1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,560 Speaker 1: This is Tom Rowland's Reese and you're listening to Switched 2 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:05,560 Speaker 1: on the podcast brought to you by BNF. Today we're 3 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: discussing BNF's Electric Vehicle Outlook, our annual flagship report, analyzing 4 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: how electrification will impact road transport between now and twenty fifty. 5 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 2: In the very near. 6 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: Term, electric vehicle sales are set for yet another record 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: breaking year. That's a big deal, especially since headlines have 8 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 1: focused on how the US is slashing support for evs. 9 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: But the EV story isn't just about the US. It's 10 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 1: a global story and the number of countries getting into 11 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: the EV game is growing. The biggest player is China, 12 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: which continues to lead the EV adoption pack. Over fifty 13 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:36,919 Speaker 1: percent of new passenger vehicle cells in China this year 14 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: are set to come with a plug. China is also 15 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: a star when it comes to sales of range extender evs, 16 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 1: which are now the fastest growing drivetrain in the world. 17 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 1: Even outside of its own borders, China is making a splash. 18 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: The market for electric vehicles was once considered top down, 19 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,599 Speaker 1: with developed economies moving first, but Chinese automakers have been 20 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: targeting developing economies hard As a result. Thailand now has 21 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: a higher passenger EV adoption rate than the US, and 22 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: Brazil's adoption rate is higher than Japants. To learn more 23 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 1: about this global EV story, I'm joined by bnif's head 24 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: of Clean Transport, Colin Mcherica, to discuss the Electric Vehicle 25 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 1: Outlook twenty twenty five, which bn EF clients can find 26 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: at BNF go on the Bloomberg terminal or on BNF 27 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: dot com. All right, let's get to talking about the 28 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 1: Outlook for electric vehicles with Colin. Colin, thank you for 29 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: joining the podcast today. 30 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 3: Pleasure to be here. Nice to speak to you. Tom. 31 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: We're here to talk about what we at BNF call EVO, 32 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: which stands for our Electric Vehicle Outlook. You've been doing 33 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 1: this for a really long time, so can you tell 34 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: us a little bit about the history of it and 35 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: what is new Because we do this again and again 36 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 1: every year, presumably we don't need to just update our 37 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 1: numbers every year. I'm assuming that we do new and 38 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: cool things and that's what keeps us going because that's 39 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 1: how it is at BNF. We always have to do 40 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 1: something new. 41 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, So I've been doing this. I was sort 42 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 3: of tallying it. 43 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 4: This is actually the tenth year that I've run this report, 44 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 4: and obviously a lot has changed since then, and I 45 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 4: would say sometimes it feels now like everybody and their 46 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 4: dog has a forecast for how this type of stuff 47 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 4: is going to evolve. I think back in twenty fifteen sixteen, 48 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 4: when we were doing the first one, there was kind 49 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 4: of a few oil companies plus Opek, who are putting 50 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 4: out long term outlooks, and their view was very down 51 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 4: on anything to do with electrification and basically saying liquid 52 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 4: fuels or what's going to power the world's mobility mix indefinitely, 53 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 4: and none of them saw any significant role reviews, and 54 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 4: we sort of thought, look, we've been looking at this 55 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:29,519 Speaker 4: battery cost curve stuff for a while. 56 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 3: We think we're on the cusp of something about to change. 57 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 4: So when we try and do things at BNF, we're 58 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 4: always trying to do things with what's useful for our 59 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 4: clients and as well try and inform a public debate 60 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 4: as well. But at the first instance, be useful to 61 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 4: our clients and provide data to that's helpful. And so 62 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 4: whenever you get into long term stuff, you always have 63 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:48,799 Speaker 4: to be a bit careful because I have a sort 64 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 4: of thesis that the further you go out in time, 65 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 4: the fewer people that is operationally useful for. So if 66 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 4: you go all the way out to twenty forty and 67 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 4: spend a lot of time talking about twenty forty and fifty, 68 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,119 Speaker 4: you just kind of lose people some people along the way. Now, 69 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 4: it's not to say there aren't useful and interesting things 70 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 4: to talk about those long term parts, but you have 71 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 4: to balance it with some near term things that are 72 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 4: going on. So that's kind of what gets out. Your 73 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 4: other question is about what do we do that's beyond 74 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 4: just updating this outlook every year, because we have our 75 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 4: models and we have our adoption outlook that follows two 76 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 4: different scenarios and all this sort of stuff, and that 77 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 4: gets updated with the latest data. But then we do 78 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 4: try and say, okay, how can we keep making this 79 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 4: better every year? And after ten years you just keep 80 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:28,520 Speaker 4: incrementally improving things, and sometimes that's new countries added. This year, 81 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 4: we've done a bunch of things. We've added a new 82 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:34,639 Speaker 4: drive train, so there's something called range extended electric vehicles 83 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 4: that are included in there, and we've done more on 84 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 4: terrace and trade. How that's impacting things looked at some 85 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 4: of the regional dynamics for things like flex fuel vehicles 86 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 4: in Brazil or compressed natural gas vehicles in India, and 87 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 4: and you have to do a lot of work on 88 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 4: batteries and the supply chain, so there's a whole new 89 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 4: forecast there for solid state batteries, looking at electrolyte chemistry 90 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 4: as well as updating our anode and bathout chemistry forecasts. 91 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 4: And then also looking at all the battery plants that 92 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 4: are coming online over capacity issues that are sort of 93 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 4: not just looming but actually here in that market. And 94 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 4: then lastly the three other things we've done this year. 95 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 4: Each year we do three what we call thematic highlights, 96 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 4: so those are sort of special standalone chapters that look 97 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 4: at a growing or topical issue around emobility around the world. 98 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 4: So this year's were the commercialization of solid state batteries, 99 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 4: the rising cost of ev charging, and a special deep 100 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 4: dive on Brazil looking at alternative ways that Brazil's ethanol 101 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 4: could be used in a scenario where electrification displaces a 102 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 4: lot of ethanol use in road transport. 