialist. He thinks we should drink raw milk, 268 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,079 Speaker 7: which will put us one once again in a position 269 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,440 Speaker 7: of risking things like campelo bacer and he call I 270 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 7: in salmonella. He thinks that the SARS virus was created 271 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 7: in the laboratory and specifically designed to spare Ashkenazi Jews 272 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 7: in Chinese and target whites and blacks. I mean, this 273 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:17,559 Speaker 7: is the man you want to head health agencies. 274 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 5: I don't think. 275 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 3: So what scares you the most, Well, what scares. 276 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 7: Me the most is is that that he now has 277 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 7: has a bigger platform to be anti vaccine. So I 278 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 7: mean He's always had a platform owing to the famous name, 279 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 7: but now that he's even considered for this position gives 280 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 7: him a certain level of credibility, which he certainly doesn't deserve. 281 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 7: Let's suppose you have a vaccine that is submitted to 282 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 7: the FDA for licensure, and it's it's excellent, and it's 283 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:46,959 Speaker 7: better than what we've had. I think, you know, say 284 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 7: I'm on the FDA Vaccine Devisory Committee. Let's say that 285 00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 7: we recommend a licensure, and then the FDA considers that 286 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 7: recommendation and degrees he could say, no, I think there 287 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 7: needs to be more study. Similarly, he could could try 288 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 7: and strip away the the CDC's capacity to recommend vaccines. 289 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 7: He could take the advisory committees to both those agencies 290 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 7: FDA and CDC and try and stock it with people 291 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 7: who are similarly like minded science denialists, such as himself. 292 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 7: I don't understand this. And when he talks about, for example, 293 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 7: something that makes sense, which is trying to make our 294 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 7: country healthier, decrease obesity, decrease type two diabetes and the 295 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 7: consequences of those disorders such as strokes and heart attacks, 296 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 7: I'm all for that. Great idea. But there are a 297 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 7: lot of people out there who could do that job 298 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 7: much better than he can given his science denialism. 299 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 2: Doctor offittt on vaccine specifically, Robert F. Kennedy, as you know, 300 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 2: has often been referred to as a vaccine skeptic. You 301 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 2: call yourself a vaccine skeptic. 302 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 3: What's the difference. 303 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 7: A skeptic is somebody who says, prove it to me, 304 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 7: show me you're right. So when we sit around the 305 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 7: table at the FDA Vaccine Advisor Committee and consider vaccines, 306 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 7: as we did for the COVID vaccines, for example, in 307 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 7: December of twenty twenty, show us the data, prove that 308 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 7: it's effective, prove that it's safe, so that we can 309 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 7: then recommend it in good conscience. That's skepticisms. Skepticism is healthy. 310 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 7: He's a cynic. He's a vaccine cynic. He doesn't believe 311 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 7: the data. He thinks that there are dark, evil forces 312 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 7: working behind the scenes that are misrepresenting data. What he 313 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 7: doesn't realize is that there. 314 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 5: Is no hiding. 315 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 7: Even a farm pharmacytical company misrepresented data on safety or 316 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 7: efficacy that will soon be found out because there are 317 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 7: post marketing studies like that can be done by the 318 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 7: Vaccine Safety Data Link, where you'll know if there's a 319 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 7: problem immediately. There is no hiding, so his whole premise 320 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 7: is wrong. 321 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 4: One thing that I've been wondering is how different are 322 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 4: we than other developed countries or other wealthy countries when 323 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 4: it comes to vaccine schedules. 324 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 5: Doctor? 325 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 4: Do we do things differently than other countries around the world. 326 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 7: We tend to recommend more vaccines than most other countries. So, 327 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 7: for example, the chicken pox vaccine, which came onto the 328 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 7: market in nineteen ninety five is not used in a 329 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 7: number of developed world countries. They're willing to have children 330 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 7: suffer tricken pox. In this country, obviously, there would be 331 00:15:58,240 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 7: millions of cases of chicken pox a year, and there 332 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 7: be about about seventy five two hundred people who would 333 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 7: die off chicken pox, and there would be tens of 334 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 7: thousands of hospitalizations. So we thought that was worth eliminating. 335 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 7: But you know, not all countries felt the same way. 336 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 4: Other than that, though, are there aren't big differences? 337 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 5: No? No, For the most. 338 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 7: Part, the developed world doesn't like children, so we would. 339 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 4: So if you did over end up overseeing the CDC 340 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 4: and changing the recommendations we'd be an outlier in this 341 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 4: country based on some of the recommendtions that he could make. 342 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 7: Right, I think his fanatical anti vaccine activismsm has already 343 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 7: scared people. I mean, if you look, for example, over 344 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 7: the last few years, our number of cases of measles 345 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 7: have increased dramatically. Last year we had three thousand cases 346 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 7: of protesterler hooping cough. This year we have seventeen thousand. 