WEBVTT - How Uncertain Is The Situation Right Now? Ian Bremmer talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>According to a diplomatic source, Hamas is preventing civilians inside

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza from leaving their homes when they are warned about

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<v Speaker 1>an impending strike by the Israelis. I confirmed this with

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<v Speaker 1>someone on the ground in Gaza City and then reached

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<v Speaker 1>out to Hamas for comment, a senior Hamas official telling

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<v Speaker 1>Fox News it's technically impossible. The initial information is good information,

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<v Speaker 1>and it is significant as we are getting reports today

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<v Speaker 1>about the Israelis telling all of the northern Gazan population

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<v Speaker 1>to leave because it appears a ground invasion is eminine well.

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<v Speaker 2>Ian Bremer, who were about to talk to tweeted out

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<v Speaker 2>that more than four hundred thousand have already fled their

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<v Speaker 2>homes in North Gaza headed south, as recommended by the Israelis.

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<v Speaker 3>And they headline The New York Times panic gripts Gaza

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<v Speaker 3>as Israel tells one point one million to leave the

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<v Speaker 3>north and Hamas is urging defiance of it. So I'd

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<v Speaker 3>say chaos is a fairly well applied term. Ian Bremer,

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<v Speaker 3>president of the Eurasia Group, author of the Power of Crisis,

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<v Speaker 3>to respect the commentator on a number of out let's Ian,

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<v Speaker 3>how are you always good to.

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<v Speaker 4>Talk gentlemen, I've missed you, and likewise.

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<v Speaker 3>It's good to talk. The immediate situation is chaotic enough.

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<v Speaker 3>I know you specialize in trying to imagine what the

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<v Speaker 3>next couple of steps are. How uncertain is the situation

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<v Speaker 3>right now?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it's very certain in the sense that the Israelis

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<v Speaker 4>are going to escalate their airstrikes into Gaza and eventually

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<v Speaker 4>a ground occupation into Gaza. That is very clear. And

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<v Speaker 4>while the evacuation is going apace already four hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 4>Palestinians of about two point three million Kasa that have

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<v Speaker 4>left their homes and are trying to get out of

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<v Speaker 4>Dodge for safety, far more are still going to be there.

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<v Speaker 4>They will be unwilling or incapable of leaving, and that

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<v Speaker 4>means that the civilian consequences for this war are going

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<v Speaker 4>to get much much worse. This is of course, very

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<v Speaker 4>dangerous for the Israelis in terms of the impact it

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<v Speaker 4>has on their relations around the world, and they have

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<v Speaker 4>to be careful here.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that's what we're just talking about. How wobbly do

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<v Speaker 2>you think the United States government, France and all these

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<v Speaker 2>other countries that have said we are with Israel one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred percent, howe hundred percent are they?

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, you remember when Biden said a few months

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<v Speaker 4>ago that we're with Ukraine for as long as it takes,

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<v Speaker 4>which you know a lot of it takes. Is not

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<v Speaker 4>something you usually hear from an eighty year old. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>I worry. I worry, of course, that the willingness of

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<v Speaker 4>the United States, in any circumstance to be significantly a

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<v Speaker 4>long term committed to a serious fight has a cell

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<v Speaker 4>by date. This is very far from the United States.

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<v Speaker 4>It's very far from the heart of the average American

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<v Speaker 4>citizen that has been through four years of America First

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<v Speaker 4>and twenty years of an Afghanistan war, in a decade

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<v Speaker 4>of an Iraq war. I mean, you have to use

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<v Speaker 4>that as context. But certainly Israel is an issue that

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<v Speaker 4>has very strong bipartisan support from Democrats and Republicans in

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<v Speaker 4>the US. Fighting against Islamic terror is something that draws

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of interest for Americans. And yes, you can

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<v Speaker 4>find some students at Harvard that will say that the

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<v Speaker 4>Israelis are responsible. That is by no means representative of

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<v Speaker 4>the vast majority of the country.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, let's look at this for a minute from the

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<v Speaker 3>perspective of Hamas, You don't plan an attack like this

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<v Speaker 3>for two years and spend the lives of a bunch

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<v Speaker 3>of fighters just to strike a blow then go hide again.

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<v Speaker 3>They have a plan, a strategy. What do you suppose

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<v Speaker 3>it is.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that a lot of times plans are born

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<v Speaker 4>of desperate plans come from having few good alternatives. And

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<v Speaker 4>over the last couple of years, what you've seen is

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<v Speaker 4>that the Palestinians have been marginalized in the region. Not

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<v Speaker 4>many countries have shown a lot of interest in helping

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<v Speaker 4>the Palestinians. Fellow Arab nations have said, well, we'll work

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<v Speaker 4>with the Israelis. And it doesn't even if the Palestinian

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<v Speaker 4>situation is getting worse, Even as not Yahoo is expanding

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<v Speaker 4>his settlements illegally on Palestinian territory, you have governments lining

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<v Speaker 4>up to open diplomatic relations with Israel. So the Palestinians

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<v Speaker 4>are loosing there and the Palestinians are becoming irrelevant for

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<v Speaker 4>the Israelis. Israelis are focusing on things like corruption, scandals

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<v Speaker 4>and social descents and judicial reform, and all of that

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<v Speaker 4>I think is a useful context to understand why Hamas

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<v Speaker 4>would consider this kind of Attech because they increasingly felt

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<v Speaker 4>isolated and that nothing else was working for them. But

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<v Speaker 4>let's be clear, Haamas is not new to the terrorism game.

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<v Speaker 4>Harmas has been killing and trying to kill lots of

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<v Speaker 4>Israeli civilians for a long time. What has really changed

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<v Speaker 4>here dramatically is their ability to do so, and that

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<v Speaker 4>is not in Yahoo taking his eye off the ball.

