1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheris 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: j J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in 3 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: this episode ten ninety six of the Late Round Fantasy 4 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:21,600 Speaker 1: Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I know a lot 5 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: of you have rookie drafts going on, so I wanted 6 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: to get this episode out as soon as I possibly could. 7 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: My focus has been on the Late Round Prospect gude, 8 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: which is available right now on Lateround dot com. It's 9 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:33,559 Speaker 1: all finished up. It has updated player write ups and 10 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,559 Speaker 1: zapp scores. But now that it's out the door, my 11 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 1: focus has shifted to this episode and I wanted to 12 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: get it out asap. I don't remember a draft where 13 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: I was this excited to dig into the post draft analysis. 14 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: And that might seem backwards because post draft rookie drafts 15 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 1: look probably the worst they've ever looked in my time 16 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 1: of being a fantasy football analyst. But because this draft 17 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: wasn't filled with obvious talent, it means there's more to 18 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: break down. It's not as simple as this guy's really good, 19 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: so draft this player. We have to think more deeply 20 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 1: about the player that we're analyzing. We have to think 21 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 1: more deeply about the role that he might play, and 22 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: that can give an edge to the people who are 23 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: putting in the work. So let's put in that work. 24 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: I do this episode after the draft each year where 25 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: instead of immediately going over my rookie rankings, which again 26 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: you can find those in the Late Round Prospect Guide 27 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 1: right now, but instead of going over those rankings, I 28 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: take a step back and I try to analyze what 29 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 1: we just watched. We get free agency, sure, but free 30 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 1: agency that's not a period where teams are forced to 31 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 1: make decisions. They're forced to do things. In the draft, 32 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: it gives us a chance to see what they might 33 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: be thinking through their actions rather than through their words, 34 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: and we can get some help by analyzing those actions. 35 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: If we thought a team was going to heavily invest 36 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 1: in a running back and they chose not to take 37 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: one at all, that's information. If a team had what 38 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: we thought was a good wide receiver room but they 39 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: took one early, that's information. My goal today is to 40 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: go over what I think these front offices were thinking 41 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: when they made specific moves in this year's draft. That way, 42 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: we can take that information and apply it to our 43 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: fantasy football leagues. So with that let's dig in now. 44 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,839 Speaker 1: Before getting into some of the individual teams, I want 45 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: to share some general thoughts. We're all sitting here, we're 46 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: staring at our late first round rookie picks, and we're 47 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: asking ourselves how this is even possible, But how we 48 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 1: feel about rookie drafts right now? It actually makes plenty 49 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: of sense. I said time and time again on this 50 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: show that this year's running back class was bad, and 51 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: that this year's wide receiver class just had a lot 52 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:44,079 Speaker 1: of dudes, a lot of average profiles, and that we'd 53 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: probably see some of them emerge just because there were 54 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 1: enough of them out there that we're going to get 55 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: Day two draft capital. I think that's exactly what we're 56 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: seeing right now. Draft Capital showed us that the NFL 57 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: didn't like this running back class. Meanwhile, we still got 58 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 1: a ton of wide receivers selected in the top one hundred. 59 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 1: In fact, there were seventeen of them in this class. 60 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,799 Speaker 1: That's the highest that we've seen since at least twenty eleven. Now, 61 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: I definitely don't mind most of the first round wide receivers, 62 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 1: but the majority of them on Day two have pretty 63 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:17,079 Speaker 1: average to blow average analytical profiles In fact, there were 64 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: seven day two wide receivers in this class who got 65 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: tagged with a high risk draft capital delta. The most 66 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: from any other season since twenty eleven has been three. 67 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: We had seven this year. And by the way, I've 68 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: gotten some questions about draft capital delta this offseason. People 69 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 1: seem to think that it has to do with pre 70 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 1: draft draft capital or projected draft capital versus actual draft capital, 71 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: and I just want to say it has nothing to 72 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: do with projected draft capital. Draft capital delta is basically 73 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: how the model views a player versus how the NFL 74 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: views the player. It says, Okay, this guy's ZAP score 75 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: is X. Typically with this draft capital, a player at 76 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: that position would score X minus two. So in that case, 77 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: if he should be two points lower, then he'd have 78 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: a positive draft capital delta. The model likes him more 79 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: than the NFL did. I then bucket those players into 80 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 1: low risk, neutral and high risk profiles. The low risk 81 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: and high risk profiles they are the extreme ones. So 82 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 1: with high risk profiles, it's saying that the ZAP model 83 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 1: likes those players a whole lot less than where they 84 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: were actually drafted. Seven Day two wide receivers had high 85 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: risk profiles, and fourteen wide receivers in total had high 86 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: risk profiles, the most of any season by a wide margin. 