WEBVTT - The Numbers Behind the Maduro Arrest: Polling Data, Military Intervention, Immigration, and America’s Cultural Shift 0:00:04.720 --> 0:00:06.840 Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grodski. Thank 0:00:06.880 --> 0:00:08.920 you guys for being here again. I have to tell 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:11.880 you that I love it when I see some data 0:00:12.280 --> 0:00:15.159 and I make a prediction in an opinion based upon 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:17.759 the data, and then more information comes out and approves 0:00:17.800 --> 0:00:20.400 me correct. And that is what's happened with what I 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:24.680 told you guys on last show on Monday about Venezuela. 0:00:24.840 --> 0:00:26.920 If you remember, on that last episode, I was saying 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:30.080 to you that early polling information looked like most Americans 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:33.720 didn't have strong feelings about the raids outside of how 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:35.839 they felt about Trump. Like, if you like Trump, you 0:00:35.920 --> 0:00:38.160 support the raids. If you didn't like Trump, you didn't 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:41.800 like the raids the arrest of Dictator Nicholas Monduro, but 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:43.760 if you but a lot of people were kind of 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:46.599 like ambivalent to form policy is not a big issue 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:50.040 for them. I said that based upon early polling information 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:54.360 at the time. Now new information has come out, Basically 0:00:54.360 --> 0:00:57.880 sitting there and saying, yeah, most Americans are really tied 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:00.240 to how they feel a Trump with the access option 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:03.640 of Hispanics. Hispanics have a stronger opinion, especially if they 0:01:03.640 --> 0:01:06.280 are Venezuela and our Cuban That is the big caveat, 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:09.960 but overall it falls under partisan lines. Let's break it down. 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:12.480 So new poll came out from the Washington Post. It 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.559 was released on Tuesday, and it found that forty percent 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:19.520 of Americans supported the raid the arrest of Venezuelan dictator 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:23.760 Nicholas Mdurou, seventy four percent of the being Republicans, thirteen 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:27.160 percent of Democrats, thirty four percent of Independence, forty two 0:01:27.240 --> 0:01:30.320 percent opposed the raid, seventy six percent of Democrats, ten 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:33.839 percent of Republicans, and forty two percent of independence. Basically, 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:37.280 the Democrats and Republicans mirror each other, right, It's strictly 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:41.240 a partisanship, almost entirely Independence, lean a little against it, 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:43.800 but not that heavily. And independence. Once again, it's hard 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.600 to pull independence because a lot of them usually always 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:48.640 vote one way or the other. They either always vote 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:50.560 Democrats they say they're an independent, or they alway vote 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:54.560 Republican they say they're independent, but they're pretty partisan. So anyway, 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:59.800 very very evenly split. Eighteen percent had really no opinion 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:02.360 in putting twenty four percent of independence, which I think 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:06.000 a lot of people are in this country, not a majority, 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:09.079 but a big slice really don't have an opinion. They're 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:13.480 not as highly informed on Venezuelan policy. Two. And that 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:16.200 follows a similar poll that Washington Post pole, which I'll 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:18.760 come back to in a second. That follows another poll 0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:21.480 that also came out on Tuesday from Reuters, and the 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:25.600 Reuter's poll found that thirty seven percent of Americans supported 0:02:25.639 --> 0:02:29.240 the arrest of Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro, thirty eight percent 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.839 oppose it, almost exactly the same as the Washington Post 0:02:31.919 --> 0:02:36.200 lower numbers, but follows the same trajectory. Now, the Ruters 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:40.720 happened to have polled this question several months ago, asking 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:45.880 would you support a future military intervention into Venezuela, And 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:49.600 that poll had forty seven percent of pose twenty one 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:52.840 percent support. Because I think when you hear when in 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:58.519 an American hearers about a military operation, they think Iraq, Afghanistan. 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:00.880 They were thinking, we're going to lose thousands of people, 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:02.960 We're going to have a decade of violence, We're going 0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:05.639 to spend hundreds of billions of dollars for very ungrateful 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:07.320 people who will end up coming to our own country 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:10.440 as refugees. Right, the fact that it was a fall 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:13.560 is the executed campaign where no one died, it didn't cost, 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:16.840 you know, a trillion dollars. I think that that changed 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:21.480 people's opinion about it pretty pretty spectacular. After the arrest 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:25.440 of Nicholas Mondoro, the poll found that thirty seven percent 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:28.920 supported the operation thirty percent of pose. That's a twenty 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:34.040 five point swing in favor of the operation after it 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:38.280 was executed. Because of this perception that show is it 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:42.160 was a very successful thing. There was another poll taken 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:45.320 