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<v Speaker 4>The Israeli Prime Minister has access to the best border

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<v Speaker 4>security in the world. This is not like US Mexico

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<v Speaker 4>border security. This is serious border security. They have real

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<v Speaker 4>human intelligence, I mean gold standard signals intelligence on the

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<v Speaker 4>ground and in the air to be able to understand

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<v Speaker 4>exactly what the Palestinians are up to. And for the

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<v Speaker 4>last six months they have taken their eye off the ball.

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<v Speaker 4>They have not focused on this issue at all. In fact,

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<v Speaker 4>they've taken a lot of the defense forces off of

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<v Speaker 4>security with Gaga and put them into the West Bank

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<v Speaker 4>because they were expanding the settlements in their Palatinian reprisal. So,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean eighty six percent of Israelis in a poll

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<v Speaker 4>two days ago by the Jerusalem Post, which is a

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<v Speaker 4>right one newspaper in Israel, blame not Yahoo for this,

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<v Speaker 4>which is astonishing it's astonishing. So let's recognize that that's

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<v Speaker 4>the biggest thing that has changed is that the Israelis

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<v Speaker 4>do And if you're going to lock up the Palestindians

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<v Speaker 4>in Gaza, two point three million people, ninety percent don't

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<v Speaker 4>have access to water, fifty percent don't have access to

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<v Speaker 4>proper food. If you're going to do that and you're

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<v Speaker 4>going to take more of their land, you better focus

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<v Speaker 4>on national security. You better make sure the border is

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<v Speaker 4>secure and not in Yahoo didn't do that.

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<v Speaker 2>So I want to get this question, and I know

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<v Speaker 2>I have a limited time with you if I'm if

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<v Speaker 2>I'm running China and my goal is to take Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 2>I can't imagine a better time than when the United

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<v Speaker 2>States is involved in this and the world is paying

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<v Speaker 2>attention to this, and you got an old president who

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<v Speaker 2>might not be completely with it mentally. Why wouldn't that.

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<v Speaker 4>Have a lot of reasons. One is that China's growth

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<v Speaker 4>right now is very low, and if they take Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to be a disaster for Chinese growth. You

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<v Speaker 4>destroy companies that they do a lot of business with,

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<v Speaker 4>not least of which TSMC, one of the most important

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<v Speaker 4>strategic companies in the world with all the semiconductors, and

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<v Speaker 4>they don't get the high level semiconductors, so they get

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<v Speaker 4>everything else there. So that's key. Secondly, militarily, this is

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<v Speaker 4>an amphibious assault. It's over one hundred miles away from

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<v Speaker 4>China mainland China. I'm not sure they'd be able to

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<v Speaker 4>do it militarily right now. Certainly that's the view of

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<v Speaker 4>people that focus on this a lot more closely than

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<v Speaker 4>I do. And so I would be shocked to see

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<v Speaker 4>a sudden, sudden military attack by the Chinese against Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 4>And you know, this is a time when China has

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<v Speaker 4>been sending signals that they want to work more closely

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<v Speaker 4>with the United States. You know, they just met with

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<v Speaker 4>Chuck Schumer and a bipartisan group of senators for eighty minutes.

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<v Speaker 4>Chuck Schumer's wife won't meet with him for eighty minutes,

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<v Speaker 4>so you know, I mean, the fact that Chijin thing

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<v Speaker 4>did that in the run up to the Apex summit

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<v Speaker 4>with Biden next month, I mean, does show that they

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<v Speaker 4>are trying to normalize relations a little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>And it sounds like you have some insight into the

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<v Speaker 2>Schumer marriage that maybe we'll ask you about the future.

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<v Speaker 4>God. Yeah, yeah, that's a longer conversation.

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<v Speaker 3>Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group. A final thought, Ian,

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<v Speaker 3>and feel free to lead your next newsletter with this.

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<v Speaker 3>There is no way Joe Biden will be the candidate

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<v Speaker 3>of the Democratic Party for president next November. Zero chance.

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<v Speaker 3>If you bet me one hundred dollars up against both

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<v Speaker 3>of my femurs, I would take that bet. Go ahead, printed,

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<v Speaker 3>I'll do it.

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<v Speaker 4>I will bet you that I want yours.

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<v Speaker 5>I want yours, I want you.

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<v Speaker 4>Had interest in yours, but I would definitely want them.

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<v Speaker 3>Hang them on your wall is a trophy, That's fine.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm that confident.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, Biden's de nominee.

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<v Speaker 5>There is no plan b I mean look, I mean

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<v Speaker 5>I don't understand the fact is it's thirteen months away,

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<v Speaker 5>and my crystal ball tells me that he will be

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<v Speaker 5>thirteen months older in thirteen months, and that is a

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<v Speaker 5>big deal.

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<v Speaker 4>That is non negligible. But the president wants to run.

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<v Speaker 4>Everyone around him recognizes that, and until that changes, there

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<v Speaker 4>is no other nominee. So, I mean, look, I think

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<v Speaker 4>that everyone out there would like the Americans to punt

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<v Speaker 4>the election to twenty twenty eight. Yeah, and then you'll

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<v Speaker 4>have two different candidates, but that is not where we are.

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<v Speaker 2>God, twenty four is going to be a crazy year.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sure we'll be.

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<v Speaker 4>Talking a lot. I'm excited about this.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, get that Hunsky ready for me. Ian Bremmer always

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<v Speaker 3>great to talk you and thanks.

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<v Speaker 4>Very good guys.

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, he's excited about your femurs, Armstrong and Getty