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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: John Rodgers, Founder, chairman and co chief executive officer of

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Speaker 2: Aerial Investments, joining us here at Bloomberg Investor.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: We've got a lot going on.

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Speaker 3: We appreciate your patience.

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Speaker 2: I want to go back to something. How are you,

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Speaker 2: first of all.

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Speaker 3: Doing okay dealing with all this potility craziness? Well? Is

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Speaker 3: it crazy? John?

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Speaker 2: I love talking to folks like you. You guys have

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Speaker 2: been investing for a long time. You've seen a lot

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Speaker 2: of market cycles like there are you know, how do

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Speaker 2: you kind of factor in this one and the stuff

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Speaker 2: that feels like every morning we can wake up and

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Speaker 2: there can either be something out of Washington that really

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Speaker 2: impacts the trade, and then there are days it doesn't.

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Speaker 3: So how do you.

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Speaker 2: Kind of work all that into strategy?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think of the forty three years noise if

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Speaker 1: you will, Yeah, I mean the forty three is of aeril.

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Speaker 1: We've had lots of ups and downs in nineteen eighty

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Speaker 1: seven crash of course, wait and nine financial crisis, but

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Speaker 1: this is the first time we're seemed like there where

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Speaker 1: sort of we're making this crisis happen, you know, making

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Speaker 1: a conscious decision to make policy decisions, whether it's the

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Speaker 1: tariffs or now whether it's the war, and that's causing

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Speaker 1: all this drama and all this angst, and that's something

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Speaker 1: that's unusual and different for us.

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Speaker 2: How do you trade that?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think, on.

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Speaker 1: The one hand, you trade it is that we know

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Speaker 1: that President Trump cares about the markets. He sees that

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Speaker 1: as a scorecard. So the one positive thing you can

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Speaker 1: pluck out is that eventually he figures out a way

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Speaker 1: to adjust to get things back to a calm state eventually.

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Speaker 1: But you just hope he doesn't go too far, you know,

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Speaker 1: one more time, and stretch and do something that really

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Speaker 1: he can't pull it back.

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Speaker 4: You know, I'm curious about your view on this that

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Speaker 4: as it does not relate to markets. It sounded like

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Speaker 4: you were saying that we've entered a new paradigm, at

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Speaker 4: least with the decisions that this administration is making. I'm

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Speaker 4: wondering how you're looking at that. We understand that what

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Speaker 4: the President wants to achieve with tariffs, I would not

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Speaker 4: say I understand what he wants to achieve Right now

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Speaker 4: with Iran, we're still waiting to hear exactly what the

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Speaker 4: US wants to achieve there. But how do you view this,

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Speaker 4: not necessarily with regard to markets.

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Speaker 3: Well, what I worry about is that.

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Speaker 1: I ran to something that's extraordinarily painful for America or

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Speaker 1: another part of the world, as they fight back and

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Speaker 1: feel like they have to defend their honor, buildies do

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Speaker 1: something that will be we'll all have a hard hard.

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Speaker 3: Time living with over the long run.

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Speaker 1: So we all saw what happened when the World Trade

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Speaker 1: Center collapsed, and all the trauma and drama and extraordinary

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Speaker 1: heartbreak from that situation, and you just hope that nothing

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Speaker 1: like that happens again ever in the United States or

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Speaker 1: in our friendly countries.

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Speaker 2: Got to say, I went right there after this happened,

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Speaker 2: and that's what I thought about retaliation. Any of us

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Speaker 2: who were here in New York during nine to eleven

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Speaker 2: remember it like it was yesterday, and it does make

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Speaker 2: me a little scared. And I'm not an alarmist, but

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Speaker 2: it did make me think, Okay, what's the retaliation of

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Speaker 2: all of this. We're going to set that aside.

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Speaker 4: I can we can shift back to markets, Carol, we

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Speaker 4: can shift back to market.

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Speaker 2: I want to go back to something you said actually

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Speaker 2: in January and I was doing some read in on this,

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Speaker 2: and you said the US will likely slide into a

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Speaker 2: small recession at the end of the year. Stock market

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Speaker 2: will drop as average income consumers struggle with high living costs.