by company by Aliga Survey. I had not heard of 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:47.280 them before, so I don't know how accurate they are, 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:51.200 but Alika Survey and it asked Latin Americans how they 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:54.680 felt about the raid. Eighty seven percent of Costa Ricans, 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:58.040 seventy seven seventy eight percent of Chilean, seventy seven percent 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:01.640 of Colombian, seventy six percent of Donians, seventy four percent 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:06.720 of Peruvians. All of Latin America wildly approves, wildly approves 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:09.600 of it. The only country where it's on the margin 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:13.680 is Mexico, which remember, voted for a socialist president not 0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:16.080 that long ago. But aside from Mexico, the rest of 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:19.560 Latin America very supportive of what President Trump has done. 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:22.600 You know, not like the Europeans or anybody else, but 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:25.680 Latin Americans who have seen Nicholas Maduro being a dictator 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:27.840 really really were happy that he was arrested in his 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:31.080 face in his trial. So speaking of the trial, let's 0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:33.680 go back to the Washington postpall that I talked about earlier. 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:37.280 Fifty percent of Americans say that Nicholas Maduro should go 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.960 to trial for drug charges. Right, A lot of Americans 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:46.440 don't have a very deep understanding of who Nicholas Menduro is, 0:04:46.640 --> 0:04:49.440 or his government or anything, especially when you compare him 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:52.960 to like a foreign leader like Xijimping or putin somebody 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:56.000 who's in the news constantly. You know, Nicholas Mondoro is 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:59.200 not at the forefront of many Americans minds. I'll just 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:02.520 say like that, But fifty percent still believe that he 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:04.920 is he should go on trial, because, after all, he 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:07.000 is a dictator of a narco state. He's not exactly 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:11.000 mister Rogers. That includes seventy nine percent of Republicans, forty 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:14.240 two percent of Independence and a plurality of Democrats with 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:18.440 is twenty nine percent. Only fourteen percent of Americans say 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:20.760 that he should not be on trial, including just two 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:24.120 percent of Republicans, fifteen percent of Independence and twenty four 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:28.160 percent of Democrats. I looked through every crosstab that was 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:30.560 publicly available to see if there was any group of 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:35.200 American where a majority or plurality opposed putting Maduro on trial, 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:39.320 and there wasn't. Every group of people in this country, 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:41.960 whether they voted for Harris, whether they are a liberal, 0:05:42.200 --> 0:05:45.200 whether they are white, or college educator or not college educated, 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:49.840 a plurality or a majority support putting Nicholas Maduro on 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:53.440 trial in the United States for drug chargers. Anyone saying 0:05:53.480 --> 0:05:56.840 that this is that the everyone's outrage is only talking 0:05:56.960 --> 0:05:59.279 to purple haired They them's who are overweight with too 0:05:59.320 --> 0:06:03.480 many college Greece. It is overwhelmingly on one side saying 0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:06.360 he should go on trial, and a plurality of every group, 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:09.200 if not majority, support that. Remember what else I told you, 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:12.880 guys when it comes to Venezuela. Americans don't want a 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:16.800 prolonged war. They don't want another Afghanistan, they don't want 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:19.440 another Iraq. We are just a war weary country. It 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:22.680 is the It is what happened from the Bush legacy, 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:26.640 from the Bush presidency that continued onwards after Obama and 0:06:27.160 --> 0:06:30.040 in Afghanistan into the first Trump term. I mean, and 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:32.680 the withdrawal from Afghanistan was horrendous how it was executed. 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:35.440 So we are just very war weary. We don't want 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:41.520 a long intervention. And also remember Venezuela is not Afghanistan 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:43.440 in Iraq. I'm talking to my liberal friends about this 0:06:43.520 --> 0:06:44.960 and they're like, it's going to be the same thing. 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:50.560 Venezuela had democracy in our living memories, right. They had 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:53.920 their last free election, really free election nineteen ninety eight. 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.240 I guess two thousand and two was also fairly free. 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:59.280 It wasn't Chavez was the leader at that point, but 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:02.280 it is not. It was not like the subsequent elections 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:04.840 in Venezuela, which were completely fraudulent. But nineteen ninety eight 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:06.839 was a free election, and it is people's living memory. 