WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: October 31, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:01.880 --> 0:00:05.279 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:09.000 Daybreak from Monday, October thirty one two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:13.440 d Enters the last trading day of October, up almost 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:16.160 nine percent for the month. Investors await this week's meet 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:20.119 decision and jobs reports. Barklay's trading revenue tops estimates. We'll 0:00:20.120 --> 0:00:23.400 speak with the banks CEO. And in Brazil, Luisa Nacio 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:26.640 Lula da Silva wins the presidential election. The man accused 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:29.000 of attacking the husband of House Speaker Pelosi will be 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:32.000 charged today. Plus South three of mourns after a crowd 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:34.560 crush kills more than a hundred fifty people. I Michael 0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:37.000 blarn more than head. I'm John stas Shower and sports. 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:39.560 The Jets and Giants four game win streaks both came 0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:41.800 to an end and NIX lost. The Rangers and Devils 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:47.040 both won. That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:51.519 Bloomberg eleven, Freeo, New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:55.960 Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:59.320 Sirius x M one nineteen and around the world on 0:00:59.440 --> 0:01:02.600 Bloomberg Radio dot com and via the Bloomberg Business. A 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:10.760 good Monday morning. I'm Amy Morris and M. Nathan Hagar. 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.759 Futures are moving lower as we start a busy week 0:01:13.800 --> 0:01:15.720 for markets. Were coming up to five oh one on 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:17.800 Wall Street. We checked the markets for you every fifteen 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:20.760 minutes during the trading day on Bloomberg SMP futures right 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:23.240 now down twenty two points. Staff futures down a hundred 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:26.759 sixty one. Nastack futures are lower by eighty nine points. 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:29.920 Tenure Treasury is down ten thirty seconds. The yield four 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:32.600 point zero five percent yield on the two year four 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:35.640 point four eight percent. Nim X screwed is down seven 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.240 tenths per center sixty three cents at eighty seven dollars 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:41.080 twenty nine cents of Barrel and Comics Gold right now 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:44.200 is down three tenths percent at sixteen thirty nine seventy 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:47.280 an ounce. Amy Nathan Stock Center, the last day of 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:49.640 the trading month. In rally mode, d S and P 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:52.680 five hundred has gained almost nine percent in October. The 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:56.279 Dow Jones Industrial Average has surged more than fourteen percent. 0:01:56.640 --> 0:01:59.520 Michael Sheldon as chief investment Officer at High Tower r 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:02.480 d M Financial Group. The Dow is the first of 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:05.240 the major indices to move back above their key two 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:08.840 day moving averages, So that's something a lot of investors watched, 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:12.000 separating a longer term rally versus a short term rally. 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:14.200 None of the other major markets have done that, but 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:17.680 that's certainly something to the monitor going forward. Hi Tower 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:20.560 r DM Financial Group Michael Sheldon notes the s and 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:24.760 is on its longest weekly rising streaks since August. Blamy 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:27.959 investors have to potential market moving events this week. The 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:30.959 FED makes an interest rate decision on Wednesday, and the 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:35.040 government issues its monthly employment report on Friday. Bloomberg'sviny Del 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:39.240 Judas reports economists se another jumbo US rate hike seventy 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:44.000 five basis points to stop red hot inflation. Consumer psychology 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.200 a key to snapping a price breakout, suggest the Fed. 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:49.919 As its work cut out, Americans see the cost of 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:52.919 living rising five percent over the next year, based on 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:58.160 University of Michigan data. Turning to America's labor market, economists 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.960 anticipate in October payroll game but not as robust to September. 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:06.000 The unemployment rate will probably remain low amid historic labor 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:10.960 shortages in many industries. Fini Deal, Judae, Bloomberg Daybreak, Thanks Vinnie. 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:14.160 The latest of Bloomberg m Live Pulse survey suggests if 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:17.560 the Fed shair Jerome Powell gives any dubbish signals during 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:21.040 this week's press conference, he might send investors scrambling. Almost 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:23.600 half of two hundred fifty respondents polled last week said 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:25.880 they were buying the dollar ahead of the decision. In 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:29.480 about seventy eight percent expected two year treasury yields to 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:32.360 go up. No, it's gonna be another busy week for earnings. Amy. 