347 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 7: We've had more than two hundred children less than eighteen 348 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 7: years of eight dive influenza over the pasture. That's a 349 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 7: high number. So you're already seeing an erosion in trust, 350 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 7: already seeing an erosion in vaccine rates among kindergartens, and 351 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 7: as a content winch, you're seeing an increase in infectious 352 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 7: diseases that are preventable. It's unconscionable. 353 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 3: I have to say. 354 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,640 Speaker 2: I have talked with colleagues and friends and associates who 355 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 2: have autistic children now adults, and who are open to 356 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 2: the idea that maybe vaccines cause this problem. So like 357 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 2: there is you know, I've had these discussions. I guess 358 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 2: what I wonder about, are we going to maybe depending 359 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 2: on what comes out If RFK is indeed our next 360 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 2: top health voice. 361 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 3: Here in the administration. 362 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 2: That will that potentially lead to maybe some kind of 363 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 2: ruling or mandate that comes down that says we don't 364 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 2: believe in vaccines and then are they not covered by insurance? Like, 365 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 2: how does this potentially play out realistically? 366 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 7: Right? So, so there's the Vaccine for Children's program which 367 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,680 Speaker 7: was born in the nineteen nineties and the Clinton administration 368 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 7: which basically covers about half of the vaccines in this 369 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:54,440 Speaker 7: country for children who are either under insured or uninsured. 370 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 7: I don't think he could touch that. I mean, that's 371 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 7: really a congressional program. The Congress would have to agree 372 00:17:58,800 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 7: to that. 373 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 5: I can't imagine that happening. 374 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,120 Speaker 7: He could make it more difficult to get insurance generally 375 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:07,120 Speaker 7: for vaccines, making them more expensive for the consumer, that's possible. 376 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 7: I mean, I think he'll do everything he can to 377 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 7: lessen immunization rate. 378 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:11,439 Speaker 5: This is what he says. 379 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 7: I think that, you know, the parents should make decisions 380 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 7: well with their doctor and basically pull the CCC out 381 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:19,640 Speaker 7: of it. Let let us look at the real data. 382 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 7: And he's going to show us the real data because 383 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 7: only he knows the real data, because he's a conspiracy theorist, 384 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 7: it's hard to watch. I do think there'll be an 385 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 7: erosion in vaccine rates and regarding autism, it's fair to 386 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 7: ask the question, my child was fine, they got a vaccine, 387 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 7: Now they're not fine. Could the vaccine have done it? 388 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 7: That's an answerable question, and it's been answered. There's been 389 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 7: eighteen studies done in seven country on three con instead 390 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 7: have shown vaccines don't cause autism. It's question asked unanswered. 391 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 3: Is the medical community, you know, gearing up to fight back. 392 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,919 Speaker 7: Yes, but again, you know we're not good at this stuff. 393 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 7: I mean I think, well, fight will certainly fight back 394 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 7: the way we knew how, which is which is to 395 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 7: try and present all the day that we know supports vaccines. 396 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 7: But this is really becoming a political issue. So I 397 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 7: think it's going to have to have a political solution. 398 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 7: I think we're going to have to find those senators who, 399 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 7: assuming there is a confirmation hearing, that are reasonable enough 400 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,200 Speaker 7: to say that this is not the guy you want 401 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 7: in that position. 402 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 4: So after RFK was announced, the Governor of Colorado, Jared Polish, 403 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 4: sent a post on accident said he was excited because 404 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 4: of a vaccine choice and he helped push back in 405 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 4: Colorado when it came to this particular topic, can you 406 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 4: share your view as to why it's important for lots 407 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 4: of people to get vaccines, because if it is a 408 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 4: parent's choice, and you know that parent chooses to get 409 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:44,479 Speaker 4: their kid vaccinate against something, it's not necessarily that that 410 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,360 Speaker 4: kid is actually protected if other kids aren't protected. 411 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:49,640 Speaker 5: Exactly right. 412 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,479 Speaker 7: So if you step on a rusty nail and you 413 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 7: go to the doctor and you say I don't want 414 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 7: a tennis vaccine and you get tetanus, no one's going 415 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 7: to catch tennis from you. It's not a contagious disease. 416 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 7: Measles is, influenza is, and others are. So a choice 417 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 7: not to get a vaccine is a choice not only 418 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 7: for yourself, but for those with whom you come in contact. 419 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 7: And remember there are about nine million people in this country. 420 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,639 Speaker 7: You can't be vaccinated because they're getting chemotherapy for their 421 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 7: cancer or immute suppressive therapy for the autoimmune diseases. They 422 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 7: depend on those around them to protect them. Do we 423 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 7: have any responsibility for our neighbors? It is hard to 424 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 7: watch if you look what happened with Stars Kobe two, 425 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 7: those counties that were generally under vaccinated had much higher 426 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 7: rates of hospitalization and death than those counties that were 427 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 7: highly vaccinated, and that affects the people. If you're better 428 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 7: off actually being unvaccinated living in a highly vaccinated community 429 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,400 Speaker 7: than being vaccinated living in a highly unvaccinated unity. 