103 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: It sounds like you've gone above and beyond, because before 104 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: you got even to talk about those thematic highlights. I 105 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: was thinking, Wow, this is already a really complex year, 106 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: particularly with all the tariffs coming in and maybe changing 107 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 1: the picture, as you say, especially if we're trying to 108 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 1: make sure we talk about things that are relevant for 109 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 1: the next few years. I mean, was it more of 110 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,679 Speaker 1: a headache doing EVO this year than in previous years. 111 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 4: So one of the things I've found after a decade, 112 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:00,679 Speaker 4: it's ten years now working for me work on auto, 113 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 4: automotive related topics and transport related topics, and twenty years 114 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 4: now working in clean energy overall. 115 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:06,840 Speaker 3: I started in May two. 116 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 4: Thousand and five, and particularly on the auto stuff, I've 117 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 4: just kind of realized it's something every year, it's always 118 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 4: something different, but there's always something that kind of is 119 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 4: a big spanner in the works for what you might 120 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 4: think of as this business as usual that never seems 121 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 4: to go back to usual in the auto sector. And 122 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 4: so for a while that was COVID and okay, look, 123 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 4: how do you how many cars are people going to buy? 124 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 4: What if people aren't moving around as much, what does 125 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 4: it do to energy demand? And keep in mind that 126 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 4: we're not just looking at how many cars get sold, 127 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 4: We're looking at this work is what informs all of 128 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 4: our things around the road, fuel demand outlook and how 129 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 4: much gasoline and diesel are going to be consumed and 130 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 4: all these other things as well. So we're definitely not 131 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 4: just looking at cars and trucks sold. We're looking at movement, 132 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 4: and we're actually at the basis level starting with literally 133 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,239 Speaker 4: how much do people and goods move around the world, 134 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 4: So that's in freight ten kilometers and trillions of passenger 135 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 4: kilometers traveled, and how is the mix of that changing. 136 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 4: So with those sort of big, really big picture things 137 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 4: in mind, and the auto industry is about a two 138 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 4: and a half trillion dollar annual revenue industry, they're kind 139 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 4: of affected by everything. So one year it's COVID, the 140 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,280 Speaker 4: next year it's a semiconductor shortage, the year after that 141 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,160 Speaker 4: it's tariffs and trade drama. There's kind of always something, 142 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:12,159 Speaker 4: and to be honest, that's sort of what keeps it interesting. 143 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 4: You could sort of look at that and sigh and say, oh, 144 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 4: why can't we have a normal year, But another way 145 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 4: to look at it would be like, wow, we get 146 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 4: to work on some of these topics where the biggest 147 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 4: things in the world are relevant and are directly impactful, 148 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 4: and I think automotive is a pretty fascinating lens to 149 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 4: look at the world through because it does tie in 150 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 4: technology developments, it tried ties in economics and trade, It 151 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 4: ties in politics, It ties in job creation and manufacturing 152 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 4: and industrial policy, and kind of each one of these 153 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 4: things is sort of getting flexed in a different way 154 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 4: in every year, So it makes it hard, it makes 155 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 4: it interesting. It also means that every time we finish 156 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 4: publishing it, there's already things that have changed, and there's 157 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 4: things that we wish we could have had time to include. 158 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 3: But that's just sort of part of the game. 159 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 4: And that's part of doing it as an annual thing 160 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 4: and not trying to constantly release this over and over 161 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 4: throughout the year, but rather sick once a year we're 162 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 4: going to step back and try and tie it all together. 163 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 4: The rest of the year we're publicishing much more near term, 164 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 4: detailed work, and this is the once a year where 165 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 4: we sort of step back and try and figure out 166 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 4: how it all fits together. 167 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 1: It's really interesting. You know, what I'm hearing is kind 168 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 1: of this electric vehicle outlook. It is literally a forecast 169 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: of the electric vehicle sector. But to what you're saying 170 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 1: is it's like a lens through which you have to 171 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: look at everything going on in the world. It kind 172 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: of makes sense. I mean we've talked about this before. 173 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: I remember I found this chart on what used to 174 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: be called Twitter, and it was a map of the 175 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: world showing every country's top import really like, so it 176 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: was a map showing what was the nature of global trade. 177 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: And the most imported physical goods were either cars or oil, 178 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 1: and you know you're looking electric vehicles, which is disrupting 179 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: both of those industries. So in a sense, it's not 180 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 1: surprising that it's like you say that it touches on 181 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: everything that matters to your report. We were chatting before 182 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 1: we started recording. You know, you've been doing the rounds 183 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: promoting this report, and I think you said it was 184 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: a list of eleven key takeaways that you'd come up with. 185 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: I didn't know if it was a word, was takeaways. 186 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: I think you had a better word, But could you 187 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: talk us through you know, I think we have time 188 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: to talk through all eleven and you know, our clients 189 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: can access our reports, and I think we're putting out 190 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: a webinar, But what were some of the more important ones? 191 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure, and so yeah, when we finished the report, 192 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 4: the report has hundreds of figures, it's a couple hundred pages. 193 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 4: There's all sorts of stuff in there, and each one 194 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 4: of our client we serve a lot of different client 195 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 4: types and different sectors and different roles, so each one, 196 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 4: each person gets a slightly different an organization gets a 197 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 4: slightly different area. It has a slightly different area that 198 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 4: they're going to be the most interested in. So I 199 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 4: would say there's lots in there and people can go 200 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:37,439 Speaker 4: and read it. We try and draw out a few 201 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 4: just that are make good presentation slides and things, and 202 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 4: so some of them I guess, just kind of starting 203 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,079 Speaker 4: from the top, is this is going to be another 204 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 4: record breaking year for EV sales. So we're pretty confident 205 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 4: on that. About one in four vehicles sold in the 206 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 4: world this year will be a plug in either battery 207 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 4: electric or plug in hybrid. 