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:34.720 More than a third of the companies in the SMP 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:37.040 five report this week, and we get the story from 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:41.120 Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. With more than two hundred sixty SMP 0:03:41.280 --> 0:03:46.160 companies reporting so far, about seventy one have delivered positive 0:03:46.240 --> 0:03:51.080 earning surprises despite some notable technology. Mrs Emily Hill is 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:54.760 founding partner at Bowersock Capital Partners. You know, yes, some 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:59.760 earnings are exceeding this reasonably low bar, but overall we 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:02.200 of slowing growth and I think what we're going to 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:04.800 see is more of what we just saw from big 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:07.320 tech and in the first quarter of next year, we're 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.440 going to see the impact of the strong dollar rising 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.560 interest rates even more than we have now. In addition 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.000 to the healthcare giants, this week we will hear from 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:21.679 A m D, Airbnb, Conuco, Phillips, Starbucks, Uber and Young Brands. 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:26.360 In New York, Charlie Pellock Bloomberg Daybreak, all right, thank you, Charlie. 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:29.279 And in Europe, chairs of barclayser up a half percent. 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:33.760 Trading revenue rose greater than expected this game, driven by 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:38.400 fixed income, commodities and currencies. Trading exclude some hedging losses 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:41.880 tied to its mistakenly issued securities earlier this year. And 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:45.320 his first TV interview since taking the top job, Chief 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:48.520 Executive Officer C. S Venkate Christian And spoke about the 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:52.120 UK economy with Bloomberg's Franci and Lakwa. What I'm hoping 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:55.480 you see is what people will call a soft landing 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:59.400 and shallow recession, helped by the initial conditions. Uh and 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:02.920 and so what you might see as an increase in unemployment, 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:07.360 you might see some credit weakness among among customers, but 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.200 it won't be so bad that you see distress in society. 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:13.080 We're going to bring you more of our conversation with 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:16.040 Chief executive officers c As vin Cate Christian. It's a 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:18.400 little later in the program. Well, another major story we're 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:21.040 following this morning, Amy takes us to Brazil and a 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:25.120 dramatic comeback for former president Louise and Nacio Lula da Silva, 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:28.719 the left wing politician has won the presidential election, narrowly 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:32.400 defeating incumbent Gyre ball Cinaro. Three years ago, Lula was 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:36.120 in a jail cell on corruption charges. Juan Pablo Spinetto 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:39.560 is Bloomberg's managing editor for Economy and Government in Latin America. 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:43.119 Less than three years ago, he was still in jail. 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:47.920 So if we talk about perspective um, this is probably 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:50.679 one of the greatest political combat sides in my life. 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:54.160 Lula was president for eight years at the beginning of 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:57.240 the century. He was one of the most popular politicians 0:05:57.600 --> 0:06:00.960 on Earth. At some point when Barack Obama president, he 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:03.920 called he in the guy right, the most important and 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:08.000 most popular president. Bloomberg Managing editor Juan Pablo Spinetto says 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:11.719 Bolsonaro has neither conceded the race nor commented on the results. 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:15.400 And in other political news this morning, Chinese Foreign Minister 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:18.760 Wang Ye criticized US export curbs in a cult with 0:06:18.800 --> 0:06:23.000 Secretary of State Anthony Blinken Wins. Comments about export controls 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.920 were an apparent reference to Washington's move earlier this month 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:29.920 to restrict Chinese access to chip making technology. On the 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:33.440 economic front in Asia, Amy China's factory and services activity 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.839 contracted in October. Bloomberg day Break Asia anchor Bryan Curtis 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:39.800 has more from Hong Kong. The downshift suggests the COVID 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:42.880 curbs and the property cristis are taking a toll. The 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:45.680 official pm I felt a forty nine point two from 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:49.320 fifty point one in September and below estimates. The non 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.240 manufacturing pm I dropped to forty eight point seven from 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:56.880 fifty point six and also below estimates. Bloomberg Economics says, 0:06:56.880 --> 0:07:00.280 as bad as these numbers are, they probably understand the 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:03.640 true weakness. New export orders slumped all the way to 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:07.640 forty seven point six and non manufacturing employment dropped to 0:07:07.720 --> 0:07:11.200 forty six point one in Hong Kong. Brian Curtis Bloomberg 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:14.120 day Break, Okay, Brian, thank you, futures are moving lower 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:16.920 this Monday morning, straight ahead your latest local headlines in 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:23.720 the check of Sports. This is Bloomberg. Thank you, Nathan. 0:07:23.760 --> 0:07:25.760 It's five oh seven on Wall three. Let's bring in 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:27.880 Michael bar with more on what else is going on 0:07:28.080 --> 0:07:30.679 in New York and around the world. Good morning Michael, 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:33.680 Good morning Amy. We're learning more information about the attack 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:37.559 on Paul Pelosi, husband of our speaker Nancy Pelosi. It sat. 