430 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:42,239 Speaker 5: That's wild to hear. 431 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 4: What about the power of states and local municipalities over this? 432 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 4: For example, I have a kid in the New York 433 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,159 Speaker 4: City public school district and he has to get a 434 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 4: certain number of vaccines in order to actually be able 435 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 4: to go to school. That's a way for them to say, Okay, 436 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 4: well we are making this choice, or for the parent 437 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 4: to make this choice to vaccine back their kids against 438 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 4: these things. Isn't their power there at the local level. 439 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 7: Yeah, Well, mandates are state run. I mean, there's not 440 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,400 Speaker 7: federal mandates. I mean the school vaccine mandates are done 441 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 7: by states, and different states actually have different vaccines that 442 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 7: they mandate. But we've had school mandates from the books 443 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 7: for decades. There was about by nineteen sixty four to five, 444 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 7: about twenty five schools states had school mandates. By the 445 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 7: mid seventies, that went up to forty by nineteen eighty one, 446 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,440 Speaker 7: all fifty states had school vaccine mandates, and with that, 447 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 7: with the enforcement of school vaccine mandates, we went from 448 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 7: forty seven thousand cases of measles a year, seventy five 449 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 7: thousand cases of measles a year, one hundred and fifty 450 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,479 Speaker 7: deaths from measles a year, to eliminating that disease from 451 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 7: this country by the year two thousand. But it's come 452 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,399 Speaker 7: back in part because the critical percentage of parents are 453 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 7: choosing not to vaccinate their children. 454 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, numbers tell a story. 455 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,919 Speaker 2: Hey, listen, speaking of choice revaccination, You know, we do 456 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 2: have choices what to eat, We have choices. McDonald's is 457 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 2: clearly a favorite a president like Donald Trump. 458 00:21:58,320 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 3: During the campaign. 459 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,640 Speaker 2: He even helps serve cuss at one restaurant. I got 460 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:03,160 Speaker 2: to say, I'm a fan of their fries. 461 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 3: Full disclosure. 462 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,919 Speaker 2: We've seen Donald Trump and RFK Junior and Elon and 463 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 2: others chowing down on McDonald's together. 464 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 4: Oh, to be fair, rfk's holding the burger. He's not 465 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 4: chowing yet. 466 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 2: Yes, okay, so maybe he's just holding maybe the little 467 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,120 Speaker 2: osmosis going on there. Just got about thirty seconds here. 468 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 2: I do think about the role of Donald Trump, what 469 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 2: impact he might have in terms of his thinking about 470 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 2: health and medical care and all that good stuff. I mean, 471 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 2: we saw what he did during his first term with 472 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 2: COVID and getting a vaccine, So how do you think 473 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 2: his impact might be on what goes on in this area? 474 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 3: And again, just got about thirty seconds. 475 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 6: Now. 476 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,639 Speaker 7: I think he's hard to predict Donald Trump. But I 477 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 7: think that scene though, with him sitting there and Elon 478 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,160 Speaker 7: Musk and RFK Junior and Mike Johnson and others eating 479 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 7: eating Donald's, I think my take home from a message 480 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 7: from that scene was Donald Trump telling Robert Kennedy Jr. 481 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 7: You'll eat what I tell you to. 482 00:22:57,640 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 5: I believe. 483 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 4: Donald Trump Junior retweeted that and said the Make America 484 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 4: Healthy Again starts tomorrow. 485 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 2: So I gotta say I love a happy meal as well. 486 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 2: Doctor Paul Offit, this was a treat a pleasure. Thank 487 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 2: you so much for finding time for as doctor Paul Offfitt, 488 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:17,120 Speaker 2: director of the Vaccine Education Center the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. 489 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live 490 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: each weekday. He's starting at two pm Eastern on Apple 491 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 1: car Play and Android Auto. With the Bloomberg Business app. 492 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 493 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:34,399 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 494 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 4: Well, we talk a lot about the performance of the 495 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 4: S and P five hundred and the Nasdaq one hundred. 496 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,239 Speaker 4: By the way, the S and P five hundred up 497 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 4: more than twenty three percent so far this year, the 498 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 4: Nasdaq one hundred up more than twenty two percent. 499 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,159 Speaker 5: Large caps and megacaps have done well this year. We 500 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 5: know that small caps not so much. The RUST two. 501 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,439 Speaker 4: Thousand only up around fourteen percent so far this year. Well, 502 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 4: Mike Road thinks that could be about to change. He's 503 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 4: senior investment director at American Century Investments. They've got about 504 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 4: and sixty billion dollars in assets under management, forty five 505 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 4: billion of which is invested in actively managed small cap strategies. 506 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 4: Mike joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive at Brokers Studio. 507 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 5: Mike welcome. 508 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 1: Thanks. 