87 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: But look, analytics isn't going to capture everything. The model 88 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 1: isn't going to be one hundred percent right, and that's 89 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: part of the reason that draft capital is one of 90 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: the inputs in the ZAP model. So because there are 91 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: so many players with this good draft capital, someone's gonna 92 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: emerge more than likely. But who that player is. That's 93 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: why we feel so crappy about rookie average draft position. 94 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 1: It's not that we don't have enough Day two players 95 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: to choose from. It's that the guys that were choosing 96 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: from are mostly uninspiring. And then some of the players 97 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: that people actually liked, they didn't get the best landing 98 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 1: spots in the world. So, on one hand, I'm definitely 99 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: surprised by how this bad class somehow got worse. On 100 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: the other, I'm not that surprised. The numbers were kind 101 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 1: of showing this pre draft. The Eagles were a team 102 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: who clearly needed some help at pass catcher, given AJ 103 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 1: Brown's eventual departure and Dallas Goddard being a free agent 104 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 1: after this season. Goddard's also thirty one years old, and 105 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: they definitely got pass catchers. They took McKay lemon in 106 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 1: round one, they got Eli Stowers in round two. Both 107 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: players as a model likes, which seems to be a 108 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: rarity in this class. McKay lemon has a very serious 109 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: slot profile. He ran almost seventy six percent of his 110 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:47,719 Speaker 1: routes from the slot across his collegiate career. According to PFF. 111 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: That's brought some fulls gold profiles. In the past, players 112 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: like Elijah Moore who had great production profiles, but they 113 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: also lived in the slot. Really, the list goes on 114 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: and on. It's not just Elijah Moore, but almost all 115 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 1: of those players, aside from someone like Treylon Burks, they 116 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 1: were not first round picks since twenty twenty. Here's a 117 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: list of the first round wide receivers who had slot 118 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 1: rates above sixty percent across their collegiate careers. Jerry Judy, 119 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:18,799 Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson, Jalen Wattle, Kadarius Tony Drake London, Treylon Burks, 120 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: Jackson Smith and Jigba Jordan Addison, Amecca Buca, and now 121 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: mackay Lemon and Casey Concepcione. If you look at seventy 122 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 1: percent or more, you get Waddle, Tony Burks, Jsen Abuka, 123 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: and then the two guys from this class. And for 124 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 1: the record, Tony was just not even close to the 125 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 1: other guys from production standpoint. Basically, what I'm getting at is, 126 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: if a team gives a quote slot player first round 127 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: draft capital, it's highly unlikely that he's going to be 128 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 1: a Jaden Reid type player in the NFL, or at 129 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: least Jayden Reid. So far in the NFL. The dream 130 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 1: hasn't died yet, folks. Lemon definitely projects to work in 131 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 1: the middle of the field, and from a real football perspective, 132 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 1: I love the pairing with Devonte Smith, and it's just 133 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: another reason I think Smith is in store for a 134 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: big season. He can stretch the field and he can 135 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 1: win as he does in those intermediate and deep routes. 136 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: Lemon keeps defenses honest with that lower average at the 137 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: target and working that short area. The Eli Stowers pick 138 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: definitely makes Lemon a little bit less attractive though. Stowers 139 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: is a pure pass catching tight end who some believes 140 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: should play X receiver, but he'll occupy some of the 141 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: same areas that Lemon will, which again good for the Eagles, 142 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: bad for fantasy football, and all of that is happening 143 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: while Jalen Hurts is their quarterback. Now, Personnel can definitely 144 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: dictate this. But Hurtz avoids the middle of the field 145 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 1: more than any other quarterback in football according to Fantasy 146 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: Points Data and this was dug up by FF Data 147 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: ROMA on Twitter. But according to Fantasy Points Data and 148 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: FF Data Roma, Jalen Hurts rang dead last and percentage 149 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: of throws the middle of the field in twenty twenty four. 150 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 1: He was second to last in twenty twenty five. On 151 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: attempts less than ten yards down the field. Over the 152 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: middle of the field, Hurts rang thirty eight of thirty 153 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: nine quarterbacks in twenty twenty four and then thirty second 154 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: of thirty six and twenty twenty five. That's an area 155 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: where Mackay Lemon's gonna thrive, or he has thrived historically. 