208 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 3: So that's up from about twenty percent last year. 209 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 4: If we look at the fleet, about four percent, so 210 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 4: one in every twenty five five cars on the road 211 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 4: in the world was electric. 212 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 1: And was this what you were expecting going into the analysis, 213 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:08,679 Speaker 1: because I know you say it'll be a record Yeah, 214 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 1: I feel like you know, like a lot of BNF 215 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: sectors where we're looking at things that are emerging. That's 216 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 1: what we've said every year, but I know there's been 217 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: a few headwinds. So were you genuinely surprised at this 218 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:19,559 Speaker 1: finding or were you kind of expecting it? 219 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 3: I was expecting that. 220 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 4: I mean, if you work on electric vehicles, especially, you 221 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 4: hear every year about all the reasons why it's going 222 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 4: to fail, and then it goes up between twenty and 223 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 4: sixty percent a year. 224 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 3: That's been pretty consistent. 225 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 4: I think what's probably different this year, and that we 226 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 4: do talk a lot about in the report this year, 227 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 4: is that the US market is set to slow down 228 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 4: pretty dramatically, and whatever happens in the US has an 229 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 4: outsized impact on the headlines that you read, because a 230 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 4: lot of the new sources or groups covering things our 231 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,200 Speaker 4: English speaking and the US is obviously a pretty dominant 232 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 4: force in a lot of areas. So if you were 233 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 4: to follow the US headlines, it's quite dark. And we 234 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 4: have dramatically reduced our US ev adoption forecast because of 235 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 4: things like the Trump administration rolling back cafe and taking 236 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 4: dismantling arts of the Inflation Reduction Act. And so certainly 237 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 4: that is a very real dynamic, and that is a 238 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:07,839 Speaker 4: I don't want to downplay that. If we're going to 239 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 4: get large scale electrification in the US, we need the 240 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 4: US market to go electric as well. We're not we 241 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 4: don't take a position on whether that should happen, but 242 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 4: just by the very nature of the size of the US, 243 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 4: it's an important part of the global vehicle mix. So 244 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 4: just to give a sense of that, last year in 245 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 4: our outlook, we had about forty eight percent by twenty 246 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 4: thirty of vehicle sales in the US coming. 247 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 3: With a plug. 248 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 4: That was again based on really tight fuel economy regulations 249 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 4: under Biden. We had all the money being pumped in 250 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 4: by the Inflation Reduction Act, the support for evs from 251 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 4: tax credits, all these things sort are coming together, plus 252 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 4: California ZEV mandate and the states that follow it. This 253 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 4: year we've dramatically reduced that because many of those have 254 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 4: been rolled back. So now we have it going to 255 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 4: twenty seven percent of sales by twenty thirty having a plug. 256 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 3: So that's both battery electrics, employment HIGHBRI and so what 257 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 3: was the number forty eight twenty seven? 258 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,959 Speaker 4: Yeah, so pretty sharp, pretty sure drug, and to be honest, 259 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 4: there's actually some downside, further downside risk to that because 260 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 4: the outlook assumes that California does retain its waiver and 261 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 4: the Trump administration has gone after that and as of 262 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:10,839 Speaker 4: now remove that, which is a decision that will get 263 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 4: tied up in the courts and is being tied up 264 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,679 Speaker 4: in the courts. And to be honest, this was all 265 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 4: just happening as we were publishing, So our position was 266 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 4: let's keep it in there. But it means that to 267 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 4: that twenty seven percent by twenty thirty, there's still a 268 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,319 Speaker 4: fair bit of downside risk because if California loses that 269 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 4: ability to set its standards and that holds up in court, 270 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 4: then we would see that for cast go down even further. 271 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 2: Did you ki Anamba? 272 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 4: We haven't yet, but that's kind of the next thing 273 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 4: up is to figure out how much further that goes 274 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 4: down in that case. But just to kind of give 275 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 4: a sense of scale, the US is not a huge 276 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 4: part of the overall TV market today. The biggest market 277 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 4: course is China, and one of the interesting findings, sometimes 278 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 4: one of the most interesting charts. So it came right 279 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 4: at the end and I was thinking, actually China EV 280 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 4: sales this year are going to get pretty close to 281 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 4: US total vehicle sales. So well, let's make a chart 282 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 4: of that, and basically, towards the end of this year, 283 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,719 Speaker 4: we think China's EV sales. 284 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,199 Speaker 3: Will surpass US total vehicle sales. That's pretty remarkable. 285 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 4: So you see this chart where a few years ago 286 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 4: there's just a few hundred thousand evs a year sold 287 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 4: in China, and then now by the end of twenty 288 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 4: twenty five, there will be more evs sold in China 289 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 4: than total cars sold in the US. 290 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 3: And the Chinese market is still growing quickly. The European 291 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 3: market is also growing quite a bit right now. 292 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 4: Because there's tightening vehicle CO two regulations. They've backed off 293 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 4: that a bit and averaged out the CO two regulations, 294 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 4: so they don't tighten just in twenty twenty five, but 295 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 4: averaged out from twenty twenty five to twenty twenty seven. 296 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 4: But so it wasn't a very long winded way of saying, 297 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,320 Speaker 4: it wasn't a real surprise. It was sort of what 298 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 4: we were expecting that it was going to be a 299 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 4: record year. But certainly there is a lot of regional 300 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:39,959 Speaker 4: variation in that. 301 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: So It's really interesting what you're saying about the difference 302 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 1: between the US and a lot of other markets, and 303 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,320 Speaker 1: it does make me wander two things, and I say 304 00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: this as someone who's currently living in the US, is 305 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 1: is the US missing the boat on the future of 306 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:59,079 Speaker 1: the automotive sector and any aspirations of becoming a vehicle exporter? 