509 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,120 Speaker 4: Single biggest catalyst in your view in the last few 510 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,880 Speaker 4: weeks for small caps or right now for small caps, 511 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:18,199 Speaker 4: what is it? 512 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 8: Yeah, it's say the Trump election for sure, and the 513 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 8: red wave. 514 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:22,679 Speaker 3: There was an election. 515 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 8: There was an election breaking news, I think, but that 516 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 8: really just through fuel on the fire that had already started. 517 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 8: Around July, you started to see a market rotation towards 518 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 8: small caps. What you have is expected earnings growth of 519 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 8: nearly eighteen percent next year. That's higher than midcaps, that's 520 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:45,399 Speaker 8: higher than large caps. Rather magnificent seven still growing a 521 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 8: twenty percent plus next year, but that's slowing, whereas you 522 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 8: have accelerating earnings for small caps, which have actually had 523 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 8: negative earnings the last two years. So you're coming out 524 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 8: of a small cap earnings recession and you're getting acceleration 525 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,200 Speaker 8: into next year, and we think that that's to be 526 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 8: a real growth driver for the ASA class. 527 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,919 Speaker 2: So the expectation what that the US economy is going 528 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,360 Speaker 2: to do better, maybe tariffs push back on foreign imports, 529 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 2: and so that's good for those smaller cap companies that 530 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 2: tend to be here in the US focused on the 531 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 2: US doing work in the US. 532 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:14,399 Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly. 533 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 8: So small caps get about eighty percent of the revenue 534 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,200 Speaker 8: from inside the United States. So if you're positive on 535 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,199 Speaker 8: the US, the best way to play that is with 536 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 8: small caps, and restoring has been a major positive catalyst 537 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:28,120 Speaker 8: for small caps in terms of again bringing manufacturing back 538 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 8: to the US, and with Trump getting elected and tariffs 539 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,200 Speaker 8: are likely kicking in. That's probably going to accelerate restoring 540 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 8: even more, and small caps are the best way to 541 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:37,479 Speaker 8: play that. 542 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 1: Mike. 543 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 2: One thing I wanted to ask you since the election, 544 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 2: what have you seen in terms of investment flows, Because 545 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,479 Speaker 2: if you look at the russell is up about two 546 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 2: percent since the election, it's pretty much the same as 547 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred. 548 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 3: Where has money been going into since the outcome? 549 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 8: Yeah, so there's been about eight billion that's flown in 550 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 8: float into the small cap etf since November. That's pretty good, 551 00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 8: but you actually saw ten billion in July when the 552 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 8: thought was that rates where we were starting a kind 553 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 8: of rate cut cycle. So you still haven't seen it. Now. 554 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 8: If you look at how large small caps are in 555 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,160 Speaker 8: terms of the percentage of the broader US equity market, 556 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,920 Speaker 8: still less than four percent. That's fifty percent below average, 557 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 8: and the last time it was this low was the 558 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,439 Speaker 8: nineteen thirties. So small caps have been a forgotten asset 559 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 8: class institutionally. And you get a lot of agreement that 560 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,440 Speaker 8: small caps are the place to be over the next 561 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 8: twelve months, but you haven't yet seen the flows. 562 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 3: I feel like we have. 563 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,600 Speaker 2: Been talking about everyone saying, here's the reason to buy 564 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 2: small caps for a. 565 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 5: Long time, say it, yeah's international. 566 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, And yet you're saying it's not like everybody's running in. 567 00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 8: Yeah, not yet. But I think that's actually, frankly a 568 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 8: good thing. It's kind of the empty room. I think 569 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,840 Speaker 8: now is a good time. There's a lot of expectation 570 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,640 Speaker 8: out there for earnings to accelerate next year. I think 571 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 8: you're going to have to start to see that now. 572 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 8: I was at a regional bank conference two weeks ago, 573 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:55,919 Speaker 8: was the day after Trump got elected. 574 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 3: Digital banks have done really much. 575 00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:01,199 Speaker 8: Better recently after two years of misery. Uh, and the 576 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 8: CEOs were literally was it literally? But like Jamie Diamond said, 577 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 8: dancing in the streets right doing the Trump dance because 578 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 8: they're they're most excited. 579 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 2: About someone in the newsroom who does the Trump dance 580 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 2: really well. 581 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 5: But I'm not gonna try. 582 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 3: We're going to table that. 583 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 8: But deregulation is going to really benefit regional banks, and 584 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 8: regional banks are also a big beneficiary of restoring right 585 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,680 Speaker 8: when these big new projects get started, you need to 586 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,239 Speaker 8: you need funding for those projects, and regional banks are 587 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,159 Speaker 8: really going to drive the growth in these kind of 588 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,639 Speaker 8: mini regional economies around the country. 589 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,679 Speaker 4: Like, what happens if the FED doesn't lower rates to 590 00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:37,520 Speaker 4: the extent that a lot of people think, they, well, 591 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 4: what happens if inflation doesn't come down to that two percent? 592 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 5: Crazily? 