156 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: I think Lemon is a capable wide receiver, but this 157 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: landing spot, it means he's got less wiggle room to 158 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 1: hit like we need to see that higher end outcome 159 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: play out or else it could get ugly. But I'm 160 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: also gonna trust that the Eagles and they're shifting offensive 161 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 1: coordinator that they're aware of all of this. I don't 162 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 1: think a smart organization makes the two picks that they 163 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: made without an understanding that things are about to change. Nevertheless, 164 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:41,079 Speaker 1: it's something to think about. The Cleveland Browns were unbelievably 165 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: frustrating in this draft as well, from the standpoint of 166 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: taking players who could have been Fantasy relevant and placing 167 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: them on the same team. They got Casey Conceptsion in 168 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: round one. They followed it up with Denzel Boston in 169 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: round two. The za moodel Blake's Conceptsione. He actually had 170 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: a very comparable zapp score compared to Lemon when it 171 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: was all said and done. But Conceptsion and Boston they're 172 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: now on a team with Harold Fannin, Jerry Judy, and 173 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 1: Cedric Tillman with no answer at quarterback. It's a short 174 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 1: term mess. Here's the thing. Though. You may look at 175 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: McKay Lemon and say the situation isn't that bad, and 176 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 1: I'm actually more on the side that people are very 177 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,839 Speaker 1: unfair to Jalen Hurts just in general. But right now 178 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 1: Hurts is not playing like a top ten quarterback, and 179 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: the Eagles with Hurtz's starter haven't had a single season 180 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: with a positive pass rate over expected, at least with Cleveland. 181 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: They're probably not going to be very good this year. 182 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 1: They'll have a shot at a quarterback next year in 183 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: a good class, and then in twenty twenty seven, Tillman's 184 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: a free agent and the Browns have an out with 185 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: Jerry Judy's contract. So even if Concepsione or even if 186 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: Boston have a down season, they may be able to 187 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:50,280 Speaker 1: maintain dynasty value with those changes in mind, and I 188 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 1: think those changes are likely not unlikely. Kencepcion's also just 189 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: a much cleaner prospect than Denzel Boston in my opinion. 190 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,080 Speaker 1: Boston was one of those Day two picks who he 191 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 1: was slapped with the high risk Draft capital delta and 192 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 1: his yards pro out run profile something that doesn't even 193 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 1: go in the model. It's not very robust Conceptsion had 194 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: a seventy eight percentile breakout score, and he had versatility 195 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 1: to his profile. And if the Browns give Todd munkin 196 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: more than just this twenty twenty six season, don't forget 197 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: that Monkin coach z Flowers to some fantasy relevant seasons 198 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: in Baltimore. Flowers was also a non traditional wide receiver 199 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 1: on the usage front coming out of school, and Flowers 200 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: was a worse prospect compared to Conceptsion in my opinion. 201 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: So yeah, short term, after that Boston draft pick, it 202 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,839 Speaker 1: made me less bullish on Conceptsion, though I do think 203 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: he has a legit shot to lead that team in 204 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 1: targets this year. And when I compare how I feel 205 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 1: about Conceptsion versus the market, I'm higher on him. And 206 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: part of that is the talent profile for sure, but 207 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: also I think this Browns team could look very different 208 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: as early as twenty twenty seven, and they knew that 209 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 1: when they made those two wide receiver picks. I've got 210 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 1: a lot more wide receiver stuff to talk about today, 211 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: but let's shift our focus to running back really quick. 212 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: There were a lot of teams out there this year 213 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: who could have gone after a running back, but they didn't, 214 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: and that means the players who were already on those 215 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 1: rosters they were big winners from a fantasy football perspective. 216 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: Jacksonville was one of them. There were some rumors flying 217 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 1: around pre draft that they were really interested in Jenaium Price, 218 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 1: but to me, if they were gonna make a splash, 219 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 1: it was likely gonna be on Day three. I felt 220 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: they were fairly set with their trio of bay Shall, Tuton, 221 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: Chris Rodriguez, and Laquinn Allen, and they didn't draft a 222 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: single running back out of ten draft picks. As I 223 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: said last year, all roads lead to bay Shall Teuton. 224 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: The Bengals maybe could have gotten helped too, they could 225 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: have gotten the running back direction, but they clearly are 226 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: cool with Chase Brown. He's now survived multiple drafts. I 227 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: thought Chicago was another team they could have maybe gotten 228 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: a Day three to one. But this was a very 229 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: big draft for Kyle Mnungai. He's gonna see a good 230 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 1: amount of touches in a good offense this year, even 231 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: if his receiving ceiling is kind of capped. The Texans 232 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,679 Speaker 1: added David Montgomery this offseason, and they didn't get a 233 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 1: running back. Montgomery low Key might be a great fantasy 234 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 1: pick this year. The Giants were rumored to be in 235 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 1: on Jeremiah Love, and they not only didn't get him, 236 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:20,440 Speaker 1: but they didn't get a single running back in this draft, 237 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: which was smart. I love the Cam Scannaboo Tyrone Tracy combination. 238 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 1: It makes a lot of sense as a pairing but 239 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 1: teams do weird things, and the Giants were, like I said, 240 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 1: they were rumored to do one of those weird things. 241 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 1: But it was a good draft for their running backs. 