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Speaker 2: And this was I think at the Executive's Club of

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Speaker 2: Chicago's annual Outlook event, and you talked about the down

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Speaker 2: maybe declining fifteen to twenty percent this year. But it

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Speaker 2: and it also got into this dichotomy which I think

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Speaker 2: really increasingly. I know it bothers US wealthy consumers doing okay,

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Speaker 2: so many other consumers are not. So talk to me

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Speaker 2: about that. Do you still feel this way about maybe

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Speaker 2: we see some kind of small recession.

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Speaker 1: I still do. I've never seen anything quite like it.

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of people have been talking about this,

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Speaker 1: but we're You're right when people are still going and

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Speaker 1: spending money on cruise ships or going to Las Vegas

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Speaker 1: for experiences, doing things that are really the wealthy people

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Speaker 1: can do, right, But the average American is really really struggling.

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Speaker 1: You know, I go to mcdonald'sretty much every day, and

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Speaker 1: you know, you see how much it costs to you know,

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Speaker 1: buy your drink and your French frise and what happens,

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Speaker 1: and you realize that ordinary Americans are having a hard

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Speaker 1: time covering the cost of just day to day life

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Speaker 1: in America. And I think that's a real challenge for

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Speaker 1: our economy, a real challenge for certain industries.

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Speaker 4: It's the so called K shaped economy. Is something that

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Speaker 4: we talk about a lot, and we think about a lot.

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Speaker 4: Are there policy proposals or are their policies that the

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Speaker 4: US government could enact that would make the gap between

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Speaker 4: the very wealthy and the poor, or that would bring

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Speaker 4: back the middle class? I think is something that we

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Speaker 4: talk about a lot too. Is it something that you

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Speaker 4: think the free market can solve? How do we get

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Speaker 4: out of this?

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Speaker 1: I think the free market will will solve it. You know,

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Speaker 1: we America always goes to extremes and things ultimately get

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Speaker 1: back to back to normal. Warren Buffett says, you know,

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Speaker 1: our capuist democracy is the best system ever invented, and

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Speaker 1: so we'll ultimately put the right pace people in place.

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Speaker 1: Governmental shift and change and people will be able to

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Speaker 1: get to a place that I think will bring back

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Speaker 1: a better life for folks from Middle America. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's really really important. I think keeping interest rates reasonable,

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Speaker 1: keeping inflation low is really really important creating the other

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Speaker 1: tax policies that are fair and equitable. So I think

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Speaker 1: we'll get there. It takes a while, but we'll be

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Speaker 1: on our way back. And I think we're in that

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Speaker 1: process now.

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Speaker 3: So you're optimistic.

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Speaker 1: I'm optimistic that we will create the wealth gap in

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Speaker 1: our country will start to diminish over time.

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Speaker 2: So when I look at I'm going to talk a

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Speaker 2: little bit about the investment environment. We saw broadening out

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Speaker 2: certainly in terms of where investors were placing some bets here.

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Speaker 2: Where do you see some mispricing within the market where

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Speaker 2: you think that that presents some opportunities for investors.

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Speaker 1: I think right now the financial services companies are what

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Speaker 1: I think have gotten may be extremely cheap. They've gotten,

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Speaker 1: you know, very very worrisome about what's happening with private credit,

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Speaker 1: as we all know what you guys are reporting on

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Speaker 1: and talking about all the time. But I think it's

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Speaker 1: over done. I saw David rubens Sein speak last week.

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Speaker 1: He was interviewed by our chairman, Charlie Barbrinskoy. You know,

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Speaker 1: in his optimism around about Carlisle, I thought was striking,

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Speaker 1: and I think they've gotten sort of a hit with

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Speaker 1: what's happened in private credit everywhere.

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Speaker 3: Even though they have a small.

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Speaker 1: Exposure to private credit, there's also been this huge concern

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Speaker 1: around private equity that people won't come back, that you know,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be and harder to raise funds. I think

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Speaker 1: its interest rates get lower. Companies that have the kind

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Speaker 1: of brand that Carlisle has will be able to do

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Speaker 1: extremely extremely well. And then secondarily, a company like Lizard,

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Speaker 1: you know, one of the world's best investment banking firms.

