WEBVTT - Looking Back on the Future Part One 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:07.480 Brought to you by Toyota. Let's go places. Welcome to 0:00:07.640 --> 0:00:15.360 Forward Thinking. Hey there, and welcome to Forward Thinking, of 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.600 the podcast that looks the future and says it's gonna 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:22.760 be the future soon. I'm Jonathan Strickland, I'm Lauren, and 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:26.040 I'm Joe McCormick. And today we thought we would participate 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:31.400 in a quintessential forward Thinking exercise, which is analysis of 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:34.360 the prediction of the future. Yeah, we've done a couple 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:39.600 of episodes where we've talked about projections that current futurists 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:43.320 have about the future. We've even talked about really lousy 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:45.839 predictions that happened in the past. Lauren and I did 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:48.239 an episode when you were out once, Joe and I 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:49.920 remember when you came back you were sad to find 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.000 out that you didn't get to participate, where we talked 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:56.560 about really off the mark predictions from the past where 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:59.240 people were just thinking all sorts of crazy things we're 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:01.760 gonna happen by now. So we wanted to talk about 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:05.480 some of our favorites, whether they were completely off track 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:08.720 way back when, or if it's a current prediction about 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:10.479 what the future will be and what our thoughts are 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:13.720 and so what kind of all gout some notes about 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:15.320 the sore of stuff that we want to talk about. 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:18.040 My first one is actually about a series of drawings 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:24.679 postcards really from France, from one in nineteen ten. You know, 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:28.800 I'd seen these things before, and these are great, beautiful 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:33.319 they're like full color beauties that are I don't know 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:37.039 that they're not actually as cartoonish as one might imagine. 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:40.880 Some of them have some interesting detail in them. Yeah, 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:46.080 there's a lot of different, um well, different aspects of 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:48.440 what they thought the future would be like. Uh, and 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:52.160 it's all sort of fantastical. Some of them actually are 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:55.360 are pretty prescient. Uh. They were essentially thinking about what 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:57.200 is the world going to be like in the year 0:01:57.240 --> 0:02:00.120 two thousand. Yeah, So one of them, I know, it's 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:03.920 got like a barber shop where people are getting some 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:08.160 gentlemen are leaning back in very cushy looking chairs getting 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:12.040 their necks shaved by robots with razors going all over 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:15.080 the place, crazy robot arms off of off of big 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:18.679 they look like kind of like pneumatic polls that come 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:21.480 up in in intervals out of the floor. Yeah, essentially 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:23.480 like kind of like a column but with some sort 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:25.880 of pneumatic element to it. So that the arms that 0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:29.440 are bolted onto the pneumatic part could be raised or lowered. 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:34.360 When I watched those darker robotics challenge fails. The main 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:36.440 thing I think is I want one of these things 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:39.960 shaving me with a straight razor. Well, and and let's 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:42.919 let's also point out that in this particular illustration, there 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:46.840 is a gentleman uh well quoft which would not normally 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:48.800 happen if you happen to be the barber. If you 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:50.640 always know the barber in the town, he's the one 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:55.240 with the worst hair do. Oh I guess, yeah, but 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:57.160 he this guy has a great hair do because it's 0:02:57.160 --> 0:03:00.520 all done with these robot arms, although he is currently 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:05.760 operating a system, well at least a giant lever, so 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:08.440 perhaps there is at least some human power in this 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:12.080 in this system, even if it's just to turn it 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:14.280 on or off. I think what I like less than 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:18.280 the idea of robot arms shaving me um is uh 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:22.200 robot arms controlled by a person who's not looking at me. 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:26.120 That's true, that is, to the customers. I think these 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:29.519 are not autonomous shaving robots. These these are in fact 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:33.079 just like multiple extensions. You know you've got those machines 0:03:33.080 --> 0:03:36.360 where you press one button and it does like five 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:39.120 things at once. I think that's what's going on here. 