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:10.600 Everyone over the age of you know, thirty five probably 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:13.960 remembers nineteen ninety eight existing and being around. So it's 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:17.280 not like you have to pull people who are you know, 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:19.440 one hundred to sit there and say do you remember 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:22.840 when there was a last election in Iraq or Afghanistan, 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:24.480 which I'm not saying that they would even know, but 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:28.640 what I'm saying is that Venezuelans have some tie to democracy, 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:32.240 unlike Afghanistan or Iraq. When you ask Americans do you 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:36.400 support America taking over Venezuela and choosing the new government, 0:07:36.560 --> 0:07:40.520 Americans are very against it. Still, twenty four percent support 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:43.000 that idea, forty five percent of post and remember Trump 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:44.760 kind of flirted with that idea and then he's kind 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:48.240 of changed his mind several times. Among those who support 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:51.200 it is nine percent of Democrats, eighteen percent of Independence, 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:53.960 and forty seven percent of Republicans, which is the parality, 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:57.560 but it's not a majority for something that Trump has 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:01.440 was I endorsed, which is a unique that doesn't happen 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:04.640 a lot where Republicans are willing to a majority of 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:06.560 Republicans willing to sit there and say I'm not so 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:09.360 sure or flat out no. Among people who vould have 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:12.480 heard Trump, forty six percent said yes, nineteen percent said no, 0:08:12.600 --> 0:08:15.760 and thirty four percent said they weren't sure. Among Trump's 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:20.000 most loyal voting block, which are whites without a college degree, 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.640 thirty four percent say yes, thirty five percent say no, 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:28.280 which is crazy that she's not winning a plurality even 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:31.880 of his most loyal voting block outside of Republican voters. 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:35.439 I was talking to a friend of mine whose wife 0:08:35.559 --> 0:08:39.040 is a Venezuelan refugee, and I think she's a citizen now, 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:41.600 but I call them when Medora was arrested, and I said, 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:43.680 I'm sure you're so excited, and you know, this must 0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:45.760 be so great for your wife. And she was on 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:49.000 Maduro's hit list and she would have been executed if 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:51.079 she would have stayed in Venezuela, so I'm sure that 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:53.400 she probably thinks this is, you know, wonderful, and you 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:55.640 guys are so happy. And we started talking about what 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:57.760 happens next and what they would like to see happened next, 0:08:57.800 --> 0:08:59.640 because they don't have very strong opinions about what the 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:01.679 Venice As Weal and government should look like. Right. I 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:05.559 hope they're not a terrorist supporting nation, but other than that, 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:07.400 I'm not really I don't have a lot of strong 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:09.240 feelings about them as well. But I asked her what 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.880 they think is next, and they said that they were like, 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:14.440 you know, if we need to invade that they would 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:16.079 be okay with it. So I kind of made a 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:18.640 joke and I said, well, you know, instead of Americans 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:21.640 going there, we could send the seven hundred thousand Venezuelans 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:23.880 who have come here in the last five years, give 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:25.960 them arms and send them back to their own country 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:28.599 and say have at it, like, you know, get have 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:31.720 your own election, become you know, run your own country now. 0:09:31.800 --> 0:09:34.280 This is your time to run your own country. And 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:36.480 they were kind of I don't know if they were offended. 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:38.160 People always get offend it by stuff I say, but 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:41.120 I like in my regularl life, as if they don't 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:44.719 know who I am, but that they were. They were like, no, no, 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:47.959 we would want Americans to do the job. And I 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:50.760 think that this is a very clear dividing line for 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:54.360 Republicans right. The New York Times and this map if 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:56.920 you're listening to this podcast, if you watch it on YouTube, 0:09:56.920 --> 0:09:59.120 I have the map on display there. The New York 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.280 Times put up the five I have one hundred counties 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:05.680 that have the largest amount of enlistments, of military enlistments 0:10:05.840 --> 0:10:07.360 where they come from. And if you look at the 0:10:07.480 --> 0:10:10.840 map of where our enlistments come from, they're very concentrated. 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:14.440 It's the South. It is parts of the Midwest, parts 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:17.959 of Indiana and southern Illinois and Kentucky and Missouri and Ohio. 