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Speaker 1: Peter Orzag has done a great job and getting that

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Speaker 1: company on track. It's moving in the right direction and

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Speaker 1: being one of the best investment bankers. They're going to

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Speaker 1: benefit from all the deals they're going to happen in

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Speaker 1: this deregulated environment. It's a really a great opportunity for

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Speaker 1: companies to buy, merge, do things that are right for shareholders.

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Speaker 2: It's really kind of refreshing. I haven't heard you say AI.

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Speaker 2: Where does that fit in?

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Speaker 3: Is that it's not a value playing right.

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Speaker 2: Where how does that factor in?

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Speaker 3: Like?

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Speaker 2: Because I do think the AI trade has evolved over

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Speaker 2: the last two three years in terms of where investors

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Speaker 2: want to place their bets and now we're talking a

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Speaker 2: lot more about inference and agentic AI and kind of

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Speaker 2: where that's going. But I think we still don't know

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Speaker 2: a lot.

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Speaker 1: We still don't and we're working really really hard on it.

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Speaker 1: At Ariel. We're using some of the top academic minds

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Speaker 1: at the University of Chicago to help guide us as

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Speaker 1: we think through which industries will be the most disrupted,

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Speaker 1: which ones will not be disrupted, and where the maybe

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Speaker 1: the fear is overdone. So like for us, one of

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Speaker 1: our favorite stocks is Jones Lange Lassalle JLLL. You know,

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Speaker 1: real estate broker, which is still an important business. It's

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Speaker 1: a complicated business. If you're a CEO trying to move

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Speaker 1: hundreds of people from one office power to another, one

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Speaker 1: campus to another, you need a great broker who can

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Speaker 1: help you see and have the insights that are there.

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Speaker 1: So I think AI helps to make them more efficient

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Speaker 1: and more effective. AI is not going to replace that

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Speaker 1: real estate broker the way some people are afraid of.

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Speaker 4: So much of the concentration literally and when it comes

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Speaker 4: to coverage of the market has been makea caap tech

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Speaker 4: names and I'm wondering if it's possible in your view,

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Speaker 4: I think I know what you're gonna say, but if

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Speaker 4: it's possible in your view to outperform make a cap

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Speaker 4: tech or the S and P five hundred by excluding

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Speaker 4: those from a portfolio, by finding those value names.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think so as we. You know, I've been

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Speaker 1: very public. I think the large cap growth stocks have

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Speaker 1: gotten way, way, way too expensive. Everyone's fallen in love

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Speaker 1: with that trade for quite a long time. But I've

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Speaker 1: seen this happen time and time again in my forty

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Speaker 1: three years in Ariel, but also saw it throughout history.

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Speaker 1: You know, the nifty fifties, you know during the seventy

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Speaker 1: the nifty fifty stocks, you saw it during what.

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Speaker 3: Happened in the Go go twenties.

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Speaker 1: People just fall in love with the sector and think

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Speaker 1: it's just going to go up and up forever. And

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Speaker 1: the small stocks neglected, they get misunderstood, they're not as

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Speaker 1: well followed, and so opportunities it gets created because everyone's

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Speaker 1: falling in love with this hot, shiny, shiny.

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Speaker 3: Dollar out there, and you think that's happening right now,

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Speaker 3: I really really do. Up until most recently.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I've seen now that the Palanteers of the

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Speaker 1: world and others have finally started to have some of

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Speaker 1: their come up, and it reminds me of what happened

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Speaker 1: during the turn of the century when the Internet bubble

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Speaker 1: finally burst. So you start to see some signs that

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Speaker 1: the world is coming back to rationality and people are

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Speaker 1: realizing some opportunities in their smaller names.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to the investment environment, are you anticipating

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Speaker 2: that investors need to be thinking about it's going to

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Speaker 2: be a higher rate environment going forward, and so you've

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Speaker 2: got to think about that and what it means in

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Speaker 2: terms of evaluations.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think I'm more optimistic about rates. I think

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Speaker 1: they they they'll go lower, they they go lower, I

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Speaker 1: really do. I think that the new FED chairman is

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Speaker 1: clearly someone who's going to want to make the president happy.