307 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 1: So first, I what does this mean for the future 308 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 1: of the US automotive sector? 309 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 2: And then the other thing I. 310 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:06,319 Speaker 1: Wonder is, and this is maybe more of a slow 311 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: burn how quickly this begins to dig in, But is 312 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: the US going to be uniquely exposed to oil prices 313 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 1: in the future because everyone else has more of an 314 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 1: electric fleet and has less dependency. I don't know if 315 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 1: this is something you know you have thoughts on. 316 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely. 317 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:24,679 Speaker 4: In terms of the second question actually around whether the 318 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 4: US is more uniquely exposed to that, the US already 319 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 4: is more uniquely exposed to that because the efficiency of 320 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 4: the vehicle fleet is significantly lower than other parts of 321 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 4: the world and the alternatives are very limited. Right, So 322 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 4: in cert some countries, if the cost of driving goes up, 323 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 4: there's a realistic option for some people to shift to 324 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 4: public transit. Their driving distances aren't as high, and their 325 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 4: efficiency is better, whereas in the US there's very little 326 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 4: to do other than just pay it and maybe complaint 327 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 4: when gasoline prices go up, and understandably so in some cases. 328 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,119 Speaker 3: So I would say that it is already uniquely. 329 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 4: Exposed when oil prices go up and gasoline prices follow. 330 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 4: But yes, to sort of zoom out a bit from there, yes, 331 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 4: there is a real risk that the US, particularly the 332 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,719 Speaker 4: US automakers get left behind in this transition because they 333 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 4: are sort of protected right now. 334 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 3: So right now in the US, there's one hundred percent 335 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 3: tariff on Chinese EV's or Chinese made EV's. 336 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:14,679 Speaker 4: Even if they're an EV made by a Western automaker 337 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 4: in China, which I think is important because you were 338 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 4: starting to see more and more automakers make their vehicles 339 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 4: in China and then ship them to international markets, so that. 340 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 3: Means they're not exposed to the full level of competition 341 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 3: that you're starting to see elsewhere. 342 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 4: And anytime you have a market that is not exposed 343 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 4: to the full global competition, then it is possible that 344 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 4: it sort of evolves down a different evolutionary path. I 345 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 4: think one of the things that was interesting in digging 346 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 4: through this year's EV numbers in different countries is that 347 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 4: the single biggest determinant you could probably look at for 348 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 4: which countries or regions are going fast on EV adoption 349 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 4: which ones are going slower, is the ones that are 350 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 4: open to Chinese automakers are going very fast. Indeed, so 351 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 4: markets like Brazil or Thailand, or Vietnam, Turkey, Mexico, even 352 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 4: the UK. The UK doesn't have the same important tariffs 353 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 4: that the S THEU has on Chinese and the UKs 354 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 4: that has the highest level of EV adoption amongst major 355 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 4: economies outside of China, and all these other ones in 356 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 4: Southeast Asia or Latin America and other places are growing 357 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 4: quite quickly and are now have significantly higher rates of 358 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 4: EV adoption than established, wealthier markets, which kind of inverts 359 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 4: this idea that many people have had for a long 360 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 4: time that electrification starts purely at the top and slowly 361 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 4: works its way down top of the market works its 362 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 4: way down. Instead, what we're seeing is much more sort 363 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 4: of bottom up electrification happening and in many cases now 364 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 4: happening in emerging economies significantly faster than developed markets or 365 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 4: more economically developed markets, particularly those that have large incumbent 366 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 4: auto manufacturing bases, like Japan, the US, or Germany. So 367 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 4: there's some really interesting regional dynamics there. I think the 368 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 4: US is a bit at risk of sort of missing 369 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 4: this global trend and therefore struggling with some competitiveness as 370 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 4: a result. It's worth keeping in mind though, that while 371 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 4: Tesla's sales are faltering, is still a major producer and 372 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 4: has been very innovative up to date and is an 373 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 4: American company. So certainly, I don't think it's a foregone 374 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 4: conclusion that the US and the US automakers are going 375 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 4: to fall further behind on this, but certainly the policies 376 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 4: that are in place right now are pushing things in 377 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 4: that direction. 378 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 1: Right And you know, in a way, maybe my question 379 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: was predicated on the idea that the profit in the 380 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 1: future of this industry is going to be in the 381 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 1: manufacturing of the vehicles, whereas it might be in other 382 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: things like the design. You know, I know that if 383 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 1: we think of internal combustion engines, they are complex, and 384 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 1: there's real expertise in certain countries that enables those countries 385 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: to be major players in those areas. And I'm assuming 386 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 1: that's where there's quite a bit of margin. If the 387 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: majority of the value is shifting towards the battery, maybe 388 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 1: at some point becomes low margin. It might be that 389 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 1: the actual profit is not necessarily in the making of 390 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: the vehicle, but in other factors, like you know, I'm 391 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: just thinking of the difference between you know, where is 392 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 1: the money made from iPhones? Is it made in the 393 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: manufacturing of them, or is it Apple, a US based 394 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: company is making all of that money. Is that something 395 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 1: you could see happening and is that maybe the sliver 396 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 1: of hope for some countries that might feel they are 397 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: losing out on manufacturing, right. 398 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 3: It's a tricky question. 399 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 4: I mean, what I would say is that automakers over 400 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,360 Speaker 4: the last one hundred years have changed the way they 401 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 4: operate a lot, particularly around vertical integration. So if you 402 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 4: go back to the first mass manufacturing of cars, say forward, 403 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,719 Speaker 4: in the assembly line, there's a lot of vertical integration 404 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:28,640 Speaker 4: at that point because there isn't really a supply chain. 