WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Ed Hyman

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A single best idea,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's a special edition, a single best idea. There's

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<v Speaker 1>no other way to put it. When Ed Heyman walks

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<v Speaker 1>in the door for a generous half hour conversation, he

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<v Speaker 1>touches upon a lot of points. I want to explain

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<v Speaker 1>the why here. Part of so much of what we

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<v Speaker 1>do at Bloomberg Surveillance and before that at Bloomberg on

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is actually trying to understand who is this guy.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like Butch Cassidy, who is this guy? Who is

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<v Speaker 1>this woman? And the guests are different. Ed Heiman was

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<v Speaker 1>at CJ. Lawrence before Ed Yard Danny, both of them

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<v Speaker 1>world class economists, and ed Heiman codified what I call

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<v Speaker 1>chart paragraph, chart paragraph, chart paragraph. There's a chart and

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<v Speaker 1>then a quick paragraph and then another chart. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>entire report. There's not a lot of discussion going on here.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a lot of pictures that tell a story. And

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<v Speaker 1>all of that came out of the technical work of

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<v Speaker 1>one Alan Greenspan years ago. We just look at the

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<v Speaker 1>data and it's not a small idea that the leading

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<v Speaker 1>chart in Ed's latest note was a Trucker's survey falling

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<v Speaker 1>off a cliff is too negative, but it's diminished, it's

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<v Speaker 1>slowing down, and of course that folds into what the

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<v Speaker 1>FED will do and Hymen on a FED.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the FED has been doing a pretty good job,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm generally critical of the Fed. Okay, but either

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<v Speaker 2>my luck or my skill, they have the path set

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<v Speaker 2>now for cutting rates and we got claimed this morning solo.

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<v Speaker 2>It makes me have a headache. And so they're you know,

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<v Speaker 2>they got different mandate, So I don't necessarily think they

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<v Speaker 2>should have will know better to answer to that question.

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<v Speaker 2>I do think that they were way off on raising rates.

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<v Speaker 1>Edheimen there and Jerom Powell and what the Federal do

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<v Speaker 1>for it clearly indicated he needs to see data to

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<v Speaker 1>get to fifty basis point cut. That's out there. Anna

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<v Speaker 1>Wong Bloomberg Economics said the difficulties in the labor economy

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<v Speaker 1>shown yesterday in the data doesn't tilt to fifty basis points,

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<v Speaker 1>but she says it's part of the discussion to say

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<v Speaker 1>the least ed Hymen for years. This is way before

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<v Speaker 1>Evercore took out Isi at Hymen's ISI, he's really stayed

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<v Speaker 1>away from the politics of the moment, he doesn't put

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<v Speaker 1>on an obligatory political discussion at the end. It's a

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<v Speaker 1>very rare thing here he is ed Heyman on an

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<v Speaker 1>election in November.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a dance. And Everquore has its roots in the

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<v Speaker 2>very democratic group of people as founders Roger Roger Altman

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<v Speaker 2>and Ralph Slashdain and they're terrific, and so I have

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<v Speaker 2>to be a little careful he as a Republican, you're not.

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<v Speaker 2>It's their firm and I don't want to get in

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<v Speaker 2>the way. But as we all know, it's fifty to

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<v Speaker 2>fifty and so it's too early to try and figure

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<v Speaker 2>out the economic implications.

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<v Speaker 1>Not too early to listen to the debate. We'll do

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<v Speaker 1>that across Bloomberg. The ABC debate in Philadelphia, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>thrilled that David Girl will lead our coverage for the

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<v Speaker 1>debate on September tenth. Thank you. What day is that?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it? Tuesday? Tuesday, September tenth. Yeah, it's spending this

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<v Speaker 1>time of year, you know, you need how much for

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<v Speaker 1>school supplies? Like that's the major question going on right now. Finally,

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<v Speaker 1>with that, Heimen, I asked them a delicate question, and

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<v Speaker 1>that is the debate on unrealized gains. Let me explain

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<v Speaker 1>this quickly. You buy Apple and it goes up, and

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<v Speaker 1>you owned it for five years, six years, eight years, whatever,

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<v Speaker 1>and you have a huge profit and you don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to sell. You just carry the gain forward until you

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<v Speaker 1>sell or death or whatever. Some out there want to

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<v Speaker 1>tax the gain along the way, even if you don't

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<v Speaker 1>sell the apple shares. This is new Edhimen.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it harms everybody. Why because it hurts the

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<v Speaker 2>whole capitalistic system, and so I mean that's one of

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<v Speaker 2>the things that I would find the most discouraging. It

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<v Speaker 2>also is impossible to administer, so I don't think that's

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<v Speaker 2>going to make it, but it definitely is low on life.

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<v Speaker 2>So broadly, listening.

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<v Speaker 1>At Heimen there on this idea of taxing gains that

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<v Speaker 1>have not been taken, the only thing I'll editorialize there

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<v Speaker 1>is I just sort of gut feeling, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't want to get into the politics of it.

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<v Speaker 1>But if they do text unrealized capital gains, I think

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<v Speaker 1>you could rename the document the Accountant Employment Act of

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand whatever. That's sort of where I would go

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<v Speaker 1>on that Jobs Day tomorrow will go beneath the headline

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<v Speaker 1>day to day thirty. Let me go through our distribution.

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<v Speaker 1>We are thunderstruck by the August numbers. Granted we had

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<v Speaker 1>a small affair early in the month of the stock

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<v Speaker 1>market which helped out. But thank you, thank you so

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<v Speaker 1>much for your support. Across Android Auto, Apple car play

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<v Speaker 1>one more time there has been confusion. Subscribe to Bloomberg

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