WEBVTT - BofA's Moynihan on Consumer Spending, Fed, Regulation

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>For our Bloomberg audiences worldwide. I'm David Weston. I'm delighted

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<v Speaker 2>to be here with Brian moynan. He of course his

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<v Speaker 2>chair and CEO of Bank of America. So Brian, thank

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<v Speaker 2>you for having us here to your trading floor.

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<v Speaker 3>Happy holidays. First, David, thank you for coming.

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<v Speaker 1>And all these teammates have been there all day to

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<v Speaker 1>waiting for you, so.

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<v Speaker 2>Waiting for something probably making money for you. So let's

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<v Speaker 2>talk with the economy first. Overall, I think it's fair

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<v Speaker 2>to say it's doing better than most people thought it

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<v Speaker 2>would do. Is there any cause for concern it may

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<v Speaker 2>be overheating, particularly as we see some new policies maybe

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<v Speaker 2>coming our way.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think let's start on the first part of

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<v Speaker 1>that question. If we were sitting here last year, our team,

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<v Speaker 1>the research team, Kansas's team had a soft landing, no

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<v Speaker 1>landing predicted, and a lot of people say, oh, that's

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<v Speaker 1>very optimistic. And as matter of fact, we went from

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<v Speaker 1>that would have been like a one percent GDP growth

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<v Speaker 1>rate this quarter and we're going to have two and

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<v Speaker 1>a half or something like that. So we've moved up

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<v Speaker 1>from abnormally from positive but low to now higher than trend,

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<v Speaker 1>higher than average, And so that means the economy is

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<v Speaker 1>not having a balance anything. It's just going on as

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<v Speaker 1>normal growth trend, which is good news if you think

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<v Speaker 1>about it becoming over heat. I think all the policies

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<v Speaker 1>are yet to come in. There's enthusiasm or discussion, but

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<v Speaker 1>everything's still out there until the policy get acted.

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<v Speaker 3>Our team, when they.

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<v Speaker 1>Look at taras say say, well, if tarasa are set

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<v Speaker 1>by better regulation, they'll kind of even each other out.

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<v Speaker 1>But even given their knowledge of the Trump present, like

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's policies, they are still predicting next years of two

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<v Speaker 1>and a half percent GDP growth. They predict a FED

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<v Speaker 1>cuts rates a few times, but stays three seventy five

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<v Speaker 1>to four, and the predicted it takes inflation all the

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<v Speaker 1>way into twenty six to get down to the target.

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<v Speaker 1>If the inflation's moving down and we can grow this economy,

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<v Speaker 1>that's actually not a bad place to be.

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<v Speaker 2>Honestly, does this economy need any physical stimulus at this point?

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<v Speaker 2>And it looks right now like the so called Trump

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<v Speaker 2>task cuts will get extended. And also Canada, Trump is

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<v Speaker 2>talking about a lot more tax cuts and given the

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<v Speaker 2>fact that we're above a trend on growth and we're

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<v Speaker 2>to full employment, do we need any more stimulus.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure you need more stimulus, just like we

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<v Speaker 1>didn't need the stimulus probably in twenty one because the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic goes through the system. But the question is if

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<v Speaker 1>you lower taxes and use it to reduce the debt.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there are questions how stimiative those activities are.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's where the Terasury Secretary of appointee has got

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<v Speaker 1>to figure it all out, because he's got to call

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<v Speaker 1>the balls and strikes about how it all fits together,

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<v Speaker 1>and that he's a market's orient person, he knows that

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<v Speaker 1>if it gets too far on line. We just ran

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<v Speaker 1>for the last fiscal year in the United States and

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<v Speaker 1>operating deficit of one point eight trillion, which is equally

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<v Speaker 1>the entire.

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<v Speaker 3>GDP of the country of Australia.