242 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: And then you could also look at a team like 243 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: Dallas or even Green Bay. I mean, the Packers depth 244 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: chart right now is Josh Jacobs okay great, and then 245 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: it's Chris Brooks, Marshawn Lloyd who can't stay healthy, Pierre 246 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: Strong and Damian Martinez. A lot of names that we've 247 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: talked about before, but no one who's really established themselves 248 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: in the NFL because Emmanuel Wilson's now in Seattle. So 249 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: with those teams, it was a big win for the 250 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: guys who were already there. Now. On the flip side, 251 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: some of the teams who really needed running back help 252 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 1: in this draft Tennessee, Seattle, Washington, Minnesota. Those are the 253 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: teams that really come to mind. The only one of 254 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: them to really spend up with Seattle. We now have 255 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: Nick Singleton, k Tron Allen, and DeMont Claiborne as big 256 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: Risers post draft. Given the situations that they fell to 257 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: and because this draft class is so weak, their rookie 258 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 1: draft ADPs are soaring and I don't even really disagree 259 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: with it, given the opportunity cost involved in drafting those 260 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: guys in rookie drafts now. I like Nick Singleton most 261 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: because I thought he was the most complete running back 262 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:40,199 Speaker 1: of the three coming out k Tron. Allen's a bruiser, 263 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 1: He's a dog, and I definitely think that he can 264 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 1: compete for that early down work in Washington right away, 265 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: at least the goal line work with Demon Claiborne. He's 266 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: a super quick running back. He can take on some 267 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: receiving work, but he's also sub one hundred and ninety pounds. 268 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: He's likely not going to be a bell coow. I 269 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 1: do think he works really well in tandem with like 270 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,199 Speaker 1: a Jordan Mason player. I really wanted the Vikings though, 271 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: to get Emmitt Johnson to eventually replace Aaron Jones, but 272 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 1: Claiborne could have been worse as a fit. Singleton, though, 273 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: has the high upside profile there's a low floor, but 274 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: he's big, he's athletic, and he has a good age 275 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 1: adjusted receiving profile. It's a great combination, and Tony Pollard 276 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: and Tajy Spears could both be gone next year. They're 277 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 1: both free agents now day three picks, they don't work 278 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 1: out at a high rate at all. We're not talking 279 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 1: about Jeremiah Love here, which, by the way, I'm not 280 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: going to talk about Love on today's show, just because 281 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: it's kind of obvious that he's gonna be fantasy relevant. 282 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: He's gonna get a lot of work. But maybe later 283 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: this week on the mailbag, someone can ask me a 284 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 1: question about Jeremiah Love. But anyway, Day three draft picks 285 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 1: they don't have a high hit rate at all. But 286 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: I did do some research on this last year, and 287 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 1: it's not surprising, but when Day three running backs do 288 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: work out as rookies, it's almost always from ambiguous backfields. 289 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: In fact, in that study last year, I looked at 290 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 1: all Day three running backs since twenty one who gave 291 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: us a particular number of top twenty four and top 292 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: twelve weeks, top twenty four and top twelve weekly performances. 293 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: I waited all a certain way, but it gave me 294 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 1: a sample of eleven relevant running backs from Day three. 295 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 1: James Robinson, Bucky Irving, Alfred Morris, Jordan Howard, Damian Pierce, 296 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: Eli Mitchell, Zach, Stacy Tyrone, Tracy, Jamal Williams, and Roy 297 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: hullou and I'm defining day three as players picked after 298 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: pick one hundred. Only Jordan Howard and Bucky Irving from 299 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: that group had teammates drafted in the top twenty at 300 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: running back In season long leagus, the median was more 301 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 1: like RB thirty RB thirty one, meaning the market didn't 302 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 1: know who the top back was going to be in 303 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 1: that backfield at least very confidently, there was opportunity for 304 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: a Day three pick to emerge. With Day three picks, 305 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 1: especially Day three running backs. And to be honest, I'm 306 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: not counting round four in this as much as round five, six, 307 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 1: and seven, But with Day three running backs, unless the 308 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: profile is just undeniable, I really am just trying to 309 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 1: gain value from year one to year two. I don't 310 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: have high hopes for long term viability. I think Emmett 311 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: Johnson's profile is very very good, so I'll still buy 312 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: in there. But even the ZAP model suppresses those kinds 313 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: of profiles, and it doesn't care as much as it 314 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: would if that profile was selected on Day two. Emmett 315 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: Johnson is a Day two running back looks a lot 316 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 1: better analytically than Emmett Johnson is a Day three running back. 317 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 1: The production metrics just don't matter as much for a 318 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: Day three back. So to put that all another way, 319 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: I do think Singleton, Allen, and Claiborne should be thought 320 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: about in this class. You should consider them. You have 321 00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: at least a shot to gain value from year one 322 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: to year two. And the alternatives in general in this 323 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: class at wide receiver, they're just weak. The opportunity cost 324 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: in drafting one of those Day three running backs in 325 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 1: your rookie draft is not that high, and Nick Singleton 326 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 1: just happens to be my favorite. Okay, back to the 327 00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: pass catchers, the Jets basically did the same thing that 328 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 1: the Browns did, but in reverse they got the very 329 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: expensive tight end and then they followed that up with 330 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: a pretty expensive wide receiver. I mean, this just sucks 331 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 1: all around. They took Mason Taylor last year, a guy 332 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 1: that zat Model really didn't like because his production wasn't 333 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:17,360 Speaker 1: that great and he's dust now from a fantasy football perspective. 