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.559 It is Texas, which is you know, Texas, Texas, and 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:24.240 south of South it's Texas. It's Texas, the South, the 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:30.000 parts of the Midwest, and the inland Empire between California, Arizona, Nevada, 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:33.640 that Idaho, that whole stretching not on the coast of California, 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.839 but inland into the west western part of our country, 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:40.840 that very republican part of those states. That's really where 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:45.920 military recruitment is extremely concentrated in this country. You know, 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:48.440 I've said the old adage before. Kids in blue states 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:51.920 wave foreign flags, kids in Red states get American flag 0:10:51.960 --> 0:10:55.080 striped over their coffin. It is not an even distribution 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:58.520 of sacrifice. And when you compare that map to the 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:05.559 for election is Overwhelmingly's counties with high enlistment rates have 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:09.559 voted for President Trump. Now that's not shocking given that 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:12.920 a lot of lower income people see the military as 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:16.719 not only part of their heritage they do generationally, but 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.400 also as a ladder into the middle class. People do 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:21.840 it because they're very patriotic, in Red states, because they 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:24.320 believe in the military, they support it. There's a lot 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:26.880 of reasons to join the military, and in Red states, 0:11:26.920 --> 0:11:30.599 in Red County America. They do so overwhelmingly. So we 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:34.760 were to do in a long standing invasion of Venezuela. 0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:38.360 Guess who pays the price for it. Guess who overwhelming 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:43.199 bears that sacrifice. It is white Americans, majority white Americans, 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:47.880 white American men from red counties and Red States, people 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:50.679 who voted for Donald Trump in part because he was 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.439 the man who sat there and said that Iraq was 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:55.760 a failure, who told Jeb Bush that on the South 0:11:55.800 --> 0:12:00.679 Carolina debate stage. Now, their support of what happened because 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:03.040 it was flawless, it was easy, it was one two three, 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:06.440 and they trust their president. I don't know if President 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:11.199 Trump would want to burn that trust by engaging in long, 0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:15.640 maybe a decade long conflict where those same people's children, 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:19.679 those their sons get murdered for a war than necessarily 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.320 they didn't vote for right. I think that that's an 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:26.040 important part as why the Republican overall voter as much 0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:29.120 as they love this and they're saying, hurrah, you know America, 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:32.679 let's kick something. You know what, there's some trepidation when 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:37.000 it comes to further involvement, and that's really where fellow 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:40.400 non interventionalists are getting this wrong. I have friends of 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:44.240 mine who are big anti anti interventionalists, and I'm more 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:47.480 on that side than not on that side. However, we 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:50.240 don't live in a bubble. We have to engage where 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:52.679 we have to engage. The bombings in Iran went great, right, 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:54.959 we bombed, were in, we were out. We didn't We 0:12:55.040 --> 0:12:57.680 didn't occupy it, We didn't lose American lives, we didn't 0:12:57.679 --> 0:12:59.839 sit there and lose American treasure. It was a one 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:01.959 two three thing to make sure Iran doesn't get a 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:05.840 nuclear weapon. Great. The arrest of Nicholas Maduro one two three, 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:08.079 No Americans die. We were in, we were out, and 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.679 we're gonna have a drug lord of an arco state 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:13.760 that killed a lot of Americans killed on trial. That's great. 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:16.720 We don't live in a bubble. We should apply pressure. 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:18.719 We should try to make the world function better. It 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:22.720 is our military that makes the world operational, as we understand. 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:25.320 It is our navy that keeps the seaways safe, all 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:29.360 the rest of it. However, that doesn't mean we should 0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:33.800 engage in prolonged occupations of foreign countries at the expense 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:38.320 of American treasure and American blood, especially because so often 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.640 it is the Republican sons that go and fight and 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:45.760 die in these wars or come back deeply depressed, deeply mangled, 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:51.680 sometimes deeply wounded personally, spiritually, physically, They carry that burden overwhelmingly. 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:54.520 It is not a Zora Mandani voter who was going 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:56.959 out there to fight these wars. It is always the 0:13:57.080 --> 0:14:00.800 ones who belong to the frat and or could afford college, 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:02.959 and they work at a garage and they're trying to 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:04.760 do the best in life, and they join the military 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.559 for a myriad of reasons, but they bear that sacrifice. 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.880 So there it is. There's the data. We love how 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:16.680 the Republican Party loves how President Trump did. Americans pretty 0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:18.800 evenly split, but more favorable than they used to be 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:22.960 on the whole conflict with Maduro and arresting Maduro. Don't 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:26.000 want a foreign invasion, don't want to occupy Venezuela, don't 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.400 want to decide its future. They want the Venezuelan people 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:32.400 to decide and hopefully they make a good decision. I 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:34.600 have some immigration data that's coming up next that is 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:37.320 very wonky but so interesting. I think you guys are 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:43.040 gonna love it. That's coming up next. So a woman 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:47.320 I think it's a woman named a Lenni Karanaki, Kajanaki. 