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:40.520 The suspect allegedly had a bag full of zip ties 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:44.440 along with a hammery he brought to pelosi San Francisco home. 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:48.960 The suspect, David pop will officially be charged today and 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:52.760 arraigned tomorrow. Pelosi is the latest in a growing wave 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:56.679 of threats and plots against elected officials on Face the Nation. 0:07:56.800 --> 0:08:00.200 Margaret Brennan asked Tom emer, Congressman and chair end of 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:03.720 the National Republican Congressional Committee, about a tween he posted 0:08:03.800 --> 0:08:07.320 several days ago of him touting the Second Amendment firing 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:11.280 a gun with a hashtag fire Pelosi. Why is there 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:14.000 a gun in a political add at all? Well, now, 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:17.360 pink slip be more fitting if it's about firing her 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:21.280 exercising our Second Amendment rights. Heaven at the Second Amendment 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:25.600 has been about Second Amment hashtag Pelosi. Yes, Emers said 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:28.760 there is no place for violence in our society. Face 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:31.960 the nation can be heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio. At 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:34.640 least a hundred fifty three people were killed and dozens 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:39.040 injured following a crowd crush during Halloween celebrations, and Soul, 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:42.760 marking one of the deadliest incidents in South Korea in years. 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.719 Bloomberg so he Kim has more from Soul. Most of 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:48.280 the victims were young people, those who are in their 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.360 twenties and women who couldn't endure the pressure they got 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:54.720 from the crowd crush. Bloomberg so he Kim from Seoul, 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:58.640 President Yun Sakyol declared a period of national mourning and 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:03.199 vowed to carry out a thorough investigation. Republican Governor Brian 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:06.679 Kemp and Democrats Stacy Abrams squared off Sunday night in 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:12.680 Georgia's governor race. The governor praised the state's economy thankfully 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:15.760 in Georgia because we were open even when Miss Abrams 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:19.440 didn't want us to be. Our economy has been incredibly resilient. 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:24.199 We've had two record years for economic development. Meanwhile, Abrams 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:27.240 during the debate promised voters she will not reduce taxes 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:30.520 for the rich. As governor, I will not only lower costs, 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:32.960 I will put more money into the pockets of working 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:35.679 Georgians of middle class origins. But what I will not 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:38.560 do is give tax cuts to the wealthy and the powerful. 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:43.240 The Abram's Kemp Debate aired on WSB. Drivers, look out 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:45.240 for a little trick or treater. It isn't the Tri 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:48.959 State area. It's Halloween. Meanwhile, for the adults, the annual 0:09:49.080 --> 0:09:52.920 Halloween Parade returns to Greenwich Village Tonight. Global News twenty 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.480 four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:58.680 Take Power by more than twenty hundred journalists and analysts 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:01.360 more than a hundred twenty country Michael Barr and this 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:06.679 is Bloomberg Gaming. All right, thank you, Michael, five o 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.240 nine on Wall Street Time. Now for the sports report, 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.520 brought to you by Try State Audi. Here's john S 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:13.520 dash Our thanks seeing me. It was an awfully nice 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:16.280 month of October for the Jets and Giants both. We're 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:18.080 hoping to cap it with a fifth winning a row 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:20.160 boat saw other winning streaks come to an end. Jets 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:23.080 lead the Patriots at halftime with the fat scored nineteen 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:25.520 points in the row beat. The Jets for the thirteen, 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:28.439 king second of time, twenty to the seventeen and MetLife. 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.120 Not a good day for Zach Wilson. Between a couple 0:10:31.160 --> 0:10:34.000 of touchdown passes, he threw three interceptions. One was a 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.199 pass he was just trying to throw away. There was 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:38.559 a costly Jet penalty in the first half of roughing 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.080 the pastor that wiped out in eighty yard pick six. 0:10:41.559 --> 0:10:43.640 Jets fall to five and three the Giants in Seattle. 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.800 The game was tied at seven, then ten, then thirteen. 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:49.760 In the fourth quarter, You're gonna throw again. On first down, 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:56.200 pumping got him out of the corn down straight home. 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:05.000 What a drive done. Tyler Loker was not gonna left 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:07.400 this one get away. Tyro had they called Tyler Locket 0:11:07.480 --> 0:11:10.160 had dropped the TV pass earlier. Also had a fumble 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:12.040 that led to a Giants t V to Seattle scored 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:16.199 again four minutes later. Seahawks won seven to thirteen. Richie 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:20.040 James was a Giant's goat. He fumbled punts in both halves, 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:22.199 both led to Seattle scores. Giants for six and two 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:24.480 and off next week. Nick's got a good look at 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.600 the guy they were trying to acquire the off season. 