334 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 1: Kenyan Sidik, though I talked about him at length on 335 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 1: last week's show. I think he's a great prospect, and 336 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 1: when people talk about his production profile being bad, they're 337 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 1: really ignoring age. In my opinion his yards per route run. 338 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 1: It's comparable through three seasons to other elite tight ends 339 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 1: in the NFL. It's just that those elite tight ends 340 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: played more than three seasons in college. I'm optimistic that 341 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,400 Speaker 1: Gino Smith can be better behind a better offensive line 342 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: in New York than he was in Vegas. But to 343 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: expect him to sustain Garrett Wilson, Kenyan Sadik, and Omar Cooper, 344 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: who the Jets took at the end of round one, 345 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 1: that's a tall task. I also hate that Sadek and 346 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 1: Cooper They're built for yards after the catch, so I 347 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: fear that they're going to be competing a lot for targets. 348 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 1: Not good thing. And then all the while they have 349 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: Breese Haaw out of the backfield, who also takes a hit, 350 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 1: but for Sadik in particular, as Brandon Gadola noted in 351 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 1: the Prospect Guide with his Sadiq rite up, offensive coordinator 352 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 1: Frank Reich has a history of being tight end friendly 353 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,639 Speaker 1: across ten seasons where he was the team's OC or 354 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 1: head coach. His teams are ranked outside the top twenty 355 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: and tight end target share just once. They were top 356 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 1: five four different times, so because of that and just 357 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: the overall profiles. I prefer Sadiq to Omar Cooper and 358 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 1: rookie drafts. Cooper's age, justin production profiles just average according 359 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 1: to the model. I actually think the Jets offense could 360 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 1: be okay this year, genuinely, but this is sort of 361 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 1: like the Browns, except there's already a near elite wide 362 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: receiver on that team. Now. Fortunately, things can change fast, 363 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: and the Jets had the draft capital for that to happen. 364 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: Don't lose sight of that. I want to take a 365 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 1: second and talk about the Dolphins in their wide receiver room. 366 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: They entered the draft with Jalen Tolbert two too at 367 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 1: well Malik Washington. As they're starting wide receivers, they need 368 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 1: to do something in the draft. They went out. They 369 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 1: drafted Caleb Douglas, a shocking pick in round three, and 370 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,239 Speaker 1: then it took Chris Bell, who honestly went later than 371 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 1: I expected. And then Kevin Coleman, a slot guy. He 372 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:19,360 Speaker 1: was a Day three pick. Coleman actually has an ok 373 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,439 Speaker 1: production profile, but he was pretty much only a slot 374 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 1: player in college. I'd imagine Malik Washington gets run over 375 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 1: him this year. So as a dart throw he's definitely 376 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,400 Speaker 1: more of a taxi squad guy. Chris Bell's coming off 377 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 1: of that ACL But the upside is there. He's built 378 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 1: like AJ Brown. Just don't comp him to AJ Brown. 379 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 1: Bell has very average, ah, justin production. AJ Brown's was elite. 380 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: But in this draft class, I'm all for going for 381 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 1: that upside. There's downside with literally everyone in round two 382 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 1: and beyond in your rookie drafts. I don't mind Coleman, 383 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 1: I don't mind Bell. Caleb Douglas though, that was a 384 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 1: head scratcher. He wasn't projected to go in the top 385 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: two one hundred according to NFL Mock Draft database, and 386 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: it made sense as to why. Among all zapmodel wide 387 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 1: receivers since twenty twenty, Douglas had a twenty fifth percentile 388 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,199 Speaker 1: breakout score, a twenty eighth percentile career yards per hour 389 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 1: run rate, a fifteenth percentile best season yards per out 390 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: run rate, and a twenty third percentile first downs per 391 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 1: rout run rate. I mean, the list goes on and on. 392 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: It's just not a good analytical profile. Now. I'll talk 393 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: about Douglas later to wrap things up, But to me, 394 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: from an upside standpoint, Chris Bell is the clear winner 395 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:32,919 Speaker 1: here and maybe even Devon a Chan, who now has 396 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 1: a better shot at maintaining his crazy high target share. Now, 397 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,160 Speaker 1: speaking of wide receiver investments, there were teams who didn't 398 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: invest in the position. That was really surprising to me, 399 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 1: especially given all the Day two draft picks at wide receiver. 