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<v Speaker 1>So we got to realize that the impact we have

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<v Speaker 1>if we don't get this debt back in line. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think everything on one side has to be governed

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<v Speaker 1>with whether they're do on the other side off set

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<v Speaker 1>it whether it has that much effect. Right now, the

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<v Speaker 1>economy is moving along, consumers are spending it's up for

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<v Speaker 1>a two week period around the holiday Thanksgiving holiday. It's

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<v Speaker 1>up five percent of it last year. That is good

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<v Speaker 1>and solid, that is not overheated at all. But that

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<v Speaker 1>came off the lows a little bit the sum where

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<v Speaker 1>I was a little nervous that they're going to let

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer drift too far down. So between interest rates

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<v Speaker 1>being cut a little bit between through his rats around

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<v Speaker 1>the election, the market's being up. The consumers are spending more,

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<v Speaker 1>and talents are going to spend more for the holidays,

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<v Speaker 1>which is good for the general economy.

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<v Speaker 3>We've got to keep them in the game.

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<v Speaker 1>By not by overstimulating, by overdoing, by keeping the game

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<v Speaker 1>just by getting a good core economy going with good

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<v Speaker 1>deregulation activities, good tax policy, good immigration policy. These are

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<v Speaker 1>hard things, but I think they're off working on it.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's stand the consumers here, because you know so much

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<v Speaker 2>about the consumers here at back of America, giving your relationships.

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<v Speaker 2>How is the consumer doing. I know they're spending, but

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<v Speaker 2>I've seen numbers that suggest they're borrowing more, and in fact,

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<v Speaker 2>Saint Luis FED has new numbers out from it as

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<v Speaker 2>of October. The defaults are up as well, are you

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<v Speaker 2>worried at all about the consumer.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is also this is go back to what

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<v Speaker 1>you're thinking about, which is if you say the levels

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<v Speaker 1>of consumer credit card debt are above whether we are.

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<v Speaker 3>In nineteen, it's almost it's five years later.

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<v Speaker 1>They should be above where they are in nineteen because

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<v Speaker 1>economy is thirty percent bigger, So a lot is not numbers.

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<v Speaker 3>Forget to put them relative scale.

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<v Speaker 1>If you look at on a relative basis, it's still

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<v Speaker 1>far below er it was nineteen.

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<v Speaker 3>And the credit was very good.

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<v Speaker 1>Then if you look at the defaults, they picked up

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<v Speaker 1>and normalized the faults and delinquencies to where they were

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen nineteen. Twenty nineteen was a fifty year low, and

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<v Speaker 1>credit costs in our company fifty years we had to

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<v Speaker 1>go back to find. So we got to be a

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<v Speaker 1>little careful about what we're compared to. Everything's steady and

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<v Speaker 1>fine now. Credit quality, consumers, the ability to borrow the

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<v Speaker 1>household income they feel pinch them in the higher prices.

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<v Speaker 1>Part of that is real and part of that's just mental.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, if the price of eggs doubled, it's hard

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<v Speaker 1>to ever tell anybody it's okay because they have more

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<v Speaker 1>wages they're just never going to agree with us, And

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<v Speaker 1>that's the economist viel of an economy versus human beings view.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, all things, if they weren't, they wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>be spending money the way they are in a rational way.

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<v Speaker 1>At five percent year of the year, for the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks, three and a half four percent for

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<v Speaker 1>the month of November, and likewise it looks like that'll

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<v Speaker 1>be December if they didn't feel confident.

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<v Speaker 3>And why is that? All comes back to one thing.

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<v Speaker 1>Four point one percent on the deployment rate, wage growth

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<v Speaker 1>of three percent, that's the court.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, what could disrupt that a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>Of things, but that right now, that's the condition of

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<v Speaker 1>American consumer. They have the ability to borrow, and they're

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<v Speaker 1>borrowing rationally. They are employed, their wages are going up,

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<v Speaker 1>they feel the pinch of inflation. They're trying to work

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<v Speaker 1>that all through, and they're trying to have a decent,

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<v Speaker 1>a good holiday season.

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<v Speaker 3>So we'll play that. What will hurt that worse is.

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<v Speaker 1>An unemployment moving up, and right now that's not predicted

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<v Speaker 1>to happen at all.

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<v Speaker 3>Next year.

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<v Speaker 1>It's supposed to go. Our team has a four point

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<v Speaker 1>three year end next year. You and I have been

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<v Speaker 1>for most of our business careers. We'd been jumping over

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<v Speaker 1>this the moon if we thought unemployment was four point

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<v Speaker 1>three for the two or three years in a row

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<v Speaker 1>or less.