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:29.480 In Cleveland, Donovan Mitchell scored thirty eight points. He made 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:32.719 eight three pointers. He had twelve assists. Calves rally to 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.080 win one oh eight. Rangers on me because the Banta 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:37.920 Jet power play goal was seven minutes left, won three two. 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.679 At Arizona, the Devil's routed Columbus seven to one. The 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:44.360 World Series is in Philadelphia, Astros who Phillies are one 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:47.760 one going to tonight's game. Three down statue were Bloombrook 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:51.600 Sports Tea all right, thank you John checking futures now 0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:55.000 s and P futures down twenty points, DAAL futures down 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.640 on seventy two, nastec features down at nineties six, much 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:01.160 more still to come on Bloomberg dayper This is Bloomberg. 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:09.680 The Bloomberg Sports Report was brought to you by Autie. 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:11.920 Don't let someone else drive off in the outie model 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:14.840 you've always wanted. Visit your local tri state outie dealer 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:16.920 to get behind the wheel of yours today, or visit 0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:23.360 out he Offers dot com for more information, markets, headlines 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:26.360 and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.840 dot Com, the Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg Quick tape. 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:39.640 He's a Bloomberg business lash. I'm Nathan Hager. European stocks 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:42.640 of erased early games. US equity futures are slipping at 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:44.960 the start of another busy week of earnings and key 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:48.319 central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve. We checked the 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:50.679 markets for you every fifteen minutes during the trading day 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:53.559 on Bloomberg SMP futures right now are down twenty five 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:57.240 points down, futures down a d seventy NASTAC futures down 0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:00.480 ninety two points. The decks in Germany's trading will change 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:04.040 tack in Paris down three tenths per cent. The tenure 0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:06.720 Treasury is down twelve thirty seconds yield four point zero 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:08.880 six percent yield on the two year four point four 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:11.400 nine nim X screwed is down a half percent, or 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:14.120 forty five cents at eighty seven dollars forty five cents 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:16.560 a barrel. Comic gold is down three tenths per cent 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.920 or five dollars in six eighty announced the euro point 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.880 nine five against the dollar British pound one point one 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:25.840 five five five. The end is at one eight point 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:28.560 to seven. Looking at Bitcoin, it's down nine tenths per 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:31.640 cent at twenty thousand, five hundred dollars. That's a Bloomberg 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:34.080 Business Flash, Now and burn. What's going on around the world. 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:37.640 Here's Michael bar Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan. Brazilians 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:41.160 have delivered a very tight victory to Luis Ignatio Lola 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:44.800 da Silva in their presidential election. It gives the leftist 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:48.120 former president another shot at power in a rejection of 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:52.559 incumbent Gayer Bosonaro's far right politics. At least two Americans 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:55.079 are among the more than a hundred fifty people killed 0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:59.240 in a crowd surge in Seoul, South Korea. Mourners left 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:02.760 flowers pay tribute to the victims near the site. Military 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:05.480 teams are searching for people missing after a century old 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:09.560 pedestrian bridge collapsed into a river in western India last night, 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.720 killing at least a hundred thirty two people. In the NFL, 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:16.559 the Giants lost, the Patriots beat the Jets, seventeen the 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:20.600 Commanders and one. In the NBA, the next lost. The 0:14:20.680 --> 0:14:25.200 Celtics beat the Wizards one four. The Warriors lost. In hockey, 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:28.640 The Devils and Rangers won. Global News twenty four hours 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.640 a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.720 more than twenty hundred journalists and analysts in more than 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.960 a hundred twenty countries. Michael Bard, this is Bloomberg Gaming 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:40.960 all right, Thank you, Michael. It is five twenty now 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:44.040 on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.320 This is Bloomberg Daybreak and we are joined now by 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:51.000 Lorie Calvacina, Head of US Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets. Laurie, 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:53.520 good morning, Thanks for taking the time with us. Stocks 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.480 are entering the last day of the trading month in 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:58.400 rally mode. S and P five hundred gaining almost nine 0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:02.920 percent in October, dal Joan industrial averages searched more. Have 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.520 we found the bottom? Is this a bear market rally? 