405 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 4: So if you don't have enough rubber, you're setting up 406 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 4: plantations in Brazil kind of thing. And then over the 407 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 4: last fifty years, in particular, the trend has been automakers 408 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,959 Speaker 4: divesting more and more of the process of making parts. 409 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 4: So you have these Tier one suppliers and below them 410 00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 4: tier two suppliers who are making components, and then the 411 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 4: automakers are more and more assembling vehicles. And so they 412 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 4: are incredibly complex supply chain management organizations that are really 413 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 4: good at that. They're really good at managing all those 414 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 4: delivery of all those supply chains, integration of all that, 415 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 4: assembling the vehicle, marketing the vehicle, getting them out places 416 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 4: in the right time. They're very good at that. But 417 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 4: they have sort of farmed out a lot of the 418 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 4: actual component making of different bits of the car. What's 419 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 4: really interesting right now that you're seeing is kind of 420 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 4: a trend in the other direction. So Tesla was already 421 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 4: doing this a bit, but BYD is the one that's 422 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 4: taken us the furthest So BYD is their view is 423 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:18,399 Speaker 4: sort of, whatever we can make in house, we should, 424 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 4: and so that's making the batteries. Of course, they've been 425 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:22,640 Speaker 4: in the battery making business for a long time. They're 426 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 4: making semiconductors. In some cases, they're actually buying and building 427 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 4: their own car carrying ships that. 428 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 3: Are delivering these cars around the world. 429 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 2: Wow. 430 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 4: Kind of as vertically integrated as you can go all 431 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 4: the way down to the ocean going vessels that are 432 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 4: there delivering to make. 433 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 2: Their own roads as well special yeah roids. 434 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, And so that I think is kind of the 435 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 4: interesting trend is like, Okay, does that signify something else 436 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 4: we're going to see from other automakers. 437 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 3: Is it a significant competitive advantage over time? 438 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 4: Right now it looks like it is at the sort 439 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 4: of awn of this electrical age, but it'll be very 440 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:53,679 Speaker 4: interesting to see how others react. We have seen some 441 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 4: moves from some of the others to get into cell 442 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 4: manufacturing or it potentially even take stakes in minds of 443 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 4: critical raw materials. This is kind of like a moment 444 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 4: where something that was settled for a while that you 445 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 4: should farm out as much as you can and buy 446 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 4: from suppliers where you can is now sort of up 447 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,360 Speaker 4: in the air. And I think BID is really sort 448 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,159 Speaker 4: of pushing the limits here and growing incredibly quickly as 449 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 4: a result around the world. And so that's something certainly 450 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 4: we're watching quite closely this year. 451 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: So that, I mean, that's so fascinating. So Gy, going 452 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 1: all the way back to the start of this conversation, 453 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 1: you've kind of got these eleven key takeaways. The first 454 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: one was that we expect sales to increase this year, 455 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: and we've unpacked a lot from talking about that, so 456 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: we definitely unless we have a podcast for each one 457 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 1: of these eleven pieces, we've probably got time to talk 458 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 1: about one, maybe two. We'll see how we do. But yeah, 459 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:42,679 Speaker 1: what's another of the big takeaways? 460 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,720 Speaker 3: Another one is around range extended electric vehicles. So I 461 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 3: hinted at this. 462 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 4: These are vehicles where you have an onboard engine, but 463 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 4: it's essentially running as a generator, running in a very 464 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,960 Speaker 4: constant cycle and purely being used to charge the battery. 465 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 4: The battery is always powering the wheels, the engine is 466 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 4: never powering the wheels, so there's. 467 00:19:58,480 --> 00:19:59,719 Speaker 3: A very inant unplug in hybrids. 468 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 4: But again the differences is that it's always the battery 469 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,120 Speaker 4: powering the car, and so we did a deep dive 470 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 4: on that this year and there it's quite an interesting 471 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 4: story because it's growing extremely quickly in China. 472 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 3: It's the fastest growing drive train. 473 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 4: They almost look a bit more like pure electrics than 474 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 4: they do plug in hybrids because about seventy percent of 475 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,440 Speaker 4: all kilometers traveled on these erevs or range extended vs 476 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 4: is in electric mode and some of them have quite 477 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 4: long ranges. So the average range we found of the 478 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 4: ones being sold today is one hundred and seventy kilometers 479 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 4: of all electric range, battery pack size of around thirty 480 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 4: eight kilo hours, So just a. 481 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 3: Really interesting dynamic there. 482 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:34,360 Speaker 4: And in China, those are primarily going into larger SUVs 483 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 4: that have been a. 484 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 3: Bit difficult to fully electrify costs competitively. 485 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 4: So one of the things we sort of flag is 486 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 4: that we were tracking a lot of automakers who were 487 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,199 Speaker 4: planning on launching these over the next few years outside 488 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,639 Speaker 4: of China. Can dive forward Stilantis, others, and it'll be 489 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 4: really interesting to see if that is a potential way 490 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 4: to electrify, particularly the full sized pickup truck market in 491 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 4: the US. And I think if there's something that might 492 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 4: sort of open up the US market a bit more, 493 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 4: it could be a solution like that where you still 494 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,199 Speaker 4: have all the performance and longer range, but you can 495 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,920 Speaker 4: probably do seventy eighty then ninety percent of total driving 496 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,360 Speaker 4: in fully electric mode. So that's that's kind of one 497 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,879 Speaker 4: that we that we flagged as well, and that I 498 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 4: think you'll hear more on in the next few years. 499 00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: And so, I mean I'm a little unfamiliar with the concept. 500 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:14,399 Speaker 1: So's you know, I don't know if this is the 501 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 1: right technical words. It's essentially like a battery electric vehicle 502 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 1: that has a generator inside it as well, that's right. 503 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 1: And how heavy is the generator, like, say, compared to 504 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 1: an internal combustion engine vehicle. 