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<v Speaker 2>Take all that economic data, put it all together, and

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<v Speaker 2>tell me what the Fed should be doing. They're meeting today,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll get a decision tomorrow. Twenty five basis points seems

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<v Speaker 2>to be baked in as a cut, but should it

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<v Speaker 2>be cutting further? Beyont the twenty five base points given

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<v Speaker 2>the strength of the economy and all the things you

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<v Speaker 2>just said.

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<v Speaker 1>If the economist view is you have to have a

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<v Speaker 1>real rate structure across the curve of seventy five basis

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<v Speaker 1>points one hundred basis points. If you're four seventy five

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<v Speaker 1>four fifty now and the invition rates three point three,

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<v Speaker 1>that's bigger.

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<v Speaker 3>So you've got to start to bring it in normalized.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got to get to, you know, positive soap and curve,

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<v Speaker 1>a curve that has real rates across it. An inverted

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<v Speaker 1>curve means something anticipatory is going.

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<v Speaker 3>To go the other way. All that's got to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think they need to bring it down a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>They just have to be more careful because the economy

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<v Speaker 1>is stronger than we thought three months ago, six months ago,

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<v Speaker 1>but it still has potential weaknesses. You and I haven't

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<v Speaker 1>even talked about what's going on outside the United States

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<v Speaker 1>that can affect the United States. Not terrorists stuff, but wars.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, what happened in the Middle East is the week.

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<v Speaker 1>What happened in Korea, what happened, what's happened in Germany.

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<v Speaker 1>All these political changes could impact the United States ultimately

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<v Speaker 1>because and reverberate with them, because we sell a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of goods in the LED countries, and by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>we buy a lot of stuff from these countries, and

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, we're inextra could be linked with the

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<v Speaker 1>outcomes of some of these things, and so we.

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<v Speaker 3>Have to be careful. But if you look at the

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<v Speaker 3>USA out of cut.

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<v Speaker 1>Rates, bring them our view, our teams views that bring

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<v Speaker 1>them down to three seventy five ish type of level

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<v Speaker 1>three more cuts from where they are today, but they'll

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<v Speaker 1>be higher in the current context.

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<v Speaker 3>But if you look back excluding two thousand.

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<v Speaker 1>And eight till now, three and a half percent, three

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<v Speaker 1>percent FED funds rate is the norm, not the exception.

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<v Speaker 3>It's only been the exception in the last fifteen years.

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<v Speaker 2>But it is different from what we thought it was

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<v Speaker 2>going to be. It's higher, I think the neutral rates

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<v Speaker 2>higher than it was. How does that affect your business

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<v Speaker 2>if at all?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, the question of everyone says to higher rates help

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<v Speaker 1>high rates, the question is why they're there. If we

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<v Speaker 1>had a normal rate curve from say three and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent on the front end of four and a

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<v Speaker 1>half to percent of the ten year you know, and

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<v Speaker 1>it was and the economy has growing two percent, that's

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<v Speaker 1>a very.

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<v Speaker 3>Good place for banking.

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<v Speaker 1>The lincolns is to be low cost of credit and

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<v Speaker 1>its availability is there. Your deposits are better suited at

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<v Speaker 1>a higher nominal rate because when they go down, we

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<v Speaker 1>have zero fours on a third to half of our

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<v Speaker 1>deposits that just can't go any lower and zero unless

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<v Speaker 1>we start charging people to give us their.

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<v Speaker 3>Money, which isn't going to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's better force. But if the reason why they're

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<v Speaker 1>hire is to choke off inflation, that can be not

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<v Speaker 1>so good because that will probably lead to recession. And

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<v Speaker 1>so the question what's the underline of and be doing

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<v Speaker 1>less than the rate structure and the unline economy? Right

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<v Speaker 1>now going two and a half with a three and

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<v Speaker 1>a half to four percent fed funds rate in the

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<v Speaker 1>four and a half percent tenure rate would be great

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<v Speaker 1>for our industry.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's why I just keep growing every quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>We're thirteen nine, fourteen one, fourteen three, and you expect

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<v Speaker 1>that growth to continue, and it's just walking up a

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<v Speaker 1>ladder back to a level and you know, a peak.