593 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 8: Yeah, that is that is the question I think that 594 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,959 Speaker 8: I think you have to ask the next question why? Okay, 595 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,959 Speaker 8: so why and what does the yield curve look like? 596 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 8: So if we have growth outpacing, if growth it starts 597 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:56,160 Speaker 8: to accelerate right three percent plus next year in part 598 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 8: due to Trump's policies, and inflation doesn't come right down 599 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 8: to two percent, I think that's okay, that's good news 600 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 8: is good news and growth Trump's no pun intended inflation, 601 00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 8: it's And then the second part of that is more 602 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,119 Speaker 8: about this shape of the yield curve. So, yes, rates 603 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,320 Speaker 8: not be there might not be eight rate cuts next year, 604 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 8: But if you have a steepening yield curve, that's a 605 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,720 Speaker 8: really good environment for small caps. We had an inverted 606 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 8: yield curve for two years. That's really tough for banks 607 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 8: and for other spread type businesses. And as that yield 608 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,640 Speaker 8: curve reinverts, that's just a really good environment. So I'd 609 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,960 Speaker 8: say focus more on the shape of the yield curve 610 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,199 Speaker 8: as opposed to the absolute interest rate number or how 611 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 8: many how many times the Fed will cut. 612 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,360 Speaker 3: So the flattening out that we've seen in the belly 613 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:39,480 Speaker 3: of the curve not great. 614 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:41,120 Speaker 5: Not great, not great. 615 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 8: But I think if you believe that we're going to 616 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 8: have an accelerating GDP over the next couple of years 617 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 8: because of Trump's policy, small caps are the biggest beneficiary 618 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 8: of that. 619 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,959 Speaker 2: But if we have an accelerating GDP and we have 620 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 2: too much money back in the economy, which leads to inflation, 621 00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 2: we know from Fitcher jpow we're not quite there yet. 622 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 2: I do think about the implications of that and the 623 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 2: impact that they could have on small caps or other sectors. 624 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it comes down to that, why do 625 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 8: we have inflation? Is there too much money flooding the systry? 626 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 3: Do you think we have too much inflation. 627 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 5: Right now or in the future? Yeah? 628 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 8: Yeah, right now, I think we're still we still have 629 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 8: that hangover from all the COVID spending going forward. If 630 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 8: you have there could be an increase in inflation coming 631 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 8: from the tariffs, right or the threat of tariffs, and 632 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 8: most of these companies will probably price that through to 633 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:31,400 Speaker 8: the end consumer. 634 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:32,440 Speaker 3: Or tax breaks some have said. 635 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 2: I mean, what's interesting is we had actually a listener, 636 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 2: a Bloomberg terminal users say, listen, we got to push 637 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 2: back a little bit on tariffs and the impact on inflation, 638 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,120 Speaker 2: because you know, maybe there have been economists and folks 639 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 2: on our air that have also said maybe that's not 640 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:46,880 Speaker 2: the case. 641 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 3: So we'll have to see on that one. 642 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 2: But I do think about tax cuts creating more velocity 643 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 2: in terms of money in the system, that could be Inflationay, 644 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 2: we just. 645 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 3: Heard that with our Josh Green. 646 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,360 Speaker 4: What about immigration policy and the labor market something I 647 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 4: think about a lot. According to the Center for Migration Studies, 648 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 4: there are about eleven point seven million undocumented. 649 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 5: People here in the US. 650 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,040 Speaker 4: If they get deported in a very short period of time, 651 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 4: there are gonna be a lot of people who are 652 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 4: looking to fill jobs. 653 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 5: Yeah. 654 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, a lot of managers looking to fill for sure. 655 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 4: I think I'm wondering what that does to the labor market. 656 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think the labor market is more in balance 657 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 8: today than it was just a couple of years ago. 658 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,760 Speaker 8: So yeah, the immigration, that's that is a potential risk 659 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:35,760 Speaker 8: to the inflation environment. But if you're getting that inflation 660 00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 8: because the economy is growing and there's more supply chains 661 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 8: being built out here in the US. I think that's 662 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,959 Speaker 8: a good thing if you get it in the fundamentals 663 00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,640 Speaker 8: of these small cap companies. If you're getting that ten percent, 664 00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,760 Speaker 8: fifteen twenty percent earnings growth, and all research shows that 665 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 8: dollars follows earnings growth, and I think that's going to 666 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 8: be viewed as a positive thing. 667 00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 2: Although voters have said they don't like inflation, and that 668 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 2: was a clear mandate. Hey, listen before you go, got 669 00:30:58,120 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 2: about a minute left here, Let's talk groups. 