505 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a lot smaller than all the apparatus you 506 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:30,880 Speaker 4: need for an engine because you think about the way 507 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 4: an engine works, and in traditional vehicles you need to 508 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 4: be able to directly drive the wheels from that. So 509 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 4: it has to be able to operate in all sorts 510 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 4: of different conditions. If you have a little I don't 511 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 4: know if you've ever seen just a gasoline generator, it's 512 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 4: not quite like that, but it's not too far off 513 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 4: that a little portable one. And so it's just a 514 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:50,439 Speaker 4: much simpler engine, much smaller, much less integration with all 515 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:51,439 Speaker 4: the rest of the vehicle. 516 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 3: So we had this thesis for. 517 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 4: A long time that look, plug and hybrids never really 518 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:56,679 Speaker 4: take over because they can never be cheaper than a 519 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 4: combustion vehicle because they still have an internal combustion engine 520 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 4: platform on board. I think erevs challenged that a bit, 521 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,360 Speaker 4: because if your main costs are a small generator essentially 522 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 4: and a small fuel tank for that, it's not that 523 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 4: much money, and it's certainly not the full cost of 524 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 4: two totally distinct architectures. These vehicles are built as evs first, 525 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 4: and then you're sort of adding something afterwards, which is 526 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 4: kind of the opposite of what we had with some 527 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 4: of the first evs that came out, which were actually 528 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 4: built as combustion vehicles first, and then you sort of 529 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 4: add made them electric, but on the same kind of 530 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 4: platform or chassis, which is things like the Volkswagen Egle. 531 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,120 Speaker 4: So I think it's a really interesting technological solution, and 532 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 4: we're seeing it rise really quickly in places in rural areas, 533 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 4: in places where people don't have home charging options or 534 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 4: where there's just not as much charging infrastructure. So yeah, 535 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 4: I want to watch. 536 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 1: What I find really fascinating about this is because everything 537 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,919 Speaker 1: you've said to me makes sense of the merits of 538 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 1: these vehicles over plug in hybrids, And maybe it's not 539 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 1: an apples to apples comparison, because in a way, a 540 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 1: plug in hybrid is like an internal combustion engine vehicle 541 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: with a little battery to help make it more efficient, 542 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 1: whereas this is like an electric car with little generator 543 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,440 Speaker 1: to make it more long range. Still, the question that's 544 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: ringing in my ears, as you've explained all to this, 545 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: is why hasn't this become a thing sooner? Because generators 546 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: are not new technologies. Was there anything that has changed 547 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: that has enabled this? 548 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,399 Speaker 4: So the short answer is it has happened before. So 549 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,959 Speaker 4: the Chevy Vault is essentially a version of this that 550 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:21,200 Speaker 4: was launched in twenty eight ten. 551 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:22,360 Speaker 3: But I think what's. 552 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 4: Different now is sort of the For one, when that 553 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,440 Speaker 4: vehicle was launched, the battery prices were really high. 554 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 3: And the supply chain didn't really exist to build that easily. 555 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:34,360 Speaker 4: Now batteries are cheap and the supply chain is very 556 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 4: very well developed in China. And then also you have 557 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,120 Speaker 4: a bunch of startups. So one of the groups that's 558 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 4: pushing it quite hard is a group called Li Auto, 559 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,200 Speaker 4: which is one of the fast growing Chinese EV startups. 560 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 4: But who really want to make this work like they're 561 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 4: sort of in with both feet, They're not hedged, and 562 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 4: I think that that makes a difference as well. You 563 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 4: need somebody who's like all in on the technology pushing 564 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,479 Speaker 4: as hard as they can, and it's either we're going 565 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,080 Speaker 4: to make this work or we're going to go bankrupt. 566 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 3: That's a powerful motivator. 567 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,400 Speaker 4: Couple that with some cheaper battery costs, and I think 568 00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,440 Speaker 4: that's part part of the reason why you're seeing it now. 569 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,120 Speaker 4: I think there's also some recognition that, again, in these 570 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 4: places where you've got really high levels of ev adoption, 571 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:07,399 Speaker 4: a big chunk of the market. 572 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 3: Does just go full battery electric. 573 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 4: And then what you're trying to figure out here is 574 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 4: is there a solution that helps for some of the 575 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 4: other ones that are that are harder to reach, And again, 576 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:16,879 Speaker 4: I think erevs are a potential way. 577 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:17,159 Speaker 3: To do that. 578 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 4: We'll have to see how they actually get used and 579 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,400 Speaker 4: performance an uptake in other markets first, because I don't 580 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,680 Speaker 4: want to oversell it as some sort of heroic technological 581 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,119 Speaker 4: solution that's going to rescue things. But it's certainly, like 582 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 4: I said, one, we're keeping an eye on. 583 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 1: No I mean, and just to sort of almost like 584 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,360 Speaker 1: zoom out a bit and not talk about this specific technology. 585 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 1: What I'm kind of taking from this is batteries are 586 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 1: getting cheap enough that you're now seeing companies able to 587 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 1: explore new possibilities and new innovations. I know that like 588 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 1: one of the things that's always been a conversation around 589 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,400 Speaker 1: this area, at least with people who like being contrarian 590 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,160 Speaker 1: or reading sci fi, is that, you know, our thinking 591 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 1: on electric vehicles is so conservative because we're thinking in 592 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 1: terms of the cars that we know, except with a 593 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: battery in them instead. You know there could be different paradigms, 594 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 1: but that maybe haven't yet been explored. So I suppose 595 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: my takeaway from this is maybe batteries are getting to 596 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: that point where they're cheap enough that is now enabling 597 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 1: new innovation, new startup companies to try new things based 598 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,360 Speaker 1: on this premise of cheap batteries without having to be 599 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 1: a vertically integrated battery manufacturer themselves. 600 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think I think in an era where 601 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 4: we're just getting started in electrification, you had to bet 602 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,639 Speaker 4: on by far the most the safest, most likely to 603 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 4: succeed option, right, And in a world where we sort 604 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 4: of say okay, batteries and electrification are really spreading quickly. 