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<v Speaker 3>We're like fourteen eight or fifteen.

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<v Speaker 2>So we have people out right now saying not four

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<v Speaker 2>and a half, maybe five percent or even six percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the tenure Do you put any credence in that.

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<v Speaker 1>Our team doesn't see that, you know, and I have

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<v Speaker 1>to rely on the experts that spent you know, we

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<v Speaker 1>wrote research paper with a five thousand year interest rate

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<v Speaker 1>low in interest rates, and I said, how do you

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<v Speaker 1>know that?

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<v Speaker 3>And they said, well, we went back and did research.

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<v Speaker 1>So we have Kansas's teams, a powerful team and the

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<v Speaker 1>best in the business. So they think it's four and

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<v Speaker 1>a half is just kind of what it is. And

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<v Speaker 1>as the rate structure comes in, is there potential for that, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's probably when something else is going on that is

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<v Speaker 1>not good and therefore there'll be at faster adjustments which

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<v Speaker 1>might bring it back.

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<v Speaker 3>In, but you know, you think about it. To go

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<v Speaker 3>from a.

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<v Speaker 1>One one and a half percent ten yure to a

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<v Speaker 1>four four and a half percent tenure, that's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of movement, and it's very restrictive on activity till the

0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:06.240
<v Speaker 1>activity just out of that, and that's what we're seeing now.

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<v Speaker 2>You mentioned Donald Trump returning to the presidency next month. Now,

0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:12.440
<v Speaker 2>how do you take the new account at Bank of America?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, what do you anticipate. We don't know exactly

0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:16.880
<v Speaker 2>what will happen when it will happen, So how do

0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:18.720
<v Speaker 2>you plan for that? What will it mean for Bank

0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:19.680
<v Speaker 2>of America? Do you think?

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<v Speaker 3>Well?

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<v Speaker 1>So, I think one of the larger context is the

0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:25.240
<v Speaker 1>oldest part of our company has been around for every

0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:27.560
<v Speaker 1>presidential transition except for George Washington.

0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:28.480
<v Speaker 3>So we've been.

0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:30.600
<v Speaker 1>Through this before. We'll be through it to gain. But

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<v Speaker 1>the real fact of the matter is if you think

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<v Speaker 1>about what the policies are that he President elect Trunk

0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:40.160
<v Speaker 1>got elected on. It's inflation and immigrations, but it's also

0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:43.079
<v Speaker 1>about deregulation and our industry needs to have a sober

0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:47.080
<v Speaker 1>look at what the right regulation. Fifteen years ago, sixteen

0:09:47.160 --> 0:09:49.600
<v Speaker 1>seventeen years ago after the financial crisis, we had to

0:09:49.600 --> 0:09:51.839
<v Speaker 1>put new capital lu liquidity and restore the confidence in

0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:57.440
<v Speaker 1>America Since ten twelve years ago, the people, government, the

0:09:57.559 --> 0:09:58.720
<v Speaker 1>capitals about writing the industry.

0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:00.719
<v Speaker 3>Yet we kept ratching it up. So we ratchet up.

0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:03.480
<v Speaker 1>Capital, that draws down our ability to lend. It makes

0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:06.360
<v Speaker 1>credit harder to get in, more expensive, and on a

0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:08.920
<v Speaker 1>worldwide competitive basis, our capital rations are much higher.

0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:10.640
<v Speaker 3>And then the data is supervision.

0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:13.000
<v Speaker 1>So the idea of bringing that regulation back in the

0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.520
<v Speaker 1>middle and then frankly for the good industry, getting is

0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:17.760
<v Speaker 1>settled someplace so that we can build a model around it.

0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:20.040
<v Speaker 1>What happens now is we do this and so we're

0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:21.760
<v Speaker 1>hoping it brings it back to the middle. That's what

0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.120
<v Speaker 1>our and by the way, that's what our customers like

0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:27.000
<v Speaker 1>about their industry. So whether it's the FDA FTC getting

0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:29.640
<v Speaker 1>deals done, the enthusiasm, it's all about wait a second,

0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:31.120
<v Speaker 1>now we can swing it back to the middle and

0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:33.600
<v Speaker 1>go get stuff done and make the private sector, which

0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:36.440
<v Speaker 1>is the reason why America is successful, lead as opposed

0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:37.280
<v Speaker 1>to the governmental sector.