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Speaker 1: He's going to do everything he can to ben the

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Speaker 1: will of the federal reserved.

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Speaker 2: Doesn't that make you nervous though, if it's not fundamentally.

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Speaker 1: Based long term, it makes me nervous, Okay, But I

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Speaker 1: do think of the short to intermediate term. If it

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Speaker 1: keep rates lower, it's always good. Low rates are always

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Speaker 1: positive for the markets, And of course there's some some

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Speaker 1: things will come back to haunt us because of it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but I think that's more longer term and the short term.

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Speaker 1: I think this will be something that will be a

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Speaker 1: help the market's day where it needs to be and

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Speaker 1: be sort of a tailwind for the markets.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't sound like when we you know, one of

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Speaker 2: the narratives it felt like we were coming into was

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Speaker 2: I mean, think about Biden before President Biden, before President

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Speaker 2: Trump won the election, like the US was the best

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Speaker 2: place to invest. When President Trump came in a year ago, again,

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Speaker 2: like the US market was the place to invest, and

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Speaker 2: then we were just thinking about the US being uninvestable

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Speaker 2: like that became a narrative, and.

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Speaker 4: To a certain extent, even though the US markets did

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Speaker 4: well last year, there was a lot of underperformance compared

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Speaker 4: to global markets for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Is that is that something you think a lot about,

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Speaker 2: or that we are seeing investors start to diversify away

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Speaker 2: from the US market or that's impossible because of how

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Speaker 2: deep and how liquid the US market is.

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Speaker 1: I think it's really really hard to divers file away

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Speaker 1: from the US markets in any meaningful way. We still

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Speaker 1: have the deepest economic system, the most successful economic system,

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Speaker 1: the best universities in the world. You know, we're the

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Speaker 1: United States of America and even though there's been all

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Speaker 1: this drama and trauma right now, Yeah, ultimately people want

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Speaker 1: to come back to the country where you can count

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Speaker 1: on our currency, you can count on our democracy and

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Speaker 1: the regulatory environment that we have, and just all the

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Speaker 1: great success we've had Wall Street to Silicon Valley.

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Speaker 3: I think that America is the best. So this is

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Speaker 3: just a blip, I think.

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Speaker 2: So it's just it's because it's interesting. I think we

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Speaker 2: try to figure out the lasting impact of the last

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Speaker 2: year or so. Well.

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Speaker 4: One thing that we're trying to figure out is the

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Speaker 4: impact that integration or a lack thereof, we'll have on

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Speaker 4: the economy.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 4: If we think about in recent years Americans not having

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Speaker 4: enough babies, and one of the ways that has been

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Speaker 4: supplemented and we've been able to avoid turning into a

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Speaker 4: Japan for example, is because we have had people come

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Speaker 4: to the United States and increase economic activity that.

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Speaker 3: We wouldn't have had had we not had that.

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Speaker 4: And I'm wondering how we have to adjust our expectations

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Speaker 4: for a world that is increasingly I was gonna say isolationists,

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Speaker 4: but we're not necessarily saying that right now, but one

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Speaker 4: that looks inward toward itself more than looking outwards.

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Speaker 2: And you only have thirty seconds.

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Speaker 3: I'm sorry, that was that was my bag.

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Speaker 1: Well, I just think in this business, the ability to

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Speaker 1: see the future is the most important thing, and so

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Speaker 1: if you look out two to three or four years,

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Speaker 1: we will be past this crisis, this isolationism, the challenges

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Speaker 1: that we face. One way or another, you're going to

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Speaker 1: have a new president, you're going to have a new government,

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Speaker 1: and I think America will still be in a strong,

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Speaker 1: strong place.

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Speaker 2: I kind of love this, John, Thank you so much,

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Speaker 2: really appreciate it. John Rogers of course founder, chairman and

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Speaker 2: Cosey you have aerial investments