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.160 Where are we? All? Right? Well, thanks for having me 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:10.320 as always, you know, look, we think that the equity 0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:13.800 market is in the middle of this sort of longer extended, 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.240 messier bottoming process, and I do think we'll see some 0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:19.080 volatility for the next a few months or so, you know, 0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:21.440 kind of well in the early part of next year. Um, 0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:23.720 but I do think it is possible that equities have 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:25.960 put in that low and one thing we tend to 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:27.760 see is that if you go back over time and 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:30.200 look in big crises. Um, what you tend to see 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:34.000 is that equities of SMP five hundred rather makes it's low. 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:37.200 About three to six months before earning, gustment revisions stopped 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:39.080 going down. So if we think that sort of you know, 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:41.600 April May is the time frame when we'll be done 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:43.760 with those downward revisions. Now is about the time you 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:46.400 want to be looking for a bottom. Now. We saw 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:51.000 the tech heavyweights Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet Meta plunge after earnings, 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:54.600 but the overall market was resilient, and that seems to 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:58.200 be the key word, resiliency. What does it tell you? So? 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:01.400 I thought it was really interesting price action. Um, and 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:03.760 I do think that we're seeing, you know, some rational 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:06.280 moves so far in this reporting season. If you look 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.440 at how companies are reacting to their beats and misses, 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.520 we're seeing energy companies are doing quite well in regards 0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:14.360 to the beats, but some of those broader T I M. 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:17.800 T spaces are doing pretty poorly in regards to the misses. UM, 0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:19.520 and I think you do have to have a shorter 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:22.400 term crowd that's playing that ladder area. One of the 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:24.360 things we talked about in our weekly this morning, Amy 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:25.920 is that if you look at positioning on the c 0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:29.880 STC data for asset managers, specifically on US equity futures, 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:32.720 it's pretty washed out across the broader US equity market, 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.560 but it's been really washed out. I eat the low 0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:38.400 financial crisis type lows for areas like small caps in 0:16:38.440 --> 0:16:41.000 the Dow UM. So while the growth trade has been 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:43.440 looking pretty washed out, it's been looking even more washed 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:45.560 out in the cyclicals, the small cats, and the old 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:49.520 economy stacks. So as you're seeing those third quarter reports, 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:52.640 what is your takeaway from these companies? Is it all 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:56.200 about the resiliency? So I think you're seeing you know, 0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:58.120 we're still in the middle of it, so this story 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:00.480 is still being written. But I do think that companies 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:03.280 that are executing well, that are having you know, sort 0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:07.600 of more resilient business models, more brilliant product lines, management 0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:09.920 teams who are frankly able to navigate the macro a 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:12.560 bit better, they are coming through a bit better than 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.440 companies UM that we're really, you know, just sort of 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.359 sailing on the pale winds of the recovery off the 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:22.000 COVID lows. UM. So, I do think that we're we're 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.040 starting to see you know, sort of a MESSI or 0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:26.280 take on demand. Now that we're hearing from more sectors, 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:29.520 more industries, more companies. Um, we're hearing you know, kind 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:32.080 of more concern about labor and more kind of softening 0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:35.080 than a labor backsdrop. Very very messy so far. But 0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:37.360 in general, I think we've got a mix of resiliency 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:40.080 and in a mix of that weakness that investors have 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:43.040 long been looking for finally starting to take shape. So 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:45.119 do you think this week's FED meeting then could be 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.200 potentially market moving? You know, as much as I wish 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:49.800 that it was, And I think the FED always ends 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.280 ulpting market moving when we feel like it shouldn't be. 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:54.840 And you know, I starre looking at my Bloomberg this morning. 