400 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 1: The Patriots didn't take a single wide receiver, another hint 401 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 1: that aj Brown could be coming their way. They did 402 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 1: take an interesting tight end prospect ninety fifth overall, though 403 00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: in Eli Raridan, Minnesota could have taken one of the 404 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: day didn't either. But there are two teams where I 405 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: kind of was shocked by their level of investment. The 406 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: first was the Raiders. They had an opportunity to take 407 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,679 Speaker 1: Elijah Surrat in round four and they passed on him 408 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 1: to start that round. Sarratt looks good in the ZAP 409 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,399 Speaker 1: model compared to draft capital, and he comped to a 410 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: lot of big slot wide receivers like a Michael Thomas type. 411 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 1: And it sounds like Baltimore sees that too, based on 412 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 1: some of the quotes post draft. That could be really 413 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 1: fun for Elijah Sarrat. But Sarat played with Fernando Mendoza 414 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 1: last year. He was Mendoza's contested catch guy, and the 415 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 1: Raiders didn't get him, despite their starting wide receivers entering 416 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: the draft being Trey Tucker, Jalen Naylor, and Jack Besh. 417 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 1: They did get Malik Benson later in the draft, but 418 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: he's mostly a deep threat. Honestly, I don't see the 419 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:52,479 Speaker 1: allure of him with Trey Tucker on your roster, so 420 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 1: that was a surprise for sure. Brock Bauers is probably 421 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 1: gonna be fed this year. And then there's the Colts. 422 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: I recently did a redditt Ama and someone asked me 423 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 1: what the last trade that I had done in Dynasty was. 424 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 1: This was pre draft, and the trade that I called 425 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: out was that I sent the two to eight in 426 00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 1: a rookie draft for Josh Downs, which today I'm feeling 427 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 1: great about that. I had mentioned Downs being an interesting 428 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: by candidate earlier in the offseason, with there being an 429 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: off chance that the Colts didn't do much to invest 430 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 1: in wide receiver, and they didn't. They only took Dion 431 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 1: Burks in the last round. Someone who profiles as a 432 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 1: slot Josh Downs is better than Dion Burks. That means 433 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 1: that at this moment, in two wide receiver sets, for Indianapolis, 434 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 1: Josh Downs is competing with Nick Westbrook Akine. I've said 435 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 1: for a while that I think Downs can handle that, 436 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,199 Speaker 1: and now he should get that opportunity, though there are 437 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,879 Speaker 1: still some useful veterans out there that the Colts could sign. Overall, though, 438 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 1: I do think this was a sign that the Colts 439 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,120 Speaker 1: are ready for Josh Downs to take a bigger role 440 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: in that offense. I'm crossing my fingers this is finally 441 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,360 Speaker 1: the year that we see our favorite slot guys get 442 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: more reps. Those guys being Josh Downs and Jaden Reid. 443 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 1: The Saints just went all in on Tyler Shuck. I'm 444 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: all about it. When you have a player like Shuck 445 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: who's potentially borderline like you don't know for sure that 446 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 1: he's the absolute future, you surround him with weapons, give 447 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: him everything that you can so you can properly evaluate 448 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: him without many excuses. So what did the Saints do? 449 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 1: They get the wide receiver one in the zap model 450 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 1: on Jordan Tyson in the top ten. Matt Harmon's reception 451 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: perception had Tyson as a huge zone beater and a 452 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 1: lave is great against man and Tyson's going to eat 453 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 1: up a lot of those intermediate throws from shuck in 454 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: a fast paced Kellen Moore offense. I love the fit. 455 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,879 Speaker 1: They then get Oscar Delp, who's a crazy athlete. He 456 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: did have a questionable production profile, but Delp has a 457 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 1: lot of upside a tight end. And then they took 458 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,320 Speaker 1: another crazy athlete on day three in Bryce Lance. Lance 459 00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,400 Speaker 1: is going to stretch the field vertically and he fits 460 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,679 Speaker 1: a bigger body. He mold at wide receiver that they 461 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: don't have a ton in with Chris Lava and Jordan Tyson. 462 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 1: Lance has serious red flags with his profile, but he's big, 463 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 1: he's athletic, and you can't deny him that. I like 464 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 1: the fits here overall, and the offense is friendly for 465 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 1: fantasy given the way that Kellen Moore calls plays. Keep 466 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,960 Speaker 1: in mind, too, the Saints rand eleven personnel at the 467 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: fifth highest rate in the league last year. I don't 468 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:27,880 Speaker 1: think that's gonna change that much given these investments. Back 469 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: in January, I did my Cell Candidate's episode and R. J. 470 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 1: Harvey was on that list. He was a cell candidate, 471 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,399 Speaker 1: So take this with a grain of salt. I'm just 472 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,679 Speaker 1: gonna be open and transparent. Maybe I'm gonna come in 473 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 1: with the takes today and be a little bit biased. 474 00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: I hope not. I hope that's not the case. I 475 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,360 Speaker 1: try to think rationally about this stuff, but I've been 476 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,679 Speaker 1: lower on RJ. Harvey throughout this offseason, so keep that 477 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 1: in mind. But I do think that Harvey's dynasty value 478 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,679 Speaker 1: took a serious hit when the Broncos drafted Jonah Coleman 479 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:58,679 Speaker 1: this past weekend. The Zap Model did not love R. J. Harvey. 480 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,359 Speaker 1: He had a high risk profile, he was older, and 481 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,360 Speaker 1: his age just a production. It was fine, but not amazing. 