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:42.760 The barber is operating a machine and the machine translates 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:47.080 all his actions into actions on five different customers at 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:49.760 the same time. Yeah, it's more. It's a more sophisticated 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:52.520 version of that old This might actually be too old 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:55.720 for you guys. But for for chalkboards, there there were 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:57.760 occasionally these things. It was like just a little board 0:03:57.840 --> 0:04:01.000 with little wire holders that you talking about multiple pieces 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:04.240 of chalking. Yeah, it was the way of cheating. If 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:07.120 the teacher told you to stay after school, right, I 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.720 will not spit in my neighbor's milk, you know times right. 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:13.840 So so it's it's like that where it's really the 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:16.320 idea is to to make it easier for one person 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:19.640 to do the work of like five all at the 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:24.359 same time. Another image has an arrow cab station. I 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:27.280 love this this picture. This is actually something that's kind 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:30.840 of interesting because, uh, right now, as we record this, 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:36.520 there's talk of Uber looking into creating vt O L 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:40.680 vehicles for taxi cabs. We talked about this. I think 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:44.680 that's a publicity stunt. No, I don't think it's a 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:47.479 publicity stunt. I think it's I think it's a company 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:54.000 that is used to making grandiose proclamations and then not 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:57.240 quite realizing what the consequences are ahead of time. I 0:04:57.279 --> 0:04:59.039 don't think that. I don't think it's so much a 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:02.080 publicity stunt as an is them rushing into an area 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:05.720 that's not quite mature. Well, I mean, like when Uber says, oh, 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:08.880 we want to have driver less supercars, I can see 0:05:08.920 --> 0:05:12.280 that being a feasible thing not too far in the future. 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:14.120 When they say we want to v t o L. 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:19.800 Uh flying taxi cap you're flying ubers? Yeah? Yeah, whatever? Yeah. 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:23.440 Well the picture, the picture from these postcards shows uh 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:27.520 tiny caps that have wings that apparently can extend or 0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:31.839 or can tilt upward so they can doc with a 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:34.800 landing station, and then they have propellers on the front 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:38.160 that allow them to fly. Obviously that would not be 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.880 the case with the the Uber approach. They're looking at 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:43.000 vto L and we talked about this when we said 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:45.080 what would it take to have flying cars, and I 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:47.719 think we all agreed vo v t o L would 0:05:47.720 --> 0:05:50.960 be absolutely necessary just from a space issue, and that 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:54.240 autonomous operation would be necessary. Because we don't think any 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:58.080 human being should ever operate a flying cars unless they 0:05:58.080 --> 0:06:01.920 are like a very accomplished by islet, especially if you're 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:05.480 talking about within a dense urban setting, right. Yeah, if 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:08.360 it's out in the open and there's there's plenty of space, 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:12.400 maybe you could have like some exhibitions or whatever. But 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:16.520 if you're talking about mundane day to day operations, we 0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:20.120 want autonomy in that. Yeah. I I never want the 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:23.640 day when, uh, when a car crash results in like 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:27.839 in like fiery parts raining from the sky. That's a 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:32.000 that's not good news. Uh. I just want those people 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:35.080 operating a multi ton lethal weapon they can drive around 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:38.440 on the ground at seventy miles. I've been saying this 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:41.200 whole time that I can't wait for driverless cars. I mean, 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:43.960 I'm just I want to make that clear. Uh. No, 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:45.839 I want to point something out because I've looked at 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:49.000 a bunch of these postcards, these French postcards you're referring to, 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:53.839 and a whole lot of them involve flight. Many of 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:56.280 them do, I would say from my memory, just more 0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:59.600 than half of them involved flying humans of one type 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:01.799 or another. Well, and that's the thing, it's always humans, 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:04.600 Like the concept of flying robotics I don't think had 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:08.839 occurred to to anyone doing this postcard series, particularly like 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:10.280 like one of the other images that you that you 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.680 added to our show notes here has a fireman with 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:17.560 these like kind of bat looking wings that are that 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:19.600 are putting out of fire. It's essentially like they're all 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:24.080 wearing jet packs, except instead of jets, they are flapping wings. Yeah. 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:27.000 Yeah uh. And and there are several in the series 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:29.760 that are similar to that. I only included the fireman 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:32.960 one because it was such a beautiful picture of these 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:37.200 people who are are are flying through the air using 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:40.840 water hoses to fight fires and to their you know, 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:43.520 flying up to rescue a baby. And can I point 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:46.040 out that in this picture if I'm understanding what the 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:49.960 artists meant correctly, so the firefighters have these bat type wings, 0:07:50.000 --> 0:07:53.560 and I believe the wings are secured to their ankles 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:57.240 via some kind of connecting strap. So it looks like 0:07:57.280 --> 0:07:59.880 what the artist had in mind is that the firefly 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:04.040 or is held aloft in the air by flapping wings 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:08.880 that are powered by the firefighter's own leg movements. They 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:13.520 could also be pneumatic. It's hard to say that particular 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:17.800 image it's very difficult to say, but you see, I 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:20.440 haven't noticed that before. But yeah, that's that's very well. 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:21.840 If you if you look at some of the other 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:24.160 ones from the series, there's another one where there's a 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:29.000 police officer who's pulling over an aviator who has clearly 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:32.800 done something naughty, and so the police officers wearing wings 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:35.920 that are that extend out from his back, but has 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:39.360 a tail as well, presumably to provide stability. I mean, 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:42.920 we're not crazy and uh that, but the tail is 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:46.000 attached to his ankles, So he's got he's got these 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:48.640 tethers that essentially go from the tail to his ankles, 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:54.000 and he's in an upright position with respect to the 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:57.079 airplane that he's trying to pull over. Not entirely certain 0:08:57.360 --> 0:09:02.440 how he's maintaining altitude well in a vertical position with winks, 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:05.840 you would think that would pretty much cause you to plummet. 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:10.320 But in the future, physics will no longer apply. Uh well, 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:11.760 I and I did. I did want to mention that 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:15.120 you know, we're we are this year we've been fighting 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:18.720 fires with drones. Yeah, no, yeah, we're starting to see 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:20.920 and we've also seen issues with drones getting in the 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:23.120 way of firefighters. But it's nice to see them being 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:27.960 used in the in scoping out the the um like 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:30.680 how big a fire is, like how far does it stretch? 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:33.480 And also to get a good look at places that 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:37.040 would obviously be dangerous to send a person into without 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:40.280 first checking out what's going on. But we don't attach 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:42.720 a drone to a person and send a person in 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:46.040 because that's crazy, because that's obviously terrible. Yeah, that would 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:49.920 be not so good. Also, there's another element in some 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:52.400 of these and you know, I didn't include all of them. 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:55.560 I included you know a few, but if you go 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:58.200 to there's a website the public Domain review dot org 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:00.800 who has the entire collection as since Lee of all 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:04.320 the ones that have survived, then they're gorgeous. There's a 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:11.160 collection of them. Also where another big theme was underwater activities. Yeah, 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:16.319 there were there people riding on seahorse, giant seahorse. In 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:18.679 the future there will be giant sea horse. There's giant 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:22.600 sea horses. There's one where they're there, uh, doing the 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:25.600 equivalent of a horse race, except they're all riding very 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.640 long eel like fish. Uh. There's another one where they 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:35.240 are fishing for seagulls. So they're throwing hooked lines up 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:37.959 through the surface of the water. Seagulls grabbed them, and 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:43.280 then they dragged the seagulls underwater, presumably to their deaths. Uh. 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:44.920 I don't know why you would want to do it, 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:48.400 drowning birds for fun. I guess that's no more horrifying 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:52.400 than pulling fish, which breathe underwater out into our atmosphere. 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:56.200 Maybe I think it's a little more. And I like 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:59.640 fish better than I like birds, so I'm sort of 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:03.400 okay with it. All right, Well, Lauren the seagull murderer, Sorry, 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:08.280 I'll know that. Speaking of disturbing uses of birds, there's 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:12.840 another one of these images that is just titled intensive breeding, 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:16.960 and it is a picture of a woman who I 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:20.120 think is working on an egg farm with a basket 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:23.720 full of eggs and she's attending this big refrigerator sized 0:11:23.840 --> 0:11:27.079 machine that has lots of little yellow chicks coming out 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:30.800 of it on a slide. Yeah. Yeah, you put the 0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:33.400 eggs in the top and chicks come out. They get 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:36.960 to write a slide. What's what's so sinister about that? 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:39.880 I don't know what is this machine supposed to be doing. 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:42.319 I think it just hatches eggs faster than a than 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:46.080 a chicken could. Apparently I don't buy magic and technology. 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:49.120 There's one that I think is actually kind of kind 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:53.320 of interesting. There's the electric scrubbing one, where it's a 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.800 showing a machine that is used to brush and scrub 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:01.439 the floor. This again is being operated by somebody a 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:04.040 maid at this point off to the side, so it's 0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:06.480 not fully autonomous. Who in the year two thousand is 0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:10.679 still wearing something that looks strikingly like like Edwardian made attire. 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:14.280 That's something that we wanted to mention too, is that, Joe, 0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:16.440 You brought this up earlier today when I was telling 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:17.800 you this was going to be something I was going 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:22.600 to talk about. So while the technology uh seems to 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:25.040 be kind of an advanced version of what they had 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:28.560 available to themselves in these visions, when it comes to 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:35.079 things like costume and uh and and hairstyles, everything remains 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:39.440 exactly of that era. They can imagine the technology changing, 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:43.120 but they can't imagine the culture changing exactly. Yeah, you 0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:48.720 don't see any representation of other ethnicities either, Yeah, well, 0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:50.439 and and in and in these cases, I mean, it's 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.320 it's certainly not as though other other work from about 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:57.040 the same time period didn't portray like like futuristic in 0:12:57.240 --> 0:13:01.760 big honking quote marks um quote marks, Yeah, but I 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:06.599 like them, um uh a future futuristic fashioned um in 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:14.160 another another science fiction and science presumptuous materials um but 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:16.400 but yeah in this particular case, it's it's part of 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:18.040 its charm. But but yeah, so so this so this 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:22.200 cleaning device is essentially a very large, manually operated room 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:25.240 by yeah, yeah exactly, and and it's kind of this 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.400 also kind of plays into something else I want to 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:30.920 talk about, just in general when it comes to make 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:34.640 predicting the future. Two things. One was that that idea 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:39.320 that we find it very difficult to imagine how people 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:43.320 change along with technology. Right We we sit there and 0:13:43.320 --> 0:13:45.120 we look at the technology, say well, here's what the 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:47.600 technology is going to be like in another fifty years, 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.160 but it's hard for us to imagine what people will 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.600 be like at that time. Can I offer a possible 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:55.319 reason for that? Sure? I would think that that might 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:59.520 have something to do with the fact that technology changes 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:04.400 along a predictable path, in that you don't know exactly 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:09.000 what solutions technology will will represent, what it will come 0:14:09.080 --> 0:14:11.600 up with, but you sort of know what problems it 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.880 will be trying to solve, unless you're imagining a very 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:17.320 far future where there are new problems that haven't even 0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:20.480 emerged yet. But all these problems are things that people 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:24.320 understood at the time and were things that people actually 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:27.960 wanted done. They wanted robots to make work easier, they 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:33.040 wanted the power of flight, they wanted faster transportation, they 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:38.440 wanted automation. All these things are real obvious concerns when 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:42.240 you're trying to predict the future of culture, like what 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:45.920 how clothes will look different? You don't have that same 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.240 prompt you You can't say, like, I know what problems 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.760 future fashion you know fashion designers will be trying to solve. 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:55.920 It's just not something you can predict. It's not a 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:59.640 linear change pattern. You could probably predict that whatever the 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.880 fashion is of that particular era, it would be some 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:07.160 sort of take on the fashion from twenty years previous. Yes, 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.280 that's usually a pretty good rule. And furthermore, it's really 0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:15.240 difficult to predict how technologies like that could change us, 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:18.640 like like what like how those technologies would be changing 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:21.280 the culture that would lead to those kind of differences 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.760 in appearance and uh, and day to day life all 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:26.400 of that sort of thing, like like you can sit 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:28.560 there and imagine that they like, yes, there's going to 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:32.040 be this this cleaning robot, but you're still hiring a 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:35.880 maid to operate it, right, Yeah, And I'm not I 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:39.240 don't really want to call out the artists of that 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:42.360 time period for being particularly silly or whatever. This is 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:44.880 true for every era, right yeah, yeah, like it just 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:48.880 beautiful examples example. Yeah, and I would I would also 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:50.920 say these things are probably made with some sense of 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:54.520 humor about them. Sure, I'm just saying I can't imagine, say, 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:58.240 being in the nineteen eighties and being able to anticipate 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:01.240 like the man Bun. It just wouldn't have occurred to me. 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:04.160 Never would have never would have thought that that would 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:07.160 become a thing. This isn't even me judging. I'm just 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:09.360 saying that in the eighties I never would have huh 0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:11.440 that that would have been a big deal. Like it 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:14.280 would have been one of those deals where someone had 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:16.360 shown me a picture and I'm like, well, what, why 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:18.680 is what's the he where did you get this? What 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:21.400 if in the nineteen eighties somebody told you people will 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:26.440 be making multimillion dollar live action transformers movies. I mean 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:28.560 I would have at the time thought that that would 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.880 have been brilliant, because it would have been before Michael 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.680 Bay got a chance to do that. Wait, how would 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:38.360 you even imagine that the nineteen eighties live action transformers 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:41.080 that didn't even make sense. I be able to imagine 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:42.720 it in the nineteen eighties. I was a kid. I 0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:46.480 could imagine that I was a giraffe. Okay, come on, 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:48.720 I mean as an adult it's a lot harder, but 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:53.320 as a kid limitless. So also I wanted to mention 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.920 that that the other issue, because I said there were two. 0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:58.800 The other issue with predicting the future, especially when it 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.920 comes to technology, is that we typically look at what 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.760 is available today, we look at the things that we 0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:09.280 are currently trying to develop right now, and then we 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:11.640 just sort of project based upon that. Right we sit 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:14.080 there and say, okay, let's extend outward from where we 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:17.400 are now and where we look like we're headed. But 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:20.320 that means we we can't and by definition, we cannot 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:24.680 anticipate any innovations that come out of left field that 0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.880 changed the game entirely, which means that by the time 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:30.359 we get to that future and maybe that certain things 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.640 we thought were promising turned out to be dead ends, 0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:35.520 other things we hadn't even considered might be the norm. 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:37.920 A great example of this would be back in the 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:42.080 nineteen fifties when everyone was building electronics with vacuum tubes. 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:44.359 No one at the point that point in the early 0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:48.159 fifties was really anticipating the that transistors were going to 0:17:48.280 --> 0:17:51.720 one become small enough to really become an important electronic 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:54.720 component and to replace vacuum tubes. And that's why you 0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:58.440 get these predictions about giant computers in the future, right 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:00.959 because back then, if you were using vacuum tubes, they 0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:03.119 take up a lot more space than transistors do, and 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:05.200 it would mean that if you want a really powerful computer, 0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:07.119 you'd have to have a lot more vacuum tube. So 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:10.240 it's the reason that a very very powerful computer would 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:13.280 be enormous the size of a building are bigger. So 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:18.159 because of that, we find it amusing to see some 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:20.040 of these predictions. But we have to keep in mind 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:23.080 that we're doing the same thing, right, We're making predictions 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:26.119 based upon where we are right now. Uh And by again, 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:29.600 by definition, we cannot anticipate something that comes out of 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:34.200 seemingly nowhere. Uh. So I don't want to heap too 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:40.560 much uh jovial uh disdain or anything like that towards 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:43.360 people who have made these predictions. I prefer we heap 0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:48.240 saturnine disdain other than all the time. Yes, of course. Well, 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:50.760 the other one I wanted to talk about, which is 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:56.080 a little less less whimsical, I would say, is the 0:18:56.200 --> 0:19:01.080 driverless car predictions, because I mentioned us a few minutes ago. 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:06.560 I love the idea of a society that has driverless cars, 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:10.680 especially if driverless cars are the primary vehicles on the road. Yeah. 0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:15.520 I try not to be overly sanguine about naive, optimistic 0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:19.120 future predictions, but I feel like this is one I've 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:23.960 always been pretty optimistic about and remain pretty optimistic about, 0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:26.800 even though even though we've now seen some tragic accidents 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:30.120 with driverless cars. I think, I don't know, I I'm 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:32.280 I'm pretty bullish on this one. Yeah, I think I 0:19:32.280 --> 0:19:34.800 think it's completely possible, just there are so many kinks 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:38.600 to work out before it's practical. I think the kinks 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:41.560 are mainly on the political side and social side as well, 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:44.840 and not so much on the technological side there. So yeah, yeah, exactly. No, 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:47.080 I mean because because mostly like like we we technically 0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:49.720 have the technology to to have all of these devices 0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:52.400 talking to each other. We just need a the rules 0:19:52.400 --> 0:19:55.840 and regulations in place that will make companies make their 0:19:55.880 --> 0:20:03.800 products talk to each other and and beh uh build it. Yeah. Well, 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:08.479 well we also need to get people on board literally 0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:11.919 and figuratively with the idea of driverless cars. Yeah, I 0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:17.760 mean you've got you've got an expectations problem in that people. Essentially, 0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:20.840 it's like, you're not gonna hold driverless cars to the 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:24.160 same standard that you would hold cars with human drivers 0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:28.800 who can take personal responsibility to drive. Human drivers are 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:32.480 already so bad at driving driverless cars. I don't think 0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:35.480 you're gonna have a problem of being worse than human drivers. 0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:37.879 But the problem is it's not okay for them to 0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:41.000 just be better than human drivers. They essentially need to 0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:45.119 be perfect well, and when it comes to driverless cars. 0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:50.040 So I would say that that the truly, the truly 0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:55.320 autonomous cars that are out there, not not like Tesla's autopilot, 0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:58.240 but the truly autonomous cars out there have demonstrated that 0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:00.600 they based upon the number of my as they've driven 0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:06.600 without any uh major accidents, that they are by far 0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:10.119 better than human drivers if you look at them, you know, 0:21:10.200 --> 0:21:14.679 for a million miles and how many accidents are are represented. Um, 0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:19.960 it's pretty cut and dry that they're superior. Uh. When 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:23.480 you get to autopilot, then that's not supposed to be 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:26.959 an autonomous system that's not intended to be. People treated 0:21:27.040 --> 0:21:29.399 as if it is, and that's a that's a problem. 0:21:29.920 --> 0:21:33.280 We're talking about public opinion. It's all about perceptions, right, 0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:35.800 and and also there's this public opinion. So so the 0:21:35.880 --> 0:21:38.960 Verge ran a piece recently in which they referenced a 0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:43.119 poll where people were asked US drivers were asked about 0:21:43.280 --> 0:21:46.000 their opinions on self driving cars. One of the questions 0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:49.480 they were asked was that, um, they were given choices 0:21:49.520 --> 0:21:52.719 between different levels of autonomy. So a level five autonomous 0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:56.240 car would be one that's fully autonomous and has no 0:21:56.240 --> 0:22:00.160 no control system for a human. Level four would will 0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:03.000 have control systems that humans could use. And everyone's like, 0:22:03.080 --> 0:22:05.960 I don't want level five. Not everyone like I don't 0:22:05.960 --> 0:22:09.520 want level five, I want level four. Like I absolutely 0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:12.000 want to be able to rest control from the system 0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:14.960 if I need to. I think they're they're anticipating a 0:22:15.000 --> 0:22:17.240 scenario where they really want to be able to run 0:22:17.280 --> 0:22:21.240 somebody over with their car on maybe maybe, But the 0:22:21.240 --> 0:22:25.760 immediately I realized that that's a terrible problem for people 0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:27.240 to say, I want to still be able to take 0:22:27.280 --> 0:22:29.520 over a control of this car. I get it that 0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:32.879 if you find driving enjoyable and you still want to 0:22:32.920 --> 0:22:35.720 have that experience occasionally, I get it. But if you're 0:22:35.720 --> 0:22:38.600 talking about taking over control of the car after it's 0:22:38.640 --> 0:22:41.560 under autonomous control, what you're really talking about when you 0:22:41.600 --> 0:22:44.560 boil it down is two drivers struggling for control of 0:22:44.560 --> 0:22:46.800 the same vehicle at the same time. Even if you 0:22:46.840 --> 0:22:50.080 have an autonomous vehicle that can very quickly figure out 0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:53.080