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:56.919 We're at thirty nine hundred on the SMP. How are 0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:58.960 we there? I mean, despite all the volatility that we 0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:02.639 had last week, fields almost unbelievable. Um. But but I 0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:04.800 do think, you know, as I talked to investors, there 0:18:04.800 --> 0:18:06.600 are many that are still sort of looking for that 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:09.520 kind of peaking inflation, making the case that inflation is 0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:11.800 set to moderate, that the set should be you know, 0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:14.600 pausing or pivoting a bit next year. So I do 0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:16.560 think those hopes are alive and well, and some of 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:19.159 that's probably embedded in the thirty nine hundred price right now. 0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:21.520 You know, Laurie, I'm sort of a political news girl. 0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:24.639 How are the mid terms impacting your strategy? This is 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:28.440 the most untalked about story I think in US equity markets. 0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:30.680 I know the political news crowd is certainly talking about 0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:32.720 it a lot, but you know, you do tend to 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:36.600 see equity markets bottom a few weeks before the mid terms. 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:38.600 In the mid term election years, on average, we have 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:40.639 about a seven percent moving the year in. If you 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:42.200 look at it your like o to it was even 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:44.720 stronger at together a twenty one percent rally off belows 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:47.200 into the year in ties. Um. So, I think that 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:49.760 the fact that the Republicans are doing better in things 0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:53.720 like the betting markets, the generic congressional ballot um as 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:56.119 as you know, kind of Biden schwartzunes have fallen a 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:59.359 little bit. I think that's healthy equity markets, um And 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.520 I think that you know, we'll we'll see what happens 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:04.960 after the midterms themselves, but I think that's when it's 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:06.680 been one of the big reasons for this move back 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:09.800 to thirty nine hundreds. That we've seen and thirty seconds, 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:12.080 just thirty seconds here, Laura, what's your look ahead? What 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:15.520 are you watching for? So that we're obviously watching the 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:17.680 feed this week and the reaction to it. You know, 0:19:17.760 --> 0:19:20.159 I'm interested to see more consumer companies come in and 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:22.960 report late in reporting season. That's probably the biggest thing 0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:24.760 I'm going to be paying attention to the next couple 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:28.440 of weeks. Alright, Lori Calvacina, head of US Equity Strategy 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.200 at RBC Capital Markets. It is always a pleasure. Thank 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:33.280 you so much for your insights in your time this morning. 0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.480 As in d Future is now down twenty one points down, 0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:41.600 futures down one dred and fifty three NASDAG features down 0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:44.800 seventy nine points, the ten year priced or rather the 0:19:44.880 --> 0:19:48.200 ten your treasury down twelve thirty seconds, the tenure yield 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:51.480 at four point oh six percent, two year yield at 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:53.919 four point to four nine percent. We have much more 0:19:54.000 --> 0:19:56.520 still to come. On this Monday morning edition of Bloomberg 0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:58.320 day Break, We're gonna check the markets, bring you the 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:02.040 latest news in business, etan mix and finance. This is 0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:07.960 Bloomberg all right, Amy, Thanks day, and brought to you 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:10.199 by the New York Community Trust. Your name will live 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:12.240 on as champion of the causes you care about for 0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:14.479 years to come through a charitable request of the New 0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:23.440 York Community Trust. Learn more at Philanthropist dot NYC. Broadcasting 0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:27.240 live from the Bloomberg Interacted Broker's studio in New York, 0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:32.000 Bloomberg eleving for you to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, 0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:35.560 Bloomberg one O six one does San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:38.720 sixty to the country, Sirius XM Chad A one nine team, 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:42.320 and around the globe the Bloomberg Business and Bloomberg Radio 0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:51.600 dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty on 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:54.240 Wall Street. Good Monday morning. I'm anymore Is and I'm 0:20:54.320 --> 0:20:56.520 Nathan Hager. We're about four hours away from the open 0:20:56.560 --> 0:20:58.399 of US training. Let's getch you up to date on 0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:00.480 the news you need to know at this hour. US 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.080 futures are lower to start the morning, but still stocks 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:05.440 under the last day of the trading month in rally 0:21:05.480 --> 0:21:08.359 mode from the SMP five hundreds gained almost nine percent 0:21:08.440 --> 0:21:11.399 in October, while the Dow has surged more than fourteen percent. 0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:15.320 Phil Orlando, chief ecuty strategist with Federated Hermes thinks we're 0:21:15.359 --> 0:21:17.920 still in for a bumpy road ahead. There's been this 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:21.320 perception among the market. We've seen this from that big 0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:23.840 rally mid June and mid August and then this rally 0:21:23.880 --> 0:21:26.399 over the last couple of weeks, This perception that there 0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:29.720