670 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 3: What do you like in this environment? Which you like? 671 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 2: Yeah? 672 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 8: I think banks mentioned it's uh, regionals. Yeah, they've had 673 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 8: they've had a bit of a run since Trump was elected, 674 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 8: but they're still trading at a discount to where they 675 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 8: were when Trump was in the office the first time. 676 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 8: And I think the sentiment is so negative. You have 677 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 8: commercial real estate fears which are unfounded so far, credit 678 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 8: cycle unfounded so far. They're kicking off pretty good dividends, 679 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,960 Speaker 8: and they're under owned by most institutional investors. So I 680 00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 8: think there's still room to run in regionals. 681 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 5: What about when it comes to some of the retailers 682 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 5: out there. Yeah, I think. 683 00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 3: Okay, so that's the reporting this week. 684 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, you know, if you look at the consumer, 685 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 8: I think we like to say it's trifurcated right that 686 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 8: the high end consumer is still doing really well. Low 687 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 8: in consumer if you look at the dollar stores, pretty tough. 688 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 8: But we believe that there's some areas that are bouncing 689 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:51,360 Speaker 8: off of the bottom. So if you look at boats, 690 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,160 Speaker 8: boats have fallen off a cliff. They're down fifty percent. 691 00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,400 Speaker 8: But we think there's a bottoming and we think we're 692 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 8: going to see improving numbers going forward. So it's all 693 00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,680 Speaker 8: about that acceleration. So we're getting that off of the bottom. Boats, 694 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 8: r v's potentially housing, We'll have to see what happens 695 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 8: with housing. That would be a good catalyst for small 696 00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 8: caps very quickly. 697 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 2: Energy you like it. If there's more drilling, there's more pumping, 698 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 2: more supply. Won't that be hurt? 699 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 5: Yeah? 700 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 3: Does that hurt the group just quickly? 701 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 8: No, it's and it goes back to that really to GDP, 702 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 8: if you have an acceleration in demand, it should offset that. 703 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 8: The other biggest Yeah, yeah, well, I think the biggest 704 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 8: thing that we look at is the quality levels at 705 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 8: these E n p's and the small cap side, they're 706 00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,080 Speaker 8: they're much more better run than they were five or 707 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:36,640 Speaker 8: ten years ago. 708 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 3: Micro good stuff come back soon. This is this is 709 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Business Week, mark. 710 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 5: A journal. 711 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:48,720 Speaker 2: Now about you let me drive? 712 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:53,320 Speaker 1: No, no, honey, please, I'll. 713 00:32:55,520 --> 00:33:00,400 Speaker 2: I want to drive. It's a good question time. 714 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:07,840 Speaker 1: This is the drive to the globe communing well, lad 715 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. 716 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,960 Speaker 2: All right, TikTok, everybody, Just about eighteen minutes left in 717 00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,440 Speaker 2: today's trading session here on this Monday, we've got like 718 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 2: games as you just heard from Charlie and the S 719 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 2: and P five hundred outperformance in the Nasdaq one hundred 720 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:24,440 Speaker 2: up about one hundred and forty five points, good for 721 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 2: gain of seven. 722 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,920 Speaker 3: Tens a percent. Wasn't so great for stocks last week. 723 00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 2: But again, earnings are going to be front and center 724 00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 2: with Nvidian, a few others reporting us. 725 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, we're gonna hear from the retailers, many of the retailers, 726 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 4: so we've got a good read on the consumer. Let's 727 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 4: see what Jeff McLain has to say about this. He's 728 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,440 Speaker 4: a ceover at Solidarity Wealth. It's a wealth management firm 729 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 4: based in Utah. They've got about six hundred million dollars 730 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,440 Speaker 4: in assets under management. Jeff joined us here in the 731 00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:49,480 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. I'm wondering what's top of mind 732 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 4: for your clients right now when you're out there talking 733 00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 4: to them. 734 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,600 Speaker 5: What are they asking you? What do they want to know? 735 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,320 Speaker 9: Yeah, I think a lot of it is election related. 736 00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 9: I mean, what does the next four years look like 737 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 9: in the excitement or nervousness depending on the political backgrounds 738 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,320 Speaker 9: of where they're looking at the markets From our perspective, 739 00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:08,440 Speaker 9: I mean, I think in either case, you were going 740 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,880 Speaker 9: to have some consistency of the current administration continuing on 741 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 9: or Trump. We've we've kind of seen the show before. 742 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,120 Speaker 9: It'll be different people involved, but we kind of know 743 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:18,920 Speaker 9: what's coming, and you're seeing that a little bit in 744 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,600 Speaker 9: the market of a bit of steadiness associated with it. 745 00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,600 Speaker 9: You're essentially going to have divided government with the house 746 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,800 Speaker 9: being so tight, it'll be incredibly tight if anything in 747 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 9: the house. You think so, Yeah, I think as you 748 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 9: talk about the people he's named, they're going to have 749 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:36,560 Speaker 9: to give up their spots in the house. 750 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 5: You have a few lives. 751 00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,879 Speaker 2: I wonder if there's somebody with a whiteboard said hey, wait, 752 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:42,720 Speaker 2: his name is Speaker Johnson. 753 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 9: Yeah, and I don't think they're being that strategic and 754 00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 9: so divided government's good for the markets, right, nothing's crazy 755 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:49,479 Speaker 9: going to happen. 