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:49.680 You guys know, I can't pronounce names. It's a Greek name. 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.840 Though she is an assistant she or he is an 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:55.800 assistant professor professional research fellow at the London School of Economics. 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:59.400 And they did a study on immigrants and the success 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:02.440 of immigrant and who it came to the UK basically 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.760 over the last decade, and they were saying, how has 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:09.320 the wealth gap changed over the last decade among these 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:13.960 immigrant groups in the UK, basically studying how third world immigrants, 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:16.120 how they're doing in a first world society, especially in 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:20.120 the UK, and how that translates not only just among 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:24.320 like individual just like you know, native born versus forum born, 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:28.080 but different individual groups. Right, And here's what the study says. 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:32.240 The analysis of this stage considers that both cross sectional 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:35.960 changes in ethnic wealth gap and ethnic gaps in short 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:40.560 term wealth accumulation, using changes in wealth across waves. That 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:44.000 means basically, people who came two thousand and eight, sorry, 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:47.800 twenty twelve, twenty sixteen, in twenty twenty one, how the 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:51.320 wealth changed over those different times. The fightings re really 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:55.040 stark and persistent inequalities in wealth across ethnic groups, which 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:59.320 widened over time and highlight how initial wealth positions determine 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:02.440 wealth growth. She's wrong about that, but here's why. The 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:06.280 study concluded that since twenty twelve, median wealth gaps between 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:10.480 ethnic groups have widened sharply, with gains concentrated among White 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:14.960 British and Indian ethnic groups. Median wealth substantially for those 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:18.280 groups rose, but median groups remained closed to zero for 0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:22.840 Black Africans, Black Caribbeans, Bangladeshis, and while adults of Pakistani 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:27.680 ethnic groups experience a marked decline basically over the course 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:29.800 of this decade. In the last decade in the UK, 0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:34.280 wealth accumulation has risen for Indians primarily because they've been 0:16:34.600 --> 0:16:37.040 buying huge pieces of property in the UK, that's what 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:40.080 the data shows. And for white British, White British have 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:44.320 made up substantial gains, Indians and beansistantial gains, everyone else 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:48.080 is basically flat and Pakistanis are also declining. Now, remember 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:52.520 this comes at a time of exorbitant population increase. For 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:55.280 all those groups except for White British, their numbers are 0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:59.000 pretty stagnant, but everyone else has this explosion in population, 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:01.520 So you would think there's all these people coming into 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.480 the household, they're able to work harder. You know, you 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:10.480 have three generation, two generation working household families among these immigrants, 0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:14.800 and yet they're actually either stagnant or losing financial stability. 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.400 I'll go on, which is the wealth distribution. All ethnic 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:22.320 groups experienced losses, with exception of Indian ethnic groups. Minority 0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:26.360 groups are substantially larger losses than white British groups, reflecting 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:31.920 the accumulation of a larger debt holdings. Adults in Pakistani, Bangladeshi, 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:35.359 Black Caribbean and Black African ethnic groups registered gains at 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:39.560 higher wealth quadrants. Basically, the very wealthy did very very well, 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:42.080 and those of the middle class or lower class did 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:45.920 not do well, but those were remarkably smaller than white 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:50.800 British and other Asians. Even the top A quadrant of 0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:55.800 Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had significantly lower performances than every other group. Pakistani's, 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:59.960 Bangladeshis and Africans experienced lower levels of savings than white British, 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:05.639 with fifty percent saving absolutely nothing. Now what's crazy is 0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:08.119 I mean, she the writer kind of blames it on racism, 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:10.040 which is so stupid when you realize that I mean, 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:13.240 Indians and Bangladeshies and Pakistanis are not all the same, obviously, 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:15.960 but they're they are more in common than I would say, 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.159 like Indians and Icelandic groups, you know what I mean, 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:22.200 Like they're they're more in common than they're not. There's 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:25.119 a lot tons of cultural difference, but as far as 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:29.359 racial difference, it is extremely minor. And to the average person. 