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<v Speaker 2>So when you hear about a pledge for deregulation is

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<v Speaker 2>the main thing you hear with your Bank of America

0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:43.120
<v Speaker 2>years on.

0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:44.840
<v Speaker 3>Is the reserve.

0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:48.319
<v Speaker 1>Requirements, capital, reserve liquidity, see Cartel.

0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:49.400
<v Speaker 3>There's a thousand different things.

0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:52.120
<v Speaker 1>What I really hear about deregulation is our clients also saying,

0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:54.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, let's do deals, including our banking client. You know,

0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:57.440
<v Speaker 1>we have our investment banking bank clients, and you've seen

0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:01.960
<v Speaker 1>four or five deals past the day. The selling company

0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.240
<v Speaker 1>in a transaction won't sell if there's a lot of

0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:07.680
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty around it. No matter what the value is a matter.

0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:09.040
<v Speaker 1>If I don't think it's going to get done, I

0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:11.680
<v Speaker 1>don't sell. That's what was going on for the last

0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:13.800
<v Speaker 1>few years. Any deal of size was going to get

0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.360
<v Speaker 1>hung up somehow unless it was so different. It was

0:11:16.440 --> 0:11:19.120
<v Speaker 1>like a private equifirm buying a company had no other firm.

0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:22.719
<v Speaker 1>And that's not good for letting these American companies get

0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:24.360
<v Speaker 1>more successful and grow. It doesn't mean you're going to

0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:26.120
<v Speaker 1>be into competitive, doesn't mean you're going to have that

0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:31.719
<v Speaker 1>there's huge price, desire to market, there's great competition, all

0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:33.960
<v Speaker 1>that stuff. What it means is our companies can grow

0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:36.439
<v Speaker 1>and make the kind of strategic choices that happens in

0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:39.120
<v Speaker 1>the banking system. We can't do any acquisition that happens

0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:41.360
<v Speaker 1>to our clients, it happens around us, that'll be good

0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:43.400
<v Speaker 1>for us. But now, as it is about capital liquidity

0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:45.360
<v Speaker 1>and day to day supervision, what.

0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:47.520
<v Speaker 2>Is the biggest change coming up for Bank of America

0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:48.800
<v Speaker 2>because of this new administration?

0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:51.080
<v Speaker 1>Do you think, Well, I think it'll be the economic

0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:54.640
<v Speaker 1>atmosphere of deregulation, how applies us specifically, how it applies

0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.280
<v Speaker 1>more generally, and that will be good. Now, we got

0:11:57.320 --> 0:12:00.480
<v Speaker 1>serious issues, as I said, around the outside world, serious

0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:02.240
<v Speaker 1>issues or brought the right balance to get the debt

0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.439
<v Speaker 1>back in line with our GDP and keep it there.

0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:08.240
<v Speaker 1>But those issues are not new, but they have to

0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.199
<v Speaker 1>dealt with because we've been in some ways not dealing

0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:13.760
<v Speaker 1>with the debt issues or not dealing with immigration for

0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:16.920
<v Speaker 1>fifteen since I've been CEO. We've been talking about solutions

0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:19.000
<v Speaker 1>here and we've got to now start to implement some

0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:21.320
<v Speaker 1>of those to just bend the curve of debt growth,

0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:27.200
<v Speaker 1>get more and more cash in, to cash out as

0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.480
<v Speaker 1>more rational position, and then get the Hopefully, if you

0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:34.120
<v Speaker 1>get the reguatory policies, you outgrow that. And that's basically

0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:35.960
<v Speaker 1>what our research team thinks. They've added a little bit

0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:38.240
<v Speaker 1>to their growth since in saying that combination of policies

0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:40.480
<v Speaker 1>some offset each other, some will add to it, but

0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:41.800
<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day will be a little

0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:43.559
<v Speaker 1>bit more growth orient We'll see what happens.

0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:46.199
<v Speaker 2>Brian, thank you so much for being on Bloomberg as

0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:49.280
<v Speaker 2>Brian Moneyhand, He's chair and CEO of Bank of America.

0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:50.200
<v Speaker 3>Back to you,