756 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 4: I would think they are being strategic because they want to, 757 00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 4: you know, and that's stuff done. Jusie Wilds, the incoming 758 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:57,279 Speaker 4: chief of Staff, made the point at a fundraiser last 759 00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,880 Speaker 4: week in Las Vegas that was basically like this, according 760 00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:02,920 Speaker 4: to New York Times, that hey, we got two years 761 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,840 Speaker 4: to get everything done because the history, you know, books 762 00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,399 Speaker 4: show that if you have a trifecta in government, it's 763 00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 4: not forever. 764 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,600 Speaker 9: Yeah, that's true. But at the end of the day, 765 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:14,759 Speaker 9: special elections that are going to have to come up 766 00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 9: to replace those seats. Republicans do terrible in special elections historically, 767 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:21,480 Speaker 9: and so I think at the end of the day 768 00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,279 Speaker 9: the House will be divided, which again I think is good. 769 00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:28,040 Speaker 9: Nothing crazy can happen if you start with a proposition 770 00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,279 Speaker 9: like I do, that most government officials are not great 771 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,920 Speaker 9: people and they're going to trade in their own self interest. 772 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:35,239 Speaker 9: Divide is great. 773 00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:40,000 Speaker 5: They can't do anything. There's a lot of places I 774 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:41,400 Speaker 5: could go with that, because. 775 00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,600 Speaker 4: Where do you want to go, well, is that a 776 00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,400 Speaker 4: concern to you in terms of the way that the 777 00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:48,840 Speaker 4: government has been run in the way that the government 778 00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,279 Speaker 4: potentially will be run in the new administration. There are 779 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,680 Speaker 4: a lot of folks very close to the president who 780 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:56,279 Speaker 4: have a lot of money. 781 00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,400 Speaker 9: Yeah, and I would say that's always true, right, Whenever 782 00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 9: there's power, money is attracted to it, and so that's 783 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:03,960 Speaker 9: always been the case. I think long term is that 784 00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:04,440 Speaker 9: a problem? 785 00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:04,759 Speaker 1: Yeah? 786 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,800 Speaker 9: Short term, no, I don't see any issues there. I 787 00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,600 Speaker 9: do think some of the changes they're going to make 788 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:14,440 Speaker 9: do help certain sectors over others. Right. RFK Junior Pharma 789 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:18,759 Speaker 9: has obviously traded down since that name was nominated to 790 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:19,320 Speaker 9: the position. 791 00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 5: That's probably justified. We'll see if he gets confirmed. 792 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:23,200 Speaker 9: Yeah, that's a big if. 793 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:27,279 Speaker 2: All right, So the week after the election, I'm going 794 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,120 Speaker 2: back to not last week. Last week's stocks were down 795 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:30,440 Speaker 2: about two percent. If I'm looking at the S and 796 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,000 Speaker 2: P five found to the prior week, they're up about 797 00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:33,960 Speaker 2: four point seven percent. So we've seen a little bit 798 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,080 Speaker 2: of a correct but not all the way back. I mean, 799 00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,239 Speaker 2: are what we're seeing right now is all right, some enthusiasm, 800 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,120 Speaker 2: but we don't really know what policies are ultimately going 801 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,160 Speaker 2: to be put into effect. So hold on, everybody, kind 802 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,480 Speaker 2: of slow your role and let's see. Yeah, it's a 803 00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,080 Speaker 2: long h Is there anything that you feel like you 804 00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,279 Speaker 2: can bank on right now in terms of a Trump 805 00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 2: administration what it means for playing the equity term? 806 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,239 Speaker 9: Yeah, from a long term perspective, all that right now 807 00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 9: is noise. From a short term trading perspective, volatility is 808 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,239 Speaker 9: going to continue spike with every new announcement, depending on 809 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,320 Speaker 9: because he's not going to nominate an you know, steady, 810 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:07,880 Speaker 9: keep it as it is type person. He's just not 811 00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:11,200 Speaker 9: And so every new announcement's going to drive volatility and. 812 00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:13,080 Speaker 3: A specifically it kind of did in the first term. 813 00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:14,319 Speaker 5: Yeah, and it did, but. 814 00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,440 Speaker 9: You're going to see that with the Treasury whoever he 815 00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,320 Speaker 9: names in the cat fighting that's involved right now, whoever 816 00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,360 Speaker 9: he names, you're going to see some trades based on 817 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,239 Speaker 9: whoever that is, depending on if it's someone from a 818 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 9: traditional finance background or is it someone outside right an 819 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,160 Speaker 9: unknown to the financial world. 820 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,160 Speaker 2: I got to say these conversations. I like macro, but 821 00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,080 Speaker 2: it's like, okay, so what do we do? Yeah, because 822 00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,279 Speaker 2: if you've got a portfolio you're thinking about it. I 823 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:40,480 Speaker 2: think about investments. 824 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:41,440 Speaker 3: I'm like, what do I do do? 825 00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,520 Speaker 2: I like, you know, things have had a nice little 826 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:45,279 Speaker 2: run this year, but is it going to get a 827 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:46,319 Speaker 2: little sketchy next year? 828 00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 3: We just don't know. So what do you say? You are, 829 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,680 Speaker 3: you know, responsible for managing the wealth of your clients. 830 00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:54,920 Speaker 3: What do you do right now? 831 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:59,320 Speaker 2: Have you made any changes to portfolios since the election outcome? 