0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:32.200 If someone if an Indian and a Bangladeshi and a 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:34.720 Pakistani are all wearing, you know, a business suit, they 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.440 probably can't tell them differently. So the idea they're racially 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:39.960 discriminating against two of the three and not the third 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:43.800 seems quite strange and probably not likely that it's happening. 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:47.200 What's crazy is not only did later groups of these 0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:50.320 of the study the one crazy thing not only were 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:53.520 they saving less, but they were actually giving more money 0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:58.359 to their native country that she looked at remittance rates. 0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:02.840 Remittance rates for rece waves of black Africans was forty 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:07.640 one percent recent for Bangladeshi's twenty six percent, for other 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:12.679 Asians twenty nine percent for Pakistani's fifteen percent. Huge amount 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:16.439 of money was going instead of saving, instead of building 0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:18.800 wealth in the UK, was going to be sent to 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:22.960 family members throughout Africa and Southeast Asia and the Caribbean. 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:29.159 And when you look at native born Pakistani British warn er, 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:32.520 the British born Pakistani, British born Indian British worn Caribbean 0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:36.520 into the second generation, into the third generation, what the 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:42.080 study found, while they acted more like white British, their mean, 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.399 how they averaged out, how they saved money and treated 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:49.720 wealth accumulation was actually closer to that of an immigrant. 0:19:50.119 --> 0:19:51.359 So why do I bring this all up? I know 0:19:51.440 --> 0:19:53.840 this is very, very very wonky, and I put on 0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:55.680 a lot of graphs for people who are watching this 0:19:55.760 --> 0:19:58.520 program instead of listening to it. I bring this up 0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:00.680 because a couple of years ago, there was a book 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:04.240 called The Cultural Transplant, How migrants make economies they moved 0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:07.160 to look like ones they left. It was a book 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:09.720 by a professor named Garrett Jones. Ask me come on 0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:11.879 this podcast. A couple of times. News always denied me, 0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:14.080 which breaks my heart because I like him, even though 0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:18.000 he probably thinks I'm annoying, But in essence his philosophy, 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:21.560 his opinion in this book was that cultures that come 0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:26.080 to our country they change us more than we changed them. 0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:30.080 Especially over I mean, I guess in the margins over generations, 0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:33.760 but it's very, very very rare. And I think that 0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:37.679 for Indians especially, what you're looking at is because there 0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:41.239 was a strict caste system in India for generations. It's 0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:44.399 not as prevalent as it was then, for sure, but 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:47.000 there was a strict cast system. We managed to get 0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:49.399 the wealthiest, the well educated, the well to do the 0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:52.800 upward mobile Indians from India to the First World. I'm 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:55.520 sure if that was broadened out where everyone had to 0:20:55.560 --> 0:21:00.680 take one hundred million Indians of randomized demographics, those numbers 0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:03.480 would change dramatically over a very short period of time. 0:21:03.760 --> 0:21:07.639 But we've gotten the upward mobile Indians in this country. 0:21:08.320 --> 0:21:10.119 But what he says is if you look at a 0:21:10.280 --> 0:21:13.960 country in the year fifteen hundred, how it did in 0:21:14.080 --> 0:21:16.680 the year fifteen hundred relative to that time around things 0:21:16.800 --> 0:21:20.000 like scientific advancements, if they had a functioning government, other 0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:23.920 things like that. That shows how those immigrant groups do 0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:28.920 in as immigrants now. Right. So unless you're taking the 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:33.440 upward crust, unless you're taking like the very few Algerians 0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:37.560 or people from Madagascar who are extremely advanced, right, those 0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:41.320 top quadrants of Caribbeans that I mentioned who are very 0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:44.440 very wealthy, or Africans who are very very wealthy. Maybe 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.520 on a diamond mind, if you take just those yes, 0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:50.800 you'll see vastly over performance among immigrant groups. But the 0:21:51.000 --> 0:21:56.000 overall group as a whole looks a lot more like 0:21:56.080 --> 0:21:59.200 their native country into the second and into the third generation. 0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:03.320 In essence, culture doesn't change because people move. It doesn't 0:22:03.400 --> 0:22:06.679 change even when they're born into a certain place, if 0:22:06.720 --> 0:22:11.199 they're still more ingratiated in their in their ethnic culture 0:22:11.240 --> 0:22:14.640 that they came from. And I think that plays into 0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:16.960 something that Trump posted about on True Social I know 0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:18.399 you're like, Ryan, You're going all over the place. I 0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:20.840 promise you I'm landing the plane right now. Trump posts 0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:26.320 on Truth Social picture of welfare dependency based upon ethnic groups, right, 0:22:26.640 --> 0:22:31.879