482 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 1: I just didn't see him as a bell cow back, 483 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 1: as an obvious bell cow and I wrote about that, 484 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,359 Speaker 1: and I talked about that at the start of the offseason, 485 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 1: and now I think it's pretty clear he's not a 486 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 1: bell cow back. Jonah Coleman enters Denver and Coleman, He's 487 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: looked at pretty favorably by the Zapp Model. Outside of 488 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love, the model really liked Emmett Johnson, Jonah Coleman 489 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 1: into a lesser extent Nick Singleton. From this class, two 490 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: of the three got pretty good landing spots, and then 491 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,040 Speaker 1: Johnson's isn't terrible either. But look, I don't think it's 492 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: all that crazy to at least ask yourself if Jonah 493 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 1: Coleman is the better prospect between himself and RJ. Harvey. 494 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,400 Speaker 1: We obviously now have a year of NFL experience for Harvey, 495 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,360 Speaker 1: but he was also third worst among forty eight qualified 496 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: running backs last year in rushing yards over expected per attempt. 497 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 1: Harvey found the end zone a lot. He looked fine 498 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,959 Speaker 1: as a pass catcher, but it was not some incredible 499 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 1: season from him. So I asked this question to myself 500 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 1: and the Prospect Guide readers. With Jonah Coleman, is he 501 00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 1: actually the better prospect compared to RJ. Harvey? Now, the 502 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 1: ZAP model sides with Harvey, but that's simply because a 503 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 1: draft capital. I think it's closer than we probably realize. 504 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 1: In terms of zapmodel inputs, Coleman has a better pro 505 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,880 Speaker 1: rated reception share and adjusted receiving yards per team pass 506 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,439 Speaker 1: attempt Harvey. He bested him an adjusted total yards per 507 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: team play in his best season. The advanced numbers are 508 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 1: sort of a mixed bag. Coleman was an eighty ninth 509 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 1: percentile player in yards after contact per attempt, Harvey was 510 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 1: sixty six percentile. Harvey and Coleman avoided tackles at a 511 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,440 Speaker 1: near identical rate, and both were great at it in college, 512 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 1: and then Harvey admittedly is more explosive. That's a big 513 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 1: differentiator between Coleman and RJ. Harvey. But I don't know, man. 514 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 1: I think that Jonah Coleman could step in at the 515 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: very least be part of a committee and be maybe 516 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: the goal lineback. He's the same height as RJ. Harvey, 517 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 1: but Coleman weighs fifteen mores. He's just a legitimate, do 518 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,879 Speaker 1: it all back. He may not do one thing in 519 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: a very elite way, but he does everything well. I 520 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 1: think we see a three headed backfield this year with 521 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 1: the two of them in JK. Dobbins, and if Coleman 522 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 1: shows us something, which I think is very possible, I 523 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 1: would not be shocked if he's looked at more favorably 524 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,520 Speaker 1: than RJ. Harvey in the dynasty market as we enter 525 00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty seven season. Keep in mind, too, Coleman's 526 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 1: entering the league before turning twenty three years old. RJ. 527 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 1: Harvey was twenty four years old when he was drafted. 528 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 1: That's not irrelevant here. So I think Coleman is the 529 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 1: clear RB three in this class, and I don't think 530 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 1: Denver makes a move like that. If they're totally secure 531 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,680 Speaker 1: with RJ. Harvey being the workhorse in typical Sean Payton form, 532 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 1: we're probably gonna see a committee. The last thing that 533 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,399 Speaker 1: I want to get to today is a topic that 534 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,240 Speaker 1: everyone seems to be talking about on social media right now, 535 00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,239 Speaker 1: which is reaches comparing actual draft capital to consent since 536 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: draft boards. I did an episode on this actually last year, 537 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:07,159 Speaker 1: episode nine to seventy seven. I shared results of a 538 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,680 Speaker 1: study where I looked at NFL mock draft database data 539 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 1: and compared it to where players were actually drafted. And 540 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,160 Speaker 1: instead of just looking at the raw number of picks 541 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,880 Speaker 1: that were different, like instead of just saying this guy 542 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 1: was drafted one hundredth overall, but the big board set 543 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,640 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty, so that's a twenty pick difference, 544 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:27,679 Speaker 1: I used pick value, and that value was derived from 545 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,439 Speaker 1: Chase Stewart's draft pick value chart. That chart was designed 546 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,160 Speaker 1: to say that pick one is worth xen value, pick 547 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,719 Speaker 1: two is worth x minus y, pick three is then 548 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 1: worse than that, and then pick four, et cetera, et cetera. 549 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 1: So realistically, if a player was projected to go ninth overall, 550 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 1: he ends up going third overall. That's a much more 551 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,520 Speaker 1: significant jump than if he was projected to go one 552 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 1: hundred and twentieth overall and he went one hundredth overall. 553 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 1: From a fantasy football perspective, I have found that reaches 554 00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 1: generally matter at least a wide receiver. The mock draft 555 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 1: data goes back to twenty sixteen, and since that point 556 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 1: in time, there have been fifteen wide receivers who have 557 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 1: had a chance to play three years in the NFL 558 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 1: whose teams lost four more points in value in drafting them. 559 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 1: They're the fifteen biggest reaches at wide receiver from twenty 560 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:21,080 Speaker 1: sixteen through twenty twenty three. Essentially, of those fifteen, just 561 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 1: five were able to outproduce their expected B two S. 562 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,080 Speaker 1: B two S is a metric that I use in 563 00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 1: the ZAP model that represents a player's best two seasons 564 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 1: PPR points per game output across his first three years 565 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,959 Speaker 1: in the league. It takes his best two seasons and 566 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: averages them together. That's why I'm looking at players who 567 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 1: have played at least three years in the NFL. I 568 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 1: can look at history to see what type of B 569 00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 1: twos we'd expect from a wide receiver at a particular 570 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: draft slot, and historically, players who are this big of reaches, 571 00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 1: they've underperformed versus expectation. Only five of fifteen didn't, and 572 00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 1: only three of those players outperform their B two s 573 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: X by one or more PPR point. Those three were 574 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 1: Deontay Johnson, Wandel Robinson, and Kenny Galladay. What's interesting is 575 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 1: that we've had more of these players show up over 576 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,520 Speaker 1: the last couple of drafts. Pat Bryant, Chim Ray, dk 577 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 1: Arian Smith, Isaac Teslaw from last year's draft and then 578 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 1: from this year's you get Carnel Tait just because he 579 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,240 Speaker 1: was drafted so early and those picks are so valuable. 580 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 1: But even if you want to throw him out, Caleb Douglas, 581 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 1: Design Shribbling, Xavian Thomas, and Caden Wegen. Now it does 582 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 1: get better beyond that four points in value lost for 583 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,600 Speaker 1: NFL teams. And maybe this is just a small sample 584 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 1: size noise. We have to be open about that. But 585 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 1: I do think that we've seen reaching for wide receivers 586 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 1: be a bad thing historically. Now I'm running back it 587 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 1: hasn't been as bad at the extremes We've often seen 588 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 1: some big misses at the position when teams reach, which 589 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 1: scares me about Kaylon Black. He went to San Francisco 590 00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 1: on day two. This isn't new for Kyle Shanahan. Since 591 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 1: he got to San Francisco, He's now drafted three of 592 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 1: the eight biggest reaches at running back in the ZAP 593 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 1: Model database. You had ty Davis Price as the second 594 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 1: biggest reach, Black as the sixth biggest, and then Joe 595 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 1: Williams is the eighth biggest. And if you remove Round 596 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,719 Speaker 1: one running backs because Ezekiel Elliott and Jamior Gibbs are 597 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,840 Speaker 1: on that list, those San Francisco running backs are three 598 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 1: of the top six reaches at running back and ZAP 599 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 1: Model history. He's also now drafted those three running backs 600 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 1: Jordan James, Isaac Garndo, Trey Sermon, and Elijah Mitchell since 601 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 1: he got to San Francisco. Those are the running backs 602 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,080 Speaker 1: that he's taken. So, yes, Kaylon Black, he got great 603 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 1: draft capital, but the profile is still lacking and the 604 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 1: reach aspect of things doesn't make me feel that much better, 605 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:46,280 Speaker 1: especially given the history in San Francisco. But I feel 606 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 1: even worse about the wide receivers at least with running back, 607 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 1: a coach can just throw a guy on the field 608 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 1: and let him go. That's why running back doesn't get 609 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 1: as much signal with reaches. Probably, wide receivers have to 610 00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 1: get open and earn those targets. It's not just about 611 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 1: running routes. And this year we're looking at Caleb Douglas, 612 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,400 Speaker 1: design Stribbling, and Xavi and Thomas as the three biggest 613 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,720 Speaker 1: reaches outside of round one. All three have profiles with 614 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,720 Speaker 1: a lot of age adjusted red flags. I'm not surprised 615 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,000 Speaker 1: that we saw some reaches at wide receiver in this draft, 616 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 1: bringing all full circle. The drafted a lot of average 617 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 1: wide receiver profiles, so teams are going to be all 618 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 1: over the place with their evaluations. I think it's just 619 00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 1: important to not necessarily treat those three wide receivers at 620 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:35,200 Speaker 1: face value. Don't assume their draft capital is totally accurate, 621 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,440 Speaker 1: because historically the combination of poor age justin production and 622 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 1: being a huge reach in the draft, it's meant underwhelming 623 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 1: fantasy results. That makes me nervous about those three wide 624 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: receivers being huge fantasy football hits. Though to be fair, 625 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 1: I think the dynasty market feels the exact same way, 626 00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,760 Speaker 1: so it doesn't mean that I'm avoiding those players. It 627 00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:00,280 Speaker 1: just means I wouldn't spend up on them. Those are 628 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,440 Speaker 1: my general thoughts on what went down over the weekend. 629 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,480 Speaker 1: There's so much more to talk about that I didn't 630 00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 1: even get to, but I wanted to touch on the 631 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 1: things that I found most interesting. You can always read 632 00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,719 Speaker 1: more about my thoughts on this class by checking out 633 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 1: the Late Round Prospect Guide that's found on the Lateround 634 00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 1: dot com. That's it for today's show, though thanks to 635 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,720 Speaker 1: all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to 636 00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 1: the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are 637 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 1: by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, 638 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 1: and do for to follow me on Twitter and on 639 00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 1: blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening to everyone. 640 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,959 Speaker 1: We've got the Late Round Show on Wednesday on YouTube 641 00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,160 Speaker 1: and then a mailbag episode later this week. I'll talk 642 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 1: to you then