832 00:37:59,520 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 1: Yes? 833 00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:00,440 Speaker 9: Yes? 834 00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:01,520 Speaker 3: What have what have you done? 835 00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,640 Speaker 9: And so you know, I think part of that is 836 00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:07,000 Speaker 9: trimming allocations in certain segments and areas that aren't going 837 00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:11,120 Speaker 9: to do well. So, generally speaking, defense could be a problem. If, 838 00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,920 Speaker 9: for example, you own Lockheed Martin, right, they are going 839 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:17,240 Speaker 9: to be a target of what the VEC and Elon 840 00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,200 Speaker 9: Musk are doing. They're no bid contracts, probably not going 841 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,520 Speaker 9: to be looking good here in the next couple months. 842 00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:27,000 Speaker 9: If Elon Musk and his team are successful. Another group 843 00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:27,440 Speaker 9: that could be. 844 00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,840 Speaker 2: Until senators and members of Congress and House reps saying. 845 00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,759 Speaker 5: By the way, our constituents are pretty upset about this. 846 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,839 Speaker 9: Yeah, yeah, there is part of that. But remember, from 847 00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:41,200 Speaker 9: an administrative law perspective, presidencies have enormous power to do 848 00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,640 Speaker 9: things independent of Congress. And both administrations, and so they 849 00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:49,000 Speaker 9: can drive significant change just changing the no bid contract 850 00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:53,600 Speaker 9: thing alone to ban any no bid contract. That's a problem. 851 00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:55,040 Speaker 3: What does that mean? So nobody can bid? 852 00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:55,359 Speaker 5: Right? 853 00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,200 Speaker 9: So they directed directly to Lockheed Martin. If you win 854 00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,759 Speaker 9: this contract and it's not an open process for that 855 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:04,600 Speaker 9: government contract, which are billions and billions. 856 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,520 Speaker 3: Of dollars, you've seen opposite of what it's You've. 857 00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,279 Speaker 9: Seen Elon Musk fight this from his side of saying, hey, 858 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,520 Speaker 9: we can do these things. We're doing the way cheaper 859 00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:14,160 Speaker 9: than NASA and all these other things. But yet NASA 860 00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,640 Speaker 9: is getting these or Boeing is getting these gigantic contracts 861 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:18,520 Speaker 9: and are not performing. 862 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:20,480 Speaker 3: So tripping defense, what else have you been doing for 863 00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:20,920 Speaker 3: your clients? 864 00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:26,040 Speaker 9: I think Boeing's and although I agree with their CEO change, 865 00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,480 Speaker 9: I think that's a good move. I think long term 866 00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,440 Speaker 9: Boeing could be good. From a short term perspective, Boeing's 867 00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,960 Speaker 9: problematic for a variety of reasons. That has been and 868 00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,319 Speaker 9: I would argue it's going to continue to be problematic 869 00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:39,960 Speaker 9: from a go forward. I think there's also some trading 870 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,880 Speaker 9: opportunities and what I would call the anti ESG trade, 871 00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,880 Speaker 9: Those kind of industries that aren't favored in the EESG 872 00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,040 Speaker 9: where that's at times defense like pell and Teer, which 873 00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:54,200 Speaker 9: will probably be a winner from this administration. Oil and gas, 874 00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,520 Speaker 9: although not broadly like your Exon or Chevron, But think 875 00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:01,160 Speaker 9: of the pipeline type of producer and those actually pulling 876 00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:02,400 Speaker 9: the minerals out of the ground. 877 00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:04,640 Speaker 5: Even if we see a decline in demand. 878 00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:06,440 Speaker 9: Or yeah, I think from a long term they have 879 00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:10,000 Speaker 9: some great opportunities because you're more likely to find value 880 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,480 Speaker 9: there because the huge part of return is what you're 881 00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:17,520 Speaker 9: buying it for. Because of the disfavored nature of those industries, 882 00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:20,600 Speaker 9: you can get better valuations than the broader market, and 883 00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,040 Speaker 9: so over time that's going to play out. Even if 884 00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:25,640 Speaker 9: some people want to hold their nose at it, we 885 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,560 Speaker 9: still need oil, it funds just about everything in our society. 886 00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,319 Speaker 2: You're the second person today that is looking at small caps. 887 00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,040 Speaker 2: Forgive me only about twenty five seconds. You like small caps, 888 00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:36,960 Speaker 2: put money there, or you are putting money there. 889 00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,680 Speaker 9: We are, and I like it from a go forward perspective. 890 00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,839 Speaker 9: You have to be careful, right, not all small caps 891 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,480 Speaker 9: are created equal, but yeah, small caps can be an 892 00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:49,120 Speaker 9: incredible opportunity right now based on valuation simply compared to 893 00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:49,720 Speaker 9: large caps. 894 00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:51,640 Speaker 3: All right, we gotta leave it there. Of course we 895 00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,360 Speaker 3: had more time. Good stuff, come back. Thank you really appreciate. 896 00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,239 Speaker 2: Jeff McLain's chief executive officer at Solidary Wealth. 897 00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:58,760 Speaker 3: As we said, they're based in Utah. 898 00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:03,000 Speaker 9: Yes, right now, all right, ski season is here, come 899 00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:03,960 Speaker 9: to Utah, skier. 900 00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:05,399 Speaker 3: Have you ever ski in Utah? 901 00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:07,600 Speaker 5: Of course, of course he has a crazy flight. 902 00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:14,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 903 00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,920 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday 904 00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:21,399 Speaker 1: afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 905 00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,879 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. 906 00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,880 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 907 00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,120 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal