Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and a Marie Hordern. Join us each
Speaker 2: day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and
Speaker 2: geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We
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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Karen Murphy of
Speaker 2: Castra Investment Management, writing, we are modestly overweight equities, with
Speaker 2: lower exposure to mega camps in favor of mid cap,
Speaker 2: a tilt towards non us, and a focus on owning's growth.
Speaker 2: Kara joins us now for more. Kara, good morning, Good morning.
Speaker 2: Let's get to their last line earnings growth.
Speaker 3: Where are you seeing it? Where's it coming from?
Speaker 4: So I think we definitely had a pause heading into
Speaker 4: second quarter, and that's sort of what we're going to
Speaker 4: be chewing through over the next couple of weeks as
Speaker 4: we make our way through earnings season. But what is
Speaker 4: so important and what is usually important in earnings season
Speaker 4: is getting the view of the second half. And I
Speaker 4: think what we're finding is that CEOs are coming in
Speaker 4: a little bit bolder about what the second half looks like.
Speaker 1: They're able to sort of like.
Speaker 4: Take that slower growth in the second quarter, but then
Speaker 4: see a real reacceleration into the second half of.
Speaker 3: The year where they getting cloarnity on policy from.
Speaker 1: I don't think they are saying it.
Speaker 3: Lisa is not saying, you saying.
Speaker 4: I think what they're able to do. And this is
Speaker 4: where time is all of our friend. Right when tariffs
Speaker 4: are first introduced in early April, it was this huge
Speaker 4: change and people didn't really understand even what the implications
Speaker 4: were for their supply chains. Over the last couple of months,
Speaker 4: many CEOs have been able to sharpen their pencils, understand
Speaker 4: where those implications are, sometimes diversify their supply chain so
Speaker 4: that they're less sort of behold UNTI let's say China,
Speaker 4: where that's sort of been ground zero for tariffs, and
Speaker 4: also be able to forecast different scenarios. So again, this
Speaker 4: doesn't say that policy isn't an impact. I think policy
Speaker 4: uncertainty is still a really big challenge, but being able
Speaker 4: to have that time to work through it really makes
Speaker 4: it much easier, be able to manage through.
Speaker 5: Is the air getting very rare for some of these stocks,
Speaker 5: and John was asking for the whole the totality of
Speaker 5: the morning saying, you know, not good enough, not good enough,
Speaker 5: and that seems to be the read through from bank stocks.
Speaker 5: Is that a sort of wider spread phenomenon throughout the
Speaker 5: stock market.
Speaker 3: So when we.
Speaker 4: Came into earlier this year, one of the main risks
Speaker 4: that we saw were high valuations in a very concentrated market.
Speaker 4: With the rebound that we've had more recently, we still
Speaker 4: have those same exact risks and so that's really a
Speaker 4: big reason why we're leaning a little bit more into midcaps,
Speaker 4: a little bit more into non US. So, yes, I
Speaker 4: think that's a challenge, but it's a challenge for certain names.
Speaker 4: And then you mentioned financials. I think that's a really
Speaker 4: interesting area where these names got some really nice lift recently.
Speaker 4: So I think some of the maybe like lackluster reaction
Speaker 4: to the earnings is more a reflection of what the
Speaker 4: stocks have done recently. And I think importantly, as we
Speaker 4: look through those bank earnings, what we see is pretty
Speaker 4: decent and underlying economic growth, and I think again that
Speaker 4: augurs well for second half earnings growth.
Speaker 1: In general, it feels very volatile.
Speaker 5: There's been a lot of volatility at a headline level.
Speaker 5: When you actually look at the move index, which is
Speaker 5: implied volatility and treasure yields, it's pretty low. When you
Speaker 5: take a look at the average BIX, it's come down
Speaker 5: pretty significantly. Do you just sort of sit on your hands,
Speaker 5: decide what you like, buy it, go on vacation.
Speaker 4: I like to describe the first half of the year
Speaker 4: as the Van Winkle market.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 4: If you had gone to bed on January first, woken
Speaker 4: up at the end of June, you'd be like, I
Speaker 4: did a great job, Like.
Speaker 3: I feel really good.
Speaker 2: I wish I had, right, don't We always?
Speaker 5: Many levels carry on, right, But the challenge is that
Speaker 5: we all lived through that.
Speaker 1: The jury is is that experience.
Speaker 4: That experience helped us sort of live through what we're
Speaker 4: going through now. And I think over the weekend, we
Speaker 4: saw this new introduction of tariffs and the market just
Speaker 4: didn't react, right. The market has reacted less and less
Speaker 4: with every new tariff announcement because and this is important,
Speaker 4: because the assumption is that the Trump administration is not
Speaker 4: going to accept a recession in exchange for its trade agenda.
Speaker 4: If that breaks, then I think we have a very
Speaker 4: different market. But as long as that holds, the market's
Speaker 4: going to be like, Okay, you can tinker at you
Speaker 4: as you will, but we're not going to face a recession.
Speaker 3: So all is good. How do you justify the tilt
Speaker 3: and non US at the moment?
Speaker 4: So this has been a challenge for US investors for
Speaker 4: a very long time, and we talk with a lot
Speaker 4: of investors who are frustrated with owning anything outside the
Speaker 4: S and P. Five hundred and Over the years, you've
Speaker 4: seen again higher and higher concentration US stocks around the world,
Speaker 4: higher and higher evaluation differentials between those. But it's been
Speaker 4: largely justified because of stronger growth in the US. I
Speaker 4: think as we're moving from a very unipolar free trade
Speaker 4: world to a multipolar world where maybe US is a
Speaker 4: little bit less dominant, I think we start to see
Speaker 4: capital flows outside of the US, and then on top
Speaker 4: of that you have maybe a little bit of a
Speaker 4: narrowing of the differential and growth rates, a little bit
Speaker 4: of a narrowing of that valuation different.
Speaker 2: What is the European growth story? I can get excited
Speaker 2: about what is it?
Speaker 4: So it's like it's a little bit better than what
Speaker 4: it was before, and that's what's important. So they do
Speaker 4: there is a lot of infrastructure spending that's happening, and
Speaker 4: so it's just that incremental growth. It's not necessarily that
Speaker 4: it's going to take off going forward, but it's priced
Speaker 4: for a slower growth environment than what I think we
Speaker 4: see in the next couple of years.
Speaker 5: The growth story is fewer holidays, that's what we're learning
Speaker 5: for us. For us, sure, yeah, but in France right
Speaker 5: the idea that you're going to take two holidays out.
Speaker 1: I just wonder, you know what this horde of.
Speaker 5: Debt management and sort of when debt is too much discussion,
Speaker 5: whether that's really going to come into.
Speaker 1: Play with bond vigilantes.
Speaker 5: It seemed to be picking on Germany, even though German's
Speaker 5: debt to GDP ratio is really good. It's not as
Speaker 5: though they're particularly overly indebted, and yet you've seen yields
Speaker 5: on the long end climb there too.
Speaker 4: I think if there's anybody who needs the finger pointed
Speaker 4: out that has a debt problem, it's the US, and
Speaker 4: as I think about, one of the largest challenges that
Speaker 4: the US faces, and a really intractable problem, is the
Speaker 4: amount of debt that we have. And clear it is
Speaker 4: Republicans and Democrats who have contributed to this. This is
Speaker 4: not a political issue. This is an American issue. We
Speaker 4: like to spend money, and so far the debt markets
Speaker 4: have given us a pass right. For many, many years,
Speaker 4: we have really really low interest rates. Now that's changed,
Speaker 4: and that's why the equation really has to change. But
Speaker 4: I don't think we're going to tackle it anytime soon.
Speaker 3: Kara, it's good to see you. Thanks for dropping by.
Speaker 2: Karen Murphy there of Chestra Investment Management, PARTO GOO of
Speaker 2: New Street Research joins us now with a by rating
Speaker 2: on Nvidia and a price target of two hundred per
Speaker 2: joins US now pre welcome to the program.
Speaker 3: It's a change of policy.
Speaker 2: What kind of change does it make, what kind of
Speaker 2: difference does it make for this company?
Speaker 6: Well, John, is literally a change of twenty See when
Speaker 6: you look at the last couple of years, Nvidia has
Speaker 6: been able to ship chips in China.
Speaker 3: On enough.
Speaker 6: As like the ex force rules varied over time. So
Speaker 6: like earlier this year, we had like a very strict
Speaker 6: like tightening of the rule that created a potential shortfall
Speaker 6: for Nvidia of like eight ten billion dollars, you know,
Speaker 6: over what was left of the year. And now there
Speaker 6: is an easy and again of these of these restrictions.
Speaker 6: We had a similar situation last year and the year
Speaker 6: before lust So I would say this is back and forth.
Speaker 6: You shouldn't read too much into it. I think the
Speaker 6: reality is that you have a situation with three major metrics.
Speaker 6: One is making sure we protect like the US leadership
Speaker 6: in AI. The second one is making sure we don't
Speaker 6: completely cut off the relationship with China, because as Brandon mentioned,
Speaker 6: China has very important elements into the AI race, like
Speaker 6: the are rare smart adioles. And the third one is
Speaker 6: that of course the US government, the US insestion is
Speaker 6: very careful to protect the interest of US companies, and
Speaker 6: so this situation always creates a back and forth. It's
Speaker 6: good sometimes to tighten the rules to slow down like
Speaker 6: the progress of China, but at the same time doing
Speaker 6: too much of that favors China is developing their own
Speaker 6: supply chain, and it's good to maintain the leadership of
Speaker 6: US companies globally. So it's good, as Jensen said that
Speaker 6: they keep selling in China and you have like the
Speaker 6: right balance to find over time, and that would be
Speaker 6: the way I look at it.
Speaker 5: Pierre, how much is in Video's fay really dependent on
Speaker 5: the close relationship that Johnson one has with President Trump
Speaker 5: and the fact that move over Tim Kirk, he's the
Speaker 5: new tech ambassador for the United States.
Speaker 6: Well, you could almost invert the question. You know, how
Speaker 6: important is it for President Trump to make sure that
Speaker 6: he has like a strong ally in Yensen, like the
Speaker 6: number one or let's say one of the number ones
Speaker 6: you know, tech uh, tech tech leaders and uh. And
Speaker 6: we know that the relationship with Ilan musk Is is
Speaker 6: a bit south these days, so I think it's very
Speaker 6: important to to maintain strong relationships and uh. And yes,
Speaker 6: I think there is no real situation where the US
Speaker 6: administration wouldn't have a careful here to the concerns of Jensen,
Speaker 6: because the success of Nvidia is what matters the most
Speaker 6: to the US maintaining their leadership in AI development. And
Speaker 6: I think that that's what we have read in the
Speaker 6: in the trip to China our Fiens and his comments
Speaker 6: and his ability you know to speak before the White
Speaker 6: House and commitments from the White House tells you a lot.
Speaker 6: But how much darkening power he has in the in
Speaker 6: the conversation, But.
Speaker 2: A lot, apparently, Pierre, quite a lot based on the
Speaker 2: experience of the last few days. Per favorite of New
Speaker 2: Street Research pre thank you, sir, Devon run As Citizens
Speaker 2: down grading goldment sanks to market perform ahead of the results,
Speaker 2: writes in quote, the bar is now much higher for
Speaker 2: another lego, Devin joins us. Now for more, Devin, We've
Speaker 2: come a long way. We've had a big rally for
Speaker 2: most of these banks coming into this earning season.
Speaker 3: What do you make of what you've heard so far?
Speaker 7: Yeah, hey, Jonathan, good quarter. We thought it would be
Speaker 7: a good quarter. We were quite a bit above the street,
Speaker 7: but they still beat our numbers. And so what we're
Speaker 7: seeing is terriffs were actually pretty good for trading, and
Speaker 7: so we'll have to see now that kind of the
Speaker 7: terriff volatility has died down a little bit, what the
Speaker 7: back half of the year looks like for trading. But
Speaker 7: then on the other side, investment banking activity is really
Speaker 7: re excelerating. Remember in April we were questioning whether this
Speaker 7: is a pause or a break for investment banking right now,
Speaker 7: it looked like it was clearly a pause. And now
Speaker 7: all that activity that was kind of put on the
Speaker 7: back burner is now moving to the front burner. So
Speaker 7: we're seeing a pretty substantial reacceleration. Announced MINA volumes are
Speaker 7: tracking up twenty percent every year, even with losing a
Speaker 7: couple of months. IPO number of IPOs in the US
Speaker 7: are up eighty percent, So we feel really good. You know, Goldman,
Speaker 7: we just we put a buy on it at two
Speaker 7: hundred dollars back in twenty twenty, so now it's seven
Speaker 7: hundred dollars. You know, the bar is higher. And that
Speaker 7: was really what the call was.
Speaker 3: Do you see enough in the numbers this morning? At last?
Speaker 3: The question the Dan right, Devin, or are you sticking
Speaker 3: with the thesis?
Speaker 7: Yeah, we're sticking with the thesis. Listen, it's a great company.
Speaker 7: And our thesis was, you know, they're taking market share
Speaker 7: and people don't really realize it. And then also they're
Speaker 7: growing their asset management business, particularly in alternatives, and people
Speaker 7: don't appreciate how much assets they're raising. And so I
Speaker 7: felt like we had a differentiated call. And now we've
Speaker 7: become more consensus. So we're just looking for opportunities where
Speaker 7: we still have differentiated calls. But listen, you had a
Speaker 7: great quarter and I actually think the outlook again trading
Speaker 7: is going to be a little bit of a question
Speaker 7: market in the back half of the year because the
Speaker 7: Terra volatility did help. But Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley too,
Speaker 7: they're gaining market share, so you have the market backdrop
Speaker 7: which your volatility helps. Then on top of that, both
Speaker 7: firms are actually taking market share and trading you Goldman's
Speaker 7: really leaning in on their prime brokerage business. So we
Speaker 7: feel really good about the tone of the business. We
Speaker 7: want to reevaluate on the stocks here and consolidate some
Speaker 7: of these games we've seen.
Speaker 5: We've heard a pretty study story across all the bank
Speaker 5: earnings about how study the consumer is, how businesses are
Speaker 5: gaining confidence, and there's a feeling that everything is chugging
Speaker 5: along with a greater degree of certainty.
Speaker 1: Than on April.
Speaker 5: Second, I'm just wondering if this is a broader economic
Speaker 5: kind of read through, as John's been asking all morning,
Speaker 5: or if this is something that really indicates the banks
Speaker 5: have been much more cautious with who they led to
Speaker 5: the credit worthiness of all of their clients.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, I think what we're seeing and what
Speaker 7: we're hearing is that, you know, there's obviously always tail
Speaker 7: risks here, and I think people are cautious to make
Speaker 7: sure that there's a lot of macro events that are
Speaker 7: occurring at tariffs are still uncertainty there, there's geopolitical risks,
Speaker 7: and so I think there's obviously a sense of, you know,
Speaker 7: cautiousness just to be careful that you're not getting yourself
Speaker 7: in trouble. But overall, the trendsit I think banks are
Speaker 7: seeing right now and that we're talking to both investors
Speaker 7: and CEOs about, is that things are good out there.
Speaker 7: You know, the consumer is in still a very good spot.
Speaker 7: The low end of the consumer is being more affected
Speaker 7: by inflation, and there's maybe a little more challenges here,
Speaker 7: but more broadly, the consumer is in a great spot.
Speaker 7: And then companies, as you see an investment banking activity
Speaker 7: or leaning back in so they're going back on offense,
Speaker 7: m and A volumes are picking up. Companies are feeling
Speaker 7: good about raising capital, their stock prices that are at
Speaker 7: all time high. So I think there's a really good
Speaker 7: sense of kind of optimism in the market right now
Speaker 7: from both corporates and consumers, and that's what I think
Speaker 7: we're going to hear from virtually all banks through earning season.
Speaker 5: Here, there's really a question about whether this is a
Speaker 5: pivot point where some of these banks that have been
Speaker 5: treated as other utilities for the past ten years can
Speaker 5: become more growthy, especially if they start to get deregulated
Speaker 5: to the point where they can compete more aggressively with
Speaker 5: private asset managers.
Speaker 1: Do you see that as a likelihood this year?
Speaker 7: Well, I mean, if you listen to JP Morgan's call yesterday,
Speaker 7: a lot of questions on fintech, a lot of questions
Speaker 7: on stable coins and tokenization. So I think the conversation
Speaker 7: is evolving a little bit. You know, banks are still
Speaker 7: I think obviously, you know, steadier types of business models
Speaker 7: and they're not going to take a lot of risk.
Speaker 7: But this this world of kind of less regulation, I
Speaker 7: think is starting to creep in and I think it's
Speaker 7: going to be a tailwind for banks over the next
Speaker 7: couple of years. And then on top of that, I
Speaker 7: think another catalyst here is consolidation. You're starting to see
Speaker 7: a little bit of bank mergers. It's going to be
Speaker 7: in the kind of the small mid sized banks, but
Speaker 7: I think that's going to be very valuation enhancing and
Speaker 7: I'd look to the back half of this year to
Speaker 7: start to see some of that, and I think that
Speaker 7: will be a catalyst for the broader group, something that
Speaker 7: we really haven't seen over the past four years.
Speaker 2: So Devin just drove down on some of that. As
Speaker 2: you mentioned earlier, some of these ideas became very consensus,
Speaker 2: Goldman being one of them, and it's certainly performed. If
Speaker 2: you were looking for something non consensus, something a little
Speaker 2: bit different in this sector, maybe the broader industry group,
Speaker 2: what would you look for.
Speaker 7: Yeah, so we're kind of some of the large cap
Speaker 7: names I think are pretty well owned right now. You know,
Speaker 7: it's kind of the index plays. So we're looking at
Speaker 7: some of our mid cap coverage show company like Stiefel,
Speaker 7: which kind of looks like Morgan Stanley in terms of
Speaker 7: wealth management and institutional exposure, but you know, much more
Speaker 7: reasonable valuation at kind of eleven times our exit twenty
Speaker 7: twenty six earnings level, you know, but still get some
Speaker 7: of those really good exposures. Then they also have a
Speaker 7: pretty good leverage to Bank m and A with their
Speaker 7: KBW business, so kind of that theme that we just
Speaker 7: talked about. So that would be one. A small cap
Speaker 7: advisory boutique called Pirella. Weinberg is a name we really like,
Speaker 7: so we want to be selective here just after these
Speaker 7: really big runs. And then i'd also in regional banks,
Speaker 7: as I just mentioned, with bank consolidation and deregulation, I
Speaker 7: think that could have a bigger impact on their business
Speaker 7: models as well. So broadly that is a kind of
Speaker 7: an index play.
Speaker 2: I Devin, appreciate it. Thanks for giving us some time,
Speaker 2: busy money for you. I know they haven't run there
Speaker 2: as citizens joining us around the table a potential candidate.
Speaker 2: They form a wealth bank president David Maltcas David and morning,
Speaker 2: good Mornington. Would you like to be considered?
Speaker 3: Of course.
Speaker 8: So it's a huge job and really important, really important
Speaker 8: to the Trump changeover that's going on in the world,
Speaker 8: saving the country. So but it means a lot of
Speaker 8: change at the FED. I think they've been making many
Speaker 8: mistakes and we can enumerate them and correct them and
Speaker 8: that will mean more growth and especially more growth and
Speaker 8: median income. If the FED were allowing more small business growth,
Speaker 8: there'd be more jobs that are that are new jobs
Speaker 8: for people across the across the country, not just in
Speaker 8: urban areas.
Speaker 3: Let's get into some of the details.
Speaker 2: Walk us through a couple of the examples where you
Speaker 2: think they've made mistakes and the remedies for them.
Speaker 3: How it correct?
Speaker 8: Course, you know, I didn't like que think about QUI
Speaker 8: that the Fed and its wisdom is going to go
Speaker 8: buy bonds. So how did that work out? They've lost
Speaker 8: a trillion dollars. They'll lose much more than that before
Speaker 8: they're done with the losses on the bonds. In addition
Speaker 8: to that, remember they've paid out in interest constantly since
Speaker 8: two thousand and nine. They've paid one point three trillion
Speaker 8: dollars of tax payer money to banks and to money
Speaker 8: market funds. That's the source of funding that they have
Speaker 8: to buy the bonds. So this has been the worst
Speaker 8: hedge trade in history. So that's a big mistake. It's
Speaker 8: also led to inflation because the federally allowed a merger
Speaker 8: of fiscal policy and central banking or monetary policy by
Speaker 8: buying bonds, as the government was really jacking up the deficit.
Speaker 2: So you're rather running go ready because I have to
Speaker 2: say isn't that exactly what the president would like to see?
Speaker 1: What would he like?
Speaker 2: President Donald Trump would very much like to see minitary
Speaker 2: policy and fiscal policy very well allowed.
Speaker 8: No, I think he wants to see them both improved,
Speaker 8: and is already doing that. The reconciliation built improves fiscal
Speaker 8: policy and the separation. What we need is lower interest rates,
Speaker 8: and you can't do that if you've got the FED
Speaker 8: carrying the load of all this fiscal deficit that Congress
Speaker 8: is generated.
Speaker 5: So in the near term, as a candidate yourself, what
Speaker 5: do you do as a potential new FED shair to
Speaker 5: the composition of the Fed and the approach that you think.
Speaker 1: Right size is?
Speaker 8: I think really important is people to see the flaws
Speaker 8: of the inflation targeting model. I've been writing about this
Speaker 8: since then, literally since the eighties, that if you target
Speaker 8: inflation as your goal, it's backward looking and it doesn't
Speaker 8: comprehend all of the prices within the economy. It's just
Speaker 8: a flawed indicator. But that is the basis of how
Speaker 8: the FED sets interest rates. So one of the things
Speaker 8: is you switch and you say the dual mandate is
Speaker 8: to have price stability. That's very different from CPI inflation,
Speaker 8: which waivers around and gives you false signals. That's what's
Speaker 8: happening right now. So you need lower interest rates because
Speaker 8: of the strength of the US economy. I think that's
Speaker 8: something that I understand a lot from working all over
Speaker 8: the world and in Wall Street in financial markets, that
Speaker 8: the US is the giant power and people want to
Speaker 8: invest in the US even at lower interest rate.
Speaker 1: Okay, this is a fascinating argument.
Speaker 5: It's one that President Trump has talked about, the idea
Speaker 5: that it should be almost a credit rating of the
Speaker 5: United States that backs what our interest rates should be.
Speaker 5: So like Microsoft or an Apple, the borrowing costs should
Speaker 5: be very low. People are pegging it to inflation, and
Speaker 5: they're pegging it to growth. I'm just wondering the market
Speaker 5: doesn't see it that way, right. We're not there yet,
Speaker 5: So at this point, how potentially perilous is this discussion
Speaker 5: at a time where the market associates lower interustrates with faster.
Speaker 1: Inflation and frankly higher borrowing costs For the United.
Speaker 8: States, the market's inbred with the FED, and so as
Speaker 8: long as the FED is the sheriff of the land,
Speaker 8: the market is going to say, oh, we operate on
Speaker 8: that model. But as you change to a model that
Speaker 8: makes more sense, one that's based on the growth and
Speaker 8: credit of the US has something to say about what
Speaker 8: the interest rates are that we should pay. That can
Speaker 8: be a smooth, safe transition, but it has to be explained.
Speaker 8: Markets adjust. Think of what's going on on tariffs now,
Speaker 8: there was a giant panic that didn't materialize. The change
Speaker 8: in the FED system is as big as the change
Speaker 8: that we need in the trading system, and it will
Speaker 8: work better for growth and especially better for the forgotten man.
Speaker 8: The median income has been doing very poorly over these
Speaker 8: maybe twenty years, and so if you have a new
Speaker 8: system that's very focused on defending the dollar, the dollar
Speaker 8: is the global reserve currency, and then people flooding into dollars,
Speaker 8: that's actually supportive of markets.
Speaker 3: Seconds left. Have you spoken to the president about the role?
Speaker 8: I don't want to talk about the process. What I
Speaker 8: really want people to focus on is the models that
Speaker 8: need to be changed. We can have a much faster
Speaker 8: growth economy with different FED models, and it can be
Speaker 8: done with the confidence that is absolutely necessary.
Speaker 2: We can have a longer conversation about that next time.
Speaker 2: Sarah appreciate your time. Thanks and best the luck the
Speaker 2: former World Bank President David Malpass. This is the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, angio politics.
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