605 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,159 Speaker 4: And again, if you're sitting in the US, maybe this 606 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,879 Speaker 4: whole conversation sounds a bit crazy because you've seen all 607 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 4: the rollbacks that are happening there, but be really clear, 608 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,919 Speaker 4: the rest of the world, particularly Europe, China and a 609 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 4: lot of these emerging markets are going electric quite quickly. 610 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 3: That is happening. 611 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 4: It does sort of show that, well, yeah, there may 612 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 4: be a little bit more room for experimentation right now. 613 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 4: So I'll give you another example of a technology that 614 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,440 Speaker 4: was sort of seen as dead but is now coming 615 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,919 Speaker 4: back is battery swapping. So, for heavy trucks in China, 616 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,680 Speaker 4: almost half of electric heavy truck sales, which are rising 617 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 4: quite quickly, About fifteen percent of heavy, medium and heavy 618 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 4: truck sales in China are now electric, but half of 619 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 4: those have a swappable battery and they're used in port 620 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 4: operations or on large mining sites or industrial sites. And 621 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 4: again that was something that was tried a little bit 622 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,440 Speaker 4: almost twenty years ago now and failed. But now there's 623 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 4: just a sort of acceptance that electrification is going to 624 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 4: play a big role, and there will probably be different 625 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 4: flavors of electrification that are used to solve different specific problems. 626 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:29,119 Speaker 4: And it may well be that in some sort of 627 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 4: port drayage application or in some sort of mining site 628 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 4: that yeah, you can just swap batteries in and out 629 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,479 Speaker 4: and that works well there or similarly, we've seen that 630 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:39,399 Speaker 4: take off quite rapidly for two wheelers. So a battery 631 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,159 Speaker 4: that you can physically just lift up and go to 632 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 4: a swap station and swap in and out a battery 633 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,440 Speaker 4: that you've signed up to a subscription for with that provider, 634 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 4: and there's a lot of them dotted around the city, 635 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 4: and then it's significantly faster than refueling with petrol because 636 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,720 Speaker 4: you're just walking in and literally swapping one. 637 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:54,880 Speaker 3: Battery out and then driving off. 638 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 4: So again, I think we are getting to this point 639 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:01,239 Speaker 4: where electrification is and cheap batteries, good quality batteries are 640 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 4: sort of a baseline technology, and then there's a lot 641 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,640 Speaker 4: of experimentation, new business models and new products you can 642 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 4: build from that, And I think this kind of gets 643 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,880 Speaker 4: at something core is like each year when we sort 644 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 4: of ask ourselves, like do we still believe that this 645 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 4: trend is strong and is robust? The core thing that 646 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,920 Speaker 4: we're looking at is our batteries still getting better and cheaper, 647 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 4: And the data is very clear on this. Batteries are 648 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,159 Speaker 4: still getting better and cheaper. There's a huge amount of 649 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 4: innovation both in emerging chemistries and also just the existing ones. 650 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 4: So we do a big deep dive on solid state batteries, 651 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 4: on sodium ion batteries, and those are going to play 652 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 4: a role in the future at some point. But even 653 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,520 Speaker 4: just within regular with the myon batteries prices drop twenty 654 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 4: percent last year, there's more and more of them that 655 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 4: can do really fast charging, in some cases up to 656 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,159 Speaker 4: a megawatch charging, which is getting pretty close to the 657 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,680 Speaker 4: point where evs are can be refueled at the same 658 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 4: speed as a gasoline car. Now, the infrastructure is not 659 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,080 Speaker 4: there to do it, and not all the vehicles can 660 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:53,520 Speaker 4: do it, and that sort of thing, but the bottom 661 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,200 Speaker 4: line is that technology is still getting better and cheaper, 662 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 4: and that's what sort of makes us confident that the 663 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,359 Speaker 4: trend continues, even if it has some steps forward and 664 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,359 Speaker 4: back and some regional variations. So I think that's a 665 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 4: quite important takeaway and is a big part of the 666 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 4: sort of technoeconomic modeling that we do to build these outlooks. 667 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,479 Speaker 4: We're not just sort of saying what do we think happens. 668 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 4: We are running it through some fairly sophisticated models on 669 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 4: how much does it cost to make a car, and 670 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,120 Speaker 4: then what does that mean for addressable market in each 671 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:20,920 Speaker 4: given market. 672 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 1: And you know, just reflecting on everything you're saying. You know, 673 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 1: I said before, it's like cheap batteries have enabled people 674 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,360 Speaker 1: to try new things. It's also like, from what I'm 675 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 1: picking up, maybe whereas before, if you were selling electric 676 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 1: cars or other kinds of vehicles, your differentiation was that 677 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 1: your vehicle is electric. That is what it's USP is. 678 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 1: But now what we're seeing is vehicle manufacturers are competing 679 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 1: against other vehicles that are electric and it's not being 680 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 1: electric is no longer a USP in the same way then, 681 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: so we're seeing other usps that are built on the 682 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: premise of being electric, but it's like it's electric. 683 00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 3: And yeah, and I mean China. 684 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,920 Speaker 4: Fifty percent of vehicles sales now in China come with 685 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 4: the plug, right, So within that there's companies And one 686 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 4: of the more sort of comical oversimplifications I hear is like, oh, 687 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 4: that's just government policy, They're forcing people to do that. 688 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 3: That's definitely not the case. 689 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 4: Like the government targets in China are that we're for 690 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 4: twenty percent of sales to be new energy vehicles so plugins. 691 00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 2: So that's two and a half times over that Taiget. 692 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, so organic consumer demand has clearly taken off 693 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 4: and is just running away with it. That's where all 694 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 4: the cool tech is. And you have groups with a 695 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 4: lot of brand cachet that are developing cars. So once 696 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 4: you get to fifty percent, you have all this competitive dynamics, 697 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 4: different groups competing in different segments, launching vehicles as quickly 698 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,520 Speaker 4: as they can, so there's development time for a new 699 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 4: vehicle has been compressed down to sort of eighteen months 700 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 4: instead of three or four years or five years even, 701 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,560 Speaker 4: and just really really cutthroat rapid competition. I will say 702 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,320 Speaker 4: within China, the level of competition is so intense that 703 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,640 Speaker 4: a lot of groups are not profitable, so there may 704 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,920 Speaker 4: be some sort of reset that needs to happen there 705 00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 4: as well. But certainly it gets at this point that 706 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,240 Speaker 4: you have this sort of platform technology that's available now 707 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 4: and people are building and innovating from there, and once 708 00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 4: the dust settles, there's a few successful companies that will 709 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 4: come out of that and our world real national champions, 710 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 4: and certainly there's a few of those already in the 711 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:14,720 Speaker 4: form of view ID and CTL, but I think there'd 712 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:16,760 Speaker 4: be a few more names. People start to see that 713 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 4: emerge from that intense competition as well on the global stage. 714 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 2: So fascinating and really exciting. 715 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,600 Speaker 1: And yeah, for those of listeners who like me, are 716 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 1: based in the US where it feels like a little 717 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:30,880 Speaker 1: bit of a you know what the word is, the 718 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,560 Speaker 1: rainy weather for the electric vehicle market, it's really actually 719 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 1: quite refreshing to hear this global perspective, and it's not 720 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 1: just about the numbers. There's actually really exciting stuff going on. 721 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 1: And yeah, as you say, that might create challenges, but 722 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 1: kind of going back to the very top where we're 723 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:50,480 Speaker 1: talking about, you've been doing this outlook year after year, 724 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,920 Speaker 1: I'm guessing it keeps it very interesting for you as 725 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 1: the person leading this analysis. 726 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 3: It definitely does, and you do learn things from it, right, 727 00:30:59,000 --> 00:30:59,720 Speaker 3: I mean there. 728 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 4: Is something about saying, look, we've been doing this for 729 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 4: a decade. We will still be doing this another decade 730 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 4: from now. There's sort of an accountability that comes with 731 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 4: that too. I feel like it's quite easy to run 732 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 4: around and say, oh, it's all going to change and 733 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 4: here's my dramatic forecast, and get a lot of headlines. 734 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 4: But then two years later, three years later, ten years later, 735 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,920 Speaker 4: did that hold up? Did it carry any water. Did 736 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,960 Speaker 4: it make any sense? Certainly when we started doing this 737 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 4: a few years later, there were all these groups saying 738 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 4: one hundred percent of car sales are going to be 739 00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 4: electric by twenty twenty five or twenty thirty, and generate 740 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 4: lots of headlines from that, and then they're never revisited 741 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 4: it and never followed up. And though those groups were 742 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 4: just sort of comically wrong, they didn't understand the market 743 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 4: that they were dealing with. So I think there is 744 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 4: some responsibility and some accountability that. 745 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 3: Comes from doing it for a long time. 746 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 4: And also I should just say here, I'm very fortunate 747 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 4: to work with an incredible team of people at Bloomberg 748 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 4: an EF. There's literally dozens of analysts who contribute to 749 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 4: this report, looking at everything from the supply of lithium 750 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,760 Speaker 4: to the cost of public charging in Germany, or the 751 00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,320 Speaker 4: road fuel demand impacts or two wheelers in Vietnam. So 752 00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 4: we're really able to draw on a global team of 753 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 4: really sharp people with really extremely precise domain expertise, and 754 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 4: that's what sort of gives it wings and makes it 755 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 4: useful for our clients. I think you can sit and 756 00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 4: draw curves and say, look, here's an s curve disruption 757 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 4: is coming. That may or may not be true, but 758 00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 4: it's often not especially operationally useful for people. So the 759 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 4: goal that we're starting from is, let's provide things that 760 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 4: are operationally useful as well as digging into what the 761 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 4: big trend is. And I think again, in the ten 762 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 4: years of doing it, it's been a fruitful thing. And 763 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 4: it's also been a real pleasure to work with some 764 00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,040 Speaker 4: of the same people for ten years every year on 765 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 4: it and be able to tap into their expertise and 766 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 4: see their fingerprints on these improvements that we've made over 767 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 4: the years. To the modeling, or to the depth of coverage, 768 00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,239 Speaker 4: to the country coverage or the segments and all those 769 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 4: sorts of things. 770 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 1: Well, that's a really nice note to finish on. And 771 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,280 Speaker 1: you know, they always say you should leave people wanting more. 772 00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,560 Speaker 1: So Colin said, there was eleven main findings. 773 00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,320 Speaker 2: Was it main findings? You said, what was the way? 774 00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, I said, eleven key findings. I think we got 775 00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,880 Speaker 4: through We convincingly got through three. And there's all sorts 776 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 4: of other ones around oil impacts, about cost of charging, 777 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 4: about what's going on with electric big rigs and trucks, 778 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:12,200 Speaker 4: about solid state batteries and overcapacity, and also about a 779 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,000 Speaker 4: little bit about net zero. We didn't talk about much 780 00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 4: about net zero this year. More people, we found, and 781 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 4: more of our clients want to want to talk more 782 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 4: about the next five and ten years than the next 783 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,480 Speaker 4: thirty and forty or twenty and thirty, I should say, 784 00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 4: so we didn't talk as much about net zero, but 785 00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:26,320 Speaker 4: there is some stuff in there as well if people 786 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 4: want to know where the scenarios are tracking and how 787 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,360 Speaker 4: far on or off course different countries or segments are 788 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 4: as well. 789 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:32,320 Speaker 2: Got it. 790 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,640 Speaker 1: So we've given you three and there's eight more amazing 791 00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:37,440 Speaker 1: conversations out there. 792 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 2: Colin. 793 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:42,520 Speaker 1: It's been really enjoyable and interesting as always talking to you, 794 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 1: so Colin, thank you so much for joining us today. 795 00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:53,120 Speaker 3: Thanks Tom. 796 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,680 Speaker 1: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by Cam Gray 797 00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 1: with production assistance from Kamala Sholling. 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